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4801. North Korea's External Economic Relations

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
North Korea's international transactions have grown since the 1990s famine period. Illicit transactions appear to account for a declining share of trade. Direct investment is rising, but the county remains significantly dependent on aid to finance imports. Interdependence with South Korea and China is rising, but the nature of integration with these two partners is very different: China's interaction with North Korea appears to be increasingly on market-oriented terms, while South Korea's involvement has a growing noncommercial or aid component. These patterns have implications for North Korea's development, the effectiveness of UN sanctions, and its bargaining behavior in nuclear negotiations.
Topic:
Markets and United Nations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

4802. A (Lack of) Progress Report on China's Exchange Rate Policies

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
This working paper assesses the progress made in improving China's exchange rate policies over the past five years (that is, since 2002). I first discuss four indicators of progress on China's external imbalance and its exchange rate policies—namely, the change in (and level of) China's global current account position, movements in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi (RMB), the role of market forces in the determination of the RMB, and China's compliance with its obligations on exchange rate policy as a member of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I then discuss why the lack of progress in improving China's exchange rate policies matters for the economies of the China and the United States and for the international monetary and trading system. I also argue that several popular arguments and excuses for why more cannot be accomplished on removing the large undervaluation of the RMB are unpersuasive. Finally, I consider what can and should be done by China, the United States, and the IMF to accelerate progress over the next year or two.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Foreign Exchange
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

4803. Regional Monetary Arrangements in ASEAN+3 as Insurance through Reserve Accumulation and Swaps

Author:
O.G. Dayaratna-Banda and John Whalley
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
East Asia is witnessing the emergence of an informal monetary system which focuses on self-insurance through own reserve accumulation and co-insurance through swaps. The former is concentrated in a small number of large countries (China, Japan, and Korea), while the latter involves informal monetary cooperation among monetary authorities in a large number of countries. The origins of this system lie in the Asian financial crises, and reflect concerns both to avoid repetition of similar events and any spread of further crises through contagion effects. This paper first characterizes and documents this emerging system describing how it works and what its objectives are, and then discusses its performance, its incompleteness, and assesses the system's ability to move towards deeper integration without adopting a single monetary authority as well as the impediments it faces. What is clear is that this type of system among individual countries is incomplete and falls well short of complete monetary integration, but at present it performs well even if it experiences a number of deficiencies. Most countries seem better off with partial reserve pooling, while incremental gains from higher degrees of pooling in the region tend to be small.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and Korea

4804. EU Commercial Policy in a Multipolar Trading System

Author:
Simon Evenett
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
In recent years, the bipolar multilateral trading system of the post-war years has given way to a multipolar alternative. Although many specifics have yet to be determined, some contours of this new trade policy landscape are coming into focus and in this short paper I examine their implications for the European Union's external commercial policy. Particular attention is given to both the state of business-government relations and the propensity to liberalise under the auspices of reciprocal trade agreements by Brazil, India, and China; the potential new poles of the world trading system. I consider the likely consequences of these developments, plus factors internal to both the European Union and the United States, for the possible con-tent of future multilateral trade initiatives.
Topic:
Development, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, India, and Brazil

4805. After the MFA, the CCAs (China Containment Agreements)

Author:
O.G. Dayaratna-Banda and John Whalley
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The post-Multi Fiber Agreement (MFA) trade regime in textile and apparel appears to be emerging in ways which are quite different from what had been widely anticipated before the termination of Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). Since the end of ATC, there has been growing and spreading set of trade restrictions targeted primarily at China, the largest shipper of textile and apparel, through a series of agreements that we term China Containment Agreements. We discuss the evolution of these agreements, their behavioural responses, and then draw their parallels to those under the older MFA. We argue that there is potential for these restrictions to prolong and grow, as well as spread to other products through the product-specific safeguards mechanism included in the conditions of China's World Trade Organization accession.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4806. Technology Upgrading and China's Growth Strategy to 2020

Author:
John Whalley and Weimin Zhou
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
It is widely believed in China that in order to meet the target of tripling gross domestic product (GDP) per capita between 2005 and 2020, as set out in China's 11th five-year plan in 2005, a change in China's growth strategy from FDI promotion and export-led growth towards technology upgrading and higher productivity growth in manufacturing needs to occur. This paper seeks to evaluate the potential effectiveness of recent government initiatives to be taken to achieve these ends. In particular, plans these include increased educational spending, tax incentives, large research and development (R) projects, and changes to the regulatory environment. In measuring China's economic growth potential towards 2020, this paper employs an economic analysis of Total Factor Productivity and identifies the importance of continued domestic technical innovation.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4807. Consequences of an Emerging China: Is Development Space Disappearing for Latin America and the Caribbean?

Author:
Nicola Phillips
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The economic rise of China has caused a redrawing of global production and value chains, a restructuring of the global division of labour, and a restructuring of patterns of global demand and of the terms of trade. This paper examines the nature of the emerging economic relationship between Latin America and the Caribbean and China, and seeks to offer some reflections on the significance of this relationship for Latin American and Caribbean development. It begins with an overview of trade and investment relationships between Latin American countries and China, and examines the significance of the emergence of China for the region's development strategies and developmental prospects in greater detail. This paper reflects on the early impact of these emerging arrangements on the existing economic relationship between Latin America and the United States, and seeks in some ways to challenge understandings of this sort based on national economies and instead argues for a focus on global production and value chains, as well the new transnational division of labour.
Topic:
Development
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Asia, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

4808. Energy Sovereignty and Security

Author:
Greg Austin and Danila Bochkarev
Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Energy security has re-surfaced as a headline issue in the policy councils of Europe and the Americas in a way not seen since the 1970s. On the one hand, some leaders believe that there is a new energy rivalry with ominous geopolitical overtones, and they look at Russia and China with suspicion in this regard. On the other hand, at a more commercial level, there has been rising uncertainty about oil supply and demand, because of political instability in the Persian Gulf and rampant consumption in the major industrial countries and emerging economies. Price volatility, long a feature of the oil market, reached levels not seen for some years, leading to fresh concerns about 'peak oil'.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Globalization, and Nationalism
Political Geography:
Russia, China, America, and Europe

4809. Olimpiadas y Copa Mundial de Fútbol: ¿Competencias deportivas o instrumentos políticos?

Author:
Karina Garcia
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the setting of the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup employing a geopolitical approach. To identify in which way these international sports events are geopolitical instruments of the International System, I present a revision of different elements involved in the selection of China and South Africa as respective hosts of the Olympic Games of 2008 and the World Cup of 2010, such as the motives, goals and possible benefits of these two countries. In this way, I sustain the thesis that the Olympic Games and the World Cup are political instruments used by the States to pursue their geopolitical interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Africa

4810. Scope and limits of the Chinese technologic and scientific system

Author:
Gian Carlo Delgado-Ramos
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
CONfines de Relaciones Internacionales y Ciencia Política
Abstract:
Using the case of nanotechnology, one of the most promising technological niches of the 21st century and one that is increasing in China, the purpose of this article is three-fold. One, the article discusses the concepts of scientific-technology system and industrial network in order to characterize the structure of development in countries that are considered as emerging or peripheral economies. Two, the term maquila-technology is analyzed in relation with the endogenous development effects of science and technology on the linkages among national production networks in China. This includes an analysis of the role of the state, the private sector, and the knowledge centers of production. And, three, the article evaluates other aspects, such as the military, that result in a friction between a progressively technological competitiveness of China with the industrial interests of the West.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia