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251. Ice panda: navigating China’s hybrid Antarctic agenda

Author:
Elizabeth Buchanan
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Antarctica is often overlooked in strategic discussions, but its role in geopolitical competition deserves attention. This report assesses the continents importance to Australian security, China’s hybrid Antarctic activity, and the need for Australia to develop a balancing strategy capable of bolstering the Antarctic Treaty and ‘pushing back’ against growing Chinese power in Antarctica. Antarctica offers significant strategic advantages for the People's Republic of China (PRC). Although Beijing's actions in Antarctica may not overtly violate the Antarctic Treaty (AT), they effectively undermine its principles and, by extension, Australia's strategic interests. Currently, the PRC is adeptly navigating the AT System to challenge the status quo without explicitly breaching the treaty. China's domestic policies, which merge civil and military sectors, appear to contravene the spirit of the AT's military prohibitions, even if they have not yet resulted in direct military activity on the continent. This evolving dynamic underscores the pressing need for Australia to safeguard the existing Antarctic status quo. With robust Australian foreign and security prioritization, the AT can counter Beijing's growing ambitions, which may directly impact Australian interests. We must protect and uphold the principles of the AT. With diverse domestic and international priorities, Australia must not neglect Antarctica, as Beijing continues to exploit the strategic gap left by our limited focus. Australia, with its rich history and commitment to Antarctica, must assert its role as an Antarctic claimant and clarify that China's presence is contingent on Australian and other claimants' cooperation. It's time for Australia to lead in Antarctica and protect our strategic interests.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and Antarctica

252. Chinese foreign policy in 2024: crisis management and global governance

Author:
Thomas Eder
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This Trend Report examines key aspects of Chinese foreign policy in 2024, emphasizing three critical questions: the Taiwan situation, China’s stance in the Ukraine conflict, and its global governance reform proposals. The analysis suggests that the likelihood of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan remains low due to electoral outcomes and various deterrent factors. China is expected to intensify non-physical threats. Economic considerations, including reliance on exports and partnerships with Europe, deter China from escalating support for Russia. The "Global South" is likely to support China’s global governance reforms, driven by resentment against perceived US double standards. European decision-makers are advised to align strategies with China’s nuanced approach, emphasizing reassurances on Taiwan, clear red lines on Russia, and increased engagement with the "Global South" while upholding UN principles.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Governance, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China and Asia

253. The European Union can go green and lower dependencies on China

Author:
Luke Patey
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Some Western pundits see the ongoing policy push from the European Union to de-risk supply chain dependencies on China as a threat to gains from decades of economic globalisation. Others regard Chinese industrial strengths in green technologies as unbreakable and see attempts to diversify the EU’s reliance as setting back global efforts to fight climate change. Yet, diversifying sources of critical minerals away from China and other large suppliers is a necessity in today’s volatile geopolitical climate. As well as actively pursuing new partnerships overseas to lower large dependencies on single sources, EU member states should fully harness new regulatory tools, such as the Critical Raw Materials Act, to diversify sources of critical minerals and exploit the Net-Zero Industry Act to support the production of green technologies and leverage European resources, capabilities and know-how. Contrary to conventional thinking, Europe is not starting from scratch when it comes to developing strategic supply chains in green, digital and defence technologies. Over time, there is ample potential for de-risking critical minerals to have a positive impact on the EU’s supply chain resilience and its contribution to lowering global emissions.
Topic:
European Union, Green Technology, Supply Chains, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
China and Europe

254. Forecasting Chinese expansion into Central Asia

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
In early April 2024, China signed a two-year enhanced security cooperation agreement with Uzbekistan, which was reached during a meeting between Chinese Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Interior Minister Pulat Bobojonov in Tashkent. Some believe this pact was prompted by escalating international and regional competition for Central Asia, mainly because it came amid moves by international and regional powers in the five countries. Moreover, as China expands activities in this region to capitalize on cooperation potentials and opportunities, its influence in the five Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, is steadily rising, mainly encouraged by Moscow's preoccupation with its war in Ukraine. The development is raising questions about the future of China's presence in Central Asia in the coming years.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Strategic Competition, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Central Asia, and Asia

255. China's Outbound Investment Policy in Recent Years

Author:
Jiyoung Moon, Munsu Kang, Minsuk Park, and Yongsun Kim
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
China's Outbound Direct Investment (ODI) strategy has been changing along with its national development strategy. In the early 2000s, China launched “Going Out (走出去)” strategy to encourage domestic companies’ overseas expansion, which laid the foundation for Chinese companies to venture abroad. Since then, the Chinese government has actively simplified administrative procedures to encourage ODI on the part of Chinese companies. Under the Xi Jinping administration, China's ODI has been functioning as a significant tool for the national development strategy. China’s ODI has increased particularly in strategic industries, such as high-tech industries, critical raw materials, and emerging industries. However, the explosive expansion of Chinese ODI in high-tech industries has led to the increased screening of Chinese ODI especially in developed countries. Through a series of events, the strategy of China's ODI has undergone various changes, with Chinese government strengthening its ODI management. Nevertheless, China’s strategy of aligning ODI with its national strategies continues, and its influence has recently expanded to Global South countries.
Topic:
Development, Science and Technology, Investment, and Industry
Political Geography:
China and Asia

256. The European China Strategy to Enhance Economic Security

Author:
Hyun Jean Lee
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The recent strategy change of the European countries toward China has identifiable triggering factors such as the continuation of high growth in the Chinese economy, rising status of China in the international community, and China’s FDI expansion. The West has criticized the Chinese Communist Party’s dealing with human rights issues and media control, which was further aggravated by China’s pro-Russian stance upon the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Eventually, the European countries responded with confrontational strategies against China. This study analyzes these recent de-risking methods of the EU and four European countries – i.e., Germany, France, United Kingdom, and Poland – regarding economic relations with China. Finally, the Brief concludes with an assessment of the impact of the recent changes in Europe’s China strategy on Korea and policy recommendations.
Topic:
Human Rights, Foreign Direct Investment, International Community, Economic Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

257. An Overview of International Discourse surrounding China and Its Implications

Author:
Jai Chul Heo
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study began with the idea that the international community’s discourse on China may not be produced, distributed, and utilized separately in each country, but instead formed within a huge global network. Building upon this idea, this study tried to examine the essential substance of discourse on China, who produces it, and how it is being distributed and utilized in the international community. At the same time, we examined the political dynamics under which the international community’s discourse on China is produced. This study first selected the issues of the 2019–2020 Hong Kong protests, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the COVID-19 pandemic and conducted a case analysis of the international community’s discourse on China, focusing on these issues. This analysis produced many interesting facts. In particular, we found that political images of the BRI tended to have a stronger influence than direct experience with the initiative in shaping the international community’s discourse on the BRI. Through the analysis of these three cases, it became possible to identify countries, regions, and organizations that play an important role in shaping the international community’s discourse on China. Among countries or regions, the United States and the United Kingdom appear to be the most prominent actors in shaping the international community’s discourse on China. In addition, Japan and Taiwan, both of whom are China’s neighbors and have a tense relationship with China in the context of establishing order in the Asian region, also emerged as important actors. Accordingly, this study analyzed in more depth the mechanisms of how the discourse on China is being formed within the relevant countries and regions, targeting the U.S., EU (UK), Taiwan, and Japan. At the same time, we also analyze the formation of discourse on China within Korea, along with ASEAN, which is becoming increasingly important geopolitically, as can be seen from the U.S.’ Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) Strategy and China’s BRI.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), International Community, COVID-19, and Discourse
Political Geography:
China and Asia

258. Investigating the Effect of the U.S. Semiconductor Export Controls on China

Author:
Hyok Jung Kim, Jonghyuk Oh, and Hyuk Hu Kwon
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
his report examines the significant impact of U.S. semiconductor export controls imposed under the Biden administration in October 2022. These controls, which target a broad range of semiconductor manufacturing facilities and AI chips, are part of a strategy aimed at curbing China’s advancement in critical technologies. A notable 32.5% decline in China’s imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment has been observed, particularly in regions with advanced production capabilities and foreign company operations, such as those involving Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. While Korea experienced substantial drops in exports to China, the Netherlands saw an increase, reflecting its dominance in specific technologies like lithography. The AI chip sector has also been affected, with China turning to downgraded chips due to restricted access to high-performance models from companies like Nvidia. South Korea must adapt by strengthening its upstream semiconductor industry, considering reshoring production, and collaborating with international partners to mitigate risks. As U.S. export controls continue to evolve, the global semiconductor industry may face increased fragmentation, making strategic responses from affected nations essential to maintain competitiveness. Additionally, ongoing monitoring and adaptation to the dynamic regulatory environment shaped by these export controls are crucial.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Exports, Artificial Intelligence, Imports, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

259. Hidden Champions of the Chinese Economy: Implications for Korea

Author:
Seungshin Lee
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This paper reviews China's policy of nurturing small and medium sized enterprises. The Chinese government is expanding its establishment of national manufacturing innovation centers necessary to promote national strategies. It plays a very important role in the financial support process for these hidden champions. This is because the government certification process to identify hidden champions is linked to direct and indirect financial support using government and private capital. This paper attempted to analyze the management situation and export competitiveness of listed hidden champions. As a result of analyzing the trade statistics of materials, parts, and equipment from 2012 to 2022, when China's policy of cultivating foster hidden champions was fully implemented, the global trade balance of the China's materials, parts, and equipment industry increased significantly from a deficit of $55.6 billion in 2012 to a surplus of $264.1 billion in 2022. The improvement of China's competitiveness in the fields of materials, parts, and equipment can also be seen as a change in the trade specialization index (TSI) of these industries. Looking at China's global trade specialization index for materials, parts, and equipment, it was import-specialized at -0.033 in 2012, but rose to 0.100 in 2022, improving export competitiveness. Korea should recognize the changes in the trade and industrial structure between Korea and China and form a new paradigm of economic cooperation to overcome the limitations of economic exchanges between the two countries. China, which used to be seen as a manufacturing base for other countries, must now be seen as an advanced country in new industries with which the current structure of economic cooperation structure must be modified accordingly.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Innovation, Trade, and Capital
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Korea

260. Export Controls Game: Rethinking Global Integration

Author:
Sangjun Yea
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The article discusses how geopolitical interests are influencing trade policies and global supply chains, leading to a reevaluation of international relationships. The U.S. and China are specifically highlighted, with the U.S. implementing export controls on semiconductors to prevent China's military advancement, while China responds with its own export restrictions on essential raw materials. Using a game-theoretic model, the study illustrates how countries use export control measures to balance security interests and economic benefits, ultimately impacting the global semiconductor supply chain and production decisions of multinational corporations.
Topic:
Exports, Trade Policy, Economic Integration, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

261. Brazil-ASEAN Relations and the Energy Transition

Author:
Beatriz Pfeifer
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
On the occasion of the XXXII meeting of the Analysis Group on China, Ambassador Piragibe dos Santos Terragô, Nuki Agya Utama, Executive Director of the ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE) and Juliana Rangel do Nascimento, Energy Research Analyst at Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) share their views on Brazil-ASEAN relations and the opportunities for economic cooperation and tackling global challenges, cooperation in the energy sector and what benefits Brazil can derive from this partnership.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Partnerships, Economic Cooperation, ASEAN, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

262. Serbia’s Newly-Signed Extradition Agreement with China: U-turn on Human Rights? – Ana Krstinovska

Author:
Ana Krstinovska
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
In May 2024, during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Serbia, President Aleksandar Vučić signed 28 agreements with China, including a controversial extradition treaty. This treaty raises concerns about potential human rights violations, particularly for Chinese dissidents, as it follows the European Court of Human Rights’ precedent in Liu vs. Poland, which cited risks of ill-treatment in the Chinese prison system. The agreement highlights Serbia’s strategic alignment with China, emphasizing mutual legal cooperation and Chinese investments, despite past human rights scandals involving Chinese companies in Serbia. This development challenges Serbia’s commitments to the European Convention on Human Rights and complicates its EU accession prospects. In May 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Serbia, France, and Hungary to advance Chinese interests in Europe. Serbia, under President Aleksandar Vučić, signed 28 agreements with China, including a contentious extradition treaty. This extradition agreement potentially undermines human rights protections in Serbia, echoing concerns raised by the European Court of Human Rights in the Liu vs. Poland case regarding risks of ill-treatment in Chinese prisons. The treaty may facilitate the extradition of Chinese dissidents and political refugees, aligning with Beijing’s efforts to control overseas Chinese populations through legal and police cooperation. Serbia has strengthened its partnership with China, evidenced by joint police patrols and surveillance initiatives, and has become a significant hub for the Chinese diaspora in the Balkans. Past human rights issues in Serbia, involving Chinese companies’ labor practices, highlight a pattern of overlooking abuses to maintain strong bilateral relations. China’s support for Serbia on key international issues, such as the status of Kosovo, underpins this strategic alliance. Serbia’s deepening ties with China pose a challenge to its EU accession aspirations, requiring a balance between its obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights and its commitment to China’s vision of state-centric human rights.
Topic:
Human Rights, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Extradition
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, and Serbia