Political Geography: Global Focus

1. Grounding Women’s Land Rights: Towards equity and climate justice

Author:: Naomi Shadrack and Trimita Chakma
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This policy paper provides a critical examination of international commitments on women's land rights, evaluating progress and persistent challenges. It scrutinizes commitments made through the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Generation Equality Forum (GEF) Action Coalitions, revealing a substantial disconnect between ambitions and implementation.
Topic:: Climate Change, Land Rights, Equity, Climate Justice, and Gender Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

2. Leaving No One Behind: A green bargain for people and planet

Author:: Mathew Truscott and Erica Mason
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: With the increasing frequency of fires, floods, droughts and other extreme weather events, countries across the world are facing a new era of climate-linked crises. The international climate finance system – through mitigation, adaptation and potentially now through loss and damage – is seeking to reduce and address these impacts. In parallel, the humanitarian system is increasingly having to respond to climate-linked crisis, or the impacts of climate change on already fragile or conflict-affected states. Both systems are chronically underfunded and increasingly overstretched and must now make difficult choices regarding the way in which funding is raised, distributed and used. As the climate crisis intensifies, climate and humanitarian finance must find ways to plan and programme together more effectively. While many important debates over principles and mechanisms continue, this paper seeks to provide a broad guide for those engaging at the intersection of climate and humanitarian finance to understand both systems and generate discussion on how both sectors can better coordinate for a more effective response to the climate crisis.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Climate Finance, Weather, and Climate Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

3. Contemporary Terrorism: A Theoretical Perspective

Author:: Yoslán Silverio González
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Studying the impact of terrorism on international relations is of vital importance due to the implications not only local and regional but also within the international system. The phenomenon of terrorism is not exclusive to a region or a country, it can affect everyone in indirect ways. In this sense, it crosses borders and does not understand nationalities. The most dangerous thing is the treatment given to it in international forums, multilateral orga-nizations, and the media since it is presented as a threat to security, but to legitimize military actions by Western powers or to delegitimize governments “not prone to the West”.This article is based on a conceptual proposal that helps to understand the phenomenon of terrorism from a non-Western perspective, criticizing the positions of the United States in this regard. The main objective is to deepen the debate around the concept of terrorism, its erroneous link to Islam, and to nationalist and/or revolutionary movements. It is also pertinent to see how it has been legally defined by international law, through resolutions, conventions, and protocols of different multilateral organizations, including the African Union (AU).
Topic:: International Relations, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Global South, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

4. Reflections on WTO Reform: Lecture series by Ignacio Garcia Bercero

Author:: Ignacio Garcia Bercero
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: This special edition of our Expert Analysis presents four lectures (edited for publication) on World Trade Organization reform delivered by the author at LSE IDEAS during June-November 2022 and concluding in May 2023. The paper ends on a postscript reflecting on the perspectives on the different issues discussed in the lectures following the outcome of the 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO in February-March 2024, as well as the November 2024 re-election of Donald Trump—on the basis of a disruptive trade policy agenda.
Topic:: Reform, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, and WTO
Political Geography:: Global Focus

5. What Does It Mean for Agencies to Be Effective in a Changing Development Landscape?

Author:: Rachael Calleja, Sara Casadevall Bellés, and Beata Cichocka
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: For official bilateral development agencies, the realities of providing effective development cooperation are increasingly complex, as competing demands and changing international and domestic contexts are raising fundamental questions around what it means to be an effective agency. This paper explores the concept of agency effectiveness to demonstrate why agencies – and their leadership – should consider how their structures and processes interact with the changing landscape as part of their efforts to remain relevant and resilient. To do so, we consider how the current challenges facing agencies – including the need to respond to climate change, global instability, and changing domestic political environments – affect why agencies act, what they do, and how they do it. We then explore dominant understandings of agency effectiveness, which provide a lens for thinking about what it may mean for agencies to be effective in the years ahead. Overall, we suggest that the challenges facing development agencies in the changing landscape raise key issues for agencies to consider, particularly around what they prioritise, how they are structured, and the capabilities or ways of working needed to respond to complex demands. While there is unlikely to be a single approach for agencies looking to adapt to changing contexts, considering the implications of new – and future – pressures for the work of development agencies will be a necessary first step towards supporting their resilience and relevance in the years ahead.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

6. The Future of Official Development Assistance: Incremental Improvements or Radical Reform?

Author:: Masood Ahmed, Rachael Calleja, and Pierre Jacquet
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Over the last decade, donor country governments have faced new and additional demands for financing international challenges, including providing global public goods (GPGs) and addressing historically high numbers of refugees and humanitarian crises. They have partly done so by re-allocating their official development assistance (ODA) away from its original aim: to support poverty reduction and growth in developing countries. This has led to questions about the integrity and credibility of ODA. These questions are only likely to grow more pertinent in the coming decade because the pressures on ODA—and on public finances more broadly—are here to stay. ODA budgets are being cut in a number of traditional donor countries and what remains is increasingly being deployed to meet emerging needs beyond traditional development and to reflect a more national security perspective on development cooperation. The time is right, therefore, to ask whether the concept and accounting for ODA need to be modified to ensure that the needy and vulnerable it was designed to serve continue to be protected in the face of fiscal constraints and changing geopolitical circumstances. This report, a compendium on the future of ODA, aims to provide fresh thinking and inspire the action needed for ODA to remain relevant and effective. It brings together reflections and proposals from leading experts and practitioners, including the under-secretary-general and executive director of UNOPS to a former DAC chair, to inform policymakers. In this executive summary, we will introduce the key arguments from the compendium contributors. The contributions are organised into four key areas of discussion that reflect the main themes raised in this compendium: the rationale for ODA reform, the political and institutional realities shaping reform, using ODA for climate and leveraging private finance, and forward-looking proposals for reimagining ODA’s role and purpose.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Humanitarian Crisis, Donors, and Foreign Assistance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

7. Aligning International Banking Regulation with the SDGs

Author:: Liliana Rojas-Suarez
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Basel III—the international standard for banking regulation—has strengthened global financial stability but has also led to unintended consequences that may hinder progress toward key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper examines how Basel III’s regulatory framework may restrict bank lending to SMEs (impacting SDG 10) and constrain infrastructure finance (impacting SDG 8). Addressing these challenges requires refining risk assessment methodologies while preserving Basel III’s core objective: accurate risk evaluation. For SMEs, tailoring risk weights using local credit registry data can better reflect economic conditions in emerging markets. For infrastructure, recognizing it as a distinct asset class and leveraging credit risk mitigation tools could improve financing. Greater engagement from multilateral institutions, particularly the World Bank, is essential to advancing these solutions while maintaining financial stability.
Topic:: Regulation, Financial Stability, Banking, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Global Focus

8. Planned Relocation of Climate-Vulnerable Communities: Preparing Multilateral Development Banks

Author:: Steven Goldfinch and Samuel Huckstep
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Planned relocation of highly climate-vulnerable communities is becoming increasingly necessary as climate shocks become more frequent and intense. It is also becoming more feasible as modelling of future scenarios improves and adaptation limits become clearer. Despite this, many governments are underprepared for planning and implementing planned relocation projects. In the absence of an intergovernmentally agreed framework or set of principles on planned relocation, development finance, and specifically climate finance, is not well positioned to respond to this emerging demand from countries. This is heightened by a widespread absence of coherent domestic policies, and by institutional gaps in international assistance. Multilateral development banks, in particular, could be well-placed to fill this gap. They have extensive experience in undertaking relocation projects, including in contexts of climate adaptation. Multilateral development banks will increasingly field borrower country demand for both technical and financial assistance. They are, however, not yet prepared to meet this demand, nor are countries adequately equipped to make applications for support. This paper outlines emerging public policy regarding planned relocation, draws from existing standards on development-forced displacement and resettlement, and explores entry points for development financiers in providing technical assistance and finance. The paper proposes recommendations to multilateral development banks and the global climate funds on engaging in this emerging area.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Refugees, Displacement, Resettlement, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

9. Practical Guidance for Integrating Climate into WPS National Action Plans

Author:: Christina Vetter and Jessica Smith
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: In this practical guidance note, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security explores the capacity for National Action Plans on Women, Peace and Security (WPS NAPs) to be effective tools for national-level implementation of the WPS Agenda that is responsive to climate-related security risks. WPS NAPs have become the primary tool for national-level efforts to implement the WPS Agenda. To remain relevant and effective, NAPs must be responsive to the ever-changing security landscape and emerging threats to peace and security, like climate change. While the share of NAPs that mention climate change has slowly increased, many include just one cursory reference to climate change in the background section that does not comprehensively address the impacts of climate-related security risks across all four pillars of WPS or include specific actions or commitments related to climate in the NAP’s implementation framework. This report presents actionable policy recommendations for WPS NAPs to more meaningfully address climate change and related security risks throughout their design, drafting, and implementation. The report, authored by Christina Vetter and Dr. Jessica Smith, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10. Advancing Gender, Climate, and Security in the UN Security Council: A Blueprint for Action

Author:: Jess Keller
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:: In this policy brief, the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security presents recommendations for advancing gender, climate, and security in the UN Security Council and opportunities for Member States and other relevant stakeholders to drive progress on these interconnected challenges. Despite growing recognition of how climate change multiplies risk and poses a threat to international peace and security, efforts to make climate change a standing item on the Security Council’s agenda have failed. Climate change disproportionately impacts women and threatens their security, yet frameworks like the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda have been slow to integrate climate considerations into thematic resolutions and National Action Plans (NAPs) on WPS. The international community must rapidly scale-up efforts to bridge these policy gaps and holistically address challenges at the nexus of gender, climate, and security. This policy brief explores best practices and offers specific recommendations for the Security Council, Member States, and international actors to integrate gender-responsive climate considerations into global peace and security efforts. The report, authored by Jess Keller, was made possible with support from the Embassy of Denmark in Washington, D.C.
Topic:: Climate Change, Women, Peace, UN Security Council, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11. AI Governance and Geopolitical Challenges: What’s Next after Italy’s G7 Presidency?

Author:: Federica Marconi
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Profound technological developments have marked recent years, coupled with increasing geopolitical instability and economic fragmentation driven by rising tensions between major powers. Emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), have been at the core of global competition due to their potential for enhancing productivity and fostering innovation. The technological race has started to extend also to the definition of global AI governance frameworks, with the United States, the EU and China pursuing divergent regulatory approaches and striving to influence countries, especially in the Global South, that are looking at the existing models for their national regulatory systems. Against this backdrop, international fora such as the G7 are called upon to play a key role in fostering dialogue on how to reconcile these divergent perspectives and shape global governance for AI.
Topic:: International Political Economy, Governance, G20, G7, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Italy and Global Focus

12. Dollar Colonisation: The Destructive Policy Implications of Modern Monetary Theory

Author:: Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: Modern monetary theory argues that all governments that issue their own currency have the same policy space. The present paper argues that this position is wrong. For it to be valid, abstraction must be made from the gravitational force of the US dollar that stems from its backing mass of securities and is transmitted through international investment flows. On recognition of this gravitational force, it becomes clear that the huge size disparity separating the US financial market from those of other markets, and most notably those of the EMEs, translates into an equally huge disparity regarding policy space. The policy implications for EME governments are that they should, where possible, join their financial markets into regional blocs of sufficient sizes as can give their regional currencies enough backing mass to allow them to resist the gravitational pull of the dollar. Only by pooling their currency sovereignty can EME governments retain some scope for pursuing policies independently of those pursued by the US government. On the contrary, any such scope is destroyed if EME governments in countries with small financial markets follow the MMT's advice to retain their local currencies because that advice condemns these currencies to entrapment in the dollar's gravitational field and even possibly to outright dollar colonisation.
Topic:: Currency, Dollar, Colonization, and Modern Monetary Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

13. IMF, Structural Adjustment, and Poverty: A Cross-National Difference-in-Differences Analysis, 1980-2018

Author:: Shih-Yen Pan, Lawrence P. King, and Elias Nosrati
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been one of the world’s most powerful international organizations in setting the parameters for economic reforms in the developing world. In this study, using data from 1980-2018 from 57 countries, we test competing hypotheses surrounding the impact of the IMF’s lending programs on poverty incidence in participant countries. Departing from the prevailing practice of relying on instrumental variables, we employ a novel difference-in-differences approach that ensures clean comparisons between “treatment” and “control” units based on their program participation histories. Besides providing a quantitative estimate of the average program effect, we evaluate whether the IMF’s alleged anti-poverty focus in recent decades has made any difference. We find that IMF program participation leads to large increases (3.6-5.7 percentage points) in the proportion of a country’s population living under the $3.65/day and $6.85/day international poverty lines (2017 PPP) and the countryspecific Societal Poverty Line. We also find that the poverty reduction measures incorporated by the IMF into its programs have not been effective in mitigating the poverty-increasing program effects. Overall, our findings show that IMF programs have been detrimental to the welfare of vulnerable populations in participant countries.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Organization, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

14. Investing in a Green Future: Finance, Industrial Policy and the Green transition

Author:: Ramaa Vasudevan
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: We present a framework to assess green climate finance and the pathways to building a climate aligned financial system. This would involve the strategic reorientation of central bank interventions, national development banks and multilateral and regional banks and coherent purposive collaborations between these institutions and interventions to decisively reshape the contemporary global financial system that is out of tune with the long-term imperatives of climate action. Aligning finance to climate goals at the necessary scale, pace and direction requires the calibration of financial flows across three axes: ‘public-private’; ‘real-financial’ and ‘national-international’. Along the first axis the naturedepleting, climate imperiling logic of short-term private profitability needs to be contained in order to pursue the public priorities of climate action. Along the second axis, policy efforts have to be geared to ensuring that financial flows are financing investments in climate mitigation and adaptation and not simply providing more fodder for the global portfolio glut and financial accumulation. Finally, along the third axis warding global funding and support on appropriate terms has to be provided to the most vulnerable countries while buttressing national ownership of the green mission.
Topic:: Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

15. The Distribution of Climate Finance among Annex-II Countries: A CBDR-RC Approach for Partial Funding of the Developing Countries

Author:: Shouvik Chakraborty
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Developing nations face the significant challenge of reconciling their efforts in climate change mitigation with the urgent need for financial resources to adapt to climate-related disasters, achieve sustainable development, and stabilize their economies. The financial requirements for addressing climate impacts span various sectors, including energy transition, energy efficiency, transportation, agriculture, forestry, other land use (AFOLU), and adaptation strategies. Estimates provided by reputable international organizations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suggest that the annual global climate finance needs may range from $4.2 trillion to $5.7 trillion. Within this framework, the share allocated to developing countries is estimated to constitute approximately $1.9 trillion to $2.0 trillion annually, mainly to support mitigation efforts. It is widely acknowledged that developing countries are unlikely to meet these financial demands independently. Consequently, it is projected that around $1 trillion must be sourced from advanced economies, particularly the AnnexII countries. This paper introduces a methodology grounded in the principles of common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability (CBDR-RC). It facilitates a structured distribution of financing responsibilities among Annex II nations. The methodology incorporates the notion of historical responsibility, quantified as carbon debt, while also measuring capability through a balanced consideration of the wealth and gross domestic product (GDP) of the AnnexII countries. The analysis conducted reveals that the United States of America (USA) is required to contribute nearly half of the total financial obligations among the AnnexII countries, with the remaining funds to be apportioned among other nations within this group.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Climate Finance, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16. Navigating Debt Sustainability: An In-Depth Analysis of the IMF's Debt Sustainability Framework and Its Critique

Author:: Hasan Cömert, Güney Düzçay, and T. Sabri Öncü
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper evaluates the IMF's debt sustainability analyses (DSAs), delving into their methodologies and implications and highlighting their problems. Since 2002, the DSAs have been the cornerstone of the IMF programs, providing the primary analytical tool to justify and determine the paths and targets specified. Although the DSAs evolved significantly over time, they have severe foundational problems. They rely heavily on strong assumptions and staff judgments, and thereby, they are primarily non-transparent. Secondly, there are significant issues regarding the conduct of DSAs. They have grown excessively complex, hindering consensus on components without necessarily improving assessment quality. Thirdly, the IMF makes very high-stakes decisions with low precision, relying on persistent over-optimism in growth forecasting and paving the way for tighter fiscal policies. Fourthly, the debt dynamics equation of DSAs is inconsistent with stock flow dynamics because it focuses heavily on the primary balance as the main driver. Fifthly, the IMF's framework does not pay enough attention to the underlying reasons for accumulating external debt in developing nations. It often treats external borrowing as a substitute for domestic debt without accounting for the asymmetric international financial architecture.
Topic:: Debt, Fiscal Policy, Sustainability, and IMF
Political Geography:: Global Focus

17. National Dialogues x Transitional Justice

Author:: Sylvia Servaes and David Bloomfield
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Berghof Foundation
Abstract:: In the aftermath of conflict, National Dialogue and Transitional Justice can both contribute to reconciliation and prevent the recurrence of violence. But what is the nexus between the two? What are key shared characteristics, goals, and complementarities? In this paper, Sylvia Servaes and David Bloomfield explore the interlinkages between National Dialogues and Transitional Justice. They also discuss open questions on how both processes can be further integrated in practice to enhance their relevance and effectiveness. Over the last two decades, National Dialogues have been increasingly recognised as a comprehensive tool for preventing violent conflicts and reaching inclusive political settlements. However, questions remain on how to best integrate certain topics in the design of National Dialogues and how to meaningfully include specific societal groups. The series “National Dialogues at crossroads” aims at addressing this gap. It compiles lessons learned and recommendations on four cross-cutting issues: climate change, digitalisation, protest movements, and Transitional Justice.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, Post-Conflict, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:: Global Focus

18. Introducing the Response to Sponsorship Dataset: Determinants of Responses by Target States to State Sponsors of Rebel Groups

Author:: Elif Hatun Kiliçbeylşa
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Empirical studies on the sponsorship of rebel groups have focused on understanding why and how supporter states help rebels, whether this engagement benefits the rebels, and the effects of sponsorship on the conflict outcomes. By comparison, the responses of target states to sponsorship behavior have been neglected despite the possibility of interstate crises, disputes, and conflict due to the sponsorship. This study introduces a new dataset, the Response Sponsorship Dataset (RSD), which measures target states’ responses toward state sponsors of rebel groups intending to terminate the sponsorship. The data includes information on the responses of 58 target states to 102 supporter states concerning the support of 150 rebel groups between 1991 and 2010, comprising 3719 observations. The RSD identifies diplomatic, economic, militarized, domestic, covert responses and inaction as target state responses as well as classifying them as coercive or non-coercive based on target states’ foreign policy engagements with sponsors. The RSD provides new opportunities for researchers and policymakers to analyze target responses with regards to conflict management and foreign policy as well as promising future research on support termination.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Alliance, Rivalry, Proxy Groups, and State Sponsorship
Political Geography:: Global Focus

19. Mediatised Terrorism: East-West Narratives of Risk

Author:: Seda Çolakoğlu
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: There is a growing body of literature in the social sciences that suggests that we live in a world surrounded by narratives that construct and interpret particular understandings of reality, that serve to make sense of the world. Following the understanding that everyone and everything has a narrative in the world we live in; it would not be wrong to say that these narratives appear in every shape and dimension. For instance, since the media also has a story to tell, we hear, watch, see and witness a wide variety of stories from the media. The media is therefore the producer and distributor of narratives. However, this emphasis has a deeper implication, namely that news stories are not simply a spiral of words describing events. This is because the media convey news to the receiving public by representing, constructing, and reconstructing it (through narratives). We frequently witness about various terrorist acts across the world via media. Saira Ali accurately examines this particular topic. Her book is for those who are concerned about how terrorism news is presented to audiences through the media and how it is made sense of in a country-specific and context-specific way. This approach also allows for a contextualisation of the construction of terrorism news narratives, within different cultural, social, and political contexts (p.5,10). The author embarks on an intellectual journey of curiosity regarding the mediatisation of terrorism in two distinct worlds. These worlds are Australia, where the risk of terrorism is quite low but it has taken drastic legal measures out of fear of global terrorism after 9/11, and Pakistan, with a more grey policy altough caught in the spiral of a complex terrorist atmospher. In this way, Ali’s intellectual effort is to interrogate the narrative that global terrorism is mostly damaging to Western civilisation by including the East in her analysis. Ali’s analysis is basically founded on an argument that “the reality of terrorism is constructed through discourse” (p. 6).
Topic:: Terrorism, Media, Book Review, and Narrative
Political Geography:: Global Focus

20. Diaspora Organisations in International Affairs

Author:: Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Diasporas and their organisations, which traditionally aimed to serve their interest in the homeland and abroad, have long been studied under several social science disciplines, such as anthropology, sociology, political science, and geography. At the beginning of the 2000s, for instance, human and political geographers started to focus on diaspora realizing that it is a geographical concept, which addresses various geographical themes such as dispersion, boundaries, territory (as homeland), and identity. The “geographical turn” contributed to the concept theoretically, and also to transnationalism and migration studies empirically by which cases were reconsidered through the lens of geographical concepts, such as space, place, and time. Similar to geographers’ arguments, diaspora organisations (DO) -as a distinct form of collectivity- and their activities are very relevant to what we study in International Relations (IR), especially when it comes to exploring DOs’ role that transcends state borders in development, human rights, conflict, and peace. In that regard, attempts to introduce novel contributions from various disciplines have the potential to significantly enhance our comprehension of the theory of diaspora and its associated organizations.
Topic:: International Affairs, Diaspora, Book Review, and Organizations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

21. The Impact of Stereotyping on International Cyber Norm‑making: Navigating Misperceptions and Building Trust

Author:: Fan Yang
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Over the past three decades, cyberspace – a digital realm shaped by both technological and social dynamics – has evolved into a domain where a wide range of human activities now take place. These activities are marked by their anonymity, which complicates attribution, and their instantaneity, which challenges timely regulation. To address these challenges, states focus on two approaches: applying existing laws and creating new ones. While there is a general consensus that cyberspace should be governed by the rule of law, including international law, the application of existing legal frameworks to cyberspace remains an evolving challenge both in terms of state practice and academic discourse. At the same time, the international community has consistently sought to develop new norms to promote good governance in cyberspace. Against this backdrop, states – especially those with advanced cyber capabilities – are engaging in a competitive game of norm-making, striving to exert influence in shaping international rules to govern cyberspace. As part of this process, states often categorise each other by trying to highlight their counterparts’ most distinct characteristics. While such labelling is common in diplomatic interactions, it is particularly problematic in the context of international cyber norm-making. Labels reflect and reinforce stereotypes, which often oversimplify the complexities of states’ behavioural patterns in cyberspace and their underlying logic. States are thus roughly grouped by opposing indicators, such as those viewing cyberspace as a global commons versus sovereign territory, those advocating for an interconnected free Internet versus a fragmented “splinternet”, or those favouring multistakeholderism versus multilateralism as the dominant approach to the governance of cyberspace. Once established, these stereotypes are difficult to dismantle and can lead to distorted perceptions that obstruct constructive dialogue. This GCSP Policy Brief aims to identify the potential security challenges posed by stereotyping in international cyber norm-making processes. It then illustrates the policy implications of this problem and offers policy recommendations.
Topic:: Security, Cybersecurity, Norms, Cyberspace, and Trust
Political Geography:: Global Focus

22. Managing Global Biological Risks: Towards a Security-Health Coordination Framework

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros, Jeselyn, and Mely Caballero-Anthony
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The task of securing the world against biological risks is complicated by enforcement and information challenges. A security-health coordination framework is crucial for securing cooperation among a diverse set of actors with different but converging mandates.
Topic:: Security, Biosecurity, Crisis Management, Risk, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

23. Social contracts and the UN’s “Common Goals”: conceptualising a new role for international organisations

Author:: Markus Loewe and Tina Zintl
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Researchers, policymakers and the representatives of international organisations increasingly use the term “social contract” to describe relations between societal groups and a state. The United Nations (UN) Secretary-General, for example, has declared that “now is the time to renew the social contract between Governments and their people and within societies” in his report Our common agenda (UN, 2021, p. 5). Likewise, the Director General of the International Labour Organization (ILO) has recently issued a report Towards a renewed social contract (ILO, 2024). The question is whether all those applying the term “social contract” have a common understanding of its meaning. We suggest defining a social contract as the “entirety of explicit or implicit agreements between all relevant societal groups and the sovereign (i.e. the government or any other actor in power), defining their rights and obligations toward each other” (Loewe, Zintl, & Houdret, 2021). Today, all countries with some form of government have national social contracts, but there are wide variations between them. For instance, some social contracts are more inclusive than others, giving more rights to society. Some treat different societal groups differently, depending on their respective power and the interests of the government. And, crucially, only some social contracts consider, at least to some degree, the interests of those who are, by definition or because of their limited power, unable to voice their concerns in any renegotiation of the social contract – children, future generations, the environment, foreigners and marginalised social groups. The UN Secretary-General’s report rightly complains that people in many countries feel increasingly alienated from the social contract (UN, 2021, p. 22) and that social contracts ignore the rights of future generations. In many countries, social contracts give rights to some influential groups in society to use available resources without consideration for less powerful groups, future generations and environmental concerns. International organisations thus have four important roles to play. First, they can support the national process of social contract renegotiations: ease the dialogue between all interest groups inside member countries, encourage the involvement of less powerful actors and provide neutral and open fora for the negotiations. Second, they can engage in a dialogue with member states that are reluctant to reform social contracts, emphasising that such reform can mitigate or help to prevent terrorism, violent protest and mass migration. Third, international organisations can prepare themselves to get involved when shocks happen in particular member countries and use the momentum to foster substantial reforms. Fourth, international organisations should continue building supra-national social contracts. All too often, the parties of national social contracts negotiate unsustainable rules at national level that, for instance, expose workers to health hazards or harm the environment, with the argument that they have to be able to compete with other countries. International agreements are therefore important to establish minimum norms and standards, prevent a race to the bottom and reinforce multilateralism.
Topic:: International Organization, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Social Contract
Political Geography:: Global Focus

24. Global health at a crossroads: policy recommendations in light of the Lancet Global Health 2050 Report

Author:: Christoph Strupat, Marco Schäferhoff, Martin Siegel, and Anna-Katharina Hornidge
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: At a time of global crisis and competing priorities, investing in health is among the most impactful and cost-effective decisions governments and stakeholders can make. Beyond being a fundamental right, health is a catalyst for growth, stability and resilience – particularly in uncertain times. The new Global Health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (Global Health 2050) report (Jamison et al., 2024) of the Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (the Commission) builds on a legacy of evidence-driven reports to provide strategies for making health a cross-cutting enabler of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Global Health 2050 provides a roadmap for further health improvements in all countries by mid-century, arguing that by 2050 countries can reduce by 50% the probability of premature death (PPD) in their populations. The Commission calls this goal “50 by 50”. Germany has solidified its role in global health through significant investments in the health sector and by designating global health as a political priority, as demonstrated by its Global Health Strategy and the inclusion of global health as one of the core themes of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Given this political priority, it is essential to assess the implications of the Global Health 2050 report for Germany’s global health agenda, especially as global health stands at a crossroads following the withdrawal of the United States (US) from the World Health Organization (WHO) and cuts to its global health programmes. Therefore, the aim of this policy brief is to build upon the Commission’s findings and draw from scientific evidence to provide key recommendations for Germany’s global health agenda. Five recommendations have been synthesised that align with Germany’s global health engagement and offer promising strategies to help achieve the 50 by 50 goal: 1. Sustain or ideally increase funding for the Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria at the upcoming replenishment conferences and strengthen Germany’s global health leadership through strong bilateral support, investments in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR) and better interministerial coordination. 2. Reconsider non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in future strategic direction of German international cooperation by reducing financial and geo-graphical barriers to access to medicines and addressing key NCD risk factors. 3. Promote health taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages that can serve as an effective strategy to improve public health and generate domestic revenue. 4. Increase funding for R&D in neglected diseases. Expand regional manufacturing, and enhance global health innovation coordination to strength-en global health security and reduce dependence on external supply chains. 5. Nepal serves as a good example of Germany’s bilateral health and social protection support: advancing the 50 by 50 goal could be achieved by strengthening national health insurance, addressing climate risks, expanding health taxes and enhancing pharmaceutical access through the Arrow mechanism.
Topic:: Development, Investment, Public Health, Global Health, and Disease
Political Geography:: Global Focus

25. Enhancing public works programmes: sustainable impact through participatory asset creation and digitalisation

Author:: Francesco Burchi and Tekalign Gutu Sakketa
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Public works programmes (PWPs) are widely used social protection instruments in low- and middle-income countries. Participants carry out temporary, labour-intensive works in exchange for cash or in-kind compensation. The available empirical evidence indicates that these programmes are usually effective in improving outcomes such as food security and earnings in the short term, but these positive effects rarely persist in the long term. Our knowledge of PWPs’ effectiveness is, however, incomplete as scholars have mostly examined programme impacts through the wage channel, largely neglecting the skill-development and, especially, the asset channels. PWP participants engage in the construction of assets, such as roads, check dams and sewage systems, that could provide important benefits for the whole community. Without assessing these effects, it is normal to arrive at the general (biased) conclusion that cash transfers (CTs) are always more cost-effective than PWPs. Moreover, the effectiveness of PWPs largely depends on programme design, implementation and context. Based on the existing empirical evidence and our recent fieldwork to analyse Malawi’s PWP, this policy brief provides the following policy recommendations for how to enhance the potential of these programmes. • Policy-makers should design PWPs to guarantee stable, reliable employment; set wages not higher than market levels but high enough to incentivise participation; ensure transparency in the targeting, possibly by involving communities and at the sametime avoiding elite capture; align the timing of work cycles with local agricultural calendars; and assign tasks in a way that reduces travel burdens,especially for women. • Policy-makers should promote active community participation in the identification and maintenance of the assets created through PWPs. Evidence points to the importance of community participation for the implementation of higher quality infrastructure and better long-term maintenance. Only in this way, can these assets provide sustainable benefits not just for programme participants, but for the entire community. Approaches like those used in Ethiopia and Malawi can serve as models to enhance active community participation in the programme cycle. • Digitalisation of PWPs (and social protection ingeneral) should be promoted as it offers great advantages, but specific measures should be adopted to avoid their negative consequences: 1. The construction of a digital registry of beneficiaries is a great tool to reach the intended beneficiaries and coordinate the various schemes. Development cooperation actors should provide technical support for the creation and updating of these databases, then leave them in the hands of national institutions. 2. The digitalisation of reporting systems for work activities is likely to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the information reported. To achieve this, it is essential to provide the “digitisers” withproper training. 3. It is important to move from physical cash payments to e-payments, but it is firstly necessary to ensure adequate digital literacy through training. Moreover, to compensate for the impossibility to interact with programme officials at the time of payment, PWPs should include complaint handling points, as is done in India.
Topic:: Development, Digitalization, Assets, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

26. Can guarantees effectively leverage financing for SMEs in low- and middle-income countries?

Author:: Bao-We-Wal Bambe
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will require significant financing and investment, particularly as growing challenges from climate events highlight the insufficiency of public funds to meet the 2030 Agenda (World Economic Forum 2024). Private capital for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) surged in recent years, with significant commitments from multilateral development banks (MDBs). However, the financing gap to achieve the SDGs remains sizable, highlighting the need for greater effort to mobilise much larger private capital for sustainable development. In recent years, guarantees have emerged as a key leveraging mechanism. They are designed to mitigate high investment risks to support private capital mobilisation in LMICs. However, despite some progress, guarantees are used sparingly, suggesting considerable scope for increasing their scale, as highlighted by the G20 Independent Expert Group (IEG). This Policy Brief examines whether guarantees can serve as an effective leveraging mechanism for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This is especially so because SMEs remain largely hampered by poor access to finance, despite their key role in providing jobs for the local population and contributing to economic growth. Moreover, in the face of climate change, SME adaptation requires new investments in climate-resistant technologies and clean energies, highlighting the need for additional financing amid severe constraints on access to capital. Guarantees can complement other leveraging mechanisms, further easing financing constraints for SMEs in LMICs. Guarantees can absorb some of the risks associated with investment, offering financial institutions greater security. This added security can, in turn, help improve access to capital for SMEs. On the other hand, they can also help catalyse private sector investment in LMICs. Recognising both the potential benefits and short-comings of guarantees, this Policy Brief provides the following policy recommendations on how guarantees could be extended efficiently to the SME sector in LMICs. • Guarantees should be directed at financial institu-tions to mitigate portfolio risk and actively promote lending to small projects or SMEs in high-risk sectors, particularly those with the potential to generate substantial economic, environmental, or social benefits. • Complement guarantees with additional measures to improve SMEs’ financial management, enhance risk assessment, and strengthen technical capacity through professional training and advisory services. • Implement partial credit guarantees to require financial institutions to retain a share of the risk, thereby reducing moral hazard and promoting rigorous analyses of borrowers’ creditworthiness. Complement these guarantees with conditionalities and monitoring criteria, such as regular reporting, to ensure the incrementality and additionality of guaranteed financing. Enhance the harmonisation of guarantees with other leveraging mechanisms, improve coordination among MDBs and DFIs, and streamline guarantee frameworks to achieve greater efficiency. • Recognise that guarantees alone cannot address structural vulnerabilities and institutional weakness in LMICs; a long-term commitment from decision-makers is essential to improve institutional and economic performance.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Investment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

27. A new development paradigm and strategy for the OECD (and beyond): what should the ‘D’ of OECD stand for?

Author:: Andy Sumner, Stephan Klingebiel, and Arief Anshory Yusuf
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the evolving role of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in addressing global development challenges in the mid-2020s. At a time when a new development strategy is being drafted for the OECD, we provide a fresh perspective by exploring the tensions inherent in the definition of “development” and asking whose development the OECD seeks to support. Historically, the OECD extended its remit beyond its membership through mechanisms such as Official Development Assistance (ODA). However, considering the increasing prominence of South–South cooperation, private sector investment and intensifying geopolitical competition, ODA alone is insufficient for sustainable development needs, and for many countries of the Global South ODA no longer matters as much as it used to due to the growth of domestic resources. One of the most significant shifts within the OECD itself in recent years is in its identity, largely as a result of its expanding membership. This now totals 38 countries, including some from the Global South, and this trend is set to continue, with a set of Southern countries currently in the accession process. While this enlargement may strengthen the OECD’s relevance in a multipolar world, it also challenges the organisation’s traditional identity as a “club of mostly rich countries”, as The Economist has often referred to it. Employing a novel 2x2 matrix framework, we delineate four strategic scenarios for OECD development strategy: (i) “traditional development” within OECD member states (D-within), (ii) traditional development beyond OECD membership (D-beyond), (iii) “frontier development” within OECD member states, and (iv) frontier development beyond the organisation’s membership. The use of the term “traditional development” refers to an aggregate growth orientation of development without reference to inclusivity or sustainability. “Frontier development” is then the converse. The authors argue for an OECD development strategy that bridges “D-within” and “D-beyond”, by acknowledging the transnational spillover effects of the domestic policies of OECD countries on the Global South. Further, across the matrix framework, we advocate for the OECD to strengthen its engagement with the analysis and promotion of policy coherence for sustainable development (PCSD) as a means of providing global leadership in sustainable development. In theory, promoting PCSD necessitates the integration of economic, social and environmental dimensions across all policy areas, alongside a commitment to addressing long-term and transboundary impacts. Further, we highlight the imperative of engaging non-member states to enhance the inclusivity and relevance of the OECD’s development strategy within an increasingly multipolar global order. In sum, we argue that the OECD is at a pivotal juncture. Its capacity to adapt and redefine its developmental mandate will determine its future relevance in the global governance architecture. By prioritising leadership on global sustainable development, PSCD and an inclusive approach to non-OECD members, the OECD has the potential to serve as a transformative force.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, and OECD
Political Geography:: Global Focus

28. Financing for development: from Monterrey to Seville

Author:: Stephan Klingebiel, Jorge A. Pérez-Pineda, and Kathrin Berensmann
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The United Nations financing for development process, including the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) in Seville in 2025, is an important building block to foster global cooperation amid the current geopolitical tensions and multiple crises that have led to increased development financing needs on the one hand, and increased spending on the other, with the OECD estimating that the financing gap in funding required for developing countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals is $3.9 trillion per year. Against this backdrop, a coordinated international effort is essential to increase the scale and effectiveness of development financing and promote sustainable development globally, particularly in line with the 2030 Agenda. The overarching goal of the FfD process, including FfD4, is to mobilise adequate financial resources for the sustainable development of countries in the Global South, and to design appropriate architectures for development and sustainable finance. The FfD process is unique in that it takes a holistic approach, involving all sources of development finance and all public and private stakeholders. In this respect, the FfD process has an extraordinary convening power. The purpose of this Discussion Paper is to provide meaningful input to the preparatory process of FfD4 by offering insights into key challenges, opportunities and innovative approaches. The paper aims to contribute to the broader dialogue on financing for sustainable development and support informed decision-making for a robust and inclusive development agenda beyond 2030. Topics range from reforms of official development assistance, innovative approaches to private-sector and sustainable finance, and innovative reforms of multilateral development banks.
Topic:: Development, United Nations, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and OECD
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Global South

29. How to deal with the current debt crisis of developing countries?

Author:: Jürgen K. Zattler
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Many countries are still struggling with high and rising debt levels. The economic impact of the pandemic, as well as some longer-term structural factors, explain this situation. The key problem is the high level of debt service relative to government revenues, which makes it difficult to address growing development, social and climate challenges. As this is a particular problem for low-income countries (LICs) and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), the focus should be on these countries. But even within this group, the situation is not uniform. A differentiated approach with different components is therefore needed, depending on countries’ individual situations and their own priorities and choices. There have been many contributions to this debate and proposals on how to address the current problems. This paper builds on some of those contributions presenting a practical and coherent approach to address the current debt crisis which focuses as far as possible on incentives for debtor countries and private creditors. Importantly, a distinction should be made between countries with high debt levels that are at risk of debt distress and those with liquidity problems. Therefore, debt sustainability assessments (DSAs) are needed to decide which countries (a) are not in debt distress, (b) have an insolvency problem, and (c) have a liquidity problem. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank should be asked to classify all LICs and LMICs accordingly, based on updated DSAs, using a prudent approach with conservative projections. These DSAs must emphasise debt service indicators. For countries with liquidity problems, they need to identify those countries where the problem is of a longer-term nature, with a risk that the liquidity squeeze will turn into acute debt distress. All LICs and LMICs facing insolvency or liquidity problems should be offered a moratorium similar to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) to give them breathing space (of 2-3 years). The expectation is that this would help countries with liquidity problems to maintain basic social and economic services until market conditions improve or debt relief is implemented. In cases where debt service remains high after the moratorium expires, the country would be expected to request debt relief. Countries at risk of default would be expected to use the period of the moratorium to engage promptly in restructuring discussions and to prepare negotiations with creditors on a debt relief programme. The IMF would make its resources conditional on a suspension of debt service payments. The question is whether private creditors, including sovereign bondholders, should be required to participate. It is suggested that a distinction be made between two categories of countries. For countries at risk of insolvency, including those with longer-term liquidity problems, the moratorium should be conditional on private participation on comparable terms, as their creditworthiness is likely to be affected anyway. In contrast, with countries facing short-term liquidity problems the approach should be more flexible. While pressure on private creditors to join a standstill should be maximised, this should be complemented by strong incentives. Countries with unsustainable debt would request treatment under a reformed G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment (CF) with the option of a more comprehensive debt relief arrangement (“CF+”), including the following enhanced or new components: • At the beginning of the process, countries would have to present a “Just Green Transition Programme” (JGTP), monitored by the IMF and the World Bank. • The CF+ would be accompanied by more comprehensive debt relief, thus creating more fiscal space to allow the country to finance transformational and social investments. Debt service after rescheduling should be based on DSAs, which pay greater attention to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) investments and countries’ particular circumstances, leaving countries with substantial room to absorb shocks. The objective would be to limit the debt burden to external creditors as a share of revenue after rescheduling to around 10-15 per cent. • For those countries where a large part of the debt service will be due to multilateral creditors, the involvement of multilateral institutions should be considered. This should be the case for those multilateral creditors which are not willing, or able, to provide positive net flows at highly concessional terms. • The issuance of “Brady-like” bonds could be considered for specific country cases. The issuance of Brady-like bonds could be an incentive to maximise private creditor participation in exchanging old debt for new bonds with a significant discount or “haircut”.
Topic:: Debt, Development, Sustainability, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

30. Macroprudential policies and private domestic investment in developing countries: an instrumental variables approach

Author:: Bao-We-Wal Bambe
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This paper examines the effect of macroprudential policies on private domestic investment using a panel of 87 developing countries from 2000 to 2017. Our instrumental variables strategy exploits the geographic diffusion of macroprudential policies across countries, with the idea that reforms in neighbouring countries can affect the adoption or strengthening of domestic reforms through peer pressure or imitation effects. The findings indicate that the tightening of macro-prudential policies significantly reduces private domestic investment. This effect holds for both instruments targeting borrowers and those targeting financial institutions, and is subject to heterogeneity depending on several economic and institutional factors. The transmission channel analysis highlights that the negative impact of macroprudential policies on investment is primarily driven by a reduction in credit supply and financial inclusion.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Finance, Investment, and Macroprudential Policies
Political Geography:: Global Focus

31. Recent Global Business Cycles: Characteristics and Implications

Author:: Sang-Ha Yoon
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: The analysis of economic patterns from late 1999 to 2023 reveals significant changes in how the world's economies connect with each other. Our research shows a clear trend toward more varied economic patterns, with regional and country-specific factors becoming more important than global influences. This shift became particularly noticeable after the COVID-19 pandemic, where we saw global factors having less influence on national economies than before. The study's findings have important implications for economic policy making. Countries need to develop flexible approaches that can adapt to both global and regional economic changes. At the same time, they must strengthen regional economic cooperation while maintaining domestic economic stability. The findings also highlight the importance of building better systems for responding to economic crises, while considering both regional and global factors in economic policy decisions. These changes suggest that the global economy is becoming more complex, with different regions and countries showing more independent movement than before. As this trend continues, the ability to balance global, regional, and domestic economic relationships will become increasingly important for maintaining economic stability and promoting growth.
Topic:: Economics, Business, Economic Growth, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

32. Funding Climate Mobility Projects: Key Players and Strategies for Growth

Author:: Lawrence Huang and Samuel Davidoff-Gore
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: While international donors have long supported responses to displacement driven by natural disasters, climate change is reshaping the challenge at hand. It can worsen extreme weather events such as storms while also posing slower-onset threats such as desertification and sea level rise, which can directly and indirectly force people to move. The growing scale and complexity of climate-related mobility thus requires a paradigm shift in global funding for responses. This issue brief provides an overview of how development funders are responding to climate mobility issues, highlights entry points for donors interested in engaging on this issue, and outlines common barriers and strategies to overcome them. It examines development assistance provided via both bilateral cooperation and multilateral funding, through multilateral development banks, global climate funds, and more. This research draws on insights shared by representatives of donor governments, philanthropic foundations, and multilateral development banks as part of a multi-year Donor Community of Practice on Climate Mobility.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Migration, Governance, Mobility, and Climate Refugees
Political Geography:: Global Focus

33. Advancing locally led evaluations: Practical insights for humanitarian contexts

Author:: Hana Abul Husn and Dorothy Mae Albiento
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: Evaluation is widely recognised as a way to learn and to hold humanitarian action to account. Over time, the field of evaluation has evolved because of criticisms of traditional or classic models that are seen as top-down, quantitative and highly technical. Many evaluators are urgently calling for a focus on social justice and equity, as they feel the role and power of local voices in evaluation needs to be re-examined. Alongside humanitarian sector-wide discussions on the need to decolonise and localise aid is a call to re-examine and reframe evaluation practice. Locally led humanitarian action and the growing attention to accountability to populations affected by crisis both support the case that local evaluators are better able to lead community-centred evaluations based on their deeper understanding of local contexts, cultures and values. The overarching objective of this scoping paper is to raise the visibility and accessibility of locally led evaluation among relevant stakeholders in humanitarian contexts. We hope that it can be more easily applied and recognised as having greater value. The paper summarises the opinions and experiences of evaluation stakeholders captured during informal discussions, interviews and scoping events, as well as evidence from relevant literature. We explore what is meant by locally led evaluation and the principles underpinning it, as well as why, how, and by and for whom evaluations are carried out. More specifically, we suggest how evaluation stakeholders can meaningfully engage with and participate in locally led evaluations.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Accountability, and Evaluation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34. Practical steps to advance locally led evaluation

Author:: Hana Abul Husn and Dorothy Mae Albiento
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: Stakeholders working to advance a locally led evaluation agenda in humanitarian contexts should consider several enablers (what has worked), barriers (major challenges blocking the way) and practical solutions. In this section, we draw together the reflections from our discussions with evaluation stakeholders to outline practical steps. These steps do not form an exhaustive list of what can be done to advance locally led evaluations, they do not need to be followed in a fixed order, and they might not be applicable in every context. However, they can be used as a starting or continuation point to inspire action. The practical steps are divided into long-term strategies for the overall evaluation function (LTS) and more immediate actions for ongoing or upcoming evaluations. LTS are grouped under three topics: Shaping evaluation culture, policies and strategies; Developing know-how; Establishing and maintaining critical relationships.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Stakeholders, Monitoring, and Evaluation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

35. Future research and learning: Shaping agendas to inform more people centred humanitarian action

Author:: Veronique Barbelet
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: In recent years, several critical reform agendas - localisation, accountability to affected populations (AAP) and inclusion – have built momentum at the heart of a push for quality humanitarian action grounded in equity and the experiences of crisis-affected people. Despite this progress, ALNAP ’s recent review of outcomes and practices highlights the inadequacy of current methodologies and a particularly weak evidence base around these reforms (although better for localisation). It revealed that while it is likely good practices do exist in the field, they often have not been fully evidenced, researched or widely disseminated. The review also underlined the need to reflect on and better inform research and learning.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Reform, Accountability, Localization, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

36. Connecting not conflating: Opportunities and risks of merging the localisation, AAP and inclusion agendas

Author:: Veronique Barbelet
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: It is promising that people-centred humanitarian action has become such a key focus of reform for humanitarian actors, including donors and the United Nations. The concept of people-centred approaches, though loosely defined, increasingly appears to serve as a unifying umbrella for various reform agendas—such as localisation, accountability to affected populations (AAP), and inclusion—agendas that have, for the most part, been pursued separately in both policy and practice. While research has called for appropriate consideration of the benefits of bringing these agendas together (Barbelet et al., 2022; Lough et al., 2022), there is a risk that a people-centred focus could conflate the three distinct reform areas, rather than connect them in their synergies.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Reform, Inclusion, and Localization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

37. Breaking boundaries: local and national actors’ engagement in the humanitarian–development–peace nexus

Author:: Mae Albiento
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: There has been increased focus in the international system on the role of local and national actors (LNAs) in the humanitarian–development–peace (HDP) nexus because of their connections to communities and their focus on holistic needs and vulnerabilities (Ministry of Foreign Affairs Denmark et al., 2023). Yet, often, LNAs’ experiences are absent in how the nexus is framed, implemented and evaluated (Morinière and Morrison-Métois, 2023). At the same time, international approaches to the HDP nexus have been criticised as lacking concrete examples of integrated and holistic programming (Morinière and Morrison-Métois, 2023; IASC , 2024). This report brings the voices of LNAs into the HDP nexus discussion. It highlights their perspectives and experiences in designing and implementing programmes that straddle the three systems, drawing on survey data and key informant interviews (KIIs) with LNAs across 22 countries. The report provides key insights to understand those experiences and puts forward recommendations for how the international system can better recognise and support the nexus-style work of LNAs.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Localization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. Explain: Inclusion and inclusive humanitarian action

Author:: ALNAP
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: This is part of the Explain: Essential briefings for humanitarian decision-makers series. In recent years, the humanitarian sector has increasingly focused on marginalised groups such as women and girls, people with disabilities, and minoritised communities. While this shift is both essential and overdue - given the persistent evidence of people falling through the cracks - translating attention into meaningful action has proven challenging. Implementing inclusive humanitarian action is hindered by the absence of an agreed definition, clear policy commitments and a standardised way to measure progress. Inclusion, at its core, acknowledges that different people are affected by crises in varying and disproportionate ways and that discrimination and marginalisation, based on different identity factors, create barriers to accessing assistance and services. Addressing these challenges requires targeted analysis and actions.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Disability, Accountability, Marginalization, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Global Focus

39. Digital Data and Advanced AI for Richer Global Intelligence

Author:: Danielle Goldfarb
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: From collecting millions of online price data to measure inflation, to assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on low-income workers, digital data sets can be used to benefit the public interest. Using these and other examples, this special report explores how digital data sets and advances in artificial intelligence (AI) can provide timely, transparent and detailed insights into global challenges. These experiments illustrate how governments and civil society analysts can reuse digital data to spot emerging problems, analyze specific group impacts, complement traditional metrics or verify data that may be manipulated. AI and data governance should extend beyond addressing harms. International institutions and governments need to actively steward digital data and AI tools to support a step change in our understanding of society’s biggest challenges.
Topic:: Economics, Inflation, Artificial Intelligence, and Data
Political Geography:: Global Focus

40. Generative AI, Democracy and Human Rights

Author:: David Evan Harris and Aaron Shull
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Disinformation is not new, but given how disinformation campaigns are constructed, there is almost no stage that will not be rendered more effective by the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI). Given the unsatisfactory nature of current tools to address this budding reality, disinformation, especially during elections, is set to get much, much worse. As these campaigns become more sophisticated and manipulative, the foreseeable consequence will be a further erosion of trust in institutions and a heightened disintegration of civic integrity, which in turn will jeopardize a host of human rights, including electoral rights and the right to freedom of thought. In this policy brief, David Evan Harris and Aaron Shull argue that policy makers must hold AI companies liable for the harms caused or facilitated by their products that could have been reasonably foreseen, act quickly to ban using AI to impersonate real persons or organizations, and require the use of watermarking or other provenance tools to allow people to distinguish between AI-generated and authentic content.
Topic:: Human Rights, Democracy, Artificial Intelligence, Disinformation, Generative Models, and Freedom of Thought
Political Geography:: Global Focus

41. Policy Pathways for Integrating Fast Payment Systems with Digital Currencies

Author:: S. Yash Kalash
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The potential for coexistence between fast payment systems (FPSs) and digital currencies presents a significant opportunity to enhance the global digital financial ecosystem. Harmonizing regulations for FPSs and digital currencies is crucial for compliance, security and seamless integration, and investments in digital infrastructure and the development of open application programming interfaces will support communication between FPSs and blockchain platforms. In addition, global standards and cross-border agreements are essential to enable smooth international transactions using both systems, and collaboration between governments, central banks, and fintech and blockchain developers will accelerate innovation and ensure a secure, inclusive global financial ecosystem.
Topic:: Investment, Digital Currency, Digital Governance, and Financial Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

42. Mighty are Exempt: United Nations Response to Unlawful Actions by Great Power States

Author:: Claire Dickson
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of a great power state's position within the international system on the United Nations (UN) response to allegations of genocide, focusing specifically on the case study of the alleged genocide of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, China. The analysis explores how China's significant influence and status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council affects the organization’s ability to address and respond to such serious accusations. By evaluating the interplay between geopolitical considerations and diplomatic pressures, this study aims to uncover the dynamics that shape the UN’s actions and inactions in cases involving powerful states. The findings suggest that the UN’s response is heavily influenced by the power dynamics and strategic interests of its member states, which undermine the effectiveness and impartiality of its genocide prevention and intervention mechanisms.
Topic:: Diplomacy, United Nations, Geopolitics, UN Security Council, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Global Focus

43. Transnational Government: A Faster Path to Developing Underdeveloped Nations

Author:: Ahmad Reza Taheri
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This article introduces the concept of transnational government as a potential solution for underdeveloped states to develop themselves and overcome issues such as systemic corruption, maladministration, and dysfunctionality. The introduction defines the central problem and discusses the main idea. Subsequently, theories of development and the problems of accommodating them into the underdeveloped states will be reviewed. The article then presents a non-political inspirational model as a foundation for the discussion. This is followed by an examination of the proposed model’s theoretical underpinnings and its implementation. Finally, the article addresses the significant challenges and obstacles associated with the proposed model.
Topic:: Corruption, Development, Government, and Transnational Government
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. Lowering the Cost of Capital for Climate and SDG Finance in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs)

Author:: Jeffrey Sachs, Lisa Sachs, Ana Maria Camelo Vega, and Bradford M. Willis
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Today, the world’s fastest-growing economies face the steepest borrowing costs — even for clean energy projects with solid fundamentals. This is not a function of global capital scarcity. Trillions are available. The problem lies in systemic barriers that prevent capital from flowing to where it’s most urgently needed. The high cost of capital in EMDEs not only undermines critical financing for the energy transition and sustainable development; it also limits the ability for US- and EU-based financial institutions to invest in and finance projects in EMDEs, despite institutional and stakeholder appetite and interest for transition finance. This paper provides a holistic diagnosis of the structural forces inflating the cost of capital in EMDEs – including sovereign credit ratings, investor risk perceptions, development finance mandates, and regulatory norms – and it outlines ten actionable solutions to unlock long-term, affordable finance for climate and sustainable development – at the speed and scale required by both global goals and national ambitions. Each of the proposed approaches deserves careful discussion, consideration, and exploration; they are presented in this paper as a roadmap for discussion, including in the context of relevant global discussions on financing climate action and sustainable development, including the UN Financing for Development Agenda, the UNFCCC COP process, and the G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Climate Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Capital
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Distinguishing Among Climate Change-Related Risks

Author:: Lisa Sachs, Denise Hearn, Matt Goldklang, and Perrine Toledano
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Understanding the diverse types of climate change-related risks is crucial for developing effective strategies to address the global climate crisis. A holistic yet disaggregated approach allows for a comprehensive view of the challenges while enabling targeted responses from various stakeholders. This document outlines three main categories of climate-related risks: planetary, economic, and financial, detailing their relevance to various stakeholders, timeframes, and potential response strategies. This short brief aims to disentangle the complex nature of risk discussions for productive discourse and appropriate risk management approaches for different stakeholders. In practice, discussions related to assessing and responding to climate change risk have conflated categories of risk, confusing discussions and undermining the effectiveness of related strategies. We hope this brief can bring clarity and rigor to analyses of risk and support constructive discussion among policymakers, financial institutions, social sector actors, and the public. We plan to follow this short briefing with a longer report including more detailed analysis, integrating feedback to these initial ideas.
Topic:: Climate Change, Finance, Economy, Investment, Risk, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

46. Islamophobia, Race and Global Politics with Nazia Kazi (Episode 27)

Author:: Nazia Kazi and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This week’s episode offers a powerful introduction to the scope of Islamophobia in the United States. The legacy of Barack Obama and the mainstream media’s typically negative portrayals of Muslims offer incisive examples into the vast impact of Islamophobia – connected to the long history of racism – both within the borders of the United States, and as a matter of foreign policy and global politics. Host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) addresses these issues with “Islamophobia, Race and Global Politics (https://www.amazon.com/Islamophobia-R...) ” author and Stockton University Professor Nazia Kazi (https://drnaziakazi.com/) .
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Race, Islamophobia, and Global Politics
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

47. Race and Empire: Legal Theory Within, Through and Across National Borders with Asli Bali

Author:: Asli Bâli and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: In the Global South, the possibility of a post-imperial reality self-determined by former subjects of the empire has been undermined by the dominant Western narrative that centers “humanitarian initiatives, politics of counterterrorism, and migration control”. Host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) will speak with expert, advocate and Law Professor Dr. Asli U. Bali to deconstruct the mainstream narrative that portrays the international system and its dominant actors as benevolent agents of humanitarianism in regions like Libya.
Topic:: Imperialism, Race, Global South, Self-Determination, International System, and Post-Colonial
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

48. Post-Colonial Legality and Human Rights with Abdullahi An-Naim (Episode 31)

Author:: Abdullahi An-Naim and Sahar Aziz
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Autonomy and self-determination for all individuals cannot be realized and sustained unless true within every person. Enslavement and dehumanization remain true of citizens of imperial nations so long as they remain true for colonized peoples. This week’s episode explores the contradictions between stated commitments to human rights and actions in Western and post-colonial societies. Host Sahar Aziz (https://saharazizlaw.com/) addresses these issues with Emory University School of Law Professor Abdullahi Ahmed An-Na'im (https://law.emory.edu/faculty/faculty...) .
Topic:: Human Rights, Imperialism, Self-Determination, and Post-Colonial
Political Geography:: Global Focus

49. Race, Women and the Global War on Terror with Sherene Razack (Episode 30)

Author:: Sherene Razack
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: This episode of the Race and Rights podcast features Professor Sherene Razack (https://gender.ucla.edu/person/sheren...) discuss how racialized Muslim bodies and gender are constructed by global white supremacy that produces and sustains networks, affinities and ideas in the so-called Global War on Terror. Sherene Razack (https://gender.ucla.edu/person/sheren...) is a Distinguished Professor and the Penny Kanner Endowed Chair in Women’s Studies at the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and author of the Nothing Has to Make Sense: Upholding White Supremacy through Anti-Muslim Racism (https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/nothing...) (University of Minnesota 2022).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Race, Women, Islamophobia, War on Terror, and White Supremacy
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

50. Beyond the Weapon of War: Rethinking Gendered Narratives of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence

Author:: Sydney Leigh Smith
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) has traditionally been understood as an inevitable byproduct of war, with rape framed as a biologically driven act of sexual gratification committed by men against women. This perception shifted following landmark rulings by the International Criminal Tribunals for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and Rwanda (ICTR), which established sexual violence as a weapon of war. This article critically examines the "weapon of war" framework, which portrays militarized men as strategic perpetrators and women as symbolic victims, arguing that it reproduces harmful gendered identities and oversimplifies the complexities of sexual violence in conflict. The paper first traces the historical evolution of how CRSV has been conceptualized—from a natural consequence of war to a gendered and strategic tool of power—before analyzing the limitations of the weapon of war paradigm. It highlights the framework’s exclusion of male victims, female perpetrators, and diverse motivations for sexual violence—such as opportunism, material gain, and combatant bonding—as well as its failure to account for cases where armed groups refrain from using sexual violence altogether. Drawing on original analysis of over 4,000 redacted ICTR witness testimonies, the article demonstrates how the framework has constrained legal recognition, obscured lived experiences, and reproduced narrow narratives of ethnic hatred and gendered violence. It calls for a reframing of the gendered weapon of war concept to better account for the complexity of CRSV and to promote more inclusive approaches to justice, prevention, and survivor-centered redress.
Topic:: Rape, Sexual Violence, Accountability, Armed Conflict, Gender, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

51. Democratic Recovery After Significant Backsliding: Emergent Lessons

Author:: Thomas Carothers and McKenzie Carrier
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: In a global political landscape marked by twenty years of widespread democratic backsliding, some good news exists: in a handful of countries where leaders significantly undercut democratic norms and institutions, elections have brought to power new leadership with a strong declared commitment to restoring democracy.
Topic:: Democracy, Institutions, Democratic Backsliding, and Global Politics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

52. Rethinking a Political Approach to Nuclear Abolition

Author:: George Perkovich, Fumihiko Yoshida, and Michiru Nishida
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Preventing nuclear war and other existential military threats requires nations today to focus more on politics than on the qualities or quantities of weapons. Yet, many participants in nuclear policy debates do the opposite.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Military
Political Geography:: Global Focus

53. Measuring Changes Caused by Generative Artificial Intelligence: Setting the Foundations

Author:: Samantha Lai, Ben Nimmo, Derek Ruths, and Alicia Wanless
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Informed policy that leads to beneficial change is extremely challenging to develop without being able to measure the material impacts of GenAI.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Policy, and Generative Models
Political Geography:: Global Focus

54. Assessing National Information Ecosystems

Author:: Alicia Wanless, Samantha Lai, and John Hicks
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Often driven by misunderstanding, fears abound over how new technologies will change an information ecosystem.1 They might, and they might not. Either way, it’s extremely difficult to know what those changes will be without first understanding what an ecosystem was like before the introduction of those new technologies. In other words, to know how a system has changed, one must first know what constitutes the system and its prior state. This paper proffers factors that can constitute baselines for assessing national information ecosystems that can be measured across decades, geographies, and cultures. Assessing these factors over time and comparing them among countries can foster understanding of the impacts of new regulations, conflicts, and technologies. Perhaps more importantly, such an approach offers an objective analysis of information ecosystems, which is much needed in these politically charged times. The framework can also be used to identify existing gaps in knowledge, guiding policymakers and researchers on funding and research priorities to establish baselines of national information ecosystems. As those baselines are established and maintained, comparative analysis between ecosystems can generate insights on policy interventions to redress threats within them.
Topic:: Science and Technology and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

55. La regulación de la inteligencia artificial y la responsabilidad de los Estados en su utilización militar

Author:: Juan Manuel Rodriguez
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: El uso militar de la inteligencia artificial plantea numerosas cuestiones de orden jurídico y ético, destacando las referidas a la aplicación de normas internacionales. La complejidad de los sistemas autónomos de armas conlleva interrogantes sobre su adecuación al ordenamiento internacional, necesarios para determinar la responsabilidad por su desarrollo y empleo. Sin normas especiales que los regulen, el soporte normativo básico es el Derecho Internacional Humanitario y el Derecho Internacional de los Derechos Humanos, con problemas específicos que promueven una evolución normativa para regular estas máquinas. La responsabilidad por la vulneración de obligaciones internacionales constituye uno de los aspectos más complejos que rodean a los sistemas de inteligencia artificial. Los problemas se extienden principalmente a la atribución de la conducta, la necesidad de imponer el respeto de las normas a otros sujetos y actores, así como a la garantía de cumplimiento en el desarrollo o adquisición de estos sistemas.
Topic:: Ethics, Artificial Intelligence, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Warfare, and Autonomous Weapons Systems
Political Geography:: Global Focus

56. La Intersección entre Inteligencia Artificial y Armas Nucleares: Riesgos, Beneficios y Recomendaciones

Author:: Manuel Herrera
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Las innovaciones tecnológicas han sido clave en la evolución de la defensa militar, permitiendo a los Estados obtener ventajas estratégicas, como ocurrió en 1945 con la bomba atómica. Actualmente, la inteligencia artificial (IA) impulsa una revolución similar. Aunque su uso principal es civil y empresarial, varios países la están integrando en sus capacidades militares para ganar superioridad estratégica. La IA ya se emplea con éxito en drones y análisis de macrodatos, pero también comienza a aplicarse en sistemas de armamento nuclear, lo que podría tener consecuencias imprevisibles. Este artículo examina el impacto de la IA en las armas nucleares, centrándose en los sistemas de mando y control, y sus implicaciones para el equilibrio estratégico global. Se define la IA, se analiza su uso histórico en la Guerra Fría por Estados Unidos y la Unión Soviética, y se evalúan sus aplicaciones actuales. Finalmente, se proponen recomendaciones para mitigar riesgos asociados a su integración en el ámbito nuclear.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:: Global Focus

57. The militarization of artificial intelligence and the autonomous weapons

Author:: Andreas Heinz Westhues
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The rise of autonomous weapons technology in recent conflicts demonstrates the increasing militarisation of artificial intelligence. The rapid development of new technologies, such as AI-based targeting systems and autonomous weapons systems, poses significant challenges to the international community. On the one hand, there are potential threats associated with militarised artificial intelligence. On the other hand, there are ethical dilemmas related to algorithmic decision-making and legal liability. While efforts have been made over the past decade to establish a regulatory framework under the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, progress has been hampered by a small group of resistant States. However, recent regional and international conferences have indicated a growing consensus in favour of an international treaty based on a two-tier approach. This approach seeks to prohibit full autonomy and to regulate autonomous functions in weapon systems.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Regulation, Artificial Intelligence, Militarization, and Autonomous Weapons Systems
Political Geography:: Global Focus

58. Cybersecurity Implications of Quantum Computing and Its Combined Use with Artificial Intelligence

Author:: Andrea G. Rodriguez
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Quantum computing presents new market opportunities, but also significant challenges, particularly in areas such as cybersecurity. Although still in its infancy, quantum computing is maturing rapidly. If quantum computers can provide countries with new offensive capabilities - often in combination with artificial intelligence - it is arguably investment in the quantum communications agenda - in particular quantum networks - that can provide measures and actions to improve cyber defence.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Machine Learning, Encryption, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

59. Unleashing AI´s Transformative Power: Reshaping Productivity, Labor Markets and Policy in the Global Economy

Author:: Antonio Serrano
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping global productivity, labour markets and regulatory landscapes. It examines AI's potential to drive innovation, optimise processes and improve decision-making, while acknowledging associated risks such as job displacement, inequality and ethical concerns. The study highlights policy approaches such as the EU AI Act, emphasising a balanced, human-centred framework. It highlights the need for interdisciplinary collaboration to balance the transformative potential of AI with equitable and sustainable growth, and advocates for adaptive governance that fosters innovation while protecting fundamental rights.
Topic:: Economy, Economic Growth, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Transformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

60. The Global Terrorist Threat Forecast in 2025

Author:: Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The global terrorist threat remains persistent and pervasive as the world moves into 2025. Armed conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza and destabilisation by both State and non-State actors are redefining international stability. The influence of groups such as Islamic State, al-Qaeda and Iranian-backed militias underscores the enduring risks. Key challenges include geopolitical rivalries, radicalisation and increasingly sophisticated cyber and physical attacks. With the Middle East at the epicentre of escalating tensions and Africa emerging as a new hotspot, coordinated international efforts are essential to prevent and counter threats. States must strengthen cooperation in intelligence, security and strategic foresight to deal with a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous global landscape.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Radicalization, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Collaboration, Threat Assessment, 2023 Gaza War, Transnational Threats, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:: Middle East and Global Focus

61. Hybrid Multilateralism: Greenpeace in the Global Climate Governance

Author:: Ninda Soraya, Ali Muhammad, and Sitti Zarina Binti Alimuddin
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The study seeks to explain the non-state actors' roles in international climate negotiations. The existence of the Paris Agreement in our view strengthens the hybrid multilateralism architecture that makes it possible encouraging non-state actors to take part in global climate governance, such as Greenpeace. Based on literature research, this study uses qualitative research approaches. In addition, we utilize secondary information relevant to the subjects covered in this research from academic publications and online news sources. From this research, we found that three main key points, authority, legitimacy, and effectiveness in hybrid multilateralism best explain Greenpeace involvement in international climate negotiations. Furthermore, by following certain indicators of non-governmental organizations’ influence, Greenpeace is seen to have succeeded in influencing the Kyoto Protocol yet lost its role in influencing the Paris Agreement upon the United States’ withdrawal under Trump’s administration.
Topic:: Climate Change, Multilateralism, Paris Agreement, Climate Governance, and Greenpeace
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

62. 30 years of the Advisory Opinion on the Legality of Nuclear Weapons: eppur si muove

Author:: Lucas Carlos Lima
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The 1996 Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons remains a pivotal reference in international law and disarmament debates. While the Opinion did not categorically prohibit nuclear weapons, its reasoning has been widely cited in legal and diplomatic arenas. This study examines the Opinion’s long-term influence through three key elements: its incorporation into state practice, its role in international litigation, and its impact on the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Employing a methodology centered on primary sources, this research evaluates the Opinion’s relevance in shaping international legal norms and assesses whether it still accurately reflects the state of international law on nuclear disarmament.
Topic:: International Law, Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament, and International Court of Justice (ICJ)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

63. A Pacifism for Our Times

Author:: Antonio Patriota
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Growing trends of unilateralism are encouraging violence and threatening a systemic breakdown of international law and order. Change must come, and soon
Topic:: International Law, Violence, International Order, and Unilateralism
Political Geography:: Global Focus

64. From Ideas to Policy: Q&A with Ibrahim Awad

Author:: Omar Auf
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Is it possible to imagine, let alone move toward a different global political-economic order? Ibrahim Awad believes conferences and the exchange of ideas have a role to play in moving such a reality forward
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, Politics, Neoliberalism, Interview, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

65. The Role of Long Histories of “Lived Experience” in the COVID-Era Inflationary Surge

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon and Steven Kamin
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: A rough consensus has evolved around the causes of the COVID-era inflationary spike: the disruption in supply chains; the shift in demand from services to goods; the surge in commodity prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; and the pandemic fiscal stimulus programs. In this paper, we highlight an additional factor influencing the incidence of pandemic inflation across countries—their long histories of “lived experience” with inflation. We show that more than half of the variation in inflation across countries during the 2020–23 period can be explained by their earlier levels of inflation. Even controlling for inflation in the 2016–19 period, countries with higher inflation in the 2000–2015 period had higher COVID-era inflation, and the effect of long-lagged inflation is both economically and statistically significant. These long histories of lived experience dominated other policy measures to control inflation, including inflation targets and central bank independence. The influence of long-lagged inflation history appears to be greatest during periods of heightened volatility; it was less important in explaining the cross-country pattern of inflation during the more tranquil period immediately preceding the pandemic.
Topic:: Economy, Inflation, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Global Focus

66. How Export Restrictions Threaten Economic Security

Author:: Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The fear that a foreign government will impose an export restriction that imperils another country’s economic and national security has driven part of the recent turn to industrial policy and the increased use of tariffs. Countries now worry about disruption not only to their access to energy but also to critical minerals, semiconductors, medical supplies, and other essential goods. Modern use of industrial and trade policy is thus often an attempt to move supply chains in the short term and to sustain them in those new places over the long term, in order to reduce national vulnerability to disruptions caused by export restrictions. However, achieving even modest forms of international cooperation on trade and industrial policy between countries seeking to improve their collective economic security will also require that these same countries take on new commitments to discipline their own use of export restrictions toward each other.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Tariffs, Exports, and Economic Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

67. Inequality and agricultural structural change: Evidence from macro and microdata, 1950–present

Author:: Matthew Fisher-Post
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Since 1950, agricultural productivity has been increasing even as labourers leave agriculture. However, while average productivity of the sector has been converging, within-sector inequality has been increasing. Agricultural income inequality is still less than overall income inequality, but it measures significantly higher when we use higher-quality and more comprehensive survey data. This means not only to observe the entirety of household farm income, but also to measure the magnitude of capital income and corporate profits in the sector. Given the likely increase in agricultural inequality during the process of structural change, I show also the extent to which social protection programmes are both insufficient and poorly targeted for rural populations.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Food Security, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

68. Environmental Kuznets curve and green regulation

Author:: Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Loredana Pisano
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989– 2022). We find that (CO2) emissions respond positively to increasing income per capita, up to a turning point of approximately US$25,000. In a departure from the previous literature, we allow the relationship between economic development and emissions to depend on the stringency of environmental regulation. Our results indicate that environmental policies—and particularly market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emissions trading systems—make the EKC lower and flatter. These results are robust to several sensitivity checks, and to the use of regional (rather than global) data. Overall, our results have important policy implications, as they identify economic development as a pathway to environmental improvements. Moreover, we show that environmental policies are an essential means to achieving decoupling of emissions and economic output over the longer term.
Topic:: Climate Change, Carbon Tax, Decoupling, and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

69. Economic development and inequality of opportunity: Kuznets meets the Great Gatsby?

Author:: Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Domenico Moramarco, and Vito Peragine
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: According to the Kuznets hypothesis, inequality first tends to increase and then decrease as a country develops. Whether borne out empirically, this inverted-U Kuznets curve, as a stylized ‘fact’, has shaped the discourse on economic development and income inequality for decades. In this paper we investigate whether a similar relationship holds between national income per capita and inequality of opportunity: the inequality associated with inherited individual circumstances such as gender, ethnicity, and family background. As, empirically, inequality of opportunity is positively correlated with income inequality (a relationship known as the ‘Great Gatsby’ curve), the relationship between inequality of opportunity and ‘development’ is expected to display the same inverted-U shape. We suggest that the existence of a Kuznets inequality of opportunity curve can be the result of a ‘triangular’ relationship between development, income inequality, and inequality of opportunity. We propose a simple theoretical model that links the three concepts and describes two possible mechanisms. A numerical simulation based on the model illustrates the process. We then draw on the newly published Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility database to shed new light on this ‘triangular’ relationship, primarily in a cross-sectional context.
Topic:: Development, Inequality, and Opportunity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

70. Building a path toward global deployment of fusion: Nonproliferation and export considerations

Author:: Sachin Desai, Michael Hua, Amy Roma, Jessica Bufford, Jacqueline Siebens, and Andrew Proffitt
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Commercial fusion is on the horizon, with many experts arguing that fusion power plants could put electrons on the grid by the end of this decade. However, there are questions around the process for regulating fusion power plants. In this Atlantic Council issue brief, authors Sachin S. Desai, Michael Y. Hua, Amy C. Roma, Jessica A. Bufford, Jacqueline E. Siebens, and J. Andrew Proffitt explore pathways to address regulation, nonproliferation, and export considerations for fusion technologies. They argue that fusion power plants should be regulated in a pathway that is separate from the regulatory pathways established for fission reactors, especially since the materials and processes involved in fusion power plants are significantly different from fission reactors.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Nonproliferation, Exports, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

71. Benchmarking Quantum Technology Performance: Governments, Industry, Academia and their Role in Shaping our Technological Future

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Andrea Dugo, Dyuti Pandya, and Oscar du Roy
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: In this study on the transformative potential of quantum technology in reshaping economies, we present results and evidence drawing on a unique and innovative quantum dataset compiled by ECIPE. This data offers new insights into the current state of quantum advancements. This comprehensive database sheds light on the roles of various actors – governments, industry, and academia – showcasing their contributions to the development of quantum technologies. By grounding the analysis in real data, we provide a clearer understanding of the dynamics at play, enabling stakeholders to assess the sustainability of quantum technology progress and foster an ecosystem that supports both public and private sector involvement.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Private Sector, Industry, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Global Focus

72. Models of Industrial Policy: Driving Innovation and Economic Growth

Author:: Andrea Dugo, Fredrik Erixon, and Oscar Guinea
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Europe’s approach to industrial policy has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years, with state aid reaching 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2022, levels unseen since the early 1990s. While advocates of substantial state aid argue that this intervention is necessary to maintain competitiveness in a world where the US and China are implementing large-scale industrial strategies, the effectiveness of this approach remains contested. This paper critically examines the evolution of EU industrial policy, contrasting it with alternative models adopted globally and within Europe itself. While EU economic strategies since the 1980s had focused mainly on horizontal policies such as market liberalisation, competition enforcement and support to Research and Development (R&D), recent developments have shifted towards a more interventionist stance. This shift has largely been driven by crises – the financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, and the energy transition – which have prompted calls for greater state involvement in shaping industrial outcomes. However, this paper shows that, while industrial policy can support good economic development, it is not a determinant of economic success. All successful economies have pursued industrial policy, but so have all unsuccessful ones. This suggests that industrial policy, in and of itself, is not a determinant of economic growth and competitiveness. The effectiveness of industrial policy depends on its design, its ability to avoid market distortions, and its capacity to stimulate genuine private-sector investment rather than crowding it out. The revival of industrial policy in the EU – best exemplified by a series of high-level reports, including the Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi Reports of 2024 – signals a shift towards an industrial strategy that embraces state aid as a central tool for economic restructuring. Unlike earlier EU economic strategies that prioritised the deepening of the Single Market as the best form of industrial policy, recent proposals advocate for a relaxation of state aid rules to enable greater public subsidies for European industries. The rationale is that the EU must respond to global competitors who are no longer playing by the rules of free trade. As documented in this study, across a diverse range of EU countries, sectors, and policy targets, the prevailing industrial policy model in Europe consistently prioritises a selection of incumbent firms over the private sector as a whole, direct grants over other policy instruments, middle-technology sectors over high-tech ones. This paper argues that such an approach will not generate the desired outcome and assesses its shortcomings to encourage careful review by policymakers before Europe embarks on more of the same. In search of other policy solutions, this paper contrasts the broad European model of industrial policy with other approaches, particularly those of the US, South Korea, Switzerland, and Ireland, which offer, in different fields, alternative frameworks for fostering industrial competitiveness. These models are attractive because they respond to specific and growing problems in the EU economy that public policy can help to alleviate: low levels of investment, declining inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), lagging R&D-based innovation, and problems supplying industry with adequate human capital.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, European Union, Economic Growth, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

73. Global IR Research Programme: From Perplexities to Progressions

Author:: Deepshikha Shahi
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Our basic expectations vis-à-vis ‘the international’ have turned our phenomenal existence into two seemingly irreconcilable cognitive prisons: ‘one world’ with homogenizing propensities (dominated by the West) and ‘many worlds’ with heterogenizing predispositions (embodied by the non-West). Every so often, these cognitive prisons—oscillating between the extreme homogenizing propensities of the West and heterogenizing predispositions of the non-West— become obstacles in implementing effective global partnerships that are required to tackle the challenges thrown by global crisis-situations, e.g., the likelihoods of world war, financial crisis, climate change, pandemic, and the like. The agenda of the ‘Global IR research programme’ has emerged to demolish these cognitive prisons. To this end, this agenda finds rational support from multiple auxiliary theories that derive stimulus from hitherto denigrated knowledge-forms thriving in different corners of the world: e.g., Tianxia (all-under-heaven) from China, Advaita (non-duality) from India, and Mu No Basho (place of nothingness) from Japan. Nevertheless, the conditioned reflexes of many IR researchers compel them to receive the emergent knowledge-forms by correlating their ‘source’ and ‘scope’: generally, the knowledge-forms having their source in the West are granted a global scope, whereas the knowledge-forms having their source in the non-West are given a local scope; it is often suspected that the local non-Western knowledge-forms cannot grasp the larger global scenario. Philosophically, these conditioned reflexes emanate from Kantian dualism, which forms disconnected opposites of phenomena-noumena, science-metaphysics, West–non-West etc. This article reveals how the Global IR research programme—inspired by the Chinese, Indian and Japanese cosmovisions—strives to demolish the cognitive prisons of ‘one world versus many worlds’, thereby ensuring the prospective progressions of this research programme.
Topic:: International Relations and Research
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, and Global Focus

74. Are We There Yet? A Global Investigation of Knowledge Inclusion in International Relations Theory Curricula

Author:: Jacqui Ala
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: It is now rather well established that most International Relations (IR) theories are predicated on Western knowledges. This potentially limits their analytical capacity to explain international relations beyond Western ideological values or interests. However, in recent years there has been a substantial increase in scholarship not only critiquing the Western centric nature of International Relations theory but also exploring the contributions that knowledges from the global South make to the field of IR theory. Thus, the status quo is shifting, albeit slowly. Nevertheless, the impact as well as the implication of this shift toward knowledge plurality for the IR theory curricula has not been paid adequate attention. Consequently, this article investigates whether the demand for knowledge plurality in the realm of IR theory research has made inroads into the arena of pedagogy resulting in the generation of knowledge plural IR theory curricula. Moreover, it examines the different choices and interpretations made by educators in endeavouring to create knowledge plural IR theory curricula in various global contexts. Further, it endeavours to discern the factors that have informed and/or shaped respondents’ curricula and pedagogical choices pertaining to the selection, structuring and transmission of IR knowledge at tertiary education institutions in different geographical contexts. Ultimately, it reflects on the implications of the increase in knowledge plural curricula for the development of greater knowledge plurality within the discipline.
Topic:: International Relations, International Relations Theory, Decolonization, Knowledge Systems, and Curriculum
Political Geography:: Global Focus

75. Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders

Author:: Hasan Basri Barit
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: In the last decade, there has been a growing interest in Global International Relations (IR), which calls for a non-Western approach to IR, an endeavor that has produced several books and articles. One recent such work is Before the West: The Rise and Fall of Eastern World Orders by Ayşe Zarakol in 2022. This book differs from other studies on Global IR with its alternative narrative based on the Chingissid world order, which challenges Eurocentrism from an Asian angle with the help of the IR terminology that we use today.
Topic:: International Relations, History, Book Review, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

76. Disentangling Government Responses: How Do We Know When Accountability Work Is Gaining Traction?

Author:: Jonathan Fox, Brendan Halloran, Alta Fölscher, and Rosie McGee
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: Advocacy for public accountability aims to produce certain reactions from government officials or service providers. However, the reactions can be many and diverse, and it is not always clear to advocates how to interpret them and decide on next steps—whether to intensify efforts or back off; continue the same strategy or make adjustments. This paper presents a framework to help accountability advocates and practitioners interpret government reactions to their efforts and move forward appropriately. The framework arises from learning and reflection in the context of the International Budget Partnership (IBP)’s Strengthening Public Accountability with Results and Knowledge (SPARK) program. SPARK seeks to bolster the collective agency of marginalized communities and coalitions to advance democratic and equitable fiscal governance systems that channel public resources to services that address the priority needs of these historically excluded groups.
Topic:: Government, Governance, Accountability, and Financial Management
Political Geography:: Global Focus

77. The Invisible Leverage of the Top 1 Percent: Absentee Debtors and Their Hedge Funds

Author:: Stefano Sgambati
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The existing literature on finance, debt and inequality depicts economic elites as a creditor class. According to a popular thesis, over the past four decades, the rich and ultra-rich households in the top 1 percent have experienced a saving glut (excess income), which they have invested in the debts of the poor and their governments. While it is undeniable that the rich have expanded their income share at the expenses of the poor, to refer to them as ‘creditors’ or ‘lenders’ is a misrepresentation of how they actually expand their wealth and income shares by financial means. For it conceals the fact that a great deal of their investments is leveraged, that is, carried out with borrowed money. This article shows that the debts generated by individuals and households in the top 1 percent easily surpass those of all other households and even exceed those of the most indebted states in the world. However, these debts are hard to estimate, and indeed they are not accounted for in statistics on household debt. This is because households in the top 1 percent do not borrow from banks, like normal households do, but they are instead absentee debtors who borrow through the hedge funds, private equity firms, personal investment trusts, and big banks of which they are dominant shareholders and ultimate beneficiaries. To gain an insight into their invisible leverage, the article looks at how much hedge funds borrow, and why their leverage matters.
Topic:: Debt, Political Economy, Inequality, Finance, Elites, Hedge Funds, and Leverage
Political Geography:: Global Focus

78. Good Intentions, Better Outcomes: Shifting the Debate About Social Protection and Informality

Author:: James Heintz and Jayati Ghosh
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: The introduction of social protections for individuals engaged in paid employment frequently comes up against arguments that such measures would have an adverse impact on employment, reduce access to formal jobs, and result in greater informality. The argument is that, while well intentioned, such policies distort labor markets and generate significant economic costs that either leave some workers worse off than they would have been in the absence of such protection, or the interventions become a drag on overall economic performance, encumbering the process of development. In what follows we critically evaluate such arguments and provide responses to the claim that social protections lead to higher informality. We also consider the challenges involved in providing social protection to different types of workers, including not only those employed by others but specifically the self-employed and unpaid workers.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Labor Market, Informal Economy, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

79. IMF Standby Agreements and Inequality: The Role of Informality

Author:: Ceyhun Elgin and Adem Elveren
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: In this paper we investigate the response of two inequality metrics to different IMF programs. To this end, we use a relatively large annual (unbalanced) cross-country panel dataset that includes the Gini index and the Estimated Household Income Inequality as the two relevant inequality metrics and covers the period from 1950 to 2016 in an annual basis for 159 countries. Our empirical analysis indicates that in countries where the informal sector size (as percentage of GDP) is relatively larger, the extent of income inequality increases after different IMF programs, but particularly so after standby arrangements. However, we also show that the opposite is true, when informal sector size is small, i.e., inequality declines after different IMF programs.
Topic:: Political Economy, Inequality, IMF, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

80. Transnational Cooperation -- An Explorative Collection

Author:: Stephan Klingebiel and Sven Grimm
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The present collection of short papers is an experimental, explorative and introspective German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) project on international and transnational cooperation for development and sustainability. It is the product of internal brainstorming discussions at IDOS in mid-2022 that aspired to conduct a preliminary, exemplary mapping of the use of “transnational lenses” and their understandings across various work strands at the institute. This might lead to new questions in our work, or it might simply be an attempt to look at our topics of interest with a different perspective.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Transnational Actors, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

81. Greening Economies in Partner Countries: Priorities for International Cooperation

Author:: Tilman Altenburg, Anna Pegels, Annika Björkdahl, Clara Brandi, and Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: While polluting industries are still flourishing, the green economy is on the rise. In low- and middle-income countries, the resulting opportunities are mostly underexplored. The Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)’s new strategy for “Sustainable economic development, training and employment” shifts gears towards a green and inclusive structural transformation, recognising that only a just transition approach with credible co-benefits for societies can gain societal acceptance (BMZ, 2023). It is now essential to provide evidence of how a greener economy can offer direct economic benefits to national economies and the majority of their citizens. Ongoing cooperation portfolios need to be adjusted to this new and timely orientation in the BMZ’s core strategy. We suggest focusing on the following six areas: Eco-social fiscal reform should be a priority area in at least 15 of the over 40 partner countries with whom Germany cooperates on “sustainable economic development”, systematically linking revenues from pricing pollutions to pro-poor spending. Development policy should promote inclusive green finance (IGF) through market-shaping policies, such as an enabling regulatory framework for the development of digital IGF services and customer protection in digital payment services. It should also build policymakers’ capacity in developing IGF policies and regulation. Support in the area of sustainable, circular con-sumption should focus on eco-design, and repair and reuse systems. It should build systems design capa-cities and behavioural knowledge, to integrate con-sumers in low-carbon and circular industry-consumer systems. This will need new collaborations with actors shaping systems of consumption and production, for instance with supermarkets or the regulators of eco-design guidelines. Germany should strategically support national hydro-gen strategies, including a just transition approach and prioritising green over other “colours” of hydrogen. This means strengthening industrial policy think tanks, technology and market assessment agencies, technology-related policy advice as well as skills development, and exploring distributive mechanisms to spread the gains and ensure societal acceptance. Sustainable urbanisation should be a more explicit priority, given its potential for job creation and enterprise development. This means supporting partners in integrating land-use, construction and mobility planning for compact, mixed-use neighbourhoods, and anti-cipating green jobs potential and skills required within cities. Lastly, Germany should support green industrial policy and enlarge policy space in trade rules by promoting the core institutions of industrial policy, for example, technology foresight agencies, coordinating platforms for industry upgrading, and policy think tanks, and working towards reforms of the trading system, such as rules to allow clearly defined green industrial subsidies, preferential market access for green goods and services from low-income countries, or technology transfer. It is evident for all areas that the challenges in low- and middle-income countries will differ from those in high-income countries. It is, therefore, imperative that successful programmes are co-developed with local partners. A just green transition that harvests benefits beyond a healthier environment and is supported by societies will then be achievable.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Economy, Sustainability, and Green Economy
Political Geography:: Germany and Global Focus

82. Social Contract and Social Cohesion: Synergies and Tensions between Two Related Concepts

Author:: Markus Loewe, Armin von Schiller, Tina Zintl, and Julia Leininger
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: “Social cohesion” and the “social contract” are two related analytical concepts, which have become increasingly popular among researchers and practitioners. Both concepts help to understand and characterise societies and countries by shedding light on the relationships between members and groups of society and state institutions. Unfortunately, there is often little precision in the use of the concepts. As a result, their respective analytical strengths have not always been well utilised for policy analysis and project design. Furthermore, the synergies between them have been overlooked. This paper therefore defines both concepts, considers their respective strengths and discusses the relationship between them. The concept of the social contract emphasises the deliverables exchanged between societal groups and governing authorities. Social contracts are the sum of formal and informal agreements amongst societal actors and between them and the actor in power (the government or any other type of authority) on the rights and obligations of one towards the other. Social contracts vary enormously, but all establish more stability in state–society relations, especially if they are inclusive and flexible enough to account for changes in the framework conditions. The concept of social cohesion, in contrast, refers primarily to the quality of the relations between individuals, societal groups and the state, and the underlying values, norms and attitudes that shape these relationships. Social cohesion can be characterised as the glue that holds a society together and enables it to develop a shared vision. It concerns the horizontal relationships between members of society and the vertical relationships between societal actors and political institutions. Social contracts and social cohesion affect each other. Social contracts contribute to social cohesion because the regular and predictable exchange of deliverables between societal groups and the state creates an interdependence that strengthens mutual trust, willing-ness to cooperate and a sense of common identity. Conversely, social contracts tend to be more resilient and sustainable if they are based on cohesive societies. Both concepts are thus useful for national governments and foreign donors to assess opportunities and design policies for sustainable development. The social contract concept helps us to understand the “give and take” in a country: it shows where governments could do better in delivering to society and thereby make state–society relations more stable. The social cohesion concept in turn helps to determine what holds societies together and which attributes of intra-society relations could or should be strengthened. In addition, both concepts assist foreign donors in assessing which interventions would be favourable for the internal relationships in partner countries and in thinking carefully about potential unintended harmful effects. In particular, international donors can benefit from exploiting the mutually enforcing relationship between social contract and social cohesion.
Topic:: Development, Institutions, Development Aid, Social Cohesion, and Social Contract
Political Geography:: Global Focus

83. Tomorrow’s Global Development Landscape: Mapping Trends and Reform Dynamics

Author:: Heiner Janus, Niels Keijzer, and Svea Koch
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The key tools and governance approaches for international cooperation for sustainable development (hereafter, international cooperation) were set up in a markedly different time and age. International cooperation – with official development assistance (ODA) as the dominant means of implementation – remains key, despite being generally considered as no longer adequate for addressing today’s common and collective challenges. Despite numerous declarations of its growing irrelevance or calls for it even being beyond repair, the governance and reporting system of ODA has remained largely unchanged throughout its 60 years of existence. One reason is that there are few alternatives. Pandemic response and preparedness, climate finance, humanitarian aid, the United Nations development system as well as the budgets of the multilateral development banks all by and large remain dependent on ODA. New and additional sources of development finance have been slow to materialise and run the risk of remaining time-bound and ad-hoc, as illustrated by recent discussions on Special Drawing Rights, debt swaps and green bonds. While other actors, such as providers of South-South Cooperation (SSC), and non-governmental actors are increasing and gaining importance, they are only to a limited degree institutionalised. In the absence of transparent and coherent methodologies for monitoring their actions, concrete financial volumes remain hard to assess. This paper analyses structural factors of the institutional inertia in international cooperation and formulates expectations for where new reform impetuses might arise from. To this end, it maps and links key reform proposals for the global development system, with a specific focus on public financial flows consisting of three connected parts. The first part concerns current forms of and reporting processes for ODA, climate finance and SSC. These concern well-established, albeit path-dependent, forms of international cooperation with different types of multistakeholder settings and different levels of institutionalisation. Here, we do not expect fundamental reforms given various entrenched interests and expect that the nexus between climate finance and ODA will be the main driver for change. The second part of our mapping consists of what we call “global first” reform ideas. These ideas begin with a problem-oriented approach at the global level and aim at setting up new, universal financing schemes and redesigning institutional structures for that purpose. While the ideas in this category are still in their initial stage, we regard them to be particularly relevant for conceptualising the “demand-side” of reforms (i.e., “what would be needed?”). Here, we predict that the more ambitious reforms for creating universality of contributions and benefits at the global level will not materialise. However, these concepts play a key role in influencing the future orientation of specific existing (multilateral) institutions. The third part of our mapping entails positioning current multilateral and bilateral development organisations located between the first two parts. We observe that these organisations experience a gravitational pull towards both directions of reform, namely focusing on global public goods versus prioritising the (countries) left behind, often with competing incentives and trade-offs between national and global development priorities. We expect that a reform of bilateral development actors will lag behind in the broader policy field due to their domestic political constraints, whereas multilateral development banks will generate greater reform momentum (and be pushed by their stakeholders) as first movers.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:: Global Focus

84. Constellations of State Fragility: Improving International Cooperation through Analytical Differentiation

Author:: Jasmin Lorch, Sebastian Ziaja, and Jörn Grävingholt
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: State fragility has remained a pressing challenge for international security and development policymakers for more than two decades. However, international engagement in fragile states has often failed, in part due to a lack of understanding about what constitutes state fragility. Established quantitative models usually rank fragile states on one-dimensional scales ranging from stable to highly fragile. This puts states characterised by very different problems and dimensions of fragility into the same “box”. Moreover, categorisations such as “fragile”, “weak”, “failed” or “collapsed” are increasingly rejected in the Global South, thereby hampering international development and security cooperation. The “Constellations of State Fragility” model, developed at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), provides a more differentiated model to measure state fragility. It assesses state fragility along three continuous dimensions, assuming that state fragility is a continuous trait that affects all states to some degree: authority, capacity and legitimacy. These dimensions are not aggregated into a one-dimensional index. Instead, the model detects typical constellations across these dimensions. In so doing, it also accounts for the fact that states can perform very differently in different dimensions. Our analysis yields three main insights about what constitutes state fragility and how it can be addressed: first, state fragility, illiberalism, repression and human rights violations are interrelated; second, state fragility is not unique to the Global South, with negative trends also occurring in the Global North; and, third, differentiated, multi-dimensional models offer better starting points for addressing state fragility than one-dimensional ones. We conclude with four policy recommendations: • Improve analytical capacity by adopting a differentiated view of state fragility: International security and development policymakers would benefit from more fine-grained, differentiated assessments of state fragility. In addition, country-specific assessments of the specific local power constellations in which fragile state institutions are embedded are needed for devising adequate, context-sensitive measures. • Connect measures to address fragility with democracy protection and the protection of human rights: Illiberalism, human rights violations and repression correlate with state fragility. This also suggests that there is a close relationship between autocracy, autocratisation and fragility. Accordingly, measures to address fragility, democracy support and efforts to protect human rights must be better connected. This also implies doing “no harm to democracy” (Leininger, 2023, p. 2). • Identify conditions under which state-building can (or cannot) be pursued: It would be fruitful if international security and development policymakers engaged in thorough discussions about the conditions under which state-building can be pursued. Where existing state institutions are legitimate, they should be supported. However, donor coherence and the capacity (and political will) of donors to commit resources to fragile states and to engage long-term are also important preconditions. State-building is both a costly and a long-term endeavour. • Learning across world regions: Patterns of state fragility can be highly similar, despite geographical distance. In particular, rising illiberalism and increasing attacks on civil liberties are global phenomena. Hence, policy decision-makers and civil society organisations (CSOs) seeking to counter fragility should engage in mutual learning across the North/South divide.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Fragile States, and Development Aid
Political Geography:: Global Focus

85. State Fragility and Development Cooperation: Putting the Empirics to Use in Policy and Planning

Author:: Charles Martin-Shields and Diana Koester
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: State fragility, which describes how different components of a state do (or do not) function, is a central concept for understanding how development activities and policies in complex political, humanitarian and conflict-affected contexts will (or will not) work in practice. Using fragility as a lens, we use feminist development policy and forced displacement as examples to demonstrate how different empirical conceptualisations of fragility can be used to uncover potential challenges and identify opportunities for more comprehensive policy and programming. These examples are only two ways one can apply the concepts of fragility of the OECD and the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS). Indeed, these and other empirical concepts of state fragility have many applications and can be used to measure and understand state–society, conflict and humanitarian dynamics in myriad ways. The longest-running among these kinds of models is the Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index (Fund for Peace, 2023). Other models focus on state fragility as a function of different aspects of “stateness”. This includes IDOS’s Constellations of State Fragility typology, which clusters types of fragility based on strengths/weaknesses in key dimensions of statehood (Grävingholt et al., 2019). Some organisations have moved beyond an exclusive focus on the functioning of the state, with the OECD currently defining fragility contexts as the combination of risks and insufficient coping capacities of multiple levels of governance systems and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks (OECD, 2016). The IDOS and OECD concepts do not rank countries, and the methods used in both models allow them to be applied to different levels of analysis. Essentially, these empirical conceptualisations of state fragility can serve as useful heuristics for the policy-makers responsible for setting policy agendas in fragile contexts.
Topic:: Development, Fragile States, Fragility, Cooperation, and Development Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

86. Getting Special Drawing Rights Right: Opportunities for Re-channelling SDRs to Vulnerable Countries

Author:: Jürgen K. Zattler
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Many developing countries are still grappling with the consequences of the pandemic and the associated high debt burdens while facing huge financing needs, inter alia related to climate change. In response, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued $650 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). The G7 and G20 have committed to re-channelling SDR 100 billion of their allocation to developing countries (on-lending, recycling and re-channelling are used interchangeably in this policy brief). The question now is how to implement these commitments in a way that promotes the global transformation and at the same time supports debt sustainability. It is important to note that there are certain restrictions on the re-channelling of SDRs. Most importantly, the re-channelling must be consistent with the SDR’s status as an international reserve asset. There are different interpretations of these requirements. The IMF has encouraged the use of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) for re-channelling. It has also signalled general support for re-channelling SDRs to the multilateral development banks (MDBs). The European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a more restrictive stance. Does the re-channelling of SDRs through the above-mentioned IMF trusts (“the current on-lending option”) effectively support the global transformation? Measured against this objective, the current on-lending regime has two shortcomings. First, it does not sufficiently link foreign exchange support to deep structural transformation. Second, it does not allow funds to be leveraged in the private capital market. In this policy brief, we discuss a promising alternative: recycling SDRs for MDB hybrid capital (“the hybrid capital option”). This option can overcome the two drawbacks of the current system. At the same time, it has its own challenges. Moreover, both the current on-lending option and the hybrid capital option raise concerns about debt sustainability. If implemented in their current forms, they would risk exacerbating vulnerable countries’ debt problems. It would therefore be desirable to modify these options to better integrate debt implications. This could be done by using the on-lent SDRs primarily for programmes that are not “expenditure-based”, but rather help to improve the composition of expenditure and revenue in a socially equitable manner, for example the introduction of regulatory standards, feebates and carbon pricing, or the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies. Such an approach could have the added benefit of making previously sceptical member states more receptive to the hybrid capital proposal. The mid-term review of the RST, scheduled for May 2024, as well as the full review in 2025 provide good opportunities to further explore some of the issues raised in this policy brief. In addition, the brief identifies three ways in which interested shareholders of the IMF and MDBs could advance the debate on the hybrid capital option.
Topic:: Development, Sustainability, COVID-19, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

87. Some little-known effects of global warming

Author:: Louis Caudron
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:: In an effort to raise public awareness of the seriousness of the effects of climate change, the media generally associate global warming with increasing heatwaves and droughts, melting glaciers and rising sea levels. In reality, the effects of climate change are much more diverse, and they are not impacting all parts of the world in the same way. There are many losers, but there are also winners. The first example concerns rainfall. Contrary to what some might think, global warming does not mean an increase in drought, but rather an increase in rainfall. The rise in temperature translates into an increase in evaporation both on land and at sea, leading to an increase in rainfall on a global scale. Overall, two-thirds of the world's population will see an increase in rainfall and one-third a decrease. A map published by the CNRS illustration this development.
Topic:: Climate Change, Water, and Drought
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

88. Climate Change, Response, and Mass Atrocities

Author:: Tallan Donine, Madeleine Maclean, and Daniel Solomon
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: This paper aims to stimulate and frame discussion during the Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention about the relationship between climate change, climate response, and mass atrocities. Based on a review of relevant research, the paper surveys current knowledge about how factors related to (1) climate change and (2) climate response measures might contribute to the risk and prevention of mass atrocities. In the coming decade, climate change will pose significant risks for communities around the world (Buhaug et al. 2023). Mitigation and adaptation measures taken in response to these risks will occupy a large amount of international attention and have important consequences for global political events. Effective action to help prevent and respond to mass atrocities will require clear analysis of the risks and opportunities that these trends present.
Topic:: Climate Change, Atrocities, Adaptation, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Global Focus

89. The Mobility Key: Realizing the Potential of Refugee Travel Documents

Author:: Samuel Davidoff-Gore
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Governments are increasingly experimenting with new mobility pathways for refugees, beyond traditional resettlement operations. These include complementary pathways that connect refugees with work or study opportunities in a country other than the one in which they first sought safety—expanding their future prospects while easing pressure on top refugee-hosting countries. Refugees’ ability to take up these and other opportunities abroad depends to a significant extent on their access to the travel documents required to reach their destination. Yet refugees are generally unable to safely use the most common travel document: a passport issued by a person’s country of origin. This policy brief—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—outlines the different types of travel documents that can facilitate refugees’ movement and key barriers to acquiring and using them. It also identifies steps that countries of asylum, transit, and destination, along with donors and international organizations, can take to overcome these challenges.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Organization, Border Control, Refugees, Asylum, and Protection
Political Geography:: Global Focus

90. Leaving No One Behind: Inclusive Fintech for Remittances

Author:: Ravenna Shost
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:: Remittances are an important source of support for migrants’ families, communities, and origin countries. However, the remittance industry has long been dominated by a few players whose services have high transaction costs, blunting the development benefits of these money transfers. By easing access to financial services, mainly via mobile phones, some countries and development actors hope that financial technology (or fintech) will change this status quo. Many believe that such technologies—namely mobile money and cryptocurrencies—hold the potential to boost migrants’ inclusion in financial systems and enhance the development benefits of remittances. Yet, many obstacles remain to widening these digital tools’ reach and usability, and safeguards are needed to protect users against new risks. This report explores the growing use of digital financial services for international remittances, including changes during the pandemic and a look at gendered aspects of these technologies’ impacts. The analysis draws, in part, on insights from expert interviews as well as focus groups conducted in Nigeria and Sri Lanka with users and nonusers of digital remittance services. The report results from a multiyear research partnership between MPI and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation’s Thematic Section Migration and Forced Displacement to support the development of global solutions for migration-related challenges.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Science and Technology, Finance, and Remittances
Political Geography:: Global Focus

91. Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective

Author:: Susan Sim, Eric Hartunian, and Paul J. Milas
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society. A groundbreaking report is born from a collaboration between NATO COE-DAT and the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. This book unveils a grim forecast that terrorists are poised to exploit advances in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, augmented reality, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. The line between reality and fiction blurs in the age of rapid technological evolution, urging governments, industries, and academia to unite in crafting ethical frameworks and regulations. As geopolitical tides shift, NATO stresses national responsibility in combating terrorism and advocating for collective strength against the looming specter of technology-driven threats. However, questions linger. Can regulatory frameworks keep pace with technological innovation? Will industry prioritize ethical considerations over profit margins?
Topic:: Agriculture, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Biosecurity, Artificial Intelligence, Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, and Nanoweaponry
Political Geography:: Global Focus

92. From tick box to turning point: Getting accountability right for improved humanitarian action

Author:: Jennifer Doherty
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: This paper identifies key challenges and essential issues that need to be addressed to create positive change for people affected by crisis. It draws on a synthesis of different types of evidence, including: focus groups discussions with and survey data from people affected by crisis a literature review small round-table discussions with humanitarian decision-makers key informant interviews with policymakers and practitioners across the sector. The paper offers humanitarian leaders within donor organisations and operational agencies 12 key recommendations - areas that they should invest in as they grapple with accountability as one of the key sticking points holding the humanitarian system back from making progress for crisis-affected people. The paper concludes by identifying key evidence and learning gaps to which agencies could contribute by documenting and sharing their learning, as they take steps to more firmly centre their work around the perspectives of people affected by crisis.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, Accountability, and Donors
Political Geography:: Global Focus

93. Neither Settler Nor Native:The Making and Unmaking of Permanent Minorities with Mahmood Mamdani

Author:: Mahmood Mamdani
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:: Professor Mahmood Mamdani examines how the colonial state and the nation-state have been mutually constructed through the politicization of a religious or ethnic majority at the expense of an equally manufactured minority. He proffers that political violence demands political solutions: not criminal justice for perpetrators but a rethinking of the political community for all survivors—victims, perpetrators, bystanders, beneficiaries—based on common residence and the commitment to build a common future without the permanent political identities of settler and native.
Topic:: Political Violence, Minorities, Colonialism, State, Identity, Settlers, and Natives
Political Geography:: Global Focus

94. Free and Open Spaces: Small and Medium-Sized Nations Can Reshape the Modern World

Author:: James Jay Carafano and Márton Ugrósdy
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: What if most people are wrong about the future? The presumption—the conventional view, both in the policymaking world and in academia—is that great powers have the greatest influence in shaping geopolitics. There is also a presumption that great power competition will inevitably lead to dividing the world into hard spheres of influence, and that there will be an inevitable competition over dominating the “commons,” the routes of air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace that unite the world. We think all these assumptions are wrong. We think there is evidence to the contrary. Indeed, when great powers compete most, this often creates more space for other states to exercise influence. We argue that the countries spanning the traditional pathways of the Silk Road region from Europe and Türkiye to the Caucasus and Central Asia have that power in their hands, if, that is, they are wise in how they wield it. This essay will outline, in broad strokes, the genesis of our argument.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Small States
Political Geography:: Global Focus

95. Carbons of War: The Environmental Impact of Military Activity in Conflict and Peace

Author:: Jahangir E. Arasli
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Climate change is the supreme challenge of our times, poised for human civilization. Its facets are diverse: the rise of temperatures, trending natural disasters and enduring weather extremes, droughts and floods, fluctuations of the sea level and hydrographic regimes, distressed ecosystem balances, and other aberrations. Climate change affects human health and demography, increases food and water insecurity, accelerates environmental degradation (such as deterioration of arable and grazing lands, deforestation, or desertification), shrinks biodiversity, and produces other similar effects. Climate change escalates competition for dwindling resources and, subsequently, generates frictions and tensions between states and within individual groups of populations, thus forming a stage for geopolitical and geoeconomic rivalry as well as potential violent conflicts and wars. The snowballing impact of climate change on a global scale steadily approaches the point of irreversibility. The grim irony is that climate change, in many ways, represents a result of different forms of anthropogenic activity, including increased carbon emissions. Although the climatic transformation is already acknowledged as the ultimate challenge of global magnitude, one particular aspect remains often overlooked. Warfare is one of the countless varieties of human performance. Wars and armed conflicts naturally yield an enormous impact on the anthroposphere and habitat. Beyond that, the existing military forces and their routine activities unwillingly affect the environment even in peacetime. Therefore, this essay examines different patterns related to the damaging impact of wars and military activities on the climate and the environment, with a particular focus on carbon emissions. Furthermore, it addresses the subject of climate changedriven conflicts and evaluates measures taken at the international and national level to mitigate the effects projected by military forces on the environment. The overall objective of this paper is to provide analytical support in the course of preparations for the 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Azerbaijan.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Conflict, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

96. The Battle for Green Supremacy: Carbon Markets, Artificial Intelligence, and the Problem of Climate Finance

Author:: Carlos Roa and Shubham Dwivedi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Observe the bee as it pollinates flowers, fruits, vegetables, and a wide variety of other crops; according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, around one-third of the world’s food production depends on their little wings. Watch as the beaver builds its dam, shaping the landscape of its local environment. Its pond stores carbon, improves water quality, creates a suitable habitat to support biodiversity, and helps reduce climate impacts. One cannot help but conclude that some higher order guides the work of these and other creatures; someone or something seems to be managing the delicate ecology of our world. Unfortunately, human beings are not as adept at such complex environmental management. As the world increasingly bears witness to the dramatic effects of climate change, the urgency for decisive action has never been more critical. With the planet’s average temperature continuing to rise, resulting in more frequent, severe, and unusual weather events, the global community faces a stark reminder of the imperative to mitigate this environmental degradation. The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Baku (COP29) represents a pivotal moment for states to commit to ambitious strategies and deepen international collaboration in the fight against climate change. At the forefront is the pressing need to explore and affordably implement effective mechanisms that can significantly reduce carbon emissions on a global scale.
Topic:: Markets, Climate Finance, Artificial Intelligence, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

97. War, Peace, and Law

Author:: Miguel Ayuso
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: We are going to deal with peace in relation to law in the broad context of the Western philosophic tradition, presented in these pages through a traditional Catholic prism rooted in what one can characterize as Thomistic realism. Naturally, when defining peace, war appears by comparison or opposition. And, naturally, it is therefore also necessary to deal with war in some detail in order to contribute to a better definition of peace. First of all, some doubt arises about this relationship. For if peace is—in St. Augustine’s definition—the tranquillity of order, it is not only the absence of war, but something positive: order, hierarchy, harmony, etc. But if, on the other hand, it is the neutralization of conflict, as Italian academician Danilo Castellano says, that war must somehow make its presence felt again, even if its disappearance is postulated. We shall deal briefly with both in what follows, concluding with a reminder of “just war” and a conclusion on “just peace."
Topic:: War, Law, Philosophy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

98. What Is Public Diplomacy? Fostering Cooperation, Countering Disinformation

Author:: Alan K. Henrikson
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Among the various kinds of diplomacy, one of the newest to be designated with a distinct name is “public diplomacy.” This is a supportive function, for like an actor in the theatre, the public diplomat plays a part. It may be a significant part, but rarely if ever is it the ‘lead.’ Public diplomacy assists leaders and senior officials of governments and of international organizations by presenting and explaining their policies and, more broadly, managing the communications aspects of their strategies. Public diplomacy work—the role of which is mainly informational—nowadays has included cultural interaction and educational exchange as well. For some countries, those functions have been handled somewhat separately, even at arm’s length, from political representation and policy promotion (e.g., the British Council, Alliance Française, Goethe Institut, Instituto Cervantes, and Confucius Institute). Public diplomacy is not, I wish to emphasize, merely instrumental—a means to any end. It is a purposeful activity, with qualities that are inherent, the aims of which are not arbitrarily chosen. Public diplomacy is a purposeful activity, with qualities that are inherent, the aims of which are not arbitrarily chosen. There are objective standards in the world, including those of natural science and scholarly knowledge, to which it may owe its convincingness. Because public diplomacy operates in the judgmental realm of popular opinion, which in the globalized world of today is more and more universal in scope, it must, in order to be effective, appeal to the reason, tastes, values, and aspirations of peoples of different traditions in distant s o c i e t i e s — o v e r whom no formal or direct political authority is held or control exercised. Its objectives must be achieved noncoercively and for the most part openly, through public media and transparent private communication. It works primarily through persuasion and attraction, rather than by command, employment of force, or subterfuge. That is not to deny that manipulation can occur, as with military “information operations.” Insofar as public diplomacy succeeds in assisting a government or an organization to achieve its purposes, it is, despite its noncoerciveness, powerful. Influence over minds, from the level of the individual to that of society, is an ultimate arbiter. “Public opinion,” as Napoleon Bonaparte famously advised, “is the thermometer a monarch should constantly consult.” Today’s leaders, irrespective of the type of regime or political form in which they operate, can rise or fall according to it
Topic:: International Cooperation, Disinformation, and Public Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

99. Foreign Interference Online: Where Disinformation Infringes on Freedom of Thought

Author:: Wesley Wark
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: “Foreign interference targeting democratic societies works not by the classic Orwellian formula of ruthless powers limiting sources of information and knowledge,” Wesley Wark writes, but by “multiplying and amplifying chosen channels of information, and attempting to corrupt the availability of true information in favour of that which is both false and harmful.” At their most intense, disinformation campaigns amount to “cognitive warfare, a hostile attempt to alter thinking.” In a social media–saturated world, these operations find many and diverse channels for disinformation’s spread, which depends on the inculcation of “fearful unknowing” in the targeted, often vulnerable, audience. A campaign’s objectives might be both direct and indirect: an aim to influence electoral outcomes could overlap with a broader goal to undermine confidence in democratic processes. Public attention to the issue of foreign state interference, as recently experienced in Canada and currently the subject of a judicial inquiry, is the first indicator that freedom of thought principles might be in play. Wark suggests ways to counter these campaigns, beginning with government taking the lead in enhancing public understanding of all national security threats, including those posed by disinformation.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Democracy, Internet, Social Media, Disinformation, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Canada and Global Focus

100. Conceptualizing Global Governance of AI

Author:: Maral Niazi
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Merging artificial intelligence (AI) and global governance, global AI governance focuses on defining terms to deepen understanding, promote collaboration and create informed policies. It emphasizes multi-stakeholder and multi-level cooperation in managing AI’s global impacts. AI’s societal impacts are broad, offering exceptional benefits while carrying unintended risks. Its rise poses geopolitical challenges, affecting transparency, privacy and power dynamics in both democratic and non-democratic states. Empirical and normative research is essential in forming global AI governance, guiding ethical values and legal practices for ethical data use and unbiased algorithm development. Empirical research provides verifiable knowledge through data and experiences, highlighting regime complexities in an anarchic system of global governance, meaning a system with no central authority. Normative research examines values and norms, assessing AI systems’ trustworthiness and ethical compliance. Multilateral cooperation in global AI governance involves collaborative efforts among numerous actors to establish universally accepted norms and policies for AI. An institutional framework for global AI governance should incorporate lessons from international organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the European Organization for Nuclear Research/Conseil européen pour la recherche nucléaire to guide AI’s ethical development and deployment within and beyond national borders. ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Topic:: International Cooperation, Governance, Multilateral Relations, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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