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4701. Strategic Missile Defense: A Reality Check

Author:
Greg Thielmann
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Strategic Missile Defense offers no real disincentive for rogue regimes such as North Korea or Iran to develop or use ballistic missiles, nor does it offer any protection against the more acute threat of terrorist groups smuggling weapons of mass destruction into the United States. Instead, the aggressive pursuit of strategic missile defense makes it more difficult to constrain the potential offensive nuclear threat from Russia and China.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and United States of America

4702. Chinese Mine Warfare: A PLA Navy 'Assassin's Mace' Capability

Author:
Andrew S. Erickson, William S. Murray, and Lyle J. Goldstein
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
After a lengthy hiatus-lasting nearly six centuries—China is reemerging as a maritime power, this time with an emphasis on undersea warfare. Between 1996 and 2006, the Chinese navy took delivery of more than thirty submarines. These vessels include two new classes of nuclear submarines-the advanced Song-class diesel submarines and the Yuan class of diesel boats which, according to some reports, was a surprise for U.S. intelligence. Above and beyond this ambitious naval construction pro- gram, the People's Republic of China (PRC) received during 2005-06 an additional eight formidable Kilo-class submarines (and associated weaponry), which were purchased in 2002, to add to the four it already operated. A new nuclear submarine base on Hainan Island may well herald a new era of more extended Chinese submarine operations.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Navy, Submarines, and Mine Warfare
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

4703. Scouting, Signaling, and Gatekeeping: Chinese Naval Operations in Japanese Waters and the International Law Implications

Author:
Peter A. Dutton
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
In October 2008, a month after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan stepped down and the more hawkish Taro Aso took office, a Chinese flotilla of four People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) ships transited from west to east through Japan's narrow Tsugaru Strait en route to the Pacific Ocean. The vessels were observed together in the Sea of Japan, headed east toward the strait, by a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) P-3C patrol aircraft; they were about twenty-five nautical miles west-southwest of Tappizaki, the cape at the northern tip of the Tsugaru Peninsula, where the Sea of Japan enters the Tsugaru Strait between the islands of Honshu and Hokkaido. The flotilla consisted of a Sovremennyy-class missile destroyer-one of four China bought from Russia between 1996 and 2002 a supply ship, and two Jiangkai frigates, one of which was a newly commissioned Jiangkai II. Apparently the Sovremennyy and one of the frigates had recently paid a friendly visit to a naval base in the Russian Far East before joining the other two Chinese naval vessels in the Sea of Japan and proceeding on through the strait to the Pacific Ocean.
Topic:
International Law, Navy, Law of the Sea, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia

4704. Food, Feed, or Fuel? Examining Linkages Between Biofuels and Agricultural Market Economies

Author:
Siwa Msangi and Mandy Ewing
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
As global energy resources become increasingly scarce in the face of growing energy demand for transport fuel and other productive uses, many countries have begun to turn to the possibilities that biofuels from renewable resources could offer to supplement their domestic energy portfolio. While much of the recent literature has focused on the growth of biofuels in the developed world—mostly in ethanol, a substitute for gasoline made from sugar- or starch-based crops, and biodiesel, a substitute for diesel made from oil-based crops—developing nations have expressed growing interest in biofuel production as well. Although Brazil and the United States currently represent nearly 90 percent of ethanol production, and the European Union represents 90 percent of biodiesel production, China and India are expected to capture a growing share of production in these biofuels categories in the coming decades.
Political Geography:
United States, China, India, and Brazil

4705. Asian Power: Sino-Russian Conflict in Central Asia?

Author:
Kathleen J. Hancock
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the state-owned gas monopoly, Gazprom, made front-page news when they ceased exporting natural gas to Ukraine in the winter of 2006, leaving Europe both irate and fearful due to its dependency on Russian energy. What many failed to notice was that Russia's actions wekre consistent with a fifteen year-old policy of playing hardball with former Soviet members using gas and oil pipelines as carrots and sticks to force policies and actions favorable to Moscow.Three of the states most affected by this pipeline diplomacy and least discussed in the Western press are the resource-rich Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. While energy-importing European states are vulnerable to Russia cutting supplies, exporting Central Asian states worry about Moscow shutting down pipeline access, without which they have few export options. The relationship between these states and Russia is further complicated by China's interest in Central Asia. Although Beijing and Moscow have recently patched up their rivalry, the increasing economic strength of both states plus jockeying between Russia and Central Asian states to serve as China's energy supplier may push Russia and China back into an antagonistic, and potentially dangerous, relationship.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Beijing, Asia, Uzbekistan, Soviet Union, and Moscow

4706. Changing the Political Climate on Climate Change

Author:
Tom Daschle
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The primary foreign policy challenge confronting the United States in the next three decades is also our country's largest domestic policy challenge: climate change. In both arenas—foreign and domestic policy—we are in effect racing the clock, aware that the longer we delay action, the more costly the fixes at home will be, and the less able we will be to induce the kind of change necessary in China, India, and beyond.
Political Geography:
United States, China, and India

4707. Long Time Coming: The Prospects for Democracy in China

Author:
John L. Thornton
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Is China democratizing? The country's leaders do not think of democracy as people in the West generally do, but they are increasingly backing local elections, judicial independence, and oversight of Chinese Communist Party officials. How far China's liberalization will ultimately go and what Chinese politics will look like when it stops are open questions.
Political Geography:
China

4708. The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive?

Author:
G. John Ikenberry
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
China's rise will inevitably bring the United States' unipolar moment to an end. But that does not necessarily mean a violent power struggle or the overthrow of the Western system. The U.S.-led international order can remain dominant even while integrating a more powerful China -- but only if Washington sets about strengthening that liberal order now.
Political Geography:
United States and China

4709. China's New Dictatorship Diplomacy: Is Beijing Parting With Pariahs?

Author:
Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt and Andrew Small
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Beijing has recently stepped back from its unconditional support for pariah states, such as Burma, North Korea, and Sudan. This means China may now be more likely to help the West manage the problems such states pose -- but only up to a point, because at heart China still favors nonintervention as a general policy.
Political Geography:
China, Sudan, Beijing, North Korea, and Burma

4710. Reconsidering Revaluation: The Wrong Approach to the U.S.-Chinese Trade Imbalance

Author:
David D. Hale and Lyric Hughes Hale
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Politicians in Washington are clamoring for currency revaluation in China to reverse China's trade surplus with the United States. But the trade imbalance is not the threat they make it out to be, and a stronger yuan is not the solution. Everybody should focus instead on properly integrating China into the global economy.
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Washington

4711. China and India Go to Africa: New Deals in the Developing World

Author:
Harry G. Broadman
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Economic activity between Africa and Asia, especially China and India, is booming like never before. If the problems and imbalances this sometimes creates are managed well, this expanding engagement could be an unprecedented opportunity for Africa's growth and for its integration into the global economy.
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, and Asia

4712. Transforming Nations: How the WTO Boosts Economies and Opens Societies

Author:
Peter D. Sutherland
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The World Trade Organization has changed the world in the past decade by welcoming China and transforming national fortunes in Cambodia and Saudi Arabia. It provides the catalyst that political leaders need to reform.
Political Geography:
China, Cambodia, and Saudi Arabia

4713. To the Editor: Chinese Ghosts

Author:
Harold Brown
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
G. John Ikenberry propagates a misconception ("The Rise of China and the Future of the West," January/February 2008) by using GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP) to conclude that China will surpass the United States in terms of economic weight sometime around 2020. A nation's weight in the world economy is primarily exerted through imports and exports, investment and capital flows. All of these take place at currency exchange rates, not at PPP. A haircut in Wuhan may cost a dollar's worth of yuan and be worth $15 to the Chinese GDP at PPP, but its effect on the outside world's economy is nothing, at least not until China can export haircuts.
Political Geography:
United States and China

4714. Tracking the Dragon

Author:
Randall G. Schriver
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Journal of International Security Affairs
Institution:
Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs
Abstract:
In their 197 classic folk-rock song, Buffalo Springfield sang the verses, “There's something happening here; What it is ain't exactly clear.” Such are the sentiments of many U.S. policymakers when analyzing the so-called “rise of China.” The “something” we know to be happening is the emergence of China onto the world stage—a development that our own National Intelligence Council opined “is similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful U.S. in the early 20th century, and will transform the geopolitical landscape with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.
Political Geography:
China and Germany

4715. From bear to bull? Sub-Saharan Africa and Global Capital Markets

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The current boom in global commodity prices and the expansion of Chinese interests in sub-Saharan Africa are part of a general warming of external investors to the region. This policy brief examines trends in commercial financial instruments such as equities, bonds and commercial bank lending and their impact on economic development. It reviews the nature and behaviour of these instruments in developing countries compared with more traditional development finance, such as foreign aid. This provides a foundation for analysing past and present trends in sub-Saharan Africa. It is argued that, like many other low income countries in the past, sub-Saharan Africa has received negligible inflows of external commercial financing. If anything, the region has been additionally excluded from these flows due to very weak levels of financial sector development even compared to other low income countries. At the same time, recent changes in global and domestic conditions mean that the situation is evolving rapidly. There is mounting evidence to show that many economies in sub-Saharan Africa are enjoying significantly expanded access to commercial external capital flows. Given good prospects that this trend will continue, the playing field for traditional donors is likely to alter significantly. The brief concludes by reflecting on how donors might respond to these emerging policy challenges.
Topic:
Development, Markets, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Africa and China

4716. A Security and Peace Mechanism for Northeast Asia: The Economic Dimension

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
A continuing leitmotif of the Six Party Talks—among the United States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and North Korea—is the prospect that a resolution of the nuclear question could set the stage for more institutionalized and enduring multilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia. The Joint Statement of September 19, 2005, which outlined the principles governing subsequent negotiations, referenced new “ways and means for promoting security cooperation in northeast Asia,” and the February 13, 2007 Joint Statement created a Working Group on a Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism (NEAPSM).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

4717. Privatization, Efficiency, Gender, Development, and Inequality—Transnational Conflicts Over Access to Water and Sanitation

Author:
Srini Sitaraman
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Human Rights and Human Welfare - Review Essays
Institution:
Josef Korbel Graduate School of International Studies, University of Denver
Abstract:
The global supply of freshwater is finite and current estimates put freshwater availability at less than one-half of one percent of the total water stock. Intensive agriculture practices, rapid industrialization, and expanding population and urbanization are reducing freshwater supplies that are further stressed by climate change, placing enormous pressures on the already fragile environmental landscape. The World Wildlife Federation's (WWF) Dam Initiative report identifies twenty-one river basins around the world at severe risk of ecological degradation: topping the list is the Yangtze in China, La Plata in South America, Tigris and Euphrates in Turkey, and the Ganges and Brahmaputra in India (WWF 2004). Although dams have proved to be a boon for irrigation and generating hydroelectric power, they have also severely disrupted ecosystems by interrupting the flow of major rivers, destroying freshwater habitats and leading to the disappearance of unique species, such as the freshwater river dolphins; dams have uprooted the livelihood of millions of people who rely on the unaltered flow of river water, and they have also disrupted the structure of floodplain agriculture. India and China are two of the starkest examples of human dislocation, conflict, and environmental denudation caused by dams (Economy 2004). According to the World Bank, India's growing water crisis is resulting in “little civil wars”: (a) between states, (b) between different users in a river basin, (c) between communities and the state, (d) between farmers and the environment, and (e) between farmers and the city consumers (World Bank 2005). India's former Minister of Water Resources, Priyaranjan Das Munshi was quoted as saying, “I am not the Minister of Water Resources, but the Minister of Water Conflicts” (UNESCO 2006). The World Bank (2005: 5) report on India's Water Economy describes India's water situation, which is heavily dependent on unpredictable and seasonal monsoons, as turbulent and unsustainable in the long run.
Topic:
Development and Health
Political Geography:
China, Turkey, India, and South America

4718. Empire, Hegemony, and Leadership: Developing a Research Framework for the Study of Regional Powers

Author:
Sandra Destradi
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Regional powers are often conceived of as “regional leading powers,” states which adopt a cooperative and benevolent attitude in their international relations with their neighbors. The paper argues that regional powers can follow a much wider range of foreign policy strategies in their region. Three ideal-typical regional strategies are identified: empire, hegemony, and leadership. The paper is devoted to a theory-led distinction and clarification of these three terms, which are often used interchangeably in the field of international relations. According to the goals pursued, to the means employed, and to other discriminating features such as the degree of legitimation and the type of self-representation by the dominant state, the paper outlines the essential traits of imperial, hegemonic, and leading strategies and identifies subtypes for better classifying hegemony and leadership.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, India, and Brazil

4719. China's Thirst for Oil

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
China's need for energy is growing faster than any other country's. Record economic growth results in demand that outstrips domestic supply, leading Beijing to look outward to ensure growth and stability. Concerns about the global oil market have led state firms to buy stakes around the world, often in countries shunned by Western firms. The investments are an important factor in Beijing's foreign policy. They also drive concerns that China's actions fuel or exacerbate conflict in the developing world and cause tensions with other major oil-importing countries as it locks up energy resources. China's energy needs have led it to play a more prominent role in international markets in recent years. This has generated concerns about the potential impact on other countries' energy security, and global and regional security generally. These are largely overstated, but China could take a number of steps, as its policymaking and implementation evolves, which would help create a more cooperative international environment on both energy and wider security issues.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Beijing, and Asia

4720. Asia — Shaping the Future

Author:
Douglas H. Paal
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Washington has no proactive vision toward a “rising Asia”; “more of the same” will not advance U.S. interests. Decide early on clear U.S. strategic objectives in the region, and signal to China where constructive cooperation will lead. Appoint a high-level advocate for Asia befitting its status as the new global “center of gravity.” Prioritize the bewildering alphabet of organizations and venues to achieve those objectives. Consider inviting China and India to join the G8. Anticipate greater Chinese and Indian military and trade capabilities by developing new multilateral security and economic arrangements in the region. Avoid coalitions based on common values or democracy. Asia is too diverse and complicated for them to succeed. Ditch the “war on terror” rhetoric, which has proved divisive and counterproductive.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Washington, India, and Asia

4721. Breaking the Suicide Pact: U.S.–China Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:
William Chandler
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States and China seemingly remain locked in a climate suicide pact, each arguing the other is the reason for inaction. U.S.–China climate cooperation is urgently needed to avert climate disaster. The current situation of the energy sectors in the United States and China offers a solution. China and the United States can set and cooperate to achieve national goals and implement enforceable measures. If this U.S.– China policy experiment works, China and the United States could develop packages of policies and measures, test them for efficacy, correct them, and share them with other countries.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

4722. What does a free-trade area of the Asia-Pacific mean to China

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Tingsong Jiang
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
A Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) has been proposed as a long-term prospect by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). This paper examines the impact of the FTAAP on the national and regional economies in China using a suite of general equilibrium models: APG-Cubed, a dynamic global model; GTAP, a static global model; and CERD, a static China model with regional dimension. The impact on the Chinese economy of the APFTA is also compared with those of other forms of FTAs such as the ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) and the East Asia FTA (EAFTA).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

4723. The Ties that Bind Bush and Bashir

Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Policy Information Center
Abstract:
This February, the Sudanese government launched a series of direct assaults on towns and villages in West Darfur that harkened back to the worst periods of violence since the current conflict in Sudan's western region began in 2003. Military aircraft, including Antonov transport planes used as bombers and helicopter gunships accompanied Sudanese Armed Forces and government-supported proxy militia in attacking the towns of Sirbu, Silea and Abu Siruj, among others. While these towns were located in a region controlled by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) rebel group, no evidence provided by the government of Sudan, international journalists or human rights groups indicates that rebel elements were present in these communities at the time of assault.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, Sudan, and Asia

4724. EU Trade Policy: Approaching a Crossroads

Author:
Roderick Abbott
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In an important shift, inspired partly by drift in the Doha Round negotiations, the EU announced in 2006 that it would seek new free trade area arrangements with fast-growing economies, particularly in Asia. The plan, which ended a moratorium on the launch of bilateral trade talks, in place since 1996, was billed explicitly as a contribution to the EU's own growth and jobs strategy as well as a market-opening exercise. However, the policy has so far been no more effective than multilateral negotiations in producing concrete results. Negotiations with South Korea and ASEAN have made only slow progress, while the state of talks with India remains unclear. The EU spent most of 2007 renegotiating long-standing agreements with African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries in an effort to satisfy WTO rules. Meanwhile, the EU's partnership agreements with China and Russia have expired, and appropriate successor arrangements are still being sought. In both cases, a number of important bilateral problems and strains will need to be dealt with. With its various trade negotiations treading water, the EU may need to review its options. One could be a more aggressive pursuit of market access, modelled on the US approach. Alternatively, the EU's traditional preference for multilateral engagement may reassert itself.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Caribbean

4725. EU-African Economic Relations: Continuing Dominance, Traded for Aid?

Author:
Dirk Kohnert
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Promising growth rates, increased trade, and competition among major global players for African resources have boosted the development and bargaining power of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in relation to the EU. However, Africa's least developed countries remain vulnerable to external shocks. Academic analysis is still too heavily influenced by scholastic controversies. Neither the controversy over “big-push” concepts nor the blaming of African culture as an impediment to growth or good government do justice to the real issues at stake. Even beyond the aftermath of (neo) colonialism, and notwithstanding continuing deficits in good government in many African countries, the EU bears responsibility for the fragile state of many African economies. The self-interested trade policies of the EU and other world powers contribute to poverty and unsatisfactory development in SSA. This threatens to perpetuate asymmetrical power relations in the new Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), to the detriment of regional integration and pro-poor growth. How- ever, mounting competition between China and other global players for Africa's resources is resulting in windfall profits for Africa. The latter is leading to a revival of seesaw politics, already known from the times of the Cold War, on the part of African states. This could be profitable for Africa's power elite, but not necessarily for Africa's poor.
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Europe

4726. Poverty Reduction in China: Is High Growth Enough?

Author:
Guanghua Wan
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Should growth or inequality be prioritized in the design and execution of development policies ? An oft cited paper by Dollar and Kraay of the World Bank advocates growth as the primary objective of development. Opponents argue that growth may not be pro-poor, thus growth alone is insufficient for poverty reduction—the ultimate goal of development. They instead emphasize redistribution as an important policy instrument. From a practical point of view, most policies involve trade-offs between efficiency (i.e., growth) and equity, at least in the short-run. With this in mind, development strategists and policymakers face the challenge or dilemma: what should be prioritized in the design and execution of development policies?
Political Geography:
China

4727. Approaching a Triumphal Span: How Far Is China Towards its Lewisian Turning Point?

Author:
Fang Cai
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
With the aid of an analytical framework of the Lewis model revised to reflect the experience of China, this paper examines the country's dualistic economic development and its unique characteristics. The paper outlines the major effects of China's growth as achieved during the course of economic reform and the opening-up of the country: the exploitation of the demographic dividend, the realization of comparative advantage, the improvement of total factor productivity, and participation in economic globalization. By predicting the long-term relationship between the labour force demand and supply, the paper reviews the approaching turning point in China's economic development and examines a host of challenges facing the country in sustaining growth.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4728. Beyond Industrialization: New Approaches to Development Strategy Based on the Service Sector

Author:
Peter Sheehan
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Industrialization occupies a central place in the rich tapestry of development theory and practice. Although that place has varied over time, many have agreed with Nicholas Kaldor that the kind of economic growth that leads to high real income per capita can only occur through industrialization. This paper argues that it is becoming increasingly difficult for most developing countries to achieve rapid growth through industrialization, and especially through export oriented activities. But the key mechanisms seen as driving the industrial take-off in much of the literature (internal increasing returns, transfer of labour into higher value activities and pecuniary externalities) are alive and well, and are evident in services as well as in industry. Furthermore, China is actively trying to move from a strategy based on industrialization to one based much more on agriculture and services, as the costs of the current pattern of industrialization become prohibitive, and India has demonstrated that rapid growth based primarily on the services sector is possible. Thus more attention needs to be given to strategies based on the expansion of the agricultural and services sectors, and to the ways in which better services in rural areas and higher rural output can combine to achieve rapid growth and improved human welfare in poor countries.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

4729. China and the Future of the Developing World: The Coming Global-Asian Era and its Consequences

Author:
Jeffrey Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The rise of China as an economic and political 'driver' of the global economy is likely to be one of the defining moments of world history. Its dynamism and international expansion are on the verge of creating a 'critical disruption' in the global order that has held sway for over 60 years. As such, China is beginning to reshape the world, presaging a new phase of globalization: a 'global-Asian era'. This new era is likely to be distinct from any of the earlier phases of globalization and China's global footprint, in terms of its business, economic and political actions and their geopolitical implications, is likely to be markedly different from what has gone before. This paper offers a framework by which we can begin to understand the coming global-Asian era (GAE) and some of its consequences, particularly as the latter are surfacing in the developing world. Having discussed the nature and dynamics of the GAE, the paper turns to sketch a series of vectors (trade, aid and energy security) along which the GAE is beginning to impact on developing countries. The paper argues that, at least for these vectors, the Chinese-driven GAE is providing opportunities as well as dangers for national development projects. It concludes by briefly speculating on the viability of the GAE.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4730. China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles

Author:
Jarko Fidrmuc and Ivana Bátorová
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We analyse the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006. We show that, although negative correlation dominate s for nearly all countries, we can also see large differences for various frequencies of cyclical developments. On the one hand, nearly all OE CD countries show positive correlations of the very short-run developments that may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. On the other hand, business cycle frequencies (cycles with periods between 1.5 and 8 years) are typically negative. Nevertheless, countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show also slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4731. China's Development Strategy and Energy Security: Growth, Distribution and Regional Cooperation

Author:
Haider A. Khan
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses both global and regional approaches to solving problems of energy security and ecological imbalance by addressing specifically the problems of China's energy security. China's growing energy dependence has become a major concern for both economic and national security policymakers in that country. The ambitious goal of modernization of the economy along the lines of the other newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia has succeeded only too well, and it is difficult to reorient economic priorities. If examined rigorously, such an economic strategic assumption can be seen to entail the goal of creating further technological capabilities. In particular, China seems to be firmly committed to the creation of a largely self-sustaining innovation system as part of a knowledge-based economy of the future. Such innovation systems, called positive feedback loop innovation systems or POLIS have been created by advanced countries, and NIEs such as South Korea and Taiwan are proceeding to create these as well. But this will add to its energy burden and further dependence on the US as the power which controls the key sea lanes. Only a strategic reorientation to building a self-sustaining POLIS and appropriate regional cooperation institutions can lead to the way out of the current dilemma for China. Fortunately, such a model of POLIS which is distributionally and ecologically sensitive can be built for China and applied strategically to lead towards a sustainable development trajectory.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Environment, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and South Korea

4732. China's Economic Growth: Trajectories and Evolving Institutions

Author:
Jun Zhang
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the institutional reason underlying the change in the trajectory of economic growth in post-reform China, and argues that the trajectory of growth was much more normal during the period of 1978-89 than in the post-1989 era. In the former period, growth was largely induced by equality-generating institutional change in agriculture and the emergence of non-state industrial sector. In the latter period, growth was triggered by the acceleration of capital investments under authoritarian decentralized hierarchy within self-contained regions. Such a growth trajectory accelerates capital deepening, deteriorating total factor productivity and leads to rising regional imbalance. This paper further argues that the change in the trajectory of growth is the outcome of changes in political and inter-governmental fiscal institutions following the 1989 political crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4733. China's Exports in ICT and its Impact on Asian Countries

Author:
Yuqing Xing
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses China's ICT exports grow thin its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia's exports.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand

4734. Comparing Regional Development in China and India

Author:
Yanrui Wu
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Economic growth in China and India has attracted many headlines recently. As a result, the literature comparing the two Asian giants has expanded substantially. This paper adds to the literature by comparing regional growth, disparity and convergence in the two economies. This is the first of its kind. The paper presents a detailed examination of economic growth in the regions of China and India over the past twenty years. It also provides an assessment of regional disparity in the two countries and investigates whether there is any evidence of regional convergence during the period of rapid economic growth. It attempts to identify the sources of regional disparity and hence draw policy implications for economic development in the two countries in the near future.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

4735. Development Path of China and India and the Challenges for their Sustainable Growth

Author:
Yuefen Li and Bin Zhang
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The segmentation of global manufacturing and services provided China and subsequently India with a golden opportunity to make full use of their absolute advantage—low cost yet educated labour—to integrate into the world economy within a comparatively shorter period of time than some earlier industrialisers. Though international trade functioned as a vent of surplus in view of the narrowness of their domestic markets at the beginning of their economic catch-up, the label of export-led model may not reflect the real picture as imports underwent dramatic increases during their respective growth periods, in particular for China. Foreign direct investment has played a pivotal role in their economic growth and has major presence in international trade and investment in leading sectors of both countries, giving rise to certain special features and weak links for their economic expansion and sustainability of fast economic growth. To maintain more broad-based, fast and balanced growth, it seems that both countries have to redress sectoral imbalances, encourage technology upgrading and cope with future changes in demographic profiles which constituted a trigger to fast economic growth at the time of their respective economic reform.
Topic:
Development and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

4736. A Mechanism to Stabilize U.S.-China-Japan Trilateral Relations in Asia

Author:
Shulong Chu
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
China, Japan, and the United States are the most important powers in Asia now and for the future. The relationships among them are the foundation of international relations, peace, and stability in East Asia, but may also become the major source of strategic conflict in the region. What Asia is now and will become in future decades depends very much on the three countries and their relationships.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

4737. Burma/Myanmar: After the Crackdown

Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The violent crushing of protests led by Buddhist monks in Burma/Myanmar in late 2007 has caused even allies of the military government to recognise that change is desperately needed. China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have thrown their support behind the efforts by the UN Secretary-General's special envoy to re-open talks on national reconciliation, while the U.S. and others have stepped up their sanctions. But neither incomplete punitive measures nor intermittent talks are likely to bring about major reforms. Myanmar's neighbours and the West must press together for a sustainable process of national reconciliation. This will require a long-term effort by all who can make a difference, combining robust diplomacy with serious efforts to address the deep-seated structural obstacles to peace, democracy and development.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and War
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Burma, United Nations, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

4738. Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor: Chinese Views of Economic Reform and Stability in North Korea

Author:
Scott Snyder, Bonnie Glaser, and John S. Park
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This report is based on discussions with Chinese specialists on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) during a visit to Beijing, Changchun, and Yanji, June 25-30, 2007.1 Discussions followed on a similar round of interviews conducted in April 2006. Several of our interlocutors recently returned from extended stays in Pyongyang and many others regularly visit the DPRK, commonly referred to as North Korea. Topics discussed included trends in North Korea's economy and prospects for reform; current trends in Sino-DPRK economic relations; China's policy toward North Korea in the wake of the nuclear test; Chinese debates on North Korea; Chinese assessments of North Korea's political stability; and potential Chinese responses to instability.
Topic:
Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Beijing, Asia, North Korea, and Changchun

4739. The Emerging Structure of International Politics

Author:
Kenneth Waltz
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
During the Cold War, the bipolar structure od international system and the nuclear weaponry avaliable to some states combined to perpetuate a troubled peace. As the bipolar era draws to a close, one has to question the likely structural changes in prospect. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, bipolarity endures, albeit in an altered state, because Russia stil takes care of itself and no great powers have emerged yet. With the waning of Russian power, the United States is no longer held in check by any other country. Balance of power theory leads one to assume that other powers, alone or in concert, will bring American power into balance. Considing the likely changes in the structure of international system, one can presuppose that three political units may rise to great-power rank: Germany or a West European state, Japan and China. Despite all the progress achieved by these countries, for some years to come, the United States will be the leading counrty economically as well as militarily.
Topic:
Cold War, International Political Economy, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, China, Europe, and Germany

4740. Export Productivity, Finance, and Economic Growth: Are the Southern Engines of Growth Different?

Author:
Alessandra Guariglia and Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using a panel of 139 countries over the period 1992-2003, we analyse the links between export productivity, economic growth and financial development indicators. We then investigate whether the links observed in China, India and Brazil systematically differ from those observed in other countries in the sample. We find that both GDP per capita and investment generally exert a positive and significant effect on export productivity. Except for Brazil, financial development is not an important determinant of export productivity. Moreover, except for Brazil, export productivity plays a positive effect on growth, and so does financial development for both China and Brazil, but not for India. Finally, in both India and Brazil, FDI is negatively associated with growth.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, Brazil, and South America

4741. Export Productivity and Specialization in China, Brazil, India and South Africa

Author:
Amelia U. Santos-Paulino
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses the patterns of export productivity and trade specialization profiles in the China, Brazil, India and South Africa, and in other regional groupings. In doing so, the investigation calculates a time varying export productivity measure using highly disaggregated product categories. The findings indicate that export productivity is mainly determined by real income and human capital endowments. Importantly, the study reveals significant differences in the export productivity and specialization patterns of countries with comparable per capita income levels. For instance, China's export productivity and implied export sophistication is in line with that of countries with higher per capita incomes, including some OECD industrial economies.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and South America

4742. Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, and Economic Growth in China: A Time Series Analysis

Author:
Sumei Tang, E. A. Selvanathan, and S. Selvanathan
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper, we investigate the causal link between foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment and economic growth in China for the period 1988-2003. Towards this purpose, a multivariate VAR system with error correction model (ECM) and the innovation accounting (variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis) techniques are used. The results show that while there is a bi-directional causality between domestic investment and economic growth, there is only a single-directional causality from FDI to domestic investment and to economic growth. Rather than crowding out domestic investment, FDI is found to be complementary with domestic investment. Thus, FDI has not only assisted in overcoming shortage of capital, it has also stimulated economic growth through complementing domestic investment in China.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China

4743. Foreign Direct Investment from China, India and South Africa in Sub-Saharan Africa: A New or Old Phenomenon?

Author:
John Henley, Stefan Kratzsch, Tamer Tandogan, and Mithat Külür
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The burgeoning literature on outward foreign direct investment from emerging markets has largely focused on analysing the motives of investors as reported by parent companies. This paper, instead, focuses on firm-level investments originating from China, India or South Africa in fifteen host countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The analysis is based on a sub-set of firms drawn from the overall sample of 1,216 foreign-owned firms participating in the UNIDO Africa Foreign Investor Survey, carried out in 2005. The sample of investments originating from China, India and South Africa is analysed in terms of firm characteristics, past and forecast performance in SSA over three years and management's perception of ongoing business conditions. Comparisons are made with foreign investors from the North. The paper concludes that while investors in SSA from the three countries are primarily using their investment to target specific markets, they are largely operating in different sub-sectors. While there appear to be specific features that firms from a given country of origin share, there are no obvious operating-level features they all share apart from market seeking.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, Asia, and South Africa

4744. Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?

Author:
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Maurizio Bussolo, Rafael E. De Hoyos, and Denis Medvedev
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Over the past 20 years, aggregate measures of global inequality have changed little even if significant structural changes have been observed. High growth rates of China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while the stagnation in many African countries caused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank's LINKAGE global general equilibrium model and the newly developed Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) tool, this paper assesses the distribution and poverty effects of a scenario where these trends continue in the future. Even by anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India is a key force behind the expected convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middle class—a group of people who can afford, and demand access to, the standards of living previously reserved mainly for the residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding these positive developments, fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills, both of which result in a widening of income distribution within countries. These opposing distributional effects highlight the importance of analysing global disparities by taking into account—as the GIDD does—income dynamics between and within countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa, China, India, and Asia

4745. The Impact of Higher Standards in Patent Protection for Pharmaceutical Industries under the TRIPS Agreement: A Comparative Study of China and India

Author:
Xuan Li
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A comparative study is undertaken that explores Chinese and Indian pharmaceutical industries under different patent regimes. It is found that relative to India, which had implemented process patent until 2005, China with a product patent regime since 1993 suffers from both lower drug accessibility and availability (the latter is a missing parameter in the literature). Also, China lags behind in both lower R investment and patents filed by Chinese nationals. Based on these findings and associated legal interpretation, we conclude that higher patent protection in China generates negative impacts on the pharmaceutical industries. Thus, governments should utilize TRIPS flexibilities and other regimes like price control to offset the anticompetitive effect in designing patent policies.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

4746. The Impact of Reform on Economic Growth in China: A Principal Component Analysis

Author:
Ligang Song and Yu Sheng
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The study decomposes the sources of Chinese growth by first making a distinction between technological progress and technical efficiency in the growth accounting framework, and then identifying a series of reform programmes, such as urbanization, structural change, privatization, liberalization, banking and fiscal system reforms as the key components in institutional innovation which facilitate the improvement of technical efficiency and through which economic growth. These components are then incorporated into the model specification, which is estimated based on a panel dataset by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) to eliminate the multicollinearity problem. The results show that urbanization, liberalization and structural change in the form of industrialization are the most important components in contributing to the improvement of technical efficiency and hence growth, highlighting the importance of government policies aimed at enhancing further urbanization, openness to trade and industrial structural adjustments to sustain the growth momentum in China. The study also found that the potential for further enhancing growth through technical efficiency in China is considerable, which can be realized by deepening state-owned enterprises (SOEs) restructuring, and banking and fiscal system reform.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4747. Innovation Capacity and Economic Development: China and India

Author:
Peilei Fan
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Both China and India, the emerging giants in Asia, have achieved significant economic development in recent years. China has enjoyed a high annual GDP growth rate of 10 per cent and India has achieved an annual GDP growth rate of 6 per cent since 1981. Decomposing China and India's GDP growth from 1981 to 2004 into the three factors' contribution reveals that technology has contributed significantly to both countries' GDP growth, especially in the 1990s. R outputs (high-tech exports, service exports, and certified patents from USPTO) and inputs (R expenditure and human resources) further indicate that both countries have been very committed to R and their output is quite efficient.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

4748. International Integration and Regional Development in China

Author:
Thomas Gries and Margarete Redlin
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Concerns about the duration of China's growth and hence the question of a permanent significant contribution of China to world economic growth relate, amongst other things, to the problem of reducing regional disparity in China. While China's high average growth is driven by a small number of rapidly developing provinces, the majority of provinces have experienced more moderate development. To obtain broad continous growth it is important to identify the determinants of provincial growth. Therefore, we introduce a stylized model of regional development which is characterized by two pillars: (i) International integration indicated by FDI and/or trade lead to imitation of international technologies, technology spill overs and temporary dynamic scale economies, and (ii) domestic factors indicated by human and real capital available through interregional factor mobility. Using panel data analysis and GMM estimates our empirical analysis supports the predictions from our theoretical model of regional development. Positive and significant coefficients for FDI and trade support the importance of international integration and technology imitation. A negative and significant lagged GDP per capita indicates a catching up, non steady state process across China's provinces. Highly significant human and real capital identifies the importance of these domestic growth restricting factors. However, other potentially important factors like labor or government expenditures are (surprisingly) insignificant or even negative. Further, in contrast to implications from NEG models indicators for urbanization and agglomeration do not contribute significantly.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4749. Measuring the Competitive Threat from China

Author:
Rhys Jenkins
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In recent years there has been a growing literature that analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. The paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the static and the dynamic index of competitive threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4750. Ownership Reform, Foreign Competition, and Efficiency of Chinese Commercial Banks: A Non-Parametric Approach

Author:
Shujie Yao, Zhongwei Han, and Genfu Feng
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the pressure for bank reforms has mounted as China ought to fully open up its financial market to foreign competition by 2006. Efficiency is key for domestic banks to survive in a liberalised environment, but it appears that the last hope for raising bank efficiency is through ownership reform. Whether ownership reform and foreign competition can solve China's banking problem remains to be tested. This paper aims to answer this question through using a non-parametric approach to analyse the efficiency changes of 15 large commercial banks during 1998-2005. We find that ownership reform and foreign competition have forced the Chinese commercial banks to improve performance, as their total factor productivity rose by 5.6 per cent per annum. This coincides with the recent bullish Chinese stock markets led by three listed state-owned commercial banks. Despite such encouraging results, we remain cautious about the future of the Chinese banks, as the good results may have been artificially created with massive government support and the fundamentals of the banks may be still weak.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia