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6401. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 4: August 31, 1998

Author:
Allen Collinsworth, Robert Orttung, Rado Petkov, and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
At approximately 12.30 p.m. EST today, the Duma rejected Chernomyrdin's nomination as Prime Minister by an open ballot vote of 251-94 (with 105 abstaining). 226 votes are needed to confirm him. Chernomyrdin's own Our Home Is Russia party provided most of his support (64 votes). Zhirinovsky's party, the Liberal Democrats, abstained (49 votes). Analysts underscored the weakness of support for Chernomyrdin by noting that, in the first round of voting on the nomination of Prime Minister Kiriyenko five months ago, Kiriyenko polled 143 votes in favor. This was in secret balloting, however, which to some extent invalidates the comparison.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

6402. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 3: August 27, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
The latest private reports from Moscow indicate that the Duma is very likely to reject Viktor Chernomyrdin's candidacy for Prime minister next week. Tomorrow, Aug. 28 th , at 3:00 pm, the Duma and the Federation Council will meet to decide whether to recommend a vote on Chernomyrdin's candidacy. Whereas Chernomyrdin's chances are bleak, the fluid nature of current Russian political situation makes it impossible to firmly rule out his confirmation as prime minister, a post which he very much wants.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

6403. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 2: August 25, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Since our Aug. 20th report, the situation in Russia has developed dramatically. On Friday (Aug. 21st), the lower house of the Russian parliament (the Duma) overwhelmingly called for Yeltsin's resignation and changes in the government and the leadership of the central bank. The Duma also passed a non-binding resolution demanding nationalization of some banks and restriction of foreign participation in domestic capital markets. In response, the RTS index of leading Russian shares fell 5.56% to 81.76 on negligible trading volume of $4.2 million. Central bank head Dubinin announced plans to activate Russia's precious metals reserves (approximately $5 billion of $15.1 billion total foreign exchange reserves) to support the ruble. On Sunday, Aug. 23rd, in an action anticipated in our Aug. 17th report, Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergei Kiriyenko and installed in his place Viktor Chernomyrdin.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

6404. Russian Financial Crisis Assessment 1: August 20, 1998

Author:
Rado Petkov and Rick Petree
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
Russian capital markets were already in what George Soros described as a “financial meltdown in . . . its terminal phase” on August 12th. Since then, capital markets have deteriorated significantly in reaction to measures announced by the Russian Government on Monday, Aug. 17th (summarized in Section II below). IEWS is actively evaluating the nature and extent of the crisis and trying to project its likely course.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

6405. Globalisation: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:
G.B. Madison
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:
Globalization is a multifaceted phenomenon. In this paper I seek to discern some of the challenges it poses, as well as some of the opportunities it offers. To this end, attention is focused on three major aspects of globalization: the economic, the cultural, and the political. Particular consideration is given to the political-economic lessons to be learned from the recent East Asian financial (and economic) crisis; the homogenizing and civilizing ramifications of globalization in the realm of culture; and the relation between economic globalization, the threat it poses to the traditional notion of national sovereignty, and the prospects for the development of civil society, the rule of law, and democratic governance. The paper concludes by arguing that, as a result of the emerging global economy, we are witnessing the emergence of a new form of capitalism, qualitatively different from both 19th-century laissez-faire capitalism and 20th-century “managed” capitalism.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:
East Asia and Asia

6406. Japan's Preference toward Bilateral Dispute Settlement Mechanisms with the United States

Author:
Young Jong Choi
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Japan's preference toward regional institutions has received a great attention in recent years in relation to the development of regional institutions in Asia (exclusively East Asia) and the Pacific (the broader Asia-Pacific region). Japan's policy toward Asia and the Pacific has often been characterized by "hegemonic defection" and Japan as a "reactive state". The former indicates the absence of Japan's leadership in regional institution building (Mack and Ravenhill 1995: 8). The latter portrays Japan as incapable of pursuing pro-active policies in regional affairs because of its consensus-oriented culture, historical legacy of colonialism, domestic political gridlock and most of all extreme dependence upon the U.S. security umbrella (Calder 1988; Hellmann 1988; Pyle 1992; Curtis 1993).
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, East Asia, and Asia

6407. Curbed Markets?

Author:
Kellee S. Tsai
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Our country does not permit the establishment of private banks. We must continue to investigate and impose discipline on non-banking financial institutions and other creditors that charge high interest rates. This is clearly one of the most important measures for ensuring order in the entire financial system.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

6408. The Economic Crisis of South Korea and Its Political Impact

Author:
Hang Yul Rhee
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The spectacular performance, until recently, of East Asia's emerging economies, popularly known as the Asian tigers, has fueled wild speculation in the West about the so-called "Asian Century." "Never before in world history," noted the Economist in March 1997, "has any region sustained such rapid growth for so long." The GDP per capita of Taiwan ($13,200) and South Korea ($11,900) were already impressive enough in 1997 to place them at the gate of the advanced industrialized nations of the world. Japan, of course, has long been an acknowledged super-economy, often said to have led the flock of economic "flying geese" before they turned into what Chung-In Moon ten years ago called the "swarming sparrows" in Asia. Then suddenly last summer, seemingly as if from the blue, came the financial crisis in Pacific Asia. In reality, however, it followed what had been a decade-long period of sclerosis in the Japanese economy.
Political Geography:
Japan, East Asia, Asia, and South Korea

6409. Macro Comparisons without the Pitfalls: A Protocol for Comparative Research

Author:
J. Samuel Valenzuela
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Comparative analysis is, with statistical and case study approaches, one of the three main tools for studying macrophenomena in the social sciences. This paper begins by delimiting its essential characteristics in contrast to the other two approaches, noting that it owes much of its strength to cases studies even though it focuses, like statistical methods, on explaining how phenomena vary, producing both similarities and differences among cases (the complex configurations of variables where the phenomena are studied). The paper then presents a protocol of research steps that must be followed in order to minimize the possibilities of error in using comparative analysis. It is easy to fall prey to such errors, given the many variables that must be examined in a smaller number of cases-the defining feature of this form of analysis. Juan Linz's work is frequently mentioned as among the most insightful in comparative analysis because it has followed, avant la lettre, the protocol presented here.
Topic:
Democratization, Social Movement, and Research
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and South America

6410. Time to Reinvent APEC

Author:
Edward Lincoln and Kenneth Flamm
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
APEC, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, provides an opportunity for 18 countries with strong trade and investment ties to discuss a wide range of economic issues. APEC has scored two tangible achievements to date: a sweeping but vaguely worded 1994 pledge by its member states to open up to free trade and investment by 2010 and 2020, and a central role in the negotiation of the 1996 Information Technology Agreement (ITA). However, APEC is in danger of fading. When this year's summit begins on November 19, the United States must push for major reform of the APEC bargaining process if the organization is to have any chance of realizing its ambitious trade reform targets.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

6411. Future Prospects for the U.S. Defense Budget and Their Implications for Our Asian Alliance Commitments

Author:
Andrew Krepinevich
Publication Date:
08-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This talk addresses two issues. First, given the level of American defense spending, are there enough resources available to sustain the U.S. presence in East Asia, over the long term, along the lines of the current commitment of approximately 100,000 troops? Second, even if there is adequate funding to maintain forward deployed troops, are these the kinds of investments we ought to be making, given the transformations we are seeing in the geopolitical environment and, I would argue, the military-technical environment? Will these investments, in other words, achieve American security objectives in East Asia over the next ten to twenty years?
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, America, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

6412. U.S.-Japan Defense Guidelines: Toward a New Accommodation of Mutual Responsibility

Author:
Paul Giarra
Publication Date:
06-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War. The conclusion of the Cold War has undercut presumptions about America's commitment to Asian security and the defense of Japan. The Cold War the need to contain the Soviet Union no longer exists as an inherent rationale and the organizing principle for an American national doctrine for overseas engagement. This is a major consequence of the end of the Cold War.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, America, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union

6413. China's Foreign Economic Relations

Author:
K.C. Fung and Lawrence Lau
Publication Date:
05-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China's presence in the world economy continues to grow and deepen. The foreign sector of China plays an important and multifaceted role in the country's economic development. At the same time, China's expanded role in the world economy is beneficial to all its trading partners. Regions that trade with China benefit from cheaper and more varied imported consumer goods, raw materials, and intermediate products. China also provides a large and growing export market. While the entry of any major trading nation in the global trading system can create a process of adjustment, the outcome is fundamentally a win-win situation. It is a simple but powerful lesson from economics that freer international trade and investments benefit all parties concerned.
Topic:
International Relations, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

6414. Building China's Information Technology Industry

Author:
Stephen S. Cohen and Michael Borrus
Publication Date:
11-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
At the October 29, 1997, summit meeting between President Jiang Zemin of the People's Republic of China ("China") and President Bill Clinton of the United States, President Jiang announced his government's commitment to join the Information Technology Agreement ("ITA") and thereby eliminate China's tariffs on semiconductors, computers and other information technology products. President Jiang also agreed that, in the context of the negotiations concerning China's accession to the World Trade Organization ("WTO"), China would make further substantial tariff reductions.
Topic:
Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

6415. From Partial to Systemic Globalization

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
04-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
Far-reaching changes are currently occurring in the organization and location of the production of industrial goods and services, changes which are bound to have important implications for the welfare, the development potential, and the competitive position of different countries and regions. As competition cuts across national and sectoral boundaries and becomes increasingly global, firms everywhere are forced to shift from exports to international production. Today, dominance in a domestic market—even one as large as the U.S.—is no longer enough. Mutual raiding of established customer and supply bases has become an established business practice, with the result that firms are now forced to compete simultaneously in all major markets, notably in Europe, North America and Asia.
Topic:
Globalization and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and North America

6416. Partners for the China Circle?: The Asian Production Networks of Japanese Electronics Firms

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
01-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
Abstract:
The "China fever" that has raged through the Japanese industry over the last few years, has drastically changed the locational patterns of Japanese investment within East Asia. The share of China in the investment of Japanese electronics firms abroad has increased by leaps and bounds: from the measly 0.6% of 1990 ( the year after the Tianmen massacre), it has now reached almost 7%, catching up fast with the 7.7% share of ASEAN.
Topic:
Industrial Policy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

6417. Global Trends 2010

Publication Date:
12-1997
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense University to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of the political world as they will appear in the year 2010.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and South America

6418. The Political Economy of Regional Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin, with Special Reference to APEC-A Rapporteurs' Report

Author:
Joseph Stevano and William Barnes
Publication Date:
04-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
The papers and discussion summarized here were presented at the workshop “The Political Economy of Regional Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin, with Special Reference to APEC,” which was held at the Kellogg Institute, 12–14 October 1995. Some of the papers presented, including those by Yoji Akashi, Brian Job, and Clark Reynolds, will also be published in their entirety as part of the Kellogg Institute Working Paper Series. The United States, Canada, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and many other East Asian countries all belong to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and a distinctive feature of the workshop was that it consisted of experts from both sides of the Pacific. The result is a comprehensive look at the issues of trade and development in this region. Yorizumi Watanabe pointed out some tensions between regional and multilateral trade agreements. Satoshi Hanai’s paper analyzed the current Japanese recession; the papers by Akashi, Tsutomu Kikuchi, and Job focused on APEC, the former two from an Asian perspective, the latter from a North American—which provided a provocative contrast between different explanations and interpretations of the exact same events. Shozo Inouye analyzed Japan’s contribution to human resource development throughout the Asia-Pacific, while Michael Plummer and Reynolds analyzed the economic impact of economic integration in this region.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Asia

6419. The China-United States Bilateral Trade Balance: How Big Is It Really?

Author:
K.C. Fung and Lawrence Lau
Publication Date:
04-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
There are huge discrepancies between the official Chinese and U.S. estimates of the bilateral trade balance. The discrepancies are caused by different treatments accorded to re-exports through Hong Kong, re-export markups, and trade in services. Deficit-shifting between China, on the one hand, and Hong Kong and Taiwan, on the other, due to direct investment in China from Taiwan and Hong Kong, is partly responsible for the growth in the China United States bilateral trade deficit.
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and Hong Kong

6420. A United States Policy for the Changing Realities of East Asia

Author:
Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, and Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:
01-1996
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia