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61. Stirring up the South China Sea

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The conflicting mandates and lack of coordination among Chinese government agencies, many of which strive to increase their power and budget, have stoked tensions in the South China Sea. Repeated proposals to establish a more centralised mechanism have foundered while the only agency with a coordinating mandate, the foreign ministry, does not have the authority or resources to manage other actors. The Chinese navy\'s use of maritime tensions to justify its modernisation, and nationalist sentiment around territorial claims, further compound the problem. But more immediate conflict risks lie in the growing number of law enforcement and paramilitary vessels playing an increasing role in disputed territories without a clear legal framework. They have been involved in most of the recent incidents, including the prolonged standoff between China and the Philippines in April 2012 in Scarborough Reef. Any future solution to the South China Sea disputes will require a consistent policy from China executed uniformly throughout the different levels of government along with the authority to enforce it.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Markets, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
China and Israel

62. Rising Democracies and the Arab Awakening: Implications for Global Democracy and Human Rights

Author:
Ted Piccone and Emily Alinikoff
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
As the emerging global order takes shape, debate is growing more intense around the trajectory of the rising powers and what their ascendency to positions of regional and international influence means for the United States, its traditional allies, and global governance more broadly. Commentary about these rising powers— often referred to in a generic way as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) but actually encompassing a dozen or so countries largely represented in the G-20—ranges from alarmist to sanguine. Pessimists argue that China, with its impressive economic growth and increasingly global reach, is well-positioned to challenge the United States' role of global superpower and to weaken the commitment of other rising powers, and various international organizations, to liberal values. More optimistic analysts insist that the rise of middle powers, most of which are democracies of varying stripes, bodes well for the world: millions are being lifted out of poverty, rule of law is taking hold and the international system is bound to be a more inclusive, representative one.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Arabia

63. Rising Tensions Over China's Monopoly on Rare Earths?

Author:
Jane Nakano
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The United States, Japan, and the European Union—the three key consumers of Chinese rare earth materials—formally complained to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in March about Chinese restrictions on its rare earth exports. Several weeks later, China announced the establishment of a 150-plus member association with the official aim of promoting sustainable development within this sector. Some analysts wonder if this is part of a Chinese plan to circumvent international complaints by instituting an oligopolistic arrangement to control its rare earth exports. Others ask if this could be another step in an escalating dispute with China over the global supply of rare earth materials.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, and Europe

64. False Hopes for Chinese Economic "Integration"

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In a recent online article in Foreignpolicy.com, regular columnist and head of the Economic Strategy Institute, Clyde Prestowitz, argued that the next president of the World Bank should be Zhou Xiaochuan, Chairman of the People's Bank of China. For Prestowitz, it was not just Zhou's excellent credentials that made him ideal for the position, but also the fact that he is Chinese. China is accurately accused of “gaming” the global economic liberal order through its currency policies, restricted market access for outside firms and governments, and internal intervention in the economy to the detriment of foreign firms. But Prestowitz believes that such an appointment would significantly encourage China to behave as a “responsible stakeholder.” Behind this thinking is the argument that the more power, prestige, and authority China accumulates within the existing order, the more liberal Chinese economic policies will become.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
China

65. US Agricultural Exports to ASEAN Grow - But Face Competition

Author:
Michael McConnell
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
ASEAN countries have long been an important international market for US agricultural exports. The United States, in 2011, exported almost $9.6 billion of agricultural products to ASEAN, making it the sixth-largest export destination for US farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses—behind Japan ($14 billion) and just behind the European Union ($9.6 billion), but well ahead of South Korea ($7 billion). Moreover, the value of agricultural trade between the United States and ASEAN almost doubled between 2007 and 2011, with the top four ASEAN markets in 2011 for the United States being Indonesia ($2.8 billion), the Philippines ($2.1 billion), Vietnam ($1.7 billion), and Thailand ($1.3 billion). With a population of 614 million and strong economic growth, it is expected that ASEAN will continue to be an important market for US agricultural products. However, the United States is likely to face increasing competition, particularly from China, Australia, and New Zealand, all of which have free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN.
Topic:
Agriculture, Demographics, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Food
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, East Asia, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand

66. America's Voluntary Standards System—A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

67. EIU: Global outlook summary

Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The global economy remains in precarious shape. Europe's debt crisis rages on, and although the euro appears to have survived its most recent test in the form of the Greek election on June 17th, austerity and financial-market uncertainty are depressing economic activity in Europe and, by extension, in much of the rest of the world. The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to expect global GDP growth to slow in 2012, and while our forecasts for the G3 economies—the US, euro zone and China—are essentially unchanged this month, we have cut our projections for Brazil and India.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, India, and Brazil

68. Perspectives on the G20: The Los Cabos Summit and Beyond

Author:
James A. Haley
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The G20 leaders meeting in Los Cabos confront a number of challenges. Most prominent among these is the state of the global economy, which remains dangerously unbalanced, and in which the balance of risks is clearly weighted on the downside. These risks emanate from several sources.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China

69. Adjusting to China: A Challenge to the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Author:
Martin Neil Baily
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
During an "exit interview" with the Wall Street Journal, departing National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers argued that history would judge the United States based on how well we adjust to China's emergence as a great power, economically and politically. In the face of China's progress, America's manufacturing sector faces major challenges in becoming and remaining competitive and our choice of national economic policies will affect how well we meet those challenges. It is essential that the U.S. trade deficit not balloon as the economy recovers. There is scope to expand our exports in services and agriculture, but improving the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing is vital.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and America

70. Toxic Legacy: Hunger, Oppression, Migration, and Health in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Author:
Leonard S. Rubenstein
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
During the 1990s, economic mismanagement, political oppression, natural disaster, and loss of external subsidies after the end of communism led to a calamitous decrease in food production in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). The public health infrastructure, including water and sanitation systems, drug distribution and supply chains, and local clinics and hospitals, also deteriorated. At least half a million people died of starvation and millions more suffered acute or chronic malnutrition. Malnutrition increased vulnerability to disease at a time when the health system was incapable of effective response. Fifeen years later, neither health nor the food systems have recovered as the economy persistently stagnates. Health continues to be a low priority for the government. The availability of food is insufficient to meet population needs, hospitals and clinics are significantly ill-equipped, the medical workforce lacks appropriate training, and corruption in drug distribution is pervasive. Malnutrition and anemia, as well as diseases associated with poor sanitation, remain widespread. Over the last few years, DPRK has begun to accept international assistance to address health system needs, most notably to vaccinate children. Although these initiatives address some infrastructure needs, the continued centralized control of health and the lack of open discussion about key issues renders the possibility of reforms sufficient to meet the health needs of the people of North Korea dim. During the economic crisis, tens of thousands of North Koreans migrated to China despite harsh measures imposed by both governments to restrict border crossing and a refusal by China to give legal status to the migrants. To a limited extent, migration ameliorated the health impact of the crisis by stimulating illicit cross-border trade and informal markets that increased some North Koreans' access to food. Even after a disastrous effort by the DPRK government to shut the markets down in 2009, they are re-emerging. China's encouragement of these markets, along with regularizing the status of migrants in China, could advance its own economic interests as well as contributing to improving the health of North Koreans.
Topic:
Communism, Economics, Health, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Israel, and North Korea

71. Tradition in Chinese politics: The Party-state's reinvention of the past and the critical response from public intellectuals

Author:
Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This study discusses the role of history and tradition in the legitimization of the state in the People's Republic of China. In Chinese political debate, history has traditionally been the most important source of argumentation. Today, the Party-state is reinventing history and tradition to bolster its legitimacy, but the project has met with opposition. This study introduces and analyzes the related debate, ongoing among various actors in different public fora in China, and engaged in both by those affiliated with the Party-state and those outside the establishment.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
China

72. Growth and Recovery in a Time of Default: Lessons from the Role of the Urban Sector in Argentina

Author:
Michael Cohen
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
International narratives on Argentina's recovery from the crisis of 2001-02 tend to emphasize the role of rising commodity prices and growing demand from China. Argentina is said to have been 'lucky', saved by global demand for its agricultural exports. The international narrative has also been used by local agricultural exporters to justify their objections against higher export taxes during periods of high commodity prices. These narratives are not correct. Data on the country's recovery show that it was not led by agricultural exports but was fuelled by urban demand and production. When the Convertibility period ended and the peso was devalued in 2002, price increases for imports stimulated the production of domestic goods and services for consumers. This production in turn generated multiplier effects which supported small and medium-sized firms and helped to create many new jobs. This later produced a revival of the construction and then the manufacturing sectors as well.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Argentina, and Latin America

73. The Elephant in the "Green Room": China and the Doha Round

Author:
Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, and Francis Ng
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The puzzle about the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is not why it is on life support now but how it has survived as a viable multilateral initiative for so long. From the very beginning, it was clear that the Round suffered from a lack of private-sector interest, the engine that had driven previous rounds of successful trade negotiations. At most, Doha promised to deliver some security of access for unilateral liberalization previously undertaken by countries and some modest incremental market opening (Martin and Mattoo 2009; Hufbauer, Schott, and Wong 2010). That the Round had much to be modest about was reflected in the failure of even antiglobalization protesters to show up for the more recent meetings of the Doha Round.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China

74. Who Captures Value in Global Supply Chains?

Author:
Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Petri Rouvinen, Timo Seppälä, and Pekka Ylä-Anttila
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Available statistics tell us little about the economic consequences of increasing global dispersion of production processes. In order to shed light on the issue, we perform grass roots detective work to uncover the geography of value added in the case of a Nokia N95 smartphone circa 2007. The phone was assembled in Finland and China. In the case when the device was assembled and sold in Europe, the value-added share of Europe (EU-27) rose to 68%. Even in the case when it was assembled in China and sold in the United States, Europe captured as much as 51% of the value added, despite of the fact that it had rather little role in supplying the physical components. Our analysis illustrates that international trade statistics can be misleading; the capture of value added is largely detached from the physical goods flows. It is rather services and other intangible aspects of the supply chain that dominate. While final assembly – commanding 2% of the value added in our case – has increasingly moved offshore, the developed countries continue to capture most of the value added generated by global supply chains.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Finland

75. Are resurging state-owned enterprises impeding competition overseas?

Author:
Nilgün Gökgür
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
There are no up-to-date systematic data on the size, composition, ownership structure, and economic weight of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), so we are unable to assess the impact of SOE performance on stakeholders in domestic and overseas markets. Yet there is sufficient evidence of their expansion, especially following the 2008 financial crisis. Emerging markets, led by China, are now increasingly encouraging their SOEs to expand globally as multinational enterprises (MNEs).
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa and China

76. Inward FDI in Israel and its policy context

Author:
Yair Aharoni
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In the first four decades of its existence, Israel was not successful in attracting inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) despite attempts to do so. In the past two decades, Israel have become a haven for multinational enterprises (MNEs) that have taken advantage of its unique assets – among them a skilled, educated workforce and cutting-edge research-and-development (R) capabilities – by establishing production lines or R centers and acquiring dozens of successful start ups. Israel's IFDI stock sharply increased from US$ 4.5 billion in 1990 to US$ 71.3 billion in 2009. It is expected that IFDI will further accelerate following Israel's accession to the OECD in May 2010 and as more firms from emerging market economies, including China and India, will come to appreciate its characteristics as an ideal locational choice. Israel also weathered the global economic crisis well, even though IFDI declined sharply. Israel actively encourages IFDI, mainly in high technology areas. In 2010, the Government also created special incentives to attract research centers of financial institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, India, and Israel

77. Intercity Buses: The Forgotten Mode

Author:
Randal O'Toole
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The debate over President Obama's fantastically expensive high-speed rail program has obscured the resurgence of a directly competing mode of transportation: intercity buses. Entrepreneurial immigrants from China and recently privatized British transportation companies have developed a new model for intercity bus operations that provides travelers with faster service at dramatically reduced fares.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Infrastructure, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and China

78. Human resources in China Prepare for opportunity

Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
Foreign companies continue to be attracted by the opportunities offered by China's large and rapidly growing economy. China has a population of over 1.3bn, and the size of the economy is likely to grow to just under US$13trn a year at market exchange rates by 2015. Although GDP per head will still be relatively low by the end of the forecast period, at just under US$10,000 a year, this will represent a substantial improvement from just under US$4,500 in 2010. Significant regional disparities within China will persist. The provinces of the eastern seaboard enjoy standards of living well above the national average. However, there are also markets to be found in inland China, where many large cities are located. To some extent, the size of the population and the pace of economic growth belie the challenges of operating in China. Nationwide distribution networks will increasingly be put in place, but the Chinese market is likely still to be a fragmented one by 2015.
Topic:
Demographics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China

79. Renminbi Rules: The Conditional Imminence of the Reserve Currency Transition

Author:
Arvind Subramanian
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of the recent financial crisis and the ongoing rapid changes in the world economy, the fate of the dollar as the premier international reserve currency is under scrutiny. This paper attempts to answer whether the Chinese renminbi will eclipse the dollar, what will be the timing of, and the prerequisites for this transition, and which of the two countries controls the outcome. The key finding, based on analyzing the last 110 years, is that the size of an economy—measured not just in terms of GDP but also trade and the strength of the external financial position—is the key fundamental correlate of reserve currency status. Further, the conventional view that sterling persisted well beyond the strength of the UK economy is overstated. Although the United States overtook the United Kingdom in terms of GDP in the 1870s, it became dominant in a broader sense encompassing trade and finance only at the end of World War I. And since the dollar overtook sterling in the mid-1920s, the lag between currency dominance and economic dominance was about 10 years rather than the 60-plus years traditionally believed. Applying these findings to the current context suggests that the renminbi could become the premier reserve currency by the end of this decade, or early next decade. But China needs to fulfill a number of conditions—making the reniminbi convertible and opening up its financial system to create deep and liquid markets—to realize renminbi preeminence. China seems to be moving steadily in that direction, and renminbi convertibility will proceed apace not least because it offers China's policymakers a political exit out of its mercantilist growth strategy. The United States cannot in any serious way prevent China from moving in that direction.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and China

80. Chinese Commodity Imports in Ghana and Senegal: Demystifying Chinese Business Strength in Urban West Africa

Author:
Laurence Marfaing and Alena Thiel
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the twenty‐first century, Africa has seen the arrival of a new form of Chinese migration. Largely independent from big Chinese players, these “new entrepreneurial migrants” come to Africa not as workers in the highly prestigious state projects, but rather to follow their own economic interests. Engaging in business activities as diverse as petty manufacturing, printing, pharmaceutical and medical services, restaurants, beauty salons and last but not least, general trade, these independent Chinese migrants are often acknowledged for bringing affordable new commercial services and goods to low‐income households on the African continent. On the other hand, the high visibility of the Chinese entrepreneurial activities has also sparked anti‐Chinese sentiments among many African entrepreneurs.
Topic:
Economics, Imperialism, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Ghana