Number of results to display per page
Search Results
112. Enabling Evolution: The Role of Knowledge Production in the Development of African Unity
- Author:
- Samuel M. Makinda and Angela Leahy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Knowledge is power; by harnessing knowledge production, the Organization of African Unity and its successor, the African Union, have set the continent on a new path.
- Topic:
- Regional Integration, African Union, Regional Politics, and Organization of African Unity
- Political Geography:
- Africa
113. On Senegali Nationhood and African Unity: In Conversation with Mark Deets
- Author:
- Omar Auf and Mark Deets
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- How is Senegal’s recently-elected young president faring in his efforts to navigate a complex local and regional ethno-political landscape? And what echoes from the past inform such efforts? Historian of West Africa answers these questions
- Topic:
- Ethnicity, Interview, African Union, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and Senegal
114. The View from Africa Before and After the U.S. Elections—Q&A with Mark Deets
- Author:
- Omar Auf and Mark Deets
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Trump’s re-election brought massive changes to many aspects of the United States and the world. What led to Trump regaining the presidency? What will the reverberations look like in West Africa? Omar Auf sat with historian Mark Deets to find out
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Elections, Interview, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and United States of America
115. Rule of law in Mozambique
- Author:
- Margherita Bove and Patricia Justino
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the state and evolution of the rule of law in Mozambique, focusing on key dimensions such as voice and political participation, judicial independence and accessibility, corruption, access to basic services, personal security, and property rights. Drawing on Afrobarometer surveys, voting data, and conflict records, the paper offer insights into the perceptions and experiences of Mozambican citizens. The findings indicate a deterioration in institutional trust over the past two decades, alongside declining voter turnout in general elections and increasing election-related and political violence. Despite reforms aimed at improving judicial autonomy and accessibility, the legal system remains affected by inefficiencies and regional disparities. Citizens are often subject to bribery when accessing essential public services, and perception of corruption in key institutions remains high. Concerns about fairness and integrity in the land registration process can also weaken confidence in land security and property rights protection. The paper highlights the continued challenges Mozambique faces in consolidating the rule of law, exacerbated by legacies of conflict, political instability, and uneven socioeconomic development.
- Topic:
- Elections, Rule of Law, Institutions, Survey, and Trust
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
116. How reliable are national accounts estimates of agricultural output?
- Author:
- Sam Jones and Marcelo Mucocana
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Measurement errors in macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP have been widely lamented, particularly in low-income contexts. This study investigates the reliability of one component of national accounts, agricultural sector output. Focusing first on the case of Mozambique, we use a series of 12 harmonized national agricultural micro-surveys to construct estimates of gross annual output in the sector. Compared to corresponding national accounts values for the period 2002–20, the micro-survey estimates are about 50% lower. A decomposition exercise indicates this gap is primarily driven by differences in base year levels, offset by higher rates of inflation observed in survey-based producer prices. Triangulating these estimates using household budget surveys, market price, and FAO production data, we find consistent support for the agricultural micro-survey estimates, suggesting real rates of total GDP growth may have been overestimated by 1 percentage point over the period. A cross-country comparison of national accounts and FAO production data indicates positive differences between estimates of agricultural output from the two sources are not unique to Mozambique, but with larger discrepancies among lower-income countries. Systematic investment in reliable and timely agricultural statistics is essential to track progress in the sector.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, GDP, Macroeconomics, and Survey
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
117. Social protection for Mozambique’s elderly: History, structure, and potential effectiveness
- Author:
- Sara Almeida, Hanna Berkel, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, and Telça Massingue
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria— programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. We estimate that in the best case with zero targeting errors, the PSSB-Elderly programme reaches two-thirds of its target group. However, significant regional disparities persist, including undercoverage in poorer regions. Additionally, we document substantial delays in payments since 2023, as well as various inaccuracies in the beneficiary registry. These findings underscore the importance of simple and robust designs for social protection in resource-constrained contexts. They also suggest that expanding programme coverage towards a quasi-universal subsidy in high-poverty locations merits serious consideration.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Public Policy, Pension, and Payment Systems
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
118. Fiscal policy and commodity price shocks in South Africa
- Author:
- Tumisang Loate and Vincent Dadam
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the effect of commodity price shocks in a commodity-exporting small open economy, and the role of fiscal policy in transmitting these shocks to the rest of the economy. Using South African data, we first estimate an empirical model using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. We then develop a New Keynesian small open economy with labour market hysteresis and commodity price shocks. We find that a commodity price shock typically has an expansionary effect as real GDP and employment increase, which translates into higher tax revenue. The results from our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model match the data. In addition, despite not modelling the tradable and non-tradable sectors explicitly, we find that there is an opportunity cost associated with taxing the commodity sector more than home production. This results in a higher trade deficit and government spending. Consequently, we also explore the role of countercyclical fiscal policy during a commodity boom.
- Topic:
- Economy, Fiscal Policy, Hysteresis, and Commodity Price Shock
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
119. Surviving the storm: How climate-related disasters reshape tax morale in sub-Saharan Africa
- Author:
- Enrico Nichelatti and Abrams Tagem
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Climate-related disasters have increased over recent decades, with severe human and economic consequences. While research has examined their macroeconomic effects and impact on households’ income and consumption patterns, little attention has been given to their impact on tax morale—taxpayers’ intrinsic motivation to comply with tax obligations. This study fills this gap by estimating the impact of climaterelated disasters on tax morale in 26 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data from 2011 to 2021. The analysis considers six climate-related shocks: droughts, earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, storms, and wildfires. We hypothesize that the impact of climate-related disasters on tax morale depends on the specific disasters considered, and that these heterogeneous effects work through two key mechanisms: economic inequality and trust in public institutions. First, they can exacerbate inequality by reducing government revenue, increasing economic hardship for vulnerable groups (through loss of livelihoods), and eliciting unequal policy responses from government. Climate-related disasters can also reduce inequality when associated with increased economic hardship for richer households (by destroying their productive assets. Second, tax morale declines when citizens perceive government responses as inadequate or unfair; conversely, it increases if citizens perceive the government to be responding adequately. Logistic regression results confirm this heterogeneity. Droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms reduce tax morale, while earthquakes and wildfires increase it. Incorporating regional heterogeneity shows that the negative effects of disasters on tax morale are more profound in rural areas. Mediation analysis confirms inequality and institutional trust as key transmission channels. These findings underscore the need for inclusive tax policies and effective post-disaster governance to sustain revenue mobilization in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Tax Systems, and Economic Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
120. Carbon taxation and firm behaviour in emerging economies: Evidence from South Africa
- Author:
- Johannes Gallé, Rodrigo Oliveira, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel, and Edson Severnini
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of how firms in emerging economies respond to carbon taxation, leveraging detailed administrative data from South Africa—a potential trailblazer for other developing countries with limited state capacity amid the growing global push for carbon pricing. We examine the dynamic impacts of the carbon tax on firm-level outcomes—such as profits, sales, capital, and labour inputs—across manufacturing and mining firms, which are key sectors in the context of the carbon tax. Contrary to concerns that carbon taxes may hinder economic growth or reduce employment, our findings show no evidence of negative average impacts on firm performance or jobs. However, this overall result masks significant heterogeneity in the tax’s effects across sectors, driven by the sector-specific design elements of the South African carbon tax. Firms expecting higher effective tax rates may have intensified their use of emission-intensive machinery and depreciated capital in anticipation of the tax. This behaviour appears to stem from firms resolving regulatory uncertainty or seeking to recover costs from stranded assets.
- Topic:
- Employment, Economic Growth, Carbon Tax, and Emerging Economies
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa