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301. How to scale up effective international climate finance by the EU? Tax coalitions and jurisdictional reward funds for the case of fossil fuel

Author:
Ottmar Edenhofer, Matthias Kalkuhl, and Lennart Stern
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper examines how donor countries can be motivated by self-interest to fund emission reductions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While not solving the broader climate cooperation problem, we propose pragmatic measures that do not require global consensus on future climate risks or binding commitments. We quantify the unilateral benefits for donors—reduced climate damages and improved terms-of-trade from lower fossil fuel prices—resulting from financing fossil fuel demand reductions. To address project-level finance inefficiencies, we introduce jurisdictional reward funds targeting governments, which also generate implicit wealth transfers to LMICs. A self-enforcing coalition of fossil fuel importers, such as the European Union and China, could mobilize USD 66 billion annually for mitigation in LMICs, cutting emissions by 1060 Mt CO₂ per year and transferring USD 33 billion per year. LMICs additionally benefit from USD 78 billion in reduced climate damages and USD 19 billion from lower fuel prices. We explore coalition stability, geopolitical considerations, and how broader tax and reward mechanisms could further improve global climate, forest, and health outcomes.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Tax Systems, Trade, Fossil Fuels, and Public Goods
Political Geography:
Europe

302. Transatlantic Ties beyond Goods Trade: Significance and Policy Implications of EU-U.S. Services Trade

Author:
Frank Bickenbach, Holger Görg, and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Trade in services is an important component of international trade and is becoming increasingly more important with growth rates exceeding the rates with which goods trade increases. This is also true in the bilateral U.S. – EU relationship: Trade in services, and especially trade in digitally deliverable services, is a highly important element of the economic relations between the U.S. and the EU. And it is growing much faster than goods trade between the two economies. Despite its importance, trade in services has received much less attention in political and public discussions on the transatlantic trade relationship – even beyond the current narrow focus on the U.S. goods trade deficit. Against this background this policy brief attempts to explore major developing trends over time in EU-U.S. services trade in general and EU-U.S. trade in digitally deliverable services in particular. In addition to services trade, we analyze the development of services supplied by affiliates of U.S. multinationals in the EU and of those supplied by EU affiliates in the U.S. We provide policy suggestions based on data-driven insights derived from the analysis.
Topic:
Globalization, European Union, Services, Trade, Digitalization, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

303. Hard to Learn for the Future? Field Evidence from a Digital– Green Classroom Pilot Shows No Gains and Lower Enjoyment

Author:
Leonie Dworsky, David Pipke, and Juliet Tschank
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We evaluate Raise-Up, a pilot in two Turin-area vocational schools that integrated project-based learning on digitization and the green transition into the regular curriculum. Using a difference-indifferences design on three survey waves, we find no positive effects on any pre-registered outcomes, including aspirations, motivation, competencies, preferences, and socio-emotional engagement. The only significant effect is negative: treated students report lower school enjoyment (−0.39σ), plausibly from higher workload. Impacts are more adverse for females, reducing self-confidence and perceived job knowledge, with no socio-economic differences. Post-program feedback aligns with these results, suggesting limited benefits and potential unintended costs.
Topic:
Education, Digital Economy, Labor Market, Skills, Green Economy, and Behavioral Economics
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

304. Who Pays for Higher Energy Costs? Distributional Effects in the Housing Market

Author:
Francisco Amaral and Steffen Zetzmann
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We examine how rising energy costs affect rental housing markets and inequality. Using listing data for the 30 largest German cities from 2015–2024, we find that higher energy prices are passed through to net rents in high-rent segments, where inefficient properties see significant rent reductions, but not in lower-priced segments. This asymmetry reflects tighter markets and lower demand elasticity in the affordable segment. Consequently, low-income households face much larger increases in total housing costs. Our results show how segmented housing markets can amplify inequality when energy prices rise, highlighting important distributional implications for climate policy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Real Estate, Energy, Housing Market, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

305. The Geopolitical Externality of Climate Policy

Author:
Timothé Beaufíls, Killian Conyngham, Maríene de Vries, Michael Jakob, and Matthias Kalkuhl
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper formalizes the geopolitical externality of climate policy and estimates its plausible magnitudes. Specifically, domestic reductions in fossil fuel demand depress global prices, thereby lowering export revenues for resource-rich autocracies – many of which allocate substantial resources to military spending. As a result, climate policy reduces geopolitical and security burdens on Western democracies, offering a potential “peace dividend” as a cobenefit. Exploiting the link between the European Union’s oil consumption and the EU’s costs of the Russian war in Ukraine as a case study, we highlight the relevance of this externality. We estimate that each euro spent on oil in the EU generates geopolitical costs of 0.37 [0.01 - 4.7] euros related to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Based on our central estimate, a carbon price of 62 euros per ton of CO2 would be required to internalize these costs. Even under conservative assumptions, our analysis highlights that the geopolitical externality offers a compelling argument for strong unilateral efforts to reduce fossil fuel demand in the EU.
Topic:
Climate Change, War, European Union, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

306. Shocking a CEO: Economic disintegration and executive compensation in manufacturing and services firms

Author:
Merchan Federico and Holger Görg
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper uses the Brexit referendum in 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment to estimate the effect of an exogenous negative shock to globalization on executive compensation for German companies listed in the DAX and MDAX stock indices. We show that it matters whether they work for firms exporting goods or services. The main results indicate that executive compensation in firms operating in sectors that export services was negatively affected, in particular through lower variable compensation. On the contrary, executives of firms that operate in sectors exporting goods were not negatively affected overall, though they experienced a compositional change (from bonuses to equity payments). Sectoral regressions suggest that manufacturing firms redirected successfully exports from the UK to other relevant trade partners, while this was not the case in the service sector.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Brexit, and Services
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

307. The Security Dividend of Climate Policy

Author:
Timothé Beaufíls, Michael Jakob, and Matthias Kalkuhl
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia’s financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. A one-euro reduction in oil consumption in the EU results in a security dividend of 37 cents (central estimate). Based on the security dividend alone, a significant carbon price (central estimate of 60 euros per ton of CO2) on oil consumption is justified – in addition to its climate, terms-of-trade, and local health benefits. Ambitious EU climate policy that reduces demand for oil and natural gas should be seen as an important pillar of the European security architecture, complementing military spending, diplomatic efforts, and continued support to Ukraine.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

308. Spatial distribution of housing liquidity

Author:
Francisco Amaral, Mark Toth, and Jonas Zdrzalek
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between location, liquidity, and prices in housing markets. We construct spatial datasets for German and U.S. cities and show that liquidity and prices decline with distance to the city center. To rationalize these results, we build a structural model with spatial search frictions. We argue that location preferences concentrate buyers in central areas, making markets tighter, more liquid, and driving up prices. Counterfactuals show that suppressing search frictions raises welfare and prices, especially in peripheral areas. Our findings highlight the importance of demand-side preferences and search frictions for understanding liquidity and asset prices.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Markets, Cities, Housing, Real Estate, Liquidity, and Assets
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

309. The consequences of the Trump trade war for Europe

Author:
Julian Hinz, Isabelle Mejean, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
• Using the KITE model suite, we study the economic costs of the Trump tariff policy for Europe, and analyze the potential for trade diversion from China. • If the current tariff regime stays in place, trade between the U.S. and China would fall dramatically, hurting mainly the U.S. and the Chinese economies. The direct economic impact for Europe appears limited. • The expected rerouting of Chinese and U.S. exports to third countries is likely to intensify competition between European and Chinese producers in key markets. European consumersstand to benefit from lower prices.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
China, Europe, North America, and United States of America

310. Ukraine Aid: How Europe Can Replace US Support

Author:
Giuseppe Irto, Ivan Kharitonov, Taro Nishikawa, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just 0.1% of their annual GDP on bilateral aid for Ukraine - a minor effort. To replace US aid flows and keep total support at the same level: Europe needs to double its yearly support to an average level of 0.21% of GDP. This is less than half of what Denmark and the Baltics are already doing and on a level of what Poland and the Netherlands do. In short: Europe as a whole would need to follow Scandinavia’s or Poland’s example. In absolute terms (billions of Euro), the biggest European countries and the EU Institutions will be decisive. To replace US aid and get to 0.21% of GDP, Europe as a whole needs to increase its yearly aid flow from currently €44 bn per year to €82 bn per year. The biggest donors for that effort will be the EU institutions (Commission and EIB), who will need to increase their annual support from currently €16 bn to €36 bn per year. Next comes Germany (from currently €6 billion to at least €9 billion per year), then Great Britain (from €5 to €6.5 bn per year), then France (from currently just €1.5 bn to €6 bn per year), Italy (from currently just €0.8 bn to €4.5 bn) and Spain (from just €0.5 bn to €3 bn per year). All remaining European donors would need to move from €14 bn to €16.5 bn per year. To avoid freeriding, we recommend offering financial incentives to those countries giving aid to Ukraine. Big Ukrainian donors (in % of GDP) could get priority access to any new EU-level defense financing scheme. Large Ukraine aid could also be exempt from EU fiscal rules, or deducted from each nation’s contributions to the EU budget. Military effort: On military aid, replacing the US will be more challenging, but is possible in many domains. We show weapon-by-weapon that Europe’s industry has viable alternatives for almost all of the main US heavy weapon systems donated to Ukraine. Europe also accelerated ammunition production and this effort would now need to be intensified at greater speed and scale, especially for howitzer ammunition. Our data show that the biggest dependency from US-produced weapons is in (i) rocket artillery such as HIMARS (86% of weapons for Ukraine are US-produced systems), (ii) Howitzer ammunition (82% US produced), (iii) long-range anti-aircraft systems such as Patriots (70% US produced). In other domains, European weapons play a more important role, in particular regarding Howitzers and battle tanks. Among the heavy weapons, US HIMARS and Patriots are hardest to replace, as is the supply of ammunition for these systems. Also, US intelligence sharing and satellite imagery are decisive. To respond to these challenges: Europe needs to ramp up the production of essential weapons and artillery ammunition quickly and broadly. It is advantageous that European donors already transited away from donating from stocks to procuring new weapons for Ukraine from industry. These procurement efforts would need to be extended considerably by making firm medium- and long-term commitments to weapon-producing firms. For US weapons that are hard to replace, Europe could place orders in the US and beyond. Viable alternatives to HIMARS include the South Korean K239 Chunmoo and Israel’s PULS. In addition, Europe could heavily invest in the development and production of alternative systems such as SAMP/T. European countries could also increase drone production considerably, both by European producers, and, more importantly, by directly investing in the highly successful weapons industry of Ukraine. Finally, Europe would need to move fast to build alternative digital, satellite, and intelligence systems, including accelerated and expanded initiatives such as the satellite internet constellation IRIS2.
Topic:
Foreign Aid, Arms Trade, Fiscal Policy, Military Aid, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

311. Capabilitarian Social Justice in EU: Care, Dependency, and the Conception of the Person

Author:
Elisabeth Schöyen
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:
The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:
While the European Union (EU) is nominally committed to the promotion of social justice by virtue of Article 3 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (TFEU), the substantive meaning of this objective remains an open question. By first presenting an ideal of social justice for the EU, and then comparing it to the acquis, this paper hopes to make a small contribution to a (necessarily larger) debate about the substantive content of the social justice objective and about the place of political philosophy within legal scholarship more broadly. To do so, Martha Nussbaum’s capabilities approach (CA) is used as a starting point. Nussbaum proposes a list of ten central human capabilities, all of which must be ensured (at least) at a threshold level in order for a given polity to be considered minimally just. Rather than considering the individual capabilities, the analysis focuses on the conception of the person underlying Nussbaum’s CA, contrasting it with the conception which emerges from the analysis of the legal subject in EU law. It argues that the latter is not only unrealistic but unjust. Focusing on the construction of the disabled legal subject, as well as its intersections with the statuses of ‘worker’ and ‘migrant’, the paper contrasts EU law and policy with Nussbaum’s normative ideal. It finds that the conception of the person underlying the construction of the EU legal subject is insufficiently receptive to care and vulnerability as constitutively human traits, and moreover struggles to conceive of personhood outside of a productivity framework.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Social Justice, Disability, and Person
Political Geography:
Europe

312. How to Finance Europe’s Military Buildup? Lessons from History

Author:
Johannes Marzian and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that budget cuts, e.g. on social or foreign affairs, were rarely used to finance military buildups. Instead, governments typically relied on a mix of deficit financing and higher tax revenues. The larger the buildup, the more dominant debt financing has been. In line with history and theory, Germany and Europe should again rely on debt financing to quickly increase its defense spending and military capabilities. To deal with the added debt burden in the medium run, governments could increase taxes, reduce subsidies and tax avoidance, and freeze the growth of social spending. Fiscal rules must not stand in the way of the defence of Europe. A warning example is the case of the UK in the 1930s, which refrained from significantly ramping up military expenditure and instead pursued a policy of balanced budgets and appeasement. Consequently, the UK was ill-prepared when Nazi Germany launched its attack. Germany should not repeat the errors made by Britain in the 1930s and should invest heavily in defense so as to deter Russia. To achieve this, defense spending should be excluded from fiscal rules both in Germany and Europe. A less clear-cut alternative would be the creation of new debt funds, such as a European financing mechanism or another "Sondervermögen" in Germany.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Military Spending, Innovation, Geoeconomics, Fiscal Multipliers, Rearmament, and History
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America

313. How to Finance Europe’s Military Buildup? Lessons from History

Author:
Johannes Marzian and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that budget cuts, e.g. on social or foreign affairs, were rarely used to finance military buildups. Instead, governments typically relied on a mix of deficit financing and higher tax revenues. The larger the buildup, the more dominant debt financing has been. In line with history and theory, Germany and Europe should again rely on debt financing to quickly increase its defense spending and military capabilities. To deal with the added debt burden in the medium run, governments could increase taxes, reduce subsidies and tax avoidance, and freeze the growth of social spending. Fiscal rules must not stand in the way of the defence of Europe. A warning example is the case of the UK in the 1930s, which refrained from significantly ramping up military expenditure and instead pursued a policy of balanced budgets and appeasement. Consequently, the UK was ill-prepared when Nazi Germany launched its attack. Germany should not repeat the errors made by Britain in the 1930s and should invest heavily in defense so as to deter Russia. To achieve this, defense spending should be excluded from fiscal rules both in Germany and Europe. A less clear-cut alternative would be the creation of new debt funds, such as a European financing mechanism or another "Sondervermögen" in Germany.
Topic:
Military Spending
Political Geography:
Europe

314. In Merz We Truss: Financial Market Reaction to Germany’s Fiscal Package

Author:
Filippos Petroulakis and Farzad Saidi
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
• This study analyzes capital market reactions to Germany’s recent announcement of loosening fiscal restrictions for defense and state-level spending, while establishing a €500 billion infrastructure investment fund. In particular, we examine whether surging Bund yields reflect growth expectations or fiscal risk concerns. • Clear evidence of growth expectations: The steepening German yield curve, rising stock prices, euro appreciation, and stable credit default swap prices collectively indicate that markets interpret Germany’s fiscal expansion as growth-enhancing rather than a reckless fiscal bet. • The contrast with the UK’s Truss-Kwarteng episode is stark: Unlike the 2022 UK “mini budget” aftermath, which triggered a selloff across all UK asset classes, Germany’s announcement has seen positive market reception across different asset classes, suggesting confidence in Germany’s fiscal credibility. • While the policy shift introduces some uncertainty, evidenced by modest increases in the European VSTOXX volatility index, this reaction appears calibrated and partially attributable to concurrent global market events, reinforcing the interpretation that markets view Germany’s fiscal expansion as responsible.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Budget, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Yield Curve, and Debt Brake
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

315. Veterans of Russia’s war of aggression: Failed reintegration as a threat to the post-Putin era

Author:
Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the eventual demobilization of troops is set to pose the greatest veteran reintegration challenge in Russian society since World War II. Problems that have already emerged, such as crimes committed by veterans, will almost certainly increase. Russian society is unlikely to be welcoming towards veterans, either now or in the future, due to emerging inequalities. These inequalities stem from the high rewards paid for military service and the many other privileges granted to veterans and their relatives. Besides offering various benefits, the Kremlin has sought to prepare for this situation by appointing veterans to positions in regional administrations. However, efforts to maintain their respected status will fall short amid the unprecedented number of veterans. Moreover, those promoted to high-profile bureaucratic roles do not actually represent the broader veteran population. The simmering discontent among veterans is unlikely to pose a critical threat to Putin’s rule because the conditions for any kind of oppositional political organization are non-existent under the current regime. Instead, the veteran problem, the scale of which remains unclear, could become a significant factor in deepening the political crisis in post-Putin Russia.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Veterans, Armed Conflict, Demobilization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

316. NATO and the Middle East: Turkey’s threat conceptions and attempts at stability in post-Assad Syria

Author:
Olli Ruohomäki, Toni Alaranta, and Iro Särkkä
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
With the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and potential growing instability in Syria, NATO has struggled to formulate a coherent position on the Middle East and to build a cohesive network of partners in the region. As the stakes rise and Europe becomes more invested, both economically and militarily, in Euro-Atlantic defence, the Alliance should not neglect the chance to further develop its cooperative security agenda in the Middle East. In this context, Turkey – NATO’s only member state in the region – can act as a link between the Alliance and the Middle East. Turkey and other NATO members have long held different threat conceptions, resulting in differing priorities in counterterrorism. However, ongoing negotiations between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), aimed at ending their long-standing conflict, could ease this divergence. While deeper cooperation between Turkey and European countries in the new European security arrangements depends on Turkey’s willingness to choose a side in the Europe-Russia confrontation, European NATO allies could still work with Turkey in areas where there is clear common ground with other Middle Eastern states, such as safeguarding an orderly political transition in Syria.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Terrorism, Governance, European Union, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

317. The EU in an age of empires: A liberal geopolitical force in the making?

Author:
Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, Harald Müller, Sanna Salo, and Saila Heinikoski
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
With the US under President Trump challenging the core principles of the rules-based international order, the EU finds itself in an age of empires. The rise of imperialist politics is forcing the EU to defend liberal democracy and economic stability, and to rely increasingly on likeminded partners in the absence of the US. Rising far-right populism, democratic backsliding, and institutional gridlock are weakening the EU. To maintain internal cohesion and external influence, the EU must reform its decision-making, strengthen democratic legitimacy, and accelerate enlargement through differentiated integration. The EU must redefine its relationships, particularly with the Global South. By stepping up as a development partner and demonstrating responsiveness and consistency rather than relying on purely transactional diplomacy, the EU can solidify its added value on the global stage. Facing economic rivalry with the US, the EU must enhance its competitiveness, deepen the single market, and strengthen the euro. Joint borrowing and fiscal integration could bolster the EU’s resilience and economic statecraft, ensuring that it can “stand up for itself”.
Topic:
Governance, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe

318. Reforming EU return policy: Proposed tools appear counterproductive for the Union’s external relations

Author:
Saila Heinikoski
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Return policy has been at the forefront of the EU’s recent migration policy, with significantly stricter rhetoric during the current legislative term. On 11 March 2025, the EU Commission proposed a new regulation on returns. It included conditions for the establishment of return hubs outside the Union, a measure that 15 member states had already advocated in a public letter sent to the previous Commission in May 2024. A comparable return centre has already been established in Europe: in April 2025, Italy started transferring returnees from Italy to a centre it operates in Albania. Initially, the centre was intended for the transfer of asylum seekers rescued from the Mediterranean Sea by the Italian authorities. The Commission’s proposal and the EU’s external return policy seem to have abandoned even the few previous cooperation incentives, focusing instead on conditionality and deterrence, which appear counterproductive in promoting readmission and cooperation with key countries of origin and transit. The proposal contributes to legitimising ‘innovative’ migration solutions by member states, to be followed by the forthcoming revision of the safe country concepts, which would need to be amended for the much-discussed transfer of asylum seekers to third countries with which they have no connection.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, and Return
Political Geography:
Europe

319. Four scenarios for the future of transatlantic relations: European autonomy and the American challenge

Author:
Ville Sinkkonen and Garret Martin
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
While concerns about the long-term durability of the US commitment to European security are not new, the unpredictable Trump administration stands out as a serious threat to the foundations of the transatlantic partnership. By analysing the US approach to Europe through the lens of two key variables – investment (whether the US prioritizes Europe) and control (whether the US seeks to dictate Europe’s policy choices) – the Briefing Paper maps out four scenarios for the transatlantic alliance over the next five to ten years. The four scenarios – neglect, partner, vassal, and bloc logic – each present specific challenges and trade-offs for Europe. However, the first two models, neglect and partner, are less thorny on paper because they would preserve European strategic autonomy. Vassal and bloc logic, by contrast, would likely present Europe with far more challenging dilemmas. American pressure to toe the line would compel Europe to choose between unpalatable options, such as surrender or resistance, while testing its ability to preserve autonomy.
Topic:
Power Politics, Governance, Democracy, Transatlantic Relations, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

320. Can France lead? European security in times of transatlantic crisis

Author:
Barbara Kunz
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
France has long been a driving force in the European security debate, yet it has often failed to gain traction for its ideas. This is particularly true of President Emmanuel Macron’s push for European Strategic Autonomy and his warnings of US disengagement from Europe. European fears that the Trump II administration will drastically reduce US engagement in European security affairs could now lead more European governments to see France as a more attractive partner. Since 2022, French perceptions of the threat posed by Russia have been converging with the views of most of its eastern and Nordic NATO allies. This development also translates into greater French military engagement on NATO’s eastern flank. Macron’s offer to engage in dialogue on the role of nuclear deterrence in European security could play a prominent role if transatlantic security relations continue to deteriorate. Yet France’s potential role in European security is limited by military and budgetary constraints. In addition, uncertainties pertaining to the country’s political future raise further questions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Strategic Autonomy, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Europe and France

321. The boom and crash of cooperative security in Europe: Four scenarios for the future

Author:
Sinikukka Saari and Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The post-Cold War European cooperative security order, based on shared liberal norms and institutions, has been challenged by Russia’s revisionism and aggression – and more recently by the alienation and even hostility of the United States. Cooperative security has shrunk in scope to an internal European order, shaped around relations among like-minded European states. To maintain this order, Europe will need to actively defend it, not only in words but also in deeds, and even militarily as a last resort. There is a crucial link between the fate of Ukraine and wider European security: the outcome of the war will effectively either validate or reject spheres of influence in Europe and, by extension, the basic principles on which the future of Europe is being built. Europe’s emerging military posture should be grounded in the key norms of European cooperative security: multilateral cooperation, democratic values and international law. Europe can leverage these strengths to navigate the global context of shifting power dynamics.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, European Union, Regional Security, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America

322. Germany’s ‘perfect storm’: A structural crisis for the EU’s engine?

Author:
Marco Siddi, Tuomas Iso-Markku, Harald Müller, and Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Germany is facing significant challenges in its foreign and economic policies, most notably the loss of Russian energy supplies, managing the economic partnership with China amid growing geopolitical tensions and, more recently, the prospect of an unfriendly US administration under Donald Trump. Domestically, Berlin is grappling with the consequences of long-term underinvestment in public infrastructure, limited innovation capacity, and sluggish productivity growth. Anti-establishment parties, particularly the far right, have gained popularity, limiting options for coalition governments after the February 2025 election. At the EU level, Germany’s leadership and its partnership with France have suffered setbacks. At the same time, no credible alternatives have emerged that could potentially replace the leading role of the Franco-German tandem. The next German government will have to contend with a deteriorating economic situation, as well as the long-term foreign policy challenges faced by the outgoing government.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

323. Russia’s war dilemma: Can the Kremlin seek peace without losing face?

Author:
Margarita Zavadskaya
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The Kremlin appears to be cautiously testing public sentiment on potential peace negotiations, using state-controlled media and elite statements to gauge reactions. Support for peace talks is growing, particularly among regime supporters, reflecting increasing war fatigue. This shift is largely shaped by Putin’s narrative that the war is nearing its objectives, reinforcing the perception of a strategic victory. Most Russians remain insulated from the direct consequences of the war, but exposure is gradually increasing through family connections. As a result, concerns about the country’s stability and the long-term costs of the war are rising. Even if peace negotiations take place, Vladimir Putin – not the military – will claim the political benefits by framing the outcome as a victory. Despite the war, Russia’s military elite has not significantly increased its political influence, and public trust in the armed forces has declined.
Topic:
War, Authoritarianism, Negotiation, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

324. Addressing environment-related risks in the EU’s crisis management: From greening to foresight and preparedness

Author:
Emma Hakala
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The EU and its crisis management efforts are increasingly challenged by environment-related risks, such as extreme weather events and their implications for stability, migration and food security. Greater recognition of environmental risks could bolster resilience and preparedness not only within specific crisis management missions, but also across the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy. The integration of environmental issues into crisis management has been hindered by unclear mandates, lack of knowledge and expertise, and a failure to recognize the potential benefits for preparedness. For better mainstreaming, the environment needs to be seen as a key part of comprehensive preparedness, for example by producing foresight data, identifying linkages between the environment and security, and contributing to early-warning systems.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, European Union, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Europe

325. Ceuta y Melilla: ¿casus belli España-Marruecos?

Author:
Daniel Sansó-Rubert Pascual
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Spanish-Moroccan relations have traditionally been characterized by a complex relationship from a political, geographical, economic, social, and strategic perspective. This relationship is often misunderstood and not always peaceful, especially in relation to sovereignty and territory, generating crises and tensions. Specifically, Morocco, practically since its establishment in 1956, has maintained a demanding and unilateral position toward Spain regarding Ceuta and Melilla, as well as the other Spanish territories located on the North African coast. To the question of whether a military confrontation between Spain and Morocco over these territories is feasible, the answer must be that, although highly unlikely, it is by no means an impossible scenario. Therefore, in the face of an act of Moroccan aggression, the legal response is unquestionable: the legitimate defense of the territory under international law would allow Spain to repel an illegitimate armed attack, using force and invoking the solidarity clauses that protect it as a member of the European Union and NATO.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Defense Policy, Lawfare, Hybrid Warfare, Armed Conflict, and NATO
Political Geography:
Europe, Spain, North Africa, and Morocco

326. Ceuta: dos escenarios bélicos que desafían la política militar y de defensa española

Author:
Juan Carlos Fernández-Rodríguez
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The threat to Spanish sovereignty over its African territory is a reality connected to regional security challenges and the military issue. Therefore, in this document, we will explore the various military scenarios we consider most relevant to highlight its nature.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Islamic State, War, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Spain, Morocco, North Africa, and Europe

327. Come and (Re)discover China: Staunchly Patriotic, Sincerely Religious, and Eager to Further Engage with the World

Author:
Bart Dessein
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
While elderly women and men are happily singing and dancing on the shores of Hangzhou’s famous West Lake, grandparents are taking their grandchildren out for a stroll and a boat trip on the lake. Buddhist monasteries in the vicinity of Ningbo, a coastal city south of Shanghai that has recently been elevated to a ‘new first-tier city,’ are teeming with monks who have retreated from every-day life and devote themselves to the word of the Buddha. On a daily basis, tens of thousands of ordinary citizens visit Putuoshan, an insular sanctuary just off the coast of Ningbo, devoted to Avalokitesvara, the Buddhist god(ess) of compassion. In a small place in the neighborhood of Ningbo, the local monastery has newly built the ‘Avalokitesvara’s Dharma-world,’ a temple complex in full marble, ornamented with precious stones and gold leaf, venerating the same Buddhist god(ess). Also in early morning Beijing, hundreds of people are queuing up, waiting for the gates of the Lama temple to open, so that they can enter to pay their respect to the Buddhist deities. Meanwhile, the number of European tourists – despite the extended visa free travel possibilities of up to one month for many European citizens – can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Even in cities such as Shanghai where, judging from the attendance in the breakfast room of an international hotel, the foreign guests are of Indian or Near-Eastern descent, and where shops that have closed down business and commercial spaces for rent in newly built high-rise buildings catch the eye. Also in Hangzhou (equally a new first-tier city), top-end restaurants and small street stalls alike are waiting for customers. This picture is repeated in Anyang, a provincial town in Henan Province, where waitresses and waiters brave the freezing cold to lure customers into their restaurants.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Religion, and Tourism
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia-Pacific

328. NATO: The Damage Is Done – So Think Big

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
For seventy-six years, NATO tried to prove Lord Palmerston wrong. Now it turns out that he was right after all: “We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow”. The second Trump Administration behaves as Europe’s rival, not as its ally. It is too late for mere damage control. Placating Trump will not work either: unrestrained, he will just go further and further. Europeans must present the US with a clear idea of which NATO they want, and what they will invest to get it. That is the way to salvage the Alliance at the NATO Summit in The Hague in June. The damage is done. Because even if the US were to radically alter course and recommit fully to NATO as we knew it, everyone now knows that a next President may change it back again. The US cannot treat NATO the way it treats the agreements on climate change: it joins, it leaves, it rejoins, and leaves again. Deterrence demands constancy, or there is no deterrence. Unless it is actually tested in war, Article 5 will now never be as credible as before. This has already affected the global balance of power: adversaries who perceive that the US may not stand by Europe may be emboldened and become more aggressive. Against Europe, but also against the US, whose erratic economic and foreign policies Europe will not follow.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

329. Summits and Sanctions, War and Peace: Is the EU Still in the Game?

Author:
Sven Biscop
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
As I set out for Beijing in early July, to teach my annual summer course on grand strategy and great powers, I knew in advance what all my Chinese interlocutors would make fun of: Mark Rutte’s and Donald Trump’s embarrassing “Daddy moment” at the NATO Summit in The Hague, epitomising European subservience to the United States. While I was still in Beijing, the EU-China Summit produced the expected non-result. That didn’t seem to bother my Chinese contacts, or so they pretended. And shortly after returning to Brussels, Ursula von der Leyen and Trump announced the EU-US trade deal – a bad deal whose main merit is that it avoided an even worse one. Even the EU’s claim to be a strong and unified economic player, as opposed to its often divided diplomatic and military posture, begins to sound hollow. One has to wonder: is the EU still in the game of great power politics?
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Grand Strategy, Trade, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
China and Europe

330. Fit for the Future? A Review of the Belgian Defence’s 2025 Strategic Vision

Author:
Wannes Verstraete
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The new Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), Alexus G. Grynkewic, said in July 2025 that NATO should prepare for the threat of two simultaneous wars in Europe and the Pacific within two years (2027), instigated and potentially coordinated by Russia and the People’s Republic of China. This devastating and near-future scenario should drive Allied Defence policymaking with a single goal in mind, namely deterring such an outcome, and if deterrence fails, defending Allied interests. General Grynkewic also mentioned during his confirmation hearing at the United States Senate Armed Services Committee that he will “conduct a 90-day assessment to evaluate” the priorities for the U.S. European Command (USEUCOM). This ongoing assessment will be a key element to determine the evolution of the USEUCOM force posture in the European theatre during the coming years.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
Europe and Belgium

331. Semiconductors and Statecraft: Belgium’s Role in Europe’s Technological Sovereignty

Author:
Victor De Decker and Marcus Loiseau
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Belgium’s global role in semiconductors hinges not on scale but on control of a strategic chokepoint: upstream innovation. With imec at its centre, Belgium functions as Europe’s semiconductor R&D engine – but this asymmetric position leaves the country structurally exposed. Without manufacturing capacity, talent diversification, or broader ecosystem scaling, Belgium risks becoming a high-value subcontractor in a geopolitical and financial game it does not fully control. To remain indispensable – and not merely useful – Belgium must convert R&D dominance into strategic leverage, push for Chips Act reforms that close the EU’s coordination gaps, build scaling innovation ecosystems, and expand its influence within a fragmented European industrial policy landscape.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Sovereignty, European Union, Innovation, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Europe

332. From Syria to the Black Sea: Containing Russia, Partnering with Turkey?

Author:
Bernard Siman
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The outcome of the Russo-Turkish power competition in Syria will impact the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea. This, in turn, will impact the outcome of any peace negotiations with Ukraine and its relative position in the Black Sea. The future of Syria very much matters for the EU, therefore. Because blunting Russia’s attempts at achieving dominance over the Black Sea will play an important role in Europe’s security. And because the Syrian coast is only 300KM from Cyprus, the EU’s southeastern most border. Syria is the EU’s neighbour for all intents and purposes. In Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea, Turkey and the EU finally have a key strategic objective in common.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Turkey, Syria, and Black Sea

333. The Fog: The Opacity That Warns

Author:
Joris Van Bladel
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Now in its fourth year, Russia’s war on Ukraine has become more than a battlefield confrontation. It is fire, ice, and fog at once: the hot war in Ukraine fought with mass, drones, and attrition; the cold confrontation with NATO, centred on escalation management; and the fog of Russia’s internal struggle, marked by fatigue, militarisation, repression, and a growing social isolation, as much of the population seeks to distance itself from the war both mentally and in daily life. Considered alone, each dimension distorts the picture. Taken together, they reveal a Russia both fragile and resilient, archaic and adaptive. This is Part III: The Fog, examining Russia’s internal front—the least legible dimension of the conflict. The system performs strength while pressure accumulates beneath the surface: raison d’état coexists with societal passivity, producing fragility that yields lurches rather than orderly decline. This Policy Brief maps that opacity through an economy of exhaustion, the “veteran variable” as battlefield costs migrate home, a society that holds still under pressure, elite cohesion sustained by fear and performance, and the indicators that often precede sudden shifts. The policy lesson is simple: do not mistake opacity for stability—prepare for discontinuity, monitor the silent front, and prioritise endurance over spectacle.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Political stability, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

334. The Ice: The Confrontation That Cannot Thaw

Author:
Joris Van Bladel
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Europe’s debate over Russia is sharply divided along ideological, epistemological, and geographical lines, crystallised by Fiona Hill’s June 2025 warning that “Russia is at war with Britain.” While sceptics downplay the threat and frame Western policy as the driver of Russian behaviour, others emphasise Russia’s capabilities and ambitions yet struggle to reconcile its simultaneous weakness and aggression. Van Bladel resolves this through the fragile-state paradigm, where capacity limits foster risk-taking coercion rather than restraint. This brief (Part II in a three-part series) systematically assesses Russia’s layered challenge: battle-hardened forces, grey-zone campaigns, conventional build-up in key regions, nuclear signalling, and adaptive but inconsistent execution. Democracies must prepare for rare but catastrophic “fat-tail” risks, emphasising endurance over spectacle—munitions stockpiles over prestige platforms, redundancy over efficiency, rehearsed decision-making over rhetorical unity—ensuring a measured response compatible with liberal deomcracy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Fragile States, Gray Zone, Coercion, and Aggression
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

335. The Fire: The Offensive Meant to Decide the War

Author:
Joris Van Bladel
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Now in its fourth year, Russia’s war on Ukraine has become more than a battlefield confrontation. It is fire, ice, and fog at once: the hot war in Ukraine fought with mass, drones, and attrition; the cold confrontation with NATO, centered on escalation management; and the fog of Russia’s internal struggle, marked by fatigue, militarization, repression, and a growing social isolation, as much of the population seeks to distance itself from the war both mentally and in daily life. Considered alone, each dimension distorts the picture. Taken together, they reveal a Russia both fragile and resilient, archaic and adaptive. This is Part I: The Fire, focusing on Russia’s war against Ukraine. Two further Policy Briefs will follow, each covering the other fronts of Russia’s struggle.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

336. The EU-India Strategic Relationship in Times of Geopolitical Turmoil

Author:
Jan Luykx
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
After an eventful geopolitical summer, the India-EU relationship has been pushed completely to the political background. The waves created by President Trump have unbalanced both India and the EU. While this seems to have pushed the EU-India relationship into the background, it has the potential of opening up opportunities for working together more closely in several significant areas. It is up to the EU and India to take up this challenge and to carry forward their stated intention of strengthening their strategic relationship. While developing this strategic relationship, New Delhi and Brussels will both be forced to consider the reality of their respective relationships with Washington, Beijing and Moscow, in a context of shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe and India

337. Keep NATO focused on Europe, not China

Author:
Thomas P. Cavanna
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
During the Trump I and Biden presidencies, the United States applied growing pressure on NATO to turn against China. Although focused on protecting Europe, these efforts also attempted to expand the alliance’s prerogatives into the Indo-Pacific. Should this expansion continue, it could distract NATO from Russia, the only real threat that Europe faces. It could also delay the emergence of a more autonomous Europe able to defend itself, thereby perpetuating current U.S. overstretch and reducing Washington’s ability to concentrate on the China challenge in Asia. NATO’s turn against China might generate undue tensions with the PRC, deepen Sino-Russian cooperation, and cause controversy in the Global South, all of which would work against U.S. interests. Instead of trying to fold Europe and Asia together to counter the Sino-Russian axis along the Eurasian rimland, the U.S. should keep NATO focused on Russia and encourage European strategic autonomy. It should refocus its own efforts on the Indo-Pacific and reduce the risk of escalation with Beijing.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Expansionism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia

338. DONG to Ørsted: Seven Insights to Transform National Oil Companies

Author:
Giovanni Tagliani, Andrea Furnaro, David Manley, and Camilo Romero
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
The experience of Denmark’s national oil company (NOC) DONG transforming into Ørsted, the world’s leading offshore wind developer, is a case worth exploring. While aspects of Denmark’s story are unique and not easily replicated, many of the underlying lessons can apply elsewhere. Governments in oil- and gas-exporting countries have long worried about two things: the eventual depletion of reserves and the volatility of global oil and gas prices. In response, many have acknowledged the need to diversify their economies beyond fossil fuels—to create new industries, generate jobs, stabilize government revenues and earn foreign exchange. Yet, despite decades of ambition, few have managed to succeed. And now, the urgency is growing in light of the global energy transition, threatening long-term demand for oil and gas. This shift has not only pushed governments to rethink their economic strategies but also forced national oil companies (NOCs)—along with their private-sector counterparts—to outline their own diversification plans. While these corporate efforts may not be sufficient on their own to shield a country from the impact of declining demand, they matter. Understanding how NOCs attempt to diversify can help governments determine whether these strategies support or undermine broader economic goals. There are reasons to be cautious. Diversification by NOCs could end up wasting public resources if, for example, NOCs invest in poorly planned ventures, politically motivated projects or sectors where the company lacks expertise. Worse, if such efforts are not carefully aligned with national development and decarbonization goals, they can divert capital and attention away from other priority areas.
Topic:
Exports, State-Owned Enterprises, Energy Transition, National Oil Companies, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe, Denmark, and Global Focus

339. EU-North Africa Energy Partnerships: Is a Win-Win Formula Possible?

Author:
Laury Haytayan
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
The European Union and North Africa have complementary strengths in the energy transition, with the former harnessing technology and the latter, an abundance of resources. Partnerships between the two regions must prioritize local development, job creation and infrastructure in North Africa. It is essential that the European Union moves beyond the extractivist model for equitable energy partnerships. European Union investments should align with North Africa’s priorities, to ensure sustainable progress. Interconnected grids and renewable energy projects can enhance mutual energy security.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Partnerships, Investment, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and North Africa

340. A Mountain to Climb: Russia’s Influence in the South Caucasus and EU Policy Options

Author:
Sanshiro Hosaka
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh have triggered significant geopolitical shifts and resulted in varied manifestations of Russian influence across the South Caucasus, a region that Moscow has traditionally regarded as its “sphere of influence.” This report examines the implications of these events for Russia’s geopolitical position in Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. It analyses Russia’s opportunities and constraints across military, political, economic, cultural, and other domains. Russia’s influence is interpreted broadly, encompassing: Bogus Mediation and Military Deployment: Moscow exploits regional conflicts—such as Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia disputes—to position itself as an indispensable mediator while consolidating its military and political foothold. Non-Military Coercive Levers: Russia leverages asymmetrical trade dependencies, energy resources, media influence, cultural ties, diasporas (both Russian and target nations’), and intelligence connections to coerce target governments. Authoritarian Illiberal Alignment: Moscow supports regional autocrats in resisting democratisation (what they refer to as “colour revolutions”), enacting restrictive legislation modelled after that of Russia, such as foreign agent laws, and promoting “traditional values.” In Georgia, Russia’s indirect influence through authoritarian illiberal alignment has intensified under Ivanishvili’s regime. Armenia has begun to tacitly reduce Russia’s influence in sensitive areas such as intelligence, whereas systemic military and economic dependence persists. Azerbaijan has aligned more closely with Moscow in political-military spheres, although this does not necessarily translate into greater Russian leverage over Baku. The continuation of these trends, particularly for the landlocked and resource-poor Armenia, hinges on the outcomes of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations. This report recommends a multifaceted approach to strengthening resilience against Russia’s malicious influence while promoting democratic development in the region: Block Russia’s “Bogus Mediation”: Prevent Russia from exploiting regional conflicts to entrench its geopolitical influence under the guise of mediation and peacekeeping. The deployment of the EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia is a timely and significant step. Counter “Traditional Values” Narratives: Challenge Russia’s promotion of anti-western “traditional values” narratives by showcasing the compatibility of the EU integration with preserving local traditions and cultures. Diversify Regional Trade Routes: Support initiatives such as Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” to revive traditional trade routes and reduce dependence on Russia. Provide Shelter and Support for Civil Society: Offer robust backing for civil society activities that build resilience against Russian influence and promote trust-building in the region.
Topic:
Intelligence, Diaspora, European Union, Geopolitics, Annexation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

341. Ukrainian War Refugees in Estonia: Sociodemographic Portrait and Support Policies

Author:
Mykola Nazarov
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Demographics will be one of the most difficult challenges for post-war Ukraine. Depopulation, combined with emigration, poses significant risks to the country’s socio-economic recovery.[1] In July 2025, Ukraine’s government adopted a decision to merge the Ministry of National Unity with the Ministry of Social Policy.[2] The Ministry will now be responsible for the respective state policies, as well as the protection of the rights of Ukrainians abroad. Estonia has a significant proportion of Ukrainian citizens relative to its population. Understanding the sociodemographic profile of Ukrainian refugees and the level of support from the host country can be useful for adjusting the strategy for their return from abroad.
Topic:
Refugees, Displacement, Russia-Ukraine War, and Temporary Protection Status (TPS)
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

342. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Drone-Centric Warfare

Author:
Mykhailo Samus
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
In December 2024, Major Robert ‘Madyar’ Brovdi, a key figure in Ukraine’s drone warfare development, announced that his strike drone regiment would become a separate uncrewed systems brigade within the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Since 2022, Ukraine’s drone capabilities have expanded rapidly. Over a million drones have now been deployed. But this is not simply a question of numbers—the AFU has embraced a fully drone-centric military strategy.
Topic:
Weapons, Drones, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

343. Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Resonance of Ukraine’s Resistance

Author:
Ben Heap
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Ukraine’s messaging resonates because it reflects the audience’s values, beliefs, and historical experiences. Its power lies not only in President Zelenskyy’s skilled communication, social media savvy, and emotional appeals, but in the deeper principles it expresses—justice, sovereignty, and the rule of law. These liberal democratic values define what we are willing to defend.
Topic:
Democracy, Resistance, Narrative, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

344. A New but Ambiguous Momentum in EU Enlargement

Author:
Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
EU enlargement usually happens in fits and starts. Currently, there is an important new dynamic in the EU’s enlargement policy. Driven by geopolitical forces, the risk is that it will soon come to a stop.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe

345. Estonia’s Role in the Changing Architecture of Development Cooperation

Author:
Merili Arjakas, Hille Hanso, Ivan Ulises Klyszcz, Kai Kaarelson, and Solveig Niitra
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Development cooperation is a tool of soft power for states that enables them to promote their values, build relationships with partner states, and reduce global poverty. Since development cooperation is impacted by changes in the norms and power dynamics of international politics, it is essential to analyse Estonia’s use of development cooperation up to now and the directions it may take in the future. Firstly, bilateral development cooperation is becoming more interest- and business-based, with development cooperation by western countries also being increasingly shaped by the goal of promoting their own goods and services. For example, Sweden – one of the European Union’s key donor countries – is increasingly focusing on its exports. At the same time, it is hoped that economic growth in the global south will offer solutions to the global north’s security and welfare challenges, including migration. Another significant trend in the area is the growing influence of non-democratic donor countries that use development cooperation not to empower local populations but to consolidate or expand their spheres of influence. This shift is exacerbated by substantial cuts in development aid budgets in several western countries, including the United States – the largest contributor to aid – which leaves more room for China and other states offering an alternative to western governance models. Estonia has primarily focused its development cooperation on sharing its transition experience with countries such as Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, who have shown interest in the lessons Estonia’s example can offer and whose development directly affects Estonia’s security. These reform efforts include the promotion of democracy, the rule of law, and a favourable business environment, along with a strong emphasis on education-related development cooperation. More recently, Estonia has expanded its efforts to share its expertise in digital governance and digital education, particularly with African countries. A new area of focus is the export of Estonia’s education model, which might help address the high global demand for quality education, though there is still no national consensus on what the priorities in this sector should be and who the suitable actors are. The overarching aim of Estonian development cooperation has been to support target countries and their populations. At the same time, it has also served as a means to advance Estonia’s own security, reputation, and economic interests. Compared to larger donor countries, Estonian development cooperation resources are very limited, yet it has distinct strengths that should be better recognised internally and more widely promoted internationally. Estonia conducts strong bilateral development cooperation with relatively little fragmentation, in which it takes advantage of its strengths: digitalisation, flexibility, personal engagement, low coordination costs, and reform expertise. Thus far, Estonian development cooperation has focused on so-called smart cooperation (reforms, IT, and education) and supporting human development in middle-income countries. This approach should continue, rather than shifting towards infrastructure development in the world’s poorest nations. The reconstruction of Ukraine is an exception, where Estonia is both taking a leading role that sets an example for others and supporting a key security partner.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Poverty, and Soft Power
Political Geography:
Europe and Estonia

346. Kenya’s Foreign Policy Towards Europe and Estonia

Author:
Stephen Kimoita
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Kenya’s foreign policy towards Europe is largely motivated by the need to promote its national interests through trade and investment, as reflected in its 2014 Foreign Policy document (revised 2024). This paper explores Kenya’s relations with Europe and Estonia in areas of security, multilateralism, education, culture, and the diaspora. Despite having already achieved a close partnership, there is room for growth in Europe-Kenya relations. To maximise foreign policy gains, Kenya should fully leverage existing bilateral and multilateral frameworks for cooperation. Meanwhile, Europe needs to customise its exports to Kenya’s needs and pursue well-targeted trade and investment opportunities in areas like manufacturing.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Multilateralism, Investment, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Europe, and Estonia

347. EU Defence Series: Strengthening the Industry

Author:
Marianne Paire
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
With the March 2022 Strategic Compass, the EU “set out a common strategic vision and concrete objectives for strengthening the EU's security and defence policy by 2030.” [1] The Compass noted the deterioration in the strategic environment as a result of the return of war to Europe, increased competition between powers, the complexity of threats to the continent's security, and the undermining of the principles of the international order. In defence, the member states (MS) recognised the need to invest “more and better in innovative capabilities and technologies, fill strategic gaps, and reduce technological and industrial dependencies.” [2] This brief considers the EU’s progress in the defence industrial domain.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Defense Industry, and International Order
Political Geography:
Europe

348. The EU’s Dilemmas in the Black Sea Region: Security and Enlargement

Author:
Koen Claessen
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Black Sea region has gained renewed strategic importance for the European Union following Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As an area of considerable economic and geopolitical significance, as well as a focal point for potential future EU enlargement, its stability is now an urgent concern for European policymakers. Russia’s sustained efforts to undermine security in the Black Sea necessitate a coherent EU vision, moving beyond the fragmented scope of earlier initiatives such as the Black Sea Synergy and aspects of the Eastern Partnership.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Geopolitics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Enlargement
Political Geography:
Europe and Black Sea

349. Why the ‘Reverse Nixon’ Strategy Will Fail: The Illusion of Decoupling

Author:
Sanshiro Hosaka
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The second Trump administration has undertaken a peace deal with Russia. This policy may not simply reflect Donald Trump’s personal affinity for Moscow and deal-making style but is also likely informed by a certain strategic perception of the US-China-Russia triangle.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Decoupling
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

350. EU Defence Series: PESCO Must Step Up

Author:
Maxime Cordet
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), established by the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007, was intended to create a framework for the most willing and able Member States (MS) to cooperate on defence within the EU. It was activated by 23 of them in 2017. Today, all MS except Malta participate. This brief examines PESCO’s contribution to the EU’s growing defence ambitions and sets out the challenges ahead.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO)
Political Geography:
Europe