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6402. Global Trends 2010
- Publication Date:
- 12-1997
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- In fall 1996, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) held a series of conferences at National Defense University to identify key global trends and their impact on major regions and countries of the globe. The exercise was designed to help describe and assess major features of the political world as they will appear in the year 2010.
- Topic:
- International Relations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and South America
6403. The Political Economy of Regional Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin, with Special Reference to APEC-A Rapporteurs' Report
- Author:
- Joseph Stevano and William Barnes
- Publication Date:
- 04-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The papers and discussion summarized here were presented at the workshop “The Political Economy of Regional Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin, with Special Reference to APEC,” which was held at the Kellogg Institute, 12–14 October 1995. Some of the papers presented, including those by Yoji Akashi, Brian Job, and Clark Reynolds, will also be published in their entirety as part of the Kellogg Institute Working Paper Series. The United States, Canada, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, and many other East Asian countries all belong to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and a distinctive feature of the workshop was that it consisted of experts from both sides of the Pacific. The result is a comprehensive look at the issues of trade and development in this region. Yorizumi Watanabe pointed out some tensions between regional and multilateral trade agreements. Satoshi Hanai’s paper analyzed the current Japanese recession; the papers by Akashi, Tsutomu Kikuchi, and Job focused on APEC, the former two from an Asian perspective, the latter from a North American—which provided a provocative contrast between different explanations and interpretations of the exact same events. Shozo Inouye analyzed Japan’s contribution to human resource development throughout the Asia-Pacific, while Michael Plummer and Reynolds analyzed the economic impact of economic integration in this region.
- Topic:
- Development, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Growth
- Political Geography:
- Asia
6404. The China-United States Bilateral Trade Balance: How Big Is It Really?
- Author:
- K.C. Fung and Lawrence Lau
- Publication Date:
- 04-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- There are huge discrepancies between the official Chinese and U.S. estimates of the bilateral trade balance. The discrepancies are caused by different treatments accorded to re-exports through Hong Kong, re-export markups, and trade in services. Deficit-shifting between China, on the one hand, and Hong Kong and Taiwan, on the other, due to direct investment in China from Taiwan and Hong Kong, is partly responsible for the growth in the China United States bilateral trade deficit.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Taiwan, Asia, and Hong Kong
6405. A United States Policy for the Changing Realities of East Asia
- Author:
- Donald Emmerson, Henry Rowen, Michel Oksenberg, Daniel Okimoto, James Raphael, Thomas Rohlen, and Michael H. Armacost
- Publication Date:
- 01-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Cold War, the power and prestige of the United States in East Asia have suffered a worrisome degree of erosion. The erosion is, in part, the by-product of long-run secular trends, such as structural shifts in the balance of power caused by the pacesetting growth of East Asian economies. But the decline has been aggravated by shortcomings in U.S. policy toward East Asia, particularly the lack of a coherent strategy and a clear-cut set of policy priorities for the post-Cold War environment. If these shortcomings are not corrected, the United States runs the risk of being marginalized in East Asia--precisely at a time when our stakes in the region are as essential as those in any area of the world. What is needed, above all, is a sound, consistent, and publicly articulated strategy, one which holds forth the prospect of serving as the basis for a sustainable, nonpartisan domestic consensus. The elements of an emerging national consensus can be identified as follows:
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia
6406. Trojan Horse or Boomerang: Two-Tiered Investment in the Asian Auto Complex
- Author:
- Gregory W. Noble
- Publication Date:
- 11-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- The last decade has witnessed a momentous transformation in the political economy of East and Southeast Asia. From the 1950s until the early 1980s transnational production played a limited role in the strategies of Northeast Asian governments and firms. Ubiquitous policies of protection and promotion aimed to increase domestic investment, production and exports. Governments discouraged outward investment through financial controls, particularly over foreign currencies; they limited inward foreign investment to narrowly confined niches, and then often subjected it to onerous restrictions to prevent foreigners from gaining a major foothold in the national economy. The few exceptions involved areas in which domestic production was inadequate: investments in Southeast Asian raw materials and energy; investments by Japanese and Western firms in Korea and Taiwan for some labor-intensive products to be sold in local or third-country markets (but rarely in Japan); and a handful of high-tech investments by Western firms such as IBM which enjoyed such strong patent positions that they could not be forced to license their technology. Since the mid-1980s the combination of rapid currency appreciation, rising costs of labor, land and pollution control in Northeast Asia, and liberalizing economic reforms in Southeast Asia led to a huge surge of direct foreign investment, mainly for the production of labor-intensive manufactured goods. The focal point of Northeast Asian economies shifted from export-led growth based on protected domestic markets to management of regional production networks spread throughout Asia.
- Topic:
- Economics and Industrial Policy
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Taiwan, Asia, and Korea
6407. Energy and Security in Northeast Asia
- Author:
- Michael May, Michael Stankiewicz, Edward Fei, Celeste Johnson, and Tatsujiro Suzuki
- Publication Date:
- 08-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Since 1993, the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), a state-wide policy research institute of the University of California, has coordinated a series of high-level, track two consultations among security experts and officials from China, Japan, North and South Korea, Russia, and the United States. Known as the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD), this forum has sought to reduce mistrust within the North Pacific region, and to avert conflicts among the major powers in Asia through ongoing, multilateral dialogues about current security issues. The informality of the process allows the participants to air their concerns and brainstorm about new approaches to building cooperation and reducing the risk of conflict in Northeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Asia, Korea, and Northeast Asia
6408. The Major Powers in Northeast Asian Security
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa
- Publication Date:
- 08-1996
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The political, economic, and security environment of the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century will be shaped in very large part by the interrelationships among the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. To the extent these four nations can cooperate, a generally benign environment can develop in which the challenges sure to develop in the region can be managed. Conversely, tensions and conflict among the four will have a profoundly destabilizing impact regionally, if not globally.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Asia, and Northeast Asia
6409. Asian Economic Success and Latin American Failure in the 1980s: New Analyses and Future Policy Implications
- Author:
- Ajit Singh
- Publication Date:
- 03-1994
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- A striking feature of the world economy during the last decade has been the collapse of economic growth in Latin America whilst industrialization and development have proceeded apace in the Asian countries. This paper first assesses alternative explanations of the Asian economic success and the Latin American failure during the 1980s. Secondly, it examines the related question of the long-term development strategies followed by the outstandingly successful East Asian economies. The paper arrives at rather different analyses and policy conclusions on these issues from those of the international financial institutions and the mainstream economists.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Economic Development, and Financial Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Latin America
6410. Report of the Commission on Radio and Television Policy: Volume 6, Number 2
- Publication Date:
- 09-1994
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- In September 1994, the Commission on Radio and Television Policy, bringing together the New Independent States, Poland, the Czech Republic, and the United States, met in St. Petersburg, Russia, to discuss the most important policy issue of the electronic media: how to strengthen the independence of radio and television. The members of the Commission represented several different approaches and types of government, but, in the end, there was unanimous agreement on a communiqué urging all parties to defend and extend autonomy of the media.
- Topic:
- Democratization and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
6411. The State, Markets, and Development: A Rapporteurs' Report
- Author:
- Enrique Dussel Peters and Matthew A. Verghis
- Publication Date:
- 06-1993
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This report summarizes the papers and discussions from a conference held at the Kellogg Institute on "The State, Markets and Development." The first section addresses theoretical issues while the second presents the case studies discussed at the conference.
- Topic:
- Development, Markets, Economic Growth, and State
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South America, Central America, and Caribbean
6412. Juan Linz, Presidentialism, and Democracy: A Critical Appraisal
- Author:
- Scott Mainwaring and Matthew Shugart
- Publication Date:
- 07-1993
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper briefly reviews and critically assesses Juan Linz's arguments about the perils of presidentialism. We largely agree with Linz that presidentialism as it is normally practiced is less likely than parliamentarism to sustain democratic government. Nevertheless, we introduce a number of caveats into the argument. Although we agree with most aspects of Linz's four major criticisms of presidentialism, we disagree with one of them: we argue that presidentialism is less oriented towards winner-takes-all results than Westminster parliamentary systems. We also claim that presidentialism has some advantages that partially offset its drawbacks. These advantages can be maximized by paying careful attention to differences among presidential systems; we build a case for presidencies with weak legislative powers. Presidentialism also appears to be more viable with parties that are at least moderately disciplined, and it is especially problematic with highly fragmented multiparty systems and with congressional elections that occur more frequently than presidential elections. Finally, we argue that switching from presidentialism to parliamentarism could exacerbate problems of governability in countries with very undisciplined parties. All of these points suggest that even if Linz is largely correct in his argument that parliamentary government is more conducive to stable democracy, a great deal rests on what kind of parliamentarism and what kind of presidentialism are implemented.
- Topic:
- Government, Governance, Democracy, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Asia, and South America
6413. Report of the Commission on Radio and Television Policy: Volume 5, Number 1
- Publication Date:
- 11-1993
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Changing economic relations are among the most important issues in the future of telecommunications throughout the world. Everywhere, governments and private companies are attentive to profound changes introduced by the processes of privatization, democratization, and development and implementation of new technologies. The future is already upon us, with great speed and often unexpected consequences.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
6414. Resolving Intra-National Conflicts: A Strengthened Role for Intergovernmental Organizations
- Author:
- Jimmy Carter
- Publication Date:
- 02-1993
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- On the following pages, the reader will find a comprehensive summary of the 1993 International Negotiation Network (INN) Consultation, "Resolving Intra-National Conflicts: A Strengthened Role for Intergovernmental Organizations."
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Eastern Europe, and Asia
6415. Report of The Commission on Radio and Television Policy:Volume 4, Number 1
- Publication Date:
- 11-1992
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- The meeting in Alma Ata of the Commission on Radio and Television Policy marked a new and important stage in the collaboration between the United States and the former Soviet Union. I was proud to serve as co-chairman, together with Eduard Sagalaev. The Commission now has been enlarged to include the major television stations of newly independent republics of the former Soviet Union and the head of an organization of independent stations. It is a unique body.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
6416. Resolving Intra-National Conflicts: A Strengthened Role for Non-Governmental Actors
- Publication Date:
- 01-1992
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- This report is a summary of the inaugural consultation of the International Negotiation Network (INN), held at The Carter Center of Emory University CCEU), in Atlanta, Georgia, January 14-17, 1992. The consultation brought together over 200 invited guests from 40 countries and more than 150 organizations or governments. It was made possible through the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, and shaped in part by that foundation's president, David Hamburg, who has served as one of the INN's advisors.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Africa, New York, Europe, Asia, and Georgia
6417. Report of The Commission on Television Policy:Volume 3, Number 1
- Publication Date:
- 11-1991
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- The first meeting of the Commission on Television Policy culminated a project that began with basic research on the impact of television on the electoral process in many countries. From this research, a Working Group developed a document presenting a wide range of options and trade-offs in broadcast practice and rules worldwide. With this reference document, Commissioners from the United States and the independent states from the territory of the former Soviet Union began their discussions at The Carter Center on November 15 and 16, 1991.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia
6418. Realism and Regionalism: American Power and German and Japanese Institutional Strategies During and After the Cold War
- Author:
- Joseph M. Grieco
- Publication Date:
- 04-1990
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Germany's foreign economic policy places enormous weight on formal European institutions. In contrast, Japan has not had an institutionalist orientation in regard to its East Asian neighbors. This paper addresses the question of why Germany and Japan differ so greatly on this issue of regional economi. institutions. It suggests that the differences observed in German and Japanese interests in regard to such arrangements constitute a puzzle if they are examined from the perspective of liberal ideas about the functional bases of international collaboration, or from the viewpoint of realist propositions about hegemony and cooperation and about the impact of polarity on state preferences. The paper also puts forward a realist-inspired analysis (focusing on American power in the post-Cold War era as well as American national strategy in the early years of that conflict) that might help account for the strong German bias in favor of regional economic institutions and the equally pronounced Japanese aversion to date for such arrangements.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Cold War, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, America, Europe, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Germany