Political Geography: China - CIAO Search Results

301. NATO's Long Cold Front: Why NATO Must Reorganize Its Approach to Defending the European High North

Author:: Ryan R. Duffy, Jahara Matisek, Jeremy M. McKenzie, and Chad M. Pillai
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces strategic vulnerabilities in the European high north due to growing Russian and Chinese collaboration. Leveraging scenario planning and enhanced integration of Nordic capabilities into Joint Force Command Norfolk is recommended to bolster Arctic deterrence. Clarified command structures, specialized polar-warfare units, targeted infrastructure investments, and expanded Joint exercises are essential. This would strengthen NATO’s Arctic posture, ensuring regional stability and enabling the U.S. strategic pivot toward countering China’s growing global influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Topic:: NATO, Armed Forces, Deterrence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, Arctic, and United States of America

302. Chinese Arctic Expansion: How Beijing Benefits from Moscow’s Isolation

Author:: Mark Vicik
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine caused immediate disruption to the Arctic’s strategic environment. This shift has caused Russia to partner more closely with China, giving Beijing new opportunities to advance its goals in the region. This article explores the impacts that this shift could have on China’s activity in the Arctic. First, it describes the history of China in the Arctic to define its strategic objectives in the region. Then, it argues that the geopolitical changes following the war in Ukraine have given Beijing new opportunities to advance these Arctic goals. Finally, it assesses this shift’s strategic impact to the United States and its allies. This work provides a critical insight into changing power dynamics in the Arctic in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Civil-Military Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, and Arctic

303. Power Play: Charging Up Strategic Competition over Lithium Battery Value Chains

Author:: Philip Murray
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article examines the strategic implications of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) dominance over the global lithium value chain and the resulting vulnerabilities for the U.S. Department of Defense. During several decades, through sustained strategic investments, the PRC has achieved a controlling position in the lithium market, encompassing mining, refining, and battery manufacturing. This control allows the PRC to influence lithium pricing and availability globally, posing significant economic and strategic risks to nations reliant on these supply chains, particularly the United States.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Global Value Chains, Lithium, Batteries, and Energy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

304. Synthesizing Strategic Frameworks for Great Power Competition

Author:: Gavin Holtz
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article examines the theoretical foundations necessary for conceptualizing and operationalizing modern great power competition through the innovative synthesis of three influential military frameworks: Colonel John R. Boyd’s observe, orient, decide, act (OODA) loop, Colonel John A. Warden’s systems analysis, and Chinese colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui’s unrestricted warfare theory. The research demonstrates how complementary frameworks provide strategic practitioners with comprehensive capabilities for identifying systemic vulnerabilities, orchestrating cross-domain effects, and maintaining decisive advantage through superior decision-making processes. The analysis reveals how modern competition transcends traditional military boundaries, necessitating organizational architectures capable of implementing synchronized operations across multiple competitive domains. This theoretical synthesis supports the proposal for an Interagency Action Committee on China (IAC-C) and identifies the foundational principles of a cross-domain organizational framework.
Topic:: Gray Zone, Strategic Competition, Warfare, Great Powers, and Systems Analysis
Political Geography:: China, Global Focus, and United States of America

305. The Arctic as a Periphery in U.S.-China Competition

Author:: Charlotte Hulme
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: While China’s Arctic inroads have attracted growing attention from the United States, this article views Arctic competition as a periphery of global great power competition, or as a sideshow to the main theater of U.S.-China competition—the Indo-Pacific. Examining China’s Arctic activity from a peripheral perspective, it ultimately argues that the United States should sustain its current posture of not letting a nonpriority theater become a main event in its competition with China.
Topic:: Strategic Competition, Periphery, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

306. The Hegemonic Transition in Latin America: To What Extent is China Challenging US’s Hegemony?

Author:: Andoni Maiza-Larrarte and Ricardo Bustillo-Mesanza
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: In this paper, we examine the geopolitical consequences of China’s enhanced engagement in Latin America. China is increasing its economic weight among Latin American countries, reinforcing its external image to counter the perception that the US is a unique relevant ally. In previous research, some authors have supported the idea that China could become a sort of neocolonial power in Latin America, substituting the hegemony of the United States. In this article, we carry out an in-depth review of Western literature and a comprehensive analysis of the bilateral relationship to discuss China’s role in the region. We apply the principles of the hegemonic stability and the power transition theories, and we also include an assessment of “soft power” components. We conclude that China is eroding US power in Latin America but is still far from becoming the new regional hegemon.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Transition, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America

307. The Functioning of Normative Power in the Logic of the EU and China

Author:: Emrah Yıldırımçakar
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: Normative power has become a critical topic of discussion in International Relations and Political Science scholarship, particularly in the context of the normative power of the European Union (EU) and China. However, academic attention has been excessively directed toward investigating the normative power of the European Union rather than that of China. Given the EU’s unique status as a supranational and multinational entity consisting of multiple member states, its process of diffusion of normative power differs significantly from that of China. In this context, this study aims to explore and compare the normative power dynamics maintained by the EU and China in the international arena, examine the approaches, strategies, and outcomes of both the EU and China by providing a detailed understanding of how each party implements normative power, and explore the inequalities in normative power acquisition strategies between these two actors.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Political Science, and Norms
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

308. Beyond Strategic Ambiguity: Supporting Taiwan Without a Commitment to War

Author:: Michael D. Swaine
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: The first brief in this series made the case that Taiwan is not a vital interest justifying a war between the United States and China. This second brief outlines how Washington can transition from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity in a manner that continues to deter Beijing from coercing Taipei while ruling out direct American military intervention in defense of the island. This brief recommends that, in the short to medium term, the United States should maintain its standing policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan while also carrying out necessary preparations for a noninterventionist policy shift. These preparations include: A clear statement from Washington that it opposes any unilateral move by Taipei to achieve formal independence. A revitalization of the eroding One China Policy. A reaffirmation of U.S. security commitments to Japan and South Korea. A bolstering of the self-defense capabilities of Taiwan and nearby treaty allies. Encouragement and support for those in Japan who seek to ease tensions with China and wish to cultivate cooperative Sino–Japanese and Sino–American relationships. The initiation of a results-oriented strategic dialogue with China. The expansion of mutually beneficial trade, investment, and technology exchanges with Taiwanese companies and the offshoring of Taiwanese high-tech capabilities. Once these necessary, gradual preparations have been made, the U.S. president should explicitly state that America will not go to war with China to defend Taiwan but that the United States will support Taiwan — and the development of an improved cross-strait environment — in every other way possible. This policy shift is necessary because ongoing military and political trends are eroding the ability of the United States to deter and reassure China, increasing the likelihood of conflict. The One China Policy is deteriorating, the Taiwanese public increasingly rejects any political association with China, and China is expanding its reliance on military displays, which undermines the credibility of the Chinese commitment to a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. More generally, U.S.–China relations continue to worsen. This trajectory renders the standing U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, which accepts the possibility of a direct U.S. war with China, dangerous and misaligned with U.S. interests. The above preparatory changes will require considerable diplomatic finesse and sustained attention over a considerable period of time. Given the weakened National Security Council and the virtual collapse of the past interagency coordinating process for policy development under President Trump, these required qualities might be in short supply at present. Hopefully, the Trump administration will be able to correct these deficiencies. It is unlikely China would respond to the strategy outlined here by attempting to reunify with Taiwan by force. This is because of the still high — and, in some areas, increased — risks confronting any Chinese use of force and because of the fact that this policy shift would likely increase Beijing’s confidence in eventually reaching a peaceful resolution of the issue.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Deterrence, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

309. Taiwan: An Important but Non-Vital U.S. Interest

Author:: Michael D. Swaine
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:: Taiwan is the most likely flashpoint that could trigger a direct war between the United States and China. It is critical, therefore, to examine whether or not Taiwan constitutes a vital U.S. interest. This brief asserts that Taiwan is an important but not vital U.S. interest. It is not an interest that justifies the United States going to war with China to defend. A direct war between the United States and China would be cataclysmic and cause extraordinary damage to the global economy. It would risk heavy U.S. military losses and possible nuclear escalation. It is also unclear whether the United States would prevail. Taiwan must be a truly vital interest to justify such risks. While it is important to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan and prevent a regional war that would destabilize East Asia, proponents of a U.S. defense of Taiwan by all means necessary exaggerate Taiwan’s strategic value and China’s military threat to East Asia. Taiwan is neither central to America’s ability to ensure a stable and prosperous Asia open to U.S. economic and political engagement nor is it a critical location for the United States to oppose Chinese hegemony in Asia. China views Taiwan primarily through a political lens. Beijing has not expressed the intent to use the annexation of the island as a stepping stone toward regional hegemony. Moreover, possession of Taiwan would not give China that capacity. The United States is not formally obligated to militarily defend Taiwan, in contrast to its security commitments to treaty allies Japan and South Korea. Washington does have a vital interest in maintaining its security commitments to Tokyo and Seoul — two robust economies and major technology innovators that are each more critical geostrategically than Taiwan. Taiwan does possess considerable value in its high-tech capabilities, producing 60 percent of the world’s most sophisticated semiconductors. But replicating this production capacity in the United States and other Western countries would be far less costly than fighting a war with China over Taiwan. Although Taiwan is not a vital interest justifying war and is not a treaty ally, the United States still has a strong interest in preventing Chinese coercion of this U.S.–aligned democracy. An accompanying brief presents an alternative approach to supporting Taiwan while maintaining U.S. credibility with critical Asian allies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Deterrence, Strategic Interests, and Strategic Ambiguity
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

310. Asean y la UE. Estrategias y oportunidades para Indonesia y España

Author:: Dayu Nirma Amurwanti and Alodia Pérez
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Este documento analiza el potencial de fortalecer las relaciones entre la Unión Europea (UE) y la ASEAN, destacando el rol estratégico de España e Indonesia. Ambos bloques comparten valores como el multilateralismo y enfrentan desafíos comunes como el cambio climático, la tensión entre EE. UU. y China, y la necesidad de integración comercial. España e Indonesia, potencias marítimas y economías emergentes, pueden liderar iniciativas en defensa, comercio, digitalización, educación e innovación. Se propone revitalizar la cooperación bilateral, avanzar en nuevos acuerdos de defensa y vigilancia marítima. Además, se destaca la urgencia de concluir el Acuerdo de Asociación Económica UE-Indonesia, promoviendo el comercio y la inversión verde. En educación y cultura, se plantea intensificar los intercambios universitarios e investigaciones conjuntas. Finalmente, se sugiere elevar la relación bilateral a una Asociación Estratégica y fomentar una agenda común en foros multilaterales para un orden global más justo y cooperativo.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Multilateralism, and Industry
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, Spain, United States of America, and ASEAN

311. From the Belt and Road to Make in India: A Comparative Assessment of Global Economic Engagement

Author:: Ferhat Çağrı Aras
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Novus Orbis: Journal of Politics & International Relations
Institution:: Department of International Relations, Karadeniz Technical University
Abstract:: China and India have emerged as two of the most influential actors shaping contemporary debates on economic development, governance models, and global economic transformation. As leading emerging economies facing similar structural pressures yet pursuing markedly different development paths, their experiences provide valuable insights into alternative strategies of growth, regional development, and global economic integration. Within this context, this study aims to explore how China and India differ in their development strategies with particular attention to governance structures, regional development policies, and modes of global economic engagement. Drawing on a qualitative comparative research design, the analysis is based on document analysis and qualitative content analysis of official policy documents, development plans, and secondary academic sources. The comparative assessment is structured around three core criteria: governance and planning mechanisms, regional development strategies aimed at managing spatial inequalities, and approaches to global economic integration, with particular emphasis on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Make in India program. Applying a consistent set of analytical dimensions to both cases allows for a systematic and conceptually balanced comparison. The findings suggest that China’s development strategy is shaped by a centralized, state-led governance model emphasizing long-term planning, large-scale infrastructure investment, and infrastructure-driven global engagement. In contrast, India’s development approach reflects a more decentralized and market-oriented model prioritizing regulatory reform, foreign direct investment, and partnership-based integration into global value chains. Rather than advancing normative evaluations, the study highlights how distinct governance logics produce different strengths and constraints under comparable global conditions. The article contributes to the literature on comparative development by offering a conceptually consistent analysis of China and India that moves beyond descriptive policy narratives. By linking governance structures to regional development strategies and global economic engagement, the study provides original insights into alternative development pathways among emerging economies in the Global South.
Topic:: Development, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Engagement, and Global South
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and India

312. The Japan, China, Iran Triangle: Strategic Implications for Israel

Author:: Eyal Ben-Ari
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: As Japan balances between Iran and the West and China deepens its ties to Tehran, Israel faces a shifting landscape demanding new regional approaches
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Iran, Middle East, and Asia

313. The Tehran–Moscow–Beijing Triangle

Author:: Yaakov Lappin
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: The revisionist bloc reshaping global power balances—and the dangers it poses for Israel and the West.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Palestine

314. China’s De-dollarisation Initiatives: Strategies and Constraints

Author:: Zongyuan Zoe Liu
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: A decade ago, renminbi internationalisation was a hot topic; today, it’s part of a broader, more strategic push toward de-dollarisation – accelerated by Western sanctions on Russia. While China’s efforts to globalise its currency began earlier, the risk of financial exclusion has intensified its urgency. Beijing’s approach is pragmatic and multi-pronged: it is deepening engagement with regional and non-Western partners developing renminbi-based infrastructure for cross-border payments, and leveraging its dominance in clean energy supply chains to promote renminbi pricing in key commodities. These strategies aim to enhance the renminbi’s role in trade and settlement while persistent structural factors – shallow capital markets and limited investor confidence – remain stumbling blocks for China’s currency becoming a global store of value. That may just be fine with Beijing, at least in the near to medium term. No evidence suggests China plans to dethrone the US dollar or replace the US dollar with the renminbi as the global dominant currency. China’s immediate goal is to insulate itself from financial sanctions in the dollar-based system. In a world where access to American banks and US dollar can be weaponised, China regards a functional alternative for cross-border settlement as a strategic necessity. With a trade-dependent economy and a leadership wary of volatility, China’s priority is currency stability, not supremacy.
Topic:: Political Economy, Governance, Currency, and Financial Services
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Asia

315. China-EU@50: Assessing the Ups and Downs of the Relationship

Author:: Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: In Europe there co-exist concurrent, and often contradictory, images of China, which explains why Sino-European economic relations continue to thrive notwithstanding the political coldness of the last years. While the EU’s leadership views Xi Jinping’s China as a ‘systemic rival’ and the main enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Beijing continues to be seen also as an opportunity by EU companies, universities and civil society groups. China’s dual image – that of a daunting challenge and a formidable opportunity – has characterised the Sino-European relationship since the mid-1970s.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

316. China's Quiet Footprint: Mapping Chinese Influence on Local Politics and the Economic Landscape in Kosovo

Author:: Adelina Hasani
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: China’s strategy to exert influence in Kosovo primarily centers on economic engagement and disinformation campaigns. However, recently, China has also shown a tendency to organize meetings with local authorities and develop cooperation across various fields, including the economy, culture, and the arts. Despite not recognizing Kosovo’s independence and lacking formal diplomatic relations, China engages through indirect channels, particularly trade, with the tendency to create municipal partnerships and connections with local businesses. This approach aligns with the Tao Guang Yang Hui principle, China’s grand strategy emphasizing the pursuit of national interests while avoiding overt confrontation. In contrast to Russia’s aggressive approach, China quietly expands its influence through soft power mechanisms, minimizing political friction while steadily deepening its economic presence. This approach is rooted in the Tao Guang Yang Hui principle or China’s grand strategy that emphasizes maintaining a low profile while quietly pursuing national interests. Under this doctrine, China seeks incremental gains while avoiding actions that might draw suspicion, provoke resistance, or force political commitments that could undermine its domestic priorities. This stands in sharp contrast to Russia’s more overtly assertive and confrontational strategy. Although China and Russia are often grouped together as external or malign influences in Kosovo, their strategies and objectives differ significantly. Russia pursues a confrontational approach, seeking to maintain a network of allies and proxies across the Western Balkans to counterbalance Western and U.S. influence. Rather than engaging directly in Kosovo, Russia treats the country as a geopolitical flashpoint, advancing its interests through regional partnerships and political alignment. In contrast, China’s approach follows its Tao Guang Yang Hui grand strategy, emphasizing subtle, long-term influence. It utilizes tools such as foreign direct investment, trade, business partnerships, and municipal-level cooperation, depending on what is feasible. By bypassing national institutions and often engaging directly with local actors, China minimizes political pushback while gradually deepening its presence and influence. This paper examines the contrasting strategies of Russia and China in Kosovo, with a particular focus on China’s expanding role through economic cooperation and its growing engagement with local-level institutions. Drawing comparisons with China’s broader involvement across Western Balkan countries - where its presence is often more visible and influential, such as in Serbia - the analysis highlights how China adapts its global grand strategy to regional and local contexts. Although China does not maintain diplomatic relations with Kosovo, lacks investments, and Kosovo is not part of the Belt and Road Initiative’s 16+ framework, China remains active in trade cooperation and increasingly seeks partnerships at the local level, particularly in economic, cultural, and artistic fields. The paper explores how China builds relationships with municipalities and businesses, often operating discreetly, to expand its soft power and influence public perception, especially at the community level. China’s presence in the Western Balkans has increased steadily over the past decade, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative, which serves as the primary vehicle for engaging countries in the region. Beyond economic motives, these investments are part of a broader geopolitical strategy that tends to shape global norms and institutions and secure support from smaller states such as those in the Western Balkans in international fora like the UN. This growing influence should also be seen in the context of rising global tensions, where a bifurcated world order, reminiscent of the Cold War, is taking shape. With the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, China has intensified efforts to challenge U.S. financial dominance. Western Balkans thus emerge not only as a strategic corridor into Europe but also as a critical region where China’s expanding influence may directly challenge the EU and broader Western presence. This research analyzes China’s soft influence in the Western Balkans through the lens of its grand strategy, with a particular focus on Kosovo. The analysis begins by exploring how China’s grand strategy is formulated at the global level and how it is adapted regionally, particularly in Kosovo, where China does not maintain diplomatic relations. A key objective is to shed light on China’s approach in the region, especially its efforts to build influence through business ties and local-level engagement. By unpacking China’s global strategy and examining its localized application, the study aims to inform the development of a clear, context-specific response by the government of Kosovo to mitigate China’s influence, particularly that which is pursued through non-transparent means.
Topic:: Grand Strategy, Disinformation, Foreign Influence, and Economic Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, Kosovo, and Balkans

317. India’s Future Strategic Choices: Complications of Mass

Author:: Richard M. Rossow
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: Leading up to the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, the Indian government put up billboards of Prime Minister Narendra Modi across the city. By one count, there were almost 1,000 signs and banners in the 12-kilometer stretch between the airport and U.S. President Joe Biden’s hotel highlighting India’s accomplishments, aspirations, and vision under Modi’s leadership.1 When asked about the billboards, India’s G20 coordinator responded, “We haven’t done advertising. We’re doing branding.”2 But this branding exercise was not merely intended to highlight India’s leadership role in a major international summit; it also sought to assert India’s leadership among the G20 countries that are less wealthy but large and fast growing. Quite purposively, India gathered more than 100 countries for the Voice of the Global South Summit the week before the G20 summit, where Modi declared the importance for India of “voicing the concerns of the Global South on the agenda of a significant platform like G-20.”3 As the concept of a coalition of Global South countries has emerged in recent years, India’s efforts to bolster its own brand as the vanguard of the Global South have accelerated. But India’s response to a new international order reflects an old strategy. In March 1947, on the eve of Indian independence, India hosted the first Asian Relations Conference, bringing together a diverse range of countries, including China, Indonesia, Egypt and the Arab League, Australia, and many of the Soviet republics. India hosted the conference during a period of geopolitical transformation, as countries around the world grappled with the aftermath of World War II and an emerging process of decolonization. Jawaharlal Nehru, then vice president of the Viceroy’s Executive Council, described the moment of the conference as an “age of transition.” He argued, “One of the notable consequences of the European domination of Asia has been the isolation of the countries of Asia from one another,” but “as that domination goes, the walls that surrounded us fall down and we look at each other again and meet as old friends long parted.”4
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and India

318. China Trying to Strengthen Dialogue with India

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: China sees India as its main rival in Asia. However, the Chinese authorities are maintaining a dialogue with the Indian government, recently even signalling a conciliatory attitude. In this way, they want to prevent an escalation in bilateral relations and try to influence India’s relations with the U.S. and the European Union in a way that is beneficial to China. Although China’s attempts to strengthen dialogue with India are tactical in nature, even a short-term improvement in bilateral relations poses a challenge for the EU. Attempts to reduce Europe’s dependence on China, in which India is to play an important role, are now in question.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: China, Europe, South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America

319. China Launches the International Organisation for Mediation

Author:: Stefania Kolarz and Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: China is introducing the International Organisation for Mediation (IOMed), which became operational on 29 August, as a complement to the international dispute resolution system. In practice, it is another initiative to gather countries of the Global South around China and intended to be a counterweight to international institutions they consider to be dominated by Western countries.
Topic:: Global South, International Institutions, Dispute Resolution, and International Organization for Mediation (IOMed)
Political Geography:: China and Asia

320. EU Clean Industry Deal: Strengthening Competitiveness in Green

Author:: Kinga Dudzińska
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: In the face of increasing trade pressure from the United States and growing competition from China, the European Union announced actions to rebuild the competitiveness of European industry, as included in the Clean Industry Deal (CID). Increasing the EU’s economic independence while maintaining ambitious climate goals will be a challenge for the industry, especially if electrification based on renewable sources is assumed. Therefore, solutions supporting the attractiveness to businesses of EU production will be decisive, including through efficient deregulation and reduction of energy prices and especially in view of the growing dynamics of changes in the structure of global markets. The EU’s flexible and adaptive approach to the energy transformation will be important here, in particular for countries still dependent on fossil sources, such as Poland.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, Industry, and Clean Industry Deal (CID)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

321. Reforming the EU Energy Market to Increase Competitiveness and Resilience

Author:: Kinga Dudzińska
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: Intensifying tensions in global trade and China’s growing competitive advantage mean that the European Union faces an urgent need to provide more decisive support for the development of its own economy. The implementation of the electricity market reform (EMD), approved in May 2024, is of particular importance. It was initiated in response to the need to reduce energy prices, which directly impact, among other things, the investment attractiveness of the EU and its competitiveness. Maintaining energy market stability and subsidy guarantees may, however, make it difficult to achieve the EU’s ambitious climate goals, which the European Commission is even tightening.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, European Union, Electricity, Resilience, Economic Competition, and Energy Markets
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

322. With Australia's General Election Settled, It is a Good Opportunity for Closer EU Engagement

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The Labour Party’s victory in the 3 May general election guarantees a continuation of Australia’s foreign policy, including its continued support for Ukraine. Uncertainty in relations with the U.S. and ongoing tensions with China open up opportunities to bring Australia closer to European partners, including the EU. It is in the mutual interest of the two like-minded partners to swiftly complete the negotiation of a free trade agreement and enhance strategic and defence cooperation. It is also an opportunity to intensify the Polish-Australian political dialogue.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Elections, European Union, and Political Engagement
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Australia

323. China Cautious about Participation in UN Peacekeeping, also in Ukraine

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:: The Chinese contingent in UN peacekeeping operations is the largest among the permanent members of the Security Council. The deaths of Chinese soldiers on these missions, as well as the low effectiveness of some of the operations, have made China cautious about its involvement in further ventures and seeking to change their operational rules. Together with the general distrust of China by the Ukrainian authorities and European states because of its support for Russia, the experience with peacekeeping will significantly affect the Chinese calculations regarding the potential deployment of Chinese troops to Ukraine after a possible ceasefire.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

324. More Than a Numbers Game: Comparing US and Chinese Landpower in the Pacific Requires Context

Author:: Brennan Deveraux and Joshua Arostegui
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: This monograph establishes a contextual baseline that serves as the framework for future comparisons of the US Army and the People’s Liberation Army Army. It examines differences in five key components of land warfare: the two nations’ landpower definitions, uses of land forces to build relationships, underlying warfare concepts, associated modernization efforts, and varying approaches to simulating land warfare in the region. In examining these components, the authors identify warfare intangibles that highlight analytical findings in a way that promotes future research. The existing scholarship comparing the two forces is often limited in scope, focusing on funding or comparing capabilities such as the number of specific weapons systems. This monograph differs from existing scholarship by providing a broad, in-depth comparison of critical landpower components. The analysis challenges long-held assumptions about US Army superiority and sets a foundation for future research. The authors rely heavily on primary sources and ample secondary documents translated directly from Chinese vernacular sources. This study’s conclusions challenge conventional thinking surrounding the People’s Liberation Army and will assist US military and policy practitioners in assessing the relative strengths and advantages the US military can grow or exploit.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Modernization, Simulation, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Warfare
Political Geography:: China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

325. Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Author:: US Army War College
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: Maintaining strategic advantage demands professional discourse from across the force. The Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment provides a framework for those aspiring to tackle the Department of Defense’s most pressing challenges. This year’s authors highlight trending challenges and identify potential tension points across 15 sections organized into four enduring themes. This survey of regional, domestic, and institutional challenges represents the collective expertise of the US Army War College. The narrative is supplemented by a tailored list of 100 command-sponsored questions from 43 different Army and Joint organizations from across the Department of Defense. Combined, the distinct yet complementary narrative and question list offer unique insights into the vital matters impacting defense organizations and provide aspiring researchers with a necessary starting point.
Topic:: NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Natural Resources, Budget, Deterrence, Artificial Intelligence, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Defense Spending, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Strategic Security
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and Indo-Pacific

326. The Quadripolar World: Understanding Twenty-First-Century Geopolitics

Author:: S. Yash Kalash
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The current geopolitical environment is defined by constantly changing dynamics among countries: long-standing partnerships are disintegrating while other alliances are strengthening. To better understand a world in flux, this special report presents the quadripolar geopolitical framework (QGF) in which four powers — the United States, China, India and Russia — serve as autonomous strategic poles. The framework seeks to capture the fluid, multidimensional nature of twenty-first-century geopolitics, where states simultaneously compete, cooperate and hedge across domains. Drawing on game theory, the QGF maps bilateral relationships across two axes: ideological alignment versus strategic autonomy, and systemic rivalry versus economic interdependence. Through case studies, the special report illustrates how contemporary power dynamics defy linear alliances and demand new interpretive tools.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Geopolitics, Economy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Russia, China, India, Global Focus, and United States of America

327. China's Strategic Manoeuvring in the Palestine-Israel Conflict: A Power Transition Theory

Author:: Sahibzada Muhammad Usman
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: In a transitional global landscape, this paper investigates the China’s involvement in Middle Eastern political events pertaining to Israel and Palestine conflict. It is to evaluate China’s regional power using the Power Transition Theory to determine the degree of China’s influence, its goals and drawbacks with major global powers comparatively. By employing historiography approach and comparative analysis using qualitative research methods. The research delves into mixed method approach of primary and secondary sources. The hostile global political systems, regional alliances, and internal political difficulties in the Israel-Palestine conflict have damaged its power despite China’s diplomatic efforts and economic investments. These insights pave the research contends that China's Middle Eastern engagement is a complicated interaction between its capabilities and constraints shaped by the power dynamics and worldwide linkages.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Power, and Power Dynamics
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Palestine

328. The Adaptation of Land Forces to the New Multipolar Order

Author:: Ricardo J. Vieira
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: The adaptation of land forces to the new multipolar order is essential for understanding the current dynamics of the International System. This essay analyses the relationship between shifts in global polarity and the reorganisation of land forces, investigating whether strategic competition is driving a return to a conventional era. The research findings indicate that the unipolar era favoured disarmament policies, whereas multipolarity has intensified geopolitical tensions, making military power a central element of state security. The rise of revisionist powers, such as Russia and China, has reinforced the need for conventional rearmament. The 2022 invasion of Ukraine exemplifies this transition, highlighting the renewed relevance of land forces and conventional logistics. A mechanised, division-level military structure has replaced the expeditionary model of the unipolar era. It is concluded that multipolarity drives conventional militarisation, although other factors may also influence this trend.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Affairs, Multipolarity, International System, and Superpowers
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Asia

329. Generation Xi: Youth Attitudes Toward Civic Engagement in China

Author:: Jessica C. Teets and Qin Gao
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: November 14, 2025 — Jessica Teets presents findings on how China’s “COVID generation,” youth who came of age during lockdowns, are reshaping norms of civic engagement. Drawing on original survey data from the Civic Participation in China Surveys (2018-2024), she explores shifting attitudes toward volunteering, local governance, and state-society relations across generational lines. Speaker: Jessica C. Teets is a Professor at Middlebury College, and Guang Biao Distinguished Chair Professor at Zhejiang University. Her research focuses on governance in authoritarian regimes, especially the role of civic participation. She is the author of "Civil Society Under Authoritarianism: The China Model" (Cambridge University Press, 2014) and has a new book manuscript (with Dr. Xiang Gao) under review on changing governance under Xi Jinping, tentatively titled "Beyond Fragmented Authoritarianism." Moderator: Qin Gao, Maurice V. Russell Professor of Social Policy and Social Work Practice; Acting Director of the Asian American Initiative; Associate Dean for Doctoral Education; Director of China Center for Social Policy, Columbia School of Social Work
Topic:: Governance, Xi Jinping, COVID-19, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: China and Asia

330. Status Recognition and Great Power Conflicts Today: The US, China, and Russia

Author:: Thomas J. Christensen and T.V. Paul
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: October 17, 2025 — The violent conflict in Ukraine triggered by Russia, China’s drift away from a “peaceful rise” strategy, and America’s near abandonment of liberal leadership have created deep uncertainty. T. V. Paul's new book project asks: Under what conditions do great powers abandon or significantly alter relatively peaceful grand strategies for reasons of status? It examines how strategic interaction between great powers—and the pivotal role of domestic coalitions—shapes expectations of status reciprocity and recognition leading to great power conflicts. The author of multiple books, T. V. Paul is the Distinguished James McGill Professor in the Department of Political Science at McGill University. Moderator Thomas J. Christensen is James T. Shotwell Professor of International Relations at the School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University and the Director of its China and the World Program.
Topic:: Grand Strategy, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

331. Bilahari Kausikan: The Cold War, Russia-China Relations, and the Making (and Unmaking?) of SE Asia

Author:: Andrew J. Nathan, Alexander Cooley, and Bilahari Kausikan
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: April 8, 2025 — For the 2025 Borton-Mosely Distinguished Lecture at Columbia University, veteran Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan shares his insights into how the Cold War and the rivalry between China and the U.S.S.R. gave rise to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the federation of states that was founded in 1967 to promote regional stability—and how ASEAN, in turn, helped shape the idea of Southeast Asia as a cohesive region with its own identity. Moderators: Andrew J. Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Columbia University; Alexander Cooley, Vice Provost for Research, Libraries, and Academic Centers, Barnard College; Claire Tow Professor of Political Science, Barnard College; Harriman Institute, Columbia University.
Topic:: Cold War, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, ASEAN, Rivalry, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

332. Bureaucracies at War: China’s Decision-Making in Comparative Perspective

Author:: Tyler Jost and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: October 1, 2025 — When are China’s leaders able to extract quality information from their diplomatic, defense and intelligence bureaucracies during international crises? Tyler Jost studies how China’s leaders deal with the trade-off between institutional designs that offer political security and those that yield quality information. As an illustration, he uses the historical cases of the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict and the 1999 India-Pakistan Kargil War. Speaker: Tyler Jost, Watson Institute Assistant Professor of China Studies, Assistant Professor of Political Science, International and Public Affairs, Brown University Moderator: Andrew J. Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science, Columbia University
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Intelligence, Armed Conflict, and Political Security
Political Geography:: China and Asia

333. Legacy or Liability? Auditing U.S. Alliances to Compete with China

Author:: Christopher S. Chivvis, Kristin Zhu, Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner, Maeve Sockwell, Lauren Morganbesser, and Senkai Hsia
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Allies are essential to U.S. strategic competition with China but carry costs and risks that require continuous, realistic management. Polarization in Washington has unfortunately impeded the correct approach: critics on the right are too narrowly focused on military power while advocates on the left underplay the real costs and risks involved in U.S. defense commitments. Across the political spectrum, experts are now calling on allies to shoulder more of the burden for security in the Indo-Pacific. This is positive, but plans to deepen U.S. alliances also need to weigh allied political will and the danger of being drawn into conflicts that do not serve vital U.S. interests. This report inventories these costs and benefits for seven key alliances across eight core areas of U.S.-China strategic competition. We conclude that: Japan can further U.S. aims with China across all eight categories, especially as its defense spending increases. It is willing to cooperate in several key areas and poses low risk of entanglement. Australia can make contributions at a more modest level. Political will to cooperate with the United States has increased but is not steady. Risk of entanglement is low. South Korea is reluctant to use its economic and military power to counter China but poses a substantial military burden and risk on the United States. Chip manufacturing and other nonmilitary capabilities help strengthen the case for the alliance. Key European allies—France, Germany, and the UK—will have a limited military role in the Indo-Pacific, but can support important technological, diplomatic, and political objectives of U.S. China strategy. The Philippines has advantageous military geography—but lacks other benefits and poses an entanglement risk in the South China Sea. We stress that if Washington consistently pursues a statecraft that undermines allied trust in the United States, allied leaders will not support U.S. global objectives, weakening America’s hand in competition with China. Some recent U.S. policies, such as the Trump administration’s broad tariffs, appear to have eroded trust. The United States does not need a revolution in its alliances, which remain a source of strength for America at a time when U.S. power is under strain globally. But Washington does need to move with greater caution when deepening them. Ensuring alliances serve the needs of American citizens at a time when the world is in flux will require realism, periodic reassessment, and continuous adaptation.
Topic:: Alliance, Strategic Competition, Polarization, Statecraft, and Great Powers
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Australia, North America, and United States of America

334. Energy and Natural Resources in the Argentina-China Relationship: Interests, Cooperation and Challenges

Author:: Julian Bilmes
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The aim of this article is to analyze the outstanding role that energy and natural resources play in the increasing relationship between China and Argentina to inquire what type of development is outlined. These topics have a central role in terms of the bilateral trade balance, investment, funding and around cooperation mechanisms, due to Argentine bet to build new export complexes and Chinese needs for its energy and supply security. Oil and gas, mining and different type of energy generation are analyzed: nuclear, hydroelectric, solar and wind, highlighting Chinese firms positioning as well as bilateral cooperation agreements, its obstacles and challenges
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

335. Brazil-China Relations Under Lula and Bolsonaro: Rapprochement and Distancing Through Discourse

Author:: Paulo Afonso Brardo Duarte and Lucas Braga Dutra
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article aims to provide a comparative analysis of Sino-Brazilian relations from the Brazilian perspective during the presidencies of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Messias Bolsonaro. This analysis is based on the examination of speeches made by both presidents during their respective terms. Drawing on the French tradition of Discourse Analysis, the study seeks to comprehend how the two presidents behaved in the context of the Brazil-China relationship throughout their respective terms. This study is based on the hypothesis that there was a desire to bring the relationship between the two countries closer during Lula's administration and an attempt to distance it, at least in President Bolsonaro's informal speeches, which was not, however, corroborated by his formal speeches.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Jair Bolsonaro, Discourse, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

336. Brazil-China Relations: A Three-Decade Analysis of Knowledge Diplomacy (1994–2024)

Author:: Rodrigo Franklin Frogeri, Francisco Jose Leandro, and Yichao Li
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: China’s rise has influenced global affairs, including its relations with Brazil. This study explores knowledge diplomacy - academic collaborations forming innovation networks that complement traditional state diplomacy. Marking 30 years of strategic partnership (1993-2023) and 50 years of Sino-Brazilian diplomatic relations (1974-2024), the research poses and addresses the following question: “To what extent does knowledge diplomacy manifest in Brazil–China bilateral relations?”. Using a systematic literature review and social network analysis, the findings indicate that knowledge diplomacy between Brazil and China remains in its nascent stages. Only three initiatives related to the co-production of scientific knowledge were identified, involving a total of six researchers from both countries. Despite the comprehensiveness of the analysis, the results reveal that state-level, proactive engagement between higher education institutions in Brazil and China has remained superficial throughout the three decades under examination.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Soft Power, Higher Education, Social Networks, Network Analysis, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

337. Open-access Challenging Dollar Dominance? How Brazil Responds to RMB Internationalization

Author:: Thaís Araripe, Luiza Peruffo, and Andre Moreira Cunha
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article explores the role of China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), in Brazil, analyzing how the country positions itself in the shift toward alternative currencies to the U.S. dollar amidst changing global monetary power. It addresses three key questions: How widely is the RMB used in Brazil’s economy? What institutional measures support RMB adoption in Brazil? And what are the implications of this engagement for Brazil’s role in the international monetary and financial system? Findings indicate a modest but growing RMB integration in Brazil. Rather than embarking on a de-dollarization process, Brazil appears to be employing an incremental approach – one that leverages selective institutional measures to diversify its financial risks while preserving its strategic ties with the dominant global currency.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Developing World, Economy, Currency, Internationalization, De-Dollarization, International Monetary and Financial System, and Economic Sovereignty
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

338. Between distrust and strategic opportunity: Chinese scholars discuss the U.S. impact in Sino-Latin American relations

Author:: Antonio José Pagán Sánchez
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This study examines how academic publications in China have interpreted the U.S. impact on Sino-Latin American relations between 2009 and 2024. This period encompasses three different U.S. presidents: Barack Obama, Donald Trump (first presidency), and Joe Biden. The findings indicate that, strikingly, distrust toward the U.S. was already present well before U.S.-China tensions erupted during Trump’s presidency, and that publications consulted perceived this administration as a strategic opportunity for China to expand its presence in the region. Under Biden, distrust toward the United States remained, and his presidency was not seen as much of a strategic opportunity. The study also highlights the consistent recommendation among Chinese scholars for Beijing to adopt a conciliatory approach toward Washington.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Academia, Donald Trump, Rivalry, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Latin America

339. Too Big to Dock: Brazil-China Iron Trade and the Valemax Vessels Crisis

Author:: Victor Thives
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the Valemax crisis to explore how regulatory barriers and domestic interests shape trade. When the Valemax, vessels owned by Brazil’s giant mining company Vale, were barred from Chinese ports, allegedly due to safety concerns, a diplomatic and commercial impasse emerged. Drawing on the Bureaucratic Politics Model, the study shows how Brazilian state agencies coordinated to defend Vale’s interests, while China protected its shipping sector. The eventual resolution, by transferring ship ownership to Chinese State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), illustrates how foreign firms must adapt to China’s political economy. The case highlights the influence of large companies on foreign policy and the complexities of commercial diplomacy in asymmetric economic relationships.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Regulation, Economy, Trade, Bureaucracy, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

340. The Third World Imperative: How Brazil-China Relations Emerge from the Aftershock of Richard Nixon’s Latin American Foreign Policy

Author:: Pablo Muñoz
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article analyzes the emergence of Brazil-China relations in the context of Richard Nixon’s foreign policy toward Latin America. It examines how American perceptions of Brazil as a potential competitor, and the geopolitical economic maneuvers of the Nixon administration influenced Brazil’s foreign policy decisions. The article highlights Brazil’s growing nationalism and its engagement with the Third World, including economic interactions with the Soviet Union and the eventual establishment of relations with mainland China. Ultimately, it argues that U.S. foreign policy played a significant role in shaping Brazil’s understanding of its Third World imperative, paving the way for closer relations with China that continue to this day.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Nationalism, Third World, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

341. Defining the Belt and Road: How Ideas and Interests Shaped Argentina’s Approach to the Initiative

Author:: Zara C. Albright
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: How do ideas and identities affect how countries evaluate joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative? This article employs process tracing to analyze Argentina’s negotiations prior to its accession in February 2022. Argentina is a crucial case to explain because both the Macri and Fernández governments faced similar material benefits of infrastructure finance. However, the Macri government defined the BRI as a form of alignment with China, while the Fernández government interpreted it as South-South cooperation and autonomy from Western-led financial institutions. These findings show that developing countries evaluate both the material and symbolic costs and benefits of the BRI.
Topic:: International Relations, Finance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Development Finance
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Argentina, and South America

342. Does a weak social safety net hold back private consumption in China?

Author:: Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Many experts see China’s economy as constrained because of a weak social safety net, especially the retirement system, resulting in anemic domestic consumption spending. This view is out of date. Recent data indicate that China has expanded many parts of its social safety net and that consumption spending has accelerated. Social expenditures in China have more than doubled as a share of GDP since 2010 and are on par with Mexico and Turkey. But given China’s aging population, safety net spending and domestic consumption spending will need to expand further to put China’s economy on a more sustainable path. The latest data should clear the cobwebs of misunderstanding that have led to both complacency and unnecessary alarm about China’s economic prospects among observers in the United States and other countries. China’s government is hardly unaware of the importance of stronger household consumption and has announced policies to increase consumer spending, including more generous pension benefits for farmers and rural migrant workers. If these initiatives are implemented, the growth of household consumption is likely to accelerate.
Topic:: Government, Economic Growth, Safety Net, and Consumer Behavior
Political Geography:: China and Asia

343. Addressing China’s military expansion in West Africa and beyond

Author:: Tressa Guenov
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The next National Defense Strategy (NDS) is being drafted at a critical moment when the United States risks permanently ceding strategic influence to China in Africa—especially West Africa—without a reimagined approach to the continent. With lifesaving foreign assistance drastically reduced due to the current administration’s budget cuts to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and State Department programs, along with uncertain economic effects from tariffs, the United States has voluntarily weakened its diplomatic and economic tools to influence and support Africa. This reality gives additional weight to the importance of defense diplomacy and military cooperation as critical means by which the United States can exercise strategic influence in the region. While the US administration may be looking to narrow the United States’ role on the continent, Africa is too vast, important, and complex to attempt bilateral defense diplomacy, military-to-military relations, and counterterrorism efforts on the cheap, by proxy, or from afar. Key issues for the Department of Defense (DoD) include acknowledging the looming strategic dilemma posed by China’s increased influence in Africa; developing a cohesive and responsive strategy to counter that influence; managing bilateral defense relationships; and addressing other regional priorities such as Russia’s growing influence and counterterrorism issues, which also have inextricable connections to China. The new NDS needs to lay a foundation to address these challenges. The alternative is over-regionalization of the China challenge to the Indo-Pacific, which could impose short-sighted limitations that will affect the US role in Africa for years to come.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

344. Chinese fishing in West Africa: Responding to the environmental and social impacts

Author:: Ebimboere Seiyafa, Awa Niang Fall, Ellis Adjei Adams, Kadidia Kane, Isa Elegbebe Olalekan, Kodjo N'Souvi, and Salamatu Joana Tannor
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Chinese companies—including both state-backed firms and private actors—have rapidly expanded into West Africa’s fishing sector, often operating illegally in prohibited coastal waters. Chinese vessels employ bottom trawling and other destructive methods, which—combined with limited oversight and poor enforcement of national and transboundary laws—have caused declining fish stocks, weakened local fishery economies, and deteriorated coastal water quality. This brief examines the ecological and social risks posed by Chinese fishing in West Africa and offers policy recommendations to strengthen legal protections and enhance regional cooperation to safeguard the region’s fisheries and water systems.
Topic:: Climate Change, Corruption, Environment, Politics, Fishing, and Energy
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and West Africa

345. China’s Violation of Sanctions Vis-à-Vis North Korea

Author:: Gordon G. Chang
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: China, at sea and at land crossings, is facilitating commerce with North Korea that clearly violates U.N. Security Council sanctions. Beijing is also interfering in sanctions-enforcement activity in its peripheral seas. Hong Kong, due to Beijing’s policies, has become a major hub of illicit activities. China had done its best to disrupt the work of the U.N.’s Panel of Experts. American sanctions policy has been ineffective, in large part because Washington policymakers do not understand China’s top-down communist system. China, despite what many think, is not deeply concerned about the growing Russia-North Korea relationship. Beijing may have even masterminded the North’s recent sales of weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine and its sending of soldiers to the war there.
Topic:: Sanctions, Law of the Sea, Maritime, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

346. Diversification Through Trade: Europe’s FTA Agenda

Author:: Filippo Fasulo and Paola Magri
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Amid renewed negotiations between the United States and China and the recent meetings of Donald Trump in Asia, global trade dynamics are once again shifting toward a more strategic dimension. While Washington and Beijing explore a framework to ease tariff tensions and expand cooperation in areas such as critical minerals and supply chains, the European Union is stepping up its own trade diplomacy. Seeking to strengthen economic security and reduce strategic dependencies, the EU is advancing a broad agenda of free trade agreements across Latin America (through Mercosur), ASEAN, Central Asia, and the MENA region, as well as with key partners such as Japan, Australia, and India. These initiatives aim not only to open markets but also to foster resilience, sustainable growth, and geopolitical balance in a rapidly evolving global landscape. Where do these negotiations stand today, and what are the key issues that remain to be addressed with these partners?
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Diversification, Trade, Protectionism, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

347. European exports in geopolitical storms

Author:: Niclas Poitiers, Madalena Barata da Rocha, and Nicolas Boivin
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The global trading system is undergoing profound changes, and current developments in the US and China will have significant implications for the European economy. Both countries were at the heart of globalisation but are now becoming less dynamic export markets. Chinese economic growth is expected to slow down as pressures on the economy accumulate. In the United States, trade policy has taken a sharp inward turn. For the EU, these shifts point to structurally weakening demand growth from two of its largest trading partners, which together account for nearly 30 percent of all EU-generated value-added exports. However, in this paper we show that the growth of EU exports is driven to a much greater extent by demand in other markets, and we argue for a stronger policy focus on the 70 percent of EU value added in trade with other partners. While reduced demand from the US or China would pose challenges – especially for highly exposed sectors like pharmaceuticals – there remains substantial scope for the EU to diversify and expand trade with the rest of the world. The EU already has an extensive network of trade agreements, covering 74 percent of trade with partners other than the US and China. Deepening these relationships and forging new partnerships should be priorities. Offering a stable and rules-based trade regime can help offset losses from reduced integration with the US and China.
Topic:: European Union, Geopolitics, Trade Policy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

348. Aimless Rivalry The Futility of US–China Competition in the Middle East

Author:: Jon Hoffman
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Fear in Washington over China’s expanding regional presence is quickly becoming a new rationale for an expansive US foreign policy in the Middle East. But China remains an opportunistic actor in the Middle East, driven by practical needs, not by aspirations to dominate the region. Beijing lacks the ability and desire to assume a dominant position in the Middle East, and its ability to jeopardize US regional interests is limited. Centering US Middle East policy on competition with China is a recipe for disaster. It is an aimless rivalry divorced from concrete US interests. The United States has little to fear from China in the Middle East. By viewing every development in the Middle East through the framework of zero-sum competition with China, Washington is operating on faulty assumptions that will result in counterproductive policies. If navigated correctly, the return of multipolarity to the Middle East can be a net benefit for the United States, allowing Washington to disentangle itself from the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

349. Two decades of Chinese industry subsidies

Author:: Shuhui Xiang, Xinran Yin, and Yuan Zi
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: This paper constructs a new database based on China's WTO subsidy notifications (2001–2022) and provides the first systematic overview of China's industrial subsidies over the past two decades. Five findings emerge. First, subsidies expanded rapidly, but direct fiscal support stabilized around 0.8 percent of GDP after 2008. Second, China has employed more subsidies than its income level would suggest, with striking policy persistence. Third, subsidies and tax incentives for FDI have declined, while those targeting specific industries and promoting innovation have grown. Fourth, wealthier and more trade-oriented provinces provide more local subsidies. Finally, subsidies are concentrated in a few sectors, and measures based on counts versus values reveal different patterns. These patterns reveal how China's subsidy strategy has evolved, offering insights to state-led development in the 21st century.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Innovation, WTO, and Subsidies
Political Geography:: China and Asia

350. South Koreans’ Perceptions of Blocs between ROK-US-Japan and DPRK-China-Russia and Support for Nuclear Armament: 2025 EAI Public Opinion Poll on East Asia

Author:: Yang Gyu Kim and Inhwan Oh
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:: Professor Yang Gyu Kim of Korea National Defense University and EAI Senior Research Fellow Inhwan Oh analyze the correlation between public perceptions of blocs between ROK-US-Japan and DPRK-China-Russia and South Koreans` support for nuclear armament, drawing on the results of the 2025 EAI Public Opinion Poll on East Asia. Kim and Oh find that perceptions of growing U.S.-China rivalry have a significant impact on South Koreans` support for nuclear armament, which reached a new high this year. Based on their analysis, the authors suggest that the Lee administration should use more sophisticated policy language to explain the U.S.-China rivalry, which is unfolding in a different form than the Cold War, and be careful not to further provoke public support for nuclear armament.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Public Opinion, Rivalry, and Polls
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

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