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5262. Going Too Far: Bush's Pledge to Defend Taiwan
- Author:
- Ted Galen Carpenter
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- When he pledged to do whatever was necessary—even use U.S. military forces—to help Taiwan defend itself, President George W. Bush seemingly replaced Washington's long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” with a policy of strategic clarity. Although the president and his advisers subsequently retreated from his initial rhetorical stance, both China and Taiwan are likely to believe that Bush's original statement accurately reflects U.S. policy. That creates an extremely dangerous situation for the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Washington, Taiwan, and Asia
5263. China And US Foreign Policy In The Asia-Pacific: Living With American Dominance
- Author:
- Mike Smith and Nicholas Khoo
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Second World War, US foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific has been characterized by the assertion of American dominance. To this end, policy-makers in Washington have adopted a varied policy towards China. From 1950 to 1972, the US pursued a containment policy designed to thwart the revolutionary goals of Maoist foreign policy. Beginning with Nixon's rapprochement with Beijing in 1972, US policy was dramatically altered to meet the overriding goal of deterring the Soviet threat. The US and China actively cooperated to contain Soviet and Vietnamese influence in Northeast and Southeast Asia. The end of the Cold War, preceded shortly before by the Tiananmen massacre, saw another shift in the US position, whereby China was no longer looked upon with favour in Washington. Acting on his presidential campaign promises not to repeat George Bush Senior's policy of 'coddling dictators'in Beijing, President Clinton initially enacted a policy that explicitly linked China's human rights record to the renewal of most favoured- nation trade status with the US. When this linkage failed, a striking policy reversal occurred as the Clinton administration adopted an unrestrained engagement policy in which it eventually underplayed Sino-US differences in the spheres of trade, human rights, and strategic-military ties.
- Topic:
- Security and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, Washington, Beijing, and Asia
5264. The India-China Relationship: What the United States Needs to Know
- Author:
- Justin Sommers and Rapporteur
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the Asia Society are pleased to present the report of our conference entitled “The India-China Relationship: What the United States Needs to Know,” which took place in Washington, D.C., on November 30, 2001. The conference, engaging experts and policymakers both in and out of government, was one phase in a larger joint project of the two organizations that will result in a scholarly volume.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, South Asia, Washington, India, and Asia
5265. What Drove Relative Wages in France? Structural Decomposition Analysis in a General Equilibrium Framework, 1970-92
- Author:
- Sébastien Jean and Olivier Bontout
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- This paper confronts a CGE model to observed evolutions in France, between 1970 and 1992, through a structural decomposition analysis. The choice of the model and the assumption of constant elasticities over time enable the structural change of the economy between two equilibria to be summarised through a set of four types of state variables, reflecting the effect of technical change, changes in factor supplies, shifts in consumption patterns, and international trade. Simulations then allow the contribution of each of these shocks to be assessed. We find that technical change had a strong positive impact on the relative wage of skilled to unskilled workers, while the impact of changes in factor supplies is strongly negative. The effect of international trade is far less important. However, if we take into account a trade-induced effect on productivity, then we find that trade substantially increased wage inequalities.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and France
5266. Missile Defence and European Security
- Author:
- François Heisbourg, Klaus Becher, Alexander Pikayev, and Ivo H. Daalder
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- European NATO countries have been spectators to the debate about defending the US against ballistic missile attacks. While there have been national differences in Europe's reactions to the national missile defence (NMD) programme, it is obvious that most Europeans don't like it. The French seem somewhat more convinced than others that missile defence is inherently foolish and unworkable. Some British experts seem to insist more than others that any programme that might undermine NATO's nuclear deterrence and strategic unity should be avoided. And perhaps Germans, more than others, worry about perceived dangers to the ABM and other arms control treaties, and generally about relations with Russia. Most Europeans at present believe that US defence against long-range ballistic missiles is a slap in the face for Russia, a dangerous provocation for China and an inadequate response to the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and missile technology.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Germany
5267. HIV/AIDS as a Security Issue
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- It is projected that, at current rates, more than 100 million people worldwide will have been infected with HIV by 2005. Where the epidemic has hit hardest, Sub-Saharan Africa, experts believe AIDS will eventually kill one in four adults. Seven countries already have adult prevalence rates above 20 per cent of the population.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, Asia, and Southeast Asia
5268. Foreign Direct Investment in China: Effects on Growth and Economic Performance
- Author:
- Edward M. Graham and Erika Wada
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- By almost all accounts, foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has been one of the major success stories of the past 10 years. Starting from a base of less than $19 billion in 1990, the stock of FDI in China rose to over $300 billion at the end of 1999. Ranked by the stock of inward FDI, China thus has become the leader among all developing nations and second among the APEC nations (only the United States holds a larger stock of inward FDI). China's FDI consists largely of greenfield investment, while inward FDI in the United States by contrast has been generated more by takeover of existing enterprises than by new establishment, a point developed later in this paper. The majority of FDI in China has originated from elsewhere in developing Asia (i.e., not including Japan). Hong Kong, now a largely self-governing “special autonomous region” of China itself, has been the largest source of record. The dominance of Hong Kong, however, is somewhat illusory in that much FDI nominally from Hong Kong in reality is from elsewhere. Some of what is listed as Hong Kong-source FDI in China is, in fact, investment by domestic Chinese that is “round-tripped” through Hong Kong. Other FDI in China listed as Hong Kong in origin is in reality from various western nations and Taiwan that is placed into China via Hong Kong intermediaries. Alas, no published records exist to indicate exactly how much FDI in China that is nominally from Hong Kong is in fact attributable to other nations.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Hong Kong
5269. Thinking Beyond the Stalemate in U.S. - Iranian Relations, Volume I - Policy Review
- Author:
- Brent Scowcroft, C. Richard Nelson, Lee H. Hamilton, and James Shlesinger
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The current stalemate between the United States and Iran, while emotionally satisfying to many Americans, does not serve overall U.S. interests well. It hinders the achievement of several key U.S. geopolitical interests, especially over the longer term. These interests include, but are not limited to, regional stability, energy security, and the broader and evolving geopolitical relationships between the United States and China and Russia in the Persian Gulf and Caspian basin. Furthermore, the leading industrial countries are moving to improve relations with Iran.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, and Middle East
5270. Rough Waters in the South China Sea: Navigation Issues and Confidence-Building Measures
- Author:
- Ji Guoxing
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In the wake of a collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter off the coast of Hainan in April 2001, verbal skirmishing between the United States and China revealed sharply different conceptions of jurisdictional and navigational principles. These differences persist and will likely be the cause of future conflicts; they have already caused strife among countries ringing the South China Sea. Central to these conflicts are the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) that extend 200 nm into the sea from coastal nations' baselines. Created by the UN Law of the Sea Convention, these zones attempt to accommodate coastal states' interest in controlling offshore resources and maritime powers' interests in maintaining freedom of navigation. But ambiguities in the Convention's language combined with coastal states' proliferating EEZ claims have created a tinderbox. The situation will remain volatile as long as the focus remains on jurisdictional disputes. But confidence-building efforts aimed more narrowly on practical navigation issues and managing “incidents at sea” offer a starting point for first bilateral and then multilateral agreements. In the wake of a collision between a U.S. spy plane and a Chinese jet fighter off the coast of Hainan in April 2001, verbal skirmishing between the United States and China revealed sharply different conceptions of jurisdictional and navigational principles. These differences persist and will likely be the cause of future conflicts; they have already caused strife among countries ringing the South China Sea. Central to these conflicts are the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) that extend 200 nm into the sea from coastal nations' baselines. Created by the UN Law of the Sea Convention, these zones attempt to accommodate coastal states' interest in controlling offshore resources and maritime powers' interests in maintaining freedom of navigation. But ambiguities in the Convention's language combined with coastal states' proliferating EEZ claims have created a tinderbox. The situation will remain volatile as long as the focus remains on jurisdictional disputes. But confidence-building efforts aimed more narrowly on practical navigation issues and managing “incidents at sea” offer a starting point for first bilateral and then multilateral agreements.
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and China