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52. Indian FDI falls in global economic crisis: Indian multinationals tread cautiously
- Author:
- Jaya Prakash Pradhan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- Just over a year ago, outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from India seemed to be on a path of rapid and sustained growth. Its annual average growth of 98% during 2004–07 had been unprecedented , much ahead of OFDI growth from other emerging markets like China (74%), Malaysia (70%), Russia (53%), and the Republic of Korea (51%), although from a much lower base. Much of this recent growth had been fuelled by large-scale overseas acquisitions, however, and it faltered when the global financial crisis that started in late 2007 made financing acquisitions harder.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, South Asia, Malaysia, and Korea
53. The United States and the Asia-Pacific Region: National Interests and Strategic Imperatives
- Author:
- James J. Przystup
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- From its earliest days, the United States has been engaged in trade with East Asia. In February 1784, the Empress of China left New York harbor, sailing east to China, arriving at Macau on the China coast in August of that year. The ship returned to the United States the following May with a consignment of Chinese goods, which generated a profit of $30,000. In 1844, China granted the United States trading rights in the Treaty of Wanghia.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, and Australia/Pacific
54. Soft budget constraints in China: Evidence from the Guangdong hospital industry
- Author:
- Karen Eggleston, Mingshan Lu, Congdong Li, Jian Wang, Zhe Yang, Jing Zhang, and Yu-Chu Shen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Using data from 276 general acute hospitals in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong Province from 2002 and 2004, we construct a preliminary metric of budget constraint softness. We find that, controlling for hospital size, ownership, and other factors, a Chinese hospital's probability of receiving government financial support is inversely associated with the hospital's previous net revenue, an association consistent with soft budget constraints.
- Topic:
- Government, Health, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
55. Effects of the Financial Crisis on The U.S.-China Economic Relationship
- Author:
- Eswar S. Prasad
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The U.S. and China are two of the dominant economies in the world today and the nature of their relationship has far-reaching implications for the smooth functioning of the global trade and financial systems. These two economies are becoming increasingly integrated with each other through the flows of goods, financial capital, and people. These rising linkages of course now stretch far beyond just trade and finance, to a variety of geopolitical and global security issues. Getting this relationship right is therefore of considerable importance.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
56. China's Employment Crisis – A Stimulus for Policy Change?
- Author:
- Günter Schucher
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- In the face of severe job problems, China's government has adopted a huge stimulus package in a bid to achieve eight per cent economic growth, which is said to guarantee at least enough jobs for the new entrants to the labour market. The real situation, however, will be much grimmer than statistics indicate. Unregistered groups like unemployed rural migrants, job-searching college graduates, laid-off workers and others together with the officially registered unemployed and the new market entrants could add up to 42 million altogether, while even the most optimistic estimates say only around 15 million new jobs could be created in 2009. Nevertheless, the stimulus package demonstrates an at least temporary shift in economic policy from capital-intensive to labour-intensive growth. Additionally, the new initiatives to boost social-security spending could help to address the grievances of the most vulnerable groups in the labour market. The Chinese government's reaction to the emerging employment crisis once again demonstrates the often underestimated adaptability of China's leadership.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China
57. External imbalances and the G20
- Author:
- Stephen Grenville
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- International external imbalances have been blamed for playing a central role in the Global Financial Crisis. China's large external surplus usually figures prominently in these explanations. While a more balanced account of the causes of the crisis would give only a modest role to external imbalances there seems little doubt that some adjustment of these imbalances over the next few years is both inevitable and desirable, not because external imbalances in themselves are inherently undesirable, but because some of the specific components of today's current balances are unsustainable. Markets could bring about these necessary adjustments over time. History, however, tells us that market-driven adjustments are often accompanied by exchange-rate overshooting and trade- threatening protectionist responses.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China
58. Beyond Market Forces: Regulating the Global Security Industry
- Author:
- James Cockayne, Emily Speers Mears, Alison Gurin, Iveta Cherneva, Sheila Oviedo, and Dylan Yaeger
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute (IPI)
- Abstract:
- In late 2008, seventeen states, including the US, UK, China, Iraq, Afghanistan, and others, endorsed the Montreux Document on Pertinent International Legal Obligations and Good Practices for States related to Operations of Private Military and Security Companies during Armed Conflict (2008). This provides important guidance to states in regulating private military and security companies (PMSCs). However, there is a need to do more, to provide increased guidance to the industry and ensure standards are enforced.
- Topic:
- Security, Globalization, Markets, International Security, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, and United Kingdom
59. Assessing the slowdown in China
- Publication Date:
- 04-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- Growth in China has slowed dramatically over the past year from a blistering pace of over 13% in 2007 to just 6.1% in 2009 Q1. A turning in the domestic investment cycle has been coupled with a dramatic slowdown in external demand. Despite an unprecedented fiscal package, in the near term we expect growth to dip below 6% but it should begin to recover strongly towards the end of this year as the fiscal stimulus comes on stream, rising to 10% by end-2010. Indeed, some green shoots of recovery are already emerging with a pickup in manufacturing new orders and strong growth in credit. Domestic demand may be recovering but the impact of the external crisis on China’s growth prospects is uncertain. Nevertheless, more fundamental downside risks remain if rising unemployment leads to social instability or if an increase in loss-making investments uncovers weakness in the banking sector. By looking at what has driven the recent slowdown and how this compares with previous downturns, we can shed light on China’s prospects going forward and the major risks.
- Topic:
- Economics and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
60. China's Economic Policy in the Time of the Global Financial Crisis: Which Way Out?
- Author:
- Margot Schüller and Yun Schüllerr-Zhou
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- This contribution analyses the impact of the global financial crisis on the Chinese economy and the policies implemented by the Chinese government to cope with it. We argue, first, that China has not been able to decouple its economic performance from that of the U.S. and other developed countries. Second, although economic growth in the second quarter of 2009 showed that the stimulus package is working, the current development does not seem to be sustainable. In order to avoid another round of overheating, the government needs to adjust its stimulus policy. Third, the current crisis offers opportunities to conduct necessary structural adjustments in favour of more market-based and innovative industries, more investment by private companies and a stronger role of private consumption in economic growth. Fourth, with the external demand from the OECD countries declining, Chinese export companies need to further diversify their international markets and re-orient their production and sales strategies to some extent towards the domestic market.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
61. Sharing the Pain: The Global Struggle Over Savings
- Author:
- Michael Pettis
- Publication Date:
- 11-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- In September, the Obama administration imposed tariffs on Chinese tires. In October, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced it would launch an investigation into imports of seamless steel pipes from China. That same month, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S.–China Business Council, two groups that in the past have defended Chinese policies, testified to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative that Chinese contracting rules, technical standards, and licensing requirements were protectionist.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Asia
62. The Great Regression? Financial Crisis in an Age of Global Interdependence
- Author:
- Vadim Kononenko, Raimo Väyrynen, Toby Archer, Kristian Kurki (ed.), and Matti Nojonen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The financial crisis and the ensuing global economic downturn have been the focal point of news coverage and policy analysis for over a year now, and speculation has been rife about how things will pan out. At one extreme are those who shrug the situation off as a significant yet transient dent in economic development, with marginal repercussions on the global system. At the other end are those touting the crisis as the first step in an epoch-making transition in the global power balance, where rapidly expanding economies like China, Brazil and India will make gains on the hitherto dominant developed nations, shifting the distribution of power in the world. Whatever the eventual outcome, there is no denying that the crisis's impact on international relations will be significant.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, Power Politics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China, India, and Brazil
63. "Can't Buy Me Love": Will the global economic downturn help Russia consolidate its influence in post-Soviet Eurasia?
- Author:
- Igor Torbakov and Vadim Kononenko
- Publication Date:
- 09-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- As the Kremlin believes that the global economic downturn is increasing the trend towards greater regionalism, the strategic conclusion is to strengthen Russia's position as the centre of its "own region" - post-Soviet Eurasia. In order to enhance its geopolitical posture in the ex-Soviet area, Russia has been pursuing a two- track policy: it is buying up assets from, and giving out loans to, its distressed neighbours on a massive scale. Several forces appear to be working at cross-purposes with the Kremlin's ambitions: 1) the state of Russia's own economic system; 2) the wiliness and cunning maneuvering of Moscow's "allies"; and 3) the growing competition on the part of the other centres of power - the European Union and China. Ultimately, the Kremlin's desperate efforts to turn Russia into a geopolitical leader of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are likely to be frustrated by Russia's lack of a coherent long-term strategy and by its socio-political system's dearth of appeal.
- Topic:
- Globalization and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
64. Country Economic Forecasts: China
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- A turn in the domestic investment cycle has been coupled with a dramatic slowdown in external demand, leaving China weathering storms on both fronts. But with the government announcing an unprecedented fiscal package and with fewer structural problems to contend with than in earlier downturns, China is likely to fare better than in previous domestically-driven slowdowns such as in the early-1980s and 1990s.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China
65. Global Imbalances and Financial Reform with Examples from China
- Author:
- Raghuram G. Rajan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- I will focus on a familiar issue, the problem of global current account imbalances, and will describe how financial sector reform can help narrow them, using examples from China. The United States is running a current account deficit approaching 6.25 percent of its GDP and over 1.5 percent of world GDP. To help finance it, the United States pulls in 70 percent of all global capital flows. Clearly, such a large deficit is unsustainable in the long run. The current situation has its roots in a series of crises over the last decade that were caused by excessive investment, such as the Japanese asset bubble, the crises in emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, and most recently, the IT bubble. Investment has fallen off sharply since, with only very cautious recovery. This is particularly true of emerging Asia and Japan. The policy response to the slowdown in investment has differed across countries. In the industrial countries, accommodative policies such as expansionary budgets and low interest rates have led to consumption- or credit-fueled growth, particularly in Anglo-Saxon countries. Government savings have fallen, especially in the United States and Japan, and household savings have virtually disappeared in some countries with housing booms. By contrast, the crises were a wake-up call in a number of emerging market countries. Historically lax policies have been tightened, with some countries running primary fiscal surpluses for the first time, and most bringing down inflation through tight monetary policy. With corporations cautious, and governments abandoning the grandiose projects of the past, investment has fallen off. Instead, exports have led growth. Many emerging markets have run current account surpluses for the first time. In emerging Asia, a corollary has been a buildup of international reserves.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Reform, Finance, Economy, and Deficit
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
66. Five Persistent Myths About China's Banking System
- Author:
- Jonathan Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 07-2006
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- The Cato Journal
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Of all the various topics and issues facing observers of the Chinese economy, it is safe to say that none arouses more spirited debate than the role of the financial system, and in particular the state of Chinese banks. Is the mainland on the verge of a financial crisis? Has the recent economic overheating created a new flood of bad loans? Do banks know how to allocate capital, or are they simply quasi-fiscal agencies acting at the mercy of the government? And does the rapidly opening financial system represent a gold mine or a “black hole” for foreign investors? The answers to these questions are not always straightforward, but in our experience the truth lies very much away from the extremes so often presented in the financial press. Chinese banks are by no means “out of the woods,” first and foremost because they remain stateowned institutions, but they are now well advanced from their situation only a decade ago. This means that the economy is protected from the risk of a financial crisis—but, on the other hand, the banking sector is more a sunset industry than an exciting growth sector. There are a number of myths about banks and the financial system in China but the following are the most important and most persistent: (1) China’s cost of capital is far too low; (2) Mainland banks are unreconstructed quasi-fiscal agencies; (3) Bank recapitalization is a sham; (4) Banks are already “out of the woods”; and (5) The Chinese banking system is an exciting growth industry. Let us now examine these five myths.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, Finance, Economic Growth, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia