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202. China’s Long Game in Iran’s Short War
- Author:
- Pierre Pahlavi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
- Abstract:
- Following the twelve-day Iran-Israel war in June 2025, China has quietly accelerated its strategic partnership with a weakened Islamic Republic through renewed infrastructure commitments, expanded technological cooperation, and deepened diplomatic alignment. This calculated entrenchment represents Beijing’s broader ambition to reshape the post-American architecture of influence across Eurasia, potentially shifting the future of Middle Eastern geopolitics away from Western capitals toward Beijing.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- China, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
203. Serbia Between Brussels, Beijing, and Moscow: A Foreign Policy of Diversification
- Author:
- Nina Markovic Khaze
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
- Abstract:
- As global rivalries intensify, Serbia stands at a complex geopolitical juncture. The country is simultaneously pursuing accession negotiations with the European Union (EU), deepening strategic ties with China, and maintaining longstanding relations with Russia.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Diversification, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Serbia
204. After Palestine, Should Australia Recognise Somaliland
- Author:
- Abdi Daud
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
- Abstract:
- Australia should give serious consideration to recognise Somaliland, particularly following its recognition of Palestine in September 2025. In doing so, it would reinforce its strategic position in the Indo-Pacific, align with US interests, counter Chinese expansion, and address practical challenges facing Australian Somaliland communities.
- Topic:
- Strategic Interests, Regional Politics, and Recognition
- Political Geography:
- China, Palestine, Australia, Somaliland, and Indo-Pacific
205. Beyond the Pit: Can Australia Compete in Critical Mineral Processing?
- Author:
- Sangita Gayatri Kannan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
- Abstract:
- The energy transition depends on critical minerals, but supply chains are vulnerable due to processing concentration in China. Australia can play a key role if it moves beyond raw material exports.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Exports, Mining, Supply Chains, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- China, Australia, and Oceania
206. The Critical Minerals Trap: Why Australia Must Proceed with Caution
- Author:
- Christopher Khatouki
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA)
- Abstract:
- Australia’s critical minerals push is being sold as a strategic win, but it risks doubling down on a “dumb” commodity economy while locking Canberra deeper into U.S.-led geoeconomic rivalry. With China’s dominance already entrenched and processing environmentally costly and uncompetitive, the real danger is mistaking subsidised extraction for strategy – and sacrificing long-term industrial sovereignty for short-term alliance politics.
- Topic:
- Economy, Mining, Geoeconomics, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- China, Australia, and Oceania
207. Foreign Policy of China: Pursuing the Resources in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Naqibullah Mashwani
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- China, a major power playing the peripheral diplomacy to bring developing countries to a table of dialogues, negotiations and international conferences to express their interests and form new relations.Thus, it has always been friendly and supportive to Afghanistan; providing humanitarian aid, investing in infrastructure, and extracting natural resources. However, China spent more on the minerals of Afghanistan during the new acting government than in the previous government. China was not deeply involved economically with the former government though they had signed some significant agreements.This was also one of the reasons China did not resist and took part in the 20 years long war in Afghanistan, instead, China supported, hosted and mediated Taliban. After the fall of Kabul and the return of the Taliban, China turned its policy and filled the vacuum, gave them de facto recognition and backed them in terms of security and economic development. This paper deeply explores the foreign policy of China towards Afghanistan and how they invested in extracting natural resources, infrastructure and tightened major economic agreements with the Taliban and contributed to the internal security and stability.China, a pioneer in oil extraction in Afghanistan has signed significant agreements and contracts with the interim government of Afghanistan for mineral extraction and refinery development.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Natural Resources, and Taliban
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, China, and Asia
208. Constructive Role of State-Owned Broadcaster in Elevating Economic Development and Peacebuilding: The Case Study of China Radio International and CGTN-Radio (2024-2025)
- Author:
- Muhammad Ahmad Sheikh and Muhammad Yousaf
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- Constructive or solutions-focused news is often promoted as a way to lessen the conflicts based news and encourage audience to participate in national development, rather than reporting negative, conflict-driven news. (Djerf-Pierre, M., & Ekström, M. (2025) The study analyzes CRI/ CGTN -Radio news, podcast and talk shows highlighting positive economic frames while suggesting a need for stronger constructive journalism practices in prevailing world economic and peace situation. The thematic analysis of the main themes development, peace, and stability in the programmes of CR/CGTN -Radio (state-owned broadcaster) of China show mostly positive coverage. The programming content reveals that the news coverage of china radio international and CGTN-Radio emphasizes the economic development and peace initiatives of Pakistan and China. This study employs qualitative content analysis. Furthermore, the research highlights the necessity for constructive journalism globally, with a particular focus on China. The results indicate that state media prioritizes solutions to issues, social and economic stability, sustainability, and prosperous development.
- Topic:
- Journalism, Economic Development, Peacebuilding, and Radio
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Asia
209. Artificial Intelligence and the New World Order: A Comparative Study of US-China Technological Rivalry
- Author:
- Adnan Nawaz, Syed Raghab Ali, Naudir Bakht, and Zosha Noor
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- The power rivalry between the United States and China in the twenty-first century has been significantly influenced by advancements in artificial intelligence. This technology not only transforms economic markets but also enhances military capabilities and shapes political governance. This research explores the historical progression of AI development across these countries by showing how their unique political frameworks, alongside economic tables and strategic visions, created separate paths toward AI domination. During the Cold War years, the United States paced ahead through governmental investments combined with university innovation and its flexible private sector activity yet China obtained its growth through state-mandated direction and national planning alongside substantial financial allocations in line with initiatives like the Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan. China's Belt and Road initiative employs AI surveillance tools to construct new infrastructure as the United States depends on autonomous private enterprise operations without state control and freedom to conduct independent research. The competition between China and the United States targets multiple areas including semiconductor manufacturing technology together with quantum computing research and ethical standards creation which exposes weaknesses for each side. This study qualitatively evaluates the competition between US and China and analytically elucidates the key challenges which are posing threats to the global power hierarchy.AI operates as an accelerating force that shapes future power dynamics while determining digital sovereignty principles and deepening global ideological conflicts.
- Topic:
- Governance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Artificial Intelligence, Rivalry, and Digital Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
210. Intersectionality and Atrocity Crimes: Reflecting on the Experiences of Youth in Atrocity Situations
- Author:
- Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- Mass atrocity crimes are often perpetrated against populations based on shared identity characteristics, such as ethnicity, religion, race or language. In many contexts, individuals who belong to more than one marginalized group face heightened and compounded risks. These risks are shaped by the unique social and political dynamics of a given context, where assumptions about power and identity intersect. There is growing recognition that failing to address complex and overlapping identities can obscure or deny the human rights inherent to all. Effective atrocity prevention must reflect the diversity of populations around the world and recognize how intersecting identities contribute to vulnerability and risk. Applying an intersectional lens is essential to identifying early warning signs, understanding the drivers of identity-based violence and ensuring no one is overlooked. This new policy brief focuses on the specific risks faced by youth in atrocity situations, particularly when multiple forms of identity compound their vulnerability. This brief underscores the urgent need to meaningfully center youth perspectives, in all their diversity, within national, regional and multilateral atrocity prevention strategies and decision-making processes. The brief draws on case studies from the Gaza Strip, El Salvador, Sudan and the Uyghur community in and beyond China. These examples are informed by testimony and insights shared by youth activists during an event hosted by the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect and the European Union on 18 April 2024. Participants included young advocates for marginalized ethnic groups, people with disabilities and LGBTQIA+ youth, who shared their lived experiences and strategies for more inclusive, effective prevention
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Youth, Atrocities, Uyghurs, Identity, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- China, Sudan, Gaza, and El Salvador
211. Strategic Vulnerabilities in Space: U.S.-China Militarization and the Risks to Global Strategic Stability
- Author:
- Ameema Khalid
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Advanced Military Studies
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- This study investigates the militarization of space by the United States and China using the theoretical frameworks of technological determinism and the security dilemma. Data analysis of policy documents, military doctrines, and strategic literature reveals how technological advancements, mutual distrust, and dual-use technologies have transformed space into a contested domain. Findings indicate that the lack of international regulations and transparency exacerbates the risks of miscalculation and conflict. The study suggests actionable measures, including binding treaties, enhanced transparency, and conflict resolution mechanisms to promote peaceful space exploration. This research contributes to the broader discourse on space security by offering insights into managing militarization challenges in a rapidly advancing technological era.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Space, Strategic Stability, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
212. How Does China View the Western Balkans, Kosovo, and the Normalization Dialogue?
- Author:
- Ramadan Ilazi, Delmin Saljunovic, and Matt Delvoye
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- A mix of ideological and pragmatic approaches shapes China’s engagement in the Western Balkans. While the region of the Western Balkans is not central to Beijing’s foreign policy, it offers a critical discursive and geopolitical space through which China challenges the West and tests elements of its broader international relations strategy. In other words, China aspires to rival the West in the Balkans, primarily through economic competition in an effort to preach its political values over international order (or its view of the world) as a model that is, according to the Chinese, better than the model of regional and European integration that the Western Balkans pursues jointly with the West. In this context, Kosovo stands out as an important case. For China, Kosovo is not simply a state that is contested by Serbia but means through which it articulates its opposition to the West and liberal democracy while consolidating its alliance with Serbia. This paper argues that China’s stance on Kosovo is not driven by legal principle but by political utility. Kosovo is treated as a “Western project” to be delegitimized rather than a dispute to be resolved. The paper is structured into five sections. It begins with sections one and two by outlining a conceptual discussion of Chinese foreign policy, aiming to provide a foundation for understanding the underlying principles that drive Chinese foreign policy philosophy. Section three discusses China’s presence in the Western Balkans and discusses the path dependency approach of Chinese foreign policy. Section four presents a discourse analysis of Chinese foreign policy to examine the specific language China employs when discussing Kosovo, Serbia, and the normalization process, based on an analysis of 82 texts totaling over 30,000 words, that include official statements, speeches and interviews from officials largely from 2008 to 2024. Section five adopts a more critical, attitudinal perspective, situating China’s approach within its broader interests in the Western Balkans. Drawing from official Chinese statements, UN Security Council speeches, MFA briefings, and diplomatic visits, the paper traces China’s positioning toward Kosovo, a subject which, to date, has been largely unexplored in Kosovo. At its core, the paper also identifies a consistent pattern of rhetorical distance paired with alignment with Serbia. The main findings of the paper are threefold. First, China’s discourse on Kosovo is grounded in a legalistic framework in appearance or rhetoric and opportunistic in practice. However, even in its legalistic appearance China always ignores ICJ’s opinion on Kosovo’s independence in 2010. Second, China’s foreign policy toward the Western Balkans is not neutral, but explicitly aligned with Serbia, both rhetorically and technically, and this makes Serbia a key platform for Chinese influence in our region, as other studies have shown.1 Third, despite its support for the EU-led normalization dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia in principle, China undermines the process by refusing to endorse its objectives, distancing itself from the notion of “normalization,” and promoting a status quo that favors ambiguity over resolution. For China, Kosovo is not an issue that needs to be resolved, but a Western design liberal-democratic project that needs to fail. In other words, China’s position on Kosovo has largely remained the same since 1998, and viewing Kosovo’s “solution” in a way that best fits interests of Sebia, which, as this paper seeks to show, is largely because of Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Normalization, International Order, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Kosovo, and Western Balkans
213. How Does the Serbian Security Doctrine View Kosovo, the West, Russia, and China?
- Author:
- Ramadan Ilazi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes Serbia’s security doctrine as outlined in its National Security Strategy (2021), focusing on how it perceives Kosovo, the West (EU, NATO, and the US), Russia, and China. Serbia’s security posture is shaped by a balancing act— engaging both the West (EU, U.S., NATO) security structures while at the same time maintaining strong strategic relations with Russia and China. Despite its proclaimed military neutrality, Serbia’s security doctrine reflects an aggressive posture toward Kosovo, a skeptical stance on the West, and a deepening strategic alignment with Moscow and Beijing. The strategy frames Kosovo’s independence as a direct challenge to Serbia’s territorial integrity and national security. Serbia’s security apparatus is engaged in diplomatic efforts, intelligence operations, and hybrid warfare to undermine Kosovo’s sovereignty and prevent its international recognition. While Serbia rejects NATO membership, it cooperates with NATO through the Partnership for Peace (PfP). Serbia maintains strong defense and energy ties with Russia, benefiting from diplomatic backing on Kosovo while avoiding Western sanctions on Moscow. China is emerging as a key economic and security partner, providing investments in infrastructure, digital surveillance, and military technology. Serbia has significantly expanded its military capabilities, acquiring weapons from Russia and China while participating in joint drills with both NATO and CSTO. The adoption of the Total Defense concept—mobilizing the entire population and resources for national security—raises concerns about escalation and arms races in the Western Balkans. Serbia’s strategy frames Western influence as a security challenge, particularly regarding media, civil society, and foreign-backed democratization efforts. The West is seen as a hybrid threat, accused of interfering in Serbia’s internal affairs, while Russia and China are portrayed as strategic allies. Serbia’s approach contributes to a geopolitical divide in the Western Balkans, where Kosovo is aligned fully with the West, while Serbia hedges between the EU and authoritarian states, as well as grappling internally with authoritarian practices. Serbia’s influence campaigns portray Kosovo as a source of instability, using disinformation, cyber-attacks, and lobbying efforts to stall Kosovo’s state-consolidation process as well as EU and NATO aspirations. Kosovo’s reactive foreign policy and languishing partnership with the U.S., and the EU create an enabling environment for Serbia’s efforts against Kosovo’s statehood.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Kosovo
214. Signals in the Swarm: The Data Behind China’s Maritime Gray Zone Campaign Near Taiwan
- Author:
- Jose M. Macias and Benjamin Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Under the guise of fishing, Beijing is using dual-use and unmarked vessels to surveil, harass, and assert presence around Taiwan. Analysis of AIS tracks, People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) drill zones, and Global Fishing Watch data narrowed a subset of 12,000 vessels traveling near Taiwan on days likely to coincide with maritime drills down to 315 vessels that were both flying the Chinese flag and identified as fishing vessels. The classification framework developed at the Futures Lab flagged 128 likely gray zone actors. Institutionalizing this framework inside a Coalition Joint-Maritime Anomaly Cell (CJ-MAC) would automate anomaly detection and scale coverage across the Taiwan Strait and Indo-Pacific. CJ-MAC should be leveraged to fuse intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), publish suspect-vessel alerts, and cue real-time monitoring and patrols. Many suspect vessels manipulate identity and visibility—going dark, switching names, or masking movements—behavior consistent with covert tasking. Publishing and punishing a rolling blacklist of repeat offenders through sanctions on owners, insurers, and operators would raise costs and shrink deniability. To support this effort, U.S. and allied intelligence agencies should map corporate ownership networks tied to suspicious vessels—identifying shell companies and economic exposure in allied jurisdictions. Gray zone tactics exploit ambiguity, with mixed fleets and massive automatic identification system (AIS) volumes making it hard to separate commerce from covert operations. A Taiwan Transparency Dashboard and an annual Gray Zone Maritime Threat Estimate would give policymakers and partners a clear, shared operating picture.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Maritime, and Gray Zone
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
215. CRINK Security Ties: Growing Cooperation, Anchored by China and Russia
- Author:
- Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Leon Li, Hugh Grant-Chapman, Truly Tinsley, and Feifei Hung
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Military and security cooperation among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK) accelerated significantly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This includes a surge in transfers of arms and dual-use goods, a new mutual defense pact, and more frequent and diversified joint military exercises. Observable security cooperation has taken place bilaterally or trilaterally, with no discernable official cooperation taking place quadrilaterally. However, there have been instances of Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean players working together in diffuse ways to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. Overall, the China-Russia security partnership is the most robust, but North Korea and Iran have quickly strengthened security cooperation as well, primarily with Russia. Despite strengthened ties among CRINK countries, the four countries are not always on the same page. To date, limited overt military support for Iran following attacks by Israel and the United States showcased how various factors—transactional calculations, power asymmetries, geographic distance, simultaneity of conflict and fatigue, U.S. military involvement, different interests, and elements of distrust—affect the willingness of CRINK countries to directly support one another via military means. Overall, the two larger powers—China and Russia—anchor CRINK cooperation. They have much more to offer to incentivize others to support them, and they are the most closely aligned bilateral actors. China, Russia, and North Korea are the trio most likely to support one another in times of need.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, Ukraine, and Asia
216. Beyond Rare Earths: China’s Growing Threat to Gallium Supply Chains
- Author:
- Aidan Powers-Riggs, Brian Hart, Matthew Funaiole, Scott Thomsett, Simon Zieleniewski, and Tim Rose
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- China is increasingly weaponizing its chokehold over critical minerals amid intensifying economic and technological competition with the United States. The critical mineral gallium, which is crucial to defense industry supply chains and new energy technologies, has been at the front line of China’s strategy. To date, China’s chokehold on rare earth metals has attracted more attention than its restrictions on gallium, and some have downplayed the potential consequences of disruptions to gallium supply chains. Yet CSIS analysis reveals the extent to which China can wield gallium to impose significant economic harm on the United States and its allies and partners. This CSIS Brief unpacks the scope of the problem and offers policy recommendations on how to bolster U.S. and allied economic security and deny China a key tool of economic warfare.
- Topic:
- Exports, Supply Chains, Rare earth elements (REEs), Geoeconomics, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
217. CRINK Economic Ties: Uneven Patterns of Collaboration
- Author:
- Maria Snegovaya, Nicholas Fenton, and Tina Dolbaia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK) face obstacles to economic collaboration such as geographic distance, sanctions, mutual mistrust, and self-sufficiency goals. Reliable data on CRINK’s economic and trade ties is limited due to lack of reported data from Iran and North Korea and the rise of informal and shadow trade since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Existing data reveals uneven patterns, although expanding bilateral agreements, strengthening energy ties, and increasing trade in dual-use technologies point to growing economic cooperation among the CRINK countries. CRINK also seeks to integrate their financial and payment systems to bypass Western sanctions by prioritizing national currencies over the U.S. dollar. The post-2022 China-Russia relationship drives most of the momentum, while Iran and North Korea exhibit expanding but considerably weaker integration with the rest of the group. China is nevertheless a cautious actor that hedges its bets in energy trade with Russia and Iran, avoids flagrant sanctions violations, and faces constraints from its own economic slowdown.
- Topic:
- Economics, Trade, Treaties and Agreements, Economic Security, Geopolitics, International Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Middle East, Russia, and Europe
218. A World Adrift: Reordering and New Pathways of Cooperation
- Author:
- Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Global governance is under severe strain as geopolitical conflicts, climate risks, pandemics, technological disruptions, and widening inequalities unfold amid the United States’ retrenchment from the international arena and China’s assertiveness in global affairs. A more pluralistic global landscape is emerging where new and old institutions coexist. Regional and middle powers, including groupings like ASEAN, can shape a more stable and cooperative order through inclusive, rules-based frameworks that strengthen resilience and revitalise multilateralism.
- Topic:
- Governance, Geopolitics, Institutions, ASEAN, Regional Power, and Middle Power
- Political Geography:
- China and United States of America
219. No breakthrough at the European-African summit in Luanda
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- On 24-25 November, the seventh European Union-African Union summit was held in Luanda, the capital of Angola. It was dominated by issues related to security, competition with China via the EU's Global Gateway programme, and access to critical minerals. The meeting also served to demonstrate a mutual commitment to multilateralism.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, European Union, Multilateralism, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, Europe, and Angola
220. EU Focuses on Returns and the Externalisation of Migration Management
- Author:
- Jolanta Szymańska
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- In recent months, the EU has been focusing on increasing the scale of returns of migrants to their countries of origin, as well as intensifying the search for partners in migration management outside the main transit routes to Europe. This strategy is gaining increasing support among the EU Member States. However, the main limitation for its implementation will be the instability of partner countries and the growing influence of Russia and China in the Global South.
- Topic:
- European Union, Migration Policy, and Externalization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and Global South
221. China Facing Domestic Economic Challenges and Trade War with the U.S.
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- A session of China’s parliament in March confirmed that the main source of the country’s economic growth in 2025 is to be state-supported industrial production, including the development of the high-tech sector, along with increasing domestic consumption and exports. The shape of China’s economic policy will be influenced by, among other things, the course of the trade conflict with the United States. For the EU, China’s economic plans imply the need to further protect the single market and increase competitiveness.
- Topic:
- Economy, Economic Growth, Trade Wars, and Industry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
222. Report: Eight Years On, China’s Repression of the Uyghurs Remains Dire
- Author:
- Rian Thum
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- The Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide released a report in January 2025, “Eight Years On, China’s Repression of the Uyghurs Remains Dire: How China’s Policies in the Uyghur Region Have and Have Not Changed.” The report is authored by Rian Thum, Senior Lecturer in East Asian History, at the University of Manchester. The report seeks to improve our collective understanding of China’s ongoing repressive policies in the predominantly Uyghur province of Xinjiang in western China. The Simon-Skjodt Center released a report in 2021 detailing multiple crimes against humanity that the Chinese government had committed against the Uyghur population, a Turkic Muslim minority group, and expressing grave concern that the Chinese government may be committing genocide. Since then, detailed reporting on state policies has decreased as Chinese authorities increasingly restricted access to information. Using recent evidence from Chinese state documents, satellite imagery, and survivor testimony, as well as a synthesis of recent academic publications, the report aims to fill a knowledge gap about the current state of mass atrocities targeting the Uyghur community and other Turkic minorities in the Uyghur region. The report finds that, given the available information, all of the policies that led to accusations of mass atrocities in the Uyghur region continue, and some are expanding. These findings should prompt deeper research into the nature of mass atrocities facing the Uyghur population and spark urgent, effective responses. In particular, the report recommends further research into emerging repressive strategies, including the intense network of electronic and human surveillance, curbs on religious practice, and the destruction of cultural heritage.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Minorities, Repression, and Uyghurs
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Xinjiang
223. China's Strategic Finance Drive: Considerations for Korea’s Next Steps
- Author:
- Jiyoung Moon
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- At the Central Financial Work Conference in 2023, China emphasized the importance of developing “Financial development with Chinese characteristics” for the nation's economic structural transition, and announced “building a financial powerhouse” as a key national strategic objective. The strategy, termed “Financial development with Chinese characteristics,” emphasizes strengthened Communist Party leadership over the financial industry, aiming to ensure stability, mitigate risks, and support high-quality economic growth. The Chinese government has undertaken significant institutional reforms around three main pillars: (1) building a comprehensive control framework to reinforce financial stability through enhanced Party supervision, (2) enhancing mechanisms to support the real economy by channeling financial resources into strategic industries such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, and (3) advancing market-oriented financial reforms, particularly interest rate liberalization, to improve capital allocation and address chronic credit constraints, especially for small and medium private enterprises. However, challenges persist, including excessive investment in real estate, local government debt, and underdeveloped capital markets. China is addressing these through supply-side reforms of capital markets, improved regulatory oversight, and efforts to foster world-class investment banks. For Korea, these developments imply both opportunities and risks. As China increases financial support for strategic industries and consolidates regulatory control, Korean companies and financial institutions must adapt their strategies to navigate evolving market entry barriers and geopolitical uncertainties. The report recommends that Korea formulate targeted economic cooperation strategies, closely monitor regulatory changes, assess financial risks, and strengthen bilateral policy coordination to ensure resilient and transparent business partnerships with China.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Reform, Finance, Business, Economic Development, and Financial Stability
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and South Korea
224. China's Digital Trade Development Strategy and Its Implications
- Author:
- Seung Shin Lee
- Publication Date:
- 11-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the Chinese government has announced a series of digital trade development plans and applied to join high standard trade agreements, aiming to gradually expand external openness in line with global digital trade cooperation standards. Since 2023, major government documents have repeatedly emphasized the development of digital trade and e-commerce. This trend reflects not only the growing weight of the digital economy in China’s overall economy, but also the government’s attempt to offset sluggish domestic growth momentum by accelerating digital transformation. According to data, digital sectors have grown by approximately 3.3 times since 2014, accounting for 42.8% of China’s GDP. This indicates that the digital economy has become one of the key growth drivers of the Chinese economy. With the acceleration of digital transformation and the rapid development of digital trade, frequent trade barriers of various kinds are emerging. This has increased the need for active discussions on digital economy governance and trade rules to effectively manage such barriers. As China’s influence in global digital trade continues to expand, understanding and responding to its strategies has become a pressing task for Korea and other trading partners.
- Topic:
- Development, Economy, E-Commerce, and Digital Trade
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
225. AI Standard Choices Under Geopolitical Competition
- Author:
- Sangjun Yea
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
- Abstract:
- This study examines how global competition over artificial intelligence (AI) standards is unfolding amid growing geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. It develops a theoretical model to analyze how a third country decides whether to align its domestic AI standard with the U.S. or Chinese framework once both standards exist. The analysis highlights that the choice depends primarily on global and local network effects, market competition, and the role of domestic platforms intermediating AI services. The findings suggest that the technological superiority of foundation AI models and the expanding global user base are key determinants of international standards adoption, implying that AI standardization has become a strategic domain of global economic and political competition.
- Topic:
- Economics, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
226. Between Sun Tzu, Clausewitz, and Stalin: A Synthetic character of Mao Zedong’s Military Thought
- Author:
- Damian Winczewski
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- In modern literature on military thought of Mao Zedong, authors puts a lot of emphasis on its relationship with classical Chinese thought. Many focus on the influence of Sun Tzu, or Clausewitz. In this article I would like to focus mainly on influences of the Marxist thought, through which as I think the Chinese strategist interpreted the art of war. I will compare Mao Zedong's views on the nature and ethics of war with the statements of Marxist classics on these issues. In this way, his theses, allegedly derived from classical Chinese philosophy, gain a wider context in which the influence of Stalinist vulgarization of Marxism on Mao's philosophical reflections in relation to war is quite visible.
- Topic:
- War, Military Affairs, Philosophy, Mao Zedong, Carl von Clausewitz, Sun Tzu, Josef Stalin, and Ethics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
227. A Global Enemy: Muslims and 21st Century Racism with Professor Saher Selod (9/11/2025)
- Author:
- Saher Selod
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- Based on her critically acclaimed book, Dr. Saher Selod examines how Muslims experience racialization on a global scale with a focus on the United States, China, India, and the United Kingdom. Counterterrorism policies, hyper-surveillance and racialized policing are grounded in transnational negative representations of Islam which in turn legitimize and institutionalize state-sponsored racism against Muslim minorities.
- Topic:
- Racism, Muslims, Racialization, and Policing
- Political Geography:
- China, United Kingdom, Europe, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America
228. Gods and Stars: The Use of Mythological Roots in the Chinese Space Program. Analysis
- Author:
- Krzysztof Jan Karwowski
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- This study examines the Chinese space program from a cultural perspective. The program, in previous two decades, has achieved a series of achievements, including the successful deployment of rocket launching systems, manned space missions, satellites, and space probes exploring the Moon, asteroids, and Mars. A key focus of this research is the naming convention and promotional strategies associated with the Chinese space activities. These names and symbols are rooted in a cultural tradition completely different and contrasting with the Greco-Roman heritage commonly adopted by the traditional space powers i.e. USA, USSR/Russia, and Europe. The paper involved cataloguing, classifying, and analysing the source materials— specifically, counting and explaining the mission codes developed by China. Missions were categorised into major thematic origins: (A) Mythology, cosmology, culture, (B) Political/communist-related content, (C) Astronomy, astronomers, space-inspired concepts, discoverers and science, (D) Technological jargon and (E) Other. The findings indicate that despite its history as a communist state with periods of distancing from ancient traditions, China’s space program has become a prominent platform for promoting Chinese symbolism. Cultural symbols, along with Chinese scientific and astronomical concepts, overwhelmingly dominate the other thematic categories.
- Topic:
- Culture, Soft Power, Smart Power, Space Program, and Nomenclature
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
229. Silk Road legacy and China’s cultural diplomacy in Sino-Uzbek relations
- Author:
- Elżbieta Proń
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
- Institution:
- Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
- Abstract:
- In the mid-2020s, Uzbekistan became China’s primary strategic partner in Central Asia (CA). Sino-Uzbek ties’ political and economic nature has been well-researched, but there is a research gap regarding China’s cultural diplomacy towards Uzbekistan. This paper fills this gap by providing a scrutiny of China’s instrumentalization of the Silk Road legacy, the use of archaeological cooperation as a diplomatic tool, and China’s educational diplomacy towards Uzbekistan. It argues that while China’s cultural diplomacy towards Uzbekistan has been built upon China’s diplomacy in Central Asia, Beijing designed it carefully, recognizing the distinctiveness of Uzbekistan’s political and cultural traditions. China’s cultural diplomacy towards Uzbekistan has been mainly fostered via top-down initiatives from Beijing, Xi’an academic and cultural institutions, and professional and academic exchange rather than people-to-people bottom-up interactions. As such, this paper contributes to research on the legacy of the Silk Road in Chinese foreign policy, Sino-Uzbek relations, and China-Central Asian studies.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Cultural Diplomacy, and Silk Road
- Political Geography:
- China, Central Asia, Asia, and Uzbekistan
230. Can Social Constructivism in IR Shape Foreign Policies?
- Author:
- Anmol Mukhia
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- From time to time, North Korea and China’s relations have been analyzed by different scholars as a byproduct or satellite state of China. We often debate power, war, and allies from a realist understanding. However, the constructivist approach has not been addressed much. The significant developments during the Korean War were symbolic, shared ideas, and the creation of identities, which were crucial to understanding the state’s choice and preference in foreign policy decision-making. In this article, I draw on the work of the constructivist approach to argue the North Korean and China relations during the Korean War. In this way, the constructivist explanation can be suitable for explaining the dynamics of North Korean and China ties because they look at the history and social dynamics within states for its outcome.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Social Constructivism
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
231. Sino-Russian Cooperation and its Impacts on Central Asia
- Author:
- Giorgio Romano Schutte and Diego Noveli Valadares
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes Sino-Russian cooperation in Central Asia, examining China’s growing economic presence and the reconfiguration of Russian influence in the region. Since 2014, Western sanctions and geopolitical tensions have led Moscow and Beijing to deepen their partnership. While China expands investments through the Belt and Road Initiative, Russia maintains its central role in regional security and financial influence. The study argues that despite China’s rise, Central Asia has become a space for strategic accommodation, where both powers avoid direct conflicts and consolidate their global presence.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Investment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Central Asia, and Asia
232. Focus on Eurasia: The Axis of Upheaval
- Author:
- Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Carol Saivetz, and David Wood
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Focus on Eurasia: The Axis of Upheaval: How Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea Seek to Change the World: Tuesday, October 28 Speaker: Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). She works on national security challenges facing the United States and Europe, focusing on Russia, authoritarianism and threats to democracy, and the state of the transatlantic alliance. Discussants: Carol Saivetz is a senior fellow in the MIT Security Studies Program at the Center for International Studies (CIS). She is the author and contributing co-editor of books and articles on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues. Elizabeth Wood is Ford International Professor of History at MIT. She is the author most recently of Roots of Russia’s War in Ukraine as well as articles on Vladimir Putin, the political cult of WWII, right-wing populism in Russia and Turkey, and U.S.-Russian Partnerships in Science. She is director of the MIT-Ukraine Program at CIS.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, Eurasia, Middle East, Asia, and North Korea
233. Navigating US-China technology competition among Middle Powers: study of Chilean response
- Author:
- Andrés Orlando Bórquez Basáez and Dorotea López Giral
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Amid intensifying US–China rivalry over digital governance, middle powers like Chile face growing pressure to navigate an increasingly fragmented global order. This article examines Chile’s response through expert interviews and analysis of three key technology cases involving Chinese firms. The findings show that Chile has adopted a Hedging Strategy, limiting involvement in sensitive tech projects aligned with US security concerns, while continuing to attract Chinese investment in areas like electromobility and renewables. The study underscores the combined impact of geopolitical tensions, domestic bureaucratic constraints, and the challenges of engaging with China, whose growing presence still requires a process of mutual adaptation. These dynamics raise questions about Chile’s priorities and the limits of its autonomy in this complex context.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, and Middle Powers
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Latin America, North America, Chile, and United States of America
234. Impact of China–Latin America Transportation Infrastructure Cooperation on Latin American Economies: A Project Data Study (2009–2023)
- Author:
- Cao Ting
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the 21st century, China and Latin American countries have actively collaborated across various fields, including politics, economy, culture, and technology. Transportation infrastructure cooperation has emerged as a key aspect of this relationship. This article analyzes the characteristics of China–Latin America transportation infrastructure cooperation using project data from 2009 to 2023 and evaluates its effectiveness and future prospects. The findings indicate that this cooperation has yielded significant achievements; however, challenges remain in areas such as communication with indigenous communities and environmental protection. Moving forward, it is essential for China and Latin America to deepen their collaboration, prioritize quality projects through strategic planning, and promote the green development and digitalization of transportation infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Transportation, Economic Integration, and Regional Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Latin America
235. Divergent status-seeking in elite clubs: Brazil, China, and the BRICS expansion in Latin America
- Author:
- Luis Gouveia Junior
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- BRICS increased its geopolitical reach with a recent expansion. However, a divergent status-seeking, conceptualized as antagonistic strategies to gain status, emerged in BRICS during this process. While China defended the expansion, Brazil hesitated to accept it. Focusing on Latin America, where both seek to gain status, I analyzed how Brazil’s and China’s divergent status-seeking influenced the applications of Argentina, Bolivia, Cuba, and Venezuela for BRICS. I concluded that status-seeking motivations drove the candidacies of these states. However, Brazil served as a gatekeeper, potentially hardening the acceptance of Latin American countries in BRICS due to status calculations. Argentina’s entry was more acceptable for Brazil’s strategy to garner prestige than Venezuela’s. Meanwhile, China defended a broader expansion, supporting all four candidacies.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, BRICS, Regional Politics, and Status
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Brazil, South America, and Latin America
236. Cinema as soft power: China’s strategic narratives in Brazil
- Author:
- Paulo Menechelli
- Publication Date:
- 12-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines how China leverages cinema as a soft power tool in Brazil, focusing on film festivals, co-productions, and Confucius Institute initiatives. Adopting a poststructuralist approach, it analyzes the strategic narratives embedded in these efforts and their reception by Brazilian audiences. While initiatives like the Looking China Youth Film Project show promise, challenges persist, including Hollywood’s dominance and limited audience reach. The delayed 2017 co-production agreement underscores the complexity of bilateral cultural engagement. By highlighting both the potential and limitations of China’s cinematic strategy, the paper contributes to understanding the cultural dimensions of China–Latin America relations.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Soft Power, Cinema, and Strategic Narratives
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, Brazil, and South America
237. A Costly Illusion of Control: No Winners, Many Losers in U.S.-China AI Race
- Author:
- Paul Triolo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The aggressive U.S. approach to China risks triggering conflict between the two nations while upending any progress to a global framework for AI safety and security
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Innovation, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
238. India–Japan Defense Partnership in the Indo-Pacific: Geopolitical Prospects and Challenges Under Trump
- Author:
- Yen Pham Thi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- This article examines the India–Japan defense partnership in the Indo-Pacific, focusing on its geopolitical prospects and challenges under the Trump administration. Strengthened by shared concerns over China’s rising influence and the convergence of their Indo-Pacific strategies, the partnership has evolved beyond symbolic engagement to include joint exercises, technology sharing, and defense dialogues aimed at preserving a free and rules-based regional order. At the same time, India’s reliance on Russian defense equipment, Japan’s dependence on US security guarantees, and the “America First” policy under Trump pose significant constraints. To sustain and deepen cooperation, both nations must enhance bilateral mechanisms, pursue strategic autonomy, expand multilateral engagements, and promote regional norms. These steps are essential for building a resilient, sustainable, and strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific amid a shifting US foreign policy landscape.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, India, Asia, and Indo-Pacific
239. The consequences of the Trump trade war for Europe
- Author:
- Julian Hinz, Isabelle Mejean, and Moritz Schularick
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- • Using the KITE model suite, we study the economic costs of the Trump tariff policy for Europe, and analyze the potential for trade diversion from China. • If the current tariff regime stays in place, trade between the U.S. and China would fall dramatically, hurting mainly the U.S. and the Chinese economies. The direct economic impact for Europe appears limited. • The expected rerouting of Chinese and U.S. exports to third countries is likely to intensify competition between European and Chinese producers in key markets. European consumersstand to benefit from lower prices.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Tariffs, Trade Wars, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, North America, and United States of America
240. The Great Equalizer: Effects of Chinese Official Finance on Economic Complexity across Recipient Countries
- Author:
- Jan Denninger and Lennart Kaplan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes whether Chinese aid and other forms of official finance affect structural transformation in low- and-middle income countries. Specifically, we employ an instrumental variables (IV) approach to causally analyze the effect on the Economic Complexity Index of 98 recipient countries over the 2002-2016 period. Economic complexity is defined as the diversity and sophistication of the goods an economy produces. The results reveal that Chinese official financing (OF) does not have statistically significant effects at the aggregate level; however, its effectiveness varies across sectors and recipients. A sectoral perspective shows that Chinese OF to recipients’ production sectors has a significantly negative effect on their economic complexity. These effects are most pronounced for high-complexity recipients, suggesting that China primarily targets industries below existing levels of complexity, thereby impeding potential structural transformation. In contrast, low-complexity recipients experience positive complexity effects from Chinese social sector projects, especially from those related to education. Given that China is known for its demand-driven approach of lending, recipients should push for an adjustment in the composition and allocation of Chinese OF to render structural transformation more likely.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Aid, and Complexity
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
241. Geostrategic thinking and quantum technology: How promises of quantum technology breakthroughs shape Sino-US rivalry
- Author:
- Markus Holmgren
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- Disruptive technologies have emerged as key arenas of strategic competition between the United States and China, and, alongside artificial intelligence, quantum technologies are key among them. By influencing current strategies and policies, their implications begin even before innovations materialize. Uncertainty about the future and the promised benefits of these technologies have implications for both nations’ build-up efforts, resilience strategies, and potential for pre-emptive actions. China has made rapid technological advancements in many fields, narrowing the gap with the United States. Examples include the release of an AI application by the Chinese company DeepSeek and China’s lead in quantum communication technologies. Beyond civilian applications, quantum technology promises significant breakthroughs in military applications, such as codebreaking, signal-free submarine navigation, and intrusion-proof communications.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Strategic Competition, Geoeconomics, and Quantum Computing
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
242. China Maritime Report No. 44: Dirty But Preparing to Fight: VADM Li Pengcheng's Downfall Amid Increasing PLAN Readiness
- Author:
- Christopher Sharman and Andrew S. Erickson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- Although corruption runs deep in the PLA Navy (PLAN) and across China’s armed forces, disciplinary-related removals appear not to have a major impact on naval capabilities or operations. The fight against corruption within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has General Secretary Xi Jinping’s attention and appears to be picking up steam for 2025. The Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) issued a report on 25 December 2024 identifying Vice Admiral Li Pengcheng (李鹏程) as one of eight NPC deputies removed for “serious violations of discipline and the law.” Li was an officer on the fast track and identified early in his career by PLA press as one to watch. He had the unprecedented distinction of having command of two separate Gulf of Aden anti-piracy escort task force deployments, extensive international maritime experience, and involvement in some of the PLAN’s most significant international navy accomplishments. Li’s career and his operations in the Mediterranean Sea had the personal attention of Central Military Commission (CMC) Chairman Xi. Vice Admiral Li Pengcheng replaced Vice Admiral Ju Xinchun (鞠新春) as the Commander of the Southern Theater Command (STC) Navy roughly a year ago. Admiral Ju suffered Admiral Li’s same fate. Comparing and contrasting two consecutive PLAN STC commanders serving in the same capacity, sacked one year apart, provides a revealing dataset to analyze the impact of sacking the commander, and of corruption more broadly, on PLAN operational capabilities and how they affect the force. The PLAN may be playing high-stakes musical chairs with its leadership, but it has a deep enough talent pool to do so without prohibitive problems. When one leader is purged, another is on deck. Politicized corruption investigations and their imposition of costs are fundamentally a speedbump rather than a showstopper. Regardless of corruption’s pervasive persistence, PLAN operational capabilities continue to improve, and cutting-edge, lethal weapons systems regularly enter service. Corruption may contribute to inefficiencies, but it does not curtail PLAN advances. Related removals are neither an indicator of prohibitive incompetence nor a self-defeating constraint on operational capabilities.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Leadership, Navy, People's Liberation Army (PLA), Ju Xinchun, Southern Theater Command, and Readiness
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
243. China Maritime Report No. 45: The PLA Navy's Hospital Ship Fleet: Concerns, Developments, and Future Prospects
- Author:
- Jonathan Robinson
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
- Abstract:
- The PRC’s hospital ship ecosystem comprises at least 17 vessels. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operates 13 ships, while the state ship building sector has developed (or is developing) at least four civilian hospital ships for domestic and foreign clients. PLAN hospital ships serve two main missions: (1) Provide medical support to PLA personnel, especially those stationed around the mainland or on Chinese-occupied islands in the South China Sea. (2) Support maritime global health engagement, chiefly through missions conducted by the Peace Ark hospital ship. Almost a third (21) of the Peace Ark’s 71 port visits since 2010 have been in Melanesia and East Africa. A further fifth (12) of all visits have been to ports in the northeast Indian Ocean and West Africa. The launch of the Silk Road Ark in 2023 may increase the PRC’s maritime global health engagement capacity in the coming years. In the event of a conflict, some PLAN hospital ships would not be in compliance with international conventions on the proper identification and uses of these vessels. They lack the required markings, potentially possess armaments, or are not exclusively used as hospital ships. This could complicate the decision making of China’s opponents, especially during wartime. China’s private sector construction of hospital ships could potentially provide the PRC with the skills and knowhow to rapidly expand the PLAN’s hospital ship fleet during a conflict. U.S. Navy planners should consider how the PLAN may use its hospital ships in a conflict and how these vessels may link with other humanitarian activities seen in these settings, such as maritime humanitarian corridors, exchange of prisoners, or civilian humanitarian capabilities.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Navy, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Hospital Ship
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
244. Come and (Re)discover China: Staunchly Patriotic, Sincerely Religious, and Eager to Further Engage with the World
- Author:
- Bart Dessein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- While elderly women and men are happily singing and dancing on the shores of Hangzhou’s famous West Lake, grandparents are taking their grandchildren out for a stroll and a boat trip on the lake. Buddhist monasteries in the vicinity of Ningbo, a coastal city south of Shanghai that has recently been elevated to a ‘new first-tier city,’ are teeming with monks who have retreated from every-day life and devote themselves to the word of the Buddha. On a daily basis, tens of thousands of ordinary citizens visit Putuoshan, an insular sanctuary just off the coast of Ningbo, devoted to Avalokitesvara, the Buddhist god(ess) of compassion. In a small place in the neighborhood of Ningbo, the local monastery has newly built the ‘Avalokitesvara’s Dharma-world,’ a temple complex in full marble, ornamented with precious stones and gold leaf, venerating the same Buddhist god(ess). Also in early morning Beijing, hundreds of people are queuing up, waiting for the gates of the Lama temple to open, so that they can enter to pay their respect to the Buddhist deities. Meanwhile, the number of European tourists – despite the extended visa free travel possibilities of up to one month for many European citizens – can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Even in cities such as Shanghai where, judging from the attendance in the breakfast room of an international hotel, the foreign guests are of Indian or Near-Eastern descent, and where shops that have closed down business and commercial spaces for rent in newly built high-rise buildings catch the eye. Also in Hangzhou (equally a new first-tier city), top-end restaurants and small street stalls alike are waiting for customers. This picture is repeated in Anyang, a provincial town in Henan Province, where waitresses and waiters brave the freezing cold to lure customers into their restaurants.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Religion, and Tourism
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia-Pacific
245. Summits and Sanctions, War and Peace: Is the EU Still in the Game?
- Author:
- Sven Biscop
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- As I set out for Beijing in early July, to teach my annual summer course on grand strategy and great powers, I knew in advance what all my Chinese interlocutors would make fun of: Mark Rutte’s and Donald Trump’s embarrassing “Daddy moment” at the NATO Summit in The Hague, epitomising European subservience to the United States. While I was still in Beijing, the EU-China Summit produced the expected non-result. That didn’t seem to bother my Chinese contacts, or so they pretended. And shortly after returning to Brussels, Ursula von der Leyen and Trump announced the EU-US trade deal – a bad deal whose main merit is that it avoided an even worse one. Even the EU’s claim to be a strong and unified economic player, as opposed to its often divided diplomatic and military posture, begins to sound hollow. One has to wonder: is the EU still in the game of great power politics?
- Topic:
- Sanctions, European Union, Grand Strategy, Trade, and Great Powers
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe
246. Stepping up Engagement in the Sahel: Russia, China, Turkey and the Gulf States
- Author:
- Nina Wilén
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the past five years, since the latest wave of coups began in 2020, states in the Sahel have strategically realigned and shifted external partnerships. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger suspended their security collaboration with their long-term ally, France, following their respective coups between 2020 and 2023, and demanded for the immediate withdrawal of French troops while advancing a new narrative of sovereignty. In 2023 Mali’s regime ousted the decade-long, 13,000 troops-strong UN peacekeeping mission in the country, MINUSMA, while Niger expelled the EU’s two security and defense missions, one of which had been deployed since 2012. A few months later, Niger also broke off a decade-long defense partnership with the US. In a second wave of expulsion, yet different in manner and context, Chad, Senegal and Ivory Coast also suspended military collaboration with France in 2024. This recent expulsion of Western and multilateral partners has been accompanied by a turn by Sahelian states to old and new, predominantly authoritarian, actors. This shift reflects an effort by the military regimes to project independence, diversify their partners and ultimately maintain their hold on power. Traditional partners like China and Russia have intensified economic and security relationships with their Sahelian partners during the past few years, while newer partners like Turkey and the Gulf states have increased their presence and influence in the region through infrastructure projects, arms exports and natural resource deals. At the same time, the exit by the AES states from the regional organisation ECOWAS has resulted in both new partnerships and new tensions among member states, profoundly reshaping the regional landscape. This article, the second in a two-part series examining the security and political context in the Sahel, explores these evolving partnerships with non-Western actors, focusing in particular on the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. It examines the broader lines of cooperation and engagement by Russia, China, Turkey and the Gulf states and identifies both similarities and important differences in their approaches. The aim is to provide a clearer overview of the Sahel’s shifting international relationships and to deepen our understanding of the dynamics, tensions and strategic choices among non-Western partners. differences and tensions between the non-Western partners. With a growing number of external actors competing for influence in the Sahel, Europe must base its recalibrated (re)engagement on a solid understanding of these dynamics.
- Topic:
- Politics, Coup, Engagement, and Security Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Turkey, Asia, Sahel, and Gulf Nations
247. Aligning global military posture with U.S. interests
- Author:
- Jennifer Kavanagh and Dan Caldwell
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The Pentagon should revise the U.S. global military posture to be consistent with protecting vital national interests based on a grand strategy of realism and restraint. This will mean reducing the size of the military footprint in certain regions and changing the mix and location of military forces in others. A review of the U.S. global military posture should focus on four priorities: defending the homeland, preventing the rise of a rival regional hegemon in key areas, burden shifting to allies and partners, and protecting U.S. economic security. The current military posture in Europe is too large, encouraging free-riding by European allies and preventing them from taking more responsibility for their own security. U.S. troop levels should be reduced to approximately where they were before Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine. This will involve the withdrawal of some ground combat units, multiple fighter squadrons, and several destroyers. Likewise, the military posture in the Middle East is too large given limited U.S. interests and the region’s lack of an existential military threat to the U.S. homeland. Air and naval assets deployed after the 2023 attacks on Israel should be removed, post-9/11 legacy deployments in Iraq and Syria should be ended, and troops in Kuwait and Qatar should be fully withdrawn. The U.S. military posture in East Asia should be realigned to focus on balancing Chinese power and protecting U.S. interests. Recommended changes include removing most ground forces and two fighter squadrons from South Korea, moving U.S. forces away from the Chinese coast, and shifting more frontline defense responsibilities to allies like Japan and the Philippines.
- Topic:
- Grand Strategy, Strategic Interests, Military, and Pentagon
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
248. Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan?
- Author:
- Jennifer Kavanagh
- Publication Date:
- 09-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The small island of Taiwan is often at the center of U.S. foreign policy discourse. This is thanks to the threat of a Chinese invasion and fears over a resulting loss of U.S. military and economic power in the region. A recent survey by Defense Priorities shows there is substantial disagreement among experts as to how the United States should and would respond to a Taiwan conflict. This suggests the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan is working. The experts surveyed largely agreed that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan, a departure from political and military leaders who have inflated the possibility. They also tended to agree that China is unlikely to strike U.S. military bases in East Asia ahead of a Taiwan invasion, which would grant U.S. leaders flexibility in how they respond to this scenario. These experts are divided, however, on what that response should look like. Some say the United States should use direct military force in Taiwan while others argue it should only send military aid. Very few think the U.S. should stay out completely. Even as they acknowledge that a successful seizure of Taiwan would not offer China significant military or economic benefits and recognize the enormous risks and costs to the United States of entering a Taiwan conflict, some experts continue to support a U.S. intervention. This tension is perhaps best explained by a lingering attachment to the pursuit of U.S. hegemony.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Strategic Ambiguity
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
249. Target Taiwan: Challenges for a U.S. intervention
- Author:
- Lyle Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- China could attack Taiwan, attempting a fait accompli before the United States could mobilize sufficient forces in theater to defend it. Chinese advantages of proximity and will suggest that the U.S. would pay a heavy price in this scenario. U.S. ground forces would struggle to enter the combat theater in the relevant time because of uncertainties related to the air and sea campaigns. Attempts to insert U.S. ground forces in peacetime could ignite the very conflict they would intend to deter. Chinese missile, air, and drone assaults could damage U.S. airfields in the region and slow U.S. air support, acutely degrading U.S. maritime operations and Taiwan’s ground defenses. Because U.S. Navy surface forces, including aircraft carrier battle groups, are vulnerable to China’s A2/AD systems, combat in a Taiwan scenario would likely be disproportionately borne by the U.S. Navy submarine force. While these submarines could do damage to the Chinese Navy, they probably lack sufficient firepower to affect the overall outcome of a war. Surging forward U.S. air and naval power in a Taiwan scenario would entail incredible risks, including nuclear escalation. Any war or even intensive militarized rivalry between the U.S. and China would entail enormous risks in exchange for little gain.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Armed Forces, Military Intervention, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
250. Target Taiwan: Prospects for a Chinese invasion
- Author:
- Lyle Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 10-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- In a scenario where China attempts an amphibious invasion of Taiwan and the United States does not fight, the invasion will likely succeed assuming Beijing is willing to bear heavy casualties. Taiwan’s vulnerability to China is due to its proximity, since it is located well within range of Chinese missiles, airpower, rocket artillery, helicopters, and paratroopers. All this will reduce Taiwan’s ability to prevent an amphibious landing. Due to its air superiority and the geography of Taiwan, which is mostly urban and mountainous, China can plan for an infantry fight, at least initially, not one dominated by heavy armor. Hence, civilian vessels, including small craft of all types, can help ferry most troops ashore. While an operation to seize Taiwan would be a highly risky endeavor that could result in heavy Chinese losses, Beijing would likely be motivated to bear such costs, since it views national unification as a core interest. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan thus cannot be discounted and Taiwan should prepare by boosting its defense spending, emphasizing its own self-reliance, and engaging in diplomacy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Armed Conflict, Vulnerability, and Invasion
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America