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81. Washington’s Influence: The Significance of Taiwan’s Annual Han Kuang 2026 Military Exercises

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
On August 5, 2026, Taiwan launched its annual Han Kuang military exercises, a ten-day event continuing through August 14, with the aim of simulating the country’s response should China resort to force to reclaim the self-governing island, which Beijing considers a territory under its jurisdiction. The drills included combat scenarios for troops and reservists to test how they would respond to a potential attack on the island. Taiwanese military circles described the exercises as “exceptional and the first of their kind,” given their comprehensiveness and the scale of the realistic threats they simulate, in addition to coming at a time of escalating military tensions between Beijing and Taipei, as well as continued disagreements between Washington and Beijing over the Taiwan issue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

82. Arena of Rivals: China, Taiwan, and the Contest for Africa

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The China-Taiwan file has undergone a notable transformation at the African level. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te concluded his visit to Eswatini on May 5, 2026 — a trip that had originally been scheduled for April 22 to 26 before being postponed, after Seychelles, Mauritius, and Madagascar revoked overflight permits for the Taiwanese presidential aircraft. Beijing, meanwhile, received the President of Mozambique from April 18 to 22, who met Chinese President Xi Jinping at the latter’s invitation, as well as Namibia’s Minister of International Relations and Trade from April 11 to 18.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Taiwan, Asia, and Eswatini

83. Balancing Act: Why China Chose “Pragmatic Neutrality” in the War on Iran

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Since the outbreak of the American-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, 2026, China has maintained what can best be described as a flexible, carefully calibrated stance. Foreign Ministry statements issued on February 28, March 2, and March 11 condemned the American-Israeli strikes, called for a halt to the escalation, and emphasized that the war serves no party’s interests. Complementing its public statements, Beijing reinforced its diplomatic engagement by dispatching its special envoy for Middle Eastern affairs, Zhai Jun, to the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Neutrality, and 2026 Iran War
Political Geography:
China, Iran, and Asia

84. Strategic Hedging in Motion: Japan’s Trajectory to Counter Growing Chinese Influence

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Japan has recently intensified diplomatic and security efforts to reinforce regional alliances and mitigate the potential repercussions of Beijing’s rising power amid China’s significant expansion of influence across Southeast and East Asia. Expanded security coordination and military cooperation with the United States, South Korea, and the Philippines now characterize these initiatives, raising important questions about their impact on the regional balance in East Asia.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Hedging, Foreign Influence, and Military Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia

85. Walking on Two Legs: The Socialism of Chinese Modernisation

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
09-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The Chinese experience shows that true national independence demands both technological advancement and the constant realignment of economic power, proving that market mechanisms can be directed toward human need rather than profit.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, Modernization, and Socialism
Political Geography:
China and Asia

86. China’s ‘World-Class Military’ in the Indo-Pacific: Scenarios for 2049 and their Consequences for European Security

Author:
Kaspar Pucek, Karen van Loon, and Xiaoxue Martin
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
China’s resurgence has been one of the defining geopolitical developments of our time. By the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2049, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to have completed its “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. But what, exactly, does Beijing mean by this statement? And what will this entail for the Netherlands, the European Union, and NATO by 2049. The report is divided into four chapters. The first chapter will analyse the meaning of the 2049 centenary for the geopolitical strategy of the Chinese leadership. The second chapter will zoom in on China’s ambitions to build a “world-class military” by 2049 as part of its national rejuvenation strategy, the extent to which it has succeeded so far, and the areas where it still aims to catch up with the United States in particular. Chapter three will present three scenarios as to how China could possibly attain its military goals in the Indo-Pacific by 2049. Finally, the fourth chapter will reflect on the implications of these scenarios for European security and will present policy recommendations for what Europe could do to prepare for and navigate those scenarios. The scenarios are: 1. Forgone Formose: “Peaceful reunification” through a blockade of Taiwan. 2. Thucydides Trapped: A U.S.-China war of attrition along the First Island Chain. 3. Sino-centric Seas: China’s emerging primacy amid U.S. retrenchment. All three scenarios contain profound implications for European security, exposing it to political, geo-economic, and military pressure from both China and the U.S., maritime vulnerabilities, the potential weakening of the U.S. commitment to European security, as well as Chinese cyber and hybrid threats in retaliation for European support for the United States in case of a conflict with China. Europe should contribute to stability in the Indo-Pacific by raising the costs of conflict and lowering the risks posed by expanding Chinese influence in the region by reducing its own vulnerabilities, through: • Building a credible and usable European geo-economic deterrent. • Strengthening existing and new partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. • Strengthening economic and supply chain resilience. • Prioritising maritime security, chokepoint resilience, and access diversification. • Rebuilding European security to reduce dependence on the United States, enabling Europe to take more responsibility for its own defence, thereby closing any perceived window of opportunity for Russian aggression during periods of U.S. strategic distraction while also making Europe less vulnerable to coercive leverage by the United States.
Topic:
Security, Armed Forces, Geopolitics, and European Union
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

87. AI Diplomacy for a Multipolar World: Policy Brief Europe’s Moment to Act on Trusted AI Partnerships

Author:
Maaike Heijmans and Alexandre Ferreira Gomes
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
US and Chinese AI models and their embedded normative biases are spreading, without any clear European counterbalance or alternative. The Netherlands and the EU need an AI diplomacy strategy that builds a modular tech offer to safeguard global AI diversity, openness, and democratic governance. By working on AI diplomacy through the EU’s Global Gateway, the Netherlands can also strengthen its own competitiveness and digital development. Dutch technological niches that are in high global demand and make for concrete sectoral offerings include agritech, cybersecurity, healthtech, and edtech.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, Netherlands, and United States of America

88. America, China and the Middle East: Will the Failure in Iran Lead to a Decline in American Power?

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
US strategic failure in the Iran war rests on three claims: misreading limits of military power, failing to achieve core war objectives, and allowing the conflict’s effects to spill beyond the Middle East into broader international consequences.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Armed Conflict, and 2026 Iran War
Political Geography:
China, Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

89. US National Security Strategy: The Trump Administration’s Vision for the United States and the World

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Trump's 2025 National Security Strategy marks a shift from post-Cold War US policy, rejecting global hegemony for "America First" realism. It prioritises sovereignty, economic security, reduced intervention, and burden-sharing with allies while focusing on containing China and hemispheric dominance.
Topic:
National Security, Foreign Policy, Donald Trump, Economic Security, and Burden Sharing
Political Geography:
United States of America, North America, and China

90. Changing Tides in the US Approach to Foreign Assistance in the Pacific

Author:
Kelley E. Currie
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Following the dissolution of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and dramatic reduction of other foreign assistance programs in 2025, the Trump administration has begun reconstructing foreign assistance programs around an “America First” approach that is tightly focused on national security and economic interests. The small island states of the Pacific have been an early testing ground for this new paradigm. These states are experiencing unique and extreme developmental challenges, including climate-related issues, and are also an intense theater of great power competition due to their strategic geography. Those charged with reconciling US interests and the needs of Pacific Island states within this new model of foreign assistance must be creative, flexible, and consistent, especially as China continues to expand and deepen its presence in the region. As a proving ground for the Trump administration’s new model of foreign assistance, the success or failure of this approach in the Pacific Islands will have important implications for its overall implementation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, Donald Trump, and USAID
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific