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4701. Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
By exploring the export performances and specialization patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (i) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textile and leather products; (ii) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (iii) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most of the European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (iv) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; and (v) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (vi) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Europe, South Asia, Malaysia, India, Asia, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand

4702. Vulnerability, Trust and Microcredit: The Case of China's Rural Poor

Author:
Calum G. Turvey and Rong Kong
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the economic conditions of rural households in China. Historical survey data indicate that over 80 per cent of rural households earn less than 4,500 yuan in net disposable income each year, that for the vast majority of rural households disposable income is insufficient to meet food consumption needs, and that in terms of economic growth rural households are receiving an ever decreasing percentage of China's growing economy with rural household incomes being only 31 per cent of urban household income in 2004.
Topic:
Economics and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4703. A Tale of Two Countries: Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Rice Productivity in China and Brazil

Author:
Liangzhi You
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper looks at differences in spatial and temporal variation of rice yields in China and Brazil. We find that rice yields in China have converged over time and that rice production has become more and more homogeneous. In contrast, rice yields in Brazil have diverged over time, primarily due to variations in upland rice yields. Three hypotheses are put forward to explain the different behaviour of rice yields in Brazil and China: (i) differences in production systems (i.e., irrigated in China versus upland in Brazil); (ii) changes in rainfall patterns and (iii) bias in agricultural R favouring irrigated rice. Our empirical analysis provides support to the first two hypotheses by establishing that upland rice is subjected to much greater variation in yields than irrigated rice and that changing rainfall patterns affect mostly upland rice. We also provide evidence of the bias towards irrigated systems by looking at the patterns of varietal release.
Topic:
Agriculture
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

4704. Renminbi Exchange Rates and Relevant Institutional Factors

Author:
Yi Gang
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In recent years, China has experienced rapid social and economic development. Against this backdrop, growing pressure for renminbi appreciation emerged and China's trade surplus and foreign reserves increased rapidly. This article explains the development of the RMB exchange rate by examining productivity growth and institutional factors, such as the transformation of the foreign exchange rate system and legal reforms to strengthen the rule of law.
Political Geography:
China

4705. The Costs and Implications of PBC Sterilization

Author:
John Greenwood
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Since China revalued its currency against the U.S. dollar by 2.1 percent in July 2005, from RMB 8.27 per US$ to RMB 8.11, the RMB has appreciated by a further 14 per cent percent to about RMB 6.97 per US$ (as of May 2008). On a trade-weighted basis, however, the currency has appreciated less than half this amount. Using J.P. Morgan's trade-weighted index (broad basis) for the RMB, the currency appreciated just 6.1 percent in nominal terms between August 2005 and May 2008. Although the currency has been very gradually appreciating, the flexibility promised by China's leaders has been more illusory than real, and, more importantly, the underlying international payment imbalances have continued to widen both in absolute terms and as a fraction of GDP.
Political Geography:
China

4706. The Role of the Renminbi in the World Economy

Author:
Fred Hu
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
As China's economy has continued its remarkable expansion and gained an increasingly important role in the global economy, China's currency, the renminbi (RMB), has also captured growing attention from investors and policymakers around the world. In this article, I briefly discuss three significant issues concerning the renminbi—namely, the near-term direction of the exchange rate, the renminbi's convertibility in the medium term, and the currency's international role down the road in the future.
Political Geography:
China

4707. The dragon in the Pacific: more opportunity than threat

Author:
Fergus Hanson
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? China runs an opaque aid program in the Pacific that has fuelled suspicions about its motives in the region and that undermines efforts to improve accountability, governance and stability. Despite concerns about China's aid program, China and Australia share broadly similar interests in the region and Australia and other donors would gain from working with China to improve the quality of its aid and reduce its destabilising side effects. In a new Lowy Institute Policy Brief, Fergus Hanson suggests several new approaches to engaging China on its aid program.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia

4708. Financial Repression in China

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
China\'s banking sector has been largely transformed over the past decade. Several of the largest banks have been restructured, recapitalized, and listed. Governance has improved, notably through the appointment of independent members to boards of directors. A vigorous new regulatory and supervisory agency, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), has introduced new accounting standards, a revised risk weighting system for measuring capital, more rigorous loan loss criteria, heightened provisioning requirements, and other significant changes. Foreign banks have entered the market, both through their own branches and subsidiaries and through strategic investments in domestic banks, bringing better banking practices and much needed additional competition.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4709. The Political Economy of Successful Reform: Asian Stratagems

Author:
Dennis Arroyo
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Major economic reforms are often politically difficult, causing pain to voters and provoking unrest. They may be opposed by politicians with short time horizons. They may collide with the established ideology and an entrenched ruling party. They may be resisted by bureaucrats and by vested interests. Obstacles to major economic reform can be daunting in democratic and autocratic polities alike.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand

4710. Regional energy security: An elusive objective?

Author:
Stuart Harris
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
Energy issues are a central feature of economic and political debate. The debate focuses not only on the growing regional energy demands from China and India, but also on the cyclical and structural factors in the international energy market that are significant and that lead to considerable uncertainties about energy accessibility, prices and supply reliability. For the Asian region, considerations of supply security are increasingly part of global energy security concerns. The global debate about long-term resource availability and supply, particularly of oil and gas, centres on the questions of whether adequate resources will exist to meet growing global demands in the next twenty-plus years, or whether the resources are adequate but will not be brought to market because of underinvestment and related higher costs in the oil and gas industry. Options for alternative supply sources and alternative fuels are, at the same time, becoming constrained by concerns about the impacts on climate change and, in the case of biofuels, on food and feed supplies. Adjustments to the expected continuing increases in energy trend prices will be generally difficult for developed countries, including Australia, but especially so for developing countries including those in Asia.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific