Political Geography: Africa - CIAO Search Results

201. Consolidating peace? The inner struggles of Sudan’s transition agreement

Author:: Andrew E. Yaw Tchie and Mariana Llorens Zabala
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The use of transitional agreements to resolve differences between the state and non-state armed actors across the African continent appears to be on the rise. However, many of these transitional agreements tend to be stagnant and fail to deal with grievances, causes of political unrest and conflict or to provide sustainable paths to democracy. Drawing on the civilian-led Transitional Government of Sudan from 11 April 2019 to 25 October 2021 (the length of the transitional agreement), and an original dataset, this article argues that the policies of the transitional government of Sudan, political rhetoric and the challenges of implementing transitional agreement policies did not align with political realities. This was primarily due to the inability of the Transitional Government of Sudan to dismantle existing power structures under previous regimes. We find that the Transitional Government of Sudan neglected to consider path dependencies of the previous regimes, which led to its being unable to provide the people of Sudan with strategies that could help to circumvent existing structures set up by past regimes. As a result, the efforts of the Transitional Government of Sudan acted as exacerbators of existing inner struggles. The article argues for the need for better technical support and provisions to support incoming transitional governments trying to emerge from autocracy or dictatorship to democracy during transitional periods.
Topic:: Peace, Military, Transitional Government, and Regime Security
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

202. The New Geopolitical Formation in the Wider Horn of Africa: Consequences for Europe

Author:: Jan Pospisil
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: The ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia significantly destabilise the Wider Horn of Africa and impact the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. These conflicts, rooted in fragmented statehood and exacerbated by internal ethnic, regional, and political divisions, threaten regional stability through increased migration and disruptions in the Red Sea. The conflicts are deeply internationalised, involving military engagements from neighbouring countries and attracting global powers due to significant geostrategic stakes. Traditional Western influences are waning. Instead, new actors like China, Russia, and various Gulf States are heavily engaged in the region. For Europe, the instability in the Horn of Africa presents urgent challenges, primarily related to migration, the security of maritime routes, and potential spillover effects in neighbouring regions like Egypt. Addressing these issues requires enhanced political engagement, addressing humanitarian needs, reforming peacekeeping efforts, and strengthening security cooperation. Europe’s response should be robust and coordinated, aiming to mitigate immediate threats and contribute to long-term stability in the region, reflecting the complexity of the intertwined interests and ongoing conflicts.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Political stability, Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

203. Future Danish engagement with Africa: Insights and priorities for Denmark´s new Africa strategy from DIIS’ partners across the continent

Author:: Mary Boatemaa Setrana, Rahma Hassan, Faisal Garba, Mohamed Aden Hassan, Meron Zeleke Ersesso, Adam Moe Fejerskov, Nauja Kleist, and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Remaking political relations with African countries has become a key priority for the Danish government, looking toward a future where Africa becomes of greater (geo)political importance to Denmark and Europe. To achieve this, Denmark is preparing a new plan for its future strategic engagement on the continent. Aiming to situate African countries closer to Denmark’s core foreign affairs, the plan is expected to address questions across the fields of foreign affairs, security, development, and trade, and focus on equal partnerships. The government has indicated a need to build on the mantra of ‘preaching less and listening more’ – as the Danish minister for foreign affairs framed it at a recent visit to Kenya – with political relations based on a ‘pragmatic idealism’ and more genuine forms of cooperation that reflect mutual interests. In this Policy Brief, some of DIIS’ African research partners consider key questions on what it takes to achieve equal partnerships, what a new Danish strategic engagement with Africa should look like, and what it should refrain from.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Engagement, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Denmark

204. Somaliland at the centre of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa

Author:: Jethro Norman
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: On 1 January 2024, a surprise Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was announced between the self-declared breakaway Republic of Somaliland and Ethiopia. The deal allowed landlocked Ethiopia to lease 20 kilometres of Somaliland’s coastal land for naval and commercial purposes. In exchange, Ethiopia would be the first country to recognise Somaliland as an independent nation (later revised by Ethiopia to an ‘in depth assessment’ of recognition). The government of the Federal Republic of Somalia (FGS), which considers Somaliland part of its territory, called the deal a violation of its territorial sovereignty, a position supported by the EU and other international partners. In western Somaliland’s Awdal region, where the coastal land has been promised, there have been widespread protests. The Ethiopia-Somaliland deal has immediately increased tensions throughout the region. The timing of the agreement is significant as it occurred shortly after Somalia agreed to resume talks concerning Somaliland’s disputed constitutional status, putting an abrupt end to the dialogue. Regional blocs are already coalescing between those who support Somalia’s territorial integrity (notably Djibouti, Egypt and Eritrea) and those supporting Ethiopia (including the UAE and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces). The possibility of a future war in the Horn is a real concern. Analysis has so far focused on Ethiopia’s expansionist actions, especially in light of a looming debt crisis and various internal conflicts, and support from the UAE, an influential regional player. However, it is unlikely that this deal would have been possible were Somaliland itself not already in crisis. Although the news of the agreement was met with celebration in the capital, Hargeisa, Somaliland is not approaching this deal from a position of strength. Since 2022, it has lost control of a significant portion of its eastern territory to pro-unionist forces who established their own administration, SSC-Khatumo. Internal unrest has also been brewing since 2022 due to delayed Presidential elections in Somaliland. Although President Muse Bihi Abdi has allowed clan elders to mediate the election-related disputes, the opposition remains skeptical as to whether elections will indeed occur by the end of 2024. The aim of the deal with Ethiopia is to restore the President’s reputation, and by extension Somaliland’s international reputation, contain domestic resistance, and revive its battered economy. Mediating between Somaliland, Somalia and Ethiopia is necessary, but not enough. Addressing the deep-rooted political crisis within Somaliland and clarifying its status in relation to Somalia are essential for finding a long-term solution to regional instability. Resolving the political status of both Somaliland and the newly established SSC-Khatumo should be a top priority in achieving long-term stability in the Horn.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, Diplomacy, International Organization, Migration, Non State Actors, Fragile States, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, and Horn of Africa

205. Vessel protection against piracy in the Gulf of Guinea: a public private hybrid

Author:: Jessica Larsen and Stephanie Schandorf
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Private security companies supplement state efforts to protect merchant vessels from piracy attacks in the Gulf of Guinea, yet operations are poorly regulated. Denmark and other seafaring states should call for harmonised international legislation, standardised conduct and the creation of robust oversight mechanisms.
Topic:: Security, Maritime Commerce, Piracy, and Protection
Political Geography:: Africa, Denmark, and Gulf of Guinea

206. Reimagining peacekeeping in Africa and beyond

Author:: Peter Albrecht, Corine van Emmerik, Kwesi Aning, Nina Wilén, and John Karlsrud
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The ending of the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping mission in Mali in 2023, coupled with preparations for concluding the more than two decades-long mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in late 2024, signal a new trend in international peacekeeping: a move away from extensive, multidimensional missions towards more targeted and stabilisation-focused, often ad hoc, operations. These milestones in peacekeeping point to the need for UN member states, from both the South and North, to respond to the contemporary global landscape and conduct a thorough reassessment of the effectiveness of peacekeeping. The absence of any new, large-scale, multidimensional peacekeeping initiatives since such missions were deployed in South Sudan (2011), Mali (2013) and the Central African Republic (2014) further emphasises the uncertain future of peacekeeping. There is a growing recognition that these operations have failed to meet expectations and achieve their intended objectives of establishing lasting and equitable peace where they deploy. This realisation, together with a crisis of consent from host states, has led to waning confidence in and enthusiasm for such interventions among the international community. Alongside a declining belief in the ‘liberal world order’ primarily advanced by governments and practitioners in Europe and North America, this underscores a deep-seated change in the field of international peacekeeping. On the one hand there is a need to adapt and critically assess almost six decades of peacekeeping, as highlighted in the UN’s New Agenda for Peace, including the political and ideological basis upon which this form of intervention stands. Indeed, peacekeeping has not only attempted to respond to the changing nature of conflict, especially after the Cold War, it has also directly contributed to existing inequalities globally and represented an increasingly violent form of intervention from its traditional point of departure. On the other hand, with UN-led peacekeeping missions (possibly) phasing out, it is crucial to also critically analyze the new forms of intervention that are emerging. Their suitability for the diverse operational challenges encountered must be assessed, especially in Africa where most UN missions have been deployed, often led by the African Union (AU) or through ad hoc coalitions that sometimes operate beyond UN and AU mandates.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Fragile States
Political Geography:: Africa

207. Europe's role in the Sahel

Author:: Christine Nissen
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: A few years ago Africa’s Sahel region sat at the top of the EU’s foreign policy and security agenda. European member states were mobilising significant resources to address the security challenges of the region. This changed overnight on the 24th of February 2022 when Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine and resurrected the spectre of conventional war on the European continent. From that day all Europe’s focus was directed to the Eastern threat, and European presence in the Sahel has since been scaled down. The Russian war in Ukraine is not the only reason why Europe is scaling down ambitions in the Sahel. Indeed, growing anti-Western sentiment amongst Sahelian governments and populations, and increasing resistance to European, and not least French, interference have made it challenging for European countries to stay engaged in the region. The Ukraine War and the European re-focus eastwards is symptomatic of the changing global order, which tells a broader story of European–African relations in crisis. The world is changing – and European governments are struggling to decide how to position themselves within it. In the short term Europe emerges as the primary loser due to its limited readiness to navigate this evolving landscape.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sahel

208. Climate-related losses and damages to social cohesion are overlooked

Author:: Lily Salloum Lindegaard and Francis Jarawura
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Climate change and related impacts – like forced migration and displacement – affect the social cohesion that is crucial for communities to function and thrive. Yet blind spots and misconceptions may misdirect response efforts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Displacement, Social Cohesion, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:: Africa, Ghana, and Niger

209. Diaspora aid is crucial for emergency relief in the Somali regions

Author:: Nauja Kleist, Peter Albrecht, Mohamed Aden Hassan, and Karuti Kanyinga
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Somali diaspora humanitarianism alleviates suffering and saves lives in the Somali regions that are affected by conflict, poverty and natural disasters. Its absence would exacerbate crises and significantly limit the impact of formal assistance.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, Natural Disasters, Diaspora, Fragile States, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

210. Analyzing the repercussions of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger's withdrawal from ECOWAS

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On January 28, 2024, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso declared their immediate withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in response to the stringent economic sanctions levied by the 15-member regional bloc following recent military coups. This move has sparked widespread speculation regarding its impact on the ECOWAS’ function, as well as the security and political landscape in the Sahel and West Africa.
Topic:: Politics, Sanctions, Regional Security, and ECOWAS
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso

211. Is Somalia about to replicate the Afghanistan scenario post-withdrawal of the "ATMIS” forces?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: On February 10, 2024, the Gordon military base in Mogadishu was subjected to a terrorist attack by the jihadist Al-Shabab group. The attack resulted in the deaths of several officers performing training tasks for Somali forces, indicating a recent increase in the intensity of Al-Shabab's terrorist activity. This coincides with the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia’s (ATMIS) announcement that it declared the completion of the second phase of withdrawal of its forces from Mogadishu in early February. The remaining stages, which are expected to be implemented by the end of this year, have been raising concerns about the possibility of a new Afghanistan scenario in the Horn of Africa region.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Al Shabaab, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

212. Western-Centric Moments in Homegrown IR Theories: Dependency, Chinese and African Schools

Author:: Engin Sune
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:: Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:: The modern international system has been shaped by long-standing historical practices of unequal power relations, which have positioned the Western world at the center of the political universe. Due to the centrality of the Global North in the international system, any IR theory that aims to portray a true picture of the “globe” necessarily situates the West at the center of scientific inquiry. Furthermore, the form of universality generated by Western hegemony has been diffused throughout the world over centuries, spreading Western political institutions, economic structures, and ideological norms in an uneven setting. As a result, the social structures of the Global South have developed through an uneven form of relationship and dialectical interaction with the West. Therefore, homegrown IR theories, which uncover local political, philosophical, or cultural motives as sources for theory-making, in fact, concentrate on stratified forms of the universal reality that is diffused through the uneven spread of Western social structures. In this sense, there is a Western-centric moment in any homegrown IR theory. Accordingly, this article develops a scientific realist account of the structure/agent relationship in order to analyze the material grounds of Western-centrism in the field of international politics and to evaluate the role of non-Western actors. Additionally, it critically evaluates distinctive homegrown theories produced on three different continents to reveal the aforementioned Western-centric moments in these theoretical initiatives. Namely, the Dependency School of Latin America, the Chinese School of International Relations, and the African School are respectively scrutinized to disclose the embedded Western-centrism in these theoretical initiatives.
Topic:: International Relations and International Relations Theory
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Global South

213. Expert Voices: Geopolitical Implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Partnership

Author:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Expert Voices: Geopolitical Implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland Partnership
Topic:: Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Somaliland

214. Fragile States and Aid Allocation for Sub-Saharan African Countries: An Empirical Research

Author:: Zeynep Arıöz and Hacer Soykan Adaoğlu
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: State fragility has received increasing attention in recent decades as a result of the nexus between development and international stability. This study investigates the empirical drivers of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa from 2007 to 2019. We shed light on the explanatory variables of government effectiveness, political stability, per-capita GDP, grow GDP%, International Monetary Fund loans, and official development assistance. Using panel data analysis and a 39-country sample, our study finds that government efficiency and political stability, in contrast to foreign aid, has a significant effect on reducing fragility in sub-Saharan Africa. In light of these findings, the article proposes delivering foreign aid in ways that strengthen state capacity.
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Econometrics, International Institutions, and Fragility
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

215. The Mattei Plan for Africa: A Turning Point for Italy’s Development Cooperation Policy?

Author:: Daniele Fattibene
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: At the end of January 2024, Italy hosted an Africa summit during which Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni outlined the vision and first projects of the so-called “Mattei Plan”, an ambitious project announced officially at the end of 2023[1] that aims to shape Italy’s strategy for Africa in the years to come.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Italy

216. The Italy-Africa Summit 2024 and the Mattei Plan: Towards Cooperation between Equals?

Author:: Filippo Simonelli, Maria Luisa Fantappiè, and Leo Goretti
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: Italy inaugurated its year of G7 presidency with the Italy-Africa summit on 28-29 January in Rome, an event representative of the current government’s ambitions.[1] The long-awaited meeting was the first test for the strategy of “cooperation as equals” with African states that Giorgia Meloni has repeatedly proposed as central to her government's foreign policy. It was also the first occasion to test the real scope of the so-called Mattei Plan for Africa, the project with which the Italian government wants to substantiate this strategy but whose official strategic outline has yet to be announced.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Italy

217. From Paper to Practice: Enhancing Integrated Development Plans to Improve Governance

Author:: Stuart Morrison and Pranish Desai
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation (PME) systems play an important role in ensuring that South Africa’s municipalities are able to effectively fulfil their core mandate of service delivery. One central component of this system is the Integrated Development Plan (IDP), a strategic framework used for several functions, including guiding key priorities and providing a roadmap for effectively delivering public services. However, even though most municipalities consistently submit IDPs, the quality of service delivery, especially amongst municipalities that have Water Services Authority responsibilities, is uneven. This raises the questions around which factors are more influential in determining effective service provision, and why they are lacking in dozens of municipalities. Using Good Governance Africa’s 2024 Governance Performance Index (GPI), this policy briefing provides a range of stakeholders with consolidated insights into how these issues can be addressed.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Services, Planning, Monitoring, and and Evaluation (PME)
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

218. Reversing the resource curse: Advancing good natural resource governance for inclusive growth and sustainable development in Southern Africa

Author:: Sikhululekile Mashingaidze and Stephen Buchanan-Clarke
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: The International Energy Agency’s Medium-Term Gas Outlook in late 2023 notes that “Africa accounted for nearly 40% of new natural gas discoveries globally in the past decade, mainly in Mozambique, Mauritania, Senegal and Tanzania. However, socio-political instability and security issues make Africa a high-risk environment for the gas industry. This results in a gap between the potential and the actual gas production projects under development.” Nonetheless, the Agency forecasts natural gas production growth of 10% (higher than current levels) by 2026. It had only grown by 2.5% from 2011 to 2021, and currently accounts for roughly 6% of global production.1 Asian and Middle Eastern markets’ demand will continue2 while African governments will bet on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). In the longer term, it is critical to phase out fossil fuels due to their exacerbation of global warming and health and environmental risks. Given the imperative for lowercarbon growth trajectories, demand for oil, gas, and coal will likely peak in 2024. Governments and mining investors’ negotiations and contracts should safeguard local populations through ecologically sensitive, responsible mining. Communities’ voices are critical to decision-making from project inception to ensure revenues usher in broad-based growth and increased domestic energy security. In 2022, Good Governance Africa (GGA), with support from the Southern Africa Trust (SAT), explored critical issues surrounding LNG exploration and development in Southern Africa in the context of climate change.3 This intelligence report is a consolidation of key lessons from these LNG projects’ impact on local communities in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado; South Africa’s Eastern Cape, and Zimbabwe’s Cabora Bassa Basin. Together, these three cases illustrate both the promise and perils of LNG mining in Africa.
Topic:: Development, Natural Resources, Economic Growth, Sustainability, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

219. Decentralising the Just Energy Transition: The role of the private sector in supporting municipalities

Author:: Mmabatho Mongae and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: With nearly 86% of its carbon dioxide (CO2) coming from coal, South Africa is one of the world’s most coaldependent countries.1 Additionally, it produces nearly a quarter of the continent’s total carbon emissions.2 Its economy is highly dependent on agriculture and mineral extraction, which are energy-intensive. Importantly, South Africa is subject to climate variability and change.3 The effects are exacerbated by dysfunctional municipalities’ limited ability to build climate resilience systems and ensure robust disaster risk management. With local government administrative instability, service delivery failures, and financial mismanagement highlighted by Good Governance Africa’s (GGA) Governance Performance Index (GPI), societal stakeholders bear the brunt of dysfunction, particularly amidst escalating climate-induced natural disasters, which further strain government resources. As such, the fight against climate change requires a coordinated response from government, the private sector, and citizens. Presently, citizens do not identify the private sector as a key stakeholder in mitigating climate change. This suggests that the private sector does not have a visible presence in the fight against climate change, thereby presenting the private sector with an opportunity to support the decentralisation of the just energy transition. These efforts can also form part of attempts by the private sector to mainstream Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) best practices.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

220. Dark Spots in the International Commodity Value Chain: The Case of Copper in Zambia

Author:: Dale Mudenda and Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: This paper investigates mineral export misinvoicing in Zambia as a channel of capital flight, with a focus on copper, gold, and gemstones. The analysis reveals major discrepancies between Zambia’s recorded exports and imports as recorded by its trading partners. In the case of copper, a large share of exports recorded in Zambia as headed to Switzerland does not appear in Swiss imports. The ‘missing copper’ cannot be traced through analysis of trade between Switzerland and its major partners either. Gaps in the opposite direction are observed in Zambia-China trade, suggesting export underinvoicing, a common mechanism of capital flight. These do not offset the gaps observed in mirror trade statistics between Zambia and Switzerland, which remain a mystery. Similarly, whereas the primary destination recorded for Zambian gold exports is South Africa, these do not appear in gold imports recorded by South Africa. The gemstones sector is characterized by high informality that enables smuggling and export underinvoicing. Zambia must implement measures to curb misinvoicing of mineral exports and address structural opacity in the trade value chain if it hopes to maximize the gains from the exploitation of its mineral resources.
Topic:: Political Economy, Commodities, Exports, Global Value Chains, and Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

221. Current Developments in West Africa’s Regional Integration – Challenges for the Future Design of Foreign and Development Policy

Author:: Klaus Grütjen
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: On 16 September 2023, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger – all three states led by military regimes – decided to establish a new regional organisation, the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des Etats du Sahel – AES). This move was prompted by the worsening of the crisis within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 2023, a crisis that reached its peak to date with the announcement by the three AES members on 28 January 2024 of their withdrawal from ECOWAS, a regional organisation set up back in 1975. In a socio-political context in which the role and functions of the state, the extent of state powers and the way in which they are exercised are increasingly being called into question, new forms of political and social organisation are developing. These are also influenced by the current geopolitical developments in the changing world order. At the same time, states and societies and the ongoing regional integration processes are facing major new challenges. Within ECOWAS, conventional ideas of state and society, values and structures are coming up against growing tendencies towards a new understanding of statehood and sovereignty. In the West Africa/Sahel region, new processes of nation-building and state-building are under way, underpinned by efforts to renew social cohesion and to integrate the ‘vital forces of the nation’ – a concept cited increasingly frequently in these countries – as comprehensively as possible. These developments call for a realignment of German and European foreign and development policy. The political and social conditions and expectations of the partners in the West Africa/Sahel region are currently undergoing profound transformation. They need to be aligned with the content and interests of the value-based foreign policy advocated by Germany – in line with the principle of a ‘partnership between equals’. Any appraisal of the future developments and integration of the dynamics that determine them must take account of the various integration processes, which are particularly diversified and run in parallel in this region. Adopting a comparative perspective, this paper provides an overview of the various regional organisations in the West Africa/Sahel region. It analyses the potential of each of them in terms of their development prospects and sustainability. In addition to the critical relationship between ECOWAS and the AES, it also examines the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), the Integrated Develop-ment Authority of the Liptako-Gourma Region (Autorité de Liptako-Gourma – ALG) and the G5 Sahel, which is currently being dissolved. If the partnership between Germany and Europe on the one hand and the West African and Sahel states on the other is to be continued, it will be vital to adopt a pragmatic approach and maintain a political dialogue with all the partners. The states in this region are extremely important to Europe’s future development. Moreover, it is only through communication based on mutual respect underpinning cooperation in the economic and development sectors that the growing influence of political powers such as Russia and Iran – whose ideas, interests and values are not in line with the Western Atlantic model of democracy governed by the rule of law – can be curbed effectively.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

222. "The Dead Became Uncountable": Mass Atrocities in Sudan

Author:: Danica Damplo
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: On April 15th, 2023, fighting broke out in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), headed by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and a powerful paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), headed by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti). The conflict has killed more than 13,000 people and displaced more than 7.3 million people.1 The RSF and its allied militias reignited a campaign of widespread, systematic, and ethnically-motivated violence in the region of Darfur, targeting non-Arab communities. Efforts by the United States (US) and others have failed to secure a durable ceasefire or to protect a new generation in Darfur from the risk of genocide. The conflict that began in April is a continuation of the cycles of violence that have persisted in Sudan for decades, including a period of mass atrocities in 2003-2005 in Darfur, for which former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir was charged with genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC).2 The SAF and RSF had previously joined forces in 2019 to oust al-Bashir following widespread protests in which the Sudanese people called for transitional justice and a transition to democracy. However, in 2021, the SAF and RSF overthrew the transitional government that had replaced al-Bashir. In April 2023, disagreements between al-Burhan and Hemedti exploded into open warfare.3 While earlier conflicts had spared Sudan’s capital, since April civilians in Khartoum and nearby Omdurman have endured violent clashes, aerial bombardment, sexual violence, and a humanitarian crisis. The conflict spread, with the RSF seeking to control the Darfur region and branching out from the west, and the SAF based out of the city of Port Sudan in the east. The RSF is supplied by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the SAF is supported by Egypt.4 In June 2023, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum sounded the alarm about the dire risk of genocide in Darfur.5 That risk remains high today. None of the conditions referenced in this warning have improved since June, and the numbers of civilians killed or harmed has risen dramatically. Among the communities at greatest risk today are those who survived genocide twenty years ago and who have continued to suffer since. This brief will detail mass atrocities underway in Sudan, highlight present and future risks not only in Darfur but elsewhere, and offer policy options for an effective response.
Topic:: Civil War, Armed Conflict, Atrocity Prevention, Protection, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

223. The Judgment of Climate Change on Food Availability in Nigeria

Author:: Olubunmi David Apeloko, Celestina Ekene Chukwudi, Fadeke Esther Olu-Owolabi, and Samuel Ezennia
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Climate change is a global phenomenon that has significant implications for food security, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. This study is set to explore the nature of the relationship between climate change and food security and the various ways to address the impact of climate change on food availability in Ogun State, Nigeria. Relying on the green theory, this study investigated climate change's impact on the agricultural sector, compromising food security in Ogun State, Nigeria. This study's qualitative data collection methods include primary and secondary data sources. This study adopted the exploratory research design. Interviews were used to gather primary data, and existing literature was used to collate secondary data. This work covered the staff of the Ministry of Agriculture in the selected state, lecturers in the Department of Economics, Covenant University, and the faculty of agriculture at Obafemi Awolowo University. The thematic content analysis was adopted in analyzing the data in this study. The findings from the data revealed that there is a clear relationship between climate change and food security. It also revealed that climate change has a negative impact on food availability in Ogun State, Nigeria. In addition, strategies and policies put in place to address the issues of climate change and food security were discussed. It was concluded that climate change has affected Ogun State's food security between 2019 and 2023.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

224. Billion-Dollar Exposure: Investor-State Dispute Settlement in Mozambique’s Fossil Fuel Sector

Author:: Lea Di Salvatore and Maria Julia Gubeissi
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:: Mozambique is endowed with extensive untapped natural resources, particularly gas and coal. The country’s gamble on fossil fuel-based economic growth comes with signiicant economic risks and crowds out investments in the country’s enormous renewable energy potential. ◆Mozambique faces a substantial economic risk due to its exposure to investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) claims by foreign investors in its coal, oil, and gas sectors. The investment protections in the country’s international investment agreements and contracts, combined with ISDS, expose Mozambique to multi-billion-dollar financial liabilities. Even conservative estimations show that potential ISDS liabilities from oil and gas projects would cover almost a decade of Mozambique’s government expenditures for SDGs. ◆ Mozambique’s international investment agreements and publicly available oil, gas, and coal contracts allow foreign investors to bypass the national judicial system and bring multi-billion-dollar ISDS claims against Mozambique. Such claims can result in significant costs for the country, and they also have a considerable chilling effect on any new public-interest regulation in areas such as health, environment, community rights or labor protections. ISDS can undermine attempts to adopt meaningul legislation to transition away from fossil fuels and achieve sustainable development goals. This regime can therefore contribute to locking the country into a high-carbon economy. ◆In addition, multiple stabilization clauses in the analyzed contracts lock the operations into specific legal and fiscal regimes for the duration of the contracts. Stabilization clauses protect investments from unexpected regulatory changes or new fiscal rules. If a host state does introduce such changes, stabilization clauses allow investors to demand measures or compensation that would ensure their same profitability absent such changes. These clauses thus exacerbate the limits to – and chilling effect on – states’ public interest regulation. ◆Mozambique and other countries can take actions to remove ISDS from their contracts and treaties, replacing the mechanism with alternative dispute resolution mechanisms. They can also take steps to terminate investment agreements in force. Home countries of Mozambique’s foreign investors have a responsibility to support such action, especially as they, themselves, remove ISDS from their own treaties.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Gas, Investment, Fossil Fuels, Coal, and Disputes
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

225. Engaging Indigenous Peoples in Elections

Author:: Rebecca Aaberg
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES)
Abstract:: About 5 percent of the world’s population identify as Indigenous, including more than 5,000 cultures that speak over 4,000 languages. The first global report on Indigenous Peoples and elections since the adoption of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, “Engaging Indigenous Peoples in Elections: Identifying International Good Practices through Case Studies in Guatemala, Kenya, and Nepal” is a collaboration of the Endorois Indigenous Women Empowerment Network (EIWEN – Kenya), Fundación Guillermo Toriello (FGT – Guatemala), the National Indigenous Disabled Women Association Nepal (NIDWAN), and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES). Developed with support from the Swedish International Development Agency (Sida) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the report provides new insights into the political life of Indigenous Peoples globally, grounded in primary source evidence from Guatemala, Kenya, and Nepal, as well as interviews with international experts. A collaboration between IFES and Indigenous Peoples Organizations, the report includes recommendations for duty-bearers such as election management bodies (EMBs) and rights holders. The report contains sections on international human rights frameworks; voter registration; voter education; polling; representation, candidacy, and leadership; and intersectionality and indigeneity. Barriers experienced globally by Indigenous Peoples are provided for each section, for example: Exclusion of traditional and customary Indigenous institutions from state decision-making; The need to travel long distances or through difficult terrain to register; Lack of information about elections in Indigenous languages, including Indigenous sign languages; Polling stations often inaccessible to Indigenous persons with disabilities and lack assistive devices for voting, reducing access to secret balloting; Discrimination against Indigenous candidates; Scant representation of Indigenous Peoples, including Indigenous persons with disabilities, Indigenous women, and young Indigenous persons, in local and national legislative offices.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Indigenous, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, South Asia, Nepal, Central America, and Guatemala

226. The Congolese Fight for Their Own Wealth

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: The DRC’s vast mineral wealth contrasts with its extreme poverty, caused by exploitation and conflict. The dossier emphasises sovereignty and dignity, echoing Congolese activists’ visions for freedom.
Topic:: Poverty, Sovereignty, Conflict, Minerals, Exploitation, and Activism
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

227. Stabilisation and the Central Sahel

Author:: Ekaterina Golovko and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The international community hasn’t been successful in its efforts to support ‘stabilisation’ in the central Sahel. To learn lessons from recent engagement, this policy brief seeks to make three contributions to an already long list of ‘strategic misfits’. First, that ‘stabilisation responses’ are built on the wrong assumption “to bring back the state” and “expand state presence”, without serious work on how to reform the state that had to be brought back. Second, that external actors – and in particular Western governments – consistently overestimated their ability to influence and effect real change in the region and have to become more modest in their objectives. Third, that there is an urgent need to apply these lessons to the new area of policy attention: coastal countries of West Africa and the fight against violent extremism. This policy brief calls for a stronger reflection on what decades of largely failing Sahelian policy can tell us about how to engage with Coastal West Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Countering Violent Extremism, and Stabilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Sahel

228. Exploring the risk of violent extremism along the border between Northern Benin and Nigeria

Author:: Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: For over a decade, researchers and politicians feared a link between extremist groups in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin. Since 2014, studies have pointed to Benin’s unfortunate potential to serve as a geographical hinge. So far, evidence has been largely absent. While violent extremism in northern Benin is typically regarded as a “spillover” from the Sahel our report “Dangerous Liaisons: Exploring the risk of violent extremism along the border between northern Benin and Nigeria” warns that a large violent extremism problem has emerged in North West Nigeria that now threatens Benin. In the cross-border Borgou region (Benin), a collaboration between Nigerian and Sahelian insurgents is in the making along Benin’s border with Nigeria. These signals are extremely concerning, and action is needed. Nigeria and Benin should cease the d’entente between Talon and Tinubu and intensify cooperation. This should take the form of information exchange, arranging hot-pursuit and consider joint action. But also Western donors and programming need to break stove-piped responses in the Sahel and Lake Chad respectively. The two conflicts appear to merge and a more united and flexible response is needed.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, and Borders
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, and Benin

229. From Catastrophe to Famine: Immediate action needed in Sudan to contain mass starvation

Author:: Anette Hoffmann
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The conflict in Sudan has a substantial impact on the country’s food system and hinders people’s ability to cope with food shortages. As the country shows the worst hunger level ever recorded during the harvest season (from October to February), which is usually a period when food is more available, the severity and scale of hunger in the coming lean season (mid-2024) will be catastrophic. This policy brief argues that rather than the inevitable consequence of war, this food crisis is the result of the generals’ deliberate destruction of Sudan’s food system and the obstruction of people’s coping mechanisms. Based on available data and famine literature, accounts from hunger sufferers, as well as discussions with experts in and on Sudan, this policy brief outlines scenarios that look several months beyond currently available food insecurity forecasts. According to the most likely scenario, seven million people will face catastrophic levels of hunger by June 2024 (IPC5), with mass starvation being the prospect. The window by which to significantly reduce the impact of what is becoming the world’s largest hunger crisis in decades is rapidly closing. Besides increasing diplomatic and economic pressure to stop the war, the EU, its member states, the US, the UK, and Norway, as well as the UN and INGO partners must urgently and massively scale up meaningful assistance by: i. Declaring the risk of famine for Sudan; ii. Injecting mobile cash directly to local producers, as well as to consumers and local aid providers (Emergency Response Rooms); iii. Immediately scaling up food aid and WASH (Water, Sanitation and Hygiene) support.
Topic:: Civil War, Humanitarian Aid, Famine, Food Security, Humanitarian Crisis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

230. Stabilization Policies After the Sahel Coups

Author:: Florence Schimmel and Armin Schäfer
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Sahel is increasingly ruled by authoritarian military regimes; co-operation with them towards goals such as stability and peace is becoming more and more difficult for Germany. Following the recent coups in Mali and Niger in particular, the question now is whether and how the previous stabilization policies can be continued. For around ten years, Germany, together with the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, has been pursuing stabilization policies that focus on strengthening fragile governments. In the future, Germany must more clearly define which partners are considered legitimate and which fundamental principles should apply, notwithstanding the high degree of context-specificity.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Coup, and Stabilization
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, Germany, Sahel, and United States of America

231. Race Politics and Colonial Legacies: France, Africa and the Middle East

Author:: Hisham Aïdi, Marc Lynch, Zachariah Mampilly, Baba Adou, and Oumar Ba
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:: In February 2020 – the eve of the COVID-19 pandemic – the Project on Middle East Political Science held a preliminary meeting at Columbia University in New York to explore the origins of the Africa-Middle East divides that treat North Africa as part of the Middle East and neglect states such as Sudan and Mauritania. Columbia was an appropriate place to begin such a dialogue. Two decades ago, when two of us (Aidi and Mampilly) were graduate students at Columbia, the Institute of African Studies was in serious crisis. The Ugandan political theorist Mahmood Mamdani arrived and launched an initiative to decolonize the study of Africa to counter Hegel’s partition of Africa by transcending the Saharan and red Sea divides, and by underscoring Africa’s links to Arabia, Asia and the New World. To that end, we co-organized a second conference on racial formations in Africa and the Middle East looking at race-making across these two regions comparatively, including the border zones often left out of both African and Middle Eastern Studies: the Sudans, Amazigh-speaking areas in the Sahel, Arabic speaking areas on the Swahili coast and Zanzibar. This workshop represents the third in our series of transregional studies across the Africa-Middle East divide.
Topic:: Politics, Post Colonialism, Race, History, Colonialism, Islamophobia, and Racialization
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Europe, Sudan, Middle East, France, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia, Mauritania, and United States of America

232. Unveiling Dissent: Eritrean Diaspora Festival Turmoil and Social Media Mobilization

Author:: Yonatan Tewelde
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:: Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:: Amidst the TikTok videos that inundated the Eritrean digital landscape during the summer of 2023, a tapestry of dissent unfolds. A wounded protestor, his head swathed in bandages, is ushered into an ambulance: a powerful testament to the toll of resistance. A striking photograph captures a black man in a blue shirt adorned with the raised fist logo of Birgade Nhamedu (a new, diaspora Eritrean, youth-led movement). He is handcuffed and escorted by three stern riot police officers, his silent defiance echoing louder than words. Videos depict intense street clashes between two factions in Israel, one clad in blue shirts and the other in red, hurling projectiles amidst tear gas clouds, their battlegrounds emblazoned with the fervor of discord. The lens then shifts to scenes of vulnerability, with two young women kneeling before the police, one clad in the emblematic blue shirt, the other brandishing the Israeli flag and a gallon of milk, a poignant plea for justice. Across borders, from Ontario to Seattle, a sea of blue-shirted protestors unites in dance, protest, and celebration. However, the more forceful videos paint a vivid picture of upheaval; festival venues overrun, tents ablaze, and the clash between the dissenting blues and the establishment’s red emblematic of a struggle that transcends geographical boundaries. These TikTok vignettes, widely shared and discussed with viral fervor, capture the essence of a burgeoning movement of global dissidents led by young Eritrean refugees. Their resistance is motivated by their opposition to an authoritarian government that has been in power since 1991. This movement represents a visceral reaction to the years of forced military conscription from which the prostestors sought refuge. The struggle unfolds as a response to a range of egregious acts, including enslavement, imprisonment, enforced disappear- ance, torture, persecution, rape, and murder. These inhumane acts have been systematically carried out since the Eritrean government authorities assumed control of the territory in 1991. The United Nations has since condemned these actions as crimes against humanity.1
Topic:: Diaspora, Social Media, Dissent, and Mobilization
Political Geography:: Africa and Eritrea

233. Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa: Can the African Union and Regional Organizations Defend and Consolidate Democracy?

Author:: Joshua O. Bolarinwa
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This research evaluates the contemporary increase in military coups in Africa and analyses the effectiveness of the African Union (AU) and other regional institutions in safeguarding and promoting democratic government following existing frameworks and policies. The African Union’s framework for Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCG) and its subsequent execution have faced significant problems in response to the recent revival. The African Union has garnered commendation for its stance in opposition to military coups. Nevertheless, it has been noted that the organization has exhibited inadequate engagement and delayed responsiveness in addressing instances of the unconstitutional exercise of power. Numerous historical figu-res have exhibited a proclivity for disregarding established institutions that have played a pivotal role in facilitating their ascent to positions of authority.
Topic:: Democracy, Coup, African Union, Military, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:: Africa

234. The Future of Japan-Africa Cooperation: TICAD

Author:: Habib Badawi
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Africa will remain relevant to Japan as a necessary means to achieve some of its long-term political, economic, and strategic goals. Additionally, Japan seeks to expand its relations with the continent. However, it is diffi-cult to view Japan’s participation in Africa as part of an integrated policy or a well-thought-out long-term strategy, but only as a set of goals and some of the tools and mechanisms used to achieve those goals. This is largely reflected in Japan’s failure to prioritize its economic and political interests in its relationship with Africa. While Japan views Africa primarily through an economic lens, it has other major political interests. As Japan strives to bolster the dynamism of its ongoing development, production, and trade through a manufacturing and trade strategy designed to adapt to circumstances and mitigate crises, the nation has concurrently hei-ghtened its ambition for strategic hotspots, including resources and wealth. This is evident in its keen interest in the African continent and the ongoing competition between European and American powers for control over it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, Economy, Trade, Strategic Interests, and Resources
Political Geography:: Africa and Japan

235. Atlantism Under Maintenance: A Review of the Brazil-Cape Verde Partnership During the Dilma Rousseff Administrations (2011–2016)

Author:: Tatiana Raquel Reis Silva and Leandro Chaves Batista
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: From a holistic perspective, Brazil’s foreign policy towards the African continent has historically been marked by moments of greater proximity and others of relative distance. Authors such as Barriviera (2016) and Costa (2015) claim that there’s been a downturn in Brazil-Africa relations since Dilma Rousseff became president. It is essential to situate the relations established between Brazil and the various African nations as a phenomenon integrated into the logic of South-South Cooperation (SSC), a segment of Internatio-nal Development Cooperation (IDC) that encompasses political, diplomatic and commercial ties between developing countries, guided by the principle of horizontality, with an emphasis on mutual benefits. With regard to the cooperation established with the archipelago of Cape Verde, it is important to note that it is supported by a basal document: the Basic Agreement on Scientific and Technical Cooperation, signed in 1977.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Dilma Rousseff, and Atlantism
Political Geography:: Africa, Brazil, and Cabo Verde

236. Government, State, and National Wars in Africa

Author:: Nathaly Silva Xavier Schütz and Hernán Olmedo González
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: To what extent were internal wars in African countries after World War II conditioned by their limited levels of governmental entrenchment and statehood? This is the central issue guiding the following research, which focuses on African countries in the post-World War II period, a period in which the system of sovereign States — with its origins in modernity and formally in Europe with the Peace of Westphalia treaties of 1648 — reached the vast majority of the international system. To achieve this objective, the following article is structured as follows.The first section aims to present, in the first instance, empirical information about the relative weight that internal national wars had on the international system in general and in Africa in particular, followed by a presentation of the different propositions about the conditioning factors of this type of war in the international system and African States, and, finally, establish guiding hypotheses for the empirical research of the study. The second section describes the methodological project followed to test the hypo-theses defined in the first section. The third section presents the empirical results of the research and the data analysis. Finally, the article develops a conclusion that systematizes the main aspects of the study.
Topic:: Government, History, State, World War II, and International System
Political Geography:: Africa

237. Skimming the East African Community Regional Force in the Kivu: Another Test Case of ‘African Solutions to African Problems’

Author:: Jean-Marie Kasonga Mbombo
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Regional integration is premised on the principle of subsidiarity enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations Organisation which empowers regional bodies to resolve conflicts in their jurisdictions (Chapter 8, Article 52). It implies cooperation among states sharing a geographic proximity. In Africa, such regional organisations include the Economic Community of West African Countries (ECOWAS), Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), Common Market for East Africa (COMESA), East African Community (EAC), and Southern African Development Community (SADC) to name but a few. However, the end of the Cold War witnessed the rise of intrastate conflicts worldwide, which many analysts associated with donor fatigue toward aid-dependent states (Thomas and Mazrui 1992; Bayart 2009; Bates 2008; Solomon 2015). These new wars of the 1990s were more pronounced in resource-rich countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Chad, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kaldor 2006; Collier 2008). As a result, many economic communities established relevant protocols to boost regional integration and foster peace on the African continent: ECCAS Protocol of Peace and Security; ECOWAS Protocol relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping, and Secu-rity (1999); SADC Protocol on Politics, Defence and Security (2001); EAC Protocol on Peace and Security (2013).
Topic:: Economics, Regional Integration, Regional Organizations, and East African Community (EAC)
Political Geography:: Africa and East Africa

238. Rethinking Community Response Against Violent Extremism

Author:: Hippolyt Pul
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: Governments of coastal states of West Africa have responded with military and non-military approaches to stem the southward drift of violent extremist groups (VEGs). However, the extent to which citizens in frontier communities are ready to engage in actions to prevent, pre-empt, protect and respond to attacks by violent extremists and terrorists (VET) in their communities remains an open question. Based on data from primary mixed methods research — in frontier communities in two administrative districts of the Upper West Region of Ghana — this paper argues that citizens’ awareness of the threats of VEGs and their preparedness to prevent, pre-empt, protect and respond to attacks by violent extremists and terrorists (VET1 ) in their communities is a mirage, as the findings from the use of the See Something, Say Something campaign is an ineffective tool for mobilizing citizens for anti-VET engagement. To engage citizens, anti-VET actors must compete with and beat the sophisticated propaganda machinery of VETs in both the traditional and non-traditional media. Critically, it is not enough to communicate facts and figures. Anti-VET messaging must move beyond the cognitive into the affective realm through incorporating the concerns, needs, and interests of citizens in the non-kinetic approaches. For communities along the frontiers, anti-VET activism must address their human and livelihood security concerns of food, income, health, and other livelihood security needs that drive their local political economy. Without this, citizens have little interest in participating in anti-VET actions that may be disruptive to their livelihood systems without the provision of alternatives.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Countering Violent Extremism, and Communities
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

239. Place-based Policies and Household Wealth in Africa

Author:: Matthew Amalitinga Abagna, Cecília Hornok, and Alina Mulyukova
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of a prominent place-based policy - Special Economic Zones (SEZs) - on the economic well-being of African households. We compile a novel dataset on repeated cross-sections of households living in various distance bands around SEZs in 10 African countries over the period of 1990 to 2020. Exploiting time variation in SEZ establishment, the estimation yields that households in the vicinity of SEZs become significantly wealthier compared to the national average after SEZs are established. The effect is most pronounced for households within 10 km and decays rapidly with distance. We show that this result is not driven by the residential sorting of wealthier households in SEZ neighbourhoods. The rise in wealth is strongest towards the middle of the wealth distribution and goes hand in hand with increased access to household utilities, higher consumption of durable goods, higher levels of education, and a shift away from agricultural activities - patterns that we interpret as indicative of an urbanization trend and the strengthening of the middle class.
Topic:: Migration, Economic Growth, Special Economic Zones, Labor Market, Wealth, Opportunity, and Household Income
Political Geography:: Africa

240. What role for Chinese FDI in Africa? New survey evidence from Ethiopia and Ghana

Author:: Charles Ackah, Alemayehu Geda, Holger Görg, and Federico Merchan
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Foreign investments bring in not only new employment but also novel technology, managerial skill and know-how, that may also dissipate into the local economy. It is not clear whether this effect differs by the nationality of source countries, in particular between Chinese and non-Chinese firms. Based on a firm level survey on Ethiopia and Ghana, we found that all types of firms are engaged in limited R&D and innovation activity and their transfer to host countris in both countries. There is little difference between Chinese and non-Chinese foreign firms in such technology and managerial skill transfer once controlling for firm size and industry characteristics in the majority of metrices (R&D activities, horizontal & vertical spillover, directly adopting techniques). However, we found for Ghana that Chinese firms have more suppliers but are less likely to transfer technology to them. Chinese firms are more likely to transfer managerial skills than non-Chinese firms in Ghana though not in Ethiopia. Also, there is little evidence that foreign firms transfer technology via horizontal or backward spillovers in either countries. Finally, Chinese firms are much more likely to receive host country policy support than other foreign firms in Ghana but not in Ethiopia.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Technological Transfer
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Ethiopia, and Ghana

241. The Motives for Chinese and Western Countries’ Sovereign Lending to Africa

Author:: Eckhardt Bode
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper is one of the first to show systematically that the motives for sovereign lending to African countries differed considerably between China and Western countries during the last two decades. While Chinese lending mainly served its own economic or geopolitical objectives, which is well-known from the existing literature, Western countries’ lending also pursued objectives that appear to be at odds with their self-interests but whose precise nature is not yet well-understood. Using a new, da-taset on loans from China, Western countries and multilateral organizations to African countries, I empirically examine a broad variety of potential motives, aim at separating the motives pursued by the national governments from those pursued by their lending agencies, and employ an estimation strategy with increasingly complex fixed effects that yields additional interesting insights into the specificities of the motives.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, and Sovereign Lending
Political Geography:: Africa, China, and Global West

242. African Sovereign Defaults and the Common Framework: Divergent Chinese Interests Grant Western Countries a “Consumer Surplus”

Author:: Eckhardt Bode
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: • China has become a major player in sovereign lending towards Africa during the past two decades but has recently been faced with increasing defaults. A new African debt crisis is looming. • Differences in the motives of sovereign lending between China and Western creditor countries contribute to preventing effective global sovereign debt management under the “Common Framework for Debt Treatment” in this looming African debt crisis. Chi-nese lending during the past two decades was motivated primarily by its own economic interests while most of the Western countries’ lending appears to be at odds with their self-interests but is not yet well-understood. • Debt settlements under the Common Framework that involve China are less generous than past settlements with the Paris Club alone. This is an obstacle to a rapid and sus-tainable economic recovery of financially distressed African countries. • Western countries derive a kind of “consumer surplus” from the agreements under the Common Framework because they are prepared to make greater concessions than Chi-na. They could transfer this hypothetical surplus as additional (conditional) Official De-velopment Assistance to the defaulted African countries to alleviate social hardship.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Lending, Economic Crisis, Sovereign Debt, Consumer Behavior, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa and China

243. Optimal Investments in Africa’s Road Network

Author:: Sebastian Krantz
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper characterizes economically optimal investments into Africa's road network in partial and general equilibrium - based on a detailed topography of the network, road construction costs, frictions in cross-border trading, and economic geography. Drawing from data on 144 million trans-continental routes, it first assesses local and global network efficiency and market access. It then derives a large network connecting 447 cities and 52 ports along the fastest routes, devises an algorithm to propose new links, analyzes the quality of existing links, and estimates link-level construction/upgrading costs. Subsequently, it computes market-access-maximizing investments in partial equilibrium and conducts cost-benefit analysis for individual links and several investment packages. Using a spatial economic model and global optimization over the space of networks, it finally elicits welfare-maximizing investments in spatial equilibrium. Findings imply that cross-border frictions and trade elasticities significantly shape optimal road investments. Reducing frictions yields the greatest benefits, followed by road upgrades and new construction. Sequencing matters, as reduced frictions generally increase investment returns. Returns to upgrading key links are large, even under frictions.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Economic Growth, Investment, and Roads
Political Geography:: Africa

244. Urbanized and Savvy – Which African Firms are Making the Most of Mobile Money?

Author:: Charles Ackah, Aoife Hanley, Lars Hecker, and Michael Kodom
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Our analysis of over 500 Ghanaian firms sheds light, for the first time, on how certain firms managed to extract value from mobile money. Our regressions point to the usefulness of this form of cashless payments in stabilizing sales during the COVID pandemic. Perhaps the most important message from our analysis is the recognition that the benefits from mobile money extend beyond its purpose as a tool for transacting cashless payments. We reveal that firms using these additional tools supported by MoMo (e.g. for planning or saving purposes) report higher sales resilience, all things equal. Our findings appear to echo the literature on private householders (e.g. Jack and Suri, 2014). However, while the latter report a positive effect due to remittances, our finding is more likely driven by enhanced ability of businesses to streamline their planning and sales.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Globalization, Urbanization, Money, Innovation, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Africa

245. Nigerien Law 2015-36: How a New Narrative in the Fight Against Smugglers Affects the Right to Leave a Country

Author:: Sarah Isabel Pfeiffer
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Institution:: The Goettingen Journal of International Law
Abstract:: In 2015, the Republic of the Niger adopted an anti-migrant smuggling law (Law 2015-36) with direct involvement of the European Union (EU). Since then, concerns have been raised that this law constitutes a de facto travel ban for anyone moving northwards from Niger. Rather than addressing the involvement of the EU, this article will focus on the direct obligations of Niger, including those set by regional human rights agreements, as the country where the so-called cooperative migration control takes place. People on the move towards Libya will be a special focus as the most affected by the Nigerien law. First, the Nigerien law and its provisions will be described, in order to then assess whether the law and its application infringe the human right to leave any country including one’s own. Drawing from the findings of non-governmental organizations and the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Migrants, this article argues that Law 2015- 36 renders it impossible for non-Nigerien nationals to leave the country without risking their life and safety. Thus, Law 2015-36 infringes the right to leave. The third part explores possible justifications for the law with a focus on the interests of people on the move, the interests of bordering States, and national interests. It finds that Law 2015-36 is disproportionate and, in fact, impairs the essence of the right to leave, resulting in an unjustified interference. The concluding fourth part contains recommendations for possible amendments to the law.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Migration, European Union, Smuggling, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Nigeria

246. Environmental Peacemaking in Somalia: Integrated Climate and Conflict Analysis of the Newly Liberated Areas of Hirshabelle and Galmudug

Author:: Arthur Brochen, Mohamud Mohamed Khadar, Abdirashid Artan, Delphine Virnot, and Albert Martinez
Publication Date:: 09-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Institute of Peace (EIP)
Abstract:: This analysis assesses both the short and long-term impacts of environment- and climate-related security risks in the Newly Liberated Areas (NLA) of Somalia in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The analysis had the objectives of (1) understanding the pathways in which environmental and climate risks can affect conflict better and (2) developing actionable recommendations for environmental peacemaking and peacebuilding in these states of Somalia. This integrated climate and conflict analysis employed a methodology based on the conflict analysis guidance from the European External Action Service (EEAS) and the climate security guidance developed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, Conflict, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

247. Addressing the impacts of climate change in Africa: New urgency for international action

Author:: Maija Salonen and Antto Vihma
Publication Date:: 08-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The drought in the Horn of Africa in 2020–2023 and the floods in Libya in September 2023 are recent examples of climate change-induced disasters that were exacerbated by a lack of adaptive capacity. In the Horn of Africa, up to 2.7 million people were displaced by extreme weather events, and the catastrophic floods in Derna, Libya, killed approximately 11,000 people. In addition to the direct impacts, there is a need to understand the cascading impacts of climate change, which are likely to increasingly affect societal security. At present, the risks are growing faster than societal preparedness. The EU should raise political awareness of climate disasters and their cascading impacts. The ground needs to be prepared for decisive and ambitious climate change mitigation, and developed countries should offer continuous support for adaptation and capacity building.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, European Union, and Climate Governance
Political Geography:: Africa

248. Unpacking Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023)

Author:: Eugene Chen
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The approval of a framework for the financing of African Union (AU) peace support operations (PSOs) by the United Nations (UN) Security Council on December 21, 2023, with the adoption of resolution 2719, represents significant progress in the development of the UN-AU partnership in peace and security as well as a commitment from the Security Council to support the adequate, predictable, and sustainable financing of AU-led PSOs. At the same time, the achievements of the negotiators in reaching this outcome should not obscure the additional work that lies ahead to interpret, implement, and build on the resolution.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Peacekeeping, UN Security Council, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

249. Who Will Cities Be For? Inequality, Housing, and the Future of African Urbanization

Author:: Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: As urban areas absorb most of the population growth in the upcoming decades, urbanization presents unique opportunities to transform a society’s economic, social, and political landscape. How cities perform in these dimensions will determine whether societies can become more peaceful, just, and inclusive, and be effectively prepared to respond to future crises. In an urban age shaped by inequalities, policies on housing can either be a catalyzer of equitable and sustainable development or contribute to a vicious cycle of exclusion that hinders governments’ ability to address today’s global challenges. Approaching the issue of housing from a purely technical lens overlooks its political nature, wherein the tension between ensuring residents’ right to housing and promoting real estate financialization for economic gain encapsulates broader questions such as who belongs in a city, or a society’s vision of its own future. Housing is therefore not just a technical or financial issue, but also one of governance. Two-thirds of African cities that will exist in 2050 have yet to be built. Making space to house these new urban residents by building new homes presents an opportunity to do it with a people-centered approach. Effective housing governance requires dismantling past structures that perpetuate exclusionary practices; challenging simplistic narratives of urban glory that end up promoting the financialization of housing; and building coalitions that work for a renewed social contract through access to housing.
Topic:: Urbanization, Inequality, Cities, and Housing
Political Geography:: Africa

250. Continuity and Change: Extremist-used Arms in Mali

Author:: Holger Anders
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Mali has faced more than a decade of armed violence perpetrated by extremists, resulting in thousands of victims among national and international armed forces, UN peacekeepers, and civilians. Continuity and Change: Extremist-used Arms in Mali—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—investigates the arms, ammunition, explosives, and other materiel used in extremist attacks in Mali from 2015 to 2022, and the sources and pathways through which they were obtained.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Violent Extremism, Weapons, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, and Sahel

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS