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5352. Clean Air for Asia - China - India - Japan - United States Cooperation to Reduce Air Pollution in China and India
- Author:
- Richard L. Lawson, John R. Lyman, Donald L. Guertin, Tarun Das, Shinji Fukukawa, and Yang Jike
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- For China and India, rapid economic growth is imperative to alleviate poverty, raise income levels and improve their citizens' quality of life. In 2000, China and India's combined populations of 2.3 billion represented over 38 percent of the world's population. With both countries determined to grow their economies rapidly, there will be an associated rapid rise in energy demand. One of the most significant problems facing the two countries is the existing and increasing level of air pollution that will accompany growing energy consumption. This report focuses on the challenge of developing economic, energy, and environmental policies that will complement existing policies designed to reconcile the drive for economic growth with the need for greater environmental protection of air quality.
- Topic:
- Economics and Environment
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, India, and Asia
5353. Free Movement of People, Goods, Services and Capital in View of the Context of Stability Pact
- Author:
- Mladen Stanicic
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian National Defence Academy
- Abstract:
- The Stability Pact is a strategic concept whose aim is to warrant long- term peace and stability in South-Eastern Europe. It is becoming an indispensable element of the global security structure which is currently being constructed in relations between the big powers, the USA, Russia and China, with the active participation of the United Nations, the European Union, international financial institutions and individual countries. As one of the sponsors of the pact, the European Union is keenly interested in stability and peace among its next-door neighbours, some of whom are covered by the pending eastern enlargement. This enlargement is intended to transcend centuries of civilisational and religious divisions in Europe, the causes of many political and armed conflicts in the past. The vision of Europe in the 21st century, reaching all the way to the borders of the former Soviet Union, is that of a multicultural community encompassing states with diverse civilisational, religious, ethnic and cultural characteristics.
- Topic:
- Security, Globalization, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Eastern Europe
5354. The Bush Administration's Nuclear Strategy and Its Implications for China's Security
- Author:
- Tian Jingmei
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- Since the Bush administration took office, and especially since excerpts of the Nuclear Posture Review were released, there have appeared in America some heated arguments about the Bush administration's changes to the Clinton administration's nuclear strategy, what consequences these changes would produce, and what influences they would exert on international and regional security. Different people have different views. The purpose of this working paper is to find solutions to these key issues. The effects of the Bush administration's nuclear strategy on China's security are also discussed.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Asia
5355. CERI: Developing Border Cooperation between China and Russia
- Author:
- Sébastien Colin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
- Abstract:
- Since the resumption of talks between China and Russia – still the Soviet Union when this occurred in the mid-1980s, relations between the two countries have been particularly dynamic. On the international level, the two countries in fact share the same viewpoint on a number of issues. These mutual concerns led to the signing of a strategic partnership in 1997, then a new treaty of friendship in 2001. The complementarity between the two countries in the energy and arms sectors also stimulates cooperation. However, this alliance is not without its limits. The United States, its primary target, can easily short-circuit it, as it did just after the September 11, 2001 attacks. In the field of cooperation, the intensity and structure of trade between the two countries are both inadequate. The rise in trade during the 1990s was very uneven and marked by a drop between 1994 and 1996. The main causes of this are situated at the local echelon along the Chinese-Russian border. After the dynamism characteristic of the 1988-1993 period, the opening of the border triggered new problems, such as illegal Chinese immigration in the little-inhabited border zones of Russia. Although this trend caused friction among the local Russian population, it was mainly the retrocession of certain Russian territories to China when the border was demarcated between 1993 and 1997 that radicalized the inhabitants, paralyzing border cooperation. The Russian and Chinese government played an active role in attempting to resolve most of these disputes, as the Tumen program illustrated. Since then, the various authorities in the two countries have tried to revitalize border cooperation, but a number of problems remain that are mainly economic in nature and vary depending on the border region.
- Topic:
- Development and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia
5356. In Search of 'Suitable Positions' in the Asia Pacific: Negotiating the U.S. China Relationship and Regional Security
- Author:
- Evelyn Goh
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper argues that the crucial determinant of Asia-Pacific security is whether the US and China can negotiate their relationship and their relative positions and roles in such a way as to produce sustainable regional stability. It examines three alternative models to assess some of the possible processes and outcomes in negotiating Sino-American coexistence. (I) Power transition, in which there is a significant structural shift in the regional system as a rising China challenges US dominance, with a range of possible outcomes; (II) The maintenance of the status quo of US strategic dominance over the region, which China does not challenge concentrating instead on inernal consolidation and on developing its economic power; and (III) Negotiated change, by which the two powers coordinate to manage a more fundamental structural transformation, either through froming a concert (duet) of power, or by moving towards a regional security community. The paper suggests that Model II is likely for the short-to medium-term; Model III for the medium term; and Model I for the long term.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Asia
5357. The Correlates of Nationalism In Beijing Public Opinion
- Author:
- Alastair Iain Johnston
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- In the past public opinion has never really been an important issue in Chinese foreign policy studies for obvious reasons. China, after all, is not a country where voters can recall poorly performing political leaders. Foreign policy is still one of the most sensitive public policy issues where unapproved or sharp public dissent and criticism can be politically risky. And the Chinese political system is still a dictatorship.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- China and Beijing
5358. Asian Oil Market Outlook: Role of the Key Players
- Author:
- Jeffrey Brown and Kang Wu
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- The Asia Pacific region's dynamic oil market is marked by strong growth in consumption, declining regional oil production, and over capacity in its highly competitive oil-refining sector. Its "key players" are China, India, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea—a group that includes the region's five top consumers and three of its major producers—and developments in these countries will have commercial and strategic implications for the whole region. On the consumption side, Japan's slow growth in demand has failed to dampen regional growth, which is now driven by China and India's fast growing thirst for oil. On the supply side, Indonesia's inevitable transition to a net oil importer highlights the trend toward growing dependence on Middle East oil, which already comprises 42–90 percent of imports among the key players. In response to this trend, China, Japan, and South Korea are pushing to acquire overseas oil reserves, with Japan and China already locked in a fierce competition for projected Russian supplies—a type of struggle that will likely become more commonplace.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Indonesia, Middle East, India, Asia, and South Korea
5359. The Move to Preferential Trade in the Western Pacific Rim
- Author:
- John Ravenhill
- Publication Date:
- 06-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Western Pacific Rim states have been slow to participate in preferential trade agreements (PTAs). In the past four years, however, more than 40 PTAs involving these economies have been proposed or are being implemented. For the first time, Japan and China have either signed or are negotiating bilateral or plurilateral agreements. The new interest in PTAs reflects the perception that they have been successful in other parts of the world, and is reinforced by dissatisfaction with the region's existing trade groupings. Although arguments can be made in favor of PTAs, they amplify political considerations in trade agreements, may adversely affect the political balance in participating countries, impose costs on nonparticipants, and deplete scarce negotiating resources. Nevertheless, the number of western Pacific Rim states participating in PTAs continues to climb. Northeast Asian countries have been following Europe in exploiting loopholes in WTO rules on PTAs to protect their noncompetitive sectors, thereby strengthening their political positions, which will likely make global liberalization more difficult.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
5360. Changing Korean Perceptions of the Post-Cold War Era and the U.S.-ROK Alliance
- Author:
- Choong Nam Kim
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- For half a century the United States and South Korea have been united in an alliance that has simultaneously contained North Korea and projected American power into Northeast Asia. Now that alliance is being questioned by many South Koreans, whose country has developed from a poor, authoritarian state into the world's 11th largest economy and a vital democracy. Along the way South Koreans' views of themselves and of other nations have changed. Improved relations with China and Russia, and a policy of engagement with North Korea, have reduced the country's dependence on the United States and South Koreans' tolerance for what they view as American arrogance and unilateralism. Indeed, Koreans today view their Cold War allies (the United States and Japan) more negatively than their Cold War enemies (North Korea and China), a situation that would have been unimaginable a decade ago. The poorly coordinated North Korea policy of Seoul and Washington appears to be a direct cause of anti-Americanism, which will grow unless the two countries develop a more equal, mutually acceptable relationship.
- Topic:
- Cold War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Israel, South Korea, and North Korea
5361. China's State-Owned Enterprises: Thriving or Crumbling?
- Author:
- Christopher A. McNally
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Even though China's state firms lost their near-monopoly status after 1978, they still form the country's financial and industrial nucleus.Nevertheless, in early 1996 the total losses of these state-owned enterprises (SOEs) exceeded profits for the first time. With the economy threatened, offi-cialdom issued a mandate in 1997: SOEs must become profitable in three years. In 2001, statistics showed a massive turn around, and victory was declared. Despite doubts about the official statistics, substantial improvement did seem evident. The question was, what caused it? While massive layoffs and corporate restructuring did increase efficiency, most improvements have been the result of external factors such as debt restructuring and government-arranged buy-outs and mergers. This strategy offers short-term rewards, but could be a disaster in the long term. Real reform of China's state sector requires financial reforms that bite (even more urgent with WTO entry), serious moves toward a social security system for displaced workers, and more outright priva-tization of state firms to give non-state shareholders real power on their boards.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- China
5362. Are We Taking China's Future for Granted?
- Author:
- Joseph C. Folio
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- During Fall 2003 the Schlesinger Working Group held two meetings (September 25th and November 3rd) to explore China's estimated political/ economic outlook and to determine what potential challenges might affect its projected future. The purpose of these meetings was not to predict a Chinese stumble or even collapse, but rather to examine events that could trigger a disruption of China's current, impressively successful economic trajectory, and to analyze what form that disruption could take. During the first meeting, participants identified potential disruption scenarios to which China remains vulnerable. The second meeting considered the implications of disruption for both China and the United States, and how these scenarios might affect U.S. policy. Working Group members did not attempt to assign probabilities for the identified potential disruptions or “failures.” Rather, they focused on the hurdles or challenges posed by these disruption scenarios, which the Chinese leadership would need to confront successfully in order to avoid losing control or endangering national cohesion. Participants generally agreed that any major disruption would most likely derive from an external shock that might negatively affect China's economic situation and possibly ignite collateral internal disruption via domestic unrest or leadership division. The group concurred that the Chinese leadership has sufficient strength and cohesion to manage most forms of internal disruption, or at least to adapt quickly and effectively to those that arise.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
5363. Development of the civil realm in Shanghai environmental politics
- Author:
- Seungho Lee
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- This chapter analyses the development in the civil realm of environmental politics in Shanghai. This study is an effort to identify environmental communities based on Mary Douglas's grid/group theory and an attempt to comprehend the nature of the dynamic interaction of the private and the public spheres, particularly within the public sphere between the state (the Shanghai government) and ethical social entities (environmental NGOs and other social groups). The contribution of the study lies in its revelation of how the civil realm in Shanghai has developed with a self - capacity to redress environmentally unfriendly policies over the last decade. Fieldwork carried out in 2002 identified a number of environmental Non Governmental Organisations, NGOs, and other social groups in Shanghai. It proved to be possible to highlight the recent emergence of environmental NGOs, including university students based organisations. The study evaluates how these groups have evolved and have survived in the transitional period in alliance with Government Organised NGOs, GONGOs, local communities (shequ), the media, international NGOs and the government. Although these environmental groups now commit themselves to various environmental issues, Shanghai does not have any particular NGO mainly engaged in freshwater issues. It is concluded that a collaboration of GONGOs, NGOs, and various environmental groups alongside international NGOs has led to the formation of a civil force that impacts Shanghai's environmental policy - making.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- China and Shanghai
5364. Ten Years Since Oslo: The PLO's "People's War" Strategy and Israel's Inadequate Response
- Author:
- Joel S. Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
- Abstract:
- Israel and the PLO have been confronting each other according to completely different paradigms of conflict. Since the late 1960s, the PLO has adopted a "people's war" paradigm that continued to guide its policies even after the signing of the 1993 Oslo Accords. According to the "people's war" paradigm, borrowed from Marxist-Leninist traditions in China and Vietnam, conflict is waged on both the political and military levels, but for militarily weaker guerilla groups, political conflict is more important, especially the delegitimization of an adversary and the division of his society. Prior to 1993, Israel largely responded to the PLO militarily as a terrorist threat, but not politically. After 1993, with the PLO "renouncing" terrorism, Israel embraced the PLO leadership and ignored the signs that the PLO was still engaged in political warfare against it (incitement, reluctance to alter PLO Covenant, UN votes, textbooks). Israeli governments later complained about these symptoms of political warfare, without identifying the cause. Established Israeli traditions place undue emphasis on the narrowly-framed military approach to the detriment of the political, which leaves Israel particularly vulnerable to broad-based strategic deception. Israeli policy-makers must reexamine the assumptions upon which they have based political and military policy over the last decade.
- Topic:
- Security, Religion, and War
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Vietnam, Arab Countries, and Oslo
5365. The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Future With Hope
- Author:
- James Lilley
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- You have clearly worked over the complicated relationship between Taiwan and China. I can only try to build on what Dr. Lin Chong--pin and Mr. Rostow have already described so lucidly. I would like to point out first that China chooses, for both tactical and emotional reasons, to place a special heavy emphasis on its relationship with Taiwan and to its point that Taiwan is part of China. Emotional, because this stirs up nationalism among a skeptical Chinese elite who have lost ideology. Tactical, because driving home the unity and sovereignty themes forces the U.S. on the defensive, i.e., the U.S. interferes in China's internal affairs, a cardinal sin in China's own lexicon. In reality, however, China has been practical. For almost fifty years Chinese propaganda has focused on Taiwan as a pure target, but objective circumstances have changed and so has China's strategy. China took over the Ta Chen Islands peacefully in 1954, its last significant territorial acquisition in the Taiwan Strait. Its later more militaristic approach against a well--defended Quemoy (Chin men) failed in 1958, and China retreated with much bluster and firing of cannons, many of them empty.
- Topic:
- Politics and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, and Asia
5366. What is Sovereignty? The Cases of Taiwan and Micronesia
- Author:
- Peter R. Rosenblatt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- The title of my contribution to this discussion raises a point that is easy to overlook in discussions relating to the legal status of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. The range of options across the Strait is not confined, as the title of this conference suggests, to the reunification of China or Taiwan's independence, although either of these is obviously a possibility. A more likely option, in my judgment, is some future status for the ROC which involves neither incorporation into the People's Republic of China nor the challenging step of a declaration of “independence” as the Republic of Taiwan. This third option embraces a multiplicity of status shadings involving a continuing evolution of the ROC's current status of de facto independence. It is this option that I would like to address.
- Topic:
- Politics and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
5367. China and Emerging Asia: Comrades or Competitors?
- Author:
- John W. Schindler, John G. Fernald, Prakash Loungani, and Alan J. Ahearne
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Do increases in China's exports reduce exports of other emerging Asian economies? We find that correlations between Chinese export growth and that of other emerging Asian economies are actually positive (though usually not significant), even after controlling for trading-partner income growth and real effective exchange rates. We also present results from a VAR estimation of aggregate trade equations on the relative importance of foreign income and exchange rates in determining Asian export growth. Although exchange rates do matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters even more. In addition, we examine specific products and find evidence that a considerable shifting of trade patterns is taking place, consistent with a 'flying geese' pattern in which China and ASEAN-4 move into the product space vacated by the NIEs. Our results suggest that China and emerging Asia are both comrades (overall) and competitors (in specific products).
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5368. Central Asian Leadership Succession: When, Not If
- Author:
- Eugene B. Rumer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Central Asian political landscape yields few signs of an impending storm in the near term. The absence of threats to the status quo, however, does not mean that it is acceptable or that it represents a stable political equilibrium in the region. Leadership succession in Central Asia bears watching for several reasons: as a precedent-setting process, it will provide the key missing element for the emerging political structures of the Central Asian states the tenure of the next generation will either make up for the shortcomings of its predecessors or aggravate them in the event of the latter, the stage will be set in Central Asia for more radical changes that could reverberate far beyond remote regional boundaries.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5369. Modernizing China's Military: A High-Stakes Gamble?
- Author:
- Howard M. Krawitz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- China's accelerated push to modernize the People's Liberation Army (PLA) raises two important questions: What impact will such change have upon the PLA image, status, and role in Chinese society? And how will Chinese military modernization affect the strategic interests and security concerns of the United States and China's neighbors in the region? Making the PLA into a more professional, technologically proficient force would certainly strengthen its capability to perform national defense, regional security, and other externally oriented missions more effectively. But modernization could also significantly change internal PLA demographics, resulting in a drastic alteration of the social contract that has traditionally existed between China's military and civilian society.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
5370. Resolving Korea's Nuclear Crisis: Tough Choices for China
- Author:
- Howard M. Krawitz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Clearly, Washington and Beijing do not see eye to eye on North Korea. From the U.S. perspective, North Korea is a rogue state (one that is still technically a U.S. enemy, to boot), with an announced intent to develop further its nuclear capability and acquire nuclear weapons—in spite of formal agreements in which Pyongyang promised not to engage in such pursuits. Pyongyang's rhetoric and behavior highlight its willingness to use nuclear blackmail as a tool for achieving its aims. It has heightened tensions by implying that it might export nuclear weapons or fissile material if its needs are not met. Summed up, North Korea poses a tangible, real-time threat to U.S. allies in East Asia and to U.S. national security interests.
- Topic:
- Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- China, Washington, Israel, and North Korea
5371. 'Oil for the Lamps of China'—Beijing's 21st Century Search for Energy
- Author:
- Bernard D. Cole
- Publication Date:
- 10-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- In 1933, Alice Tisdale Hobart, wife of the Standard Oil Company of New Jersey manager in Nanking, published Oil for the Lamps of China. Hobart had traveled widely in China and proved to be a very observant imperialist. Her fictional account of her experiences, not surprisingly, focused on the role played by Western businessmen, especially those engaged in importing and selling petroleum products. One thread that runs through her work is Chinese dependence on foreign sources of energy supplies, which remains the case today. This dependence on foreign- controlled sources means that Beijing's efforts to ensure the availability of energy resources adequate to fuel the nation's economic growth have important national security implications.
- Topic:
- Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
- Political Geography:
- China, Beijing, and Asia
5372. China Brief, Sars: Spreading Unrest
- Author:
- Willy Lam, William R. Hawkins, Harvey Stockwin, and Li Thian-hok
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome—the SARS virus—throughout China is a phenomenon that had previously been denied by authorities and had gone unreported. But the penetration of the disease is now being admitted publicly, and efforts to combat it have begun. While the immediate epidemic in Beijing appears to be in decline, the fear remains that the spread of SARS within China will still be difficult—and maybe impossible—to control, let alone to eliminate. World Health Organization (WHO) officials admit that what happens in China will “make or break” the course of the epidemic. China's neighbors, and particularly Hong Kong, worry that a failure to curtail the virus will inevitably result in a fresh round of crossborder infection, further intensifying the already grave economic impact of SARS on the region. At worst, a sustained epidemic could bring China's opening-up to the outside world to a screeching halt.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Beijing, and Hong Kong
5373. China Brief, Taiwan's presidential countdown: what does it mean for the united states?
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, John Tkacik, and Jonathan Mirsky
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Could Taiwan's voters elect a pro-unification candidate in 2004? Can the challenger, Kuomintang chairman Lien Chan, put together an electoral consensus of ethnic mainlanders, Hakkas and ethnic Taiwanese investors in China that will begin the process of moving Taiwan into the embrace of the People's Republic of China? The polls indicate it could be a fifty-fifty proposition, especially if the campaign's focus is the economy—not national identity. Washington should begin to consider its substantial strategic stake in Taiwan, and rethink the message that its diplomats in Taipei are sending Taiwan's public.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5374. China Brief, New Disease, New Leaders, Same Old Regime
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Harvey Stockwin, Gordon G. Chang, and Richard D. Fisher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- An epidemic, spread by official deception and indifference, is afflicting the Chinese people. What does this disease mean for the People's Republic of China?
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5375. China Brief, Beijing studies the U.S. war in Iraq
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Wangchuk Meston
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Chinese strategic and military experts are scrutinizing the U.S. war in Iraq, and for several reasons. First, if American and British forces become bogged down in their effort to liquidate the regime of Saddam Hussein, then it is much less likely that Washington will soon target other rogue regimes with weapons of mass destruction, such as North Korea, a Chinese ally.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Iraq, America, Washington, Israel, and North Korea
5376. China Brief, National People's Congress: Popularity and power
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Harvey Stockwin, Gordon G. Chang, and M. D. Nalapat
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Newly elected President Hu Jintao and his allies should take heart from the results of the recently concluded First Session of the Tenth National People's Congress (NPC).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5377. China Brief, Osama bin Laden in China
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Ahmad Lutfi, Gordon G. Chang, and Richard D. Jr. Fisher
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Beijing often downplays the size of its Xinjiang problem for fear of exposing the difficulties it faces containing the “cancer of terrorism.” Since September 11, 2001, Beijing has been forced to reverse this policy due to repeated terrorist attacks. The most recent of these took place on February 25, 2003, when two bombs ripped through two of Beijing's most prestigious universities. The blasts shattered Beijing's long-held claim that it has been winning its war on terror.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Beijing
5378. China Brief, Beijing: blockade buster?
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, William C. Triplett, and Dr. Gulshan Dietl
- Publication Date:
- 02-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Will Kim Jong Il just slam down the phone on China's president, Jiang Zemin? That's what Beijing wants us to think. “If Kim tells Jiang he is going to test a nuclear weapon unless Jiang gives him more aid, what do we do? We give him more aid. We don't have a choice,” says one Chinese analyst who has dealt with Pyongyang. “We have some influence, but we don't have the kind of relationship where we can tell Kim what to do. If we tell him to do something, he doesn't listen. If we threaten him, he listens even less. If Jiang called him, he might hang up.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5379. China Brief, China's 7-percent solution
- Author:
- James E. Auer, Willy Lam, Gordon G. Chang, Richard D. Fisher, and Holmes Liao
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- “If we didn't have China I would be suicidal,” chief Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach said this month. “It's the only bright spot in the world economy.” And bright spot it is: Beijing announced that its gross domestic product grew 8 percent last year. The rate is so good that some are wondering whether the People's Republic can become the new engine for world growth.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5380. China Brief, Xu Wenli, into American exile
- Author:
- Robyn Lim, Willy Lam, Jonathan Mirsky, and Thomas Woodrow
- Publication Date:
- 01-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- On Christmas Eve the Chinese government released Xu Wenli, the founder of the country's tiny Democratic Party, into American exile. Xu has spent sixteen of the last twenty-one years behind bars. The most interesting comments on this event came from John Kamm, who for years has had no equal for occasionally persuading the Chinese government to free its political “enemies”.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, America, and Israel
5381. Chinese-North Korean Relations at a Crossroads
- Author:
- Samuel S. Kim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- At the locus of the "last glacier of the Cold War," there is a double paradox at work on the Korean peninsula, structured and symbolized by two competing alliances forged during the heyday of the Cold War: North Korea with China (1961) and South Korea with the United States (1954). The peninsula is currently experiencing an unprecedented crisis of alliance maintenance, even survival. For better or worse, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), or North Korea, is the only country with which the People's Republic of China (PRC) "maintains"—whether in name or in practice—its 1961 Cold-War pact. Yet amidst Chinese worries that the U.S.-DPRK nuclear confrontation may spiral out of control, in March 2003 Beijing established a leading Group on the North Korean Crisis (LGNKC), headed by President Hu Jintao. The LGNKC's mission is to improve assessment of the intelligence "black hole" over Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities and intentions and to formulate a cost-effective conflict management strategy.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Beijing, North Korea, and Korea
5382. When Will Russia Really Enter Northeast Asia?
- Author:
- Gilbert Rozman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2003
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Russia needs to open the Russian Far East for regional integration and make use of its dynamism and vast natural resources. Initiatives of the past decade have demonstrated great sensitivity to the dangers of foreign presence, but little forward thinking on their positive contributions. Putin has advanced beyond Yeltsin, but there is still no vision of regionalism. A reorientation of Sino-Russian relations from strategic goals associated with multipolarity to economic cooperation in a multilateral context offers hope that a new approach is coming. Under the umbrella of globalization including closer relations with the U.S., Putin can more easily pursue regional integration as well. In 2002-03, the nuclear standoff between North Korea and the U.S. put regionalism on hold, while energy security achieved a new profile that gave Putin the opportunity to weigh offers from China, Japan, and the U.S., while asserting control over oligarch Mikhail Khodorovsky and his oil behemoth Yukos. Clearly, Putin planned to take firm charge of managing all dimensions of regionalism, but it was less clear if he would encourage market forces.
- Topic:
- Civil Society and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Japan, China, Asia, and North Korea
5383. Attracting Investment to China
- Publication Date:
- 09-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- Foreign investment has played an important role in China's economic development for almost a quarter of a century and is vital for that development to continue. But while China has been highly successful in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) so far, and has made significant progress in improving its FDI policy framework, it has not fully exploited its potential to attract investment from OECD countries. To make the most of the potential benefits of joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) and to increase FDI inflows while enhancing their contribution to domestic development China will need to persevere with efforts to bring its laws and regulations into harmony with internationally recognised standards and to ensure they are fully and consistently implemented at local level.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China
5384. Easternization Meets Westernization: Patriotic Youth Organizations in French Indochina during World War II
- Author:
- Anne Raffin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2002
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- French Politics, Culture Society
- Institution:
- Conference Group on French Politics Society
- Abstract:
- Although colonizers generally repressed emergent national movements as potential vehicles of national liberation, the French encouraged patriotic mobilizations in Indochina in the early 1940s as a way to counteract Thai irredentists, Vietnamese revolutionaries, and Japanese occupiers and their claims of "Asia for Asians." Here, colonial authorities sought to build allegiance to the empire by "patriotizing" youth attitudes through sports activities and youth corps. Participation in such youth organizations mushroomed in Indochina between 1940 and 1945, gaining over a million members in that short span.
- Topic:
- War
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, and Asia
5385. The Business of Congress After September 11: A Look Back and at What's Ahead for 2002
- Author:
- Sarah Binder and Bill Frenzel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The terrorist attacks on September 11, which caused plane crashes in New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington, D.C., resulted in thousands of deaths, billions of dollars in damage, and an American public that was stunned by the events it had watched unfold on television. In addition to the heavy emotional toll, federal, state, and local governments scrambled to address new policy problems, including massive clean-up efforts, compensation for victims, and homeland security.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, New York, America, Washington, and Pennsylvania
5386. Rebalancing United States-China Relations
- Author:
- Michael Swaine and Minxin Pei
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- President George W. Bush's visit to China, Japan, and South Korea in February 2002 highlights the vital importance of the Asia-Pacific region to the United States. His stop in China will be especially significant. He will arrive in Beijing on precisely the 30th anniversary of Richard Nixon's historic journey to China, and at a time of notable—if limited—improvement in relations between China and the United States after one of periodic harsh rhetoric and tense confrontation.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, and Asia
5387. One Third of the World's Growth and Inequality
- Author:
- Danny Quah
- Publication Date:
- 03-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper studies growth and inequality in China and India—two economies that account for a third of the world's population. By modelling growth and inequality as components in a joint stochastic process, the paper calibrates the impact each has on different welfare indicators and on the personal income distribution across the joint population of the two countries. For personal income inequalities in a China-India universe, the forces assuming first-order importance are macroeconomic: Growing average incomes dominate all else. The relation between aggregate economic growth and within-country in- equality is insignificant for inequality dynamics.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
5388. From the Grabbing Hand to the Helping Hand: A Rent Seeking Model of China's Township-Village Enterprises
- Author:
- Jiahua Che
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- I present a study of ownership of firms under government rent seeking. Using its control of regulated inputs, a government agency extracts rents from a manager who undertakes an investment. Such a government rent seeking activity leads to a typical hold-up problem. Government ownership is shown to serve as a second best commitment mechanism through which the government agency will restrain itself from the rent seeking activity and even offer the manager support and favor such as tax breaks and subsidies. This mechanism works at a cost as government ownership compromises ex post managerial incentives and creates distortion in resource allocation. Nevertheless, government ownership may Pareto dominate private ownership under certain conditions. These conditions correspond to a host of stylized empirical observations concerning local government-owned firms (township-village enterprises) during China's transition to a market economy.
- Topic:
- Development, Emerging Markets, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5389. Household Income Dynamics in Rural China
- Author:
- Martin Ravallion and Jyotsna Jalan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- It is well known in theory that certain forms of non-linear dynamics in household incomes can yield poverty traps and distribution-dependent growth. The potential implications for policy are dramatic: effective social protection from transient poverty will be an investment with lasting benefits, and pro-poor redistribution will promote aggregate economic growth. We test for non-linearity in the dynamics of household expenditures and incomes using panel data for rural south-west China. While we find evidence of non-linearity, there is no sign of a dynamic poverty trap. Existing private and social arrangements in this setting appear to protect vulnerable households from the risk of destitution. However, the concavity we find in the recursion diagram does imply that the speed of recovery from an income shock is lower for the poor, and that current inequality reduces growth in mean incomes.
- Topic:
- Development and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5390. Political Office, Kinship, and Household Wealth in Rural China
- Author:
- Andrew G. Walder and Litao Zhao
- Publication Date:
- 12-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- For more than two decades after the demise of Maoist collectivism, a resurgent market economy has deeply transformed the social structure of rural China. By the mid-1980s, peasant households had already returned to historical marketing patterns of agricultural produce and other sidelines and services. By the turn of the century, almost 140 million individuals, or 30 percent of the rural labor force, earned regular incomes from wage labor outside agriculture. Twenty million rural households had registered individual family enterprises, and two million of them had already grown into substantial private firms. A massive rural industrial sector grew up under public ownership in the 1980s, employing more than 80 million at its height. It was then extensively privatized in the 1990s, and is now less than half its former size. While these developments have been widely noted in studies of rural industrialization and income inequality, it is still far from clear how they have altered the structure and wealth of village political and economic elites.
- Topic:
- Communism, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5391. Inaugural Oksenberg Lecture: The United States and China: A President's Perspective. An address by Jimmy Carter
- Author:
- Jimmy Carter
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The Oksenberg Lectures honor the legacy of Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938–2001), Senior Fellow at the Asia/Pacific Research Center, professor of political science, and a foremost authority on China.
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
5392. Privatization and Elite Mobility: Rural China, 1979-1996
- Author:
- Andrew G. Walder
- Publication Date:
- 07-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- The ideal types that motivate research on transitional economies have led to a neglect of the varied mechanisms that generate social change. One example is the implicit treatment of privatization as a single process whose initial impact will become more pronounced through time. Privatization in fact occurs via distinct mechanisms that have different consequences across types of assets and through time, as shown in an analysis of career trajectories over two decades in rural China. During the first decade, when privatization proceeded via the rapid expansion of household enterprise, ordinary individuals with nonagricultural work experience were the most likely to become private entrepreneurs. Village officials, their relatives, and public enterprise managers did not enter the private sector at rates higher than others. However, during the second decade the privatization of public enterprises began to transfer collective assets to individual ownership. During this period, public enterprise managers and the relatives of cadres emerged as the most likely to become private entrepreneurs. Private entrepreneurs, however, have yet to move into cadre posts, and cadres have yet to move into private entrepreneurship, at rates higher than others. Administrative elites have therefore proven resilient in the face of private-sector expansion, and the benefits of privatization have gradually shifted in their favor.
- Topic:
- Communism and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5393. Challenges of Peri-urbanization in the Lower Yangtze region: The Case of the Hanzhou-Ningbo Corridor
- Author:
- Douglas Webster
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- This discussion paper is based on analysis of peri-urbanization dynamics in the Hangzhou- Ningbo Corridor of the Lower Yangtze Region of China. The case-study area is of particular interest, both because of the scale of the phenomenon in the area and the fact that the corridor typifies the long-running and dynamic peri-urbanization process occurring in the Lower Yangtze Region as a whole, arguably the world's largest extended urban region (EUR). Analysis focuses on adaptation, successful and otherwise, to the severe stresses, demographic, social, and environmental, accompanying peri-urbanization. Policy implications are then drawn; anticipated future stresses in the case-study area, and by implication the larger extended urban region, are used to trigger recommendations.
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- China
5394. The United States and Russia in Central Asia: Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran
- Author:
- Fiona Hill
- Publication Date:
- 08-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Before 1991, the states of Central Asia were marginal backwaters, republics of the Soviet Union that played no major role in the Cold War relationship between the USSR and the United States, or in the Soviet Union's relationship with the principal regional powers of Turkey, Iran, and China. But, in the 1990s, the dissolution of the Soviet Union coincided with the re-discovery of the energy resources of the Caspian Sea, attracting a range of international oil companies including American majors to the region. Eventually, the Caspian Basin became a point of tension in U.S.-Russian relations. In addition, Central Asia emerged as a zone of conflict. Violent clashes erupted between ethnic groups in the region's Ferghana Valley. Civil war in Tajikistan, in 1992-1997, became entangled with war in Afghanistan. Faltering political and economic reforms, and mounting social problems provided a fertile ground for the germination of radical groups, the infiltration of foreign Islamic networks, and the spawning of militant organizations like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). The IMU first sought to overthrow the government of President Islam Karimov in Uzbekistan, later espoused greater ambitions for the creation of an Islamic caliphate (state) across Central Asia, and eventually joined forces with the Taliban in Afghanistan. With the events of September 11, 2001 and their roots in the terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan, Central Asia came to the forefront of U.S. attention.
- Topic:
- Cold War and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Asia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Taliban, and Soviet Union
5395. Central Asia: Border Disputes and Conflict Potential
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For the past decade Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have all been involved in high stakes negotiations to define their respective borders. Strong-arm politics, economic pressures, shadowy backroom deals, nationalist sentiments, public dissatisfaction and an environment of mutual mistrust have marked this process. The resolution of border issues peacefully and transparently would have a positive impact on regional security, economic cooperation, ethnic relations and efforts to combat drug trafficking and religious extremism. But progress has been slow, and no immediate breakthrough can be seen in an all too often antagonistic process that is defining the new map of Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
5396. Staying the Course: Limitations in U.S. -China Relations
- Author:
- Gen. Jack N. Merritt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2002
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The People's Republic of China (PRC). As of mid-2002, the PRC's policy is to emphasize the positive, stressing its desire for an improved – and hopefully more stable – relationship with the United States. This policy reflects China's recognition of the need for stability at a time of many challenges. In the next few years, the PRC leadership will be seeking to extend economic reform and build prosperity beyond the limited areas in big cities and the eastern provinces that have made great strides in recent years. China will need to adjust the economy to the market-opening demands that World Trade Organization (WTO) membership will bring and it will face the problem of moving successfully over the next decade through a transition in leadership without compromising the continued power of the Party leadership group.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
5397. People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF): Shifting Airpower Balance and Challenges to India's Security
- Author:
- Ramesh V. Phadke
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
- Abstract:
- China is India's largest and most important neighbor, and despite recent efforts at improving relations between the two countries, the over half-century-old border dispute remains unresolved. China is an expansionist power trying to enhance the security of its peripheral areas. It is important to note that in the recent past, China has resolved its border disputes with almost all its neighbors except India. Relations between the two countries have no doubt improved since 1988, when then-Indian prime minister, the late Rajiv Gandhi, visited Beijing, and since the conclusion of 1993 and 1996 agreements on maintenance of peace and tranquility on the borders, but the progress so far has been slow. China continues to claim some 90,000 square kilometers of Indian territory in the northeast while it illegally occupies some 23,000 square kilometers of Aksai Chin in the north of India.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, and India
5398. The Global Nuclear Balance: A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Russia retains a significant strategic nuclear force capability, despite the decline in overall force size since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and despite apparent defense budgetary shortfalls and system aging. Russia also inherited sizeable biological and chemical warfare establishments from the FSU, and some components of these programs remain largely intact. Russian entities have exported various nuclear and ballistic missile technologies to states of proliferation concern, and Russia also remains a source for offensive biological and chemical warfare technologies and expertise.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia
5399. The Asian Balance of Weapons of Mass Destruction A Quantitative and Arms Control Analysis
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- Beijing continues to emerge as an increasingly active player in the region. Therefore, it is focused on becoming a world - class industrialized power through a countrywide modernization effort, which includes economic, technological, and military components of national power. Beijing already wields significant international influence by virtue of its permanent membership on the United Nations (UN) Security Council and its economic influence. China's public support for nonproliferation regimes is motivated by several factors, including a desire to enhance its image as a responsible world power and support for nonproliferation objectives.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, South Asia, Beijing, and Asia
5400. US and Russian Nuclear Forces and Arms Control After the US Nuclear Posture Review
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- The reporting of START accountable warheads has led to serious confusion between START accountable warheads and actual warheads.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, and Asia