Political Geography: Europe - CIAO Search Results

151. Norway’s vaccine diplomacy during Covid-19

Author:: Emma Sandvik Ling
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: How did Nordic countries manage the tensions and ethical dilemmas of national health security and international solidarity during the Covid-19 vaccine response? This DIIS working paper examines Norway’s Covid-19 vaccine procurement and distribution strategy within the framework of the SCANVAX project on Nordic vaccine diplomacy. The study analyses how Norway worked to procure Covid-19 vaccines to cover the needs of the Norwegian people as well as how Norway engaged in the global pandemic response and efforts to ensure global vaccine distribution. The working paper also examines how tensions between national health security and international solidarity was navigated in public discourse during the pandemic. The case demonstrates how a small non-EU state managed pandemic responses through complex diplomatic arrangements while balancing domestic needs with global solidarity commitments. The working paper is part of the project Strategic solidarity: Scandinavian countries' Covid-19 vaccine diplomacy (SCANVAX) that explores the significant tension between national, regional and international vaccine solidarity during Covid-19 and asks how the dominant policy goal of securing vaccines in the interest of national health security was intertwined with global health security and broader foreign policy objectives, whether related to international solidarity, diplomatic influence, or geopolitical interests. SCANVAX is financed by NordForsk under the Nordic Council of Ministers and implemented by a consortium of researchers from the University of Oslo, Lund University and DIIS.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, COVID-19, and Vaccine Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Europe and Norway

152. Denmark’s vaccine diplomacy during Covid-19

Author:: Adam Moe Fejerskov and David Lyndorff Paris
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: How did Nordic countries manage the tensions and ethical dilemmas of national health security and international solidarity during the Covid-19 vaccine response? This DIIS working paper examines Denmark's Covid-19 vaccine procurement and distribution strategy within the framework of the SCANVAX project on Nordic vaccine diplomacy. The Danish case shows the complexities of how a small European state managed pandemic responses through multilateral frameworks while pursuing national interests, highlighting persistent tensions between vaccine nationalism and global health solidarity during health crises. Denmark's experience illustrates the multifaceted realities of vaccine diplomacy, where even countries with strong international development commitments prioritise domestic health security when faced with uncertain vaccine supplies, while simultaneously using surplus vaccines as tools for broader foreign policy objectives. The working paper is part of the project Strategic solidarity: Scandinavian countries' Covid-19 vaccine diplomacy (SCANVAX) that explores the significant tension between national, regional and international vaccine solidarity during Covid-19 and asks how the dominant policy goal of securing vaccines in the interest of national health security was intertwined with global health security and broader foreign policy objectives, whether related to international solidarity, diplomatic influence, or geopolitical interests. SCANVAX is financed by NordForsk under the Nordic Council of Ministers and implemented by a consortium of researchers from the University of Oslo, Lund University and DIIS.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Vaccine, COVID-19, Development Policy, and Vaccine Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

153. Three opportunities for expanding Danish 'Techplomacy'

Author:: Kristin Anabel Eggeling
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: As governments around the world struggle with the international dimensions of digital transformation, Denmark has been at the forefront with its pioneering ‘techplomacy’ strategy. Now, it has the opportunity to enhance this approach through discursive, geographic and sectoral expansion. The term ‘techplomacy’ merges technology and diplomacy. Since 2017 the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has appointed three ‘tech ambassadors’; opened and developed three ‘tech embassies’ in Palo Alto, Beijing and Copenhagen; and published two dedicated ‘tech diplomacy’ strategies in 2021 and 2024. Thanks to these efforts, Denmark has become widely regarded as a diplomatic pioneer in this field, not least by the large number of states that have begun to follow the Danish model.1 In light of considerable geopolitical changes since the publication of the most recent strategy in May 2024,2 the Ministry could expand these efforts in three ways. First, discursively – by fostering more inclusive global narratives and highlighting the democratic benefits of digital regulation; second, geographically – by extending its virtual reach and physical presence to other global hubs of technology development; and third sectorally – by investing in new forms of cross-sectoral diplomacy that focus on collaboration with key sites of research and development and major technology companies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

154. Beyond Access: Towards productive inclusion in the era of fintech

Author:: Marie Kolling, Kevin Donovan, and Adam Moe Fejerskov
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: New DIIS publication compels financial inclusion discussions to move beyond access to ensure inclusion improves economic well-being for low-income populations. It underscores the linked nature of household and sovereign debt, arguing that both must be addressed to advance global prosperity
Topic:: Science and Technology, Finance, Inclusion, and Well-Being
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

155. Denmark needs to rethink its multilateral engagement

Author:: Rens van Munster and Corine van Emmerik
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Uncertainty about NATO’s future and American commitment to European security is challenging the foundations of Danish foreign and security policy. Denmark must face this new reality and strengthen its commitment to multilateralism as central to its long-term security and influence. Denmark’s 2023 foreign policy strategy acknowledges that ‘the rule-based world order and multilateralism are under pressure’ – a stark reality for a small state whose security and prosperity fundamentally depend on international rules. Intensified geopolitical competition, rival visions of global governance, and the erosion of consensus on international security norms have plunged multilateralism into a full-blown crisis, placing Denmark – like many countries – in an increasingly difficult position.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

156. European Shift: The Path Toward Palestinian State Recognition

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Western and European announcements regarding intentions to recognize a Palestinian state in September 2025 have accelerated, coinciding with the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting. These developments emerge amid intensifying criticism of Israeli positions in both Western media and social platforms, creating mounting domestic pressure on European governments to adopt clearer stances.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Palestinians, UN General Assembly, and Recognition
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

157. A Turning Point, or Not? Principles for a New European Order

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Despite repeated declarations of historic turning points, deep structural reforms to the European project remain elusive. While defense spending rises are welcome, EU governments must also pursue systemic changes to Europe’s political and security architecture.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

158. Nuclear NATO: How to make it credible and efficient

Author:: Karl-Heinz Kamp
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: NATO’s nuclear deterrence is not suffi ciently prepared for the evolving strategic environment in Europe and beyond. The current Strategic Concept does not defi ne which steps are needed to maintain nuclear deterrence’s eff ectiveness and credibility. To adapt nuclear deterrence to today’s requirements, NATO must fi rst and foremost agree on a new nuclear strategy document.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Europe

159. Through Protest to Reform: Euromaidan and Decentralization in Ukraine (10/03/2025)

Author:: Anastasiia Vlasenko and Petro Jacyk
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: What happens when mass protests don’t just demand change, but actually reshape the way power works on the ground? This talk dives into that question through the story of Ukraine’s Euromaidan movement and the sweeping decentralization reform that followed. In the wake of Euromaidan, Ukraine undertook one of its most ambitious transformations: transferring authority, budgets, and decision-making from the central government to local communities. But here is the twist: different places embraced this reform at very different speeds. Why? And what did protest have to do with it? Drawing on rich local-level data, this study uncovers a fascinating paradox: communities touched by protest often moved more slowly to adopt decentralization. However, once they did, they used it more effectively. The protest areas developed polycentric, multivoice decision-making structures that made early reform harder, but later implementation stronger, more competitive, and more participatory. From budget battles to e-democracy initiatives, this research shows how protest can leave behind more than memories. It can build the skills, networks, and civic muscle needed to turn reforms into real functioning democracy. Whether you are interested in Ukrainian politics, the afterlife of protest movements, or the mechanics of grassroots democracy, this talk offers fresh insight into how collective action can rewrite the rules of governance from the bottom up.
Topic:: Governance, Reform, Protests, Decentralization, and Euromaidan Revolution
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

160. Reclaiming Trust: Inga Springe on the Role of Independent Media in the Baltics

Author:: Masha Udensiva-Brenner and Inga Springe
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Harriman Magazine editor Masha Udensiva-Brenner interviews Latvian investigative journalist Inga Springe of Re:Baltica about the rise and fall of the newspaper Diena, Latvia's journey to join NATO and the EU, and how investigative journalism addresses corruption and Russian influence in the Baltic region.
Topic:: NATO, Corruption, European Union, Media, Journalism, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Latvia, and Baltic States

161. Identifying Mutual Interests: How Donor Countries Benefit from Foreign Aid

Author:: Tobias Heidland, Maximilian Michael, Moritz Schularick, and Rainer Thiele
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Official development assistance (ODA) is widely studied for its impact on recipient countries, but its effects on donor countries remain underexplored. To address this gap systematically, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding when foreign aid generates measurable returns for donor countries as well as those cases when donor and recipient interests align—what we term mutual interest ODA. We categorize potential donor benefits into three domains: economic, geopolitical, and security-related, and distinguish these benefits by their timing and degree of directness. We then systematically survey the empirical evidence on donor benefits, assessing the empirical credibility and magnitude of estimated effects and pointing out research gaps. We find consistent evidence of substantial donor benefits across all three domains. A key insight is that aggregate aid flows often mask significant variation: The returns to donors depend critically on the type of aid, delivery modality, and recipient context. These findings have important implications for both academic and policy debates on the effectiveness, political sustainability, and future direction of development aid.
Topic:: Climate Change, Globalization, Health, International Trade and Finance, Migration, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, and Americas

162. To Err Twice: Methodological Pluralism Through the Lens of EU Prison Policy

Author:: Christos Papachristopoulos and Denise Di Nica
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Utilizing the tension between EU and prisons as case study, this article argues for the necessity of a multidisciplinary EU methodological framework. To address the threat of cross-border criminality, the legal principle of mutual trust has been placed at the core of EU judicial cooperation mechanisms. Mutual trust translates to the presumption of equivalent rights protection, a presumption extending to detention, and on the basis of legal standards comprising the pan-EU penal imaginary. Yet, in light of disparate and inadequate detention regimes, mutual trust proves legal fiction. Consequently, and by ignoring the operation of law in action, the Union has exposed itself to the challenge of regulating and effectively enforcing individual standards in prison. To this end, following a doctrinal approach, EU scholars and institutions advocate for further harmonization of detention at EU level. This article argues that such a motion suffers two methodological shortcomings. Firstly, EU scholarship overly underscores the legal dimension of the issue, too readily framing the problematic situation of detention as a legal problem to be redressed via legislative recourse. Secondly, calls for legal harmonization underestimate the political nature of law as policy, and the perils of perceived (horizontal or vertical) illegitimacy of any legally binding intervention. Framing its enquiry by reference to the question posed in this special issue, the article concludes that, while black-letter research in EU law remains essential, novel challenges and idiosyncrasies of the acquis communautaire demand an evolved methodological toolbox, to better reflect the inherent interdisciplinarity of prison policy in the AFSJ.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Law Enforcement, Law, Prisons/Penal Systems, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

163. Regulating Uncertainty: On the Regulation of Human Behavior and its Interpretation by the Court of Justice of the European Union

Author:: Sebastian J. Kasper
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: More often than not, laws are meant to regulate human behavior. However, human beings’ reactions to such regulations are to a large degree uncertain and one can only try to predict them. In that regard, the neighboring field of behavioral economics might provide relevant and necessary insights for effective regulation. However, the Court of Justice of the European Union might, should, or ought to rely on such findings when interpreting European Union (EU) secondary law, to give such rules the most effective meaning by limiting possible infringements on individuals’ fundamental rights. Built on an assessment of the Market in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II), as part of European capital markets law, and with references to consumer protection law, the Taxonomy Regulation, and other European legal acts, this paper, first of all, demonstrates that not only the European legislator but also the Court can, in most situations, rely on behavioral economic findings. Although human behavior as well as results stemming from experimental research are to a certain degree uncertain, concepts developed in behavioral economics describe human behavior better than concepts implying (fully) rational behavior. In addition, obstacles – stemming from both the field of behavioral economics and legal methodology – that arise when applying these experimental findings to interpreting EU secondary law will be summarized and ideas to counter those obstacles are presented. The overall objective of this paper is to further a discussion on how to best incorporate findings from the field of behavioral economics into legal methodology. For this, the paper references, among others, European capital markets law but strives to abstract and generalize key aspects to facilitate a broader reception and discussion.
Topic:: Law, European Union, Behavior, and Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU)
Political Geography:: Europe

164. Arbitral Jurisdiction in Crimea Investment Disputes: Connecting the Dots

Author:: Petro Halimurka
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Under normal circumstances, bilateral investment treaties (BIT) are designed to promote the mutual enhancement of investment climate and to guarantee that foreign investors are treated no worse than investors of host and third States. In many respects, maintaining such relations is believed to reflect economic globalization and the increasingly widespread acceptance of such legal standards as non-discrimination and of striking a balance between national and private foreign interests. Practice shows, however, that the equilibrium of an investment treaty regime can sometimes be disturbed by a chain of actions governed by a field of law with a purpose of a completely different nature, such as the law of armed conflict. Such an interaction can be observed in relations between Russia and certain Ukrainian investors. Following the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, a number of investors, some of whose assets were based in Crimea, commenced investment arbitration proceedings in an attempt to recover some of their rights and interests. This article examines the jurisdictional practice of these arbitral tribunals, along with a critical analysis of the relevant provisions of the Ukraine-Russia BIT, as well as other norms of international law operative in relations developed.
Topic:: International Law, Investment, Arbitration, Jurisdiction, and Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT)
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

165. Adding to the Toolbox: Court Published ‘Fact Sheets’ in the EU Legal Order

Author:: Mareike Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Issued by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), fact sheets act as communication tool within the EU legal landscape, serving as informative summaries of key jurisprudence on selected topics. They raise intriguing questions about institutional responsibilities and the broader implications for dissemination of information by courts. By combining traditional legal analysis with empirical insights, this study investigates the regulatory framework governing court-issued fact sheets and evaluates their classification as a form of “soft law.” The article argues that while fact sheets enhance transparency and reduce information asymmetries, they must balance their informational role with the neutrality and core adjudicatory functions of the CJEU. The research highlights both the potential of these documents to support judicial efficiency and informed discourse, as well as areas where refinement could bolster their reliability and effectiveness in the evolving landscape of EU legal communication.
Topic:: European Union, Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU), Law, and Communications
Political Geography:: Europe

166. The Montreux Convention and its Importance for International Peace and Security

Author:: Ioannis Antonopoulos
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Since its conclusion, the Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the Straits (1936) constitutes an important pillar of the international order. This may be proven by many historical events from the 20th century until today: From the application of the Convention in WWII to its recent invocation in the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. The Convention’s significance derives from its subject-matter, the freedom of transit through the Dardanelles/Turkish Straits in regard to the warships and aircraft in time of peace and in time of war. This is a legal analysis of the Montreux Convention under the scope of International Law providing a brief look at the historical background of events that have led to the signature of the Convention, an extensive presentation of the legal framework of its provisions regarding passage of warships and overflight of aircraft, as well as, some thoughts on its importance for the international peace and security.
Topic:: Security, International Law, History, Peace, International Order, and Montreux Convention
Political Geography:: Europe

167. Minerals diplomacy as geoeconomic statecraft: Implications for resource security priorities in a rapidly changing world

Author:: Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Critical raw materials (CRMs) and rare earth elements (REEs) are essential for defence, emerging technologies, and the energy transition. However, supply chains remain highly concentrated, with China dominating much of the refining and processing. Asymmetries and choke points highlight the need to control these resources. Minerals diplomacy has become a central tool for geoeconomic actors, including the US and the EU, to secure CRMs and REEs, often through deals with resource-holding third countries. This creates new partnerships while heightening competition to bind third-party countries, which, in turn, seek to assert their agency. Minerals diplomacy blends cooperative, coercive, and binding elements, as governments combine bargaining, leverage, and deals to maintain access to critical resources. States are also deploying creative solutions, such as recycling and reusing mining waste, to reduce external dependencies and enable more self-reliant systems, but this requires effective public-private cooperation. The intensifying contest for CRMs and REEs exposes governance gaps. Accounting for local perspectives, establishing stronger international oversight and global benchmarks, and ensuring equitable outcomes could ease competition, give third-party countries a greater voice, and serve as a tool of geoeconomic soft power.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economy, Trade, Supply Chains, Minerals, Energy, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

168. Global development in crisis: Responding to America’s retreat

Author:: Sarah S. Stroup
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: A definitive shift in both resources and rhetoric has upended the global development sector. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the policies of the new US administration, although many European states had already started reducing foreign aid budgets earlier. Beyond its vicious rhetoric and wrecking-ball approach, the Trump administration’s arguments echo three long-standing critiques that development professionals have made themselves. Development experts in the US and Europe argue that development goals have become too broad, aid has failed to reach local actors, and the sector is too technocratic and removed from the concerns of Northern publics. A renewed focus on poverty reduction, combined with power-sharing abroad and public engagement at home, may provide answers to these critiques. Achieving development outcomes may require focusing less on providing direct assistance and more on reducing the harms created by Western states in other arenas, including trade and finance.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, and Budget
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

169. Algeria and France: Back to the Future?

Author:: Daniel Zisenwine
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Daniel Zisenwine examines the recent escalating tension between Algeria and France over past and present grievances.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Algeria, North Africa, and Western Sahara

170. Relaciones de España con Marruecos y Argelia y consecuencias para Ceuta y Melilla

Author:: Carlos Echeverría Jesús
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Morocco claims territories belonging to Spain and Algeria. Ceuta, Melilla, the Vélez de la Gomera and Alhucemas Rocks and the Chafarinas islands, from Spain, and the so-called Eastern Sahara from Algeria. Morocco considers that the Kingdom suffers a “territorial deficit”, and this perception remains today and will remain in the future as an obstacle for the consolidation of stable relations in the region.
Topic:: Regional Politics, Foreign Policy, Territory, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Morocco, Spain, Europe, and North Africa

171. Europe’s Strategic Imperative: Advancing Sustainability for Global Stability

Author:: Reinhold Brender
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Europe’s long-term security depends not only on military strength, but also on global stability shaped by sustainable development and effective multilateralism. From the outset, Donald Trump’s second presidency has placed additional strain on an international system already under pressure, further weakening key pillars of the rules-based international order. Geopolitical divisions continue to paralyse the UN Security Council on critical issues. In this increasingly fragmented landscape, the EU must advance a dual security imperative: strengthening its defence capabilities while tackling the root causes of instability beyond its borders. This policy note outlines six strategic priorities for the EU to advance security through sustainability: (i) implementing the UN Pact for the Future; (ii) helping finance global sustainability through more innovative and coordinated mechanisms; (iii) shaping a strategy for EU engagement with the Global South that reflects geopolitical realities and mutual interests; (iv) delivering on the promise of Global Gateway by addressing operational shortcomings and sharpening its strategic focus; (v) rethinking the SDG framework beyond 2030 to sustain global development momentum; and (vi) winning the battle of narratives through stronger, more strategic communication and credible engagement. These priorities are examined against the backdrop of growing geopolitical fragmentation and structural vulnerabilities that shape both global stability and Europe’s strategic outlook.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Political stability, Multilateralism, Economic Development, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Europe

172. Will the New Government Safely Navigate Belgium through Turbulent International Waters?

Author:: Wannes Verstraete
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: “Yes, our country is vulnerable”, said Belgian Major-General Phaleg Bernard during a hearing in the Defence Commission from the Chamber of Representatives in October 2024. The remarks by him and other senior officers stressed the urgent necessity of accelerating the modernisation of Belgium’s military forces at a moment when the government negotiations were ongoing. By the end of January 2025, these negotiations proved to be successful. The new De Wever Government released its coalition agreement and was sworn in on 3 February 2025. As is often the case in Belgium, the coalition is made up of different ideological parties, namely the N-VA (conservative Flemish nationalist); MR (Francophone liberals); cd&v (Flemish Christian democrats); Les Engagés (Francophone centrists); and Vooruit (Flemish social democrats). The national security sections of the new coalition agreement are spread throughout the document and can be found in the parts on foreign affairs, defence, and elsewhere. In comparison with former governments, the new coalition agreement showcases an increased ambition and formulates some of the minimum necessary adjustments. The previous 2020 coalition agreement was 97 pages long in total and contained 2 pages on defence, 5 pages on foreign affairs, and 2 on development. The new 2025 agreement is 199 pages long and contains 8 pages on defence and 11 pages on foreign affairs and development.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Belgium

173. The EU Campaign against Gender Stereotypes: Ideas, Interests and Individual Freedom

Author:: Sophie Heine
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: It is a sad fact that inequalities between men and women are still prevalent in the EU and impacts on numerous aspects of women’s lives (pay gap, domestic violence, childcare, careers, overall income…). However, the 2020-2025 gender equality strategy of the EU has reached certain results. It prolongs the progress made by the EU in that area over the last decades, thanks to legislation, gender mainstreaming (integration of the gender perspective into all other policies) and particular measures to empower women. According to the commission, positive trends are the following: higher number of women in the labour market and better education and training, even if the commission admits that even on the labour market there is still progress to be made. Thus, women are still over-represented in lower paid sectors and under-represented in decision-making positions. The EU Gender Equality Strategy aims to contribute to the Union of Equality advocated by the first Von der Leyen Commission with policy goals and actions to progress towards a gender-equal Europe by 2025. This long-term goal is defined as “a Union where women and men, girls and boys, in all their diversity, are free to pursue their chosen path in life, have equal opportunities to thrive, and can equally participate in and lead our European society.”
Topic:: European Union, Women, Institutions, Empowerment, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Europe

174. Financial Influence Operations in the Hybrid Threats Spectrum

Author:: Bernard Siman
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This paper examines the Hybrid Threats posed by perfectly legal and legitimate financial markets operations to national security through a variety of legal routes including acquisitions of intellectual property (IPs), E.S.G. regulations, Activist Investors and others. Focus has hitherto been on macro-measures, such as Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) Screening, sanctions compliance, Anti-Money Laundering (“AML”), Counter-Terrorism financing (“C-TF”), supply chain security, raw materials and the like. However, very little attention has been paid to micro-level financial and economic security threats through legal and legitimate financial markets operations. In other words, Why spy when you can buy. To achieve economic and financial security in the interest of national security and maintaining military capability superiority, such micro-financial markets operations in the Hybrid Threats spectrum, i.e., in the financial markets, must be tackled to prevent, inter alia, critical technology leak; as well as to enable greater investments in military capabilities, which have become a key defence, security and Strategic Autonomy priority. The fovus on macro-measure, in other words, is insufficient to achieve the objectives of economic and national security and must be urgently augmented by microlevel financial markets measures and awareness beyond AML and C-TF.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Hybrid Threats, and Influence
Political Geography:: Europe

175. Climate Crisis and Gender Equality: Emerging Security Risks in the Euro-Mediterranean Region

Author:: Manale Abou Dagher, Noura Abdelwahab, Sarine Karajerjian, Suzanne Baaklini, and Zeina Moneer
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: This policy study focuses on a critical and timely intersection – gender equality and climate change – and highlights the disproportionate impact of climate change on women, especially those living in climate-vulnerable rural areas. This publication is the result of discussions held during the session “Climate Crisis and Gender Equality in the Euro-Mediterranean Region: Emerging Security Risks” at the High-Level Conference on Women for the Mediterranean, co-organised by the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) and the Commissioner for Gender Equality of the Republic of Cyprus on 30-31 May. The event brought together experts from the region to share insights, challenges and policy recommendations, highlighting the importance of empowering women in climate decision-making processes to effectively address these emerging risks. Research shows that women’s leadership in climate action increases the effectiveness of policies, particularly in sectors such as agriculture, water management and renewable energy, where they are disproportionately affected by climate change. However, barriers such as limited access to finance and technology and under-representation in green sectors continue to hamper their potential to drive climate solutions.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Women, Leadership, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:: Europe

176. Swipe Right for Talent: Tinder for Jobseekers as the New Way to Recruit Non-EU Workers

Author:: Maria Gargano
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: A platform where EU-based employers and third country nationals could find their perfect half – known officially as the Talent Pool, or more informally the Tinder for Jobseekers – seems to be taking its final shape, and has entered the negotiations phase with European lawmakers. The platform crosses paths with several other EU initiatives aiming at boosting EU’s competitiveness through its labour market. Presented as part of the Skills and Talent Mobility Package, the EU Talent Pool promises the EU employers to help fill their vacancies and help with sector wide shortages, and non-EU nationals to find jobs in a standardised, predictable way across Member States. The EU knows the continent is lagging in talent acquisition compared to its peers. Employers in the EU say they have difficulties finding candidates, with SMEs being particularly affected: 74% declares to be facing skills shortages for at least one job role in their company currently. For some Member States, the situation is not only currently bleak, but those difficulties have doubled or more in the last five years for countries like Belgium, Italy or The Netherlands.
Topic:: European Union, Employment, Labor Market, and Jobs
Political Geography:: Europe, Belgium, Italy, and Netherlands

177. The Arctic: A Strategic Shift for Europe. A Unique Opportunity for Belgium

Author:: Hanaa El Hajji
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: With this clear assertion, the European Union published its updated Arctic policy in October 2021, titled “A stronger EU commitment to a peaceful, sustainable and prosperous Arctic.” Since then, the geopolitical landscape in and around the Arctic has shifted rapidly, requiring greater focus and an adapted response from the European Union as a whole. Since the publication of the EU’s 2021 Joint Communication, the Arctic’s strategic landscape has shifted dramatically. The war in Ukraine has disrupted Arctic cooperation, halting dialogue with Russia within the Arctic Council, and Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO has altered the regional security architecture, leaving Russia increasingly isolated among the Arctic Eight. These shifts have challenged the concept of “Arctic exceptionalism,” revealing how the region is becoming more deeply entangled in global geopolitical rivalries. Meanwhile, the intensifying effects of climate change are amplifying the Arctic’s economic and strategic value.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, International Cooperation, European Union, Geopolitics, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Europe, Belgium, and Arctic

178. The Geopolitical Impact of USAID’s Retreat on Humanitarian Aid: Towards a Complementary Approach between China and the EU?

Author:: Edouard Xia and Alexandre Piron
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Trump’s decision to cut funding and stop most of USAID’s projects will have lasting consequences. First and foremost, it adds great pressure on an already big funding gap. Forgotten and underfunded crises will suffer from it. But Trump’s action will also bear an effect on the nature of humanitarian aid itself. USAID’s retreat accelerates a geopolitical shift. China, “Champion of the Global South”, will inevitably fill the void and promote its own model of foreign aid. Development, economic and humanitarian rationales are therefore expected to be increasingly mixed at the expense of a principled approach. What could in turn the EU, and Belgium within it, do? Could they play the role of a “missing link” and promote a complementary approach to China? This brief offers insights on some questions ahead of the upcoming European Humanitarian Forum.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

179. Strengthening EU Participatory Governance: Lessons Learnt from the Platform on Sustainable Finance

Author:: Sebastian Emde
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The European Commission’s participatory governance framework plays a crucial role in shaping EU policies, as exemplified by the Platform on Sustainable Finance (PSF). However, the PSF’s first two mandates revealed deficiencies in terms of transparency, balance, fairness, and accountability, limiting the body’s capacity to enhance the effectiveness and legitimacy of policymaking. As the PSF’s second mandate ended in March 2025, this policy brief discusses several lessons that can be learnt from this experience. It recommends structural reforms to strengthen both the legitimacy and quality of EU sustainable finance policymaking and to enhance participatory governance in the EU more broadly.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Finance, Transparency, Sustainability, and European Commission
Political Geography:: Europe

180. Science as a Bridge: The Evolving Role of Research and Innovation in Euro-mediterranean Cooperation

Author:: Roger Albinyana, Joan Borrell Mayeur, Marilena Rossano, Rafael Rodríguez-Clemente, and Ali Rhouma
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: This policy study explores different aspects of Euro-Mediterranean research cooperation, offering perspectives from policy-makers, scientists, and stakeholders actively shaping the region’s research landscape. The articles included in the publication present a comprehensive overview of how research initiatives have evolved over the past 30 years and their impact on critical areas such as climate change, digital transformation sustainable energy, health, and inclusive economic growth.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Research, Economic Growth, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

181. From Integration to Inclusion: Empowering Immigrant Women in the EU

Author:: Justine Staelens
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the socioeconomic integration of immigrant women with a particular focus on their occupational integration and the labor market opportunities available to them. It explores the challenges encountered by immigrant women in Western European countries and critically assesses the current policy responses to these issues. The study highlights significant shortcomings in employment integration programs, showing their inadequacies in achieving the comprehensive societal inclusion of immigrant women. It offers a series of recommendations aimed at reorienting the concept of integration toward an intersectional lens that fosters the genuine inclusion of immigrant women within the EU.
Topic:: European Union, Women, Immigrants, Integration, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Europe

182. Fostering regional cooperation on natural disasters and crisis management in the Mediterranean

Author:: Talal Soud Deifallah Alghrair, Laurent Alfonso, Celine Yazbek, Jean-Claude Al Khalil, and Sonia Chabane
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: This Joint Policy Study explores how countries across the region can strengthen cooperation, enhance preparedness, and build resilience through innovation, inclusivity, and shared governance. The Mediterranean region stands at a critical crossroads, as the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and climate-related crises continue to grow. By analysing national approaches to disaster risk management (DRM) in countries such as Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, and Lebanon, the study highlights the Mediterranean’s multidimensional vulnerabilities — from water scarcity and urbanisation to conflict and governance fragility. It examines the role of the Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM) and the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) in fostering cross-border cooperation and advancing a shared framework for prevention, preparedness, and recovery. Particular attention is given to the integration of technology and early warning systems, including artificial intelligence (AI) and geographic information systems (GIS), to enhance forecasting, risk assessment, and decision-making. At the same time, the study underscores the importance of inclusive strategies that involve marginalised communities, refugees, and displaced populations in disaster planning and recovery. Ultimately, the study argues that regional cooperation, technological innovation, and inclusive governance are essential to safeguarding communities and achieving long-term resilience. It calls for a renewed EU–Southern Neighbourhood partnership, leveraging mechanisms like the UCPM and the Pact for the Mediterranean to build a more cohesive and people-centred approach to crisis management.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, Innovation, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Mediterranean and Europe

183. European Natural Gas through the 2020s: the Decade of Extremes, Contradictions and Continuing Uncertainties

Author:: Yaroslav Melekh, James Dixon, Katrina Salmon, and Michael Grubb
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: The European gas system has entered a structurally volatile phase defined by post energy crisis overbuild, dislocated demand trajectories, and a decoupling mandate under REPowerEU. This paper interrogates the contradictions between fossil lock-in through LNG import capacity and overcontracting, and policy-driven demand reduction. The EU’s pivot to flexible LNG procurement exposes pricing to global volatility, while decarbonisation hinges on electrification, demand-side retrofits and hydrogen feasibility—each encumbered by cost, infrastructure lag, and political friction. We assess Europe’s gas outlook through the decade’s residual volatility, policy ambivalence, and the emerging global LNG oversupply regime — a clash with geopolitical energy security imperatives, domestic backlashes against capitalintensive green technologies and market inertia. We argue that Europe’s energy system now operates in a zone of structural ambiguity—where security, sovereignty, economy and climate ambition remain deeply entangled, but as yet far from operationally aligned.
Topic:: European Union, Energy, Energy Security, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:: Europe

184. EuroMeSCo Consultation Circles – Report

Author:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The European Commission launched from January to June 2025 a broad consultation to design a renewed Euro-Mediterranean partnership — the New Pact for the Mediterranean, led by DG MENA under the leadership of Commissioner Dubravka Šuica. To support its design, the IEMed joined forces with the Commission to facilitate regional reflection and structured dialogue—most notably through the EuroMeSCo network, which brings together 120+ think tanks and research centres from across the Mediterranean. The resulting Consultation Circles report captures the key takeaways from a series of regional dialogues held in Rabat, Cairo, and Brussels, as well as insights from the 15th EuroMed Survey—all aimed at building a more inclusive, grounded and future-ready Pact. The Consultation Circles brought together almost 300 stakeholders, including public officials, civil society leaders, youth representatives, private sector actors, and academics. The cycle officially launched on 8 April 2025 in Brussels, in a high-level event chaired by EU Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica, and featured directors from DG MENA and key researchers from the EuroMeSCo network.
Topic:: European Union, Dialogue, European Commission, and Consultation
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

185. Safeguarding U.S. interests in a Ukraine war settlement

Author:: Jennifer Kavanagh
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The United States should pursue a peace deal in Ukraine that serves America’s best interests, even when these diverge from its European partners. The primary U.S. objective should be to achieve a “lasting peace” that endures over the long term. A final settlement of the Ukraine war should address five key issues: territory; ceasefire terms; arrangements for Ukraine’s future security; stabilizing relationships between Russia and NATO and Russia and the United States; and mutual assurances between Russia and Ukraine. Full resolution of all five dimensions would not be required to end a “hot war,” however. Issues of territory will be determined on the battlefield, and any ceasefire should be maintained with a demilitarized zone and some combination of a neutral, international monitoring force and remote and autonomous technologies, lke drones and sensors. Offering Ukraine a binding security commitment is not in U.S. interests, whether through NATO or otherwise. Instead, the best option is “armed neutrality,” which would leave Ukraine without external guarantees but help it build a credible, self-sufficient deterrent—with Europe leading the provision of military aid. Mutual security assurances between Ukraine and Russia, including restrictions on locations of forces and weapons, can reduce the risk of renewed conflict. The Trump administration should use willingness to talk about the future U.S. role in Europe’s security as a bargaining chip to get Russia to make necessary concessions. The United States gives up little by discussing these issues of high political value to Russia. Some changes in U.S. posture in Europe may also advance U.S. efforts to shift defense burdens to allies and partners.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

186. Not Quite Agents of Change: Russian Anti-War Grassroots Initiatives in Europe

Author:: Igor Gretskiy
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Russian anti-war grassroots initiatives in Europe largely originated from small groups of emigrants who, in 2021, organised rallies in support of Alexei Navalny. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sparked a wave of activism by Russian immigrants. Since then, experts have begun to question whether these communities could play a role in Russia’s future transformations. To evaluate the true political potential of these grassroots anti-war initiatives, it is essential to understand how they function. To this end, this report draws on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with representatives of diaspora-type anti-war communities across Europe and highlights persistent characteristics of Russian anti-war grassroots initiatives. Based on this analysis, this report provides the following recommendations: Manage expectations and communication appropriately. European governments should not regard Russian anti-war grassroots initiatives as “agents of change in Russia” or frame expectations in these terms. Émigré activists lack the resources, organisational infrastructure, and motivation for such a role. Clearly articulating realistic expectations will help avoid mutual disappointment and unnecessary financial expenditures. In the same vein, it would be prudent to curb any wishful thinking about Russia’s brighter political prospects. Steer clear of misconceptions about “mini-laboratories” for a future Russia. The idea of framing émigré activists as future “agents of change” in Russia is unlikely to be viable. Their graduates would be too detached from the harsh realities inside Russia to effectively compete for political power or serve as credible sources of information capable of influencing audiences in Russia. Avoid imposing leaders on Russian anti-war grassroots initiatives. The community is characterised by polyphony and a preference for horizontal structures. Intrusive attempts to present any current opposition politician as their representative will only reinforce alienation. Over time, more coordinated diaspora communities may emerge around registered large NGOs, potentially developing their own leadership structures. Prioritise the ‘Europe First’ concept in discussions of the future security system. European security strategy should not rely on dependencies or fragile illusions, such as the notion that only a democratic Russia can guarantee the continent’s security. The claim that Europe can secure its own safety only after a political regime change in Russia is mistaken and creates a false impression that Europe can influence internal dynamics within the Kremlin. Instead, focus should be on what is realistically within Europe’s capacity to effectively deter aggressive actions from its eastern neighbour: developing its own defence capabilities, strengthening societal resilience across Europe, and continuing support for Ukraine. European security ultimately rests in Europe’s hands.
Topic:: Migration, Diaspora, Sanctions, European Union, Activism, Grassroots Organizing, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

187. From Stalemate to Solution: Rethinking EU Approaches to Bilateral Disputes in the Context of Enlargement

Author:: Steven Blockmans and Butrint Berisha
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: In cataloguing the various disputes, this report distinguishes between disputes involving a member state and a candidate country, and those between candidate countries themselves, classifying them into categories such as statehood identity issues post-conflict issues, border demarcation and/or territorial disputes, minority rights protection, and economic issues. While many disputes exist among candidate countries, the more challenging ones for the EU to resolve are those which involve a member state. Member states can strategically misuse their veto power in the pre-accession process to gain political leverage over a candidate country, as currently seen with Bulgaria vis-à-vis North Macedonia and Hungary towards Ukraine. The authors argue that the ability to manage and resolve them is not merely a technical requirement for enlargement but increasingly a strategic necessity for the EU in a more conflicted geopolitical environment. In reviewing past practice, the report highlights the EU’s non-interventionist approach before the early 2000s, noting how the EU itself served as a framework for cooperation and dispute resolution, as demonstrated in the case of Northern Ireland. Around the time of the ‘big bang’ enlargement of 2004, the EU’s approach underwent a shift, with the prior resolution of disputes increasingly becoming a condition for accession. However, this long-standing expectation warrants a critical re-examination in light of inconsistencies in policy application, stagnation in existing dispute settlement mechanisms, mounting blockades, and the rise of nativist populism in Europe. The report assesses a wide range of EU instruments and third-party resolution mechanisms provided by the Council of Europe, United Nations, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, and the Permanent Court of Arbitration. Existing proposals to overcome the misuse of veto power are also analysed. The authors argue that a more strategic, consistent, and principle-based approach to dispute resolution—supported by legal tools, political incentives, and coordination with third-party actors—is essential to re-dynamise the enlargement process and sustain the EU’s credibility as a promoter of peace, stability, and integration. To that end, they emphasise that the Commission should abandon the habit of seeking unanimity at every interim step of the enlargement process, which is not prescribed by EU law, and that the EU should create an Enlargement Dispute Resolution Mechanism (EDRM) that separates between issues that fall under the aquis chapters for membership negotiations and those that should rely on external arbitration and mediation. Furthermore, they advocate that the EU should double down on its preventive efforts to manage latent bilateral disputes through early-warning diplomacy and structured dialogue.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe

188. Hague Summit Series: Recalibrating Relations with Russia

Author:: Katarzyna Zysk
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: At their 2024 Summit in Washington, NATO leaders reiterated that Russia “remains the most significant and direct threat” and that “the possibility of an attack against Allies’ sovereignty and territorial integrity” could not be excluded. They committed to reassess and overhaul NATO’s strategy and policy towards Russia in the light of the radically altered security environment.[1] In the run-up to the Hague Summit, debates have intensified over whether to declare the 1997 NATO–Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security (NRFA) void.[2] Russia’s blatant violations of the act, including repeated acts of military aggression, extensive nuclear coercion and escalation in the grey-zone, large-scale military build-up, and, in particular, its brutal war against Ukraine have made the document increasingly untenable as a foundation for mutual relations. Moscow has openly declared itself at war with the west for years, yet it has simultaneously exploited the reassurance measures embedded in the document to undermine NATO’s security and cohesion.
Topic:: International Relations, Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

189. Hague Summit Series: The Central Issue. Defence Spending

Author:: Felix Gasper
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: In 2014, the NATO Allies agreed that within a decade, they would spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence. Following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and war in the Donbas, and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Allies have focused more on strengthening their military posture. Donald Trump's insistence that Europe should take larger responsibility for its own security and the doubts he has sown regarding America’s commitment to its NATO obligations have strengthened European resolve and emphasised the need for the continent to foster greater military independence, including from the US. Trump’s vigorous return to these ideas at the start of his second term will make defence spending, in particular the Secretary General’s proposal for a new NATO target, the key agenda item for The Hague Summit.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

190. Hague Summit Series: Trump and the Rebalancing of NATO

Author:: Joshua C. Huminski
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The perception that the US has turned its back on or is in the process of separating from Europe and continental defence and security is certainly understandable. Naturally, there is a focus on the noise of President Donald Trump’s rhetoric rather than the signal of his policy intentions. While there remains and will remain significant transatlanticism at nearly every level of government, Congress, and across the ecosystem of policy institutions and industry, there is a growing appreciation of the drivers of the president’s policies within these circles. In many ways, the Trump agenda towards NATO is a practical recognition of new realities, and more a long overdue re-balancing of the transatlantic relationship to reflect the administration’s geostrategic worldview and domestic priorities.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

191. Hague Summit Series: The EU-NATO Relationship

Author:: Marianne Paire
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The return of great power competition and the weakening of the international order have produced significant threats to Europe's security. Most urgently, Russia's aggression has brought large-scale war to Ukraine and Russia into a hybrid confrontation with Ukraine's western allies. At the same time, the US seems ready to reduce its commitment to Europe's security and even to be hostile towards its long-standing partners and the values they defend.[1] This deteriorating geopolitical situation should encourage greater synergies between NATO and the EU, the two main organisations that deal with security and defence in Europe.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, Strategic Competition, Russia-Ukraine War, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Europe

192. The Kremlin’s Balancing Act: The War’s Impact On Regional Power Dynamics

Author:: András Tóth-Czifra
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government accelerated the preexisting trend of centralizing control over regional power and economic assets. This centralization drive has manifested in several ways including tightening control over regional and municipal political institutions, expanding financial control over regional budgets and policy priorities, nationalizing and indirectly mobilizing business assets, and introducing new priorities in personnel policy. While they did not lead to open rebellion, the changes nonetheless created winners and losers, resulting in friction and resistance from regional elites who perceive their interests and autonomy as threatened. Key areas of contention have included the ongoing asset redistribution, which has been challenged by legal and other means; attempts to curtail the political leverage of regional elites; and even certain policies related to the war or its domestic portrayal. The sustainability of the Kremlin’s centralization strategy is uncertain. While the conflicts between the Kremlin and regional elites primarily revolve around bargaining and power dynamics within the existing system, rather than a challenge to Russia’s domestic political arrangement as a whole, the current approach risks intensifying tensions with regional elites and undercutting the federal government’s efforts to make policy implementation more efficient, potentially leading to worse quality governance and instability. Policymakers should seek to understand these dynamics in the context of the prolonged political and economic conflict between Russia and the West and the eventual transition of power following Putin’s rule.
Topic:: Centralization, Regional Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

193. Francophonie: A Subtle Response to Revisionist Powers

Author:: Arthur Leveque and Justin Leveque
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The Organisation de la Francophonie (OIF) has long been a platform where France can reach out to its partners outside Europe. President Emmanuel Macron’s appearance at the latest 2024 Villers-Cotterêts OIF summit testifies to his willingness to defend a French concept of globalisation based on “a diplomacy that stands for sovereignty and territorial integrity” without “double standards.”[1] President Macron reiterated the outward vision of his government, extending his foreign policy to that of the entire Francophonie—seen as a French “area of influence.” The French president declaimed his resolute support for nations whose sovereignty and territorial integrity are in jeopardy, such as Ukraine, Armenia, Lebanon, and the Indo-Pacific countries. Undoubtedly, his speech was addressed to both his non-European partners tempted to apply double standards when Ukraine is mentioned and to revisionist powers like Russia and China.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Globalization, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe and France

194. Security Cooperation between Japan and the Nordic States in Uncertain Times

Author:: Fei Su, Jingdong Yuan, and Jiayi Zhou
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: Amid rising geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty, security dynamics between Japan and the Nordic states are evolving. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Japanese and Nordic security concerns have increasingly converged. Security cooperation between the two regions has expanded through bilateral initiatives and within broader frameworks such as the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Despite limitations in states’ resources and political will to operate beyond their immediate neighbourhood, there is mutual recognition of the need to engage more actively, individually and collectively, on security matters. This shared awareness provides a foundation for deeper cooperation in support of both regional and global security.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Threat Perception, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, Asia, and Nordic Nations

195. Security Guarantees for Ukraine: A Layered Approach

Author:: Luke Coffey
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: President Donald Trump met last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, and then met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and several top European leaders at the White House this week. Yet for Ukraine to secure the just peace it deserves, Kyiv, Washington, and their partners need to resolve two outstanding issues. First, Ukraine is concerned with maintaining internationally recognized borders. Russia fully controls the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow illegally seized from Ukraine in 2014. But Russian forces do not control the full administrative territory of any other Ukrainian oblast that it wants to annex (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia). And since November 2022, Russia has expanded its occupation by only about 2,240 square miles—less than 1 percent of Ukraine’s total land area. For comparison, Russia’s territorial gains after 1,000 days of war amount to roughly the same proportion as if a foreign power occupied only Central Park out of all five boroughs of New York City. These limited gains have cost Russia an estimated one million casualties and tens of thousands of pieces of equipment. Understandably, Kyiv remains unwilling to relinquish control over areas Russia has not even conquered. Ultimately, the Ukrainian people should determine the future status of these territories. Second, Ukraine wants stronger security guarantees. Unlike the territorial control question, security guarantees require the United States’ involvement. Ukraine remains understandably wary of assurances that sound strong but prove meaningless, as has happened previously. The West’s weak responses to Russia’s invasions of Crimea in 2014 and mainland Ukraine in 2022 demonstrated the ineffectiveness of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the 2014–15 Minsk agreements, respectively. The most immediate and effective way to guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security is membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which is technically possible even if some of Ukraine’s territory remains under Russian occupation. This should remain Kyiv’s final goal. But President Trump does not support Ukraine joining NATO, nor will he commit to sending combat troops to Ukraine. With this political reality in mind, policymakers should instead consider a five-layered approach to guaranteeing Ukrainian security. While no single layer is sufficient on its own, together they will provide the most robust protection currently possible.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, National Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

196. The Impact of Drones on the Battlefield: Lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War from a French Perspective

Author:: Tsiporah Fried
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: The Russia-Ukraine War is not just a geopolitical earthquake—it is a tactical and technological inflection point. While many initially focused on tanks and artillery, the war’s defining feature has become the mass deployment of cheap, disposable, and networked technologies—especially drones, loitering munitions, and small-scale electromagnetic warfare systems. In Ukraine, we are witnessing an Uberization of warfare—the use of low-cost, on-demand, and ubiquitous weaponry—alongside the dawn of the robotization of war. In World War II, Germany introduced the concept of blitzkrieg, combining new equipment with the idea of mobile warfare. Today, drone swarms—capable of saturation, connectivity, real-time surveillance, and precision targeting—are not only a tactical revolution, but also a profound disruption of operational art, much like blitzkrieg once was. Moreover, a major shift in the acquisition and technology-development processes made this tactical revolution possible. This revolution—sometimes called a crowdfunding war—should be both a wake-up call for those in charge of defense procurements and a call for a revolution in military affairs. Yet questions remain about the true strategic impact of drone warfare. Indeed, the rapid development of counter-drone measures raises doubts about the long-term dominance of aerial drones as a decisive tool in future conflicts.
Topic:: Weapons, Drones, Missile Defense, Russia-Ukraine War, and Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and France

197. Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections

Author:: Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev, and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: A new survey for ECFR reveals people in many countries around the world are upbeat about the second Trump presidency. Many think Trump will not just be good for America but that he will bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and US-China relations. In contrast, US allies in Europe and South Korea are notably pessimistic about the incoming president—suggesting a further weakening of the geopolitical “West”. Ukrainians are slightly more positive than not about the impact Trump might have on ending the conflict with Russia. But they are deeply conflicted about what could be an acceptable compromise settlement with Moscow. Europeans will struggle to find internal unity or global power in leading an outright resistance to the new administration. But the survey reveals that many in the world regard the EU as a player equal to the US and China—a strength European leaders should draw on as they enter the turbulent new presidential term. Rather than harking back to a post-cold war liberal order, Europeans should focus on understanding and seeing opportunities in the new world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Elections, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

198. Geopolitical greenery: How decarbonisation can speed the Western Balkans towards the EU

Author:: Lea Fanku and Engjellushe Morina
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The European Green Deal and the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans aim to bring countries of the Western Balkans into alignment with the EU’s green goals; and to integrate more closely with the bloc and its single market. Western Balkan states’ progress in the circular economy and transport decarbonisation has been weaker than in other policy areas, such as the energy transition, where the EU has provided more political focus and financial support. Stronger investment in the circular economy would help modernise Western Balkan economies, improve their competitiveness and promote stronger integration among the countries of the region. Sustainable mobility would also enhance regional cooperation, such as projects to deliver cross-border rail networks and other joint green infrastructure investments. EU and Western Balkan decision-makers can kill many birds with one stone by strengthening their formal cooperation on the circular economy and transport.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Europe and Western Balkans

199. Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa

Author:: Maddalena Procopio and Corrado Čok
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have longstanding political and security interests in north and east Africa. But the late 2010s saw a “geoeconomic turn” in their foreign policy. This has led the three Gulf states to make inroads into sub-Saharan Africa. Energy and infrastructure are at the heart of this new economic involvement. These sectors serve Gulf interests, but they are also where Africa’s needs are greatest. This is improving the image of Gulf states in Africa. This ties in with a trend among African governments to diversify their own international partners and foster competition among them. The EU and its member states remain influential in Africa, but their involvement is declining. The Gulf expansion in Africa could exacerbate this—unless Europeans find a way to respond.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geoeconomics, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Gulf Nations

200. Transatlantic twilight: European public opinion and the long shadow of Trump

Author:: Jana Puglierin, Arturo Varvelli, and Pawel Zerka
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: ECFR polling reveals the gloom that has fallen over European perceptions of the transatlantic relationship since early November. Respondents are more likely to call the US merely a “necessary partner” rather than an “ally”. But views of Donald Trump’s return vary markedly according to country and political outlook. That, and intra-European differences on both Russia-Ukraine and China, create ample opportunities for Trump to split Europeans. Building a broad coalition of “Euro-optimists” along with more cautious groups can help European leaders resist any such attempts—and even forge a new dawn in transatlantic relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS