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801. EU's Trade Strategies and Korea-EU Cooperation Plans

Author:
Young-ook Jang
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Jang et al. (2022) investigate the recent shifts in the European Union's medium- to long-term trade strategies, which have evolved in response to a rapidly changing global trade landscape. We closely examine the policy domains currently in the EU's spotlight, including supply chain resilience, digitalization, tackling climate change, and public health crisis management. Another objective of this study is to identify opportunities for cooperation between Korea and the EU in the above-mentioned areas. Our recommendations include fostering partnerships in Net-zero technology development and multilateral climate discussions, modernizing digital trade agreements, and enhancing pharmaceutical cooperation.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Partnerships, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and South Korea

802. Policy Implications of the Biden Administration’s Global Supply Chain Reorganization

Author:
Gusang Kang
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study indirectly estimates the impact of implementation of the Biden government’s supply chain restructuring policy on the U.S. and Korean economies, and derives policy implications accordingly. For the first analysis to indirectly examine the economic impact of the global supply chain reorganization of the semiconductor and battery industries, we estimate the impact of changes in the export share of the semiconductor or battery industry by country on the change in GDP per capita. Our results show an increase in the export share of semiconductors or batteries has a statistically significant increase in GDP per capita. These results support the reason why the Biden administration is moving to expand its exports through the reorganization of the U.S.-centered supply chain in the industry. By reorganizing the supply chain centered on the U.S., President Biden intends to attract production facilities in weak sectors such as memory semiconductors, foundries, and lithium-ion battery manufacturing to the U.S. through cooperation with partner countries such as Taiwan and Korea in the short term. In conclusion, this policy promotion seems to be part of a strategy to discover sustainable economic growth engines for the U.S. while checking China’s technological rise in key industries, and restoring U.S. leadership. Secondly, we estimate the impact of changes in export concentration or import concentration by semiconductor or battery item in the U.S. and Korea on the change in net exports by the two countries. First of all, in the case of the U.S. semiconductor industry, changes in export concentration and import concentration did not have a statistically significant effect on changes in net exports of the corresponding item. However, in the case of the Korean semiconductor industry, an increase in export concentration had a negative impact on the net export of the item, whereas a change in import concentration did not have a statistically significant effect on the change in Korea’s net export of the same item. In the case of the U.S. battery industry, as the import concentration by item increases, the U.S. net export of the same item decreases. However, we find that both the increase in the concentration of exports and the concentration of imports in the Korean battery industry decrease net exports of the product. Taken together, it can be inferred that the concentration of supply chains in the semiconductor and battery industries in the U.S. or Korea has the potential to hinder economic growth by reducing net exports of the relevant items in both countries. Based on the analysis results, it is necessary to strengthen norms-based supply chain cooperation with the U.S. and efforts are needed to diversify the lithium-ion battery supply chain.
Topic:
Economics, Supply Chains, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

803. The E-Commerce and Global Value Chains

Author:
Sangjun Yea and Seungrae Lee
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
This study investigates the significance of India's emergence as the world's most populous nation in 2023, surpassing China, and its consequential implications for economic growth. With a focus on the demographic dividend driven by working-age and prime-age populations, we analyze the effects of shifting age distribution on India's labor force, labor market, and economic drivers. Extending the study period by integrating additional datasets, we examine per capita GDP growth, sectoral value-added, and employment shifts at the state level. Results reveal limited influence on per capita output, but significant sectoral effects. Notably, prime age composition within the working-age population emerges as a key driver of economic growth.
Topic:
Demographics, Economic Growth, Global Value Chains, and E-Commerce
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Global Focus

804. Economic Cooperation Policies of China, Japan and India towards South Asia and Their Implications for Korea

Author:
Jeong Gon Kim
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
With the Indo-Pacific region increasingly gaining recognition for its strategic importance, countries such as China, Japan, and India are seeking close economic cooperation with South Asian countries. This report analyses these countries’ strategic perspectives and cooperation policies towards South Asia (Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) under the rapidly changing international political and economic environment, and examines Korea’s future economic cooperation strategies and policies. Korea’s economic cooperation with South Asian countries has mainly focused on ODA. Although trade and investment have been centered on some manufacturing industries, they have recently shown a shrinking trend. While competition among major countries in South Asia is in full swing, it is necessary to establish a new direction for economic cooperation and promote policies towards South Asia from a strategic perspective.
Topic:
Economics, Regional Integration, Economic Cooperation, and Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, China, South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

805. Impact of China's Emissions Trading System on Industries and its Policy Implications

Author:
Jihyun Jung
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
China, the world's largest carbon emitter and skeptical of developing countries’ emissions reduction commitments, announced internationally in 2020 its vision to peak carbon emissions in 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. China's emission reduction strategy has a significant impact on China's economy and society as a whole, and Korea, which has a close economic ties with China, will also be affected. China's carbon neutral policy announced in 2021 includes the continuous promotion of policies such as direct regulation, public investment, and subsidies, as well as the nationwide implementation of the ETS and the expansion of applicable industries. This study analyzed the impact of China's ETS on Chinese industries using the input-output model, and derived implications for Korea-China economic relations based on the results.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Trade, Industry, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and South Korea

806. North Korea’s Climate Change Challenges and the Need for International Cooperation

Author:
Dawool Kim
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
North Korea recognized the importance of addressing climate change early on and has been an active participant in international cooperation on climate change. However, North Korea's vulnerability to climate change is still considered to be very high, and the country has been unable to participate in the international community's efforts to support climate change adaptation in developing countries due to sanctions. This study aims to analyze the climate change challenges that North Korea faces focusing on natural disasters and agriculture. For this purpose, it not only refers to domestic and international statistics, literature, and media data but also uses real-time satellite data to provide empirical evidence on climate change impacts and policy performance in North Korea. Also, It suggests the need for South Korea to support North Korea’s adaptation to climate change, especially in cooperation with the international community.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, International Cooperation, Natural Disasters, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

807. Paris Agreement Article 6 and Implications for Korea’s NDC Implementation

Author:
Jione Jung
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
Korea plans to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement as a complementary measure to its domestic mitigation efforts. There is an urgent need to establish a plan to promote international emission reduction and to prepare specific implementation measures. The government needs to play a role in securing funding and providing support for international emissions reduction projects, as well as establishing laws and regulations to promote emissions reduction activities abroad.
Topic:
Climate Change, Law, Regulation, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

808. The structural improvement for Korea's foreign exchange market and its implications on Korean economy

Author:
Hyo Sang Kim, Sungbae An, and Young Sik Jeong
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The Korean government recognizes the imperative to improve the structure of the foreign exchange market to align with global standards, aiming for increased openness and competitiveness. The plan involves a twofold approach. One is a comprehensive reform of foreign exchange laws and regulations, notably the Foreign Exchange Transaction Act enacted in 1999, to adapt to evolving economic environments. The other is the systematic improvement of the foreign exchange market infrastructure to make the market more accessible to foreign investors. Through this procedure, Korea desires to develop a deeper and more market-oriented foreign exchange market, thereby improving the convenience and efficiency of participants. Also, it helps to internationalize the Korean won in the longer term. Amidst Korea's export-led growth and aging population, improving the foreign exchange market becomes pivotal for supporting the positioning of the Korean financial market, fostering financial openness, and sustaining long-term economic growth.
Topic:
Foreign Exchange, Markets, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

809. A Look Back on 50 years of ROK-Indonesia Partnership and its Future

Author:
Ina Choi, Jaeho Lee, So Eun Kim, and Kyunghee Choi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
South Korea (hereafter Korea) and Indonesia are commemorating the 50th anniversary of their diplomatic ties in 2023. Since establishing a strategic partnership in 2006, the two nations have cultivated strong bonds based on mutual trust and respect. Recognizing the deepening common interests and shared strategic values, Korea and Indonesia upgraded their bilateral relations to a "special strategic partnership" in 2017. This move is particularly significant against the backdrop of heightened strategic competition between the U.S. and China, where Indonesia has emerged as a key partner for Korea to diversify its economic and diplomatic engagements. The challenges posed by the Russia-Ukraine war, coupled with disruptions in the global supply chain caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, have further underscored Indonesia's importance as a critical collaborator for Korea in supply chain cooperation. From Indonesia's perspective, Korea is a major economy that can contribute to the modernization of its manufacturing sector, the relocation of its capital city, and the growth of its defense industry. Notably, as middle powers in the Indo-Pacific region, the two countries share a common goal of fostering an inclusive regional order amid the escalating rivalry between China and the U.S. In light of these dynamics, this paper assesses the progress of Korea-Indonesia relations to date and delves into the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in enhancing bilateral cooperation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Economy, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and South Korea

810. U.S. Trade Strategies and Korea-U.S. Cooperation Plans

Author:
Gu Sang Kang, Hyok Jung Kim, Jonghyuk Kim, Hyuk Ju Kwon, Eunbin Park, and Yeo Joon Yoon
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The U.S. has taken a leading role in global discussions, not only in addressing major economic and trade issues but also in formulating cooperative measures on the international stage. Consequently, understanding the U.S. position and response strategies for each critical issue arising from external shocks is essential. This understanding holds significant importance in shaping Korea's mid- to long-term foreign economic strategy. By comprehending the U.S. position and response strategies, particularly regarding major issues, this study aims to derive Korea’s future trade strategies with the U.S. and develop cooperation plans with the U.S. As a result of conducting research under these objectives, the following cooperation strategies between South Korea and the United States have been derived. First, in the context of supply chain restructuring, South Korea should consider expanding local investment and production in the semiconductor and battery sectors within the U.S. close collaboration between the government and companies is essential to maximize national interests. It is crucial for our companies to take advantage of the tax incentives and other regulatory incentives offered by the U.S. government when entering the U.S. market, and our government should provide diplomatic support for these efforts. Regarding digital trade, South Korea should actively participate in international discussions led by the U.S. to set standards for essential infrastructure in the global digital transformation, such as advanced communication networks like 5G and 6G. Further-more, South Korea should actively lead discussions within the IPEF on the Trade Facilitation and Digital Commerce Working Group to overcome limitations within the KORUS FTA's digital trade provisions and collaborate with participating countries to develop a roadmap for digital trade norms. In the area of climate change mitigation, South Korea and the U.S. should strengthen their cooperation by promoting joint research in environmentally friendly, low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen production and utilization, fuel cells, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), and energy storage devices. Additionally, both countries should collaborate on producing related products. Furthermore, South Korea should proactively engage with the U.S. in discussions related to climate change policies that the U.S. and the EU are considering. This proactive engagement can help increase the effectiveness of collaborative by anticipating the possibility that these policies may be-come international norms in the future.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

811. 2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

Author:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remain dominant challenges to US national security interests across the globe. However, the evolving security environment also presents new and unconventional threats, such as cyberattacks, terrorism, transnational crime, and the implications of rapid technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence. At the same time, the US faces domestic and institutional challenges in the form of recruiting and retention shortfalls in the all-volunteer force, the prospect of contested logistics in large-scale combat operations, and the health of the US Defense Industrial Base. Furthermore, rapidly evolving security landscapes in the Arctic region and the space domain pose unique potential challenges to the Army’s strategic advantage.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Migration, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Partnerships, Weapons, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, Logistics, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, Eurasia, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia, Arctic, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

812. China’s Future Military Capabilities

Author:
Roger Cliff
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America identifies China as the “pacing challenge” for the US military. This monograph examines the process by which China’s military capabilities are developed, the capabilities China’s military is seeking to acquire in the future, and the resulting implications for the US military. To date, all the extant studies have merely described the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army is currently acquiring. This monograph goes further by drawing on the Chinese military’s publications to identify and discuss the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army seeks to acquire in the future. The monograph finds China’s military is engaged in a comprehensive program to field a dominant array of military capabilities for ground, sea, air, space, and cyberspace warfare. Countering these capabilities will require the United States and its allies to engage in an equally comprehensive effort. The monograph’s findings will enable US military planners and policy practitioners to understand the long-term goals of China’s development of military capabilities and to anticipate and counter China’s realization of new capabilities so the United States can maintain its military advantage over the long term.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Strategic Planning, Future, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

813. Americans and the Dragon: Lessons in Coalition Warfighting from the Boxer Uprising

Author:
Mitchell G. Klingenberg
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Drawing from archival materials at the US Army Heritage and Education Center and the United States Military Academy at West Point, numerous published primary sources, and a range of secondary sources, this monograph offers an overview of the China Relief Expedition from June 1900 to the moment of liberation in August. Its considerations range from the geopolitical to the strategic and down to the tactical levels of war. US forces partnered alongside the combined naval and land forces of multiple nations, thus constituting the first contingency, expeditionary, and multinational coalition in American military history. In the face of numerous obstacles conditioned by enemy forces, the environment, and internal to the informal coalition itself, American forces succeeded in liberating their besieged legation. While the character of war has evolved since 1900, students of war should see through disparities that appear to separate the China Relief Expedition from the historical present.
Topic:
War, History, Armed Forces, Army, Coalition, Boxer Rebellion, and Force Protection
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

814. The New Crusades: Islamophobia and the Global War on Muslims — by Khaled A. Beydoun

Author:
Khaled A. Beydoun
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
Discover a groundbreaking exploration of Islamophobia on a global scale in 'The New Crusades' by Khaled A. Beydoun. This seminal book offers an unprecedented deep dive into how both democratic and authoritarian regimes worldwide are exploiting Islamophobia to target Muslim populations. Beydoun meticulously analyzes the impact of the American War on Terror, revealing its pivotal role in amplifying and interconnecting anti-Muslim campaigns across continents. From Europe to Asia, the Middle East, and beyond, 'The New Crusades' provides a critical and intimate examination of Islamophobia's diverse manifestations. This is the first book to offer such a comprehensive analysis, making it a must-read for anyone seeking to understand the complexities of global Islamophobia and its far-reaching consequences.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Islamophobia, Muslims, and Book Talk
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Global Focus

815. State-Centric Data Governance in China

Author:
Alex He
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
China’s state-centric data governance regime has evolved into a framework characterized by the pursuit of a dual goal to bolster both economic growth and national security at the expense of personal information protection, which is significantly compromised due to the government’s mostly unfettered access to personal data. This paper examines three components of data governance in China and then considers data governance institutions in the country. It describes how digital platform governance and regulation on cross-border data flows have illustrated the country’s dual goal. The paper concludes with a discussion of the global implications of China’s data governance system.
Topic:
National Security, Economic Growth, State, and Data Governance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

816. Clarifying China’s Rise Puzzle: Comparison of the Modernisation and Primacy of Institutions Theories

Author:
Ekrem Ok
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Academics show great interest in the progress of countries and the disparities between developing and developed countries. This is grounded on a belief that the change in the number of developed/developing countries may play a significant role in determining the future of the international system. Therefore, China’s rise has a vital place in the study of international systems. Given its sui generis economic and political structure, China is a hard-to-predict country for most academics working on international systems. In this context, this study will look at China’s rise through the lenses of Modernisation and Primacy of Institutions theories and discuss which describes China’s rise more accurately. This will involve a comparative analysis of both theories with historical and political data in order to evaluate their respective arguments.
Topic:
Institutions, Modernization, and International System
Political Geography:
China and Asia

817. Adaptation of Law and Policy in an Aged Society: Guardianship Law and People’s Behavioural Pattern

Author:
Yukio Sakurai
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
This essay reviews some typologies of people’s behavioural patterns and examines relationships between guardianship laws and policies and people’s behavioural patterns in Japan and the State of Victoria. Through such analysis, a consideration regarding the adaptation of law and policy in an aged society is addressed. By reviewing people’s behavioural patterns in these two states, two keywords appear essential in practice under the guardianship law and policy: one is “family reliance”; the other is “value of individual autonomy.” Most Japanese do not rely on legal measures, including adult guardianship when it concerns private autonomy for property management and personal affairs, but they can use legal measures even staying with family reliance. The guardianship law in Japan must be reformed to create a limited guardianship type with less than one year for self-revocation. With the value of individual autonomy, people can decide by themselves what to do for the future. This issue is difficult to tackle because of the legal consciousness of older Japanese adults and the nuanced relationships between relatives. It is recommended that Japanese people should debate value issues in public for a better society and to ensure the people’s participation in social affairs through their own initiatives for establishing the value of individual autonomy. The baby boom generation, who are educated at schools in democracy postwar, may change the behavioural pattern of older adults in the future. The research method is an interdisciplinary literature survey and interviews with experts, with a particular focus on comparative guardianship law and policy studies in Japan and the State of Victoria.
Topic:
Family, Aging, Autonomy, Behavior, Guardianship, and Reliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Canada, Asia, and North America

818. Safeguarding Democracy against Disinformation: Insights from Taiwanese Civil Society

Author:
Nelson Wen
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassadors Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
On August 2, 2022, pedestrians near convenience stores and a few public spaces around Taiwan began noticing that the content on digital billboards had been replaced with strident messages in Chinese, such as “Greater China will ultimately be unified!” That same month, the websites of a Taiwan university and other organizations were defaced with messages, including “There is only one China in the world!” Meanwhile, the military of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was conducting days of drills and missile launches on a scale previously unseen, though certain photos and videos claiming to show Chinese military exercises near Taiwan were later proven by Taiwan-based fact-checking organizations to be doctored or fabricated. This combination of disinformation, military saber rattling and hacking activity was the latest example of what Taiwan authorities, scholars and civil society have termed “cognitive warfare.” The experiences of Taiwan in trying to protect the integrity of its information environment against such influence attempts merit close attention from all societies and the United States in particular. This is because Taiwan provides a model for a multifaceted, grassroots response to combat disinformation, and also because a large proportion of disinformation in Taiwan relates to discrediting the United States as a reliable security partner.[ii] Based on interviews with a select group of Taiwan non-governmental organizations (NGOs), this article will illustrate how parts of Taiwan’s civil society are dealing with the challenges posed by foreign and homegrown disinformation.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

819. China and Russia's Far East

Author:
Richard Holwill
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassadors Review
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin crowed about his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying that China and Russia have forged a “friendship without limits.” So far, the Chinese President has backed Putin’s attacks on Ukraine. This agreement serves China’s foreign policy goals, at least for now. China hopes to build an international order in which it supplants the United States as a leader of the international community. Because Putin’s Russia supports that goal, China supports Russia. But make no mistake, this friendship does have limits. At some point, China will have reasons to break with Russia and could do so in a dramatic fashion. The break will be driven by another of China’s foreign policy goals: the desire to regain all of the territory and dominance that it enjoyed prior to its “hundred years of humiliation,” which is how Chinese scholars and officials describe the period from 1839 and 1949, during which the Western powers, along with Japan and Russia, seized Chinese territory. Through that period, China agreed to a series of unequal treaties that allowed those powers to “pick China’s bones.” In 1839, China lost Hong Kong to the British. The Portuguese took Macau in 1887. Following the Sino-Japanese War in 1895, the Empire of Japan took Dalian and Taiwan. The Germans seized Jiqozhou Bay and Tsingtao in 1898. China ceded Zhanjiang to France in 1898.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, International Order, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

820. Chengdu Youth

Author:
Zhang Feng and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Zhang Feng is an influential blogger and bookstore owner from Chengdu, who closely observes trends among urban youth. In his city, there is far more independent thought and activism among young people than is generally recognized in the outside world. The "White Paper Movement" that occurred last November to protest strict Covid-19 lockdown measures was a rare public manifestation of deeper and longer trends. Young people are resisting the politicization, ideological rigidity, and organizational rigidity of Chinese life, and pursue their own lifestyles with an emphasis on aesthetics. The fact that they worked out ways to support friends who were arrested for the White Paper Movement is a sign of how urban culture is evolving. Zhang Feng will describe the mood among middle class citizens and youth in Chengdu during and after the Covid lockdown in that city
Topic:
Culture, Youth, Ideology, COVID-19, Activism, and Politicization
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Chengdu

821. COSCO in Piraeus: Investment Embeddedness and the Question of Chinese 'influence'

Author:
Konstantinos Tsimonis and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Professor Tsimonis will present his research around the landmark investment of China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) in the port of Piraeus and discuss its political, social, economic and environmental repercussions. The speaker will approach COSCO's investment as an embedded phenomenon and unpack the agency of local, regional and global actors in order to assess the question of 'Chinese influence'. This talk will introduce to the Weatherhead audience the context of Chinese activities and policies in Greece. The speaker will also discuss the challenge and the necessity for developing independent China expertise in countries with no China studies tradition, as a way to mitigate the political risks arising from the PRC's global economic outreach.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economy, Investment, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
China, Greece, and Asia

822. And Now What? The Life, Status, and Education of Newly Fully Ordained Nuns in Bhutan

Author:
Dorji Gyeltshen and Lauran Hartley
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
This talk communicates the findings of a research project on the evolution of monastic education in the 21st century, in particular, for contemporary nuns in Bhutan. On June 23, 2022, the 70th Je Khenpo, Tulku Jigme Chodrak, at the request of the king of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, and in an event organized by the Bhutan Nuns Foundation, conducted a bhikṣuṇī ordination to 144 nuns, restoring the Mūlasarvāstivāda female lineage in the Himalayan tradition. It is difficult to understate the importance of this event since, by most accounts, bhikṣuṇī ordination had never been introduced to Tibet or Bhutan, and nuns have only had access to novice status since the introduction of Buddhism in the region in the 7th Century. The goal of this talk is to discuss how Bhutanese nuns were able to develop a pragmatic discourse that allowed them to achieve this historical accomplishment, and how the newly achieved bhikṣuṇī status has impacted the lives of Bhutanese nuns and nunneries.
Topic:
Religion, History, Buddhism, and Nuns
Political Geography:
Asia and Bhutan

823. PLA Views on US-China Relations

Author:
Yawei Liu and Andrew J. Nathan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
There is a wider range of views on U.S.-China relations, including how to handle the Taiwan issue, than is generally known. Dr. Liu will discuss the range of views on these issues among senior military officers.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Perception
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

824. Public Interest and State Legitimation: Early Modern England, Japan, and China–Book Talk, Wenkai He

Author:
Wenkai He and Junyan Jiang
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Wenkai He is an associate professor of Social Science in the Division of Social Science at The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He conducts deep and contextualized historical analysis of state formation in England, Japan, and China from the 16th to 19th century. He will give a talk on his second book, Public Interest and State Legitimation: Early Modern England, Japan, and China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2023), which investigates the connections between state capacity, state legitimation and the expansion of political participation. He demonstrates how in each case a public interest-based discourse of state legitimation provided a common platform upon which state and society collaborated to provide public goods such as famine relief and large-scale infrastructural facilities. Each discourse of state legitimation entailed ‘passive rights’ that allowed subordinates to justify their demands on the state to redress welfare grievances. Conflicts between domestic welfare and other dimensions of public interest, however, could instigate cross-regional and cross-sectoral mass petitions for fundamental political reforms that were likewise justified by the state’s proclaimed duty to safeguard the public interest; these mass petitions might ultimately transform the state. Such a political ‘great divergence’ occurred in England (1760s-1780s) and Japan (1870s-1880s), but not in China.
Topic:
History, State Formation, Book Talk, and Public Interest
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Europe, Asia, and England

825. Japan’s Role in Indo-Pacific Security

Author:
Satoru Mori and Ayumi Teraoka
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Facing an ever-intensifying security environment and rapidly shifting diplomatic and economic landscapes in the Indo-Pacific region, Japan aims to minimize the risks of an armed conflict while maximizing opportunities for region-wide economic and social exchange in an era of enduring great power rivalry. What are Japan’s challenges in deterring an armed conflict over Taiwan? What is Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific and what are its implications for the region? How does Japan envisage the roles that the Japan-US alliance and security cooperation with other countries may play in the Indo-Pacific? These and other issues and questions will be explored in order to illuminate what role Japan can play in regional security.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Armed Conflict, Regional Economy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

826. Book Launch & Talk: Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Mireya Solís and Gerald Curtis
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Dr. Mireya Solís of the Brookings Institution will lead a talk and Q&A session on her new book Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific scheduled for release on 1 September 2023. The book delves into Japan's transformation into a significant player in the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, highlighting its strengths in democratic resilience, social stability, and proactive diplomacy, while addressing pressing issues such as depopulation, rising inequality, and regional peace threats.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Democracy, Inequality, Leadership, Resilience, Social Stability, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

827. The Fruits of Opportunism: The Making of the World’s Largest For-profit Education Industry in China

Author:
Le Lin and Qin Gao
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Supplemental education, such as test-preparation coaching and after-school tutoring, has become increasingly influential in shaping educational outcome and social inequality in China, U.S. and around the world. This study examines the last forty years’ making of the world’s largest for-profit education industry—China’s supplemental education industry (the Industry)—on the margin of China’s socialist education system. How and why has the Industry privatized, marketized and become globally financialized, despite the Chinese state’s restrictive policies? Drawing on in-depth interviews, internal archives, and participant observations on 28 leading supplemental education organization, the study finds that the ambiguity of the Industry empowered socially marginalized entrepreneurs to enter this previously state-dominated market and found opportunistic organizations. With their opportunistic practices being made effective and invisible under ambiguity, opportunistic organizations as a prototype of private enterprises expanded the boundaries of market operations, facilitated the retreat of the state and fostered the Industry’s privatization and marketization. This study illustrates that while opportunism leaves destruction in its wake, it can also drive the formation and evolution of a market. The study also has implications for institutional change and social stratification during China’s market transition. This event is part of the 2023-2024 lecture series on “Labor Market Transformations in China" and is hosted by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and cosponsored by Columbia's China Center for Social Policy.
Topic:
Education, Markets, Privatization, and Industry
Political Geography:
China and Asia

828. Indigenous Knowledge Systems and Environmental Management on the Tibetan Plateau

Author:
Yangjee Sherpa, Hung T. T. Nguyen, Eveline Washul, and Lauran Hartley
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
This roundtable brings together social science researchers working with Tibetan and Himalayan pastoralist communities and climate scientists who have worked in the Himalayas and Asia to discuss how interdisciplinary approaches might enrich understandings of climate change in the Tibetan and Himalayan regions and contribute to knowledge of global climate change and community resilience. Organized by the CU-IU Climate Research Initiative on the Tibetan Plateau, this event is sponsored by the Inner Asian and Uralic National Resource Center at Indiana University and the Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Pastoralism, Resilience, Community, Knowledge Systems, and Traditional Knowledge
Political Geography:
Asia, Tibet, and Himalayas

829. The United States & Japan: Allied Against Disinformation

Author:
Rachel E. Brooks, Taro Nishikawa, Ryohei Suzuki, Jonathon Marek, and Koutaka Yuichiro
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Pacific Forum, like the US government and much of the international security community, considers the information space a crucial theater in the United States’ ongoing great power competition with the People’s Republic of China and Russia. To meet the need for fresh policy ideas, as well as Pacific Forum’s long-standing mandate to train the next generation of policy professions in the US and its partners, we present to you this volume. In it, readers will find the finalists of our Young Professionals Essay Contest, as part of our ongoing program, The United States & Japan: Allied Against Disinformation. Open to nationals of the two countries, the contest received numerous entries and the final decision was not an easy one—especially when comparing our finalists. On the Japanese side, Yuichiro Kotaka raises the threat posed by generative AI and poses solutions for how governments can address it, while Ryohei Suzuki suggests putting the public broadcaster NHK to use. On the US side, Jonathon Marek raises the alarm over the threat posed by authoritarian governments who have recognized disinformation as a valuable tool, while Thomas Ramage offers suggestion on how the alliance itself can address the threat that disinformation poses. However, our committee ultimately settled on two essays that stood out above the rest: on the Japanese side, Taro Nishikawa’s essay on counter-disinformation campaigns in the age of cognitive warfare was singled out for addressing the current discourse within China and for its focus on US-Japan responses. Among the American entries, Rachel Brooks’ take on how countering disinformation can be part of school curriculums received praise for its originality, creativity, and for providing both an educator’s narrative and an educator’s solution. We thank all of our contestants for their participation, and for contributing potential solutions in this age of information competition.
Topic:
International Security, Alliance, Strategic Competition, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

830. In Both Pyongyang and Seoul, an Ominous Hardening

Author:
Aidan Foster-Carter
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In mid-2023, the (non-existent) relations between the two Koreas got even worse, if that were possible. Confronting enlarged US-ROK military exercises, and the first visit of a US nuclear-armed submarine to the peninsula since 1981, Pyongyang’s nuclear threats grew ever more frenzied. In Seoul, President Yoon Suk Yeol institutionalized his hard line by downsizing and repurposing the Ministry of Unification (MOU). Criticizing MOU for acting in the past as a support department for North Korea, Yoon evidently conceives its future role as being to hinder Kim Jong Un’s regime—publicizing its human rights abuses, for instance—rather than help. Much as the DPRK’s ever-expanding WMD threat requires robust deterrence, for Seoul to start emulating Pyongyang’s unalloyed hostility hardly seems conducive to peace. The period under review also saw two attempts by North Korea to put a spy satellite into orbit; both failed. By contrast, the North’s missile launches hardly ever go wrong these days. The large solid-fuel Hwasong-18 ICBM, with a 15,000-km (9,300-mile) range, which first flew in April, had a second successful test on July 12.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

831. Stark Choices Confront Taiwan Voters

Author:
David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Taiwan’s presidential election campaign has begun. Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s vice president and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate, Hou Yu-ih from the Nationalist (Kuomintang, or KMT) Party, Ko Wen-je of Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), and independent Terry Gou offer Taiwan voters four different visions of Taiwan’s future relationship with China. As senior US and Chinese officials resumed long-stalled face-to-face meetings, China warned once again that it has no room for compromise or concession on Taiwan. Yet, when Lai completed almost invisible transits through the US en route to Paraguay and back, China’s military response seemed almost pro-forma. When US, Japanese, and South Korean leaders reiterated at the trilateral Camp David summit their staunch opposition to China’s intimidation, China chose to interpret their words as one more promise to support Taiwan. The US accelerated weapons deliveries to Taiwan and expanded training for Taiwan’s military, and Taiwan announced that its defense budget will increase by 7.5% in 2024. Taiwan’s TSMC moved forward on constructing its Arizona factory despite some hiccups, and the US and Taiwan signed a long-awaited trade deal—the first part of their 21st Century Trade Initiative. As Taiwan’s presidential and legislative election campaigns enter the home stretch, the DPP’s Lai continues to lead the race. How will Beijing respond? Will Taiwan voters choose caution and vote for the KMT, or will they again interpret Chinese intimidation as one more reason to give four more years to the DPP with its insistence on de-facto independence?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Domestic Politics, Voting, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

832. Eight Contradictions of the Imperialist ‘Rules-Based Order’

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
We are now entering a qualitatively new phase of world history. Significant global changes have emerged in the years since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. This can be seen in a new phase of imperialism and changes in the particularities of eight contradictions.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, Imperialism, Financial Crisis, Capitalism, Global South, Socialism, and International Order
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Global Focus, and United States of America

833. How Chinese Propaganda Works

Author:
Grigol Julukhidze
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
China is becoming an ever more powerful player in the international political arena. Once a regional power, it now represents the main rival to US global dominance. Over the last few years, Beijing has actively started to apply “propagandistic methods” in order to increase its importance and demonize actual or potential foes. From this point of view, the visibility of the Chinese propaganda model is not as high in Georgia as, for example, the Russian. The main task of the below-presented expert opinion is to illustrate and analyze one of the most powerful machines of disinformation in the world and answer the question, “How does Chinese propaganda work?”
Topic:
Propaganda, Disinformation, and International Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, and Georgia

834. The People-to-People Exchange Between China and Georgia in the Frames of the Belt and Road Initiative

Author:
Jing Shi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Since the launch of the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) in September 2013, the interaction between China and the post-Soviet Eurasian countries has become more dynamic than ever before. Considering the individuality among and differences between these countries (Sun, 2023), and the specific forms of cooperation, China has adopted unified but differentiated objectives and plans for collaboration with them. A key feature is that countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative receive preferential policies and conveniences within the cooperation framework. Meanwhile, bilateral cooperation is also being actively seen. The primary case study chosen to illustrate the progress and current status of people-to-people exchange in this paper is the relationship between China and Georgia. Georgia’s case serves as a representative example when examining cooperation and interaction within the BRI. The exploration of China’s BRI lays the groundwork for understanding the broader context of international collaboration. Within this expansive framework, the specific case study of China-Georgia relations provides a nuanced lens through which to examine the intricacies of people-to-people exchange and cooperation. Evaluating China-Georgia relations through traditional perspectives may risk overlooking the full reality. Firstly, Georgia actively participates in the BRI, demonstrating significant interest in collaboration with China for mutual benefits and profits (Gürcan, 2020). Secondly, due to its geographical distance from China compared to Central Asian states, the forms of interaction and connectivity between Georgia and China require efforts from both sides. This dynamic not only presents specific challenges for various forms of cooperation within the BRI framework, but also underscores the significance and value of this research. Thirdly, analyzing the China-Georgia interaction uniquely from the perspective of the BRI is necessary. When discussing China-Georgia relations, people-to-people exchange and cooperation in science, education, culture, and health represent the realization of mutual interests and understanding between the two countries (Shi, 2018).
Topic:
Development, Education, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Caucasus, Asia, and Georgia

835. The Sources of China’s Innovativeness: Why China’s “Unstoppable” Innovation Powerhouse Might Falter

Author:
Tim Rühlig
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
Western governments appear to fear that China is an ­innovation power­house on an almost unstoppable path to dominating ­future technologies. This is quite a turnaround. Only a few years ago, Western policies were crafted on the assumption that China was a copycat incapable of innovation. A focus on Intellectual Property theft as the Chinese “sin” that drove China’s technological development led many in the West to miss what I have identified as the “Five Virtues” that have made China the innovation powerhouse it is today. China’s future success is not ­in­evitable, however, but dependent on a delicate policy ecosystem.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Innovation, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China and Asia

836. The Conventional Wisdom About the Chinese Military Challenge: Incomplete and Unpersuasive

Author:
Steven Kosiak
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Abstract:
Now possessing the world’s largest economy and backed up by an increasingly capable military, in recent years China has grown into an ever more significant and complex concern for the United States, its friends and allies, and others in the Indo–Pacific region. It has become not only stronger and more capable but, in a variety of areas, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Straits, more assertive. In this light, it is only prudent that the United States remain engaged in the region and, along with its allies, maintain robust military capabilities. At the same time, however, it is difficult to understand some of the main features of what has emerged as the conventional wisdom concerning the magnitude, scope and shape of the challenge China represents, particularly in its military dimensions. Among other things, shortcomings in the conventional wisdom include the unsettling degree to which mainstream assessments of the Chinese military challenge have: • devoted enormous attention to various Taiwan contingencies and, by comparison, remarkably little attention to the Chinese military’s capacity — or lack thereof — to directly conquer or coerce any of the major powers in the region; • equated defending Taiwan, and other relatively small nearby economies, with preventing Chinese regional hegemony, without providing significant analytical support for the presumption; • argued that Taiwan is defensible, in part because of the vulnerability of seaborne invasion forces to precision-guided munitions, as well as the difficulties inherent strategies aimed at punishing adversaries into submission (e.g., through bombardment or blockade) — while seeming to ignore the logical inferences of those conclusions for the defensibility of the major powers in the region, which are larger, economically stronger and generally located much farther from China; • analogized the challenge posed by China today to the threats posed by Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in World War Two and the Soviet Union during the Cold War in ways that — because of differences in, among other things, geography, technology, nationalism, and China’s role in the global economy (including its great dependence on international trade) — may do more to obscure than illuminate the challenge. These analytical shortcomings need to be addressed through additional, more rigorous and better focused research and analysis. While clearly needed, however, it seems unlikely that this additional analysis will come close to fully redeeming the conventional wisdom about the Chinese military challenge as articulated today, including the necessity of some key components of the U.S. military’s existing force structure, modernization and other plans. Taken together, the gaps, weaknesses, blind spots, and analytical leaps upon which the conventional wisdom rests appear too pervasive and deep for such to be the case. Given this reality, rather than the current U.S. strategy, embracing something akin to the Active Denial strategy proposed by a Quincy Institute panel in 2022 would seem to represent a more prudent approach. 1 This strategy embraces some cuts to force structure — especially among ground forces — yielding significant budgetary savings. But it retrains robust air, naval and other forces that would leave the U.S. military with a powerful capacity to deter and, if need be, counter Chinese aggression in the Indo–Pacific and, specifically, to support key U.S. allies and friends in the region. And better addressing the areas noted above could go far towards facilitating the refinement of this more restrained strategy, and ensuring that it is both as effective as possible and can be supported at an affordable and sustainable price.
Topic:
Nationalism, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Influence, and Military
Political Geography:
China, India, Asia, and United States of America

837. Connecting the Pieces: China’s Bricolage Surveillance System

Author:
Kevin D. Haggerty
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Over the last decade, China’s ruling Communist Party has been molding a style of governance built on advanced surveillance capabilities. In some respects, this development is not novel. Modern states have long used surveillance to identify geopolitical risks, fight crime, deliver services, and conduct wars, among other objectives.2 As such, surveillance is normatively neutral; it encompasses practices that run the gamut from appealing to appalling. However, recent developments in China fall on the shocking end of this continuum, signaling an unsettling qualitative and quantitative transformation in state-conducted surveillance. Those interested in the dynamics of governance, the contemporary international order, and the emergence of techno-totalitarianism should pay close attention. China’s surveillance measures restrict millions of peoples’ liberties and are crucial in facilitating the unfolding genocide of the Uyghur people. Furthermore, Chinese officials are globally exporting both these surveillance technologies and the repressive governmental ambitions that shape their use.3 State surveillance involves using familiar tools, such as CCTV cameras and spies, and a tremendous assortment of other devices and systems designed to make populations, processes, and places legible.4 China distinguishes itself not only by the sheer volume of its monitoring devices, but also by optimizing and integrating its computing capabilities into a system unparalleled in scope and efficiency. Since assuming the Presidency in 2012, Xi Jinping has increasingly embraced surveillance, positioning information technology as a centerpiece of China’s pursuit of national stability and enhanced geopolitical standing. Such monitoring serves diverse purposes, but a central concern of the Communist Party is to maintain “social stability.” This catch-all euphemism empowers the authorities to identify and “correct” an eclectic and extraordinarily inclusive assortment of activities through not only more surveillance, but also surveil- lance-augmented forms of shaming, intimidation, re-education, violence, and disappearance. This essay focuses on factors that have contributed to the expansion of totalitarian surveillance in China and offers a framework for interpreting these developments beyond the usual fixation on novel technological tools. While the term “totalitarian” is often used loosely as a simple condemnation, it is apt here given the scope and form of social control currently being pursued by PRC authorities. Monitoring in China has become integral to censorship, propaganda, and unvarnished repression—all tactics that advance and protect the Communist Party’s idiosyncratic vision of social stability. As a result, the Chinese state’s desire for domestic order now entails inspecting everyday life at a granular level that was previously inconceivable.
Topic:
Governance, Surveillance, Totalitarianism, Censorship, and Information Technology
Political Geography:
China and Asia

838. Technological Sophistication Made in China? – New Insights from Germany’s Evaluation of COVID-19 Antigen Rapid Tests

Author:
Silas Dreier and Wan-Hsin Liu
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
By analyzing a unique dataset from Germany’s evaluation of COVID-19 antigen rapid tests, we show that Chinese firms can excel under today’s global competition and produce tests at quality levels higher than China’s income level would suggest. We find these achievements are positively associated with China’s rising innovation capability and robust industrial base. Further strengthening China’s innovation and industrial base to support Chinese firms’ future accomplishments is what the Chinese government clearly aims for. This would intensify the challenges facing Western economies that strive for technological sovereignty and eagerly seek to de-risk their economic relations with China.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Innovation, Trade, COVID-19, Production, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Germany

839. Spring 2023 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:
Levon Hovsepyan
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:
Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:
CONTENTS LILIT HARUTYUNYAN SUNNI AND SHIA COMMUNITIES’ TRANSFORMATIONS IN LEBANON: CHANGES IN THE BALANCE OF POWER ……………………………………………………………………………………..6 KUANG-HO YEH, GUIHUA NI CHINA-PAKISTAN SPACE COOPERATION: PATH, MOTIVATION AND THE FUTURE …………………………………..…......................................................26 ARAM GASPARYAN SOME ASPECTS OF THE ALGERIAN-RUSSIAN MILITARY COOPERATION: THE FEATURES AND PROSPECTS................................................................... .51 WU YEYAN A STUDY ON JAPANESE MINGEI’S BIRTH IN TAISHO ERA AND ALIENATION IN SHOWA ERA ……………………………………………...….64 REPORT CURRENT TRENDS IN TERRORISM: PROGRAM ON TERRORISM AND SECURITY STUDIES HELD AT THE GEORGE C. MARSHALL EUROPEAN CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES IN GERMANY………………………………………………………..…………….….76 WORKSHOP THE PARLIAMENTARY AND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN TURKEY OF 2023……………………………………………………………………..…………..80
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, History, Bilateral Relations, Sectarianism, Domestic Politics, Space, Sunni, and Shiism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Japan, China, South Asia, Middle East, Asia, Germany, and Lebanon

840. Fall 2023 edition of Contemporary Eurasia

Author:
Levon Hovsepyan
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Contemporary Eurasia
Institution:
Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia
Abstract:
CONTENTS LILIT HARUTYUNYAN THE IMPACT OF THE SYRIAN CRISIS ON LEBANON: GEOPOLITICAL ASPECT (THE BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT) ............................................................. 5 ZHAO DONGQIAN THE EVOLUTION, ACHIEVEMENTS, AND PROSPECTS OF THE CHINESE SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS THEORY ................................ 15 NAZELI NAVASARDYAN, TATEVIK MANUKYAN RESUMPTION OF THE KURDISH CARD IN IRANIAN-IRAQI RELATIONS: COMPLEX INTERPLAY, PRE-REFERENDUM REALITIES ........................... 31 ARTYOM TONOYAN, LIANA PETROSYAN THE MUSAVAT AZERBAIJAN POLICY TOWARDS KURDS: PARALLELS WITH POST-SOVIET AZERBAIJAN’S ETHNIC POLICY ............................... 46 KUANG-HO YEH THE IMPLEMENTATION MECHANISM, APPLICATION, AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF TURKEY’S DRONE STRATEGY ............ 63 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE THE SYRIAN CRISIS AND THE KURDISH FACTOR: INTRA-KURDISH, REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS ............................................... 83
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Minorities, Geopolitics, Drones, International Relations Theory, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:
China, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Asia, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, and Syria

841. EU-China relations in an uncertain world: Walking a geopolitical tightrope

Author:
Sinikukka Saari, Niklas Helwig, Juha Jokela, and Mikael Mattlin
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
After the 2008 financial crisis, the EU’s approach towards China shifted from overconfidence in European normative power to an embrace of unconditional economic engagement with China. The EU policy of de-risking is critically important, but it needs to be carefully considered, managed, and communicated to China. US-China tensions and American debates on China impact the EU’s approach. Nevertheless, there are significant differences between European and US positions on China irrespective of which party holds power in the US. China’s position on Russia’s war of aggression is a make-or-break issue for the EU. By actively enabling Russia’s invasion, China is harming its own long-term interests in Europe and globally. It is in Europe’s interests to avoid framing current international dynamics in terms of “the West and the rest”. Although this discourse may be popular domestically, there is a danger of it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Geopolitics, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

842. China Maritime Report No. 33: China's Sea-Based Nuclear Deterrent: Organizational, Operational, and Strategic Implications

Author:
David C. Logan
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
China’s development of a credible sea-based deterrent has important implications for the PLAN, for China’s nuclear strategy, and for U.S.-China strategic stability. For the PLAN, the need to protect the SSBN force may divert resources away from other missions; it may also provide justification for further expansion of the PLAN fleet size. For China’s nuclear strategy and operations, the SSBN force may increase operational and bureaucratic pressures for adopting a more forward-leaning nuclear strategy. For U.S.-China strategic stability, the SSBN force will have complex effects, decreasing risks that Chinese decisionmakers confront use-or-lose escalation pressures, making China less susceptible to U.S. nuclear threats and intimidation and therefore perceiving lower costs to conventional aggression, and potentially introducing escalation risks from conventional-nuclear entanglement to the maritime domain.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Navy, Maritime, Deterrence, Submarines, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

843. China Maritime Report No. 32: The PCH191 Modular Long-Range Rocket Launcher: Reshaping the PLA Army's Role in a Cross-Strait Campaign

Author:
Joshua Arostegui
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:
With its fielding of the PCH191 multiple rocket launcher (MRL) and its variety of long-range precision munitions, the PLA Army (PLAA) has become arguably the most important contributor of campaign and tactical firepower during a joint island landing campaign against Taiwan. No longer simply the primary source of amphibious and air assault forces, the PLAA is now capable of using its multiple battalions of PCH191 MRLs to support maritime dominance, the joint firepower strike, and ground forces landing on Taiwan’s shores and in depth. The Chinese ordnance industry has developed multiple low-cost rockets, an anti-ship cruise missile, and a tactical missile to be used with the PCH191, as well as its export variant, the AR3, including munitions that can quickly and precisely strike targets in the Taiwan Strait, across the island, and beyond. Recent demonstrations of the PCH191 during PLA training events and Eastern Theater Command response actions to politically charged visits, in addition to the fielding of new reconnaissance assets capable of providing targeting and battle damage assessments to the MRL, make it clear the Army intends to use the system to achieve effects in a future Taiwan crisis that formerly would have been the responsibility of other PLA services.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Weapons, Maritime, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Military Training
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

844. The Paradox of ASEAN Way in Marine Plastic Pollution: The Challenge of Compliance Among Member States

Author:
Ria Wierma Putri and Febryani Sabatira
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
ASEAN countries are considered significant contributors to global pollution, particularly concerning marine plastic pollution (MPP), which has emerged as a critical concern in the region. To address this issue, ASEAN has established three specific instruments: the Bangkok Declaration on Combating Marine Debris in 2019, the ASEAN Framework of Action on Marine Debris 2019, and the ASEAN Regional Action Plan for Combating Marine Debris in the ASEAN Member States 2021-2025. However, being soft laws, these instruments lack legally binding force, allowing states to choose not to implement them effectively and promptly, leading to low compliance rates. The root cause of this compliance challenge lies in the ASEAN Way’s foundational principle, which promotes non-intervention, resulting in non-legally binding instruments. This raises genuine concerns about the potential inefficacy of implementing ASEAN instruments. Nonetheless, the issue of marine plastic pollution is considered a contemporary environmental catastrophe in the region, demanding Member States to prioritize compliance. Hence, this study delves into two key issues: (1) the ASEAN Way and compliance and (2) regional mechanisms to bolster Member States’ adherence in combating marine plastic pollution.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Oceans and Seas, Pollution, ASEAN, and Compliance
Political Geography:
Asia and Southeast Asia

845. The EU and Taiwan: Normalizing the Status Quo

Author:
Jasper Roctus
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
When I read Egmont colleague Sven Biscop’s My Summer in Beijing, I was just about to depart to a little-recognized political entity off the Chinese coast that – constitutionally, at least – still claims Beijing as part of its territory: The Republic of China (ROC/Taiwan). Unlike my colleague, I was not questioned on the academic desirability of my stay – Taiwan has over the last few decades consistently ranked in the higher echelons of academic freedom. I was, however, counselled on multiple occasions to reconsider by concerned family and friends who had seen sensational media reports claiming that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) could attack at any moment. Staying in a serene yet vibrant Taipei, visiting multiple places of interest and meeting with local scholars, I have noticed that confusion reigns not only in Europe toward Taiwan, but also in Taiwan toward Europe. Especially the cross-Strait position of the EU, which does not recognize Taiwan due to ‘its “one China” policy’ but has over the last two decades increased the scope of engagement with Taiwan, is little understood. As exchanges between Brussels and Taipei intensify, there is an increasing urgency to consolidate the EU’s position on Taiwan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, and Asia

846. US-Japan-Taiwan Dialogue: Deterrence Signaling, Domestic Politics, Defense Cooperation, and War Termination

Author:
Michael Beckley
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
The risk of a war over Taiwan is higher today than at any time in the past half-century. Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping has declared that Taiwan’s reunification with the mainland is an “inevitable requirement” for the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and “should not be passed down generation after generation.” Yet peaceful means of reunification have all but disappeared because most Taiwanese are more determined than ever to maintain their de facto independence. This stance threatens China’s territorial integrity, as defined by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Xi’s legitimacy as top leader. In response, China is brandishing its military option. Over the past three years, it has conducted the largest and most provocative show of force in the Taiwan Strait in a generation. Chinese military patrols, some involving a dozen warships and more than fifty combat aircraft, menace Taiwan almost daily and often simulate attacks on Taiwanese, Japanese, or US targets. Meanwhile, China has been amassing ships, aircraft, and missiles as part of the largest military buildup by any country in decades. Its military budget increased tenfold from 1990 to 2020. From 2020 to 2023, it doubled the size of its nuclear arsenal. China now militarily outspends every other country in Asia combined. It wields the world’s largest ballistic missile inventory and navy by number of ships. Moreover, Beijing has become increasingly belligerent in its relations with neighbors from Japan to India. The United States has tried to deter Chinese aggression by declaring its support for Taiwan. But it is no longer clear that the US military could immediately respond to a Chinese assault on the island. Historically, the United States has relied on its manufacturing prowess to outproduce adversaries after a war starts. But now that China is the world’s leading manufacturing nation by output, it is possible that both sides could sustain a protracted conventional war—and might be tempted to break the stalemate by using nuclear weapons against military targets. These dangerous trends make deterrence and defense cooperation among the United States, Japan, and Taiwan extremely important. Toward that end, the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) convened a US-Japan-Taiwan Track 2 dialogue in November 2023 to discuss deterrence and defense cooperation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Deterrence, Dialogue, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

847. Seoul Searching: Lessons from South Korea's Experience with Sanctions against Russia

Author:
Maximilian Hess
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Russia and the West have found themselves enmeshed in an expansive economic war as a result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. While the conflict on the ground in Ukraine is undoubtedly—and tragically—the primary front of Russia’s aggression, and where its aggression reaps its most dramatic horrors, Western powers have joined with a wide swathe of the international community to support Ukraine’s resistance and hold the Kremlin to account. But as with the kinetic war in Ukraine, the conflict did not begin one evening last February. It was first launched by Russia in response to Ukraine’s pro-Western, anti-corruption Maidan Revolution that raged through the winter of 2013–2014, ultimately resulting in the ouster of Viktor Yanukovych after he sought to capitulate to the Kremlin and refuse protesters’ and the wider Ukrainian public’s demands for continuing the country’s pro-European and pro-Western agenda. Russia was the first power to use sanctions and trade restrictions in the conflict, namely against Ukraine in 2013.[1] Russia also first sought to use Ukraine’s future to bring the international economic order into the scope of its fight even before Yanukovych’s ouster.[2] However, economic and technology restrictions on Russia have been at the core of the wider West’s strategy of support for Ukraine throughout that period. The target of these tools has changed significantly, initially aimed at deterring Russia from further aggression after 2014 to seeking to restrict its state capacity and ability to wage the war since 2022. But their global impact and Putin’s attempts to undermine the international order through his own weaponization of Russia’s economy and its commodities base have left the world in a new era of international economic competition, and other powers, great and small, are being impacted in ways unforeseen. States are, in turn, also learning lessons from this new era of economic warfare for the future, and the risks they might face from such conflict. This paper examines the impact on one often overlooked but deeply affected country, the Republic of Korea (or South Korea). Seoul has a unique position in the economic war in that it was arguably the largest Western ally that did not join the sanctions regime against Russia after Putin’s annexation of Crimea and fomenting conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014. In fact, as we will see, a number of crucial economic ties between Russia and South Korea grew significantly thereafter; although this was also the case for a number of countries that induced sanctions—Germany’s gas linkages with Russia in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline are perhaps the best known example. This paper will examine Seoul’s strategic considerations in doing so, and the reasons that the West did not put substantial pressure on South Korea to join the sanctions regime at the time. Seoul did, however, join the sanctions regime fully in 2022. The domestic political considerations in South Korea played a key role in that shift and will also determine how the policy’s effectiveness is judged and, in turn, how South Korea may be positioned for future similar economic conflict between the West and China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Economy, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Asia, and South Korea

848. Chinese Soft Power

Author:
Robert Edmund Łoś
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
China’s modern power is based on traditional sources: territory size, demographics, economy, and army. An important factor of power is soft power, which is based on culture, foreign policy (including economics), and values. Chinese soft power resources have an old tradition and the possibility of using them is large, and most importantly, in the current international environment, they can use them to gain and maintain an advantage over competitors. The article presents the elements of China’s soft power that determine its advantage over other countries and the weaknesses that may limit its influence. It largely determines the research methods used: statistics and system analysis. The latter method makes it possible to determine the scale of China’s influence and the chances of using them in the 21st century.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Culture, Soft Power, and Values
Political Geography:
China and Asia

849. People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force Order of Battle 2023

Author:
Decker Eveleth
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
The People’s Republic of China is currently in the process of radically expanding its arsenal of conventional and nuclear land-based missile launchers. Over the past decade China has doubled the number of combat missile brigades in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), and has unveiled a myriad of new capabilities, including missiles capable of firing both conventional and nuclear warheads, and missiles equipped with hypersonic glide vehicles designed to evade missile defenses. The technologies and deployment patterns of these weapons are important indicators of the direction of China’s force posture: they not only indicate China’s military capabilities, but also its fears and its conceptions about how future wars in the region will be conducted. Deployment of particular systems with certain capabilities to certain regions can inform us of what, how, and when China might strike certain targets, which in turn can help us understand what China prioritizes as a threat. The current expansion of China’s missile forces suggests a possible departure from China’s previously restrained second-strike nuclear posture to a posture capable of deterring at multiple levels of conflict and an increased shift towards nuclear warfighting. As the Sino-American relationship becomes increasingly volatile over the status of Taiwan, gaining accurate data on China’s conventional and nuclear missile forces becomes more important than ever. Since China first established a ballistic missile force, that force has historically been quite small, kept at low levels of readiness, and constrained by a policy forswearing the first use of nuclear weapons. A little over a decade ago, China only possessed around 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), of which only the 18 DF-5 ICBMs in silos and 12 DF-31A mobile launchers could reliably reach the contiguous United States. 1 After Xi Jinping elevated China’s missile forces into a full branch of the People’s Liberation Army in 2015, the number of missile launchers deployed by the PRC has increased rapidly. The PLARF, responsible for the operation of all non-tactical ground-based surface-to-surface missile systems in China’s inventory, operates both conventional and nuclear missiles for a variety of strategic missions. This could include utilizing short, medium, and intermediate-range missiles to neutralize Taiwanese defensive installations, striking US warships at long-range while those warships are at sea or in port, or a retaliatory nuclear strike mission. The PLARF is now on track to deploy more than 1,000 ballistic missile launchers by 2028, including at least 507 nuclear capable launchers, 342 to 432 conventional launchers, and 252 dual-capable launchers. At least 320 solid-fueled fixed ICBM silos and 30 liquid-fueled fixed ICBM silos are currently under construction in addition to China’s growing arsenal of mobile ICBM launchers. And this tally does not even touch launchers operated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The dramatic multiplication in missile forces, both in terms of those missiles capable of reaching the United States, and those missiles that offer China new capabilities in a regional war, have serious implications for the strategic balance in East Asia as well as the future direction of China’s nuclear posture. The direction of the posture is difficult to assess due to the lack of sources coming out of China. As the Chinese government has not officially commented on the buildup or acknowledged its scope, any concrete data, like statements and records from the PLARF itself or Chinese strategists, is hard to come by. Because of this, analysis of what the PLARF is actually deploying and in what quantity is one of our only windows into developments into how the PRC thinks about its nuclear weapons arsenal and how to use it. Open-source intelligence techniques allow researchers to collect this data. By utilizing publicly available information and commercial satellite imagery, researchers can examine foreign military organizations in a level of detail that was previously only available to state intelligence agencies.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Nonproliferation, Military, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

850. Tourism Exports, Digitalisation, and Employment during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Case of Indonesia

Author:
Mini P. Thomas, Archana Srivastava, and Keerti Mallela
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study aims to examine the relationship amongst tourism exports, digitalisation, and employment in tourism and allied sectors of Indonesia; and to throw light on how low-, medium, and high-skilled employment have been impacted during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. We include both transport service exports and travel service exports within the ambit of tourism exports. Digitalisation is defined in terms of digitally deliverable services. The study classifies employment at varying skill levels on the basis of educational qualifications, and occupation-based skill classification is used as a robustness check. The COVID-19 pandemic is captured with the help of a time dummy variable and also using the Stringency Index. The study estimates the bound testing approach to the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model using quarterly time series data, and the autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable (ARMAX) model using monthly time series data, to understand the nature of the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics amongst the variables of interest. The study establishes the presence of cointegration amongst employment, tourism exports, digitalisation, and other control variables in all four cases – total employment, and low-, medium-, and high-skilled employment. We find tourism exports to have a positive and significant impact on employment, except high-skilled employment. Digitalisation of tourism exports is found to have a significant but negative impact on the total, low-skilled and medium-skilled employment. The COVID-19 pandemic is also found to have a negative and significant impact on total employment in Indonesia, with low-skilled employment being the worst affected
Topic:
Tourism, Employment, Exports, COVID-19, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia