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5101. Global Economic Governance at a Crossroads: Replacing the G-7 with the G-20

Author:
Johannes F. Linn and Colin I. Jr. Bradford
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Finance ministers representing the Group of 7 (G-7) industrialized countries met in Boca Raton, Florida, in early February amid concerns about the weakening of the U.S. dollar. One factor in the dollar's decline is the U.S. trade deficit, which is partly due to the undervalued Chinese yuan. The involvement of China, which is not a G-7 member, illustrates both the glaring gap in global governance and the increasing economic and policy interdependence between industrial countries and major emerging market economies (EMEs). As one observer, referring to the Boca Raton meeting, put it, "China is the 800-pound gorilla and it isn't even part of the negotiations."
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and China

5102. Deterring Conflict in the Taiwan Strait: The Successes and Failures of Taiwan's Defense Reform and Modernization Program

Author:
Micheal D. Swaine
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE TAIWAN STRAIT IS ONE OF THE TWO PLACES in the Asian Pacific where a major war could break out; the other place is the Korean Peninsula. For over fifty years, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, or Taiwan) have maintained an uneasy peace across the Strait, punctuated by brief periods of limited conflict or by occasional military displays. The PRC insists that Taiwan is a part of China and asserts that the island must one day be reunited with the mainland. Until the early 1990s, the ROC government also viewed Taiwan as an integral part of China and insisted on eventual reunification, albeit under the Chinese Nationalist flag. But in recent years, with democratization opening the system to native Taiwanese, public support for independence has grown, as has the alarm in Beijing. As tensions have grown and the prospect of the resumption of a cross-Strait understanding regarding Taiwan's status has become more remote, stability has depended primarily on military deterrence. For China, such deterrence aims to prevent the final consolidation of Taiwan's separate status. For Taiwan (and the United States), it aims at preventing China from using force to compel reunification on Beijing's terms.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia

5103. Assessing America's War on Terror: Confronting Insurgency, Cementing Primacy

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During the 1990s the United States and its allies enjoyed a much sought-after period of prosperity and tranquility following the end of the Cold War. In hindsight, however, it is now apparent that Al Qaeda, a fiercely anti-American global terrorist network, was taking root in over sixty countries during this period, culminating in the devastating September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, D.C. The Bush administration, which had entered office determined to secure U.S. primacy amid the emergence of major power centers in Asia, such as China, soon found itself forced to confront a worldwide Islamist insurgency. This study analyzes the relevance of terrorist groups as substatal actors in international politics, their influence on deeper dynamics of the international system, and the challenges facing the United States posed by transnational terrorist organizations. It argues that international terrorism, although currently salient, does not necessarily replace or even alter the traditional concerns of international politics, but rather subsists among them. On balance, the United States has managed these interlocking challenges with partial success, and needs to pay greater attention to pursuing the legitimacy and protecting the economic foundations of its power. Failing to do so, or waging a poorly defined “war against all,” carries the risk of far-reaching economic and political reverberations that may, in the not-too-distant future, enervate the United States, undermine its legitimacy as the sole superpower, and gradually erode continued American dominance in the world order.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
United States, China, New York, Washington, Middle East, and Asia

5104. President Bush's Muddled Policy on Taiwan

Author:
Ted Galen Carpenter
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The Bush administration has gone from one extreme to the other with regard to U.S. policy on Taiwan. During the early months of his administration, the president gave a seemingly unconditional pledge to defend Taiwan from attack by mainland China—going significantly further than his predecessors had. He followed that assurance by approving the largest arms sales package to Taiwan in nearly a decade. In marked contrast to the Clinton years, high-profile visits by Taiwanese leaders to the United States have been encouraged, despite Beijing's protests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

5105. North Korea's Nuclear Ambition: Causes and Consequences

Author:
Mustafa Kibaroglu
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
Because of the inferiority complex first against Japan, then against the United States, the North Korean leadership embarked upon nuclear weapons development program from the inception of their state. Due to the tangible and comprehensive support provided by the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China in the field of nuclear science and technology, North Korea has seemingly passed a significant threshold on the way to become a de facto nuclear weapons state. As of 2004, it is widely believed that North Korea has already extracted enough plutonium for a couple of nuclear warheads. Combined with its 1,350 kilometer-range ballistic missile capability, North Korea stands as one of the most significant threats to regional and global security and stability. In the aftermath of the September 11 terror attacks on the United States, Russia and China have greatly reduced their support to North Korea and intensified their efforts to mend the differences between that country and the US, just like Japan and South Korea did for long, with a view to not to pave the way to the escalation of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Soviet Union, and Korean Peninsula

5106. Future of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and China

Author:
Selçuk Çolakoglu
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
Sino-Russian bilateral relations have steadily developed during the 1990s. With the help of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which was established in 1996, China and Russia had the chance to balance the hegemony of the US in the world and to prevent the interfering of other great powers to central Eurasian issues. Central Asian countries, which have been historically and strategically squeezed between Russia and China, have also taken part in the SCO. With the US military operation of Afghanistan after September 11th terrorist attacks in 2001, the new era has started in Central Asia and the SCO has been affected negatively within this process. The attitude of Russia and China is very important for the future of the SCO as an organization. The SCO will be able to protect its entity and continue to develop, as long as the cooperation between China and Russia carries on depending on mutual interests.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Central Asia, and Asia

5107. China and Oil: The Middle East Dimension

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Rapidly growing Chinese oil demand was one of the key factors influencing discussions at this week's meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), convened in Vienna by ministers from OPEC member states. During the first eight months of 2004, Chinese oil imports surged by 40 percent compared with the same period in 2003, contributing to the rapid rise in oil prices during the summer. China, the world's most populous nation, knows its economic growth must be fueled by oil imports, with the Middle East serving as the principal source. Accordingly, Beijing has begun to make energy security a priority, mounting a campaign to build improved commercial and diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern states. These efforts will entail increased competition with U.S. influence in the region.
Topic:
Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, China, Middle East, and Arab Countries

5108. Globalization and Regional Income Inequality: Evidence from within China

Author:
Guanghua Wan, Zhao Chen, and Ming Lu
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
China's recent accession to the WTO is expected to accelerate its integration into the world economy, which aggravates concerns over the impact of globalization on the already rising inter-region income inequality in China. This paper discusses China's globalization process and estimates an income generating function, incorporating trade and FDI variables. It then applies the newly developed Shapley value decomposition technique to quantify the contributions of globalization, along with other variables, to regional inequality. It is found that (a) globalization constitutes a positive and substantial share to regional inequality and the share rises over time; (b) capital is one of the largest and increasingly important contributor to regional inequality; (c) economic reform characterized by privatization exerts a significant impact on regional inequality; and (d) the relative contributions of education, location, urbanization and dependency ratio to regional inequality have been declining.
Topic:
Economics and Globalization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5109. Output and Price Fluctuations in China's Reform Years: What Role did Money Play?

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The Chinese economy underwent cyclical fluctuations in growth and inflation in the reform period. Contrasting views exist on the role of money in such fluctuations. This paper assesses these views employing structural VEC models based on the exchange equation. It is found that in the long run money accommodates, rather than causes, changes in output and prices. In the short run, price fluctuations are mostly attributable to shocks that have permanent effects on prices and money but not on real output. These shocks also account for a large proportion of fluctuations in money, and strongly influence the movements of output.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5110. What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock, and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade 'imbalance'.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5111. China's Business Cycles: Perspectives from an AD–AS Model

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper represents a first attempt to study China's business cycles using a formal analytical framework, namely, a structural VAR model. It is found that: (a) demand shocks were the dominant source of macroeconomic fluctuations, but supply shocks had gained more importance over time; (b) the driving forces of demand shocks were consumption and fixed investment in the first cycle of 1985–90, but shifted to fixed investment and world demand in the second cycle of 1991–96 and the post-1997 deflation period; and (c) macroeconomic policies did not play an important part either in initiating or counteracting cyclical fluctuations.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
China

5112. Divergent Means and Convergent Inequality of Incomes among the Provinces and Cities of Urban China

Author:
John Knight, Li Shi, and Zhao Renwei
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Two precisely comparable national household surveys relating to 1988 and 1995 are used to analyse changes in the inequality of income in urban China. Over those seven years province mean income per capita grew rapidly but diverged across provinces, whereas intra-province income inequality grew rapidly but converged across provinces. The reasons for these trends are explored by means of various forms of decomposition analysis. Comparisons are also made between the coastal provinces and the inland provinces. The decompositions show the central role of wages, and within wages profitrelated bonuses, together with the immobility of labour across provinces, in explaining mean income divergence. The timing of economic reforms helps to explain the convergence of intra-province income inequality. Policy conclusions are drawn.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5113. Income Inequality in Rural China: Regression-based Decomposition Using Household Data

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Zhangyue Zhou
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A considerable literature exists on the measurement of income inequality in China and its increasing trend. Much less is known, however, about the driving forces of this trend and their quantitative contributions. Conventional decompositions, by factor components or by population subgroups, only provide limited information on the determinants of income inequality. This paper represents an early attempt to apply the regression-based decomposition framework to the study of inequality accounting in rural China, using household level data. It is found that geography has been the dominant factor but is becoming less important in explaining total inequality. Capital input emerges as a most significant determinant of income inequality. Farming structure is more important than labour and other inputs in contributing to income inequality across households.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5114. Fifty Years of Regional Inequality in China: A Journey through Central Planning, Reform, and Openness

Author:
Ravi Kanbur and Xiaobo Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper constructs and analyses a long-run time-series for regional inequality in China from the Communist Revolution to the present. There have been three peaks of inequality in the last fifty years, coinciding with the Great Famine of the late 1950s, the Cultural Revolution of the late 1960s and 1970s, and finally the period of openness and global integration in the late 1990s. Econometric analysis establishes that regional inequality is explained in the different phases by three key policy variables; the ratio of heavy industry to gross output value, the degree of decentralization, and the degree of openness.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5115. Taiwan Strait IV: How an Ultimate Political Settlement Might Look

Publication Date:
02-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Each side's most preferred solution for resolving the continuing Taiwan Strait issue – in the case of Taipei, widely recognised de jure independence; and in the case of Beijing, reunification of China on the same 'one country, two systems' basis as Hong Kong – are both non-starters. Neither society is likely to accommodate the other or change to the degree necessary to make either option realistically achievable, even ten or fifteen years down the road. If the risk of conflict across the Taiwan Strait – too serious to be accepted with equanimity, as the tensions of the last few months have shown – is to be reduced, then there has to be new thinking about what an ultimate political settlement might look like, and how to get there.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, East Asia, and Hong Kong

5116. Energy insecurity: China, India and Middle East oil

Author:
Anthony Bubalo and Mark P Thirlwell
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The rapid expansion of their economies has seen China and India become voracious consumers of energy. Oil, much of it imported from the Middle East, has become an increasingly important part of their energy needs. Both governments are conscious that this growing reliance on one of the world's most unstable regions leaves their countries vulnerable to supply disruptions and/or price fluctuations. As a result, energy security has become a key foreign policy objective and, particularly in the case of China, is shaping their approach to the Middle East. This issues brief provides an overview of current energy demand trends and raises for discussion some of the potential longer term strategic implications of this growing dependence on Mid-East oil.
Topic:
Energy Policy
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, India, and Asia

5117. River at risk: the Mekong and the Water Politics of China and Southeast Asia

Author:
Milton Osborne
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
By the middle of March 2004 there was growing concern in Thailand, Laos and Cambodia about the level of the Mekong River. Poor rains in the wet season of 2003 and a subsequent protracted dry period appeared to be largely to blame for the sharply lower level of water in the Mekong by comparison with 'normal' years. But the unusually dry season may not have been the only factor at work. Officials in Thailand have claimed that Chinese authorities have endeavoured to limit the flow of water out of the dams already built on the Mekong in China's Yunnan province, as they undertake new dam construction and continue work to clear the river of obstacles to navigation. At the same time, Thai officials suggest that unusual volatility in the river's flow reflects the manner in which China has been closing its dam gates. Gates are closed for three days, before opening them for one day to allow Chinese cargo vessels to travel to and from river ports in the southern Yunnan province and northern Thailand.
Topic:
Environment, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, Cambodia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

5118. The Beijing 2008 Olympic Games: China in the limelight

Author:
John Bowan
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Beijing's successful bid for the 2008 Olympic Games gives China a unique opportunity to signal its emergence as a leading player in the mainstream of international affairs. The Games will provide a unique opportunity to showcase to the international public, as well as to foreign governments and international business, China's technical and organisational capabilities, its cultural and social achievements, and its standing and potential as a global economic power and partner. The ongoing strong commitment to the Games by the national Government, and the rapid and efficient progress made to date by the Beijing Olympic organisers, are impressive; from a technical point of view, China's challenging Olympic project is on track. The Games will make some limited contribution to the extraordinary economic and technological development China is making, particularly in environmental protection. Similarly, the Games have the potential to make some incremental contribution to improving human rights in China. Their significance as a force for change in this area should not be overestimated, however, and the evidence is that the Olympic influence on China's human rights has so far been limited. Despite the good cooperation at the Olympic level that has developed between China and Taiwan in recent years, the hosting of the Games would not stand in the way of drastic action by China if Taiwan pursued independence beyond the limits of its tolerance. Australia's cooperative Olympic links with China, developed during Beijing's bid, add a valuable dimension to the strong and important relationship between the two countries.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, and Development
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5119. What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. The financial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short-and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent efforts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the economy is now on a glide path to what is referred to as a soft landing. While “soft landing” is usually not fully defined, its chief feature in this case is that Chinese economic growth slows modestly from its current pace of 9 to 10 percent to around 8 percent and that the rate of job creation does not slow enough to constitute a major political challenge for the regime. At the other end of the spectrum is the hard landing school, which argues that the authorities to date have not tightened sufficiently, that loan and investment growth remain excessive, and that the authorities soon will be forced to take more drastic action that will trigger a sharp correction. Finally, the no landing school argues that China's efforts to slow growth modestly are misguided since the economy was not overheating in 2003 and early 2004. In this view, China is in the early stages of a secular boom that has several additional years to run.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5120. China Bashing 2004

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Yee Wong
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
On April 26, 2004, Senator John Kerry released his six-point trade pro - gram, “Trade Enforcement: Asleep at the Wheel,” and conspicuously targeted China for violating worker rights, dumping, and supporting “illegal currency manipulation” (Kerry 2004). Five days earlier, senior Bush administration officials met with Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi to settle a few trade disputes (e.g., WiFi) but did not resolve the most contentious ones (exchange rates, semiconductors, and labor rights).
Topic:
Development, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5121. Doubling the Global Work Force: The Challenge of Integrating China, India, and the Former Soviet Bloc into the World Economy

Author:
Richard B. Freeman
Publication Date:
11-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
In 1985, the global economic world (N. America, S. America, Western Europe, Japan, Asian Tigers, Africa) consisted of 2.5 billion people. In 2000 as a result of the collapse of communism, India's turn from autarky, China's shift to market capitalism, global economy encompassed 6 billion people. Had China, India, and the former Soviet empire stayed outside, global economy would have had 3.3 billion.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa, Japan, China, America, India, Asia, and Western Europe

5122. What Went Right in Japan

Author:
Adam S. Posen
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Japan's recovery is strong. Real GDP growth will exceed 4 percent this year and likely be 3 percent or higher in 2005 and perhaps even 2006. The Japanese economy has been growing solidly for the last five quarters (average real 3.2 percent annualized rate), and the pace is sustainable, given Japan's underlying potential growth rate (which has risen to 2 to 2.5 percent per year) and the combination of catch-up growth closing the current output gap and some reforms that will raise the growth rate for quarters to come (though not permanently). Indicators of domestic demand beyond capital investment are increasingly positive, including housing starts bottoming out, inventories drawing down, and diminished deflation. Moreover, on the external side, while China was the main source of export growth in 2003, the composition of exports has become more balanced this year and is widening beyond that seen in other recoveries. Just as in the United States and other developed economies, a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth and a sustained further increase in energy prices represent the primary risks to the outlook.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

5123. Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies

Author:
Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
During the past year, there has been considerable debate about, and much international criticism of, China's exchange rate and its currency regime. Yes, criticism of China in the United States would likely be more muted if the ongoing recovery were not so “jobless,” if employment in the US manufacturing sector had not (mainly for other reasons) declined so much in the three-year run-up to this presidential elect ion year, if so much attention were not focused on the very large bilateral US trade deficit with China instead of China's economically—more meaningful overall balance-of-payments position, and if the United States had not done such a poor job of improving its saving-investment imbalance—particularly in the public sector.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

5124. Considering China as a Potential Member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Author:
Andrew Prosser
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
In January 2004, China formally requested to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), an informal multilateral export control regime that aims to contribute to the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons through the coordination and implementation of guidelines which govern transfers of nuclear material and technology. The NSG's membership comprises the principal nuclear supplier states in Europe and the Americas, as well as Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, South Africa, and a number of former Eastern Bloc states, including Russia. The group's decisions, including those concerning the admission of new members, are made on a consensus basis, but the informal nature of the organization means that its decisions cannot be construed as legally binding upon its member countries.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand

5125. The World's Nuclear Arsenals

Author:
Ali Chaudhry and Andrew George
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
Though the exact size of China's nuclear arsenal is unknown, current best estimates are that China has about 280 strategic weapons, and a smaller number — about 120 — of tactical weapons. The weapons are based on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and strategic bombers, with a naval component under research.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
China

5126. The Economic aspects of security in South Eastern Europe

Author:
Mladen Stanisis
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian National Defence Academy
Abstract:
In the process of constructing a safety structure in the South Eastern Europe one must bear in mind the assumptions on which the new global safety structure is based, and those are: 1. Europe, and the surrounding area of the region, is becoming more stable and peaceful, and there are no indications that there will be any armed conflicts between states in the near future. 2. The situation of volatility and insecurity is spreading globally due to unconventional threats, like international terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, drug-trafficking, illegal immigration etc. 3. The EU, as an institution of international integration, and NATO, as an international organisation, are starting to see eye to eye and are co-ordinating their activities on the basis of compatible civilisation values against the stated threats and in attempt to further economic development of the EU. 4. The role and the importance of multilateral organisations are diminishing. The emphasis is being put on the importance of bilateral relations, especially by the last superpower, the USA, whose policy of unilateralism will surely dominate international relations for some time to come. 5. Other stakeholders in the domain of international relations, with the potential to become partners of the USA in the process of reaffirming multilateral relations. The EU, the People's Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the UN have just begun adapting to new relations and there are no indications that the position of the USA as the leading world power would be contested. 6. The globalisation process dominates all aspects of international relations on the basis of scientific and technological revolution, as well as revolution in the communication of information. It will be a consistent mechanism of transferring the model of liberal democracy internationally.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Central Asia

5127. Could Humphrey Have Gone to China? Measuring the Electoral Costs and Benefits of Making Peace

Author:
Kenneth Schultz
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Theoretical arguments for why “it takes a Nixon to go to China” emphasize either the superior credibility that hawks have in advocating peace or the superior political benefits they enjoy in doing so. This paper looks for evidence of these effects in the canonical case: that of U.S. rapprochement with China in the early 1970s. I use counterfactual simulations on data from the 1968 National Election Study to explore the political effects of a proposal to open relations with China, focusing on whether and how those effects would depend on who made the proposal: Richard Nixon or Hubert Humphrey. I find evidence of both the credibility and electoral security effects hypothesized in the theoretical literature. In particular, there is a very dramatic asymmetry in the political costs and benefits of proposing peace: while such a proposal would have been electorally costly for Humphrey, it could have been an electoral boon for Nixon.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North America

5128. China and State/Space: Scale Relations and the City in an Era of Globalization

Author:
Carolyn Cartier
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Since the onset of reform and opening in the People's Republic of China after 1978, decentralization of state power has arguably been the most consequential transformation of the Chinese political economy, underpinning the dynamics of economic growth and state-society relations. The growth of the number and size of cities and the urban population—urbanization—are the outstanding geographical manifestations of these processes. How should we analyze the relationships between them? This chapter introduces scale relations as a basis for assessing the decentralization of state power and urbanization, and to demonstrate the 'rescaling' of the Chinese state in an era of globalization as spatial processes and their manifestation at the urban scale.
Topic:
Globalization and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5129. CERI: Political Opposition, Nationalism and Islam among the Uygurs in Xinjiang Abstract

Author:
Rémi Castets
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
With a substantial Uyghur population, Xinjiang (East Turkistan) is, after Uzbekistan, the second largest Muslim Turkic-speaking area of settlement area in Central Asia. Annexed by China fairly late, this territory has a tumultuous history punctuated by foreign interference and separatist insurrections. Through strict control of the regional political system and a massive influx of Han settlers, the communist regime has managed to integrate this strategic region and its large oil deposits into the rest of China.
Topic:
Nationalism, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
China, Central Asia, Asia, and Uzbekistan

5130. CERI: Regional integration in Asia since China's entry into the WTO

Author:
Diana Hochraich
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Since their economic development got under way, the ASEAN countries - which essentially manufacture labour-intensive products - have been marked by strong regional integration brought about by the segmentation of the production process engaged in by Japanese companies. In these countries, successive relocations resulted in de facto economic integration at a time when various political groupings intent on blocking the development of communism were also emerging. Since joining the WTO, China - the world's workshop - has become the hub for trade with the developed countries. In the face of such competition, the ASEAN countries will have to show their capacity to maintain their position in the value chain represented by the production of all of the Asian countries.
Topic:
Economics and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5131. CERI: The socio-political effects of forced migrations linked tomajor hydraulic projects in China. The example of the Three Gorges dam.

Author:
Florence Padovani
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
The study of the population movements caused by the major Chinese hydraulic projects reveals the true extent of the change which has come about in relations between the State and society in China. The construction of the Three Gorges dam-which led to considerable controversy both within China and beyond - is a prime case in point.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5132. From the Discourse of "Sino-West" to "Globalization": Chinese Perspectives on Globalization

Author:
Yu Keping
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:
“Globalization” has become a fashionable term, and is itself as globalized as McDonald's, the Internet and the film Titanic. So wherever in the West or the East, in developing or developed countries, or in capitalist or socialist countries, people are talking about “globalization,” so too are they doing in China. All popular theories in the West tend to have repercussions in China sooner or later, as the examples of modernization theory, postmodern theory and globalization theory demonstrate. Modernization theory, which prevailed in the West in the 1950s and 1960s, did not become popular in China until the 1980s, while globalization theory, which came to prominence in the West in the early 1990s, has been a hot topic in China since the mid-1990s. This fact itself is a good indicator that globalization has been an inevitable trend shaping the development process of the world, including China. Having introduced reforms that open the country's economy to the world markets, and as an active member of the international community, China is necessarily facing the effects of globalization. As a result, Chinese politicians and scholars are posing questions about how to respond to the challenges and opportunities that globalization presents.
Topic:
Globalization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5133. The Tibet-China Conflict: History and Polemics

Author:
Elliot Sperling
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
This paper is a guide to the historical arguments made by the primary parties to the Tibet-China conflict. Given the polarization that has characterized this issue for decades, it is surprising that little has been done to analyze or at least disentangle the strands of historical argumentation that the parties have been using. This paper attempts to do this by relying as much as possible on the key assertions as they have been framed in Chinese and Tibetan sources. Chinese- and Tibetan-language materials dealing with the historical status of Tibet are often more detailed and better documented, and hew more closely than English-language materials do to the thinking of the people most directly concerned with (and affected by) the Tibet-China conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Tibet

5134. Firm Size, Technical Efficiency and Productivity Growth in Chinese Industry'

Author:
Dic Lo and Yuk-Shing Cheng
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Since the mid-1990s, China's state leadership has adopted a policy of nurturing the competitiveness of large state-owned industrial enterprises. The implications of this policy have been a matter of debate in the literature. This paper seeks to provide some useful input into the debate. With a view of investigating into the potential of long-term development of large enterprises, we estimate the “sequential production technology” in computing the Malmquist productivity index for various size-groups of enterprises in Chinese industry. Our findings indicate that large enterprises did register the fastest productivity growth and improvement in technical efficiency in the 1994-97 period. It thus appears that large-scale, mainly state-owned Chinese enterprises have exhibited the potential of m a king noticeable improvements and the relevant state policy does have its justification.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China

5135. China's Nexus of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Making Sense of the Anomaly

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Using a range of specifications that are standard in the relevant literature, this paper finds that China's rapid and sustained economic growth in the reform era has tended to be negatively correlated with its export growth and positively correlated with its import growth. This finding runs counter to widely -held perceptions on China's nexus of foreign trade and economic growth, and thus presents a serious challenge for interpretation. On the basis of some further regression analyses, and drawing on a number of applied studies on the subject matter, the paper argues that the finding is plausible and of complex ramifications. The conclusion which this paper arrives at, therefore, is that the Chinese experience has tended to be a case of strategic integration into the world market, rather than conforming to the standard neoclassical thesis of trade regime neutrality.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China

5136. Assessing the Role of Foreign Direct Investment in China's Economic Development: Macro Indicators and Insights from Sectoral-Regional Analyses'

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to assess the role of FDI in China's economic development with reference to the broader literature on FDI and late development. Three main findings come out from the analyses in the paper. First, it is found that FDI tends to promote the improvement in allocative efficiency, while having a negative impact on productive efficiency. Second, insofar as FDI does promote overall productivity growth, this tends to be a matter of cumulative causation rather than one of single-direction causation. Third, in the context of a comparative analysis of two distinctive regional models, it is found that the economic impact of FDI tends to be more favourable in the inward-looking, capital-deepening pattern of development (the 'Shanghai model') than that in the export-oriented, labour-intensive pattern (the 'Guangdong model'). Further analyses, however, suggest that the 'Shanghai model' has its intrinsic problems of sustainability. The scope for applying it to China as a whole is thus judged to be limited.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Shanghai

5137. Defense Science Board 2003 Summer Study on DoD Roles and Missions in Homeland Security, Volume B

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
During the Cold War, the United States developed and refined intelligence capabilities upon a number of key factors: Known adversaries, the Soviet Union and the Communist Bloc, including China and North Korea; Known geographic boundaries: that of the communist nation states (We knew where to look); Known conflict of ideology: communism vs. capitalism; Observable (with some degree of confidence over time) military capabilities of adversaries; and Indications (and in some cases, warning - developed over the years) of activity potentially hazardous to the United States and NATO.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, and North Korea

5138. Is China "Exporting Deflation"?

Author:
Steven B. Kamin, Mario Marazzi, and John W. Schindler
Publication Date:
01-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In the past few years, observers increasingly have pointed to China as a source of downward pressure on global prices. This paper evaluates the theoretical and empirical evidence bearing on the question of whether China's buoyant export growth has led to significant changes in the inflation performance of its trading partners. This evidence suggests that the impact of Chinese exports on global prices has been, while non-negligible, fairly modest. On a priori grounds, our theoretical analysis suggests that China's economy is still too small relative to the world economy to have much effect on global inflation: a back-of-the-envelope calculation puts that effect at about 1/3 percentage point in recent years. In terms of the empirical evidence, we identify a statistically significant effect of U.S. imports from China on U.S. import prices, but given the size of this effect and the relatively low share of imports in U.S. GDP, the ultimate impact on the U.S. consumer prices has likely been quite small. Moreover, imports from China had little apparent effect on U.S. producer prices. Finally, using a multi-country database of trade transactions, we estimate that since 1993, Chinese exports lowered annual import inflation in a large set of economies by 1/4 percentage point or less on average, similar to the prediction of our theoretical model.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

5139. Shaping U.S. Policy on Africa: Pillars of a New Strategy

Author:
Johnnie Carson
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In the four decades since most African states achieved independence, the continent has never been a foreign policy priority for the United States. During the early years of American engagement with Africa, Washington focused its attention on preventing communist countries from gaining major military bases or monopolistic concessions over any of the continent's important strategic minerals. Although the United States provided large amounts of development assistance and food aid to a number of African states, most American interest and support was directed toward African countries and leaders who were regarded as Cold War allies. In those countries still struggling for independence, the United States usually supported African insurgents who were pro-Western and anticommunist in their orientation. In South Africa and Namibia, Washington generally professed great sympathy for eventual majority rule and independence but largely supported the status quo out of fear that liberation groups allied with the Soviet Union or China would win power in any political transition.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, China, America, Washington, and Soviet Union

5140. China Brief, Energy Concerns and China's Unresolved Territorial Disputes

Author:
Matthew Oresman, Drew Thompson, John C.k. Daly, and Harvey Stockwin
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
While much of the world is fixated on China's booming economic growth and its ravenous appetite for energy, untidy diplomatic loose ends in the form of territorial disputes with neighbors have many of the countries bordering the Asian giant nervous. Though Beijing's claims over Taiwan remain the focus of world attention, China is embroiled in unresolved territorial maritime and land issues with no less than thirteen of its neighbors. Given that China's military capability is growing apace with its economy, the potential for military conflict over the disputed regions is similarly on the rise. While China up to now has attempted to address these issues diplomatically, the fact that many of the unresolved border disputes involve potential energy reserves might prompt China to use military force to resolve issues of strategic economic interest.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, and Asia

5141. China Brief, Beijing's North Korean Gambit

Author:
Willy Lam, Lionel Martin, John Tkacik, and Toby Lincoln
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Beijing is flashing the North Korean (DPRK) card at a time when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership feels increasingly threatened by an anti-China “containment policy” that Washington is supposedly spearheading with the help of Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries and regions.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Washington, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, Asia, and North Korea

5142. China Brief, China's Quest for Energy Security

Author:
Wenran Jiang, Willy Lam, Dennis J. Blasko, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The year is 2008. The setting is the vast West Pacific region. To break the US-Japan- Taiwan military containment of China, the combined air, navy and armed forces of the Chinese Liberation Army (PLA), equipped with newly established carrier battle groups, have destroyed all U.S. military bases in the region, taken control of all strategic sea routes from the Strait of Malacca to the Persian Gulf, and imposed an oil embargo to choke the U.S., Japan, Taiwan and their allies.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Israel, and Taiwan

5143. China Brief, Hu Jintao's Move to Consolidate Power

Author:
Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Dennis J. Blasko, and Zhu Feng
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
President and Central Military Commission (CMC) Chairman Hu Jintao has moved swiftly to tighten his grip over the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The emphasis that the new commander-in-chief has put on flexing the nation's fast-growing military muscle has fed speculation that he will be taking a more hard-line stance on relations with the U.S. and with Taiwan. However, it is unlikely that the predominant Hu-Wen Faction – a reference to the leadership team under Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao – will unveil too many major initiatives until it has consolidated its control over the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the government and the army.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Taiwan

5144. China Brief, Hong Kong's LegCo Elections: Overcoming the System

Author:
Christine Loh, Willy Lam, Eric Teo, and Zhenzhen Chen
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The 1.784 million voters that participated in Hong Kong's 2004 Legislative Council Election gave a clear signal that they want democracy sooner rather than later. Whereas until now Hong Kongers have only been able to select the opposition, the recent elections indicated the people's desire to elect their city government. However, herein lies the uniqueness of Hong Kong's political system. Despite the city's many achievements in education standards, economic vibrancy, and social stability, its seven million people have yet to be allowed to freely choose their municipal political leaders.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Israel

5145. China Brief, China and Japan: The Separation of Economics and Politics

Author:
Christine Loh, Eugene Kogan, Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, and Zhu Feng
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The soon-to-be-announced appointment of former Vice-Foreign Minister Wang Yi as Chinese Ambassador to Japan is emblematic of efforts by the Hu Jintao-Wen Jiabao leadership to improve Sino-Japanese relationship. In the past year, bilateral ties have deteriorated due to a host of issues ranging from “the question of history” – and compensation for World War II-related damages – to altercations over rights to oil and gas under the East China Sea. Protests by nationalistic Chinese groupings outside the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, banned until about two years ago, have become almost routine. Ugly scenes at a recent soccer match between the two national teams in the Chinese capital demonstrated the hostility with which many Chinese regard their nextdoor neighbor. And in Japan, the “China threat” theory is fast gaining ground owing to the perception that an economically and militarily strong China is throwing its weight around and threatening Japanese interests everywhere.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Israel

5146. China Brief, New Challenges in the Election Season

Author:
Stephen Green, Willy Lam, Eric Teo, and Alexandr Nemets
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Although the Chinese leadership faces no electoral contenders, Beijing will soon have to deal with two uncertain but crucial elections in the next four months, the consequences of which could have serious implications for China's internal political cohesiveness as well as regional stability. In September, Hong Kongers will elect their Legislative Council (Legco), of which 30 seats are set aside for election through universal suffrage and the other 30 through “functional representation.” And in December, Taiwanese go to the polls to choose their next Legislative Yuan (Taiwan's legislature), nine months after they had renewed the mandate of President Chen Shui-Bian for a second term in March.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and Taiwan

5147. China Brief,Beijing's Reaction to East Asia's Changing Alliance

Author:
Christine Loh, Willy Lam, Eric Teo, and Steven Sun
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
If China had sufficient economic and military prowess, there seems little doubt the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership would “go teach the U.S. a lesson” for the wrongs it had allegedly inflicted upon on the country. Previous CCP administrations had used similar clauses of indignation – and the assertion of a moral high ground based on self-defense and the preservation of sovereign rights – when they went to war with nations including India, Russia and Vietnam. And while the Chinese party and military leadership may for the time being be deterred by America's superpower status from trying out something rash, tension between China on the one hand, and the U.S. and many Asian countries on the other, is expected to rise in the foreseeable future.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, America, Asia, and Vietnam

5148. China Brief, No More 'Soft Sell' for Hong Kong

Author:
Willy Lam, Zhu Feng, Kevin Scott, Marat Yermukanov, and Andrew Thompson
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Beijing has acted quickly to dash the hopes that the half-a-million-people rally in Hong Kong last week will change the leadership's hard-line stance toward universal-suffrage elections in the special administrative region (SAR). While the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has continued with its public-relations, united-front offensive to win hearts and minds in the territory, it is expected to step up its divide-and-run tactics in order to isolate and marginalize pro-democracy politicians and intellectuals who dare challenge Beijing's suzerainty.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, and Hong Kong

5149. China Brief, A Prisoner's Dilemma: The EU's China Arms Embargo

Author:
Willy Lam, Richard A. Bitzinger, Alexandr Nemets, and Enzio Von Pfeil
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In April, the European Union (EU) dodged a bullet by refusing to take up the issue of overturning its 15-year-old ban on selling arms to China. Supporters of lifting the embargo, led by France and Germany, are unlikely to abandon their quest, however, and the issue will likely come up again for review, perhaps as early as this summer. If it lifts the ban, the EU risks further damaging a transatlantic alliance already strained over Iraq and other issues, with very little likelihood that its defense industry would see much, if any, benefit.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Israel

5150. China Brief, A Warming Friendship: Part II of a Two Part Series on China, Taiwan, and Latin America

Author:
Willy Lam, Drew Thompson, Cynthia Watson, and James P. Jr. Muldoon
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The recent spate of articles on China's growing energy and natural resource consumption is a key explanation for Beijing's growing interest in South America. While the continent remains at least fourth on China's list of priorities, the vast array of resources available, coupled with a growing population eager to increase its consumption of goods, makes this part of the world ever more enticing. The People's Republic of China (PRC) seeks to put a modest investment in diplomatic, military, cultural, and trade relations for a possible long-term gain of significant proportion.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, and South America