Political Geography: Europe - CIAO Search Results

201. Ride the wave: A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics

Author:: Agathe Demarais
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Eight months into the second term of Donald Trump, Europeans are still struggling to craft a coherent response to American geoeconomics policies in the trade, investment and financial spheres. The Trump administration poses massive challenges to Europe. It has imposed tariffs on nearly all US imports from the EU. It is also considering applying pressure on investors to pick sides between the US and China. Finally, it could soon try to engineer a forced depreciation of the dollar against other major currencies like the euro. For the EU, the best response to baffling Trumponomics is to keep calm and carry on. European policymakers should adopt a self-help mindset—resisting the urge to impose retaliatory measures that could damage European economies, avoiding futile fights over US policies that will not change, and above all, holding the bloc together. Europeans should also use this turbulent moment to push through controversial economic reforms. Such policies include deepening the single market to support those EU exporters that will lose market share in the US; leveraging access to the EU market for digital services; boosting innovation financing through regulatory changes; increasing the global role of the euro; and bracing for the coming currency wars. Europe’s ability to implement much-needed reforms will shape the bloc’s economic prospects, global standing and resilience long after Trump leaves the White House.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Investment, Trade, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

202. The power of partnerships: European climate leadership with less America

Author:: Susi Dennison and Mats Engström
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Global governance arrangements are under pressure from the climate action withdrawal of the Trump administration and, in many countries, from leaders’ fears of a growing domestic “greenlash”. The EU has adjusted its topline messaging in response, but most governments remain committed to driving the global green transition. Many countries around the world share the same goals as the EU and want to decarbonise their economies while creating jobs and moving up the value chain. However, in an interconnected world, like the EU, they all need partnerships to underpin their own decarbonisation. The EU and member states should heed partner countries’ requests for: greater trade openness to generate demand for low-carbon products made in the global south; share technology more generously; and establish stronger access to finance in pursuit of equitably shared green growth. These partnerships can contribute to alliances for global governance reform in order to futureproof the multilateral framework for climate action in an increasingly transactional world.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Partnerships, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

203. Reality show: Why Europe must not cave in Trump’s culture war

Author:: Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Europe is in a culture war with Trump’s America. Part of this involves Trumpists propping up their ideological allies in European politics. A deeper level involves humiliating Europeans in their dealings with the US. The two intertwine to tell a single story. Trump and his acolytes can only do this because Europeans let them. At the first level Trumpists exploit polarisation in societies and the rise of Europe’s “new right”. At the second they take advantage of division and hesitation among European leaders. It doesn’t have to be this way. A decade of crises has strengthened European sentiment among the public. Almost all member states still have mainstream-led, pro-European governments. This should give the EU’s politicians the courage to act—and defend a Europe that writes its own script. That would also help preserve a strong transatlantic alliance; one in which the EU and European countries are America’s peers, not its subordinates.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Donald Trump, and Culture War
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

204. The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa

Author:: Will Brown
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: Russia has made significant inroads in Africa—particularly in Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic and Mali—deploying military operations that, while limited in scope, are often devastating for local civilian populations. At the same time, Moscow has developed a powerful propaganda machine that taps into existing antipathy towards Europe, particularly France, to push African governments closer to its foreign policy objectives. Europeans have no genuine, resolute partner in Africa today. Most governments and elites are skilfully hedging their bets between Europe and Russia. Like-minded Africans and Europeans should push back with comprehensive sanctions on enablers, counter-disinformation campaigns, a re-evaluation of outdated development models, stronger military aid, and support for influencers who can challenge Russia-aligned narratives in local networks.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, Soft Power, Hybrid Warfare, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, and Europe

205. Eyes wide shut: How to read China’s playbook in the Western Balkans

Author:: Vladimir Shopov
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The EU lacks a clear “China conditionality” in its enlargement policy with Western Balkan countries—that is, defining and implementing conditions for candidates to engage with China—and the topic of China remains largely absent from accession talks. The EU’s own hesitant China policy is in part to blame. The union’s official stance of balancing cooperation and rivalry no longer reflects EU actions in practice, which lean towards confrontation. As membership talks stall, China’s influence in the Western Balkans grows, raising fears that new member states could act as promoters of Chinese interests and veto actions against Beijing in the EU. The EU must clarify its China policy and embed it as a clear conditionality in the accession process. It also needs to establish a firm timeline for Western Balkan membership and strike a better balance between requirements and incentives to encourage progress.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Western Balkans

206. The Future of Transatlantic Relations: Between Unity and Uncertainty

Author:: Martin Vokálek
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: On 19th June, the Brussels Office of EUROPEUM representing the Think Visegrad Platform organised a public event entitled ‘The Future of Transatlantic Relations: Between Unity and Uncertainty.’ The event took place at The Library Europe, Avenue de Broqueville 40, with a participation of 16 experts, researchers and civil society actors. The aim of the discussion was to critically assess the current state and future trajectory of transatlantic relations in light of shifting geopolitical dynamics, with particular focus on trade tensions, NATO’s evolving role, ideological divergence between the EU and the US, and external security challenges.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe

207. Polarization of the Post-Soviet region - A Harbor for Local Autocrats

Author:: Nino Imedashvili
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the challenging regional environment, marked by intense interactions and high tensions between Russia and the West, has often been leveraged by local autocrats to consolidate their power. By instrumentalizing the fragile security landscape and perceived foreign threats in the post-Soviet space, they have effectively obscured the decline of democratic governance. Since the 2000s, the international environment for post-Soviet countries has become increasingly polarized. As Russia has sought to assert its dominance in the region and strengthen its economic standing, the West has intensified its engagement with local nations. However, the European Union’s limited influence in the region has allowed the local authoritarian regimes to survive for many years. This was made particularly evident in two significant events in the region that significantly increased the level of polarization, following which, local autocrats, with the support of Russia, were able to take steps to reinforce their power. The first was the successful color revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine in 2003-2004, which sparked optimism for regional democratic development. The second was the full-scale attack by Russia on Ukraine in 2022, which dealt a devastating blow to those emerging hopes. This article aims to illustrate how certain countries in the region - specifically Armenia, Belarus, and Georgia – have leveraged regional polarization, with the support and in imitation of Russia, to reinforce their repressive governance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Polarization, Post-Soviet Space, Autocracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia, and Belarus

208. Nuclear Deterrence Explained: Strategic Implications for Europe in the Absence of U.S. Extended Deterrence

Author:: Iakob Dadvani
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Recent developments in U.S. foreign policy discourse indicate two potential future directions: prioritization or retrenchment.1 Trump’s foreign policy rhetoric clearly reflects a tendency toward retrenchment, particularly with respect to Europe. The most prominent indicators of this shift include the potential U.S. withdrawal from NATO European command, or a significant downsizing of its role2 , which would reduce the alliance’s overall combat effectiveness. This change would necessitate increased defense spending from European countries to maintain credible conventional deterrence, as the aggregate military power must remain constant despite reduced American involvement. Further to this are the moves to solve the Russia-Ukraine war by pressuring Ukrainians into negotiations that result in an unjust peace without security guarantees.3 Such an outcome would likely lead to long-term instability across the European continent.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Donald Trump, Regional Security, Russia-Ukraine War, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

209. How Much, How Well: Development Finance Performance 2025

Author:: Sam Hughes, Ian Mitchell, and Edward Wickstead
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: This brief examines how the 40 most important development finance providers perform in terms of both the quantity and quality of their contributions. Although several major providers recently announced significant cuts to their finance that are not yet reflected in the data, our analysis establishes the baseline for those reductions. We draw on a set of key indicators to identify shortcomings in how development finance is provided, and which providers could improve. Key findings: Even before cuts announced this year, the true volume of cross-border finance for international development fell in 2024. Despite hopes that newer providers might step up, in the latest available data the fall was slightly more pronounced in non-traditional providers, who made up 9.5 percent of the reduced total, down from 11.5 percent in our 2023 assessment and from 16.2 percent in 2020. Seven countries are providing less than half of their fair share of development finance—a much smaller share of their economy than one would expect given their income level. This includes Argentina, Australia, Chile, Hungary, Israel, Russia, and the US.[1] In addition, Austria, Czechia, Ireland, and Switzerland provide much less than expected: 0.1 percent of GNI below the average of countries with similar income-levels. Regardless of the quantity of contributions, there is significant scope to improve the quality of development finance. Our analysis shows, for example, a sustained trend away from providing finance to the poorest countries over recent years—the income of the average recipient country is now more than twice that of the low-income country average. Providing finance multilaterally offers scale and facilitates international cooperation, and many multilaterals are assessed as highly effective. Still, 12 countries provide under a quarter of their finance multilaterally, leaving others to support multilateralism. These countries include Norway, Japan, and New Zealand among OECD providers; and Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates in the broader group. In one bright spot, new analysis of recipient survey data suggests that recipients are expressing greater ownership of assistance programs. In our combined ranking of quantity and quality, we find Luxembourg has overtaken Sweden as the top performer on development finance while Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands complete the top five. Five countries with significant room for improvement in quality are New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Poland, and Türkiye—these countries are in the middle in terms of volume but all rank in the bottom third on quality.
Topic:: Poverty, Foreign Aid, Multilateralism, and Development Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

210. The European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus: Maximising the EU Guarantee for Leverage and Impact

Author:: Jasper Siegfried, Bernat Camps Adrogue, Paul Drummond, Mikaela Gavas, and Laura Granito
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: With increasing pressure on European development budgets, optimising the efficiency and impact of the European Union’s concessional finance is critical. This paper examines how the European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus (EFSD+) guarantee instrument can be strengthened to better support sustainable development in emerging markets. While the EFSD+ plays a key role in mobilising private capital, its complex structure, fragmented administration, and risk management limitations hinder effectiveness. Through a benchmarking analysis of major guarantee providers, financial modeling of the EFSD+ provisioning rates, and expert interviews, this paper identifies three key areas for improvement: (1) structural and operational efficiency, (2) impact and effectiveness, and (3) financial efficiency and risk management, advocating for data-driven provisioning and mechanisms to mitigate foreign exchange risks. By implementing these reforms, the EFSD+ can enhance its impact, ensure more strategic capital allocation, and improve financial sustainability, ultimately advancing the EU’s global development objectives.
Topic:: Budget, European Union, Development Finance, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Europe

211. Aid for Asylum Hosting: Time to Act

Author:: Laura Chappell, Sam Hughes, and Ian Mitchell
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: Following the recently announced cuts to aid spending—taking official development assistance (ODA) from 0.5 percent of GNI to 0.3 percent—it is time for the government to act, to ensure that asylum- and refugee-related costs[I] take up a smaller proportion of the ODA budget. Without action, refugee-related costs could exceed a third of total ODA spending.[ii] At present the FCDO effectively funds any ODA-eligible asylum-related cost that the Home Office can identify. This has contributed to significant unnecessary expenditure on refugee-related costs, with the UK now spending over two-and-a-half times more ODA per refugee than any other G7 economy. This approach also generated extremely high levels of unpredictability in the aid budget, with in-year budget changes larger in percentage terms than, for example, the annual cuts expected of any government department during coalition government austerity. But with a reduced overall ODA budget, the UK must do more to reduce the impact of refugee spending on aid spending. In a much more fiscally constrained environment, every available pound will be required for vital international work. And the FCDO will not have the budget latitude to absorb significant fluctuations in refugee spending, if—as could be the case—its allocable budget is not much larger than potential refugee hosting costs. We identify five options for improving the situation that could be adopted at the forthcoming spending review—or sooner. These options would provide additional downward pressure on refugee-related costs, while also increasing the predictability of the UK’s international spend.
Topic:: Migration, Displacement, Asylum, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

212. Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: What’s new? Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has upended European security and created a reality in which EU and NATO member states, on one side, and Russia, on the other, view each other as fundamental threats, even as the United States is poised to become a less reliable partner for its allies. Why does it matter? An unstable Europe has economic and security repercussions globally, not least given the nuclear capabilities of Russia, on one hand, and NATO on the other. A deeper understanding of assumptions and threat perceptions on both sides can help key players manage the risks of an increasingly militarised region. What should be done? Diplomacy and deterrence are both required. Kyiv’s backers should seek a settlement to the war that ensures Ukraine’s continued capacity to defend itself. European allies should reduce reliance on the U.S. and – together with Washington – pursue risk mitigation with Russia through limits on weapons deployments and other activities.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Multilateralism, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

213. Non-Malign Influence: What Does the Russian Community in Serbia Think and Do?

Author:: Srdjan Cvijic and Kristina Nikolic
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: This study examines the political views of the Russian immigrant community in Serbia who relocated following the beginning of a full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine in February 2022. It reveals the primary reasons for leaving Russia, the willingness to engage in political and civic activism, and their adaptation to Serbian society and plans for the future. The research methodology combines a public opinion survey with in-depth structured interviews with a representative sample of Russian nationals living in Serbia. The study confirms prevailing assumptions that this group tends to hold liberal, pro-democratic views, and is largely opposed to Vladimir Putin’s regime and its military aggression in Ukraine. These results counter concerns about the potential for this community to destabilise the region or serve as a vehicle for propagating Moscow’s influence. A significant majority of participants report feeling safe in their new country of residence and well-adapted to the local environment, with 40.2% planning to stay in Serbia for at least the next five years. Despite the widespread opposition to Putin and the war, however, most respondents (72.8%) express limited interest in engaging more actively in political affairs. This research concludes that Russians in Serbia prioritise their safety and economic well-being, and are hesitant to jeopardise these by participating in political activities that might draw attention to their opposition to the regime in Russia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Immigrants, Adaptation, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Serbia

214. Nationalist “Hijacking” Of Student Protests: Case Study Of The Telegram Channel “BUNT je stanje duha”

Author:: Katarina Bogićević
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: Drawing on the methodological framework of critical discourse analysis, the study explores the strategies through which extreme digital speech is camouflaged, normalised, and introduced into legitimate spaces of political action. Particular attention is given to the adoption of alt-right aesthetics—including irony, memes, and cultural codes—to legitimise and promote ethno-nationalist narratives. Through such subtle tactics, far-right ideological positions move from the margins and establish a presence within the broader protest framework. The analysis shows that BUNT’s discursive intervention targets not only the delegitimisation of liberal-democratic actors but also the transformation of civic resistance into a symbolic struggle for a nationalist order. By relying on emotionally charged and dehumanising messages, constructed “inserted elements,” and imagined threats, the channel seeks to undermine the democratic character of the protests and narrow the space for political and identity pluralism. Consequently, this study aims to contribute to the understanding of the complex dynamics of radicalisation within the interplay between digital extremist cultures and contemporary social movements.
Topic:: Protests, Students, Telegram, and Discourse Analysis
Political Geography:: Europe and Serbia

215. Serbian Malignant Influence in the Western Balkans

Author:: Luka Božović
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: This report examines the concept of the Serbian World as a framework for Serbian influence in the Western Balkans, promoted by political elites indirectly and more directly by affiliated actors in Serbia and region. While not an official state policy, the idea functions as a powerful narrative tool, blending nationalism, historical revisionism, and strategic influence to sustain Serbia’s regional leverage and consolidate domestic political control.
Topic:: Nationalism, Domestic Politics, Regional Politics, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:: Europe, Serbia, and Western Balkans

216. Projections for geopolitical competition to EU Democracy Promotion

Author:: Isabelle Ioannides
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This policy brief is authored by Dr. Isabelle Ioannides (Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme – ELIAMEP) and published in the context of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Obstacles and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood (EMBRACE). EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative (2022–2025) that seeks to strengthen the capacity of EU policymakers and pro-democracy actors to develop effective strategies for democracy promotion across five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa. It combines comparative analysis, stakeholder engagement, and new data collection to identify the obstacles and enablers of democratisation and to design practical policy tools for European democracy promotion. Focusing on Work Package 7 – The Geopolitics of EUDP, this policy brief addresses the turbulent geopolitical landscape in which EU democracy promotion must operate. Russia’s and China’s assertive roles, including disinformation campaigns, combine with heightened regional instability, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the spread of polarisation and populism within and beyond Europe. These developments create a volatile environment that constrains democratic progress in the EU’s neighbourhood and, in some cases, drives democratic backsliding. The brief stresses that the EU’s democracy promotion cannot be viewed in isolation from these broader geopolitical dynamics. Against this backdrop, the EMBRACE project organised scenario-building workshops in North Macedonia, Serbia, Ukraine, and Georgia, and conducted stakeholder interviews in Algeria. These consultations had a twofold aim: to assess the democratic trajectories and risks facing each country by 2030, and to evaluate how the EU can mitigate challenges while reinforcing democratic enablers. The locally led approach ensured that country-specific insights and informal power dynamics were captured, helping to refine projections for how external and internal pressures may shape democracy in the coming years. The brief concludes by offering recommendations for the EU to recalibrate its democracy promotion strategies under conditions of geopolitical competition and uncertainty. It underlines that effectiveness depends on tailoring approaches to local realities, anticipating risks through foresight and scenario planning, and reinforcing the EU’s credibility as a consistent and strategic actor. By integrating evidence-based insights and locally grounded perspectives, the policy brief contributes to EMBRACE’s broader mission of equipping the EU with more adaptive and resilient tools for advancing democracy in its neighbourhood.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe

217. Spreading Innovation: A case study on acceleration within the startup ecosystem of Greece, a Diaspora Nation

Author:: Ioanno Sapfo Pepelasis
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Startups do not operate in a void and institutions in their direct environment impact them. This working paper is a first in depth field research of a single accelerator in Greece, a country that is relatively lacking in international rankings for innovation and competitiveness. We chose to focus on MIT Enterprise Forum Greece (MITEF Greece, 2015-2022), the only accelerator in the country to be linked to an international university. We used a mixed qualitative and descriptive statistics methodology. Our main findings are that its accelerated startups and their founders stood out in the startup ecosystem in the following ways: founders were a mosaic of local and Diaspora Greeks as well as non-Greeks, startups had a global reach, with a presence in 20 countries and an impressive share in deep tech processes and sectors, thus enhancing substantially the geoeconomic reach of the Greek startup community. Indicatively among the top sectors medicine- life sciences, environment-energy, and technical solutions-robotics stood out from the beginning although this sectoral composition was not usual among startups in the Greek ecosystem especially before 2019. In a nutshell, MITEF Greece accelerated startuppers stood at the cutting edge of the nexus of innovation and internationalization in the Greek startup ecosystem. How was this made possible? We put forward the hypothesis that this outcome was attained as a result of the following multiple factors: the dedication; high expertise; open mindset; heritage of a culture of trust, reciprocity and strong sense of community (“μαζί”) of the Greek MIT graduates (local, brain drain and Diaspora), who were running MITEF Greece; the careful selection process of startups accepted in acceleration programs; the ample business and technological know-how resources available to MITEF Greece by the vast global MIT entrepreneurship community and its enthusiastic pool of Diaspora Greeks in the USA who were involved in the accelerator and its offspring The Hellenic Innovation Network. Although the case of MITEF Greece cannot be exactly replicated, we believe that it offers useful insights for minimizing the disintegration and lack of communication between support organizations and policies for the startup ecosystem. It is an extraordinary example of actively enhancing internationalization of innovation through commercialization of research results, an important GIFT for Greece at a time of rising deglobalization and global economic fragmentation. This is the ultimate lesson derived from this case study.
Topic:: Diaspora, Innovation, Startup, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

218. A deep dive in the White Paper on the Future of European Defence

Author:: Spyros Blavoukos and Panos Politis-Lamprou
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The White Paper on the Future of European Defence, released in March 2025, represents a landmark initiative by the European Commission to articulate a cohesive vision for strengthening the EU’s defence posture amid mounting geopolitical instability. Acting as a framework for the ReArm Europe plan, the document proposes mobilising hundreds of billions of EUR in defence investments, making use of national and EU resources. The ReArm Europe Plan and the White Paper clearly succeed in politically signalling the EU’s renewed commitment to defence investment and military readiness. However, despite their rhetorical strength, four major concerns could undermine their transformative potential: Coordination gaps: Without a robust coordination mechanism, national funds may be allocated to less pressing areas and may serve other – national and/or domestic – objectives and interests. In the meantime, the Union will not achieve effectiveness and efficiency unless it focuses on standardisation and interoperability. Financial markets’ sensitivity: While the activation of the national escape clause offers fiscal leeway, it is unclear how the financial markets will react to increased national debts. Alternative instruments, such as the Defence Eurobonds or the European Defence Mechanism, could be examined. Creative ambiguity: The Proposal for a SAFE Regulation includes references presented vaguely enough to allow for multiple interpretations and thus avoid frictions. In view of the negotiations in the Council, the issue of a third country’s participation in a procurement consortium must be further elaborated and clarified. Democratic legitimacy and parliamentary oversight: Article 122 TFEU sidesteps the European Parliament, despite the latter’s willingness to further support the EU defence initiatives. Without adequate parliamentary involvement, defence investments risk alienating public opinion in a policy area which requires broad societal consensus. All the aforementioned shortcomings reflect a deeper structural issue: the absence of a common threat perception and a truly common foreign and security policy. Without a coherent strategic vision at the EU level, member-states remain inclined to prioritise national over collective objectives and interests.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, European Union, Financial Markets, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe

219. The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition

Author:: Ioannis Armakolas, Dimitar Bechev, and Ana Krstinovska
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: This policy paper is authored by Ioannis Armakolas, Head & Senior Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, Dimitar Bechev, Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, and Ana Krstinovska, Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP is published in the context of the of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Blockages and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood. EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative that aims to enhance democracy promotion efforts in the EU’s neighbourhood by identifying key obstacles to democratisation and formulating evidence-based strategies to overcome them. The project draws on locally led research and stakeholder engagement across twelve case studies in five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa. Focusing on Work Package 7 of the project, the report “The EU’s Democracy Promotion and Geopolitical Competition” examines how the European Union’s democracy promotion efforts are shaped and challenged by both external authoritarian actors, primarily Russia and China, and internal political dynamics within partner countries. The report offers an in-depth comparative analysis of five case study countries: Algeria, Georgia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Ukraine. The authors analyse how authoritarian rivals deploy various forms of coercion, subversion, and co-optation, often exploiting internal political vulnerabilities. They also highlight how domestic elites navigate this external competition, at times instrumentalising their ties with Russia and China to entrench their power and limit EU influence. In this geopolitical context, the paper finds that EU democracy promotion tools are most impactful when tied to credible enlargement prospects and implemented with consistency and strategic sensitivity to local conditions. The paper concludes that democracy promotion is no longer merely a matter of institutional design or normative appeal, it has become a geopolitical contest where foreign influence and domestic agency intersect. As such, future EU strategies must account for this complexity and tailor instruments to local realities while remaining steadfast in their democratic commitments. The report closes with concrete policy recommendations aimed at refining the EU’s approach, particularly in geopolitically contested environments.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

220. A Strategy for Greece’s Defence Technological Industrial Base

Author:: Antonis Kamaras
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: Greece is entering a new phase in European unification. In addition to monetary union, we now have a defence union. The Greek Defence Technological Industrial Base (GDTIB) is in a position to rise to this challenge. With the help of realistic public policies, it could be included in the top three DTIBs among the eleven frontline EU states, alongside those of Finland and Poland. The successful integration of the GDTIB into the pan-European DTIB will strengthen the Greek Armed Forces, make the defence sector one of Greece’s economy most capital- and knowledge-intensive ones , and enhance Greece’s strategic alliances. Specifically, the more that the GDIB exports to the pan-European DTIB as it grows by leaps and bounds, the more it will advance the productive and innovation capacities which Greece’s military deterrence needs in an era which has witnessed the return of ‘Big War’.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Armed Forces, European Union, Deterrence, and Industry
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

221. The NSRF and the Recovery Fund in Greece, 2021-2027: the institutional dimension

Author:: George Andreou
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: During the current decade, Greece’s development policies are guided and supported by both the Cohesion Policy through the 2021-2027 Partnership Pact for Regional Development (NSRF) and the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan “Greece 2.0”. The parallel action of these two programming and funding instruments represents an unprecedented development opportunity for Greece and its Regions, but raises important issues of strategy, coordination and management. This paper focuses on the institutional architecture and the governance and implementation mechanisms of the NSRF and the RRF and attempts to explore the implications of these institutional arrangements for public policy in Greece.
Topic:: Development, Governance, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

222. Regulating Digital Fintech: How States Navigate Power and Geopolitics

Author:: Bipul Biplav Mukherjee
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This study explores the evolving role of fintech regulation as a strategic tool of geopolitical influence, highlighting how states leverage digital finance, data governance and artificial intelligence to reshape global power structures. It contrasts the regulatory models of the United States, China, and the European Union, each guided by distinct imperatives of innovation, state control, and digital sovereignty. The analysis underscores the growing politicization of fintech and the intensifying race for digital supremacy among major powers. Within this context, the article engages with issues of data decentralization, cross-sectoral data-sharing, and open banking—developments that promote financial inclusion and innovation but also generate complex governance challenges. The study concludes that coordinated transnational regulatory frameworks are essential to safeguarding financial stability and mitigating systemic risks in an increasingly contested and fragmented digital financial ecosystem.
Topic:: International Relations, Governance, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Artificial Intelligence, Banking, and Power Structure
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

223. From mission polity to mission economy: Making the EU a strategic investment power

Author:: Philipp Lausberg and Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The EU's number one challenge in addressing today’s intertwined economic, technological, social, climate, and security-related shocks is a lack of investment. In order to remain prosperous, free, and secure, the EU must overcome its massive funding gaps and become a strategic investment power like its principal competitors, the US and China. While learning from their investment models, the EU must develop a “third way” based on its own multi-level governance, aligning its strategic goal setting and policy design (mission polity) with financial tools to achieve them (mission economy). Now is the time for change. The volatility of US economic policy, the decline of rules-based institutions, and the rapid erosion of the ‘Washington consensus’ herald profound shifts in international capital allocation and markets. An investment surge has already started heading towards Europe. If it adopts the right reforms, the EU is well-positioned to reap the dividends of its model, based on rules and predictability, an open trading system, a stable ‘global euro’, and the supply of strong, high-quality investment opportunities. This month, the European Commission will present its plans for the EU’s long-term budget for the period of 2028-2034. the belief that the EU can meet present-day challenges without significant increases in common EU expenditures equates to magical thinking. At the same time, in the context of constrained resources and inevitable trade-offs, the paper argues for a review of the EU’s public-private financing infrastructure based on four principles of action: Concentration of EU spending where added value is greatest: European Public Goods; Mobilisation of a wider circle of public and private institutions from the EU and beyond; Active building of Europe’s investment market and financial attractiveness, including through the supply of high-quality tradable assets. Cooperation beyond established frameworks through off-budget instruments and coalitions of the willing, if necessary
Topic:: Budget, European Union, Finance, Economy, and Investment
Political Geography:: Europe

224. From Provider to Precarious: How young men’s economic decline fuels the anti-feminist backlash

Author:: Javier Carbonell
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: A new political divide is emerging in Europe: a growing gender gap among young voters, with young women trending progressive and young men increasingly turning to the far right. This paper argues that the rise of anti-feminist backlash among young men is not merely a cultural reaction to feminism but also the result of deepening economic precarity—particularly for working-class men without university degrees. Over the past two decades, young men have seen declining wealth, stagnating wages, lower employment rates, and worse mental health outcomes. In some EU countries, young women now earn more than men their age. This economic decline is not caused by women’s advancement but rather by structural economic changes, such as the rise in inequality and automation, which disproportionately affect men who occupy more manual jobs. As traditional pathways to masculine status—such as stable employment, homeownership, and provider roles—erode, far-right actors have capitalised on this dislocation by offering a regressive but emotionally resonant vision of masculinity. This gender divide threatens not only gender equality but also the foundations of democratic support itself, as radicalised young men often express weaker commitment to democratic norms. To reverse this trend, democratic forces must pursue a two-pronged approach: Address the material roots of frustration through ambitious economic policy: investing in housing, education, vocational training, employment security, and wealth redistribution for youth—particularly men without degrees. Redefine masculinity by promoting positive, inclusive male role models and creating new cultural narratives that empower young men without reinforcing patriarchal norms. Progressive visions of manhood must offer not only critique, but aspiration.
Topic:: Economics, Democracy, Feminism, Men, and Precarity
Political Geography:: Europe

225. The Spitzenkandidat: Time to rethink a failing democratic experiment

Author:: Eric Maurice
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Hailed as a breakthrough for EU democracy when it was first introduced in 2014, the Spitzenkandidat system has since failed to fulfil the promises made to European citizens. The system, based on an interpretation of Article 17.7 of the treaty on the European Union that stipulates how the Commission president is (s)elected, dictates that the lead candidate of the European party which obtains the most votes in the European elections should become European Commission president and was used in the election of Commission presidents Jean-Claude Junker and Ursula von der Leyen. This paper argues that the Spitzenkandidat system has not contributed to deepening the pan-European political debate, reinforcing the political legitimacy of EU institutions, or increasing the accountability of the European Commission to the European Parliament. On the contrary, the way that European political parties and members of the European Parliament have implemented the system has led to a more powerful and partisan Commission, as well as a weaker Parliament with less oversight powers. And while the European Parliament—engaged in an institutional competition with the European Council—has used the lead candidate experiment to establish a parliamentary government at EU level, this has created ambiguities over the form of government the EU should have and where legitimacy should derive from. On 18 July 2024, a majority in the European Parliament re-elected Ursula von der Leyen, the lead candidate of the European People’s Party, as Commission president. A year later, the Commission’s agenda does not reflect the political balance of the so-called ‘Von der Leyen coalition’ that backed her election, which proves that the Commission is not politically accountable to the Parliament. The first anniversary of her re-election is an opportunity to draw lessons from the Spitzenkandidat experiment and start rethinking how it can deliver on its democratic promises.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Citizenship, Participation, European Parliament, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

226. What future for rule of law protection? Towards a more effective use of the EU’s toolbox under the vdL 2.0 Commission

Author:: Maria Skóra
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Threats to the rule of law in the EU persist. Halting rule of law erosion in Poland has brought only temporary relief. Continued backsliding in Hungary and recent setbacks in Slovakia pose a threat to European integration and the EU’s legal order. Moreover, illiberal Eurosceptics are also on the rise in other countries, like Italy, Germany, France. Given the potential EU enlargement and the urgent reset of EU’s security and defence architecture, next to defending democracy, it is also crucial to continue strengthening the rule of law within the EU. Faced by the above-mentioned dire developments, the first von der Leyen Commission (2019-2024) placed the rule of law in the spotlight, developing a rule of law toolbox consisting of monitoring and corrective tools. The second von der Leyen Commission (2024-2029) vowed to take this matter seriously, making the strategic decision to continue tackling rule of law erosion by applying financial pressure, in particular: the instruments for protecting the EU budget. This Policy Brief looks at the future of rule of law protection under the vdL 2.0 Commission. It takes stock of the past failures and achievements, identifying paths towards a more effective use of the existing EU’s toolbox. It advocates for further development of financial conditionality, and making it a standard practice as well as building solid causal links between conditionality and the existing monitoring tools in order to avoid accusations of its arbitrary and politicised use. Consistency should become a guiding principle to foster the EU’s commitment to upholding the rule of law.
Topic:: Governance, Reform, European Union, Rule of Law, European Commission, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and Hungary

227. From Reception to Reconstruction: Leveraging a multi-stakeholder approach to displaced Ukrainians’ inclusion

Author:: European Policy Centre
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) hosts around 4.2 million displaced Ukrainians under temporary protection, granting them access to various socio-economic rights and allowing intra-EU mobility. Their employment rate is higher than other migrant and refugee groups, yet structural barriers persist, affecting integration outcomes. Temporary protection is set to expire in March 2026, compounding challenges. A potential US-imposed ceasefire adds uncertainty, making long-term planning difficult. While prospects for an EU-wide status for displaced Ukrainians post-2026 are unclear, they can already obtain national permits in some states. Many still hope to return to Ukraine, although this prospect depends on the economic and security situation in Europe and Ukraine, and grows less likely over time. Amid the combined effect of unspeakable devastation from Russia’s full-scale invasion and demographic decline in Ukraine, the country’s reconstruction – and in particular, the future of critical sectors such as construction, transport, agriculture, and public services – depends on displaced Ukrainians’ potential return.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Refugees, Displacement, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

228. Securing Europe’s civic space: Investing in democracy in the next MFF

Author:: Liza Saris
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: As Europe navigates a period of significant geopolitical transformation and rising illiberalism around the world, the foundational principles of Europe’s liberal democratic societies face challenges from within and from without. Across the continent, civil society organisations (CSOs), including think tanks, have to withstand immense pressures ranging from growing funding constraints to increasingly hostile operating environments. In recent months, clear political obstacles to safeguard civil society funding have emerged from within the European Parliament and the European Commission, as well as at the national level. Hostility towards independent CSOs is worsening thanks to the emboldening of political movements and organisations that are funded by governments who oppose a strong civil society. This trend has the potential to negatively influence upcoming negotiations about funding in the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), which includes the Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values (CERV) programme.
Topic:: Civil Society, Budget, European Union, European Commission, Council of Europe, and Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF)
Political Geography:: Europe

229. Delivering on Draghi after Munich: A quantum perspective

Author:: Ulrich Mans
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: In light of shifting transatlantic relations, Europe must assert greater technological sovereignty, with quantum technology emerging as a key strategic domain. The EU already has a strong foundation in quantum, but risks falling behind due to fragmented policies, low private investment, and supply chain dependencies. While recent public investments and initiatives like the Quantum Flagship and Quantum Pact are promising, Europe needs a bold commercialisation strategy and coherent regulatory framework. To secure leadership, the EU must accelerate industry adoption, align member state efforts, and foster global partnerships, including with the US, UK, and Switzerland. Quantum presents a defining test for Europe’s innovation agenda – and a critical opportunity to deliver on the Draghi Report’s call for strategic autonomy.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Innovation, Transatlantic Relations, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

230. Military retention crisis undermines Europe’s defence surge

Author:: Chris Kremidas-Courtney
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Europe is racing to rearm, but its militaries are losing talent faster than they can recruit it. Unless governments prioritize retention, Europe risks building hollow forces that look strong on paper but can’t deliver when it matters. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has triggered Europe’s most profound defence awakening in decades. It is a moment where the continent must reckon with hard choices and, finally, take ownership of its own security. European governments are rearming and raising defence budgets in response to the renewed threat from Moscow. Collective defence spending by EU countries jumped over 30% between 2021 and 2024, and NATO allies have announced ambitious plans to grow their armed forces.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Defense Spending, Russia-Ukraine War, and Armament
Political Geography:: Europe

231. Understanding Russia’s Calculus on Opportunistic Aggression in Europe

Author:: Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Jim Townsend, Kate Johnston, and Greg Weaver
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: Numerous factors are working to dissuade Russia from directly challenging NATO, but once Moscow reconstitutes its military, one scenario stands out as a plausible path to a NATO-Russia war: The United States becomes involved in a major crisis in the Indo-Pacific. Russian President Vladimir Putin could view this as his last best chance to undermine the alliance, judging that Washington would have neither the political interest nor the resources to rapidly come to Europe’s defense, and that absent the U.S. capabilities being redeployed to the Indo-Pacific, the European members of NATO would be vulnerable.1 In the event of a crisis in the Indo-Pacific, the United States would likely fulfill some of its requirements by drawing on capabilities already in Europe and/or those in the United States that NATO expects would be used to reinforce Europe in the event of a conflict there, generating gaps in European defense. Even a lower-intensity crisis in the Indo-Pacific, like a blockade, would likely create gaps in Europe because the United States would probably view such a crisis as the opening phase of a larger conflict and would flow military assets to reinforce the region. The military requirements in the Indo-Pacific—and therefore the gaps in Europe’s defenses—would grow as any crisis worsened. The resources required to defend Taiwan are different to the largely land-based forces that are required to bolster European security, but there are significant areas of overlap where resources are in short supply, giving rise to challenges in the following areas: space-based assets and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms; strategic enablers; maritime support; ground-based air and missile defense; long-range precision fires; drones; and combat aircraft. There are also likely to be shortages in the pool of ready forces (in Europe), sustainment units, munitions stockpiles, specialist personnel, and special operations forces. These gaps in European security would erode the credibility of NATO’s deterrence and defense, leading Moscow to perceive a golden opportunity to accomplish its aims: to divide the United States and Europe, expand its sphere of influence, and relitigate the post–Cold War security order in Europe. The greater the gaps and vulnerabilities in NATO’s conventional forces that Russia perceives, the greater the risk Moscow is likely to accept in pressing its ambitions. Moscow is likely to assume that, with hostilities in Asia, the imperative for the United States and Europe would be to de-escalate, creating a context that the Kremlin would view as exceptionally permissive.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Armed Forces, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Indo-Pacific

232. Russian negotiating style. When does the West learn?

Author:: Carsten Søndergaard
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Russia’s negotiating style is rooted in power, patience and prestige, not compromise. Russia has consistently approached diplomacy as an extension of conflict rather than a means to resolve it. Understanding this mindset is vital if Europe and its allies are to deter, rather than accommodate, Moscow. This paper identifies seven enduring traits of Russian statecraft that continue to shape its diplomacy: 1. GREAT-POWER BY RIGHT – the belief that no major international question should be settled without Russia’s participation; 2. BORDERS AND BOUNDLESSNESS – an ambiguous relationship with borders that keeps neighbours uncertain; 3. INSTRUMENTALISED IDENTITY – the political use of identity, particularly “Russians abroad”, as a tool of influence; 4. RUSSIA SHOULD BE FEARED – projecting power through intimidation, with respect earned by fear rather than trust; 5. HONOUR AND INFLUENCE – insisting on parity with the United States and China, favouring bilateralism and equating dignity with strength; 6. ZERO-SUM LOGIC – viewing global politics as a contest in which one side’s gain is another’s loss; 7. EXPERIENCE AND DECEPTION – combining skilled diplomacy with maskirovka and hybrid warfare to mislead the West. For the West, effective engagement requires realism, deterrence and unity, not misplaced faith in goodwill negotiations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Negotiation, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

233. From TikTok to Terrorism? The Online Radicalization of European Lone Attackers since October 7, 2023

Author:: Nicolas Stockhammer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel marked a pivotal moment not only in Middle East security policy but also in the global Islamist and particularly jihadi propaganda landscape. This article examines how the ensuing digital “victimhood-revenge” narrative rapidly spread across platforms like TikTok, fueling a new wave of radicalization among adolescents in Europe. Drawing on six European case studies from 2023 to 2025—including foiled and executed attacks in Vienna, Solingen, and Zurich—this article identifies a recurring radicalization pattern involving emotionally vulnerable, digitally native individuals exposed to algorithm-driven Islamist content in social media, but predominantly on TikTok. The analysis conceptualizes this process through the lens of a “Virtual Caliphate Complex” and explores TikTok’s role as a low-threshold gateway into extremist ecosystems. By analyzing cross-platform mobilization dynamics, aesthetic framing, and the hybridization of lone-actor terrorism with online support networks, the article underscores the urgency of adapting P/CVE strategies to algorithmic environments. The conclusion suggests possible policy emphasis on content moderation, digital literacy, and platform accountability—particularly in the context of the European Union’s Digital Services Act legislation. The article contends that today’s prevailing Islamist radicalization pattern reflects not only ideological motivations but also youth-online-culture dynamics and algorithmic influence.
Topic:: Radicalization, Innovation, Recruitment, TikTok, October 7, and Lone Wolf Attacks
Political Geography:: Europe

234. Generation Jihad: The Profile and Modus Operandi of Minors Involved in Recent Islamist Terror Plots in Europe

Author:: Erik Hacker
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Europe has largely avoided major jihadi attacks in recent years, though experts and officials from the United Nations as well as the Five Eyes intelligence alliance have repeatedly warned of the heightened terror threat increasingly linked to a new generation of teenagers, who radicalize primarily online. Yet, little is known about the specific profiles and modi operandi of these underage suspects. As this trend shows no signs of waning, a clearer understanding of these minors’ specific characteristics is vital in order to adapt counterterrorism responses and sustain the current high rate of foiled plots. This article offers an in-depth account of the background and attack planning behaviors of 44 minors who planned to carry out jihadi terror attacks in Europe since 2022 but were arrested before they could act. By comparing their characteristics to adult terror suspects, it highlights the distinctive traits of this new generation of Islamist extremists and explores the strategic implications for counterterrorism efforts moving forward.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamism, and Youth
Political Geography:: Europe

235. Moving Targets: Implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War for Drone Terrorism

Author:: David Hambling
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Small and commercially available drones in the hands of violent extremists pose a rapidly growing terrorist threat. This article examines that threat in the light of the invasion of Ukraine. Consumer drones such as DJI Mavics, FPV racing drones, and Shahed-style one-way attack drones have become potent weapons. Their affordability, accessibility, and adaptability enable precision strikes, bypass traditional defenses, and democratize air power for state and non-state actors alike. This article details how these drones have been used in Ukraine—from grenade-dropping quadcopters to long-range strategic attacks—and highlights their potential adoption by violent extremist organizations (VEOs). The second part of the article assesses the implications for global counterterrorism, emphasizing the psychological impact, scalability, and low operational risk of drone attacks. It concludes by outlining countermeasures, including electronic jamming, physical barriers, kinetic interception, and the growing role of drone-on-drone defense, urging a comprehensive and adaptive response to this multifaceted and accelerating threat.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Counter-terrorism, Drones, Innovation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine

236. Towards Green Industrial Partnerships

Author:: Hannah Lentschig, Giulia Cretti, and Louise Van Schaik
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The European Commission’s Clean Industrial Deal (CID) seeks to accelerate industrial decarbonization, reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports and reinforce economic resilience through stronger technological innovation. This Clingendael Policy Brief explores how partnerships with other countries can support the CID’s objectives. Cooperation for added value around energy and critical raw materials can help to position the EU as a strategic and reliable partner, fostering economic resilience both at home and abroad. Operationalizing this requires clear communication about the EU’s geostrategic interests and a more explicit focus on partner countries’ key concerns, particularly regarding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Risk-mitigating instruments such as public financial guarantees and CBAM revenues can be more strategically deployed to ramp up private investments under the Global Gateway. This can help to incentivize technology exchange and capacity development in partner countries while bolstering European companies’ competitiveness abroad. Finally, coordination between the EU level and Member States is essential to mainstream green industrial objectives across EU foreign policy, trade and finance.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Renewable Energy, European Commission, Energy, and Green Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

237. A Burden or a Boost? Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence in European Agriculture

Author:: Marjoleine Hennis
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The next Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) cycle is being discussed amid geopolitical and global trade tensions, and a shift in focus (by the European Commission) to the competitiveness of the European Union (EU). The discussions are taking place in parallel with the introduction of certain sustainability measures of the Green Deal. These measures, such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), are often presented as contrasting with competitiveness, or as an additional administrative burden. Instead, this policy brief highlights the potential benefits of the sustainability measures for European agriculture. It argues that, if applied astutely, the measures could boost the EU’s competitiveness and food security, whilst easing regulatory burdens, and reinforcing the position of farmers in agri-food chains.
Topic:: Agriculture, European Union, Food Security, Sustainability, and Green Deal
Political Geography:: Europe

238. Securitization Theory Insights on the Formation of an EU Army

Author:: Iva Zutic
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the narrative securitized by Eurofederalists in support of establishing an EU army. The main objective is to identify and categorize the assertions employed by securitizing actors in their speech acts, examined through the framework of securitization theory. To assess the impact of this securitized narrative, the study evaluates its reception among the EU public before and after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The research reveals that securitizing actors cluster their assertions around four advantages: strategic, political, societal, and economic. Furthermore, the findings indicate that by framing these advantages within their narrative, securitizing actors have successfully influenced public opinion in the EU to favor the establishment of an EU army.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Public Opinion, European Union, Economy, Army, Securitization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

239. From Glasnost to Crackdown: Ann Cooper on Covering the Fall of the USSR and What Came After

Author:: Masha Udensiva-Brenner and Ann Cooper
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Harriman Magazine editor Masha Udensiva-Brenner interviews editor-in-chief Ann Cooper about her experiences covering the end of the Soviet Union for NPR; how we might reframe that period; and some of the articles in the 2025 issue of Harriman Magazine.
Topic:: History, Journalism, Soviet Union, National Public Radio (NPR), and Glasnost
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, and Soviet Union

240. The Showman: An Interview With President Zelensky’s Wartime Biographer

Author:: Simon Shuster
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Time Magazine Senior Correspondent Simon Shuster discusses his book on Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and the first year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine; the current state of affairs; and some of the historical context that brought us here.
Topic:: Journalism, Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia-Ukraine War, and History
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

241. The Weaponization of Energy Resources: Fossil Fuels as Instruments of Geopolitical Leverage in the EU–Russia Context

Author:: Nataliia Khoma and Maiia Nikolaieva
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper examines how energy functions as a strategic instrument of geopolitical coercion, focusing on Russia’s prolonged weaponization of natural gas and the European Union’s evolving response. Building on Soviet-era infrastructure, Moscow has employed price increases, supply cuts, and control of pipelines to pressure states. At the same time, the EU has countered with sanctions, diversification of suppliers, and accelerated investment in renewable energy. For more than fifty years, energy has served as leverage that blurs the boundary between economics and security, imposing heavy economic and political costs on both producers and consumers. Interdependence amplifies these vulnerabilities, allowing energy to operate as a “weapon” on both supply and demand sides. Although the EU plans to end Russian gas imports by 2027, Moscow’s continuing circumvention efforts demonstrate that energy remains a critical tool of power and national security worldwide.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Fossil Fuels, Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Weaponization
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

242. Protecting Fundamental Freedoms and Promoting Gender Equality: The Case for Binding Quotas on Macedonian Corporate Boards

Author:: Emilija Gjorgjioska, Margarita Janeska, Tatjana Spaseska, and Aneta Risteska Jankuloska
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes gender balance on the boards of companies listed on the Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE). Despite formal equality, statistics reveal persistent vertical segregation in top management. A comparative assessment places North Macedonia favorably within the Western Balkans and the European Union; however, further progress is still needed. Adopting a legal gender quota, as outlined in Directive (EU) 2022/238, would help close the gap, fulfill obligations under CEDAW, and reinforce the country’s commitment to the United Nations’ fifth Sustainable Development Goal on gender equality, ensuring that fundamental freedoms, gender balance, and equal remuneration are upheld in practice rather than merely acknowledged.
Topic:: European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, Corporations, Gender Equality, and Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE)
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and North Macedonia

243. Accessing Foreign Policy Information in the Digital Age: Evidence from Greece

Author:: Péter Kacziba
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The digitalization of governance and media has increased the visibility and accessibility of foreign policy, reshaping how citizens engage with international affairs. However, limited research exists on how digital platforms influence the way foreign policy information is accessed and evaluated in specific national contexts. This study addresses this gap by examining the case of Greece. Drawing on a nationwide online survey conducted in February 2024 (N = 800), this analysis investigates citizens’ source preferences, perceptions of credibility, and engagement patterns across socio-demographic groups. The findings reveal that digital platforms have emerged as the dominant sources of foreign policy information. Nevertheless, traditional dynamics of political polarization, selective trust, and fragmented media consumption remain prevalent. These results underscore the constraints of digitalization in expanding democratic participation and highlight the need for foreign policy research and practice to pay greater attention to public opinion and societal dynamics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Democracy, Media, Polarization, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

244. Freedom and Personal Autonomy as the Foundation of Private International Law and the Cornerstone of Individual Rights in the AI Era

Author:: Antoni Abat i Ninet
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: An examination of private international law manuals and relevant legislation demonstrates that the autonomy of the will constitutes a fundamental epistemological principle underpinning the field. However, this freedom is neither absolute nor unbounded. The binding force of pacta sunt servanda, the limitations imposed by public law, the operation of mandatory rules (lois de police), the demands of public policy (ordre public), and the necessity of protecting weaker parties all constrain its exercise. In contemporary private international law, the principle has evolved into a pervasive and dynamic norm, deeply embedded in legal practice while continuously adapting to new challenges. In the emerging era of artificial intelligence, the autonomy of the will must be reaffirmed as a cornerstone of individual rights, ensuring the preservation of personal freedom amidst technological transformations.
Topic:: International Law, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Autonomy, Freedom, Immanuel Kant, and Individual Rights
Political Geography:: Europe

245. Artificial Intelligence and Politics: Legal Dilemmas and Risks to Democracy

Author:: Daniele Battista and Gabriele Uva
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The rapid progress of AI has raised questions about its political, ethical, and legal impact, particularly regarding institutional transparency and citizens’ privacy. This study examined the implications of AI in European politics, evaluating whether it enhances democracy or fosters algorithmic manipulations that contravene ethical and legal norms. Adopting a deductive approach, it examined narratives, scenarios, and expectations regarding the use of AI in decision-making and governance mechanisms. The aim was to offer a critical perspective on the dynamics at play, highlighting the risks, opportunities, and legal protections available. The study contributed to the academic debate on the ethical and regulatory implications of AI in governance, providing insights for future regulation and public policy.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Democracy, Ethics, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, Data, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Europe

246. Constitutionalizing the Environment in 21st Century Europe: Innovations for Greener Constitutions

Author:: Goce Kocevski
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes and systematizes innovations in the constitutional entrenchment of environmental protection provisions, moving beyond the mere recognition of the right to a healthy environment or the affirmation of general policy declarations. Using the comparative constitutional method, it examines relevant provisions in the constitutions of France, Montenegro, Hungary, Austria, and Slovenia. The findings reveal significant diversity in the scope and manner of environmental constitutionalization, contrasting with the similarities observed among constitutions adopted in the 1990s. Identified approaches include the integration of environmental law principles, the constitutional recognition of procedural environmental rights, and the establishment of institutions dedicated to environmental protection. These constitutional innovations demonstrate significant potential for broader adoption, thereby strengthening frameworks for environmental protection and enhancing the safeguarding of human rights and liberties.
Topic:: Environment, Human Rights, Constitution, Innovation, and Amendment
Political Geography:: Europe

247. Libertarian Perspectives on Social Change: The Overton Window and the Role of the State in Macedonian Society

Author:: Nikola Lj. Ilievski
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes public opinion on the state’s role in Macedonian society. The Ideological Carreau and the Overton Window of Political Possibilities frameworks visually represent the findings. The primary objective was to develop a reliable tool for measuring public attitudes and monitoring potential shifts in political culture. To gather the necessary data, an online political quiz was created. The responses were analyzed using arithmetic means to determine public opinion’s central tendencies and position them within the Ideological Carreau. The analysis revealed that public attitudes toward the state’s role predominantly align with the conceptual model of the liberal democratic state and the ideological orientation of modern liberalism.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Ideology, State, Liberalism, Libertarianism, Social Change, and Overton Window
Political Geography:: Europe and North Macedonia

248. Criminal Dimensions of Forced Sterilization of Romani Women: A Focus on Gender-Based Violence and Deprivation of Liberty

Author:: Olga Koshevaliska and Roze Surlovska Ristevska
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper examines the forced sterilization of Romani women as a serious violation of human rights and a fundamental denial of personal liberty. Drawing on legal, sociological, and feminist frameworks, the analysis demonstrates how this practice reflects intersecting forms of racial and gender-based discrimination within healthcare systems and state institutions. Romani women in vulnerable socio-economic circumstances have been systematically denied autonomy over their reproductive choices, highlighting broader patterns of structural exclusion. The findings emphasize the need to address forced sterilization not only as a criminal offense but also as a form of institutionalized violence that requires urgent legal, policy, and institutional reforms to protect personal liberty and advance reproductive justice.
Topic:: Women, Gender Based Violence, Roma, Discrimination, Systemic Racism, Liberty, Antigypsyism, and Forced Sterilization
Political Geography:: Europe

249. The Portrayal of Religious Freedom in Media Discourse: Evidence from Kosovo

Author:: Ilmije Kuqi and Lulzim Esati
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study examines how religious freedom is portrayed in Kosovo’s media and how citizens perceive related tolerance and hate speech. A quantitative survey (N = 150) was conducted from March to April 2025 across six regions using simple random sampling. While 90% of respondents affirmed that religious freedom exists in Kosovo, only 35% rated media coverage as very good or excellent. Sixty percent believed Muslims receive the most media attention, and half noted that ethical standards in religious reporting are only partially upheld. The findings reveal a gap between the legal guarantee of religious freedom and its representation in the media, with negative narratives and online hate speech undermining democratic values and social cohesion in post-conflict Kosovo.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Media, Hate Speech, Social Cohesion, Society, Freedom of Religion, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

250. LNG Projects Are a Bad Deal for Germans and Americans

Author:: Milena Pressentin, Josefin Schmidt, and Julian Schwartzkopff
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Subsidizing fossil gas, especially long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas (LNG), undermines Germany’s energy independence, national security, public health, and climate goals, while also raising energy prices and pollution for Americans. On the other hand, accelerating the deployment of affordable and cleaner technologies across sectors could lower costs and pollution.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Trade, Donald Trump, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS