Political Geography: Africa - CIAO Search Results

151. The Global State of al-Qa`ida 24 Years After 9/11

Author:: Colin Clarke and Clara Broekaert
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Al-Qa`ida has evolved considerably over the past four decades. Today, it is no longer a hierarchical organization with charismatic leadership, but rather a decentralized network of franchise groups dispersed throughout Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and beyond. The group has not conducted spectacular external operations (EXOPS) for many years, but instead has been focused on patiently rebuilding, dedicating its resources and manpower to forging relationships with regional affiliates and championing their grievances, which are often locally focused. Al-Qa`ida Central, including its senior leadership, has been attenuated, but the organization’s branches in Somalia and the Sahel are gaining momentum, and there is growing concern that al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is also looking to rebound. All of this is occurring against a backdrop of decline in the overall tempo of Western counterterrorism efforts, signaling the end of more than two decades of the Global War on Terrorism. Even in its diminished form, 24 years after the 9/11 attacks, al-Qa`ida and its global network of affiliates pose a serious latent security threat, including to the West, which takes these groups for granted at its own peril.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, Middle East, and Global Focus

152. Shifting sands in Somalia: Scenarios for the near-term future and policy options for the EU

Author:: Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Somalia currently stands at a crossroads, amidst major changes taking place in the country’s domestic political system (i.e. ongoing constitutional reforms) and in patterns of international assistance (i.e. a decreasing appetite by Western countries to provide large-scale support). At this pivotal juncture, it is essential for Somalia’s international partners to reassess how they can best promote long-term stability in the country. Over the past two decades, large flows of international assistance have fed into a highly exclusionary political system, whereby a restricted circle of elites have leveraged their position as gatekeepers of international engagement to advance their own political and personal interests, at the expense of those of the country. As such, this approach has failed to result in the systemic changes that it was supposed to generate, such as significant improvements in terms of stability, governance, and state-building, as well as efforts to defeat Al Shabaab’s insurgency. As this combination of large-scale investments and limited results drags on, several of Somalia’s foreign partners are facing increasing internal pressure to scale back their support, making the status-quo unsustainable in the long term. The scenario analysis conducted in this report suggests that the key determinant of the country’s future lies in making Somalia’s political system more inclusive, reducing the power of current elites. In order to move in this direction, Somalia’s international partners – including the EU and its member states – should focus on how to best leverage their foreign assistance to encourage a shift towards a more inclusive, accountable political system. To this end, EU policy makers should: (i) leverage electoral support and general budget support (including in coordination with the World Bank) to promote genuinely inclusive political processes and outcomes; (ii) strengthen their support for civil society entities (e.g. journalists, researchers, NGOs), including by providing them with diplomatic backing if needed, so that they can act as effective watchdogs against power abuses by political elites; and (iii) use the lessons learnt from past decades to strengthen the mitigation measures needed to avoid the international aid system from entrenching the power of established elites. In addition, at this time of pivotal changes for Somalia, donors should also reassess some of the more fundamental elements of their approach, including how to approach Al Shabaab and how to make the international aid system more effective and accountable. Further details on actionable recommendations are included in the last section of the report.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, European Union, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

153. Gender Justice and Accountability: An Analysis of the African Union Transitional Justice Policy

Author:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: This report analyses the gender sensitivity of the African Union’s Transitional Justice Policy (AUTJP). The AUTJP was widely hailed as a landmark development in the promotion of justice and accountability on the continent. Infused throughout the policy is the recognition that transitional processes must be gender sensitive. This report draws on a range of transitional justice practices and scholarship from the continent to identify opportunities for AU member states, civil society actors, and donors to build on the AUTJP. Given the wide range of transitional justice experiences on the continent, stakeholders can learn numerous lessons related to gender-sensitive approaches to justice and their implementation. Considering some of these experiences and lessons learned, the report offers guidance to transitional justice practitioners and human rights defenders who are trying to implement the AUTJP. In particular, it recommends taking a holistic approach to gender justice and the implementation of the AUTJP, which is the most promising way to ensure the AUTJP can deliver justice that is homegrown and unique to Africa.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Transitional Justice, Criminal Justice, Memory, African Union, Reparations, Truth and Reconciliation, Peace Process, Gender Justice, and Institutional Reform
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

154. The Integration of IDPs into host communities in Ouahigouya, Burkina Faso

Author:: Ekaterina Golovko and Laurens Willeme
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Over the past decade, the Central Sahel region has been plagued by high levels of violence and resulting displacement crises. Burkina Faso has become the epicentre of this crisis. The growing number of Internally Displaced People (IDPs) represents a significant challenge for the government and the humanitarian community but also for host populations. One of the central issues has become the management of the displacement crisis and the integration of IDPs into host communities. Providing humanitarian aid, durable solutions for IDPs, and promoting social cohesion are key to preventing instability and protecting citizens' rights. However, there is little discussion and analysis of the existing and potential problems that arise due to the settlement of IDPs among host communities. This report examines the integration of IDPs into host communities, focusing on tensions over resources, social cohesion, and the efforts to resolve these challenges. It highlights progress made by the Burkinabè Government, humanitarian organizations, and grassroots mediators, such as community protection mechanisms and access to schools and healthcare. However, issues like uncoordinated return efforts, insufficient data, and ongoing security threats persist. This report aims to deepen the understanding of local governance by examining the range of actors involved in the integration of IDPs into host communities. More broadly, it seeks to inform policymakers about the current situation of internal displacement in Ouahigouya, to identify the challenges that IDPs and host communities encounter, and to recommend actionable solutions.
Topic:: Displacement, Violence, Integration, and Internally Displaced Persons (IDP)
Political Geography:: Africa and Burkina Faso

155. El-Fasher’s Turning Point: Sudan Between the Risk of Fragmentation and Escalation

Author:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: The RSF seized El-Fasher after an 18-month siege, altering Sudan’s power balance, heightening risks of national fragmentation, and setting the stage for intensified conflict over Darfur and Kordofan.
Topic:: Civil War, Armed Conflict, Escalation, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Darfur, and El Fasher

156. Post-Military Politics and ‘Emi Lokan’ Democracy in Nigeria

Author:: Remi Chukwudi Okeke
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper interrogated post-military politics and ‘Emi Lokan’ democracy in Nigeria. It is a significant contribution to the ongoing academic focus on consolidating democracy in the country. According to the research hypothesis, post-military politics in the country still contain some unnecessary military-governance propensities that have not been fully identified for invalidation. The study examined the meaning of ‘Emi Lokan’ democracy. It investigated its democratic implications. The work was based on a qualitative research design, embedding the consultation of secondary sources of non-numeric data. A key message of the contribution is that the influence of military culture in the current democratic order in the country has remained undiminished. The work found that the ‘Emi Lokan’ political belief in Nigeria owes its distasteful origin to the interference of the military in the governance affairs of the nation. It is concluded in the paper that the undesirable ‘Emi Lokan’ democracy can only be stopped in the country by the coming together of a manifestly new breed of politicians. An auspicious attempt was made in this regard during the 2023 presidential election in the nation.
Topic:: Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

157. Understanding the Role of Women in Nigeria’s Non-State Armed Groups and Security Architecture

Author:: Michael Nwankpa
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Since 1999, when Nigeria returned to civilian government after successive military regimes, it has continued to face enormous challenges to its legitimacy and monopoly of the use of force. Protest groups, social movements, and non-state armed groups have emerged over the years to demand good governance in some cases and, in other extreme cases, secession, self-determination, and subversion of Nigeria’s secular political system. Many groups have been willing to take up arms against the state to pursue their objectives. Men are usually the significant actors in these armed groups, while most women are considered victims. However, since 2014, when Boko Haram started deploying female suicide bombers and mobilizing more and more girls and women in its terrorist strategies, women’s role in Nigeria’s armed conflicts and their capacity to use violence have gained visibility. Despite this, ascertaining the role of women (mainly whether they occupy positions of power and can perpetrate violence) in non-state armed groups’ activities against the Nigerian state remains difficult, judging by the overwhelmingly male-dominated recipients of the government’s amnesty and deradicalization programs. Relying on interviews with key respondents, this paper fills this gap by interrogating the role of women as victims or perpetrators in Boko Haram and Niger Delta insurgencies, Nigeria’s two foremost insurgencies since the return to democracy in 1999, as well as engaging with the prospect of an effective legislative and policy response that is negotiated by increasing the number of women in security and political leadership positions.
Topic:: Security, Non State Actors, Women, Disarmament, Boko Haram, Armed Conflict, Amnesty, and Reintegration
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, and Niger Delta

158. Friends in Need: Russian Strategic Communications in Africa Before and After the Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Christopher Babcock
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: Africa is becoming an important strategic hub for the Russian state as Putin’s regime faces rising ostracization elsewhere. In this paper, I analyze Russian influence in Africa by examining over 1,700 pieces of online content created or re-posted by 4 Russian embassies in Ghana, Ethiopia, the Republic of the Congo, and Tanzania between January 15 and December 31, 2022. I demonstrate that, despite new developments in Russian strategic communications, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has mostly fed pre-existing narratives rather than drastically shifting the focus or direction of state rhetoric. All four of the embassies used in the analysis promoted narratives that depicted Russia as a revisionist power going up against a “neocolonial” West, portrayed Ukraine as a neo-Nazi puppet of the West, and attempted to contrast this with Russia’s purportedly friendly relations with Africa. The scale and intensity of these narratives exploded in the leadup to and in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine—to the extent that some embassies began to focus almost exclusively on Ukraine in their communications. Meanwhile, many African nations were willing to pragmatically engage with Russia as an alternative (or complementary) ally to the West. Using both quantitative and qualitative analysis, I show that the war in Ukraine has revealed the fault lines of Russian and African thinking, loyalty, and strategy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Strategic Engagement, Russia-Ukraine War, and Strategic Communication
Political Geography:: Russia and Africa

159. A Land of Violence, A Land of Conquest: Memory, Truth, Historical Continuity, and Imperialism in Rwanda

Author:: Paolo Bellone
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:: School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:: How is the imperialism of a small African country connected with questions about its own identity and troubled past? In this paper, I try to analyze through the lenses of historical continuity how the ghosts of a dramatic past have crafted Rwanda’s foreign policy. My analysis goes deeper into the pre-colonial era, observing patterns of similarities throughout Rwandan history, starting from the kingdoms of Rwanda in the 18th century until Paul Kagame’s presidency (2000–present). Moreover, instead of seeing a historical break between the pre- and post-1994 genocide governments, I have found historical parallels with the Rwandan independent governments, especially between those of Juvénal Habyarimana (1973–1994) and Paul Kagame. Those similarities swing around the necessity of controlling ethnic dissent, determining a common truth, centralizing power, and establishing the cult of the leader. Nonetheless, the dramatic consequences of the genocide and the international legitimation that has brought on Kagame’s party Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) have had, as a result, an imperialistic project based on the necessity of defending “national security.” Rwanda’s delicate balance between managing internal dissent, the homogenization of the society through shared collective memory, and the imperialistic project is at the center of this work.
Topic:: Genocide, Imperialism, History, and Memory
Political Geography:: Africa and Rwanda

160. Emerging Powers and the Future of American Statecraft

Author:: Christopher S. Chivvis and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The structure of international politics is changing in ways that are not fully appreciated in Washington. The United States has paid a great deal of attention to the rise of China in the last decade but much less to emerging powers whose rise will also shape the operating environment for American statecraft. No single emerging power will have an impact tantamount to China’s, but they will have a significant impact collectively due to their geopolitical weight and diplomatic aspirations. America has limited ability to influence the trajectory of these emerging powers, identified in this report as Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and Türkiye. They have taken stances that contrast or directly clash with U.S. positions on China and on Russia over the past few years. Nearly all have voiced concerns about Washington’s approach to the war in Ukraine, even as they criticized Moscow’s invasion. Almost none would line up with the United States in a confrontation with China. Instead, they are likely to pursue highly self-interested foreign policies. Washington should expect that they will increasingly challenge some of its policies, sustain relationships with its adversaries, and press their own agendas on the global stage. The emerging powers’ statecrafts are shaped in large part by their drive for economic security. But their geographies, different preferences for world order, domestic politics, and defense relationships also play a role. Concerns about the strength of democracy in other countries, which has played an animating role in U.S. foreign policy for decades, are a lower priority for them, no matter how democratic they are. It will be a mistake for the United States to frame its relations with these emerging powers primarily as part of a competition for influence with China and Russia, however tempting it may be to do so. These powers are not swing states that will tilt decisively toward either side in a global great power competition. Most will resist any efforts to bring them into a U.S.-led camp as in the Cold War. Trying to make them do so would also risk strategic overreach by embroiling the United States too deeply in the emerging powers’ domestic politics or by expending its resources in pursuit of building ties that never materialize. A better approach for the United States would be to focus on negotiating interest-based deals with emerging powers while cordoning off areas of disagreement. These might include tailored market access and investment agreements, agreements on technology manufacturing, energy transition initiatives, efforts to combat deforestation, efforts to build public health infrastructure, and infrastructure investments. It would be wasteful of the United States to offer these countries security guarantees, but in some cases providing security assistance can serve its interests. Washington should accept that most of these countries will maintain close diplomatic, economic, and sometimes security relationships with China and probably Russia. Over the longer term, it will serve U.S. interests to strengthen the sovereignty of emerging powers when possible and cost-effective to do so. This will provide a bulwark against the undue expansion of China’s power and influence and help ensure that, even if they do not side with the United States, they are not drawn closely into the orbit of its major geopolitical competitors. Strengthening emerging powers’ sovereignty will also help boost their development as constructive powers with a stake in sustaining a peaceful world order conducive to global economic growth.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Strategic Competition, and Emerging Powers
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, China, Middle East, Asia, Latin America, and United States of America

161. South Africa’s Cyber Strategy Under Ramaphosa: Limited Progress, Low Priority

Author:: Joe Devanny and Russell Buchan
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: During the decades of apartheid, South Africa was an international pariah. Since the country transitioned to majority rule in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated politics, and the ANC has itself transitioned from a national liberation movement to a party of government. Domestically, South African cyber strategy should be seen as part of the ANC’s wider political challenge of trying to deliver economic growth, development, and prosperity. Over thirty years, the ANC has struggled to deliver on this agenda in a profoundly unequal society with infrastructure and institutions that have weakened particularly over the past fifteen years. Alongside confronting domestic challenges, the ANC has also tried to reshape South Africa’s global role. This was perhaps most visible under its first president, Nelson Mandela (1994–1999), but it was arguably pursued most systematically under Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki (1999–2008). This reorientation of South Africa in the world was an ambitious and complex project, the foundations of which were the country’s leading role in its region and continent as well as its ties within the wider Global South. The project entailed tensions between the progressive promotion of human rights and freedoms, on the one hand, and the cultivation of instrumental relations with authoritarian and repressive states, on the other. These tensions continue to affect South African foreign policy, including its cyber diplomacy. South Africa identifies cybersecurity as a key national priority and has to this end adopted a national cybersecurity strategy and established a military Cyber Command. The reality, however, is that other issues have been consistently ranked above cybersecurity, such as addressing corruption, poverty, racial and social injustice, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Cybersecurity has therefore not been seen as a high priority by successive South African governments. This has left Cyber Command underresourced and unmotivated. This deprioritization means that South Africa is unlikely to emerge as a prominent military or intelligence cyber power anytime soon. The wider lack of national prioritization will also make it harder for so-called like-minded states—which are bound together by a mutual respect for democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—to form an effective partnership with South Africa on the topic of cybersecurity. South Africa’s approach to international cyber governance debates has been cautious and noncommittal, reflecting cyber diplomacy’s relatively low priority in its national strategy. What position South Africa takes in cyber debates is, however, of keen interest to the international community. An important question is whether South Africa will support the existing multistakeholder approach to cyber governance that is championed by like-minded states or join China and Russia in their efforts to recalibrate this approach and push for greater state control over cyberspace. Indeed, under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa has not yet published its national position explaining how international law applies to cyberspace. A related question is whether South Africa will join like-minded states in elaborating how existing international law applies to cyberspace or side with China and Russia to campaign for new, bespoke international law (for example, treaties) to regulate this domain. When examining these questions, it is important to recognize the context of the ANC’s long-standing ties with Russia, both during its thirty years in government and in its previous decades struggling for national liberation. This is helpful for understanding South Africa’s interactions with Brazil, Russia, India, and China (which form the BRICS bloc with South Africa) and forecasting its future positions in cyber governance debates. For example, South Africa has been reluctant to unambiguously condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it appears to have supported Moscow by covertly supplying it with weapons. In the longer term, South Africa’s positions in cyber diplomacy debates will likely be shaped by trends in both domestic politics—such as the ANC’s waning electoral performance—and the success of digital development. In this context, it is perhaps advisable for like-minded states, such as the United States, to focus on cyber capacity-building assistance and ensure that these efforts play into the wider development agenda in South Africa.
Topic:: Corruption, Poverty, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:: Africa, Iran, and South Africa

162. The Complexities of the Somaliland-Ethiopia Sea Access Deal

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: From 9 December 2023 to 19 January 2024, ACLED records nearly 300 political violence events and at least 726 reported fatalities in Somalia. Most political violence centered in Lower Shabelle region, where al-Shabaab targeted security forces and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Mudug region had the highest number of reported fatalities, with 412. Lower Juba region followed, with at least 121 reported fatalities. Most of the fatalities came after battles between al-Shabaab and security forces. The most common event type was battles, with over 500 events, followed by explosions and remote violence, with nearly 180 events. Most of the events involved clashes between security forces and al-Shabaab.
Topic:: Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, Non State Actors, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, and Horn of Africa

163. Kenya: Women and Lawyers Demonstrate Nationwide

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: From 13 January to 16 February 2024, ACLED records 80 political violence events and 52 reported fatalities in Kenya. Most events took place in Samburu county, which witnessed increased violence involving bandits who loot valuables, including cattle. Turkana county had the highest number of reported fatalities due to civilian targeting by unidentified gunmen during raiding. The most common event type was riots, with 35 recorded events, followed by violence against civilians, with 26 events.
Topic:: Political Violence, Women, Protests, Demonstrations, and Lawyers
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, and Horn of Africa

164. One Year of War in Sudan

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Since fighting first broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on 15 April, ACLED records 5,550 events of political violence and more than 15,550 reported fatalities in Sudan. Between 15 April 2023 and 5 April 2024, the most political violence was recorded in Khartoum state, with over 3,660 events and over 7,050 reported fatalities.1 In all of Sudan, ACLED records over 1,400 violent events targeting civilians since the war began. Civilians in Khartoum state faced the most targeted violence, with more than 650 incidents and at least 1,470 reported fatalities. Targeted violence in Darfur was twice as likely to be deadly for civilians than targeted violence in other states in Sudan, with 32% of all reported civilian fatalities in the country being recorded in Darfur.
Topic:: Political Violence, Civil War, Armed Forces, Civilians, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

165. A Decade After Chibok: Assessing Nigeria’s Regional Response to Boko Haram

Author:: Olajumoke (Jumo) Ayandele and Chika Charles Aniekwe
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 14 April 2014, Boko Haram abducted more than 250 students, all girls, from their dormitories in Chibok, Borno state.1 Despite intensified offensives by the Nigerian military, the movement and its offshoot — the Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) — have persisted as a significant threat to Nigeria and its neighboring states in the Lake Chad region. The audacious attacks perpetrated by both factions on civilians and security posts, coupled with the adverse effects of their activities on vulnerable populations, underscore their adaptability and resilience in the face of sustained national and regional military campaigns by the Lake Chad Basin Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) over the past decade.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Boko Haram, Regional Security, and Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP)
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, and Chibok

166. Between violence, geopolitical competition, and the quest for social justice: Chad’s road to elections

Author:: Valerio Colosio
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Following three years of transitional government since President Idriss Déby’s assassination, Chad will hold presidential elections on 6 May amid tight political controls by the incumbent leader. In this guest contribution, Dr. Valerio Colosio examines political violence in Chad through two generations of Déby rule and whether the election will confirm the status quo or trigger some deeper transformations, in a moment of big geopolitical changes in the Sahel.
Topic:: Elections, Geopolitics, Social Justice, Violence, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, Chad, and Sahel

167. Spatiotemporal enabling/disabling factors of local agency in peacebuilding processes. Analysis from present time history and critical peace geography

Author:: Gonzalo Vitón
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to analyze how there are spatiotemporal factors that can disable/enable local agency capacities in peacebuilding processes. Those local agency capacities depend on the context, which are shaped both by time and space. The traditional conception of time and space allows only a narrow understanding that reduces the possibilities of agency, and to rethink and broaden the concept of time and space I rely on History of the Present Time and Critical Geography. This paper illustrates the theoretical debate through the women’s agency capacities in the Mozambican peace process. This example demonstrates the complexities and multifaceted disabling/enabling capacity of spatiotemporal factors for the exercise of agency and provide some guidelines to identify them.
Topic:: Women, History, Peacebuilding, and Agency
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

168. South Africa as a Leading Regional Power in Africa? An Analysis of the Implementation of the African Union, Auda-Nepad and Agenda 2063

Author:: Murilo Gomes da Costa
Publication Date:: 12-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The article analyzes South Africa’s role in the African Union’s Agenda 2063. It examines South Africa’s position as a leading regional power post-apartheid. The study contends that Pretoria has developed a strategy towards its region. The argument is supported by a descriptive analysis of the implementation of Auda-Nepad and South Africa’s efforts to broaden the thematic scope of the AU. The results show that South Africa’s strategy as a leading regional power in Africa has been achieved through Pretoria’s role as a paymaster in both the AU and Auda-Nepad, alongside the development of its own Agenda 2063 projects.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, African Union, and Regional Power
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

169. The Gendering of Sudan’s Brutal War

Author:: Nafisa Bedri and Tamsin Bradley
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Any analysis of the sexual violence and unfolding genocide must highlight the extent to which the media is still using an orientalist gaze to report on the war in Sudan
Topic:: Civil War, Genocide, Human Rights, Women, Media, Sexual Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

170. Mauritania: Public Opinion Report 2024

Author:: Sahel Foundation
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arab Barometer
Abstract:: Mauritania has begun a new phase of peaceful rotation of power, being an embodiment of democracy. This democratic transition has been seen through the country’s last government. Therefore, we observe the rising trend of citizens’ trust in the current government. Nine percent of Mauritanians say they trust the government to a great extent, and more than a quarter (27 percent) say they trust it. In contrast, 38 percent say they have little trust in the government, while nearly one-fifth (22 percent) have no trust in their government at all. In order to increase citizens’ trust in the government, it may be worthwhile to enhance communication between the government and citizens and transparently explain decisions and plans. Moreover, it could be important to that end to improve the quality of public services such as health, education, and infrastructure; strengthen the role of citizens in decision-making and participation in the political process; and take effective measures to combat corruption and promote good governance.
Topic:: Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, and Freedom
Political Geography:: Africa and Mauritania

171. Emerging public debt challenges in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Maureen Were
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s public debt burden remains a challenge to development. Key drivers of public debt include large-scale financing of infrastructure development, adverse impact of multiple shocks including COVID-19 pandemic, maturity mismatches, and high vulnerability to exchange rate and interest rate volatility. The tight financial conditions following interest rate hikes in advanced economies have exacerbated the debt burden and heightened debt sustainability risks. Half of the SSA low-income countries are either in debt distress or at high risk of it. Countries in debt distress include middle-income economies. Given the high cost of debt servicing and lack of fiscal space, achievement of sustainable development goals is in jeopardy. A long-term sustainable solution requires a multi-pronged approach. The G20 Common Framework for debt treatment remains limited in scope, coverage, and impact. More needs to be done including consideration for debt relief. Other strategies include access to long-term concessional finance, domestic resource mobilization, and improved efficiency in public spending and fiscal management.
Topic:: Development, Infrastructure, Sustainability, Public Debt, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

172. Institutions and governance in Mozambique :A bird’s eye view based on existing databases

Author:: Ines A. Ferreira
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Using publicly available databases and drawing on a wide range of indicators, this paper reviews the institutional performance of Mozambique across seven broad categories: rule of law and judicial independence; voice and freedom of expression/association; political participation; accountability and transparency; political instability and violence, and external relations; state legitimacy and political leadership; and governance and state capacity. Overall, the selected indicators point to similar trends within each dimension and suggest limited progress during the last decades. Still, it is fundamental that these insights and the scores presented by the indicators are put into context, and that we understand the historical path of Mozambique, the internal and external factors at play, and the fact that it takes time for progress achieved to be reflected in this type of data.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Freedom of Expression, Rule of Law, Accountability, Institutions, Judiciary, Instability, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

173. Cultivating change: the long-term impact of forced labour in Mozambique

Author:: Margherita Bove, Rute Martins Caeiro, Rachel Coelho, Sam Jones, and Patricia Justino
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Following the abolition of slavery, various forms of compulsory labour were adopted by colonial powers to develop their economies. This paper analyses the contemporary consequences of compulsory cotton production—a forced labour system that operated in colonial Mozambique from 1926 to 1961. During this period, the Portuguese colonial government granted geographic concessions to private companies, within which smallholder farmers were forced to cultivate cotton for payment in cash. Women bore the brunt of this regime, but in doing so often took on responsibilities traditionally reserved for men and engaged in active resistance strategies. Employing a spatial regression discontinuity, we explore the enduring impact of this exposure to forced cotton cultivation on present-day human and social capital, focusing specifically on rural southern Mozambique. Our estimation strategy relies on the arbitrarily defined historical borders of the concessions, which reflected the tendency of concessionaires to absorb as much territory as possible, often ignoring agronomic conditions. Drawing on bespoke individual-level survey data collected along the concession border, we find lower educational outcomes among women in former concession areas. However, this is counterbalanced by positive effects on social capital, in the form of higher levels of civil participation, more progressive attitudes towards gender norms, and an increased presence of women in leadership positions. These results suggest that exogenous ruptures that push women outside traditional boundaries can help to reinforce their role in society.
Topic:: History, Women, Colonialism, Human Capital, Social Capital, Forced Labor, and Cotton
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

174. Keys for sustaining Tanzania’s economic development

Author:: Oliver Morrissey and Maureen Were
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Sustainable economic development hinges on the ability of firms and households to maintain growth and wellbeing. How have Tanzania’s firms and households performed in recent decades, and what policies can improve their resilience against future shocks?
Topic:: Economy, Economic Development, Sustainability, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

175. What traders know: the (mis)perceptions of formal and informal cross-border traders

Author:: Paolo Falco and Eleanor Wiseman
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: ross-border traders face a choice between official and unofficial border crossings. The latter allow them to evade taxes, but expose them to other risks, such as bribes, fines, and arrest. We investigate the perceptions of cross-border traders about the risks of trading officially vs unofficially at the border between Kenya and Uganda. We find that traders overestimate the risks of trading officially relative to the same risks when trading unofficially. In reality, the measured risks of trading through the official border are lower.
Topic:: Borders, Risk, Trade, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: Uganda, Kenya, and Africa

176. Watts happening to work? The labour market effects of South Africa’s electricity crisis

Author:: Haroon Bhorat and Timothy Köhler
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Frequent electricity outages threaten to impede the benefits of expanded access achieved by many developing countries in recent decades. A large literature documents these negative effects, however almost none consider labour market effects. This paper merges labour force survey microdata with high-frequency electricity supply and demand data to provide the first estimates of the relationships between outages and labour market outcomes in South Africa, a country characterized by frequent, severe outages referred to as load shedding. Exploiting temporal variation in outage incidence and intensity, we find that load shedding is associated with significantly lower employment rates, working hours, and earnings on average. Employment appears more sensitive relative to intensive margin outcomes, threatening job creation and preservation efforts. These negative relationships, however, are not evident for low levels of load shedding, but their strength markedly increases with load shedding intensity. We document further heterogeneity by firm size and industry, highlighting the vulnerability of jobs in manufacturing. Overall, our findings suggest that the South African labour market is largely insensitive to relatively low levels of load shedding; however, high levels appear especially costly.
Topic:: Employment, Economy, Electricity, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

177. Market power and merger control in South Africa

Author:: C. Friedrich Kreuser, Michael Kilumelume, and Rulof Burger
Publication Date:: 05-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: We estimate structural, materials, and labour markups for the South African economy at the three-digit industry level for 2012–19. The fall in structural labour and materials markups found for the numerical majority of industries are generally isolated to smaller industries, with industries accounting for a higher proportion of sales generally experiencing smaller downward shifts. We show that materials-based markups are increasing over this period. Upward markup pressure in structural and labour markups are primarily driven by compositional shifts of surviving firms, while materials markup growth is driven by the average firm in a given sector. We show that merger intensity is positively related to structural markup growth, with a 1% increase in the proportion of cumulative mergers over 2013–18 being related to around a 0.27% increase in structural markup growth over the period from 2012 to 2019. We find that large vertical mergers are positively related to structural and materials markup growth while being negatively related to labour markup growth. Large horizontal mergers generally increase labour and structural markups.
Topic:: Markets, Economy, Industry, and Mergers and Acquisitions
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

178. Climate change prioritization in low-income and developing countries

Author:: Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Henry Evans
Publication Date:: 01-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The World Bank’s 2023 document Evolving the World Bank Group’s Mission, Operations, and Resources: A Roadmap, otherwise known as the “evolution roadmap,” sets a laudable goal to shift more focus and action onto climate change in low-income and developing countries (LIDCs). The language used throughout the report clearly reflects the Bank’s shifting priorities. The word “climate” was mentioned forty times in the evolution roadmap document, “poverty” was mentioned forty-two times, and prosperity was mentioned only twenty-one times. This shows a clear paradigm shift that is expanding from the World Bank’s “Twin Goals” of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity to also include issues related to climate change and financing. In the evolution roadmap report, the World Bank Group (WBG) rightly identifies that the world has not only stalled, but regressed in achieving the prosperity and development goals set for this decade. Further, the WBG identifies that LIDCs are not prepared to face the development challenges of the modern world. One of the key development issues the WBG identifies is climate change, which has an outsized impact on LIDCs. In this regard, the WBG has already created frameworks to engage climate issues in LIDCs. The WBG’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDR) offer a comprehensive resource to support development and climate objectives at the country level. These public reports empower governments, private sector investors, and citizens to prioritize resilience and adaptation and reduce emissions without compromising broader development objectives. These goals can be achieved, the WBG estimates, with an investment averaging 1.4 percent of a given country’s gross domestic product (GDP)— though in some low-income countries that number can be between 5 percent and 10 percent. While the CCDR gives nations the tools to achieve climate objectives without significantly compromising development, it does not bridge the gap between the increasing focus of the WBG and the developed world on climate change and the real priorities of LIDCs.
Topic:: Climate Change, Developing World, Economy, Economic Growth, Inclusion, and Prioritization
Political Geography:: Africa, Indo-Pacific, and Americas

179. Digital services for e-government: opportunities for a future 2.5 billion African demographic market

Author:: Nii Simmonds
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In partnership with Africa Development Solutions (ADS) Group, the Africa Center released a report on “Digital services for e-government: Opportunities for a future 2.5 billion African demographic market” by Atlantic Council, GeoTech Nonresident Senior Fellow, Nii Simmonds. This report argues that e-government solutions have the potential to revolutionize service delivery across the African continent. E-government services refers to the process of providing technology-enabled public services. With Africa’s population projected to reach 2.5 billion people by 2050, nearly one-quarter of the world’s population, countries like Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of Congo will need to strengthen their government and infrastructure to manage the administration of critical services. As the middle class continues to expand, so will the demand for access to everyday services such as healthcare, renewing a driver’s license, and filing tax returns. This report highlights the potential for growth in African markets through e-governance and the importance having strong policies and frameworks in place to secure data. Additionally, the report offers case studies on Estonia, Canada, and India, three countries that have made tremendous commitment to bridging the gap between citizens and government through digital service delivery. With key recommendations for institutions ranging from African governments and regional bodies to DFIs and private sector companies, it is clear that each have an important role to play in the digitization of public services in Africa.
Topic:: Government, Markets, Economy, Business, and E-Government
Political Geography:: Africa

180. The missing piece: Political parties are critical to democracy in Africa

Author:: Santiago Stocker, Patrick Quirk, and Dan Scaduto
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In 2024, as many as seventeen countries across Africa, with a total population of nearly 300 million people, will hold national elections. These electoral processes are consequential because whether they are free, fair, and transparent will help determine if the troubling trend in several countries across the continent of democratic regression, military coups, or political instability worsens—or ebbs and begins to reverse, as was recently demonstrated in Senegal. The stakes are clearly high in these contests, which will occur in the so-called year of elections wherein more than four billion people globally are eligible to cast ballots. While the elections are important to Africa’s democratic trajectory, they are not single-handedly determinative of it. Strong and institutionalized political parties are also key to the future of democracy on the continent; however, policymakers have not afforded this key institution much attention or associated resources. For example, the US’s national security strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa does not reference strengthening political parties despite the document’s emphasis on democracy promotion. Further, the Biden administration’s Summits for Democracy—the third of which took place in March 2024—have not included commitments from participating governments (the United States included) to strengthen political parties. Robust political parties inform whether a political system delivers for citizens, provide a key link between citizens and their government, and foster measurable resilience against democratic erosion. For these and other reasons, therefore, political parties as a core institution of democracy will help chart the continent’s future, both in terms of freedom and prosperity. This piece analyzes the state of political parties in sub-Saharan Africa and uses Atlantic Council Freedom and Prosperity Indexes data and other sources to show why parties are essential to democratic progress. It examines this argument through four case studies and concludes with a path forward for re-centering democracy assistance work in Africa to shore up this critical component.
Topic:: Elections, Political Parties, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:: Africa and East Africa

181. Strategies for Assessing Triple Nexus Initiatives and Integrating Peace Aspects – Insights from Niger

Author:: Christina Plesner Volkdal
Publication Date:: 02-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: The Triple Nexus approach represents a paradigm shift in how international organizations, including UNICEF, address complex crises that span humanitarian, development, and peace dimensions. UNICEF must navigate the delicate balance between adhering to the humanitarian principles of neutrality, impartiality, independence, and humanity while engaging in development and peace-building activities that may require aligning with government policies and engaging in politically sensitive contexts. There is a significant challenge in developing metrics and methodologies to measure the synergies and outcomes of the Triple Nexus approach effectively. This includes quantifying how initiatives contribute to peace interacting with humanitarian and development outcomes. UNICEF's approach in Niger, implementing food security policies to respond to humanitarian needs while simultaneously operating as a development program, holds the potential to positively impact peace in the region, thus aligning with the Triple Nexus framework.
Topic:: Development, International Organization, Food Security, Crisis Management, and UNICEF
Political Geography:: Africa and Niger

182. How Has South Africa’s Membership of BRICS Intensified Uneven and Combined Development in the Country and Beyond?

Author:: Sinan Baran
Publication Date:: 06-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The recent African scramble has resulted in uneven and combined development (UCD) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) throughout the 21st century due to unequal exchange. South Africa plays a sub-imperial role in this scramble in SSA. It both exploits and is exploited. The mining industry in South Africa has attracted interest from colonial powers, English-speaking businesses, and foreign investors, making it a highly lucrative sector. Furthermore, most black South Africans have been employed in the mining industry since the late 19th century. Over the past 25 years, the African National Congress government has utilised the mining industry to achieve economic transformation through black economic empowerment policies. This study proposes that the mining sector in South Africa is responsible for the ongoing UCD, despite receiving new investments and empowerment policies. South Africa’s inclusion in BRICS has broadened its range of international partners beyond its traditional Western or African counterparts. However, South Africa’s decision to join the BRICS group in 2011 has not yet yielded the expected transformation in the country’s economy and growth. As a result, it is uncertain whether South Africa’s BRICS membership has addressed the country’s persistent problem of UCD. This study argues that South Africa’s BRICS membership has exacerbated UCD in the country. This study proposes that Trotsky’s UCD analytical framework is useful for analysing South Africa’s policy choice to join BRICS, which strengthens its sub-imperial role.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Mining, Industry, BRICS, Economic Transformation, Unequal Exchange, Sub-imperialism, and Transnational Capital
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

183. The perception of climate change in Senegal coastal areas

Author:: Serigne Momar Sarr, Adama Faye, Dibor Sarr Faye, and Thierno Sarr
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The cognitive dimension of climate change is a subject that is rarely analysed. However, communities’ endogenous adaptation strategies are heavily dependent on their perception of the risks linked to climate change. An analysis of individuals’ representations and perceptions of climate change makes it possible to improve the ability to adapt of territories confronted by it. In this analysis, the relations of interdependence between perception, knowledge and adaptation strategies show how communities living in the coastal area of Senegal interpret climate change, in particular in the fields of agriculture, water resources and coastal areas. Considering these representations favours the co-construction and acceptability of the adaptation strategies. It enables state and non state actors to better understand the communities’ needs as regards public climate policies, whereas the media can identify levers they can use to devise effective public information campaigns on the climate, in order to reduce the vulnerability of communities that face climate hazards.
Topic:: Climate Change, Risk, Adaptation, and Perception
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

184. Racism, Xenophobia and Solidarity in Migration and Mobility Politics: Does COVID-19 make any difference?

Author:: Mojúbàolú Olufúnké Okome
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Ìrìnkèrindò: A Journal of African Migration
Institution:: Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:: This issue was originally planned to center on the COVID-19 pandemic, intended for publication at its peak. However, one of the lingering effects of the pandemic was the prolonged production timeline of this issue.
Topic:: Migration, Solidarity, Mobility, Xenophobia, COVID-19, and Racism
Political Geography:: Africa

185. Illusion or Reality: A Recontextualized Perspective of ‘the American Dream’ in Imbolo Mbue’s Behold the Dreamers

Author:: Elizabeth Adesunmbo Omotayo
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:: ‘The American Dream’ motif is one that has been deployed in productions of American literary icons for centuries with different outcomes for the characters portrayed. Despite a plethora of fiction being devoted to the motif from African migrants’ perspective, not many studies have explored the actualization of the Dream by characters in such texts. In Behold the Dreamers (2016), Imbolo Mbue presents the lived experiences of new African diasporans. This study looks at the outcomes of the quest for ‘the Dream’ by Mbue’s characters, through a mimetic reading of her novel and based on Harold Bloom’s notion of ‘Party of Hope’ and ‘the American Nightmare’ as exemplified in the treatments of the Dream motif by several writers. Mbue, while presenting the paradoxical notions of illusion and reality of the Dream, also portrays struggles by both citizens and migrants, to achieve the tangible and intangible of its ideals. Findings reveal that essentialization and discrimination inhibit the attainment of the Dream by many African migrants; that the attainment of college education is a huge factor in the realization of the tangible of its ideals, while the attainment of the intangible seems illusory for many migrants. The conclusion is that several factors prevent the realization of the Dream by many contemporary African migrants.
Topic:: Migration, Immigration, Literary Analysis, American Dream, and Motif
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

186. Economic Forced Migration in Southern Africa: The Case of Malawi

Author:: Cobbener Wilfred Sungani and Pascal Newbourne Mwale
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:: As with other world regions, free market capitalism or the neoliberal system has caused numerous individuals and families to lose access to viable income-generating bases in Southern Africa. This places them in a socio-economically abject and precarious position. Resource-poor and unemployed Southern Africans have for a long time been forced to migrate to less unstable economies within the region. South Africa continues to be the most attractive destination for most poor and destitute Southern Africans. These people are called ‘economic refugees’ in the dominant literature. Hitherto, the plight of the Malawian ‘economic refugee’ in South Africa has not attracted much scholarly attention. Drawing on the interdisciplinary methodologies of African social philosophy and African social history, we present the case of Malawian economic refugees in South Africa. Drawing upon ideas derived from Immanuel Kant’s analysis in Perpetual Peace (1917), this paper argues for the promotion of the spirit of fraternity between South Africans and Malawian migrants
Topic:: Immanuel Kant, Forced Migration, Economic Refugee, and Fraternity
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Malawi

187. Investigating the Vulnerability of Foreign Migrants Businesses in Durban, South Africa, During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:: Ayobami Popoola, Hangwelani Magidimisha-Chipingu, and Lovemore Chipungu
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:: There is lack of empirical evidence on the vulnerability of immigrant businesses in Durban, South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic. To investigate this, data was collected during the pandemic to evaluate the vulnerability of immigrant businesses. The research adopted the quantitative approach, with a sample of fifty-three (53) Durban city immigrants small-scale business owners, to examine their business vulnerability. A linear regression model and correlation were used to analyse the data. The findings show that business insecurity increased immigrants' business vulnerability. Thus, without underestimating the COVID-19 pandemic effect, it was evident that urban insecurity resulting in xenophobic tendencies and incidences is the main factor/determinant/predictor that increases the vulnerability of foreign businesses. The study suggests that the documentation and analysis of foreign immigrants' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic can contribute to understanding the effects and consequences for immigrants across the globe. The study contributes to debates on immigrants' inclusion and seeks to fill the gap in the literature on immigrant business experience and survival in host communities.
Topic:: Migration, Immigrants, COVID-19, and Business Vulnerability
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

188. The Complexities of Transnational Childcare Practices among Ghanaian Families in a Context of Global Pandemic

Author:: Patricia Serwaa Afrifa
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:: Childcare remains central in all human societies. This is because it is in children that humans invest their immortality and ensure the continuity of humanity. This partly explains the social collectivism that is brought to bear in childcare to the extent that in some indigenous African societies, the popular axiom is: "It takes a village to raise to raise a child". While the forces of modernity, neoliberalism, and the near-collapse of the extended family system across the world, including indigenous societies, have negatively impacted collective childcare, parents continue to devise creative strategies to nurture their children. The members of the Ghanaian diaspora in the United States of America (USA) often extended invitations to older members of their families, including their mothers, to join them across the Atlantic to help with nurturing their children. This practice of transnational migration of child carers was very efficient in helping children to access Ghanaian cultural values and languages, until the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. With the outbreak of the pandemic, one way of controlling its totalizing effect was the imposition of social distance protocols, which at the peak of the pandemic involved a global ban on all means of human crisscrossing the world. This implied that most diasporic Ghanaians had their family-dependent source of childcare supply significantly cut. This phenomenon inspired the paper. Through in-depth interviews with selected Ghanaian families in the USA through social media and phones, this paper explores the impact of the ban on transnational travel on childcare practices among Ghanaian diaspora in the USA. The key findings of the study suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not only cripple the economies of the world, it also blocked the alternatives available to Ghanaians to receive an additional source of care for their children.
Topic:: Diaspora, Family, COVID-19, Strategy, Migrants, and Child Care
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

189. Accelerating GBVF Response Through Community-Led Platforms – Lessons from the Scorecard of the Localisation of the National Strategic Plan on Gender-Based Violence and Femicide

Author:: Gugu Resha and Cathy-Ann Potgieter
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: his policy brief highlights the findings from the scorecard on the localisation of the NSP-GBVF, emphasising the areas of priority for all state and community-based actors as they continue to implement to objectives of the policy. This brief is intended to be used by organisations and community leaders working to strengthen efforts against GBVF, service providers providing protection, prevention and support to victims of GBV, stewards of safety and gender equality in public institutions, police representatives, CPF coordinators and business leaders seeking to make positive contribution to the efforts against GBVF towards gender justice and a violence-free South Africa.
Topic:: Crime, Gender Based Violence, Violence, Legislation, Domestic Violence, Femicide, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

190. The abuse of a motion of no confidence in Lesotho: Triggers and impact

Author:: Mokete Pherudi
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The article notes that the motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister (PM) in Lesotho is provided for in the Constitution, but different political leaders have abused it on several occasions for various party political and subjective reasons. This article, therefore, explores the abuse of this provision, its triggers, and how they have impacted the political stability and socioeconomic situation in the country. Lesotho is a constitutional democracy governed by a constitution adopted in 1993. One of the provisions of this Constitution is Section 87,1 which deals with a ‘motion of no confidence’. Constitutionally, the government must, at all times, enjoy the confidence of the National Assembly, and Section 87(2) of the Constitution embodies the principle that: The King shall appoint as Prime Minister the member of the National Assembly who appears to the Council of State to be the leader of the political party or coalition of political parties that will command the support of a majority of the members of the National Assembly.2 Similarly, the Constitution gives Parliament the power to withdraw confidence from the government of the day. The passing of the motion of no confidence requires a simple majority, and any member of Parliament can propose it.3 The only precondition for a motion of no confidence in government is the name of a member of the National Assembly for the King to appoint in place of the PM.4
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Constitution, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Lesotho

191. Enhancing synergies between peacebuilding and human rights interventions of the Africa Union (AU)

Author:: Ojot Miru Ojulu
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Maintaining international peace and promoting the development and protection of human rights are three pillars upon which the United Nations (UN) is founded. This innate relationship between peacebuilding and human rights has been underscored several times by the UN. For instance, addressing the UN Security Council on 18 April 2017, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, ‘upholding human rights is a crucial element of [conflict] prevention’ and ‘human rights are intrinsically linked to sustaining peace.’1 For the African Union (AU), the promotion of peace, security, and stability, on the one hand, and the promotion and protection of human and peoples’ rights, on the other hand, are among its key objectives.2 Despite this intrinsic relationship between peacebuilding and human rights, less attention has been given to mainstreaming this relationship into the decisions, interventions, and institutions of the AU. This article aims to shed light on the nexus between peace and human rights and why it is important for sustainable peace on the continent. In the first section, the article will analyse the peacebuilding and human rights nexus, and then the second section will zoom in on key peacebuilding and human rights frameworks under the AU. Finally, the article will highlight how peacebuilding and human rights could be better integrated under the AU frameworks and operations.
Topic:: Development, Human Rights, African Union, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa

192. SADC and election-related conflicts in Zimbabwe: An assessment and recommendations

Author:: Tinashe Sithole
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article evaluates the role of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) in resolving electoral conflicts in Zimbabwe, emphasising the organisation’s constrained enforcement capacity and reliance on diplomatic strategies. The discussion delves into the SADC and African Union (AU) institutional structures and preparedness to manage such conflicts, assessing their effectiveness in promoting democratic governance standards within the region. The author contends that, despite articulating governance norms, SADC’s intervention efforts are hindered by enforcement limitations and solidarity rooted in liberation movements, necessitating a reliance on moral persuasion and diplomatic tactics. The consequence is the violation of the SADC guidelines1 and principles governing democratic elections. Since 1985, Zimbabwe has faced election-related conflicts, with an escalating trend since the 2000s. The AU and SADC, as continental brokers, often intervene belatedly, lacking coercive authority. SADC’s coercive authority involves sanctions and military intervention, contingent on Member States’ consensus and collective commitment. Despite normative frameworks, there are allegations of rigging in Zimbabwe’s elections. The crucial question is whether SADC can effectively prevent civilian deaths in the electoral process, given that in the 2018 and 2023 disputes, the Responsibility to Protect was solely entrusted to the state. The article concludes by emphasising the significance of interpreting election-related conflict violations for adequate SADC attention and intervention. The historical lack of SADC intervention in violent election incidents across SADC countries has contributed to large-scale violence in subsequent instances, exemplified by Zimbabwe’s 2018 and 2023 elections.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Elections, Conflict, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

193. A security dilemma during Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration in the Lake Chad Basin

Author:: Mariana Llorens Zabala
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The security crisis in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) region has been of great concern since its turning point in 2009 due to the expansion of Boko Haram (BH) as one of the deadliest terrorist groups in the continent. This crisis is characterised by complex causes, including a development deficit, the lack of a social contract between the state and the population, weak governance structures, and a consequent violent extremist insurgency that has emerged and grown from and within the instability. While the efforts of those tasked to fight against the spread of these threats are numerous and commendable, much still needs to be done to ensure a safe and secure environment for all populations in the region. Through kinetic operations and non-kinetic interventions, the four governments of Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, with the support of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC), the African Union (AU), United Nations (UN) agencies, and other critical partners have scaled up their interventions in the region. The scaled-up interventions include the Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) processes as part of the Regional Strategy for the Stabilisation, Recovery and Resilience (RS-SRR) of the Boko Haram-affected areas. However, it is common knowledge that these four countries are faced with challenges in the handling and treatment of individuals associated with BH – and other affiliated groups – when they surrender or exit these groups. First and foremost, these challenges include the lack of pre-conditions for traditional DDR to take place. A further challenge is the proliferation of arms and ammunition in the region among the civilian population due to a lack of security and safety provision.
Topic:: Security, Counter-terrorism, Disarmament, Boko Haram, African Union, Demobilization, and Reintegration
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Lake Chad Basin

194. Resource-based conflict early-warning system in the Hammer, Nyangatom, and Dassanech community of South Omo, Ethiopia

Author:: Asmare Shetahun Alemneh
Publication Date:: 03-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Conflict refers to actual or perceived incompatibility of interests, goals, and actions in relationships between individuals or groups. It is a dynamic process where attitudes, behaviours, contexts and structures are constantly changing and influencing one another.1 Conflict in pastoral areas has long been linked to the need to gain control of scarce and strategic resources, particularly water and pasture. However, the key issues here are not merely scarcity, which, as highlighted above, has always been a determining feature of life in the rangelands, but also the increased inability to manage scarcity.2 In the Horn of Africa, there are common factors contributing to conflict and violence within and between pastoralists, such as inappropriate government policies, socio-economic and political marginalisation, inadequate land tenure policies, insecurity, intensified cattle rustling, proliferation of small arms and light weapons, weakened traditional governance in pastoral areas, vulnerability to climatic variability, and competition with wildlife.3 In Ethiopia, the pattern and forms of the recent violent conflicts in pastoral areas indicate that they have been involved in resource control and utilisation competition.4 Conflicts are a common phenomenon in the South Omo Zone pastoralist and agro-pastoral communities due mainly to resource competition (pasture and water-points) and negative perceptions.5 However, conflict, by its nature, is dynamic; the drivers or causes and their nature are changeable through time due to many natural and human-made phenomena. Accordingly, an in-depth investigation of natural resource-based conflict and its dynamics in the South Omo Zone in Ethiopia is the focus of this article. This article is based on a study conducted in the Dassanech, Hammer and Nyangatom Woreda collective pastoralist community, and based on empirical primary and secondary data sources. Primary data were collected through semi-structured interviews, document analysis and focus group discussion (FGD).
Topic:: Security, Environment, Conflict, Pastoralism, Peace, Competition, Early Warning, and Resources
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

195. Empowering young voices: Using action research to combat xenophobia through children’s initiatives

Author:: Ruth Nyamadzawo
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Since 1994, South Africa has seen an influx of refugees, asylum seekers, skilled professionals, and socio-economic migrants seeking security and better opportunities. However, this has led to challenges, including xenophobic violence. Despite efforts by civic organisations and the government, the problem persists. Therefore, there is a need for a mindset of peace to address the recurring violence. This article is concerned with exploring the problem of recurring xenophobia in South Africa by reviewing the approaches that have been followed in response to this phenomenon and proposing an alternative response of involving children in peacebuilding measures. It highlights the importance of empowering children and helping them develop the capacity to become agents of change, and raising them as peacebuilders in the communities where they reside. Underlining the role of educating for peace in transforming human society, it is believed that peace workshops could contribute to preparing young generations for sustaining positive relationships with those considered the ‘other,’ and thus consolidating peace in South Africa.
Topic:: Children, Discrimination, Youth, Xenophobia, Empowerment, Stigmatization, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

196. Prevention of water conflicts in Central Africa and peacebuilding through transboundary waters

Author:: Michèle Désirée Nken née Okala Abega
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: In the heart of Central Africa, the management of transboundary water resources stands as a pivotal arena where the complexities of national interests converge with the imperative of conflict prevention and regional peacekeeping. The equitable distribution of shared rivers, lakes, and aquifers necessitates collaborative frameworks to navigate the intricacies of interdependence among riparian states. This article delves into the nuanced landscape of transboundary water governance, with a keen focus on the regulatory measures implemented in the Lake Chad and Congo Basins. Emphasising the integral role of community legal instruments in mitigating potential conflicts, the discussion extends to the challenges that hinder comprehensive adherence to international water conventions. Against this backdrop, the narrative unfolds to reveal the dynamic interplay between national interests and the overarching goal of regional harmony. As we traverse this exploration, the article not only sheds light on the emerging trends in Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in Central Africa but also proposes strategies for conflict prevention and the promotion of enduring peace within the region’s shared water ecosystems.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Natural Resources, Water, Governance, Regulation, Borders, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa, Central Africa, Lake Chad Basin, and Congo Basin

197. The ruralisation of violence and the criminalisation of conflict in Nigeria

Author:: Joseph Ochogwu
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article interrogates to what extent rural spaces are affected by criminal recruitment and the perpetuation of violent conflict and crime. It further examines the drivers of the ruralisation of violence and how it affects the nature of violent conflict in Nigeria. It identifies the impact of the ruralisation of violence and criminalisation on conflict resolution and peacebuilding efforts, as well as exploring existing security measures, law enforcement measures, and community engagement programmes to promote sustainable peace, especially in rural Nigeria. Adeleke et al.1 note that historically, rural areas, by their very nature, are known for social cohesion and rural dwellers are closely knitted such that there are shared emotions, strong family bonds, religious ties, and mutual trust, indirectly fostering effective crime control in rural areas. Ezejughu2 states that urban areas have been centres known for intense organised crime, with high levels of urban poverty, congestion, unemployment, and moral decadence contributing to violent crimes like murder, armed robbery, kidnapping, terrorism, and high rural-urban migration. This, in turn, has an impact on crime and conflict. Today, our understanding of rural communities has significantly evolved in Nigeria. They have become unsafe and contested spaces marked by limited State presence, inadequate infrastructure, and scarce resources. According to Ojo et al.,3 these conditions create fertile ground for violent conflicts and the recruitment of conflict participants. The absence of effective governance and security forces further exacerbates the situation, allowing extremist groups or criminal organisations to exploit the vacuum of state authority, thereby contributing to the cycle of instability in rural Nigeria. In 2020, Gustin and Slavic4 highlighted that rural regions, once primarily engaged in agriculture, have diversified their functions. Presently, rural areas are multifunctional and, unfortunately, have also become hotspots for criminal activities and violent conflicts in Nigeria. A typical example is the northern region of Nigeria, where there is an increased occurrence of terrorism, banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping.
Topic:: Conflict, Violence, Rural, Recruitment, and Criminalization
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

198. The nexus between horizontal inequalities and violent conflicts: A case study of Kenya

Author:: Sylvan Odidi
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Horizontal inequalities are defined as inequalities in economic, social or political dimensions or cultural status between culturally defined groups. Relationships between horizontal inequalities and conflict were first discussed by Frances Stewart in the Framework of Collaborative Project Series on socio-economic causes and the impact of humanitarian emergencies and internal conflicts.1 It is instructive to note that if horizontal inequalities endure over generations, it is likely to generate resentment and, subsequently, conflicts. Therefore, the duration, nature, and potency of horizontal inequalities are vital in comprehending conflict dynamics manifesting in societies. Contemporary conflict studies posit that horizontal inequalities result in conflict situations where they intersect with significant group identities.2 In addition, in circumstances where inequalities between various groups are large, the likelihood of conflict is high.3 In this regard, Stewart observes that horizontal inequalities lie at the centre of most violent conflicts in developing nations.4 Arguably, Kenya falls under the category of countries ranked as unequal globally. The distinguishing characteristic of Kenyan society lies in its regional and ethnic disparity in wealth spread among citizens.5 The degree of horizontal inequalities in Kenya typifies the interplay of ethnicity and politics as well as polarised loyalties among key institutional players. 6Existing horizontal inequalities in Kenya have culminated in violent conflicts. These conflicts lower economic productivity, weaken the capacity of institutions to provide essential services, deplete existing resources, and lead to loss of food production as well as capital flight. Ending these conflicts remains a major challenge for relevant stakeholders. This is partly due to the failure of existing leadership structures and institutions to address development challenges, equitably share resources, and promote peaceful coexistence of all communities in Kenya. Most individuals elected and/or appointed to serve Kenyans in leadership positions have failed to entrench the principles of fairness and inclusiveness in the distribution of the country’s resources since independence. While various Kenyan administrative regimes have instituted measures to minimise conflicts, such as the establishment of peace-building and conflict management policies, conflicts of varied forms have persisted. It is against this backdrop that this study seeks to explore the nexus between horizontal inequalities and conflict in the context of Kenya.
Topic:: Governance, Inequality, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

199. The Western Sahara conflict on an evolving African security landscape

Author:: Vasileios Symeonidis
Publication Date:: 04-2024
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The Western Sahara conflict has been described as a ‘frozen conflict’ and as ‘decolonisation’s last stand.’ Despite the multiple ceasefires throughout its history, the conflict has not been fully resolved. Since 1974, Western Sahara has been on the shortlist of non-self-governing territories. However, it is the only one on the list that has not condoned this status. The Polisario Front spent 50 years fighting for the independence of the Sahrawi Arab Republic from Morocco, mostly using arms and guerrilla warfare. This period of violence was followed by a ceasefire between the two stakeholders. Nonetheless, in 2020, Morocco’s response to the Sahrawi protests resulted in a resumption of fighting by the Polisario Front, essentially reopening ‘Pandora’s Box’ and showing that, despite the ceasefire, a permanent solution is urgently needed. This would need to happen within the broader African security landscape, which is currently experiencing a shift amidst the weakening of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, the growing presence of various private military companies (PMC), and the emerging role of countries such as Russia and Türkiye in African conflict situations. Considering the aforementioned changes, this article seeks to assess whether these shifts in the African security landscape will influence the situation in Western Sahara by maintaining the status quo or revitalising the efforts to resolve or exacerbate the existing tensions.
Topic:: Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Western Sahara

200. Perspectives on the 1972–1973 massacre and post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Burundi

Author:: Isidore Nsengiyumva
Publication Date:: 07-2024
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: How do we repair and reconcile a society broken multiple times by years of political violence and cyclic mass atrocity events? Reconciliation processes in post-conflict societies tend to favour state-led peace processes to aid individuals and communities alike to heal, make sense of the past while also imagining and forging an interdependent future together. The Burundi Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), established in 2014, has the mandate to investigate past crimes and mass violence events dating from 1885 to the 4 December 2008 ceasefire with the aim of aiding truth-telling, reconciliation and transitional justice. The paper comments on how the TRC shapes ongoing healing, reconciliation and transitional justice efforts in post-conflict Burundi. This paper uses desk-based research to draw insights from documented works and reports of the TRC between 2018 and 2022. The TRC’s findings sparked multiple narratives and public discourse in the Senate which further led to the re-examination of the 1972‒1973 massacre, the legacy of colonisation and its impact in cementing ethnic divisions that led to cyclic mass violence in Burundi.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Colonialism, Violence, Reconciliation, Narrative, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS