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41. Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino–US Trade Frictions?

Author:
Chien-Chiang Lee and Farzan Yahya
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the spillover and connectedness between the trade policy uncertainty (TPU) of the United States (US), China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea) under global geopolitical risk (GPR), infectious disease equity market volatility (EMVID), and GPR from North Korea (GPRNK) using a relatively novel time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach. Additionally, method of moments quantile regression is utilised to estimate the asymmetric effect of GPR, GPRNK, and EMVID on TPU. Our findings suggest that there is a high total and directional spillover amongst underlying variables during Sino–US trade friction that further elevated during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic period. The US is a net receiver of spillover from the TPU of all economies, while the Chinese TPU receives spillover from EMVID. The results further confirm that both the TPU of China (TPUCN) and the TPU of the US (TPUUS) are vulnerable to EMVID, but the effect is stronger for Chinese TPU in the higher quantiles. Although Japanese TPU is less vulnerable to GPR and EMVID, it is significantly exposed to GPRNK. Korean trade shows resiliency and immunity to pandemic-induced volatility and GPRNK.
Topic:
Trade Wars, Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Spillovers
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

42. COVID-19 and Firm Response: Evidence from China

Author:
Dongmin Kong, Chen Liu, and Mengxu Xiong
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper explores the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on firm response. Using a novel COVID-19 sentiment index, our estimation shows that the pandemic significantly reduced the overseas revenue and profits of firms listed on the Chinese A-share market. Moreover, we observe that an increase in loans, and a drop in debt financing cost and trade credit, were prominent during the pandemic. We contend that reduced cash flows, which damaged firm operations; government support, which provided more financing channels; and increased default risks, which placed barriers on trade credit, are the plausible mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic affects firm performance. Profit contraction was more pronounced for firms with a lower ratio of domestic content in exports and state-owned enterprises, while external financing was easier for firms subject to stringent financial constraints despite their lowered trade credit.
Topic:
Trade, COVID-19, and Firms
Political Geography:
China and Asia

43. Foreign Direct Investment, Brand Value, and Economic Performance: A Multinational Analysis

Author:
Tuba Yıldız, Ünal Arslan, Zeynep Ökten, Yıldız Sağlam Çelıköz, and Hale Kırmızıoğlu
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Istanbul Journal of Economics
Institution:
Istanbul University Faculty of Economics
Abstract:
The visibility and dependability of multinational corporations’ products increase with the fact that they introduce their goods to markets in other nations through foreign direct investments. The method for presenting products to international markets through foreign direct investments reveals the product’s reputation and therefore the brand’s development value. This study examines the relationship between foreign direct investments and brand value in Australia, Canada, China, France, India, Japan, Spain, the USA, and the UK for the period 2007-2023. The majority of studies in the literature attempt to explain the impact of brand value on foreign direct investments. However, very few studies explain the impac foreign direct investments on brand value and 1st generation unit root tests were generally used. Unlike existing studies, In this study, the second-generation unit root test, Durbin-Hausman cointegration, and Common Correlated Effects Mean Group estimation methods were used. As a result, it is anticipated that this study will contribute to the literature in this regard. The findings show that increases in foreign direct investments boost brand value.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, Multinational Corporations, Data, and Branding
Political Geography:
Japan, China, United Kingdom, Canada, India, France, Spain, Australia, Global Focus, and United States of America

44. Selective Migration Policies With Chinese Characteristics

Author:
Rey Koslowski and Sheng Ding
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
This article examines China’s recruitment of high-skilled migrants within a broader comparative analysis of selective migration strategies and adds the neglected Chinese case to the comparative immigration policy literature. China adopted certain selective migration polices from other countries, such as Canada and the United States, but its selective migration strategy does not fit established categories. Beginning in 2013, the Chinese communist government enacted new laws and issued new regulations to attract foreign talent and better regulate the entry, residence and employment of foreigners. The contours of China’s distinctive selective migration policy became more defined as Beijing established a point system combined with a job offer requirement; reformed the Z visa, which is issued to those with a college degree who intend to work in China; established the R visa for exceptionally high-skilled migrants; and adopted more liberal policies on permanent residency for the highly skilled. These policies, combined with the opportunities presented by China’s rapidly growing economy, attracted growing numbers of university graduates and propelled China, to become, for a brief period before the COVID-19 pandemic, a major destination for high-skilled migrants.
Topic:
Migration, Employment, Migration Policy, and Skilled Migration
Political Geography:
China and Asia

45. Rethinking Democracy ep. 4: China's growing presence in the Middle East with Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman

Author:
F. Gregory Gause, Jon B. Alterman, and Gonul Tol
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
About the series: This is a critical year for the future of democracy. Half the world’s population will go to the polls in 2024, at a time when citizens in America and across the globe are losing faith in democratic institutions. We often view the rollback of democracy and threats to the liberal international order as separate problems, but in reality they are closely interlinked. Through a new limited podcast series, MEI’s Gonul Tol seeks to examine the interplay between democracy’s domestic and international foes as well as how to counter them. In this episode: China has made significant inroads in the Middle East through diplomacy, trade, investment, and infrastructure projects. Beijing advertises the benefits of its authoritarian development model and presents itself as a responsible alternative to the United States. What does this mean for MENA autocracies? Dr. F. Gregory Gause and Dr. Jon Alterman join Gonul Tol to discuss China’s growing presence in the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Democracy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Institutions
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and Asia

46. Securitization of China Pakistan Economic Corridor Amid India China Rivalry

Author:
Muhammad Babar and Muhammad Umar
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
China Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI). The project has been considered the guarantor of Pakistan‟s economic development and has the potential to significantly improve the Pakistan gross domestic product and to transform Pakistan economy from import driven to export driven. Since the project has been under various impediments particularly in the domain of security, there have been several attacks on the Chinese personal working on the projects and its installations, majorly prompted by the Indian backed proxies and non-state actors in Pakistan. The Potential threats to the success of CPEC have been enhanced due the growing and intensifying India china rivalry. The securitization of the CPEC from all potential threats is a matter of national interest and ensuring national and economic security. This paper highlights the importance of CPEC for Pakistan‟s economy, potentials threats to the CPEC emanating from the Indian backed-proxies, discuss security measures taken to address these concerns and suggests a strategic path forward for the project securitization.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Non State Actors, Borders, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Exports, Economic Development, Rivalry, Securitization, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

47. R2P Monitor, Issue 68, 1 March 2024

Author:
Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
R2P Monitor is a quarterly publication applying the atrocity prevention lens to populations at risk of mass atrocities around the world. Issue 68 looks at developments in Afghanistan, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger), China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Myanmar (Burma), Nicaragua, Nigeria, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Cameroon, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Yemen.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Sudan, Ukraine, Israel, North Korea, Yemen, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, Nicaragua, Haiti, Syria, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Myanmar, South Sudan, Cameroon, Sahel, Central African Republic, and Global Focus

48. China's "Second Battlefield": Political Warfare in Combat Operations

Author:
Kerry K. Gershaneck
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
This article addresses how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will conduct political warfare against the U.S. Marine Corps in combat operations. The PRC has inextricably intertwined political warfare in its naval and maritime strategies to set the conditions for success in such a kinetic war. If the PRC perceives that political warfare alone will not achieve its goals, it threatens to achieve them through armed conflict, which may result in U.S. Marine Corps operations as a counter. This article examines key aspects of PRC political warfare in combat operations, to include a brief historical overview; goals, objectives, strategies, and tactics employed; targeting of U.S. and allied combat units, military base communities, and overseas Chinese; and the likely progression of political warfare operations throughout the combat campaign.
Topic:
Maritime, Gray Zone, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), political warfare, Hybrid Warfare, Coast Guard, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Cognitive Warfare
Political Geography:
China and Asia

49. Fires From the Shore: Supporting the Fight for Sea Control

Author:
Shaun Callahan
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The struggle to obtain, maintain, and exploit sea control during a campaign is an inherently Joint endeavor requiring a multi-Service, ­cross-domain application of firepower and maneuver. Maritime strikes from the land domain provide a critical offset to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) growing strength at sea and enable Joint force maneuver in the Western Pacific. To have a meaningful impact on the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) surface action groups and contribute to a Joint force objective to gain sea control in the Western Pacific as part of a coordinated campaign, the U.S. Army’s maritime strike capability must be aggregated into effective salvos by the supported maritime component commander. If deterrence fails in a strategically near future, naval operations in the Western Pacific will need to incorporate the U.S. Army’s multidomain task forces and their maritime strike capability to defeat the PRC’s antiaccess, area-denial (A2/AD) strategy.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Army, People's Liberation Army (PLA), Sea Control, and Joint Force Maneuver
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

50. Rescuing the Unreachable: Personnel Recovery and Resupply in a Contested Environment

Author:
William Fensterer, Richard Jr. Marshall, Colleen Minihan, and Jason Philips
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
In a potential armed conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China in the Indo-Pacific, sustainment of the Joint force is not assured. China’s modernized antiaccess/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities threaten sustainment lines of communication and challenge successful joint personnel recovery operations. This article examines the Joint operating environment through the lens of a historical case study, analysis of the current operating environment, and an assessment of the future operating environment—the next fight. The authors propose large quantity artificial intelligence (AI)-capable unmanned systems and a scalable force concept able to penetrate the A2/AD and recover and resupply the Joint force. Fielding new and existing technologies, continual doctrine refinement, and tailored wargaming is necessary to find and cover the gaps in our capabilities and be prepared to win the next fight.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Artificial Intelligence, Logistics, Joint Force Maneuver, Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations, and Personnel Recovery
Political Geography:
China, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific