Political Geography: Europe - CIAO Search Results

401. Gender and Education Gaps in Employment: New Evidence for the EU

Author:: Aleksandr Arsenev, Meryem Gökten, Philipp Heimberger, Andreas Lichtenberger, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:: This paper analyses (age-adjusted) employment rates by gender and education. We find that male female gender gaps and high-low education gaps in employment vary markedly across European Union (EU) countries and regions, with larger gaps existing in Eastern and Southern Europe than in Nordic and Continental EU countries. We estimate that closing existing education gaps in employment between high and lower education levels would raise the employment rate in the EU for the year 2022 by 10.6 percentage points, whereas closing the gender gaps between men and women would lead to an increase of 2.5 percentage points. At the same time, closing both the gender and education gaps would raise the EU employment rate from 76% to 89% of the population. Furthermore, we provide new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of employment gaps, finding that gender gaps are procyclical. While female employment rates tend to be more resilient than male employment rates during economic downturns, male employment rates tend to grow at a faster pace than female employment rates during upswings. In contrast, education gaps are more countercyclical, as employment risks are more strongly concentrated where education is low.
Topic:: Education, Labor Issues, European Union, Employment, Inequality, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, Gender, and Income Distribution
Political Geography:: Europe

402. Foreign Lobbying in the U.S.

Author:: Ben Freeman and Nick Cleveland-Stout
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: This brief takes a deep dive into a newly available tranche of data tracking foreign influence in the U.S. political process. The new data was released in early 2024 following reforms to the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), which made access to all foreign registrants’ political activities and campaign contributions publicly available. The brief unearths a complex web of foreign influence in the United States — with countries like Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Azerbaijan reaping the benefits of massive political influence campaigns. Influence operations today often follow a standard playbook: outside countries use firms based in Washington to lobby active members of Congress in pursuit of various aims — such as receiving U.S. weapons, currying American favor in regional conflicts, and more general reputation laundering. In 2022 and 2023, FARA registrants reported $14.3 million in political contributions and nearly 130,000 political activities. This relationship between lobbyists representing foreign countries and U.S. policymakers in itself is concerning, raising questions of whether politicians are really prioritizing the interests of their constituents, and of all Americans. To make matters worse, authoritarian regimes represent a majority of the most active countries — including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which placed first and fourth, respectively, among the countries most engaged in political activities under FARA from 2022–23. Greater FARA transparency is certainly a welcome development, but still more can be done to help Americans understand the who, what, and how of the foreign lobbying industry. For one, FARA registrants should be required to report a unique identifier for each office contacted, making it easier to determine lobbyists’ contacts. Greater language specificity in the descriptions of political activities is also needed. In addition, Congress could pass legislation that would introduce civil fines on the underreporting of political activities, although such a step should be accompanied by protections against the abuse of the FARA process.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, Conflict, and Military-Industrial Complex
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and United Arab Emirates

403. "Inventing Eastern Europe" Thirty Years Later: A Conversation with Larry Wolff and Guests

Author:: Malgorzata Mazurek, Larry Wolff, Suzanne Marchand, Emile Greble, and Jan Kubik
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: When Larry Wolff’s book Inventing Eastern Europe was published in 1994, it gave the world a new set of tools for understanding the half of Europe that had recently emerged from behind the Iron Curtain. Most notably, Wolff’s book showed how the conceptual division of the European continent into two distinct civilizations, East and West, although reinforced by the Realpolitik of the Cold War, actually originated in the discourse of philosophes and travelers in the 18th century. Inventing Eastern Europe was revelatory in the mid-1990s, and it has been required reading for serious students of Eastern European history and culture ever since. Please join the East Central European Center and the Harriman Institute for a conversation with Larry Wolff, Suzanne Marchand, Emily Greble and Jan Kubik, moderated by Malgorzata Mazurek, about the genesis, initial impact and continued relevance of this seminal work on the thirtieth anniversary of its publication.
Topic:: Cold War, History, and Philosophy
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

404. A Global History of Hungary: Concept, Implementation, Reflection

Author:: Ferenc Laczó
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: The recently released volumes of Magyarország globális története (A Global History of Hungary) are the joint product of 159 scholars from a host of disciplines. Together, they explore the history of an East Central European country in a truly global perspective for the first time. The two volumes cover developments from the formation of the Pannonian Plain and the early spread of human settlement and agriculture, through the emergence of world religions and the era of European colonialism and imperialism, all the way to key issues in the multipolar and contested globalization of our days. This narrative arc already suggests why such a global history of Hungary may be urgently needed today: to reinterpret in a substantial and nuanced manner, for our age of manifold interconnections, the place and various roles of Hungary and Hungarians in the history of the world. More specifically, the 203 chapters included in A Global History of Hungary capitalize on four key insights. First, East Central Europe has tended to be a semi-peripheral area in the global scheme of things, and it has thus been much closer to the global average than some of the parts of the world on which much of recent global historiography has focused. East Central European countries have also developed numerous and still underexplored intercontinental connections outside the Western core that should be of special interest in our age of global multipolarity. At the same time, it can be assumed that this diverse area, as a rather peripheral part of Europe in a formerly largely Eurocentric world, has played the role of a “secondary colonialist” for significant parts of modern history – a topic that needs to be researched in detail and critically scrutinized. Moreover, the predominant transnational orientation of this suburb of Europe has shifted repeatedly and sometimes dramatically, creating a complex pattern of legacies – or “continuities in discontinuity” – that can only be properly analysed through a transnational history on the longue durée. In this presentation, co-editor Ferenc Laczó will reflect on the agenda to embed Hungarian history comprehensively in global frameworks. He will discuss the specific ways in which this agenda has been implemented, not least to explain how the contributing authors have taken up and adapted a recent Western European approach to historiography, what challenges this has entailed, and what opportunities such a process of adaptation to East Central Europe offers.
Topic:: History and Historiography
Political Geography:: Europe and Hungary

405. Fashionable Politics: How Italian Leaders Transform into Successful Brands in Contemporary Communication

Author:: Daniele Battista
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Political communication is inherently intertwined with social dynamics and cannot be considered a separate field of study. Symbolic elements, slogans, and the leadership of political figures have permeated human history, influencing and often determining political action. This study has analyzed the phenomenon of personalization as compelling evidence in the field of contemporary political communication. The analysis is based on a study of Italian cases, aiming to provide an in-depth insight into the strategies adopted by political parties to personalize their leaders’ image and engage voters. In particular, the focus has primarily been on party symbols incorporating the leader’s name. The research was conducted to identify party personalization mechanisms and their impact on public opinion. The result highlighted the role of political communication in asserting the individual as a brand at the expense of the party organization, with significant implications for democracy and political participation.
Topic:: Politics, Communications, Identity, Marketing, and Personal Brand
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

406. International Register of Damage: The Guarantee of Recovering Justice in Ukraine

Author:: Olena Agapova
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study addresses the urgent need to establish a comprehensive compensation mechanism for damages incurred by Ukraine due to Russian aggression. The research analyzes the legal, procedural, and practical aspects of the Enlarged Partial Agreement on the Register of Damage instituted by the Council of Europe. Methodologically, the study employs existing literature, legal documentation, and various scientific methods to understand the dynamics of compensation mechanisms. The study identifies unresolved issues through a comprehensive literature review and proposes solutions. The study underscores the pivotal role of the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine in meticulously documenting damages and proposes specific categories of compensation claims. Overall, the research highlights the significance of international cooperation and legal frameworks in restoring justice and providing accountability for those affected by the conflict.
Topic:: Law, European Union, Accountability, Russia-Ukraine War, Public Administration, and Council of Europe
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

407. Empowering Communities in Kosovo: The Vital Role of Local Government in Advancing Education and Curbing Deviant Behavior

Author:: Islam Hasani and Ferdi Kamberi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Local communities play an essential role in developing and organizing their lives for joint betterment. Local self-government, through local democratic mechanisms, involves the community as part of the public policies, showing the sign of the development of the local democracy. This research aims to analyze the communication and collaboration between the local government and local communities in Kosovo, focusing on their role in the development of education and the reduction of deviant behavior, intending to create a better social environment for the community. The research methodology employed for this paper is as follows: library research, qualitative research, and the analysis of the laws in power related to the topic. There will be field research working with two focus groups belonging to the municipality of Prishtina, considering their ethnic component. General results show that communities are still in the development and organization phase, whereas their participation in the process of public policies is still under the average level. Social audits can be mechanisms for development, organizing the community, and involvement in local government policies.
Topic:: Development, Education, Democracy, Public Policy, Behavior, Empowerment, Communities, and Local Self-Government
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

408. Examining the Gap Between EU Fundamental Values in Theory and Practice: A Case Study of Macedonia’s Journey Toward EU Accession

Author:: Larisa Vasileska
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The objective of this paper is to assess the gap between the EU’s commitment to its values and the fairness of its accession process, in particular the Macedonian journey to the EU, which is not only contradictory to the EU’s core values but also contradictory to the principle of equal rights and self-determination. For this purpose, the methodology consists of conducting qualitative analysis based on two bilateral agreements and analyzing the evolution of EU requirements and their implications. The paper argues that rather than enforcing the Copenhagen criteria and making the country’s pre-accession progress contingent on the strengthening of the rule of law, the EU has expended enormous effort in what was essentially a political bilateral dispute between states, with the resolution of the dispute to be replaced as a pre-accession criterion. The paper concludes that the EU should return to its fundamental values and prioritize merit-based criteria in the enlargement process, not a politically based decision.
Topic:: International Law, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Rule of Law, Values, Disputes, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Europe and Macedonia

409. The Challenges of Normalizing Relations Between Belgrade and Pristina: Implications of the “Agreement on the Path to Normalization”

Author:: Mihajlo Vucic and Dragan Djukanovic
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The article analyzes the process of normalizing relations between Belgrade and Pristina after adopting the Agreement on the Path to Normalization. The analytical framework of neorealism was used to explain that the normalization process was accelerated due to the war crisis in Eastern Europe. The international legal aspects of the agreement were scrutinized, based on the method of content analysis and comparative studies, to argue that the agreement is a legally binding treaty between two sides that respect each other’s international legal personality. The authors concluded that the European Union and the United States attempted to create new momentum in the decade-long and rather unsuccessful process by adopting the Agreement and the Annex on implementation. Thus, these documents were put in the context of relations between Belgrade and Pristina and broader European and regional levels of complex relations. In addition, the analysis concluded that the documents serve as new impulses in normalization as a continuous legal formalization of relations between the two sides based on international legal rules.
Topic:: International Law, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Normalization
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

410. Dissecting the Political Landscape of War-Torn Ukraine: Between Internal Challenges and External Threats

Author:: Aram Terzyan
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper explores the political landscape of war-torn Ukraine, focusing on the country’s core domestic problems. The war in Ukraine has led to a significant deterioration of Ukraine’s political landscape. While victory on the battlefield is Ukraine’s utmost priority, escalating internal problems pose additional challenges. With Ukraine having obtained EU candidate status, these problems have moved to a new level on the EU’s membership agenda. The most urgent of these is endemic corruption, which has gained fresh momentum during the war and has put foreign aid at risk. As the costs of the war grow, international pressure on the Ukrainian authorities to show better results increases. Accountability and transparency should become the guiding principles of the reconstruction and recovery processes to maintain Western support and ensure effective postwar reconstruction.
Topic:: Corruption, Reconstruction, Minorities, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and De-Oligarchization
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

411. Control of Irregular Migration and Suppression of People Smuggling on the Western Balkan Route

Author:: Bojan Jankovic, Sasa Markovic, and Aleksandar Ivanov
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The subject of this paper is irregular migration and modern models of preventing the smuggling of migrants on the part of the Western Balkan route through the Republic of Serbia. The goal is to show how the new strategic approach of the Serbian police in this area can give excellent results, that the application of modern methods of policing and technical means are aimed at preventing the smuggling of migrants, i.e., the illegal movement and transport of migrants across the state border and state territory to go to countries of the European Union. Based on the conducted research, the authors have drawn certain conclusions: 1) effectiveness, efficiency, and economy in the area of suppression of irregular migration can be achieved by applying an adequate criminal strategy, 2) the new strategic approach led to the discovery and arrest of a large number of people smugglers and the discovery of illegal firearms, 3) the use of modern technical means, coordinated, joint work of different police units and management from a single center by a strategic level manager directly in charge of combating irregular migration and human smuggling in a particular area (territory) which is estimated to be a hotspot of criminal activity, is a prerequisite for success.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Borders, Police, Smuggling, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:: Europe and Balkans

412. Skilled Migration Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:: Rossen Kostadinov Koroutchev
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This article analyses the role of skilled migration before and during the Covid-19 pandemic, emphasizing the health sector. Using official statistics, it investigates the evolution of the migrant skilled professionals from this sector over the last decade and the difficulties they face in different European countries. A special analysis is devoted to recognizing and validating the professional credentials of migrant healthcare workers and their crucial importance nowadays. Some comparisons have been made between the health sector in the UK and Spain by pointing out the importance of foreign doctors and nurses in mitigating the pandemic’s effect even during periods of lockdown and border closures. The conclusion of this research confirms the necessity of a collective and sustainable response to address the global shortage of health professional regulations and bureaucratic difficulties related to work permissions and authorizations in the post-Covid-19 recovery era.
Topic:: COVID-19, Skilled Migration, Professionals, Health Sector, and Credentials
Political Geography:: Europe

413. The “Revival” of PiS: The Transformation of Campaign Strategies from the Kaczynski Twins to Andrzej Duda

Author:: Melissa Stolfi
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The paper analyzes the campaign strategies of the PiS political party during the Polish elections from 2009 to 2020. It examines how the gradual modernization of communication strategies and the adoption of a less aggressive narrative contributed to the party’s revival after a decline in support caused by the political crisis of 2007 and the death of leader Lech Kaczynski in 2010. The research aims to identify the changes in campaigning that contributed to regaining electoral success since the 2015 national elections. The analysis is based on audio-visual materials produced by PiS for the elections during both the “crisis” period (2009-2013) and the “revival” period (2014-2020), allowing for a comparative analysis of the main changes between these two periods. Through content analysis of these materials, the study investigates the topics, genres, formats, national and European dimensions, personalization strategies, and use of negative advertising.
Topic:: Communications, Elections, Domestic Politics, Propaganda, Political Parties, and Advertising
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

414. Potential Effects and Concerns of the Agreement Between Italy and Albania on Managing Migratory Flows

Author:: Rrezart Bushati and Emanuela Furramani
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The recent Memorandum of Understanding concluded between Italy and Albania for cooperation in the migration field has caused strong criticism. This agreement has raised many doubts regarding its compliance with the Albanian Constitution, specifically concerning the procedure required for concluding international agreements relating to the concession of the territory to foreign powers and the protection of human rights. Recently, the Albanian Constitutional Court decided that the Protocol does not violate the Constitution. This study aims to highlight the critical issues related to fundamental rights protection, particularly regarding the issue of which state will be responsible for human rights protection according to the ECHR. Another profile to consider is the determination of Albania as a safe place, considering that the agreement aims to transfer people rescued in international waters by Italian military vessels into Albanian territory.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, Treaties and Agreements, and Search and Rescue
Political Geography:: Europe, Albania, and Italy

415. Mild Deglobalization: Foreign Investment Screening and Cross-Border Investment

Author:: Vera Z. Eichenauer and Feicheng Wang
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Openness to foreign investments is associated with risks. To mitigate these risks, many high-income countries have strengthened the control of foreign investments over the last decade in an increasing number of sectors considered critical. Investment screening distorts the market for cross-border investments in controlled sectors, which might lead to unintended economic effects. This is the first cross-country panel study to examine the economic effects of investment screening mechanisms. We combine deal-level data on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for the period 2007–2022 with information on sectoral investment screening. Using a staggered triple difference design, we estimate a reduction of 11.7 to 16.0 percent in the number of M&A in a newly screened sector. The effects are driven by minority acquisitions and deals involving a foreign government or state-owned enterprises or US firms as investors. There is no reduction in the number of deals within the EU/EFTA, most of which are not subject to screening. The findings call policymakers’ attention to weighing the benefits of national security and the economic costs of introducing investment screening.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Foreign Direct Investment, Investment, Geoeconomics, Global Capital Allocation, and Deglobalization
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

416. Paying Off Populism: How Regional Policies Affect Voting Behavior

Author:: Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper shows that regional policies can decrease populist support. We focus on the “development objective” (Objective-1) of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), meant to support lagging-behind regions. For causal inference, we exploit three sources of quasi-exogenous variation in a Regression-Discontinuity-Design (RDD), a Difference-in- Differences framework (DiD), and with matching techniques. Using NUTS3-level panel data on the outcomes of elections to the EU parliament, observed over the period 1999-2019, we consistently find that Objective-1 transfers reduces the vote share of right-fringe parties by about 2.5 pp. Left-fringe party support is not affected. Complementary analyses of individual-level survey data from the Eurobarometer show that the European Regional Policy increases trust in democratic institutions and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:: Political Economy, European Union, Populism, Regional Integration, Currency, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

417. Paying Off Populism: EU-Regionalpolitik verringert Unterstützung populistischer Parteien

Author:: Robert Gold and Jakob Lehr
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: How to break the populist wave? With the elections to the European Parliament ahead, and the Presidential Elections in the US looming, this question bothers policymakers in many Western democracies. Our study shows that regional policies effectively decrease populist support. Specifically, EU Regional Policy investing into the development of lagging-behind regions decreases the vote share obtained by right-fringe populist parties by 15–20 percent. Moreover, regional policy investments increase trust in democratic institutions, and decreases discontent with the EU.
Topic:: Political Economy, European Union, Populism, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe

418. Foul Play? On the Scale and Scope of Industrial Subsidies in China

Author:: Frank Bickenbach, Dirk Dohse, Rolf Langhammer, and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: China makes extensive use of subsidies in order to take a leading role on the global markets in the green technology sectors of electric vehicles, wind turbines and railway rolling stock. According to DiPippo et al. (2022) and recent OECD studies, the industrial subsidies in China are at least three to four times or even up to nine times higher than in the major EU and OECD countries. According to a very conservative estimate, industrial subsidies in China amounted to around EUR 221 billion or 1.73% of Chinese GDP in 2019. According to recent data of 2022, direct government subsidies for some of the dominant Chinese manufacturers of green technology products had also increased significantly - the electric car manufacturer BYD alone received EUR 2.1 billion. The authors point out that Chinese companies are benefiting from further support measures, including subsidized inputs, preferential access to critical raw materials, forced technology transfers, the strategic use of public procurement and the preferential treatment of domestic firms in administrative procedures. The authors recommend the EU to use its anti-subsidy proceeding against BEV imports from China to enter into negotiations with the Chinese government and persuade it to abolish public support measures that are particularly harmful to the EU.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Business, Renewable Energy, Industry, Subsidies, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: China and Europe

419. Build Carbon Removal Reserve to Secure Future of EU Emissions Trading

Author:: Wilfried Rickels, Mathias Fridahl, Roland Rothenstein, and Felix Schenuit
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • A carbon central bank (CCB) that translates carbon removals into allowances would transform the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) from a fiat allowance to a gold standard system, ensuring unchanged net emissions on the path to net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. • Meeting such expectations would require a CCB with a clear commitment to a net-zero GHG target, but also with the capacity to manage the market on the path to that target. • This requires a strong institutional framework, which could be achieved by integrating the CCB into the European Central Bank (ECB), building on its reputation and capacity. • Given the long lead time to set up such an institution, the European Commission should already take the first steps to fulfil the other requirement, namely building up a large carbon removal certificate (CRC) reserve, which would provide the CCB with the credibility to stabilize the market in the future. • To fill the CRC reserve, the EU should emulate the US approach by immediately initiating resultbased carbon removal procurement as a first key step of a sequential approach to integrated carbon removal into climate policy. • This could be achieved by developing a centralized procurement program, supporting existing procurement programs, such as Sweden’s or Denmark’s, and incentivizing additional EU member states to initiate procurement. • An important prerequisite for this is the ability to bank CRCs that are not yet eligible for compliance with near-term EU climate targets and use them in later crediting periods.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero, and Carbon Central Bank
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

420. EU-China Trade Relations: Where Do We Stand, Where Should We Go?

Author:: Alexander Sandkamp
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, China’s share in European trade has fallen continuously. Nevertheless, the country remains the EU’s largest source of imports (20.5 percent in 2023) and its third largest export destination (8.7 percent). • This apparent dominance of China is put into perspective when incorporating intra-EU trade. For example, Germany – Europe’s largest economy – sent 6.1 percent of its ex-ports to China, but 55 percent to EU members states. For imports, the Chinese and Euro-pean shares are 11.5 percent and 52.7 percent, respectively. • Decoupling the EU from China (i.e. almost eliminating bilateral trade) would permanent-ly reduce European real income by 0.8 percent in the long-run. In terms of gross domes-tic product in 2023, the EU would forego 136 billion EUR of value added every year. Short-term effects are likely to be stronger. • China dominates global production of important products such as laptops and mobile phones as well as raw materials including Germanium and Gallium that are critical for the green energy transition. A trade disruption might thus both delay the energy transi-tion and increase its costs. • To reduce specific dependencies, the EU should intensify its efforts to diversify procure-ment by increasing the attractiveness of alternative suppliers. Finding the courage to move forward in the negotiation of free trade agreements with potential strategic part-ners such as Australia and the Mercosur countries would strengthen the EU’s geopolitical position and increase prosperity among partners.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Geoeconomics, and Decoupling
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Germany

421. Remedying a Legal Black Hole: The Future of Human Rights Jurisdiction in the Mediterranean Sea

Author:: Alison Beuscher
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: The coastal States of the Mediterranean Sea tend toward a steady decrease in their search and rescue capacities. When a migrant boat sends out a distress signal, many ships in its vicinity either ignore it, merely observe the ship, or even move away from it. Rather than allowing people in distress onto rescue boats, the coastal States control the activity from a distance via, for example, mere distress calls. This lack of action occurs despite their legal obligation to protect under the law of the sea. Due to a maritime legal black hole, those stranded are effectively rendered rightless. This article examines whether a new jurisdictional approach may serve as a remedy and explores an intermediate design. It will assess this jurisdictional approach based on progressive Inter-American Court of Human Rights and Human Rights Committee cases while bearing in mind potential advantages and drawbacks.
Topic:: Human Rights, Migration, Law of the Sea, and Jurisdiction
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

422. A Right to Come Within State Jurisdiction Under Non-Refoulement? Interpreting Article 1 of the European Convention on Human Rights in Good Faith Within the Context of Extraterritorial Migration Control

Author:: Laura Goller
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: Externalizing borders for the purpose of shifting and avoiding responsibilities under human rights law is not a new phenomenon in the context of migration control. In the Mediterranean, European States have increasingly sought new measures of extraterritorial migration control to avoid being held responsible under cornerstones of international refugee law such as non-refoulement. In the precedent Hirsi Jamaa and Others v. Italy, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) established that the exercise of effective control over persons on the high seas amounts to the exercise of jurisdiction within the meaning of Art. 1 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). As a result, European States began to find new ways of controlling their borders. The focus on physically controlled ‘push-backs’ shifted to administratively controlled ‘pull-backs’. Cooperation with third States by equipping and training their coast guards has become a way for European States to avoid any direct contact with migrants, thereby avoiding triggering jurisdiction as defined by the current case law of the ECtHR. This paper focuses, first, on how ECtHR jurisprudence responds to new forms of extraterritorial migration control and, second, on how this concept of jurisdiction relates to the obligation of States to fulfill their international obligations in good faith. How can the object and purpose of an obligation be undermined if that obligation does not apply in the first place? While the realization of Hannah Arendt’s concept of ‘the right to have rights’ seems to depend in practice on the geographical location of the individual, this paper addresses the question of whether there might be a right to come within the jurisdiction of a State, in the sense of gaining access to a legal system, applying a good faith reading to non-refoulement.
Topic:: International Law, Migration, Borders, Jurisdiction, Non-refoulement, European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), and European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
Political Geography:: Europe

423. Containing the Containment: Using Art. 16 ASR to Overcome Accountability Gaps in Delegated Migration Control

Author:: Almut Möller
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: When the European Court of Human Rights found Italy responsible for push-backs on the high seas in Hirsi Jamaa based on Italy’s effective control over the individuals, it simultaneously solidified the concept of jurisdiction as a prerequisite of human rights obligations and provided States with deeper knowledge on how to avoid responsibility. Since then, instead of pushing the migrants back themselves, destination States increasingly delegate the task of migration control to third States. Under the guise of “capacity building”, they fund, train, and equip third States to exercise containment measures and carry out pull-backs. By way of bilateral agreements, destination States remain in control of the migration flow while avoiding any direct contact with the migrants that would trigger their human rights obligations. One example for this is the Italian-Libyan cooperation under the 2017 Memorandum of Understanding, which was renewed in 2020. Migrants intercepted by Libya are systematically detained in prisons under horrific conditions, which is in clear violation of their human rights. The present article explores ways to allocate responsibility on destination States for their involvement in those human rights violations notwithstanding the lack of jurisdiction. In particular, the article deals with the question whether the general international law of State responsibility is applicable alongside international human rights law. Responsibility for complicity, as lined out in Art. 16 of the Articles on State Responsibility for Internationally Wrongful Acts, is compared to the concept of due diligence obligations in international human rights law, dismissing the claim that the latter poses lex specialis. Subsequently, Art. 16 ASR’s substantive requirements are applied to the case study in order to test the provision’s capability to overcome the accountability gap.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Migration, Accountability, and European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR)
Political Geography:: Europe, Libya, and Italy

424. Nigerien Law 2015-36: How a New Narrative in the Fight Against Smugglers Affects the Right to Leave a Country

Author:: Sarah Isabel Pfeiffer
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: In 2015, the Republic of the Niger adopted an anti-migrant smuggling law (Law 2015-36) with direct involvement of the European Union (EU). Since then, concerns have been raised that this law constitutes a de facto travel ban for anyone moving northwards from Niger. Rather than addressing the involvement of the EU, this article will focus on the direct obligations of Niger, including those set by regional human rights agreements, as the country where the so-called cooperative migration control takes place. People on the move towards Libya will be a special focus as the most affected by the Nigerien law. First, the Nigerien law and its provisions will be described, in order to then assess whether the law and its application infringe the human right to leave any country including one’s own. Drawing from the findings of non-governmental organizations and the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Migrants, this article argues that Law 2015- 36 renders it impossible for non-Nigerien nationals to leave the country without risking their life and safety. Thus, Law 2015-36 infringes the right to leave. The third part explores possible justifications for the law with a focus on the interests of people on the move, the interests of bordering States, and national interests. It finds that Law 2015-36 is disproportionate and, in fact, impairs the essence of the right to leave, resulting in an unjustified interference. The concluding fourth part contains recommendations for possible amendments to the law.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Migration, European Union, Smuggling, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Nigeria

425. EU-NATO relations in a new threat environment: Significant complementarity but a lack of strategic cooperation

Author:: Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The relationship between the EU and NATO has traditionally been characterised by a degree of ambiguity and competition but also by attempts at coordination and cooperation. In the context of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU and NATO have played crucial and mutually complementary roles, taking advantage of their respective strengths. However, there are also many areas in which their efforts overlap and closer cooperation would be necessary. Thus far, only small steps in this direction have been taken. Ideally, the EU and NATO would work together to develop a more strategic outlook on issues such as developing Europe’s military capabilities, strengthening the security and defence of membership aspirants as well as managing crises beyond EU and NATO territory. Formal relations between the EU and NATO remain complicated. However, there are ways to work around the existing obstacles to EU-NATO cooperation, not least in the capitals of EU and NATO member states.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Europe

426. Nuclear arms control policies and safety in artificial intelligence: Transferable lessons or false equivalence?

Author:: Eoin Micheál McNamara
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Multiple nuclear arms control treaties have collapsed in recent years, but analogies associated with them have returned as possible inspiration to manage risks stemming from artificial intelligence (AI) advancement. Some welcome nuclear arms control analogies as an important aid to understanding strategic competition in AI, while others see them as an irrelevant distraction, weakening the focus on new frameworks to manage AI’s unique and unprecedented aspects. The focus of this debate is sometimes too narrow or overly selective when a wider examination of arms control geopolitics can identify both irrelevant and valuable parallels to assist global security governance for AI. Great power leaders frequently equate AI advancement with arms racing, reasoning that powers lagging behind will soon see their great power status weakened. This logic serves to intensify competition, risking a spiral into more unsafe AI practices. The global norm institutionalization that established nuclear taboos can also stigmatize unethical AI practices. Emphasizing reciprocal risk reduction offers pragmatic starting points for great power management of AI safety. This research is part of the Reignite Multilateralism via Technology (REMIT) project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No. 101094228.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Cybersecurity, Economic Policy, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

427. NATO as a nuclear alliance : NATO’s nuclear capability and its evolution in the international nuclear order

Author:: Tapio Juntunen, Jyri Lavikainen, Matti Pesu, and Iro Särkkä
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Finland’s entry into NATO marked admission to a nuclear alliance. The aim of this report is to provide an overview of the structure and trends of the international nuclear order, the basics of NATO’s nuclear deterrence and its implementation, and decision-making related to the alliance’s nuclear weapons policy. The study will also assess how Finland can participate in NATO’s nuclear deterrence policy if it so wishes and what effects NATO membership will have on Finland’s arms control policy. Nuclear deterrence constitutes one part of NATO’s deterrence mix, and the alliance views nuclear weapons as the supreme guarantee of its security. U.S. nuclear weapons form the backbone of NATO’s nuclear deterrence, and a small proportion of its nuclear weapons are stationed in allied countries. According to NATO’s statements, the purpose of its nuclear deterrence is to preserve peace, prevent coercion and deter military aggression. NATO has not made any major changes in its nuclear weapons policy in recent years. The key outlines of NATO’s nuclear weapons policy are decided at NATO summits. The alliance has its own senior body for discussion on nuclear weapons: the Nuclear Planning Group. Non-nuclear allies such as Finland have several opportunities to influence and participate in the alliance’s nuclear weapons policy. Importantly, as a member of NATO, Finland can continue its active arms control efforts.
Topic:: NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Alliance, Deterrence, and International Order
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

428. China as the second nuclear peer of the United States: Implications for deterrence in Europe

Author:: Jyri Lavikainen
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: China’s nuclear build-up will make it a nuclear peer adversary of the United States in the 2030s. The US will have to deter both Russia and China, as well as other regional adversaries, with forces geared to engage in one major war at a time. If two major wars occur either simultaneously or sequentially, US military capability will be put under great stress. In the event of a second war, the US may find itself in a situation of conventional military inferiority, which it might have to compensate for with greater reliance on nuclear weapons. Since the US remains the ultimate guarantor of European security, its deterrence challenges elsewhere affect European security as well. Thus, even the possibility of war in the Indo-Pacific is a European security issue. European NATO allies can help mitigate the two-peer problem by permanently taking on a greater share of the burden of Europe’s conventional defence. At the same time, the effectiveness of NATO’s nuclear capability must be enhanced. A strategic defeat for Russia in the war in Ukraine would postpone Russia’s ability to pose a military threat to Europe. Ukraine’s NATO membership would further serve to reduce the threat of another major war in Europe.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America

429. The EU and military AI governance: Forging value-based coalitions in an age of strategic competition

Author:: Katja Creutz, Ville Sinkkonen, Mahmoud Javadi, and Michal Onderco
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has increased dramatically, driving discussion on the best way to govern it. While much of the discussion has focused on AI in the civilian domain, its usage in military applications raises distinct ethical and legal questions that actors increasingly seek to address. Governance initiatives are becoming more common, even though strategic competition between major powers remains a challenge. The EU navigates this governance landscape more hesitantly than in the civilian domain with its Artificial Intelligence Act (AIA). More information is needed regarding what kind of regulation, and especially with whom the Union could pursue such avenues. This paper seeks to address these questions by presenting and analyzing results from an expert survey conducted in autumn 2023 by researchers at Erasmus University Rotterdam. It argues that the EU needs to pursue a broad range of cooperation formats to advance its values and interests in the context of military AI. Strategic multilateralism is needed, especially with like-minded states that share values with the Union.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

430. Foreign investments, de-risking and the EU’s green transition: Mining critical minerals in Finland

Author:: Elina Sinkkonen and Marco Siddi
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The EU is highly dependent on imports of critical and strategic raw materials, both at the extraction and the processing stages. Many of the key supply chains for these materials are dominated by China. In addition, the EU is also dependent on China for many green technologies, such as battery production. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act (2023) sets concrete targets for reducing dependencies in the green transition by 2030. Considering both the level of existing dependencies in critical and strategic raw materials and the fact that the Act does not provide any new funding instruments, the feasibility of reaching the set targets is questionable. The Finnish mining sector presents an interesting case that illustrates the scarcity of domestic financing. Most metal ore mines in Finland are owned by foreign companies, and similar trends apply to the refining and recycling of materials. If the EU wishes to mitigate the risks of becoming dependent on authoritarian countries, foreign investments in sectors relevant to the green transition should be subject to investment screening. For example, the Finnish Act on the Screening of Foreign Corporate Acquisitions does not cover greenfield investments such as investments in building battery factories.
Topic:: European Union, Mining, Supply Chains, Green Transition, Raw Materials, Critical Raw Materials (CRM), and De-Risking
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

431. EU support for Ukraine: The paradox of insufficient assistance

Author:: Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Since Russia started its aggression against Ukraine in 2014, EU member states have lacked the political will to firmly contest Russia’s imperialism in the shared neighbourhood. This was concretized in the rejection of Ukraine’s EU path and the failure to build Ukraine’s military capabilities before 2022. The EU’s response to Russia’s full-scale invasion has been more successful than expected considering its limited capabilities and some past failures of international security assistance. The West is, however, failing to equip Ukraine to win the war. This paradox of insufficient aid leaves Ukraine in limbo, whereby it is enabled to continue the defence effort but without adequate means to succeed. In theory, the EU backs Ukraine’s strategy of non-negotiation with Russia, but the limited military support is pushing Kyiv towards peace talks. EU capitals continue to disagree over the extent to which Russia’s imperialist policies need to be suppressed, and whether small concessions could help to end the war in Europe. Even in the scenario where Ukraine emerges from the war as a truly sovereign state, the risk of future Russian interference, combined with Ukraine’s particular vulnerabilities and the likely challenges of post-war reconstruction, cast a shadow over its immediate future.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

432. The rise of the far right in the European Union: Gaining power not through a sweeping victory, but through creeping normalisation

Author:: Nils Fabian Müller
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: In the 2024 EU elections, far-right parties are expected to win more seats in the European Parliament than ever before. At the national level, too, far-right parties are entering more and more EU governments. Despite these gains, the centre-right European People’s Party, rather than the far right, is likely to play the central role in the EU institutions in the next legislature. The EU’s consensus-based system is a safeguard against the sudden seizure of power by far-right parties. But once they have achieved a certain position, the same system makes it difficult for others to form majorities without them. The EU is therefore facing not a sweeping but a creeping gain in far-right power, as centrist political parties become more open to cooperation, and far-right positions are slowly normalised in political discourse. Paradoxically, the very mechanisms that are supposed to protect national sovereignty (such as unanimity requirements in the Council) are the ones most likely to allow far-right parties to influence EU policy, even if they represent only a minority of EU citizens.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Far Right, and European Parliament
Political Geography:: Europe

433. The EU’s accidental geopolitics: Europe’s geopolitical adaptation and its limits

Author:: Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: This Working Paper develops the idea that the EU is engaged in accidental geopolitics. There is a lack of consensus among EU institutions and members on the extent of the EU’s geopolitical role. The Union’s structures and strategic culture do not reflect a focus on geostrategy and power. Instead, the environment of strategic competition has pushed the EU to act in geopolitical ways, for example through the financing of military aid or the imposition of sanctions. The paper argues that these actions have been accidental rather than intentional. To substantiate this argument, the paper draws on an analysis of several key foreign and security policy developments during the EU’s outgoing institutional cycle (2019–2024). The analysis reveals the EU’s shortcomings in becoming an intentional geopolitical actor, and highlights the role of foreign policy agents within the Union in driving decisions. Accidental geopolitics and the reactive deployment of the EU’s international leverage underline the impact of the Union’s top jobs on its role in international politics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Europe

434. The Joint Expeditionary Force in Northern Europe: Towards a more integrated security architecture?

Author:: Antti Pihlajamaa
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The Joint Expeditionary Force – a UK-led defence cooperation format of ten European countries – has gained political momentum since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since the late 2010s, the JEF has shifted its focus towards hybrid issues, increasingly in Northern Europe. While its role in the hybrid sphere is potentially fruitful, the JEF should be wary of taking on too wide a range of tasks. The JEF’s role as a “sub-threshold” actor could complement NATO’s collective defence efforts below Article 5. Hence, the JEF should be more coherently integrated into the Northern European security architecture. Obstacles to JEF-NATO integration have now been removed, as all JEF nations are also members of the alliance. A more explicit division of labour between the JEF and NATO would help Northern European countries to handle the current security environment comprehensively. Such a security architecture, covering all dimensions of the conflict spectrum, would be particularly beneficial for Finland, which shares a long common border with Russia.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Security, Defense Cooperation, and Joint Expeditionary Force
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Finland, and Baltic States

435. EU migration policy and calls for the externalisation of asylum: Intensifying partnerships, exploring new models

Author:: Saila Heinikoski
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: After years of negotiations, the EU has adopted the Pact on Migration and Asylum, and recently concluded migration partnerships with Tunisia, Mauritania and Egypt. While the Pact addresses internal migration rules within the Union, in practice the focus seems to be shifting towards the external dimension of migration. The security situation in Europe reinforces the need to build stronger partnerships. The aim is not to push the countries from which people most often migrate to Europe into partnerships with countries that may ally themselves against Europe, for example by instrumentalising migration. Even before the European Parliament elections, EU member states and political groups started to push the idea of transferring the asylum procedure to third countries. This was notably stated in a letter sent to the Commission in May 2024, signed by 15 member states. Examples of the externalisation of asylum procedures include the outsourced Rwanda model eventually abandoned by the UK, the offshoring model being implemented in Albania by Italy, and the proposed return hub model, whereby rejected asylum-seekers would be transferred to a third country if they cannot be directly returned to their countries of origin.
Topic:: European Union, Partnerships, Refugees, Asylum, Migration Policy, and Externalization
Political Geography:: Europe

436. Russia’s wartime ideology: Radicalization, rent-seeking and securing the dictator

Author:: Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Anti-Western propaganda and the indoctrination of citizens, especially young people, have gradually intensified since the early days of Putin’s rule. However, their radicalization during the war is indicative of the regime’s need for manipulative control rather than reflective of broad support for the regime’s worldview. The most significant shift in the Kremlin’s wartime propaganda has been its codification in school education since the summer of 2022. This timing reveals more about the regime’s need to justify the war and its consequences than it does about any consistent long-term strategy. Key actors behind the ideological codification are opportunistically exploiting the current context. Meanwhile, ideological radicals face little opposition, as most citizens show limited interest in their activities. Despite the regime’s indoctrination practices, the indifference of society suggests that the conditions for a strong anti-Western consensus after Putin will be weak. Such a consensus can only emerge if the future regime, like the current one, is able to maintain satisfactory material conditions and a tolerable daily life alongside its ideological views, whatever they may be.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Democracy, Ideology, Post-Soviet Space, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

437. Helsinki Security Forum 2024 report

Author:: Mikael Mattlin, Harri Mikkola, Charly Salonius-Pasternak, Tyyne Karjalainen, and Minna Ålander
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Helsinki Security Forum 2024: Towards a Total Defence of Europe – From Apathy to Action? In its search for unity, Europe requires a comprehensive approach to security to build resilient societies. The third annual Helsinki Security Forum (HSF) will explore how comprehensive national security strategies and preparedness could benefit Europe on a broader scale. HSF is an annual event that gathers decision-makers and foreign policy experts to discuss pressing international security issues from a Northern European perspective.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Northern Europe

438. Europe’s development and peacebuilding cuts: Securing short-term interests, risking long-term security

Author:: Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Development cooperation budgets are tightening in the EU amid economic pressures and a focus on security and defence. Two broad shifts are taking place in EU and member state investments in peacebuilding and conflict prevention: a general decline in funding and decreasing attention to conflict-affected regions and countries in particular. Local and international conflict prevention and peacebuilding actors need to frame their work to align with the EU’s economic, security and geopolitical interests in order to remain relevant in an era of strategic competition. The implications of the shifts in funding will depend on how changes are implemented and under what types of strategies. A general risk is that policy decisions will be based on a short-term and largely reactive rationale at the expense of a long-term perspective on Europe’s interests.
Topic:: Security, Development, International Cooperation, European Union, Crisis Management, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Europe

439. Report of the Country Visit to Czechia of the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies

Author:: Center on International Cooperation
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: On July 23–24, 2024, a delegation from the Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University, serving as the secretariat for the Pathfinders for Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies, participated in a country visit to Prague, Czechia. The visit was initiated by an invitation from the government of the Czech Republic in their capacity as co-chair of the Pathfinders Alliance Against Inequality and Exclusion. The delegation included Mr. Fernando Marani, Program Director, Inequality and Exclusion, and Mr. Nate Edwards, Program Associate, Justice for All. The primary objectives of the visit were to identify good practices and support Czechia’s priorities related to the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16+ and explore inclusive policy making approaches to empower the voice of marginalized and vulnerable groups.
Topic:: Development, Sustainable Development Goals, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Europe and Czechia

440. Prosecuting Russia’s Crime of Aggression: A critical reflection

Author:: Sonia Boulos
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Since the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, international law has become a center piecein Ukraine’s war efforts. The Hyper response of legal and other international institutions have prompted some to call these developmentsas the “Ukraine moment”. Theterm suggeststhat the legal response to the war represents,potentially,atransformative moment for international law in its pursuit of justice. Focusing on the crime of aggression, the aim of this article is to answer the question whether the international response to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine symbolizesgenuinelya transformativeinternational law moment
Topic:: International Law, Russia-Ukraine War, Aggression, and Double Standards
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

441. La evolución de Rusia tras la Guerra en Ucrania

Author:: Albert Priego Moreno
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: En febrero de 2022 las tropas rusas entraron en el territorio de Ucrania. Desde entonces Europa en general y Ucrania en particular vive sumida en una situación de gran incertidumbre. Son muchas las previsiones que se han hecho para tratar de encontrar certezas en un mundo que tiene más dudas que certidumbres. Buena parte del futuro de Europa pasa por Ucrania y sobre todo por como acabe la guerra con Rusia. Por ello este trabajo tratará de dibujar tres escenarios del futuro de Rusia partiendo de los siguientes cinco factores: la guerra en Ucrania, la situación de Putin, la economía rusa, las sanciones y la paz social en Rusia. Se utilizará una metodología prospectiva partiendo de un análisis previo de la participación de Rusia en las guerras en las que ha tomado partido. Estos escenarios servirán para ver las consecuencias que puede tener una derrota de Rusia en el frente ucraniano, consecuencias que no solo serían para Rusia y Ucrania sino también para el resto del mundo.
Topic:: Sanctions, Economy, Vladimir Putin, Future, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

442. La ampliación de la Unión Europeatras el conflicto de Ucrania

Author:: Jordi Regi
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El conflicto en Ucrania ha supuesto un nuevo reto para la UE en tanto en cuanto, la solicitud de adhesión a la UE planteada por el presidente ucraniano Zelenski el 28 de febrero de 2022 ha tenido consecuencias directas e indirectas para el futuro de la UE. Tres días después, Georgia y Moldavia presentaron solicitudes similares. En un periodo récord de menos de cuatro meses, en el Consejo Europeo de 23 y 24 de junio de 2022, los líderes de la UE decidieron conceder a Ucrania y Moldavia el estatus de país candidato, y reconocieron la "perspectiva europea" de Georgia, un paso hacia la candidatura formal. Nunca los países de la UE habían reaccionado afirmativamente con tanta rapidez a una solicitud de adhesión a la UE, pero detrás de la rápida respuesta de la UE al adoptar un nuevo proyecto de ampliación había una lógica estrategia geopolítica, y no cabe duda de que se trataba de una decisión histórica que no podía eludir. La problemática derivada del complejo proceso de adhesión y las opciones posibles serán tratadas en este artículo.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

443. Lecciones para la PCSD tras la Guerra en Ucrania

Author:: Gracia Abad Quintanal
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La evolución de la Unión Europea, lejos de ser lineal es, indudablemente una historia de avances loables y retrocesos sonoros. Esa evolución irregular es especialmente visible en el ámbito de la seguridad y defensa. Así, si por una parte al Tratado de Ámsterdam siguieron años de grandes avances como los que se materializaron en Saint Malo, Helsinki, Colonia, Santa María de Feira y Lisboa, con posterioridad, el triple choque resultante de la Guerra en Irak, la crisis financiera primero y la pandemia de COVID 19 se traduciría en un periodo de bloqueo y oscurecimiento sustancial del panorama. Sin embargo, esa situación no dudaría para siempre porque una nueva guerra, en Ucrania, percibida como un cambio estratégico fundamental que desafía los intereses y valores de la unión iba a propiciar el despertar de los europeos generando un nuevo impulso en lo que a la seguridad y la defensa se refiere permitiendo una búsqueda más decidida de una mayor autonomía estratégica con todo lo que ésta conlleva. Ese impulso se ve favorecido, además, porque los estados miembros más orientales de la Unión Europea, tradicionalmente más reticentes en este ámbito, siendo los más afectados por la renovada amenaza rusa, pueden empezar a serlo mucho menos. En esas condiciones se reabre, incluso, el debate de la ampliación, entreabriendo la puerta a estados que, de ser capaces de cumplir con los requisitos preceptivos para la adhesión podrían en algunos casos constituir un indudable activo para la seguridad y defensa de la UE en su conjunto.
Topic:: NATO, European Union, Russia-Ukraine War, and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP)
Political Geography:: Europe

444. Conflicto en Ucrania. Cuando la estrategia híbrida no funciona

Author:: José M. Martínez Cortés
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: En 2014 las fuerzas armadas rusas invadieron, de forma exitosa, la península de Crimea sin pegar apenas un solo disparo. Supuestamente, las mismas fuerzas armadas invadieron Ucrania en febrero de 2022 con un resultado significativamente diferente. La reducida eficacia operativa demostrada por estas fuerzas armadas lleva a plantearse muchos interrogantes sobre cuáles han sido las causas de este fracaso. El presente artículo pretende entrar en dicho análisis, en lo que respecta fundamentalmente a lo realizado durante 2022, por ser ese período el de mayor interés a nuestros efectos, a la vez que profundiza en el poco difundido papel desempeñado por las fuerzas aéreas rusas.
Topic:: Russia-Ukraine War, Warfare, and Hybrid Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

445. Lecciones militares estratégicas de la Guerra de Ucrania

Author:: Yago Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La mayor guerra europea desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial es una fuente natural de lecciones para cualquier ejército. En el siguiente estudio ofrecemos una tamización de las lecciones estratégicas estrictamente militares que nos ha dejado la guerra a partir de la disección de la historia militar de la misma.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

446. Repercussions of the end of the war in Ukraine for the United Nations Security System

Author:: Carlos Espaliú Berdud
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an extraordinarily serious violation of the prohibition on the use of force that was embodied in Article 2.4 of the UN Charter after a long historical process. The fact that it was perpetrated by one of the permanent members of the Security Council implies a breach of the consensus among the Allies in World War II that gave rise to the United Nations and the system of international peacekeeping and security that it brought with it. The final outcome of the war in Ukraine may mean that the blow to the system of collective security envisaged in the Charter may be fatal, should the outcome be favourable to Russian interests, or that, despite being badly damaged, it may continue to exist, should the final outcome of the conflict be favourable to Ukrainian interests.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, International Community, UN Security Council, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Global Focus

447. The future of EU-Turkey relations: Transactional bargaining continues

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Fundamental questions about Turkey’s EU path have been brushed aside for the last ten years. With enlargement back on the agenda, the EU-Turkey relationship seems to be moving towards even more transactionalism, lacking any prospect of meaningful integration.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, Regional Politics, and Enlargement
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

448. Majority-building in the next European Parliament: The case for a more formal coalition

Author:: Andreas T. Müller
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The openness of the European People’s Party (EPP) to some far-right parties in the European Parliament has led to mistrust and conflict within the political centre. A written coalition agreement could remedy this – and even improve democracy at the EU level.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, European Parliament, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Europe

449. Defense Cooperation Agreements in northern Europe: Strengthening the United States’ global position, transatlantic relations, and regional deterrence and defense

Author:: Charly Salonius-Pasternak
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The US has concluded or updated bilateral Defense Cooperation Agreements (DCAs) with all Nordic states. These DCAs enhance regional deterrence, enable operational and tactical cooperation from day one in the event of war, and provide broader regional and global benefits.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Deterrence, Transatlantic Relations, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe, Nordic Nations, and United States of America

450. Moldova’s European course: To be continued or to be reversed?

Author:: Ryhor Nizhnikau and Arkady Moshes
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Against all expectations, the pro-European forces in Moldova failed to triumph in Sunday’s election. In particular, the results of the referendum on joining the EU revealed an antagonistic division of the nation into two halves. The parliamentary election next spring could put Moldova’s European integration on hold altogether.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Regional Integration, and Eastern Neighborhood
Political Geography:: Europe and Moldova

451. Demography in the next institutional cycle: Preparing the landing space

Author:: Maria Gargano and Emilia Pauwels
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Demographic challenges, under different narratives, mediatic and political framing, have been more and more present in the European political debate. The Report on the Future of the Single Market, the so called ‘Letta Report’, mentions demographic shifts a dozen times. Many parties in the run up to the elections for the renewal of the European Parliament in June 2024, have inserted this topic in their programmes. The Greens and the European Socialists approached demography through prioritizing the participation and wellbeing of older generations, with the latter also calling for a cohesion policy which reverses brain drain from remote regions. The European People’s Party takes a more structural approach, promising to continue the support for the current Vice President for Democracy and Demography with the suggestion of introducing a coordinating agency, while ECR Group adopts a fertility-centred view, advocating for measures to support birth rates and family values. In addition, the strategic agenda for the next five years provides to address in a comprehensive way demographic challenges and to ensure the support to a thriving longevity society. However, the borders of a landing space in which the different policy areas intertwine with the consequences of demographic change, remain very uncertain.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

452. Back to the Future: Applying Cold War Wisdom to Modern Belgian Defence

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Dust off the Cold War files that are lying under mounds of dust in the archives of our European Defence chancelleries. Bring back willing retired officers to share their knowledge of how things were done over 45 years of a solid and ultimately successful defence posture. There is bound to be a wealth of instructive and useful structures, tools, experiences and models, tested to their limit and refined to near perfection over the period of the Cold War between 1945 to the early 1990s. They can be adapted to suit the need for a rapid build-up of both defence capabilities as well as resilience. Belgium’s obligations in NATO: Cold War lessons in brigades’ formations As the new Belgian government undergoes the trials and tribulation of horse-trading to form a new cabinet, following the recent general election, it behoves all politicians to make the defence of the realm a priority, using the wealth of information contained in the experiences of the Cold War. Do the negotiating politicians need more of a prompt than the NATO summit currently held in Washington (2024), celebrating the 75th anniversary of the most successful defence alliance in history, that coincided with the start of the negotiation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Cold War, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

453. Three Key Concepts for a More Successful Migration Policy in Belgium

Author:: Pierre Verbeeren
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In this policy brief, the author proposes 3 concepts to underpin the new Belgian migration policy, taking into account the new structure of the State. Belgium needs a robust mechanism for dialogue between federal and federated entities. The Regions and Communities have the essential competences for integration. Until our societies find the key to integration, migration policies will remain painful. Finally, our policies must respond to flows of migrants, not to stocks of migrants. These policies must support trajectories rather than groups. A government agreement based on dialogue, integration and flows is more likely to meet the challenges of migration than an agreement that reinforces the federal state’s sovereign power over a stock of migrants.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Migration, European Union, Domestic Policy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

454. Thoughts on Improving EU Governance

Author:: Jim Cloos and Giles Merritt
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The EU is changing before our eyes, and we need to rethink parts of its governance. The institutional change-over in 2024 provides a good opportunity to do that. Streamlining EU governance is key to improving its efficiency and gaining credibility and popular support. We asked close to one hundred EU policy specialists with various backgrounds to answer a questionnaire on ‘Strategy and priority-setting,’ ‘Structures,’ ‘Working methods and red tape, and ‘Communication.’ Our focus is on adjustments short of treaty change. Most of our interlocutors agreed with this stance, but there were also dissenting voices. As one expert remarked: “The small reforms we are talking about here are simple, blurring the minds and creating an illusion that change in procedures can resolve fundamental governance and legitimacy deficits….” It is necessary to clarify our thinking. We do not rule out treaty change and more important institutional reforms over time. But there is no appetite presently for a major debate about treaty change with a Convention and a long negotiation process. Waiting for such a process to bring about much needed governance adjustments would be a mistake. Instead, improving governance now may well lead to more ambitious reforms once the conditions are right or the outside circumstances dictate a much more radical overhaul of the EU.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Institutions, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

455. Re-Empowering Belgian Foreign Policy

Author:: Alexander Mattelaer
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Belgium’s existing foreign policy framework was never designed to cope with the return of war and the decay of the rules-based international order. As a result, the country’s international position is rapidly deteriorating. The incoming Belgian government will face the daunting task of articulating a new foreign policy that is tailored to the demands of a new era. This Egmont Policy Brief makes the case for putting security back at the centre of Belgium’s international outlook, complementing the strong focus on the EU with strong bilateral diplomacy, and reversing the budgetary erosion of the Belgian foreign policy apparatus. By strengthening its diplomatic corps and its network abroad, the new government can help ensure the collective security and prosperity of all Belgian citizens, that is to say: the national interest.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

456. Modi III and the EU, after the Elections

Author:: Jan Luykx
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The May elections in India and the June elections for the European Parliament have resulted in leadership-continuity in Delhi and in EU-Brussels. Does this mean that Europe can expect ‘more of the same’ from the new Indian government and vice versa? Will the EU and India take the opportunity of this new start to re-engage in a more significant way than they have done during the last couple of years? Will they be able to identify common interests, and more importantly, act upon them?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Narendra Modi, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

457. The EU Joint Communication on the ClimateSecurity Nexus One Year On

Author:: Eleonora Milazzo
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: To mark one year since the adoption of the Joint Communication on ‘A New Outlook on the Climate and Security Nexus’ in June 2023, last summer the Belgian Presidency of the EU and the Egmont Institute, together with the EEAS, organised a workshop to take stock of the progress in its implementation. The conclusions reached during the workshop indicate that the Joint Communication has consolidated ‘climate and security’ as a key policy area. The broad approach of the Communication to climate change and environmental degradation, and peace, security and defence, ensures new thematic and operational connections – both at the global level and in specific local contexts. At the same time, in the next policy cycle, it is important to continue to support the operationalisation of this nexus across the whole spectrum of relevant policy areas including human security, conflict prevention, peace, and development and humanitarian action. To achieve this, it is fundamental to strengthen evidence use through existing tools, ensure necessary human and financial resources, devise localised solutions, and engage with a broad range of partners.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

458. Russia’s Potential Alliance with Hizbollah: A Strategic Challenge for the EU in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: One year on, the debate has been dominated by Israel, Hizbollah and the potential for regional war in the Middle East. An additional credible scenario has been worryingly absent: that in which Hizbollah and Russia cooperate, not necessarily to the exclusion of Iran as a third leg in a tripartite alliance. This scenario combines geography, history and geopolitics to bring Hizbollah and Russia closer together as a force to recon with. This is a possible development in the Southern Neighbourhood and the Levant that the EU needs to take seriously. Missing Russia’s potential move on Hizbollah could be an historic omission. The decapitation of Hizbollah’s chain of command that preceded the ground incursion, and Iran’s feeble reaction to the devastating assault on its Lebanese proxy, have created a new geopolitical vacuum and reality in the Eastern Mediterranean. Russia may spot an opportunity in the misfortunes of Hizbollah and move on a weakened prey. Will Russia’s direct influence return to Beirut for the first time since the 1770s when it occupied the city for a few months following the naval defeat of the Ottoman fleet at the battle of Cheshme? It is a distinct possibility, especially given Iran’s lukewarm military response, and one that the EU, and member states, must be prepared to deal with, if not pre-empt and prevent.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, and Eastern Mediterranean

459. Engaging in Fragile Settings: Acknowledging the Cost of Inaction

Author:: Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen, Céleste Ricci, and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On September 30th, 2024, the Egmont Institute, the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), and the Centre for Humanitarian Action (CHA) convened a panel of experts from the humanitarian assistance, development, and peace sectors to assess the new working environment of the incoming European Commission and discuss its implication for the EU response to fragility. The discussion occurred days after the release of mission letters to Commissioners-designate, and provided an opportunity to assess how the EU, with its new structures and priorities, could sustain engagement in fragile contexts. This paper aims to restitute some of the findings and recommendations that emerged during the exchanges, focusing on pathways and instruments for more effective structural responses to fragility during this decisive period.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, State Engagement, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Europe

460. Geopolitics and Geography: A Realigned EU Strategy for Stability in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The new EU Commission should commence its geopolitical thinking by acknowledging that geography is not kind to those who ignore her. The new European Parliament has the unique opportunity to become perhaps the first geopolitical parliament through a similar process. States, political leaders and societies ignore their geographic realities at their peril. Perceptions of location, distance and neighbourhoods can be dangerously distorted when they drift too far off from actual geographic realities. Digital technology, ease of air travel (bypassing the unpleasant geographic realities on the ground), combined with over three decades of peace in Europe, and 50 years in the Middle East, have created the distorted perceptions that somehow Israel’s and Ukraine’s neighbourhood was liberal Europe. These collective perceptions, untethered from their geographic realities, eclipsed perhaps the fact that both have neighbours with whom they have been at differing degrees of long-simmering conflicts. In reality, however, Israel and its neighbours have not succeeded at resolving the conflicts on its very borders, betraying the perception of peace. It is as if those neighbours with whom Israel has been in conflict had disappeared.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Geography
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

461. The Politics behind the EU-Rwanda Deal(s) and its Consequences

Author:: Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the 14th of October, the news emerged that the EU is in the final stages of a discussion to award €20 million to the Rwandan army for its operations in Mozambique – where it is fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Gabo Delgado province. It would be the second time in two years that the EU awards this amount under the European Peace Facility (EPF): it also did so in December 2022. At that time, the decision was met with anger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it was already documented by the UN how the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) were supporting the M23 rebellion in Eastern DRC. In the meantime, this support has become clearer, with the last report from the UN Group of Experts from June 2024 extensively documenting the RDF operations with M23 in Eastern DRC. The news of potentially another €20 million is therefore met with anger in Congolese politics and society, primarily directed at the EU. It is a question which puzzles many: why does the EU want to award €20 million to the Rwandan army, in the midst of its violations of international law in Eastern DRC? This piece will unpack this question and reflect on the consequences for the regional dynamics and the EU.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Law, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Rwanda

462. Why the BRICS Summit in Kazan should be a Wake-up Call for the EU

Author:: Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the growing influence of the BRICS in a multipolar world, as highlighted by their recent summit in Kazan, Russia, and the challenges to effective global multilateralism. Originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa, the BRICS have recently expanded to include Ethiopia, Egypt, the UAE, and Iran. All BRICS members seek to reshape global governance to provide a greater voice for the Global South and strengthen South-South cooperation. However, internal divisions persist: China, Russia, and Iran view the BRICS as a platform to counter Western influence, while India, Brazil, and South Africa pursue ‘multi-alignment’ to diversify their global partnerships. This brief argues that, given the urgency of pressing global challenges, the EU should take the Kazan Summit as a wake-up call to develop and implement a strategy for engaging the Global South in the much-needed reform of global multilateralism. This effort is essential despite the reelection of Donald Trump as US President.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, European Union, Multilateralism, BRICS, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, North Africa, and Asia-Pacific

463. From Carrots to Sticks, to Carrots Again? The EU’s Changing Sustainable Trade Agenda

Author:: Victor De Decker
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Although sustainability criteria include references to human, social and labour rights as well as broader environmental concerns, this policy brief will focus on measures related to carbon emission reduction in relation to the Paris Agreement. This policy brief consists of three parts. First, there will be an overview of how Trade and Sustainable Development (TSD) chapters have gained prominence in European Free Trade Agreements. The second part will be dedicated to the autonomous, unilateral EU initiatives the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the Corporate Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). To conclude, there will be a brief analysis of how the EU is working within a multilateral setting on the issue of climate change. In 2015, the United Nations adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, a landmark framework renowned for its far-reaching vision encompassing 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets. These goals collectively constitute the “universal policy agenda,” aiming to address global challenges and foster inclusive economic growth. Notable among these goals is the promotion of sustainable international trade, identified as a pivotal policy instrument contributing to overarching SDGs. The 2030 Agenda positions international trade as “an engine for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction” while actively contributing to the broader pursuit of sustainable development.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, European Union, Trade, Sustainability, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

464. Strengthening the Political Credibility of NATO Extended Nuclear Deterrence

Author:: Wannes Verstraete
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Due to Russian nuclear signaling during its war against Ukraine, there is renewed interest in strengthening nuclear deterrence in a Euro-Atlantic context. The changes in the agreed language in the new North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Strategic Concept, adopted on 29 June 2022 at the summit in Madrid, and the Vilnius Summit Communiqué from 11 June 2023, are examples of this interest. Subsequently, this policy brief focuses on one aspect of strengthening NATO’s extended nuclear deterrence (END), namely how can NATO adapt its nuclear policy and posture to mitigate the uncertainties related to the political credibility challenge of extended nuclear deterrence? Questions regarding the political will to use nuclear weapons by the guarantor to protect and reassure allies in an END relationship is a well-known evergreen that reappears from time to time. Therefore, the author argues that NATO should address this political credibility challenge by strengthening the role of European allies in the nuclear strategy of the Alliance.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

465. China, the West, and the Rest: Who is Enjoying the Shadow of Whom?

Author:: Jasper Roctus and Bart Dessein
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On Tuesday, July 25, 2023, Beijing announced that seasoned diplomat Wang Yi would return to his function as head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a post he had held for ten years (2013–2022). With this, he replaced his predecessor Qin Gang, a so-called ‘wolf warrior’ diplomat who was in office for only a few months. When former premier Li Keqiang (2013–2023) died of a heart attack on October 27, 2023, crowds of ordinary citizens laid chrysanthemum bouquets across the country, mourning for the more open and optimistic times that had characterized the era under Li’s patron, State President and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Hu Jintao (r. 2002–2012). Minister of Defense Li Shangfu was, after an equally short stint in office, replaced by former People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) admiral Dong Jun on December 29, 2023. In the case of Li Shangfu, who was sanctioned by the United States (US) over arms sales to Russia, his resignation was combined with a purge and crackdown on corruption within the rocket force of the PLA. Given the focus on the PLAN in Xi Jinping’s military reforms of the mid-2010s, this could be interpreted as an advantage point for the faction of China’s leader. This signal stands in contrast to the promotion of Hu Haifeng, the son of Hu Jintao, to vice minister of Civil Affairs on January 16, 2024. Keeping the much-speculated removal of Hu’s father during the 20th National Congress of the CCP of October 22, 2022 into mind, one might ask: Who enjoys whose sunlight to step out of the shadows?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Competition, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

466. Inviting Non-DAC Perspectives to the Funding Gap Discussion – The Need for a Paradigm Shift

Author:: Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen and Edouard Rodier
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The magnitude of the humanitarian funding gap raises major concerns regarding the viability of the aid system as we know it. It threatens millions of persons from having their most basic needs met, and their fundamental rights respected. In May 2023, the European Council’s Conclusion encouraged the EU and its Member States to “intensify their outreach to countries with the economic potential to assume a greater responsibility”. This paper provides initial insights into the approach of non-DAC States to the evolution of humanitarian action in the past decade, as well as into the barriers to further engagement, and the reasons for which these should be overcome. It is largely inspired by a first brainstorming session at the Egmont Institute in Brussels in January 2024, which brought together a wide range of experts and officials from European and international cooperation institutions. It was a necessary step, but not enough to fully engage with non-DAC States.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, European Union, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Europe

467. Breaking the Cycle: The Need for Better Integrated Responses in Neglected Crises

Author:: Edouard Rodier and Thierry-Mehdi Benlahsen
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The magnitude of the humanitarian funding gap soars each year, leaving an increasing number of people with no assistance. In 2023, only 35% of the $56bn global appeal was covered, and anticipated budget cuts from major humanitarian donors will likely worsen the situation. Neglected crises that do not receive enough media attention and political support struggle to attract financial assistance at scale for humanitarian, development, peace, or climate initiatives. Following up on the EU Council’s Conclusion from May 2023, which emphasised the importance of reducing humanitarian needs by strengthening the connection between humanitarian, development, and peace efforts (HDP nexus), this paper suggests examining how well the nexus is applied in overlooked and neglected areas. It proposes to take advantage of the 2024 EU election year to explore new approaches to the current model and makes concrete suggestions to support better coordinated and integrated responses.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, European Union, Crisis Management, and Donors
Political Geography:: Europe

468. Defence of Democracy: a Discussion on Democracy and the Path Ahead for a Culture of Participation

Author:: Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the occasion of the European Commission’s release of the Defence of Democracy package (DoD) on 12 December 2023, the Egmont Institute – together with the G1000 – organised a debate focused specifically on the recommendation on the participation of citizens and civil society organisations in public policy-making. As part of Egmont’s wider outreach mandate under the Belgian Presidency of the Council of the EU and building upon G1000’s longstanding expertise as an innovator in the Belgian democratic landscape and beyond, the purpose was to explore the road ahead for this recommendation, both under the Belgian Presidency , as well as beyond by adoption of the next strategic agenda by the June European Council and the consequential Commission priorities.
Topic:: Civil Society, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

469. A Safe and Sovereign Europe in a Changing Global Context

Author:: Lila Djait
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The second round of the foresight workshops and working dinners reflected on ‘A Safe and Sovereign Europe in a Changing Global Context’. In the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, the EU is undergoing a transformation in its global positioning within the multipolar world order. The perception of the EU as a strongly integrated regional entity in an era of heightened power politics necessitates a more assertive, unified stance in global affairs, as well as a reinforced coordination of the internal and external dimension of EU policies. Yet, translating this perception into a cohesive, integrated approach to global affairs has proven challenging for its Member States. Strengthening EU sovereignty becomes crucial in this altered geopolitical reality posing a paradox: Member States need to transfer some sovereignty to the EU to effectively safeguard their national sovereignty. This is particularly relevant in areas like defence and migration, where national approaches fall short.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

470. China, Sovereign Internationalism, and Silent Pragmatism

Author:: Bart Dessein
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Until the early 1990s, transnational institutions of which the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (SU) were the respective epicenters were formed. Sovereign nation states transferred increasing amounts of decision-making power to these institutions. Post-Second World War internationalization, globalization, and interdependence thus created the bipolar world order of the Cold War era. An important effect of the demise of the SU and the disappearance of the Soviet-led institutions has been that the currently existing institutes of global governance are part and parcel of the liberal democratic world order. The growing economic and geopolitical clout of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has given this country the possibility to reposition itself vis-à-vis this liberal world order. This repositioning has, in its turn, also impacted the foreign policies of the European Union (EU) and its member states. All this makes it worthwhile to reassess the observation of Henry Kissinger who, looking back at the 1950s, stated that “from the outset, Mao [Zedong] had no intention to accept an international system in the design of which China had no voice” worthwhile.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Sovereignty, European Union, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

471. India and The EU in 2024: Where to Next?

Author:: Jan Luykx
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In this multi-election-year both the Indian Government and the European Parliament will soon face their respective voters. Relations between the EU and India, two powerful actors on the world stage, will hardly be a theme of much importance in these elections. With the present geopolitical turmoil in the world as background, the question arises whether India and the EU should enhance their strategic cooperation to a more significant level. Russia’s war on Ukraine is posing a real threat to peace and security for the rest of Europe and for the Eurasian continent. With China, Russia’s partner against ‘the West’, extending its influence in many parts of the world, while the rest of the world is waiting, often with apprehension, the outcome of the US elections, insecurity and uncertainty have become dominant feelings in many capitals. In this context, should the EU-political level not take note of the potential benefits of closer relations with a more ambitious India?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, India, and Asia-Pacific

472. PESCO: The Last Chance

Author:: Sven Biscop and Beatriz Cózar Murillo
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: To the outside observer, Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) equals the long list of projects rather than the 20 binding commitments that were hailed as a game-changer when PESCO was launched in 2017. At first sight, these 68 projects do not seem to work towards a single objective. Is the end of PESCO clear even to the initiated? It is not, in fact, and that remains the greatest obstacle to success. A (second) strategic review of PESCO is underway, but putting PESCO on the right track requires a fundamental overhaul.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO)
Political Geography:: Europe

473. Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a Wider EU

Author:: Lila Djait
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations, with the support of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and in collaboration with the Representation of the European Commission in Belgium, has organised a series of three foresight workshops and three working dinners. Each session was dedicated to a key strategic challenge, providing a vital platform for dialogue and expert insight sharing among decision-makers from European Union (EU) institutions, the Belgian administration, and civil society. Far from being just a theoretical exchange, the discussions were a targeted effort to further develop strategic long-term thinking, with a vision extending over the next 5 to 10 years. The third round of foresight workshop and working dinner reflected on ‘Promoting European Democracy and Solidarity in a wider EU’. In recent years, the European Union has faced a pivotal juncture in its history, grappling with internal and external pressures that test its foundational principles of democracy, rule of law, and solidarity. The discourse surrounding the enlargement of the EU, adherence to the rule of law, fiscal stewardship, and the need for a cohesive strategy to confront emerging geopolitical challenges underscores the imperative for a strategic re-evaluation.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Economy, Solidarity, Regional Integration, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe

474. EU Elections: National Democracy at Its Cornerstone?

Author:: Ward Den Dooven
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the eve of the European elections, those who keep a keen eye already know that a big turnaround of the European hemicycle is to be expected, with more than 50% being newly elected. In a recent article, the secondary place occupied by the European elections was highlighted; in Belgium they can even be said to only rank as tertiary due to its collision with national and regional elections on the same day. Although up to 8 member states will see both national and European elections in 2024, this very much gives a unique context to the EU elections in Belgium. Its conclusions however were not new: although the federal government presented itself as radically pro-European, currently holding the Council of the EU’s rotating Presidency, in Belgium as well as abroad, the European election is inherently still very much national in nature: the limited space that is left for it between the other campaigns becomes confused through both themes and politicians being presented at other levels than they (currently) sit.
Topic:: Economics, Elections, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

475. Fortifying Europe’s Semiconductor Ecosystem

Author:: Victor De Decker and Patrick Grady
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The chip manufacturing process, though intricate, is divided into three stages: design, production, and final assembly, testing, and packaging. Over the years, companies have started to specialise in a single aspect of one of these steps, making the global chip supply chain a complex web of interdependencies and a high degree of geographic concentration. Despite significant contributions to niches within this supply chain, Europe has historically lagged behind leading regions like the US and Asia in semiconductor production. This enduring gap underscores the need for strategic initiatives like the European Chips Act to bolster Europe’s position in the global semiconductor industry.
Topic:: Manufacturing, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe

476. Climate Justice and Human Mobility: Bridging EU Commitments and Policies

Author:: Alicia Scodanibbio
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The complex interplay between human mobility and climate change has emerged as a pressing global concern, with profound implications for social, economic, and environmental stability. This policy brief examines the European Union’s response to the climate-migration nexus, tracing its historical evolution and current challenges. It highlights the need for a human rights-centred approach to policymaking, emphasising the importance of addressing the structural inequalities and power imbalances inherent in climate-induced migration. By integrating climate justice principles, the EU can pave the way for a more inclusive and sustainable approach to the challenges posed by climate change and human mobility.
Topic:: European Union, Institutions, Mobility, and Climate Justice
Political Geography:: Europe

477. Figures on the Billiard Table: EU-China Dynamics in the Wake of the 2024 European Elections

Author:: Bart Dessein and Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: While still a powerhouse in its own right, Europe’s relative influence on the world stage has been diminishing over the last few decades. Data, for example, highlight a significant shift in global trade patterns away from the old continent. According to a recent Brookings’ calculation, South-South trade had by 2009, i.e., around the time of the global financial crisis, increased from 10.9 per cent to 25.0 per cent worldwide. South-South trade thus surpassed North-North trade for the first time in world history. Today, 35.0 per cent of global trade is accounted for by South-South merchandise trade, and just 25.0 per cent of global trade is North-North trade. One important factor in this is a surging China-Africa trade. With China’s bilateral trade with Africa rising from 2.7 billion dollar in 1990 to 209 billion dollar in 2022, China has now become Africa’s single largest trading partner.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, Trade, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

478. Looking towards the North: Belgium’s Role in the Arctic

Author:: Karen van Loon
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Arctic region has re-emerged as an area of geostrategic importance and is attracting increasing attention from Belgium. Accelerating climate change has altered living conditions in the region. The prospect of greater commercial activity and rapid technological advances, combined with growing interest from non-Arctic states, means that the region is increasingly connected to, and an integral part of, the rest of the world. As this process unfolds, the Arctic could impact the global balance of power and the conditions of rivalry and competition between the great powers. While this may occur peacefully, the possibility of sudden, rapid changes and unpredictable shocks are no guarantee for stability. The Arctic is warming nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet. Climate change is transforming the region and creating significant challenges in the areas of security and defence, access and navigation, energy, infrastructure, cooperation, and governance. As a result, states in the region and elsewhere are turning their attention to the Arctic. This has important implications for the region’s security and stability.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Belgium, and Arctic

479. China and Geopolitics as Ontology

Author:: Bart Dessein
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Human beings are storytellers; stories form the cultural framework that gives sense to their behavior and existence. Nations, likewise, “are guided to act in certain ways, and not others, on the basis of the projections, expectations, and memories derived from […] available social, public, and cultural narratives”. Denying a political culture the right to own its story is tantamount to denying that political culture, and the human beings who belong to it, their very right to existence. Territorial integrity and unity After its defeat against European powers in the Opium Wars (1839–1842, 1856–1860), the Manchu government of the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911) was forced into signing the ‘unequal treaties’ (bu pingdeng tiaoyue). This put both the political leadership of the Manchus and the value and effectiveness of the traditional Confucian political ideology to the question. From this, the aspiration developed to create a Han Chinese nation state that would be built on Western political, social, and economic concepts. When the Republic of China (Zhonghua minguo) decided to join World War I in 1917 (in practice, the Chinese participation to World War I consisted of a contingent of some 140,000 laborers – the so-called ‘Chinese Labor Corps’ – who were active in the logistics of the war in Belgium and France), this was partly because of the conviction that this would enable China to position itself as a modern nation state among equals. However, after the war, the 1919 Versailles Treaty stipulated that the territorial possessions Germany had acquired through the ‘unequal treaties’ would not be returned to China, but had to be transferred to Japan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, History, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia-Pacific

480. Demographic Jigsaw: Puzzling Out a Resilient EU

Author:: Maria Gargano
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In December 2019, for the first time, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen assigned a portfolio containing demography as a policy area to Vice-President Dubravka Suica. As the predictions for the European Union are currently looking at a continent whose population median age is rising increasingly fast, the mission letter tasked the Vice-President to lead the response to the challenges presented by the demographic shift. The modus operandi indicated was to be supporting all the groups concerned – especially the children, the old and those living in rural areas. However, this portfolio’s objectives were not supported by an EU-specific competence to act on demography, nor a dedicated budget or service in the Commission. Also at Member States level, this matter remains scattered around different national ministries dealing with health, territorial planning, regional, interior, among others. Nonetheless, the different areas and groups of the population impacted by demographic changes have presented in the past four years multiple entry-points for the European Commission to promote initiatives such as: the care strategy, the child guarantee and lastly the demography toolbox.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, Resilience, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

481. Exploring the Potential of Minilateralism for the Europe-Mediterranean Partnership

Author:: Roee Kibrik
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The Mediterranean and Europe, as interconnected regions sharing geographical spaces and proximity, severe challenges, common interests and intertwined goals, present a compelling opportunity to explore minilateralism as a framework for fostering cooperation and developing resilience. This research examines the potential of minilateralism to contribute to the Europe-Mediterranean partnership, highlighting the rationale, objectives, potential areas of focus, and expected outcomes of promoting minilateral frameworks in this context. Two minilateral frameworks will be examined: Israel-Greece-Cyprus and Israel-Morocco-European Union (EU). Based on this examination, the research will discuss particular insights regarding these specific configurations, and general insights regarding characters, opportunities and challenges of minilateralism in the region as a way to foster the Europe-Mediterranean partnership.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Resilience, and Minilateralism
Political Geography:: Europe, Israel, Greece, Morocco, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

482. Europe as a Geopolitical Actor: Reforming the EU’s Narrative in North Africa

Author:: Zine Labidine Ghebouli
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: This paper will examine the gap between the promises and self-perception of the EU and its member states in North Africa, and the realities of implemented policies. It is true that the founding principle of the EU, i.e., to promote peace and prosperity, has never been more pivotal in policy frameworks. However, Europe on the level of both the EU and its member states is confronting complex post-COVID dynamics such as major life changes, further weakening of vulnerable economies, and deeper sociopolitical fractures. Added to this dangerous mix of challenges, the invasion of Ukraine is not only a violation of the latter’s territorial integrity and sovereignty but is also a symptom of an overall weakened security order both in Europe and abroad (De Clerck-Sachsse, 2022). At a time of multiple crises, it is imperative to reassess Europe’s partnerships in North Africa to develop a new narrative that is based on realistic advantages and limitations.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Reform, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and North Africa

483. Türkiye-EU Relations and the European Political Community in the Aftermath of Russian Invasion: Is the Transactional Turn Here to Stay?

Author:: Başak Alpan
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: Bilateral relations between Türkiye and the European Union (EU) acquired an EU conditionality dimension with the 1999 Helsinki decision, granting the country the EU candidacy status. Nevertheless, especially since the March 2016 EU-Turkey Statement, also known as Türkiye-EU Refugee Deal, what we see is a thorough shift in Türkiye-EU relations from a conditionality perspective to transactionalism, coupled with several domestic and international developments. In the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the significance of geopolitics and the heightened relevance of realpolitik also contributed to a renewed focus on strategic and pragmatic issues, relegating normative concerns to the background within Türkiye-EU relations. All in all, the shift from a conditionality perspective to a security-based logic within the framework of Türkiye-EU relations was mainly determined and characterised by the so-called “transactional turn”. Within this very transactionalist paradigm, both the EU and Türkiye want to pursue their short-term interests at the expense of a long-term principled engagement for some time. The launch of the European Political Community (EPC) on 6 October 2022 with 44 European heads of state and government (including all 27 EU member states as well as Türkiye) also contributed to this transactional tide, which aimed to “emphasise European geopolitical cooperation in light of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine; to remedy enlargement fatigue by providing an additional forum for exchange between EU candidates and member states; as well as create a forum for exchange with non-EU security actors” (Tcherneva, 2023). The EPC’s rather flexible structure and focus on mini-lateralism, which could provide greater freedom for leaders to focus on their immediate concerns, also raises eyebrows about whether the EPC would be attentive enough (and even have the mandate) to safeguard human rights, democracy, and the rule of law (Jurkovic, 2023). In light of these debates, the aims of this paper are twofold. First, it aims to explore how recent transactional initiatives between Türkiye and the EU in general and the EPC initiative in particular have unfolded and have been perceived by the Turkish diplomats and foreign policy experts. This endeavour to understand the Turkish perceptions of Türkiye-EU relations mainly focusing on recent transactionalism between the parties will be explored with a particular focus on three thematic layers, namely the foreign policy, migration and energy through semi-structured interviews with Turkish diplomats and foreign policy experts. The main rationale behind picking up these thematic layers is to identify, analyse and describe better the complex nature of Türkiye-EU relations with a particular focus on these policy fields (namely foreign policy, migration and energy), which recently witnessed the highest intensity of interactions between two parties. Second, the paper discusses the significance of the EPC within this very transactional turn and aims to understand whether the EPC is another repercussion of the increasing transactionalism. The final aim of the paper will be to understand whether the EU foreign policy, on the one hand, and the bilateral Türkiye-EU relations, on the other, would evolve in a completely transactional and security-based manner leaving no room for normativity amidst the current global uncertainties and challenges, as well as bringing together policy recommendations for the future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

484. Securing European Interests from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf: Rethinking EU Strategic Autonomy at Sea

Author:: Jean-Loup Samaan
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The discussion about the implications of an objective like strategic autonomy has primarily circled around the question, could the Europeans defend themselves against a Russian offensive without US support? (Barrie et al., 2019; Meijer & Brooks, 2021). This scenario is a critical one, especially considering the long-term implications of the Russia-Ukraine war. Nevertheless, it presents a narrow view of European security interests shaped only by challenges from its eastern flank. As a result, the debate tends to put an emphasis on the need to invest in European ground and air capabilities for a Cold War-like scenario of military operations on the continent. This paper does not discount the demands of the Russian challenge on Europe’s military posture, but it offers a different perspective by looking at an under-researched topic: the concurrent need to secure European interests in the maritime domain vis-à-vis threats originating from the area going from the Mediterranean to the Strait of Hormuz.
Topic:: Defense Policy, European Union, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

485. The Migration Agreements in Euro-Mediterranean Relations for a Geopolitical Europe

Author:: Ezgi Irgil
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The discussion about the implications of an objective like strategic autonomy has primarily circled the question, could the Europeans defend themselves against a Russian offensive without US support? (Barrie et al., 2019; Meijer & Brooks, 2021). This scenario is a critical one, especially considering the long-term implications of the Russia-Ukraine war. Nevertheless, it presents a narrow view of European security interests shaped only by challenges from its eastern flank. As a result, the debate tends to emphasize the need to invest in European ground and air capabilities for a Cold War-like scenario of military operations on the continent. This paper does not discount the demands of the Russian challenge on Europe’s military posture, but it offers a different perspective by looking at an under-researched topic: the concurrent need to secure European interests in the maritime domain vis-à-vis threats originating from the area going from the Mediterranean to the Strait of Hormuz.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Geopolitics, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

486. Infrastructures, energy and digitalisation: pillars for the sustainable development of transport in the Western Mediterranean

Author:: Mark Furness, Jordi Selfa, Sassi Hammami, Pier Paolo Raimondi, and Michel Noussan
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: With the Russian aggression on Ukraine and the war in Gaza being prolonged over time the Mediterranean region at large is in total turmoil. The Policy Study entitled “Infrastructures, energy and digitalisation, pillars for the sustainable development of transport in the Western Mediterranean” aims at contributing with shared reflections and formulation of policy proposals to the challenges and strategies that the region faces in the field of promoting sustainable development in the transport sector. To this end, the Policy Study delves into this topic from these three cross-cutting dimensions in the Western Mediterranean: infrastructures, energy and environment, and digitalisation. The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and the Centre for Transportation Studies for the Western Mediterranean (CETMO) have taken on this stimulating task by continuing for a third year the preparation of a Policy Study that involves various authors who are experts in the field, while also unveiling some recommendations of public policy addressed to the Presidency of the Group of Transport Ministers for the Western Mediterranean (GTMO 5+5). Indeed, this publication released as a Policy Study comes within the framework of the Med Think 5+5 network of Western Mediterranean think tanks, a multidisciplinary platform of exchange associated with the 5+5 Dialogue, which brings together policymakers, practitioners and academics from the Western Mediterranean area. Considering transport and logistics as one of the most relevant sectors to foster socio-economic development and regional integration in the Western Mediterranean, the Med Think 5+5 network has been committed to promoting debate and knowledge-sharing on the issue, building upon support and expertise of the CETMO as Technical Secretariat of the Group of Transport Ministers for the Western Mediterranean (GTMO 5+5). As a matter of fact, the Med Think 5+5 convened seminars (2018, 2021) dedicated to the analysis of trends in the Western Mediterranean transport and logistics sectors, organised back-to-back with the GTMO 5+5. In this context, this Policy Study, which is part of the work programme of GTMO 5+5 under the Maltese presidency, aims at giving response to the challenges posed by climate change in the region and how the transport sector can counter it and adapt to it through digitalisation, the transformation and connection of transport with infrastructures and energy.
Topic:: Infrastructure, European Union, Transportation, Energy, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: China, Europe, North Africa, and Mediterranean

487. Towards Inclusive Mediterranean Economies: Advancing Women’s Economic Empowerment in the Region

Author:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: In this first publication of the MedWE programme, the IEMed and the Union for the Mediterranean aim to contribute to applied research on the crucial area of gender equality and women’s empowerment. In the contemporary Mediterranean landscape, women face many obstacles that hinder their complete economic and social advancement. This publication is the result of the conference organised in cooperation with LECE in October 2023 in Barcelona. During this conference, the MedWE program brought together experts, policymakers, and entrepreneurs to explore strategies for overcoming barriers and promoting women’s economic empowerment in the Mediterranean region. Through a series of panel discussions, key challenges, opportunities in the areas of education and workforce participation, entrepreneurship, access to finance, legal and regulatory reform, and gender equality in the work environment were examined. Various stakeholders shared expertise and effective practices to foster women’s economic empowerment across different sectors and levels within the Euro-Mediterranean region. This policy study, combined with the work of the Union for the Mediterranean, intends to establish a new line of work which addresses gender as a central element for advancing towards a more inclusive Mediterranean. Through recommendations that will serve as a valuable resource for policymakers, business leaders, activists, and scholars committed to forging a fairer and more just future for all inhabitants of the Mediterranean, the paper seeks to foster greater gender equality and social inclusion in the region. By identifying key challenges and proposing strategies, it contributes to promote women’s economic empowerment across the Mediterranean.
Topic:: Women, Equality, Inclusion, Empowerment, and Gender
Political Geography:: Europe, North Africa, and Mediterranean

488. Renewable Energy and Electricity Interconnection Megaprojects in North Africa: Prospects for Euro-North Africa Cooperation

Author:: Michaël Tanchum, Hussein Suleiman, Alexander P. Martin, Tristano Sainati, and Jose Rodrigo Juarez Cornelio
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: This Joint Policy Study delves into North Africa’s renewable energy landscape, examining the potential and challenges of megaprojects in the region. With a specific focus on renewable energy production and exports, it explores the intricacies of megaprojects in Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia, assessing their successes, hurdles, and future potential. North Africa, especially the Sahara Desert, has vast potential for renewable energy production due to its exceptionally high solar irradiation levels, positioning it as an ideal site for solar energy projects. Economically and geopolitically, there is a strong rationale for Euro-North African collaboration to enhance North Africa’s ability to generate and export renewable energy in a way that benefits both regions. However, despite this significant potential, North African countries have faced numerous geopolitical, economic, societal and infrastructural obstacles in fully capitalising on these resources.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Solar Power
Political Geography:: Europe and North Africa

489. Hitler and the German Coal Industrialists: Passing the Keys to A Kingdom

Author:: Karsten Heinz Schönbach
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Ever since the publication of Henry Turner’s German Big Business and the Rise of Hitler, most historians in both Germany and the United States have dismissed the idea that support from German major industry played a key role in bringing Hitler to power. This consensus is wrong, as I have shown in a series of works that began with my doctoral dissertation at the Free University of Berlin and now extends to more than ten different works, including two books. These works rely extensively on archival resources that were either inaccessible or only selectively open to earlier researchers. This paper analyzes in detail one of the most crucial episodes in Hitler’s rise to power – one that previous historians, particularly Turner, have profoundly misjudged thanks in part at least to the shortcomings in the documentary sources available to them. This is the history of the political relations between Hitler, the NSDAP leadership, and the German “coal industrialists” in the period from 1926 to 1933 and the key role these firms played in supporting and financing the eventual Nazi triumph.
Topic:: History, Business, Coal, Industry, and Adolf Hitler
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

490. No silver bullet: Aid is not a shortcut to victory for Ukraine

Author:: Michael DiMino
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Delayed or insufficient Western aid is often blamed for Ukraine’s lack of success on the battlefield. The truth is more complicated. There is no aid “silver bullet” for what ails Ukraine’s war effort. More aid alone is unlikely to make a decisive difference in the outcome of the war, especially if Ukraine’s structural disadvantages and strategic deficiencies remain unaddressed. More aid is unlikely to fundamentally change the conflict because Ukraine lacks the manpower necessary to use it to generate enough new combat power to retake lost territory. Moreover, the West does not currently possess the industrial capacity needed to fulsomely sustain an indefinite Ukrainian war effort. Russian adaptability and battlefield innovation have successfully blunted the effectiveness of several Western weapon systems. And Ukrainian doctrine and tactics remain suboptimal even in the third year of the war, meaning Kyiv has failed to employ the aid it does receive with maximal effectiveness. Neither Washington nor Kyiv has articulated a clear theory of victory for Ukraine. Western aid was always a stopgap to buy Ukraine time, not a regime-change project to bring about the dissolution of the Russian state. Instead of continuing to placate maximalist fantasies of total victory, the U.S. should advocate for a shift to a defensive strategy and openness to a negotiated settlement that ends the war, such that a sovereign and independent Ukrainian state can be preserved in the face of fighting to collapse.
Topic:: Weapons, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America

491. A new NATO agenda: Less U.S., less dependency

Author:: Benjamin Friedman
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The United States should aggressively reduce its force presence in Europe. This would be consistent with NATO’s original balancing purpose and U.S. expectations then that garrisoning Europe was a temporary expedient, not a permanent tool of U.S. dominance. The Russian threat, despite being energized by NATO expansion, is insufficient to demand the current defense effort devoted to it in Europe, whether it’s Americans or Europeans making that effort. The results of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine underline this happy point: Russia has proven weaker than conventional wisdom held, and the advantages of defense evident in the war bode well for the territorial status quo NATO defends in Europe. A U.S. drawdown in Europe is unlikely to spark a European defense renaissance, but even so, the balance of power in Europe will remain intact, and the United States will be better off with the freed-up resources and reduced risks.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, Dependency, Balance of Power, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

492. Grand strategy: Alliances

Author:: Christopher McCallion
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Alliances are usually temporary arrangements among states to counter—or “balance” against—a specific common threat. The United States’ Cold War alliances, by contrast, have become seemingly permanent. States tend to balance power when they face a major threat. Bandwagoning, by contrast, is a particularly poor option for states with the capability to put up a fight. When threatened, states tend to join forces in alliances rather than surrender their national survival to the whims of a more powerful aggressor. Alliances, however, entail costs and risks. These include the dangers of being drawn into war through entanglement and entrapment, the deleterious effect on deterrence by allies that neglect their defense by “free-riding,” and the moral hazard produced by enabling allies to act like “reckless drivers.” Over time, the United States has shifted from a deep skepticism of “entangling alliances” to a global network of security dependents that are treated as an end in themselves, rather than a means to an end. This posture has left the United States overextended, while encouraging allies to neglect their own capabilities and preparedness. The United States can and should significantly reduce its alliance commitments, particularly in Europe and the Middle East, where threats to the U.S. are remote and local powers can balance adversaries. In Asia, the United States should act as a backstop to the regional balance of power rather than a vanguard.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Grand Strategy, Alliance, Balance of Power, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

493. A defensive approach to Ukraine military aid

Author:: Jennifer Kavanagh
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The next administration is likely to continue U.S. military aid to Ukraine to some degree, yet thus far decisions about what aid to provide have been reactive and not connected to any strategy. The United States should use its military aid to push Ukraine to adopt a defensive strategy that will be more sustainable for the Ukrainians given manpower shortfalls and more responsible and fiscally feasible for the United States, while also reducing the risk of Russian escalation. This would be in line with America’s priorities in Ukraine, including preventing a Russian victory and preserving a sovereign Ukraine at lowest possible cost and without direct involvement in the war. This strategy would also put Ukraine in a good position for a settlement that trades some land for a ceasefire and supports Ukraine’s longer-term defense. A Ukraine aid framework centered on a defensive strategy would see the U.S. provide air defense, anti-tank mines, the material and equipment to build fortifications, short-range artillery and limited short-range missile variants, small uncrewed aerial systems, and some armored vehicles for transport. In many cases, however, quantities would be limited by the needs of U.S. forces or other U.S. partners. The U.S. would not provide most types of aircraft, long-range missiles, tanks, or other weapon systems that are primarily offensive in nature and could cross a redline for Vladimir Putin.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Weapons, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, and United States of America

494. Synergising DPI and digital commons

Author:: Vy Dang, Aliasger Bootwalla, Eva Maria Lynders, and Wulf Reiners
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:: Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) and digital commons have the potential to accelerate achievement of the sustainable development goals. Both India and the European Union recognise this: India is a pioneer in DPI, while the concept of digital commons is gaining better attention within the EU. The partners must now work towards a joint understanding of the core principles that govern digital resources.
Topic:: Infrastructure, European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

495. AI Unleashed or Tamed? Decoding Europe’s Bold Leap with the AI Act

Author:: Arianna Jater
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: 2023 saw a boom in generative Artificial Intelligence (AI). However, such a rapid expansion revealed the unpreparedness of governments to handle the unprecedented impact AI systems have on the core values of democratic societies. The European Commission’s AI Act has emerged as the first binding legislation of its kind. It is already clear, however, that simply ratifying the Act will not solve the next challenges. Among those, the immediate one is to ensure that the new AI rulebook is enforced on the national level and that Member States have the resources necessary. Then, the Act, and any future AI legislation, will need to constantly adapt to the ever-changing developments in technology, which now seem to move at a faster pace than ever before. Interdisciplinary approaches and new research disciplines will be needed to analyse the correctness and safety of AI systems, as well as to evaluate their impact on society. Last but not least, the private sector — already employing or only exploring the possibility of introducing AI systems — will need strong support to remain compliant. This brief outlines the state of the EU’s AI Act, discusses concerns within Europe, examines the position taken by the Estonian technology sector and government, and explores the future direction the regulation might take.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Regulation, Legislation, Artificial Intelligence, Private Sector, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe and Estonia

496. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Mobilisation in Wartime

Author:: Andriy Stavytskyy
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third year, we launch a new series of briefs on various aspects of the conflict. Many of the authors of these briefs are based in Ukraine. The war shows little sign of ending. Ukraine is fighting for its survival and is determined to drive Russia from its territory, while Russia continues to hope that it can mobilise sufficient resources to outlast the west’s support for Ukraine. Although there have been important developments at the tactical level—for example, in the increased use of drones by both sides, in Ukraine’s successes in diminishing Russia’s naval power and in its ability to strike targets inside Russia—there has been little movement on the front lines for many months. Both sides have been forced to adjust, operationally and strategically, to the prospects of a drawn-out conflict. In the first brief of the series, Andriy Stavytskyy examines Ukraine’s need to mobilise, prepare and train half a million men to relieve those who have fought since the start of the full-scale war. This will not only challenge the military but will also have profound economic effects.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Economy, Mobilization, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

497. Russia’s War in Ukraine: The Evolution of Grand Strategy

Author:: Leonid Polyakov
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third year, we are publishing a second series of briefs on various aspects of the conflict. Many of the authors of these briefs are based in Ukraine. The war shows little sign of ending. Ukraine is fighting for its survival and is determined to drive Russia from its territory, while Russia continues to hope that it can mobilise sufficient resources to outlast the west’s support for Ukraine. Although there have been important developments at the tactical level—for example, in the increased use of drones by both sides, in Ukraine’s successes in diminishing Russia’s naval power and in its ability to strike targets inside Russia—there has been little movement on the front lines for many months. Both sides have been forced to adjust, operationally and strategically, to the prospects of a drawn-out conflict. In the second brief of the series, Leonid Polyakov observes that while Ukraine’s strategic objectives have remained the same throughout the war, the ways and means to achieve them have shifted. Surprise and mass have become less relevant, but technology must be mobilised through society-wide efforts if Ukraine is to prevail. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s longer-term security requires the construction of a credible deterrence posture.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Grand Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

498. An Edifying Tale of Keeping the Lights On: Societal Resilience in an Energy Crisis – the Case of Estonia

Author:: Tomas Jermalavicius, Dmitri Teperik, and Karolin Martinson
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: In 2021–23, Europe experienced a major energy shock due to a number of significant factors in the energy market. As a result of Russia’s strategy to take advantage of Europe’s dependency on its energy supply and coerce the EU into acquiescence to Russia’s geopolitical demands, the most important course-changing trigger has been the Russian war against Ukraine. A raft of urgent policy measures passed at the EU and national levels, quick adaptation of the consumers to the price signals, the availability of LNG from the US, suppressed demand in China, and a mild winter meant that a full-scale disaster was averted. However, the previous crisis being less severe than anticipated does not mean the next one will be less challenging. Estonian society’s resilience to future energy crises may determine not only the country’s internal political dynamics but also its relations with key partners, its reputation in the EU, and even the country’s long-term geopolitical prospects. In order to understand how well-prepared Estonian society is for such future crises, this study identifies and analyses the key public narratives that emerged during the 2021–23 energy crisis and investigates how they reflected on Estonian society’s perceptions and actions. The narrative analysis is complemented by survey data, which indicates how the Estonian public viewed various aspects of the crisis and its resolution, as well as the extent to which public sentiment echoes or runs counter to the identified narratives. The study highlights several key shortcomings in Estonian society’s resilience capabilities. Firstly, the lack of constructive responsiveness to warnings about plausible severe risks (i.e., power cuts) and low scores on preparedness for future energy crises show that the Estonian society does not have a mindset of crisis preparedness. Secondly, society’s lack of confidence in the government’s ability to successfully navigate such crises has the potential to undermine the relationship of trust and cooperation in similar episodes in the future. Another breakdown in resilience in the response to the energy crisis was related to the failure to maintain a just and equal distribution of risk, vulnerability, and cost. As the narrative related to the profits of the energy companies—especially state-owned ones—shows, the sense of unfair distribution of costs and benefits was pervasive and highly antagonising. As the survey showed, a responsible and competent media, effective government, and an impartial expert community were the most trusted sources of information with respect to coping with the energy crisis. These actors will have to play an important role in rebuilding the confidence lost during the energy crisis, shaping the narratives that inspire steadfast action for forging a better future for energy and climate security, and improving Estonia’s resilience.
Topic:: Crisis Management, Resilience, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Europe and Estonia

499. The Practice, Promise and Peril of EU Lawfare

Author:: Steven Blockmans
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Power generates law and its interpretation, irrespective of whether it serves the cause of international justice. Despite its many shortcomings, the rules-based international order (RBIO) tries to advance that cause. But as a concept, the RBIO is now being rejected by China, Russia and parts of the so-called “Global South” for what they claim is the Western hegemonism and liberal values that underpin it. The fact that these countries have voluntarily signed up to the international covenants that enshrine the legal doctrines to strengthen the sovereign rights of weaker countries, especially in the context of economic relations, makes it hard to sympathise with the argument that the RBIO should be replaced by another concept, especially one that is advanced by autocracies. The RBIO has been partially shaped by the European Union (EU), a community of law that encodes the aspiration of “good global governance” in its constitutional DNA. With the waning “Brussels effect”—the soft power of EU law in shaping international rules and standards, the EU should consider how to instrumentalise the law to protect and promote its foreign policy interests, first and foremost the protection and promotion of the RBIO. This report unpacks the notion of “lawfare” and conducts a comparative analysis of such practices by the US, China, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and others to assess the promise and peril of the EU using the power of the law to its strategic advantage.
Topic:: International Law, Sanctions, European Union, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America

500. Russia’s War in Ukraine: War and Society

Author:: Mykola Nazarov
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 tested the functioning of both Ukraine’s state apparatus and its entire society. During the period 2022-24, the relationships between civilian society, the political elite, and the military have reflected two distinct phases of the war. The first phase occurred during 2022 when Ukrainians were engaged an existential struggle for their nation and was marked by a surge in civic consciousness, a high level of self-organisation, and a constructive relationship between the military, elite, and civil society. From early 2023, however, the war became ‘routinised’. This second phase has been characterised by war fatigue, habituation to war as the new normal, and a division in society between those who are included in the war’s infrastructure and those who mainly focus on their own lives. In the third brief of the series, Mykola Nazarov writes that the consequent changes in trust in the political and military leadership have significantly complicated cooperation between these parts of Ukrainian society. He concludes that overcoming cleavages in society is essential in building the resilience necessary to resist an aggressor and that the consolidation of power as a response to the challenge of external aggression is to be expected, but it is not the optimal management solution. Political plurality, freedom of speech and the ability of the opposition to criticise the authorities without pressure and propose better solutions are necessary for effective governance in wartime. Also, civil-military relations need to be distanced from personalities and based on a robust culture and a framework of inter-institutional cooperation. The Ukrainian system of power has become hyper-personalised, which negatively affects its effectiveness.
Topic:: Civil Society, War, Resilience, Securitization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS