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5001. Chinese Foreign Policy and the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Il-Keun Park
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
China faces on its east the Tumen River and the Western Sea, located in the north and the west of Korea, respectively. China's Shandong Province is only 190 miles across the Western Sea from Korea. Chinese culture has affected Asian nations for 2,000 years, with Korea serving as a geostrategic intersection linking continental with maritime countries, and allowing the transmission of Chinese ideas. Thus, we can say that China has had a special relationship with Korea.
Political Geography:
China and Korea

5002. China's Economy: Reform and Perspectives

Author:
Gregory C. Chow
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
It is now just over twenty years since China initiated its economic reform in 1978. Since then its average rate of growth of GDP has been a phenomenal 9.5 percent per year. This essay reviews the reform process, discusses the impact of the current Asian financial crisis, and attempts to assess the prospects of China's economy in the future.
Political Geography:
China

5003. United States—Iraq Policy

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
In the past nine months, the United States and the United Kingdom have pursued a low-intensity military campaign against Iraq. Such actions have been made easier by a lack of political scrutiny. However, the US administration in particular now faces mounting criticism from France, China and Russia, who favour a relaxation of policy, and domestic US interest groups favouring a more activist stance. Despite these pressures, US President Bill Clinton is unlikely to change policy significantly in his remaining 18 months of office.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East, and France

5004. The Crisis in Asia: An Empirical Assessment

Author:
Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The economies of South East Asia and Korea have been shaken by a financial and economic crisis that has enveloped the region since mid 1997. There are competing explanations for the cause of the crisis however most commentators would agree that a major shock that impacted on the countries has been a dramatic increase in the perceived risks of investing in these economies. This paper explores the impact of a re-evaluation of the risk in the Asian economies focussing on the differential real consequences of a temporary versus more permanent rise in risk. It contributes to our understanding of the possible consequences of the Asia crisis by applying a global simulation model that captures both the flow of goods as well as international capital flows between countries. The real impacts on the Asian economies of a rise in risk perceptions in the model are large and consistent with observed adjustment. However the spillovers to the rest of the world are relatively small because the loss in export demand that accompanies the crisis in Asia is offset by a fall in long term interest rates as capital flows out of Asia into the non-Asian OECD economies. Thus strong domestic demand in economies such as the US induced by the general equilibrium effects of the reallocation of financial capital can more than offset the consequences of lower export growth. The analysis also highlights the impacts on global trade balances reflecting the movements of global capital and points to both potential problems and lesson for policymakers over the coming years.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

5005. The Global Economic Impacts of Trade and Financial Reform in China

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and KK Tang
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Despite the setbacks from the recent Asian currency crisis, the ascendancy of Asia as an economic centre of world economic activity is likely to continue into the 21st century. A key issue that will shape the role of Asia, and indeed the shape of the world economy in the 21st century, is the economic development of China. To date China has successfully weathered the currency storm in Asia and continues on a program of economic reform. If anything, the problems of Japan and Korea provide powerful lessons for other countries undergoing rapid economic growth and structural change. These lessons include the importance of a well developed financial sector with lending and investment decisions based on market signals rather than government directives. Whether China can further integrate smoothly into global markets and sustain the fast growth of the last few decades will be a crucial development in the world economy. In this paper, we explore the impacts of continued Chinese economic reform with a focus on the role of international financial flows both in the adjustment within China as well as in the transmission of Chinese reforms to the rest of the world.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

5006. Regional and Multilateral Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Trade, Investment and Welfare

Author:
Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper explores the impact on economies of trade liberalization under alternative regional and multilateral arrangements: unilateral liberalization; liberalization as part of the ASEAN regional grouping; liberalization as part of the APEC regional grouping; or liberalization as part of a multilateral trade liberalization regime. The paper is based on a Dynamic Intertemporal General Equilibrium model (DIGEM) called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model. It is shown that the long run gains from a country's own liberalization tend to be large relative to the gains from other countries liberalizing although this varies across countries. It is also shown that there is a significant difference between the effects on GDP (production location) and the effects on consumption per capita of the alternative liberalization approaches across countries. The timing of liberalization is also shown to matter. With open capital markets the gains from credibly announced trade liberalization are realized before the reforms are put in place because there is a rise in global investment which raises the global capital stock. In addition there is a reallocation of capital via financial market adjustment. This paper also demonstrates that for some economies, there can be short run adjustment costs to trade liberalization because resources cannot be instantly reallocated across sectors in an economy. These adjustment costs from own liberalization can be reduced if more countries also liberalize. The nature of the dynamic adjustment suggests that other macroeconomic policies may play an important role during the early period of phased-in trade liberalization.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

5007. Rapid Economic Growth in China: Implications for the World Economy

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Yiping Huang
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the past decade and its potential for strong growth into the foreseeable future have caused anxieties in the rest of the world. Some commentators see Chinese growth wholly in terms of competition for trade and investment opportunities with other developing economies and a major cause of structural adjustments in the advanced industrialized economies. In particular there have been warnings of severe consequences for international agricultural markets. In this paper we use a dynamic general equilibrium model called the G-CUBED model (developed by McKibbin and Wilcoxen) to explore possible future paths of the Chinese economy based on projections of population growth, sectoral productivity growth, energy efficiency and technical change in the Chinese economy. This model captures not only the composition of the direct trade impacts of developments in the Chinese economy but also the implications of the endogenous flows of financial capital on macroeconomic adjustment in the world economy. The study focuses on the period from 1990 to 2020. Rather than being a problem for the world economy, we find strong growth in China is beneficial for the world economy directly through raising world incomes.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

5008. The Transmission of Productivity and Investment Shocks in the Asia Pacific Region

Author:
Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
An important aspect of macroeconomic interdependence in the Asia Pacific region is the adjustment of trade and current account balances in response to changes in saving and investment rates in individual economies. Greater trade flows, reliance on imported intermediate goods as well as more integrated capital markets imply that shifts in private or public saving and investment rates in an economy in the region can potentially have large impacts on other economies. This paper explores the quantitative nature of these linkages by focusing on a number of shocks within the context of a new dynamic multi-sector global model called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model (AP-GCUBED). This model integrates sectoral adjustment with macroeconomic interdependence including explicit treatment of capital flows to explore the implications of a variety of productivity and investment shocks in the Asia Pacific Region. The first shock considered is a permanent decline in private investment in Japan. The second shock is a temporary rise in total factor productivity growth in China. The fall in Japanese investment is found to have a significant effect on trade flows and financial flows in the region whereas the rise in Chinese productivity has a quite different effect on the region.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

5009. Blunder in the Balkans: The Clinton Administration's Bungled War against Serbia

Author:
Christopher Layne
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Clinton administration has made one miscalculation after another in dealing with the Kosovo crisis. U.S. officials and their NATO colleagues never understood the historical and emotional importance of Kosovo to the Serbia n people, believing instead that Belgrade's harsh repression of the ethnic Albanian secessionist movement in Kosovo merely reflected the will of President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. The administration's foreign policy team mistakenly concluded that, under a threat of air strikes, the Yugoslav government would sign a dictate d peace accord (the Rambouillet agreement) to be implemented by a NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo. Even if Milosevic initially refused to sign the Rambouillet agreement, administration leaders believed that Belgrade would relent after a brief “demonstration” bombing campaign. Those calculations proved to be disastrously wrong.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

5010. Old Wine in New Bottles: The Pentagon's East Asia Security Strategy Report

Author:
Doug Bandow
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
To contain Soviet-led communism and, secondarily, to prevent a militarily resurgent Japan, Washington established a network of alliances, bases, and deployments throughout East Asia after World War II. By the 1990s the Soviet Union had imploded, China had become a reasonably restrained international player, and other communist states had lost their ideological edge. At the same time, the noncommunist nations had leaped ahead economically. Despite such momentous developments, however, U.S. policy remains fundamentally the same.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Washington, Israel, and Soviet Union

5011. Wage Reform, Soft Budget Constraints and Competition

Author:
Jian Sun
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the Chinese economic reforms in 1978, there has been a series of effort to reform the labour compensation practice in state-owned enterprises to strengthen the link between pay and productivity. Despite the reforms, however, rapid increases in wage rates occurred in state-owned enterprises. Moreover, although state-owned enterprises have much lower productivity gains than non-state enterprises, they pay substantially higher wages and have faster wage growth.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5012. The Weightless Economy in Economic Development

Author:
Danny Quah
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Can the increasing significance of knowledge-products in national income—the growing weightless economy—influence economic development? Those technologies reduce "distance" between consumers and knowledge production. This paper analyzes a model embodying such a reduction. The model shows how demand-side attributes—consumer attitudes on complex goods; training, education, and skills for consumption (rather than production)—can importantly affect patterns of economic growth and development. Evidence from the failed Industrial Revolution in 14th-century China illustrates the empirical relevance of the analysis.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China

5013. The Buenos Aires Climate Conference:Outcome And Implications

Author:
Christiaan Vrolijk
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The Kyoto Protocol agreed in December 1997 was a landmark, but not an end point. Negotiations are on going to fill in the gaps left in the Protocol. From 2 to 14 November the Conference of Parties met again to follow up on Kyoto in its fourth session (COP-4) in Buenos Aires. After the media hype of the Japan meeting, the lack of news coverage was not entirely deserved. Although discussions had to focus on filling in the details in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, these details will determine just how big a step Kyoto was The Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) was negotiated at the \'Earth Summit\' in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and has entered into force in 1994. Under the Convention the Parties have committed themselves to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations \'at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system\'. The headline commitment for the countries listed in Annex I of the Convention, the industrialized countries, is to return greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels, and to show a reversal in the trend of growing emissions before the year 2000. The Conference of Parties meets annually as the supreme body of the Convention, dealing with various issues related to it. The Kyoto Protocol, negotiated at COP-3 in Japan, is a Protocol to the FCCC, and as such was also on the negotiating table of the COP in Argentina. It sets out renewed, and now legally binding, emission reduction commitments for the Annex B Parties (the industrialized and former COMECON countries). The overall commitments add up to a 5% reduction from 1990 in a basket of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, some industrial gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) and emissions and removals from land-use change and forestry (LUCF). After its entry into force, the Meeting of Parties (to the Kyoto Protocol) will take over the responsibility for the Protocol issues Many Annex B Parties that have taken up commitments under the Kyoto Protocol stressed the importance at working on the rules for the mechanisms of the Protocol. The EU also stressed the need for limits on the use of these mechanisms and a compliance regime. The G77/China stressed the importance of a debate on the adverse effects and impact of responses. One of the commentators said that Article 17 on international emissions trading \'contains the basic principles, but its main feature is the fact that it can be interpreted to anyone\'s liking\'. Many articles leave room for further work by the COP. Even if the text was not deliberately ambiguous, only general principles were described, so that the 170 Parties at the negotiations could reach agreement, with a later COP to decide on the details of the issue This paper will first briefly discuss the science of climate change and then consider the Buenos Aires Plan of Action and the most important individual issues of the conference.
Topic:
Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China

5014. Nesting the Alliances in the Emerging Context of Asia-Pacific Multilateral Processes: A U.S. Perspective

Author:
Douglas Paal
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
As Americans consider their options for protecting and advancing their interests in Asia in the twenty-first century, it is natural that there will be wide-ranging views and vigorous debate. Recent events such as the 1996 Taiwan crisis, the Asian economic meltdown in 1997, and the exchange of state visits by presidents Bill Clinton and Jiang Zemin in 1997 and 1998 have intensified, then moderated and redirected, much of the debate over a very short span of time. Two years ago, for example, the Chinese were worrying aloud about American efforts to “encircle” China. Now they talk about “building a constructive strategic partnership with the U.S.” Despite these ups and downs, however, the fundamental choices for the United States have remained largely the same.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Taiwan, and Asia

5015. China and the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea Alliances in a Changing Northeast Asia

Author:
Chu Shulong
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The American security alliances with Japan and South Korea have been a major concern of China's foreign and defense policies. China's position toward the alliances is determined by its foreign policy and security theories, doctrines, and principles; by its approach to a regional security mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region; by its bilateral relations with countries in Northeast Asia; and by incidental issues such as territorial disputes in Asia in which it is involved.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

5016. New Estimates of the United States - China Trade Balances

Author:
Lawrence J. Lau and K.C. Fung
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The United States and China have vastly different official estimates of the bilateral trade imbalance. The U.S. figures show that the United States had a merchandise trade deficit of US$57 billion vis-à-vis China in 1998 whereas the Chinese figures show that China had a merchandise trade surplus of only US$21 billion vis-à-vis the United States. There is a difference of US$36 billion. Which set of figures is right?
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

5017. Japan-ROK Security Relations: An American Perspective

Author:
Michael J. Green
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This monograph explores contemporary Japan-ROK security relations from the perspective of U.S. strategic interests in Asia. Japan and the Republic of Korea have been aligned but not allied since the beginning of the Cold War, and the United States has long been frustrated in its desire to strengthen the Japan-ROK leg of its network of bilateral alliances in Asia. The United States abandoned the goal of encouraging a formal U.S.-Japan-ROK alliance early on in the Cold War, and in the current strategic environment a trilateral alliance would probably be counterproductive. At the same time, however, the fluidity of East Asian security relations today has heightened the dangers of leaving the Japan-ROK security relationship in an ambiguous state. Closer Japan-ROK security cooperation will enhance U.S. efforts to maintain forward presence, manage diplomacy and potential crises on the Korean Peninsula, and integrate China as a cooperative partner in the region. In contrast, distant Japan-ROK relations would complicate all of these U.S. objectives. Hostile Japan-ROK relations, particularly in the context of Korean reunification, would have a spillover effect on Sino-U.S. relations and could return the region to the great-power rivalry of the last century.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

5018. The Korean-American Alliance and the "Rise of China": A Preliminary Assessment of Perceptual Changes and Strategic Choices

Author:
Jae Ho Chung
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Does history repeat itself? It appears so for Korea as an unfortunate geopolitical pawn of its stronger neighbors for the last century or so. History does not seem to repeat in quite the same way, however. As Chinese diplomat Huang Zunxian recommended in 1880 that Chosun (Korea's official designation during the Yi Dynasty) “side with the Qing” ( qinzhong ) while relegating the relative importance of Japan and the United States to the levels of “aligning and connecting” ( jieri and lianmei ), respectively, Korea remained for the most part the most loyal subsystem of the Sinic world order, thereby missing out on opportunities for self-strengthening and realignment and eventually becoming a Japanese colony. More than a hundred years later, the Republic of Korea (hereafter Korea) may now be about to confront a similar dilemma, but this time with a reversed order of preferences. That is to say, the rise of China, with which Korea has already accomplished diplomatic normalization, may gradually force the Seoul government to reconfigure its Cold War–based strategic thinking and reassess its half-century alliance relationship with the United States.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Korea

5019. Show of Force: The PLA and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis

Author:
Andrew Scobell
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China conducted a series of military exercises and missile tests in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait between July 1995 and March 1996. On July 18, 1995, Beijing announced that missile tests would be conducted targeting an area some 90 miles off the coast of northern Taiwan. Then, on three consecutive days, July 21, 22, and 23, a total of six DF-15 missiles were launched from sites in Fujian province—two per day. The following month, after a five-day advance warning, PLA naval vessels and aircraft conducted ten days of live-fire tests off the coast of Fujian. Further military exercises were conducted in mid-November to the south of the Strait, including joint operations involving air, land, and naval arms of the PLA. On March 5, 1996, Beijing announced it would soon begin another round of missile tests. This time they were to be targeted at seas less than fifty miles from Taiwan's busiest ports. On March 8, three DF-15 missiles were fired from bases in Fujian. Five days later, another DF-15 missile was launched. Finally, also after advanced warning, live-fire tests and war games were conducted off the coast of Fujian to the north of the Strait and to the south of the Strait between March 12 and March 25. The maneuvers included amphibious landing exercises and aerial bombing. Some forty naval vessels, two hundred and sixty aircraft, and an estimated 150,000 troops participated.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia

5020. The Cox Committee Report: An Assessment

Author:
Michael M. May, Alastair Iain Johnston, W.K.H. Panofsky, Marco Di Capua, and Lewis R. Franklin
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The Cox Commission of the U.S. Congress was established in June 1998 to investigate concerns over Chinese acquisition of sensitive U.S. missile and space technology in connection with the launching of U.S. civilian satellites using Chinese launchers on Chinese territory. The investigations were broadened in October 1998 to include alleged security problems and possible espionage at the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories. Some conclusions were released in January 1999 by the White House together with the administration's response. The full declassified (redacted) version of the report of the Cox Commission was released on May 25, 1999.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

5021. The Nonproliferation Regime under Siege

Author:
George Bunn
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Korea

5022. Carter Center Delegation Report: Village Elections in China and Agreement on Cooperation with the Ministry of Civil Affairs, People's Republic of China 2 Mar 1998

Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
At the invitation of the government of the People's Republic of China, The Carter Center sent a delegation to observe village elections in China from March 2-15, 1998. In addition to evaluating nine village elections in Jilin and Liaoning provinces, the nine-person team, led by Carter Center Fellow Dr. Robert Pastor, reached a long-term agreement with the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) on election-related projects.
Topic:
Civil War, Democratization, and International Organization
Political Geography:
China

5023. Curbed Markets?

Author:
Kellee S. Tsai
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Our country does not permit the establishment of private banks. We must continue to investigate and impose discipline on non-banking financial institutions and other creditors that charge high interest rates. This is clearly one of the most important measures for ensuring order in the entire financial system.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5024. Right Makes Might: Freedom and Power in the Information Age

Author:
David C. Gompert
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
China's emergence begs a fresh look at power in world affairs—more precisely, at how the spread of freedom and the integration of the global economy, due to the information revolution, are affecting the nature, concentration, and purpose of power. Perhaps such a look could improve the odds of responding wisely to China's rise.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Government, and International Law
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Soviet Union

5025. Pipeline Gas In Northeast Asia

Author:
Keun-Wook Paik and Jae-Yong Choi
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The lack of indigenous oil and gas resources in Northeast Asia is a real obstacle to the region's economic development, and the region has paid the price. The importance of the introduction of pipeline gas into Northeast Asia lies not only in diversifying supply sources but also in providing price leverage for the region's consumers. Despite many implementation problems, the Sino-Russian agreement on East Siberian gas and pipeline development laid a firm basis for the introduction of pipeline gas into the region, and this could fundamentally affect the region's energy supply balance in the coming decades. The introduction of pipeline gas will open a new era of multilateral cooperation in the region. It is now no longer a matter of whether but when and how this gas will be introduced. Northeast Asia — comprising China, Russian Asia (Siberia and the Far East), Korea and Japan — forms the world's biggest market for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Out of world trade totalling just over 100 bcm in 1996, 63.8 bcm was imported by Japan and 13 bcm by Korea, together representing 75% of the world total. Given that China is set to import both LNG and pipeline gas in the next decade, there will be further rapid growth in the region's demand for gas. Many questions about the scale of expansion, the introduction of pipeline gas as a part of the expansion, the role of natural gas in power generation, and the establishment of multilateral cooperation for the pipeline development remain unresolved. Nevertheless, recent announcements by CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) of two contracts signed with the Kazakstan government for the development of oilfields for transport via pipeline to western China are a strong signal that the Northeast Asian region is set to witness the introduction of long-distance pipeline oil. In the longer term, these developments may be eclipsed by the development of pipeline gas. This paper briefly reviews the potential gas and oil supply sources to the Northeast Asian region and recent developments, together with the problems that need to be tackled for early implementation of pipeline gas. After presenting the results of a unique survey on the views of both Japanese and Korean companies on the Northeast Asian natural gas market and the development of long-distance pipelines, the paper discusses the implications of such developments.
Topic:
Development and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, East Asia, and Northeast Asia

5026. The Yen, the Yuan, and the Asian Currency Crisis Changing Fortune between Japan and China

Author:
C.H. Kwan
Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The currency crisis that started in Thailand in the summer of 1997 was followed by repercussions on the currencies of neighboring countries, culminating in a crisis infecting most countries in East Asia. Japan and China, which have developed strong ties with the rest of Asia through trade and investment, have not been exempted from this contagion. This paper looks at the latest currency crisis in Asia from the perspectives of these two regional giants.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Thailand

5027. Japan's China Perceptions and its Policies in the Alliance with the United States

Author:
Hideo Sato
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The People's Republic of China is now a major economic and military actor in the international relations of the Asia Pacific region, and thus we cannot afford to ignore China in reviewing the U.S.-Japan alliance. The Chinese economy has been growing rapidly over the past decade and a half, at an annual rate of about 10 percent, and it is expected to sustain a similar pattern of growth for the foreseeable future. Beijing's defense spending has also been increasing every year at a double-digit level for some time. Consequently, China's domestic and foreign policies will from now on significantly influence the course of international relations in this region, and perhaps elsewhere as well.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, and Asia

5028. China's Post-Deng Military Leadership: New Faces, New Trends

Author:
David Shambaugh
Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
It is a pleasure to be here at Stanford to discuss China's new military leadership, and to share some preliminary findings from my research on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). One key feature of the new leadership in China today, following the passing of patriarch Deng Xiaoping, are the new faces to be found in the military. The PLA High Command today (see Appendix) is almost entirely new. There has been almost total turnover of the top twenty to thirty military officers in China during the last three years. This includes all the commanders, deputy commanders, and political commissars in all seven military region commands; the General Staff, Logistics, and Political Departments; the two major educational institutions of the PLA, the National Defense University and the Academy of Military Sciences; the Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense and its successor body the general Armaments Department, and other bodies. The Central Military Commission itself has seen more than half of its membership turn over in the last few years. Only the top echelon of the Second Artillery, China's ballistic missile forces, has gone relatively untouched. I anticipate much more personnel turnover and organizational reform in the next few years as the PLA proceeds with its policy of downsizing, upgrading, and streamlining its force structure.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5029. China's Accession to and Implementation of International Environmental Accords 1978 - 95

Author:
Michel Oksenberg and Elizabeth Economy
Publication Date:
02-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China's performance in numerous environmental areas—emission of greenhouse gases, use of ozone-depleting substances, reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions, or exploitation of fishing grounds in the western Pacific—will help determine the success of various global and regional environmental protection efforts. And as the World Bank's recent study Clear Water, Blue Skies: China's Environment in the New Century documents, the quality of life within China will be greatly affected by efforts to protect air, water, and soil, all of which are under heavy assault.
Topic:
Environment and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5030. Integration on the Basis of Strength: China's Impact on East Asian Security

Author:
Wu Xinbo
Publication Date:
02-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China is perhaps the most important variable in East Asian security, not only because of its growing power but also because of the great uncertainty over its future. Therefore, to assess China's impact on regional security, one question should be tackled first: what will China look like in the future? There are three different schools of thought concerning China's future: the “implosion" school holds that China, unable to cope with a wide array of social, economic, and political challenges created by its rapid economic growth, will follow in the footsteps of the former Soviet Union and “implode" the “expansion" school argues that as China gradually builds up its material strength, Beijing will wield its weight and seek to establish hegemony in the region; and the “integration" school believes that as China's economy further merges with the world economy, Beijing's internal and external behaviors will slowly but inevitably conform to international norms, and China will become a more responsible and more cooperative member of the world community.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union

5031. Courting Disaster: An Expanded NATO vs. Russia and China

Author:
Bruce Russett and Allan Stam
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
BRUCE RUSSETT and ALLAN C. STAM examine the recent decision to expand NATO to include former Soviet satellites. They argue that the further inclusion of Russia would allow NATO to become a most effective tool in managing security threats in the next century.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

5032. APEC beyond Economics: The Politics of APEC

Author:
Brian L. Job and Frank Langdon
Publication Date:
10-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper deals with the history, formation, and objectives of APEC. It describes the tensions between the Anglo-Saxon and the East Asian APEC members and the clashes of interests between the large and small and developed and less developed nations, which show how precarious the formation of APEC was. Within the short term APEC does not seem destined to become an overarching regional, political, security, and economic institution. Indeed, certain forces within the region, such as increased arms acquisitions in some states, friction arising over trade disputes, protectionism, and investment flows, and tension between China and Taiwan, could hinder the objectives of the organization. It remains possible that the very process of finding common ground through APEC may contribute more to fostering community and to ensuring security in the region than the proposals actually agreed upon by all member nations.
Topic:
Economics and International Organization
Political Geography:
China and Europe

5033. Responses to Prediction and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Rick Hermann
Publication Date:
02-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
My first cut at the hierarchy of driving forces ranks Israeli-Palestinian bilateral factors as the most important and regional and global factors as secondary. Competition between global powers (USA, Russia, China) is currently not intense. None of them see the bilateral Israeli-Palestinian conflict as instrumentally critical to their broader strategic competition with each other. None see their security as centrally tied to this conflict, and, consequently, while interested not even the United States will commit enough resources at this point to overturn the forces driving the bilateral bargain. Competition among regional states is substantial, but the conflicts that do not involve Israel do not involve states powerful enough to project their competition into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. For example, Iranian v. Turkish, or Iranian v. Saudi Arabian, or Syrian v. Iraq, or India v. Pakistan might tangentially connect to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, mostly in the realm of rhetoric and symbol manipulation. None of these states, however, are strong enough to see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as an instrumental regional manifestation of their broader strategic conflict. The primary determinants of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation process in the short-term are the conflicting ambitions and calculations made by Israelis and Palestinians. Forces at the global and regional level will affect these bargaining calculations, (affecting both relative coercive leverage and positive reassurance) but they will not impose additional sources of conflict. My examination of global and regional forces, will follow my construction of the primary bilateral dynamic. I do not think global and regional factors will upset the short-term prediction I will make for the bilateral Palestinian-Israeli relationship. They may play a big role in shaping longer-term predictions.
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, and Syria

5034. China's Foreign Economic Relations

Author:
K.C. Fung and Lawrence Lau
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China's presence in the world economy continues to grow and deepen. The foreign sector of China plays an important and multifaceted role in the country's economic development. At the same time, China's expanded role in the world economy is beneficial to all its trading partners. Regions that trade with China benefit from cheaper and more varied imported consumer goods, raw materials, and intermediate products. China also provides a large and growing export market. While the entry of any major trading nation in the global trading system can create a process of adjustment, the outcome is fundamentally a win-win situation. It is a simple but powerful lesson from economics that freer international trade and investments benefit all parties concerned.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5035. Building China's Information Technology Industry

Author:
Stephen S. Cohen and Michael Borrus
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
At the October 29, 1997, summit meeting between President Jiang Zemin of the People's Republic of China ("China") and President Bill Clinton of the United States, President Jiang announced his government's commitment to join the Information Technology Agreement ("ITA") and thereby eliminate China's tariffs on semiconductors, computers and other information technology products. President Jiang also agreed that, in the context of the negotiations concerning China's accession to the World Trade Organization ("WTO"), China would make further substantial tariff reductions.
Topic:
Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

5036. Partners for the China Circle?: The Asian Production Networks of Japanese Electronics Firms

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
The "China fever" that has raged through the Japanese industry over the last few years, has drastically changed the locational patterns of Japanese investment within East Asia. The share of China in the investment of Japanese electronics firms abroad has increased by leaps and bounds: from the measly 0.6% of 1990 ( the year after the Tianmen massacre), it has now reached almost 7%, catching up fast with the 7.7% share of ASEAN.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

5037. Energy and Security in Northeast Asia

Author:
Michael May, Michael Stankiewicz, Edward Fei, Celeste Johnson, and Tatsujiro Suzuki
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Since 1993, the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), a state-wide policy research institute of the University of California, has coordinated a series of high-level, track two consultations among security experts and officials from China, Japan, North and South Korea, Russia, and the United States. Known as the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), this forum has sought to reduce mistrust within the North Pacific region, and to avert conflicts among the major powers in Asia through ongoing, multilateral dialogues about current security issues. The informality of the process allows the participants to air their concerns and brainstorm about new approaches to building cooperation and reducing the risk of conflict in Northeast Asia.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Asia, Korea, and Northeast Asia

5038. The Major Powers in Northeast Asian Security

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa
Publication Date:
08-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The political, economic, and security environment of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century will be shaped in very large part by the interrelationships among the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. To the extent these four nations can cooperate, a generally benign environment can develop in which the challenges sure to develop in the region can be managed. Conversely, tensions and conflict among the four will have a profoundly destabilizing impact regionally, if not globally.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
Political Geography:
Russia, Japan, China, Asia, and Northeast Asia

5039. Khomeini's Incorporation of Iranian Military

Author:
Mark Roberts
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In her book, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (1979), revolutionary authority and sociologist Theda Skocpol states: The repressive state organizations of the prerevolutionary regime have to be weakened before mass revolutionary action can succeed, or even emerge. Indeed, historically, mass rebellious action has not been able, in itself, to overcome state repression. Instead, military pressures from abroad … have been necessary to undermine repression.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Law, Nuclear Weapons, and Religion
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Middle East, and France

5040. The China-United States Bilateral Trade Balance: How Big Is It Really?

Author:
K.C. Fung and Lawrence Lau
Publication Date:
04-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
There are huge discrepancies between the official Chinese and U.S. estimates of the bilateral trade balance. The discrepancies are caused by different treatments accorded to re-exports through Hong Kong, re-export markups, and trade in services. Deficit-shifting between China, on the one hand, and Hong Kong and Taiwan, on the other, due to direct investment in China from Taiwan and Hong Kong, is partly responsible for the growth in the China United States bilateral trade deficit.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and Hong Kong

5041. A United States Policy for the Changing Realities of East Asia

Author:
Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, and Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

5042. Maritime Jurisdiction in the Three China Seas

Author:
Ju Guoxing
Publication Date:
10-1995
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
The three China Seas (the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea) are all enclosed or semi-enclosed and studded with so many offshore and mid-ocean islands that nowhere does the distance from one headland or island to another approach 400 nautical miles. With the extension of national jurisdiction over maritime resources, no seabed in the area is left unclaimed.
Topic:
International Law and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Southeast Asia