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2. MIRAGE Model Documentation Version 2.0
- Author:
- Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Christophe Gouel, Houssein Guimbard, Cristina Mitaritonna, Balthazar de Vaulchier, and Yu Zheng
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- MIRAGE is a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, initially devoted to trade policy analysis and more recently applied to long-term growth and environmental issues. It incorporates energy, carbon pricing, imperfect competition, and rigid investment allocation, in a sequential dynamic setup where installed capital is assumed to be immobile. The model provides trade analysis with detailed treatment of trade costs and Armington specifications, drawing upon a detailed measure of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database. Production features nested CES functions with capital-energy bundles under both perfect and imperfect competition frameworks, while final demand follows a LES-CES utility function. The sequential dynamic framework enables longterm simulations by combining total factor productivity calibration with macroeconomic projections from the MaGE model. The most recent version offers significant improvements in electricity sector modeling with renewable energy representation, base-load and peak-load dinstinctions, and detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounting with carbon market mechanisms. This documentation provides complete technical specifications, calibration procedures, and implementation guidelines for researchers and policymakers using MIRAGE for economic policy analysis.
- Topic:
- Environment, Trade Policy, Carbon Emissions, MIRAGE, and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Energy Data Spaces and Market Power: a new challenge for data sovereignty and its governance
- Author:
- Emanuele Giovannetti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- This paper examines how the digitalisation of energy markets, driven by smart meter data and Energy Data Spaces, is reshaping competition in retail electricity services. It analyses the implications for market power, consumer outcomes, and data sovereignty, highlighting the regulatory challenges posed by data-driven business models that operate across national boundaries.
- Topic:
- Markets, Governance, Regulation, Digitalization, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
4. Variables of War
- Author:
- Lutz Unterseher
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- This essay argues that wars do not result from immutable human nature but from political motives, cultural dispositions, and calculations of military opportunity. Wars are, therefore, preventable. The essay presents a succinct causal model of war’s outbreak. The formal causal argument: War’s outbreak is treated as the dependent variable; the independent variable is a mix of expansionist or preventive motives and a supportive war culture that glorifies offensive action and soldierly virtues (the “cult of the offensive”). Because such motives and cultures often do not lead to war, a further “sufficient condition” is posited: leaders must judge that a rapid victory is feasible, casualties acceptable, and domestic opposition manageable, typically by identifying structural vulnerabilities or “open flanks” in the opponent’s posture. This feasibility variable is an intermediate link between motives/culture and war and is filtered through perceptions often distorted by ideology, institutional dysfunction, or poor intelligence.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, War, Deterrence, Armed Conflict, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. How IPLCs Can Leverage BRICS for Inclusive Environmental Governance
- Author:
- Metolo Foyet
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs)face a pivotal chance to influence the emerging governance architecture of the BRICS+ alliance.Western-led frameworks (UNFCCC, CBD) recognize Indigenous rights but still struggle withimplementation. BRICS, representing over half the world’s population and major biodiversity,offers an alternative platform to advance plural knowledge systems and South–South solidarity. This brief proposes embedding Indigenous leadership within BRICS institutions, aligning newnorms with UNDRIP and ILO 169, and creating financial and knowledge instruments that sustaincommunity-led conservation. The goal is shared sovereignty in environmental decision-making,not token participation. The central question is whether BRICS can evolve from a geopolitical and financial bloc into a rights-based governance platform where IPLCs become co-architects ofglobal environmental policy, and whether multipolar governance can close implementation gapsby embedding Indigenous authority at the design stage.
- Topic:
- Environment, Governance, Indigenous, BRICS, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
6. The means of prediction and the production function of AI
- Author:
- Maximilian Kasy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
- Abstract:
- The real AI governance challenge: Who gets to decide what AI systems optimize for? Current debates miss that AI conflicts are between different groups of people, not humans vs. machines. Power flows from control of AI inputs: Those who control the means of prediction (data, computing power, expertise, and energy) determine AI objectives. Current governance approaches fail: Individual privacy rights and market mechanisms can’t address AI’s collective harms and benefits. Democratic control is the solution: Give stakeholders affected by AI decisions a voice in setting AI objectives.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, and Prediction
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. Structural dependencies and choke points in GVCs: An industry-level analysis
- Author:
- Robert Stehrer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- Global value chains (GVCs) are intricate international networks in which the production and distribution of goods and services across multiple economies and industries is coordinated. Their complexity introduces strategic dependencies when economies or industries rely heavily on a limited number of foreign suppliers. Such dependencies can also create additional vulnerabilities, particularly at choke points (i.e. key links or nodes in the chain) whose disruption – whether due to political instability and geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, pandemics or policy shocks and trade restrictions – can halt production. This study builds on previous research by examining two factors: (i) size dependencies arising when an importing economy-industry pair relies largely on the inputs of a partner economies, and (ii) choke dependencies, where imports from one economy pass through another, creating potential choke points. Choke dependency is particularly concerning, as disruptions in the choke economy can impact not only its direct exports but also the flow of goods from other suppliers. Using the multi-country input-output tables (MC IOTs), this study introduces two indicators to assess dependencies: (i) ‘size dependency’, based on the share of an economy-industry’s foreign output sourced from a specific partner, and (2) ‘choke dependency’, based on the pass-through frequency (ptf) indicator, which reveals how often inputs from third economies are routed through a particular partner. An economy-industry pair is considered dependent if it meets thresholds for size dependency, choke dependency or both. This comprehensive approach aims to offer a deeper understanding of systemic vulnerabilities in global trade networks.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Global Value Chains, Vulnerability, Dependency, and Choke Points
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8. Criterios para una fiscalidad saludable: Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar
- Author:
- Julio César Muñiz Pérez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar La forma en que compramos y consumimos alimentos está cambiando, y la fiscalidad se ha convertido en una importante herramienta para promover la salud pública. Sin embargo, ¿Está funcionando adecuadamente la tributación actual sobre la alimentación? Recientemente hemos publicado un informe que analiza cómo debe diseñarse una «fiscalidad saludable» que sea verdaderamente efectiva, coherente con la normativa europea y justa para el consumidor. Lo que descubrirás en este informe: Ingredientes, no productos: Por qué habría que poner el acento en el “ingrediente objetivo” y no en penalizar categorías completas de alimentos. El IVA como mejor alternativa: Las ventajas de usar tramos de IVA diferenciados según el etiquetado, frente al empleo impuestos especiales. Evidencia vs. Recaudación: La necesidad de evaluar si estas medidas son eficaces para mejorar la salud o si solo generan un rechazo social. El papel de la industria: Cómo la colaboración y la innovación (I+D+i) pueden ser tanto o más eficaces que la simple aplicación de impuestos
- Topic:
- Political Science, Legislation, Public Policy, Public Health, Sugar, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9. Universidad dual: Formación innovativa para el futuro profesional
- Author:
- Vicent Climent-Ferrando
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- El dinámico mercado laboral actual exige una formación universitaria más ágil y relevante. A menudo, la evolución curricular de las universidades no sigue el ritmo de la innovación empresarial, generando una brecha entre la academia y las necesidades del sector productivo. La Universidad Dual surge como una solución clave, integrando la formación académica con la experiencia práctica en empresas. Este modelo no solo impulsa la actualización de los currículos, sino que también eleva la empleabilidad de los estudiantes al ofrecerles un entorno de aprendizaje real y aplicado. Sin embargo, su implementación presenta desafíos importantes: asegurar la calidad educativa, invertir en la capacitación del personal docente en las empresas y garantizar el equilibrio entre el estudio y el trabajo para los estudiantes. Desde Fundación Alternativas, abordamos estos retos. Presentamos un Policy Paper y una jornada de debate dedicados a analizar en profundidad el modelo de formación dual universitaria. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar su estado actual y proponer recomendaciones de política pública que faciliten su adopción progresiva, minimizando los riesgos asociados a esta transformación.
- Topic:
- Education, Markets, Labor Issues, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
10. Myths of Modern History: From the French Revolution to the 20th Century World Wars and the Cold War
- Author:
- Klevis Kolasi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Abstract:
- Jacques R. Pauwels’ Myths of Modern History offers a bold and accessible critique of the dominant narratives shaping our understanding of modern history, from the French Revolution to the present. As the culmination of the author’s acclaimed trilogy (The Great Class War 1914–1918, The Myth of the Good War, and Big Business and Hitler), this work provides a concise counter-history of twelve key events, analyzed in twelve chapters, that have helped define the modern world. Pauwels deconstructs myths perpetuated by the media, elites, and conventional historiography —myths that promote a sanitized and benevolent view of capitalism’s role. In doing so, he challenges readers to reconsider historical processes and their systemic causes.
- Topic:
- Cold War, War, History, Capitalism, Book Review, and French Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
11. Digital labor opportunities and (im)mobility: steps for making digital remote work a global possibility
- Author:
- Charles Martin-Shields
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief offers advice for making digital remote work a viable solution to fill labor gaps without requiring workers to physically relocate. From a technology standpoint, there is no reason someone who does computer-based work must physically relocate, assuming they have the required job skills and internet connectivity. The increased use of bilateral labor agreements (BLAs) between countries is evidence that there are major skills gaps and global competition for labor. Indeed, a BLA can serve as a “policy sandbox” where governments negotiate the legal and statutory terms of digital remote work. Digital remote work can be an especially useful solution when the country providing labor has a large pool of people who are willing to work and fill labor pool gaps in countries of employment, but for different legal or personal reasons cannot relocate across borders. This latter point is no small thing: there is a significant body of migration research showing that the majority of people are not interested in moving across borders – or in the case of many refugees are unable to do so. The reasons for this are myriad. Digital labor could be a workaround to meet basic labor demand and facilitate economic inclusion. The word “could” is critical because banking, social and health insurance, and taxation, all of which are components of legal employment, remain bordered. This policy brief will focus on a specific case from research on urban refugee livelihoods where the worker was able to work digitally in the US from Malaysia, while being subject to social security, taxation and insurance in the US The idiosyncrasies in this case help point to spaces for reforming social security, tax and insurance rules to reduce their “bordered-ness” and make digital work more systematically viable. Key policy messages: • To make digital remote work viable at scale, development cooperation agencies should play a key facilitator role, linking relevant authorities in the tax, social insurance and banking regulation sectors. This is especially important for refugees who often cannot move and who fall outside the protection of host country labor laws. These reforms could, for example, be built into BLAs. • Achieving inclusive economic development goals via digital employment would require that remote workers earn competitive salaries. Thus, there would need to be buy-in from the private sector regarding wage competitiveness for workers in different countries, as well as a role for unions and civil society in negotiating digital remote work policy. • While digital work can enable greater economic and labor participation for workers who cannot relocate for jobs, there are still sectors that require physical presence. Thus, digital remote work is not a replacement for immigration policy that facilitates safe and flexible migration for those people who do have to move.
- Topic:
- Development, Labor Issues, Employment, Remote Work, and Digital Employment
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
12. Competencies to help shape a changing world: tracer study and future focus of the IDOS Postgraduate Program for Sustainability Cooperation
- Author:
- Simone Christ, Sven Grimm, Tülin Engin-Stock, and Isabella Schulz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The Postgraduate Program for Sustainability Cooperation (PGP) at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS, formerly DIE) has been training young professionals for German and European international cooperation since 1965. How successful is the program in supporting its graduates in starting their career and in developing their competencies? And what direction should Germany take in the future in its training for professionals in the field of international cooperation? To mark its 60th anniversary, IDOS conducted a tracer study to systematically analyze how the program has benefited its some 1,000 graduates and to find some pointers on how it could be developed further. The study very clearly demonstrates the relevance of the postgraduate program and identification with the program over the past 60 years. The feedback confirms that the PGP considerably benefits participants' professional and personal development and that they would definitely recommend it for future generations. At the same time, the world is undergoing a period of radical upheaval. Fundamental changes can be seen above all in the general conditions for partnerships, the demands made of staff working in this sector and training for future experts and managers. Training programs such as the PGP must adapt to address these drastic changes. The quality of a training program is ultimately reflected in how well it promotes basic competencies that will still be useful under different conditions and that can help shape these changes. IDOS graduates were also asked about their views on changes in working in the international cooperation sector. The survey thus allows conclusions to be drawn on how training can be developed further: 1. Training should promote various competencies that can shape cooperation for sustainable development. Taking a partner-oriented approach to initiating and implementing changes in an increasingly complex world requires both specialist and systemic knowledge along with personal, social, networking and cooperation skills. 2. Training institutions should promote the capacity for cooperation through joint learning with international partners. This will foster understanding for other perspectives and will support the ongoing development of partnerships. 3. Post-colonial perspectives and a critical examination of power should already be taken into account during training and should be put into practice in concrete cooperation between organizations. IDOS graduates also believe that these aspects are becoming more important in international cooperation.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, Training, and Sustainable Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
13. Genocide and the Courts: A Brief Review of Jurisprudence on the Crime of Genocide from Nuremberg to Today
- Author:
- David J. Scheffer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- In this January 2026 report, Genocide and the Courts: A Brief Review of Jurisprudence on the Crime of Genocide from Nuremberg to Today, Ambassador David Scheffer narrates how courts around the world, and over decades, have understood the crime of genocide. Published 80 years after the start of the Nuremberg trials, this report takes readers through court judgments that have grappled with questions of intent, protected groups, prohibited acts, and individual and state responsibility. We hope that teachers, students, and others will benefit from this concise summary of how courts have addressed questions about the definition of genocide over time. Over the past eight decades, “genocide” has gone from being an idea in Raphael Lemkin’s mind to being a universally recognized international crime, accompanied by a growing body of jurisprudence. Judicial rulings have been a critical means of addressing ambiguities about the definition of genocide that are found in the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Courts have gone a long way toward clarifying, for example, what must be established to find that a genocidal “intent to destroy” has been present. Reviewing the history of how courts have ruled on genocide cases, is therefore an important way to promote greater understanding of the meaning of this singular crime. The report begins with the Nuremberg trials—where judgments regarding Nazi war crimes and crimes against humanity during the Holocaust laid a foundation for future understanding of genocide—and the United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, which codified the crime. Mass atrocities in the second half of the 20th century devastated millions, from Cambodia and Guatemala to Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and the report describes how trials grappling with those crimes refocused our understanding of genocide. As important as understanding past jurisprudence around genocide is, Ambassador Scheffer makes clear that it does not supplant the importance of working to prevent and effectively respond to genocide. We hope that this resource will not only deepen readers’ understanding of genocide but also inspire people to rededicate themselves to ending this horrible scourge.
- Topic:
- Genocide, International Law, Courts, Holocaust, Jurisprudence, and Nuremberg
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
14. Quantum Technologies and the Geostrategic Landscape: Implications for Finance and Central Banks
- Author:
- Tracey Forrest, Paul Samson, S. Yash Kalash, and Michael P. A. Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Quantum technologies, and quantum computing in particular, could completely reshape the integrity of today’s financial markets. Both through risk and opportunity channels, quantum computing is changing the game and raising the stakes. Cracking today’s cryptographic standards would undermine global payment systems and digital assets, causing the potential collapse of all current encryption systems, while quantum-enabled advances in optimization and modelling may dramatically enhance economic forecasting, monetary policy and planning. “Quantum readiness” is the next necessary step for any nation wanting to both stay safe from these projected dangers and also to make the most of the potential benefits. This special report aims to provide a situational analysis of quantum technologies useful for senior G7 (and beyond) decision makers in finance and central banking. By examining the current landscape, as well as several scenarios, the authors outline key implications for strategic planning and action for consideration by policy leaders around the world. They structure their suggested priority interventions across three tiers: national, international and public-private collaboration, with actionable recommendations across each level.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Banking, Financial Governance, and Quantum Computing
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
15. Intellectual Property Amid Trade Tensions
- Author:
- Jeremy de Beer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Intellectual property (IP) is a key asset in the modern economy, and just like any asset, it’s influencing trade flows, investment, and economic value, especially as digital and intangible transactions grow. It’s often said that Canada is facing an IP trade deficit, but that claim is seldom documented statistically. CIGI Senior Fellow Jeremy de Beer changes that in this special report, building a stronger evidence base for IP-related trade policy. Through examining three possible scenarios for the future of IP as a trade asset (rebalancing, renegotiation and restructuring), the report identifies four strategic priorities for Canada to consider: strengthening Canada’s statistical evidence base for IP policy making; using domestic and international legal flexibilities responsibly and in coordination with allies; reclaiming policy space in trade negotiations; and recalibrating innovation and industrial policy at home.
- Topic:
- Intellectual Property/Copyright, Economy, Trade, and Transactions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
16. The Humanitarian Emergency Dilemma: Exploring the Consequences of Financial Cuts on Relief Efforts and At-Risk Communities
- Author:
- Calistus Abang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- Funding freezes are one of the challenges prominent in the humanitarian world today, with grave consequences for programs aiding people in urgent need and beyond. Using critical discourse analysis, this study looks at the paradox of the humanitarian crisis and funding freeze, drawing on secondary data. Qualitative analysis of aid funding data, including funding in need, shows how the freeze affects the disbursement of funds and their intended recipients. It becomes visibly apparent that the freeze has multifaceted effects: stripping power from the already powerless, belittling the capacities of the neglected, pausing a system that is undermined, and hastening an erosion of trust in the institution of humanitarianism. Disproportionately, the system greatly impacts the most vulnerable, which suggests it is anything but neutral. This study confronts the glaring paradox and discusses its far-reaching implications. These implications concerning research, policy, programming, and humanitarianism paradox will, in the end, save lives.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Vulnerability, and Funding Freeze
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17. Nature-based Solutions for a Sustainable Critical Minerals Value Chain
- Author:
- Lara Fornabaio, Sara Saloum, Perrine Toledano, and Kirsten Hund
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Critical minerals production is essential for a net-zero future yet mining land footprint overlaps with sensitive ecosystems: of the sector’s 101,583 square kilometers of mining concessions, 7% are in biodiversity hotspots, 8% are in protected areas, and 16% are in “wilderness” areas of high ecological integrity. The value chains of mining operations “both depend on and impact nature” (ICMM, 2024), creating a responsibility for mining actors to manage and mitigate the impacts of operations on the landscape. This responsibility includes addressing nature loss, supporting the well-being of communities, and contributing to the resilience of ecosystems. Nature-based solutions (NbS), which are based on the idea that healthy ecosystems deliver valuable services to society, offer one method of working towards these goals
- Topic:
- Mining, Sustainability, Value Chains, Net Zero, Critical Minerals, and Sustainable Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
18. Sufficiency for All - Exploring Small-Scale, Low-Tech, Pro-Poor Initiatives
- Author:
- John Donaldson and Nick Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- February 19, 2026 — Professor John Donaldson discusses an alternative “small works” approach to poverty reduction that highlights slower, more sustainable growth and challenges dominant assumptions about scale, technology, and well-being. Speaker: John Donaldson, Associate Professor of Political Science at the School of Social Sciences, Singapore Management University (SMU), researches politics, rural development and poverty reduction in China and around the world. He primarily focuses on the disconnect between economic growth and poverty reduction, as well as sustainable poverty reduction. In addition to numerous other academic and policy publications, he is the author of "Small Works: Poverty and Economic Development in Southwestern China" (Cornell University Press, 2011). Moderator: Nick Smith, Assistant Professor of Architecture and Urban Studies, Barnard College.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Science and Technology, Economic Growth, Well-Being, and Sustainable Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
19. AI and Democracy: Mapping the Intersections
- Author:
- Rachel George and Ian Klaus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- AI poses substantial threats and opportunities for democracy in an important year ahead for global democracy. Despite the threats, AI technologies can also improve representative politics, citizen participation, and governance. AI influences democracy through multiple entry points, including elections, citizen deliberation, government services, and social cohesion, all of which are influenced by geopolitics and security. All of these domains, mapped in this paper, face threats related to influence, integrity, and bias, yet also present opportunities for targeted interventions. The current field of interventions at the intersection of AI and democracy is diverse, fragmented, and boutique. Not all AI interventions with the potential to influence democracy are framed as “democracy work,” demonstrating the imperative for democracy advocates to widen the rhetorical aperture and to continue to map, identify, and scale interventions. Diverse actors who are relevant to the connections between AI and democracy require tailored expertise and guardrails to maximize benefits and reduce harms. We present four prominent constellations of actors who operate at the AI–democracy intersection: policy-led, technology-enabled; politics-led, technology-enabled; civil society–led, technology-enabled; and technology-led, policy-deployed. Though each brings advantages, policy-led and technology-led interventions tend to have access to resources and innovation capacity in ways that enable more immediate and sizable impacts.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Democracy, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
20. This Warming Planet Should Learn How to Talk About Migration
- Author:
- Alejandro Martin Rodriguez
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The places where people can live—with or without dignity—are changing. Extreme heat, droughts, floods, coastal erosion, and sea level rise, among other climate impacts, are reducing the area of the human climate niche, that is, the part of the world most suited for human life. Regardless of how much societies reduce their carbon dioxide emissions today, the locked-in effects of climate change will continue to impact them for decades, if not centuries. In this context, the World Bank estimates that more than 200 million people globally could be forced to leave their homes by 2050. Governments all over the world must design and deliver effective policy responses to the risks associated with this large-scale movement of people. However, policymakers are limited in their options by the prevalence of misinformed narratives on migration (see box 1) that can make the sensible policy paths seem unattainable.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Migration, Mobility, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
21. Getting Debt Sustainability Analysis Right: Eight Reforms for the Framework for Low-Income Countries
- Author:
- C. Randall Henning
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Assessing the sustainability of developing countries’ debt is an essential task of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, but it is also a controversial one. The two institutions are currently reviewing the debt sustainability framework for low-income countries (abbreviated as LIC-DSF). This paper provides a primer on the framework’s basic elements, an overview of critiques from a variety of perspectives, and analysis of selected issues, including the endogeneity of analysis of sustainability, analysis of debtors’ institutional strength, analysis of domestic political conditions, role and exercise of staff judgment, and collaboration between the World Bank and the IMF. The paper recommends eight improvements, including streamlining the institutional indicators, better separating economic analysis from political judgment, adopting certain procedures for applying judgment, and selectively introducing climate considerations.
- Topic:
- Debt, World Bank, Sustainability, IMF, and Global Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
22. The migration debate on the streets: Four key things to know from global data on protests
- Author:
- Kieran Doyle and Ciro Murillo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown has sent shockwaves across the United States. Far-reaching detention operations across the country led by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents have sparked thousands of anti-ICE and pro-migrant protests. In early January 2026, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) massively expanded “Operation Metro Surge” in Minnesota, making it the agency’s largest-ever operation. Within three weeks, federal migration enforcement officers shot and killed two people in incidents that were recorded from multiple angles by bystanders in videos that quickly went viral. These shootings inflamed already heightened tensions between demonstrators and law enforcement agents and triggered hundreds of anti-ICE protests across the country. As the operation continues despite Trump’s promise of “de-escalation,” and amid a fresh ICE operation in Maine, it’s clear that the fight over migration in the US is far from finished.1 The situation in the United States is not unique – these protests represent a fraction of the larger picture of demonstrations over migration worldwide. ACLED records migration-related demonstrations in over 75 countries since the beginning of 2025. From peaceful demonstrations to episodes of violence perpetrated by radical groups, sentiments toward migration manifest differently across regional and political contexts. ACLED’s protest data provide four key insights on surges in pro- and anti-migration mobilization. These findings reflect how migration demonstrations are a global phenomenon – albeit much more concentrated in major destination countries – and point to how migration and migration crackdowns play a role in polarizing societies around the world.
- Topic:
- Migration, Protests, Political Extremism, and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
23. GR&P Seminar: The Impact of Global Change on Food Trade Vulnerability and Food Security
- Author:
- Kenneth Strzepek and Gregory Sixt
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- International food trade has become essential for global food security, with over 40% of staple foods traded internationally. However, interconnected food networks are vulnerable to climatic, economic, and geopolitical shocks. This event will discuss the new MIT Jameel Index for Food Trade and Vulnerability, a comprehensive index linking food trade exposure to national resilience. Developed to inform evidence-based policymaking, the Jameel Index offers new insights into which countries are most at risk from disruptions in food trade and how global food systems can be strengthened. The seminar will present findings from projections of economic, population, and climate change impacts on food trade vulnerability for 2035 and 2050, and discuss their policy implications for addressing growing food insecurity in a volatile geopolitical and climate landscape. Kenneth Strzepek, PhD, is a Climate, Water, and Food Specialist and a Research Scientist at the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy. He is also Professor Emeritus of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Boulder at Colorado. He has worked for a range of national governments as well as the United Nations, the World Bank, and the USAID. Additionally, he holds research appointments at the International Food Policy Research Institute and at the University of Pretoria, South Africa. Gregory Sixt, PhD, directs the Food and Climate Systems Transformation (FACT) Alliance, an MIT Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab (J-WAFS)-led global network of leading research institutions and stakeholder organizations working to shorten the link between research and action. He also serves as Research Manager for Food and Climate Systems on various J-WAFS projects. Previously, he worked at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture.
- Topic:
- Food Security, Geopolitics, Trade, Supply Chains, and Vulnerability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
24. The Renewed Promise of Hegemony
- Author:
- Sean Burges and Fabricio H. Chagas-Bastos
- Publication Date:
- 07-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Contemporary world order exhibits interdependence without a single state able to impose ordering principles unilaterally and without the hegemonic war often presumed to clear the slate. Scholarship conflates dominant power with the order it sponsors, so criticism of the liberal international order (LIO) is read as an attack on primacy. This article theorises hegemony, in Gramscian terms, as a relational ordering structure that fuses coercion, political economy, and ideas, and that endures through absorption and co-option of dissent. Challenges are incorporated through selective concessions and institutional redesign, diluting their transformative content while reiterating core principles. Our argument decouples power transition from order transition, moving debate beyond collapse versus persistence by advancing an analytically tractable account of adaptive endurance that shows how hegemonic orders renew themselves through the managed incorporation of critique into institutional reform.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Hegemony, Liberal Order, International Order, and Interdependence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
25. Ecological Federalism: Ethical Frameworks for Domestic Climate Migration
- Author:
- Preston Ferraiuolo and Kate Voltz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Moving from international climate migration to domestic climate migration within the United States, this brief argues that intensifying climate risks will increasingly motivate internal relocation. It develops a framework of ecological federalism that calls for institutionalized resettlement systems, support for communities to migrate together where possible, and protections for original residents in receiving communities.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Migration, Resettlement, and Ecological Federalism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
26. Gender and intergenerational mobility: Unequal economic outcomes between siblings
- Author:
- Martín Leites and Joan Vilá
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the role of sibling sex composition as a potential explanation of the transmission of parental advantages to the next generation. The presence of a brother affects the family environment and parents’ decisions, influencing the siblings’ labour market outcomes in the long term. The results show a negative effect of approximately 2% on the permanent income of women for the presence of a younger brother. This effect does not modify the intergenerational persistence of income. Regarding mechanisms, we find evidence that the effect is amplified when households face tighter budget constraints. Moreover, it is more pronounced in households with traditional gender norms, shaping permanent income, educational choices, and motherhood decisions. These findings underscore the importance of sociocultural mechanisms in accounting for the persistence of inequality.
- Topic:
- Occupation, Gender Norms, Social Mobility, Gender Wage Gap, Sibling Sex Composition, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
27. Standardizing carbon accounting worldwide with a single, robust, cost-effective system
- Author:
- Vincent Aussilloux, Yann Coatanlem, and Karthik Ramanna
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Developed economies aren’t just underinvesting in the climate transition—they are missing the mark by an order of magnitude. Because green financing is often characterized as underperforming, the capital they do deploy rarely reaches the projects or regions where it’s needed most. But decarbonization doesn’t have to be a synonym for “high risk.” The key to unlocking high-impact, high-return investment lies in better risk management. Measuring a project’s carbon footprint with greater accuracy will mitigate the guesswork that keeps capital on the sidelines. The authors advocate for the Climate Club, an intergovernmental decarbonization forum, to select a single, robust, and cost-effective method for computing products’ carbon footprint. The framework would provide the rigor required to significantly scale climate finance and drive energy security.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Climate Finance, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, Energy, Energy Transition, and Energy Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
28. Commentary: Democracy, Democratization, Institutions, and Inequality: Nobel-Winning Insights from Daron Acemoglu and His Collaborators
- Author:
- Ali Resul Usul
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the seminal contributions of Daron Acemoglu and his collaborators to the understanding of democracy, democratization, institutions, and inequality, as recognized by the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. It delves into the stability and erosion of democratic institutions, emphasizing the interplay between historical legacies, class structures, and strategic political interactions. The analysis synthesizes insights from rational choice theory, historical institutionalism, and comparative political economy, highlighting the critical role of both formal and informal institutions in shaping political outcomes. Key concepts such as critical junctures, path dependence, and the dynamic balance between state capacity and societal power— termed the “Red Queen effect”—are examined to explain the persistence and transformation of political regimes. The paper also addresses the implications of economic inequality for democratic stability and the continuous process of adaptation required to maintain inclusive institutions. By integrating theoretical perspectives and empirical evidence, this work provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the complex dynamics of democratization and offers policy recommendations for strengthening democratic resilience in the face of contemporary challenges.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Path Dependence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29. Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026
- Author:
- Jessica Anania, Vicka Heidt, Anna Tuohey, and Jessica M. Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
- Abstract:
- Entering 2026, the global security landscape is defined by record-high levels of armed conflict, democratic backsliding, geopolitical fragmentation, and an accelerating climate crisis—dynamics unfolding alongside unprecedented cuts to foreign aid and development assistance. These converging pressures are reshaping conflict environments in ways that disproportionately endanger women and girls while eroding the systems meant to protect them, even as women remain central actors in humanitarian response, peacebuilding, and civic resistance. Women, Peace and Security: Conflicts and Trends to Watch in 2026 integrates gender-responsive analysis into conflict forecasting by drawing on insights from the Women, Peace and Security Conflict Tracker and expert consultations. This report identifies three cross-cutting trends expected to shape conflict dynamics in the year ahead: the increasing weaponization of hunger as a tactic of conquest and control, with devastating gendered consequences; political transitions that intensify repression, violence, and women’s exclusion at critical decision-making moments; and worsening climate shocks that compound displacement, insecurity, and economic loss for women and girls. The report also profiles 10 settings—Colombia, Ethiopia, Iran, Israel & Palestine, Mali, Pakistan, South Sudan, Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela—where these dynamics are likely to be especially acute in 2026. By centering gendered risks as early warning indicators of instability, this report addresses a critical gap in mainstream conflict analysis and offers policymakers, donors, multilateral institutions, and civil society leaders a more inclusive framework for anticipating crises, protecting civilians, and advancing more durable and inclusive peace and security outcomes.
- Topic:
- Security, Women, Armed Conflict, Inclusion, Democratic Backsliding, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Iran, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, Colombia, Palestine, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan, and Global Focus
30. Advancing Accountability in Development Finance: The Sandra Smithey Fellowship
- Author:
- Rachel Nadelman and Anushka Bose
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
- Abstract:
- The Sandra N. Smithey Fellowship for Equity and Accountability in International Development was created to honor the career of Sandra Smithey, particularly her legacy in amplifying frontline voices that champion transparent and accountable approaches to development finance. Between 2023 and 2025, the Smithey Fellowship, administered by the Accountability Research Center (ARC) at American University, provided support to eight advocates advancing accountability in development finance. The central premise of the Fellowship is that accountability work is most effective when driven by those directly affected by development decisions and supported by flexible, trust-based funding. ARC worked with each of the fellows to define their own strategic goals and approaches within the time or resources available, seeking to ensure that each could meet the most pressing opportunities or challenges they faced. It provided them with significant flexibility to make mid-course changes to respond to political realities on the ground. The philosophy of “putting the fellows first” resulted in eight bespoke fellowships that reflected the breadth of civil society efforts to promote community- and context-based accountability in international development finance. Across these experiences, several key lessons emerge: Flexibility is a foundation for impact and sustainability. When fellows were given space to adapt to rapidly changing contexts, they achieved outcomes that rigid programs might have constrained. Altering conventional fellowship designs can change the balance in north-south knowledge hierarchies. An adaptable fellowship structure enabled some fellows to pursue their projects whilst embedded in their local communities, accessing support where their work was already taking shape. Translating knowledge can enable power shifts. Fellows who converted technical or bureaucratic language into practical tools enabled communities to engage institutions on their own terms. Collaboration is a vehicle for continuity of both projects and relationships. Collaboration among mentors, allies, and civil society organizations extended the reach of individual projects and embedded learning in broader movements. Longer-term influence depended on intentional efforts to maintain networks, communication, and financial stability after formal support ended. Enabling frontline expertise to shape accountability narratives can effectively support existing movements for rights and remedy. The fellows demonstrated that it is those closest to injustice that have the insight and credibility to define what accountability should mean in their own contexts as a basis for transformative change. This Accountability Note describes the work of these fellows and explores how a targeted package of direct funding, reflecting the fellows’ priorities and accompanied by trusted partners, enabled them to respond effectively to new and changing conditions. Ultimately, the Smithey Fellowship demonstrated that modest, well-structured support, grounded in trust, autonomy, and solidarity, can enable progress towards accountability and enable advocates to define and pursue their own paths in building durable movements for justice.
- Topic:
- Accountability, Sustainability, Fellowships, and Development Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
31. The Under-theorisation of Dollar Dominance
- Author:
- Photis Lysandrou
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
- Abstract:
- The recent period has seen an upsurge in predictions that the dollar's international dominance will at some point be challenged by a rival currency, notably the euro. This paper counters these predictions. It argues that the overestimation of the euro's ability to challenge dollar dominance is due to the under-theorisation of the foundations of that dominance, the root problem being macroeconomic theories' tradition of taking the household investor to be the representative investor when it should in reality be an institutional asset manager. If financial securities are viewed through the lens of the institutional investor it becomes clear that there can be no exodus from the dollar because it becomes clear that foreign investors remain attracted to the US capital market for reasons as much to do with its mass and consequent gravitational force as to do with a shortage of securities that can be supplied by other capital markets.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Investment, Macroeconomics, Currency, Dollar, Euro, and Capital Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
32. Contesting and Reassessing the 'Too Much Finance' Hypothesis: A Literature Review
- Author:
- Tania Rojas
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
- Abstract:
- This paper reviews recent contributions that reassess and contest the “too much finance” hypothesis. It surveys a predominantly empirical body of work that, in contrast to earlier studies focused mainly on advanced economies, increasingly incorporates developing and less-developed regions. The evidence reviewed suggests that an inverted-U-shaped relationship between financial development and economic growth is more consistently identified in studies of advanced economies. In contrast, analyses of samples of less-developed countries more frequently report positive linear or U-shaped relationships, pointing to conditions of “too little finance.” The review also documents methodological shifts in the literature, including a growing adoption of nonlinear modeling strategies, the use of alternative measures of financial development, and a greater focus on mediating factors in the finance-growth nexus. The paper concludes that a clear consensus remains elusive. The literature faces persistent methodological challenges, sensitivity to model specification and sample composition, and a prevailing emphasis on empirical estimation rather than theoretical discussion.
- Topic:
- Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Literature Review, and Financial Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
33. Energy Infrastructure and the Defense Industrial Base
- Author:
- Joseph Majkut, Alexander Palmer, and Raj Sawhney
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Can the energy infrastructure serving the U.S. defense industrial base sustain production under mobilization? This paper focuses on three scenarios for mobilization consistent with baseline production, defense buildup, and peer war. Using embodied energy methods, the research team estimates that war production rates would require 17.4 petajoules (PJ) of energy annually, a relatively small amount nationally, but one that would need to be concentrated at facilities in already stressed grid regions. Facilities for the defense-critical production of steel, aluminum, titanium, and semiconductors are clustered in regions already facing eroding reserve margins and surging data center demands. Natural gas deliverability constraints compound these risks, as key facilities depend on gas both as direct fuel and as the primary source of regional electricity generation. This paper recommends extending defense-critical electric infrastructure designations to industrial nodes, creating dedicated permitting and finance pathways to facilitate energy production, and integrating energy resilience into supply chain risk assessments.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Sustainability, and Defense Industry
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
34. The Agency of Middle Powers in a Fragmented and Polarised World
- Author:
- Thomas Greminger
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP)
- Abstract:
- The international system is entering a period of intensified fragmentation and geopolitical polarisation. Competition among China, Russia, and the United States is reshaping the global order and redefining spheres of influence. These dynamics create both challenges and opportunities for middle powers, which must navigate contested spaces where alignment with one great power can generate tensions with others. Middle powers face a delicate balance: they seek to preserve their autonomy, influence multilateral institutions and maintain credibility in international networks, and their choices whether to align with a particular great power, hedge their international relationship bets, or engage in principled diplomacy can either stabilise fragmented regions or amplify systemic competition. Yet debates about the future of the international order tend to focus on great powers and institutional reform, leaving the behaviour of middle powers under-explored. This Policy Brief examines how middle powers can exercise strategic autonomy and influence in a fragmented world. It emphasises behaviour, relational positioning, and policy choices rather than material capacity alone by analysing how middle powers balance principles with pragmatism; manage geography and alignment; and engage in bridge-building, coalition-building, and mediation. It then assesses their capacity to stabilise regional and global orders, support multilateralism, and enhance systemic resilience.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Multilateralism, Strategic Competition, Polarization, and Middle Powers
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, Global Focus, and United States of America
35. Guidelines for Decarbonizing Industry in Time to Meet Global Climate Goals
- Author:
- Chris Bataille, Seton Stiebert, and Francis Li
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Near-term guidance for decarbonizing global industry is needed to ensure it happens on pace to meet Paris Agreement climate goals. Such insights would help industry and financial decision-makers as well as inform government policies meant to support the transition toward lower-carbon energy sources. This report combines a review of country diplomatic commitments, policies, and industrial roadmaps with decarbonization scenarios and new global modeling to suggest timelines, carbon prices, regulations, and lead markets for clean products, to replace unabated fossil fuel–powered industrial facilities and equipment with near-zero carbon emissions alternatives. It also estimates the capital and operating expenditures required, and provides policy options to support these efforts.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Industry, Paris Agreement, and Decarbonization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
36. Nuclear Energy’s New Momentum: Can World Capacity Triple by 2050?
- Author:
- Julius Cesar Imperial Trajano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The second Nuclear Energy Summit highlighted renewed global momentum to expand nuclear power as countries face volatile fossil-fuel supplies amid ongoing Middle East tensions. With governments pledging to triple nuclear capacity by 2050, nuclear energy is once again being positioned as a reliable low-carbon pillar of energy security. However, the speed and credibility of this expansion will ultimately depend not only on financing and technology, but also on regulatory institutions, industrial capacity, and a skilled workforce needed to govern it safely.
- Topic:
- Carbon Emissions, Nuclear Energy, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Global Focus
37. Food Security in ASEAN’s 2026 Agenda: Perspectives on Human Security and Inclusiveness Amidst Crises
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Kayven Tan, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Farmers form the backbone of ASEAN agriculture but are increasingly vulnerable amidst crises and longer-term structural challenges, including ageing, urbanisation, and natural disasters. A human security approach that prioritises these vulnerabilities is integral to resilience.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Natural Disasters, Urbanization, Food Security, Human Security, ASEAN, and Inclusion
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Global Focus
38. The UN Climate Regime and the US Withdrawal
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration announced the US withdrawal from the international climate regime earlier this year. One possible explanation lies in the growing influence of the IPCC’s scientific authority in domestic spheres, which may have altered the perceived costs and benefits of continued participation. Despite the US absence, the UNFCCC remains an important platform for international climate cooperation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Cooperation, United Nations, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
39. Global development policy and the New World Disorder: the Trump Administration's delivery of a high-voltage shockwave to multilateral norms, institutional commitments and long-standing principles
- Author:
- Stephan Klingebiel and Andy Sumner
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Global development policy is a particularly revealing field in which the Trump administration combines crude transactionalism with a high level of ideological commitment, namely an authoritarian libertarianism oriented toward elite interests. This is coupled with, at times, a chaotic absence of tactical or strategic coherence. With Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, a significant phase in international affairs, including global development policy, began. This policy brief traces the evolution of the US approach to development cooperation and exposes how Trump's approach represents an overtly aggressive assault, delivering a high voltage shockwave to global sustainable development policy, undermining multilateral norms, institutional commitments and long-standing principles of international solidarity. The United States (US) has played a decisive role in the conception and evolution of global development policy since the mid-20th century. From the establishment of the post-Second World War order onward, the US shaped the normative, political and organizational foundations of development cooperation, often setting agendas, defining standards, and providing leadership and personnel for key multilateral institutions. Early reconstruction efforts such as the Marshall Plan and the establishment of the World Bank embedded development within a broader framework of power politics, positioning aid as both a tool of reconstruction and geopolitical influence. Since January 2025, US development cooperation has undergone a dramatic rupture. The administration rapidly withdrew from multilateral institutions, cut budgets, and de facto dissolved USAID, transferring residual functions to the State Department. This shift was accompanied by conspiracy narratives and an explicit rejection of multilateral norms, marking a sharp departure from previous Republican and Democratic approaches alike. The brief conceptualises this shift as the emergence of a “New Washington Dissensus”: a model of transactional, nationalist development cooperation that treats aid as an instrument of power rather than a global public good. Under this paradigm, development engagement is ideologically conditional, hostile to climate and equity agendas, oriented toward migration control, and explicitly transactional. The Trump administration's National Security Strategy (December 2025) is consistent with this in the sense that it frames an “America First” approach that narrows US priorities to “core, vital national interests” and places strong emphasis on Western Hemisphere pre-eminence via a stated “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. For global development, foreign assistance and development finance are thus instruments of strategic competition and commercial diplomacy. US agencies are mobilized to back US commercial positioning. The consequences are dramatic and systemic. The US retreat has destabilized the global development architecture and intensified geopolitical fragmentation. For many countries in the Global South, this represents a watershed moment, creating both new room for maneuver and new dependencies as states pursue multi-alignment strategies amid intensifying great-power rivalry. At the same time, humanitarian impacts are severe. Overall, the brief concludes that development policy has entered a new phase, which is narrower, more instrumental and overtly geopolitical,and is reshaping not only US engagement but the future of global development policy itself.
- Topic:
- Development, Multilateralism, Institutions, Norms, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
40. Making global benefits pay: the World Bank reform to support global public goods
- Author:
- Jakob Schwab
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Global public goods (GPGs) are goods that are produced locally but have global effects. GPGs are essential for securing global development. The climate and biodiversity crises, pandemics, as well as fragility, conflict and violence are threatening livelihoods and well-being around the world, and addressing them would have enormous positive economic and social effects. However, the cross-border externalities involved are not being fully taken into account by countries, and hence these GPGs are still underprovided compared with what would be globally optimal. One year ago, the World Bank launched the Framework for Financial Incentives (FFI) to strengthen the support of GPGs in its operations. This novel instrument encourages countries to implement investment projects and policies that have positive spillovers to other countries by offering targeted financial incentives. As a core element of the World Bank's Evolution reform, the FFI reflects the recognition that relatively modest investments in client countries can generate substantial global benefits – for other developing and emerging economies as well as for the Bank's shareholder countries. Its challenges lie in incorporating the non-financial aspects of GPGs and the multi-faceted motivations to provide them in bankable operations. This policy brief discusses the relevance of GPGs for development and presents the World Bank's approach to supporting their provision in client countries through the FFI. The key takeaways are: • GPGs are not all those that are commonly shared or agreed upon as goals but are defined by the specific problem structure that the involved cross-border externalities entail. • Investment in GPGs can generate substantial benefits – not only for developing and emerging economies, but also for high-income countries that make up the World Bank's largest shareholders. Consequently, both out of enlightened self-interest and as a cost-effective way to advance global sustainable development at a time when international development budgets are undergoing significant reductions, shareholder countries should increase their contributions to the FFI. This applies in particular to those provided to the Livable Planet Fund, which provides the essential grant financing for countries' GPG-related projects. • To retain and strengthen confidence among stakeholders, the FFI must deploy its resources efficiently. This implies offering grants only when projects' overall domestic benefits are insufficient to motivate countries to provide GPGs on their own, and extending loans instead when client countries have sufficient self-interest to ensure repayment. The assessment of costs and benefits is complex, but it should improve with experience and become increasingly standardized. To signal its effectiveness, the FFI should pursue full transparency in its allocation decisions and undertake systematic impact assessments.
- Topic:
- Development, World Bank, Reform, and Public Goods
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
41. What do the 2015 SDG negotiations teach us for a beyond-2030 framework?
- Author:
- Paula von Haaren and Axel Berger
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – the global framework establishing 17 universal and interconnected goals to guide sustainable development efforts – was adopted in 2015 following a uniquely participative and ambitious process. A decade on, it is increasingly evident that most of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are unlikely to be achieved by 2030 as originally envisioned. Discussions about a follow-up framework beyond 2030 are gaining momentum ahead of the SDG Summit in September 2027. This paper evaluates the process design, inclusiveness, negotiating strategies, fora and fault lines in 2015 and discusses to what extent the lessons learned can be applied to negotiations for a potential follow-up framework. We find that several process design elements and negotiation strategies, as well as actor composition, fostered trust and ownership, reduced polarization and enabled agreements on ambitious targets. In particular, the process benefited from the inclusion of diverse, non-hierarchical actor communities, a long, science-based stocktaking phase, the breaking up of traditional negotiating blocks, transparency, and emphasis on common interests. We also identify several recurring fault lines that are overwhelmingly still relevant today. Apart from the above best practices of the process leading to the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, we identify several shortcomings that should be addressed in the beyond-2030 negotiations: inefficiencies due to competing tracks for the development of the goals; top-down agenda-setting processes leading to less ambitious outcomes; barriers to participation of and accountability towards some marginalized and informal actors; and the watering down of goals and indicators – including non-tangible targets and unresolved inconsistencies and trade-offs within the agenda. Finally, the paper argues that the beyond-2030 negotiations will take place in a context that is similar to the process that led to the SDGs but is nevertheless in many ways more challenging than in 2015, amidst intensifying crises, political shifts and loss of trust.
- Topic:
- Development and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42. Global Trends in High Debt Levels and Their Macroeconomic Implications
- Author:
- Hongseok Choi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- In response to the unprecedented crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, governments and central banks around the world injected massive fiscal stimulus and liquidity support. These bold policy measures succeeded in averting the worst recession, but, as a consequence, the world is now facing historically high levels of debt. According to the Institute of International Finance, global debt surpassed USD 324 trillion in the first quarter of 2025—roughly three times the size of global GDP and “[a level unseen] since the Napoleonic Wars.” Moreover, global debt increased by USD 7.5 trillion during the same quarter, more than four times the quarterly average increase of USD 1.7 trillion since late 2022, indicating that the global debt problem has worsened rather than eased after the pandemic. Against this backdrop, Choi et al. (2025) reassessed the structure of the post-pandemic high-debt environment, analyzed vulnerabilities across advanced economies, emerging markets, and Korea, and derived policy implications for proactive responses. The purpose of this report is to present their key findings.
- Topic:
- Debt, Macroeconomics, COVID-19, Banking, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
43. A Beast of a Different Kind: Malign Foreign Information Operations
- Author:
- Jordan Miller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Information attacks are their own distinct kind of villain. They have characteristics unlike those of cyberattacks and financial crimes, and need to be addressed with a strategy tailor-made for the kind of threat they pose. As Canada faces growing challenges of many kinds, it does the security operations of Canada a disservice to lump them together with other non-kinetic threats. So what is Canada’s best bet for a comprehensive approach that treats information attacks as their own beast? Jordan Miller illuminates how information attacks are redefining conflict. They move both independently and in tandem with other measures, including military power, and they know no borders. Measures to address the threat must equip the psyche as well as the digital space, as Canada’s allies have identified, and Canada’s approach must seek to understand more aspects of an attacker’s strategy and equip national security against this distinctive beast.
- Topic:
- National Security, Democracy, Foreign Interference, Information Warfare, and Freedom of Thought
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
44. Artificial Intelligence, the Future of War and International Politics
- Author:
- Michael C. Horowitz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Companies, not governments, are at the cutting edge of developing new artificial intelligence (AI) technologies for military use, and regulation needs to keep pace with these advances. Yet geopolitical tension is undermining international cooperation on AI in the military domain. This paper examines opportunities for global cooperation to mitigate the risk of accidents and misuse of these technologies that could lead to escalation. Possible options include establishing an agreement to regulate autonomous systems, mandating human control over nuclear weapons and creating a UN-based institution to oversee responsible military applications of AI.
- Topic:
- National Security, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and International Politics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
45. Advancing Responsible AI Across NATO: Innovation and Interoperability
- Author:
- Ryan Jay Atkinson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- NATO’s first AI strategy from 2021 outlines six guiding principles: lawfulness, responsibility and accountability, explainability and traceability, reliability, governability, and bias mitigation. Together, these principles form the ethical and operational baseline guiding how NATO and its members design, deploy and govern AI in defence contexts. But the world of AI has evolved drastically since 2021. The 2024 strategy was more about practical applications, emphasizing cooperation of non-traditional defence suppliers for AI research and development with industry, academia and national defence agencies. NATO’s evolving AI strategy is part of larger initiatives toward rapid technological adaptation, innovating AI among other priority areas, including autonomous systems, with programs that support responsible AI operationalization scaling rapidly to meet the growing need for fast action on responsible AI use. Allies foster responsible AI developments that benefit from alignment with these NATO strategies and programs, building innovation clusters that are interoperable and interdisciplinary across domains.
- Topic:
- NATO, National Security, Geopolitics, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
46. AI National Security Scenarios
- Author:
- Duncan Cass-Beggs and Matthew da Mota
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- On March 26, 2025, the Global AI Risks Initiative at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Privy Council Office of Canada co-hosted a full-day, in-person scenarios workshop in Ottawa, Ontario, to explore existing and emerging implications for national security posed by next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) systems. This summary report contains policy recommendations that are intended to stimulate and enrich discussion among policy makers and the broader public. It is composed of three parts: an executive summary highlighting key messages drawn from the workshop discussions and background literature; a detailed description of key uncertainties and five possible future AI scenarios and implications considered at the workshop, adapted from the background paper shared with participants in advance of the workshop; and an appendix summarizing key points from the workshop discussion.
- Topic:
- National Security, Governance, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
47. The Fourth Path: Middle-Income Countries and Prosocial AI
- Author:
- Cornelia C. Walther
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- Middle-income countries, home to 75 percent of the global population, have an opportunity to pioneer a prosocial approach to regulating artificial intelligence (AI). Cornelia C. Walther argues that prosocial AI — systems tailored, trained, tested and targeted to advance human well-being and planetary health — offers a framework for these countries to take a fourth path to AI policy that avoids the pitfalls of the three current models and aligns technological development with sustainable and equitable outcomes, embedding these values from the design phase onward. This fourth path demands regional cooperation among middle-income countries to share information on AI policy experiments and their outcomes; build collective capacity; and demonstrate that prosocial innovation can drive both economic competitiveness and human development.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, and Middle-Income Countries
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
48. Lessons from the 2025 G7 Cycle: Quantum, AI and Science Diplomacy
- Author:
- Michael P. A. Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- The 2025 G7 convened at a time of international instability. Nevertheless, its meetings achieved meaningful progress on emerging technologies. The 2025 G7 cycle’s outputs focused on scope, rather than concluding with a wide-ranging statement about geopolitical order, a fundamentally different perspective for middle powers. Michael P. A. Murphy argues that middle powers can use strategies of science diplomacy to navigate the current instability of international relations. Technical aspects of science policy have the potential to facilitate continued cooperation amid growing international tensions, as has been demonstrated by the key emerging technology outputs of the 2025 G7 cycle, and by emphasizing technical cooperation rather than debates on international order, middle powers can support the resilience of international institutions.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, G7, and Quantum Computing
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
49. What Luck Has to Do With It: Understanding the Role of Nuclear Luck in Decision-Making
- Author:
- Tyrus Tibor Kalanyos
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Second World War and the start of the Nuclear Age, there have been numerous cases of nuclear near-use or near-incidents. This article makes a case for how luck, particularly nuclear luck, has not only been an essential variable in preventing nuclear wars and uses, but also how experiences with nuclear luck have shaped the decision-making process in America and the Soviet Union. Through case study analyses of the War Scare events in the early 1980s, primarily the Able Archer-83 incident and the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident, the paper identifies attitude and policy shifts in decision-makers’ posture towards nuclear security with an understanding of political psychology scholarship. The findings suggest that experiences of nuclear luck can lead to more careful and risk-averse behaviour, the paper also highlights how the relationship between nuclear luck and the decision-making process can advance theories on behavioural arms control.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Decision-Making, and Luck
- Political Geography:
- Soviet Union, Global Focus, and United States of America
50. Military Peace Leadership to Protect the Force and Civilians in an Ever-Changing Environment
- Author:
- Omar Martin Tejada Perez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- This article explains how peace operations have evolved in response to constant and dynamic changes in conflict environments. This situation challenges traditional military leadership styles and approaches, which are mostly anchored in a conventional warfare mindset, one of the main reasons for the major failures in protecting United Nations forces and local civilians on the ground. Three examples of leadership stories that have positively impacted people on the ground, despite the adversity they faced, together with theoretical leadership approaches, form the analytical frame that leads to some conclusions and recommendations. In this sense, military education, social skills and capabilities, as well as civil and military interaction and coordination, are some topics revisited throughout the document.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Leadership, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
51. From Seeds to Suffering: Herbicides, Environmental Degradation and Slow Violence
- Author:
- Alexandra Pacheco Hardwicke
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Warfare almost always results in the destruction of the environment, yet the devastation extends far beyond the immediate physical consequences of battle. Historically, natural environments have played an integral role in human conflict, from land disputes to armed conflict and terrorism. Starving the enemy through attacking livestock, contaminating water resources, and scorched earth tactics are a few of the many ways in which the environment has been weaponized during war. Environmental security, particularly in the context of armed conflict, is an evolving field. The incorporation of slow violence may provide a critical framework to analyze post-war impacts and long-term ecological harm in ways traditional security studies tends to overlook.
- Topic:
- Environment, Violence, Environmental Security, Warfare, and Herbicides
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
52. Analysis of Emerging Powers Joining to International and Regional Organisations: Intentions and Implications
- Author:
- Mojtaba Eskandari, Farhad Farahani, Somayeh Hamidi, and Sara Torabian
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- The significant growth of regional and global cooperation in economic, military, and ideological areas is a common feature of modern diplomacy, as states have been continuously expanding these efforts. In today's geopolitics, these collaborations are not limited to specific regions but extend to superregional and global levels; this is evident in emerging powers that seek to increase their global influence through mutual agreements and the creation of regional or international organisations. The goal of this research is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the strategic considerations behind emerging powers' involvement in multilateral frameworks. Being part of international and regional organisations allows them to coordinate efforts and play a vital role in shaping the international order. To achieve this goal, a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis will be used, including analysis of documents, policies, expert reviews, and historical case studies.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Organization, Regional Cooperation, International Order, and Emerging Powers
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
53. Dignity, Responsibility and Reciprocity: A Framework for Non-International Armed Conflicts
- Author:
- Samuel Jesus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
- Institution:
- Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
- Abstract:
- This research aims to integrate Mario Bettati's Critical Globalist Theory within the framework of non-international armed conflicts, alongside Jean-Pierre Dupuy's ethical relationalism, particularly in the application of International Humanitarian Law. Human dignity stands as the fundamental focus of ethics amid the complexities of non-international armed conflicts. The Law of Armed Conflict faces challenges due to human objectification that arises from ruthless utilitarian armed interventions. In this context, conflicting parties must establish minimum moral limits for warfare and regulate global institutions to ensure human rights and accountability. Reciprocity, rooted in recognising globalising concepts, demonstrates that one actor's actions affect others and the global community. In this light, the isolationism, utilitarianism, and mercantilism of warfare used as state hermeneutic criteria for population protection are supplanted by dignity, responsibility, and reciprocity, thereby contributing to the renewal of global humanism and the minimum guarantee of protection within the realm of armed conflict.
- Topic:
- International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Armed Conflict, Dignity, and Reciprocity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
54. Advancing the Science of Outcome Measurement in Child Sexual Violence Prevention: Results of a Rapid Review
- Author:
- Hannabeth Franchino-Olsen, Lakshmi Neelakantan, and Mpho Silima
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
- Abstract:
- This rapid review synthesises the outcomes and measures used to evaluate interventions addressing child sexual violence (CSV) across the prevention–response continuum, drawing on 362 primary studies and using the WHO INSPIRE strategies as an organising framework. It maps the current landscape of CSV outcome measurement, highlighting dominant trends – particularly the reliance on education, life skills, and attitudinal measures – and the relative scarcity of measures capturing experiences of victimisation and perpetration. The review also underscores significant geographical and population imbalances, with most evidence originating from high-income countries and focused on adolescents. By identifying key gaps in definitions, measurement approaches, and alignment between the problem of CSV and how it is evaluated, this review provides a critical foundation for developing a more coherent, globally relevant framework for CSV outcome measurement. Ultimately, it aims to strengthen comparability across studies, improve the assessment of intervention impact, and ensure that outcome measurement better reflects the lived realities of children and communities, particularly in low- and middle-income settings.
- Topic:
- Children, Sexual Violence, and Public Health
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
55. Non-Violent Parenting and Faith: Reclaiming sacred teachings for child dignity, protection, and flourishing
- Author:
- Selina Palm and Noor ur Rehman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Sexual Violence Research Initiative (SVRI)
- Abstract:
- This Dialogue Brief, the second in a series co-produced by SVRI’s Working Group on Faith & Violence against Children of the Faith & GBV Community of Practice, draws on practice-based insights from participants in the Working Group’s 12-week educational course, Faith and Helping Children Thrive without Violence, on non-violent parenting. Authored by Dr Selina Palm and Mr Noor ur Rehman, the brief reflects on the importance of engaging in conversations with four groups: survivors, families, theological experts, and gender experts. It recommends four key shifts for faith to become a positive resource, not a roadblock, in the shared task of addressing violent discipline and supporting non-violent parenting.
- Topic:
- Religion, Children, and Parenting
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
56. Slavery and Abolition in Islamic Law (Episode 57)
- Author:
- Sahar Aziz and Bernard Freamon
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- The complex history of slavery within Islamic legal traditions spans from pre-Islamic times through the nineteenth century, revealing how religious law intersected with economic and social systems that perpetuated human bondage across centuries and cultures. This comprehensive examination of Islamic jurisprudence demonstrates how Western abolitionist efforts, while well-intentioned, ultimately failed to address the theological and legal foundations that allowed slavery to persist within Muslim societies, rendering the notion of abolition nothing more than a cruel illusion. Join host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) and Professor Bernard Freamon (https://law.rwu.edu/faculty/bernard-f...) as they explore the groundbreaking legal history detailed in his book "Possessed by the Right Hand: The Problem of Slavery in Islamic Law and Muslim Cultures (https://brill.com/display/title/36502) ." The contemporary revival of slavery by extremist groups like ISIS and Boko Haram represents a disturbing exploitation of these historical legal precedents, highlighting how ancient justifications for human trafficking and enslavement continue to find expression in modern conflicts. This legal and historical analysis reveals the urgent necessity for Islamic scholars and communities to confront their own juridical traditions and achieve true abolition through internal reform rather than external pressure. Biography: Professor Freamon is Professor of Law Emeritus at Seton Hall Law School and Professor of Law at Roger Williams University School of Law. Professor Freamon has taught Islamic Jurisprudence at New York University School of Law and brings his unique perspective as an African-American Muslim scholar to examine slavery's persistence within Islamic legal frameworks. Professor Bernard Freamon founded Seton Hall's Center for Social Justice, litigating civil rights cases before the Supreme Court, and representing underrepresented persons in constitutional law matters involving religious minorities, prisoners, and criminal defendants. Through his innovative teaching approach, including courses on slavery and human trafficking based in Zanzibar, Tanzania, and his recent election as co-chairperson of the Bristol Middle Passage Port Marker Project, Professor Freamon demonstrates how historical scholarship intersects with contemporary justice advocacy to address both past wrongs and present-day human trafficking challenges.
- Topic:
- Religion, Islamic State, Slavery, Boko Haram, Islamic Law, and Abolition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
57. Opportunity Hoarding in the Age of Inequality with Sheryll Cashin (Episode 56)
- Author:
- Sahar Aziz and Sheryll Cashin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- Opportunity hoarding occurs when advantaged groups secure and monopolize valuable resources—such as high-quality education, exclusive networks, or prime housing—to benefit their own members while restricting access for others. This behavior creates and sustains categorical inequality, often manifesting through exclusionary zoning, preferential hiring, or hoarding educational opportunities. Advantage groups create exclusive networks, secure resources, and develop practices (like exclusionary zoning or elite school networks) that protect their advantages. Such opportunity hoarding contributes significantly to the widening gap between high- and low-opportunity neighborhoods and schools. Join host Professor Sahar Aziz in conversation with Professor Sheryll Cashin about her groundbreaking book White Spaces, Black Hood: Opportunity Hoarding in the Age of Inequality (https://www.beacon.org/White-Space-Bl...) . Drawing on nearly 2 decades of research in cities including Baltimore, St. Louis, Chicago, New York, and Cleveland, Professor Cashin traces the processes of residential caste as it relates to housing, policing, schools, and transportation. She contends that geography is now central to American caste. Poverty-free havens and poverty-dense hoods would not exist if the state had not designed, constructed, and maintained this physical racial order. Cashin calls for abolition of these state-sanctioned processes. The ultimate goal is to change the lens through which society sees residents of poor Black neighborhoods from presumed thug to presumed citizen, and to transform the relationship of the state with these neighborhoods from punitive to caring. She calls for investment in a new infrastructure of opportunity in poor Black neighborhoods, including richly resourced schools and neighborhood centers, public transit, Peacemaker Fellowships, universal basic incomes, housing choice vouchers for residents, and mandatory inclusive housing elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Opportunity, and Resources
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
58. Victimhood Nationalism: History and Memory in a Global Age
- Author:
- Jie-Hyun Lim, Carol Gluck, Ruth Barraclough, Andreas Huyssen, and Malgorzata Mazurek
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- March 26, 2026 — In Victimhood Nationalism, global historian Jie-Hyun Lim examines how nations turn collective suffering into powerful nationalist narratives that continue to shape the world today. Speaker: Jie-Hyun Lim, Distinguished Professor, Sogang University, and Class of ’55 Visiting Professor, Williams College Discussants: Carol Gluck, George Sansom Professor Emerita of History, Department of History, Columbia University; Ruth Barraclough, Korea Foundation Associate Professor of the Social Sciences, Department of History, Columbia University; Andreas Huyssen, Villard Professor Emeritus of German and Comparative Literature, Columbia University Moderator: Małgorzata Mazurek, Associate Professor of Polish Studies, Department of History, Columbia University
- Topic:
- Nationalism, History, and Victimization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
59. When do voters stop caring? Estimating the shape of voters' utility functions
- Author:
- Aleksandra Conevska and Can Mutlu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- In this paper, we address a longstanding puzzle over the functional form that better approximates voter utility from political choices. Though it has become the norm in the literature to represent voter utility with concave loss functions, for decades scholars have underscored this assumption’s potential shortcomings. Yet there exists little to no evidence to support one functional form assumption over another. We fill this gap by first identifying electoral settings where the different functional forms generate divergent predictions about voter behavior. We then assess which functional form better matches observed voter and abstention behavior using Cast Vote Record (CVR) data that captures the anonymized ballots of millions of voters in the 2020 U.S. general election. Our findings indicate that concave loss functions fail to predict voting and abstention behavior, and it is the reverse S-shaped loss functions, such as the Gaussian function, that better match voter behavior.
- Topic:
- Politics, Voting, and Voting Behavior
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
60. Disrupting Violence, Protecting Lives: Strangulation Laws and Intimate Partner Homicides
- Author:
- D'ercio de Assis, Arpita Ghosh, Sonia Oreffice, and Climent Quintana-Domeque
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
- Abstract:
- Non-fatal strangulation (NFS) is a form of intimate partner violence (IPV) and a strong predictor of intimate partner homicide (IPH). We compile NFS statute data, link them to homicide reports, 1990–2019, and estimate effects on IPH using a two-stage difference-in-differences estimator for staggered adoption and heterogeneous effects. NFS laws reduce IPH for ages 18–49, by 0.169 female-victim homicides per 100,000 women and 0.090 male-victim homicides per 100,000 men. We find no effects on IPH for ages 50–70 or on stranger-perpetrated homicides. Evidence from reported IPV incidents is suggestive of changes in reported incident classification and arrest patterns.
- Topic:
- Law Enforcement, Violence, Intimate Partner Violence, and Strangulation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
61. AI and Propaganda: Nothing Is True, and Everything Is Generated
- Author:
- Halyna Padalko and Peter Pomerantsev
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- A public conversation with Peter Pomerantsev, British-Ukrainian author, journalist, and one of the world's leading voices on propaganda and authoritarian disinformation. His books "Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible," "This Is Not Propaganda," and "How to Win an Information War: The Propagandist Who Outwitted Hitler" have defined how a generation understands modern information warfare. A senior fellow at the SNF Agora Institute at John Hopkins University, Pomerantsev has spent decades documenting how autocratic regimes weaponize media, narrative, and, now, artificial intelligence to destabilize democracies and erode the very idea of truth. As AI reshapes the information landscape at breathtaking speed, this conversation asks the questions that matter most: How does AI-powered propaganda differ from what came before — and how do new technologies shape public reality? What happens to our collective capacity for critical thinking when personalized, algorithmically generated realities become the new normality? How can AI help us to protect ourselves from information manipulation? Who are the main actors in disinformation as a business, and what can the world learn from Ukraine, which has become an unexpected laboratory for countering disinformation under existential pressure?
- Topic:
- Propaganda, Artificial Intelligence, Disinformation, and Information Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
62. Starr Forum: New World Disorder: What’s the Humanitarian Perspective?
- Author:
- David Miliband and John Deutch
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Starr Forum: New World Disorder: What’s the Humanitarian Perspective? | Thursday, April 9, 2026 Speaker: David Miliband, president, International Rescue Committee (IRC), and former foreign secretary for the United Kingdom (2007-2010). He oversees the IRC’s operations in more than 40 crisis-affected countries and its refugee resettlement and assistance programs throughout Europe and the Americas. He is a 1987 graduate of Oxford, with a degree in philosophy, politics, and economics, and earned a master’s degree in political science in 1989 from MIT. Moderator: John Deutch is an American civil servant and physical chemist. He was the United States deputy secretary of defense from 1994 to 1995 and director of Central Intelligence from May 10, 1995, until December 15, 1996. He is an emeritus Institute Professor at MIT.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Geopolitics, International Order, and Humanitarian Response
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
63. GR&P Seminar: Sanction Spillover and Trade Diversification
- Author:
- Christina L. Davis
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- How do sanctions affect third-party states? This research, conducted with Ruofan Ma (Harvard), examines how states respond to the systemic risks caused by sanctions by diversifying their trade portfolios. Analyzing trade concentration and sanction data from 1990 to 2020 and also looking at the specific case of President Trump's 2018 national security tariffs, we find that states diversify their trading partners when sanctions disrupt their existing trade partner networks. These findings highlight the spillover effects of sanctions and the dynamics of trade interdependence.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Tariffs, Risk, Trade, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
64. The Recruitment and Use of Children as a Stand-Alone Crime Against Humanity
- Author:
- Janine Morna and Laura Perez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- As United Nations Member States prepare to negotiate a new Convention based on the Draft Articles on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes Against Humanity (Draft Articles),1 the international community faces a critical opportunity to close a longstanding gap in protection and accountability. Despite decades of prevention efforts, the recruitment and use of children by State and non-State armed actors remains widespread and devastating. Children are forced to serve in a range of roles, including as fighters, porters, messengers and spies in armed conflict and in other situations of violence. The future Convention presents a moment to explicitly recognize the recruitment and use of children as a constituent act of crimes against humanity. This would ensure that such exploitation is punishable as a crime against humanity when it forms part of a widespread or systematic attack against a civilian population, regardless of whether the situation is formally classified as an armed conflict. It also offers an important step toward aligning international criminal law with international norms prohibiting compulsory recruitment and direct participation in hostilities of people aged 15 to 17.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Crimes Against Humanity, Armed Conflict, and Child Soldiers
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
65. As US food aid retreats, can BRICS+ and biotechnology fill the world’s food security gap?
- Author:
- Cullen S. Hendrix
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many food-insecure developing economies with significant hunger lack the resources to self-finance agricultural research and development (R&D) and have had to depend increasingly on themselves—and one another—to meet rising food needs. Hendrix argues that the BRICS+ economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia—are well positioned to fill the world’s food security gap.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Markets, Foreign Aid, BRICS, Food Assistance, and Biotechnology
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
66. Innovation as resilience: Demand-side strategies for critical mineral supply chain security
- Author:
- Alexis Harmon and Reed Blakemore
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report, the first in the Redefining Resilience series of publications, examines demand-side innovation for critical mineral supply chains: the set of strategies that reduce how much of a constrained mineral an economy requires and expand the range of viable supply options. It argues that critical mineral supply chain policy has a structural blind spot. It has been organized around the question of where materials come from while largely ignoring an equally consequential set of questions: how much of these materials economies actually need, how that demand is shaped, and who shapes demand. Material substitution, material efficiency, and system and product redesign are not substitutes for supply-side investment, but they are essential complements that remain underused. Drawing on a roundtable convened under the Chatham House Rule by the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center, this report examines two sectors, batteries and permanent magnets, to show how demand-side innovation either reaches deployment or stalls. The barriers are concrete and addressable: financing systems poorly structured for first-of-kind technology, procurement frameworks that privilege incumbent materials, qualification processes that slow substitution, and, overarchingly, a policy architecture focused overwhelmingly on supply. Closing these gaps requires targeted interventions: demand-pull mechanisms that bolster markets for alternative technologies, standards reform that enables substitution, and better coordination that brings manufacturers and system designers into supply chain policy alongside miners and processors. The goal is not to replace supply-side interventions but to build the complementary demand-side infrastructure needed to strengthen and de-risk mineral supply chains.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Innovation, Supply Chains, Energy, Energy Security, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
67. Does implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) increase resource revenue in developing countries?
- Author:
- Neerbewendé Abdoul Rachid Pafadnam
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The need for developing countries to increase their domestic revenue has always been relevant, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, which weakened their public finances. This paper analyses the dynamic treatment effects of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) implementation on resource revenue mobilization. We use a sample of 83 developing countries from 1995 to 2019, and our empirical strategy relies on the recent dynamic heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences estimator. Our results show that implementing the EITI increases resource revenue in member countries through improved governance from greater transparency, increased foreign direct investment, and extractive resource exports. These findings are robust to several robustness checks. This study highlights the significant contribution of the EITI implementation in domestic revenue mobilization and the necessity to improve transparency in natural resources management, especially as international demand for critical mineral resources is expected to grow strongly.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Tax Systems, COVID-19, Extractive Industries, and Revenue
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
68. From Factories to Ideas: The New Map of Global Power
- Author:
- Erik van der Marel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- Globalisation is not collapsing but transforming. Rather than retreating, global economic integration is shifting from a system organised around physical goods and factories to one increasingly driven by intangible assets such as data, services, intellectual property, and knowledge-intensive collaboration. Intangible flows are reshaping how integration occurs. Unlike goods trade, these flows are largely weightless, collaborative, scale at near-zero marginal cost, and are far less constrained by physical distance, weakening the traditional link between geography and economic exchange. Distance has been redefined from geographic to geopolitical. In the intangible economy, cross-border exchange depends less on how far countries are apart and more on political trust, security alignment, and institutional compatibility, including shared norms around governance, data, and the rule of law. Economic power is reorganising around “idea blocs.” Because intangible assets are harder to protect than goods, firms and investors increasingly concentrate collaboration among politically aligned countries with strong institutions, producing new groupings that surpass geography and reshape global alliances. This shift demands a new framework for understanding globalisation. Existing models cantered on supply chains and production networks cannot explain current patterns of integration, power, and cooperation; globalisation must instead be understood through the political economy of intangibles, institutions, and trust.
- Topic:
- Globalization, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Services, Innovation, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
69. War is a mind game: countering weaponized information
- Author:
- Marek Havlík and Jiří Horáček
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Cognitive warfare is the weaponization of information that exploits natural cognitive vulnerabilities to disrupt, manipulate and control individuals’ perceptions of reality. NATO’s current countermeasures, such as pre-bunking, strategic communications, and trust-building efforts, don’t fully address the deeper psychological and cognitive vulnerabilities targeted in cognitive warfare. In addition to common cognitive vulnerabilities like emotions, cognitive biases, and uncertainty, other critical traits are being exploited on the cognitive battlefield to manipulate and control vulnerable individuals.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Information Warfare, and Cognitive Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
70. Betting on blue: how to improve NATO military forecasting for acquisitions
- Author:
- Ben Connable
- Publication Date:
- 07-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Effective acquisition strategies require a solid, evidence-grounded forecasting methodology and real-world data. But at least for land warfare, that baseline is inadequate. Absent a global understanding of land war – by far the most common and strategically relevant type of conventional and irregular war – NATO acquisitions may not best address even the pressing threat from Russia. Analysis of the new Ground Combat Database shows how important findings and questions relevant to acquisitions can be drawn from longitudinal case data. Even better analytic approaches are readily available, as are better data. Action plan forecasting and acquisitions can be improved with aggressive and evidence-grounded analyses.
- Topic:
- NATO, Military, and Warfare
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
71. Beam me up: leadership skills in space
- Author:
- Maria Soto
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- As NATO nations enhance their space capabilities, there is a critical need for leadership development. Current training focuses heavily on technical skills, often overlooking essential leadership qualities such as creativity, resilience and emotional intelligence, which are crucial for effective command in joint operations. Successful space leaders must cultivate the interconnected qualities of individual agility, trust, resilience and self-awareness to navigate the complexities of this domain. To develop effective space leaders, NATO should integrate leadership training with technical education, prioritize cross-domain collaboration and leverage partnerships with industry.
- Topic:
- NATO, Partnerships, Leadership, and Space
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
72. Research for Community Benefits and Risks from Carbon Credit Project
- Author:
- Oxfam in Cambodia
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This study examines the community-level benefits and risks associated with carbon credit initiatives in Cambodia, with a focus on REDD+ initiatives. The research focuses on the governance and socioeconomic dimensions of these initiatives rather than their technical carbon accounting performance.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Governance, Socioeconomics, Carbon Credits, and Carbon Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
73. Navigating Grievance Mechanisms: A Pathway to Robust Accountability for Rightsholders
- Author:
- Maria Romis
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This briefing for business provides practical guidance for companies on how to design and implement effective grievance mechanisms as a core component of human rights and environmental due diligence (HREDD). Building on the expectations set by the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGPs) and emerging regulatory frameworks, it emphasizes that grievance mechanisms are not only a compliance requirement but a critical tool for identifying risks, enabling remedy, and strengthening accountability across operations and supply chains. The paper argues that effective systems must be both people-centered—trusted, accessible, and shaped by rightsholders—and embedded within a broader grievance ecosystem that connects operational, brand, and multi-stakeholder level mechanisms. Each level plays a distinct but complementary role: operational mechanisms provide immediate, site-level access; brand-level systems extend accountability across supply chains and leverage influence to drive remedy; and multi-stakeholder mechanisms enable collective action to address systemic risks. Across all levels, the briefing highlights a consistent implementation gap: mechanisms often remain compliance-driven, fragmented, and underused due to lack of trust, accessibility barriers, and limited rightsholder participation. In contrast, emerging good practices show that when mechanisms are designed with rightsholders, supported by local actors, and linked through clear escalation pathways, they can surface hidden risks, strengthen accountability, and deliver meaningful outcomes. The briefing is structured in four parts: (1) reframing grievance mechanisms as rights-based systems for remedy; (2) examining different types of mechanisms and good practices across operational, brand, and multi-stakeholder levels; (3) exploring how these mechanisms can function together as a layered and complementary system; and (4) outlining practical steps to embed a people-centered approach across all levels. Together, these elements support companies in moving from fragmented, compliance-driven approaches toward integrated systems that enable effective remedy, continuous learning, and long-term risk reduction.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Business, Accountability, Due Diligence, Rightsholder Engagement, and Grievance Mechanisms
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
74. From Commitments to Communities: Rethinking Climate Finance: How civil society and community participation strengthen accountability, access and equity
- Author:
- Tallulah Cherry-Virdee and Bertram Zagema
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The climate crisis is accelerating, but climate finance is still not reaching the people who need it most. Despite repeated promises and global commitments, funding remains inadequate, fragmented, and too often locked in top-down systems that ignore local realities. Communities on the frontlines and civil society actors are too often shut out of decisions that directly affect their lives — excluded from planning, budgeting, and access to finance itself. This must change. Real climate justice demands finance that is accessible, equitable, and driven by the voices of those most impacted. Drawing on 21 studies from across the Global South, this report exposes systemic barriers in climate finance and shines a light on what works. It highlights how civil society is already driving change, and sets out clear, practical recommendations to make climate finance more accountable, inclusive, and rooted in community realities.
- Topic:
- Governance, Climate Finance, Participatory Budgeting, Climate Justice, and Fiscal Justice
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
75. Resisting the Rule of the Rich
- Author:
- Alex Maitland, Anjela Taneja, Anthony Kamande, Carlos Brown Solá, Harry Bignell, Max Lawson, and Rune Møller Stahl
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Extreme inequality is reaching new heights. In 2025, billionaire wealth increased three times faster than the average annual rate over the previous five years. Meanwhile, one in four people don’t regularly have enough to eat and nearly half the world’s population live in poverty. The super-rich are becoming a new oligarchy, using their extreme wealth to buy politics, the media and justice to defend their fortunes, dismantle and destroy progressive policies and strip away our basic civil and political rights. Siding with the super-rich, increasingly authoritarian governments are supressing dissent, curtailing rights and fuelling division to protect and preserve this extreme inequality. We must resist by building a worldwide people’s movement to defend our rights, and fight for a clear alternative to inequality and oligarchy.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Inequality, Protests, Tax Systems, Repression, Justice, Freedom, Gender, and Civic Space
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
76. Grand Bargain 10 Years on: Protecting quality under scarcity
- Author:
- Rachel Scott
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The Grand Bargain reaches its 10-year mark in 2026 at a moment of acute funding cuts, hyper-prioritization and rising pressure to prioritize quantity over quality. The Facilitation Group are now leading consultations to inform negotiations on how the Grand Bargain evolves beyond 2026. This paper argues that progress since 2016 is real but fragile, and that the next phase must learn from what has enabled and hindered delivery. Oxfam calls for a focused forum that protects hard-won gains, proves progress credibly, accelerates practical change on the ground, and keeps quality and legitimacy non-negotiable under scarcity.
- Topic:
- Reform, Humanitarian Response, and Grand Bargain
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
77. Time to Walk the Talk: The IMF’s tax advice, 2022-2024
- Author:
- Nabil Abdo
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Since the pandemic, the IMF’s leadership has been urging countries to pursue more progressive tax policies, backed up by the Fund’s own research. Despite this encouraging development, the IMF’s policy advice on tax in its Article IV reports since the pandemic has been skewed towards regressive taxation. This indicates its continued insistence on austerity as the default way forward, thereby entrenching gender and economic inequalities.
- Topic:
- International Monetary Fund, Surveillance, Tax Systems, Austerity, and Wealth
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
78. Unlocking water capacity: How AI & Cloud computing applications can increase water supply and reduce water demand
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Oxford Economics Australia partnered with AWS to produce a robust, evidence-led report exploring how AI, cloud computing, connected sensors, and advanced analytics can help increase available water capacity across Australia. The project assessed practical opportunities to reduce water losses, optimise consumption, improve operational decision-making, and support long-term water resilience across utilities, households, agriculture, and mining. Deliverables included sector modelling, market sizing, real-world case studies, adoption pathways, and quantified efficiency opportunities.
- Topic:
- Water, Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Computing, Consumption, and Supply and Demand
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
79. Housing at the Center: Rebuilding the Social Contract for Cities in a Fragmented World
- Author:
- Anacláudi Rossbach
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- As the world turns its attention to Baku in anticipation of the Thirteenth Session of the World Urban Forum (WEF13), a profound realization is taking hold across governments, institutions, and communities: the future of cities will be determined not only by how they grow, but by how they house their people. Across continents and contexts, housing has emerged as the defining challenge of our urban age. It sits at the intersection of inequality, climate change, economic instability, and social fragmentation. And yet, for decades, it has too often been treated as a sectoral issue—something to be addressed through discrete policies, market adjustments, or targeted programs. It is increasingly clear and consistently emphasized by UN‑Habitat that housing must be understood not as a standalone domain, but as the foundation of the entire urban system. The scale of the challenge is staggering. Over 2.8 billion people worldwide live in inadequate housing conditions. Hundreds of millions experience homelessness, often in forms that remain invisible in official statistics—people living in temporary shelters, overcrowded spaces, or precarious arrangements that offer little security or dignity. More than 1 billion people reside in informal settlements or slums, where access to basic services such as water, sanitation, and electricity is uncertain, and where tenure insecurity leaves communities vulnerable to eviction and displacement. In short, the housing crisis affects nearly 40 percent of the global population.
- Topic:
- Development, Inequality, Cities, and Housing
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
80. From Conflict Zones to Supply Chain Zones: Critical Raw Materials and the Reconfiguration of Global Power
- Author:
- Han Ilhan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Baku Dialogues
- Institution:
- ADA University
- Abstract:
- The international system is entering a period of heightened fragmentation and strategic realignment. Economic security, supply chain resilience, and industrial competitiveness are increasingly central to national strategy. Within this evolving landscape, critical raw materials (CRMs) have moved from the margins of industrial policy to the center of geopolitical and geo‑economic planning. CRMs are foundational not only to the energy “transition,” but also to advanced manufacturing, digital infrastructure, aerospace systems, and defense technologies. Their strategic relevance derives from both their functional indispensability and the concentration of processing capacity within a limited number of jurisdictions. In several key mineral value chains, supply exposure remains highly concentrated, resulting in vulnerabilities for advanced economies whose industrial bases depend on secure and predictable access. As a result, diversification of supply has become a policy priority across multiple demand‑side economies. Yet the implications of CRMs extend beyond industrial competitiveness. The geography of CRM production and processing intersects with regions historically shaped by political tension, limited economic integration, and uneven development. As global supply chains are reconfigured, CRMs have the potential either to reinforce geopolitical rivalry or to anchor new forms of economic interdependence. Whether CRMs become instruments of intensified competition or foundations of structural stability will depend not only on resource endowment, but on the architecture of cooperation between supply‑side and demand‑side economies. The defining question is therefore not simply who controls resources, but how capital, technology, and long‑term strategy are aligned around them. Understanding the evolving global CRMs landscape requires examining both the policy responses of advanced economies and the institutional models that have shaped the current concentration of supply.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Supply Chains, International System, Raw Materials, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
81. Poverty Traps
- Author:
- Oriana Bandiera, Robin Burgess, Anton Heil, and Munshi Sulaiman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- Poverty traps are among the most influential yet elusive ideas in economics. This chapter reviews the challenges involved in identifying poverty traps and surveys the progress made over the past quarter-century. It examines both individual and societal traps and explores the links between them. Individual traps are feedback mechanisms that make poverty self-reinforcing. Societal poverty traps are interactions between workers or firms that create complementarities and can lead to multiple equilibria at an aggregate level. We also discuss evidence on the mechanisms that underlie each of these traps. We highlight open questions and draw policy implications.
- Topic:
- Economics, Poverty, and Poverty Traps
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
82. The Role of Military Gender Advisers in UN Peacekeeping Operations: Implications for Operational Effectiveness and The Future of Peacekeeping Operations
- Author:
- Phoebe Donnelly, Anna Naa Adochoo Mensah, and Olivia Parsons
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- Implementing the women, peace, and security (WPS) agenda and mainstreaming gender have the potential to make UN peacekeeping operations more operationally effective, including by improving situational awareness and strengthening mission planning. Within this effort, military gender advisers (MGAs) play a central role in integrating a gender perspective across the military components of UN missions. This policy paper examines the role of MGAs in UN peacekeeping operations, drawing on interviews and survey data from gender advisers and focal points across missions. It discusses how MGAs are situated within the UN Peacekeeping Gender Architecture, variations in recruitment and training of MGAs, and the wide range of roles and responsibilities of MGAs. Furthermore, the paper identifies persistent challenges, including unclear job descriptions, short deployment cycles, limited training, and difficulties in coordination with civilian counterparts. The paper finds that the effectiveness of MGAs is shaped by factors such as leadership support, professional background, gender and cultural dynamics, and resource constraints. It underscores that as peacekeeping operations face financial pressures and structural reforms, ensuring that gender advisers are adequately trained, resourced, and integrated into mission planning will be critical to maintaining operational effectiveness.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Gender, Military, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
83. Capitalizing on Digital Financial Services for Clean Cooking Transitions
- Author:
- Annelise Gill-Wiehl, B. Kelsey Jack, Alex Appiah, Bernard Aryee, and Sule Awuni
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
- Abstract:
- Over 2 billion people worldwide still rely primarily on polluting solid fuels for cooking. These households often have intermittent incomes and purchase firewood or charcoal day-to-day. In many low and middle income countries, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is the main feasible clean fuel, but requires larger lump sum payments to refill or exchange cylinders. Even when LPG’s total cost matches biomass fuels, liquidity constraints can prevent households from switching. GasPay addresses this barrier — a phone-based digital financial service platform connecting users with LPG suppliers while providing a designated savings vehicle for refills. We describe the platform’s design, the motivation behind it, and estimate its potential impact on charcoal demand, LPG use, and carbon emissions. Our results reveal how digital financial services can unlock clean energy access and advance multiple development goals simultaneously.
- Topic:
- Gas, Carbon Emissions, Digital Finance, Energy, and Cooking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
84. UN Peace Operations and the Role of the Peacebuilding Fund
- Author:
- Lauren McGowan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- As the UN reexamines the future of its peace operations amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and financial constraints, greater attention is being paid to how to leverage peacebuilding tools, including to support more coherent and sustainable transitions. In this context, the Peacebuilding Fund (PBF) has emerged as a central instrument for bridging operational, programmatic, and financial gaps—particularly in settings where peace operations are drawing down or have recently withdrawn. This policy paper examines the role of the PBF in UN peace operations contexts. Since its inception, the PBF has invested over $1.3 billion through nearly 700 projects in countries hosting UN peace operations. The paper finds that the PBF has been leveraged as a support mechanism, a strategic enabler, and a political tool. It also finds that the PBF has played an important role in supporting sustainable UN transitions. At the same time, while the PBF is a flexible and catalytic instrument, it is not a substitute for peace operations, and expectations regarding its role must remain realistic.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Geopolitics, Finance, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
85. The Glass Blue Helmet: Progress and Persistent Challenges for Women Military Peacekeepers
- Author:
- Lotte Vermeij
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- Women’s meaningful participation in UN peacekeeping operations has advanced since 2020, but progress remains uneven and fragile. While dedicated training initiatives, peer-support structures, and women’s visibility in leadership roles have expanded, women peacekeepers continue to face structural barriers that limit their operational participation, safety, and career advancement. This policy paper draws on interviews with eighty-five women military peacekeepers from forty-three troop-contributing countries, along with consultations with UN officials, force commanders, and mission personnel. The paper examines the gap between the UN’s commitments on women’s meaningful participation and the realities women encounter in mission environments. It highlights persistent challenges including role misalignment, harassment, exclusion from operational decision making, inadequate equipment, and weak accountability systems. The paper argues that leadership is the decisive variable shaping women’s deployment experiences. It calls for linking training nominations to deployment commitments, tracking participation in substantive tasks rather than headcounts, embedding gender-responsive indicators in leadership evaluations, establishing confidential reporting channels outside national chains of command, and auditing equipment standards before deployment.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Women, Troop Deployment, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
86. Invisible Diaspora Among Koryo-saram Third Culture Kids (TCKs)
- Author:
- Hayoung Hwang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the shifting paradigm of security in the era of globalization, emphasizing the limitations of traditional state-centric models in addressing the needs of marginalized diaspora communities. Focusing on Korean Third Culture Kids (TCKs), particularly the Koryosaram in post-Soviet regions, it examines how double marginalization, unstable cultural identity, and a lack of institutional support shape their human, cultural, and community security experiences. By analyzing existing studies and policy frameworks, the study highlights the insufficient recognition and protection of these groups within Korea’s diaspora policy. The paper argues for an expanded understanding of security that encompasses identity, cultural cohesion, and community belonging for diaspora youth, presenting recommendations for more inclusive policy measures to strengthen the security and integration of TCKs as vital contributors to Korea’s global network.
- Topic:
- Migration, Diaspora, Culture, Human Security, Identity, Third Culture Kids, and Social Belonging
- Political Geography:
- Korea and Global Focus
87. The Pursuit of Smart Mobility in Urban Nodes: Trends and Innovation for Citizens and Freight
- Author:
- Carlo Secchi, Giovanni Maria Della Gatta, and Stefano Riela
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- Urbanisation is transforming territories at an unprecedented pace, redefining how people and goods move within, between and beyond cities. As urban areas expand and interconnect, mobility systems are called to respond with greater efficiency, sustainability and resilience. At the core of this transformation are urban nodes – strategic interfaces where local and long-distance networks converge. Here, mobility is evolving from a fragmented set of transport modes into an integrated system shaped by accessibility, seamless connectivity and user experience. At the same time, freight mobility introduces additional complexity, requiring coordinated, multi-actor approaches and a gradual shift toward multimodal and adaptive logistics. Technological innovation is accelerating this transition. Data-driven tools, intelligent infrastructure and emerging solutions such as artificial intelligence and digital platforms are reshaping how mobility systems are planned and managed. Yet, the challenge extends beyond technology. Environmental sustainability, territorial cohesion and the integration of peripheral regions remain critical dimensions of this evolution. Smart mobility is thus emerging as a systemic paradigm – one that links infrastructure, governance and innovation. Its success depends not only on performance and efficiency, but on the ability to create more balanced, inclusive and future-oriented mobility systems.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Governance, Urbanization, Mobility, Innovation, Transportation, and Cities
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
88. Investing for tomorrow: long-term investment, economic scale and the green transition
- Author:
- Philip Ushchev and Guntram B. Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- We seek to explain positive correlations between green investments and long-term financial holdings, the size of the economy and the variance in GDP. To this end, we develop a model for green investments that expands on a standard non-cooperative private provision of public goods game, with heterogeneous agents and intertemporal choices. Agents differ in, first, time preference and, second, wealth/income. Our model shows that: (a) green bonds tend to account for larger shares of the portfolios of long-term oriented investors, (b) larger economies tend to invest more in climate mitigation, and (c) more heterogeneity among types of agents increases climate investments. Our model has significant implications for climate policy: it points to the importance of long-term investors in the green transition and to the importance of larger groups of countries agreeing on cooperative frameworks, for example, in the form of climate clubs, to increase overall investment in climate mitigation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Investment, Macroeconomics, Sustainability, and Decarbonization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
89. When oil is scarce and debt is binding: policy sequencing under a severe energy supply shock
- Author:
- Gene Frieda
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- The 2026 Iran energy shock differs categorically from the 2022 episode, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to rerouting of oil and gas supply. The 2026 shock eliminates supply, with a volume loss exceeding 1973-74 and a full energy bill running at two or more times the crude-only estimate. Two features compound the difficulty for the euro area, United States, United Kingdom and Japan: weaker fiscal positions driving term premia higher and a live inflation regime in which tightening is now binding and costly. Narrow fiscal space may therefore force temporary monetary-fiscal coordination: targeted fiscal support to stabilise output, paired with conditional yield anchor operations that prevent financing stress from crowding out that support, while leaving the long end of the curve free to carry the inflation signal. The novelty is the inflation regime. This paper defines the conditions under which such purchases remain credible when inflation, fiscal sustainability and external adjustment bind simultaneously. Three conclusions follow. First, the binding constraint is not the mechanics of bond-buying but the market’s belief in a credible exit and tightening option. Second, that belief depends on initial conditions, so coordination is not universally available: the credibility window is widest for the US, fragmentation-exposed in the euro area, foreign-exchange-cushioned in Japan and narrowest in the UK. Third, if coordination is feasible, it should be pre-committed, conditional and bounded by a published exit rule, otherwise procyclical adjustment analogous to emerging-market sudden stops becomes the default.
- Topic:
- Oil, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Public Debt, Energy, and 2026 Iran War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
90. A plan for a World Trade Organization sectoral agreement on semiconductors
- Author:
- Petros C. Mavroidis and Mario R. Palacios
- Publication Date:
- 07-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- To promote their economic security, or simply to inflict damage on other nations, countries are increasingly weaponising trade policy. To do so, trading nations must sidestep the rules-based system established in the aftermath of the Second World War because this system, in letter and spirit, opposes such behaviour. However, neglecting the rules-based system leads to uncertainty, and uncertainty incentivises trading nations to intensify their pursuit of national economic security, thus undermining the multilateral edifice even more. It does not have to be this way, however. Based on an analysis of trade in semiconductors (a product market in which there is clear weaponisation of trade policy), we argue that, while a comprehensive negotiation on economic security may be currently unrealistic, a sectoral agreement within the World Trade Organization would be both feasible and appropriate, and could provide a template for regulating economic security. Such an agreement should include non-discriminatory trade in high-end semiconductors and a negotiated list of segments of the covered product market, in which signatories will be allowed to erect barriers to protect economic/national security without being obliged to compensate affected parties.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, World Trade Organization, Governance, Multilateralism, Trade Policy, and Semiconductors
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
91. COVID-19 Slowed but Couldn’t Stop the Fall in Global Inequality
- Author:
- Chelsea Follett and Vincent Geloso
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Over the long run, global inequality has declined dramatically across many dimensions as living standards have improved. While a substantial reduction in worldwide inequality occurred between 1990 and 2021, the last two years in that range reveal far slower progress, reflecting pandemic-era stagnation. These findings underscore the vital role of undisturbed markets in sustaining the trajectory of human progress, as well as the vulnerability of political liberty in times of perceived crisis. The Inequality of Human Progress Index reveals that pandemic-driven shocks to the global economy slowed advances, halting the momentum of earlier growth across many measures of human well-being and stalling progress toward the world becoming better off and more equal. Still, long-run global progress has been more substantial and widely shared than previously recognized. These findings challenge popular narratives of rising global inequality. Such views have inspired calls for unprecedented interventions, including global wealth taxes, expanded foreign aid programs, and massive redistributive policies—proposals that would be counterproductive to the continuation of broadly shared human advancement.
- Topic:
- Inequality, COVID-19, Global Economy, and Human Progress Index
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
92. Mainstreamed but sidelined: Global funding for gender equality
- Author:
- Grace Stanhope
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Basic rights and wellbeing outcomes for women and girls globally are regressing or stalling. Cuts to foreign aid and a growing hostility towards gender equality programs risk eroding hard-won gains and turning the trend into a crisis. Rising international aid for gender equality has disguised a stagnation of targeted funding for core issues such as healthcare, education, physical safety, and legal rights. This funding gap is widest in conflict zones and disaster-affected areas, where women and girls are often the most at risk and the least supported. The most effective solution is to “upstream” gender equality aid directly into international development funding of core sectors, rather than treating it as an add-on. Anchoring this approach with a clear funding commitment would help protect these programs and deliver better outcomes for the world’s most vulnerable women and girls.
- Topic:
- Foreign Aid, Sustainable Development Goals, Gender, Gender Equality, and Gender Mainstreaming
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
93. After the compromise: Australia’s COP31 blueprint for the Pacific
- Author:
- Melanie Pill, Georgia Hammersley, and Alexandre Dayant
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Australia’s COP31 compromise with Türkiye, which allows Antalya to host this year’s global climate summit, secures Canberra’s control of official negotiations but weakens its influence over the wider summit, where practical decisions are made. The Pacific-hosted pre-COP is a critical opportunity to build political momentum ahead of COP31 by convening selected global leaders and placing Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in a visible leadership role to secure high-profile support for Pacific climate priorities. Australia can still deliver meaningful outcomes for the Pacific by aligning regional priorities with those of other climate-vulnerable countries, exercising ambitious leadership through the President of Negotiations, and redirecting hosting-related resources towards climate action in the region.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
- Political Geography:
- Australia, Pacific Islands, Turkey, and Global Focus
94. The ungoverned sky: Drones and the domestic extremist threat
- Author:
- James Paterson and Lydia Khalil
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Domestic extremist actors are incorporating drone technology into operational capabilities and attack plots, taking inspiration from the battlefield. The number of violent plots utilising drones has increased sharply over the past five years. Domestic counter-drone frameworks are mismatched to the threat. Effective protection requires layered, multi-system approaches across potential civilian targets and critical infrastructure. Easy-to-access technologies, such as 3D printing, open-source design files, additive hardware, and AI-assisted navigation are lowering the barriers to modifying and weaponising drones.
- Topic:
- Security, Violent Extremism, Weapons, Drones, Artificial Intelligence, and 3D Printing
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
95. The global sovereign citizen movement
- Author:
- Lydia Khalil and Keiran Hardy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The sovereign citizen movement has spread from the United States to more than 26 countries globally. Covid restrictions and digital networks accelerated its growth and created dangerous intersections with other conspiracy movements. The sovereign citizen movement has grown beyond a nuisance, escalating into a national security challenge for many countries around the world. The transnational threat of the movement requires multilateral intelligence coordination, online interventions to counter influencers, narratives, and networks, and globally informed threat assessments.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, National Security, Social Media, Conspiracy Theory, Political Extremism, and Sovereign Citizens
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
96. A Practical Guide to LinkedIn Advertising Reach Data for Social Science: Methods, Challenges, and Five Applications
- Author:
- Saila Naomi Stausholm and Javier Garcia-Bernardo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- LinkedIn data offers a unique way to study how professional groups and organizations underpin economic and political life. This paper shows how LinkedIn’s advertising reach data, which provides anonymized counts of users by job title, skills, employer, and location, can be used to study organizational and professional dynamics relevant to a wide range of issues in political economy and economic sociology. We showcase the potential through five illustrative cases: 1) the revolving doors between Wall Street and US financial regulators; 2) the geography of professionals such as accountants and bankers; 3) the professional composition of interdisciplinary firms such as antitrust consulting firms; 4) recruitment by different industries and specifically big professional services firms in the face of new regulatory demands for sustainability reporting; and 5) the emergence of a profession of cyber security professionals over time. Alongside these examples, we provide a step-by-step guide for implementing the method in practice and discuss how linking professional attributes with geographical or organizational characteristics can provide new answers to various research questions. We hope this paper serves as a helpful practical guide as well as inspiration for new research questions.
- Topic:
- Data, Advertising, Social Science, Professionals, and LinkedIn
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
97. Defending before the International Criminal Court: An Interview with Mylène Dimitri
- Author:
- Mylène Dmitri, Cailan Cumming, Kate Gibson, and Paul Williams
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- This blog is part of the Defending Justice series, an initiative of the Public International Law and Policy Group (PILPG) to promote an eclectic array of voices within the field of international criminal law. As part of our broader efforts to strengthen institutions of justice, this series seeks to create space for dialogue around the varied perspectives and concerns that shape these institutions. With that aim in mind, we interviewed a series of defense practitioners working in international criminal law and distilled their experiences and insights into a series of first-person blogs, preserving the spirit and voice of those interviews.
- Topic:
- International Law, Interview, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
98. South Korea’s Sovereign AI Initiative for Democracy: A Transferable Model for the Global Community
- Author:
- Jong Jin Lee
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Jong Jin Lee, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, Seoul National University, argues that South Korea's Sovereign AI framework — anchored in the AI Basic Act (2024/2026) and the K-AI Initiative — offers a replicable third path between Silicon Valley techno-liberalism and Chinese state-AI authoritarianism. Tracing Korea's AI governance evolution across three institutional phases, Dr. Lee contends that democratic alignment, civic oversight, and epistemic sovereignty constitute the core of a globally transferable model. Building on this analysis, the author calls for middle-power democracies to adopt Korea's frameworks for AI security resilience and pluralistic technical standards as a democratic alternative to the dominant AI order.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Governance, Democracy, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and Global Focus
99. Reading the room: Redesigning intelligence product for the AI age
- Author:
- Chris Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Reading the room argues that Australia’s National Intelligence Community faces a growing mismatch between how intelligence is produced and how it is now consumed in an AI-shaped information environment. While intelligence collection and analysis have advanced significantly, the formats, delivery methods and user experience of intelligence products have changed far less. As ministers, policymakers and operational leaders increasingly expect information that is faster, more interactive, more tailored and easier to use, the report warns that intelligence risks losing relevance unless it adapts deliberately. Three plausible scenarios are explored: secure conversational AI interfaces that allow users to query intelligence holdings directly; hyper-personalised intelligence products tailored to different decision-makers; and automated sanitisation and dissemination that expands the reach of intelligence across government and to partners. These opportunities promise greater timeliness, relevance and utility, but also carry major risks, including bias, hallucination, reduced explainability, weakened accountability, politicisation and the erosion of shared understanding. The report concludes that inaction is not a viable option. Instead, the NIC should redesign intelligence products around consumer needs, learn from allies and other knowledge sectors, strengthen workforce and governance arrangements, and integrate AI in ways that preserve human judgement, trust and national security advantage.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Intelligence, National Security, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and Research and Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
100. The Great AI Game: The Race That Isn't One.
- Author:
- Johannes Späth
- Publication Date:
- 07-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
- Abstract:
- This policy analysis maps the infrastructure underpinning Artificial Intelligence and the geopolitical competition forming around it. Its central argument is that this competition is not a single race in which all states are climbing the same ladder at different speeds. Rather, it is two distinct contests, with different rules, different stakes, and therefore different strategies for winning.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus