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42. Starr Forum: The Future of US-China Relations
- Author:
- Nicholas Burns and Yasheng Huang
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Starr Forum: The Future of US-China Relations | Tuesday, February 17, 2026 Speakers: Nicholas Burns is the Goodman Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He is the founder and faculty chair of the Future of Diplomacy Project and a faculty affiliate at Harvard’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. Burns worked in the United States government for over three decades, serving six presidents and nine secretaries of state. Most recently, he served as the US ambassador to the People's Republic of China from 2021-2025, leading public servants from forty-eight US government agencies at the US mission to China in overseeing one of America's most important bilateral relationships. Moderator: Yasheng Huang is the Epoch Foundation Professor of Global Economics and Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management. He also serves as the faculty director of the MIT-China Program at the Center for International Studies. From 2013 to 2017, he served as an associate dean of MIT Sloan’s GlobalPartnership programs and its Action Learning initiatives. His previous appointments include faculty positions at the University of Michigan and at Harvard Business School. Huang is the author of 11 books in both English and Chinese and of many academic papers. His most recent book, “The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to its Decline”, was a 2023 Best Book of the Year by Foreign Affairs magazine.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
43. The WhatsApp World Order: Learning to Live with the New Global Political Economy
- Author:
- David Henig
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
- Abstract:
- An inter-connectivity and technology revolution transformed the world over the last 30 years – with AI being the latest instalment. Multiple, interlocking, instant networks now cover the world like an ever-expanding changing set of WhatsApp groups, affecting all countries and governments. Today’s trade is responsive, resilient, diverse, and above all global as a result. Modern globalisation has in turn proved resistant to the many claims of its demise. Yet clearly this is not creating a happy world. Politics has not kept pace with the changes. National control, stability, optimism and trust are as a result particularly in short supply. At a macro level, challenger economies – most notably China – are engaged in mutual suspicion with the former hegemons EU and US, not helped by issues around subsidies and access to markets. All the major powers are undermining existing global rules while simultaneously suggesting an impossible retreat into self-sufficient manufacturing as they seek to come to terms with today’s economy. They are not helped by political debate that largely misunderstands the moment. Meanwhile corporate concentration in global markets has entrenched dominant private actors who navigate diverse regulations but can undermine competitiveness and governments. Political turmoil is enhanced by demographic shifts to ageing populations, social media, and citizen dislocation in the face of intense societal change and financial insecurity. Government failure to deal with challenges they are wrongly assumed to have created is too often simply leading to a search for scapegoats. Matters may even get worse given that the major powers have weaponised trade to a degree in recent years. Many urge them to intensify planning for economic warfare. This is turning dependencies from an inevitable by-product of greater product availability to a dangerous weakness. Such approaches threaten peace and prosperity, reflecting frustration that public demand for control in an inter-connected world cannot be met. Better approaches need to be found, that start with accepting today’s technology-enabled world including a strong China and other emerging economies. Governments must recognise that adaptive institutions will be more effective than trying to second-guess complex supply chains or put in place extensive new national rule-sets, particularly given their diverse public policy objectives. They must then protect where they must, prioritise where they can including for national security, and guide the public through their choices based on the best information that they have. For Europe in particular, long-standing respect for and implementation of rules that balance societal interests is more important than protecting all old industries. Internationally, agreements among friendly countries can be helpful but will not be sufficient. What is required is all countries accepting and enhancing core trade principles which were specifically designed to prevent a 1930s style global descent into mutual suspicion. WTO rules should be modernised to reflect today’s inter-dependencies and the dangers of weaponisation, rebalancing commitments on the basis of a broad definition of reciprocity, and avoiding of concentration of supply when countries grow. This though can only happen satisfactorily when the largest powers understand the need to discipline their own behaviours. Challenges such as dealing with dominant companies and scarce raw materials will never be easily resolved. Improvements will require international cooperation similarly based on trust, and should draw upon global networks of expertise that have developed as another result of today’s inter-connected world. Economies do adjust to new circumstances. Governments must therefore stop decrying resilience as an easy but incorrect way to be seen doing something, and focus instead on rebuilding economies and societies that adjust to today’s emerging inter-connected global order.
- Topic:
- Globalization, European Union, Trade, Artificial Intelligence, and Connectivity
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America
44. Mind the minds: China’s education strategy and its implications for NATO
- Author:
- Veronica Strina
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Education lies at the heart of China’s grand strategy as it advances its global ambitions and reshapes strategic competition in nontraditional security terms, compelling NATO to rethink the ‘China challenge’ beyond the military domain. China is racing at unprecedented speed to become a global education superpower, fuelling its scientific and technological dominance. Yet deep-seated structural weaknesses within its socio-educational system, together with mounting international mistrust, risk slowing its ascent. NATO in its education and training institutions would be well placed to cultivate the critical thinking necessary for securing the intellectual edge.
- Topic:
- NATO, Education, Science and Technology, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
45. Between Giants: Strategic Autonomy for East Asia’s Middle Powers in the U.S.–China Rivalry
- Author:
- Yoochan Kong
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- The intensifying rivalry between the United States and China places South Korea in a delicate strategic position where great-power competition pushes Seoul to choose sides. However, the concept of strategic autonomy shows that middle powers can still navigate a narrow but meaningful path of agency. This paper focuses on how South Korea can sustain strategic autonomy amid U.S.–China rivalry by recalibrating its alliance with the United States, protecting itself from Chinese economic and political coercion, and diversifying partnerships in security, technology, and diplomacy. The central research question asks how South Korea can strengthen its autonomy while managing asymmetric dependence on the United States and growing vulnerability to China. Drawing on historical alliances, the THAAD deployment, and debates over technology alliances, the paper argues that autonomy is not neutrality but, rather, proactive leadership, institutional resilience, and a commitment to democratic values. By doing so, South Korea can shift from a reactive state to a proactive actor shaping a regional order based on freedom and stability.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Economics, Science and Technology, Alliance, Rivalry, Strategic Autonomy, Coercion, Middle Powers, and Conflict Analysis
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America
46. Growth without profits: how will ‘involution’ in China end?
- Author:
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses China’s economic ‘involution’, a phenomenon characterised by intense competition in overcrowded markets such as electric vehicles (EVs), price wars, declining profit margins and ongoing resource misallocation via ‘zombie firms’. Using data from Chinese listed companies, we decompose firm profits and find that, while firm-level total factor productivity (TFP) has risen since 2020, markups are falling. More granularly, firms across the productivity spectrum are compressing their profit margins to compete for market share. The fact that even companies without productivity gains are lowering prices has contributed to a growing share of loss-making zombie firms, which survive on the back of bank support or government subsidies, hindering consolidation. China’s policy efforts emphasise anti-involution measures including regulation of predatory pricing and promotion of orderly exits, but they have not yet solved the fundamental problem, as unproductive firms continue to operate. For Europe, this has heightened the concern that China’s involution-driven growth model is fuelling export expansion through persistent low-price competition, increasing the likelihood that the EU will strengthen its trade-defence measures, alongside efforts to raise its own productivity.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Economic Growth, Trade, Trade Policy, and Global Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Asia
47. Tackling India's jobs plight: underutilised levers and lessons from China
- Author:
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Rajeswari Sengupta
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- Despite strong GDP growth and a favourable demographic profile, India faces an impending jobs crisis. A large share of the workforce remains employed in low-productivity agriculture, while many new labour market entrants are absorbed into the persistently large informal sector. By contrast, China’s rapid ascent was driven by manufacturing-led, export-oriented industrialisation, underpinned by large inflows of foreign direct investment and sustained technology transfer. India’s manufacturing base remains modest in contrast. The bulk of well-paid, formal employment continues to be concentrated in the high-skill services sector. This paper contrasts the development trajectories of these two economies and identifies several underutilised jobs-growth levers in India: manufacturing, goods exports, manufacturing-oriented foreign direct investment and innovation. All of these remain underdeveloped, yet together they offer a pathway to more labour-absorbing, durable growth. Leveraging them effectively would be central to achieving India’s ‘Viksit Bharat 2047’ ambition of attaining high-income status. The scale of India’s challenge to employ eight to ten million labour-market entrants per year implies that job creation must become an explicit policy priority. This calls for greater trade openness, particularly with Asia and Europe, to integrate India into Asia-centric global supply chains as an alternative to China. Labour market reform is equally critical, making the effective implementation of the new labour codes essential. Strengthening innovation ecosystems and realigning education and skills policies to support industrialisation are also key. Without these structural shifts, India’s current pattern of jobless growth risks transforming its demographic dividend into a long-term liability.
- Topic:
- Employment, Economic Growth, Fiscal Policy, Trade Policy, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- China, South Asia, India, and Asia
48. The European Union’s external imbalances: past, future and policy
- Author:
- Zsolt Darvas, Costanza Greppi Maturana, Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, Camille Reverdy, Bo Sangers, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- External imbalances have returned to the policy agenda, partly because current account imbalances have widened for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of the late 2000s. However, while China’s large surplus was the main counterpart to the United States’s deficit before the GFC, both China and the European Union are now projected to run comparable surpluses. The shift in the EU current account from broadly balanced in the early 2000s to a persistent surplus of around 3 percent of GDP reflects the elimination of deficits in southern and eastern Europe by 2012, driven largely by declining investment. These were not offset by a fall in surpluses elsewhere in the EU and the EU’s current account surplus is likely to persist well beyond the medium term, until demographic shifts reduce savings rates. This is by itself unlikely to create significant problems for the global economy. However, it highlights an internal issue for several EU countries and for the EU as a whole: structurally weak domestic investment. Not all investment-enhancing policies will reduce the surplus. For example, transitioning to fully-funded pension systems could support capital market development, investment and growth, but might also raise savings rates. But there is plenty of scope to both stimulate investment and lower the surplus: reforms to improve the business environment, further deepening and integration of European capital markets and EU fiscal rules reform to better support public investment.
- Topic:
- Demographics, European Union, Investment, Fiscal Policy, Trade Policy, Capital, and Global Economy
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe
49. To what extent can green infrastructure investment mitigate China’s clean-energy overcapacity?
- Author:
- Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Haoxin Mu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Bruegel
- Abstract:
- China’s industrial policies have made it the global leader in the manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines and other renewable technologies, but at the cost of severe overcapacity that is now compressing margins across the entire sector. This paper evaluates greater investment in power infrastructure as a potential solution to stimulate energy demand, reduce curtailment and alleviate the renewable tech manufacturing overcapacity problem. Using scenario analysis, we show that grid expansion provides meaningful near-term demand relief, though supply-side consolidation remains necessary to restore durable market equilibrium.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Investment, Trade Policy, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
50. Eradication of Sparrows and the Great Famine in China
- Author:
- Eyal G. Frank, Shaoda Wang, Qinyun Wang, Xuebin Wang, and Yang You
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Scientists, politicians, and popular media frequently argue that the continued degradation of ecosystems will negatively affect human well-being. Warnings regarding the devastating consequences of ecosystem collapses have emphasized the complex interactions between natural systems, particularly how agriculture connects with surrounding ecosystems. While the potentially catastrophic costs of these events have long been theorized, empirical evidence remains scarce. The rarity of ecosystem collapses, the difficulty of clearly tracing their triggers, and the lack of detailed data pose significant barriers to rigorous empirical investigations.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, History, Famine, and Ecosystem
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia