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5202. Global Economic Prospects: Slower But Still Solid Growth in 2005; Worries About Growth and Inflation for 2006
- Author:
- Michael Mussa
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- After surging to the highest growth rate in a generation, world real GDP is set to slow from a rate of just over 5 percent for 2004 to about 4 percent for 2005 and a tad slower for 2006. The economic slowdowns in several important economies in the second half of last year, including much of continental Europe and Japan, already make it clear that year-over-year growth will slow for 2005. But the continued strong growth of domestic demand in other countries, most notably the United States and China, virtually assures that global growth this year will not fall below potential.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, and East Asia
5203. China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- According to a popular argument put forward by three Deutsche Bank economists (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber, here after DFG), one needn't worry about the sustainability of either the large US current account deficit or the undervalued exchange rates of a group of Asian economies (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber 2003, 2004a, 2004b, 2004c; Folkerts-Landau 2004). In their view, the United States and the Asian economies have entered into an implicit contract—the so-called revived Bretton Woods system (hereafter BW2)—that can comfortably carry on for another decade or two, with significant net benefits to both parties.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
5204. China and the World Economy Workshop. Conference Summary
- Author:
- Robert Kapp
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Peter Bottelier, the principal presenter of this topic, opened by noting that much discussion now surrounds the evolving “new line” embodied in China's economic plans for the next five years. The three agricultural questions, self-innovation, regional adjustment, opening up of a win-win “harmonious society,” and economizing on energy use: what do these and other much-discussed new terms really mean?
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5205. China as Producer: Chinese Industry After 25 Years of Reform
- Author:
- Thomas Rawski
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Beginning with the start of reform in the late 1970s, China's industry has recorded impressive growth of output, labor productivity, and exports as well as dramatic upgrading of the quality and variety of output. These gains have occurred in spite of difficulties arising from lethargic state enterprises, inadequate corporate governance, excessive official intervention, corruption, and weak financial institutions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5206. China as Consumer
- Author:
- Kenneth Lieberthal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This article seeks to examine two key issues that will be major drivers of consumption in China over the coming five years: urbanization and environmental amelioration. Whether the issues identified will be the largest factors over this time frame remains unclear, but each of these two areas warrants considerable attention as a very significant contributor to the future of consumer demand in China.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5207. China as Employer and Consumer: Economic Outlook for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)
- Author:
- Arthur R. Kroeber
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China's impressive economic growth of the past quarter century (9.4 percent average annual real GDP growth between 1980 and 2004, by official figures) is not miraculous; on the contrary, it can largely be explained by conventional models of economic development.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5208. Hu Jintao's Outbox
- Author:
- Joseph Fewsmith
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China has now sustained two and a half decades of high-speed growth. This growth has been even faster with regard to exports and China's role in international trade. Domestically, a capitalist tendency seems to be everywhere, while internationally the rise of China, whether peaceful or not, seems – at least to some – to threaten Western jobs, prosperity, and the international order. The focus of this paper, however, is not this question of whether or how China poses a threat to the West but rather an old (but new) question of how this “capitalist” conversion is compatible with the continued rule of a communist party. This is a question of considerable practical import, as people contemplate what the continued growth of the Chinese economy might mean for the political stability of that country, but it is also a question of considerable theoretical import: Leninist parties that sought to “include” external interests, it was argued, are on the way to collapse. It is only a matter of time. The time frame for China has lasted longer than theoreticians had supposed, though they might yet prove to be right – perhaps the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has lasted longer than people imagined but it might still be on the road to collapse. This point of view would find supporters, both in the West and in China, but even if they prove right, it is important to inquire more deeply about what is going on in China, whether institutions are being created, and if so whether they might provide a foundation for a post-communist China or whether they suggest a more chaotic future.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5209. The European Union Defence Industry and the Appeal of the Chinese Market
- Author:
- Eugene Kogan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Austrian National Defence Academy
- Abstract:
- This report deals exclusively with the European Union and the People's Republic of China (PRC, also known as China) and not with a broader range of issues, such as, for instance, the impact of an embargo lift on the Asia-Pacific balance of power or on the Trans-Atlantic relations. The concerns of countries, such as Australia, Japan, South Korea and, undoubtedly, Taiwan are a very important issue. However, this report sets out to deal exclusively with the EU-China issue. Nevertheless, one can say that, for instance, the delivery of the airborne early-warning and control system (AWACS) to China would considerably change the balance of power in the Asia- Pacific region and exacerbate already strained Trans-Atlantic relations. The US will face the serious dilemma of how to deal with the EU over such deliveries to China, since the EU is their partner and not a subordinate as Israel is, for instance.
- Topic:
- Security and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Australia
5210. BRICSAM and the Non-WTO
- Author:
- Agata Antkiewicz and John Whalley
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- We discuss recent regional trade and economic partnership agreements involving the large population, rapidly growing economies (BRICSAM: Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa, ASEAN, and Mexico). Perhaps 50 out of 300 agreements that exist worldwide involve BRICSAM countries; most are recently concluded and will be implemented over the next few years. Along with extensive bilateral investment treaties, mutual recognition agreements, and other country to country (or region) arrangements they are part of what we term the non-WTO. This paper aims to document and characterize the agreements and analyze their possible impacts. Agreements differ in specificity, coverage and content. In some treaties there are detailed and specific commitments, but these also co-exist with seemingly vague commitments and (at times) opaque dispute settlement and enforcement mechanisms. Whether these represent a partial replacement of the World Trade Organization (WTO) process for newly negotiated reciprocity based on global trade liberalization or largely represent diplomatic protocol alongside significant WTO disciplines is the subject of this paper.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, Asia, South Africa, Brazil, and Mexico
5211. China in the World Trading System
- Author:
- John Whalley
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
- Abstract:
- This paper discusses China's trade policy stance following World Trade Organization (WTO) accession in 2002. Three broad issues are considered. The first is the extent to which WTO accession helps China in dealing with various key trade issues, including anti-dumping and the textiles and apparel trade. The second is China's participation in regional trade agreements post WTO accession. The third is the implementability of China's accession commitments in key service areas (banking, insurance, telecoms). The issues now for China are less the merits of WTO accession, and rather its trade policy decisions given WTO membership.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5212. Rising Spatial Disparities and Development
- Author:
- Ravi Kanbur and Anthony J. Venables
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Amidst a growing concern about increasing inequality, the spatial dimensions of inequality have begun to attract considerable policy interest. In China, Russia, India, Mexico, and South Africa, as well as most other developing and transition economies, there is a sense that spatial and regional disparities in economic activity, incomes and social indicators, are on the increase. Spatial inequality is a dimension of overall inequality, but it has added significance when spatial and regional divisions align with political and ethnic tensions to undermine social and political stability. Also important in the policy debate is a perceived sense that increasing internal spatial inequality is related to greater openness of economies, and to globalization in general.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Demographics, and Development
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, India, South Africa, and Mexico
5213. China's Political Commissars and Commanders: Trends Dynamics
- Author:
- Srikanth Kondapalli
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Political Commissars and Commanders in the Chinese military played a significant role for more than seven decades. Several commonalities, differences and relative influences of these two in the military hierarchy existed, though both were tasked to pursue political and strategic goals set by thee Communist Party in the internal matters or external dimensions of China. Even as the Commanders' role remained vital in the current phase of military modernisation, professionalism and power projection, the role of the Political Commissars is expected to be enhanced with the launching of "three wars"- media, legal and psychological warfare - from 2003.
- Topic:
- Security and Politics
- Political Geography:
- China
5214. Maritime Disputes In The South China Sea: Strategic And Diplomatic Status Quo
- Author:
- Ralf Emmers
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Working Paper argues that the maritime disputes over the South China Sea are characterised by a strategic and diplomatic status quo. China does so far not have the necessary power projection to impose naval hegemony in the South China Sea. None of the ASEAN claimants can rely on sufficient naval power or an external military alliance to impose their claims in the Spratly Islands. A similar situation of status quo exists on the diplomatic front. China and the ASEAN countries have been negotiating for years to conclude a code of conduct for the South China Sea. The 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea is based on a multilateral dimension as well as on a convergence of views on the need to peacefully manage the dispute. While a step in the right direction, the declaration is only an interim political agreement and it is still to be seen whether the parties will sign a detailed and binding code of conduct for the South China Sea. The Working Paper starts by reviewing the nature of the maritime disputes. It then describes the security environment in the South China Sea by examining the changing strategic conditions of the disputes. Its final section discusses the long diplomatic road toward the 2002 Declaration. The Working Paper concludes that the South China Sea has remained primarily a political rather than a military issue thanks to China's desire to accomodate the Southeast Asian countries and the limited naval capabilities available to the different claimants.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- China
5215. Great Powers and Southeast Asian Regional Security Strategies: Omni-Enmeshment, Balancing and Hierarchical Order
- Author:
- Evelyn Goh
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The small and medium-sized states in Southeast Asia have undergone significant geostrategic changes with the end of the Cold War and the rise of China. There has been a lively debate over the last decade about whether these countries would balance against or bandwagon with China, and how their relations with the other major powers in the region would change. Recent works that argue against the simple dichotomy of balancing versus bandwangoning are correct in asserting that Southeast Asian countries do not want to choose between the two major powers, the U.S. and China. But this paper goes further to present the results of an empirical study that fleshes out the conceptual thinking that underlies this avoidance strategy. It finds that instead of merely adopting tactical or time-buying policies, key Southeast Asian states have actively tried to influence the shaping of the new regional order. It argues that key Southeast Asian states in fact have (a) distinct coneptualisations of two main pathways to order in the region–omni-enmeshment of major powers and complex balance of influence; and (b) a concrete vision of the preferred power distribution outcome, which is a hierarchical regional order.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China and Southeast Asia
5216. Civil-Military Relationship And Reform In The Defence Industry
- Author:
- Arthur S. Ding
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Three factors have contributed to China's defence industry reform. They are Deng Xiaoping's resolute will to push defense industry reform, overall reform toward marker economy system and the military's consciousness for the need of the defense industry reform. As time has gone by, direction for China's defense industry reform was gradually defines, and that created an environment conducive for innovation and to adapt to the changing economic environment. Many measures have been adopted, and the core idea being a gradual increase in competition in the economic sector. The implication for the civil-military relationship is that there might exist a consensus in both civilian and military sectors with regard to defense industry reform.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Civil Society, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China
5217. The Security Of Regional Sea Lanes
- Author:
- Joshua Ho
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The emergence of China and India as major global players will not only transform the regional geopolitical landscape but will also mean an increased dependence on the sea as an avenue for trade and transportation of energy and raw materials. Within the region, the Malacca Straits, Sunda Straits, and the Lombok Straits are the main sea lanes through which trade, energy, and raw material resources flow. Indeed, the strategic importance of the regional lanes was recognised by the late Michael Leifer but the threats indetified at that time were primarily those that concerned the safety of navigation, the control of the freedom of passage by the coastal state as well as the interruption of passage in the sea lanes by an external naval power like the Soviet Union. The threats that Michael Leifer had identified has faded into insignificance and new threats to safety of shipping have arisen in their place, and these include piracy and the spectre of maritime terrorism.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Asia
5218. Can China Afford to Continue Its One-Child Policy?
- Author:
- Wang Feng
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Twenty-five years after it was launched, China's “One Child” population control policy is credited with cutting population growth to an all time low and contributing to two decades of spectacular economic development. But the costs associated with the policy are also apparent and are rising: a growing proportion of elderly with inadequate government or family support, a disproportionately high number of male births attributable to sex selective abortion, increased female infant and child mortality rates, and the collapse of a credible government birth reporting system. Today, as China contemplates the future of the policy, many argue that a change that allows couples to have two children will not lead to uncontrollable population growth. Instead, it could help meet the fertility desires of most Chinese couples; avoid a worsening of the demographic and social consequences already evident; and relieve the Chinese government of the immense financial and political costs of enforcing an unpopular policy. But changes will need to come soon if China is to avert even greater negative consequences of the policy.
- Topic:
- Civil Society and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5219. President Attempts to Show that Asia Matters to the United States
- Author:
- John Gershman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- President Bush is in Asia this week for a series of meetings, including bilateral meetings in Japan, South Korea, China, and Mongolia and attending the economic leaders meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum. This trip comes on the heels of a disastrous trip by President Bush to Latin America, but there is little sign this trip will do much to rescue the President's sinking foreign policy reputation.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, and South Korea
5220. Uses of Ambiguity in North Korea Agreement
- Author:
- John Feffer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- On September 19, North Korea agreed to give up its nuclear program. As part of the same agreement, which followed the latest round of the Six Party Talks, the United States pledged not to attack or invade North Korea, to coexist peacefully with the country, and to work toward normalized relations. The United States and other parties to the agreement — China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea — offered to put together an energy package for North Korea.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
5221. The United States, China, and India: A Story of Leaders, Partners, and Clients
- Author:
- Zia Mian
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- The past few months have seen important developments in relations between the United States and India. Much of the commentary has focused resolutely and rightly on the wisdom and possible consequences of the new agreements on military and nuclear policy and programs. But these recent agreements need also to be seen in the light of the more than 50 years of U.S. efforts to have India become a part of American political, strategic, and economic plans for Asia. What becomes clear is how difficult this proved to be over the years. It begs the question why Indian leaders have finally started to fall in step so easily in the past few years.
- Topic:
- Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, India, and Asia
5222. U.S.-China Relations — Opportunities, Risks, and the Taiwan Issue
- Author:
- Thomas J. Bickford
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- China is primarily interested in concentrating on trade and economic development and therefore wants an international environment conducive to continued economic growth. Even with recent defense budget increases, China's ability to project power beyond its borders will be extremely limited for a long time to come. There is a real risk of conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, and U.S. policy needs to be aimed at avoiding such a conflict.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Taiwan
5223. Security Council Reform Debate Highlights Challenges Facing UN
- Author:
- Ian Williams
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- Within a day of arriving at the United Nations John Bolton, the former lobbyist for Taiwan and advocate for one permanent seat on the Security Council, the United States, had cut a deal with the Chinese representative. China wants to stop an additional permanent Security Council seat for Japan. The United States had promised Japan its support in return for its loyalty over Iraq, but hated Germany more than it loves Japan. So the two agreed to thwart the attempt by the G-4 (Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan), to secure permanent seats during the current reform proposals.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, India, Taiwan, Asia, Brazil, and Germany
5224. The Dragon the Chrysanthemum
- Author:
- Conn Hallinan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy In Focus
- Abstract:
- At first glance, the growing tension between China and Japan seems almost inexplicable. Massive anti-Japanese demonstrations in China over events that took place more than half a century ago? A heated exchange filled with mutual threats over an offshore petroleum field that western oil companies think is not worth exploiting? Has a Shinto shrine and slanted textbooks really driven the two great Asian powers to the edge of a Cold War or worse?
- Topic:
- International Relations and War
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Israel, and Asia
5225. Class Formation or Fragmentation? Allegiances and Divisions Among Managers and Workers in State-Owned Enterprises
- Author:
- Kun-Chin Lin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This essay argues that crosscutting allegiances between managers and workers, and between existing workers and ex-workers, have formed strong social and psychological bases for sustained collective action and inaction during a period of organizational transformation in contemporary China. This thesis challenges the conventional wisdom that implies either class formation during marketization or the failure of such as an explanation for the alleged limits of the working class in mobilizing to defend its social contract against the central state. Through in-depth case studies of Chinese oilfields and refineries, I identify patterns of fragmentation deriving from intergenerational differences among the workers, managerial incentive structures, and the continuing reworking of patron-client relations between subgroups of workers and managers. I conclude that managers' and workers' passive and active responses to the state's rapid dismantling of the socialist notion of “class” in a self-sufficient work unit have placed a tangible social limit on authoritarian institutional innovation.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China
5226. Engaging Putin's Russia: Challenges and Opportunities for the West
- Author:
- Jason R. Wisniewski
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- The small and medium-sized states in Southeast Asia have undergone significant geostrategic changes with the end of the Cold War and the rise of China. There has been a lively debate over the last decade about whether these countries would balance against or bandwagon with China, and how their relations with the other major powers in the region would change. Recent works that argue against the simple dichotomy of balancing versus bandwangoning are correct in asserting that Southeast Asian countries do not want to choose between the two major powers, the U.S. and China. But this paper goes further to present the results of an empirical study that fleshes out the conceptual thinking that underlies this avoidance strategy. It finds that instead of merely adopting tactical or time-buying policies, key Southeast Asian states have actively tried to influence the shaping of the new regional order. It argues that key Southeast Asian states in fact have (a) distinct coneptualisations of two main pathways to order in the region omni-enmeshment of major powers and complex balance of influence; and (b) a concrete vision of the preferred power distribution outcome, which is a hierarchical regional order.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Government
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, and Southeast Asia
5227. Leaders and Laggards: When and Why do Countries Sign the NPT?
- Author:
- Christopher Way and Karthika Sasikumar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) was concluded at the end of the 1960s, a decade which saw the drama of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the height of the nuclear arms race between the superpowers, and the entry of France and China into the club of countries that had tested nuclear weapons. The basic bargain underlying the NPT allows countries to surrender their right to develop nuclear weapons in return for access to international assistance in civilian nuclear technology. Five countries (the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, France, and China) that had tested nuclear devices before 1 January 1967, were conferred the status of Nuclear Weapon State (NWS) by Article IX. All other signatories (Non Nuclear Weapon States or NNWSs) pledged to abjure the development and diffusion of nuclear weapons technology.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Globalization, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, United Kingdom, France, Soviet Union, and Cuba
5228. Adjusting Chinese Bilateral Trade Data: How Big is China's Trade Surplus
- Author:
- John W. Schindler and Dustin H. Beckett
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Hong Kong plays a prominent role as a re-exporter of a large percentage of trade bound for or coming from China. Current reporting practices in China and its trading partners do not fully reflect this role and therefore provide a misleading picture of the origin or ultimate destination of Chinese exports and imports. We adjust bilateral trade data for both China and its trading partners to correct for this problem. We also correct for differences due to markups in Hong Kong and different standards for reporting trade (c.i.f. versus f.o.b.). For 2003, we estimate that China's overall trade surplus was between $53 billion and $126 billion, larger than that reported in official Chinese data, but smaller than that reported by China's trading partners. We also provide evidence that, in general, the actual origin of a good that is transshipped through Hong Kong is correctly reported by the importing country, but the final destination of such goods is not correctly reported by the exporting country.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Hong Kong
5229. Exchange Rate Pass-through to U.S. Import Prices: Some New Evidence
- Author:
- Jaime Marquez, Mario Marazzi, Nathan Sheets, Joseph Gagnon, Robert J. Vigfusson, Jon Faust, Robert F. Martin, Trevor Reeve, and John Rogers
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper documents a sustained decline in exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices, from above 0.5 during the 1980s to somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.2 during the last decade. This decline in the pass-through coefficient is robust to the measure of foreign prices that is included in the regression (i.e., CPI versus PPI), whether the estimation is done in levels or differences, and whether U.S. prices are included as an explanatory variable. Notably, the largest estimates of pass-through are obtained when commodity prices are excluded from the regression. In this case, the pass-through coefficient captures both the direct effect of the exchange rate on import prices and an indirect effect operating through changes in commodity prices. Our work indicates that an increasing share of exchange rate pass-through has occurred through this commodity-price channel in recent years. While the source of the decline in passthrough is difficult to pin down with certainty, our work points to several factors, including the reduced share of (commodity-intensive) industrial supplies in U.S. imports and the increased presence of Chinese exporters in U.S. markets. We detect a particular step down in the passthrough coefficient around the time of the Asian financial crisis and document a shift in the export pricing behavior of emerging Asian firms around that time.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
5230. China Brief, The Dragon's Thirst for Canadian Oil
- Author:
- Wenran Jiang, Willy Lam, David G. Wiencek, and Drew Thompson
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- April marked a small leap forward in China's energy relations with Canada. China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) put down $150 million for a one-sixth stake in MEG Energy Corp., an upstart oil sands company. This is China's first major investment in Canada's vast oil sands industry. Two days later, Petro China International Co. Ltd. signed a memorandum of understanding with Canada's giant pipeline company Enbridge Inc., promising cooperation in the $2.5 billion Gateway pipeline from Alberta to the West Coast that may supply China with 200,000 barrels of crude a day once completed. China's large energy corporations are predicting more such deals but at a “much bigger” scale.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Canada, and Israel
5231. China Brief,Beijing's Growing Politico-Economic Leverage over Ulaanbaatar
- Author:
- Morris Rossabi, Sergei Blagov, Migeddorj Batchimeg, Alicia Campi, and Wang Wei-Fang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Just before the 2005 Tsagaan Sar (or New Year's) celebrations, a Mongolian government official urged his fellow citizens not to buy Chinese gifts for relatives and friends because if they did he estimated that $30 million would enter China's coffer.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Eurasia, and Israel
5232. China Brief, Anti-Japanese Protests Pose Long-Term Challenges for Beijing
- Author:
- You Ji, Willy Lam, Tarique Niazi, and John C.k. Daly
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- It is not surprising that President Hu Jintao and his colleagues decided in mid-April to cool down anti-Japanese protests: a body blow has been dealt to China's reputation as a responsible member of the global community. The fact that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) administration was close to losing control over xenophobic crowds has again alerted Beijing to the reality that nationalism is a double-edged sword. There are also signs that CCP factions not allied with Hu and his sidekick, Premier Wen Jiabao, have used the worsening crisis with Japan to fault the way that the Hu-Wen team has conducted its foreign policy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5233. China Brief, Beijing's Alarm Over New “US Encirclement Conspiracy”
- Author:
- Mohan Malik, Frank Ching, Willy Lam, and William R. Hawkins
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- One of Beijing's worst nightmares seems to be coming true. Having apparently steadied the course in the Middle East, the Bush administration is turning to Asia to tame its long-standing “strategic competitor.” While this particular term has been shelved since 9/11 – and Sino-U.S. relations have improved thanks to China's cooperation with Washington's global anti-terrorist campaign – there are signs at least from Beijing's perspective that Washington is spearheading multi-pronged tactics to contain the fast-rising Asian giant.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Asia
5234. China Brief, Volume 5, Issue 7 (March 29, 2005)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- Next month is the 50th anniversary of the Bandung Conference, where Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai and Indonesian President Sukarno set out to carve a space for Asian and African countries based on principles of mutual interest, respect for national sovereignty and non-alignment with either the United States or the Soviet Union. In 1955, an economically and politically isolated China aspired to economic self-sufficiency through a closed, planned economy that was not dependent on imported food or other raw materials.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and East Asia
5235. China Brief,Factional Politics and Beijing's Tightening Grip on Hong Kong
- Author:
- Frank Ching, Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, and Richard A. Bitzinger
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The saga of Hong Kong Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's fall from grace has highlighted Beijing's tightening grip over the Special Administrative Region (SAR), as well as the dicey future of the “one country, two systems” model. While Tung indicated last Thursday that he had submitted his resignation to Beijing earlier that day because of failing health, news about his impending departure had already been splashed across the Hong Kong papers on March 2
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5236. China Brief,U.S.-Japan Security Declaration Causes China to Reconsider Stance on North Korea
- Author:
- Willy Lam, Arnold Zeitlin, Mikyoung Kim, and Ahmad Lutfi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The likelihood of Beijing putting more pressure on Pyongyang regarding the nuclear issue has decreased given Hu Jintao's perception that a plethora of “anti-China” actions have been emanating from the Bush administration. This has increased the possibility of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) flaunting the North Korean card against America's so-called containment policy against China – as well as Washington's harder line on Iran
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5237. China Brief, Editor's Note on Chinese Sea Power Special Issue
- Author:
- You Ji, Bernard D. Cole, Tarique Niazi, and Tai Ming Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- As a maritime power, China's naval developments remain an issue of intense interest for Western policymakers as its meteoric economic development paves the way for China's transformation as a major global power. In light of Beijing's quest to secure energy resources, its extensive maritime seaboard, and unresolved territorial disputes, Chinese naval interests deserve continued attention. Undoubtedly, the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN) ability to adequately defend China's sea lines of communication (SLOCs) will be critical to protecting its overseas interests. Jamestown is proud to present this special issue of China Brief on Chinese naval developments and maritime strategy.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5238. China Brief, Thailand's Security and the Sino-Thai Relationship
- Author:
- Wenran Jiang, Willy Lam, William R. Hawkins, and Anthony Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- If one theme characterizes Thailand's foreign policy, it is the ability to take advantage of the rivalries of larger powers. Skillfully avoiding occupation during various colonial enterprises, Thai foreign policy has cleverly sensed the prevailing winds and adapted accordingly. Thailand's close relationship with China – arguably one of the closest in Southeast Asia – sits alongside an alliance relationship with the United States. But the re-emergence of substantial independence sentiment in Thailand's southern provinces has now put Thai diplomacy to the test. Although there is no direct link, in a sense Thailand's separatist problem parallels China's own difficulties in Xinjiang. Thailand's latest challenge, this time domestic, finds that country sharing something of a similar strategic outlook to China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5239. China Brief, Taiwan's Election Results: Good News, Bad News, Or No News?
- Author:
- Eric Hagt, Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Gill Bates, Daniel C. Lynch, and Chen Yali
- Publication Date:
- 01-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Jamestown Foundation
- Abstract:
- The good news about the Taiwan Legislative Yuan elections last month, from the perspective of Beijing, Washington, and at least half of the Taiwan electorate, is that nothing will happen. Chen Shui-bian and his pan-green coalition remained a legislative minority, meaning a radical push ahead for more sovereignty – and the instabilities that might bring for cross-Strait relations – does not appear in the cards for now.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
5240. China and the Six-Party Talks: The New Turn to Mediation Diplomacy
- Author:
- Samuel S. Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- During more than a half century of its checkered international life, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has not been known for self-initiated mediation diplomacy in the world's trouble spots. Thus, China's uncharacteristically proactive mediation efforts in the second US-DPRK nuclear standoff, both reflects and affects significant changes in its foreign-policy thinking and behavior. Beijing's seemingly abrupt policy shift provides a timely case study for examining its changing role in the shaping of a new international order in East Asia in general and on the Korean peninsula in particular.
- Political Geography:
- China and Beijing
5241. Raising the Salience of Mexico and Canada
- Author:
- Chappell Lawson
- Publication Date:
- 04-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Canada and Mexico rarely figure high on the list of American priorities. Policymakers focus on conflicts in the Middle East; specialists in international relations discuss China's growing influence; and newspapers cover the international crisis du jour. It is easy to forget about two countries that appear to pose no direct or immediate threat to U.S. interests.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China, America, Middle East, Canada, North America, and Mexico
5242. Agricultural Policy Reform in China
- Publication Date:
- 11-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- China is the world's sixth largest economy and its most populous country, home to 1.3 billion people or 21% of the Earth's total population. But it faces a major challenge in providing its people with food – China has only 10% of the world's arable land and only one quarter of the average world water resources per person.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Civil Society, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5243. Agricultural Policy Reform in Brazil
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- Brazil is a major player in the global economy, one of the world's 10 largest economies, with a population of 180 million and vast natural resources. Brazil's agricultural land is exceeded only by China, Australia and the United States, and agriculture plays an important role in the country's economy. Primary agriculture accounts for 8% of GDP, while agricultural products account for about 30% of exports.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Agriculture, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Brazil, South America, and Australia
5244. China's Governance in Transition
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- China's economic reforms over the past two decades have brought remarkable growth, the development of a vibrant private sector and significant reform of the state-owned sector. Private businesses now represent some 57% of GDP, and productivity in the state-owned sector has improved significantly. However, a number of problems threaten to undermine prospects for sustainable growth. These notably include social tensions, partly due to increasing inequality within society and massive migration to the cities, but also linked to corruption, insufficient public services and rising unemployment as millions of workers have been laid off in the reform of the state-owned sector, while agriculture still displays huge structural under-employment.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5245. Economic Survey of China, 2005
- Publication Date:
- 09-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
- Abstract:
- China's economic growth has averaged 9½% per cent over the past two decades. The rapid pace of economic change is likely to be sustained for some time. These gains have contributed not only to higher personal incomes, but also to a significant reduction in poverty. At the same time, the economy has become substantially integrated with the world economy. A large part of these gains have come through profound shifts in government policies. Reforms have allowed market prices and private investors to play a significant role in production and trade.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
5246. Can America Rebuild the Crumbling State of U.S.-Asia Relations?
- Author:
- Kishore Mahbubani
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Ambassador Mahbubani's address looked at previous American actions that built "reservoirs of good will" that ultimately assisted America in its ideological victory in the Cold War, especially in Asia: its sharing of the "American dream" with the world; its openness to foreign students; the international order built by the United States after 1945; and, finally, the stabilizing effects of its military presence in East Asia. However, the end of the Cold War has brought changes, and the gulf between America's self-perception and the way it is seen in the Islamic world, and China in particular, demonstrate the dwindling of those good will reservoirs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and East Asia
5247. Dangerous Strait: The U.S.-Taiwan-China Crisis
- Author:
- Nancy Bernkopf Tucker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2005
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Columbia University Press
- Abstract:
- Dangerous Strait provides fresh perspectives on the complex political, economic, and strategic issues of the Taiwan Strait. Essays examine a variety of topics, which include the movement for independence and its place in Taiwanese domestic politics, the underlying weaknesses of democracy in Taiwan, and the significance of China and Taiwan's economic interdependence. In the area of security, contributors provide incisive critiques of Taiwan's incomplete military modernization, the strains in U.S.-Taiwan relations and their differing interpretations of China's intentions, and the misguided inclination to abandon Washington's traditional policy of strategic ambiguity.
- Topic:
- International Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia-Pacific
- Publication Identifier:
- 9780231509633
- Publication Identifier Type:
- ISBN
5248. If Not Balancing, What? Forms of Resistance to American Hegemony
- Author:
- Jeremy Pressman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2004
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- While traditional understandings of international affairs would predict the formation of a balancing coalition against the dominant U.S. position in world affairs, some analysts now contend that the U.S. advantage is so comprehensive and so unprecedented that we have not seen and will not see balancing behavior on the part of second tier powers like China, Russia, Japan, and Germany. It would be a mistake, however, to assume that the absence of balancing means the United States will not face any meaningful opposition in the international arena. Though in the short term a bloc of states is unlikely to form a counter-coalition. the historical form of resistance to dominant powers other states still find important ways to resist U.S. dominance.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Defense Policy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Japan, China, and Germany
5249. Global Economic Governance at a Crossroads: Replacing the G-7 with the G-20
- Author:
- Johannes F. Linn and Colin I. Jr. Bradford
- Publication Date:
- 04-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Finance ministers representing the Group of 7 (G-7) industrialized countries met in Boca Raton, Florida, in early February amid concerns about the weakening of the U.S. dollar. One factor in the dollar's decline is the U.S. trade deficit, which is partly due to the undervalued Chinese yuan. The involvement of China, which is not a G-7 member, illustrates both the glaring gap in global governance and the increasing economic and policy interdependence between industrial countries and major emerging market economies (EMEs). As one observer, referring to the Boca Raton meeting, put it, "China is the 800-pound gorilla and it isn't even part of the negotiations."
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
5250. Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The Successes and Failures of Taiwan's Defense Reform and Modernization Program
- Author:
- Micheal D. Swaine
- Publication Date:
- 07-2004
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- THE TAIWAN STRAIT IS ONE OF THE TWO PLACES in the Asian Pacific where a major war could break out; the other place is the Korean Peninsula. For over fifty years, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan) have maintained an uneasy peace across the Strait, punctuated by brief periods of limited conflict or by occasional military displays. The PRC insists that Taiwan is a part of China and asserts that the island must one day be reunited with the mainland. Until the early 1990s, the ROC government also viewed Taiwan as an integral part of China and insisted on eventual reunification, albeit under the Chinese Nationalist flag. But in recent years, with democratization opening the system to native Taiwanese, public support for independence has grown, as has the alarm in Beijing. As tensions have grown and the prospect of the resumption of a cross-Strait understanding regarding Taiwan's status has become more remote, stability has depended primarily on military deterrence. For China, such deterrence aims to prevent the final consolidation of Taiwan's separate status. For Taiwan (and the United States), it aims at preventing China from using force to compel reunification on Beijing's terms.
- Topic:
- Security and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia