Political Geography: Africa - CIAO Search Results

251. Addressing the impacts of climate change in Africa: New urgency for international action

Author:: Maija Salonen and Antto Vihma
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The drought in the Horn of Africa in 2020–2023 and the floods in Libya in September 2023 are recent examples of climate change-induced disasters that were exacerbated by a lack of adaptive capacity. In the Horn of Africa, up to 2.7 million people were displaced by extreme weather events, and the catastrophic floods in Derna, Libya, killed approximately 11,000 people. In addition to the direct impacts, there is a need to understand the cascading impacts of climate change, which are likely to increasingly affect societal security. At present, the risks are growing faster than societal preparedness. The EU should raise political awareness of climate disasters and their cascading impacts. The ground needs to be prepared for decisive and ambitious climate change mitigation, and developed countries should offer continuous support for adaptation and capacity building.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, European Union, and Climate Governance
Political Geography:: Africa

252. Unpacking Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023)

Author:: Eugene Chen
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The approval of a framework for the financing of African Union (AU) peace support operations (PSOs) by the United Nations (UN) Security Council on December 21, 2023, with the adoption of resolution 2719, represents significant progress in the development of the UN-AU partnership in peace and security as well as a commitment from the Security Council to support the adequate, predictable, and sustainable financing of AU-led PSOs. At the same time, the achievements of the negotiators in reaching this outcome should not obscure the additional work that lies ahead to interpret, implement, and build on the resolution.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, UN Security Council, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

253. Who Will Cities Be For? Inequality, Housing, and the Future of African Urbanization

Author:: Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: As urban areas absorb most of the population growth in the upcoming decades, urbanization presents unique opportunities to transform a society’s economic, social, and political landscape. How cities perform in these dimensions will determine whether societies can become more peaceful, just, and inclusive, and be effectively prepared to respond to future crises. In an urban age shaped by inequalities, policies on housing can either be a catalyzer of equitable and sustainable development or contribute to a vicious cycle of exclusion that hinders governments’ ability to address today’s global challenges. Approaching the issue of housing from a purely technical lens overlooks its political nature, wherein the tension between ensuring residents’ right to housing and promoting real estate financialization for economic gain encapsulates broader questions such as who belongs in a city, or a society’s vision of its own future. Housing is therefore not just a technical or financial issue, but also one of governance. Two-thirds of African cities that will exist in 2050 have yet to be built. Making space to house these new urban residents by building new homes presents an opportunity to do it with a people-centered approach. Effective housing governance requires dismantling past structures that perpetuate exclusionary practices; challenging simplistic narratives of urban glory that end up promoting the financialization of housing; and building coalitions that work for a renewed social contract through access to housing.
Topic:: Urbanization, Inequality, Cities, and Housing
Political Geography:: Africa

254. Continuity and Change: Extremist-used Arms in Mali

Author:: Holger Anders
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Mali has faced more than a decade of armed violence perpetrated by extremists, resulting in thousands of victims among national and international armed forces, UN peacekeepers, and civilians. Continuity and Change: Extremist-used Arms in Mali—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—investigates the arms, ammunition, explosives, and other materiel used in extremist attacks in Mali from 2015 to 2022, and the sources and pathways through which they were obtained.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Violent Extremism, Weapons, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, and Sahel

255. Climate Adaptation Finance: The Gap Between Needs and Resources Continues to Grow

Author:: Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:: Our recent research on the state and trends of climate adaptation finance needs, gaps, and trends globally and in Africa provides new insights that call for greater urgency in adaptation action and financing. The global adaptation funding gap continues to widen because the understanding of needs shows much higher levels of investment required, and the rate of increase of adaptation financing is insufficient. In this policy brief, we review global climate finance trends, the growing funding gap in climate adaptation finance globally and in Africa, financial instruments used for climate adaptation, and challenges and recommendations to improve the tracking of climate adaptation finance.
Topic:: Climate Change, Climate Finance, International Development, Funding, and Adaptation
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

256. Reconsidering the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict and Security Concerns in Africa

Author:: Ndifon Neji, Immaculata Obaji-Akpet, Michael Otu, Joseph Ebegbulem, Samuel Edet, Ayuk Awunghe, and Nwosu Stanley
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a conflict that has transformed international relations through drastic impacts on policymaking, energy politics, and alliances. Such impacts have produced severe multi-dimensional consequences for African countries that have yet to be sufficiently interrogated in the literature. In response to this gap, this paper examined the security implications of the conflict for African countries to offer a comprehensive analysis that considers the intersection of the conflict with contemporary economic, human, social, and political issues confronting Africa. In discourse using a qualitative approach and rooted in a theoretical perspective drawn from the Copenhagen School, the paper underlined the security implications as evident in the areas of food security and governance, buttressing that the proxy conflicts and power struggles associated with this war have exacerbated existing challenges related to food availability and interfered with the consolidation of democracy in Africa. The paper concluded that the war’s multi-dimensional impact potentially compounds political instability vectors. It generates dynamics capable of eroding social cohesion and fomenting social unrest in Africa, meriting its designation as an issue of great concern to African policymakers.
Topic:: Security, Human Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Social Unrest
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, and Ukraine

257. The End of Uganda’s Refugee Model, or Just a ‘Transition’?

Author:: Kristof Titeca and Roos Derrix
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Uganda is lauded world-wide as a model for refugee-hosting: It hosts nearly 1.7 million refugees, the highest in Africa, taking in refugees from its neighbouring countries. It also offers them free access to a plot of land, as well as public services. This refugee model is however under severe pressure, due to reduced donor funding. This is largely for political and ideological reasons: donor are increasingly unwilling to finance a protracted crisis such as a Ugandan one; a process which was further accelerated by the outbreak of major humanitarian crises such as Ukraine and Gaza. In this context, funding for the Ugandan refugee crisis is shifting from humanitarian to development funding, but for now without any major donor willing to foot this bill. This situation shows a major friction in the geopolitical status(es) of the country: on the one hand, it is a key-ally for the West as a ‘regional host country’, in which refugees can be hosted in their home regions, and are prevented from migrating to the West. On the other hand, Uganda is experiencing rapid democratic backsliding, manifested by measures such as the brutal anti-gay law or skyrocketing corruption, making continued engagement difficult – including for the much-lauded refugee model.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Crisis Management, and Donors
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

258. What’s Brewing in Benin? Security Collaboration in the Gulf of Guinea

Author:: Nina Wilén
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The Gulf of Guinea has drawn attention from Western states in recent years due both to increasing spillover of violent extremism from the Sahel and because of Sahelian military juntas’ shift of security partners from Western countries to Russian actors. Indeed, as three Sahelian states experienced five coups during the past years and gradually ousted their former security partners, starting with France, followed by the UN (in Mali) and the EU and the US (in Niger), the Gulf of Guinea countries’ relative stability and geopolitical positions have attracted new attention from external actors. Benin, neighboring both Burkina Faso and Niger, saw attacks by jihadist groups crossing the borders in the North of the country already in 2019. Although expanding relatively slowly, between 2021 and 2024, the number of attacks grew, forcing the government to invest more resources in counter terrorism efforts and reflect on more immediate ways to counter the expansion. Out of the Gulf of Guinea countries, Benin has so far been the hardest hit, and recorded a doubling in the number of recorded fatalities (to 173 deaths) over the past year. A figure which remains small in comparison to neighboring Sahel states, but which still indicates an increase. In spite of these attacks and the adoption in 2019 of a new electoral code limiting political opposition parties, Benin has remained relatively democratic and stable. Such stability has attracted old and new security partners to increase collaboration, both to counter terrorism and because of the expulsion from the Sahel countries. The US, France and Belgium have all intensified security collaboration with Benin over the past few years, while the EU has launched a new, regional CSDP initiative in the Gulf of Guinea. African states have also showed interest for Benin, with Rwanda offering to send troops bilaterally for counter terrorism purposes, similar to its operations in Mozambique. This policy brief aims to explore Benin’s security situation and international partnerships in the security domain, while identifying current and future challenges to such collaborations. The conclusion argues that Western and multilateral actors should maintain discrete collaboration but be cautious not to overburden Benin with their presence as absorption of new capabilities and capacities take time, and as a too heavy presence of Western security actors can become a burden rather than an advantage for the government. External actors should also continue to support recent efforts by the authorities to open up the political landscape to maintain its long-standing democratic tradition.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Sahel, Benin, and Central Africa

259. The Politics behind the EU-Rwanda Deal(s) and its Consequences

Author:: Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: On the 14th of October, the news emerged that the EU is in the final stages of a discussion to award €20 million to the Rwandan army for its operations in Mozambique – where it is fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Gabo Delgado province. It would be the second time in two years that the EU awards this amount under the European Peace Facility (EPF): it also did so in December 2022. At that time, the decision was met with anger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it was already documented by the UN how the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) were supporting the M23 rebellion in Eastern DRC. In the meantime, this support has become clearer, with the last report from the UN Group of Experts from June 2024 extensively documenting the RDF operations with M23 in Eastern DRC. The news of potentially another €20 million is therefore met with anger in Congolese politics and society, primarily directed at the EU. It is a question which puzzles many: why does the EU want to award €20 million to the Rwandan army, in the midst of its violations of international law in Eastern DRC? This piece will unpack this question and reflect on the consequences for the regional dynamics and the EU.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Law, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Rwanda

260. Uganda’s Chess Game in Eastern DRC: With or Without M23?

Author:: Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Uganda has various economic, political and security interests in Eastern DRC. The latter is for example a vital export market for Ugandan products, and an important source of gold, Uganda’s most important export product. In this situation, a careful tactical game is played, in which Kampala seeks to protect these interests in Eastern DRC – for example from Kigali. This does not only involve a clear engagement with Kinshasa, but to a lesser extent also with M23. This is particularly the case because M23 is expanding (and keeping) its territory; creating an incentive for regional actors to engage with them.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

261. The Politics of Food and the Myth of the Self-Reliant Refugee in Uganda

Author:: Nina Soudan
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Changing geopolitical dynamics and a widespread ‘donor reset’ have resulted in reduced refugee assistance funding, compelling World Food Programme to make significant cuts to food assistance. This reduction has coincided with a strategic and theoretical shift towards refugee self-reliance in northern Uganda. While this responsibilisation of refugees has been globally praised as progressive and beneficial, refugees’ settlement experiences have questioned the sustainability of this approach, for whom it works, and under what conditions. This brief argues that WFP’s premature reduction of assistance, driven by the promotion of self-reliance, ultimately pushes refugees into greater hardship, while simultaneously highlighting the flaws in Uganda’s refugee model.
Topic:: Food Security, Geopolitics, Refugees, Donors, and World Food Program (WFP)
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

262. Towards a Comprehensive Mining Strategy for the DRC?

Author:: Erik Kennes
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Former Minister of Mining Willy Kitobo summarizes in a recent book what he considers to be the main problems of the DRC mining sector. He rightly underlines the largely insufficient geological data about the DRC’s mining resources, problems related to the correct implementation of the 2018 mining code, challenges of industrial and artisanal exploitation, and finally the huge environmental problems caused by mining practices in the DRC. While these issues are obviously important, they overlook the national and international political and economic context that frame the choices available to a government in this matter. A narrowing of political to technical problems characterizes the nature of official public debate about the mining sector in the DRC. The strategic choices for the mining sector made by and for the country, on a short, medium and long term, if any, are almost never debated, not only to hide the decisions taken from the public eye, but probably also because the necessary analysis has not been undertaken. Expertise in the academic community for the major part remains technical. Civil society very partially makes up for this gap, but even then, their activity is almost always issue-based and tied to funding for a particular project. Still, civil society for natural resources has developed over the years an impressive level of competence in issues of mining governance. Unfortunately, their expertise is not valued and used beyond the relatively short timeframes they must work in.
Topic:: Civil Society, Natural Resources, Mining, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

263. Rethinking Africa Command

Author:: Mike Sweeney
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: As debate grows over U.S. policy towards Africa, consideration should be given to altering the continent’s status under the Department of Defense’s Unified Command Plan (UCP). Eliminating Africa Command (AFRICOM) under the UCP would both signify a policy shift away from a counterterrorism focus and ease the process of implementing that change within the policymaking bureaucracy. Establishing a three-star subcommand, nested under European Command (EUCOM), would still allow the United States to use force in Africa, when necessary, but would reduce the prominence of military power in U.S. policy toward the continent. AFRICOM and EUCOM essentially share much of their force structure; this unique relationship would facilitate the transition to the proposed three-star subcommand. Altering the U.S. military footprint in Africa should also be considered in the context of any changes to policy and command arrangements. Making specific recommendations at this time is complicated by the opaqueness of the current footprint.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Counter-terrorism, Africa Command (AFRICOM), and European Command (EUCOM)
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, and United States of America

264. Uganda’s Oil Refinery: Gauging the Government’s Stake

Author:: Paul Bagabo and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Uganda’s planned oil refinery will have several benefits for the country, including for its security of fuel supply and balance of payments. The refinery could be reasonably profitable, generating an internal rate of return of 13 percent in a baseline scenario. The government is planning to take a 40 percent stake but may ultimately pay a higher price for this equity than it expects. Even if it borrows to cover its upfront contribution to costs, it will need to divert around $330 million in present value terms from the national budget for loan repayments in the 2030s. This price will increase if downside risks, such as cost overruns or lower global oil prices, materialize. The government can take several steps to increase interest from other investors, including by reducing the risk of cost overruns, ensuring deregulated product prices continue, and providing less risky forms of state support such as tax incentives. These should reduce the need for the government to take a large stake.
Topic:: Oil, Regulation, and Investment
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

265. Guidebook on Nigeria’s Energy Transition

Author:: Tengi George-Ikoli and Nafi Chinery
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: This guidebook serves as a comprehensive reference tool for the Nigerian government, as well as an accountability tool that enables Nigerian civil society actors to track the government’s implementation of its commitments to the energy transition. Nigerian government has designed to transition from fossil fuels—oil, gas and coal—to renewable energy technologies, including institutional, policy, legal and fiscal frameworks. It is informed by engagements with state and non-state actors including representatives of the government, the private sector, communities, youth and women’s groups, and by their views of the strengths and weaknesses of Nigeria’s energy transition plans. Accounting for Nigeria’s unique context and peculiarities as a fossil-fuel-dependent nation, the guidebook seeks to provide greater clarity on ways to navigate the energy transition for the Nigerian government, civil society, the media, the country’s citizens and the international community. It also seeks to mitigate transition led shocks and strengthen the overall transition process in Nigeria. The guidebook can enhance stakeholder knowledge of Nigeria’s energy transition process and government action to accelerate the transition. This should encourage the adoption of a comprehensive plan aligned with the needs and realities of most Nigerians. The insights provided in the guidebook may also inspire and influence regional conversations across the African continent, creating a collective demand for a people-centered and just energy transition in multiple countries.”
Topic:: Climate Change, Oil, Gas, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

266. Assessing the Fiscal Regime in Ghana’s Lithium Agreement

Author:: Thomas Scurfield and Denis Gyeyir
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: NRGI modeling indicates that the Ghanaian government has negotiated a government take for the country’s first lithium mine that is higher than Ghana’s legislated fiscal regime and the regimes of many other current and imminent lithium hard rock producers, such as Australia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe. Modeling suggests an average effective tax rate (government revenues as a share of mine profits) of 58 percent (excluding paid state equity). Seventy percent of these government revenues depend on the profits that mine leaseholder Barari DV Ghana reports. To limit the risk of revenue shortfalls, the agreement should define the process for pricing the lithium, limit the deductibility of interest from taxable income, ensure state equity is non-dilutable and establish rules in the shareholders’ agreement about dividend payments. Given that modeling indicates an after-tax internal rate of return for investors in the Ewoyaa mine of around 102 percent (after debt financing), the government may be able to negotiate an even higher take in future deals for similarly profitable mines. A variable rate royalty could help achieve this higher take. To increase the prospects for a lithium refinery in Ghana—the government’s other key objective—the government should ensure Barari conducts a rigorous feasibility study, publish it and then hold a multistakeholder consultation to agree on subsequent actions.
Topic:: Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Lithium, Revenue Management, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

267. Strengthening Methane Emissions Reduction in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Sector

Author:: Ahmad Abdulsamad and Tengi George-Ikoli
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Nigeria, with the world’s ninth-largest gas reserves, is a major methane emitter, accounting for 16 percent of sub-Saharan African methane emissions from 2010 to 2020. As the Federal Government aims to expand domestic gas use and exports, immediate action is needed to prevent increasing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Unchecked oil and gas sector methane emissions threaten to exacerbate the climate change crisis, harm community health and safety, and undermine Nigeria’s capacity to trade in the global market and leverage the proceeds to sustain its economy. Nigeria needs a robust methane emissions framework to address technical and regulatory gaps across the oil and gas value chain. Frameworks should deliver tailored monitoring reporting and verification (MRV) systems that combine satellite and leak detection and repair (LDAR)technologies, create synergy among stakeholders, and incentivize methane emissions reduction. Oil and gas companies, including Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL), must prioritize investments in methane emissions reduction technologies, reflect global environmental commitments in local operations, and participate in independent data disclosure initiatives, such as the new Extractive Industries Transparency Initiatives (EITI) requirements for greenhouse gas emissions and the Nigeria EITI (NEITI) audit process. Civil society organizations should raise awareness, demand robust methane emissions frameworks and leverage tools such as the EITI standards to monitor company and government compliance with national and global commitments.
Topic:: Climate Change, Fossil Fuels, Methane, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

268. Senegal’s Gas-to-Power Ambitions: Securing Scale and Sustainability

Author:: Papa Daouda Diene, Thomas Scurfield, Aaron Sayne, and Jessica Obeid
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Senegal will benefit from generating electricity from some of its gas, but authorities should carefully consider the scale of the country’s “gas-to-power” ambitions and how they relate to its renewable energy plans. This is a pivotal moment for achieving the government’s energy and sustainable development objectives. Recent plans to develop over 3 gigawatts (GW) of gas-to-power capacity by 2050 may face obstacles. Senegal may not be able to extract enough gas to feed the power plants; it may also struggle to raise sufficient funds (at least USD 2.2 billion) to build the necessary infrastructure. A more balanced energy mix, with a stronger emphasis on renewables alongside gas, offers Senegal a more secure pathway, but necessitates a cohesive long-term strategy and international support. Senegal’s participation in a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) has led to increased medium-term renewable power generation goals—possibly to around 1 GW by 2030. To reach them, Senegal’s development partners must deliver the promised financial and technical support. If Senegal realizes only those plans that are published, gas will comprise 75 percent of installed capacity in the long term. The absence of a long-term plan for renewables could lock the country into this large role for gas, inhibiting the intended catalytic effect of the JETP and preventing the government from fully leveraging the country’s solar and wind potential. A more transparent and inclusive approach will help Senegal’s government to refine and implement its energy plans, helping to manage public expectations, foster public trust and increase credibility with investors.
Topic:: Gas, Fossil Fuels, Sustainability, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

269. Reducing Methane Emissions in Senegal’s Hydrocarbons Sector: A Call for Proactive and Transparent Action

Author:: Papa Daouda Diene and Aida Diop
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Senegalese authorities, and oil and gas companies must urgently take preventive measures to mitigate future methane emissions in Senegal’s oil and gas industry. With planned extraction expansions, these emissions could impact climate, public health, the environment and more directly, competitiveness of projects. Senegal currently emits low levels of methane, and there is political will to reduce methane emissions. However, the government should clearly spell out the country’s ambitions in national strategic documents such as the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the Energy Sector Development Policy Letter (LPDSE), and the upcoming long-term low-emission development strategy. Greater transparency and disclosure of disaggregated data are needed to boost the confidence of local stakeholders and improve the evaluation of emission reduction measures. The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), with its multi-stakeholder structure and new 2023 standard, can help the government and compagnies to improve transparency in methane emissions reporting. As officials are drafting the implementing decree for the new environmental code, the government should reinforce regulations with transparency and accountability obligations, such as requiring companies to share their methodologies to improve data accuracy for public decision-makers. The government should also clarify what constitutes “emergency situations”, such as authorized flaring. Senegal must advance its MRV (measuring, reporting, and verification) system with independent audits and standardized estimation methods for reliable data. While MRV is crucial long-term, a practical short-term system is needed to track progress without stifling action. Additionally, the government should enhance its teams' technical skills to efficiently reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. PETROSEN should proactively manage methane emissions in order to strengthen its global position and meet growing expectations in terms of environmental performance. In the short-term, it should sign the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter, demonstrating a stronger commitment to methane emissions. Civil society actors and journalists should be better informed and involved in the management of methane emissions. Their active participation can enhance transparency, make companies more accountable, and raise public awareness of the environmental and health impacts of methane emissions.
Topic:: Transparency, Methane, Carbon Emissions, and Hydrocarbons
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

270. Tax Avoidance, Tax Evasion and Trade Misinvoicing: Risks to Senegal’s Mining Sector

Author:: William Davis
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Tax evasion, trade misinvoicing and multinational companies’ efforts to avoid tax are important risks in the extractive sector, especially in developing countries, including Senegal. Senegal’s extractive governance arrangements are strong in many areas, including in preventing multinational tax avoidance. However, there is cause for concern in two areas: misinvoicing of international trade (imports and exports), and cost inflation by subcontractors in the extractive industries. Quantitative estimates of trade misinvoicing suggest the former is a significant problem for Senegal (including for its mining sector), which could lead to the loss of 1–3 percent of the country’s tax revenues. Authorities in Senegal should address such risks, especially before the country begins large-scale oil and gas production. Unless they do so, revenues from the country’s hydrocarbon resources will be at risk. Measures that Senegal can take include strengthening the tax authorities—especially customs and auditing accounts of extractive industry suppliers.
Topic:: Corruption, Government, Gas, Mining, Minerals, Tax Evasion, and Public Finance
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

271. How Sudan's Wars of Succession Shape the Current Conflict

Author:: Alden Young
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:: Since fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the government-sponsored paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April of 2023, according to the International Rescue Committee at least 25 million people out of a total population of roughly 48.7 million are in need of basic humanitarian aid. The crisis is escalating with fighting spreading to new parts of the country. Perhaps 37 percent of the country is confronting acute food insecurity.[1] Other statistics are also dire. Nine million people have been displaced within Sudan, while 1.7 million have been forced to flee to other countries. Most of the receiving countries such as Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, and South Sudan are already vulnerable. Initially the conflict was most intense in the capital of Khartoum and in the western provinces of Darfur and Kordofan, but in the last few months it has also spread to regions like Gezira state, the traditional breadbasket of the country.[2] The International Rescue Committee reports that, “Sudan is now the country with the largest number of displaced people and the largest child displacement crisis in the world.”[3] Many migrants who are able to head to the eastern regions of Sudan hope to eventually transit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and from there potentially to other destinations.[4] Ever since the outbreak of the conflict the international community has rallied to negotiate an end to the fighting. The United States and Saudi Arabia have teamed up to negotiate at least sixteen failed ceasefires, while the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, and Egypt have all tried to develop alternative ceasefire and negotiating forums. In January, Mariel Ferragamo and Diana Roy assessed that “negotiation efforts were at a standstill.” [5] Despite the magnitude of the crisis in Sudan a year after fighting broke out, the response from the international community has been paltry. The United Nations has asked for $2.7 billion dollars in order to address the dire humanitarian situation in the country. However, the conflict in Sudan, which is already a regional crisis involving neighbors such as Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Egypt, Libya, and Ethiopia, has largely been overshadowed by the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. To date, the United Nations says that it has received only $424.9 million dollars to address the situation in Sudan.[6] Some of the worst violence during the conflict has taken place in the state of West Darfur. In what many Darfurians experience as reminders of the violence that broke out nearly two decades ago. There have been many credible reports of sexual violence, mass expulsions, and ethnic cleansing. Notably, members of the Masalit ethnic group have been repeatedly targeted as supporters of the SAF by the RSF and their allied militias.[7] The war in Darfur is in many ways a microcosm of the wider conflict, but it also points to the conflict’s direct origins in the long insurgency and counterinsurgency in Darfur.
Topic:: History, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

272. From Conflict to Collaboration: Co-funding Environmental Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia

Author:: Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:: Somalia is experiencing significant impacts of climate change. Its climate-related vulnerabilities are exacerbated by the enduring effects of more than three decades of violent conflict and fragmented governance. As the effects of climate change become more pronounced, their interaction with social, economic and political realities threatens to create challenges that are complex and difficult to address. There is a need for policies and programmes that tackle climate change and conflict in tandem, but gaps persist in knowledge and evidence to inform actions under such policies and programmes. This SIPRI Policy Brief explores how the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Somalia uses a co-funding mechanism for facilitating collaboration between groups in conflict on addressing shared local priorities. In south-central Somalia, IOM has applied the co-funding mechanism to projects that aim to address local climate-related vulnerabilities, build relationships between communities in conflict and strengthen the role of district councils. This policy brief finds that elements of this approach to project design can support environmental peacebuilding in contexts exposed to climate change and affected by conflict and offers recommendations for organizations and other donors with relevant mandates.
Topic:: Environment, Conflict, Peacebuilding, and International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

273. Material world: How Europe can compete with China in the race for Africa’s critical minerals

Author:: Sarah Logan
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: In the last two decades, China has come to dominate global supply chains for critical raw materials and the green energy and other technologies they enable. This increases competition and economic risks for Europe. In an effort to build CRM supply chains insulated from China, the EU has signed strategic partnerships with several politically friendly countries around the world, including in Africa. However, the EU will only realise its de-risking ambitions if the European private sector invests in CRM supply chains in partner countries in Africa and elsewhere. Yet the incentives for European companies to enter mining and processing operations in these markets are too weak. The example of Namibia shows that the EU’s strategic partnership with the country has borne little fruit – and may even be benefitting Chinese firms at European expense. To address this, the EU must enhance support to European companies to invest in securing access to critical raw materials. This should include new financial incentives and measures to protect against China manipulating prices on international markets.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Strategic Competition, Supply Chains, Strategic Partnerships, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, Asia, and Namibia

274. Greening the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement

Author:: Lionel Fontagné, Stephen Karingi, Simon Mevel, Cristina Mitaritonna, and Yu Zheng
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement aims to create a single market for goods and services, increase intra-Africa trade and promote sustainable socioeconomic development in Africa. African countries need to balance efforts to address these goals with the urgency of climate change. As of the 27th session of the Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2022, most African countries had submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to mitigate the impact of climate change. Establishing a carbon market is now on the policy agenda. This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model with different sources of energy (including renewable energy) and an in-depth presentation of greenhouse gas emissions to assess the economic and environmental impacts of implementing the AfCFTA Agreement and adopting various climate policies in Africa, including those NDCs and the International Monetary Fund’s proposal of carbon price floors. It shows that implementing the agreement and achieving Africa’s climate objectives are compatible. Continental coordination of emissions reduction among African countries proves most efficient for climate action.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Free Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Africa

275. Beijing’s Soft Power Push with African Nations

Author:: Arran Hope
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: China Brief
Institution:: The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:: The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has successfully used its hosting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation to burnish its soft power and its credentials to be seen as the leader of the Global South. Close political alignment on core issues, including African states affirming support for the PRC’s positions on Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and unification with Taiwan are indicative of the PRC’s diplomatic gains. Politics was central to the event, with the promotion of exchanges and cooperation announced between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and African political parties, between the PRC’s Supreme People’s Court and the Court of Justice of the African Union, and between the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and regional organizations, alongside numerous training programs in various domains. Africa joined a “community of common destiny,” which entails a rejection of the Western approach to modernization. The West in general and the United States explicitly were heavily criticized throughout the forum.The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has successfully used its hosting of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation to burnish its soft power and its credentials to be seen as the leader of the Global South. Close political alignment on core issues, including African states affirming support for the PRC’s positions on Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet, and unification with Taiwan are indicative of the PRC’s diplomatic gains. Politics was central to the event, with the promotion of exchanges and cooperation announced between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and African political parties, between the PRC’s Supreme People’s Court and the Court of Justice of the African Union, and between the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and regional organizations, alongside numerous training programs in various domains. Africa joined a “community of common destiny,” which entails a rejection of the Western approach to modernization. The West in general and the United States explicitly were heavily criticized throughout the forum.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Global South, Soft Power, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

276. Pivotal Powers 2024: Innovative Engagement Strategies for Global Governance, Security, and Artificial Intelligence

Author:: Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Sharinee Jagtiani, Kristina Kausch, Garima Mohan, Martin Quencez, Rachel Tausendfreund, and Gesine Weber
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:: States outside the transatlantic alliance have gained leverage in international affairs in recent years and, with that, the potential to significantly reshape the global order. Engagement with these "pivotal powers", which include Brazil, Indonesia, India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Türkiye, is of paramount importance for Europe and the United States. "Pivotal Powers 2024: Innovative Engagement Strategies for Global Governance, Security, and Artificial Intelligence" offers tactics for enhancing Western cooperation on global challenges with these countries. This report builds on GMF reports from 2012 and 2023.
Topic:: Security, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

277. Is the G7 still relevant?

Author:: Raffaele Trombetta
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: LSE IDEAS
Abstract:: In the first of our new Expert Analysis series, former Italian Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Raffaele Trombetta, draws on his career experience to answer the question of whether the G7 is still relevant in today’s international order. Detailing a narrative of the G7’s history, confronting its challenges, and addressing its common criticisms, this paper deals with the alternatives (G20 and BRICS), as well as where the G7’s interests should lie in future relations with China and the African nations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, G20, G7, BRICS, and International Order
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Europe, and Asia

278. A New Face, But an Old Tactic: History Offers Clues on Stopping Russia’s African Advance

Author:: Herman J. Cohen
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: The conflict in Gaza has taken center stage in global affairs. But while the eyes of the world are drawn to the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been working in the background to expand Russia’s influence in Africa. His tactics are drawn from the Soviet Union’s Cold War playbook. He offers military support, now via the mercenary Wagner Group, to unstable regimes across the continent, helping them retain power in exchange for diplomatic allegiance and natural resources. If the US does not meet this issue head-on, the consequences for African nations and the international community could be dire. US policymakers should look at the history of the Soviet Union’s diplomacy on the African continent– a period I witnessed personally as a diplomat on the ground– for clues on how to effectively respond to and combat this growing issue.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, History, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Africa and Russia

279. China in Africa: The Nuanced Reality of Belt and Road

Author:: Hank Cohen
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: China’s growing presence in Africa has been the subject of significant criticism. The popular understanding in the US of China’s role on the continent has been that the People’s Republic, via the Belt and Road Initiative, has offered African countries a raw deal: shoddy infrastructure projects in exchange for loans they know their partners cannot repay. The approach is commonly described as debt-trap diplomacy, garnering unfavorable comparisons to organized crime behavior. But the reality of China’s presence in Africa is more nuanced.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Infrastructure, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Asia

280. Representation is Work

Author:: Charles A. Ray
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: At a recent event to launch Diplomatic Tradecraft, a book that discusses the day-to-day aspects of diplomacy, a colleague took me to task for saying that “diplomatic receptions are for work, not for fun” to illustrate that the public doesn’t understand what diplomats really do. My colleague said that he “looked forward to these events for the networking opportunities they gave him.” I didn’t make a point of it at the time, but he and I said essentially the same thing, just from different perspectives. To be perfectly transparent, I probably could have stated my position with much more clarity. I am one of those people who does not enjoy attending crowded functions and listening to long, boring speeches on the off chance that something of importance might inadvertently (or deliberately) be said, while at the same time making nice, often with people who would not be on my A-list for socializing. My long-time colleague, on the other hand, is a much more gregarious and outgoing type.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Memoir
Political Geography:: Africa, Cambodia, Sierra Leone, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

281. The Islamic State on the March in Africa

Author:: Aaron Y. Zelin
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Local branches now control territory in Mali, Somalia, and Mozambique, setting the stage for new foreign fighter mobilizations, resource extraction opportunities, and perhaps even external operations against the West. Nearly five years after losing territorial control in its core areas of Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State is once again racking up territorial gains around Africa. In Mali, IS forces seized portions of the rural eastern Menaka region and the Ansongo district in southern Gao last year, while foreign fighters reportedly became more interested in traveling to Wilayat Sahel, the group’s self-styled “Sahel Province.” Elsewhere, IS “provinces” in Somalia and Mozambique have taken over various towns in the Puntland and Cabo Delgado regions over the past two months, further destabilizing the area and in some cases jeopardizing important natural gas projects.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Foreign Fighters, and Natural Gas
Political Geography:: Africa

282. Sudanese Women Trapped Between Conflict and Political Marginalization in Peace Negotiations

Author:: Areej Elhag
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Now more than ever, it is crucial to effectively include women's issues in peace talks and transitional negotiations, ensuring that their representation is proportionate to their realities and contributions to society. In the ongoing war in Sudan, there is an insufficiently narrated tragedy—the plight of women who are paying a hefty price for this war and are simultaneously being kept from the table in the discussion of how this war can end. International Women's Month coincides with a difficult period in Sudan, where women are facing various forms of violence and violations, including rape, sexual assault, kidnapping and the loss of providers. This is all occurring in a context marked by extreme poverty and lack of medical facilities, especially those related to sexual and reproductive health. The war that erupted on April 15, 2023 between the Sudanese army and Rapid Support Forces has led to a humanitarian crisis that UN reports have ranked among the largest globally—stating that nearly 8 million people have been displaced due to the war, 88 percent of whom are women and children. There are more than 4 million women and girls at risk of sexual assaults, and alarming reports have appeared of women being sold in markets in Sudan. The painful irony is that Sudanese women were at the forefront of the Sudanese revolution that overthrew Omar al-Bashir's government on April 11, 2019. Despite their contributions and sacrifices, they found themselves marginalized and excluded from decision-making positions in the subsequent transitional government. The promises of allocating 40 percent of the Sudanese parliament’s seats for women remained unfulfilled. When the actual figures emerged, they reflected a failure to meet Sudanese women's aspirations and acknowledge their vital role in society and the political process.
Topic:: Women, Negotiation, Marginalization, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

283. An Iron Curtain in the Sahel

Author:: Kyle Robertson
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Russia is taking advantage of recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to embed itself in the Sahel. However, its indiscriminate counterterrorism tactics come with a cost for their forces and the regimes it protects. Weak, corrupt governments with limited resources and active insurgencies set the conditions for military Juntas to seize power in Burkina Faso, Mali, and, most recently, Niger. The region’s militaries blamed persistent violence on civilian leaders and foreign forces–particularly France–that they viewed as inept. Additionally, the perceived interference of the United States and the failure of its counterterrorism policy to address local grievances drove recruitment for insurgent groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Sahel. Russian disinformation–which, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, accounts for roughly half of disinformation campaigns in West Africa–compounded these failures by targeting the United States and using themes of anti-imperialism and neocolonialism to inflame anti-western sentiment. Once the coups occurred, the United States was required by law to cut off security assistance, ending more than a decade of investment in the Sahel’s security infrastructure and giving Russia an opening in the region.
Topic:: Corruption, Insurgency, Islamic State, and Coup
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

284. The Sudan's Incorporation into the Capitalist World-Economy through Modern Cultivation and Trade of Cotton

Author:: Abdullah Muhsin Yıldız
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Before the 19th century, the Sudan had a distinctive social system in which decentralized kingdoms held the political power. The article assumes that this intersocietal system entered a process of incorporation into the capitalist world-economy in the 19th century. Early modernization policies pursued in the Sudan during the Turco-Egyptian administration between 1821-1885 period, known as the Turkiyya. This rule shifted to the Anglo-Egyptian administration in 1899, after British forces defeating the short-lived Mahdist rule. Upon establishment of the new condominium government, the Sudan became a peripheral supplier of the expanding world economy. Throughout the peripheralization, the British gained control of raw materials such as gum arabic and cotton from the Nile valley, which were then transported to factories located in the mainland England. This article investigates economic incorporation process of the Sudan, specifically focusing on the Gezira Scheme, established with a colonial mentality, and mainly based on cotton production. The effect of this process was evident during the 1930s, when the country had been seriously impacted by the global economic crisis of 1929.
Topic:: Hegemony, Capitalism, Economy, Colonialism, Trade, and Cotton
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

285. Turkey’s Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Ethiopia: An Insight into Challenges from 2012-2023

Author:: Betselot Adisu Ayal, Nani Debele Dubale, and Esayas Bamlack Bishaw
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: The first decade of the 21st century marks a new phase in relations between Ethiopia and Turkey. During this period, relations between the two countries transformed into an unprecedented stage. The aim of this study is to examine the challenges of Ethio-Turkish economic relations from 2012 to 2023, with particular reference to trade and FDI. To attain its objectives, the study employed a qualitative research approach. Essentially, primary data were collected through key informant interviews, observation, and document reviews. Despite the growth in trade and foreign direct investment between the two countries, various challenges hinder the smooth operation of these economic ties. The main results of this study show that issues like changing exchange rates, lacking access to the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP), corruption, inefficient government, high tariffs, infrastructure issues, companies that can't pay their debts, customs procedures, fluctuating exchange rates, and a lack of data were major problems for trade and investment between Ethiopia and Turkey. The findings of the study suggest that there are certain problems that need policy measures for further industrial development through attracting foreign direct investment.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, and Ethiopia

286. A Critical Study of the Role of Zakat in Social Protection in Sudan from 1980 to 2021

Author:: Medani Abbas Medani
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Sudan suffers from a high percentage of its total population, more than 65%, living in poverty. This percentage is affected by poor economic growth, the spread of civil conflicts and the resulting migration and destruction, and loss of livelihoods.1 With such a high incidence of poverty, social protection networks do not cover large segments of the Sudanese population. Since the early 1990s, Sudan has embarked on economic reform programs that include the removal of subsidies on basic, government-subsidized commodities such as bread and fuel. As is well known, the implementation of these policies requires effective social protection networks to minimize the effects of these policies on the poor, which is not an easy task in a low-income country where there are already serious questions about the government’s ability to develop an effective social protection system. In light of limited government resources and a large security and military budget, especially during the period of al-Bashir’s rule from 1989 to 2019, the government’s ability to allocate resources to support social protection programs has been weak. This means that the Zakat Chamber is considered the main provider of social protection interventions in Sudan. It targets poor and vulnerable segments, as Zakat resources represent about 87% of the total interventions of government social protection networks (excluding government support).2 This study starts from the premise that Zakat can be an effective tool in financing and implementing social protection programs, as well as social protection institutions in Sudan, if properly managed. As such, the paper traces the historical development of the Zakat system in Sudan and the impact of the ruling regimes on Zakat’s roles in the social protection system. The study also examines the impact of the Bashir regime (1989-2019) on the Zakat system from the perspective of economic and political empowerment, and the extent of the regime’s impact on Zakat’s ability to strengthen social protection networks in Sudan. The nature of the political system plays a role in determining the frameworks of the Zakat system: the Zakat Chamber law authorizes it to disburse Zakat under the discretionary authority of the ruler as the original authority. In other words, the ruler’s discretion affects the distribution of Zakat resources to projects.3 The study examines the period of Omar al-Bashir’s regime, which lasted from 1989 to 2019. The study then deals with the period following the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood rule in the transitional period from 2019-2021, and proceeds to shed light on the role of the Zakat Chamber after the outbreak of the Sudanese war on 15 April 2023. The study concludes with the positives and challenges facing the role of Zakat in social protection in Sudan. It also provides recommendations aimed at reviewing the program, which, despite its expansion, is accompanied by issues in terms of its use in collecting and providing resources that are not subject to appropriate exchange and institutional controls and as a tool affected by the nature of the ruling political regime and its priorities, which may contradict the goals of Zakat and social protection. The importance of addressing the relationship between Zakat and social protection in Sudan lies in the fact that Zakat is categorized as one of the most important social protection resources. Zakat, for much of the period under study, was a compulsory religious tax, a fact that goes against the principles of Islamic countries in dealing with the Zakat obligation. The link between Zakat and social protection needs a careful approach that separates the roles that Zakat can play in social protection. Zakat is not just a charitable act and can have macroeconomic effects, falling into the trap of being used as an easy tax resource by which governments evade their roles in developing and institutionalizing social protection. This paper attempts, through the experience in Sudan, to contribute to the development of the debate and experience on the roles of Zakat in social protection.
Topic:: Poverty, Social Protection, and Zakat
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

287. Recalibrating Coastal West Africa’s Response to Violent Extremism

Author:: Daniel Eizenga and Amandine Gnanguênon
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Extremist violence in the Sahel is spilling over into coastal West African countries. Governments in coastal West African countries play the leading role in responding to this threat by proactively strengthening ties with local communities in vulnerable regions. Regional security cooperation can bolster national defenses through intelligence sharing, coordinating border patrols, and training focused on community protection. Forging a multitiered strategy—linking support to communities with regional and international bodies—would help contextualize local responses while sustaining regional cooperation to address the complex threat posed by violent extremist groups.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Violent Extremism, Countering Violent Extremism, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Sahel

288. The Regional Security Imperative to Protect the Congo Basin

Author:: Denis Mahonghol
Publication Date:: 11-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The rapid degradation of the Congo Basin rainforests poses a threat to the livelihoods of millions who rely on the forests’ resources and the regulating role the forests play for African rain patterns and carbon sequestration. Weak forest management is empowering transnational organized criminal networks and armed militant groups who are playing an increasingly central role in resource extraction from the Congo Basin. Illicit logging, mining, and wildlife trade in the Congo Basin is enabled by the complicity of senior public officials who profit from their positions overseeing the management of these national resources. Better management and protection of the Congo Basin rainforests will require enhanced forest domain awareness as well as realigning the incentives for local communities, public officials, and international logging interests.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Organized Crime, Regional Security, Logging, and forests
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

289. “Under One Tree”? Exploring Pastoral, National, and International Approaches to Humanitarian Action

Author:: Elizabeth Stites, Merry Fitzpatrick, and Paul Howe
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Although resilience is an inherent component of pastoral systems, it must be adequately supported through effective national and international policies, programs, and approaches. However, to date the evidence provided by pastoralists and organizations working with pastoral populations suggests that international and national humanitarian assistance is rarely provided in ways that are truly helpful for pastoral communities to protect their livelihoods. This synthesis report brings together the findings from the first phase of a three-year research project exploring how humanitarian action — comprising early warning, anticipatory action, and emergency response — can be more attuned to the needs, perspectives, and approaches of pastoral communities in the dryland areas of the Greater Horn and Sudano-Sahel. The main outputs from Phase 1 are three desk studies examining humanitarian action from three perspectives: the views of the pastoralists, national governments, and the international community. This synthesis report reflects upon the cross-cutting learning and key themes and considers the implications for humanitarian action in dryland areas.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Natural Resources, Pastoralism, Resilience, Livelihoods, Safety Net, Gender, Early Warning, and Social Protection
Political Geography:: Africa, Sahel, and Horn of Africa

290. Anticipatory Insurance with African Risk Capacity: A Holistic Benefit-Cost Analysis

Author:: Leah B. Poole, Vaibhav Anand, Alexa Gozdiff Spognardi, Anne Radday, Komal Rathod, and Erin Coughlan de Perez
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: African Risk Capacity, with the support of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, has designed an anticipatory insurance product to support farmers in the drought-prone regions of Malawi and Zambia. The anticipatory approach is innovative because the insurance pays out when forecasts predict a drought, rather than after drought-related losses and damages have occurred. This report explores the potential costs and benefits of the insurance product and proposes a framework for monitoring and evaluating these factors once the product is implemented. Costs and benefits are assessed with an economic model, supported by qualitative data collected from key stakeholders. The results of this research are intended to assist government decision-makers by providing insights into potential challenges and successes associated with the product’s implementation. Additionally, the research may offer a useful framework of considerations for the expansion of this initiative to other countries.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Resilience, Livelihoods, Safety Net, Early Warning, and Livestock
Political Geography:: Africa

291. Reflecting On Post-Electoral Disputes: A Need To Promote Living Together And The Authority Of The State In Cameroon

Author:: Kuba Abouem Perpétue
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The “years of embers” of 1990 marked the return to a multi-party system in Cameroon (Cameroon-tribune 2017), putting an end to the single-party system instituted in 1966, with the symbolic transformation of the Cameroonian Union (CU) into the Cameroonian National Union (CNU). Two major currents triggered this movement. These were upheavals on the international scene and their effects on national politics. In 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall symbolized the end of the Cold War, perceived as the triumph of the West and “the end of history” (Fukuyama, 1992). Against this backdrop, the French President François Mitterand gave a speech at La Baule that marked the beginning of the “third wave of democratization” (Huntington, 1991). On June 20, 1990, at the 16th France/Africa Conference, France decided to make access to Development Aid conditional on the establishment of democracy, in a sort of “Democracy against Aid”. Popular demands and tensions erupted, jeopardizing security and peace. This break with the past, marked by what was seen at the time as an easing of East-West antagonisms and tensions, which had the opposite effect on the African continent. Despite its perverse effects, however, respect for democratic freedoms was reaffirmed by the African Union in 2007 in the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.
Topic:: Democratization, Elections, and State
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

292. Accelerating National Value Chains Through a Better Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement in Cameroon

Author:: Adeline Nembot, Sandrine Viesi Maingeh, and Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Like most African countries, Cameroon, a country endowed with abundant human and natural resources, has for decades been grappling with the challenge of developing and strengthening its national value chains. Value chains refer to the sequence of activities that create value for a product or service, from the raw material to the final consumer. Indeed, Cameroon’s national value chains face numerous difficulties, including poor infrastructure, limited access to finance, lack of diversification, lack of skilled labor and corruption (1). This results to low levels of processing and value addition, leading to low export prices and high import bills. This is particularly the case for the country’s cocoa bean exports, which are processed and sold elsewhere and therefore make only a small contribution to GDP (15%) (2) Fortunately, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, signed by Cameroon in 2020, appears to be a significant opportunity to accelerate its national value chains. Indeed, this agreement aims to promote intra-African trade and economic integration by eliminating tariffs on intra-African trade, facilitating the movement of goods and services, and encouraging investment. From this perspective, this article seeks to explore how Cameroon can position itself to take advantage of the opportunities presented by the implementation of the AfCFTA on its national value chains. In doing so, it will highlight to African leaders and governments, economic operators and national and multinational companies the importance of developing their manufacturing sector and achieving the target of 30% of GDP by 2030. This article presents the trade and economic profile of Cameroon in Section 2, the role of the AfCFTA in promoting Cameroon’s value chains in Section 3, and the conclusion in Section 4.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Free Trade, and Value Chains
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

293. Political Alliances in Francophone Africa: Lessons from the Senegalese Sonko-Faye Model

Author:: Pouomegne Kamdem Prunelle Franchessa
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Over the past ten years, the political landscape of Senegal has undergone a remarkable evolution marked by the unexpected rise of Ousmane Sonko and the emergence of Bassirou Diomaye Faye as key figures on the political scene (1). As these two individuals navigate the complex dynamics of power (2), alliances, and conflicts, questions arise about the future direction of Senegalese governance. Political alliances, as defined by Giovanni Sartori in Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis, refer to the strategic cooperation between members or factions of the same political party or between different political parties, aimed at consolidating power, influencing decisions, and achieving shared objectives (3). The objective of this article is to analyze the dynamics and implications of this political rise, focusing on the partnership between Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye, particularly their ability to mobilize voters, structure an alternative discourse, and influence a political trend. By examining their collaborative efforts and the challenges they have faced, the aim is to shed light on the mechanisms of their success and draw lessons for electoral processes in Francophone African countries. This article uses a qualitative research approach, drawing on a comprehensive review of literature, political analyses, and media reports to examine the trajectories of Sonko and Faye. Through content analysis and thematic synthesis, the article seeks to identify key themes, challenges, and opportunities in their political partnership. Its structure highlights a brief history of Sonko and Faye’s political ascent, followed by an exploration of their partnership and the challenges they have faced. It then presents an analysis of their relationship and its implications for the Senegalese political system. Finally, the article concludes with practical recommendations to strengthen the legitimacy and effectiveness of elections in Senegal and the broader Francophone African region.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

294. The Role of Civil Society During Elections In Cameroon

Author:: Guy Beaudry Jengu Jengu
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: In 2024, 19 African countries are organizing elections (1). More than half of these elections will take place during the last quarter of the year. In French-speaking African countries, more or less violent post-electoral crises (2) are quite common, and similar patterns observed. On one hand, the democratic openings of the 1990s either transformed single-party systems into ruling parties or brought former military personnel to power. On the other hand, the political landscape lacks robust policy platforms and ideological depth (3), and the vibrancy of civil society has rarely persisted past the 2000s. Yet, Cameroon currently has more than 50,000 entities claiming represent civil society (4). It is this civil society that is the focus of this analysis. First, the question of defining African civil society must be addressed, as its conceptualization outside of African democratic contexts and its ubiquitous usage in media make it a somewhat identifiable yet difficult to precisely define phenomenon (5). For the purposes of this work, civil society refers to an “autonomous associative sector, independent from the state” (6). Following Hegel, we distinguish it from political society, recognizing its intermediary position between prominent political actors and families (7). How does civil society deploy itself in Cameroon during the electoral period? The electoral period is divided into three distinct periods: before the election, on the day of the election, and after the election. More than 30 years after the advent of pluralist elections and multipartyism, this work aims to analyze the political, institutional and social logics that inform the practices of civil society during these moments, based on the events of the last presidential election. The objective is to uncover the actual repertoire of action employed by civil society actors during electoral periods in Cameroon, in order to identify ways to promote civic and citizen-oriented behaviors.
Topic:: Civil Society, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

295. Electoral Fraud and the Weakening Of Cameroonian Democracy

Author:: Joseph Thierry Okala Ebode
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The resurgence of democracy in Cameroon, mirroring trends across Francophone sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s, was characterized by electoral system reforms and the introduction of multiparty elections (1). However, the outcomes of these reforms and subsequent elections have often fallen short of expectations. The March 1992 multiparty legislative elections saw opposition parties secure a majority (92 out of 180 seats), yet they were unable to assume power. Since then, despite numerous presidential and local elections, the country has seen neither a transfer of power at the highest levels of government nor the local-level changes citizens have long desired. This aspiration for political alternation continues to be thwarted by a system that consistently reinstates the same leadership. Paradoxically, despite a proliferation of political parties (2), the influence and significance of the opposition continue to wane. This diminishing role of the opposition, coupled with growing democratic disillusionment (3), can be largely attributed to electoral fraud (4). Electoral fraud encompasses any illegal actions aimed at favoring particular candidates or party lists at the expense of others. This raises a critical question: How does electoral fraud, an illegal practice, lead to the disengagement of members of the opposing political landscape, the general public, and particularly the youth, from the political process? To address this, our analysis will focus on two main areas: first, examining fraudulent practices that operate within legal loopholes, and second, investigating overtly illegal fraudulent activities.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Fraud
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

296. Youth Participation in Democratic Processes in Francophone Africa

Author:: Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Youth participation in democratic processes in Francophone Africa varies significantly across countries, influenced by socio-economic factors, political dynamics, and historical contexts (1). Here are some key aspects to consider, many Francophone African countries have histories of authoritarianism or single-party dominance, which can discourage youth engagement in formal political processes. High levels of unemployment and limited economic opportunities can lead young people to prioritize immediate survival over political engagement(2). Limited access to quality education and political information can hinder youth understanding of democratic processes and their ability to engage effectively. The younger population has always been a crucial group for political mobilization during elections in Africa. With the continent experiencing a significant increase in youth population, many of whom are struggling with unemployment and underemployment, winning the support of this demographic has become increasingly vital. Despite their large numbers and the significance of generational identities in the region’s history, there remains a lack of understanding regarding the political engagement of Africa’s youth(3). The media and digital platforms play a critical role in providing information about democratic values and election procedures, fostering safe spaces for young people to participate in the political process, and reducing calls for boycotting elections and using violence to keep young people away from disobedience. This paper examines the reason for youths reluctance to participate in democratic processes in Francophone Africa and the UN/global perspective. The paper ends with the role of Election Management Bodies (EMBs) and policy recommendations.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Democracy, Youth, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Africa

297. Financing Innovations – Cameroonian Startups and the Rise of Alternative Funding

Author:: Adeline Nembot, Yollande Meli Tankeu, and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: In Cameroon, startups have always relied on personal resources and bank financing despite their heavy investment requirements. Yet, rigorous collateral and high interest rate requirements limit access to bank loans. As a result in 2021, only 15% of Cameroonian startups had access to formal funding options, while the majority relied on personal savings or informal funding sources (1), such as Informal Saving Groups and Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (ROSCAs). Moreover, according to the Central African Startup Finance Report 2022, funds raised in 2022 by startups in Cameroon remained stable year to year at 7.3 billion francs CFA ($12 million) (2). In 2023, the Africa platform’s report showing the breakdown by country of funds raised by young African startups revealed that Cameroon attracted fewer investors, raising just $4 million, far behind Côte d’Ivoire ($17 million), Senegal ($44 million), Benin ($71 million), Kenya ($88 million), South Africa ($410 million), and Egypt ($640 million) (3). This restricted access hinders startups’ potential to innovate, create jobs, and contribute to economic growth. In this context, there is a need for exploring alternative financing options, which demands a shift from traditional to emergent financing solutions.
Topic:: Economics, Finance, Innovation, and Startup
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

298. The Impact of Access to credit on Women’s Entrepreneurship

Author:: Vera Kum
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: This article explores how access to credit and financial resources can help women start and grow their businesses. Anchored within the paradigm of women’s entrepreneurship empowerment and social development, we will first examine from the literature some cases of access to credit in women’s entrepreneurship. A brief analysis of the significance of financial accessibility for female entrepreneurship development follows this. Finally, we will suggest some recommendations that can help decision-makers better formulate more inclusive policies to ensure equitability between males and females regarding credit accessibility for women.
Topic:: Economics, Women, Finance, and Entrepreneurship
Political Geography:: Africa

299. A Reflection on Africa’s Democratic Future: Why Governments Need to Invest in Curriculum-Driven Civic Education

Author:: Felix Kumah-Abiwu
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: Three decades into the new wave of democratic rule in Africa after the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s cannot be overlooked. Countries such as Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi, and South Africa, are a few examples of countries that have continued to make progress in consolidating their democracies. At the same time, the continent stands at a crossroads (1) given the recent increase in military coups and the growing popular support for these coups (2) in West Africa, amid other serious security challenges facing other parts of the African continent. While Africa’s challenges are not unique, as with other emerging liberal democracies, the disturbing aspect is when many Africans are losing faith in their democratic system of governance. The popular support (3) for recent military coups (4) in West Africa is one of the manifestations of this worrying trend. This policy paper discusses the “new discourse” on democratic decay in Africa, especially in West Africa. To help address some of Africa’s democratic difficulties, the paper argues that African governments need to take policy steps in investing resources in a curriculum-driven civic education to help sustain Africa’s democratic future. To properly situate the analysis into a broader context, the paper provides an overview of Africa’s socio-political landscape.
Topic:: Education, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Curriculum
Political Geography:: Africa

300. Over-Indebtedness in Central Africa: Causes, Consequences, and Reform Strategies

Author:: Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:: 10-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: The CEMAC region is facing a concerning situation of over-indebtedness, exacerbated by external shocks and the volatility of commodity prices. This brief aims to analyze the structural and economic causes of over-indebtedness in CEMAC countries while formulating policy recommendations to improve debt management and enhance economic resilience. Targeted at policymakers, financial institutions, and regional bodies in Central Africa, this work relies on an econometric analysis using a mixed model (Multilevel Random Effects) based on data from 2010 to 2022. Key indicators include external debt and public debt service. The findings reveal a strong dependence on external debt, while fiscal reforms have a limited short-term impact. Structural reforms are essential to reduce debt vulnerabilities. Additionally, regional coordination is recommended to improve debt sustainability through institutional reforms, increased fiscal discipline, and economic diversification. However, this analysis does not account for potential global economic shocks that could affect the region.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Reform, Diversification, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:: Africa and Central Africa

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS