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2. MIRAGE Model Documentation Version 2.0
- Author:
- Antoine Bouët, Lionel Fontagné, Christophe Gouel, Houssein Guimbard, Cristina Mitaritonna, Balthazar de Vaulchier, and Yu Zheng
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
- Abstract:
- MIRAGE is a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, initially devoted to trade policy analysis and more recently applied to long-term growth and environmental issues. It incorporates energy, carbon pricing, imperfect competition, and rigid investment allocation, in a sequential dynamic setup where installed capital is assumed to be immobile. The model provides trade analysis with detailed treatment of trade costs and Armington specifications, drawing upon a detailed measure of trade barriers through the MAcMap-HS6 database. Production features nested CES functions with capital-energy bundles under both perfect and imperfect competition frameworks, while final demand follows a LES-CES utility function. The sequential dynamic framework enables longterm simulations by combining total factor productivity calibration with macroeconomic projections from the MaGE model. The most recent version offers significant improvements in electricity sector modeling with renewable energy representation, base-load and peak-load dinstinctions, and detailed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions accounting with carbon market mechanisms. This documentation provides complete technical specifications, calibration procedures, and implementation guidelines for researchers and policymakers using MIRAGE for economic policy analysis.
- Topic:
- Environment, Trade Policy, Carbon Emissions, MIRAGE, and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Energy Data Spaces and Market Power: a new challenge for data sovereignty and its governance
- Author:
- Emanuele Giovannetti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- This paper examines how the digitalisation of energy markets, driven by smart meter data and Energy Data Spaces, is reshaping competition in retail electricity services. It analyses the implications for market power, consumer outcomes, and data sovereignty, highlighting the regulatory challenges posed by data-driven business models that operate across national boundaries.
- Topic:
- Markets, Governance, Regulation, Digitalization, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
4. Variables of War
- Author:
- Lutz Unterseher
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- This essay argues that wars do not result from immutable human nature but from political motives, cultural dispositions, and calculations of military opportunity. Wars are, therefore, preventable. The essay presents a succinct causal model of war’s outbreak. The formal causal argument: War’s outbreak is treated as the dependent variable; the independent variable is a mix of expansionist or preventive motives and a supportive war culture that glorifies offensive action and soldierly virtues (the “cult of the offensive”). Because such motives and cultures often do not lead to war, a further “sufficient condition” is posited: leaders must judge that a rapid victory is feasible, casualties acceptable, and domestic opposition manageable, typically by identifying structural vulnerabilities or “open flanks” in the opponent’s posture. This feasibility variable is an intermediate link between motives/culture and war and is filtered through perceptions often distorted by ideology, institutional dysfunction, or poor intelligence.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, War, Deterrence, Armed Conflict, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. How IPLCs Can Leverage BRICS for Inclusive Environmental Governance
- Author:
- Metolo Foyet
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs)face a pivotal chance to influence the emerging governance architecture of the BRICS+ alliance.Western-led frameworks (UNFCCC, CBD) recognize Indigenous rights but still struggle withimplementation. BRICS, representing over half the world’s population and major biodiversity,offers an alternative platform to advance plural knowledge systems and South–South solidarity. This brief proposes embedding Indigenous leadership within BRICS institutions, aligning newnorms with UNDRIP and ILO 169, and creating financial and knowledge instruments that sustaincommunity-led conservation. The goal is shared sovereignty in environmental decision-making,not token participation. The central question is whether BRICS can evolve from a geopolitical and financial bloc into a rights-based governance platform where IPLCs become co-architects ofglobal environmental policy, and whether multipolar governance can close implementation gapsby embedding Indigenous authority at the design stage.
- Topic:
- Environment, Governance, Indigenous, BRICS, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
6. The means of prediction and the production function of AI
- Author:
- Maximilian Kasy
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP)
- Abstract:
- The real AI governance challenge: Who gets to decide what AI systems optimize for? Current debates miss that AI conflicts are between different groups of people, not humans vs. machines. Power flows from control of AI inputs: Those who control the means of prediction (data, computing power, expertise, and energy) determine AI objectives. Current governance approaches fail: Individual privacy rights and market mechanisms can’t address AI’s collective harms and benefits. Democratic control is the solution: Give stakeholders affected by AI decisions a voice in setting AI objectives.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, and Prediction
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. Structural dependencies and choke points in GVCs: An industry-level analysis
- Author:
- Robert Stehrer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- Global value chains (GVCs) are intricate international networks in which the production and distribution of goods and services across multiple economies and industries is coordinated. Their complexity introduces strategic dependencies when economies or industries rely heavily on a limited number of foreign suppliers. Such dependencies can also create additional vulnerabilities, particularly at choke points (i.e. key links or nodes in the chain) whose disruption – whether due to political instability and geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, pandemics or policy shocks and trade restrictions – can halt production. This study builds on previous research by examining two factors: (i) size dependencies arising when an importing economy-industry pair relies largely on the inputs of a partner economies, and (ii) choke dependencies, where imports from one economy pass through another, creating potential choke points. Choke dependency is particularly concerning, as disruptions in the choke economy can impact not only its direct exports but also the flow of goods from other suppliers. Using the multi-country input-output tables (MC IOTs), this study introduces two indicators to assess dependencies: (i) ‘size dependency’, based on the share of an economy-industry’s foreign output sourced from a specific partner, and (2) ‘choke dependency’, based on the pass-through frequency (ptf) indicator, which reveals how often inputs from third economies are routed through a particular partner. An economy-industry pair is considered dependent if it meets thresholds for size dependency, choke dependency or both. This comprehensive approach aims to offer a deeper understanding of systemic vulnerabilities in global trade networks.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Global Value Chains, Vulnerability, Dependency, and Choke Points
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8. Criterios para una fiscalidad saludable: Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar
- Author:
- Julio César Muñiz Pérez
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- Especial consideración a los productos con alto contenido en azúcar La forma en que compramos y consumimos alimentos está cambiando, y la fiscalidad se ha convertido en una importante herramienta para promover la salud pública. Sin embargo, ¿Está funcionando adecuadamente la tributación actual sobre la alimentación? Recientemente hemos publicado un informe que analiza cómo debe diseñarse una «fiscalidad saludable» que sea verdaderamente efectiva, coherente con la normativa europea y justa para el consumidor. Lo que descubrirás en este informe: Ingredientes, no productos: Por qué habría que poner el acento en el “ingrediente objetivo” y no en penalizar categorías completas de alimentos. El IVA como mejor alternativa: Las ventajas de usar tramos de IVA diferenciados según el etiquetado, frente al empleo impuestos especiales. Evidencia vs. Recaudación: La necesidad de evaluar si estas medidas son eficaces para mejorar la salud o si solo generan un rechazo social. El papel de la industria: Cómo la colaboración y la innovación (I+D+i) pueden ser tanto o más eficaces que la simple aplicación de impuestos
- Topic:
- Political Science, Legislation, Public Policy, Public Health, Sugar, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
9. Universidad dual: Formación innovativa para el futuro profesional
- Author:
- Vicent Climent-Ferrando
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Fundación Alternativas
- Abstract:
- El dinámico mercado laboral actual exige una formación universitaria más ágil y relevante. A menudo, la evolución curricular de las universidades no sigue el ritmo de la innovación empresarial, generando una brecha entre la academia y las necesidades del sector productivo. La Universidad Dual surge como una solución clave, integrando la formación académica con la experiencia práctica en empresas. Este modelo no solo impulsa la actualización de los currículos, sino que también eleva la empleabilidad de los estudiantes al ofrecerles un entorno de aprendizaje real y aplicado. Sin embargo, su implementación presenta desafíos importantes: asegurar la calidad educativa, invertir en la capacitación del personal docente en las empresas y garantizar el equilibrio entre el estudio y el trabajo para los estudiantes. Desde Fundación Alternativas, abordamos estos retos. Presentamos un Policy Paper y una jornada de debate dedicados a analizar en profundidad el modelo de formación dual universitaria. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar su estado actual y proponer recomendaciones de política pública que faciliten su adopción progresiva, minimizando los riesgos asociados a esta transformación.
- Topic:
- Education, Markets, Labor Issues, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
10. Myths of Modern History: From the French Revolution to the 20th Century World Wars and the Cold War
- Author:
- Klevis Kolasi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Abstract:
- Jacques R. Pauwels’ Myths of Modern History offers a bold and accessible critique of the dominant narratives shaping our understanding of modern history, from the French Revolution to the present. As the culmination of the author’s acclaimed trilogy (The Great Class War 1914–1918, The Myth of the Good War, and Big Business and Hitler), this work provides a concise counter-history of twelve key events, analyzed in twelve chapters, that have helped define the modern world. Pauwels deconstructs myths perpetuated by the media, elites, and conventional historiography —myths that promote a sanitized and benevolent view of capitalism’s role. In doing so, he challenges readers to reconsider historical processes and their systemic causes.
- Topic:
- Cold War, War, History, Capitalism, Book Review, and French Revolution
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus