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101. Regionalizing African Mineral Value Chains: Requirements for Success

Author:
Silas Olan'g, Thomas Scurfield, Anthony Black, and Michael Smith
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
Regional cooperation can enhance the prospects for mineral value addition in Africa, but it requires governments, regional bodies and private sector actors to overcome a combination of political, economic and technical challenges at national and regional levels. Other regional initiatives within Africa and the rest of the world suggest six ways to improve the chances of establishing regional mineral value chains: 1. Start small and targeted: Build coalitions of willing governments around specific value chain opportunities, and allow technical capacity and trust to grow. 2. Engage the private sector: Transparently engage local and foreign private sector actors to identify and understand the market failures preventing value chain development and the opportunities available to advance it. 3. Share the benefits: Explore mechanisms that ensure all participating countries benefit— including through Africa’s more-developed countries showing leadership by supporting investments elsewhere in the region. 4. Strengthen regional institutions: Expand the mandate, capacity and resources of regional institutions, particularly their research and planning functions, to improve design and advocacy of regional cooperation. 5. Ensure African ownership: External partners should play an enabling—not driving—role, supporting regional institutions and initiatives while ensuring African leadership. 6. Foster public support: Use transparency, multistakeholder consultation and public outreach to build citizen buy-in and lasting political commitment.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Value Chains, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

102. Strengthening Uganda’s Management of Uncertain Oil Revenues

Author:
Paul Bagabo and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
The Uganda government expects oil production to start in 2026, but how much government revenue this production will generate is uncertain. Projections by Rystad Energy and the Natural Resource Governance Institute average around USD 1.9 billion a year up to 2050 if the global energy transition is slow, but only $1 billion a year in a moderate transition scenario. While the government has established a revenue management framework with several strengths, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) could finetune this framework before first oil through reforms to the Public Finance Management Act 2015 and via regulations. MoFPED could require that oil revenues are spent on diversifying the economy; legislate a stronger limit on recurrent spending; and clarify its approach to revenues deposited in the Petroleum Revenue Investment Reserve, including by prioritizing paying off high-interest debt and considering a stabilization buffer to use for significant shocks. In coordination with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (MEMD) and Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC), MoFPED could clarify the procedure for financing UNOC investments from the Petroleum Fund, and UNOC’s ability to retain revenues, and ensure parliament has oversight of the company’s investment plans across a range of scenarios. MoFPED and MEMD could also clarify the mechanism for subnational revenue sharing, including which local governments and cultural or traditional institutions will receive a share and how that share will be determined.
Topic:
Oil, Fossil Fuels, Revenue, Energy Transition, and National Oil Companies
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

103. Amid global challenges and the need for strong governance: JETP as a potential driver of Senegal’s energy transition

Author:
Aida Diop, Abdoulaye Ba, Papa Daouda Diene, and Elimane Haby Kane
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
In an uncertain global context and facing urgent challenges in electricity access, the deployment of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) offers Senegal a unique opportunity to build a clear and coherent public policy for its energy transition. To meet these challenges and succeed in its energy transition, Senegal must establish a robust, inclusive, and cross-sector governance framework to guide the JETP’s deployment. This governance effort should be supported by effective public communication that reaches the most affected communities, providing the initiative with visibility and legitimacy. Repositioned strategic coordination, backed by strengthened interministerial leadership and an expanded, sustained steering committee (COPIL), is essential for an effective and inclusive energy transition.
Topic:
Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Senegal, and Sub-Saharan Africa

104. From Silos to Synergies: Partnering for Social Cohesion in the Sahel

Author:
Simone Bunse, Caroline Delgado, and Rachel Blair
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
The Sahel Resilience Partnership (SRP) is a German government-funded initiative that unites two United Nations entities and Germany’s international development agency to address converging crises in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. The SRP is an example of the operationalization of the humanitarian–development–peace (HDP) nexus. The partners use coordinated, multisectoral programming covering food and nutrition security, climate-resilient ecosystems, social services and conflict resolution to enhance resilience to shocks and foster social cohesion. Key strengths include a multilevel steering structure and an adaptable joint regional plan. However, the SRP faces persistent operational challenges, notably navigating political instability and governance issues in the Sahel. Additionally, coordinating across agencies with different mandates, budgets, timelines and set-ups complicates efforts to achieve thorough geographical and programmatic convergence. The SRP and other organizations at the HDP nexus need to deepen complementarity, proactively share data and—where possible—seek operational convergence at the village level.
Topic:
Security, Governance, International Development, Peace, Social Cohesion, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa, Germany, and Sahel

105. Solar Power and Environmental Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia

Author:
Ann-Sophie Böhle and Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Abstract:
In Somalia, widespread energy poverty and a heavy reliance on conventional energy sources are deeply linked to ongoing conflict dynamics. Dependence on firewood and charcoal worsens environmental degradation and intensifies competition over natural resources. These challenges are further exacerbated by the effects of climate change and limited access to basic services. To address these interconnected challenges, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Somalia is advancing rural electrification through solar power as part of a broader environmental peacebuilding strategy. This SIPRI Policy Brief explores how the IOM’s approach to solar power and the facilitation of local public–private partnerships (PPPs) can support environmental peacebuilding at three levels: the community level, the local business level and the district council level. By creating local PPP agreements to implement solar power projects, the initiatives aim to foster cooperation, reduce resource-based tensions and strengthen government legitimacy in south-central Somalia. The brief shares learnings from early implementation stages and provides recommendations for donors and implementing organizations seeking to enhance the peacebuilding potential of solar energy projects.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, Solar Power, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

106. Seven Inaccuracies about US Support for Somaliland

Author:
Joshua Meservey
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Amid reports that President-elect Donald Trump’s administration may consider recognizing the self-governing coastal region of Somaliland as independent from Somalia, Somali Ambassador to the United States Dahir Hassan Abdi wrote an op-ed arguing that the US should support a unified Somali state. But the ambassador’s argument relies on numerous inaccuracies. Those are detailed below. 1. Somalia currently has territorial integrity, and recognizing Somaliland would break that integrity. The Somali government does not currently have territorial integrity. Islamist terror group al-Shabaab still controls parts of the country. Somaliland has not been functionally a part of Somalia for decades. And Puntland and Jubaland frequently defy Mogadishu. Arguments premised on fictions are irretrievably broken. 2. The US-Somalia partnership has “bolstered regional stability.” The region is as unstable as it has been for decades. 3. “Clan-based ambitions threaten to fracture Somalia’s national cohesion.” There is no national cohesion to fracture, in part because clans remain the fundamental ordering principle of Somalia’s society. Rather than denying that reality, Somalis should build a highly decentralized order that accounts for their preeminent loyalty to clan. The US and its partners should stop pretending that a strong centralized government can work in Somalia. 4. “The United States must remain committed to Somalia’s sovereignty within its recognized 1960 borders—an enduring policy that has helped stabilize one of the world’s most strategically vital regions.” This is one of Abdi’s strangest claims. Somalia has consistently been among the least stable countries in the world since 1969, and it has in turn caused massive regional unrest. US policy built on the fiction that Somalia is a unified nation with territorial integrity has demonstrably failed. 5. “A divided Somalia would distract the central government from counterterrorism operations and disrupt the successes already achieved.” Again, Somalia is already divided. Also, Mogadishu already allows all sorts of things, usually petty political squabbles, to distract it from fighting al-Shabaab. The Somali government’s easily distracted nature has proven time and again that it is not a competent counterterrorism partner for the US. 6. “A unified Somalia . . . can foster transparency, attract responsible investment, and ensure its people benefit from [the country’s] resources—all while reinforcing the stable environment in which US interests can flourish.” The Somali government cannot achieve these lofty goals because Somalia is not unified. Decades of experience demonstrate the country will continue to be divided for the foreseeable future. And it is not clear that unity in Somalia would lead to transparency or competent governance. Mogadishu currently demonstrates neither of those things. There is no reason to believe it will magically improve, even if Somalia somehow, for the first time in its people’s history, becomes unified. 7. “By helping Somalia strengthen its institutions, enhance security forces, and foster inclusive political dialogue, the United States ensures that clan affiliations enrich national identity rather than fracture it into competing states.” The US and others have formed policy based on this belief for over a decade. It has not worked. Why should it suddenly begin working now? What has changed? Fundamentally, the ambassador’s arguments—and Washington’s current policy toward Somalia—rest on fictions: (a) that Somalia is united, politically or societally, (b) that the government in its current form contributes to regional stability, and (c) that Mogadishu’s actions are a net positive for the US. Washington cannot achieve its goals in the Horn of Africa without first acknowledging reality and building policies that reflect that reality, rather than comforting fictions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Partnerships, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Africa, Somaliland, and United States of America

107. An Analysis of Local Authority Debt and Arrears in Zambia

Author:
Mbewe Kalikeka, Sydney Sihubwa, Liana Chikwekwe, Jones Bowa, Muchimba Sarah Siamachoka, and Mwelwa Banda
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The research study examines the financial health of local authorities and identifies opportunities to foster revenue generation crucial for service delivery at local level. It explores the accumulation of debt and arears for all 116 local Authorities in Zambia, analysing key factors contributing to financial strain and evaluating policy interventions aimed at enhancing fiscal sustainability.
Topic:
Debt, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

108. Country Economic Transformation Outlook (CETO) Report for Zambia

Author:
Mbewe Kalikeka, Margret Mbewe, Joseph Phiri, Thomas Mwimba, and Ignatius Masilokwa
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Country Economic Transformation Outlook Report Brief
Topic:
Development, Economy, Mining, and Middle-Income Countries
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

109. A Better Understanding of Nigeria’s Problems

Author:
James Barnett
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
In a recent post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump instructed the United States military to prepare to go into Nigeria “guns-a-blazing.” The development may be surprising for some, but those who closely follow US-Nigeria relations should not be surprised that the president, or Republicans more broadly, would express concern over violence against Christians in Nigeria. The president cited this violence as his basis for threatening military action on November 1, one day after announcing that he would redesignate Nigeria as a country of particular concern (CPC) for violations of religious freedom. But there are two fundamental problems with the approach the president has outlined: The nature of militant violence in Nigeria is more complicated. First, the premise that Christians in Nigeria face something akin to nationwide persecution is questionable, as Christians and Muslims alike suffer from Nigeria’s rampant insecurity. Nigeria is not, as some believe, the site of a concerted war against Christians. Rather, the country faces something more like a death by a thousand cuts, in which various militant groups in different corners of the country degrade state sovereignty, causing increased violence and extremism. Military intervention comes with serious risks. Depending on their scale, scope, and form, US military operations in Nigeria could recklessly destabilize Africa’s most populous country. On the other hand, operations could be limited in impact and largely symbolic. The latter scenario is more likely but not without its own risks. If the US insists on being a more highly visible military partner than it has traditionally been, its strategy may contradict Nigerian preferences and further polarize Nigerian society. The Nigerian government could have taken steps to reduce the chances of American intervention. But officials have at least made it clear over the past 48 hours that they do not seek to escalate the situation. It is entirely conceivable that President Trump will walk back his maximalist initial salvo and settle for some form of renewed bilateral security cooperation. While this is unlikely to affect the state of Nigeria’s conflicts in the near term, it would be politically agreeable to both governments. The Trump administration and Nigerian officials should both recognize certain truths. The US administration needs to understand that (a) Nigeria cannot immediately and effortlessly dismantle all militant networks within its borders, and (b) religiously divisive narratives will make it harder for the Nigerian government to achieve the necessary political consensus to tackle insecurity. Abuja, for its part, should understand that many in Congress are frustrated with Nigeria, in part because they believe the country has repeatedly failed to utilize American security assistance effectively against terrorists. With sufficient political will, President Bola Tinubu’s administration could use this crisis to (1) reform Nigerian security forces so that they can combat terrorism better, and (2) address some of the conflict’s underlying drivers. This would be the best potential outcome of the current situation, one that is by no means guaranteed. Before considering what this resolution might entail, American policymakers should understand some essential context about insecurity in Nigeria.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Human Rights, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

110. Deadly skies: Drone warfare in Ethiopia and the future of conflict in Africa

Author:
Zecharias Zelalem
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The use of military drones is spreading across Africa, further destabilising countries facing deep tensions between typically authoritarian governments and rebel groups. While these governments have frequently pursued violence over dialogue in the past, the increasing availability of drones makes the military option seem cheaper and easier. In Ethiopia, where drone strikes are widespread, the government’s use of drones has not been enough to dislodge rebel groups from their strongholds. Deadly wars in the Amhara and Oromia regions have dragged on, while the war in Tigray rests on a fragile treaty. Meanwhile, drone distributor countries including China, Iran, Turkey and the UAE do not insist their clientele respect human rights. With no incentive to practice restraint, drone atrocities across Africa appear to be becoming increasingly frequent, causing friction with Western partners. As seen in the case of Ethiopia, this has paved the way for the likes of Turkey and Russia to expand their influence, helping facilitate a diplomatic drift away from the West that has emboldened African governments keen on pursuing war and cracking down on critics.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Authoritarianism, Weapons, Drones, and Warfare
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

111. Diversification nations: The Gulf way to engage with Africa

Author:
Maddalena Procopio and Corrado Čok
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have longstanding political and security interests in north and east Africa. But the late 2010s saw a “geoeconomic turn” in their foreign policy. This has led the three Gulf states to make inroads into sub-Saharan Africa. Energy and infrastructure are at the heart of this new economic involvement. These sectors serve Gulf interests, but they are also where Africa’s needs are greatest. This is improving the image of Gulf states in Africa. This ties in with a trend among African governments to diversify their own international partners and foster competition among them. The EU and its member states remain influential in Africa, but their involvement is declining. The Gulf expansion in Africa could exacerbate this—unless Europeans find a way to respond.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Geoeconomics, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Gulf Nations

112. From ore to more: Mineral partnerships for African industrialisation

Author:
Sarah Logan and Theophilus Acheampong
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The future of European energy and military security depends on secure and diversified sources of critical minerals. Currently, however, the EU heavily relies on supply from China—its strategic rival. Direct sourcing from African countries presents an alternative. But after a long history of seeing minerals simply extracted and exported, African governments are keen to keep more stages of mineral processing and manufacturing, known as value addition, on home soil. The EU has signed critical mineral agreements with several African countries, yet progress on local value addition projects has been slow. And while African countries have ambitious agendas to produce consumer goods, EU authorities see Africa’s role as more limited to mineral processing. To help realise their ambitions, African governments are imposing export restrictions on unprocessed minerals. But to make local value addition economically viable and attractive for foreign investment, more on-the-ground reforms and investments are needed. To be better partners, Europeans should make policy adjustments to encourage European participation in African mineral value chains. In a sector crowded with other powers, most notably China, a genuine commitment to supporting local value addition in African partner countries will make the European offer stand out.
Topic:
Partnerships, Mining, Industrialization, Minerals, and Value Addition
Political Geography:
Africa

113. The power of partnerships: European climate leadership with less America

Author:
Susi Dennison and Mats Engström
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Global governance arrangements are under pressure from the climate action withdrawal of the Trump administration and, in many countries, from leaders’ fears of a growing domestic “greenlash”. The EU has adjusted its topline messaging in response, but most governments remain committed to driving the global green transition. Many countries around the world share the same goals as the EU and want to decarbonise their economies while creating jobs and moving up the value chain. However, in an interconnected world, like the EU, they all need partnerships to underpin their own decarbonisation. The EU and member states should heed partner countries’ requests for: greater trade openness to generate demand for low-carbon products made in the global south; share technology more generously; and establish stronger access to finance in pursuit of equitably shared green growth. These partnerships can contribute to alliances for global governance reform in order to futureproof the multilateral framework for climate action in an increasingly transactional world.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Partnerships, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

114. The bear and the bot farm: Countering Russian hybrid warfare in Africa

Author:
Will Brown
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Russia has made significant inroads in Africa—particularly in Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic and Mali—deploying military operations that, while limited in scope, are often devastating for local civilian populations. At the same time, Moscow has developed a powerful propaganda machine that taps into existing antipathy towards Europe, particularly France, to push African governments closer to its foreign policy objectives. Europeans have no genuine, resolute partner in Africa today. Most governments and elites are skilfully hedging their bets between Europe and Russia. Like-minded Africans and Europeans should push back with comprehensive sanctions on enablers, counter-disinformation campaigns, a re-evaluation of outdated development models, stronger military aid, and support for influencers who can challenge Russia-aligned narratives in local networks.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, Soft Power, Hybrid Warfare, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Europe

115. Final Report: 2023 National Elections in Liberia

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
General elections were held in 2023 in Liberia to elect the president, the House of Representatives, and half the Senate. President George Weah was running for a second term. No candidate won a majority in the first round of voting on Oct. 10, which led to a Nov. 14 runoff between Weah and his closest challenger, Joseph Boakai. Boakai defeated Weah by just over one percentage point, and Weah conceded peacefully. In May of 2023, Liberia’s National Elections Commission (NEC) issued an invitation to The Carter Center to observe the election. Funding constraints prevented the Center from deploying a full observation mission. However, to demonstrate international support for democracy in Liberia and to share recommendations for strengthening the electoral process, The Carter Center deployed an international election expert mission led by Ray Kennedy, who also served as electoral analyst. Nicholas Jahr served as deputy team leader and political analyst, and Mariam Tabatadze was the legal analyst. The team was in Liberia from Sept. 25, two weeks prior to the first round of voting, to the end of November, two weeks after the runoff. Given the mission’s size and limited scope, it did not conduct a full observation of voting or make a comprehensive assessment of the election. Rather, the trio of experts focused on the counting and tabulation process and NEC preparations for both rounds of voting. They observed polling stations in Montserrado County—Monrovia, as well as Upper and Lower Montserrado magisterial areas—during both rounds. Liberia’s NEC successfully administered the 2023 elections, including a presidential runoff, despite a tense political climate and severe resource constraints. The 2023 Revised Farmington River Declaration in which 27 of 31 political parties pledged their commitments to peaceful elections served as a useful tool in maintaining a relatively calm atmosphere during the campaign period.2 The NEC maintained its credibility through a closely contested first round that saw the difference in votes between the first-place and second-place candidates come down to less than half a percentage point, with nearly 80% of the registered electorate going to the polls, followed by a second round in which the difference was less than 2%, with 66% of the electorate casting ballots. The NEC’s strong performance is notable in the current regional and subregional context and positions Liberia to serve as a model for promoting political stability through professionally administered elections if there is the political will to continue to do so. Nonetheless, political will has been a recurring problem in Liberia in relation to elections: For example, despite repeated calls for action, elected leaders over the past 20 years have failed to effectively address the issue of including female candidates on party lists. Likewise, leaders have failed to ensure that electoral districts comply with constitutional requirements to provide equal representation, with many electoral districts dating from 2005 and reflecting enormous disproportionality. Given its record of successfully administering elections in 2005, 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2020, as well as various by-elections, despite declining levels of international support, expectations for the NEC have risen. Still, financial constraints and other limits on its independence have hindered the NEC’s ability to make further progress in professionalizing the institution and consolidating its reputation.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

116. Voices Beyond the Battlefield: Sudanese Civic Actors in Wartime and Diaspora

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
Since April 15, 2023, Sudan has experienced a catastrophic collapse following the outbreak of war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. Over 14.5 million people have been displaced, famine is deepening, and war crimes — including mass killings, sexual violence, and forced displacement — continue with impunity. The collapse of the state has left a vacuum in governance, services, and protection. Sudan now faces what the International Rescue Committee has called “the largest humanitarian crisis ever recorded.” With the collapse of state structures and infrastructure, Sudanese civic actors, both within the country and across the diaspora, have become frontline responders, organizing aid delivery, evacuating civilians, supporting survivors, documenting violations, and sustaining local networks. They operate without protection, pay, or recognition, often under direct threat from armed actors who view civic activity with suspicion or hostility. In the diaspora, Sudanese organizations struggle with legal ambiguity, lack of registration options, and diminished access to funding, yet remain determined to support their communities and return when conditions permit. The international response remains severely underfunded and politically disengaged. The United States had been the largest donor to Sudan, providing over US$1.4 billion in assistance since 2022. The U.S. government’s recent cuts to foreign aid, including to Sudan, have further deepened the gap and marginalized long-term development and peacebuilding efforts there. The international community’s lack of sustained engagement risks normalizing the war and further entrenching those who profit from instability. This report is based on nearly 70 interviews and group discussions conducted in April 2025 with civic actors in Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Chad. It provides firsthand insight into the conditions these actors face, the strategies they use to adapt and survive, and the support they urgently need.
Topic:
Civil War, Diaspora, Democracy, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

117. Voices Beyond the Battlefield: Future Civic Space and Recovery Prospects

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
This second installment of the Carter Center’s report series on the affects of the Sudan civil war on civil actors takes a forward-looking view, highlighting how Sudanese civic actors are beginning to reorganize, engage with emerging local governance structures, and prepare for potential transitions. The Carter Center has monitored the conflict in Sudan since its outbreak in April 2023. In 2024, the Democracy Program launched a remote observation mission based in Nairobi, Kenya, to examine how civic actors are navigating the war, adapting their roles, and envisioning the country’s future. Through one-on-one interviews and group discussions with civic leaders in regional diaspora hubs, the Sudan Observation Mission produced four reports.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Democracy, Peace, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

118. Guyana General Election Preliminary Statement

Author:
The Carter Center
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The Carter Center election observation mission has been in Guyana since late June following an invitation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. The mission is led by Jason Carter, chairperson of The Carter Center Board of Trustees and grandson of the late U.S. President Jimmy Carter. On election day, 47 observers from 21 countries visited 234 polling stations across Guyana’s 10 regions to observe voting and counting. Carter Center observers continue to assess the conclusion of counting and vote tabulation and will remain in Guyana to observe the postelection environment. All assessments are made in accordance with international standards for elections, and the observation mission was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Principles for International Election Observation
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Guyana

119. Urban Refugee Policies and Legislation in Kenya and Uganda: 2025 Stocktake

Author:
Thomas Ginn and Harrison Tang
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Policy for urban refugees in Kenya and Uganda is rarely at the forefront of national discussions, leaving important gaps that could potentially be addressed with engagement from civil society. Based on a series of key informant interviews, this policy paper provides a stocktake of recent shifts in policies, legislation, and practices impacting urban refugees in both countries since 2022. We document several changes, most notably the inclusion of urban refugees in Kenya’s national social security scheme and in local government councils in Kampala, but these initiatives are yet to be scaled. We recommend that organizations advocating on behalf of urban refugees focus directly on access to documentation and, more broadly, prioritize concrete objectives that are achievable under current law.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Resettlement
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, and Africa

120. China's Investment Pivot and Africa’s Industrial Prospects: Any Hope for African “Flying Geese”?

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
This paper examines the changing shape of Chinese investment in Africa, as it evolves from large scale infrastructure toward small scale manufacturing. It looks at the opportunity for the region in the context of a deepening manufacturing labor shortage in China; discusses barriers to that opportunity in both China and the Africa region; and the potential response of Western countries. It may be possible for at least some economies in Africa to benefit from a combination of Chinese investment in manufactured export and processed commodity industries and preferential access to economies including the US and China if geopolitics allow, but there are many reasons this could fail and the geopolitics are increasingly hostile. A backup plan for regional growth would be wise.
Topic:
Debt, Investment, Trade, Industry, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

121. A New Era for Global Health: Can African Countries Agree a New Compact with External Donors?

Author:
Anastassia Demeshko, Tom Drake, and Nadia Yakhelef
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
African health systems are at a crossroads, grappling with systemic challenges including workforce shortages, underfunded infrastructure, and climate-driven health burdens. Volatile financing—driven by unpredictable donor commitments and competing global priorities—has left countries vulnerable to disruptions in essential services. The urgency for reform is amplified by overlapping crises, from pandemic recovery to climate shocks, demanding a reimagined approach to health financing that prioritises African agency and long-term sustainability.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Donors, and Global Health
Political Geography:
Africa

122. Policy Brief 19: Fragile foundations: Niger's Assises Nationales and the challenge of political renewal

Author:
Antje Herrberg
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The policy brief analyses the Assises Nationales de la Refondation held in Niger in early 2025. It explores the process as a national dialogue aimed at redefining the country’s political order following the 2023 military coup. The brief evaluates the legitimacy, inclusiveness, and implications of the dialogue and the resulting Charter of Refoundation, which functions as a transitional constitution.
Topic:
Politics, Coup, National Dialogue, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Niger

123. The Escalation of U.S. Airstrikes in Somalia and the Role of Perceived Threats to the U.S. Homeland

Author:
David Sterman
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In 2025, the United States substantially increased the pace of its airstrikes in Somalia. At the same time, it increasingly cited not just regional security rationales for the increased pace of strikes but also rationales rooted in an assessed potential threat to the U.S. homeland from Somalia—in particular from the Islamic State-Somalia’s recruitment of foreign fighters. This article examines the increased pace of strikes, the rationales that have been cited to explain the increase, and what existing evidence reveals about the potential threat to the U.S. homeland. It also underscores the need for greater clarity from the U.S. government regarding its assessment of the extent of such a threat.
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Al Shabaab, Airstrikes, and Military Operations
Political Geography:
Africa, Somalia, and United States of America

124. Understanding China’s New Counterterrorism Ambitions in Africa

Author:
Jason Warner
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
China has recently been pursuing a much more aggressive stance in African security affairs, including playing a more engaged role in counterterrorism (CT). Where is China engaged in CT in Africa, and by what means? What challenges would China face in engaging more robustly in African CT? Most importantly, why is China newly expressing interest in engaging in the African CT landscape at this particular moment? In the main, this piece argues that despite ostensible rationales related to self-defense of economic interests and solidarity with African states, at its core, Beijing’s primary motivations for entering the African CT space are to diversify its means of influence in Africa beyond its historical “economics-first” approach. Recognizing that engaging in African CT is a high-risk but potentially high-reward activity (which other global powers have recently engaged in with mixed results), Beijing likely believes it has a new genre of CT assistance—less kinetic, more economic, and rooted in equitable partnerships—that represents a fundamentally new and productive means of gaining influence in Africa. Yet, China faces challenges in its African CT pursuits, including reconciling whether its cautious ethos can stomach the turbulent landscape of African terrorism; how to deal with a saturated African CT space; and how not to fall victim to the same pitfalls as other global powers that have recently engaged in African CT. Nevertheless, if China can prove that its cautious non-military-first approach is fundamentally different from existing CT value propositions from external states, Beijing could deeply rival, and potentially replace, Washington as the partner of choice for security cooperation in Africa.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Strategic Competition, Foreign Influence, and Security Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

125. Multidimensional Energy Poverty for Botswana: Does gender matter?

Author:
Thabile A. Samboma, Khaufelo R. Lekobane, and Koketso Molefhi
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The energy-gender nexus is a topical issue that has gained traction among researchers and policymakers. Access to clean energy and gender equality are two of the most crucial sustainable development goals (SDGs) that affect households directly. Notwithstanding this, the gendered analysis of multidimensional energy poverty has been minimal in the empirical literature. Using the 2015/16 Botswana multi-topic household survey, this study investigates the gendered dimensions of energy poverty in Botswana, emphasising the disparities in energy access and affordability between male and female-headed households. We employed the Alkire-Foster (AF) methodology to compute our aggregate multidimensional energy poverty index (MEPI). Overall, we find that in Botswana, the gender gaps in multidimensional energy poverty levels are more than 10% for the poverty incidence and adjusted headcount ratio. This suggests that energy poverty in Botswana seems to be feminised. However, the gender gap in the intensity of multidimensional energy poverty is lower than 3% in favour of femaleheaded households. Finally, substantial gender gaps exist across household demographic characteristics, human capital, economic variables, and geography. The findings suggest that while Botswana has made significant progress in promoting renewable energy access through initiatives such as the Photovoltaic Rural Electrification Programme, gender-specific barriers remain. The study recommends enhanced policies that integrate gender considerations to foster equitable energy solutions, ensuring that all households, irrespective of the gender of the household head, can thrive in a sustainable and energysecure environment.
Topic:
Poverty, Sustainable Development Goals, Energy, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

126. Tobacco Control in Botswana: Effectiveness of Tax Changes in Reducing Tobacco Demand

Author:
Tshepiso Gaetsewe and Goitseone Khanie
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Botswana has one of the highest adult tobacco-use rates in the WHO African Region. Despite measures and policies put in place to control tobacco consumption, there is still a widespread use of tobacco products in the country. This is because demand for tobacco and tobacco products is mostly affected by changes in tobacco prices and related taxes. This study therefore seeks to analyse the responsiveness of cigarette demand to price changes in Botswana. This is done by estimating the conditional price elasticity of cigarette demand using Deaton’s model and the Botswana Multi-Topic Household Survey (BMTHS) data of 2015/16. The cigarette price elasticity of demand in Botswana is estimated to be -0.86. The results indicate that a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes will reduce cigarette demand by 8.6% among smokers. These findings provide the first scientific evidence of conditional elasticity on consumption for policymakers in Botswana. These findings are expected to guide policymakers and those involved in tobacco control in formulating the most effective policies for regulating and controlling the consumption of tobacco in Botswana.
Topic:
Tax Systems, Tobacco, and Price Elasticity
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

127. Enhancing Social Protection Amidst Fiscal Constraints: The Botswana 2025/26 Budget

Author:
Lillian Mookodi
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Botswana has long demonstrated a strong commitment to social protection, with established programmes to support vulnerable populations, reduce poverty, and promote social cohesion. Over the years, these initiatives have played a pivotal role in improving livelihoods and fostering economic inclusion, and reflecting the country’s dedication to inclusive development and social welfare. The 2025/26 budget builds on this legacy by introducing new programmes to improve financial security, child welfare, and housing. These key measures signal Botswana’s strategic shift towards a more inclusive and efficient social protection system, but their long-term success depends on effective implementation, fiscal sustainability, and continuous programme evaluation to ensure delivery of meaningful impact to those who need them most.
Topic:
Poverty, Budget, Sustainable Development, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

128. Budgeting for Effective Anti-Corruption Initiatives in Botswana

Author:
Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Corruption remains a significant challenge to governance and economic development in Botswana. To tackle this issue, strategic budgeting is essential to ensure that anti-corruption agencies, such as the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crime, Office of the Auditor General, Financial Intelligence Agency, and Ethics and Integrity Directorate, have the necessary resources to operate independently and efficiently. This Budget Brief examines how enhancing accountability and transparency in budgeting can improve the effectiveness of Botswana’s anti-corruption initiatives. Its thematic focus is on Phase 1 (Halting the financial haemorrhaging in Government) of the Government of Botswana’s strategy to build an inclusive economy.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Economic Development, and Budgeting
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

129. Egypt’s Expanding Role in the Horn of Africa

Author:
Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Egypt is stepping up its military, diplomatic and economic presence in the Horn of Africa. In recent months, Cairo has signed a series of economic and security agreements with countries in the region and is preparing to deploy troops to Somalia. These developments come at a time when Egypt is locked in a long-standing water dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which was inaugurated in early September this year. At the same time, Ethiopia’s quest for a direct sea access has strained its relations with its neighbors, some of whom appear to be aligning with Cairo to counterbalance Addis Ababa. If not carefully managed, these dynamics could have serious repercussions for regional stability. First, intensifying competition between Egypt, Ethiopia and other powers risks inflaming ongoing conflicts in Sudan and Somalia. Second, deeper Egyptian involvement could further strain Ethiopia’s already tense relations with its neighbours. Most concerning, an Egyptian military presence in Somalia raises the risk of miscalculation and the possibility of direct confrontation between Egypt and Ethiopia. The Horn of Africa, already beset by multiple conflicts and crowded with external actors vying for influence, can ill afford a further escalation of geopolitical rivalries. Instability in the region would also have consequences far beyond its borders. The African Union, together with the European Union, China and the United States, should therefore use their influence, individually or in concert, to encourage Ethiopia and Egypt to return to negotiations on Nile dispute, help defuse regional tensions linked to Ethiopia’s quest for sea access, and prevent Somalia and Sudan from becoming arenas of proxy conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, African Union, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, and Horn of Africa

130. Rethinking Ethiopia's National Dialogue

Author:
Amanuel Dessalegn Gedebo
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Ethiopia is entering a critical period ahead of its 2026 general elections, marked by intensifying armed conflicts, shrinking political space, and a faltering economy. In this context, the government’s flagship National Dialogue process, intended to foster consensus on divisive national issues, risks becoming mere window dressing. While the Dialogue Commission has made progress in convening political actors, its credibility is undermined by the exclusion of key opposition and armed groups, as well as concerns over its independence. This policy brief examines whether the National Dialogue, in its current form, can meaningfully address Ethiopia’s deepening political crisis. It explores the interplay between ongoing civil wars in Oromia, Amhara, and Tigray, the government’s increasingly repressive tactics, and the limitations of the dialogue process. The brief argues that without urgent reforms to ensure inclusiveness and political openness, the National Dialogue may further entrench instability rather than resolve it. It concludes with recommendations for the Ethiopian government and its international partners, including the EU and the Netherlands, on how to recalibrate their approach to support a more credible and constructive path forward.
Topic:
Civil War, Elections, Domestic Politics, Instability, Fragmentation, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

131. The Sudanese army on the battlefield: Strategic context and possible trajectories

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
The Sudanese army recaptured Wad Madani, the capital of Gezira State, after striking the Rapid Support Forces and weakening their position. Using Wad Madani’s strategic location, the army lifted the siege on Khartoum's General Command, recovered signalling equipment and the oil refinery, setting up for future operations in Darfur.
Topic:
Civil War, Armed Forces, Armed Conflict, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and Sudanese Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

132. Nile’s Flow of Tensions: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Impact on Ethiopian-Sudanese Relations

Author:
Hanna Rubinkowska-Anioł and Nagmeldin Karamalla-Gaiballa
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:
Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:
Over the last decade, the Ethiopian project of constructing a dam on the Blue Nile (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, GERD) close to its border with Sudan resulted in creating serious political tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia, with Sudan being involved. Egypt is accusing Ethiopia of attempts to control the water of the Nile, while Ethiopia claims that the power produced by the dam will contribute to the well-being of Ethiopia and its neighbors, most importantly, Sudan. Among many aspects and layers from which the problem of the Nile’s waters and the construction of GERD can be analyzed, there are disputed areas on the Sudanese-Ethiopian border. They are claimed by Sudan on the grounds of breaking the rule of the 1902 treaty, giving the lands to Ethiopia under the condition of not interfering in the flow of the river. This article examines the GERD project and explores in depth the historical, political, and economic significance of the Ethiopian-Sudanese border, with a particular focus on its implications for relations between the two neighboring countries. The article also discusses key issues related to water resource management, historical land disputes, and the geopolitical dynamics of the region, providing a comprehensive historical and contemporary context.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Water, and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Nile River

133. Putin’s New Frontier: The Prospects and Limitations of Africa Corps

Author:
Hanna Notte
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Key Takeaways (1) The emergence of Africa Corps. Over the past two years, Africa Corps has taken over most of the Wagner Group’s former Africa operations, elevating them to the level of official state-to-state relations. The new entity emerged after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny in late June 2023, with the Russia-Africa summit a month later a key catalyst. (2) Focus on the Sahel. Unlike in Libya, Africa Corps’ takeover from the Wagner Group in Mali was marked by hiccups, and the two entities coexisted there somewhat uneasily until recently. Africa Corps embraced new openings in the Sahel, deploying to Burkina Faso and Niger, as well as more recently to Equatorial Guinea. In consolidating its presence in the Sahel, Russia both benefited from and actively encouraged the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States and a deepening and widening of joint activities among the three Sahelian juntas. (3) Wagner in the Central African Republic. In the Central African Republic (CAR), Wagner Group fighters did not sign new contracts with the Russian defense ministry, and the group has continued to operate as Wagner. It remains to be seen whether, and for how long, Wagner can resist the defense ministry’s usurpation of its CAR operations, especially after the formal end to Wagner operations in Mali in early June 2025. (4) Wagner, rebranded. Africa Corps’ emergence appears to have been largely a bureaucratic restructuring and rebranding exercise. The new entity gobbled up many former Wagner fighters and usurped much of the group’s recruitment infrastructure. The Russian military tethered the new entity closer to the military’s chain of command, but seems to not have created any new units for the corps. While the entity’s recruitment campaigns are highly visible, replete with detail on deployment requirements, salary, and benefits, little is known from open sources about its command and manpower. (5) Less nimble and less risk-prone. Africa Corps has thus far prioritized training and routine security assistance for its host countries, compared to the high-risk missions the Wagner Group used to undertake. For its funding, Africa Corps currently appears to rely on Russia’s state budget. In the future, it will likely seek more diverse sources of funding and may even allow new “mini-Prigozhins” to spring up, to engage in profitable business activities to generate funding. (6) A sustainable model? Though worst-case expectations about the fate of Russia’s Syrian bases—namely, that Russia would be ousted from them—did not come to pass after the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, Russia appears to be engaged in efforts to diversify its military logistics to ensure the sustainability of its Africa operations. Should Africa Corps continue to eschew the types of higher-risk missions that Wagner used to undertake, it might face growing competition from other players, such as China, Iran, and Turkey. It also remains to be seen to what extent Africa Corps will make inroads into Togo, Benin, and a number of other potential target countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, Vladimir Putin, Wagner Group, and Africa Corps
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Eurasia, and Sahel

134. The Gravity of Violence

Author:
Mathieu Couttenier, Julian Marcoux, Thierry Mayer, and Mathias Thoenig
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper presents a framework for estimating and simulating a quantitative spatial model of trade and violence. In this new theoretical and empirical setup, designed for the analysis of bilateral flows, we first model the general equilibrium interactions between the economic and fighting margins in a micro-founded setup. We then show how the structural parameters can be recovered from the data in a simple and transparent way. A central element of the procedure consists in estimating a structural gravity equation of violence. Studying continental Africa over the period 1997 to 2023, we test the key predictions of the model and uncover new facts related to spatial frictions and conflicts. Finally, the model is simulated to quantify different policy-relevant experiments in weakly institutionalized contexts where insecurity is pervasive. Positive and spatially-diffusing feedback loops between development and pacification are one of the main findings of our analysis.
Topic:
Development, Conflict, Violence, Trade, and Gravity Data
Political Geography:
Africa and Global Focus

135. What next for African Union peace operations in Somalia?

Author:
Partha Moman
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
This Strategic Update from Partha Moman traces the evolution of African Union peace operations in Somalia, from AMISOM’s deployment in 2007 to the current AUSSOM mission; it addresses the failure of negotiations and strategic vision, the reduction of multilateral intervention, shifting mandates, operational challenges, and political violence dynamics. As security in Somalia remains volatile and funding gaps persist, this paper provides policy recommendations for a strategic reorientation of AUSSOM towards enabling positive political dialogue, improving transparency and cost-effectiveness to foster long-term peace and stability.
Topic:
Peacekeeping, Negotiation, Transparency, African Union, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

136. Somoud, al-Fashir, and the Battle for Sudan’s Future

Author:
Abdel-Monim Omer Ibrahim
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A historic city has fallen, but if the world listens carefully, it may yet rise again as a catalyst for a different path in which power flows from legitimacy, not force.
Topic:
Civil War, Legitimacy, Atrocities, Humanitarian Crisis, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, and al-Fashir

137. Unfinished Revolutions: The Long Shadow of the Arab Spring in Sudan and Algeria

Author:
Metin Özkan and Ettah M. Horma
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
This article examines the enduring impact of the Arab Spring on Sudan and Algeria, focusing on the dynamics that have rendered their revolutionary trajectories “unfinished.” Building on the theoretical frameworks of civil-military relations, authoritarian resilience, and counterrevolution, the study situates both cases within the broader post-2011 political landscape of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The analysis highlights how structural legacies of post-colonial state formation, entrenched military influence, and regional geopolitical rivalries shaped the course of these uprisings. In Sudan, the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019 initiated a fragile civilian–military partnership, ultimately derailed by the 2021 coup, which reignited authoritarian consolidation. In Algeria, the Hirak movement forced the resignation of Abdelaziz Bouteflika but confronted a military establishment determined to preserve its dominance. Comparative insights reveal that in both contexts, militaries acted as decisive arbiters, constraining democratic transitions through tutelary roles and institutional autonomy. External actors also reinforced authoritarian resilience by supporting counterrevolutionary forces. The article concludes that the Sudanese and Algerian cases illustrate the limits of popular mobilization in dismantling entrenched praetorian systems, underscoring the need to reassess democratization theories in light of persistent authoritarian structures in the MENA region.
Topic:
Democratization, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, Counterrevolution, and Authoritarian Resilience
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Middle East, and Algeria

138. Identity, Injustice, and Intimacy: The Making of Sahel Militants

Author:
Chris Mensa-Ankrah
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Militant groups in the Sahel exploit widespread youth isolation and social breakdown—offering young men belonging, purpose, and brotherhood that mimic and replace weakened family and community ties. Traditional Sahelian values of obedience and honor, once stabilizing, are repurposed by jihadist recruiters as moral justification for violence when clan or state authority collapses. Radicalization often follows a predictable psychological path: limited personal agency and strict social conformity in childhood give way to confusion, alienation, and eventual dependence on militant “families.” Sustainable counter-radicalization must focus on rebuilding genuine community bonds and youth inclusion, using local clerics, elders, and mentors to replace the false intimacy that militant groups provide.
Topic:
Radicalization, Youth, Community, Identity, Isolation, Gender, and Militancy
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

139. Exploring the UN’s Interventionist Role in South Sudan: Peacemaking, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding

Author:
Norman Sempijja
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The role of the United Nations (UN) in conflict intervention in Africa has undergone a significant transformation, shifting from a central actor to a more supportive role. Regional organizations, such as the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have taken the lead in mediation and conflict resolution on the continent. While the UN continues to play a crucial part in peacekeeping and peacebuilding, its role is increasingly impacted by fragmented responsibilities, regional political dynamics, and operational constraints. In assessing how these factors have influenced the effectiveness of UN intervention, this study draws the case of South Sudan. Specifically, it examines whether the UN’s peripheral role in peacemaking has directly impacted its ability to implement peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts, or whether broader structural and political challenges are more decisive in shaping its effectiveness. By analyzing the complex interactions between the UN, regional organizations, and the realities of the conflict in South Sudan, this study argues that the UN’s limited role in peace negotiations is not the primary determinant of its success or failure. Instead, the combined effects of institutional fragmentation, competing regional interests, and the unstable political landscape of South Sudan have shaped the outcomes of UN interventions. These findings challenge the assumption that the UN’s peripheral role inherently weakens its impact, demonstrating that its effectiveness depends on how well it navigates these broader structural challenges. This study contributes to the ongoing debates on the evolving nature of international peace operations in Africa and the need for better coordination between global and regional actors to achieve sustainable peace.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

140. The Public Realm, Urban Protest and Peacebuilding: The #EndSARS Protests in Nigeria

Author:
Irene Doosuur Mngutyo
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The potential of ‘protest sites’ for advancing peacebuilding has come under scrutiny with the global rise in popular dissent, especially as the catalytic effect of social media on protests became apparent following the Arab Spring. The symbiotic relationship between the taxonomies of space in the public realm and the potential of physical sites to act as defensible space is questioned in this paper. This is within the context of the EndSARS protests, which occurred from October 11 to 28, 2020, in Nigeria. The EndSARS protest is one example of an increasing tide of political dissent that has highlighted the links between ‘sites’ of urban protests and peacebuilding processes. Features of protest sites were evaluated using observations and measurements. Links between protest ‘sites’ were assessed from the content of four national dailies and X (formerly known as Twitter) chatter using the #EndSARS hashtag, as well as interviews withprotesters and organizers. Findings revealed that most sites used for protest activities could benefit from design imperatives to strengthen their ability to serve as defensible spaces. Recommendations focus on policy for the design of protest sites and peacebuilding.
Topic:
Protests, Urban, Peacebuilding, and EndSARS
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

141. Resolving the puzzle of "reversed favoritism" in African agriculture

Author:
Lennart C. Kaplan
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The political economy literature highlights the redistribution of resources to political support groups - often along regional or ethnic lines - as an axiom of political systems. In contrast to this dominant pattern, Kasara (2007) documents a puzzling result of discriminatory rent extraction by political leaders from farmers in their ethnic home region. Linking a new database on the ethnic and regional affiliation of political leaders to fine-grained survey data, I disentangle ethnic and regional affiliations and show that their intersection explains the phenomenon which I will label in the following “reversed favoritism." More specifically, I provide evidence that agricultural price hikes indeed do not reduce poverty among co-ethnic farmers in the leader's birth region. My results indicate that leaders seem to act politically rational as they only apply this treatment in regions where they enjoy high trust. I show in an exploratory analysis that the counter-intuitive support of discriminatory policies can be explained by transfers in other areas, namely development aid.
Topic:
Agriculture, Political Economy, Ethnicity, Development Aid, and Favoritism
Political Geography:
Africa

142. Rethinking Aid in a Contested World

Author:
Stefan Dercon
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Development aid faces a crisis of budgets, legitimacy, and political alignment. Framed in recent decades as technocratic and benevolent, aid has always been political, shaped by donor and recipient incentives. Its post–Cold War expansion reflected a permissive era of unipolarity and globalization, when Western foreign policy, business, and security establishments provided broad support. That equilibrium has now collapsed. Multipolar rivalry, protectionism, and fragmented domestic coalitions have left aid vulnerable, shallowly supported, and increasingly driven by narrow donor interests. The paper calls for recognition of the need for a globalization 2.0 that enables poorer countries to grow, warning that without such a framework, remaining aid will become more fragmented and ineffective. It also cautions against a euphemistic reliance on “mutual interest,” as evidence of genuine donor–recipient benefits is limited; trade facilitation and post-conflict stabilization are rare exceptions. Finally, the paper advances four propositions: aid must be selective, avoid entrenching dependency, balance short-term results with long-term system building, and support reformers willing to challenge the status quo. Only by acknowledging its political nature and aligning incentives within a reconfigured global order can aid remain relevant to development.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, South America, and North America

143. National Action Plans as Tools for Effective Small Arms Control: Lessons from West Africa

Author:
Luc Chounet-Cambas, Alizée Henry, and Julien Joly
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Guidance provided at the Fourth Review Conference of the UN Programme of Action on Small Arms and Light Weapons in June 2024 underscored the importance of aligning national action plans (NAPs) with sustainable development, security, and gender-responsive policies, in addition to the need for inter-agency collaboration and the inclusion of non-governmental stakeholders in small arms control efforts. While this shift signals a transformative paradigm in small arms control—moving beyond a compliance-driven model rooted in international norms and standards toward a more integrated approach that positions arms control as a tool to advance national objectives in human security, development, and governance—it raises a critical question: how can NAPs be effectively leveraged to ensure this alignment? National Action Plans as Tools for Effective Small Arms Control: Lessons from West Africa, commissioned by the Mines Advisory Group, is a Briefing Paper that examines the current state of practice of NAPs on small arms and light weapons in West Africa, their impact, and existing opportunities to enhance their effectiveness and potential in integrating small arms control into broader public policy frameworks that address development and security concerns.
Topic:
Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Weapons, and National Action Plan
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

144. On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan

Author:
Joshua Craze
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
South Sudan is once again on the brink of war. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is bombing civilians and detaining the opposition, while foreign embassies close and evacuate staff. The Ugandan army has installed itself in Juba, the country’s capital, to assist Kiir’s regime’s suppression of the opposition. Both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese army are also now participating in the conflict inside South Sudan. While Kiir has appointed a successor, Benjamin Bol Mel, he may not have the political capital to take over. The current conflict may be a prelude for a much more destructive civil war. On The Brink: The Politics of Violence in South Sudan—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—examines what led South Sudan to delay elections scheduled for December 2024 and considers the likely ensuing civil war. It focuses on the place of the Tumaini Peace Initiative in South Sudan’s political compact, the effects of the war in Sudan on politics in the country, Kiir’s contested succession, and the violence scarring the region.
Topic:
Civil War, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

145. The Republic of Kadamol: A Portrait of the Rapid Support Forces at War

Author:
Joshua Craze and Raga Makawi
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
After almost two years of war, Sudan is in the grip of a humanitarian and political catastrophe. A conflict between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues to devastate the country. In recent months, the RSF has lost ground, and its efforts to create a government seem likely to come to naught. But what is the RSF, and what can learning about the paramilitary organization tell us about the future of Sudan? The Republic of Kadamol: A Portrait of the Rapid Support Forces at War is a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project. Based on interviews on the ground and with RSF personnel, the paper offers an insight into RSF recruitment strategies, war aims, and command and control problems. To understand Sudan's future, it is indispensable to understand the RSF, and this paper is the first to give a synthetic analysis of the RSF since the war began.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

146. Silence in the Sahel does not Equal Stability

Author:
Nina Wilén
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
The Sahel is no longer on the frontpages. In the past few years – even in the past few months – the geopolitical context has changed radically. The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine understandably turned European attention to the East in 2022. The Israel – Palestine armed conflict which restarted in 2023 and has taken unprecedented proportions has also called for attention, while the last three years of Rwanda- supported rebel invasion in the East of the DRC recently caught the news. In more recent weeks, the new US administration’s deeply disturbing dismantling of national institutions and international order has predictably stolen the headlines. Yet, in the meantime the different crises which have plagued the Sahel over more than a decade are continuing and the situation is worsening. The military regimes which came to power in the latest coup wave in the Sahel region on the promise of quelling jihadist violence have not been able to deliver on this promise. Instead, jihadist groups are expanding across the region, with deadlier attacks against civilians in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, the three states which created the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) in 2023. The Sahel is today the region in the world which is the most affected by jihadist violence. The AES countries are also experiencing a deepening authoritarian turn, as the transitions to democratic elections and return to constitutional order have been stalled with continuous extensions of transitional period and repression against opposition voices. These developments are unfolding within a heavily restricted media landscape, where local independent and foreign journalists and news agencies are either silenced through repression or driven into exile, while civil society faces continued intimidation and oppression, including forced military recruitment, arbitrary arrests and in some cases summary executions. This article analyses the latest developments in the security and political sphere in the Sahel with a focus on the AES states. It examines the expansion of jihadist violence and assesses the political situation. It argues that despite the current geopolitical context and Europe’s decreasing influence, there is still a need for the EU and its member states to stay engaged. It is crucial to closely monitor developments in the region to better grasp the political and security landscape, and potential implications both within and beyond the African continent. This article is the first of a series of two analyzing the shifting political and security landscape in the Sahel. The next article will examine the AES countries’ shifting regional and international partnerships.
Topic:
Security, Authoritarianism, Political stability, Violence, Coup, and Salafi-Jihadism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

147. DRC-Rwanda: Why the 27 June Agreement is not Enough and How CENCO-ECC might Improve the Odds of Peace

Author:
Erik Kennes
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
On 27 June, a Peace Agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Rwanda was undersigned in Washington, witnessed by the US government. The agreement is based on the “Declaration of Principles” undersigned on 25 April by the Congolese and Rwandan Ministers of Foreign Affairs. This is the last in a series of agreements and arrangements concluded over the last 25 years which never resolved the basic problems underpinning the recurrent conflict, notably the foreign security and economic policy of Rwanda, and the structural weakness of the DRC state and security forces. In their conception or implementation, they did not address the fundamental “root causes” of the crisis in the East either. Will it be different this time? Two elements are new: it is the first direct bilateral peace agreement between DRCongo and Rwanda, to a certain extent guaranteed by the US state department. It is concluded between the real decision-makers but ignores most existing procedures and regulations set up after previous crises. Secondly, it considers economic aspects crucial for durable peace, while political issues are simply discarded.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, and Central Africa

148. Setting Up Uganda’s National Mining Company to Boost Sustainable Development

Author:
Andrew Bauer, Thomas Scurfield, and Paul Bagabo
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
A Natural Resource Governance Institute survey of national mining companies (NMCs) provides useful lessons for the newly established Uganda National Mining Company (UNMC), as the Ugandan government and UNMC Board of Directors work to operationalize the company. With a limited commercial mandate, UNMC could play a valuable role in unlocking Uganda’s mineral potential by investing in geological surveys and co-financing exploration to derisk projects for experienced exploration companies. A cautious approach would be beneficial, given the considerable opportunity cost of using public funds and the risky nature of exploration, especially in the early years as the company builds experience. UNMC could learn from other NMCs that have struggled to benefit from minority state equity and reconsider these plans. If it continues to seek minority equity, its strategy for negotiating shareholder agreements and dividend rights will be critical and could involve guaranteed dividends or preferred shares. Regardless of UNMC’s mandate, a clear funding model, along with strong management, oversight and transparency policies and implementation mechanisms, is essential for enabling the company to successfully contribute to Uganda’s sustainable development. The Government of Uganda recently established UNMC as part of its effort to increase the contribution of the nascent mineral sector to sustainable development. In November 2024, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development appointed the Board of Directors to begin operationalizing the company. To support this process, we have compiled the experiences of other NMCs. Most of the more than 62 other NMCs around the world have a commercial mandate to manage the state’s majority or minority equity participation in mines. Operational mandates are less common, primarily because most NMCs lack the technical or financial capacity to efficiently operate mines. While some governments have assigned both regulatory and commercial mandates to NMCs, most have separated these roles to avoid conflicts of interest and reduce the risk of corruption.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Mining, Critical Minerals, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

149. Refining the Strategy: The Economics of Lithium Value Addition in Ghana

Author:
Thomas Scurfield and David Sefa Adjei
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:
Ghana’s plan to refine its lithium domestically should be based on economic feasibility, market outlook and a rigorous cost-benefit analysis. A Ghanaian refinery would currently face limited access to feedstock and high costs compared to global competitors, particularly in China. Excess refining capacity in China and uncertainty about the growth of lithium chemical demand outside China further compound these challenges. A refinery built in the next few years is unlikely to generate much benefit for Ghanaians. NRGI modeling suggests it could cost the government at least USD 500 million in lost revenue, as the refinery would need to purchase Ghana’s concentrate at below-market prices just to break even. It is also unlikely to create more than 200 direct jobs once operational, and the stimulus for other sectors is uncertain. In contrast, the opportunity costs as well as environmental and social harms could be considerable. The government would benefit from a mine-and-monitor approach instead: ensuring that the Ewoyaa mine starts as soon as possible while supporting further lithium exploration, monitoring the evolution of global conditions for lithium refining, and taking domestic steps to improve future refining prospects—such as developing a strategy for byproduct use. Transparency and citizen engagement in the decision-making process are essential to building trust, managing expectations, and fostering a strong investment climate for future lithium refining.
Topic:
Economics, Natural Resources, Mining, and Lithium
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

150. Kenya’s Foreign Policy Towards Europe and Estonia

Author:
Stephen Kimoita
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
Kenya’s foreign policy towards Europe is largely motivated by the need to promote its national interests through trade and investment, as reflected in its 2014 Foreign Policy document (revised 2024). This paper explores Kenya’s relations with Europe and Estonia in areas of security, multilateralism, education, culture, and the diaspora. Despite having already achieved a close partnership, there is room for growth in Europe-Kenya relations. To maximise foreign policy gains, Kenya should fully leverage existing bilateral and multilateral frameworks for cooperation. Meanwhile, Europe needs to customise its exports to Kenya’s needs and pursue well-targeted trade and investment opportunities in areas like manufacturing.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Multilateralism, Investment, Manufacturing, and Trade
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Europe, and Estonia