Topic: Markets / Political Geography: China

1. How Huawei Weathered the Storm: Resilience, Market Conditions or Failed Sanctions?

Author:: Hosuk Lee-Makiyama and Robin Baker
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Huawei is exhibiting stoic resilience in the face of US sanctions, economic downturns, and the slow pace of 5G investments. There is a narrative that the company has been propped up by the Chinese government, but the key to Huawei’s resilience is multifaceted. Through pre-emptive stockpiling and ingenuity, the company has continued to fulfil its base station orders and defend its market shares abroad. Concurrently, Huawei has made an autonomous business decision to reinvest its earnings and intensify R&D to secure its supply chains against political risks and diversify into new business areas. Successful forays into semiconductors, cloud services and energy grids have also been facilitated by a capital structure that lends itself to long-term planning. Huawei’s survival is not necessarily a lesson in the futility of sanctions to stifle technological progress. However, it does show that muddled political objectives and inconsistent implementation will yield potentially contrary outcomes. At the same time, factors that contribute to Huawei’s resilience also highlight the infighting and vulnerabilities of listed firms like Mavenir, Ericsson and Nokia.
Topic:: Markets, Sanctions, Digital Economy, Resilience, and Huawei
Political Geography:: China, North America, and United States of America

2. Unpacking China’s industrial policy and its implications for Europe

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Robin Schindowski
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: China is often credited with a successful application of industrial policy. One important particularity of China’s industrial policy is that it aims at levelling the playing field between the state economy and the private economy in access to finance, yet within a framework of strategic goals. This aim is not relevant for market economies, such as those of the European Union, but only for those where state enterprises are clearly privileged. Notwithstanding the difficulties in making valid comparisons, our analysis of how China conducts industrial policy in a variety of sectors points to success in some sectors but not all. More importantly, productivity growth in China has already been declining for two decades. Given the very large resources that China has put into industrial policy, with subsidies being only one part, it is surprising that success is not more evident. This relates partly to factors including cronyism and regional protectionism. While the former might be less relevant for the EU given the different institutional background, the latter certainly is relevant since the EU faces the potential consequences of member country-level industrial policy for its single market. A lesson from China seems to come from the sectoral focus, with a long-term and economic-security mindset. The EU is far from this, but it is in the process of linking economic security to industrial policy. Finally, responding to China’s industrial policy involves diverse investigations and challenges in measuring subsidies accurately. Understanding China’s very diverse and complex approach to helping companies achieve the government’s industrial policy goals is crucial for anticipating the consequences of China’s actions. These could be positive, such as cheaper imports of green technology, or negative, such as Chinese overcapacity spilling over to the EU single market.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Markets, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

3. The Russia Factor in China’s Relations with the West

Author:: Klaus W. Larres and Lea Thome
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Tension between China and the Western world has been a characteristic of global affairs for the better part of the last decade. Notwithstanding Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States continues to view China as its greatest global rival and competitor. In fact, many policymakers in Washington (though by no means all of them) view China as an existential threat to America’s global influence and predominance. As the European Union and its 27 member states are not among the world’s superpowers, the Europeans have a somewhat more relaxed attitude toward China. Still, according to an important policy statement issued by the EU Commission in 2019, Brussels has come to see Beijing not only as a “partner and competitor” but also as a serious “systemic rival.” This refers less to geopolitical concerns but very much to global governance issues and geoeconomic, trade, and investment relations with China. The EU is deeply concerned about the continuing lack of reciprocity of market access, intellectual property theft, and China’s frequently state-subsidized competition regarding cutting-edge technology products, including solar panels, EV vehicles, and many other products, which may soon swamp the EU market. The EU Commission has launched an investigation into China’s production of EV vehicles and also Beijing’s shipbuilding industry, which it suspects may well work on the basis of rather unfair and highly subsidized support from the Chinese state.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Markets, Geopolitics, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Production
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

4. Is Guanxi Changing? Referral Hiring and Social Networks in China

Author:: Elena Obukhova and Yao Lu
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: What is the role of guanxi in China today? To answer this question, Professor Elena Obukhova examines the relationship between social networks and referral hiring. In the first study, she compares China and the US. In the second study, she explores differences between China’s provinces. This event is part of the 2023-2024 lecture series on “Labor Market Transformations in China" and is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by Columbia's China Center for Social Policy.
Topic:: Markets, Labor Issues, Social Networks, and Hiring
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

5. Impacts of Trade Diversion from China in the United States Market on Wages in a Third Country: Evidence from Thailand

Author:: Kazunobu Hayakawa and Sasatra Sudsawasd
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:: Since the latter half of the 2010s, China’s exports to the United States (US) have gradually decreased due to the US-China trade war and other factors, such as lockdown measures in China to combat COVID-19. This decrease has resulted in increasing exports from third countries, including Thailand, to the US market by substituting China’s exports, i.e. trade diversion. Against this backdrop, this study empirically investigates how the changes in exports to the US driven by the change in China’s exports to the US affect wages in Thailand. Especially, we examine the heterogeneous effects according to workers’ characteristics. To this end, we conduct regression analyses using individual-level quarterly data from the first quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2023. Our main finding is that the wage gap between low- and middle-skilled workers decreased, whilst the gap between middle- and high-skilled workers increased. Namely, the increased exports to the US caused ‘wage polarisation’ in Thailand. We also find that the increase in exports to the US contributed to expanding the wage gap by age but narrowing it by gender.
Topic:: Markets, Trade Wars, Exports, and Wages
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Thailand, and United States of America

6. Scramble for Green Technologies: Strategies of Major Players and Serbia’s Opportunities

Author:: Mikhail Korostikov
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:: The struggle between the EU, the US and China for dominance in new technological niche markets has the potential to become the most important story of the next two to three decades, potentially overshadowing any ongoing military conflicts in the world. It is taking place on several fronts at once: artificial intelligence, new principles of industrial production (such as the use of robots or additive technologies), space exploration, and much more. This report explores the political and economic confrontation between the three sides regarding the green technology industry and draws certain conclusions regarding the implications of this confrontation for Serbia. The role of Serbia’s reserves of lithium and other minerals important for the latest high-tech industries could affect the country’s standing in the world in general, and its importance to the EU in particular. However, it is critical to ensure that Serbia maximises the opportunities associated with the exploitation of lithium and concentrates the maximum number of links in the value chain associated with the extraction, processing and utilisation of the valuable resource. It is equally important that the lithium mining process be carried out in accordance with the best environmental standards and, first and foremost, with the support of the environmental authorities of the European Union, potentially being the final beneficiaries of the project.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Green Technology, Mining, Lithium, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: China, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and United States of America

7. China’s Changing COVID-19 Policies: Market and Public Health

Author:: Zhun Xu
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: After the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020, China took fast and decisive measures to successfully contain the spread of the virus within its borders. While the rest of the world saw huge human and social costs in the pandemic, the Chinese mainland for about two years was largely free from COVID. The zero-COVID model, however, met great challenges by early 2022. Despite some efforts to save the zero-COVID model, in November 2022, the Chinese government abruptly abandoned its signature COVID controls during the pandemic and switched to the opposite. This article reviews the evolution of the Chinese COVID policies and places the dramatic turns in the context of the changing Chinese political economy. The findings show that the shifting class interests and actions were an important force behind China’s retreat from zero- COVID.
Topic:: Markets, Political Economy, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

8. The Fruits of Opportunism: The Making of the World’s Largest For-profit Education Industry in China

Author:: Le Lin and Qin Gao
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: Supplemental education, such as test-preparation coaching and after-school tutoring, has become increasingly influential in shaping educational outcome and social inequality in China, U.S. and around the world. This study examines the last forty years’ making of the world’s largest for-profit education industry—China’s supplemental education industry (the Industry)—on the margin of China’s socialist education system. How and why has the Industry privatized, marketized and become globally financialized, despite the Chinese state’s restrictive policies? Drawing on in-depth interviews, internal archives, and participant observations on 28 leading supplemental education organization, the study finds that the ambiguity of the Industry empowered socially marginalized entrepreneurs to enter this previously state-dominated market and found opportunistic organizations. With their opportunistic practices being made effective and invisible under ambiguity, opportunistic organizations as a prototype of private enterprises expanded the boundaries of market operations, facilitated the retreat of the state and fostered the Industry’s privatization and marketization. This study illustrates that while opportunism leaves destruction in its wake, it can also drive the formation and evolution of a market. The study also has implications for institutional change and social stratification during China’s market transition. This event is part of the 2023-2024 lecture series on “Labor Market Transformations in China" and is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by Columbia's China Center for Social Policy.
Topic:: Education, Markets, Privatization, and Industry
Political Geography:: China and Asia

9. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes

Author:: Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, and Joschka Wanner
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Sanctions, Alliance, and Embargo
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

10. Microchips and Semiconductors: The U.S. Seeks Autonomy

Author:: Andrzej Dąbrowski
Publication Date:: 11-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The United States has turned to support of the domestic microchip industry in response to the increased risk of Chinese aggression against Taiwan, one of the leading producers, as well as to address disruptions in supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A law on this passed with bipartisan consent and is intended to help finance a more resilient American sector towards global changes in manufacturing these components. Thanks to the CHIPS Act, the U.S. can reduce its dependence on microchip imports and undermine China’s ability to dominate the market.
Topic:: Markets, Science and Technology, Autonomy, Industry, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Microchips
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

11. China’s National ETS and the Power Market: How the ETS Can Achieve Significant Emission Reductions

Author:: Yan Qin, Alistair Ritchie, and Yi Chen
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Asia Society
Abstract:: China’s newly established national emissions trading system (ETS) is intended to serve as the primary tool in assisting China in meeting its "dual carbon" target of CO2 peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. It is the largest ETS globally, accounting for 40 percent of China's CO2 emissions and more than 10 percent of worldwide emissions, with the potential to double its current size once industrial sectors are added. In its initial phase, it covers the power sector, particularly more than 2,000 enterprises operating coal- and gas-fired power stations. However, some critical challenges need to be overcome before the ETS can fulfill its emissions reduction potential in the power sector by driving fuel switching away from coal and toward renewables and low-carbon fuels through the carbon price. China's National ETS and The Power Market: How the ETS Can Achieve Significant Emission Reductions examines these challenges in relation to both the ETS itself and its interactions with the power market. It also proposes a policy pathway to address these challenges and unlock their potential to drive significant and cost-effective CO2 emissions reductions in the power sector and raise large amounts of revenue to fund the transition to carbon neutrality across the expanding ETS sectors.
Topic:: Climate Change, Markets, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

12. The Army and Sea Control: Reconsidering Maritime Strategy in the Twenty-first Century

Author:: Nathan A. Jennings
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: This article argues that the U.S. Army, rather than the traditional maritime Services, has an emergent opportunity to increase relevancy by exercising sea control to guarantee American access to global markets in competitive spaces in the twenty-first century. In a strategic environment where adversaries are developing sophisticated defenses in-depth to negate American power projection, the institution has a unique capability to create forward positions of advantage with reimagined operational fires commands at scale—as the nucleus of Joint, interagency, and multinational teams—to protect economic prosperity and preserve coalition unity in Central Europe and Southeast Asia in particular, and across the world in general. Advocating for a shift in operational approach that subordinates tactical maneuver in support of operational fires, this article differs from previous scholarship by asserting that the Army should fully embrace sea control, rather than merely providing support to the U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps, to better enable the Joint execution of American and coalition strategies in contested regions.
Topic:: Markets, Navy, Maritime, Oceans and Seas, Trade, Seapower, Army, and Marine Corps
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and United States of America

13. Melons as Lemons: Asymmetric Information, Consumer Learning and Seller Reputation

Author:: Jie Bai
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: There is often a lack of reliable quality provision in many markets in developing countries and firms generally lack a reputation for quality. One potential explanation is that mistrust due to past bad behavior can make reputation-building difficult. I examine this hypothesis in a setting that features typical market conditions in developing countries: the retail watermelon markets in a major Chinese city. I first demonstrate empirically that there is substantial asymmetric information between sellers and buyers on quality and a stark absence of quality premium at baseline. I then randomly introduce one of two branding technologies into 40 out of 60 markets–one sticker label that is widely used and counterfeited and one novel expensive laser-cut label. The experiment findings show that laser-branding induced sellers to provide higher quality and led to higher sales profits. However, after the intervention was withdrawn, all markets reverted back to baseline. I incorporate the experimental variation into an empirical model of consumer learning and seller reputation building. The results suggest that consumers are hesitant to upgrade their perception under stickers, which makes reputation-building a low-return investment. While the new technology enhances learning, the resulting increase in profits is not sufficient to cover the fixed cost of the technology for small individual sellers. Counterfactual analysis shows that information friction and fragmented market lead to significant under-provision of quality.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Developing World
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Global Focus

14. Home advantage: How China’s protected market threatens Europe’s economic power

Author:: Agatha Kratz and Janka Oertel
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: China’s vast yet protected home market has allowed some of its firms to acquire a scale that provides them with significant advantages when they compete in other markets. These firms are able to undercut European companies both in the EU and around the world, including in sectors key to Europe’s future economy and security, from energy to telecommunications. The EU urgently needs to incorporate the concept and reality of this ‘protected home market advantage’ into its thinking on China. Europe can defend its own industries by adopting an integrated policy approach, working with like-minded partners around the world, and even prising open closed parts of China’s domestic market. The EU should also look to enhance its single market – both as a defensive measure and a way to improve its strategic sovereignty.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Economy, Business, and Industry
Political Geography:: China and Europe

15. Xi Jinping’s Evergrande Dilemma

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Evergrande is one of the top-two real estate developers in a still highly fragmented Chinese sector. Its main strategy is to achieve ever-increasing scale (rather than profitability) in order to move ahead of and crowd out commercial competitors. It has also amassed the largest land reserves of all Chinese developers, which were financed through massive borrowings. By 2018, Evergrande held 822 pieces of undeveloped land in 228 cities, with a planned gross floor area of 3.28 billion square feet of new homes—the equivalent of 10 percent of Germany’s entire housing stock. It paid $75 billion just for this undeveloped land. Although Evergrande’s market share is only around 4 percent, its borrowings stand out. Its current balance sheet liabilities amount to an estimated 2 percent of China’s gross domestic product (GDP), while its off-balance-sheet liabilities could be another 1 percent of China’s GDP. This makes Evergrande the most indebted property developer in the world. Burdened by this debt, struggling to meet its debt interest and repayment obligations, and viable only if property asset values and sales continue to increase, Evergrande faces possible financial collapse—an event bound to have flow-on effects for the Chinese economy. However, the unusually high global interest in Evergrande has arisen because its woes are increasingly seen as symptomatic of those faced by the broader Chinese economy, which is struggling with enormous levels of indebtedness and overreliance on the real estate sector. Debt held by nonfinancial institutions in China increased from about 115 percent of GDP in 2010 to around 160 percent of GDP currently. This is the most rapid and largest increase in a 10-year period for any major economy and makes the level of debt held by Chinese nonfinancial institutions one of the highest in the world. The real estate sector accounts for around 15 percent of GDP, while property services account for another 14 percent—the highest in any developing economy. The share of the real estate sector as a proportion of GDP was only about 4 percent in 1997 and 9 percent in 2008. Since 2008, up to a third of all domestic fixed investment has gone into real estate, and up to half of total national debt is linked to the real estate sector.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, Markets, and Business
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16. Directions of Innovation Policy: Contrasting Views of China and the US

Author:: Anna Jaguaribe and Kamila Aben Athar
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:: At the 24th China Analysis Group Meeting, experts analyzed the contrasting views of innovation policies in China and in the United States. The 14th five-year plan continues most of the economic efforts that characterized the last decade while also challenging some certain well-established elements. Internet development is still the dominant focus, but we can also observe the shift towards a service-based economy and high investment in infrastructure. According to the participants, one of the most relevant differences between the US and China is the way non-state actors are connected to the national government. American innovation efforts heavily feature research groups and private corporations having an active role, while in China the government puts up barriers that distort the market and influence it more directly. The tension between the two countries is stronger than ever and the new Biden administration brings a new set of uncertainties to the table, but at the same time, both China and the US are heavily dependent on each other economically. China’s efforts to expand its influence worldwide by negotiating with multiple countries will most likely exacerbate the conflict and talks regarding a decoupling, which currently seems unlikable.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Markets, Infrastructure, and Innovation
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

17. Changes in the Regional Structure of China's Domestic Market and Implications

Author:: Jihyun Jung, Won Seok Choi, Hong Won Kim, and Joohye Kim
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:: In response to intensifying conflict with the United States and the shock of Covid-19, China reinforced its strategy to expand domestic demand. China's domestic market is an important factor affecting Korea's exports and economic growth. Accordingly, a large body of research has been conducted in Korea on China's expansion policy and changes in its domestic market. However, most studies have analyzed changes in China's consumer market, import market and imported items, limiting the overall understanding of China's domestic economy. In addition, most studies on China's regional domestic market have analyzed the market segmented by region. Recognizing this gap, this study expanded the scope of analysis of the domestic market in China to the entire domestic final demand, and analyzed inter-regional trade relations and other economic relations based on an inter-regional input-output analysis, which has rarely been attempted in analyses of the Chinese domestic market. In addition, the changes in the regional structure of the Chinese import market and Korea's competitiveness were analyzed using Chinese trade statistics. In particular, by synthesizing the changes after the global financial crisis, a turning point in China's economic structure, we project future changes in the regional economic structure of China, which emphasizes the independence of its domestic economy. In addition, in the era of US-China conflict, the study aimed to select regional markets meaningful to Korea, and to present strategic directions toward China focusing on regional cooperation and approaches into the domestic market.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Regional Economy, and Domestic Market
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

18. Collateral benefits? South Korean exports to the United States and the US-China trade war

Author:: Mary Lovely, David Xu, and Yinhan Zhang
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief assesses the extent to which the United States increased its imports from South Korea after the US imposition of tariffs on Chinese exports. Korea benefited from this shift in US imports, although the increase was relatively small in most sectors. The authors use highly disaggregated US import and tariff data to examine adjustments in US purchases of manufactured goods from its trade partners. Their analysis indicates that Korea made a small gain in the US market following the levying of US tariffs on Chinese exports, with Korea’s share of overall US manufacturing imports rising 0.9 percent and its share of US manufacturing imports subject to trade war tariffs rising 1.0 percent. Gains were spread across a variety of manufacturing sectors—such as wood products, textiles and apparel, and machinery—reflecting both the choices made by US officials regarding which Chinese exports to tax and the nature of preexisting trade relationships between South Korea and the United States.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Trade Wars, and Exports
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

19. Transatlantic tools: Harmonizing US and EU approaches to China

Author:: David Barkin and Agatha Kratz
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Close cooperation between the United States and the European Union is essential if advanced economies are to develop effective responses to the array of challenges presented by China. Washington and Brussels share concerns regarding competitive distortions arising through the state’s role in the Chinese economy, the use of advanced technologies to repress ethnic minorities and fuel its military, and the spread of authoritarian influence through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, there has been a lack of coordination and cooperation in recent years between the US and EU when it comes to responding to China’s policies and behaviors. Washington’s focus on risks to US economic and national security contrasts with an emphasis in Brussels on ensuring reciprocity and leveling the economic playing field. But, with the transatlantic relationship back on a better footing under the Biden administration, new structures for transatlantic dialogue being put in place, and a greater focus on the Indo-Pacific in both Washington and Brussels, this paper argues there is now an opportunity for the United States and Europe to learn from each other and harmonize some of their China-related efforts.
Topic:: Human Rights, Markets, Sanctions, European Union, Regulation, Trade, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and United States of America

20. U.S. Trade Policy toward China: Learning the Right Lessons

Author:: Scott Lincicome
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Labor market and cultural disruptions in the United States are real and important, as is China’s current and unfortunate turn toward illiberalism and empire. But pretending today that there was a better trade policy choice in 2000—when Congress granted China “permanent normal trade relations” (PNTR) status and paved the way for broader engagement—is misguided. It assumes too much, ignores too much, and demands too much. Worse, it could lead to truly bad governance: increasing U.S. protectionism; forgiving the real and important failures of our policymakers, CEOs, and unions over the last two decades; and preventing a political consensus for real policy solutions. Indeed, that is happening now.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

21. Financial Development in Hong Kong and China: A Hayekian Perspective

Author:: Kam Hon Chu
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In addition to foreign investment absorption, Hong Kong plays a pioneering role in the internationalization of the renminbi (RMB). Despite the lack of comprehensive statistics on the volume of offshore RMB transactions, Hong Kong is for sure one of the largest, if not the largest, global centers for offshore RMB businesses. According to the Triennial Central Bank Survey (BIS 2019), for instance, Hong Kong was the largest global offshore RMB foreign exchange market, with an average daily turnover of US$107.6 billion as of April 2019, considerably higher than the US$56.7 billion for London and the US$42.6 billion for Singapore.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Investment, and Financial Development
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Hong Kong

22. New Silk Road - China’s Grand Strategy and Georgia

Author:: Gvantsa Chachanidze
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: One Belt, One Road is no doubt the most ambitious project of the century. The initiative was first announced by China’s President Xi Jinping in 2013. He said that China founded a massive infrastructure program that would involve 140 states and 30 international organizations. Xi’s grandiose ambition is to build a global network of infrastructure to ease commerce, investment and connectivity with China. Originally, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) consisted of the Economic and Maritime Silk Road. Eventually the Digital Silk Road, the Belt and Road Space Information Corridor and the Health Silk Road were added to the list. The BRI helps China gain economic advantage by sending goods to European and other foreign markets cheaper and faster than competitors while also ensuring low-cost access to natural resources via BRI corridors. In fact, the shortage of natural resources is a huge issue for both Chinese economics and society. China wants to establish a strong and wealthy society by 2049 by increasing competitiveness and ensuring stable energy imports. The New Silk Road has been continuously portrayed by China’s authorities as an economic cooperation project based on a “win-win” collaboration that promotes global peace and development.
Topic:: Markets, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: China and Asia

23. The (Im-)Possibility of Rational Socialism: Mises in China’s Market Reform Debate

Author:: Isabella Weber
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Investigate the long first decade of reform in China (1978-1992) to show that Mises, in particular his initiating contribution to the Socialist Calculation Debate, became relevant to the reconfiguration of China’s political economy when the reformers gave up on the late Maoist primacy of continuous revolution and adhered instead to an imperative of development and catching up. During the Cultural Revolution, Mao had rejected the notions of efficiency and rational economic management. In the late 1970s, the reformers under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership elevated these notions to highest principle. As a result, Mises’ critique that socialism could not achieve a rational economic order came to be debated throughout the 1980s and Chinese economists developed their own reading of Mises and the Socialist Calculation Debate. When Deng Xiaoping reinstated market reforms in the early 1990s after the Tiananmen crackdown, a history of thought review of the possibility of rational socialism and socialist markets helped to justify the Socialist Market Economy with Chinese Characteristics the official designation of China’s economic system to this day.
Topic:: Markets, History, Reform, Economy, and Socialism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

24. Regulated Market, Trapped Workers: The Impacts of the "Tolerant and Prudent" Policy on Labour Precarity in China’s Online Ridehailing Sector

Author:: Wei Zhang, Hao Qi, and Zhongjin Li
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: Since 2017, China has adopted the "tolerant and prudent" policy in regulating emerging digital platform industries. The impacts of this policy on labour precarity have been rarely studied. Drawing on an original survey of over 600 ridehailing drivers in two Chinese cities, Nanjing and Beijing, we conduct a political economy analysis for a three-party framework involving the municipal government, capital, and labour. We find that, in accordance with the "tolerant and prudent" principle, municipal governments stipulated regulations regarding the qualifications of ridehailing vehicles and drivers. These regulations, although they can help reduce labour precarity in the marketplace for licensed drivers, have exacerbated precarity in the workplace. Specifically, in response to the regulations, the ridehailing platforms aligned with thirdparty rental companies that provided licensed vehicles. This arrangement has effectively trapped many ridehailing drivers in the industry: our quantitative analysis shows that drivers bounded by a rental or rent-toown agreement worked significantly longer hours than counterparts who steered their own vehicles.
Topic:: Markets, Labor Issues, Regulation, Digital Economy, and Precarity
Political Geography:: China and Asia

25. The State-Constituted Market Economy: A Conceptual Framework for China’s State–Market Relations

Author:: Isabella Weber and Hao Qi
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: China has created a distinct economic system. Yet despite a growing literature with valuable contributions on the institutional arrangements under ‘capitalism with Chinese characteristics,’ the precise economic mechanisms underpinning China’s state–market relations remain undertheorised. In this paper we develop a conceptual framework of what we call China’s state-constituted market economy. We define essential as ‘systemically significant from the perspective of the state.’ We argue that the Chinese state ‘constitutes’ the market economy by creating, participating and steering markets for essentials in order to stabilise and guide the economy as a whole. We draw on China’s statecraft tradition as well as on proposals for financial policy reform in the U.S. to conceptualise the state market-constitution in China.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, and State-Market Relations
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

26. Collective Reputation in Trade: Evidence from the Chinese Dairy Industry

Author:: Jie Bai, Ludovica Gazze, and Yukun Wang
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Collective reputation implies an important externality. Among firms trading internationally, quality shocks about one firm’s products could affect the demand of other firms from the same origin country. We study this issue in the context of a large-scale scandal that affected the Chinese dairy industry in 2008. Leveraging rich firm-product level administrative data and official quality inspection reports, we find that the export revenue of contaminated firms dropped by 84% after the scandal, relative to the national industrial trend, and the spillover effect on non-contaminated firms is measured at 64% of the direct effect. Notably, firms deemed innocent by government inspections did not fare any better than noninspected firms. These findings highlight the importance of collective reputation in international trade and the challenges governments might face in signaling quality and restoring trust. Finally, we investigate potential mechanisms that could mediate the strength of the reputation spillover. We find that the spillover effects are smaller in destinations where people have better information about parties involved in the scandal. New firms are more vulnerable to the collective reputation damage than established firms. Supply chain structure matters especially in settings where firms are less vertically integrated and exhibit fragmented upstream-downstream relationships.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, Business, Global Political Economy, and Accountability
Political Geography:: China and Asia

27. Petro Dollar. Petro Yuan. Petro Rupee?

Author:: Amit Bhandari
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:: Over the last two decades, every component of the global energy scenario has changed: demand, supply and energy-type. The only constant has been the U.S. Dollar as the currency of energy trade. Lately, the Chinese Yuan has emerged to challenge the Dollar. Can the Indian Rupee be a third player? India is now the world’s third-largest consumer and second-largest importer of energy. Its open market, transparent regulation and growing demand give it an opportunity to become the hub of a vibrant new oil market, simultaneously ensuring its energy security and raising the international profile of the Rupee. This paper explores the possibility the Rupee could be the third currency in which energy is traded, and the challenges and opportunities it presents.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Currency, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

28. How does China fare on the Russian market? Implications for the European Union

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: China’s economic ties with Russia are deepening. Meanwhile, Europe remains Russia’s largest trading partner, lender and investor. An analysis of China’s ties with Russia, indicate that China seems to have become more of a competitor to the European Union on Russia’s market. Competition over investment and lending is more limited, but the situation could change rapidly with China and Russia giving clear signs of a stronger than ever strategic partnership.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Investment, and Exports
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, and Asia

29. Fair competition put into practice

Author:: Lu Tong
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: This year's Government Work Report sent an important signal to the global community that China aims to create a fair market environment based on competitive neutrality. Competitive neutrality is a set of public policies for regulating domestic market order. It means that State‐owned enterprises and private businesses compete on a level playing field and that SOEs should not obtain an unfair competitive advantage to the detriment of free trade in such areas as tax, subsidies, debt, supervision and market entrance.
Topic:: Markets, Business, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China and Asia

30. Trade trends show China should take the opportunity to diversify its market

Author:: Dong Yan, Ma Yingying, and Xu Tingting
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The China-US trade row has been drawing a lot of attention. A detailed review of the bilateral trade situation between China and the US from January through April is a good reference for the future trend. Also, as uncertainties loomed amid tariff hikes, some related US industries were afflicted, such as plants, minerals and precious metal in the first quarter.
Topic:: Markets, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Diversification, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

31. China’s economy seeks bottom amid downward pressure in 2019

Author:: Qiyuan Xu
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: Proactive fiscal policy will be employed this year to meet the challenge of downward pressure In 2019, the Chinese economy is expected to seek a bottom as a slowdown is inevitable. It is anticipated that it will stabilize at the end of the year or early next year at a growth rate of around 6.3 percent. With China's economy entering a new era, policymakers should focus more on the quality of growth in addition to maintaining a moderately high growth rate. ...... At the same time, China's economy is facing a lot of downward pressuredomestically. First, confidence in the financial market needs to be restored. In2018, China's financial market was hit many times; its stocks, bonds, fundsand internet finance, for example, were all affected. In addition, at present, thewidening credit spreads and the high degree of liquidity between bankscannot be converted into loans to enterprises and other market entities. Facedwith rising market risks and faltering consumer confidence, investors preferlow-risk or risk-free asset allocations.
Topic:: Markets, Financial Markets, Economy, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

32. China's plans and direction for further opening-up

Author:: Yang Panpan
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: This year marks the 40th anniversary of China's reform and opening-up, and will be the first year for China to hold the international import expo. This signals that China is further opening up its domestic market and striving to be more integrated with the world. Meanwhile, China is enduring the external uncertainties mainly from its biggest trade partner -- the U.S. One question should be asked: What is China's plan and direction for further opening-up? Since China is shifting from a mid-high-income country to a high-income country, the trajectory of other major developed countries may be a reference for China's further opening-up process. With this in mind, it's necessary to compare the opening-up pattern of these countries with China. One variable might fit this kind of observation -- the foreign value added in one country's final demand. This represent the amount of foreign input used in a country's consumption and investment. Examples include final goods consumed by households, capital goods invested by firms, or intermediate goods used to make products.
Topic:: Markets, Reform, Finance, and Economy
Political Geography:: China and Asia

33. “Triple punch” policies to bring years of trade tensions

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: US President Donald Trump has adopted a hard-line trade policy and recklessly instigated the trade conflict with China. This is the result of a combination of adjustments to his trade, foreign, and fiscal policies. These intertwined policies will likely stretch China-US trade frictions throughout Trump's presidency. First of all, the adjustment to the trade policy includes a shift from multilateral free trade to regional free trade and pressuring other countries to open their markets.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, Trade Wars, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34. Opinion: China International Import Expo: New era, shared future

Author:: Su Qingyi
Publication Date:: 07-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The first China International Import Expo (CIIE) will be held from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai. The theme of the CIIE is "New Era, Shared Future," which has rich connotations. The first implication of the new era is that countries around the world begin to realize the importance of imports Economists usually emphasize sellers and exporters when they analyze the exchange between peoples and trade between countries. They tend to attach importance to exports when participating in international trade, and try to promote the growth of export.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Trade, and Imports
Political Geography:: China and Asia

35. China will further open up but not due to US pressure

Author:: Dong Yan
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: China will take measures to further open up to the outside world, Xi said in his highly-anticipated keynote address at the Boao Forum for Asia. But amid the escalating China-US trade conflict, some people have wrongly assumed Xi made the remarks with the Trump administration's accusations in mind. But a review of China's policies shows the country will deepen reform and opening-up because of its practical development needs, not because of any other country's demand or coercion. As for the expansion of imports, China shifted its focus from exports to striking the right balance between imports and exports long ago, because the increase in imports will offer more choices to Chinese consumers and help improve their living standards, aside from giving foreign companies easier access to the Chinese market.
Topic:: Markets, Trade Wars, and Imports
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

36. A Deeper Look at China’s “Going Out” Policy

Author:: Hongying Wang
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: In recent years, the world has seen rapid growth in China’s financial reach beyond its borders. Following the announcement of a “going out” strategy at the turn of the century, many Chinese enterprises have ventured to invest and operate abroad. After three decades as primarily a recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI), China has now emerged as a major FDI-originating country as well. Much of China’s foreign aid is closely entangled with its outgoing FDI, and it has also been rising. Since 2013, the Chinese government has been pushing for a new One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, aiming to connect China with countries along the ancient Silk Road and a new Maritime Silk Road via infrastructure investment. In addition, since 2009, China has actively promoted the internationalization of its currency, the renminbi (RMB). There has been a great deal of anxiety about the motivations behind China’s going out policy and its possible international consequences. Many view it as an expression of China’s international ambition and a strategy that threatens the existing international order; however, that is not the whole story. An equally important but often less understood issue is the role of China’s domestic politics and political economy in shaping its new activism in foreign financial policy. Moreover, it is unclear how successful the going out policy is. The complexity of China’s going out policy was the topic for a recent round table discussion hosted by the Centre for International Governance Innovation and the Foreign Policy Institute at the School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University in Washington, DC.[1] Participants discussed a number of issues around two broad themes: the impact of domestic political economy on China’s foreign economic policy and the challenges for China’s external financial strategy — in particular, its OBOR initiative.
Topic:: Markets, Political Economy, Monetary Policy, Infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:: China

37. Beyond Manufacturing: Developing the Service Sector to Drive Growth in the PRC

Author:: Wei Wang, Gemma Estrada, Jurgen Conrad, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As demand from global markets declines, slowing exports of manufactured goods from the People's Republic of China means the country must increasingly rely on domestic markets for growth. Unlike manufactured goods, services—those "intangible" products that include everything from transportation to scientific research to real estate services—are geared more toward domestic markets. Services, then, will be key to the rebalancing process. However, while the service sector has grown rapidly in the PRC, it continues to lag behind other countries at similar stages of development. In addition, the sector is dominated by traditional low-end types of services, rather than knowledge-intensive services. Heavy regulatory burdens, barriers to trade in services, and an unfavorable policy environment have been major obstacles to upgrading the sector and improving its competitiveness. Policy reform should focus on strengthening competition to raise productivity, with the goal of increasing not only the number of jobs and contribution to GDP, but also of positioning the service sector to compete internationally and spur export growth.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Reform, and GDP
Political Geography:: China

38. S-Japan Relations and Southeast Asia: Meeting Regional Demands

Author:: Saul P. Limaye and Tsutomu Kikuchi
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Until recently, Southeast Asia had not been a region of sustained focus for the US-Japan relationship. But the situation is changing. The international relations of the Asia-Pacific is becoming more "multipolarized." This requires the US and Japan to think about the future of the region beyond the issue of US-China relations, which has preoccupied past discussions. A number of nations and institutions in the Asia-Pacific region will substantially affect the region's future. Southeast Asian nations and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are among them. A new era of more coordinated, sustained, and combined commercial and security involvement by the US and Japan in Southeast Asia may be at hand. In light of these changes, the East-West Center in Washington (EWCW), in collaboration with the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), and through the support of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF), initiated a dialogue with Southeast Asians about their perspectives on how the US-Japan relationship and alliance could or should approach cooperation with the region.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Markets, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Asia-Pacific

39. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead in Advanced Manufacturing—Reflections on China’s Future of Jobshina's Evolving Role in Latin America: Can it Be a Win-Win?

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: This paper explores what we know about possible employment effects of the 10-year plan, issued by the State Council on May 19, 2015, entitled Made in China 2025. MIC2025 was designed to address China’s emerging labor shortage challenge. To achieve this goal, the plan seeks to boost labor productivity through an increased use of robots and through network-based upgrading of the entire industrial value chain and related services. How might the projected increase in labor productivity affect the creation and quality of jobs in China? Will China’s push into advanced manufacturing now move the country’s manufacturing employment closer to the pattern of “employment de-industrialization” observed in the US and other industrialized countries? How China will cope with the advanced manufacturing challenge for employment will have major implications not only for the US and other industrialized countries, but also for emerging economies and, most importantly for the majority of developing countries that are still struggling as latecomers to labor-intensive industrial manufacturing. The paper lays out objectives of the MIC 2025 plan and highlights a failure of Chinese policy makers to take into account employment effects and other labor market issues when they design their grand visions of industrial policy. The paper finds that until 2014, manufacturing has acted as an employment absorber in China. However new data on unemployment, labor force participation and income inequality signal that China may now be moving towards an “employment de-industrialization” pattern, unless enough knowledge-intensive service jobs will be created in China’s growing information economy. The paper concludes with implications for policy and further research.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: China

40. Beyond Manufacturing: Developing the Service Sector to Drive Growth in the PRC

Author:: Wei Wang, Gemma Estrada, Jurgen Conrad, Sang-Hyo Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: As demand from global markets declines, slowing exports of manufactured goods from the People's Republic of China means the country must increasingly rely on domestic markets for growth. Unlike manufactured goods, services—those "intangible" products that include everything from transportation to scientific research to real estate services—are geared more toward domestic markets. Services, then, will be key to the rebalancing process. However, while the service sector has grown rapidly in the PRC, it continues to lag behind other countries at similar stages of development. In addition, the sector is dominated by traditional low-end types of services, rather than knowledge-intensive services. Heavy regulatory burdens, barriers to trade in services, and an unfavorable policy environment have been major obstacles to upgrading the sector and improving its competitiveness. Policy reform should focus on strengthening competition to raise productivity, with the goal of increasing not only the number of jobs and contribution to GDP, but also of positioning the service sector to compete internationally and spur export growth.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Reform, and GDP
Political Geography:: China

41. The ASEAN Economic Community: What Stands in the Way?

Author:: Jon Dorsch
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: At the end of 2015 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will announce the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). In theory, this agreement should produce an association-wide economic integration. However, following the announcement, and for the foreseeable future, ASEAN member states will continue in significantly less than full regional economic integration. Why? Some observers believe that the AEC plans involve an "overly ambitious timeline and too many ill-thought-out initiatives." Others point to ASEAN's traditional aversion to legally binding agreements. While progress has been made in reducing or eliminating intra-ASEAN trade tariffs, substantial non-tariff barriers to trade persist. However, for most member states, the ASEAN market is relatively small while external markets, especially China, are growing rapidly. Given this outward-orientation for ASEAN trade, is the lack of an unhindered regional market really a problem?
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Asia

42. China’s Hidden Obstacles to Socioeconomic Rebalancing

Author:: Christopher McNally and Boy Lüthje
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The global financial crisis of 2008-09 led to a policy consensus in China that its socioeconomic development model needed rebalancing. China's rapid development has been based on extensive growth reliant on exports, low wages, environmental exploitation, and the manufacturing of cheap products. China's current plans identify paths to economic rebalancing through intensive growth driven by rising investment in new technologies and manufacturing processes, improved wages and skills, and improved worker and environmental protections. Two industries, automotive and information technology, demonstrate the experience of and opportunities for rebalancing. Both offer improved employment conditions with better wages, but continue to incorporate large swaths of low-wage employment with little protection for workers' health and the environment. Economic rebalancing in China, therefore, has so far only appeared in pockets. Institutional safeguards for wages and labor standards remain constrained by powerful alliances among multinational corporations, Chinese state-owned/private enterprises, and the Chinese state.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

43. Signaling Legitimacy to Foreign Investors: Evidence from Chinese IPOs on U.S. Markets.

Author:: Xu Jin, Donald Patton, and Martin Kenney
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: From 1999-2010 120 Chinese emerging growth firms undertook initial public stock offerings on U.S. markets. This provided a remarkable natural experiment for exploring how this class of organizations from a radically different political economy established their legitimacy and how, once established, this legitimacy permitted organizational and personnel flexibility for later firms. The increased legitimacy allowed changes in the backgrounds of the members of the IPO top management team (TMT) and independent members of the board of directors (BoD). We find that overall composition of both the TMT and BoD in terms of experience in the U.S. decreased and “Chineseness” increased, but at different rates. For the operational TMT members, U.S. experience decreased dramatically over time, except for the CFO who is the representative of investors within the TMT. Similarly, on the BoD, the venture capitalists continued to have high levels of US experience, while the other independent members tracked the TMT in having less US experience. In this increased legitimacy allows the acceptance of “foreign” operational management, but investors are less lenient in terms of ensuring that their “monitors,” the CFO and venture capitalists, should show evidence, i.e., U.S. experience and background, that they adhere to the investor’s values.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: China

44. Responding to Uncertainty: Syndication Partner Choice by Foreign Venture Capital Firms in China.

Author:: Xiao Huang, Martin Kenney, and Donald Patton
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Cross-border venture capital investment has grown dramatically. Drawing upon observations about the liability of foreignness, previous research has shown that foreign venture capitalists (VCs) tend to partner with local VCs in order to offset information asymmetry and the liabilities of foreignness. Much of the literature has suggested that local VCs should help reduce operational uncertainty. This paper examines syndication partner choice in China, which today is likely the most uncertain environment in which foreign VCs operate on a large scale. This provides an ideal environment for understanding partner selection under uncertainty. Our results show that foreign investors are more likely to choose Chinese investors in later rounds and in more mature portfolio firms. While foreign firms with more Chinese experience are more likely to co-invest with Chinese VCs, the older foreign VC firms are less likely to do so. Remarkably, having a Chinese office made foreign VCs less likely to coinvest. In seed-stage investments, when uncertainty is the greatest, foreign firms are least likely to co-invest with Chinese VCs, and this was not affected by the maturation of the market, while at the later stage, when uncertainty is lowest, they are most likely to co-invest.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: China

45. Maintaining Financial Stability in the People's Republic of China during Financial Liberalization

Author:: Nicholas Borst and Nicolas R. Lardy
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: China's banking system is now the largest in the world, and its capital markets are rapidly approaching the size of those in the advanced economies. Borst and Lardy trace the evolution of China's financial system away from a traditional bank-dominated and state-directed financial system toward a more complex, market-based system. They analyze and outline the optimal sequence of financial reforms needed to manage the new risks accompanying this evolution.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Financial Crisis, and Reform
Political Geography:: China

46. China's energy demands: are they reshaping the world?

Author:: Gerald Stang
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: In 2012, China was the world's seventh biggest producer of natural gas, the fourth largest oil producer, and the biggest producer of hydroelectricity. It also produced almost as much coal as the rest of the world combined. Still, this is not enough. China's domestic energy bounty has long allowed the country to keep its overall import dependency relatively low but, as the country's economy continues to boom, its import dependency is growing quickly, particularly with regard to oil.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: China and Asia

47. From Catching Up to Forging Ahead? China's Prospects in Semiconductors

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: China's new strategy to upgrade its semiconductor industry (outlined in the "Guidelines to Promote National Integrated Circuit Industry Development," June 24, 2014), seeks to move from catching-up to forging ahead in semiconductors, by strengthening simultaneously China's integrated circuit (IC) design industry and domestic IC foundry services.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, Markets, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: China and Asia

48. The State-owned Enterprises Issue in China's Prospective Trade Negotiations

Author:: John Whalley and Hejing Chen
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: China, in the next few years, faces the prospect of major regional and bilateral trade negotiations possibly including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Japan, Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand and separate negotiations with India, Korea and Japan, potentially the United States and even possibly the European Union. A likely key element in such negotiations, and one already raised by the United States in the TPP negotiations, is that of trade arrangements involving state-owned enterprises (SOEs). China is viewed from outside as having a large SOE sector, and large SOEs are viewed as having a protected monopoly position in domestic Chinese markets.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Europe, India, Asia, Australia, and Korea

49. The Effect of Index Futures Trading on Volatility: Three Markets for Chinese Stocks

Author:: Pierre Siklos, Martin T. Bohl, and Jeanne Diesteldorf
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: This paper examines whether the introduction of Chinese stock index futures had an impact on the volatility of the underlying spot market. To this end, we estimate several Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and compare our findings for mainland China with Chinese index futures traded in Singapore and Hong Kong. Our results indicate that Chinese index futures decrease spot market volatility with all three spot markets considered. In contrast, we do not obtain the same results for the companion index futures markets in Hong Kong and Singapore. China's stock market is relatively young and largely dominated by private retail investors. Nevertheless, our evidence is favourable to the stabilization hypothesis usually confirmed in mature markets.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Singapore

50. The Impact of Trading with China on Botswana’s Economy

Author:: Kedibonye Sekakela
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: The objective of this paper is to examine the impact of trading with China on Botswana’s domestic and third markets. The paper also assesses the structure and magnitude of Botswana-China bilateral trade. Botswana’s trade balance with China has been widening over the past decade, with Botswana mainly exporting primary products and importing intermediate and capital goods, which are mainly used as inputs in the development of infrastructure in the country. The increased import penetration from China is associated with Botswana’s reduced total manufacturing output. China’s Textile, Clothing and Footwear (TCF) exports gained market share from Botswana’s TCF exports in the third markets, that is South Africa. There is a need to consider ways of enhancing Botswana’s export competitiveness and there are also lessons to be learnt from China in relation to enhancing productivity in the TCF and other exporting industries.
Topic:: Development, Markets, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Exports
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Botswana

51. The Hyperglobalization of Trade and Its Future

Author:: Arvind Subramanian and Martin Kessler
Publication Date:: 08-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: This paper describes seven salient features of trade integration in the 21st century: Trade integration has been more rapid than ever (hyperglobalization); it is dematerialized, with the growing importance of services trade; it is democratic, because openness has been embraced widely; it is criss-crossing because similar goods and investment flows now go from South to North as well as the reverse; it has witnessed the emergence of a mega-trader (China), the first since Imperial Britain; it has involved the proliferation of regional and preferential trade agreements and is on the cusp of mega-regionalism as the world's largest traders pursue such agreements with each other; and it is impeded by the continued existence of high barriers to trade in services. Going forward, the trading system will have to tackle three fundamental challenges: In developed countries, the domestic support for globalization needs to be sustained in the face of economic weakness and the reduced ability to maintain social insurance mechanisms. Second, China has become the world's largest trader and a major beneficiary of the current rules of the game. It will be called upon to shoulder more of the responsibilities of maintaining an open system. The third challenge will be to prevent the rise of mega-regionalism from leading to discrimination and becoming a source of trade conflicts. We suggest a way forward—including new areas of cooperation such as taxes—to maintain the open multilateral trading system and ensure that it benefits all countries.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: China

52. China's Credit Boom: New Risks Require New Reforms

Author:: Nicholas Borst
Publication Date:: 10-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The Chinese financial system has undergone almost continuous reform since the dismantling in the 1980s of the Soviet- style system where only one state-controlled bank existed. Government efforts to create a financial system that adheres to international best practices of commercial lending accelerated in the 1990s (box 1). Reforms progressed quickly during this period, but they were accompanied by excessive credit growth and a massive increase in nonperforming loans, threatening the solvency of some banks and the financial stability of the entire economy. The risk of these weaknesses was dramatized by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, in which several nearby countries were crippled by plunging currency values, rising interest rates and difficulties servicing their foreign-held debts.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

53. Crucial Collaborators or Petty Players? The Globalization of R and the Rise of China and India

Author:: Andrew B. Kennedy
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:: In recent decades, research and development has become a key new arena of globalization. Whereas multinational corporations once conducted R primarily in their home countries, it is now often dispersed across multiple locations around the world. Has this process transformed economic ties between the world's dominant state and its would-be rising powers in ways that imply an important power shift? Focusing on China and India's growing collaboration with the U.S., this paper argues that it has not. China and India remain considerably more reliant on the globalization of R than the U.S. does, and this remains a potential source of leverage for Washington. This vulnerability mainly reflects the fact that U.S. R investments in China and India are far more important for these two Asian countries than they are for the U.S. These investments loom larger in the Chinese and Indian innovation systems than they do in their American counterpart, and it is difficult to imagine any country substituting for the U.S. in this regard. In contrast, the U.S. cannot derive a great deal of leverage as a platform for R Both China and India are considerably less dependent on the U.S. in this respect.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: United States, China, and India

54. Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis

Author:: Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: There is a long-standing debate among economists and policymakers on the benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates (Klein and Shambaugh 2010). In principle, flexible exchange rates allow a country's central bank to focus on stabilizing economic growth and inflation, which are the ultimate goals of monetary policy. However, some argue that in practice central banks often do not use their powers wisely and it may be better to restrict their freedom by requiring them to peg their currency to that of an important trading partner. Others note that flexible exchange rates are far more volatile than fundamental factors can explain (Flood and Rose 1995), raising the possibility that they may introduce wasteful cross-sectoral fluctuations in economic activity. One common viewpoint is that flexible exchange rates may be fine for large countries but that the smallest countries are better off with fixed exchange rates (Åslund 2010).
Topic:: Economics, Foreign Exchange, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and United Kingdom

55. Go out and manufacture: Policy support for Chinese FDI in Africa

Author:: Nikia Clarke
Publication Date:: 11-2013
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Energy investments and infrastructure contracts remain prominent in China's Africa engagement. However, investment in manufacturing makes up a significant proportion of Chinese outward foreign direct investment (FDI). Its characteristics–large numbers of smaller transactions by privately owned small and medium-sized firms–make these flows difficult to assess or control. However, China and African governments have an interest in effectively channeling this type of FDI.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa and China

56. The global economy: Healing or still hurting?

Author:: Leo Abruzzese
Publication Date:: 06-2013
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: After a series of setbacks, the global economy is slowly mending US economy is strengthening; star performer Jobs market is on a modest upswing Housing is bouncing back China is recovering from a slowdown Boom years are over, but so is the slump European debt crisis is stabilizing but austerity is killing the economy Euro zone remains big drag on global growth Japan is showing signs of recovery under a new government Central banks are supporting the bounce - back in a big way Don't expect a brisk recovery, though; many risks remains Debt levels still high; asset prices are volatile; tensions in Middle East, China, Kore and has stabilised in Europe, but at a low level. In Germany, manufacturing output is rising again.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: United States and China

57. China: Highlights and Key Issues

Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The Chinese economy expanded by 7.4% year-on-year in Q3, down from 7.6% in Q2, but stronger than we had expected. Of particular surprise was the implied quarterly growth rate; based on the seasonally adjusted data released by the NBS, the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 9.1%, the strongest since 2011Q3.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Syria

58. The Emergence of China in the Middle East

Author:: James Chen
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: During the 9th century, Arab traders regularly plied lucrative maritime routes that connected the Persian Gulf to southern China by way of the Indian Ocean. This commercial activity, which mostly involved jade, silk, and other luxury goods, went on for centuries and became part of what is now known as the Silk Road. In some ways, the world is now witnessing a restoration of that ancient trading relationship between two civilizations—except that oil and consumer goods have replaced jade and silk.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, and Arabia

59. Freeing the Global Market: How to Boost the Economy by Curbing Regulatory Distortions

Author:: Shanker A. Singham
Publication Date:: 10-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage. ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars. To combat ACMDs, the conventional trade policy approach of focusing on the The U.S. economy faces major challenges competing internationally. One of the most worrisome is the growing use in China and other advanced developing countries of anticompetitive market distortions (ACMDs)—including regulatory protection that privileges specific companies—which put foreign competitors at a disadvantage.1 ACMDs are government actions that give certain business interests artificial competitive advantages over their rivals, be they foreign or domestic, to the detriment of consumer welfare. These market distortions are especially damaging to the industries in which the United States enjoys the greatest comparative advantages, but they are also harmful to the long-term prosperity of developing economies and cost the global economy trillions of dollars.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, India, and Brazil

60. A new economic nationalism? Lessons from the PotashCorp decision in Canada

Author:: Sandy Walker
Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In its World Investment Report 2011, UNCTAD reported that liberalizing investment policy measures taken globally in 2010 outnumbered restrictive measures. Without the benefit of statistics, investors might have drawn the opposite conclusion, witnessing what appears to be a rising tide of national resistance to foreign takeovers: the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board's rejection of a takeover of the Australian Securities Exchange by the Singapore Exchange, Italian concern over a French company's takeover of dairy giant Parmalat and the US Government's requirement that Chinese company Huawei divest certain assets it had acquired from 3Leaf.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: United States, China, Canada, Australia, and Singapore

61. China: Industry Forecast

Publication Date:: 08-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: GDP is expected to rise by 7.9% in 2012 and expand by 8.7% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, GDP is predicted to grow on average by 7.8% a year. Manufacturing output growth is forecast to be higher than GDP growth over the next decade. Manufacturing output is expected to increase by 8.8% in 2012 and expand by 9.4% in 2013. Over the next 10 years to 2021, manufacturing output is expected to grow on average by 7.9% a year. As a result, the share of manufacturing output in GDP is projected to rise from 34.0% in 2011 to 35.1% by 2016 and increase to 35.6% by 2021. Over the same period, the share of service sector output in GDP is expected to expand from 41.7% in 2011 to 43.8% in 2016 and rise to 45.5% in 2021.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China and Israel

62. Retail 2022: How the Economist Intelligence Unit sees the retail landscape changing over the next decade

Publication Date:: 11-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Markets of the future—China, India, Brazil and Russia—will become the dominant retail markets l Africa, the final frontier—as BRIC opportunities diminish retailers will look to Africa as a driver of growth l Virtual marketplace— e-commerce, m-commerce and s-commerce—will transform the global retail landscape l Bricks and mortar will fight back as traditional retailers respond to change by integrating online with physical store offerings l Convenience will be king as shopping habits evolve into a multichannel approach rather than “one-stop shopping” l UK focus: polarised shopping habits could continue even when incomes recover, leading to an even greater squeeze on mid-market retail by 2022.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:: Russia, China, United Kingdom, India, and Brazil

63. A Rapidly Changing Energy World, Or Perhaps Not

Author:: Irwin M. Stelzer
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Slow growth here and in China, and recession in Europe are reducing demand for oil. Inventories in the U.S. are at a 22-year high. The Federal Reserve Board's QEs that pumped paper money into the economy and drove up the nominal price of oil have come to an end. And the twelve OPEC oil cartelists, who between them supply 40% of the world's oil, are producing 1.6 million barrels in excess of the agreed daily quota of 30 million barrels. As a result, U.S. benchmark crude oil prices are now closer to $80 per barrel than to the $110 they reached only four months ago.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Oil
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

64. Pharmaceutical Price Regulation: Macro-Level Evidence from China between 1997 and 2008

Author:: Qiong Zhang, Binzhen Wu, and Xue Qiao
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: This paper uses macro-level data between 1997 and 2008 to evaluate the effects of China's pharmaceutical price regulations. We find that these regulations had short-run effects on medicine price indexes, reducing them by less than 0.5 percentage points. The effects could have been slightly reinforced when these regulations were imposed on more medicines. However, these regulations failed to reduce household health expenditures and the average profitability of the pharmaceutical industry, and firms on the break-even edge were worse off. Finally, although these regulations have no significant effects on the price of substitutes or complements for medicines, they increased expensive medicine imports.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China

65. Africa: open for business The potential, challenges and risks

Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Africa is drawing increasing attention, not only from the perspective of businesses based in China and Europe, but also from operators in Africa itself. In particular, closer economic ties between Africa and China have been covered extensively by the media recently—with fairly mixed reviews. This paper highlights the potential, challenges and risks for doing business in Africa over the next few years.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Europe

66. Is Chinese FDI pushing Latin America into natural resources?

Author:: Miguel Pérez Ludeña
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Latin America is a recent phenomenon. Although the China National Petroleum Corporation and other companies have been present in Peru, Ecuador and Venezuela since the early 1990s, large projects have been pursued only since 2006, following an extended period of high commodity prices. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimated that there were US$ 15 billion of Chinese FDI inflows into Latin America in 2010, 90% of which were in extractive industries. This further contributed to the already high percentage of Chinese FDI flows to the region that are in natural resources. At a time of high economic growth fueled by commodity exports and strong currency appreciation (particularly in Brazil), FDI into extractive industries strengthens the region's specialization in primary products at the expense of manufacturing and other activities.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Natural Resources, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, Brazil, Latin America, and Peru

67. The unbalanced dragon: China's uneven provincial and regional FDI performance

Author:: Karl P. Sauvant, Chen Zhao, and Xiaoying Huo
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Among developing countries, China attracts most foreign direct investment (FDI). Where is this investment located within China, what explains its distribution and what are policy implications? We used UNCTAD's FDI Performance Index to answer the first question. Although developed for countries , it can be applied to sub-national units. It uses provincial GDP to ascertain whether a given territorial unit has received FDI inflows as expected from its economic size. Standardizing the data accordingly reveals three clusters of provinces for 2007-2010 (table 1, figure 1 below): The first cluster encompasses virtually all coastal provinces: they have an index value above 1, i.e. perform better than their economic size would lead one to expect. They account for 9 of the top 11 performers of Mainland China's 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions (“provinces”). The provinces in the middle cluster underperform (index value of 1-0.5). They include 5 central provinces, but also 3 western and 2 coastal provinces. The provinces in the bottom cluster underperform significantly (index value below 0.5), comprising primarily the country's western provinces (8 out of the 10 provinces in this cluster).
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

68. Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi

Author:: Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, and Prachi Mishra
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: This paper estimates the impact of China's exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, known as the "spillover effect." Recent theory is used to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role. The variation is used—afforded by disaggregated trade data—across exporters, importers, product, and time to estimate this spillover effect. The results show robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant spillover effect. Estimates suggest that, on average, a 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts a developing country's exports of a typical 4-digit Harmonized System (HS) product category to third markets by about 1.5 to 2 percent. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with product characteristics as implied by theory.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:: China

69. Country Forecast: Global outlook

Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Three years after the global economy reached its lowest point in three-quarters of a century, the recovery remains incomplete and the outlook uncertain. On March 9th 2009, the capitalisation of Morgan Stanley\'s global stockmarket index fell to US$26trn, nearly 60% below its 2007 peak. Today, the value of the world\'s stockmarkets has yet to return to the pre-crisis level—nor has the confidence of most consumers and businesses. The excesses of the last ten years—the personal debt accumulated early in the last decade and the public debt added during the recession—have saddled many countries with weak economic foundations and little or no resilience to shocks. This has left the US economy, in particular, struggling for a third straight year to lock in faster growth. It has left debt-ravaged Europe in recession and China manoeuvring unsteadily to deflate a bubble. On the brighter side, the global economy will grow again this year and the imbalances that built up over the past decade will continue to unwind. But global growth will be slower this year than last, and a host of risks—from elevated oil prices to war in the Middle East, to the collapse of Europe\'s single currency—will weigh on confidence and reduce spending and investment.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

70. Stirring up the South China Sea

Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The conflicting mandates and lack of coordination among Chinese government agencies, many of which strive to increase their power and budget, have stoked tensions in the South China Sea. Repeated proposals to establish a more centralised mechanism have foundered while the only agency with a coordinating mandate, the foreign ministry, does not have the authority or resources to manage other actors. The Chinese navy\'s use of maritime tensions to justify its modernisation, and nationalist sentiment around territorial claims, further compound the problem. But more immediate conflict risks lie in the growing number of law enforcement and paramilitary vessels playing an increasing role in disputed territories without a clear legal framework. They have been involved in most of the recent incidents, including the prolonged standoff between China and the Philippines in April 2012 in Scarborough Reef. Any future solution to the South China Sea disputes will require a consistent policy from China executed uniformly throughout the different levels of government along with the authority to enforce it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Markets, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:: China and Israel

71. Rising Democracies and the Arab Awakening: Implications for Global Democracy and Human Rights

Author:: Ted Piccone and Emily Alinikoff
Publication Date:: 01-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: As the emerging global order takes shape, debate is growing more intense around the trajectory of the rising powers and what their ascendency to positions of regional and international influence means for the United States, its traditional allies, and global governance more broadly. Commentary about these rising powers— often referred to in a generic way as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) but actually encompassing a dozen or so countries largely represented in the G-20—ranges from alarmist to sanguine. Pessimists argue that China, with its impressive economic growth and increasingly global reach, is well-positioned to challenge the United States' role of global superpower and to weaken the commitment of other rising powers, and various international organizations, to liberal values. More optimistic analysts insist that the rise of middle powers, most of which are democracies of varying stripes, bodes well for the world: millions are being lifted out of poverty, rule of law is taking hold and the international system is bound to be a more inclusive, representative one.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Poverty, and Governance
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Arabia

72. Rising Tensions Over China's Monopoly on Rare Earths?

Author:: Jane Nakano
Publication Date:: 05-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: The United States, Japan, and the European Union—the three key consumers of Chinese rare earth materials—formally complained to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in March about Chinese restrictions on its rare earth exports. Several weeks later, China announced the establishment of a 150-plus member association with the official aim of promoting sustainable development within this sector. Some analysts wonder if this is part of a Chinese plan to circumvent international complaints by instituting an oligopolistic arrangement to control its rare earth exports. Others ask if this could be another step in an escalating dispute with China over the global supply of rare earth materials.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, and Europe

73. False Hopes for Chinese Economic "Integration"

Author:: John Lee
Publication Date:: 04-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: In a recent online article in Foreignpolicy.com, regular columnist and head of the Economic Strategy Institute, Clyde Prestowitz, argued that the next president of the World Bank should be Zhou Xiaochuan, Chairman of the People's Bank of China. For Prestowitz, it was not just Zhou's excellent credentials that made him ideal for the position, but also the fact that he is Chinese. China is accurately accused of “gaming” the global economic liberal order through its currency policies, restricted market access for outside firms and governments, and internal intervention in the economy to the detriment of foreign firms. But Prestowitz believes that such an appointment would significantly encourage China to behave as a “responsible stakeholder.” Behind this thinking is the argument that the more power, prestige, and authority China accumulates within the existing order, the more liberal Chinese economic policies will become.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: China

74. US Agricultural Exports to ASEAN Grow - But Face Competition

Author:: Michael McConnell
Publication Date:: 03-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: ASEAN countries have long been an important international market for US agricultural exports. The United States, in 2011, exported almost $9.6 billion of agricultural products to ASEAN, making it the sixth-largest export destination for US farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses—behind Japan ($14 billion) and just behind the European Union ($9.6 billion), but well ahead of South Korea ($7 billion). Moreover, the value of agricultural trade between the United States and ASEAN almost doubled between 2007 and 2011, with the top four ASEAN markets in 2011 for the United States being Indonesia ($2.8 billion), the Philippines ($2.1 billion), Vietnam ($1.7 billion), and Thailand ($1.3 billion). With a population of 614 million and strong economic growth, it is expected that ASEAN will continue to be an important market for US agricultural products. However, the United States is likely to face increasing competition, particularly from China, Australia, and New Zealand, all of which have free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN.
Topic:: Agriculture, Demographics, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Food
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, East Asia, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand

75. America's Voluntary Standards System—A "Best Practice" Model for Innovation Policy?

Author:: Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:: 02-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: For its proponents, America's voluntary standards system is a "best practice" model for innovation policy. Foreign observers however are concerned about possible drawbacks of a standards system that is largely driven by the private sector. There are doubts, especially in Europe and China, whether the American system can balance public and private interests in times of extraordinary national and global challenges to innovation.
Topic:: Democratization, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Europe

76. EIU: Global outlook summary

Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Abstract:: The global economy remains in precarious shape. Europe's debt crisis rages on, and although the euro appears to have survived its most recent test in the form of the Greek election on June 17th, austerity and financial-market uncertainty are depressing economic activity in Europe and, by extension, in much of the rest of the world. The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to expect global GDP growth to slow in 2012, and while our forecasts for the G3 economies—the US, euro zone and China—are essentially unchanged this month, we have cut our projections for Brazil and India.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, India, and Brazil

77. Perspectives on the G20: The Los Cabos Summit and Beyond

Author:: James A. Haley
Publication Date:: 06-2012
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: The G20 leaders meeting in Los Cabos confront a number of challenges. Most prominent among these is the state of the global economy, which remains dangerously unbalanced, and in which the balance of risks is clearly weighted on the downside. These risks emanate from several sources.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China

78. Adjusting to China: A Challenge to the U.S. Manufacturing Sector

Author:: Martin Neil Baily
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: During an "exit interview" with the Wall Street Journal, departing National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers argued that history would judge the United States based on how well we adjust to China's emergence as a great power, economically and politically. In the face of China's progress, America's manufacturing sector faces major challenges in becoming and remaining competitive and our choice of national economic policies will affect how well we meet those challenges. It is essential that the U.S. trade deficit not balloon as the economy recovers. There is scope to expand our exports in services and agriculture, but improving the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing is vital.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, China, and America

79. Toxic Legacy: Hunger, Oppression, Migration, and Health in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea

Author:: Leonard S. Rubenstein
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: During the 1990s, economic mismanagement, political oppression, natural disaster, and loss of external subsidies after the end of communism led to a calamitous decrease in food production in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). The public health infrastructure, including water and sanitation systems, drug distribution and supply chains, and local clinics and hospitals, also deteriorated. At least half a million people died of starvation and millions more suffered acute or chronic malnutrition. Malnutrition increased vulnerability to disease at a time when the health system was incapable of effective response. Fifeen years later, neither health nor the food systems have recovered as the economy persistently stagnates. Health continues to be a low priority for the government. The availability of food is insufficient to meet population needs, hospitals and clinics are significantly ill-equipped, the medical workforce lacks appropriate training, and corruption in drug distribution is pervasive. Malnutrition and anemia, as well as diseases associated with poor sanitation, remain widespread. Over the last few years, DPRK has begun to accept international assistance to address health system needs, most notably to vaccinate children. Although these initiatives address some infrastructure needs, the continued centralized control of health and the lack of open discussion about key issues renders the possibility of reforms sufficient to meet the health needs of the people of North Korea dim. During the economic crisis, tens of thousands of North Koreans migrated to China despite harsh measures imposed by both governments to restrict border crossing and a refusal by China to give legal status to the migrants. To a limited extent, migration ameliorated the health impact of the crisis by stimulating illicit cross-border trade and informal markets that increased some North Koreans' access to food. Even after a disastrous effort by the DPRK government to shut the markets down in 2009, they are re-emerging. China's encouragement of these markets, along with regularizing the status of migrants in China, could advance its own economic interests as well as contributing to improving the health of North Koreans.
Topic:: Communism, Economics, Health, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Israel, and North Korea

80. Tradition in Chinese politics: The Party-state's reinvention of the past and the critical response from public intellectuals

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: This study discusses the role of history and tradition in the legitimization of the state in the People's Republic of China. In Chinese political debate, history has traditionally been the most important source of argumentation. Today, the Party-state is reinventing history and tradition to bolster its legitimacy, but the project has met with opposition. This study introduces and analyzes the related debate, ongoing among various actors in different public fora in China, and engaged in both by those affiliated with the Party-state and those outside the establishment.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Markets, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: China

81. Growth and Recovery in a Time of Default: Lessons from the Role of the Urban Sector in Argentina

Author:: Michael Cohen
Publication Date:: 03-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: International narratives on Argentina's recovery from the crisis of 2001-02 tend to emphasize the role of rising commodity prices and growing demand from China. Argentina is said to have been 'lucky', saved by global demand for its agricultural exports. The international narrative has also been used by local agricultural exporters to justify their objections against higher export taxes during periods of high commodity prices. These narratives are not correct. Data on the country's recovery show that it was not led by agricultural exports but was fuelled by urban demand and production. When the Convertibility period ended and the peso was devalued in 2002, price increases for imports stimulated the production of domestic goods and services for consumers. This production in turn generated multiplier effects which supported small and medium-sized firms and helped to create many new jobs. This later produced a revival of the construction and then the manufacturing sectors as well.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Argentina, and Latin America

82. The Elephant in the "Green Room": China and the Doha Round

Author:: Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, and Francis Ng
Publication Date:: 05-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: The puzzle about the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is not why it is on life support now but how it has survived as a viable multilateral initiative for so long. From the very beginning, it was clear that the Round suffered from a lack of private-sector interest, the engine that had driven previous rounds of successful trade negotiations. At most, Doha promised to deliver some security of access for unilateral liberalization previously undertaken by countries and some modest incremental market opening (Martin and Mattoo 2009; Hufbauer, Schott, and Wong 2010). That the Round had much to be modest about was reflected in the failure of even antiglobalization protesters to show up for the more recent meetings of the Doha Round.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China

83. Who Captures Value in Global Supply Chains?

Author:: Jyrki Ali-Yrkkö, Petri Rouvinen, Timo Seppälä, and Pekka Ylä-Anttila
Publication Date:: 02-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:: Available statistics tell us little about the economic consequences of increasing global dispersion of production processes. In order to shed light on the issue, we perform grass roots detective work to uncover the geography of value added in the case of a Nokia N95 smartphone circa 2007. The phone was assembled in Finland and China. In the case when the device was assembled and sold in Europe, the value-added share of Europe (EU-27) rose to 68%. Even in the case when it was assembled in China and sold in the United States, Europe captured as much as 51% of the value added, despite of the fact that it had rather little role in supplying the physical components. Our analysis illustrates that international trade statistics can be misleading; the capture of value added is largely detached from the physical goods flows. It is rather services and other intangible aspects of the supply chain that dominate. While final assembly – commanding 2% of the value added in our case – has increasingly moved offshore, the developed countries continue to capture most of the value added generated by global supply chains.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Finland

84. Are resurging state-owned enterprises impeding competition overseas?

Author:: Nilgün Gökgür
Publication Date:: 04-2011
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: There are no up-to-date systematic data on the size, composition, ownership structure, and economic weight of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), so we are unable to assess the impact of SOE performance on stakeholders in domestic and overseas markets. Yet there is sufficient evidence of their expansion, especially following the 2008 financial crisis. Emerging markets, led by China, are now increasingly encouraging their SOEs to expand globally as multinational enterprises (MNEs).
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:: Africa and China

85. Inward FDI in Israel and its policy context

Author:: Yair Aharoni
Publication Date:: 01-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: In the first four decades of its existence, Israel was not successful in attracting inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) despite attempts to do so. In the past two decades, Israel have become a haven for multinational enterprises (MNEs) that have taken advantage of its unique assets – among them a skilled, educated workforce and cutting-edge research-and-development (R) capabilities – by establishing production lines or R centers and acquiring dozens of successful start ups. Israel's IFDI stock sharply increased from US$ 4.5 billion in 1990 to US$ 71.3 billion in 2009. It is expected that IFDI will further accelerate following Israel's accession to the OECD in May 2010 and as more firms from emerging market economies, including China and India, will come to appreciate its characteristics as an ideal locational choice. Israel also weathered the global economic crisis well, even though IFDI declined sharply. Israel actively encourages IFDI, mainly in high technology areas. In 2010, the Government also created special incentives to attract research centers of financial institutions.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, India, and Israel

86. Intercity Buses: The Forgotten Mode

Author:: Randal O'Toole
Publication Date:: 06-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The debate over President Obama's fantastically expensive high-speed rail program has obscured the resurgence of a directly competing mode of transportation: intercity buses. Entrepreneurial immigrants from China and recently privatized British transportation companies have developed a new model for intercity bus operations that provides travelers with faster service at dramatically reduced fares.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Infrastructure, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States and China

87. Human resources in China Prepare for opportunity

Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Foreign companies continue to be attracted by the opportunities offered by China's large and rapidly growing economy. China has a population of over 1.3bn, and the size of the economy is likely to grow to just under US$13trn a year at market exchange rates by 2015. Although GDP per head will still be relatively low by the end of the forecast period, at just under US$10,000 a year, this will represent a substantial improvement from just under US$4,500 in 2010. Significant regional disparities within China will persist. The provinces of the eastern seaboard enjoy standards of living well above the national average. However, there are also markets to be found in inland China, where many large cities are located. To some extent, the size of the population and the pace of economic growth belie the challenges of operating in China. Nationwide distribution networks will increasingly be put in place, but the Chinese market is likely still to be a fragmented one by 2015.
Topic:: Demographics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China

88. Renminbi Rules: The Conditional Imminence of the Reserve Currency Transition

Author:: Arvind Subramanian
Publication Date:: 09-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of the recent financial crisis and the ongoing rapid changes in the world economy, the fate of the dollar as the premier international reserve currency is under scrutiny. This paper attempts to answer whether the Chinese renminbi will eclipse the dollar, what will be the timing of, and the prerequisites for this transition, and which of the two countries controls the outcome. The key finding, based on analyzing the last 110 years, is that the size of an economy—measured not just in terms of GDP but also trade and the strength of the external financial position—is the key fundamental correlate of reserve currency status. Further, the conventional view that sterling persisted well beyond the strength of the UK economy is overstated. Although the United States overtook the United Kingdom in terms of GDP in the 1870s, it became dominant in a broader sense encompassing trade and finance only at the end of World War I. And since the dollar overtook sterling in the mid-1920s, the lag between currency dominance and economic dominance was about 10 years rather than the 60-plus years traditionally believed. Applying these findings to the current context suggests that the renminbi could become the premier reserve currency by the end of this decade, or early next decade. But China needs to fulfill a number of conditions—making the reniminbi convertible and opening up its financial system to create deep and liquid markets—to realize renminbi preeminence. China seems to be moving steadily in that direction, and renminbi convertibility will proceed apace not least because it offers China's policymakers a political exit out of its mercantilist growth strategy. The United States cannot in any serious way prevent China from moving in that direction.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: United States and China

89. Chinese Commodity Imports in Ghana and Senegal: Demystifying Chinese Business Strength in Urban West Africa

Author:: Laurence Marfaing and Alena Thiel
Publication Date:: 11-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: Since the beginning of the twenty‐first century, Africa has seen the arrival of a new form of Chinese migration. Largely independent from big Chinese players, these “new entrepreneurial migrants” come to Africa not as workers in the highly prestigious state projects, but rather to follow their own economic interests. Engaging in business activities as diverse as petty manufacturing, printing, pharmaceutical and medical services, restaurants, beauty salons and last but not least, general trade, these independent Chinese migrants are often acknowledged for bringing affordable new commercial services and goods to low‐income households on the African continent. On the other hand, the high visibility of the Chinese entrepreneurial activities has also sparked anti‐Chinese sentiments among many African entrepreneurs.
Topic:: Economics, Imperialism, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Ghana

90. From REDD to Green: A Global Incentive System to Stop Tropical Forest Clearing

Author:: David Wheeler, Robin Kraft, and Dan Hammer
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:: In this paper, we develop and illustrate a prototype incentive system for promoting rapid reduction of forest clearing in tropical countries. Our proposed Tropical Forest Protection Fund (TFPF) is a cash-on-delivery system that rewards independently monitored performance without formal contracts. The system responds to forest tenure problems in many countries by dividing incentive payments between national governments, which command the greatest number of instruments that affect forest clearing, and indigenous communities, which often have tenure rights in forested lands. The TFPF incorporates both monetary and reputational incentives, which are calculated quarterly. The monetary incentives are unconditional cash transfers based on measured performance, while the reputational incentives are publicly disclosed, color-coded performance ratings for each country. The incentives include rewards for: (1) exceeding long-run expectations, given a country's forest clearing history and development status; (2) meeting or exceeding global REDD+ goals; and (3) achieving an immediate reduction in forest clearing. Drawing on monthly forest clearing indicators from the new FORMA (Forest Monitoring for Action) database, we illustrate a prototype TFPF for eight East Asian countries: Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. A system with identical design principles could be implemented by single or multiple donors for individual or multiple forest proprietors within one or more countries, as well as national or local governments in individual countries, tropical regions, or the global pan-tropics. Our results demonstrate the importance of financial flexibility in the design of the proposed TFPF. Its incentives are calculated to induce a massive, rapid reduction of tropical forest clearing. If that occurs, a TFPF for East Asia will need standby authority for disbursements that may total $10–14 billion annually for the next two decades. This financial burden will not persist, however, because the TFPF is designed to self-liquidate once all recipient countries have achieved clearly specified benchmarks. We estimate that the TFPF can be closed by 2070, with its major financial responsibility discharged by 2040.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, East Asia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

91. A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Author:: Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:: 12-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Even though China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. First, a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the WTO process to previous successes. Second, new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broad non-discriminatory trading order.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Israel

92. Global Energy Markets in a Time of Political Change

Author:: Bill White
Publication Date:: 10-2011
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: A shift in relative energy consumption among regions and the development of new, unconventional supplies will be the most significant changes over the next twenty years. The dominant fuels in the world energy market until 2030 will continue to be hydrocarbons — oil, coal, and natural gas. Major shifts will occur, however, among the three fuels, among regions and in their supply. Globally, oil will continue to be the most widely used fuel as it supplies more than 90 percent of the energy for transportation. Coal, now the dominant fuel used for electric power generation, will lose ground to natural gas, a less carbon-intensive hydrocarbon. Natural gas will become the second largest overall supplier and well positioned to replace coal as the leading supplier for electric power. Developing countries will lead the way in overall energy growth, with Chinese and Indian energy demand growing fastest. Energy demand in developed countries will remain flat. For the United States, growth in gas shale and oil shale are likely to be “game changers,” altering the supply picture dramatically.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States, China, and India

93. Russia's modernization reloaded: Political constraints on economic development

Author:: Katri Pynnöniemi
Publication Date:: 11-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Rumour has it that prior to his first visit to Beijing in spring 2008, President Medvedev instructed officials at the Ministry of Trade and Development to take a picture of Moscow that would aptly convey Russia's drive for modernization and innovation to his Chinese hosts. In carrying out his orders, employees from the ministry spent two months looking for a suitable place to photograph, but it is not known whether they were successful in their quest or not. Perhaps the story is only apocryphal, and no such order was ever given. Nevertheless, the anecdote has sown the seeds of doubt in the minds of the country's current leadership that there is actually not that much to see when it comes to the campaign for the 'technological modernization' of Russia.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, Political Economy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Russia, China, and Moscow

94. Trade Disputes Between China and the United States: Growing Pains so Far, Worse Ahead?

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jared C. Woollacott
Publication Date:: 12-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: This study covers the history of Sino-US trade relations with a particular focus on the past decade, during which time each has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Providing a brief history of 19th and 20th century economic relations, this paper examines in detail the trade disputes that have arisen between China and the United States over the past decade, giving dollar estimates for the trade flows at issue. Each country has partaken in their share of protectionist measures, however, US measures have been characteristically defensive, protecting declining industries, while Chinese measures have been characteristically offensive, promoting nascent industries. We also cover administrative and legislation actions within each country that have yet to be the subject of formal complaint at the WTO. This includes an original and comprehensive quantitative summary of US Section 337 intellectual property rights cases. While we view the frictions in Sino-US trade a logical consequence of the rapid increase in flows between the two countries, we caution that each country work within the WTO framework and respect any adverse decisions it delivers so that a protracted protectionist conflict does not emerge. We see the current currency battle as one potential catalyst for such conflict if US and Chinese policymakers fail to manage it judiciously.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States and China

95. Perverse Incentives in the Chinese Health System and Assessment of the April 2009 Reform

Author:: Meghan Bruce
Publication Date:: 10-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Since 1978, China has been primarily market-focused in its provision of health care and social services. The market-driven health care system has been characterized by perverse incentives for individual providers, patients, and hospitals that are inducing improper provision of care: overprescription of pharmaceuticals and hightech testing, lack of effective primary care and gatekeeping, and competition for patients instead of referral. The national health care reform document that was made public in April 2009 recognizes this failure of the market in health care in China. The document suggests potential policies for improvement on the current system that are focused primarily on a targeted increase in government funding and an increased, changing role for the government. We assess the potential of this national health care reform to achieve the stated goals, and conclude that the reform as designed is necessary but insufficient. For the reform to meet its goals, the promised increase in funding should be accompanied by improved data collection, regional piloting, and a strong regulatory and purchasing role for the government in aligning incentives for individual and institutional payers, providers, and patients.
Topic:: Health and Markets
Political Geography:: China and Israel

96. Patient Preferences, Concerns, and Satisfaction with Providers before the Chinese Urban Health System Reform: A Social Groups Analysis

Author:: Qunhong Shen and Liyang Tang
Publication Date:: 09-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:: Many Chinese express dissatisfaction with their healthcare system with the popular phrase Kan bing nan, kan bing gui ("medical treatment is difficult to access and expensive"). Critics have cited inefficiencies in delivery and poor quality of services. Determining the pattern of patient satisfaction with health services in China-and the causes of patient dissatisfaction-may help to improve health care not only in China but in countries in similar predicaments throughout the world.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Social Stratification, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: China

97. International investment law and media disputes: a complement to WTO law

Author:: Luke Eric Peterson
Publication Date:: 01-2010
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: The recent high-stakes dispute between Google and China over censorship and cyber-security has spawned renewed discussion of the international trade law protections that internet and media companies may enjoy. Less recognized, however, is a perhaps more powerful legal tool in the arsenal of internet and media companies engaging in cross-border investment s, namely international investment law.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Mass Media, and Law
Political Geography:: China

98. Are the Chinese in Africa More Innovative than the Africans? Comparing Chinese and Nigerian Entrepreneurial Migrants' Cultures of Innovation

Author:: Dirk Kohnert
Publication Date:: 07-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:: The remarkable influx of Chinese migrant entrepreneurs in West Africa has been met with growing resistance from established African entrepreneurs. Whether the former have a competitive edge over the latter because of distinctive sociocultural traits or whether the Chineseʹ s supposed effectiveness is just a characteristic feature of any trading diaspora is open to question. This comparative exploratory study of Chinese and Nigerian entrepreneurial migrants in Ghana and Benin provides initial answers to these questions. Apparently, the cultural stimuli for migrant drivers of change are not restricted to inherited value systems or religions, such as a Protestant ethic or Confucianism; rather, they are continually adapted and invented anew by transnational migration networks in a globalized world. There is no evidence of the supposed superiority of the innovative culture of Chinese entrepreneurial migrants versus that of African entrepreneurial migrants. Rather, there exist trading diasporas which have a generally enhanced innovative capacity vis‐à‐vis local entrepreneurs, regardless of the national culture in which they are embedded. In addition, the rivalry of Chinese and Nigerian migrant entrepreneurs in African markets does not necessarily lead to the often suspected cut‐throat competition. Often the actions of each group are complementary to those of the other. Under certain conditions they even contribute to poverty alleviation in the host country.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, and Migration
Political Geography:: Africa and China

99. Approaches to Fostering Productivity Growth in Brazil, China and India

Author:: John Whalley, Manmohan Agarwal, and Yao Li
Publication Date:: 04-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Productivity growth is a significant contributor to GDP growth, particularly to increases in per capita income. However, there is considerable ambiguity regarding how to measure the concept of technical progress, and consequently on policies that would foster productivity growth. Brazil, China and India, three important emerging economies, are seeking to foster productivity growth through encouraging innovation and technology transfers from the more developed economies. But given the ambiguities about how to encourage innovation and technology transfers, governments in these countries adopted a plethora of policies in the hope that the combination will be effective. This ambiguity can also be seen in the much slower growth of productivity in Brazil than China, even though Brazil has scored higher on the World Bank's Knowledge Assessment Methodology.
Topic:: Development, Emerging Markets, Markets, Science and Technology, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:: China, India, and Brazil

100. Innovation and the Visible Hand: China, Indigenous Innovation, and the Role of Government Procurement

Author:: Nathaniel Ahrens
Publication Date:: 07-2010
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Indigenous innovation has become the greatest immediate source of economic friction between the United States and China. This trend is not unique to these two countries; policy makers globally are actively trying to stimulate domestic innovation. The burgeoning markets for biotech and environment-related products and services and, potentially even more important, countries' efforts to emerge from the global economic slowdown all reinforce this trend. Mindful of this global scene, China has made indigenous innovation one of the core elements of its attempt to make a structural shift up the industrial value chain.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States and China

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS