Political Geography: Europe - CIAO Search Results

101. Europeans still want climate action, but don't trust governments to deliver

Author:: Jan Eichhorn and Heather Grabbe
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The vast majority of Europeans continues to support action to combat climate change, but many are losing faith in governments to deliver a transition that is effective and fair. Based on a large-scale questionnaire answered by nearly 8000 people in five EU countries in 2024, with a comparison to responses from 2020, we find that Europeans continue to worry about climate change and want effective action to combat it, even though the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly increased their concerns about economic and physical insecurity. Scepticism about the causes of climate change has risen a bit, and concern about adapting to its impact has grown. People across all income groups, particularly in France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, feel negative about the outlook for their economic future and their governments’ ability to improve it. People who feel politically disaffected think that decisionmakers are not taking their views and interests into account when making economic and climate policies. Some people are now shifting their attention away from action against the climate crisis towards adaptation, but this does not mean they are less concerned about climate change. Instead, for some people, it is an expression of their disillusionment with state institutions – and this feeling is present among supporters of parties across the political spectrum. Worry about climate change is equally spread across all socio-economic groups. Closer examination of attitudes in Germany, using evidence from focus groups, which we also discuss in this Policy Brief, reinforces the finding of increasing scepticism about the German government’s ability to manage the climate crisis. If political leaders want the public to continue to support climate policies, they must engage proactively now to avoid even greater loss of confidence in government. If governments go soft on efforts to combat the climate crisis now or delay action, they will not meet voters’ demand for an effective and just transition. Moreover, hesitation and delay would boost populist and far-right actors’ efforts to sow doubt about the causes of climate change and whether policies will be effective.
Topic:: Climate Change, Elections, Populism, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

102. Ukraine: European democracy’s affordable arsenal

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: European NATO members must raise defence spending by enough to deter through strength an irredentist Russia. This must be done possibly without the United States and when ageing populations demand higher social spending. Raising defence spending to sufficient levels could result in a doubling of current primary deficits to just over 3 percent of GDP on average. This seems likely to be a fiscally unattainable goal for this group of countries. European NATO members, in addition to their quantitative defence spending challenge, face the qualitative challenge of significantly increasing their outlays on new modern military equipment, especially drones, to credibly deter Russia. This will require all European NATO members to significantly increase investments in their domestic and regional military-industrial capacities. While its armed forces are physically defending their country against Russia’s onslaught, Ukraine is transforming gradually into a very large, advanced and cost-competitive military equipment and weapons producer. Through the so-called ‘Danish Model’, individual European Union and NATO members are already actively funding Ukrainian defence production, helping it to help itself against Russia. Much more focus should be put on Ukraine’s ability, if fully integrated with the military-industrial sector in the rest of Europe, to produce much of the modern military equipment wanted by itself and the rest of Europe. This Policy Brief shows how Ukraine already produces drones and modern howitzers, arguably the two most important weapons in defensive warfare today, at prices well below those achieved by other Western military suppliers. The EU, with a fully integrated and funded Ukrainian military-industrial sector, will have the capacity to produce much of the cost-competitive military equipment it will need in future, while continuing to fund its welfare systems. To facilitate this development, the EU must in all defence and military-related matters begin treating Ukraine immediately as a full EU member.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

103. Reinforcing EU merger control against the risks of acquisitions by big tech

Author:: Mario Mariniello
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Since 2000, online platforms that are now within the scope of the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), have bought nearly 700 small, promising companies worldwide. However, only 19 of their attempted acquisitions were notified to the European Commission, the authority exercising merger control over deals with a substantive EU connection. In the other cases, the acquired target’s turnover did not meet the conditions for merger notification. These acquisitions have happened in the context of digital markets becoming increasingly concentrated, leading to speculation that concentration levels might have been lower had some of those acquisitions not taken place. The harm that the concentration of market power in a handful of American digital companies may cause is magnified by the current position of the United States, which aims to shield platforms from regulatory enforcement. Acquisitions of small companies may have pro- or anti-competitive effects. Established market players may buy startups to become more competitive or to supply a higher quality product or service, ultimately benefitting final users. Mergers may also incentivise innovation and attract venture capital. However, incumbents might also acquire small companies with strategic, anti-competitive objectives. They might want to stop challengers to their market power from emerging in the future. Or they might acquire small companies to prevent competitors from relying on the target’s supply to complement their competing products. Moreover, competition authorities struggle to make accurate predictions about the evolution of competitive dynamics in new and complex markets, such as digital markets. Authorities thus may be unable to take the correct decision, even if the merger is notified. Responding to these issues hinges on amending the DMA. The European Commission should be empowered to scrutinise any acquisition performed by the large platforms within the DMA scope (currently, the DMA requires these platforms to inform the Commission of any intended concentration, but envisages no other action). Moreover, the burden of proving that the merger is not harmful should be shifted to the large platforms. This would leverage market players’ knowledge to help increase the accuracy of merger decisions in a highly dynamic and uncertain environment.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Microeconomics, Big Tech, European Commission, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

104. How DeepSeek has changed artificial intelligence and what it means for Europe

Author:: Bertin Martens
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: By mid-2024, artificial intelligence large language models (LLMs) were running into diminishing returns to scale in training data and computational capacity. LLM training began to shift away from costly pre-training to cheaper fine-tuning and allowing LLMs to ‘reason’ for longer before replying to questions. Fine-tuning uses chain-of-thought (CoT) training data that includes questions and the logical steps to reach correct answers. This increases the efficiency of learning for smaller AI models, such as DeepSeek. CoT data can be extracted from large ‘teacher’ LLMs to train small ‘student’ models. These changes shift the cost structure of AI models from high pre-training costs to lower fine-tuning costs for model developers and more inference costs for users. While smaller models are cheaper to use, a positive AI demand effect is likely to exceed the negative price effect. Price competition between models will increase, resulting in tighter margins for AI firms. Specialised models can still fetch premium prices. Cheaper LLMs are an opportunity for European Union companies to catch up in building smaller AI models and applications on top of LLMs. Increased demand for AI services will require more investment in computing infrastructure, including in the EU. Investing in large LLMs and the corresponding hyperscale infrastructure is riskier, especially as price competition between models increases. Knowledge extraction between AI models puts pressure on model developers to protect their investments against free-riding by others. It also creates a dilemma for policymakers: should they favour free-riding to promote competition and innovation, or should they clamp down and reinforce monopoly rents to stimulate investment in AI models? Past policy will not be an appropriate response in a world that offers vastly expanded opportunities for knowledge pooling and innovation at lower cost.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Policy, Microeconomics, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Large Language Models (LLMs), and DeepSeek
Political Geography:: Europe

105. The demographic divide: inequalities in ageing across the European Union

Author:: David Pinkus and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union is projected to enter a period of population decline after 2026, with implications for economic development and labour markets, though these will vary because of different trends in different EU countries. Between 2023 and 2050, Eastern and Southern EU countries will face the sharpest declines because of both natural population decrease and limited net inward migration. In contrast, Northern and Western countries could see population growth driven by higher migration. By 2050, working-age populations are projected to decline in 22 out of 27 EU countries, while the share of those aged 85+ in the EU as whole will more than double. This shift will strain healthcare, pension and long-term care systems across the continent. Eastern and Southern EU countries will face more severe ageing and workforce shrinkages, undermining their competitiveness and potentially contributing to increasing inequality. Western and Northern countries will also age, but slower natural population decline and larger migration inflows will give them more time to adjust. However, regional disparities within countries will likely widen as migrants concentrate in urban areas, leaving rural regions even more vulnerable to depopulation. Policies must be adapted to these different demographic trends. Eastern EU countries should focus on retaining talent, attracting migrants in sectors with labour shortages and increasing labour-force participation by women and older workers. Southern countries should strengthen family-friendly and youth-employment policies, while improving migrant integration and regional infrastructure. Western and Northern countries must prioritise migrant integration, rural development and gradual labour-market reforms for ageing populations. A coordinated EU plan for these different trends would support EU countries in addressing the challenges they will face. Integration of migrants into labour markets and societies will be especially important, though relying on sustained high migration may not be a viable long-term solution and will not be a substitute for maximising the participation of residents in labour markets.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, Inequality, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe

106. Making the best of the new EU Social Climate Fund

Author:: Eva Jüngling, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The slow pace of decarbonisation of buildings and transportation threatens the European Union’s goal of reducing emissions by 55 percent by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050. To address this, a new emissions trading system, ETS2, is being introduced to put a carbon price on fuels used in buildings and road transport. However, the resulting cost increases risk a disproportionate impact on vulnerable households and small and medium sized enterprises. The European Union has created the Social Climate Fund (SCF) to address these distributional challenges. This instrument redistributes a portion of auction revenues generated by the ETS2 among EU countries, in order to protect the most vulnerable. A much larger share of ETS2 revenues will flow directly to national governments, offering significant opportunities for social measures and investments in the green transition. The use of those revenues will dictate how successful EU countries are in managing the transition and protecting households, particularly in higher-income member states, which will receive relatively smaller shares of SCF funding. ETS2 is an essential part of the EU climate policy toolkit. Governments should employ good practices, as identified by the European Commission, to tackle emissions from buildings and transport and to gradually phase out income support, in line with the achievement of investment targets and milestones. Higher-income EU countries should develop additional targeted financing levers to protect the vulnerable and to introduce extra enablers to encourage private investment. Proper sequencing, outreach and communication will be essential to ensure the uptake of measures and public support for policy instruments. Cross-country learning should be leveraged, including through the creation of a European policy registry that will help countries compare their approaches and potentially amend their SCF spending plans on the basis of learning from policies that been successful elsewhere.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Welfare, Transportation, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Protection
Political Geography:: Europe

107. The governance and funding of European rearmament

Author:: Guntram B. Wolff, Armin Steinbach, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Europe faces a grave security threat. Gaps in European military equipment are substantial compared to Russia’s military build-up. The European defence market is fragmented and weakened by home bias in procurement, low order numbers and technological gaps. These problems reflect the combination of past reliance on the United States and Europe’s nationally-based defence governance. With the US now retreating from its role of European guardian, greater cooperation is essential to close technological gaps and reduce rearmament costs. Unless procurement is pooled and fragmentation reduced, additional demand for defence goods will mainly drive up prices. Better-integrated defence markets would both increase competition and facilitate entry of new defence technology firms. The combination of integrated markets and scaled-up procurement could lead to a halving of unit costs. European Union measures including the European Defence Fund, the Act in Support of Ammunition Production, the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act and ReArm Europe represent progress towards strengthening the supply of military goods but the incentives offered are too small to address the home bias in procurement or to coordinate the provision of ‘strategic enablers’ such as military satellites. To go further, the EU and its European allies have two options. First, the role of the European Defence Agency could be broadened, possibly in combination with a new lending instrument similar to the EU’s 2020-22 SURE programme. Second, a European Defence Mechanism (EDM) could be created: an institution similar to the European Stability Mechanism, based on an intergovernmental treaty. The EDM would undertake joint procurement and plan for the provision of strategic enablers in specified areas, with a capacity to fund these roles. It could own strategic enablers and charge usage fees to EDM members, reducing the budgetary impact of rearmament. EDM membership would entail prohibition of both state aid and procurement preferences that benefit national defence contractors at the expense of contractors from other EDM members. Of the two options, the second is preferable, as it would (1) create a defence industry single market among EDM members, (2) create a financing vehicle that might make large-scale projects fiscally feasible, and (3) include non-EU democracies such as the United Kingdom on an equal footing, while also giving an opt-out to EU countries that lack the political appetite for more defence integration, or that have national constitutional constraints.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Governance, Geopolitics, Weapons, Macroeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

108. Who should be charged? Principles for fair allocation of electricity system costs

Author:: Conall Heussaff, Eva Jüngling, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The high costs in the European Union of supplying electricity can only be structurally reduced through decarbonisation and deeper European electricity system integration. In the short-term, policymakers have few choices. They can redistribute system costs by shifting components from one consumer to another. Another immediate distributional option would be to reduce energy taxation, implicitly shifting costs to the taxpayer. Meanwhile, decision-making processes that translates electricity system costs into final consumer prices are fragmented. Rules on the short-term production, transmission and consumption of electricity are determined at EU level. National regulators and governments determine how the fixed costs of the system are recovered from consumers, while national policymakers also set energy taxes. This Policy Brief sets out options for shifting the fixed costs of the electricity system between consumers, for changing energy taxation to reduce prices and for evaluating systemic trade-offs between system cost and other characteristics, such as sustainability and reliability. We also estimate the quantitative effects of shifting costs between consumers and reducing taxes on electricity. We set out four principles for pricing electricity fairly. Policy interventions in the electricity system should not seek to achieve broader economic objectives at the expense of energy-policy goals. Consumer prices should incentivise efficient system operation. Carbon emissions should be priced in. The fixed costs of the electricity system should be primarily recovered from inelastic consumption. European policymakers should develop transparent analytical tools to assess the distributional effects of electricity-policy interventions. Lessons should be learned from the energy crisis, during which EU and national policies attempted to shield consumers from price impacts, and these lessons should form the basis of ongoing efforts to reduce prices. EU guidelines for electricity cost recovery should be established, following fundamental economic principles, and could form a policy toolbox for national governments to reduce energy prices. Finally, the long-term strategic goal of deeper physical and institutional integration of the European electricity should be pursued to structurally reduce electricity prices.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Electricity, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

109. Building coalitions for climate transition and nature restoration

Author:: Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Global climate and biodiversity outcomes will largely be determined in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). We propose a four-pillar strategy to support climate and nature preservation in line with the economic interests of both developing and advanced countries. This would move beyond voluntary pledges to embed climate and nature objectives into the structures of trade, finance and industrial policy, creating a self-reinforcing system of cooperation and reducing the net costs of the green transition. Under Pillar 1, a coalition of advanced and developing countries would link tiered carbon pricing with a common carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Pillar 2 would create a climate-finance coalition to decarbonise the power sectors of developing countries. Pillar 3 would involve partnerships to develop clean energy-intensive industrial production stages in developing economies with rich renewables endowments; these would feed into the supply chains of the European Union and other energy-importing advanced economies. Pillar 4 would redesign markets to create scalable and credible mechanisms to fund carbon removals. Technology-based removals can be incentivised through the introduction of clean-up certificates into the EU emissions trading system, while nature-based removals would require improved market design centred on a new asset class: nature shares. The four pillars reinforce each other. A multi-country CBAM and carbon pricing coalition (Pillar 1) would reduce the cost of financing power sector decarbonisation (Pillar 2). Linking EMDE membership of the CBAM and carbon-pricing coalition to financial support for the decarbonisation of power sectors would also make it more attractive for EMDEs to adopt carbon prices. Decarbonisation of power sectors (Pillar 2) would be a precondition for developing clean, highly energy-intensive industry in renewables-rich EMDEs (Pillar 3). The Pillar 1 coalition should include the EU, China and as many other countries as possible. Advanced countries and China could underpin the Pillar 2 financier coalition. Pillar 3 would involve the EU and potentially other energy-poor advanced countries, along with EMDEs that are richly endowed with renewables. Pillar 4 would include the main custodians of the planet’s natural capital. Enabling these coalitions will require EU leadership.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, Trade, Sustainability, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

110. Reconciling the European Union’s clean industrialisation goals with those of the Global South

Author:: Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Clean industrialisation is a political and economic priority for the European Union. For it to work, affordable clean energy is needed. However, producing this energy in Europe is constrained by limited renewable energy endowments (sunshine and wind) and land availability, while the transportation costs for imported clean energy (in the form of electricity or hydrogen) are much higher than for fossil fuels. An alternative way to fuel Europe’s clean industrial sector would to import energy-intensive primary tradeable products such as ammonia, methanol and reduced iron. We estimate that more than ten percent of total future EU clean energy demand will be met by such products. Public policy in Europe should aim to facilitate trade in energy-intensive intermediate inputs, which are cheaper to import than energy directly. Imports of these inputs could boost the competitiveness of downstream stages in the energy-intensive value chain (such as steel production). By lowering overall energy demand and thus electricity prices, such imports would also raise EU competitiveness more broadly. In many cases, they would replace imports of less energy-intensive commodities such as iron ore, therefore not adding to Europe’s overall import dependency. The direct economic impact in terms of jobs and value added that would be offshored is not substantial. The international benefit of such a strategy would be that it would embed third countries – especially emerging and developing economies – into clean industrial value chains. Stable European demand can help such countries develop export-driven, clean industrial strategies. Politically, this could be an important incentive that could offset the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism. Governments should therefore not use taxpayer money to fight the relocation of energy-intensive and tradeable primary products, beyond some minimum threshold that is desirable for economic security and innovation reasons. Meanwhile, ongoing negotiations with third countries to establish Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships should put trade in energy-intensive clean products at the core of new international clean supply chains.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, European Union, Global South, Industrialization, Decarbonization, Energy, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Europe

111. The time is right to make a European Union-India trade deal happen

Author:: Ignacio Garcia Bercero and André Sapir
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Nearly 20 years have passed since the EU and India started negotiations on a bilateral trade and investment agreement. After seven years of intense negotiations, the process stalled in 2014, primarily because of the failure of the respective political leaders to make difficult choices. Talks restarted in 2022 and now offer a reasonable chance of delivering a bilateral free-trade agreement “within the course of the year”, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared in February 2025. The EU and India both rank among the world’s five largest economies in terms of GDP. Yet much separates the two economically. India’s GDP per capita is much lower than the EU’s, and its level of trade and investment protection is much higher than that of the EU or even its middle-income peers. However, India has recently enjoyed faster growth than any other large economy, including China. The EU and India are also being brought closer by the global geopolitical situation and their common pursuit of strategic autonomy and economic security. The two sides should learn the lessons from past failure and reach an ambitious agreement in areas that previously proved difficult, such as goods tariffs and services, and in new areas, such as climate protection, that could again derail the revived negotiation if not managed well. A deal by the end of 2025 will have economic benefits and will also reinforce the broader economic and political links between the EU and India at a time when world affairs are under severe strain. An ambitious agreement could also help reconstruct a rules-based global order for the new multipolar world. This is particularly important for the multilateral trade and climate regimes, where converging EU and Indian positions could have a major influence on the redesign of international institutions and rules.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Governance, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

112. What to expect from the UK-EU Summit

Author:: Jannike Wachowiak, Joël Reland, and Anand Menon
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The first leader level post-Brexit UK-EU summit will take place on Monday 19 May. The government has stated its desire to strengthen the ‘strategic alliance’ between the UK and the EU, to deepen relations on security and to tear down barriers to trade. Not all of this will be achieved. However, the meeting will mark a significant first step towards building on existing agreements and a test of whether the two sides are committed to matching increasingly warm words with actions. This insight paper explains the key areas to keep an eye out for during the summit and the potential impact they might have on the future of UK-EU relations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

113. Regulating after Brexit

Author:: Joël Reland
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: Deregulation was at the heart of the Conservative vision of Brexit. Boris Johnson negotiated a Brexit deal which gave Great Britain significant freedom to diverge from EU rules and regulations, promising to make the UK ‘the best regulated economy in the world’. This report examines the extent to which the UK has made use of its ‘Brexit freedoms’, finding that there has been very little meaningful divergence from the EU. It identifies the key reasons for this lack of divergence: trade frictions, political complexities, limited state capacity and a lack of strategy. The report then analyses the change in regulatory approach under the current government. It finds that, unlike its predecessors, this government is willing to align with EU rules to remove existing trade barriers and to avoid new ‘passive divergence’ where EU rule changes create divergence by default. Yet, at the same time, the government is keen to use deregulation to boost growth and to build trade ties with the United States. This report identifies a potential conflict between these aims and its EU regulatory agenda, and argues that the UK needs a clear strategy to ensure its multiple regulatory objectives do not undermine one another.
Topic:: European Union, Regulation, Economy, Brexit, and Deregulation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

114. Choices and challenges for UK foreign policy

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: The new British government has come to power at a time of profound geopolitical, economic, ecological, and technological transformation. A major state-on-state war continues to rage in continental Europe. In Africa, the Sudanese civil war has created the largest humanitarian crisis on record. While the recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire brings hope for wider de-escalation in the Middle East, the consequences of the 7 October 2023 attack and subsequent destruction in Gaza will be with us for the foreseeable future. To all of this, the inauguration of President Trump adds a layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile the West struggles to decide how best to deal with the changing nature of competition with China, with rapid technological and ecological change, and with a disparate Global South increasingly hedging its bets in terms of choosing between the West and assertive challengers to the existing order. Confronted with such a complex environment, there is more need than ever for timely, research-based evidence on which to base future policy choices. That is precisely what this report seeks to do. We asked leading experts on contemporary world politics each to analyse the major challenges confronting the UK in a key policy area, to summarise existing UK approaches, and to lay out the key choices facing the government today.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

115. The Brexit Files: from referendum to reset

Author:: UK in a Changing Europe
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:: For the past decade, UK in a Changing Europe has provided impartial, research-based analysis on a number of issues, but most particularly on UK-EU relations. Since before the 2015 General Election, we have evaluated those relations, traced and explained the tortuous Brexit process, and attempted to assess the impact that Brexit has had on the country. This report brings together some of the best scholars working on these issues to consider a number of these questions on the 5th anniversary of the UK ceasing to be a member of the European Union.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

116. Shifting Paths? The Evolution of Southern European Growth Trajectories Between the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid Pandemic

Author:: Fabio Bulfone, Mischa Stratenwerth, and Arianna Tassinari
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: This paper traces the growth trajectories of the Southern European economies (Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) from the financial to the covid crisis. From a review of the comparative political economy literature focusing on Southern Europe, we derive three propositions regarding the growth profile, the development of high value-added services and manufacturing exports, and employment outcomes. To assess the accuracy of these propositions, we conduct growth decompositions based on import-adjusted demand components as well as on sectoral output and employment indicators. The data show that Southern European economies are similar in that export-led growth has not been sufficient to boost aggregate growth, stimulate high value-added services or manufacturing, reverse pro-cyclical employment declines, or create high-wage employment opportunities. But the Southern European economies also differ, both in terms of their sectoral growth profiles and their aggregate performance. In the second half of the decade, Portugal and Spain managed to combine domestic demand and exports to achieve stronger growth than Italy and Greece. Sectoral developments in Portugal and Spain (and to a lesser extent in Italy) tentatively suggest a potential “Iberian growth path” that is compatible with euro area constraints but ultimately peripheral. The paper concludes by considering the empirical and theoretical implications of these findings for the study of the Southern European model of capitalism.
Topic:: Political Economy, Economic Growth, Exports, and Austerity
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Southern Europe

117. Sanctuaries, Islands, and Deserts: A Typology of Regionalized Abortion Policy

Author:: Payton Gannon and Danielle Pullan
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: This paper elaborates a typology of regionalized abortion policy based on a comparative case study of Italy and the United States. Italy originally legalized abortion in 1978 and has seen little effort to modify the law since. Contrastingly, the United States’ abortion landscape has been in near constant flux since 1974, when, in Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court recognized a constitutional right to abortion. This became even more unstable in 2022 when the Supreme Court overruled Roe in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health and held there is no constitutional right to abortion. Despite their differences in national abortion policy, both Italy and the US have regionalized the implementation of their abortion policies. Italy’s law is national, but implementation is interpreted differently at the regional level. Since Dobbs, US states have proposed and passed many laws about abortion, creating even greater regional variation than before. We propose a typology of regionalized abortion access: “Sanctuaries” where abortion is most protected and available; “Islands” with liberal policies that are surrounded by more restrictive territories; and “Deserts” with minimal abortion access. Through qualitative analysis of policies, political activities, and firsthand accounts by abortion providers and advocates working in places of each type, we then highlight the long-term implications of each of these components of the typology, analyzing the ways that they impact abortion providers and patients.
Topic:: Human Rights, Health Care Policy, Abortion, and Regionalization
Political Geography:: Europe, Italy, North America, and United States of America

118. Lessons from West Germany's Cold War experience

Author:: Paul Williams
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: The Russian aggression against Ukraine is now more than three years old. A new US administration is implementing a radical approach to securing a ceasefire and appears poised to limit direct military assistance to Ukraine. Consequently, Europe now recognizes that it must approach this war in a decidedly different manner than might have been presumed only a few months ago. The past may offer hints to a path forward for Ukraine to survive and ultimately prevail against Russia. While the imminent threat of war hung over Europe during the Cold War, West Germany lived under the constant threat of Soviet aggression. Yet, through economic revival, strategic military growth and partnerships, and careful political maneuvering, West Germany not only outlasted its aggressor but laid the groundwork for long-term stability and prosperity. West Germany's experience during the Cold War offers valuable insights for Ukraine in its pursuit of enduring stability and prosperity amid external threats. This blog explores some of the lessons that may be drawn from West Germany across economic and military themes.
Topic:: Cold War, Economics, History, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and West Germany

119. Plunder by Paperwork: Land Use and Legal Manipulation in Russian-Occupied Ukrainian Territories

Author:: Kateryna Kyrychenko and Patricia Wiater
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: In war, land is more than terrain — it is power, memory, identity, and future. Nowhere is this clearer than in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, where the battle is being waged not only with weapons but with registries, decrees, and legal manipulation. Russia’s strategy in Ukraine has not merely been to seize land — but to rewrite the law that governs it. Through reclassification, coerced registration, and demographic engineering, the occupying power is attempting to transform occupation into ownership — to fabricate a claim to sovereignty through legal means. Beneath a facade of administrative normalcy lies a systematic campaign of illegal appropriation — one that violates both international humanitarian law and human rights protections. This blog post outlines the legal framework governing land under occupation, examines how Russia has sought to subvert it, and explains why land law is now a frontline of resistance.
Topic:: Sovereignty, Law, Occupation, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

120. Russian Use of Rape as a Weapon of War in Ukraine

Author:: Paul Williams, Gregory P. Noone, and Sindija Beta
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: Numerous investigative reports into the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine since 2022 have documented extensive and shocking use of sexual and gender-based violence (“SGBV”) by Russian nationals against Ukrainian civilians, prisoners of war, and other detainees. Russia has long been responsible for a largely under-discussed and distressing amount of SGBV crimes, including rape. Russian SGBV atrocities have historically been especially brutal during World War II in Germany, as well as Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. Focus has recently turned to the question of how Russia could be held accountable for its use of SGBV as a weapon of war in Ukraine. Various sources of international law provide prohibitions on the use of SGBV during armed conflict, and there have been successful examples of holding individual perpetrators accountable under international criminal law in past conflicts. As the Russian attacks on Ukraine continue unabated, it is appropriate to appraise the scale of SGBV committed, the international laws being breached, and the possible enforcement mechanisms.
Topic:: Gender Based Violence, Rape, Sexual Violence, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

121. Recognizing 2014: The Legal and Moral Imperative for Full Reparations for Russian Aggression

Author:: Kateryna Kyrychenko, Paul D. Williams, and Sindija Beta
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Public International Law Policy Group
Abstract:: Why are the earliest victims of Russia’s war in Ukraine — those targeted since 2014 — still excluded from reparations, when it was exactly the failure to respond to that initial aggression that directly enabled the full-scale invasion in 2022?
Topic:: Law, International Crime, Reparations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aggression
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

122. Equity and Aspiration: Understanding East Londoners’ Views on Social Mobility and Careers in the Professions

Author:: Mile End Institute
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: This report sets out the findings of survey research which was conducted with a representative sample of East Londoners, asking a number of questions about careers in the professions – including about the desirability of working in these kinds of roles, and the trustworthiness and diversity of the professional workforce – about social mobility, and about the role of universities and other alternative education providers in all this.
Topic:: Education, Survey, Equity, Social Mobility, and Professions
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and East London

123. The Political Economy of Starmer's Labour

Author:: Colm Murphy, Sam Freedman, Morgan Jones, Theo Bertram, and Kate Alexander Shaw
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The first eight months of the new Labour government have been tumultuous, and nowhere more than in the politics of economics. Rachel Reeves has hiked taxes and increased borrowing, but her Treasury are also in tense negotiations with other departments over spending constraints. The Bank of England is trying to cut interest rates, but in a volatile market environment highly sensitive to developments across the Atlantic. The Government has already made itself vocal enemies ranging from tractor-driving farmers to child poverty campaigners, and businesses, trade unions, and lobbyists are currently battling to shape its policies on workers rights, planning reform, oilfields and airport expansions. What have we learned about Labour's economic policies? Do they have a coherent strategy? How united is the Labour Party and what are the emerging tensions? What would a successful economic strategy look like, given the UK's longstanding weaknesses of underinvestment and regional inequality and newer dangers like trade wars and recessionary risk? In this Mile End Institute webinar, Dr Colm Murphy, Sam Freedman (author of Britain's biggest politics Substack), the political writer Morgan Jones, former Number 10 advisor Dr Theo Bertram, and the economist Dr Kate Alexander Shaw explore the political economy of Keir Starmer's Labour Party.
Topic:: Political Economy, Political Parties, Labour Party, and Keir Starmer
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

124. The Third Hennessy Lecture: Baroness Sayeeda Warsi

Author:: Sayeeda Warsi
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Baroness Sayeeda Warsi was the first Muslim to serve in a British Cabinet, during the coalition government of 2010-15. A former party Chair, Foreign Office minister and Minister for Faith and Communities, she is now a non-aligned peer and has become one of Britain's leading commentators on Islam and Islamophobia. She is a prominent voice against anti-Muslim racism, and the author of two celebrated books on the role of Islam in modern Britain: The Enemy Within: A Tale of Muslim Britain and Muslims Don't Matter. In the third of the Mile End Institute's new series of distinguished "Hennessy Lectures", to mark our 10th anniversary, Baroness Warsi reflected on her life and career as a Muslim woman born in Yorkshire, who practised as a lawyer before becoming a minister and member of the House of Lords, and offered "the anatomy of a prejudice" in British society today.
Topic:: Politics, Muslims, and House of Lords
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

125. The Future of the 'Special Relationship'

Author:: Kim Darroch and Evie Aspinall
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Since Winston Churchill first coined the term in 1946, successive American Presidents and Prime Ministers have hailed the ‘Special Relationship’ between the United Kingdom and the United States. For over 80 years, the exceptionally close political, diplomatic, economic, military and intelligence relationship between the two countries has endured changes of government, the end of the Cold War, the ‘War on Terror’, and globalisation. In the week that Donald Trump returned to the White House, the former British Ambassador to the United States, Kim Darroch, the Director of the British Foreign Policy Group, Evie Aspinall, and Dr James Ellison explored the future of Anglo-American relations. With tariffs looming and Elon Musk waging war on the Starmer government, they asked how should Britain handle this relationship - and explored the challenges it will face over the coming years.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Tariffs, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

126. The Conservative Party in Opposition

Author:: Tim Bale, Nigel Fletcher, Lee David Evans, and Mercy Muroki
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: As Kemi Badenoch began her tenure as Leader of the Conservative Party and the Leader of His Majesty's Official Opposition, Prof Tim Bale was joined by Dr Nigel Fletcher, Lee David Evans and Mercy Muroki to explore her approach to leadership and what her Shadow Cabinet appointments tell us about the future of Conservative policy. After the most successful electoral force in British history suffered the worst defeat in its 200-year existence, our expert panel of academics, historians and political commentators considered how the new Conservative leader might approach the challenges and dilemmas of Opposition.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Conservative Party
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

127. GTB v Spain: The Right to a Birth Certificate Under the European Convention on Human Rights

Author:: Cameron Nye
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: On 16November 2023, the European Court of Human Rights (‘Court’) issued a landmark judgment in the case of GTB v Spain (‘GTB’).1The case concerned the prolonged delay by Spanish authorities in assisting the applicant, Mr GTB, with registering his birth and obtaining identity documents, despite being aware of his inability to do so. In a first for the Court, itwasheld that art 8 of the Convention on the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (‘ECHR’),2which protects the right to private and family life, includes a right to birth registration. Accordingly, the Court found a violation against the Spanish authorities for their failure to act diligently to secure this right.3Birth registration is vital to establish a child’s legal identity, family ties and often their nationality, all of which are important for accessing fundamental rights. Children who lack birth registration can face significant difficulties in their education, healthcare and personal lives. In some cases, these children are also stateless or at the risk thereof.4Nevertheless, significant barriers to birth registration persist across Europe and other regions. The GTB judgment has clear potential to place the issue of birth registration and access to identity documents at the heart of the Court’s progressive development of art 8. The Court not only established that access to documentation is a substantive right under the ECHR, but also articulated this through a noteworthy emphasis on the right to have one’s identity recognised in law, particularly where children are concerned.5The judgment also takes a step further in the Court’s interpretation of art 8, considering as its central legal issue whether states have an obligation to go beyond standard procedures to secure an individual’s ability to develop their sense of identity.6While the Court’s analysis raisesvarious questions,particularly whether the obligation exists only as a remedy for parental inaction,it nevertheless establishes several principles that advance the protections of art 8 concerning an individual’s access to a legal identity.
Topic:: Identity, European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), Statelessness, and Documentation
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

128. Recognition of the Status of Stateless Persons and Right of Residence for Palestinians in Belgium: Applying the Principle of res judicata to Avoid Divergences among Courts

Author:: Giulia Bittoni
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The recognition of the status of stateless Palestinians within the European Union (‘EU’) is complex and sensitive, notably due to the challenges in determining whether Palestine qualifies as a state. Moreover, not all EU Member states grant a right of residence to stateless individuals. In some states, including Belgium, recognising statelessness does not automatically confer a right of residence, creating a gap between statelessness recognition and thisright.1This discrepancy has led to numerous legal actions in Belgian civil courts to seek this residence right.Until August 2024, Belgium recognisedstateless statussolely through judicial procedure.More specifically,until 2017, the Tribunal de première instance (‘Tribunalof First Instance’)held jurisdiction in these matters. Since 3 August 2017, jurisdiction has shifted to the Tribunal de la familleet de la jeunesse(‘The Family and Juvenile Tribunal’) based on the residence of the applicant.
Topic:: European Union, Palestinians, Statelessness, and Aliens Act
Political Geography:: Europe, Palestine, and Belgium

129. Reflections on Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe) 2024

Author:: Aleksejs Ivashuk, Jessica Schmieder, and Aleksandra Semeriak Gavrilenok
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe), or SAF(E), is the firstever international forum hosted by a stateless-led organisation, Apatride Network.1The organisation is one of the biggest stateless-led organisations in the world, working to address statelessness in the European Union(‘EU’) byfocusing on awareness raising, legal assistance and stakeholder bridge-building, and impact initiatives that tackle daily challenges faced by stateless people.2These daily challenges may include issues in documentation, employment, banking access, freedom of movement, lack of representation in the media and other relevant spaces. SAF(E) is designed by Apatride Network as a continuous, annual event that takes on the challenge of the lack of systemic awarenessraising on statelessness. The first edition was held from 20 to 24March2024 in Alicante, Spain. It brought together leading experts in statelessness, including experts from stateless-led organisations, representation from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (‘UNHCR’), the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), the Hungarian Helsinki Committee,and the European Network on Statelessness (‘ENS’). This reflection piece is meant to highlight the significance of SAF(E), the lessons drawn and learnedfrom the forumand the impact it has had on addressing statelessness.
Topic:: European Union and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Europe

130. Reframing the Windrush Scandal as an International Statelessness Crisis

Author:: Eve Hayes de Kalaf
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Statelessness & Citizenship Review
Institution:: Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
Abstract:: The 2018 so-termed ‘Windrush Scandal’ highlighted the discriminatory actions of the British State against Commonwealth migrants who, having legally settled in the United Kingdom in the postwar period, found their right to remain wrongly challenged by the Home Office. The controversy led to threats of deportation and incarceration for some, while others found they were locked out of the country indefinitely. This article examines some of the ways in which racialised and minority groups can encounter ‘statelessness-like’ experiences in their everyday interactions with the state, as well as exploring some of the far-reaching and unexpected consequences of measures that have historically attempted to limit migration from the Caribbean and the broader Commonwealth to the United Kingdom. Drawing on extensive oral history interviews conducted as part of the project ‘The Windrush Scandal in a Transnational and Commonwealth Context’, this paper argues that the Scandal provides statelessness scholars with a much-needed window into the distinct ways Global North countries have sought to prevent migrants and their descendants, many of whom see themselves as citizens, from full enjoyment of their rights. Ultimately, the author proposes that the (re)positioning of the Windrush Scandal as a crisis worthy of international attention will firmly embed the inclusion of this controversy into the field of statelessness studies, while opening new opportunities for cultural, political and legal exploration of the broader ways in which people’s claims to citizenship recognition can be thwarted, overridden or ignored by the state.
Topic:: Migrants, Statelessness, Commonwealth of Nations, and Windrush
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Caribbean

131. A New Triangle: The Interplay Between China and EU-India Relations

Author:: Philippe Le Corre
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: China has shaped the U.S.-India relationship for decades.1 Today, another significant triangle is emerging: the China-EU-India relationship. Indian and European leaders are strengthening ties. Both view China as a formidable economic and security rival while regarding the United States as a key security partner (and, for Europe, a long-standing ally). What is the current state of EU-China and EU-India relations? As India’s influence and economic appeal grow, could it become a viable alternative to China for European business leaders and policymakers? How is Brussels incorporating India into its strategies to address a potential crisis in Asia or the broader Indo-Pacific? Twenty-five years ago, the European Union viewed China as a top priority for business, cultural exchanges, and diplomacy. Following the introduction of Beijing’s open-door policy in 1978 and with strong encouragement from Chinese authorities, European companies flocked to China. Initially, many Europeans used Hong Kong as an intermediary for business, but by the mid-1990s, Guangdong Province and Shanghai became key gateways to the Chinese market, particularly for Germany and France.2 Trade and investment surged, especially after China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, which was widely supported by European political and business elites. Today, China remains the EU’s largest trading partner, with substantial European investments across the mainland. In contrast, India was long viewed as a potential partner, but only a few EU member states took steps to forge a strategic partnership with New Delhi. European investments in India were — and still are — limited, with many corporations citing challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, market access barriers, and bureaucratic red tape, which make it difficult to operate in most Indian states. However, the mood has begun to shift. On the EU side, the European Commission’s 2019 China strategy characterized Beijing as “a partner, a competitor, and a systemic rival.” The COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted direct links between Europe and China from 2020 to 2022, caused significant strain. This was followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, an event many on the continent perceive as having Beijing’s tacit support. Additional factors, including an increasingly authoritarian regime at home and a more assertive China abroad, have contributed to European perceptions,3 as explained at length by the Center for China Analysis’s latest Global Public Opinion on China project.4 This, in turn, has affected the EU-China relationship, which has been gradually downgraded from the “honeymoon” period of 1995–2015. On the other hand, the strengthening EU-India relationship is a relatively recent development, driven by several factors that have emerged in the wake of the pandemic. These include the rise of the ambitious Bharatiya Janata Party under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who first took office in 2014 and is now serving his third term, as well as a broader diversity of partnerships between the EU and India. Other factors influencing EU-India relations include the growing assertiveness of the People’s Republic of China and the United States’ shift away from multilateralism during President Donald Trump’s first term (2017–2021). Since January 2025, the increasing probability of a break in the transatlantic alliance under the new Trump administration is leading the EU to look for new partners, including in the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, India’s robust GDP growth — 6.6% in 2025 and a projected 6.7% in 2026 — has attracted European businesses.5 In a global environment defined by multipolarity, could the previously low-profile EU-India relationship evolve into a closer partnership? With EU-China relations facing significant challenges, might India emerge as a viable alternative Asian partner for Europe? The current EU-India relationship is described as “strategic.” In reality, it is partial and uneven, and there are major differences in the nature of relations between India and individual EU member states. Meanwhile, how does Beijing view its competitor in the Global South as it seeks to win over Europe’s support? This paper explores the dynamics of the interaction among these three powers in the rapidly changing geopolitical context. It examines India’s political and economic challenges in the context of the EU-China relationship, how the EU-India relationship is evolving, and whether an EU-India partnership could take center stage if tensions with China escalate. European countries have kept strong ties with the Global South, and some see a strong India as a potential bridge for fostering cooperation in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:: China, Europe, India, and Asia

132. EU-Taiwan Relations: Navigating PRC Pressure, U.S.-China Competition, and Trump’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Simona Grano
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: This paper first explores the growing relationship between the European Union and Taiwan by focusing on recent interactions. It then discusses the broader geopolitical implications of Trump’s “America First” policy and how the U.S.-China competition impacts the EU’s ability to strategically balance the China-Taiwan dynamic. The paper demonstrates how a number of variables, including Europe’s strategic interests in the region, the U.S. position on China, and the U.S.-EU relationship under the second Trump administration, will influence ties between the EU and Taiwan. The shift in EU-Taiwan ties has gone largely unnoticed. The EU has started paying more attention to Taiwan’s security, shifting away from its former focus on China for its importance in trade and investment. This shift is partly due to supply chain and security concerns and partly due to growing political apprehension about China’s long-term goals. In the coming years, Europe will be influenced by the Trump administration when deciding how to handle Taiwan. The EU will have to find a balance between the need for steady access to vital technology and U.S.-EU relations. At the same time, the EU and the United States seem to have entered a critical phase in their bilateral relationship, especially concerning the war in Ukraine and Washington’s warming relationship with Moscow. This indeterminate situation may also impact the EU’s relationship with both Taiwan and China, the consequences of which will take several months to fully gauge.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

133. Building national preparedness: A road map for Australia and what we should learn from Finland

Author:: Marc Ablong
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Australia faces increasing threats from natural disasters, pandemics and geopolitical tensions—including the increasing likelihood of conflict and war—necessitating robust preparedness mechanisms. But Australia lacks a comprehensive national preparedness framework that’s fit for purpose against the broad range of threats that the nation is likely to face soon and in the foreseeable future. Beyond a narrow range of potential crises, Australia remains poorly prepared, and little government attention is currently paid to understanding or resourcing national preparedness for threats, beyond annually reviewed natural-disaster arrangements. The Australian Government isn’t doing enough to prepare Australian citizens for the more volatile and uncertain strategic environment that we face. There’s no regular public discourse about the national risks to Australia, there’s no planning or capability development for mitigating such risks, and there’s no regular program for educating, training or exercising Australia’s communities to deal with them. National preparedness isn’t just a task for a national government; it’s a truly whole-of-society activity and a shared responsibility of all within the nation, including all three levels of government, businesses, civil society and the citizenry at large. This report recommends a road map of immediate, near-term and longer term initiatives that the Australian Government should embrace as it builds the capabilities and capacities needed to fully prepare the nation. The roadmap is split into two parts, the first focuses on building an effective national preparedness system, while the second part focuses on the capabilities and capacities needed for national preparedness. The road maps contain recommendations for Australian policymakers, industry, civil society, critical infrastructure owners and operators, the Defence organisation and the defence industry. By implementing these initiatives across all sectors, Australia can build and maintain a robust national preparedness and resilience framework capable of meeting all threats, up to and including war, thereby safeguarding its security, prosperity and way of life. The Republic of Finland is an excellent exemplar of what a nation can do to build and maintain national resilience and national preparedness against all hazards, including the risk of conflict and war. Finland’s Comprehensive National Security model and ‘total defence’ strategy, which integrate civilian and military preparedness, offer valuable insights for strengthening Australia’s national preparedness framework. Australia and Finland have the opportunity to work together to build and maintain more robust national preparedness systems that help each country to address future crises. That can be done by fostering collaboration in knowledge exchange, policy development, intelligence sharing and bilateral cooperation on issues such as crisis management and civil defence; military preparedness and defence cooperation; disaster management and crisis response; cybersecurity; social resilience and public preparedness; and international collaboration and multilateral engagement.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, National Security, European Union, Resilience, and Research and Development
Political Geography:: Europe, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

134. The Current State of Energy Security in Europe

Author:: Dan Ziebarth, Johannes Späth, and Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: This Policy Analysis examines the state of energy security in Europe. The concept of energy security has been commonly used to refer to the ability to securing uninterrupted access to energy and energy supplies at an affordable price (IEA, World Energy Outlook 2022). Energy security is essential for maintaining economic stability, political security, and social well-being. Although, the classic approach energy security is reducing dependencies through the diversification of energy sources and supplies, energy security also requires robust and resilient infrastructure, political and bureaucratic will, market conditions and cooperation. Building for energy security also entails the right assessment of the existing realities. Europe‘s energy security faces multiple threats and risks. This policy analysis identifies four major threat domains to energy security: (1) geopolitical coercion and cyberattacks; (2) infrastructural and systemic weaknesses; (3) resource scarcity and critical mineral dependency; and (4) political/regulatory fragmentation. The paper argues that over-reliance on diversification (e.g., of imports such as replacing Russian gas with Qatari LNG and diversifying the energy mix through an increase in renewable energy) won‘t be enough. The EU also needs to invest in innovative technologies and infrastructure. The blackout in Spain highlighted the vulnerability of grids to high levels of renewable energy without the necessary adaptations. European energy security requites inclusive and integrated resilience strategies with a whole-of-society approach, technological innovation and cooperation, investment in infrastructure, bureaucratic coordination, and political unity.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Resilience, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Europe

135. Flawed by Design: What al-Sisi’s Egypt Reveals About the Myth of Authoritarian Efficiency

Author:: Johannes Späth
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: This policy analysis challenges the rising narrative that authoritarian regimes, despite their repressive nature, offer superior governance efficiency and contribute to regional stability. Using Egypt under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi as a case study, it argues that the perception of authoritarian efficiency is not only analytically flawed but dangerously misleading for international policymakers. European and Western engagement with Egypt continues to rely on flawed assumptions about authoritarian capacity and stability. Financial support, arms sales, and diplomatic legitimacy are extended largely unconditionally, under the illusion that al-Sisi’s regime can deliver long-term order. This approach ignores the structural fragility baked into Egypt’s political economy, and risks enabling a trajectory toward fiscal implosion and social unrest. The paper argues for a strategic recalibration. European policymakers should shift from regime-centered engagement to resilience-centered investment, focusing on areas like education, climate adaptation, and local economic empowerment that outlast regime cycles. Europe’s current approach risks buying short-term quiet at the cost of long-term instability. A policy recalibration grounded in realism, not regime accommodation, is both necessary and overdue.
Topic:: Political Economy, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, European Union, Regime Security, Regional Stability, and Regime Legitimation
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and Egypt

136. NATO is safe, but for how long? What needs to be taken from the Hague Summit

Author:: Sophie Draeger and Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: The Hague NATO Summit was a success – on the paper. Mark Rutte’s first test as Secretary-General may have avoided the chaos of Trump’s first term, but the outcome reveals deep contradictions in the Alliance. The agreed 5% defence spending target is historic and the final communiqué strikingly short, yet these moves mask rather than resolve NATO’s structural vulnerability. Trump’s transactional view of Article 5 remains the Alliance’s Damocles sword, as America’s long-term commitment to Europe remains in question. The EU, meanwhile, is facing a strategic and identity crossroads. While Trump’s pressure spurs long-overdue momentum toward a stronger European defence posture, it also risks accelerating Europe’s militarization at the expense of its founding peace project. The 'phoney transatlantic bargain' – Europe promises to spend, Trump promises to stay – may hold for now, but cannot guarantee NATO’s credibility in the long run. Amid economic risks and political fragmentation, the EU must act fast to assert its own roadmap, including tying EU funds to defence efforts and planning for U.S. retrenchment. Without this, Europe may find itself simultaneously more militarized and more vulnerable.
Topic:: NATO, European Union, Alliance, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

137. The ‘geopolitical’ European Union and the new Transatlantic relation 100 days after Donald Trump’s inauguration: How to navigate the storm?

Author:: Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Donald Trump’s second administration is a test for the “geopolitical” EU. It comes at a time of morosity and decline in Europe, both in terms of hard and soft power, and reveals EU’s major structural deficiencies and dependencies. In Ukraine, “Europe’s era is over”, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev cynically assessed. At the same time, Donald Trump’s contemptuous foreign policy plays an accelerating role for the EU’s long-awaited strategic autonomy. The narrative is rapidly changing and the Commission’s first initiatives are promising, but the EU needs not only competitiveness but also political ambition. New ‘coalitions of the willing’ are emerging in Europe across old borders such as Brexit-related divisions or rivalries between the EU and NATO, reviving the concept of ‘concentric circles’. They might provide Europe with much needed impulse, but also enhance divisions and internal quarrels, which is in Trump’s strategy. Trump.2 also accelerates the ‘de-Westernisation’ of the world and leaves Europe alone versus ‘the Rest’. With EU’s more assertive stance and strategic quantum leap, it might also question and jeopardize Europe’s original peace project.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Inauguration
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

138. Navigating neutrality: How to find the best match between NATO and its four remaining neutral Western European Partners (WEP4)?

Author:: Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: “Is small still beautiful?” (Gebhard, 2013). Is NATO still interested in the remaining four neutral countries in Europe (Austria, Ireland, Malta and Switzerland)? Can these WEP4 benefit from the Alliance’s ‘return to Europe’ in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? On the opposite, might the Alliance’s ‘war’ approach, with high focus on defence and deterrence, risk marginalizing them and evidencing “the limits of partnership for deterrence” (Aronsson & Swaney, 2022, 5)? Using the opportunity of the current geopolitical crisis as well as rapidly shifting alliance constellations, this paper aims to assess the current partnership between NATO and the WEP4 and to provide with a framework for its redefinition in light of the new security context in Europe. While keeping Trump.2 ‘after-shock’, the current turmoil of the new Transatlantic relation as well as NATO’s existential crisis on the way to its summit in The Hague in June 2025, as a background, this paper tries to isolate the question of the WEP4 from the ‘elephant in the room’ and to address it as a per se challenge.
Topic:: NATO, Deterrence, Transatlantic Relations, and Neutrality
Political Geography:: Europe

139. From Belgrade to Tbilisi: How the EU Views Civil Protests

Author:: Ljiljana Kolarski
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: From Belgrade to Tbilisi: How the EU Views Civil Protests The European Union (EU) has long positioned itself as a promoter of democratic values, human rights, and media freedom. However, its stance on opposition protests in different countries is often influenced by a complex interplay of geopolitical considerations and pragmatic interests. This paper examines the EU’s contrasting reactions to anti-government protests in Serbia and Georgia in 2024, emphasizing how these responses are shaped by the political alignments of the respective governments. On the one hand, the EU has brought a strong support to opposition in Georgia, whose government maintains close ties with its northern neighbor, Russia. On the other hand, Brussels has failed to actively support opposition groups in Serbia, which has visibly distanced itself from Moscow since the war began without moving towards greater democratization.
Topic:: European Union, Democracy, Protests, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Serbia, and Georgia

140. The European Union and Critical Raw Materials: Juggling Geopolitical and Economic Realities

Author:: Dan Ziebarth
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Over the past decade, critical raw materials (CRMs) have emerged as a crucial focus for governments and industries worldwide. These materials, which include rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, and others, have gained strategic importance due to their essential role in modern technologies, particularly those related to clean energy, digitalization, and advanced manufacturing (CRM Alliance 2024). In particular, the essential role of CRMs in clean energy technologies and the global push for a green energy transition have led to a surge in demand for CRMs (World Economic Forum 24-05-2024). This surge has created substantial opportunities for green industrialization. According to the International Energy Agency, the market for these raw materials has more than doubled over the past five years, with expectations of "unprecedented growth" in the coming years (International Energy Agency 2023); current climate commitments could lead to a quadrupling of global demand for materials such as rare earths, cobalt, and nickel by 2040 (Findeisen & Wernert 30-06-2023). CRMs are of paramount importance for the European Union’s economy, industrial base, and strategic autonomy. These materials have a wide range of applications, contributing to the production of various goods across all supply-chain stages in Europe. The use of CRMs is also essential for the EU’s green transition goals, as these materials are necessary for technologies crucial to the EU’s green and digital transformations. This is particularly true for many technologies that support net-zero carbon emissions goals like wind turbines and electric vehicles. For example, the production of a typical electric car has been estimated to require six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car; an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas-fired plant (International Energy Agency 2022). This surge in demand has led to increased concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities in western countries as many CRMs are concentrated in a small number of countries or are produced as by-products of other mining operations (U.S. Department of Energy 2023). The European Union, recognizing the economic and strategic significance of CRMs, responded by publishing a list of critical raw materials in 2011, updating it every three years to reflect changing economic importance and supply risks (Gislev & Grohol 2018), while the European Commission produced a foresight study of CRMs in 2020 for strategic technologies and sectors in the EU (Bobba et al. 2020). In 2023, the European Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) was adopted, which aims to increase and diversify the EU’s critical raw materials supply, strengthen circularity and recycling efforts, and support research and innovation in resource efficiency and the development of substitutes (European Council 2024).
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Geopolitics, and Critical Raw Materials (CRM)
Political Geography:: Europe

141. Hybrid Threats and the Role of the Far Right

Author:: Daniela Pisoiu
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: On 16 December 2024, the Council of the European Union decided for the first time to sanction a number of individuals and entities as a response to Russian “hybrid activities of various kinds, including the use of coordinated information manipulation and interference.” (Council of the EU 2024) The malicious activities invoked in the decision mainly relate to disinformation and misinformation campaigns in relation to the war in Ukraine but also include espionage and hate crimes such as the deliberate painting of Stars of David on the streets of Paris in October 2023. Russia’s hybrid war against the EU is not limited to misinformation, disinformation and low-level violence, but has also included sabotage and cyberattacks, as documented in detail in the press. The recent incident whereby power and internet cables were cut in the Baltic Sea by an anchor of a Russia-linked tanker (Bockmann 2024; Rasmussen and Kauranen 2025) is only one example. NATO officials estimate that such attacks have reached levels never seen before, along with numerous foiled plots (Clark 2024). In July 2024, two parcel bombs were detonated—one in a DHL plane in Leipzig and another in a warehouse near Birmingham—while several arson attacks were registered in the UK, Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania and Latvia (Kayali et al. 2024). Some officials would go as far as to call these attacks acts of terrorism (ibid.), in what appears to be an all-out war on several fronts. In the background of this strategic situation in Europe, the recent advances of far-right parties in several key EU members become particularly relevant, especially considering their neutral or even positive attitudes towards Russia. While Hungary repeatedly opposed EU sanctions against Russia in the context of its aggression war in Ukraine, far-right parties in Austria and Germany consistently argue for a ‘neutral’ approach towards the war or even against their countries’ support for Ukraine (Hasselbach C. 2024; Lindorfer and Gebhart 2024). Russian overt and covert funding of far-right parties and actors in Europe has been clearly evidenced and analyzed as a tool to undermine liberal democracy in Europe and as “a reward for ideological alignment with Moscow and an incentive to advance Russian interests in the West.” (Datta 2022) Interference in national elections is a particularly effective and worrisome form of Russian hybrid warfare that has already occurred in Europe at least twice last year. According to a press release of the European Parliament in October 2024, Russia conducted a number of destabilizing actions in Moldova in order to influence the national vote through voter fraud schemes, cyberattacks and information warfare. For example, authorities foiled a voter fraud scheme involving “$15 million being transferred to 130,000 Moldovans as part of a voter bribery operation”. (European Parliament, 2024) Interestingly, and in spite of the overwhelming evidence presented, a resolution issuing a warning against Russian interference was met with 53 votes against and 104 abstentions (ibid.). The Romanian presidential election at the end of 2024 was also marked by strong Russian interference, again in support of an anti-EU and pro-Russian actor, this time also with clear far-right tendencies. Presidential candidate Calin Georgescu, having risen from 1% support to first ranked after the first round of presidential elections, publicly praised the Romanian fascist organization Iron Guard—as well as others responsible for assassinations and the systematic killing of Jews during World War II—and openly collaborates with alleged current Iron Guard members (Pro TV 2024). Sociolinguistic analysis furthermore concluded that his discourses heavily rely on the Iron Guard, but also communist rhetoric (Benea 2024). Public statements in relation to the war in Ukraine resemble the tenor of far-right parties in Germany and Austria in terms of advancing a neutral stance towards the war and promoting ‘peace’ (Ardelean 2024). On the background of previous activities in the esoteric scene, other statements advanced various conspiracy, New Age–colored theories, including those concerning a faked moon-landing, the energetic power of the pyramids, and an alternative chemical composition of water (Barbuta 2024). The Romanian presidential elections were canceled by the Constitutional Court after a number of declassified documents showed massive foreign interference through several hybrid tactics, namely cyber-attacks, sabotage, and disinformation, as well as various breaches of electoral legislation (Costita et al. 2024). The tactics used closely resembled the ones employed prior to the elections in Moldova and to the war in Ukraine. For example, according to documents released by the Romanian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia considers Romania as an enemy state that poses a threat through its NATO membership, and which constitutes ‘competition’ for Russia in Moldova. The scope of Russian hostile actions included propaganda and disinformation to affect political and economic preferences, support for anti-EU candidates and anti-establishment movements, affecting trust in national and European institutions, and creating discontent among the population to pressure the government towards changing its stance on the war in Ukraine (ibid.). Romanian presidential elections are scheduled to take place again in May 2025. The parliamentary elections in December 2024 failed to produce a rise of far-right/nationalist parties, which overall scored a little over 20% altogether (Digi24 2024), which seems to indicate the powerful effect of hybrid warfare when carefully orchestrated and funded. In the meantime, the public has been made somewhat aware of the online manipulations on social media, but further hostile actions can be expected in Romania and other EU countries. While initial measures have already been taken to address the Russian hybrid threat, further initiatives are needed to strengthen cooperation with social media platforms and to better adapt political communication strategies of mainstream parties to the particularities of social media platforms in order to limit the reach and effect of extremist messaging.
Topic:: Elections, European Union, Far Right, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Europe and Romania

142. France – U.S. Relationship under Trump 2.0: No Big Drama or Turbo-Charged Confrontation?

Author:: Loïc Simonet
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: In 2018, to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the end of the first World War, Emmanuel Macron, the French President, gifted Donald Trump with a young oak tree from Belleau Wood, where 1,800 American soldiers lost their lives during the first World War. The tree soon died. Macron insisted that no analogies to the Franco-American relationship should be drawn, stating, “It’s no big drama, the symbol was to plant it together.” (RFI, 2019). From Lafayette to Tocqueville, from General de Gaulle to Dominique de Villepin, France and the United States are linked by a long history that goes to the heart of their universalist values. But the relationship has not always been simple; rather “a rich drama with many chapters” (Lightfoot & Bel, 2020, 4). France’s dilemma in 2017 was: “Is Trump a revolutionary actor or a noisy status quo president?” (Lightfoot, 2018, 7). Seven years later, the answer remains uncertain. Unlike many EU members and NATO allies, France views Trump’s foreign policy with a certain détachement and regards it as ‘business as usual’—just as it already felt relatively comfortable with Trump’s America in 2017 (Zajac, 2018), On the morning of 6 November 2024, French President Emmanuel Macron was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the president-elect. The Washington Post’s columnist David Ignatius says he found a “surprising mood of acceptance” in Paris. Joe Biden’s presidency has certainly not been the ‘oasis’ of transatlantic harmony that many naively predicted, between the abrupt and uncoordinated U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the AUKUS humiliation and the Inflation Reduction Act. This might also explain why Benjamin Haddad, France’s Deputy Minister for European Affairs, pragmatically assessed: “We worked with the first Trump administration, and we will work with the second. (…) You have to be emotionally neutral about what’s out of your control” (quoted by Ignatius, 2024). To paraphrase a recent Policy Paper of the Notre Europe Foundation, for France, it is not about the Good (Democrats) or the Bad (Republicans), but just the Ugly (Bertolini & Fabry, 2024). Having said that, Trump’s foreign policy views could hardly be more at odds with France’s current 'global agenda', which emphasizes accelerated green transition, environmental protection initiatives, global finance regulation, and multilateral governance revitalization (Tenenbaum, 2024, 13). Most of these divergences are likely to be turbo-charged during Trump’s second mandate. An opinion poll on 7 November 2024 on “The French and the election of Donald Trump” showed that 62% of French people are worried, with only 12% satisfied. 8 out of 10 French people have a poor image of Donald Trump, including the voters of the far-right Rassemblement National (56%). In both domestic and foreign policy, 85% of French people expect Donald Trump to lead a policy of rupture. 48% of French people think that with the election of Donald Trump, relations between the United States and France will deteriorate, and 44% that they will not change. Only 7% expect relations between the two countries to improve (ELABE, 2024). France, which might well be considered the least ‘Atlanticist’ country in the transatlantic community, with its NATO-skeptic past and its aspiration to European strategic autonomy, has a vested interest in an understanding with Washington. What will it make out of Trump’s victory? A lot will depend on the relationship forged between the two presidents during Trump’s first mandate, since French and American leaders have a long history of using personal diplomacy to reach agreement on divisive issues.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

143. NATO in 2025 and Beyond: Success and Peril Go Hand in Hand

Author:: Emiliano Alessandri
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of an impressive string of achievements, including the recent enlargements to Finland and Sweden, NATO is poised to remain the dominant force in the post-Russian invasion European security landscape. Indeed, NATO’s self-styled description as “the most successful alliance in history” has never seemed more apt. (Stoltenberg, 2024). Yet questions and doubts about NATO’s future are to resurface in 2025, possibly forcefully so: how will the Alliance cope with the return of NATO skeptic Donald Trump to the White House? And will Europe be able to meaningfully step in to compensate for a less Atlantic-oriented America? As the rise of populist nationalism is a key factor behind both America’s returning temptation to go it alone (McConnell, Foreign Affairs, 2025) and the inclination of a growing number of European politicians to define strategic policy in narrow national terms, a crucial test for the coming years is to what extent a shared vision of Euro-Atlantic security is still possible – and what it would look like. The roles and agendas of both NATO and the European Union in the evolving political context remain open questions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Nationalism, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe, Finland, and Sweden

144. The European Union and the Sahel: the day after

Author:: Angela Meyer, Loïc Simonet, and Johannes Späth
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Geopolitics are changing fast in the Sahel. Over the past three years, the region, one of the most impoverished and imperilled of the world, has undergone a dramatic cycle of regime change and alliance shift, which has significantly challenged the strategy and engagement of the European Union (EU) and its member states in the region. Against the background of this severe crisis in EU-Africa relations and growing anti-Western sentiments, new international players are appearing or increasing their influence, such as the Russian Federation, China and Turkey. It is now urgent for the EU to acknowledge the new situation in the Sahel region and rethink its approach. If Europe wants to remain engaged in the region, it should forge a new path guided by day-after policies, with a view to rebuilding trust in the EU as a reliable partner. This Policy Analysis draws on the Panel Discussion held at the oiip on 28 November 2024 on the same topic, in cooperation with the Austrian Federal Ministry of Defence (bmlv). This piece dives into the drivers of the Sahel region’s geopolitical dynamics and critically investigates the shortcomings of the EU’s approach to the region. It concludes with actionable recommendations for recalibrating the EU’s Sahel policy to address past mistakes, prevent further damage, and adapt to the region’s evolving realities.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sahel

145. Harvard Project Releases Second Discussion Brief on Climate-Change and Trade Policy

Author:: Valerie J. Karplus
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Valerie Karplus explores relationships between trade and climate-change policy, with a geographical focus on China, the United States, and Europe. She asks how, “[a]gainst a backdrop of escalating trade tensions and signs of softening climate ambition…we can make progress — or at least minimize backsliding” on climate action. She responds by citing the need for “safe spaces”: “…in trade: could certain key inputs to the green economy be potentially exempted from tariffs, without thwarting the ambitions of protectionist programs?” “…for the emergence and diffusion of decarbonized energy technologies” “…that support infrastructure and systems necessary for decarbonization.” Karplus concludes by “…offering a few ways these safe spaces might be established.”
Topic:: International Relations, Climate Change, Environment, Renewable Energy, Trade Policy, Energy, and Green Industry
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific

146. Decolonisation in the second space age

Author:: Trine Rosengren Pejstrup and Ian Klinke
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The corporate space race is rendering space increasingly 'congested, contested, and competitive'.1 Governments too are upgrading their space capabilities. In Denmark, the new Danish Space Strategy promises a doubling of investment to ensure a Danish space industry that is 'ready for battle'. However, concerns over the environmental and sociopolitical consequences of test launches, extensive satellite programmes and ambitions to establish bases on celestial bodies have sparked growing criticism of a 'colonisation of outer space'. This policy brief reveals a growing political rift over the question of space colonisation.
Topic:: Space, Decolonization, Investment, and Commercialization
Political Geography:: Europe, Denmark, and Space

147. Russian military thinking about the Baltic Sea and the Arctic

Author:: Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Russia is likely to continue its military build-up in both the Baltic Sea and the Arctic in the long-term perspective. Following the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, Russian military thinkers and planners are increasingly seeing the two theatres as contiguous areas.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Finland, Sweden, Arctic, and Baltic Sea

148. Baltic States’ synchronization with the continental grid

Author:: Veronika Slakaityte and Izabela Surwillo
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The disconnection of the Baltic States from the Russian electricity system and their synchronisation with the Continental European Network is a key technological and geopolitical milestone. But safeguarding energy infrastructure remains vital. Operating within a shared electricity grid across multiple countries improves reliability. This arrangement allows transmission system operators (TSOs) to share resources, maintain a steady flow of electricity and handle mismatches between supply and demand more efficiently, helping to lower overall costs and ultimately benefiting consumers. However, geopolitical tensions have turned the Russian electricity system into a strategic paradox: the Baltic States, NATO and EU members are connected to Russia’s electricity dispatch system – a perceived security threat – for grid stability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Infrastructure, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Electricity, and Energy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Baltic States

149. Europe's teenage jihadists

Author:: Dino Krause
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Islamic State (IS)-related terror plots in Western Europe increasingly involve individuals under the age of 18. Central to this trend is IS’s ability to disseminate propaganda online, effectively targeting younger audiences.
Topic:: Radicalization, Internet, Islamic State, Youth, Propaganda, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Europe

150. EU foreign policy in the next political cycle

Author:: Fabrizio Tassinari
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The ‘geopolitical’ Commission of the past five years is to be replaced by a ‘geoeconomic’ discourse in the next political cycle. To enact the hard strategic choices ahead for the next Commission the EU needs to refocus on the normative underpinnings, the instruments of tried-and-tested effectiveness, and on managing expectations. A ‘geophilosophy’ of Europe can be harnessed as a constitutive lens to understand and practice foreign policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, European Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

151. Future-proofing peacekeeping

Author:: Peter Albrecht and Corine van Emmerik
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: As Denmark takes its seat on the Security Council amidst geopolitical tensions and global fragmentation, peacekeeping is confronting an identity crisis. This moment offers Denmark a crucial opportunity to steer discussions on fundamental questions, aligning with its priority to adapt conflict responses and prevention strategies to contemporary challenges. Peacekeeping, historically one of the UN’s most significant and visible conflict management tools, stands at a crossroads. The large, multidimensional flagship mission in Mali was terminated in 2023, and the mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo has wound down, leaving lingering questions about their positive contributions to peace. No new missions, whether large or small, are currently being deployed. Furthermore, Secretary-General António Guterres appears disengaged from discussions on the future of peacekeeping, reflecting broader uncertainty about its relevance in today’s conflict landscape, and consensus among Security Council members is becoming increasingly elusive. With the background context of ongoing geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, there is a perception that peacekeeping missions deployed, supported, and/or mandated by the UN are becoming obsolete in addressing the evolving nature of modern conflicts.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Geopolitics, UN Security Council, and Future
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

152. Norway’s vaccine diplomacy during Covid-19

Author:: Emma Sandvik Ling
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: How did Nordic countries manage the tensions and ethical dilemmas of national health security and international solidarity during the Covid-19 vaccine response? This DIIS working paper examines Norway’s Covid-19 vaccine procurement and distribution strategy within the framework of the SCANVAX project on Nordic vaccine diplomacy. The study analyses how Norway worked to procure Covid-19 vaccines to cover the needs of the Norwegian people as well as how Norway engaged in the global pandemic response and efforts to ensure global vaccine distribution. The working paper also examines how tensions between national health security and international solidarity was navigated in public discourse during the pandemic. The case demonstrates how a small non-EU state managed pandemic responses through complex diplomatic arrangements while balancing domestic needs with global solidarity commitments. The working paper is part of the project Strategic solidarity: Scandinavian countries' Covid-19 vaccine diplomacy (SCANVAX) that explores the significant tension between national, regional and international vaccine solidarity during Covid-19 and asks how the dominant policy goal of securing vaccines in the interest of national health security was intertwined with global health security and broader foreign policy objectives, whether related to international solidarity, diplomatic influence, or geopolitical interests. SCANVAX is financed by NordForsk under the Nordic Council of Ministers and implemented by a consortium of researchers from the University of Oslo, Lund University and DIIS.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, COVID-19, and Vaccine Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Europe and Norway

153. Denmark’s vaccine diplomacy during Covid-19

Author:: Adam Moe Fejerskov and David Lyndorff Paris
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: How did Nordic countries manage the tensions and ethical dilemmas of national health security and international solidarity during the Covid-19 vaccine response? This DIIS working paper examines Denmark's Covid-19 vaccine procurement and distribution strategy within the framework of the SCANVAX project on Nordic vaccine diplomacy. The Danish case shows the complexities of how a small European state managed pandemic responses through multilateral frameworks while pursuing national interests, highlighting persistent tensions between vaccine nationalism and global health solidarity during health crises. Denmark's experience illustrates the multifaceted realities of vaccine diplomacy, where even countries with strong international development commitments prioritise domestic health security when faced with uncertain vaccine supplies, while simultaneously using surplus vaccines as tools for broader foreign policy objectives. The working paper is part of the project Strategic solidarity: Scandinavian countries' Covid-19 vaccine diplomacy (SCANVAX) that explores the significant tension between national, regional and international vaccine solidarity during Covid-19 and asks how the dominant policy goal of securing vaccines in the interest of national health security was intertwined with global health security and broader foreign policy objectives, whether related to international solidarity, diplomatic influence, or geopolitical interests. SCANVAX is financed by NordForsk under the Nordic Council of Ministers and implemented by a consortium of researchers from the University of Oslo, Lund University and DIIS.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Vaccine, COVID-19, Development Policy, and Vaccine Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

154. Three opportunities for expanding Danish 'Techplomacy'

Author:: Kristin Anabel Eggeling
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: As governments around the world struggle with the international dimensions of digital transformation, Denmark has been at the forefront with its pioneering ‘techplomacy’ strategy. Now, it has the opportunity to enhance this approach through discursive, geographic and sectoral expansion. The term ‘techplomacy’ merges technology and diplomacy. Since 2017 the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has appointed three ‘tech ambassadors’; opened and developed three ‘tech embassies’ in Palo Alto, Beijing and Copenhagen; and published two dedicated ‘tech diplomacy’ strategies in 2021 and 2024. Thanks to these efforts, Denmark has become widely regarded as a diplomatic pioneer in this field, not least by the large number of states that have begun to follow the Danish model.1 In light of considerable geopolitical changes since the publication of the most recent strategy in May 2024,2 the Ministry could expand these efforts in three ways. First, discursively – by fostering more inclusive global narratives and highlighting the democratic benefits of digital regulation; second, geographically – by extending its virtual reach and physical presence to other global hubs of technology development; and third sectorally – by investing in new forms of cross-sectoral diplomacy that focus on collaboration with key sites of research and development and major technology companies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

155. Beyond Access: Towards productive inclusion in the era of fintech

Author:: Marie Kolling, Kevin Donovan, and Adam Moe Fejerskov
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: New DIIS publication compels financial inclusion discussions to move beyond access to ensure inclusion improves economic well-being for low-income populations. It underscores the linked nature of household and sovereign debt, arguing that both must be addressed to advance global prosperity
Topic:: Science and Technology, Finance, Inclusion, and Well-Being
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

156. Denmark needs to rethink its multilateral engagement

Author:: Rens van Munster and Corine van Emmerik
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Uncertainty about NATO’s future and American commitment to European security is challenging the foundations of Danish foreign and security policy. Denmark must face this new reality and strengthen its commitment to multilateralism as central to its long-term security and influence. Denmark’s 2023 foreign policy strategy acknowledges that ‘the rule-based world order and multilateralism are under pressure’ – a stark reality for a small state whose security and prosperity fundamentally depend on international rules. Intensified geopolitical competition, rival visions of global governance, and the erosion of consensus on international security norms have plunged multilateralism into a full-blown crisis, placing Denmark – like many countries – in an increasingly difficult position.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Europe and Denmark

157. European Shift: The Path Toward Palestinian State Recognition

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Western and European announcements regarding intentions to recognize a Palestinian state in September 2025 have accelerated, coinciding with the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting. These developments emerge amid intensifying criticism of Israeli positions in both Western media and social platforms, creating mounting domestic pressure on European governments to adopt clearer stances.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Palestinians, UN General Assembly, and Recognition
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

158. A Turning Point, or Not? Principles for a New European Order

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Despite repeated declarations of historic turning points, deep structural reforms to the European project remain elusive. While defense spending rises are welcome, EU governments must also pursue systemic changes to Europe’s political and security architecture.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Politics, Reform, European Union, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

159. Nuclear NATO: How to make it credible and efficient

Author:: Karl-Heinz Kamp
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: NATO’s nuclear deterrence is not suffi ciently prepared for the evolving strategic environment in Europe and beyond. The current Strategic Concept does not defi ne which steps are needed to maintain nuclear deterrence’s eff ectiveness and credibility. To adapt nuclear deterrence to today’s requirements, NATO must fi rst and foremost agree on a new nuclear strategy document.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Europe

160. Through Protest to Reform: Euromaidan and Decentralization in Ukraine (10/03/2025)

Author:: Anastasiia Vlasenko and Petro Jacyk
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: What happens when mass protests don’t just demand change, but actually reshape the way power works on the ground? This talk dives into that question through the story of Ukraine’s Euromaidan movement and the sweeping decentralization reform that followed. In the wake of Euromaidan, Ukraine undertook one of its most ambitious transformations: transferring authority, budgets, and decision-making from the central government to local communities. But here is the twist: different places embraced this reform at very different speeds. Why? And what did protest have to do with it? Drawing on rich local-level data, this study uncovers a fascinating paradox: communities touched by protest often moved more slowly to adopt decentralization. However, once they did, they used it more effectively. The protest areas developed polycentric, multivoice decision-making structures that made early reform harder, but later implementation stronger, more competitive, and more participatory. From budget battles to e-democracy initiatives, this research shows how protest can leave behind more than memories. It can build the skills, networks, and civic muscle needed to turn reforms into real functioning democracy. Whether you are interested in Ukrainian politics, the afterlife of protest movements, or the mechanics of grassroots democracy, this talk offers fresh insight into how collective action can rewrite the rules of governance from the bottom up.
Topic:: Governance, Reform, Protests, Decentralization, and Euromaidan Revolution
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

161. Reclaiming Trust: Inga Springe on the Role of Independent Media in the Baltics

Author:: Masha Udensiva-Brenner and Inga Springe
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Harriman Magazine editor Masha Udensiva-Brenner interviews Latvian investigative journalist Inga Springe of Re:Baltica about the rise and fall of the newspaper Diena, Latvia's journey to join NATO and the EU, and how investigative journalism addresses corruption and Russian influence in the Baltic region.
Topic:: NATO, Corruption, European Union, Media, Journalism, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, Latvia, and Baltic States

162. Identifying Mutual Interests: How Donor Countries Benefit from Foreign Aid

Author:: Tobias Heidland, Maximilian Michael, Moritz Schularick, and Rainer Thiele
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Official development assistance (ODA) is widely studied for its impact on recipient countries, but its effects on donor countries remain underexplored. To address this gap systematically, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding when foreign aid generates measurable returns for donor countries as well as those cases when donor and recipient interests align—what we term mutual interest ODA. We categorize potential donor benefits into three domains: economic, geopolitical, and security-related, and distinguish these benefits by their timing and degree of directness. We then systematically survey the empirical evidence on donor benefits, assessing the empirical credibility and magnitude of estimated effects and pointing out research gaps. We find consistent evidence of substantial donor benefits across all three domains. A key insight is that aggregate aid flows often mask significant variation: The returns to donors depend critically on the type of aid, delivery modality, and recipient context. These findings have important implications for both academic and policy debates on the effectiveness, political sustainability, and future direction of development aid.
Topic:: Climate Change, Globalization, Health, International Trade and Finance, Migration, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, and Americas

163. To Err Twice: Methodological Pluralism Through the Lens of EU Prison Policy

Author:: Christos Papachristopoulos and Denise Di Nica
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Utilizing the tension between EU and prisons as case study, this article argues for the necessity of a multidisciplinary EU methodological framework. To address the threat of cross-border criminality, the legal principle of mutual trust has been placed at the core of EU judicial cooperation mechanisms. Mutual trust translates to the presumption of equivalent rights protection, a presumption extending to detention, and on the basis of legal standards comprising the pan-EU penal imaginary. Yet, in light of disparate and inadequate detention regimes, mutual trust proves legal fiction. Consequently, and by ignoring the operation of law in action, the Union has exposed itself to the challenge of regulating and effectively enforcing individual standards in prison. To this end, following a doctrinal approach, EU scholars and institutions advocate for further harmonization of detention at EU level. This article argues that such a motion suffers two methodological shortcomings. Firstly, EU scholarship overly underscores the legal dimension of the issue, too readily framing the problematic situation of detention as a legal problem to be redressed via legislative recourse. Secondly, calls for legal harmonization underestimate the political nature of law as policy, and the perils of perceived (horizontal or vertical) illegitimacy of any legally binding intervention. Framing its enquiry by reference to the question posed in this special issue, the article concludes that, while black-letter research in EU law remains essential, novel challenges and idiosyncrasies of the acquis communautaire demand an evolved methodological toolbox, to better reflect the inherent interdisciplinarity of prison policy in the AFSJ.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Law Enforcement, Law, Prisons/Penal Systems, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe

164. Regulating Uncertainty: On the Regulation of Human Behavior and its Interpretation by the Court of Justice of the European Union

Author:: Sebastian J. Kasper
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: More often than not, laws are meant to regulate human behavior. However, human beings’ reactions to such regulations are to a large degree uncertain and one can only try to predict them. In that regard, the neighboring field of behavioral economics might provide relevant and necessary insights for effective regulation. However, the Court of Justice of the European Union might, should, or ought to rely on such findings when interpreting European Union (EU) secondary law, to give such rules the most effective meaning by limiting possible infringements on individuals’ fundamental rights. Built on an assessment of the Market in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II), as part of European capital markets law, and with references to consumer protection law, the Taxonomy Regulation, and other European legal acts, this paper, first of all, demonstrates that not only the European legislator but also the Court can, in most situations, rely on behavioral economic findings. Although human behavior as well as results stemming from experimental research are to a certain degree uncertain, concepts developed in behavioral economics describe human behavior better than concepts implying (fully) rational behavior. In addition, obstacles – stemming from both the field of behavioral economics and legal methodology – that arise when applying these experimental findings to interpreting EU secondary law will be summarized and ideas to counter those obstacles are presented. The overall objective of this paper is to further a discussion on how to best incorporate findings from the field of behavioral economics into legal methodology. For this, the paper references, among others, European capital markets law but strives to abstract and generalize key aspects to facilitate a broader reception and discussion.
Topic:: Law, European Union, Behavior, and Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU)
Political Geography:: Europe

165. Arbitral Jurisdiction in Crimea Investment Disputes: Connecting the Dots

Author:: Petro Halimurka
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Under normal circumstances, bilateral investment treaties (BIT) are designed to promote the mutual enhancement of investment climate and to guarantee that foreign investors are treated no worse than investors of host and third States. In many respects, maintaining such relations is believed to reflect economic globalization and the increasingly widespread acceptance of such legal standards as non-discrimination and of striking a balance between national and private foreign interests. Practice shows, however, that the equilibrium of an investment treaty regime can sometimes be disturbed by a chain of actions governed by a field of law with a purpose of a completely different nature, such as the law of armed conflict. Such an interaction can be observed in relations between Russia and certain Ukrainian investors. Following the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, a number of investors, some of whose assets were based in Crimea, commenced investment arbitration proceedings in an attempt to recover some of their rights and interests. This article examines the jurisdictional practice of these arbitral tribunals, along with a critical analysis of the relevant provisions of the Ukraine-Russia BIT, as well as other norms of international law operative in relations developed.
Topic:: International Law, Investment, Arbitration, Jurisdiction, and Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT)
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea

166. Adding to the Toolbox: Court Published ‘Fact Sheets’ in the EU Legal Order

Author:: Mareike Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Issued by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), fact sheets act as communication tool within the EU legal landscape, serving as informative summaries of key jurisprudence on selected topics. They raise intriguing questions about institutional responsibilities and the broader implications for dissemination of information by courts. By combining traditional legal analysis with empirical insights, this study investigates the regulatory framework governing court-issued fact sheets and evaluates their classification as a form of “soft law.” The article argues that while fact sheets enhance transparency and reduce information asymmetries, they must balance their informational role with the neutrality and core adjudicatory functions of the CJEU. The research highlights both the potential of these documents to support judicial efficiency and informed discourse, as well as areas where refinement could bolster their reliability and effectiveness in the evolving landscape of EU legal communication.
Topic:: European Union, Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU), Law, and Communications
Political Geography:: Europe

167. The Montreux Convention and its Importance for International Peace and Security

Author:: Ioannis Antonopoulos
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: Since its conclusion, the Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the Straits (1936) constitutes an important pillar of the international order. This may be proven by many historical events from the 20th century until today: From the application of the Convention in WWII to its recent invocation in the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. The Convention’s significance derives from its subject-matter, the freedom of transit through the Dardanelles/Turkish Straits in regard to the warships and aircraft in time of peace and in time of war. This is a legal analysis of the Montreux Convention under the scope of International Law providing a brief look at the historical background of events that have led to the signature of the Convention, an extensive presentation of the legal framework of its provisions regarding passage of warships and overflight of aircraft, as well as, some thoughts on its importance for the international peace and security.
Topic:: Security, International Law, History, Peace, International Order, and Montreux Convention
Political Geography:: Europe

168. Minerals diplomacy as geoeconomic statecraft: Implications for resource security priorities in a rapidly changing world

Author:: Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Critical raw materials (CRMs) and rare earth elements (REEs) are essential for defence, emerging technologies, and the energy transition. However, supply chains remain highly concentrated, with China dominating much of the refining and processing. Asymmetries and choke points highlight the need to control these resources. Minerals diplomacy has become a central tool for geoeconomic actors, including the US and the EU, to secure CRMs and REEs, often through deals with resource-holding third countries. This creates new partnerships while heightening competition to bind third-party countries, which, in turn, seek to assert their agency. Minerals diplomacy blends cooperative, coercive, and binding elements, as governments combine bargaining, leverage, and deals to maintain access to critical resources. States are also deploying creative solutions, such as recycling and reusing mining waste, to reduce external dependencies and enable more self-reliant systems, but this requires effective public-private cooperation. The intensifying contest for CRMs and REEs exposes governance gaps. Accounting for local perspectives, establishing stronger international oversight and global benchmarks, and ensuring equitable outcomes could ease competition, give third-party countries a greater voice, and serve as a tool of geoeconomic soft power.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economy, Trade, Supply Chains, Minerals, Energy, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

169. Global development in crisis: Responding to America’s retreat

Author:: Sarah S. Stroup
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: A definitive shift in both resources and rhetoric has upended the global development sector. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the policies of the new US administration, although many European states had already started reducing foreign aid budgets earlier. Beyond its vicious rhetoric and wrecking-ball approach, the Trump administration’s arguments echo three long-standing critiques that development professionals have made themselves. Development experts in the US and Europe argue that development goals have become too broad, aid has failed to reach local actors, and the sector is too technocratic and removed from the concerns of Northern publics. A renewed focus on poverty reduction, combined with power-sharing abroad and public engagement at home, may provide answers to these critiques. Achieving development outcomes may require focusing less on providing direct assistance and more on reducing the harms created by Western states in other arenas, including trade and finance.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, and Budget
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

170. Algeria and France: Back to the Future?

Author:: Daniel Zisenwine
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:: In this latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Daniel Zisenwine examines the recent escalating tension between Algeria and France over past and present grievances.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Algeria, North Africa, and Western Sahara

171. Relaciones de España con Marruecos y Argelia y consecuencias para Ceuta y Melilla

Author:: Carlos Echeverría Jesús
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Morocco claims territories belonging to Spain and Algeria. Ceuta, Melilla, the Vélez de la Gomera and Alhucemas Rocks and the Chafarinas islands, from Spain, and the so-called Eastern Sahara from Algeria. Morocco considers that the Kingdom suffers a “territorial deficit”, and this perception remains today and will remain in the future as an obstacle for the consolidation of stable relations in the region.
Topic:: Regional Politics, Foreign Policy, Territory, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:: Morocco, Spain, Europe, and North Africa

172. Securitization Theory Insights on the Formation of an EU Army

Author:: Iva Zutic
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the narrative securitized by Eurofederalists in support of establishing an EU army. The main objective is to identify and categorize the assertions employed by securitizing actors in their speech acts, examined through the framework of securitization theory. To assess the impact of this securitized narrative, the study evaluates its reception among the EU public before and after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The research reveals that securitizing actors cluster their assertions around four advantages: strategic, political, societal, and economic. Furthermore, the findings indicate that by framing these advantages within their narrative, securitizing actors have successfully influenced public opinion in the EU to favor the establishment of an EU army.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Public Opinion, European Union, Economy, Army, Securitization, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe

173. From Glasnost to Crackdown: Ann Cooper on Covering the Fall of the USSR and What Came After

Author:: Masha Udensiva-Brenner and Ann Cooper
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Harriman Magazine editor Masha Udensiva-Brenner interviews editor-in-chief Ann Cooper about her experiences covering the end of the Soviet Union for NPR; how we might reframe that period; and some of the articles in the 2025 issue of Harriman Magazine.
Topic:: History, Journalism, Soviet Union, National Public Radio (NPR), and Glasnost
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, and Soviet Union

174. The Showman: An Interview With President Zelensky’s Wartime Biographer

Author:: Simon Shuster
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: The Harriman Institute
Abstract:: Time Magazine Senior Correspondent Simon Shuster discusses his book on Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky and the first year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine; the current state of affairs; and some of the historical context that brought us here.
Topic:: Journalism, Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia-Ukraine War, and History
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

175. The Weaponization of Energy Resources: Fossil Fuels as Instruments of Geopolitical Leverage in the EU–Russia Context

Author:: Nataliia Khoma and Maiia Nikolaieva
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper examines how energy functions as a strategic instrument of geopolitical coercion, focusing on Russia’s prolonged weaponization of natural gas and the European Union’s evolving response. Building on Soviet-era infrastructure, Moscow has employed price increases, supply cuts, and control of pipelines to pressure states. At the same time, the EU has countered with sanctions, diversification of suppliers, and accelerated investment in renewable energy. For more than fifty years, energy has served as leverage that blurs the boundary between economics and security, imposing heavy economic and political costs on both producers and consumers. Interdependence amplifies these vulnerabilities, allowing energy to operate as a “weapon” on both supply and demand sides. Although the EU plans to end Russian gas imports by 2027, Moscow’s continuing circumvention efforts demonstrate that energy remains a critical tool of power and national security worldwide.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Fossil Fuels, Energy, Russia-Ukraine War, and Weaponization
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

176. Protecting Fundamental Freedoms and Promoting Gender Equality: The Case for Binding Quotas on Macedonian Corporate Boards

Author:: Emilija Gjorgjioska, Margarita Janeska, Tatjana Spaseska, and Aneta Risteska Jankuloska
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes gender balance on the boards of companies listed on the Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE). Despite formal equality, statistics reveal persistent vertical segregation in top management. A comparative assessment places North Macedonia favorably within the Western Balkans and the European Union; however, further progress is still needed. Adopting a legal gender quota, as outlined in Directive (EU) 2022/238, would help close the gap, fulfill obligations under CEDAW, and reinforce the country’s commitment to the United Nations’ fifth Sustainable Development Goal on gender equality, ensuring that fundamental freedoms, gender balance, and equal remuneration are upheld in practice rather than merely acknowledged.
Topic:: European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, Corporations, Gender Equality, and Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE)
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and North Macedonia

177. Accessing Foreign Policy Information in the Digital Age: Evidence from Greece

Author:: Péter Kacziba
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The digitalization of governance and media has increased the visibility and accessibility of foreign policy, reshaping how citizens engage with international affairs. However, limited research exists on how digital platforms influence the way foreign policy information is accessed and evaluated in specific national contexts. This study addresses this gap by examining the case of Greece. Drawing on a nationwide online survey conducted in February 2024 (N = 800), this analysis investigates citizens’ source preferences, perceptions of credibility, and engagement patterns across socio-demographic groups. The findings reveal that digital platforms have emerged as the dominant sources of foreign policy information. Nevertheless, traditional dynamics of political polarization, selective trust, and fragmented media consumption remain prevalent. These results underscore the constraints of digitalization in expanding democratic participation and highlight the need for foreign policy research and practice to pay greater attention to public opinion and societal dynamics.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Democracy, Media, Polarization, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

178. Freedom and Personal Autonomy as the Foundation of Private International Law and the Cornerstone of Individual Rights in the AI Era

Author:: Antoni Abat i Ninet
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: An examination of private international law manuals and relevant legislation demonstrates that the autonomy of the will constitutes a fundamental epistemological principle underpinning the field. However, this freedom is neither absolute nor unbounded. The binding force of pacta sunt servanda, the limitations imposed by public law, the operation of mandatory rules (lois de police), the demands of public policy (ordre public), and the necessity of protecting weaker parties all constrain its exercise. In contemporary private international law, the principle has evolved into a pervasive and dynamic norm, deeply embedded in legal practice while continuously adapting to new challenges. In the emerging era of artificial intelligence, the autonomy of the will must be reaffirmed as a cornerstone of individual rights, ensuring the preservation of personal freedom amidst technological transformations.
Topic:: International Law, European Union, Artificial Intelligence, Autonomy, Freedom, Immanuel Kant, and Individual Rights
Political Geography:: Europe

179. Artificial Intelligence and Politics: Legal Dilemmas and Risks to Democracy

Author:: Daniele Battista and Gabriele Uva
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The rapid progress of AI has raised questions about its political, ethical, and legal impact, particularly regarding institutional transparency and citizens’ privacy. This study examined the implications of AI in European politics, evaluating whether it enhances democracy or fosters algorithmic manipulations that contravene ethical and legal norms. Adopting a deductive approach, it examined narratives, scenarios, and expectations regarding the use of AI in decision-making and governance mechanisms. The aim was to offer a critical perspective on the dynamics at play, highlighting the risks, opportunities, and legal protections available. The study contributed to the academic debate on the ethical and regulatory implications of AI in governance, providing insights for future regulation and public policy.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Democracy, Ethics, Privacy, Artificial Intelligence, Data, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Europe

180. Constitutionalizing the Environment in 21st Century Europe: Innovations for Greener Constitutions

Author:: Goce Kocevski
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes and systematizes innovations in the constitutional entrenchment of environmental protection provisions, moving beyond the mere recognition of the right to a healthy environment or the affirmation of general policy declarations. Using the comparative constitutional method, it examines relevant provisions in the constitutions of France, Montenegro, Hungary, Austria, and Slovenia. The findings reveal significant diversity in the scope and manner of environmental constitutionalization, contrasting with the similarities observed among constitutions adopted in the 1990s. Identified approaches include the integration of environmental law principles, the constitutional recognition of procedural environmental rights, and the establishment of institutions dedicated to environmental protection. These constitutional innovations demonstrate significant potential for broader adoption, thereby strengthening frameworks for environmental protection and enhancing the safeguarding of human rights and liberties.
Topic:: Environment, Human Rights, Constitution, Innovation, and Amendment
Political Geography:: Europe

181. Libertarian Perspectives on Social Change: The Overton Window and the Role of the State in Macedonian Society

Author:: Nikola Lj. Ilievski
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes public opinion on the state’s role in Macedonian society. The Ideological Carreau and the Overton Window of Political Possibilities frameworks visually represent the findings. The primary objective was to develop a reliable tool for measuring public attitudes and monitoring potential shifts in political culture. To gather the necessary data, an online political quiz was created. The responses were analyzed using arithmetic means to determine public opinion’s central tendencies and position them within the Ideological Carreau. The analysis revealed that public attitudes toward the state’s role predominantly align with the conceptual model of the liberal democratic state and the ideological orientation of modern liberalism.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Ideology, State, Liberalism, Libertarianism, Social Change, and Overton Window
Political Geography:: Europe and North Macedonia

182. Criminal Dimensions of Forced Sterilization of Romani Women: A Focus on Gender-Based Violence and Deprivation of Liberty

Author:: Olga Koshevaliska and Roze Surlovska Ristevska
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This paper examines the forced sterilization of Romani women as a serious violation of human rights and a fundamental denial of personal liberty. Drawing on legal, sociological, and feminist frameworks, the analysis demonstrates how this practice reflects intersecting forms of racial and gender-based discrimination within healthcare systems and state institutions. Romani women in vulnerable socio-economic circumstances have been systematically denied autonomy over their reproductive choices, highlighting broader patterns of structural exclusion. The findings emphasize the need to address forced sterilization not only as a criminal offense but also as a form of institutionalized violence that requires urgent legal, policy, and institutional reforms to protect personal liberty and advance reproductive justice.
Topic:: Women, Gender Based Violence, Roma, Discrimination, Systemic Racism, Liberty, Antigypsyism, and Forced Sterilization
Political Geography:: Europe

183. The Portrayal of Religious Freedom in Media Discourse: Evidence from Kosovo

Author:: Ilmije Kuqi and Lulzim Esati
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: This study examines how religious freedom is portrayed in Kosovo’s media and how citizens perceive related tolerance and hate speech. A quantitative survey (N = 150) was conducted from March to April 2025 across six regions using simple random sampling. While 90% of respondents affirmed that religious freedom exists in Kosovo, only 35% rated media coverage as very good or excellent. Sixty percent believed Muslims receive the most media attention, and half noted that ethical standards in religious reporting are only partially upheld. The findings reveal a gap between the legal guarantee of religious freedom and its representation in the media, with negative narratives and online hate speech undermining democratic values and social cohesion in post-conflict Kosovo.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Media, Hate Speech, Social Cohesion, Society, Freedom of Religion, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans

184. LNG Projects Are a Bad Deal for Germans and Americans

Author:: Milena Pressentin, Josefin Schmidt, and Julian Schwartzkopff
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Subsidizing fossil gas, especially long-term contracts for liquefied natural gas (LNG), undermines Germany’s energy independence, national security, public health, and climate goals, while also raising energy prices and pollution for Americans. On the other hand, accelerating the deployment of affordable and cleaner technologies across sectors could lower costs and pollution.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Trade, Donald Trump, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

185. Bitter Pill for Brussels? Trump’s Fight with Irish Pharma

Author:: Oskar Fairbairn, Lena Fiedler, and Aoife Hanley
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Around 60% of Irish net exports to US are pharma products. Charging a 200% US tariff would devastate all EU exports, not just Ireland’s. Still, business leaders in Ireland are confident that pharma’s competitiveness will help it survive.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Multinational Corporations, Exports, Trade, and Pharmaceuticals
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, Ireland, and United States of America

186. Rethinking Aid in a Contested World

Author:: Stefan Dercon
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Development aid faces a crisis of budgets, legitimacy, and political alignment. Framed in recent decades as technocratic and benevolent, aid has always been political, shaped by donor and recipient incentives. Its post–Cold War expansion reflected a permissive era of unipolarity and globalization, when Western foreign policy, business, and security establishments provided broad support. That equilibrium has now collapsed. Multipolar rivalry, protectionism, and fragmented domestic coalitions have left aid vulnerable, shallowly supported, and increasingly driven by narrow donor interests. The paper calls for recognition of the need for a globalization 2.0 that enables poorer countries to grow, warning that without such a framework, remaining aid will become more fragmented and ineffective. It also cautions against a euphemistic reliance on “mutual interest,” as evidence of genuine donor–recipient benefits is limited; trade facilitation and post-conflict stabilization are rare exceptions. Finally, the paper advances four propositions: aid must be selective, avoid entrenching dependency, balance short-term results with long-term system building, and support reformers willing to challenge the status quo. Only by acknowledging its political nature and aligning incentives within a reconfigured global order can aid remain relevant to development.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, South America, and North America

187. How to scale up effective international climate finance by the EU? Tax coalitions and jurisdictional reward funds for the case of fossil fuel

Author:: Ottmar Edenhofer, Matthias Kalkuhl, and Lennart Stern
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper examines how donor countries can be motivated by self-interest to fund emission reductions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While not solving the broader climate cooperation problem, we propose pragmatic measures that do not require global consensus on future climate risks or binding commitments. We quantify the unilateral benefits for donors—reduced climate damages and improved terms-of-trade from lower fossil fuel prices—resulting from financing fossil fuel demand reductions. To address project-level finance inefficiencies, we introduce jurisdictional reward funds targeting governments, which also generate implicit wealth transfers to LMICs. A self-enforcing coalition of fossil fuel importers, such as the European Union and China, could mobilize USD 66 billion annually for mitigation in LMICs, cutting emissions by 1060 Mt CO₂ per year and transferring USD 33 billion per year. LMICs additionally benefit from USD 78 billion in reduced climate damages and USD 19 billion from lower fuel prices. We explore coalition stability, geopolitical considerations, and how broader tax and reward mechanisms could further improve global climate, forest, and health outcomes.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Tax Systems, Trade, Fossil Fuels, and Public Goods
Political Geography:: Europe

188. Transatlantic Ties beyond Goods Trade: Significance and Policy Implications of EU-U.S. Services Trade

Author:: Frank Bickenbach, Holger Görg, and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Trade in services is an important component of international trade and is becoming increasingly more important with growth rates exceeding the rates with which goods trade increases. This is also true in the bilateral U.S. – EU relationship: Trade in services, and especially trade in digitally deliverable services, is a highly important element of the economic relations between the U.S. and the EU. And it is growing much faster than goods trade between the two economies. Despite its importance, trade in services has received much less attention in political and public discussions on the transatlantic trade relationship – even beyond the current narrow focus on the U.S. goods trade deficit. Against this background this policy brief attempts to explore major developing trends over time in EU-U.S. services trade in general and EU-U.S. trade in digitally deliverable services in particular. In addition to services trade, we analyze the development of services supplied by affiliates of U.S. multinationals in the EU and of those supplied by EU affiliates in the U.S. We provide policy suggestions based on data-driven insights derived from the analysis.
Topic:: Globalization, European Union, Services, Trade, Digitalization, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

189. Hard to Learn for the Future? Field Evidence from a Digital– Green Classroom Pilot Shows No Gains and Lower Enjoyment

Author:: Leonie Dworsky, David Pipke, and Juliet Tschank
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We evaluate Raise-Up, a pilot in two Turin-area vocational schools that integrated project-based learning on digitization and the green transition into the regular curriculum. Using a difference-indifferences design on three survey waves, we find no positive effects on any pre-registered outcomes, including aspirations, motivation, competencies, preferences, and socio-emotional engagement. The only significant effect is negative: treated students report lower school enjoyment (−0.39σ), plausibly from higher workload. Impacts are more adverse for females, reducing self-confidence and perceived job knowledge, with no socio-economic differences. Post-program feedback aligns with these results, suggesting limited benefits and potential unintended costs.
Topic:: Education, Digital Economy, Labor Market, Skills, Green Economy, and Behavioral Economics
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

190. Who Pays for Higher Energy Costs? Distributional Effects in the Housing Market

Author:: Francisco Amaral and Steffen Zetzmann
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We examine how rising energy costs affect rental housing markets and inequality. Using listing data for the 30 largest German cities from 2015–2024, we find that higher energy prices are passed through to net rents in high-rent segments, where inefficient properties see significant rent reductions, but not in lower-priced segments. This asymmetry reflects tighter markets and lower demand elasticity in the affordable segment. Consequently, low-income households face much larger increases in total housing costs. Our results show how segmented housing markets can amplify inequality when energy prices rise, highlighting important distributional implications for climate policy.
Topic:: Climate Change, Real Estate, Energy, Housing Market, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

191. The Geopolitical Externality of Climate Policy

Author:: Timothé Beaufíls, Killian Conyngham, Maríene de Vries, Michael Jakob, and Matthias Kalkuhl
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper formalizes the geopolitical externality of climate policy and estimates its plausible magnitudes. Specifically, domestic reductions in fossil fuel demand depress global prices, thereby lowering export revenues for resource-rich autocracies – many of which allocate substantial resources to military spending. As a result, climate policy reduces geopolitical and security burdens on Western democracies, offering a potential “peace dividend” as a cobenefit. Exploiting the link between the European Union’s oil consumption and the EU’s costs of the Russian war in Ukraine as a case study, we highlight the relevance of this externality. We estimate that each euro spent on oil in the EU generates geopolitical costs of 0.37 [0.01 - 4.7] euros related to Russia’s war on Ukraine. Based on our central estimate, a carbon price of 62 euros per ton of CO2 would be required to internalize these costs. Even under conservative assumptions, our analysis highlights that the geopolitical externality offers a compelling argument for strong unilateral efforts to reduce fossil fuel demand in the EU.
Topic:: Climate Change, War, European Union, Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

192. Shocking a CEO: Economic disintegration and executive compensation in manufacturing and services firms

Author:: Merchan Federico and Holger Görg
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper uses the Brexit referendum in 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment to estimate the effect of an exogenous negative shock to globalization on executive compensation for German companies listed in the DAX and MDAX stock indices. We show that it matters whether they work for firms exporting goods or services. The main results indicate that executive compensation in firms operating in sectors that export services was negatively affected, in particular through lower variable compensation. On the contrary, executives of firms that operate in sectors exporting goods were not negatively affected overall, though they experienced a compositional change (from bonuses to equity payments). Sectoral regressions suggest that manufacturing firms redirected successfully exports from the UK to other relevant trade partners, while this was not the case in the service sector.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Brexit, and Services
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and Germany

193. The Security Dividend of Climate Policy

Author:: Timothé Beaufíls, Michael Jakob, and Matthias Kalkuhl
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia’s financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. A one-euro reduction in oil consumption in the EU results in a security dividend of 37 cents (central estimate). Based on the security dividend alone, a significant carbon price (central estimate of 60 euros per ton of CO2) on oil consumption is justified – in addition to its climate, terms-of-trade, and local health benefits. Ambitious EU climate policy that reduces demand for oil and natural gas should be seen as an important pillar of the European security architecture, complementing military spending, diplomatic efforts, and continued support to Ukraine.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

194. Spatial distribution of housing liquidity

Author:: Francisco Amaral, Mark Toth, and Jonas Zdrzalek
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper examines the relationship between location, liquidity, and prices in housing markets. We construct spatial datasets for German and U.S. cities and show that liquidity and prices decline with distance to the city center. To rationalize these results, we build a structural model with spatial search frictions. We argue that location preferences concentrate buyers in central areas, making markets tighter, more liquid, and driving up prices. Counterfactuals show that suppressing search frictions raises welfare and prices, especially in peripheral areas. Our findings highlight the importance of demand-side preferences and search frictions for understanding liquidity and asset prices.
Topic:: Economics, Financial Markets, Cities, Housing, Real Estate, Liquidity, and Assets
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

195. The consequences of the Trump trade war for Europe

Author:: Julian Hinz, Isabelle Mejean, and Moritz Schularick
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • Using the KITE model suite, we study the economic costs of the Trump tariff policy for Europe, and analyze the potential for trade diversion from China. • If the current tariff regime stays in place, trade between the U.S. and China would fall dramatically, hurting mainly the U.S. and the Chinese economies. The direct economic impact for Europe appears limited. • The expected rerouting of Chinese and U.S. exports to third countries is likely to intensify competition between European and Chinese producers in key markets. European consumersstand to benefit from lower prices.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: China, Europe, North America, and United States of America

196. Ukraine Aid: How Europe Can Replace US Support

Author:: Giuseppe Irto, Ivan Kharitonov, Taro Nishikawa, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: We study how Europe could replace US support for Ukraine both (i) financially, in terms of the fiscal effort required, and (ii) militarily, in terms of weapon production. Financial effort: The financial challenge of replacing US aid is limited. Currently, European governments are spending just 0.1% of their annual GDP on bilateral aid for Ukraine - a minor effort. To replace US aid flows and keep total support at the same level: Europe needs to double its yearly support to an average level of 0.21% of GDP. This is less than half of what Denmark and the Baltics are already doing and on a level of what Poland and the Netherlands do. In short: Europe as a whole would need to follow Scandinavia’s or Poland’s example. In absolute terms (billions of Euro), the biggest European countries and the EU Institutions will be decisive. To replace US aid and get to 0.21% of GDP, Europe as a whole needs to increase its yearly aid flow from currently €44 bn per year to €82 bn per year. The biggest donors for that effort will be the EU institutions (Commission and EIB), who will need to increase their annual support from currently €16 bn to €36 bn per year. Next comes Germany (from currently €6 billion to at least €9 billion per year), then Great Britain (from €5 to €6.5 bn per year), then France (from currently just €1.5 bn to €6 bn per year), Italy (from currently just €0.8 bn to €4.5 bn) and Spain (from just €0.5 bn to €3 bn per year). All remaining European donors would need to move from €14 bn to €16.5 bn per year. To avoid freeriding, we recommend offering financial incentives to those countries giving aid to Ukraine. Big Ukrainian donors (in % of GDP) could get priority access to any new EU-level defense financing scheme. Large Ukraine aid could also be exempt from EU fiscal rules, or deducted from each nation’s contributions to the EU budget. Military effort: On military aid, replacing the US will be more challenging, but is possible in many domains. We show weapon-by-weapon that Europe’s industry has viable alternatives for almost all of the main US heavy weapon systems donated to Ukraine. Europe also accelerated ammunition production and this effort would now need to be intensified at greater speed and scale, especially for howitzer ammunition. Our data show that the biggest dependency from US-produced weapons is in (i) rocket artillery such as HIMARS (86% of weapons for Ukraine are US-produced systems), (ii) Howitzer ammunition (82% US produced), (iii) long-range anti-aircraft systems such as Patriots (70% US produced). In other domains, European weapons play a more important role, in particular regarding Howitzers and battle tanks. Among the heavy weapons, US HIMARS and Patriots are hardest to replace, as is the supply of ammunition for these systems. Also, US intelligence sharing and satellite imagery are decisive. To respond to these challenges: Europe needs to ramp up the production of essential weapons and artillery ammunition quickly and broadly. It is advantageous that European donors already transited away from donating from stocks to procuring new weapons for Ukraine from industry. These procurement efforts would need to be extended considerably by making firm medium- and long-term commitments to weapon-producing firms. For US weapons that are hard to replace, Europe could place orders in the US and beyond. Viable alternatives to HIMARS include the South Korean K239 Chunmoo and Israel’s PULS. In addition, Europe could heavily invest in the development and production of alternative systems such as SAMP/T. European countries could also increase drone production considerably, both by European producers, and, more importantly, by directly investing in the highly successful weapons industry of Ukraine. Finally, Europe would need to move fast to build alternative digital, satellite, and intelligence systems, including accelerated and expanded initiatives such as the satellite internet constellation IRIS2.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Arms Trade, Fiscal Policy, Military Aid, Geoeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

197. Capabilitarian Social Justice in EU: Care, Dependency, and the Conception of the Person

Author:: Elisabeth Schöyen
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law (GoJIL)
Abstract:: While the European Union (EU) is nominally committed to the promotion of social justice by virtue of Article 3 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (TFEU), the substantive meaning of this objective remains an open question. By first presenting an ideal of social justice for the EU, and then comparing it to the acquis, this paper hopes to make a small contribution to a (necessarily larger) debate about the substantive content of the social justice objective and about the place of political philosophy within legal scholarship more broadly. To do so, Martha Nussbaum’s capabilities approach (CA) is used as a starting point. Nussbaum proposes a list of ten central human capabilities, all of which must be ensured (at least) at a threshold level in order for a given polity to be considered minimally just. Rather than considering the individual capabilities, the analysis focuses on the conception of the person underlying Nussbaum’s CA, contrasting it with the conception which emerges from the analysis of the legal subject in EU law. It argues that the latter is not only unrealistic but unjust. Focusing on the construction of the disabled legal subject, as well as its intersections with the statuses of ‘worker’ and ‘migrant’, the paper contrasts EU law and policy with Nussbaum’s normative ideal. It finds that the conception of the person underlying the construction of the EU legal subject is insufficiently receptive to care and vulnerability as constitutively human traits, and moreover struggles to conceive of personhood outside of a productivity framework.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Social Justice, Disability, and Person
Political Geography:: Europe

198. How to Finance Europe’s Military Buildup? Lessons from History

Author:: Johannes Marzian and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that budget cuts, e.g. on social or foreign affairs, were rarely used to finance military buildups. Instead, governments typically relied on a mix of deficit financing and higher tax revenues. The larger the buildup, the more dominant debt financing has been. In line with history and theory, Germany and Europe should again rely on debt financing to quickly increase its defense spending and military capabilities. To deal with the added debt burden in the medium run, governments could increase taxes, reduce subsidies and tax avoidance, and freeze the growth of social spending. Fiscal rules must not stand in the way of the defence of Europe. A warning example is the case of the UK in the 1930s, which refrained from significantly ramping up military expenditure and instead pursued a policy of balanced budgets and appeasement. Consequently, the UK was ill-prepared when Nazi Germany launched its attack. Germany should not repeat the errors made by Britain in the 1930s and should invest heavily in defense so as to deter Russia. To achieve this, defense spending should be excluded from fiscal rules both in Germany and Europe. A less clear-cut alternative would be the creation of new debt funds, such as a European financing mechanism or another "Sondervermögen" in Germany.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Military Spending, Innovation, Geoeconomics, Fiscal Multipliers, Rearmament, and History
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Germany, and United States of America

199. How to Finance Europe’s Military Buildup? Lessons from History

Author:: Johannes Marzian and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Europe must rapidly increase its military spending, but how? We collect 150 years of data to study what governments in similar situations have done. How were past military buildups financed? What was the relative importance of debt financing, budget cuts, and taxes? Our main finding is that budget cuts, e.g. on social or foreign affairs, were rarely used to finance military buildups. Instead, governments typically relied on a mix of deficit financing and higher tax revenues. The larger the buildup, the more dominant debt financing has been. In line with history and theory, Germany and Europe should again rely on debt financing to quickly increase its defense spending and military capabilities. To deal with the added debt burden in the medium run, governments could increase taxes, reduce subsidies and tax avoidance, and freeze the growth of social spending. Fiscal rules must not stand in the way of the defence of Europe. A warning example is the case of the UK in the 1930s, which refrained from significantly ramping up military expenditure and instead pursued a policy of balanced budgets and appeasement. Consequently, the UK was ill-prepared when Nazi Germany launched its attack. Germany should not repeat the errors made by Britain in the 1930s and should invest heavily in defense so as to deter Russia. To achieve this, defense spending should be excluded from fiscal rules both in Germany and Europe. A less clear-cut alternative would be the creation of new debt funds, such as a European financing mechanism or another "Sondervermögen" in Germany.
Topic:: Military Spending
Political Geography:: Europe

200. In Merz We Truss: Financial Market Reaction to Germany’s Fiscal Package

Author:: Filippos Petroulakis and Farzad Saidi
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • This study analyzes capital market reactions to Germany’s recent announcement of loosening fiscal restrictions for defense and state-level spending, while establishing a €500 billion infrastructure investment fund. In particular, we examine whether surging Bund yields reflect growth expectations or fiscal risk concerns. • Clear evidence of growth expectations: The steepening German yield curve, rising stock prices, euro appreciation, and stable credit default swap prices collectively indicate that markets interpret Germany’s fiscal expansion as growth-enhancing rather than a reckless fiscal bet. • The contrast with the UK’s Truss-Kwarteng episode is stark: Unlike the 2022 UK “mini budget” aftermath, which triggered a selloff across all UK asset classes, Germany’s announcement has seen positive market reception across different asset classes, suggesting confidence in Germany’s fiscal credibility. • While the policy shift introduces some uncertainty, evidenced by modest increases in the European VSTOXX volatility index, this reaction appears calibrated and partially attributable to concurrent global market events, reinforcing the interpretation that markets view Germany’s fiscal expansion as responsible.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Budget, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, Yield Curve, and Debt Brake
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS