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101. The Klein Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Polemics

Author:
Johan Norberg
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Naomi Klein's The Shock Doctrine ;purports to be an exposé of the ruthless nature of free-market capitalism and its chief recent exponent, Milton Friedman. Klein argues that capitalism goes hand in hand with dictatorship and brutality and that dictators and other unscrupulous political figures take advantage of "shocks"-catastrophes real or manufactured-to consolidate their power and implement unpopular market reforms. Klein cites Chile under General Augusto Pinochet, Britain under Margaret Thatcher, China during the Tiananmen Square crisis, and the ongoing war in Iraq as examples of this process.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Chile

102. Preventing the Tragedy of the CO2 Commons: Exploring China's Growth and the International Climate Framework

Author:
Peter J. Wilcoxen, Warwick J. McKibbin, and Wing Thye Woo
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence. The business-as-usual (BAU) growth path of the world economy might increase concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases to unsafe levels and cause significant negative environmental feedback before China achieves parity in living standards with the OECD countries. We use a dynamic multi-country general equilibrium model (the G-Cubed Model) to project a realistic BAU trajectory of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and we find it to be even above the CO2 emissions from the high-growth scenario estimated by the Energy Information Agency in 2007. This outcome is a reminder that it has been usual so far to underestimate the growth in China energy consumption.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, and Markets
Political Geography:
China, Europe, India, and Asia

103. Building on Kyoto: towards a realistic global climate agreement

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Peter J. Wilcoxen
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As a mechanism for controlling climate change, the Kyoto Protocol has not been a success. Over the decade from its signing in 1997 to the beginning of its first commitment period in 2008, greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial countries subject to targets under the protocol did not fall as the protocol intended. Instead, emissions in many countries rose rapidly. It is now abundantly clear that as a group, the countries bound by the protocol have little chance of achieving their Kyoto targets by the end of the first commitment period in 2012. Moreover, emissions have increased substantially as well in countries such as China, which were not bound by the protocol but which will eventually have to be part of any serious climate change regime.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
China

104. China can grow and still help prevent the tragedy of the carbon dioxide commons

Author:
Warwick McKibbin, Peter J. Wilcoxen, and Wing Thye Woo
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Under reasonable assumptions, China could achieve parity in living standard with Western Europe by 2100, and India by 2150. Climate change, however, may be a key obstacle preventing such a convergence. The business-as-usual (BAU) growth path of the world might increase concentration of atmospheric to unsafe levels and cause significant negative environmental feedback before China achieves parity in living standards with the OECD countries. We use a dynamic multi-country general equilibrium model (the G-Cubed Model) to project a realistic BAU trajectory of CO2 emissions, and we find it to be even above the CO2 emissions from the high-growth scenario estimated by the Energy Information Agency in 2007. This outcome is a reminder that it has been usual so far to underestimate the growth in China energy consumption.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Environment, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia

105. China-Russia Relations

Author:
Yu Bin
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The third quarter of 2008 was quite eventful for Russia and China as well as their bilateral relationship. The 29th Summer Olympics in Beijing opened and concluded with extravaganza and a record 51 gold medals for China. Shortly before the opening ceremony on Aug. 8, Georgia's attacks against South Ossetia – a separatist region of Georgia – led to Russia's massive military response, a five-day war, and Russia's recognition of their independence. Thus, the August guns and games brought the two strategic partners back to the world stage. One consequence of the Georgian-Russian war is that China's “neutrality” is widely seen as a crisis in China's strategic partnership with Russia.
Topic:
Security and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Beijing, and Georgia

106. From bear to bull? Sub-Saharan Africa and Global Capital Markets

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
The current boom in global commodity prices and the expansion of Chinese interests in sub-Saharan Africa are part of a general warming of external investors to the region. This policy brief examines trends in commercial financial instruments such as equities, bonds and commercial bank lending and their impact on economic development. It reviews the nature and behaviour of these instruments in developing countries compared with more traditional development finance, such as foreign aid. This provides a foundation for analysing past and present trends in sub-Saharan Africa. It is argued that, like many other low income countries in the past, sub-Saharan Africa has received negligible inflows of external commercial financing. If anything, the region has been additionally excluded from these flows due to very weak levels of financial sector development even compared to other low income countries. At the same time, recent changes in global and domestic conditions mean that the situation is evolving rapidly. There is mounting evidence to show that many economies in sub-Saharan Africa are enjoying significantly expanded access to commercial external capital flows. Given good prospects that this trend will continue, the playing field for traditional donors is likely to alter significantly. The brief concludes by reflecting on how donors might respond to these emerging policy challenges.
Topic:
Development, Markets, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Africa and China

107. Breaking the Suicide Pact: U.S.–China Cooperation on Climate Change

Author:
William Chandler
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The United States and China seemingly remain locked in a climate suicide pact, each arguing the other is the reason for inaction. U.S.–China climate cooperation is urgently needed to avert climate disaster. The current situation of the energy sectors in the United States and China offers a solution. China and the United States can set and cooperate to achieve national goals and implement enforceable measures. If this U.S.– China policy experiment works, China and the United States could develop packages of policies and measures, test them for efficacy, correct them, and share them with other countries.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

108. What does a free-trade area of the Asia-Pacific mean to China

Author:
Warwick McKibbin and Tingsong Jiang
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
A Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) has been proposed as a long-term prospect by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). This paper examines the impact of the FTAAP on the national and regional economies in China using a suite of general equilibrium models: APG-Cubed, a dynamic global model; GTAP, a static global model; and CERD, a static China model with regional dimension. The impact on the Chinese economy of the APFTA is also compared with those of other forms of FTAs such as the ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) and the East Asia FTA (EAFTA).
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific

109. China's Exports in ICT and its Impact on Asian Countries

Author:
Yuqing Xing
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses China's ICT exports grow thin its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia's exports.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand

110. Country Economic Forecasts: China

Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
A turn in the domestic investment cycle has been coupled with a dramatic slowdown in external demand, leaving China weathering storms on both fronts. But with the government announcing an unprecedented fiscal package and with fewer structural problems to contend with than in earlier downturns, China is likely to fare better than in previous domestically-driven slowdowns such as in the early-1980s and 1990s.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

111. Regional energy security: An elusive objective?

Author:
Stuart Harris
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian National University Department of International Relations
Abstract:
Energy issues are a central feature of economic and political debate. The debate focuses not only on the growing regional energy demands from China and India, but also on the cyclical and structural factors in the international energy market that are significant and that lead to considerable uncertainties about energy accessibility, prices and supply reliability. For the Asian region, considerations of supply security are increasingly part of global energy security concerns. The global debate about long-term resource availability and supply, particularly of oil and gas, centres on the questions of whether adequate resources will exist to meet growing global demands in the next twenty-plus years, or whether the resources are adequate but will not be brought to market because of underinvestment and related higher costs in the oil and gas industry. Options for alternative supply sources and alternative fuels are, at the same time, becoming constrained by concerns about the impacts on climate change and, in the case of biofuels, on food and feed supplies. Adjustments to the expected continuing increases in energy trend prices will be generally difficult for developed countries, including Australia, but especially so for developing countries including those in Asia.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

112. China's Quest for Alternative to Neo-liberalism: Market Reform, Economic Growth, and Labour

Author:
Dic Lo
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Since the turn of the century, China's state and society have focused their efforts on “constructing a harmonious society”. Viewed from the perspective of globalization, these efforts represent a quest for a model of development that deviates fundamentally from neo-liberalism. In particular, state policies and institutional reforms in recent years have tended to target at labor compensation-enhancing economic growth, rather than growth based on “cheap labor”. This paper seeks to clarify the nature of the emerging Chinese economic development model, and, on that basis, to analyze its efficiency and welfare attributes. In conjunction with an analysis of China's economic growth path, which seems to have undergone a transition from labor-intensive growth to capital-deepening growth, it is argued that the new development model does represent a more feasible and desirable pursuit than neo-liberalism. The paper concludes with a discussion on the impact of this new Chinese development model on the future direction of globalization.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia

113. Income Distribution: Effects on Growth and Development

Author:
Nancy Birdsall
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
I review the literature on the effects of inequality on growth and development in the developing world. Two stylized facts emerge from empirical studies: inequality is more likely to harm growth in countries at low levels of income (below about $3200 per capita in 2000 dollars); and it is at high levels of inequality (at or above a Gini coefficien t of .45) that a negative association emerges. Between 15 and 40 percent of the developing world's population lives in countries with these characteristics, depending on the inclusion of China, whose level of inequality has recently been measured at almost .45. Theory and evidence suggest that high inequality affects growth: (1) through interaction with incomplete and underdeveloped markets for capital and information; (2) by discouraging the evolution of the economic and political institutions associated with accountable government (which in turn enable a market environment conducive to investment and growth); and (3) by undermining the civic and social life that sustains effective collective decision-making.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Markets
Political Geography:
China

114. Entrepreneurship and Political Guanxi Networks in China's Private Sector

Author:
Christopher A. McNally, Hong Guo, and Guangwei Hu
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Since the mid-1990s the Chinese government has rapidly liberalized the environment facing domestic private firms. As a consequence, many private firms have clarified their ownership relations and acquired stronger organizational boundaries. However, despite this formalization of private sector institutions, informal guanxi networks remain a key component in firm success. Most significant among these guanxi networks are political networks that connect private entrepreneurs with actors in China's political sphere.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Israel

115. The Role of China in Asia: Engine, Conduit, or Steamroller?

Author:
Beth Anne Wilson, Jane T. Haltmaier, Shaghil Ahmed, Brahima Coulibaly, Ross Knippenberg, Sylvain Leduc, and Mario Marazzi
Publication Date:
09-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper assesses China's role in Asia as an independent engine of growth, as a conduit of demand from the industrial countries, and as a competitor for export markets. We provide both macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence. The macroeconomic analysis focuses on the impact of U.S. and Chinese demand on the output of the Asian economies by estimating growth comovements and VARs. The results suggest an increasing role of China as an independent source of growth. The microeconomic analysis decomposes trade into basic products, parts and components, and finished goods. We find a large role for parts and components trade consistent with China playing an important and increasing role as a conduit. We also estimate some regressions that show that China's increasing presence in export markets has had a negative effect on exports of some products for some other Asian economies, but not for other products, including those of the important electronic high-technology industry.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

116. North Korea's External Economic Relations

Author:
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
North Korea's international transactions have grown since the 1990s famine period. Illicit transactions appear to account for a declining share of trade. Direct investment is rising, but the county remains significantly dependent on aid to finance imports. Interdependence with South Korea and China is rising, but the nature of integration with these two partners is very different: China's interaction with North Korea appears to be increasingly on market-oriented terms, while South Korea's involvement has a growing noncommercial or aid component. These patterns have implications for North Korea's development, the effectiveness of UN sanctions, and its bargaining behavior in nuclear negotiations.
Topic:
Markets and United Nations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and North Korea

117. Chinese Poverty: Assessing the Impact of Alternative Assumptions

Author:
Sanjay Reddy and Camelia Minoiu
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:
This paper investigates how estimates of the extent and trend of consumption poverty in China between 1990 and 2001 vary as a result of alternative plausible assumptions concerning the poverty line and estimated levels of consumption. The exercise is motivated by the existence of considerable uncertainty about the appropriate poverty lines to apply and the level and distribution of resources in China. The methodology of this paper focuses on the following sources of variation: alternative purchasing power parity conversion factors (used to convert an international poverty line), alternative estimates of the level and distribution of private incomes, alternative estimates of the propensity to consume of lower income groups, and alternative consumer price indices. It is widely believed that substantial poverty reduction has taken place in China in the 1990s, and we find this conclusion to be robust to the choice of assumptions. However, estimates of the extent of Chinese poverty in any year are greatly influenced by the assumptions made. China's record of reducing consumption poverty is dramatic. It is unclear whether this achievement has been comparable across regions and whether there have been corresponding national improvements in other aspects of human well-being.
Topic:
Markets, Political Economy, and Poverty
Political Geography:
China

118. Flying Geese or Sitting Ducks: China's Impact on the Trading Fortunes of other Asian Economies

Author:
Alan J. Ahearne, John G. Fernald, John W. Schindler, and Prakash Loungani
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper updates our earlier work (Ahearne, Fernald, Loungani and Schindler, 2003) on whether China, with its huge pool of labor and an allegedly undervalued exchange rate, is hurting the export performance of other emerging market economies in Asia. We continue to find that while exchange rates matter for export performance, the income growth of trading partners matters far more. This suggests the potential for exports of all Asian economies to grow in harmony as long as global growth is strong. We also examine changes in export shares of Asian economies to the U.S. market and find evidence that dramatic changes in shares are taking place. Many of these changes are consistent with a 'flying geese' pattern in which China moves into the product space vacated by the Asian NIEs or with greater integration of trade across Asia in the production of final goods. Nevertheless, China's dramatic gains in recent years do increase the pressure on Asian economies, particularly in ASEAN and South Asia, to seek areas of comparative advantage.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and Asia

119. Challenges for China's Public Spending

Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
China's evolution from a centrally-planned to a market-based economy is leading to major transformations of its public expenditure policies. Much progress has been made in raising infrastructure spending to a level more in line with China's development needs and in modernising mechanisms for budget planning and implementation. Nevertheless, significant challenges remain.
Topic:
Development, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia

120. The Emergence of a New 'Socialist' Market Labour Regime in China

Author:
Gunter Schucher and Jutta Hebel
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
China's transition to a market economy has been a process of basic institutional changes and institution building. The institutional change from a socialist labour regime (SLR) as one of the backbones upholding the traditional leninist system to a new 'socialist' market labour regime (SMLR) became particularly important for the success of economic and political reforms. This analysis is based on the analytical framework of regimes and makes use of the idea of path dependence. An ensemble of institutions, mutually interconnected and influencing each other, forms the regime and shapes its trajectory. Six institutions are identified to constitute the employment regime: (1) the system of social control, (2) the production system, (3) the system of industrial relations, (4) the welfare system, (5) the family order, and (6) the educational system. The SMLR is still characterised by its socialist past and differs from other varieties of transformation labour regimes and bears little resemblance to labour regimes in Western market economies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
China and Asia