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11. Coethnics covote in Africa: Studying electoral cleavages with a covoting regression model

Author:
Carl Müller-Crepon and Nils-Christian Bormann
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Ethnicity is an important cleavage in Africa, yet its influence on voting is contested. Existing micro-level analyses often focus on electoral support for a subset of candidates or parties, while meso- and macro-level approaches infer individual motivations from aggregate outcomes. The risk of selection bias arises from the former approach, while omitted-variable bias may result from the latter. Our new covoting regression (CVR) tackles several of these challenges. It estimates the effect of coethnicity on the probability that pairs of voters covote for the same party/candidate while conditioning on other characteristics shared between them. Thereby, CVR mirrors the micro foundations of widely used aggregate indicators, such as the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of party concentration and ethnic homogeneity. Our data consist of dyadic comparisons between respondents from Afrobarometer surveys. Pooling across 27 countries, coethnicity increases covoting intentions by 17 percentage points. The effect of coethnicity is driven by politically relevant groups and covoting for ethnic parties. It is consistent across institutionally diverse countries and at least four times larger than that of other cleavages. Beyond ethnicity, we address key issues in studying electoral consequences of socioeconomic cleavages and bridge gaps between levels of analysis.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Ethnicity, and Voting
Political Geography:
Africa

12. Climate change and child abuse

Author:
Abreham Adera
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Climate shocks strain household resources, increase stress, and weaken protective structures, all of which may elevate the risk of child abuse. Yet little is known about how climate change affects children, particularly in the Global South. This paper addresses this gap by examining the relationship between drought exposure and attitudes toward child beating in sub-Saharan Africa. We combine individual-level data from the Afrobarometer survey with geocoded drought data from the Geocoded Disasters Dataset (GDIS). We use a spatiotemporal analysis that exploits differences in when and where the Afrobarometer surveys were conducted and when and where droughts occurred. We find that individuals living in drought-affected areas are more likely to justify physically disciplining children. These effects are persistent, potentially with no pattern of decay over time. Mediation analysis of causal pathways suggests that drought increases food insecurity, which raises the risk of intimate partner violence (IPV), and that IPV, in turn, significantly heightens the likelihood of child abuse. These findings highlight the broader social consequences of climate-related shocks and suggest that interventions targeting household stress and IPV norms may help mitigate the impact of drought on child welfare
Topic:
Climate Change, Intimate Partner Violence, Drought, and Child Abuse
Political Geography:
Africa

13. The ramifications of aid cuts on refugee lives: case of the Differentiated Assistance (DA) model and the Shirika Plan in Kenya

Author:
Fred Ikanda and Michael Owiso
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
International support has failed to keep pace with the growing numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons, thus creating a financing gap between their needs and available resources. The recent US withdrawal from funding development and humanitarian programs has only compounded this financing gap which has existed for more than a decade. In response to this, the international community – through Agenda 2030, the Grand Bargain, the 2016 New York Declaration, and the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) – has advocated for a shift from seeing refugees as emergencies to integrating them into the host countries' developmental agenda. In Kenya, these policy proposals are most recently being implemented through the Shirika Plan, the Differentiated Assistance (DA) model, and development plans of refugee-hosting counties such as Turkana and Garissa. First, the Shirika Plan is a government-led initiative that was proclaimed in 2023 to realize the socio-economic inclusion of refugees within the local context in line with the progressive provisions of the Refugee Act of 2021. Implementation of this policy is yet to begin as it is pegged on elusive donor funding. Second, the DA model is led by the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the World Food Program (WFP) and is aligned with the Shirika Plan. The preparatory activities for DA were undertaken throughout 2024 and implementation commenced in August 2025. DA seeks to increase refugee self-reliance through livelihood interventions and providing support based on the specific needs and capabilities of different refugee households as opposed to the previous blanket support that was based on refugee registration status. However, implementation has so far only focused on reducing aid, without corresponding investment in self-reliance measures. DA and the Shirika Plan are framed in government and international circles as solutions for addressing funding shortfalls and fostering refugee integration by supporting self-reliance. However, there has been little progress in enhancing refugee self-reliance. At the same time, aid cuts are implemented based on a needs-categorisation of refugee households that proceeds without adequate background information. The lack of alternative livelihoods has exacerbated vulnerabilities and has sparked protests in refugee camps. Emerging evidence points to negative coping mechanisms, including higher school drop-out rates; reported cases of youths joining criminal religious groups; increased conflicts at family level; and rising cases of women becoming sex workers. This Policy Brief highlights the emerging ramifications of implementing DA that is anchored in the provisions contained in the Shirika Plan. The Brief also goes further to suggest recommendations for action to the government of Kenya and the international community. Key policy messages: • There is a need to enhance synergy between UNHCR and the Kenyan government such that the state implements the Shirika Plan alongside DA without premising its implementation on donor aid. • UNHCR needs to obtain more extensive household economic data and involve refugees in deciding who is most vulnerable to more accurately disaggregate refugee households into appropriate categories. • The Kenyan government and international actors need to closely monitor and address potential negative implications of implementing DA and the Shirika Plan.
Topic:
Development, Refugees, Displacement, Donors, UNHCR, and Aid Cuts
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

14. Building social cohesion through livelihood support in climate-related internal displacement settings: evidence from Zimbabwe and Mozambique

Author:
Tomy Ncube and Susan S. Ekoh
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Climate-related extreme weather events are increasingly displacing communities across Southern Africa, with negative implications for social cohesion, livelihoods, and community resilience. Understanding how displacement erodes social cohesion is important for developing strategies for restoring it. Evidence shows that livelihood support interventions, for example, cash‑based assistance, in-kind transfers (agricultural inputs) up to skills development programs, are a pathway for mending or strengthening social cohesion in displacement contexts. Yet, in some cases, they can further fragment it. This requires strategies under which such interventions can be deployed to positively shape social cohesion outcomes. This Policy Brief synthesizes insights from qualitative research conducted from 2023 to 2025 with displaced communities and host populations in Zimbabwe (Chimanimani and Tsholotsho districts) and Mozambique (Guara Guara, Grudja and Praia Nova). It examines how livelihood interventions can either rebuild or further fragment social cohesion, identifies critical factors driving cohesion outcomes, and provides evidence-based recommendations for national governments, humanitarian actors, and development co-operation actors working in climate-displacement contexts across Southern Africa. In Zimbabwe, vertical social cohesion in displacement contexts is eroded by a lack of designated policies on displacement, leading to poor socioeconomic outcomes for displaced individuals; ad hoc recovery and reconstruction efforts that undermine durable solutions and long-term recovery; and a lack of accountability infrastructure that undermines trust in the government. In Mozambique, the slow implementation and unequal distribution of recovery interventions undermine cooperation between communities and the institutions involved in post-disaster recovery efforts. This has led to large-scale returns of people to high-risk areas. Drawing insights from both case studies, we provide key recommendations and conditions for implementing livelihood support to achieve social cohesion in climate-related displacement contexts. Key policy messages • Livelihood interventions can lead to maladaptation if not supported by strong governance mechanisms including policy frameworks and institutional coordination in planning and implementation. • People-centred, area-based approaches to livelihood programming that account for pre-displacement livelihoods and support post-displacement transitions, while benefiting both displaced populations and host communities, should be adopted. One-size-fits-all interventions risk undermining economic recovery and social cohesion. • Horizontal and vertical social cohesion indicators should be embedded in livelihood programs from the outset to assess the social impacts before and after implementation. • Inclusive, participatory decision-making in the delivery of livelihood support programs should be mandated to prevent exclusionary practices that erode trust in institutions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Social Cohesion, Internal Displacement, Economic Recovery, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe

15. Leveraging Remittances for Economic Transformation inECCAS Countries

Author:
Salim Ahmed Vessah
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Remittances are increasingly becoming a strategic yet underutilized lever for economictransformation in the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS). Across Sub-Saharan Africa, remittance inflows reached a record USD 54 billion in 2023. Within ECCAS, theDemocratic Republic of Congo (approximately USD 1.4 billion) and Cameroon (about USD 375million) were the main recipients, while other member states received comparatively modestamounts. Although these flows do not collectively reach USD 5 billion at the regional level, theyalready surpass foreign direct investment or official development assistance in specific countriesand play a stabilizing role in household welfare. However, their developmental potential remainslargely untapped due to limited financial inclusion, high transfer costs, and the absence ofeffective institutional mechanisms to channel remittances toward productive investment and economic structural transformation. At the same time, ECCAS economies continue to grapple with persistent challenges : low industrialproductivity, weak competitiveness, fragile regulatory systems, insufficient infrastructure, and poorgovernance quality. These weaknesses are compounded by high levels of financial exclusion,limited access to affordable credit, and rising unemployment especially among young people andvulnerable populations. Combined, these constraints hinder progress toward the SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDGs) and the aspirations of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 . In thiscontext, better mobilization and strategic use of remittances constitute a viable and largelyuntapped alternative to support economic transformation and resilience.
Topic:
Economic Transformation, Remittances, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
Political Geography:
Africa

16. Improving access to electricity for greater energy justice inEconomic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)

Author:
Salim Ahmed Vessah
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
ECCAS’s growth is constrained by a deep electrification deficit that undermines energy justice,human development, and inclusive structural transformation. Despite its immense energypotential, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) remains one of the leastelectrified sub-regions in Africa. , access to electricity was estimated at just 56.7%, far below thesub-Saharan African average of 72%. This persistent energy deficit fuels domestic energyinsecurity, as millions of poor and vulnerable households still rely on traditional and polluting fuelsfor cooking and heating. The consequences are profound: weakened social services, health risks,reduced productivity, and slowed economic diversification. The impacts span multiple sectors. Inrural areas, health centers lack reliable power for vaccine refrigeration, emergency care, oressential equipment. Households using biomass-based fuels face heightened risks of respiratorydiseases, disproportionately affecting women and children. In education, limited lighting andinadequate digital infrastructure reduce study hours and widen the learning gap. More broadly, unreliable electricity remains a major constraint on industrialization, agro-processing, and private-sector development, weakening the region’s competitiveness and slowing progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals .
Topic:
Development, Industrialization, Energy, Sustainable Development, and Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS)
Political Geography:
Africa

17. From International Fragmentation to Industrial Cohesion:The Missing Link in AfCFTA Implementation

Author:
Salim Ahmed Vessah, Stephane Atangana, and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
As global geo-economic fragmentation accelerates, African economies face rising external shocksfrom supply chain reconfiguration, protectionism, and volatile capital flows. The AfricanContinental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers a strategic pathway to build regional resilience,expand industrial capacity, and strengthen economic sovereignty. Yet, despite early trade growth,intra-African trade remains limited, constrained by persistent non-tariff barriers, regulatoryfragmentation, weak logistics infrastructure, and insufficient productive capacity. Without deeperdomestic and regional reforms, AfCFTA risks delivering trade diversion rather than sustainedindustrial transformation. This brief argues that Africa’s central challenge is not market accessalone, but the absence of industrial cohesion that enables firms to scale, integrate into regionalvalue chains, and compete globally. It proposes a reform agenda focused on accelerated NTBremoval, targeted industrial value-chain development, regulatory convergence, digital tradeintegration, and coordinated continental trade diplomacy. Translating AfCFTA from legal ambitioninto economic performance is essential for inclusive growth, resilience, and long-termcompetitiveness in a fragmenting global economy.
Topic:
Resilience, Fragmentation, Geoeconomics, African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and Global Economy
Political Geography:
Africa

18. Chinese Loans to Sub-Saharan African countries: BalancingDevelopment and Dependency

Author:
Ahmed Salim Vessah
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, China has become sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) foremost tradingpartner and the region’s main bilateral creditor, profoundly reshaping its financial and geopoliticallandscape. Between 2000 and 2022, Chinese lenders extended over USD 170 billion in loans toAfrican countries , with major recipients (such as Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia)each receiving between USD 5 and 40 billion. Today, China accounts for around 20% of SSA’sbilateral external debt , underscoring its strategic importance in the continent’s developmenttrajectory. This Policy Brief argues that while Chinese loans are instrumental in addressing Africa’smassive infrastructure deficit, they concurrently heighten debt vulnerabilities and geopoliticaldependence. The attractiveness of Chinese financing is best understood in relation to Africa’spersistent structural needs. According to the African Development Bank (AfDB, 2024) , SSA facesan annual infrastructure financing gap of USD 100-150 billion, far exceeding the capacity ofdomestic revenues and traditional donors. Chinese loans therefore stand out due to their speed of approval focus on large-scale physical infrastructure, and limited policy conditionality’s comparedto Western lenders. For many African governments, this makes Chinese credit an appealing andpragmatic alternative for accelerating development.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Infrastructure, Trade, and Dependency
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

19. Glocalising Universal Health Coverage in Cameroon:Implications for good governance, equity and inclusiveness

Author:
Constantine Asahngwa
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Despite recent health financing reforms, quality healthcare services remain largely inaccessible tomany Cameroonians with financial barriers being one of the primary reasons. The UniversalHealth Coverage (UHC) program was introduced as a way of enhancing equitable access toquality services, without heavy financial spending for patients. However, rolling out the program inCameroon has raised some conceptual ambiguity as there is no clear understanding of what UHCis all about, including its implementation. Drawing from desk review of policy documents andresearch papers, we argue that UHC has been glocalized in Cameroon and the process hasimplication for good governance, equity and inclusiveness, which are the core values in measuring and assessing its performance. We begin with a presentation of the conceptualization of UHCfrom a global perspective, followed by the glocalization of UHC in Cameroon, its implication forgood governance, access and inclusiveness, and some recommendations for action.
Topic:
Governance, Public Policy, Public Health, Health Insurance, Inclusion, and Equity
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

20. Strengthening Democracy, Deepening Practice, and Shapingthe Future of Governance in Central Africa

Author:
Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Democracy in Central Africa is at a critical juncture. While citizen demand for accountability hasgrown, political instability, fragile institutions, and shrinking civic space continue to underminedemocratic progress. Elections, though increasingly frequent, remain high-stakes events that caneither strengthen legitimacy or expose systemic weaknesses. Ensuring transparency, credibility,and institutional resilience is therefore essential. This policy brief argues that the region’s democratic future depends on translating continentalnorms into national practice, strengthening institutions, and cultivating a civically literate publiccapable of sustaining democratic culture. Without these foundations, reforms risk remainingsymbolic rather than transformative.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Accountability
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa