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10051. European Union — Takeover Tensions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The proposed takeover bids directive may be lost unless the differences between the European Parliament (EP) and the Council of Ministers are resolved by June 6. The ongoing negotiations between the Council and the EP in the conciliation committee may be made more difficult by Germany's recent decision to renege on the Council common position on the directive. The move was received with incomprehension in other EU member states. Germany so far stands alone in its attempt to change the directive. Nevertheless, its decision could give MEPs enough ammunition to avoid a compromise in the conciliation committee, and hence to allow the directive to fail. More importantly, Germany's decision also draws attention to the various level-playing field issues still to be addressed in the area of corporate control through greater harmonisation of company law.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

10052. Italy — Berlusconi Victory

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The outcome of last Sunday's general election is now clear. Although the centre-right has won substantial majorities in both houses of parliament, both the Alleanza Nazionale and the Northern League suffered setbacks. The League failed to pass the threshold needed to qualify for a share of the quarter of seats in the Chamber of Deputies allocated by proportional representation. For the time being, Forza Italia, and therefore Berlusconi, who dominates the party, is in firm control of the centre-right coalition. If Berlusconi can retain his authority over the coalition for the next five years, it could assist in stabilising a still highly-fractured and potentially unstable party system.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

10053. United States — 'Plan Colombia'

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Colombia, and South America

10054. Urban and Industrial Pollution Programs: Russia Case Study

Author:
Matthew Addison, Mark Hodges, Steven Gale, and Nick Wedeman
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:
Since the official dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has moved forward to make the difficult transition to open markets and more democratic institutions. The journey toward a complete restructuring of the Russian economy and an adoption of wide-ranging political reforms has been perilous. Political instability continues, crime and corruption have become more widespread, and economic conditions show little sign of improving quickly. Efforts to privatize state-held industries, initially seen as wildly successful, have now met with resistance, and full citizen involvement in government is far from complete.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Environment, Human Welfare, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

10055. Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time-Series-Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure

Author:
Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman, and Sharyn O'Halloran
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper investigates a variety of dynamic probit models for time-series–cross-section data in the context of explaining state failure. It shows that ordinary probit, which ignores dynamics, is misleading. Alternatives that seem to produce sensible results are the transition model and a model which includes a lagged latent dependent variable. It is argued that the use of a lagged latent variable is often superior to the use of a lagged realized dependent variable. It is also shown that the latter is a special case of the transition model. The relationship between the transition model and event history methods is also considered: the transition model estimates an event history model for both values of the dependent variable, yielding estimates that are identical to those produced by the two event history models. Furthermore, one can incorporate the insights gleaned from the event history models into the transition analysis, so that researchers do not have to assume duration independence. The conclusion notes that investigations of the various models have been limited to data sets which contain long sequences of zeros; models may perform differently in data sets with shorter bursts of zeros and ones.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and France

10056. When (And How) Regions Become Peaceful: Explaining Transitions From War To Peace

Author:
Benjamin Miller
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
Three important regions have moved from war to peace during the 20th century: South America in the beginning of the century, Western Europe in the middle while the Middle East has begun the move toward the end of the century. Not only did these moves take place in different periods in this century, but they also resulted in completely different types and levels of peace. How can we best explain these transitions and variations? Western Europe moved from a major war-zone to a zone of peace in the years following World War II. South America started the move to regional peace, even if not perfectly, much earlier in the 20th century. However, since the late 1950s Western Europe has reached a much higher level of peace than South America. A vigorous peace process began in the Middle East, in contrast, only in the early 1990s and the peace there is still much more fragile than in the other regions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and South America

10057. International And Transatlantic Images Of Belonging: The United States And Europe In The 21st Century

Author:
John A. Hall
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:
This topic was suggested to me by a fellow academic. Otherdirectedness has normally appealed to me in intellectual affairs, for it has encouraged thought on subjects otherwise not on my agenda. But I am uncomfortable on this occasion. Explaining why I feel as if I have been offered what chess players' refer to as a poisoned pawn allows immediate highlighting of the argument to be made.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

10058. Price Level Convergence, Relative Prices, and Inflation in Europe

Author:
John H. Rogers
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
If price levels are initially different across the euro area, convergence to a common level of prices would imply that inflation will be higher in countries where prices are initially low. Price level convergence thus provides a potential explanation for recent cross-country differences in European inflation, a worrisome development under the ECBs "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy. I present direct evidence on price level convergence in Europe, using a unique data set, and then investigate how much of the recent divergence of national inflation rates can be explained by price level convergence. I show that between 1990 and 1999 prices did become less dispersed in the euro area. Convergence is especially evident for traded goods, and more in the first half of the 1990s than the second half. By some measures, traded goods price dispersion across the euro area is now close to that across U.S. cities. Despite an on-going process of convergence, deviations from the law of one price are large. Finally, I find a statistically-significant and robust negative relationship between the 1999 price level and 2000 inflation rate in Europe, and that the contribution of price level convergence to explaining inflation differentials is often quite important economically. Still, factors other than price convergence explain most of the cross-country inflation differences.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

10059. The Third Yugoslavia, 1992 - 2001

Author:
Sabrina P. Ramet
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The Milosevic regime was a classic example of what has been called a “democradura,” i.e., a system which combined some of the mechanisms of democracy (with the result that Milosevic's Socialists were, at one point, forced to enter into a coalition with Seselj's Radicals, in order to form a government) with many overtly authoritarian features (among which one might mention the constriction of press freedom, the use of the police against the political opposition, and systematic violations of human rights). It was also a regime which drew its energy from the manipulation of Serbian nationalism, even if, as has been argued, Milosevic himself was not an ideological nationalist. To the extent that xenophobia lay at the heart of Serbian nationalism, the regime found itself relying on an ideology which consisted of an explicit repudiation of such values as tolerance, equality of peoples, respect for the harm principle, and individual rights.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Yugoslavia

10060. The Poles and Their Past: Society, Historiography and the Legislation Process

Author:
Andrzej Paczkowski
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
The Polish nation had experienced both Nazism and communism. These were not equal experiences, and social memory about them differs to a considerable degree. In order to perform such an operation, it would be necessary to halt history in June 1941. Since it is impossible to stop history in order to examine the period from mid-September 1939 to June 1941, it is helpful to study Polish recollections of their experiences so as to understand their continued impact on national history and memory.
Topic:
Civil Society, Human Welfare, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

10061. Violence Against Women in Post-communist Societies: Benefits and Changes

Author:
Vesna Nikolic-Ristanovic
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Social changes, which recently occurred in post-communist countries, brought new opportunities for positive developments and offered the possibility of choice. In most countries, the social transition brought an opening of borders, enabling an influx of positive as well as negative influences. However, even the general positive impact of social changes is typically followed by more negative consequences in the everyday life of the people. The most dramatic consequences of social transition, manifested in a significant rise of unemployment and the loss of many social benefits. These developments are directly related to the replacement of planned, centralized economies by the market and the privatization of state property. Most people lost their previous social security benefits and, despite the fact that the general character of communism was “equality in poverty,” the social transition was a source of serious stress and numerous existential problems. This was further intensified by the fact that, at the same time, the growing import of both material goods and the American way of thinking, i.e. consumerism spirit of the West, urged people to achieve their “American dreams” at any cost.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Human Welfare, and Privatization
Political Geography:
America and Europe

10062. Decentralization and Regionalization after Communism: Lessons from Administrative and Territorial Reform in Poland and the Czech Republic

Author:
Jennifer Yoder
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
While the regional level of authority has gained much attention in recent years in Western Europe, Eastern Europe is still emerging from decades of centralization and homogenization under communism. Several post-communist countries, however, have taken steps toward administrative decentralization and territorial regionalization. This article explores possible reasons for taking these steps and traces the progress of administrative and territorial reform in two post-communist cases: Poland and the Czech Republic. The conclusion considers several implications of these reforms for domestic politics and foreign relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

10063. The Limits of Conditionality: Nuclear Reactor Safety in Central and Eastern Europe, 1991 - 2001

Author:
John Van Oudenaren
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Conditionality has become an increasingly prominent feature of international politics in recent years.1 Once mainly associated with the macroeconomic stabilization programs of the IMF, since the collapse of communism it has been used by the EU, NATO, the OECD, and the Council of Europe to promote a variety of political, economic, and social objectives – everything from abolishing the death penalty to privatizing national monopolies. With increased use has come increased controversy. Critics of conditionality argue that it is often applied in ways that ride roughshod over national sovereignty, ignore local circumstances, and impose economic hardship. Others note the frequent inability of recipients of conditional aid to fulfill commitments to international donors. Even when measured by its own narrow objectives, they argue, conditionality often fails.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

10064. MAP Reading: NATO's and Russia's Pathways to European Military Integration

Author:
Stephen Blank
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
As part of NATO's and Europe's continuing and open-ended processes of enlargement and military-political integration, in 1999, NATO presented aspiring members with a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to guide them in their activities preparing their governments and armed forces for membership in NATO. The MAP, if fulfilled according to NATO's requirements and approbation, allegedly would make the aspiring members' military forces more nearly congruent or interoperable with NATO forces. With this document, NATO has arguably created its own version of the EU's acquis communautaire “against which the Alliance can assess the technical preparations and capacities of the nine MAP partners and judge their readiness for membership.”
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

10065. Linkage and Legalism in Institutions: Evidence From Agricultural Trade Negotiations

Author:
Christina Davis
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
In a comparative study of Japanese and European trade policy, this paper explains how the institutional context of negotiations affects political outcomes. I examine two pathways by which negotiation structure promotes liberalization: issue linkage and legal framing. Broadening stakes through issue linkage mobilizes domestic lobbying for liberalization. Use of GATT/WTO trade law in dispute settlement legitimizes arguments favoring liberalization. This study on international institutions addresses the theoretical debates in the field regarding how interdependence and the legalization of international affairs change the nature of state interaction.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, and Israel

10066. Revising the Two-Major Theater War Standard

Author:
Hans Binnendijk and Richard L. Kugler
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
One of the toughest challenges facing the Department of Defense (DOD) is translating strategic policy into concrete guidelines for preparing U.S. military forces. A defense planning standard is a set of judgments and directives for performing this key function. Normally this standard has three associated roles: to determine the size of forces and their main missions; to establish program and budgetary priorities; and to inform the Congress and the public of the rationale behind the defense strategy and force posture. For example, the Kennedy administration standard was a two and one-half war strategy, and the Nixon administration had a one and one-half war strategy. To guide its planning, the Carter administration used the standard of multitheater war with the Soviet Union in Europe and the Persian Gulf. The Reagan administration applied an Illustrative Planning Scenario that contemplated global war with the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

10067. Renovating U.S. Strategic Arms Control Policy

Author:
Richard D. Sokolsky
Publication Date:
02-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
There has been a tectonic shift in the strategic landscape since the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) negotiations concluded in the early 1990s. The Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact are defunct. America and Russia are no longer enemies and the nuclear arms race between the two countries is, for all intents and purposes, over. The threat of a surprise nuclear attack has all but vanished along with any plausible scenario between the two countries that could escalate to a nuclear war. The strategic warning time for reconstitution of a credible conventional military threat to Europe can now be measured in years. The likelihood that Russia could marshal the economic resources for clandestine production of new nuclear weapon systems on a militarily significant scale is extremely remote. The most serious security threats emanating from Russia today—poorly safeguarded nuclear warheads and materials and the potential proliferation of such material and expertise to states of concern—reflect profound weakness. Simply put, the proliferation risks attendant to a Russia in the throes of a long-term structural crisis are a far more serious security threat than SS–18 heavy missiles destroying U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in a preemptive first strike.
Topic:
Defense Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

10068. The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Author:
Judith S. Yaphe and Kori N. Schake
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Scholars and other spcialists on Iran have argued about that country's political intentions and strategic amibitions since the overthrow of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. In the 1980s Iran's efforts to export its revolution and support international terrorism raised the question of whether a moderate Islamic republic that was able to deal with the West could ever exist. The death of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989 and the succession of Ali Hashimi-Rafsanjani as president raised new issues for the 1990s. As the European and American oil and investment communities considered the race to open Iran commercially, scholars and diplomats debated Iranian efforts to recover from nearly a decade of war and revolution. They compared the merits of the European approach of initiating critical dialogue with the U.S. policy of containing and isolating Iran. Neither approach seemed to have much impact, both conceded, and Iranians continued to sort out their domestic political agenda and to decide how best to protect their strategic and national interests. The U.S. Government, for example, tried to estimate how much time and money Iran would need to modernize its military and to acquire new weapons systems despite projected low oil prices and the country's need to rebuild its damaged and neglected civilian and industrial infrastructure.1 The assumption underlying the U.S. projections was that Iran would be pursuing weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear technology and longrange missile systems.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

10069. Shusha's Pivotal Role in a Nagorno-Karabagh Settlement

Author:
Elchin Amirbayov
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Peace in Nagorno - Karabagh will demand painful compromises from both Armenia and Azerbaijan. A “winner's peace” — one that only reflects the military gains of one side — will not foster long - term resolution of the conflict. The Shusha region of Nagorno - Karabagh has special symbolic meaning for Azerbaijanis. A key element in obtaining Azerbaijani acceptance of a peace agreement is the return of the Shusha region to Azerbaijani control and the guaranteed right of internally displaced Azerbaijani persons to return to the Shusha region.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

10070. Transcript of speech at Kennedy School: 'Searching for Security in a Changing World'

Author:
Eduard Shevardnadze
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
As soon as I first learned that I would come to speak at Harvard, I began to prepare my remarks. Therefore, I had practically completed them when the unspeakable events happened. That unprecedented surge of evil may one day come to be regarded as an historical watershed, an infamous hallmark.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Asia, and Georgia

10071. Judicial Reform and Human Rights in Russia

Author:
Danielle Lussier
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Sergei Pashin discussed Russia's judicial system, past and current debates on judicial reform, and his thoughts on the likelihood of the Putin government implementing a significant judicial reform. Dr. Pashin began by telling about the history and results of the 1991 - 1995 judicial reform in Russia. As the main achievements of this period Pashin identified ratification of the European Convention on Human Rights and acknowledgement of the jurisdiction of the European Court located in Strasbourg, adoption of a number of bills expanding and strengthening citizen s' civil and criminal procedure rights and of the law on jury trials, abolition of capital punishment for non - violent crimes, adoption of a law on judges' status in which real guarantees of independence of judges were declared, establishment of the first Constitutional Court in Russian history, establishment of a system of arbitration courts, etc.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

10072. Negotiations on Nagorno-Karabagh: Where Do We Go From Here? (Summary and Transcript Publication, with Photographs)

Author:
Brenda Shaffer, Carey Cavanaugh, Hamlet Isaxanli, and Ronald Suny
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
From April 3 - 7, 2001 the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe convened negotiations in Key West, Florida, aimed at achieving a peace settlement for the Nagorno - Karabagh conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell opened this set of talks between Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev and Armenian President Robert Kocharian, each of whom met separately with Secretary Powell in Florida and, subsequently, in Washington D.C. with President Bush. The United States, France and Russia were the mediators at the negotiations, as co - chairs of the OSCE “Minsk Group” (which includes 13 countries) established in 1992 as part of an effort to end the conflict. The chief negotiator on the U.S. side at Key West was Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh, who is the State Department's Special Negotiator for the conflict on a constant basis. The negotiations were held in proximity format, meaning that the facilitators held separate talks with each of the heads of Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Washington, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Florida

10073. Russian Democracy: Is There a Future?

Author:
Michael McFaul
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
On behalf of the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, I would like to welcome you to our seminar. Michael McFaul is going to lead us in a discussion entitled, "Russian Democracy: Is there a future?" This is a topic that SDI has been following through our publications and programs for over ten years now. SDI's current thoughts on this topic are outlined in our publication, Russia Watch. The lead article, "Buttressing Russia's Democratic Freedoms" outlines some of our thoughts on this topic.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

10074. Evolution of Japan's Policy Toward Economic Integration

Author:
Naoko Munakata
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
On October 22, 2000, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori and Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong agreed to formal negotiations for the Japan-Singapore Economic Agreement for a New Age Partnership (JSEPA) in January 2001, in light of the September 2000 report from the Japan-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (JSFTA) Joint Study Group. It was the first time Japan entered into negotiations concerning regional economic integration. With a strong emphasis on the need to address the new challenges globalization and technological progress pose; the Joint Study Group explored a possible .New Age FTA. between the two countries, which Prime Minister Goh proposed in December 1999. Thus, for Japan the JSEPA marked a major turning point in promoting regional economic integration.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, and Asia

10075. The Japan-China Summit and Joint Declaration of 1998: A Watershed for Japan-China Relations in the 21st Century?

Author:
Kazuo Sato
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The November 1998 state visit to Japan by Chinese President Jiang Zemin was historically significant in that it was the first visit to Japan by a Chinese head of state. However, many people, including policymakers in Japan, had the impression that the visit not only failed to promote Japan-China relations, but actually strengthened anti-Chinese sentiments among the Japanese public. Nevertheless, both governments treated the Japan-China Joint Declaration On Building a Partnership of Friendship and Cooperation for Peace and Development—issued by the two governments on the occasion of visit—as a third important bilateral document, following the 1972 Joint Communiqué and the 1978 Treaty of Peace and Friendship. The two sides repeatedly have stressed that all problems should be handled in line with these three documents. There is a belief, especially among policymakers, that the 1998 Joint Declaration will be the bilateral framework upon which a strong partnership will be built for at least the first decade of the 21st century.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

10076. Perceptions on Free Trade: The Korean Debate Over the Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Chungsoo Kim
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the Korean public mindset on the country's external economic relations in general, and its efforts of market opening in particular, with the Japan-Korea Free Trade Area (JKFTA) as the case in point.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

10077. Significant Changes in the Chinese Television Industry and Their Impact in the PRC: An Insider's Perspective

Author:
Li Xiaoping
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The television services of China have undergone dramatic changes since the policy of open door economic reform was introduced in the late 1970s. Few research studies, however, have been conducted in the United States and other Western countries on what, specifically, these changes are, and how they affect the lives of Chinese people and shape the media's role in Chinese society. This paper will outline the significant structural changes in the Chinese television industry, particularly at China Central Television (CCTV); it will also analyse the phenomenon of a highly popular program, 'Focus', (Jiao Dian Fang Tan) and its impact on Chinese politics and society. Based on this analysis, this paper will discuss relevant issues surrounding mainland Chinese media, including its editorial freedom and independence, expanding impact on policymaking, and, finally, its future role in the continued liberalization and democratization of China.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

10078. Hong Kong Under One Country Two Systems: Promises and Realities

Author:
Chris Yeung
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The return of Hong Kong to Chinese rule captured the attention of the entire world. While most people conceded that the untried formula of “one country, two systems” was the best possible option for the people of Hong Kong, there were persistent doubts and anxiety about its viability and the sincerity of Beijing in honoring its promises. Whether or not the policy would work was definitely in the eye of beholder.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

10079. Russia's Image of China and Russian-Chinese Relations

Author:
Alexander Lukin
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Discussion and debate about Russian-Chinese relations is on the rise and attracts the attention of experts and policy-makers around the world. From the Russian perspective, the importance of developing relations with its neighbor is determined by several considerations: shared interests and concerns about the international situation, the need to secure a peaceful international environment for economic development, worries about the future of the Russian Far East, and advantages from trade and economic cooperation with the fastest growing Asian economy. Russian approaches to China differ among various groups, political trends and individual experts; moreover, they exist not in vacuum, but within the framework of more general perceptions of the international situation and Russia's position therein. Based on these perceptions, it can be expected that Russia will develop closer relations with China for the foreseeable future. However, since the official Russian attitude toward China strongly depends on Russia's relations with the West, especially with the United States, US policy towards Russia and China will significantly influence the future Russian-Chinese partnership.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

10080. NATO Enlargement: Moving Forward

Author:
Philip H Gordon and James B Steinberg
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The question of whether and how to expand the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) membership is one of the many important U.S. foreign policy issues that must be seen in a new light following the September 11 terrorist attacks. Prior to those attacks, there were strong indications coming from Washington that the Bush administration was planning to support a wide enlargement, notwithstanding strong opposition from Russia and from longstanding domestic opponents of the process. Many of those opponents will now argue even more forcefully that NATO enlargement should be put off or stopped altogether, particularly because Russian cooperation in the war on terrorism is now so crucial.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Washington

10081. Fighting Terrorism: Lessons from the Cold War

Author:
Anatol Lieven
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The war on terrorism, which the United States has now been compelled to undertake, will not greatly resemble traditional war. It will, however, have certain important similarities to the Cold War, or at least to those parts of that struggle which took place in what used to be called the third world. Like the struggle against communism, this will be a long, multifaceted struggle in which the terrorist groups must be combated, but so too must be the factors that impel much larger populations to give those groups support and shelter. As in the Cold War, U.S. military action will be only one element of U.S. strategy, and usually not the most important. As then, a central danger is that anti-Western forces will succeed in carrying out revolutions in important states, seizing control and turning them into more bases for anti- Western actions. It is therefore important that the United States plot its strategy with the Cold War's successes and failures clearly in mind.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

10082. Are Russians Undemocratic?

Author:
Michael McFaul and Timothy J. Colton
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
A NEW NARRATIVE ABOUT POST -S OVIET R USSIA is taking hold in policy, media, and academic circles and shows signs of entrenching as a new conventional wisdom. By this reading, Russia's experiment with democracy has flat-out failed. So misconceived and mismanaged were the political and economic reforms of the 1990s that they have fueled mass disenchantment with democratic norms and brought authoritarianism back into repute. Russians, in short, are said to be giving up on democracy.
Topic:
Democratization and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

10083. The Anti-Terrorism Coalition: Don't Pay an Excessive Price

Author:
Charles V. Peña
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
To prosecute the war on terrorism, President Bush has assembled a diverse coalition of countries for political, diplomatic, and military support. Some of those countries are long-standing friends and allies of the United States. Others have new or changing relationships with the United States. Although there may be a price for their support, America should not pay an excessive price—one that could be detrimental to longer-term U.S. national security interests. And though it may be necessary to provide a certain amount of immediate aid (directly or indirectly) as a quid pro quo for the support of other nations in our war on terrorism, the United States needs to avoid longer-term entanglements, openended commitments, and the potential for an extreme anti-American backlash.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

10084. The Anti-Terrorism Coalition: Don't Pay an Excessive Price

Author:
Charles V. Peña
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
To prosecute the war on terrorism, President Bush has assembled a diverse coalition of countries for political, diplomatic, and military support. Some of those countries are long-standing friends and allies of the United States. Others have new or changing relationships with the United States. Although there may be a price for their support, America should not pay an excessive price—one that could be detrimental to longer-term U.S. national security interests. And though it may be necessary to provide a certain amount of immediate aid (directly or indirectly) as a quid pro quo for the support of other nations in our war on terrorism, the United States needs to avoid longer-term entanglements, open-ended commitments, and the potential for an extreme anti-American backlash.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia

10085. Why is there no mad cow disease in the United States? Comparing the politics of food safety in Europe and the U.S.

Author:
Christoph Strünck
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
This paper compares approaches towards food safety regulation in Europe and the United States. It focuses on mad cow disease and examines how the British Government and the European Union handled the first big crisis in the nineties, juxtaposed to the American response. This worst public health disaster in Europe has led to new agencies and policies. However, these institutional changes do not abolish fragmentation, but extend the existing landscape regulatory bodies. The paper emphasizes that fragmentation-as the American case shows despite its shortcomings-prevents science from being captured by the state, allows interest groups broader access and ensures a distinct pattern of checks and balances.
Topic:
Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

10086. Strengthening Local Administration of Social Assistance in Russia

Author:
Raymond J. Struyk and L. Jerome Gallagher
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
A hallmark of the administration of social assistance under the socialist regimes in Eastern Europe and the USSR was the universal nature of eligibility for benefits, either to all citizens or to categories of deserving citizens, e.g., the physically handicapped. During the transition period since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation has taken limited steps to improve the targeting of benefits. The challenge to improvement is acute because the administration of the great majority of programs rests with agencies of local government. The question addressed here is how amenable local program administration is to improved targeting and more progressive program administration in general. Presented is an analysis of the results of assessments of two pilot programs implemented in two Russian cities in 2000–2001. The “school lunch pilot” introduced means testing in the school lunch program on a citywide basis; eligible families receive cash payments and all children pay the same price for their lunches in cash. The “jobs pilot” is a new, local means-tested program that provides cash support to families while unemployed workers search for work; continued receipt of funds is conditional on a minimum job search effort. We find that both programs were successfully implemented and that there was little resistance to the sharper targeting. On the other hand, a variety of problems with program administration were identified—problems that need to be addressed if program integrity and credibility are to be maintained.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

10087. Russian Nonprofits as Contracted Providers of Municipal Social Services: Initial Experience

Author:
Raymond J. Struyk and Kirill Chagin
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Urban Institute
Abstract:
In the Russian Federation the delivery of social services to deserving population groups is mostly the responsibility of municipalities and other local governments. Services are delivered by municipal agencies. One way to inject competition into the delivery system is for local government to hold competitions to contract for social service delivery. The competitions can be open to nonprofit organizations (NPOs), some of which have been providing assistance in recent years to needy individuals and families similar to those that would be contracted.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

10088. Do Affluent Countries Face an Incomes-Jobs Tradeoff?

Author:
Lane Kenworthy
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
A commonly-held view suggests that affluent nations face a tradeoff between incomes and jobs. According to this view, in the United States pay for workers at the bottom of the earnings distribution (relative to those in the middle) is very low and government unemployment-related benefits (the “replacement rate”) are stingy, but this facilitates the creation of lots of new jobs and encourages such individuals to take those jobs. The result is a high rate of employment and low unemployment. In much of Western Europe relative pay levels are higher for those at the bottom and benefits are more generous, but this is said to discourage job creation and to reduce the willingness of the unemployed to accept low-wage jobs. The consequence is low employment and high unemployment. I undertake a comparative assessment of this tradeoff view, based on pooled cross-section time-series analyses of 14 OECD countries in the 1980s and 1990s. The findings suggest that greater pay equality and a higher replacement rate do reduce employment growth in low-productivity private-sector service industries and in the economy as a whole. However, these effects are relatively weak. The results point to a variety of viable options for countries wishing to maintain or move toward a desirable combination of jobs and equality.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

10089. The Effects of Convergence: Internationalisation and the Changing Distribution of Net Value Added in Large German Firms

Author:
Anke Hassel and Jürgen Beyer
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The paper examines whether and how the increasing internationalisation of firms impacts on the operation of a co-ordinated market economy. Following the tenets of agency theory it assumes that an emerging market for corporate control changes the monitoring mechanisms that oversee management. Since Anglo- American forms of monitoring are usually associated with a higher return for investors compared with Continental European firms, a change in the distribution of the net value added of firms is expected. Using financial data on 59 large German companies, the paper shows that the emerging convergence of German corporate governance practices to Anglo-American standards has had a weak, but significant, impact on the distribution of net value added. This is in contrast to the impact of the internationalisation of firms on product markets, which does not have an effect. Since the market for corporate control is, however, still underdeveloped in Germany, the main effects remain to be seen.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and Germany

10090. What Have We Learned?[1] Problem-Solving Capacity of the Multilevel European Polity.

Author:
Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This Working Paper is an attempt, occasioned by the evaluation of the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, to provide a conceptual framework within which institute research on multi-level European problem solving could be discussed in the context of a more comprehensive overview of the literature. The framework combines an institutional dimension (distinguishing between supranational, joint-decision and intergovernmental modes of EU policy making) and a policy dimension (distinguishing between market-creating, market-enabling, market-correcting and redistributive policies). As institutional modes differ in their capacity for conflict resolution, and as policy types differ in the likelihood of severe policy conflict, greater or lesser problem-solving capacity can be explained by the location of a particular policy area on both of these dimensions.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

10091. Minority Governments and Party Politics: The Political and Institutional Background to the "Danish Miracle"

Author:
Christoffer Green-Pedersen
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The performance of the Danish economy in the 1990s has been successful to the extent that scholars are talking about a "Danish miracle". The importance of government policies to Denmark's economic success is taken as a point of departure in investigating why Danish governments have been able to govern the economy successfully in the 1990s. The paper argues that two factors have been important. First, the functioning of Danish parliamentarianism has been reshaped to strengthen the bargaining position of minority governments, which became the rule in Danish politics after the landslide election in 1973. Today, Danish minority governments can enter agreements with changing coalitions in the Danish parliament. The paper thus challenges the conventional wisdom about minority governments as weak in terms of governing capacity. Second, the changed socioeconomic strategy of the Social Democrats after returning to power in 1993 has been important because it has created a political consensus around a number of controversial reforms.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

10092. Special Policy Forum Report: Europe and the Campaign Against Terror

Author:
Josef Joffe
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 6, 2001, Josef Joffe addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum about the many faces of European politics and policy in the context of September 11. Dr. Joffe, a special visiting fellow of The Washington Institute, is publisher-editor of the German weekly Die Zeit, and a contributing editor of Time (International). A frequent commentator on U.S., British, and German radio and television, his essays and reviews have appeared in such publications as Foreign Affairs, the National Interest, New York Review of Books, Times Literary Supplement, Commentary, New York Times Magazine, New Republic, and the Weekly Standard. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, and Arab Countries

10093. Confusing Signals Out of Saudi Arabia

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Friday in Europe, Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to meet Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Washington's relationship with the world's largest oil exporter has become strained for reasons more complicated than Crown Prince Abdullah's recent reluctance to meet President Bush at the White House, allegedly because of perceived U.S. bias toward Israel and against the Palestinians. Saudi diplomacy suffers a credibility problem because contradictory statements by top Saudi officials often leave diplomats guessing as to what is the real Saudi position.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

10094. Special Policy Forum Report: Turkey In The Twenty-First Century

Author:
Niyazi B. Gunay and Ismail Cem
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On March 28, 2001, His Excellency Ismail Cem, foreign minister of Turkey, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Over the past four years Turkish foreign policy has been experiencing a transformation. Turkey now sees itself not only as part of Europe but also as part of Asia. The Asian character of Turkey, which has been downplayed for decades, has been revitalized, making Turkish foreign policy more active in the Middle East and the former Soviet Union and helping Turkey to improve relations simultaneously with the Arabs and Israel. Turkey's relations with the European Union are progressing favorably; EU membership is a goal, but not an obsession for Turkey.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

10095. Turkey And The Bush Administration: The Question Marks

Author:
Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Turkey's economic crisis is naturally the leading issue in bilateral U.S.-Turkish relations, and it is almost certainly topping the agenda of today's meetings of Foreign Minister Ismail Cem with Vice President Richard Cheney and other senior officials. Of course, these meetings pose the difficult question of how much Washington should do, if anything, to bail out its strategically vital ally. But this is only one of several uncertainties characterizing U.S.-Turkish relations in the early days of the Bush administration. Because so much of Turkey's importance to the United States derives from its critical strategic location, bilateral relations are greatly affected by U.S. policies toward other states in Turkey's region. Of most concern to Turkey will be the evolution of Bush administration policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Russia, and also toward Europe's nascent bid to develop an autonomous security capacity.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Washington, Turkey, and Middle East

10096. Lebanon: Between Hong Kong And Hanoi

Author:
Yossi Baidatz
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In recent weeks, a simmering debate between the two major power centers in domestic Lebanese politics has spilled into public view. This debate pits newly installed Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who represents those who want Lebanon to take advantage of Israel's withdrawal from southern Lebanon to focus on internal stability, economic reconstruction and securing foreign investment, against Hizballah leader Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, who — with the support of Syria and Iran — champions maintaining Lebanon's role on the front line of the ongoing revolutionary resistance against Israel. This tension was described in the Lebanese newspaper an-Nahar as the choice between "Hanoi" (Nasrallah) and "Hong Kong" (Hariri). As with most Middle East crises, the development of this delicate and flammable dispute carries both risks and opportunities for Lebanon and other players on the Middle East scene.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Political Economy, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Hong Kong

10097. Khatami In Moscow Boosts Russian-Iranian Arms Cooperation

Author:
Brenda Shaffer
Publication Date:
03-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iranian president Mohammed Khatami will conduct an official visit to Russia on March 11 through March 15. This constitutes the highest-level visit of an Iranian official to Russia since 1989. There could be an intensification of cooperation between Russia and Iran during Khatami's visit — including on arms sales. In addition to military issues, the delineation of borders along the Caspian Sea will be a focus of discussion. Following talks in Moscow, Khatami will visit St. Petersburg and Kazan, the capital of the autonomous Russian republic of Tatarstan.
Topic:
International Relations and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Moscow

10098. European Security And Defence Policy After Nice

Author:
Terry Terriff, Mark Webber, Stuart Croft, and Jolyon Howorth
Publication Date:
04-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The Nice Summit will best be remembered for the eponymous treaty, designed to make the necessary institutional reforms to allow the European Union to enlarge, but progress in the sphere of security and defence is no less significant. Following changes that began at St Malo in 1998, the EU member states demonstrated their willingness to share the security burden with the United States. However, this apparently positive move has been greeted with caution at best, hostility at worst in the US, where the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) is sometimes portrayed as a threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). What has enabled the EU to produce a common policy on security and defence after decades of failure? What are the prospects for ESDP? What are the implications for the Atlantic Alliance?
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

10099. Breaking with Tradition: Service Trade Liberalization in the EU and Germany

Author:
Jette Steen Knudsen
Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This chapter asks why and how services that were not previously thought of as tradable have increasingly been opened up to international competition in EU member states including even in Germany. The chapter contrasts an explanation that focuses on the impact of economic interests with an explanation that focuses on the impact of EU membership. The chapter argues that lobbying by producers or users of services cannot fully explain reform nor does EU membership simply constrain reluctant member state governments to adopt new legislation. Instead the chapter argues that in important service sectors the German government has promoted trade reform even sometimes in the face of strong opposition from providers, consumers, and unions. The chapter maintains that a crucial key to liberalisation is the emergence of a break in government opposition. In particular, the ability of the government to re-interpret services as regular tradable products combined with new regulation to "shelter" exposed groups such as consumers and workers against potential harm. Implications of this claim for future service sector liberalisation are subsequently discussed.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

10100. Adaptation of the Legal Systems of Candidate Countries - the Case of the Baltic States

Author:
Christen Boye Jacobsen
Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
In all the countries of Eastern Europe, the collapse of the socialism presented the legal system and the lawyers and administrators with an immense conceptional and practical challenge. In a couple of years, and in a constantly changing economic and political climate, they were required To introduce the rule of law and democracy (der demokratisch-freiheitliche Rechtsstaat), To introduce and implement the rules and institutions of a market economy, To modernise the normative acts and the public institutions of virtually all aspects of a modern society, and To implement the EU-acquis.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe