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4951. Is China an economic threat to Southeast Asia?

Author:
John Ravenhill
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) caused widespread concern that it would gain market share at the expense of other economies in East Asia, especially the lower-income ASEAN economies. Economic modelling done by the World Bank and others appeared to substantiate these fears; the conclusions of these studies caused further consternation among politicians and academic commentators in Southeast Asia who believed that China's success in the 1990s in attracting foreign direct investment had come at ASEAN's expense.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and World Bank
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

4952. The Emergence of a New 'Socialist' Market Labour Regime in China

Author:
Gunter Schucher and Jutta Hebel
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
China's transition to a market economy has been a process of basic institutional changes and institution building. The institutional change from a socialist labour regime (SLR) as one of the backbones upholding the traditional leninist system to a new 'socialist' market labour regime (SMLR) became particularly important for the success of economic and political reforms. This analysis is based on the analytical framework of regimes and makes use of the idea of path dependence. An ensemble of institutions, mutually interconnected and influencing each other, forms the regime and shapes its trajectory. Six institutions are identified to constitute the employment regime: (1) the system of social control, (2) the production system, (3) the system of industrial relations, (4) the welfare system, (5) the family order, and (6) the educational system. The SMLR is still characterised by its socialist past and differs from other varieties of transformation labour regimes and bears little resemblance to labour regimes in Western market economies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4953. Challenging Party Hegemony: Identity Work in China's Emerging Virreal Places

Author:
Karsten Giese
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The Chinese Communist Party has chosen to base the legitimacy of its rule on its performance as leading national power. Since national identity is based on shared imaginations of and directly tied to territory – hence place, this paper analyses both heterodox models for identification on the national and potentially competing place-based collective identities on the local level. This analysis, based on communication within a number of popular communication forums and on observation of behavior in the physical reality of today's urban China, shows that communication within the virtual and behavior in the real world are not separated realities but form a new virreal spatial continuum consisting of imagined places both online and offline. I argue that ties to place are stronger and identities constructed on shared imaginations of place are more salient the more direct the experience of place is – be the place real, virtual or virreal. Hence in China challenges to one-party rule will probably accrue from competing localized collective identities rather than from heterodox nationalism.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4954. Ideological Reform and Political Legitimacy in China: Challenges in the Post-Jiang Era

Author:
Heike Holbig
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
As a Socialist country undergoing rapid social and economic transition, China presents a revealing case study on the role of ideology in the process of institutional change. Based on Douglass North's theory of institutional change and on David Beetham's theory of political legitimation, this paper argues that recent ideological reforms have been a crucial factor in sustaining the legitimacy of Communist party rule. Ideological change is conceived as a path-dependent process which helps to stabilize the social perception of transition and to frame the party's modernization achievements. At the same time, the dominant role of ideology makes the Chinese party-state, despite its economic success, more vulnerable to legitimacy crises compared to other authoritarian regimes.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4955. Brookings Foreign Policy Studies Energy Security Series: China

Author:
Erica Downs
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
China's blistering economic growth has made access to adequate energy supplies an increasingly important priority. It is the world's second largest consumer and third largest producer of primary energy. From 2000 to 2005, China's energy consumption rose by 60 percent, accounting for almost half of the growth in world energy consumption. The country is able to meet more than 90 percent of its energy needs with domestic supplies — largely because of abundant coal reserves and a coal-based economy. However, it imports almost half of the oil it consumes.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4956. Brookings Foreign Policy Studies Energy Security Series: Japan

Author:
Peter C. Evans
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
For decades, Japan dominated Asia's energy picture. At the time of the first oil shock in 1973, it held a 60 percent share of Asia's oil demand. During the 1980s, Japan looked to China for oil and coal as part of its energy import diversification strategy. Today, Japan remains an important energy market but its position in Asia's energy supply and demand balance is rapidly changing. In the wake of surging regional demand, Japan's share of oil consumption is likely to fall below 15 percent of total Asian consumption by 2020. Demand for its major fuel needs — including oil, gas, coal, and uranium — is expected to remain relatively flat or increase only marginally. Meanwhile, the rest of Asia's requirement for these fuels is projected to grow dramatically, leaving Japan to confront a future in which it will be a smaller energy player facing a more crowded field of competitors for these energy supplies.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia

4957. Untangling China's Quest for Oil through State-backed Financial Deals

Author:
Erica Downs and Peter C. Evans
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The efforts of China's national oil companies to secure upstream oil assets abroad have attracted attention from U.S. officials and policymakers. Congress has taken notice, as indicated by the request of the Chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Resources Committee Richard W. Pombo—triggered by the bid made by China National Offshore Oil Corporation Ltd. for Unocal in 2005—for a study by the Department of Energy of the economic and national security implications of China's energy demand. The report, released in February 2006, concludes that the foreign investments of China's national oil companies do not pose an economic challenge to the U.S. However, one issue the report mentions only in passing that merits further attention is how the Chinese government's financial support for some of these investments can undermine an open and competitive world oil market.
Topic:
Security, Economics, and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

4958. China's Social Unrest: The Story Behind the Stories

Author:
Albert Kiedel
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China is confronting widespread violent and even deadly social unrest, raising Communist Party alarms about national security. Some observers speculate that unrest could undermine China's national leadership, as it did in the Ukraine and the Philippines. Some U.S. policy makers might welcome unrest in China as a path to democracy and “freedom.” But rather than an opportunity to transform China's political order, China's social unrest should be understood as the unavoidable side effects—worsened by local corruption—of successful market reforms and expanded economic and social choice. Managing this unrest humanely requires accelerated reform of legal and social institutions with special attention to corruption. More violence would generate more suffering, potentially destabilizing East Asia and harming U.S. interests. The United States should encourage China to strengthen its social reconciliation capabilities, without making electoral political reform a prerequisite for intensifying engagement across the board.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Ukraine, East Asia, and Asia

4959. China's Charm: Implications of Chinese Soft Power

Author:
Josh Kurlantzick
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past decade China has downplayed its hard power in Southeast Asia, instead creating a strategy to build its soft power. For the first time in post-WWII history, the United States may be facing a situation in which another country's appeal outstrips its own in an important region, a change sure to shock the United States. Before China's appeal spreads to other parts of the developing world, U.S. policy makers need to understand how China exerts soft power, if China's soft power could be dangerous to developing nations, and whether elements of China's charm could threaten U.S. interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and Southeast Asia

4960. Reform in Syria: Steering between the Chinese Model and Regime Change

Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The issue of political reform in Syria straddles the line between reform of political institutions and removal from power of a particular regime and entails both domestic and external actors. The regime of Bashar al-Asad is under pressure from Syrian citizens who want a different political system and different leadership. He is also under pressure from the United States, which wants Syria to change its regional policy: stop intruding in Lebanese affairs, reduce support of Palestinian groups, and make a bigger effort to prevent infiltration of radical Islamists into Iraq. As a result, it is impossible to separate completely a domestic process of political reform from the external pressures. The two are entangled to a much greater extent than in any other country in the region except Iraq, and the analysis that follows reflects this entanglement.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

4961. Pakistan: The Resurgence of Baluch Natonalism

Author:
Frédéric Grare
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Thirty years after a bloody conflict that official sources estimate caused more than five thousand deaths among the rebels and almost three thousand among the Pakistan Army, Baluchistan seems to be heading toward another armed insurrection. During the summer of 2004, there were numerous attacks against the army and the paramilitary forces as well as repeated sabotage of oil pipelines. Since the rape of a female doctor by a group of soldiers on January 2, 2005, in the hospital in Sui, the principal gas-producing center in Baluchistan, assaults have multiplied, culminating in a pitched battle between the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary unit, and the local Bugtis, one of the largest Baluch tribes. According to the Pakistani daily, The Nation, approximately 1,568 “terrorist” attacks occurred through April 3, 2005. These attacks have not been confined only to tribal areas but have targeted Pakistani armed forces and Chinese nationals working on major regional projects all over the province.
Topic:
Nationalism, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, and Middle East

4962. The Rise and Fall of the Bush Doctrine: the Impact on Transatlantic Relations

Author:
Justin Vaisse
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Between 2002 and 2005, a relatively coherent and profoundly renewed strategic approach to international relations was developed by the Bush administration. Premised on an optimistic assessment of great power relations (”a balance of power that favors freedom”), it emphasized the importance of promoting democracy as a way to solve many of the long-term political and security problems of the greater Middle East. It rested on the view that American military power and assertive diplomacy should be used to defeat tyrannies, challenge a pernicious status quo and coerce states into abandoning weapons of mass destruction and support for terrorism - without worrying too much about legitimacy or formal multilateralism. The Bush doctrine led to tensions with the Europeans, who for the most part shared neither the world view that underpinned it nor its optimism about possible results, especially as far as geopolitical stability, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction were concerned. Then, in 2005, two silent developments took place: the Bush administration, while insisting on staying the course rhetorically (through “transformational diplomacy”), reverted to classical realism in its actual diplomacy - largely for reasons of expediency. China and India, on the other hand, imposed themselves on the global agenda, bringing multipolarity back into the picture of the world to come. While generally closer to European views, the new American realist line remains distinct from the European insistence on strengthening the rules and institutions of global governance.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Terrorism, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

4963. The Economics of Young Democracies: Policies and Performance

Author:
Nathan Converse and Ethan Kapstein
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Since the “third wave” of democratization began in 1974, nearly 100 states have adopted democratic forms of government, including, of course, most of the former Soviet bloc nations. Policy-makers in the west have expressed the hope that this democratic wave will extend even further, to the Middle East and onward to China. But the durability of this new democratic age remains an open question. By some accounts, at least half of the world's young democracies—often referred to in the academic literature as being “unconsolidated” or “fragile”—are still struggling to develop their political institutions, and several have reverted back to authoritarian rule. Among the countries in the early stages of democratic institution building are states vital to U.S. national security interests, including Afghanistan and Iraq.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, and Iraq

4964. Perilous Journeys: The Plight of North Koreans in China and Beyond

Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Scores of thousands of North Koreans have been risking their lives to escape their country's hardships in search of a better life, contributing to a humanitarian challenge that is playing out almost invisibly as the world focuses on North Korea's nuclear program. Only a little over 9,000 have made it to safety, mostly in South Korea but also in Japan, Europe and the U.S. Many more live in hiding from crackdowns and forcible repatriations by China and neighbouring countries, vulnerable to abuse and exploitation. If repatriated to the North, they face harsh punishment, possibly execution. China and South Korea have held back, even during the Security Council debate over post-test sanctions, from applying as much pressure as they might to persuade Pyongyang to reverse its dangerous nuclear policy, in part because they fear that the steady stream of North Koreans flowing into China and beyond would become a torrent if the North's economy were to collapse under the weight of tough measures. While there is marginally more hope Beijing will change its ways than Pyongyang, concerned governments can and must do far more to improve the situation of the border crossers.
Topic:
International Cooperation and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

4965. Chinese-Saudi Cooperation: Oil but also Missiles

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On April 22, two days after a reportedly unproductive meeting with President George W. Bush in Washington, President Hu Jintao of China will arrive in Saudi Arabia. Relations between the two countries are an increasingly important part of world diplomacy. In energy, China is the leading customer of Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter. On the military front, the kingdom bought now-obsolete ballistic missiles with a 1,500-mile range from China in the 1980s; the Saudis are reportedly interested in replacing them with more modern Chinese-designed missiles, perhaps with Pakistani nuclear warheads. Unlike his American visit, Hu's trip to the kingdom will unambiguously be given the status of a state visit. It is especially significant because King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia visited China as recently as January this year, the first visit by a Saudi monarch since diplomatic relations were established in 1990 and Abdullah's first trip outside the Middle East since becoming monarch last August. During the January meeting, five agreements covering economic cooperation trade and double taxation as well as an energy pact were signed. Energy is expected to be central to the latest talks, though a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman noted it was “not the only domain” of cooperation.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, America, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

4966. Poverty, Pro-Poor Growth and Mobility: A Decomposition Framework with Application to China

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper proposes a framework for incorporating longitudinal distributional changes into poverty decomposition. It is shown that changes in the Sen-Shorrocks-Thon index over time can be decomposed into two components—one component reflects the progressivity of income growth among the original poor, the other measures the extent of downward mobility experienced by the incumbent poor. The decomposition is applied to appraising poverty trends in China between 1988 and 1996. The results indicate that the proposed decomposition can complement the widely-used growthdistribution decomposition in providing insights into poverty dynamics.
Topic:
Development and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4967. China's Regional Inequality in Innovation Capability, 1995-2004

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Peilei Fan
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Relying on a recently developed decomposition framework, this paper explores spatial distribution of innovation capability in China. It is found that at the regional level, China's inequality in innovation capability increased from 1995 to 2004. At the provincial level, the inequality decreased from1995 to 2000, but increased from 2000 to 2004. Location, industrialization and urbanization, human capital, and openness (foreign direct investment) are significant contributors to the inequality in innovation capability. Unbalanced development in high-tech parks exerts a growing explanatory power in driving innovation disparity, which implies that institutional factor plays a direct role.
Topic:
Civil Society and Demographics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4968. Poverty Reduction in China: Trends and Causes

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Applying the Shapley decomposition to unit-record household survey data, this paper investigates the trends and causes of poverty in China in the 1990s. The changes in poverty trends are attributed to two proximate causes; income growth and shifts in relative income distribution. The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke measures are computed and decomposed, with different datasets and alternative assumptions about poverty lines and equivalence. Among the robust results are: (i) both income growth and favourable distributional changes can explain China's remarkable achievement in combating poverty in rural areas in the first half of the 1990s; (2) in the second half of the 1990s, both rural and urban China suffered from rapidly rising inequality and stagnant income growth, leading to a slow-down in poverty reduction, even reversal of poverty trend.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4969. Gender Wage Differentials in China's Urban Labour Market

Author:
Fang Cai and Meiyan Wang
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper describes and decomposes wage differences between female and male workers. The results indicate that females receive low wages because of unequal pay within sectors, and that the wage gap caused by the difference in sectoral attainment is small. The results also reveal that a lion's share of the wage differential between females and males is attributable to discrimination rather than to the human capital difference between the genders. Eliminating discriminations against females with a focus on intra-sectoral inequality is crucial for reducing female/male wage differentials.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4970. Gender Earnings Differentials and Regional Economic Development in Urban China, 1988-97

Author:
Ying Chu Ng
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Gender earnings differentials in urban China by region and their changes during the first decade of economic reform are examined. It is found that the female–male earnings ratio increased during the early stage of reform. The male earnings premium, overall, showed an increasing trend in the later stage of reform. Decomposition of the gender earnings differential reveals that a relatively lower percentage of the differential could be explained by gender differences in productive characteristics in the fast growing regions and in regions with a rapid pace of reform. The cross-sectional results highlight the possible existence of gender discrimination, particularly in the later stages of economic reform and development. Both market competition and the effects of wage decentralization play a role in shaping the gender earnings differentials. Gender earnings differentials varied by region and over time, generally in tandem with the pace of economic reform and development. The decomposition of the overtime changes in the earnings gap indicated that improvement in females' productive characteristics during the reform period constantly enhanced the earnings of females relative to those of males. The overtime changes in the returns to females' characteristics, however, work to counter any narrowing of the gender earnings gap.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4971. The Urban-Rural Income Gap and Inequality in China

Author:
Shi Li, Ximing Yue, Terry Sicular, and Björn Gustafsson
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using new household survey data for 1995 and 2002, we investigate the size of China's urban-rural income gap, the gap's contribution to overall inequality in China, and the factors underlying the gap. Our analysis improves on past estimates by using a fuller measure of income, adjusting for spatial price differences and including migrants. Our methods include inequality decomposition by population subgroup and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. Several key findings emerge. First, the adjustments substantially reduce China's urban-rural income gap and its contribution to inequality. Nevertheless, the gap remains large and has increased somewhat over time. Second, after controlling for household characteristics, location of residence remains the most important factor underlying the urban-rural income gap. The only household characteristic that contributes substantially to the gap is education. Differences in the endowments of, and returns to, other household characteristics such as family size and composition, landholdings, and communist party membership are relatively unimportant.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4972. Regional Inequality, Industry Agglomeration and Foreign Trade: The Case of China

Author:
Yin Ge
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
How do foreign trade and foreign direct investment affect regional inequality? Foreign trade and investment may affect internal economic geography, and the resulting industry agglomeration may contribute to regional inequality. This paper provides empirical evidence supporting this linkage. The results indicate that the increasing regional inequality in China has been accompanied by an increase in the degree of regional specialization and industry agglomeration. Foreign trade and foreign investment are closely related to industry agglomeration in China. Industries dependent on foreign trade and FDI are more likely to locate in regions with easy access to foreign markets, and exporting industries have a higher degree of agglomeration.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4973. The Public Distribution Systems of Foodgrains and Implications for Food Security: A Comparison of the Experiences of India and China

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Zhang-Yue Zhou
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A comparative study of the public distribution systems of foodgrains in India and China is expected to reveal lessons and experiences that are valuable to policymakers. This is particularly important for developing countries in their endeavour to ensure food security. This paper undertakes such an exercise. The main features and developments of the two public distribution systems are first highlighted. This is followed by a comparative analysis of their similarities and differences. The role of public foodgrain distribution systems in ensuring food security is then evaluated. Finally, policy implications are drawn.
Topic:
Human Welfare and Poverty
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

4974. Financial Development and Income Inequality in Rural China 1991-2000

Author:
Zhicheng Liang
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Financial development can exert a significant influence on the distribution of income. In this paper, using Chinese provincial data over the period of 1991-2000 and applying the generalized method of moment (GMM) techniques, we investigate the relationship between finance and inequality in rural China by testing alternative existing theories concerning the finance-inequality nexus. A negative and linear relationship between finance and inequality is found in our estimations. The empirical results show that financial development significantly reduces income inequality in post-reform rural China.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4975. Fiscal Decentralization and Political Centralization in China: Implications for Growth and Inequality

Author:
Xiaobo Zhang
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
China's current fiscal system is largely decentralized while its governance structure is rather centralized with strong top-down mandates and a homogenous governance structure. Due to large differences in initial economic structures and revenue bases, the implicit tax rate and fiscal burdens to support the functioning of local government vary significantly across jurisdictions. Regions initially endowed with a broader nonfarm tax base do not need to rely heavily on preexisting or new firms to finance public goods provision, thereby creating a healthy investment environment for the nonfarm sector to grow. In contrast, regions with agriculture as the major economic activity have little resources left for public investment after paying the expenses of bureaucracy. Consequently, differences in economic structures and fiscal burdens may translate into a widening regional gap.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4976. The Impacts of Growth and Inequality on Rural Poverty in China

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the evolution of poverty in China from the late 1980s to the late 1990s, employing a version of Shapley decomposition tailored to unit-record household survey data. The changes in poverty trends are attributed to two proximate causes— income growth and shifts in income distribution. Different datasets, poverty lines, poverty measures, and equivalence scales are used to examine the robustness of the results. Potential biases arising from ignoring differential regional prices and inflation are also investigated. Notwithstanding some ambiguities in the results, it is consistently found that rural poverty increased in the second half of the 1990s and adverse distributional changes are the main cause.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4977. The Inequality-Growth Nexus in the Short and Long Runs: Empirical Evidence from China

Author:
Guanghua Wan, Zhao Chen, and Ming Lu
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper argues that the conventional approach of data averaging is problematic for exploring the growth—inequality nexus. It introduces the polynomial inverse lag (PIL) framework so that the impacts of inequality on investment, education, and ultimately on growth can be measured at precisely defined time lags. Combining PIL with simultaneous systems of equations, we analyze the growth—inequality relationship in postreform China, finding that this relationship is nonlinear and is negative irrespective of time horizons.
Topic:
Civil Society, Development, and Education
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4978. Financial Development, Growth, and Regional Disparity in Post-Reform China

Author:
Zhicheng Liang
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Deepening financial development and rapid economic growth in China have been accompanied by widening income disparity between the coastal and inland regions. In this paper, by employing panel dataset for 29 Chinese provinces over the period of 1990-2001 and applying the generalized method of moment (GMM) techniques, we examine the impacts of financial development on China's growth performance. Our empirical results show that financial development significantly promotes economic growth in coastal regions but not in the inland regions; the weak finance-growth nexus in inland provinces may aggravate China's regional disparities.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4979. Spatial Convergence in China: 1952-99

Author:
Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Dong Guo, and Patricio Aroca
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to examine the convergence process in China by taking into account the spatial interaction between factors. The paper shows that there has been a dramatic increase in the spatial dependence of China's per capita GDP in the last 20 years. The consequence of space plays an important role, which is reflected in the influence of a neighbour's condition on the mobility of a province's income distribution from one category to another. The dynamics of the process showed evidence that China's distribution has gone from one of convergence to stratification, and from stratification to polarization.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4980. Financial Sector Development and Growth: The Chinese Experience

Author:
Mingming Zhou and Iftekhar Hasan
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper documents the financial and institutional developments of China during the past two decades, when China was successfully transformed from a rigid centralplanning economy to a dynamic market economy following its unique path. We empirically examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in China by employing a panel sample covering 31 Chinese provinces during the important transition period 1986-2002. Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, institutions, and instruments have been robustly associated with economic growth in China.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4981. Rethinking Import-substituting Industrialization: Development Strategies and Institutions in Taiwan and China

Author:
Tianbiao Zhu
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Conventional explanations of Taiwan and China's economic success point to the shift from an import-substituting industrialization (ISI) strategy to an export-oriented industrialization (EOI) strategy. This paper argues that the development strategies in Taiwan and China have always been a combination of ISI and EOI strategies during their entire miracle-creating period; far from the shift from ISI to EOI strategies, export promotion was used in both cases to sustain ISI, which has always been the central focus of development. Behind this strategy there is a set of institutions in both Taiwan and China, which has played a key role in supporting ISI, in particular, the government, the bank sector, public enterprises, and their relationship.
Topic:
Development and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia

4982. National Food Policies Impacting on Food Security: The Experience of India, a Large Populated Country

Author:
S.S. Acharya
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
India accounts for 16.7 per cent of the world's food consumers. With the exception of China, India's size in terms of food consumers is many times larger than the average size of the rest of the countries. At the time of independence in 1947, India was in the grip of a serious food crisis, which was accentuated by the partition of the country. The demand for food far exceeded supply, food prices were high and more than half of the population living below the poverty line with inadequate purchasing power. With high rates of population growth, the dependence on imported food increased further. However, the situation improved considerably after the mid-1960s, when new agricultural development strategy and food policies were adopted. The production of staple cereals increased substantially, mainly contributed by productivity improvements. The dependence on food imports decreased and the country became a marginal net exporter of cereals. There was also an improvement in physical and economic access of households to cereals and other nutritive food products. The proportion of households reporting hunger went down and the incidence of economic poverty reduced. This paper reviews the Indian approach to tackling the severe problem of food insecurity, which India faced immediately after independence. It reviews the evolution of food policy, the major policy instruments deployed, intervention in food marketing system, and the current status of food security/insecurity. The paper also identifies the lessons emerging from the experience of India. In developing countries characterized by large segments of the rural population dependent on food production for livelihood and by the high incidence of poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition, the strategy to improve food security must encompass programmes to increase food production that combine improved technology transfer, price support to food producers and supply of inputs at reasonable prices to farmers, improvements in food marketing system, employment generation, direct food assistance programmes, and improvement in the access to education and primary health care.
Topic:
Health and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

4983. Widening Gap of Educational Opportunity? A Longitudinal Study of Educational Inequality in China

Author:
Min-Dong Paul Lee
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study attempts to convey an accurate and dynamic account of educational inequality in China during the last decade. The study finds that there is clear evidence of rapid expansion of education, and younger students all over China are benefiting from the expansion. One of the most notable achievements is the virtual elimination of gender bias against girls in educational attainment. However, analysis of province-level school enrolment data over the last decade shows evidence of persistent regional inequality of educational attainment. Students from inland provinces continue to face strong structural inequality in educational opportunity, and this structural inequality becomes more pronounced as they progress to higher grades. Moreover, inter-cohort analysis reveals that the inter-provincial inequality in upper grades is increasing for younger cohort of students, meaning that educational inequality in China is deteriorating further. Lastly, a decomposition analysis shows that the causes of inter-provincial educational inequality are quite complex and cannot simply be explained by the urban-bias hypothesis that is often suggested as the main source of income inequality.
Topic:
Education, Human Rights, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4984. Development of Financial Intermediation and the Dynamics of Rural-Urban Inequality: China, 1978-98

Author:
Qi Zhang, Mingxing Liu, and Yiu Por Chen
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using China as a test case, this paper empirically investigates how the development of financial intermediation affects rural-urban income disparity (RUID). Using 20-year province level panel data, we find that the level of financial development is positively correlated with RUID. Examining two subperiods, 1978-88 and 1989-98, we test several competing hypotheses that may affect RUID. We find that the increase of RUID may be explained by fiscal policy during the first period and financial intermediates during the second period. In addition, we show that the direction of the Kuznets effect on RUID is sensitive to changes in government development policies. The rural development policies during the first period may have enhanced the rural development and reduced RUID. However, the financial intermediary policy during the second period focused on urban development and increased both urban growth and intra-urban inequalities, thus leading to an increase in RUID. Finally, we show that RUID is insensitive to the provincial industrial structure (the share of primary industry in GDP). These results are consistent with the traditional urban-bias hypothesis and are robust to the inclusion of controls for endogeneity issues. This study adds to the economic inequality literature by clarifying the effects of government policies on the underlying dynamics on convergent and divergent effects on rural-urban inequality.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4985. How Should We Measure Global Poverty in a Changing World?

Author:
Kuan Xu and Lars Osberg
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Before effective anti-poverty policy can be designed and implemented, the extent, trend and distribution of poverty must be identified. In this sense, poverty measurement is a crucial intermediate step in public policymaking and development planning. This paper asks whether the estimated proportion of the world's population with income below US$1 (adjusted according to purchasing power parity) per day is a good measure of trends in global poverty. We argue that the answer depends on two important issues in the measurement of poverty—the definition of the poverty line, and how best to summarize the level of poverty In this paper, we survey the literature on poverty measurement, demonstrate the importance of considering poverty incidence, depth and inequality jointly, present a simple but powerful graphical representation of the Sen and SST indices of poverty intensity (the poverty box) which is the FGT index of order 1 and extend our empirical work to China using the commonly accepted international poverty line definition of one half median equivalent income.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4986. Poverty Accounting by Factor Components: With an Empirical Illustration Using Chinese Data

Author:
Guanghua Wan
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to develop two poverty decomposition frameworks and to illustrate their applicability. A given level of poverty is broadly decomposed into an overall inequality component and an overall endowment component in terms of income or consumption determinants or input factors. These components are further decomposed into finer components associated with individual inputs. Also, a change in poverty is decomposed into components attributable to the growth and redistributions of factor inputs. An empirical illustration using Chinese data highlights the importance of factor redistributions in determining poverty levels and poverty changes in rural China.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4987. Threshold Estimation on the Globalization-Poverty Nexus: Evidence from China

Author:
Zhicheng Liang
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
China has experienced rapid integration into the global economy and achieved remarkable progress in poverty reduction over the last two decades. In this paper, by employing panel data covering twenty-five Chinese provinces over the period of 1986- 2002, and applying the endogenous threshold regression techniques, we empirically investigate the globalization-poverty nexus in China, paying particular attention to the nonlinearity of the impact of globalization on the poor. Estimation results provide strong evidence to suggest that there exists a threshold in the relationship between globalization and poverty: globalization is good for the poor only after the economy has reached a certain threshold level of globalization.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4988. Development Strategy, Viability, and Economic Institutions: The Case of China

Author:
Mingxing Liu, Pengfei Zhang, Shiyuan Pan, and Justin Yifu Lin
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explores the politically determined development objectives and the intrinsic logic of government intervention policies in east developed countries. It is argued that the distorted institutional structure in China and in many least developed countries, after the Second World War, can be largely explained by government adoption of inappropriate development strategies. Motivated by nation building, most least-developed countries, including the socialist countries, adopted a comparative advantage defying strategy to accelerate the growth of capital-intensive, advanced sectors in their countries. In the paper we also statistically measure the evolution of government development strategies and the economic institutions in China from 1950s to 1980s to show the co-existence and coevolution of government adoption of comparative advantage defying strategy and the trinity system.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4989. Economic Development Strategy, Openness and Rural Poverty: A Framework and China's Experiences

Author:
Justin Yifu Lin and Peilin Liu
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper argues that both openness and poverty in a country are endogenously determined by the country's long-term economic development strategy. Development strategies can be broadly divided into two mutually exclusive groups: (i) the comparative advantage-defying (CAD) strategy, which attempts to encourage firms to deviate from the economy's existing comparative advantages in their entry into an industry or choice of technology; and (ii) the comparative advantage-following (CAF) strategy, which attempts to facilitate the firms' entry into an industry or choice of technology according to the economy's existing comparative advantages.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4990. Globalization and the Urban Poor in China

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Yin Zhang
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the distributional impact of globalization on the poor in urban China. Employing the kernel density estimation technique, we recovered from irregularly grouped household survey data the income distribution for 29 Chinese provinces for 1988-2001. Panels of the income shares of the poorest 20, 10 and 5 per cent of the urban residents were then compiled. In a fixed-effect model, two of the central conclusions of Dollar and Kraay (2002)—that 'the incomes of the poor rise equi-proportionately with average income' and that trade openness has little distributional effect on poverty—were revisited. Our results lend little support to either of the Dollar-Kraay conclusions, but instead indicate that average income growth is associated with worsening income distribution while globalization in general, and trade openness in particular, raises the income shares of the poor. It is also found that openness to trade and openness to FDI have differential distributional effects. The beneficial effect of trade was not restricted to the coastal provinces only, but also weakened significantly after 1992. These findings are robust to allow for nonlinearity in the effect of globalization and to control for the influence of several other variables.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4991. International Finance and the Developing World: The Next Twenty Years

Author:
Tony Addison
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Much has changed in international finance in the twenty years since UNU-WIDER was founded. This paper identifies five broad contours of what we might expect in the next twenty years: the flow of capital from ageing societies to the more youthful economies of the South; the growth in the financial services industry in emerging economies and the consequences for their capital flows; the current strength in emerging market debt, and whether this represents a change in fundamentals or merely the effect of low global interest rates; the impact of globalization in goods markets in lowering inflation expectations, and therefore global bond yields; and the implications of the adjustment in global imbalances between Asia (in particular China) and the United States for emerging bond markets as a whole. The paper ends by noting the paradox that today we see ever larger amounts of capital flowing across the globe in search of superior investment returns, and yet the financing needs of the poorer countries are still largely unmet.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

4992. China and Iran: Mismatched Partners

Author:
John Calabrese
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
China and Iran are important geopolitical actors as well as major players in the global energy market. In recent years, the Sino-Iranian relationship has broadened and deepened. Energy cooperation is the main axis around which this partnership revolves. As a result, China is a stakeholder in the outcome of the diplomatic crisis that has been brewing over the Iranian nuclear program. The relationship between China and Iran deserves careful scrutiny, not the least because their strategic motivations remain ambiguous and their dealings with each other lack transparency.
Topic:
Security and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
China and Iran

4993. The Korean War June-October 1950: Inchon and Stalin in the "Trigger vs. Justification"; Debate

Author:
Tan Kwoh Jack
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
China's decision to enter the Korean War in 1950 is a historical puzzle: why would China, a much weaker country, enter into a military confrontation with the United States, a superpower? The rationale for Chairman Mao Zedong's intervention in Korea carries strategic lessons for the contemporary crisis on the Korean Peninsula, as well as for Sino-American relations. Utilizing newly declassified Russian documents made available at the Cold War International History Project from 1994- 2004, this paper critically assesses this new evidence concurrently with the existing literature that has emerged so far, and seeks to contribute to the “trigger vs. justification” debate surrounding China'sentry. Three shortcomings of this debate are identified: 1) whether Mao would have intervened had the US military stopped at the 38 th parallel is difficult to determine; 2) Mao' s vacillations up till the very last minute cast doubt on the justification argument i.e. offensive intervention driven by revolutionary ideology and politics; and 3) as a result, this ignores the complex dimensions of decision-making and interaction between Stalin and the Chinese leadership, as well as within the Chinese leadership itself. This paper argues that one significant variable overlooked heretofore is the American landings at Inchon on 19 September 1950. This is followed by in-depth analyses of the following three main interactions that Inchon engendered – 1) the policy shifts within the Truman administration; 2) the Stalin-Mao manoeuvres; and 3) the debates and dilemmas within the Chinese Politburo. This paper concludes that it was Inchon, along with additional pressure from Stalin, and not the crossing of the 38 th parallel, that triggered China's eventual entry into Korea.
Topic:
Security and War
Political Geography:
China and Asia

4994. Environmental Management and Conflict in Southeast Asia – Land Reclamation and its Political Impact

Author:
Kog Yue-Choong
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Land-scarce Singapore has no choice but to carry out massive reclamation to cope with its population growth and economic development. The ability for Singapore to continue to carry out its reclamation to enlarge its territory is tied to its survival as a competitive economy. Land reclamation works have been carried out in Singapore since the late 19th century when Singapore was a British colony. After Singapore was separated from Malaysia in 1965, massive land reclamation has been ongoing almost non-stop since then without giving rise to any dispute with its neighbours. Dredged sea sand has been used for reclamation in Singapore long ago, initially the sea sand come from seabed within Singapore's territory and later from Malaysia and Indonesia. But for the first time in 2002, such reclamation works have figured in volatile ties between Singapore and Malaysia when Malaysia protested vehemently about the trans-boundary environmental impact of Singapore's reclamation works. At the same time, Indonesian leaders imposed an export ban of sea sand from Indonesia to Singapore because they felt that sea sand was being shipped to enlarge Singapore's territory at environmental costs that surpassed the economic benefits from selling the sand. This paper will review the reclamation efforts by Singapore and the perceived threat that it poses to neighbouring countries including Malaysia and Indonesia in the context of the concerns over environmental degradation, territorial rights and the tensions engendered in the relations among these countries. This paper will argue that the dispute between Singapore and Malaysia as well as Singapore and Indonesia should not be securitised. Instead, such non-traditional security issues should be viewed as 'desecuritised'. This need is particularly acute in this uncertain time because of the threats of terrorism and the challenge of escalation in economic rivalry brought about by globalisation and the opening of China and India.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:
China, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore, and Southeast Asia

4995. The New Energy Security: 2005 Global Oil and Gas Forum

Author:
John A. Riggs
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Energy security means different things to different countries. Importing countries primarily focus on supply. Since the oil price shocks of the 1970s, the focus of energy security has been on achieving adequate supplies at reasonable prices, without incurring serious disruptions. Recent high prices have intensified this concern and renewed interest in policies to bring prices down.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, and Oil
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, India, Asia, and Saudi Arabia

4996. Soft Power, Hard Issues: Reports of the 2005 Aspen Institute Roundtable on Public Diplomacy and the Middle East and the Forum on Communications and Society

Author:
Shanthi Kalathil
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Having lapsed in importance following the end of the Cold War, public diplomacy has reemerged as a focal point for policymakers, scholars, and practitioners. Particularly following the attacks of September 11, 2001, American public diplomacy in the Middle East has rocketed to a place of prominence in the U.S. foreign policy toolkit. Yet even as resources and attention are trained on refining the U.S. public diplomacy strategy, there is little consensus on core problems, effective solutions, and what success might tangibly look like.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia

4997. Reforming U.S. Patent Policy: Getting the Incentives Right

Author:
Keith E. Mascus
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
America's robust economic competitiveness is du e in no small part to a large capacity for innovation. That capacity is imperiled, however, by an increasingly overprotective patent system. Over the past twenty-five years, American legislators and judges have operated on the principle that stronger patent protection engenders more innovation. This principle is misguided. Although intellectual property rights (IPR) play an important role in innovation, the recent increase in patent protection has not spurred innovation so much as it has impeded the development and use of new technologies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, and America

4998. North Korea's Nuclear Test: The Fallout

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The North Korean nuclear standoff entered an even more troubling phase with Pyongyang's test of a nuclear device on 9 October 2006. Condemnation was nearly universal, and the UN Security Council moved quickly to pass Resolution 1718 unanimously less than a week later. The test stirred China to take an unusually strong line against its ally, joining UN sanctions and dispatching a senior envoy to Pyongyang. On 31 October, after talks in Beijing with the U.S. and China, Pyongyang agreed to return to the six-party talks. The resumption of a diplomatic process is welcome but will likely face the same pitfalls as earlier rounds in which progress was undermined by a lack of clear understandings between North Korea and the U.S. While the six-party talks are a useful forum, resolving the nuclear issue will also require committed bilateral negotiations that address in detail North Korea's security concerns and U.S. demands for complete disarmament and intrusive verification. China's strong response may prove to be a major new factor pressing North Korea to offer more concessions in the talks, but only if the U.S. is prepared to set the table with a far more specific and appetizing menu than it has thus far.
Topic:
Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, North Korea, and Pyongyang

4999. China: Toward a Consumption-Driven Growth Path

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
In December 2004 China's top political leadership agreed to fundamentally alter the country's growth strategy. In place of investment and export-led development, they endorsed transitioning to a growth path that relied more on expanding domestic consumption. Since 2004, China's top leadership, most notably Premier Wen Jiaobao in his speech to the National People's Congress in the spring of 2006, has reiterated the goal of strengthening domestic consumption as a major source of economic growth. This policy brief examines the reasons underlying the leadership decision, the implications of this transition for the United States and the global economy, and the steps that have been taken to embark on the new growth path.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

5000. East of the Middle East: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and U.S. security implications

Author:
Tim Murphy
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
The war in Afghanistan represented an eastward shift in the United States' international focus. Previously concentrated on the Middle East, the United States has reconfigured its foreign policy directives to include interests east of the Middle East. The shift was long overdue. Central Asia is a rising regional security concern, and Chinese and Russian actions therein have cultivated robust political ties. Resulting cooperatives and agreements promote Chinese and Russian regional objectives. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) originally consisted of five Central Asian and Asian countries (the Shanghai Five), ostensibly to unify signatories on economic, social and political platforms. However, the SCO is often a proxy to advance Chinese and Russian interests.
Topic:
Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia