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4061. Nepal's Peace Process: The Endgame Nears

Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Nepal's peace process has moved into a phase of definitive progress. More than five years after the ceasefire, the parties have reached a deal on the Maoist fighters, who will leave the cantonments and enter the army or civilian life. An unofficial deal sets out power-sharing arrangements until the next election. The parties are focusing on the critical task of writing a new constitution, which promises a deep restructuring of the state to become more representative and decentralised. Challenges remain, including from continuously evolving coalition dynamics and divisions within parties. There will also have to be further discussions on the combatants. As the parties discuss federalism, which of all peace process issues goes most to the heart of ordinary Nepalis' expectations and anxieties, groups within and outside the Constituent Assembly will see their options narrow, which could strain the process. Yet, this is still the best chance the parties have had to reach formal closure on the war and to institute some of the fundamental changes they promised, provided they have the courage to make far-sighted compromises.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Politics, Armed Struggle, and Governance
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Nepal

4062. Paradox of Power: Sino American Strategic Restraint in an Age of Vulnerability

Author:
David C. Gompert and Phillip C. Saunders
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Book
Abstract:
The United States and China each have or will soon have the ability to inflict grave harm upon the other by nuclear attack, attacks on satellites, or attacks on computer networks. Paradoxically, despite each country's power, its strategic vulnerability is growing. Particularly since September 11, 2001, Americans have sensed this vulnerability. The extent to which the Chinese sense it is unclear. Vulnerability to nuclear attack is familiar to both countries. But the United States and China are also becoming exposed to damage in space and cyberspace because of their growing reliance on those domains for their prosperity and security, as well as each side's increasing antisatellite (ASAT) and cyber war capabilities. For China, economic integration, production, and commerce-and thus, sustained growth and perhaps political stability-depend vitally on data sharing, making networks and satellites as strategic as they are for the United States. All three strategic domains are "offense dominant"-technologically, economically, and operationally. Defenses against nuclear, ASAT, and cyber weapons are difficult and yield diminishing results against the offensive capabilities of large, advanced, and determined states such as the United States and China. Nuclear weapons are patently offense dominant because a single explosion can destroy a city. Moreover, it is easier and cheaper for China to improve the survivability of its strategic missile launchers, to multiply deliverable weapons, and to penetrate U.S. missile defenses than it is for the United States to maintain a nuclear first-strike capability. Though it has yet to admit it, the United States cannot deny the Chinese the second-strike nuclear deterrent they are determined to have. Satellites are inherently vulnerable: conspicuous, easy to track, and fragile. Destroying them or degrading their performance is easier than protecting them. ASAT interceptors are much cheaper than satellites. Likewise, defending computer networks becomes harder and more expensive as the scale and sophistication of the attacker increase. The woes of the cyber defender are compounded by integrated global markets and supply chains for digital components and equipment-in which U.S. and state-affiliated Chinese corporations are leading competitors-increasing the potential for strategic degradation of network infrastructure and disruption of services. In general, strategic offense dominance gives each country an incentive to invest in offense, which in turn spurs the other to keep pace. Apart from offense dominance, the advance of technology has slashed the costs in lives and treasure of strategic attack, as capabilities have graduated from mass invasion to heavy bombing to nuclear weapons to ASAT and cyber war. If one ignores possible deaths resulting from disruption of public services, ASAT and cyber war might even be considered "nonviolent." As the number of expected casualties from strategic attack options drops, so could international opprobrium and the inhibitions of decisionmakers. Absent deterrence, thresholds for war in space and cyberspace could become perilously low as offenses improve.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Foreign Policy, Communism, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

4063. Global Norm Diffusion in East Asia: How China and Japan Implement the Responsibility to Protect

Author:
Jochen Prantl and Ryoko Nakano
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper addresses the problem of global norm diffusion in international relations with particular reference to the implementation of the Responsibility to Protect (RtoP) in East Asia. Exposing the limits of previous work on norm localisation, the authors propose a norm diffusion loop framework. Rather than understanding norm diffusion as a linear top-down process, the authors demonstrate that the reception to RtoP has evolved in a far more dynamic way which can best be described as a feedback loop. This paper first looks into the processes and causal mechanisms that helped to construct RtoP as an emerging transnational soft norm; then, it analyses the challenges of diffusing RtoP from the global to the regional and domestic levels; and, finally, it examines the variation of norm effects across states within the same region, focusing in particular on how RtoP has shaped Chinese and Japanese policy responses.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Israel, and Asia

4064. China and Inter-Korean Clashes in the Yellow Sea

Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The deadly provocations by North Korea in the Yellow Sea in 2010 – the Ch' ŏ nan sinking and the Yŏnp'yŏng Island shelling – drew condemnation and limited military responses by South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, but Beijing has been reluctant to go beyond counselling restraint to all parties. While declining to call Pyongyang to ac- count, it criticised Washington for stepped-up military exercises with allies in North East Asia. Beijing's unwillingness to condemn North Korea prevented a unified international response and undermines China's own security interests, as it invites further North Korean military and nuclear initiatives, risks increased militarisation of North East Asia and encourages an expanded U.S. military and political role in the region. Because it is seen as having failed to take greater responsibility to safeguard stability, China has also damaged its relationships in the region and in the West. The joint statement Presidents Hu and Obama issued on 19 January has helped, but China has ground to make up if it is to recover credibility as an impartial broker in the Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear program.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Washington, Israel, Beijing, Asia, and Korea

4065. Is There a Puzzle? Compliance with Minority Rights in Turkey (1999-2010)

Author:
Gözde Yilmaz
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
The Helsinki Summit in 1999 represents a turning point for EU–Turkey relations. Turkey gained status as a formal candidate country for the EU providing a strong incentive to launch democratic reforms for the ultimate reward of membership. Since 2001, the country has launched a number of reforms in minority rights. Many controversial issues, such as denial of the existence of the Kurds, or the lack of property rights granted to non-Muslim minorities in the country, have made progress. Even though the reforms in minority rights may represent a tremendous step for the Europeanization process of Turkey, the compliance trend in minority rights is neither progressive nor smooth. While there is a consensus within the literature about the acceleration of reforms starting in 2002 and the slow down by 2005 in almost all policy areas, scholars are divided into two camps regarding the continuing slow down of the reform process or the revival of the reforms since 2008. I argue, in the present paper, that the compliance process with minority rights in Turkey is puzzling due to the differentiated outcome and the recent revival of behavioral compliance. I aim to shed light on the empirical facts in the least-likely area for reform in the enlargement process. Through a detailed analysis of minority-related reform process of Turkey being an instance of ongoing compliance, the paper contributes to the literature divided on the end result of Europeanization in the country recently.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, and Minorities
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4066. Improving Afghan War Strategy

Author:
Michael E. O'Hanlon
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The year 2010 in Afghanistan had some encouraging signs but on balance it was less positive than had been hoped. In 2011, therefore, it is important to do two things: first, look for further improvements in our strategy; and second, develop a backup plan, should the current approach not yield the kind of progress that is necessary and expected.
Topic:
NATO, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Asia

4067. Six months into the floods: Resetting Pakistan's priorities through reconstruction

Author:
Shaheen Chughtai and Helen McElhinney
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Six months after the flood disaster began, this briefing paper evaluates the humanitarian response so far, the continuing crisis, and the challenges that lie ahead. It looks at the immediate reconstruction task, as well as the underlying socio-economic and political issues that need to be tackled by the Government of Pakistan, backed by the international aid community, in order to help vulnerable Pakistanis rebuild stronger, safer communities and a more equitable and self-reliant country.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Asia

4068. Regional Overview:More of the Same, Times Three

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Last quarter we noted that the US profile in Asia was on the rise and China‟s image was falling, while questioning if North Korea was changing, as Beijing, among others, seemed to insist. This quarter has been marked by more of the same, on all three fronts.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North Korea

4069. US-China Relations:Friction and Cooperation in Run-up to Hu‟s US Visit

Author:
Bonnie Glaser and Brittany Billingsley
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
China-US relations were marked by the now familiar pattern of friction and cooperation. Tensions spiked over North Korea, but common ground was eventually reached and a crisis was averted. President Obama‟s 10-day Asia tour, Secretary of State Clinton‟s two-week Asia trip, and US -ROK military exercises in the Yellow Sea further intensified Chinese concerns that the administration‟s “return to Asia” strategy is aimed at least at counterbalancing China, if not containing China‟s rise. In preparation for President Hu Jintao‟s state visit to the US in January 2011, Secretary Clinton stopped on Hainan Island for consultations with Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo and Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg visited Beijing. Progress toward resumption of the military- to -military relationship was made with the convening of a plenary session under the US-China Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) and the 11th meeting of the Defense Consultative Talks. Differences over human rights were accentuated by the awarding of the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo.
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

4070. Japan-Korea Relations:The New Cold War in Asia?

Author:
Ji-Young Lee and David C. Kang
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The year ended with heightened tensions resulting from Pyongyang"s shelling of South Korea"s Yeonpyeong Island on Nov, 23 and the subsequent show of force by South Korea, the US, and Japan. Yet, despite dueling artillery barrages and the sinking of a warship, pledges of “enormous retaliation,” in-your-face joint military exercises and urgent calls for talks, the risk of all-out war on the Korean Peninsula is less than it has been at any time in the past four decades. North Korea didn"t blink because it had no intention of actually starting a major war. Rather than signifying a new round of escalating tension between North and South Korea, the events of the past year point to something else – a potential new cold war. The most notable response to the attack on Yeonpyeong was that a Seoul-Washington-Tokyo coalition came to the fore, standing united to condemn North Korea”s military provocations, while Beijing called for restraint and shrugged away calls to put pressure on North Korea. Within this loose but clear division, Japan-North Korea relations moved backward with Prime Minister Kan Naoto blaming the North for an “impermissible, atrocious act.” On the other hand, Japan-South Korea relations have grown closer through security cooperation in their reaction to North Korea. Tokyo"s new defense strategy places a great emphasis on defense cooperation and perhaps even a military alliance with South Korea and Australia in addition to the US to deal with China"s rising military power and the threat from Pyongyang.
Topic:
Cold War
Political Geography:
Japan, Washington, Asia, Tokyo, and Korea