Search

Begin New Search Political Geography Africa

101. Who Will Cities Be For? Inequality, Housing, and the Future of African Urbanization

Author:
Paula Sevilla Núñez
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
As urban areas absorb most of the population growth in the upcoming decades, urbanization presents unique opportunities to transform a society’s economic, social, and political landscape. How cities perform in these dimensions will determine whether societies can become more peaceful, just, and inclusive, and be effectively prepared to respond to future crises. In an urban age shaped by inequalities, policies on housing can either be a catalyzer of equitable and sustainable development or contribute to a vicious cycle of exclusion that hinders governments’ ability to address today’s global challenges. Approaching the issue of housing from a purely technical lens overlooks its political nature, wherein the tension between ensuring residents’ right to housing and promoting real estate financialization for economic gain encapsulates broader questions such as who belongs in a city, or a society’s vision of its own future. Housing is therefore not just a technical or financial issue, but also one of governance. Two-thirds of African cities that will exist in 2050 have yet to be built. Making space to house these new urban residents by building new homes presents an opportunity to do it with a people-centered approach. Effective housing governance requires dismantling past structures that perpetuate exclusionary practices; challenging simplistic narratives of urban glory that end up promoting the financialization of housing; and building coalitions that work for a renewed social contract through access to housing.
Topic:
Urbanization, Inequality, Cities, and Housing
Political Geography:
Africa

102. Continuity and Change: Extremist-used Arms in Mali

Author:
Holger Anders
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Mali has faced more than a decade of armed violence perpetrated by extremists, resulting in thousands of victims among national and international armed forces, UN peacekeepers, and civilians. Continuity and Change: Extremist-used Arms in Mali—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—investigates the arms, ammunition, explosives, and other materiel used in extremist attacks in Mali from 2015 to 2022, and the sources and pathways through which they were obtained.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Violent Extremism, Weapons, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, and Sahel

103. Climate Adaptation Finance: The Gap Between Needs and Resources Continues to Grow

Author:
Jamal Saghir and Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:
Our recent research on the state and trends of climate adaptation finance needs, gaps, and trends globally and in Africa provides new insights that call for greater urgency in adaptation action and financing. The global adaptation funding gap continues to widen because the understanding of needs shows much higher levels of investment required, and the rate of increase of adaptation financing is insufficient. In this policy brief, we review global climate finance trends, the growing funding gap in climate adaptation finance globally and in Africa, financial instruments used for climate adaptation, and challenges and recommendations to improve the tracking of climate adaptation finance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Climate Finance, International Development, Funding, and Adaptation
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

104. Reconsidering the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict and Security Concerns in Africa

Author:
Ndifon Neji, Immaculata Obaji-Akpet, Michael Otu, Joseph Ebegbulem, Samuel Edet, Ayuk Awunghe, and Nwosu Stanley
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a conflict that has transformed international relations through drastic impacts on policymaking, energy politics, and alliances. Such impacts have produced severe multi-dimensional consequences for African countries that have yet to be sufficiently interrogated in the literature. In response to this gap, this paper examined the security implications of the conflict for African countries to offer a comprehensive analysis that considers the intersection of the conflict with contemporary economic, human, social, and political issues confronting Africa. In discourse using a qualitative approach and rooted in a theoretical perspective drawn from the Copenhagen School, the paper underlined the security implications as evident in the areas of food security and governance, buttressing that the proxy conflicts and power struggles associated with this war have exacerbated existing challenges related to food availability and interfered with the consolidation of democracy in Africa. The paper concluded that the war’s multi-dimensional impact potentially compounds political instability vectors. It generates dynamics capable of eroding social cohesion and fomenting social unrest in Africa, meriting its designation as an issue of great concern to African policymakers.
Topic:
Security, Human Security, Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and Social Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Ukraine

105. The End of Uganda’s Refugee Model, or Just a ‘Transition’?

Author:
Kristof Titeca and Roos Derrix
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Uganda is lauded world-wide as a model for refugee-hosting: It hosts nearly 1.7 million refugees, the highest in Africa, taking in refugees from its neighbouring countries. It also offers them free access to a plot of land, as well as public services. This refugee model is however under severe pressure, due to reduced donor funding. This is largely for political and ideological reasons: donor are increasingly unwilling to finance a protracted crisis such as a Ugandan one; a process which was further accelerated by the outbreak of major humanitarian crises such as Ukraine and Gaza. In this context, funding for the Ugandan refugee crisis is shifting from humanitarian to development funding, but for now without any major donor willing to foot this bill. This situation shows a major friction in the geopolitical status(es) of the country: on the one hand, it is a key-ally for the West as a ‘regional host country’, in which refugees can be hosted in their home regions, and are prevented from migrating to the West. On the other hand, Uganda is experiencing rapid democratic backsliding, manifested by measures such as the brutal anti-gay law or skyrocketing corruption, making continued engagement difficult – including for the much-lauded refugee model.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Crisis Management, and Donors
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

106. What’s Brewing in Benin? Security Collaboration in the Gulf of Guinea

Author:
Nina Wilén
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Gulf of Guinea has drawn attention from Western states in recent years due both to increasing spillover of violent extremism from the Sahel and because of Sahelian military juntas’ shift of security partners from Western countries to Russian actors. Indeed, as three Sahelian states experienced five coups during the past years and gradually ousted their former security partners, starting with France, followed by the UN (in Mali) and the EU and the US (in Niger), the Gulf of Guinea countries’ relative stability and geopolitical positions have attracted new attention from external actors. Benin, neighboring both Burkina Faso and Niger, saw attacks by jihadist groups crossing the borders in the North of the country already in 2019. Although expanding relatively slowly, between 2021 and 2024, the number of attacks grew, forcing the government to invest more resources in counter terrorism efforts and reflect on more immediate ways to counter the expansion. Out of the Gulf of Guinea countries, Benin has so far been the hardest hit, and recorded a doubling in the number of recorded fatalities (to 173 deaths) over the past year. A figure which remains small in comparison to neighboring Sahel states, but which still indicates an increase. In spite of these attacks and the adoption in 2019 of a new electoral code limiting political opposition parties, Benin has remained relatively democratic and stable. Such stability has attracted old and new security partners to increase collaboration, both to counter terrorism and because of the expulsion from the Sahel countries. The US, France and Belgium have all intensified security collaboration with Benin over the past few years, while the EU has launched a new, regional CSDP initiative in the Gulf of Guinea. African states have also showed interest for Benin, with Rwanda offering to send troops bilaterally for counter terrorism purposes, similar to its operations in Mozambique. This policy brief aims to explore Benin’s security situation and international partnerships in the security domain, while identifying current and future challenges to such collaborations. The conclusion argues that Western and multilateral actors should maintain discrete collaboration but be cautious not to overburden Benin with their presence as absorption of new capabilities and capacities take time, and as a too heavy presence of Western security actors can become a burden rather than an advantage for the government. External actors should also continue to support recent efforts by the authorities to open up the political landscape to maintain its long-standing democratic tradition.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, Sahel, Benin, and Central Africa

107. The Politics behind the EU-Rwanda Deal(s) and its Consequences

Author:
Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On the 14th of October, the news emerged that the EU is in the final stages of a discussion to award €20 million to the Rwandan army for its operations in Mozambique – where it is fighting insurgents in the oil-rich Gabo Delgado province. It would be the second time in two years that the EU awards this amount under the European Peace Facility (EPF): it also did so in December 2022. At that time, the decision was met with anger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as it was already documented by the UN how the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) were supporting the M23 rebellion in Eastern DRC. In the meantime, this support has become clearer, with the last report from the UN Group of Experts from June 2024 extensively documenting the RDF operations with M23 in Eastern DRC. The news of potentially another €20 million is therefore met with anger in Congolese politics and society, primarily directed at the EU. It is a question which puzzles many: why does the EU want to award €20 million to the Rwandan army, in the midst of its violations of international law in Eastern DRC? This piece will unpack this question and reflect on the consequences for the regional dynamics and the EU.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Law, Politics, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Rwanda

108. Uganda’s Chess Game in Eastern DRC: With or Without M23?

Author:
Kristof Titeca
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Uganda has various economic, political and security interests in Eastern DRC. The latter is for example a vital export market for Ugandan products, and an important source of gold, Uganda’s most important export product. In this situation, a careful tactical game is played, in which Kampala seeks to protect these interests in Eastern DRC – for example from Kigali. This does not only involve a clear engagement with Kinshasa, but to a lesser extent also with M23. This is particularly the case because M23 is expanding (and keeping) its territory; creating an incentive for regional actors to engage with them.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

109. The Politics of Food and the Myth of the Self-Reliant Refugee in Uganda

Author:
Nina Soudan
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Changing geopolitical dynamics and a widespread ‘donor reset’ have resulted in reduced refugee assistance funding, compelling World Food Programme to make significant cuts to food assistance. This reduction has coincided with a strategic and theoretical shift towards refugee self-reliance in northern Uganda. While this responsibilisation of refugees has been globally praised as progressive and beneficial, refugees’ settlement experiences have questioned the sustainability of this approach, for whom it works, and under what conditions. This brief argues that WFP’s premature reduction of assistance, driven by the promotion of self-reliance, ultimately pushes refugees into greater hardship, while simultaneously highlighting the flaws in Uganda’s refugee model.
Topic:
Food Security, Geopolitics, Refugees, Donors, and World Food Program (WFP)
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

110. Towards a Comprehensive Mining Strategy for the DRC?

Author:
Erik Kennes
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Former Minister of Mining Willy Kitobo summarizes in a recent book what he considers to be the main problems of the DRC mining sector. He rightly underlines the largely insufficient geological data about the DRC’s mining resources, problems related to the correct implementation of the 2018 mining code, challenges of industrial and artisanal exploitation, and finally the huge environmental problems caused by mining practices in the DRC. While these issues are obviously important, they overlook the national and international political and economic context that frame the choices available to a government in this matter. A narrowing of political to technical problems characterizes the nature of official public debate about the mining sector in the DRC. The strategic choices for the mining sector made by and for the country, on a short, medium and long term, if any, are almost never debated, not only to hide the decisions taken from the public eye, but probably also because the necessary analysis has not been undertaken. Expertise in the academic community for the major part remains technical. Civil society very partially makes up for this gap, but even then, their activity is almost always issue-based and tied to funding for a particular project. Still, civil society for natural resources has developed over the years an impressive level of competence in issues of mining governance. Unfortunately, their expertise is not valued and used beyond the relatively short timeframes they must work in.
Topic:
Civil Society, Natural Resources, Mining, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

111. Rethinking Africa Command

Author:
Mike Sweeney
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
As debate grows over U.S. policy towards Africa, consideration should be given to altering the continent’s status under the Department of Defense’s Unified Command Plan (UCP). Eliminating Africa Command (AFRICOM) under the UCP would both signify a policy shift away from a counterterrorism focus and ease the process of implementing that change within the policymaking bureaucracy. Establishing a three-star subcommand, nested under European Command (EUCOM), would still allow the United States to use force in Africa, when necessary, but would reduce the prominence of military power in U.S. policy toward the continent. AFRICOM and EUCOM essentially share much of their force structure; this unique relationship would facilitate the transition to the proposed three-star subcommand. Altering the U.S. military footprint in Africa should also be considered in the context of any changes to policy and command arrangements. Making specific recommendations at this time is complicated by the opaqueness of the current footprint.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Counter-terrorism, Africa Command (AFRICOM), and European Command (EUCOM)
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

112. Uganda’s Oil Refinery: Gauging the Government’s Stake

Author:
Paul Bagabo and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Uganda’s planned oil refinery will have several benefits for the country, including for its security of fuel supply and balance of payments. The refinery could be reasonably profitable, generating an internal rate of return of 13 percent in a baseline scenario. The government is planning to take a 40 percent stake but may ultimately pay a higher price for this equity than it expects. Even if it borrows to cover its upfront contribution to costs, it will need to divert around $330 million in present value terms from the national budget for loan repayments in the 2030s. This price will increase if downside risks, such as cost overruns or lower global oil prices, materialize. The government can take several steps to increase interest from other investors, including by reducing the risk of cost overruns, ensuring deregulated product prices continue, and providing less risky forms of state support such as tax incentives. These should reduce the need for the government to take a large stake.
Topic:
Oil, Regulation, and Investment
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

113. Guidebook on Nigeria’s Energy Transition

Author:
Tengi George-Ikoli and Nafi Chinery
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
This guidebook serves as a comprehensive reference tool for the Nigerian government, as well as an accountability tool that enables Nigerian civil society actors to track the government’s implementation of its commitments to the energy transition. Nigerian government has designed to transition from fossil fuels—oil, gas and coal—to renewable energy technologies, including institutional, policy, legal and fiscal frameworks. It is informed by engagements with state and non-state actors including representatives of the government, the private sector, communities, youth and women’s groups, and by their views of the strengths and weaknesses of Nigeria’s energy transition plans. Accounting for Nigeria’s unique context and peculiarities as a fossil-fuel-dependent nation, the guidebook seeks to provide greater clarity on ways to navigate the energy transition for the Nigerian government, civil society, the media, the country’s citizens and the international community. It also seeks to mitigate transition led shocks and strengthen the overall transition process in Nigeria. The guidebook can enhance stakeholder knowledge of Nigeria’s energy transition process and government action to accelerate the transition. This should encourage the adoption of a comprehensive plan aligned with the needs and realities of most Nigerians. The insights provided in the guidebook may also inspire and influence regional conversations across the African continent, creating a collective demand for a people-centered and just energy transition in multiple countries.”
Topic:
Climate Change, Oil, Gas, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

114. Assessing the Fiscal Regime in Ghana’s Lithium Agreement

Author:
Thomas Scurfield and Denis Gyeyir
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
NRGI modeling indicates that the Ghanaian government has negotiated a government take for the country’s first lithium mine that is higher than Ghana’s legislated fiscal regime and the regimes of many other current and imminent lithium hard rock producers, such as Australia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zimbabwe. Modeling suggests an average effective tax rate (government revenues as a share of mine profits) of 58 percent (excluding paid state equity). Seventy percent of these government revenues depend on the profits that mine leaseholder Barari DV Ghana reports. To limit the risk of revenue shortfalls, the agreement should define the process for pricing the lithium, limit the deductibility of interest from taxable income, ensure state equity is non-dilutable and establish rules in the shareholders’ agreement about dividend payments. Given that modeling indicates an after-tax internal rate of return for investors in the Ewoyaa mine of around 102 percent (after debt financing), the government may be able to negotiate an even higher take in future deals for similarly profitable mines. A variable rate royalty could help achieve this higher take. To increase the prospects for a lithium refinery in Ghana—the government’s other key objective—the government should ensure Barari conducts a rigorous feasibility study, publish it and then hold a multistakeholder consultation to agree on subsequent actions.
Topic:
Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Lithium, Revenue Management, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

115. Strengthening Methane Emissions Reduction in Nigeria’s Oil and Gas Sector

Author:
Ahmad Abdulsamad and Tengi George-Ikoli
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Nigeria, with the world’s ninth-largest gas reserves, is a major methane emitter, accounting for 16 percent of sub-Saharan African methane emissions from 2010 to 2020. As the Federal Government aims to expand domestic gas use and exports, immediate action is needed to prevent increasing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. Unchecked oil and gas sector methane emissions threaten to exacerbate the climate change crisis, harm community health and safety, and undermine Nigeria’s capacity to trade in the global market and leverage the proceeds to sustain its economy. Nigeria needs a robust methane emissions framework to address technical and regulatory gaps across the oil and gas value chain. Frameworks should deliver tailored monitoring reporting and verification (MRV) systems that combine satellite and leak detection and repair (LDAR)technologies, create synergy among stakeholders, and incentivize methane emissions reduction. Oil and gas companies, including Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL), must prioritize investments in methane emissions reduction technologies, reflect global environmental commitments in local operations, and participate in independent data disclosure initiatives, such as the new Extractive Industries Transparency Initiatives (EITI) requirements for greenhouse gas emissions and the Nigeria EITI (NEITI) audit process. Civil society organizations should raise awareness, demand robust methane emissions frameworks and leverage tools such as the EITI standards to monitor company and government compliance with national and global commitments.
Topic:
Climate Change, Fossil Fuels, Methane, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

116. Senegal’s Gas-to-Power Ambitions: Securing Scale and Sustainability

Author:
Papa Daouda Diene, Thomas Scurfield, Aaron Sayne, and Jessica Obeid
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Senegal will benefit from generating electricity from some of its gas, but authorities should carefully consider the scale of the country’s “gas-to-power” ambitions and how they relate to its renewable energy plans. This is a pivotal moment for achieving the government’s energy and sustainable development objectives. Recent plans to develop over 3 gigawatts (GW) of gas-to-power capacity by 2050 may face obstacles. Senegal may not be able to extract enough gas to feed the power plants; it may also struggle to raise sufficient funds (at least USD 2.2 billion) to build the necessary infrastructure. A more balanced energy mix, with a stronger emphasis on renewables alongside gas, offers Senegal a more secure pathway, but necessitates a cohesive long-term strategy and international support. Senegal’s participation in a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) has led to increased medium-term renewable power generation goals—possibly to around 1 GW by 2030. To reach them, Senegal’s development partners must deliver the promised financial and technical support. If Senegal realizes only those plans that are published, gas will comprise 75 percent of installed capacity in the long term. The absence of a long-term plan for renewables could lock the country into this large role for gas, inhibiting the intended catalytic effect of the JETP and preventing the government from fully leveraging the country’s solar and wind potential. A more transparent and inclusive approach will help Senegal’s government to refine and implement its energy plans, helping to manage public expectations, foster public trust and increase credibility with investors.
Topic:
Gas, Fossil Fuels, Sustainability, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

117. Reducing Methane Emissions in Senegal’s Hydrocarbons Sector: A Call for Proactive and Transparent Action

Author:
Papa Daouda Diene and Aida Diop
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Senegalese authorities, and oil and gas companies must urgently take preventive measures to mitigate future methane emissions in Senegal’s oil and gas industry. With planned extraction expansions, these emissions could impact climate, public health, the environment and more directly, competitiveness of projects. Senegal currently emits low levels of methane, and there is political will to reduce methane emissions. However, the government should clearly spell out the country’s ambitions in national strategic documents such as the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the Energy Sector Development Policy Letter (LPDSE), and the upcoming long-term low-emission development strategy. Greater transparency and disclosure of disaggregated data are needed to boost the confidence of local stakeholders and improve the evaluation of emission reduction measures. The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), with its multi-stakeholder structure and new 2023 standard, can help the government and compagnies to improve transparency in methane emissions reporting. As officials are drafting the implementing decree for the new environmental code, the government should reinforce regulations with transparency and accountability obligations, such as requiring companies to share their methodologies to improve data accuracy for public decision-makers. The government should also clarify what constitutes “emergency situations”, such as authorized flaring. Senegal must advance its MRV (measuring, reporting, and verification) system with independent audits and standardized estimation methods for reliable data. While MRV is crucial long-term, a practical short-term system is needed to track progress without stifling action. Additionally, the government should enhance its teams' technical skills to efficiently reduce methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. PETROSEN should proactively manage methane emissions in order to strengthen its global position and meet growing expectations in terms of environmental performance. In the short-term, it should sign the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter, demonstrating a stronger commitment to methane emissions. Civil society actors and journalists should be better informed and involved in the management of methane emissions. Their active participation can enhance transparency, make companies more accountable, and raise public awareness of the environmental and health impacts of methane emissions.
Topic:
Transparency, Methane, Carbon Emissions, and Hydrocarbons
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

118. Tax Avoidance, Tax Evasion and Trade Misinvoicing: Risks to Senegal’s Mining Sector

Author:
William Davis
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Tax evasion, trade misinvoicing and multinational companies’ efforts to avoid tax are important risks in the extractive sector, especially in developing countries, including Senegal. Senegal’s extractive governance arrangements are strong in many areas, including in preventing multinational tax avoidance. However, there is cause for concern in two areas: misinvoicing of international trade (imports and exports), and cost inflation by subcontractors in the extractive industries. Quantitative estimates of trade misinvoicing suggest the former is a significant problem for Senegal (including for its mining sector), which could lead to the loss of 1–3 percent of the country’s tax revenues. Authorities in Senegal should address such risks, especially before the country begins large-scale oil and gas production. Unless they do so, revenues from the country’s hydrocarbon resources will be at risk. Measures that Senegal can take include strengthening the tax authorities—especially customs and auditing accounts of extractive industry suppliers.
Topic:
Corruption, Government, Gas, Mining, Minerals, Tax Evasion, and Public Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

119. How Sudan's Wars of Succession Shape the Current Conflict

Author:
Alden Young
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
Abstract:
Since fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the government-sponsored paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in April of 2023, according to the International Rescue Committee at least 25 million people out of a total population of roughly 48.7 million are in need of basic humanitarian aid. The crisis is escalating with fighting spreading to new parts of the country. Perhaps 37 percent of the country is confronting acute food insecurity.[1] Other statistics are also dire. Nine million people have been displaced within Sudan, while 1.7 million have been forced to flee to other countries. Most of the receiving countries such as Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, and South Sudan are already vulnerable. Initially the conflict was most intense in the capital of Khartoum and in the western provinces of Darfur and Kordofan, but in the last few months it has also spread to regions like Gezira state, the traditional breadbasket of the country.[2] The International Rescue Committee reports that, “Sudan is now the country with the largest number of displaced people and the largest child displacement crisis in the world.”[3] Many migrants who are able to head to the eastern regions of Sudan hope to eventually transit to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and from there potentially to other destinations.[4] Ever since the outbreak of the conflict the international community has rallied to negotiate an end to the fighting. The United States and Saudi Arabia have teamed up to negotiate at least sixteen failed ceasefires, while the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, and Egypt have all tried to develop alternative ceasefire and negotiating forums. In January, Mariel Ferragamo and Diana Roy assessed that “negotiation efforts were at a standstill.” [5] Despite the magnitude of the crisis in Sudan a year after fighting broke out, the response from the international community has been paltry. The United Nations has asked for $2.7 billion dollars in order to address the dire humanitarian situation in the country. However, the conflict in Sudan, which is already a regional crisis involving neighbors such as Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Egypt, Libya, and Ethiopia, has largely been overshadowed by the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. To date, the United Nations says that it has received only $424.9 million dollars to address the situation in Sudan.[6] Some of the worst violence during the conflict has taken place in the state of West Darfur. In what many Darfurians experience as reminders of the violence that broke out nearly two decades ago. There have been many credible reports of sexual violence, mass expulsions, and ethnic cleansing. Notably, members of the Masalit ethnic group have been repeatedly targeted as supporters of the SAF by the RSF and their allied militias.[7] The war in Darfur is in many ways a microcosm of the wider conflict, but it also points to the conflict’s direct origins in the long insurgency and counterinsurgency in Darfur.
Topic:
History, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

120. From Conflict to Collaboration: Co-funding Environmental Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia

Author:
Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
Somalia is experiencing significant impacts of climate change. Its climate-related vulnerabilities are exacerbated by the enduring effects of more than three decades of violent conflict and fragmented governance. As the effects of climate change become more pronounced, their interaction with social, economic and political realities threatens to create challenges that are complex and difficult to address. There is a need for policies and programmes that tackle climate change and conflict in tandem, but gaps persist in knowledge and evidence to inform actions under such policies and programmes. This SIPRI Policy Brief explores how the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Somalia uses a co-funding mechanism for facilitating collaboration between groups in conflict on addressing shared local priorities. In south-central Somalia, IOM has applied the co-funding mechanism to projects that aim to address local climate-related vulnerabilities, build relationships between communities in conflict and strengthen the role of district councils. This policy brief finds that elements of this approach to project design can support environmental peacebuilding in contexts exposed to climate change and affected by conflict and offers recommendations for organizations and other donors with relevant mandates.
Topic:
Environment, Conflict, Peacebuilding, and International Organization for Migration (IOM)
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

121. Material world: How Europe can compete with China in the race for Africa’s critical minerals

Author:
Sarah Logan
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
In the last two decades, China has come to dominate global supply chains for critical raw materials and the green energy and other technologies they enable. This increases competition and economic risks for Europe. In an effort to build CRM supply chains insulated from China, the EU has signed strategic partnerships with several politically friendly countries around the world, including in Africa. However, the EU will only realise its de-risking ambitions if the European private sector invests in CRM supply chains in partner countries in Africa and elsewhere. Yet the incentives for European companies to enter mining and processing operations in these markets are too weak. The example of Namibia shows that the EU’s strategic partnership with the country has borne little fruit – and may even be benefitting Chinese firms at European expense. To address this, the EU must enhance support to European companies to invest in securing access to critical raw materials. This should include new financial incentives and measures to protect against China manipulating prices on international markets.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Strategic Competition, Supply Chains, Strategic Partnerships, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Asia, and Namibia

122. Egypt: The Price of Inaction on Tax Reform

Author:
Omar Ghannam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Like public finances elsewhere, the public finances of the Egyptian state suffer from a semi-permanent deficit. Although a limited deficit in state budgets is acceptable for most prevailing economic theories, the persistent and worsening deficit in public budgets leads to severe phases during which the economy suffers. During periods of economic prosperity, soft loans are easily accessible, which encourages states to rely on borrowing as a secondary source of financing for extended periods until it becomes a permanent source of financing. The financial market eventually puts an end to every period of easy borrowing, forcing the government to face the reality it has tried to avoid. Under such circumstances, governments have three tools at their disposal: borrowing at the highest interest rate, austerity and disabling services and social protection programs, and raising taxes and customs duties. Borrowing at the highest interest rate is every government's first choice because it does not require a reformulation of the social, economic, and political contract between the state and its citizens. But the price of such a policy is a worsened deficit. Borrowing, before or after a crisis, is not a solution but merely a postponement of the crisis, in the hope that the market recovers. When it is no longer possible to borrow amid the worsening economic conditions of a crisis, the government resorts to other tools with varying degrees of risk. Austerity is a recipe for widespread social outcry and has catastrophic effects on the poor and middle classes as well as the overall economy due to decreased purchasing power. To overcome the crisis with the least social tension, the state can also resort to taxation to generate possible revenues whether from the economy as a whole or the sectors and classes with concentrated surpluses of value. The more severe the crisis, the more the government is forced to use additional tools and impose strict measures. Debts are nothing but deferred taxes, and taxes remain key in every economic crisis. When a global economic crisis looms, questions abound. Could the crisis be approached with fewer social and economic burdens and with more room for maneuver? In this context, this paper will discuss the tax policies adopted in the past few years in Egypt and how they could have been more effective. The primary role of taxes is to meet the government's financial needs to implement its role under the social contract, whether formal or informal. Therefore, taxes are a convenient introduction to understanding the political economy of any state. Tax policies are an essential tool for achieving macroeconomic goals, and they directly reflect the political and socioeconomic considerations driving a country’s economy. This paper will address the main role of taxes in financing the requirements of the social contract from the perspective of the adequacy and effectiveness of tax collection.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Reform, Finance, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

123. Why Morocco’s Youth Employment Policies Continue to Fail

Author:
Ismail Ait Bassou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Although Morocco has launched several programs designed to provide job opportunities for young people, youth unemployment rates remain high. This paper argues these programs have proven ineffective and are compounded by an unsustainable business environment, and presents some recommendations to ensure the planned reforms in the youth employment sector deliver on what they promise.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

124. The Implications of Financial Development for Economic Growth in CEMAC

Author:
Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In recent years, the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) has experienced sluggish economic growth. This has fallen from 4.86% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2021 (World Bank, 2021), a drop of 4.82 percentage points in a decade. In addition to the high vulnerability of economies to exogenous shocks, several economists such as Asteriou & Spanos (2019) attribute the slowdown in growth to the underdevelopment of the financial sector. In CEMAC, the access of populations to mobile money or commercial bank deposit services has undoubtedly become insufficient to keep economies on a sustainable and inclusive growth path. This article reviews the evolution of financial development indicators in the CEMAC zone since 2013, and its impact on the performance of states in terms of economic growth. We use secondary data collected from the World Bank and the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), between 2013 and 2021. The analysis provides public authorities in CEMAC with arguments to promote financial development in the sub-region to boost economic growth, and better take advantage of the opportunities of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The paper is structured in two sections. Section 1 presents the evolution of financial development indicators in CEMAC and section 2, the implications for economic growth and sustainable development.
Topic:
Development, Regional Cooperation, Finance, Economic Growth, and CEMAC (Central African Economic and Monetary Community)
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

125. Financial Autonomy of Decentralized Local Authorities and Local Development

Author:
Herve Ondoua, Bin Meh, Boris Andzanga Ndzana, and Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The financial autonomy of Decentralized Territorial Collectivities (DTCs) is today considered as the foundation of local governance. It confers decision-making power in financial matters to municipalities and regions, as well as a certain level of independence in the management of the resources at their disposal. In Cameroon, the general principles of financial autonomy are defined in the law on the General Code of DTCs, in particular in the Fifth Book, which repeals the law establishing the financial regime of local authorities and that on the financial regime of the State. Thus, financial autonomy should enable DTCs to develop by using their own resources in improving the living conditions of their populations. Despite these powers, DTCs still depend for the most part on income from municipal taxes and income transferred by the State. However, DTCs in Cameroon have real economic and financial potential but not a degree of financial autonomy that would allow them to accelerate the development of their locality. This reflection is aimed at local elected officials, political authorities, government authorities and civil society, with the aim of examining the effectiveness of financial autonomy in the face of the economic and financial potential of DTCs and their ability to implement their own local development projects. This article relates financial autonomy and local governance, on the one hand, and shows how financial autonomy is a factor of valorization of local resources, on the other hand.
Topic:
Development, Government, Finance, Local, Decentralization, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

126. What Synergy of Action in the Fight Against Corruption in Cameroon?

Author:
Theophile Nguimfack Voufo
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The phenomenon of corruption is growing so much in Cameroon, to the point where we must be careful that it does not become a characteristic of Cameroonian identity. Cameroon has twice held the rank of the highest corruption index in the world.[1] However, the will of the public authorities to put an end to it is matched only by the determination of the actors of corruption to escape the meshes of the control mechanisms. Given the government strategy and the proliferation of organizations fighting against corruption, one could expect a significant reduction of this scourge in Cameroon. But like a hydra, corruption remains a major problem in Cameroonian society. A substantial literature has been able to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of administrative, political, and jurisdictional bodies in the fight against corruption.[2] Among other weaknesses are prominently the subordination of the power of sanction to the will of the president of the Republic, the politicization of special operations to fight against corruption, and the lethargy of certain control bodies. The creation of the NACC, an organization specializing in the fight against corruption, has created hope in Cameroon. But, the decree fixing its attributions does not give it its own power of sanction. Consequently, NACC limits itself to noting the facts of corruption and reports them to the public authorities or seizes the judge by denunciation. This technique of referral by denunciation was mainly oriented toward the judicial judge. In practice, however, NACC had to experiment with referral to the Audit Bench of the Supreme Court, which opens up the prospect of collaboration between these two bodies in the fight against corruption in Cameroon. The question arises as to how NACC and the jurisdiction of accounts can combine their actions in the fight against corruption in Cameroon. After analysis, it appears that the ways of functional collaboration between the two organizations exist (I); however, they require some operational coordination (II).
Topic:
Corruption, Courts, Bureaucracy, and Efficiency
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

127. The Russian-Ukrainian War: An Opportunity to Strengthen the AfCFTA

Author:
Steve Tametong and Venessa Aboudi
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The world had hardly covered from the horrors of the COVID-19 pandemic when it was once again tested on February 24, 2022, by the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. The consequences of this war are quite significant for humanity. On the economic level, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has highlighted the disadvantages of globalization, understood as a process marked by the interconnection and interdependence of world economies. The inflationary shock and the food crisis resulting from the inoperative nature of import channels for certain basic necessities from Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated the fragility of the economies. With regard to African countries, in particular, the prices of several basic food products (wheat, flour, rice, maize, bread, vegetable oil, etc.) have risen sharply. Indeed, most African countries are almost dependent on the import of agricultural products and seeds from the two belligerent countries. These imports correspond to 35 billion US dollars of imports each year (1). This appears to be an incongruity given the extent of arable land on the African continent. The low production and especially processing capacity increases the dependence of African economies on the import of these basic products. The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict makes it possible to question the economic resilience of African States, that is to say, their “capacity [ to] keep output close to [their] potential despite a shock ” (2). Above all, it offers the opportunity to analyze the economic and commercial potential of the AfCFTA in the process of building the resilience of African economies to external shocks. Indeed, the AfCFTA was officially launched in January 2021 with the main objective of “creating a single market for goods and services facilitated by the movement of people in order to deepen the economic integration of the African continent…” (3). This policy note is structured around the idea that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in view of its socio-economic consequences on the African continent, offers an opportunity for African countries to work toward the strengthening of the AfCFTA. So that it appears as a real pole of competitiveness and inter-African trade likely to counter the shocks and uncertainties of the dynamics of world trade. Before analyzing the AfCFTA as a pole of production and export of African products (II), it is necessary to take stock of the socio-economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war on African economies (I).
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, Military Strategy, Free Trade, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

128. Entrepreneurship, Youths, and Women Economic Inclusion in Cameroon

Author:
Laurent Brice Nsengue, Bin Joachem Meh, and Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Bentham’s theory of utilitarian morality leads us to know that the purpose of economic activity is to ensure social progress for the happiness of the greatest number. Thus, excluding people from an economic system without considering their interests is considered a destruction of the common good. According to the United Nations (1962), population is one of the most important factors of economic productivity, as it influences the rate of development of a country. Women represent 49.6% of the world’s population and young people aged 10 to 24 represent 15.5% of the world’s population (UN World Youth Report, 2020; World Bank, 2020). In Cameroon, youth and women represent more than 60% of the population, but remain the most economically excluded (BUCREP, 2005). This reality appears to be a challenge for a country that wants to be an emerging country by 2035. The main objective of this paper is to show the role that entrepreneurial development could play in promoting the economic inclusion of youth and women in Cameroon. It is expected to raise awareness among public authorities as well as the private sector of the importance of economic inclusion of youth and women through entrepreneurship development. Based on studies carried out by credible international and local institutions, we focus on the challenges of entrepreneurship in the context of the economic inclusion of youth and women and the opportunity of entrepreneurship for the economic inclusion of young people and women in Cameroon.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Entrepreneurship, Discrimination, Youth, Equality, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

129. Universal Basic Income: A Primer for Poverty Reduction in Africa

Author:
Bin Joachem Meh, Ntoubia Larissa, and Ondoua Herve
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Universal basic income (UBI) scheme provides regular payment in cash to everyone in the economy irrespective of their social, economic, financial, and political status. UBI has a direct effect on poverty reduction; this implies that providing cash to everyone in the society irrespective of their financial status will reduce the rate of poverty as citizens will be able to meet basic needs such as food, housing, and clothing especially if this basic income amount is above the poverty line. For others, UBI will only increase inequality and poverty especially in developing countries who lack finances to provide such income to everyone in the society (Robert, 2019). UBI is a simple and practical solution to eradicating poverty, by giving everyone a minimum income, regardless of whether they are young, old, employed or unemployed, the government can tackle poverty reduction (Centre for Social Justice, 2018). More recently UBI has been a major issue of concern and it is seen as the answer to wider problems of technological unemployment, wealth inequality, mental health stability and social mobility. In India, UBI improved mental and physical health and in Namibia UBI program reduced household poverty from 76% to 37% in one year (Johanna, 2014). The high poverty rate and the scanty nature of the UBI literature in Africa makes this study an important contribution to the body of knowledge and further enable policy makers to reflect on the implementation of UBI principle. The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of universal basic income on narrowing the poverty gap in Africa. The rest of the paper will bring out the role of UBI in poverty reduction, and propose some policy recommendations for the introduction of the UBI in Africa.
Topic:
Poverty, Universal Basic Income, Humanitarian Crisis, Wages, and Income
Political Geography:
Africa

130. The African Continental Free Trade Area: A boon for the “Africa We Want” by 2063?

Author:
Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
One of the major objectives set by the African Union (AU) in Agenda 2063, is to achieve a “prosperous Africa, based on inclusive and sustainable growth”. To ensure the prosperity of the people, especially of women and youth, member states have, in the first ten years of the adoption of this agenda, taken a number of initiatives to strengthen economic integration of the continent. Among these initiatives, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in January 2021, occupies a prominent place. In launching the AfCFTA, and making it effective, the intention of the AU is to overcome the historical fragmentation and isolation of the various African economies. The challenge is to open them up to new global trade opportunities and improve transport and communication links across the continent. However, not all AU member countries have ratified this major project. The objective of this article is to take stock of the economic integration process that has been set in motion with the effective entry into force of the AfCFTA. It highlights, on the one hand, the main reasons that justify the reluctance of states that have not yet signed the AfCFTA agreement and, on the other hand, outlines the opportunities offered by AfCFTA for an Africa that wants to emerge as a strong, united and influential player and partner on the world stage.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Free Trade, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

131. Cameroon: The State’s Transfer of Powers to the Regions

Author:
Pacome Vouffo
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
If there is one thing that is hardly debatable in legal science, it is the evolution of law through constitutional or legislative textual reform on a given issue. The issue of decentralisation in Cameroon is an illustration. The constitutional and legislative dynamics since independence reflect this, particularly with the inclusion of local authorities in the Constitution of 4 March 1960, the 1974 laws applicable to the Communes and their subsequent amendments , the constitutional reform of 18 January 1996 explicitly raising decentralisation to the constitutional rank , the laws of 22 July 2004 on decentralisation and today Law No. 2019/024 of 24 December 2019 to lay down the General Code of Regional and local authorities(CGCTD). This Code enshrines an evolution in decentralisation law and sets out the terms and conditions for the exercise by the State of powers transferred to regional and local authorities in general and to the Regions in particular. From a legal point of view, this reframing does not seem to have aroused the interest of the doctrine in the same way as the question of the special regime for the North-West and South-West Regions, which has been addressed . In view of its scope, however, it is easy to admit that the legislator has made a significant change. It is necessary to examine the contours of this evolution in order to untangle the threads and consequently set the markers for understanding, following an approach based solely on the Regions as a framework for analysis and not on all the Regional and Local Authorities. Indeed, the choice of the Regions as the analytical framework is not insignificant. As the first level of decentralisation in Cameroon, the Region has only recently been established since its consecration in 1996. It is the characteristic of regionalism instituted since the constitutional reform of 18 January 1996. This regionalism is legally translated by the erection in 1996 of administrative provinces into Regions, headed by a President, an indigenous personality of the Region elected by his peers , and an elected Regional Council whose political colouring prints a mixture of traditional chiefs with the other departmental Councils. Compared to the Commune, therefore, the Region is a new feature of decentralisation which finds its basis in the controversy that took place during the 1996 reform on the form of the State between the supporters of the centralised State and those of the federal State. According to the doctrine, it is a point of agreement between these two (02) trends. When we know that regionalism as a technique for organising the unitary State is an advanced version of decentralisation that could border on federalism without being one, we can only subscribe to the idea that the Region is the point of agreement that would have federated the actors of the 1996 reform. With these considerations in mind, the attention given to the Region is justified. Following this logic, it must be agreed that the exercise by the State of powers transferred to the Regions did not disappear with the advent of the CGCTD, as some authors have suggested. It was maintained, however, with a reform of the legal framework that underpins an evolution in this area. If yesterday, the exercise by the State of powers transferred to the local and regional authorities in general and to the Regions in particular was legally self-evident (I), in the current state of Cameroonian decentralisation law, it is now only a possibility (II).
Topic:
Governance, Reform, State, and Local
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

132. The Regional Administrative Structure in Cameroon

Author:
Ebenezer David Ngahna Mangmadi
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Be it from a common law or a special status, a regional and local authorities[1] resulting from the constitutional reform of January 18, 1996[2], has an administration in charge of instructing and implementing the decisions taken by its executive organs. Under the authority of a secretary general who is appointed by the President of the Republic[3], it is implemented according to the standard organisation set out in decree n°2021/742 of 28 December 2021. It should be noted that this important legal text taken in application of article 496 of law n°2019/024 of 24 December 2009 on the general code of regional and local authorities (hereafter CGCTD), has greatly contributed to the acceleration of the process of establishing the regions initiated by the elections of December 6, 2020. The configuration of the standard model of regional administration that it suggests, highlights a complex combination of structures with diverse functions, the articulation of which may vary from case to case. This organisational scheme reveals the extent of the tasks that a regional administration must undertake, but it is not easy to access. As such, it deserves to be explained. This note is intended for professionals in the field of decentralisation, researchers and citizens seeking information. More clearly, the aim is to inform the reader about the subtleties of the structuring of the regional administration. To achieve this, it relies on an interpretive approach to the texts, mainly, the law n°2019/024 of 24 December 2019, and the decree of 28 December 2021. After presenting the different structures of the regional administration (I), the text will dwell on their articulation (II).
Topic:
Government, Local, Decentralization, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

133. Moving on Up: Multilevel Monitoring and Advocacy for Health Rights

Author:
Abrehet Gebremedhin
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
Multilevel approaches to monitoring and advocacy are often used by international development practitioners, particularly in civil society, in efforts to hold governments—from the national to the local—to account for policy implementation. However, such approaches are not yet well understood or identified by many scholars in the social accountability field. This evidence review addresses this gap through a cross-case comparison of multilevel approaches in ten health rights programs across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It draws on published evaluations, working papers, and peer-reviewed journal articles, as well as insights shared by implementers and researchers. Cases were selected to illustrate health rights initiatives that included monitoring or advocacy activity at a minimum of two different levels: local health facility, district, regional, provincial or national. Four significant findings emerge from this review of evidence: Vertical integration is a relatively common feature of multilevel monitoring and advocacy in these ten cases and is most likely to take place at the lower ends of the health system. However, it is largely implicit, and often not articulated in project design or theories of change. Horizontal organizing—the coordination of civil society action across districts or geographies—is a less visible feature of multilevel approaches to health rights programming than vertical integration. Despite the multilevel nature of health monitoring and advocacy in these ten cases, less than half reported working at the regional or provincial level, indicating a ‘missing middle’ between local and national activity. Escalation—the process by which citizens’ unaddressed claims move upwards to those with greater decision- making powers—is an important mechanism for accountability and one way in which vertical integration can happen. However, escalation is not clearly articulated in much of the gray literature, and therefore merits further research. The findings from this evidence review have implications for strategy, including: the importance of explicitly identifying multilevel tactics for monitoring and advocacy; theorizing the process by which unaddressed claims can be addressed, particularly moving up beyond the local level; emphasizing the importance of the ‘middle’ and ensuring regional and provincial decision-making is leveraged; and looking to link vertical integration with opportunities for horizontal organizing.
Topic:
Civil Society, Health, Accountability, Advocacy, and Monitoring
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Latin America

134. Does Project-Level Aid for Water and Sanitation Improve Child Health Outcomes? Evidence from Household Panel Data in Uganda

Author:
Lynda Pickbourn, Raymond Caraher, and Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Empirical studies on the effectiveness of aid to the water, sanitation, and hygiene sector (WASH aid) have focused primarily on access to these services as the benchmark for evaluating the effectiveness of aid in this sector. Given the importance of WASH services for public health outcomes, the effectiveness of WASH aid should also be evaluated in terms of its impact on health outcomes. This is especially important in low- and middle-income countries where achieving sustained improvements in child health outcomes remains a challenge. This paper uses geocoded sub-national data on the location of WASH aid projects in Uganda in conjunction with six waves of nationally representative household-level panel survey data to examine the impact of aid-funded WASH projects on the probability of stunting among Ugandan children and infants. Analysing aid effectiveness at the sub-national level avoids the problems of cross-country heterogeneity in aid effectiveness that plagues other studies. Results of the difference-in-differences regression analysis suggest that proximity to an aid-funded WASH project reduces the probability of stunting by 14–21 per cent. The results suggest that scaling up aid to the WASH sector can help improve child health outcomes in the country.
Topic:
Health, Humanitarian Aid, Water, Sanitation, and Child Care
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

135. The Egyptian Financial Crisis: Implications for the region, and for Israel too

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Egypt continues to play an active role in regional affairs, including the Aqaba emergency meeting on the Palestinian situation (February 26) and the ongoing effort to prevent escalation in Gaza. At the same time, Cairo is in the middle of a significant financial crisis. The effects of the war in Ukraine – specifically, grain shortages – brought the Egyptian pound to more than 30 to the dollar, up from 20 in November and 15 in early 2022, facilitated by deliberate government action in response to demands by the IMF. Inflation still soars, and so does youth unemployment. All this could destabilize a nation of 105 million on our border, with dire consequences.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Conflict, Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, Egypt, and MENA

136. The Future of EU Blended Finance and Guarantees: An Assessment of Cooperation Strategies with Least Developed Countries in Africa

Author:
Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus (EFSD+) is a core element of EU development cooperation and reflects the EU’s strong commitment to deploying blended finance and guarantees as development financing tools. This discussion paper examines the EU’s intentions concerning how the EFSD+ will be integrated into geographic programmes, focussing on the least developed countries (LDCs) in Africa. Based on a review of the Multiannual Indicative Programmes (MIPs) for 30 African LDCs as well as the regional MIP for Sub-Saharan Africa covering the period 2021-2027, the paper provides an overview of funding reserved for EFSD+ implementation in geographic programmes, identifies the expected EFSD+ sectoral priorities and summarises references to development finance institutions (DFIs) as EFSD+ implementation partners. This descriptive review highlights issues for the future monitoring and assessment of the EFSD+. The paper points to uncertainty about the magnitude of the management challenge that EU institutions face in EFSD+ implementation given the difficulties of predicting the scale of guarantee-backed operations in individual countries, the lack of information on the expected volume of blended finance operations, and the limited analysis of how EFSD+ tools relate to other EU funding approaches. The paper also notes that EU institutions should be more explicit about the criteria shaping EFSD+ resource commitments to clarify relevant prerequisites for the effective deployment of EFSD+ tools. Finally, the broad thematic scope for EFSD+ use implies that knowledge about how blended finance and guarantees function and how the financing approaches interact with other interventions needs to increase throughout the EU system.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Finance, Sustainability, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

137. Remittances and corruption perceptions in Africa

Author:
Alex Yeandle and David Doyle
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The relationship between remittances and corruption is contested. For some authors, external income endows individuals with financial buffers, which undermine these individuals’ incentive to hold governments to account and allow rent-seeking politicians to invest fewer resources in public goods. For others, remittance payments undermine clientelist networks and increase individual-level political engagement and accountability. For others still, remittances diffuse social norms, since senders are likely to live in large cities or wealthier countries where corruption is less tolerated. However, despite being rooted in individual-level assumptions, many of the conflicting results in the extant literature have an empirical focus at the aggregate level. In this paper we offer a corrective, explaining variation in individual-level perceptions of corruption among remittance recipients through a new mechanism. With survey data from 34 African countries, we show that recipients are endowed with greater cash income, which is used to bribe officials in the hope of securing preferential access to basic services. This act of paying bribes, coupled with the fact that access does not appear to improve, fuels perceptions that the government is corrupt.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Leadership, Accountability, and Bribery
Political Geography:
Africa

138. Keeping tabs? Perceptions of relative deprivation and political trust in Africa

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
What are the implications of economic inequality for trust in government and state institutions? Political trust performs important functions in representative political systems, facilitating the efficient functioning of government, simplifying complex political processes, and reducing monitoring costs for ordinary people. The existing literature has shown that macroeconomic performance (including levels of inequality) and evaluations shape political trust. This paper addresses two gaps in the literature by focusing on the role of individual perceptions and subjective experiences of inequality and by studying cases in Africa. Using Afrobarometer survey data collected from more than 40,000 respondents in 34 African countries between late 2016 and mid-2018, I use multi-level modelling to demonstrate that perceptions of relative deprivation are significantly associated with less trust in representative government institutions and, more weakly, with less trust in state institutions. The effect of perceptions of relative deprivation remains significant when controlling for macroeconomic conditions and performance evaluations. In effect size, trust in representative government institutions is at least comparable to frequently cited covariates of trust such as location, level of education, and government economic performance, suggesting that perceived relative deprivation is indeed an important covariate of such trust. Feeling relatively advantaged is also significantly associated with greater trust in representative government institutions. This may reflect strong neo-patrimonial ties between citizens and political agents. In demonstrating that individual-level economic considerations affect political trust in Africa, we challenge the conventional wisdom that only macroeconomic factors affect trust.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa

139. Explaining the experience of political violence in Nigeria

Author:
Tunde A. Alabi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Violence has been part of Nigeria’s politics since before political independence. While there have been attempts to understand why political violence happens in the country, little emphasis has been placed on explanatory factors for political-violence victimisation. This study investigates the influence of socio-demographic characteristics, presence of security apparatus, partisanship, political participation, and social group membership on the experience of political violence in Nigeria and examines how the influence of these factors varies between Northern and Southern Nigeria – two regions with major social and cultural differences. The study analyses data from the seventh round of the Afrobarometer survey, which were collected in 2017 from 1,568 adults across the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria. Multiple linear regression models were fitted. Our analysis finds that about one in four persons has experienced at least one form of political violence. Living in the South, being young, being poor, living in an area with no police presence, being partisan, participating in politics, and being active in social groups increase the likelihood of political-violence victimisation. While women were more likely than men to experience political violence in the North, the reverse is the case in the South. Regional variation is also observed in the influence of political participation and the degree of the effect of party affiliation and social group membership.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Gender Issues, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

140. Worsening Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Sarah McIntosh and Naomi Kikoler
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum's Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published a report in February 2022 detailing the immediate risk of mass atrocities facing South Sudanese civilians.1 Since then, threats facing South Sudanese civilians have worsened and the government of South Sudan has failed to take action to mitigate these threats.2 Attacks against civilians have continued, leading thousands of people to be killed, injured, or displaced. Experts told Simon-Skjodt Center staff that they feared the world's youngest country would slip back into full scale war. This stems from both the highly complex conflict dynamics throughout the country with different geographic regions experiencing unique forms of violence from distinct perpetrators as well as the South Sudanese government's recent decision to delay for two years the deadline for implementing the peace agreement and for conducting national elections. Their actions suggest that those most responsible for past abuses may intend to cling to power and evade justice for their actions. The need to take decisive preventative and protective action is urgent.
Topic:
Impunity, Civilians, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

141. Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security Threats in Africa and the Middle East

Author:
Munsu Kang
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The food security crisis in the Middle East has been exacerbated by several events, including COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the greater crisis is the decline in agricultural productivity caused by climate change and the rise of protectionist trade policies. This study examined the impact of drought on regional grain prices, specifically drought, which has the greatest impact on the Middle East region of Africa among weather changes. It was predicted by the IPCC (2019) that weather changes would affect agricultural production systems and that these changes would affect international grain markets and government trade policies. This study found that prices in the African Middle East maize and rice market increased as the drought intensified and the period lengthened, as predicted. Sorghum and millet, however, are relatively inelastic to climate change, so it can be assumed that they will receive attention as climate change intensifies. This study proposes areas for cooperation such as agricultural production, supporting the vulnerable, and crop reserve with the Middle East and Africa.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

142. The Politics of New Cities: Diversification of Actors and Recentralization of State Power in the Case of Diamniadio

Author:
Sina Schlimmer
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The construction of new cities on the African continent is in vogue. From multifunctional urban hubs to eco-districts, the images that accompany the announcement of these projects promote an African urban future based on modernity and technology. This trend for urban planning that claims to make a clean sweep of pre-existing approaches is not unique to African countries, whose governments are inspired in particular by North African and Asian models. However, the promotion of new cities in Africa is part of the lively debate that has been going on for several years on the rapid urbanization of the continent's countries. The creation of modern cities, organized and corresponding to the urban planning standards of international metropolises, is presented as a means of avoiding haphazard, chaotic urban development. This paper offers a critical analysis of the policy of new cities based on an empirical study of the new urban pole of Diamniadio (PUD) in Senegal. Two key arguments are put forward in this paper. First, the analysis deconstructs the ex nihilo character of these urban projects and emphasizes that they are part of public policy trajectories. Due to its geo-economic and strategic position, Diamniadio has been at the heart of the Dakar region's territorial planning policies since at least the end of the 1990s. Secondly, new towns are far from being neutral and technical urban planning instruments; rather, they are political devices that convey interests and stimulate power games. By delimiting the boundaries of the PUD, which is presented as President Macky Sall's political footprint, the central government regains certain administrative powers, particularly in terms of land planning and allocation. In addition, the PUD reflects competition from foreign actors, both public and private, and the growing importance of emerging actors such as Turkey.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, State, Urban, and Cities
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

143. Nigeria’s 2023 Election: Democratic Development and Political Fragmentation

Author:
Sa'eed Husaini
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Nigerians will go to the polls on February 25 to elect a new president and members of the National Assembly. This marks the 7th in an unbroken sequence of presidential elections held since the country’s return to democracy in 1999. With President Muhammadu Buhari unable to compete in the election having served two full terms, the unpopular ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party will face a formidable challenge, not only from its traditional rival, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), but also from an unprecedented ‘third party’ challenger – a previously marginal but now surging Labour Party. This paper analyzes Nigeria’s 2023 election not only in the context of this unique partisan configuration, but also considering the wider set of factors that will, in all probability, influence the organization and the outcome of the election. These factors include the preparedness of the Independent National Electoral Commission and especially its capacity to properly deploy its newly acquired biometric and result transmission technologies. In addition, the analysis explores the ways in which the voting process and result will also reflect the limitations and risks imposed by Nigeria’s current climate of chronic insecurity, resulting from active armed militia and criminal groups operating across nearly all regions, but particularly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South-south. Insecurity has likewise coincided with rising elite polarization and the breakdown of the “zoning’ consensus ahead of the election, elevating the importance of identitarian political rhetoric in the campaigns. While insecurity appears likely to contribute to the trend of declining voter turnouts observed in previous elections, the apparent increase in political interest, particularly among young voters, as reflected in the spike in the collection of voters cards ahead of the election might mark a countervailing trend. Against this backdrop, the paper also considers the major parties, candidates, their political projects as well as their target constituencies. It finds that the parties articulated moderately divergent emphases while remaining largely consonant on the contentious economic questions of the period. It also considers possible elections scenarios that may result from the varying institutional and political characteristics of the main parties. Ultimately, it finds that the 2023 poll will represent the continued evolution of Nigerian electoral institutions and political participation in a context of lingering social division and insecurity.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Political Parties, Presidential Elections, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

144. African Media Cultures and Chinese Public Relations Strategies in Kenya and Ethiopia

Author:
Hangwei Li and Yuan Wang
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China has become a global power, but there is too little debate about how this has happened and what it means. Many argue that China exports its developmental model and imposes it on other countries. But Chinese players also extend their influence by working through local actors and institutions while adapting and assimilating local and traditional forms, norms, and practices. With a generous multiyear grant from the Ford Foundation, Carnegie has launched an innovative body of research on Chinese engagement strategies in seven regions of the world—Africa, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, the Pacific, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Through a mix of research and strategic convening, this project explores these complex dynamics, including the ways Chinese firms are adapting to local labor laws in Latin America, Chinese banks and funds are exploring traditional Islamic financial and credit products in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and Chinese actors are helping local workers upgrade their skills in Central Asia. These adaptive Chinese strategies that accommodate and work within local realities are mostly ignored by Western policymakers in particular. Ultimately, the project aims to significantly broaden understanding and debate about China’s role in the world and to generate innovative policy ideas. These could enable local players to better channel Chinese energies to support their societies and economies; provide lessons for Western engagement around the world, especially in developing countries; help China’s own policy community learn from the diversity of Chinese experience; and potentially reduce frictions.
Topic:
Development, Media, Public Relations, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, China, and Ethiopia

145. Will the Invasion of Ukraine Change Russia-Africa Relations?

Author:
Ronak Gopaldas
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
With ties forged under Soviet rule, Russia has historically enjoyed warm relations with many African countries, as their economic and ideological ambitions often align and their ties are bolstered by a mutual mistrust of the West. The spread of Africa’s votes on United Nations (UN) resolutions to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however, indicates three key themes. Firstly, many African countries are pulled in competing directions by broader global geopolitics—for many, abstaining was the rational choice. Secondly, Russia’s support on the continent may be overstated and is not unconditional. Finally, Russian influence is often limited by the extent to which it can influence the political elite of a country and in some cases co-opt that elite into patronage networks. The split in the way African countries voted to condemn Russia’s actions is an important departure point for an exploration of the changing nature of Africa’s ties to Russia. There have been myriad interpretations of the votes, most of which have focused on the failure of several African countries to denounce the invasion. Few have questioned whether the nonaligned stances of these countries were tacit refusals to be used as supporting actors in public displays of condemnation by the United States and European Union (EU), to distract from the inability to offer meaningful practical or military support. Fewer still have explored whether the nonaligned stances signal weakening Russian influence on a continent it has typically relied on for support. This paper examines political relations between Russia and Africa, delving into the legacy of independence, military support, diplomatic and foreign policy stances, aid, foreign direct investment, and trade. It will also unpack whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a catalyst for what appears to be Russia’s diminishing influence or whether the former Soviet Union’s waning global standing and economic relevance precipitated a loosening of ties. The fluidity of geopolitics has left many African states between a rock and a hard place. What does this mean for Africa, not only in terms of its relationship to Russia but also more broadly on the geopolitical stage? Further, how would Africa be positioned on the global stage should Russia prevail, should the war drag on, or, more interestingly, should Ukraine emerge victorious?
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

146. Why Women Haven’t Been Successful in Nigerian Elections

Author:
Elor Nkereuwem
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Women’s representation in Nigerian politics has been on a downward slide since 2011, and the 2023 elections in Africa’s largest economy confirmed the expectations of poor outcomes for women. The number of women in Nigeria’s National Assembly has fallen by 19 percent compared to the last assembly, with women now occupying 3 percent of seats in the Senate and 4 percent in the House of Representatives.1 To understand why Nigerian women performed so poorly in the recent elections, the 2022 primary elections provided insight into the challenges and barriers faced by women aspirants and candidates. The results of the various parties’ primary elections highlight enduring limitations to women’s representation in competitive politics in Nigeria. The country ranks in the bottom ten globally in women’s representation in national parliaments, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU).2 This challenge of representation persists in spite of the near parity of voter registration between men and women in past election cycles.3
Topic:
Elections, Women, Domestic Politics, and Representation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

147. Actor Profile: The March 23 Movement (M23)

Author:
Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The March 23 Movement (M23) — Mouvement du 23 Mars in French — is an armed group operating in Nord Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with alleged backing from the Rwandan government. The roots of the M23 go back to the disrupted integration process of Rwandophone militants following the Congo Wars, splitting those willing to return to Rwanda and others desiring to stay in DRC.1 Many fighters remained in Nord Kivu province to form the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) under the leadership of a former Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) militant, Laurent Nkunda. A precursor to the M23, the CNDP claimed to protect Congolese Tutsi and received Rwandan support.2 The M23’s name comes from the failed negotiation process between the CNDP and the Congolese government on 23 March 2009.3
Topic:
Political Violence, Non State Actors, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

148. Political Violence and the 2023 Nigerian Election

Author:
Andrea Carboni and Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 25 February 2023, Nigerians will elect a new president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly. Term limit legislation bars President Muhammadu Buhari from running for a third term, and the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Eighteen candidates are vying for the presidency, and at least 4,223 candidates are running for the 469 seats in the National Assembly.1 The presidential frontrunners include Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who has surprisingly led in the pre-election polls. Two weeks after the national election, on 11 March 2023, 28 out of 36 states will also elect a new governor, with 17 incumbent governors reaching their term limits and hence barred from re-running.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

149. Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes

Author:
Theshne Kisten
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of financial frictions in the public debt–growth nexus, documenting that a public debt shock has different macro-financial implications dependent on the state of financial markets in South Africa. A non-linear vector autoregression model is estimated which allows the transmission mechanism to be characterized by two distinct financial regimes: stressful versus normal. The empirical results suggest that a public debt shock has a broadly insignificant impact on economic growth over the full sample, reflecting the ineffectiveness of government borrowing in stimulating the economy, and could suggest that the high and growing debt service costs faced by the government reduces funds available for investment purposes. Debt shocks are found to be deflationary in both regimes, lending support to the precautionary savings effect and the existence of a well-developed financial market, while interest rates decline with the immediate impact being moderately larger in the stress regime, providing evidence of the accommodative stance between fiscal policy and monetary policy. In response to a public debt shock, financial conditions show an immediate and transitory improvement in the high-stress regime; however, in the low-stress regime there is an immediate yet negligible improvement in financial conditions. Lastly, the responses evolve over time, with fiscal policy being less effective in stimulating the economy in the post-crisis period, but it has been effective in reducing financial stress in the high-stress regime.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Economic Growth, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

150. Nation building in post-conflict settings: Evidence from South Africa

Author:
Thomas Gautier, Daniela Horta-Saenz, and Gianluca Russo
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
How do states rebuild nations after a major conflict? Truth and Reconciliation Commissions (TRCs) have emerged as one of the most common interventions to achieve this objective. Despite their popularity, little is known about their efficacy to foster reconciliation and nation building. We fill this gap by studying the seminal TRC established in South Africa after the end of the Apartheid. To measure exposure to TRC across South African municipalities, we leverage quasi-random variation in media coverage of the TRC message. South African municipalities with higher historical exposure to TRC on media have lower levels of violence today. This effect is driven by improved nation building and higher trust towards post-Apartheid institutions. Exploiting daily variation in TRC hearings and mediatic exposure in the short run, we bolster our interpretation that our long-run results are forged in the years of TRC activity. The same evidence suggests that our results are driven by the coverage of TRC on media as opposed to generic media exposure.
Topic:
Reconciliation, Post-Conflict, Trust, Nation Building, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa