Political Geography: Africa - CIAO Search Results

1. Emerging Challenges and Opportu-Nities in Humanitarian Assistance in Mozambique: A Case Study from Cabo Delgados

Author:: Fátima Chimarizeni Papelo
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This paper aims to analyze the emerging challenges and opportuni-ties derived from the humanitarian assistance actions applied in Cabo Del-gado in the context of violent extremism that has been ravaging the province since 2017. This topic is relevant because the traditional concept of huma-nitarian assistance presupposes support for victims of a disaster caused by nature or man-made, and the province of Cabo Delgado presents a growing demand for humanitarian assistance due to the ongoing prolonged violent conflict. In Cabo Delgado, there are victims of a violent, unconventional, low-intensity conflict. More than 1 million people are in need of humanita-rian assistance, of which more than 50% are women and children (OCHA 2021). Along with terrorism, climate disasters, such as Cyclone Keneth in 2019, and the COVID-19 Pandemic, which began affecting Mozambique in 2020, are exacerbating the state of vulnerability of humanitarian victims. Combined, these events force non-state humanitarian actors to operate in an environment characterized by uncertainty, insecurity, and unpredictability. Nevertheless, these humanitarian actors may operate beyond what is defined by traditional humanitarian principles, which concern saving lives and allevia-ting the suffering of humanitarian victims, including developmental actions that may result in the reduction of state power in the humanitarian space and that lead to the implementation of political action by external forces. If prolonged, this scenario may accentuate the weakening of state power. Given this context, one wonders what challenges and opportunities are derived from the humanitarian support process in Cabo Delgado. This paper seeks to reflect on the emerging challenges and oppor-tunities arising from the humanitarian assistance process in Cabo Delgado. Specifically, it sought to a) define what humanitarian assistance is; b) analyze the emerging challenges for humanitarian actors in Cabo Delgado; and c) analyze the emerging opportunities for humanitarian actors within the pro-cess of humanitarian assistance in the region. We started from the hypothesis that the problem of the humanitarian assistance process in the context of violent extremism creates emerging challenges and opportunities for non--state humanitarian actors that are linked to human security, management, and coordination of humanitarian actions.
Topic:: Security, Violent Extremism, Armed Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgados

2. Situation Analysis of the Chissano Government: Domestic Transitions and Economic Pragmatism in Mozam-Bique (1986–2004)

Author:: Ercilio Neves Brandao Langa
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This article analyzes the political situation of Mozambique during Chissano’s Government between 1986 and 2005, as well as the internal and external factors that contributed to the fulfillment or unfulfillment of the government’s objectives. Political, economic, and historical events are observed in order to evaluate the Chissano Government. Situation analysis is a plural methodology that allows interpreting events, facts, and causes, as well as describing the behavior of the actors involved, the correlations of force, and the internal and external interests that influence the course of politics. Another aspect that justifies using this tool is the historical time involved – 18 years between the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century – characterized by transformations, transitions, and dis-tinct domestic, regional, and international political-economic changes. The situation analysis proved to be an effective tool to reach a broader and deeper perspective of the Chissano Government and the national and international context in which it developed. This methodology requires historical knowle-dge of the object of study, its context and political dynamics, the organization of local society, its behavior patterns and social values, as well as its politi-cal groups, their objectives, and interests. The text constitutes a subjective perspective, a point of view on the “Chissano era”, a political, economic, and social period in the history of Mozambique. It is an ex-post-facto analysis, as it is written decades after the events have occurred, and although it limits its scope to a short period of time, it nonetheless covers long and complex socio-economic transformations. Despite systemic changes in Mozambican society, the structure of the country’s politics has remained almost the same, led by the party-state.
Topic:: History, Economy, Domestic Politics, and Pragmatism
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

3. The Evolution of Un Peace Operations from a Human Security Perspective: The Dilemma in the Issue of Western Sahara

Author:: Guilherme Moreira Dias, José Maria Sydow de Barros, and Túlio Pires Barboza
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The question of Western Sahara, “Africa’s last colony”, is quite pecu-liar in the context of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations, when compared to other ongoing missions, and it is also quite unique from a geo-political point of view since the international community differs regarding this territory (Barros 2020).In this context, this article seeks to address the following issue: why didn’t the evolution of UN peace operations, which occurred after the expan-sion of the international security agenda and the emergence of the concept of human security, provide any significant change in the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO)? We will consider the hypothesis that, although there is a consensus at the international level on the importance of the concept of human security, there has been no significant change in MINURSO’s mandate, such as the incorporation of new assign-ments, due to Morocco’s close relationship with some permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC), namely France and the United States.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Africa and Western Sahara

4. Contemporary Terrorism: A Theoretical Perspective

Author:: Yoslán Silverio González
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Studying the impact of terrorism on international relations is of vital importance due to the implications not only local and regional but also within the international system. The phenomenon of terrorism is not exclusive to a region or a country, it can affect everyone in indirect ways. In this sense, it crosses borders and does not understand nationalities. The most dangerous thing is the treatment given to it in international forums, multilateral orga-nizations, and the media since it is presented as a threat to security, but to legitimize military actions by Western powers or to delegitimize governments “not prone to the West”.This article is based on a conceptual proposal that helps to understand the phenomenon of terrorism from a non-Western perspective, criticizing the positions of the United States in this regard. The main objective is to deepen the debate around the concept of terrorism, its erroneous link to Islam, and to nationalist and/or revolutionary movements. It is also pertinent to see how it has been legally defined by international law, through resolutions, conventions, and protocols of different multilateral organizations, including the African Union (AU).
Topic:: International Relations, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Global South, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

5. Asia’s Growing Global Influence: A Study of India’s Africa Policy

Author:: Hamdy A. Hassan
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The 21st century could become an Asian and African century, which will result in a radical global transformation of the world. Thus, the past decade has witnessed a large Asian presence in Africa, especially, China, India, Japan, and South Korea. Not surprisingly that the rise of Asia in global politics has worried the traditional Western powers. Analyzing contemporary Asian approaches to Africa should be performed through their historical contexts, in particular the history of competition and rivalry between Asian rising powers. It is no secret that this point has not been adequately addres-sed in previous studies on African-Asian relations (Iwata 2019). This state of rivalry is reflected in the African policies of major Asian countries. For example, the Sino-Indian conflict and the Sino-Japanese conflict, in addition to the Taiwan issue, have definitely affected these countries’ interactions with Africa. In contrast to European policies towards Africa after the founding of the European Union, there is no consensus framework for Asian international relations. The experience of struggle against colonialism and engagement in the Non-Aligned Movement represented the most prominent components of the mutual relations between Asia and Africa, especially since the Ban-dung Conference in 1955 (Adem 2017). When the Cold War ended, Asian countries began to achieve high and rapid rates of economic development. Hence, the Asian countries that previously received development aid have become among the most important international donors. This means that the concept of “donor powers” has undergone a major change that it is not limited to Western industrialized countries (including Japan). Perhaps all of this requires studying and analyzing Asian-African relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Global South, Donors, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:: Africa and India

6. Strengthening Peace and Security in West Africa: A Conversation with Anthony Antem

Author:: Denis Foretia
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:: As regional and global challenges related to peace and security continue to evolve, collaboration and knowledge-sharing remain critical to fostering sustainable solutions. The ReCAP Final Regional Conference, taking place in Dakar, Senegal, from February 10-11 2025, brings together experts, practitioners, and researchers from across West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin to reflect on lessons learned in conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and the fight against violent extremism. In this insightful conversation, Anthony Antem (AA), Head of the Conflict Prevention Unit at the Nkafu Policy Institute, discusses the peace and security landscape in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin. He highlights Nkafu’s contributions to the ReCAP project, shares expectations for the conference, and reflects on the importance of regional collaboration in fostering sustainable peace. The discussion is led by Ayukmba Nkonghonyor (AN), Senior Communications Manager at the Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace, Interview, Countering Violent Extremism, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

7. The Mattei Plan One Year On

Author:: Filippo Simonelli
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 28-29 January 2024, the Italian Senate hosted the Italy-Africa Summit, bringing together 21 heads of state and government from African countries, along with other representatives of African, European and global organisations. The African representatives were gathered by the announcement that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni would publicly present the Mattei Plan, a project with which the Italian government wants to redesign relations with the continent based on “equal-to-equal” collaboration. A year later, it is possible to take a first stock of announcements, projects and weaknesses that have emerged so far.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Public-Private Partnership, Collaboration, and Mattei Plan
Political Geography:: Africa, Italy, and North America

8. Building Ambition in the Run-up to Belém: Italy’s G7 Presidency on Climate and Energy

Author:: Margherita Bianchi and Chiara Scissa
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: A main priority of the 2024 Italian G7 presidency was to build stronger partnerships with African countries across a number of policy areas, including climate and energy. Italy pushed forward several G7 initiatives to tackle the adverse effects of climate change and resource scarcity in developing regions as well as to enhance energy access in Africa. Despite the relevance of these pledges, it is still unclear how these initiatives can align with, and maximise the impact of, existing climate- and energy-related projects set out in other fora. Still, the Italian G7 was successful in shedding light on the need for stronger intersectionality in G7 processes – finance, climate, infrastructure, food – and in advancing synergies with parallel G20 and climate conferences of the parties (COP) discussions. Canada, South Africa and Brazil, respectively holding the 2025 G7, G20 and COP30 Presidencies, can build on the lesson of the Italian G7 presidency, especially in light of the decreasing attention that major powers such as the United States are paying to multilateral governance regimes.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, G20, G7, and Energy
Political Geography:: Africa and Italy

9. Botswana land policies, colonial legacy, socio-economic injustice and the politics of populism

Author:: Sheila Khama
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: This briefing highlights the key challenges and policy recommendations related to Botswana’s land tenure system, with a particular focus on the government’s recent acquisition of land from the Tati Company and its implications for land governance and socioeconomic justice. Historically, Botswana's land tenure system evolved through pre- and post-colonial eras, divided into three categories: communal (tribal), state (formerly Crown), and freehold land. Despite minimal white settler presence compared to other African nations, land ownership by former colonial settlers remains a sensitive issue, raising questions about socioeconomic equity. A 2023 government purchase of 45,000 hectares of freehold land from the Tati Company reignited debate on land ownership and absentee landlords, as well as urban land shortages. The transaction, while symbolic, was criticised for failing to address deeper land access issues. The purchase underscored ongoing tensions around land rights and the state’s need to ensure equitable land distribution and effective use.
Topic:: Post Colonialism, Populism, Socioeconomics, and Land Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

10. Leveraging 4IR for Governance and Urban Development in Johannesburg

Author:: Mmabatho Mongae
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Johannesburg’s ability to harness the transformative potential of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is hindered by persistent governance and administrative weaknesses. While the city scores well for service delivery and economic development, its poor rankings in planning, leadership, and administration on the Governance Performance Index suggest challenges in execution and institutional efficiency. While Johannesburg has demonstrated foresight in adopting 4IR policies – such as the Smart City Strategy – these efforts risk being undermined if governance bottlenecks remain unaddressed. This briefing highlights the critical role of strong leadership and efficient administration in ensuring that 4IR-driven initiatives do not exacerbate inequality, but instead respond to Johannesburg’s urban challenges. To maximize the benefits of 4IR, Johannesburg must strengthen governance structures, improve policy coordination, and foster equitable implementation, ensuring that technological advancements enhance service delivery, economic growth, and urban resilience for all residents.
Topic:: Governance, Economic Growth, Fourth Industrial Revolution, and Urban Development
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Johannesburg

11. A silver lining? The US aid freeze should spur Nigeria to greater self-reliance

Author:: Julia Bello-Schunemann
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Foreign aid has never been the solution to Nigeria’s multiple development challenges. However, the halt to US development assistance1 and the de facto shutdown of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will cause additional hardship for Nigeria’s most vulnerable. Modelling based on the International Futures model (IFs)2 , a forecasting platform housed at the University of Denver, suggests that the decision could push approximately 700 000 additional Nigerians into extreme poverty by 2030. The health sector is disproportionately affected by the freeze as it depends excessively on US aid, primarily for the fight against HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases. Nigeria is one of 10 countries globally that are most reliant on US funding3 for HIV medicines. The US policy shift is a wake-up call for the Tinubu administration to rise to the task of mobilising domestic funds to provide essential services to the population.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, USAID, and Health Sector
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, Nigeria, and United States of America

12. Enhancing Local Governance: How the private sector can support data capacity in South Africa’s municipalities

Author:: Stuart Morrison and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: According to the World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Index1 , South Africa ranks among the highest on the African continent. This strong foundation positions the country at the forefront of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies, particularly in leveraging government and open-access data to address national and subnational challenges. Cities like Cape Town and eThekwini have established Open Data Portals (ODPs) – online open-access data repositories that enhance transparency, improve service delivery tracking, and help identify pressing socioeconomic and infrastructure challenges. These portals not only benefit municipal decision-making but also provide businesses with valuable datasets to identify investment opportunities, market trends, and areas for social innovation.2 Despite these benefits, South Africa faces challenges in expanding and sustaining ODPs, particularly at the local government level. This presents a unique opportunity for the private sector to support local governments in the development and maintenance of ODPs. Using Cape Town and eThekwini as case studies, this report examines why private sector involvement in OPDs is crucial and how such partnerships can strengthen local governance, drive economic innovation, and foster inclusive urban development.
Topic:: Governance, Private Sector, Data, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

13. Oil and the Cameroonian Economy: A Story of Unfulfilled Potential

Author:: Léonce Ndikumana, Hans Tino Mpenya Ayamena, and Juste Lokossou
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:: While Cameroon is one of the most endowed African countries in a wide range of overground and underground natural resources, it has struggled to leverage these resources to secure a decent living standard for the majority of its population. Instead of boasting impressive development outcomes, Cameroon is among African resource rich countries that are known for suffering high financial hemorrhage through capital flight. In a sense, capital flight from Africa has become a chronic manifestation of the ‘resource curse’ that tends to plague countries that are endowed with vast amounts of resources in a context of poor institutions and weak regulatory frameworks. This study provides a detailed analysis of the historical emergence of an externally dominated oil sector and the institutional and regulatory arrangements governing the sector to shed light on the causes of the country’s failure to fulfill its potential considering its impressive resource endowment. The evidence may shed light on strategies to usher a new path towards a Cameroonian economy beyond oil.
Topic:: Oil, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

14. Building Critical Minerals Cooperation Between the United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:: Gracelin Baskaran
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is one of the world’s most resource-rich countries, and in 2024, it attracted the largest volume of mineral exploration investment in Africa. Enhancing U.S.-DRC cooperation is critical to counterbalance China’s dominance. The United States has historically underinvested in commercial diplomacy in the DRC, while China has established control over key mines through state-backed financing and infrastructure-for-resources deals. This brief answers two questions: First, how can the U.S. government utilize its resources to maximize impact in this sector? And second, what reforms can the DRC government implement to attract investment? Building the bilateral minerals partnership will require a suite of bilateral diplomatic, financial, and legislative reforms.
Topic:: Human Rights, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, United States of America, and Democratic Republic of Congo

15. Whom do African election campaigns contact? And does it matter?

Author:: Robert Mattes, Matthias Krönke, and Sarah J. Lockwood
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Canvassing is an important way in which political parties around the world raise awareness and connect with voters. Despite this, the literature on parties in new democracies, and Africa in particular, has tended to overlook this form of activity, focusing instead on vote buying, mass rallies, and meetings. In this paper, we use public opinion survey data from Afrobarometer and the Comparative National Elections Project to show that overall rates of canvassing in Africa are similar to other new, as well as many established, democracies. The data also challenge several dominant views of party campaigns in the Africanist literature. First, African parties do not concentrate primarily on turning out their base, rather than reaching across the partisan divide. Indeed, the opposite is the case. African parties expend more energy contacting nonpartisan independents and cross-partisans, and thus make a potentially meaningful contribution to the supply of multiparty competition. Second, the vast majority of contacts occur without any clientelist exchanges of material goods between parties and individual voters. And third, while incumbent parties enjoy canvassing advantages over opposition parties in around one-third of the surveyed countries, opposition parties (viewed collectively) match the party in power in terms of the ground game in another third, and enjoy higher rates of contact in yet another third.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Campaigning
Political Geography:: Africa

16. Proximity to riots: Spatial exposure and attitudes toward the police in Africa

Author:: Souleymane Yameogo
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Riots have devastating consequences for communities, including the destruction of infrastructure, businesses, and human lives. The police, tasked with restoring order, are often perceived as either protectors or sources of threat and incompetence. This research investigates the impact of riot exposure on public trust in the police by incorporating both temporal and spatial dimensions of exposure, diverging from previous studies that focused solely on temporal effects. Using the terror management theory (TMT) framework, extended to inter-group conflict, this study conceptualises the police and the public as distinct groups whose behaviours and attitudes may conflict during riots. Matching geocoded Afrobarometer data with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and employing a spatial difference-in-differences analysis, the study reveals a complex relationship between riot exposure and public trust in the police. While exposure to riots negatively impacts trust among residents living closer to riot sites – driven by heightened anxiety and direct exposure to violence – it increases trust among those living farther away. Furthermore, riot type and severity play crucial roles. Mob violence, with its chaotic nature, tends to bolster trust in the police, while violent demonstrations, which are more organised and often pursue political goals, do not. Moreover, lethal riots erode public trust in police more than non-lethal ones do. These findings underscore the importance of context-sensitive policing strategies that address the security concerns of riot-affected communities while maintaining trust across diverse populations. Policy makers must balance suppressing violence with building resilience and protecting vulnerable communities.
Topic:: Political Violence, Governance, Law Enforcement, Institutions, Police, Professionalism, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Africa

17. Allocating international loss and damage finance through national climate funds: prospects for African LDCs

Author:: Mariya Aleksandrova, Washington Onyango Kanyangi, Assouhan Jonas Atchadé, Joanes Atela, and Charles Tonui
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: The new loss and damage funding framework under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) emphasises the importance of channelling support through national systems and mechanisms. This approach could prove particularly challenging for African least developed ountries (LDCs), which have been prioritised for support. These countries remain confronted with major challenges to access and utilise international climate finance, especially through direct access. National climate funds (NCFs) can have a potential role in delivering international loss and damage finance to African LDCs that is in line with their national priorities. NCFs can be defined as entities mandated to finance the implementation of national climate strategies and to manage and/or coordinate domestic and international sources of climate finance. NCFs can enhance the institutional capacities of countries by supporting the development of loss and damage strategies, facilitating access to international funding, aligning resource allocation with local priorities, and ensuring the effective tracking of loss and damage finance. This Policy Brief explores the role of NCFs in the evolving global loss and damage finance architecture with a focus on African LDCs. We examine the design features of five NCFs against criteria for assessing their relevance to support measures that address loss and damage. The studied NCFs are: the Benin National Fund for Environment and Climate, Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy Facility, Burkina Faso’s Intervention Fund for the Environment, the Mali Climate Fund and the Rwanda Green Climate Fund. Key policy messages • Despite that only a limited number of African LDCs have established NCFs, these demonstrate their potential to channel loss and damage funding, especially for environmental rehabilitation and climate-resilient recovery efforts. Particular strengths relate to their role in priority sectors for climate change adaptation and in relation to biodiversity loss, drought, land degradation and desertification. • Existing NCFs in African LDCs have inadequate mandates and capacities to manage the complex funding needed for loss and damage. An emerging issue is their presently limited role in linking climate and disaster risk finance. • The NCFs of African LDCs can be instrumental to promote coherence and complementarity with other funding sources at the national level. Countries must establish comprehensive legislative, policy and regulatory frameworks to define the institutional roles of NCFs in loss and damage response, supported by international funding to strengthen their institutional capacities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Climate Finance, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Africa

18. Securing a development-friendly US trade policy: the urgent need for an AGOA revamp

Author:: Wolfgang Britz, Zoryana Olekseyuk, and Tim Vogel
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: In times of heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, it is increasingly vital to secure a development-friendly approach toward African countries. They are among the most vulnerable to climate change, conflicts and pandemics, yet are also gaining geo-economic significance. Given the expiry of the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in 2020 and the upcoming expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in September 2025, Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries urge policymakers to timely reauthorise and upgrade the non-reciprocal trade programme to improve market access to the US and ensure long-term support for sustainable development across the African continent. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 was introduced to Congress with bipartisan support, the election of Donald Trump and his “America First” approach have increased doubts about a swift extension of AGOA. This policy brief examines the potential effects of the expirations of GSP and AGOA using a multi-region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. By simulating the shift from duty-free to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) treatment, we find the following: All in all, aggregated effects over all countries are rather muted while some specific countries face strong losses. Whereas bilateral exports of AGOA-eligible countries to the US decline by 3.7%, their total exports fall by only 0.1%, with real GDP remaining almost unaffected. Looking more closely, specific SSA countries would face high bilateral losses: The most substantial reduction of exports to the US occurs in Lesotho (-35%), Malawi (-25%) and Kenya (-16%), while welfare decline is the highest in Lesotho and Mauritius. The most affected sectors are sugar, wearing apparel, leather, dairy products, and beverages and tobacco. The limited aggregate effects of a loss in trade preferences are mainly driven by relatively weak ties of SSA to the US and rather low US MFN tariff rates. This highlights the limited effectiveness of the AGOA preference scheme, indicating that its renewal should go hand in hand with a comprehensive modernisation of the programme. While the AGOA Renewal and Improvement Act of 2024 acknowledges this, it still falls short of modernising the programme in some key areas. To ensure long-term benefits for SSA economies, we recommend: • A swift reauthorisation for a longer period, incorporating continuation provisions to reduce future uncertainty. • More transparent and predictable eligibility reviews, with a possibility of partial exclusion for non-compliance, would also help mitigate uncertainty. • Expansion of rules of origin, which is crucial for stimulating intra-continental trade and enhancing value addition within SSA. • Widening the programme’s scope by addressing, for example, digital trade, services, non-tariff measures, regulatory cooperation and investment facilitation.
Topic:: Development, Exports, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and United States of America

19. Overcoming silos for One Health: key determinants of One Health governance platforms in low- and lower middle-income countries

Author:: Christoph Strupat
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This study addresses a critical gap in One Health governance literature by providing a comprehensive review of cross-sectoral One Health governance platforms in low- and lower-middle-income countries across Asia and Africa. These platforms are pivotal for building resilience and improving governance at the human–animal–environment interface. Using a scoping review methodology, the study identifies 34 One Health platforms established across 52% of these countries, with a primary focus on zoonotic diseases and a growing emphasis on antimicrobial resistance and food safety. A polycentric governance lens was applied to analyse the interplay of authority, resources and information in shaping platform functionality. Key findings highlight that authority imbalances and single-sector dominance undermine stakeholder engagement, insufficient financial and human resources hinder operational capacity. Furthermore, weak data-sharing protocols limit timely coordination and evidence-based decision-making. The review identifies critical entry points for enhancing platform efficacy: clarifying governance frameworks, investing in cross-sectoral human capacity-building and strengthening data-sharing infrastructures with robust protocols and interoperable platforms.
Topic:: Development, Governance, and Public Health
Political Geography:: Africa and Asia

20. Feminists’ perspectives as transformative levers in Ghana

Author:: Fidelia N. A. Ohemeng, Deda Ogum, Deborah Tayo Akakpo, and Dorcas Coker-Appiah
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: Ghana is a multi-party, multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, with a dominant influence of socio-cultural norms and practices that impact negatively on women in their everyday lives. Most Ghanaians are subject to customary law which discriminates against women, even though Ghana practises legal pluralism. The overall aim of the study is to explore and analyse contemporary feminist perspectives and organising in Ghana to demonstrate how they can be used as levers for transformative change for greater equality and sustainable development. This was a cross-sectional and fully qualitative study involving 35 feminists and women’s rights advocates between the ages of 37 and 80+ years, with the majority (n=25) having over 20 years of experience and relevant postgraduate degrees. Data collection, analysis and conceptualisation were guided by the gender-transformative approach and the gender at work frameworks. Our findings show that gender inequity occurs in both formal and informal spaces. Strongly held socio-cultural norms emanating from patriarchy influence women’s daily lives, and the decisions made within sub-national and national legislature. Feminist strategies span general awareness creation, through lobbying, writing and reviewing of content for policies and laws, increasing the visibility of bills to picketing to ensure the passage and implementation of applicable laws or policies. Participants consider their strategies successful despite challenges such as backlash, burnout, and the lack of funding for their activities.
Topic:: Civil Society, Education, Feminism, Sustainable Development, Gender Equality, and Customary Law
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

21. Intersecting constraints: exploring labour market barriers for urban women in Sub-Sahara Africa

Author:: Alexander Stöcker
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:: This study examines the determinants of female labour force participation (FLFP) and female wage employment (FWE) of urban women in four SSA countries: Benin, Senegal, Uganda and Zambia. Using extensive micro-level data and a unified empirical framework, we investigate the multitude of constraints women face in both these dimensions. The methodology tries to bridge the drawbacks of typical macro-level cross-country studies and detailed country case studies, enabling direct comparisons over time and across countries. Key findings highlight substantial cross-country heterogeneity in barriers to female employment, including education, household wealth, motherhood, and male breadwinner norms. While higher education consistently enhances FLFP and FWE, motherhood negatively affects wage employment more persistently than labour force participation. Interaction effects between barriers, such as motherhood and male breadwinner norms, underscore their compounded impact. Additionally, local labour market conditions, namely the variety of occupations available, moderate these barriers, amplifying disadvantages for women in labour markets with higher levels of occupational variety. The study emphasises the importance of context-specific policy interventions. Recommendations include vocational training in Benin, advocacy for shifting restrictive norms in Senegal, targeted support for labour market transitions in Uganda, and addressing male breadwinner norms in Zambia. Future research should delve deeper into how labour market transitions influence female employment and how negative consequences can be remedied.
Topic:: Women, Employment, Labor Market, and Wages
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Senegal, Zambia, Benin, and Sub-Saharan Africa

22. Halting Genocide in Sudan

Author:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: In January 2025, the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published a report, “History is repeating itself in Darfur in the Worst Possible Way”: Halting Genocide in Sudan (PDF). This report focuses particularly on ethnically targeted mass atrocities in Darfur committed since the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in April 2023. It also assesses future risks, particularly as the rise in identity-based targeting by both the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces increases the risk of further mass atrocities. On January 7, 2025, the United States Department of State determined that genocide is being perpetrated in Darfur by members of the RSF, a powerful paramilitary group, and their allied militias. This determination is a somber acknowledgment of the horrific crimes endured by communities who experienced genocide 20 years ago and have been neglected for too long. This genocide is ongoing. Civilian protection must be an urgent priority for the US government and the international community. This report offers policy options for the US and other governments—acting individually and as part of regional and international bodies—to halt mass atrocities, bolster accountability mechanisms and local documentation efforts, and protect civilians from harm. These actions should include increased pressure on states that provide financial support to the RSF, securing pathways for humanitarian aid, and prioritizing civilian protection, including by supporting locally-led prevention and protection efforts.
Topic:: Genocide, Armed Forces, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Darfur

23. Intermediary models to advance locally led humanitarian action

Author:: Alejandro Posada, Alice Obrecht, Courtenay Cabot Venton, Sarah Selby, and Edith Macharia
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: This paper summarises the most promising models for intermediary structures that support locally led action in humanitarian settings. This includes locally led intermediary structures (both LNAs acting as intermediaries and locally owned/ managed pooled funds) and reformed international intermediary structures that are most conducive to locally led action. The examples provided in this paper were identified through three short country case studies undertaken by ALNAP (focused on Sudan, the Philippines and Myanmar) and existing research on local and international intermediaries by the Share Trust. This paper aims to focus on examples that are not well known or have been underrepresented in existing studies, and are therefore illustrative rather than exhaustive. A separate annex provides a more detailed account of local intermediary examples identified in this study, including their models, challenges, scope and the opportunities they present. Further useful examples could be identified in a more thorough review.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Reform, and Localization
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Asia, Philippines, and Myanmar

24. Ghana’s Pathway to AI Governance and Its Implications for Africa

Author:: Thompson Gyedu Kwarkye
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:: Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming various sectors, offering the opportunity for economic growth and societal progress in Africa. However, it poses several risks that may disproportionately impact the continent. African countries are developing governance frameworks to navigate these concerns. Ghana’s 10-year National Artificial Intelligence Strategy emphasizes innovation, talent development and addressing AI-related risks through ethical and regulatory frameworks. It integrates several ethical dimensions to provide a test case for others on the continent. African governments must adopt a more human-centric governance approach, invest in local talent and foster inclusive AI development to avoid technological dependency while mitigating AI risks and maximizing its benefits. The dominance of AI by major technology companies highlights disparities between the more prosperous and resource-poor African countries. Bridging these gaps is crucial to ensuring that Africa can influence the future trajectory of AI development.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Economic Growth, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

25. Ethnic Conflicts in Ghana: Colonial Legacy and Elite Mobilisation

Author:: Beenish Ayub
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: This research paper examines the relationship between ethnic conflicts in Africa and their roots in the colonial legacy and elite mobilisation, focusing on the case study of Ghana by taking into account the regions of Dagbon and Bawku as examples. It examines how the dynamics of ethnic tensions in the post-colonial age have been influenced by the colonial past of Africa, which was marked by arbitrary borders, dividing policies, and preferential treatment of particular ethnic groups. The paper also looks into how Ghana’s political elites use ethnic tensions for personal advantage, escalating disputes and impeding national unity. This study intends to provide a thorough knowledge of the complex interaction between colonial legacies, elite mobilisation, and ethnic conflicts in Ghana and Africa by analysing historical documents, academic writings, and empirical data.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Elites, Mobilization, and Post-Colonial
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

26. Africa Through the Lens of Chaos and Complexity

Author:: Fernando Jorge Cardoso and José Manuel Félix Ribeiro
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Africa cannot be looked at as a big country. The Continent is politically organised into 54 states, which are very diverse entities with different histories within and without their borders. Almost all these states are multinational - multiethnic places with different regions, and when emergency or crisis situations arise, people’s “sense of belonging” is usually in the family, in the tribe, in the language, or in the religious group, not in “the state”. However, notwithstanding this reality, many analyses and positions are still based on neo-realist readings, assuming the existence of rationalities that do not exist or are not strong enough to understand the dominant realities. The article applies some of the tools of the Complexity theory to look at the current African situation and politics.
Topic:: Development, Politics, and Complexity
Political Geography:: Africa

27. Forbidden African Legacies in the Dominican Republic

Author:: Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:: Despite the ongoing criminalization and racist persecution of African tradition, from the criminalization of Vodou to restrictions against Gagá, Afro-Dominican culture persists.
Topic:: Culture, Racism, Tradition, Criminalization, and Vodou
Political Geography:: Africa, Latin America, and Dominican Republic

28. South Sudan’s peace process stagnates as violence grips Greater Upper Nile region

Author:: Stefan Bakumenko
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In September 2024, South Sudan’s government postponed elections until 2026.1 This and other violations of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) reinforce the country’s deep divisions and continued, widespread violence.2 After a devastating civil war (2013-2018), politicians, generals, and communities have lacked a unifying identity or incentive and have focused on shoring up their political power, undermining their rivals, and diversifying their economic holdings. As South Sudan’s oil fields dry up, wealth and sustenance are carved out wherever they can be found, often violently.3 The central government in Juba deprives national institutions of funding, neither state nor rebel forces are committed to integrating into a unified military, and state officials at all levels exploit their positions to fund expensive lifestyles and large patronage networks.4 Politicians have long plundered South Sudan’s main source of wealth, its state-owned oil company, Nilepet, to fuel their wars and wealth, and the country remains economically destitute.5 Across South Sudan, violence has become more geographically dispersed as armed groups have fractured. Between 1 January 2013 and the signing of R-ARCSS on 12 September 2018, there were conflict events in 718 distinct locations, compared to 1,720 between 13 September 2018 and 17 January 2025 (see maps below). Given these realities, the peace process could hardly address South Sudan’s myriad, local-level contests over borders, resources, and political positions.6
Topic:: Elections, Violence, Armed Conflict, and Peace Process
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

29. Expert Comment: The possibility of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea

Author:: Clionadh Raleigh
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: ACLED’s CEO, Prof. Clionadh Raleigh, said: “The lines of this potential conflict are too fragmented, and there is more smoke than fire. The prevailing idea seems to be a rising contest between Eritrea and Ethiopia in and over Tigray, which the Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF) withdrew from in February. The ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party is incredibly and dangerously fragmented, and the non-ruling fragment is making a lot of noise. Although the faction has never admitted it, much is being made about their possible opportunistic alliances with the (former and current enemy) Eritrean government on one hand and fragments of the (former and current enemy) Amhara nationalist militias — Fano — on the other hand. So who would fight whom over what is as confusing and unlikely in Tigray as it is outside of the region.”
Topic:: Armed Conflict, Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), and Ethiopia National Defense Force (ENDF)
Political Geography:: Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Africa

30. Starr Forum: Sudan Under Fire

Author:: Mai Hassan, Cameron Hudson, Kholood Khair, and Ahmed Kodouda
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Starr Forum: Sudan Under Fire: Monday, April 7th, 2025. As we enter year three of civil war, experts discussed the global crisis that has been too often ignored. Moderator: Mai Hassan is an associate professor of political science at MIT and the faculty director of the MIT-Africa Program at the Center for International Studies. Her work examines topics that span across authoritarian regimes, bureaucracy and public administration, and contentious politics. Speakers: Cameron Hudson is a senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Prior to multiple other academic posts, Cameron served in the US government, including as an intelligence analyst in the Africa Directorate at the Central Intelligence Agency. Kholood Khair is the founder and director of Confluence Advisory, a 'think and do tank' formerly based in Khartoum that works on three priority policy areas: peace and security, economy, and governance. She is currently at Yale University as a visiting fellow. Ahmed Kodouda is a policy, advocacy, and communication specialist. He has an extensive background in conflict and post conflict settings and experience working with and consulting for governmental and NGOs around the world, including in Sudan, Afghanistan, and Kenya.
Topic:: Security, Civil War, International Security, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

31. Toward Anti-racism Education in the African Context

Author:: George Sefa Dei and Niketa Afia Peters
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: What would African educational systems look like without colonial influence? Answering such questions may guide educators in the various communities of the African continent to imagine something re-centered around indigenous experiences. Anti-racism is an important part of that answer
Topic:: Education, Colonialism, Indigenous, and Racism
Political Geography:: Africa

32. Human Rights and Constitutionalism in Africa: Progress has been Achieved, but More is Needed

Author:: Ottilia Anna Maunganidze
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The institutional human rights and constitutionalist framework in Africa has been constantly evolving through the Organization of African Unity’s history and transformation into the African Union. In the face of contemporary challenges in the form of coups, unconstitutional changes in government, and more, African policymakers must focus on grounding their policy within the normative framework of the Union
Topic:: Human Rights, Norms, African Union, Constitutionalism, and Organization of African Unity
Political Geography:: Africa

33. Pursuing Unity: Pan-Africanism in Practice

Author:: Stephen Okhonmina
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: History has proven that a completely politically unified Africa may be impossible to achieve; instead, integration should be pursued with a more limited goal of facilitating faster economic, social, and political progress
Topic:: History, Regional Integration, Economic Development, and Pan-Africanism
Political Geography:: Africa

34. Enabling Evolution: The Role of Knowledge Production in the Development of African Unity

Author:: Samuel M. Makinda and Angela Leahy
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Knowledge is power; by harnessing knowledge production, the Organization of African Unity and its successor, the African Union, have set the continent on a new path.
Topic:: Regional Integration, African Union, Regional Politics, and Organization of African Unity
Political Geography:: Africa

35. On Senegali Nationhood and African Unity: In Conversation with Mark Deets

Author:: Omar Auf and Mark Deets
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: How is Senegal’s recently-elected young president faring in his efforts to navigate a complex local and regional ethno-political landscape? And what echoes from the past inform such efforts? Historian of West Africa answers these questions
Topic:: Ethnicity, Interview, African Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Senegal

36. The View from Africa Before and After the U.S. Elections—Q&A with Mark Deets

Author:: Omar Auf and Mark Deets
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Trump’s re-election brought massive changes to many aspects of the United States and the world. What led to Trump regaining the presidency? What will the reverberations look like in West Africa? Omar Auf sat with historian Mark Deets to find out
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, Interview, Donald Trump, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and United States of America

37. Rule of law in Mozambique

Author:: Margherita Bove and Patricia Justino
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines the state and evolution of the rule of law in Mozambique, focusing on key dimensions such as voice and political participation, judicial independence and accessibility, corruption, access to basic services, personal security, and property rights. Drawing on Afrobarometer surveys, voting data, and conflict records, the paper offer insights into the perceptions and experiences of Mozambican citizens. The findings indicate a deterioration in institutional trust over the past two decades, alongside declining voter turnout in general elections and increasing election-related and political violence. Despite reforms aimed at improving judicial autonomy and accessibility, the legal system remains affected by inefficiencies and regional disparities. Citizens are often subject to bribery when accessing essential public services, and perception of corruption in key institutions remains high. Concerns about fairness and integrity in the land registration process can also weaken confidence in land security and property rights protection. The paper highlights the continued challenges Mozambique faces in consolidating the rule of law, exacerbated by legacies of conflict, political instability, and uneven socioeconomic development.
Topic:: Elections, Rule of Law, Institutions, Survey, and Trust
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

38. How reliable are national accounts estimates of agricultural output?

Author:: Sam Jones and Marcelo Mucocana
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Measurement errors in macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP have been widely lamented, particularly in low-income contexts. This study investigates the reliability of one component of national accounts, agricultural sector output. Focusing first on the case of Mozambique, we use a series of 12 harmonized national agricultural micro-surveys to construct estimates of gross annual output in the sector. Compared to corresponding national accounts values for the period 2002–20, the micro-survey estimates are about 50% lower. A decomposition exercise indicates this gap is primarily driven by differences in base year levels, offset by higher rates of inflation observed in survey-based producer prices. Triangulating these estimates using household budget surveys, market price, and FAO production data, we find consistent support for the agricultural micro-survey estimates, suggesting real rates of total GDP growth may have been overestimated by 1 percentage point over the period. A cross-country comparison of national accounts and FAO production data indicates positive differences between estimates of agricultural output from the two sources are not unique to Mozambique, but with larger discrepancies among lower-income countries. Systematic investment in reliable and timely agricultural statistics is essential to track progress in the sector.
Topic:: Agriculture, GDP, Macroeconomics, and Survey
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

39. Social protection for Mozambique’s elderly: History, structure, and potential effectiveness

Author:: Sara Almeida, Hanna Berkel, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, and Telça Massingue
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria— programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. We estimate that in the best case with zero targeting errors, the PSSB-Elderly programme reaches two-thirds of its target group. However, significant regional disparities persist, including undercoverage in poorer regions. Additionally, we document substantial delays in payments since 2023, as well as various inaccuracies in the beneficiary registry. These findings underscore the importance of simple and robust designs for social protection in resource-constrained contexts. They also suggest that expanding programme coverage towards a quasi-universal subsidy in high-poverty locations merits serious consideration.
Topic:: Poverty, Public Policy, Pension, and Payment Systems
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

40. Fiscal policy and commodity price shocks in South Africa

Author:: Tumisang Loate and Vincent Dadam
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper investigates the effect of commodity price shocks in a commodity-exporting small open economy, and the role of fiscal policy in transmitting these shocks to the rest of the economy. Using South African data, we first estimate an empirical model using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. We then develop a New Keynesian small open economy with labour market hysteresis and commodity price shocks. We find that a commodity price shock typically has an expansionary effect as real GDP and employment increase, which translates into higher tax revenue. The results from our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model match the data. In addition, despite not modelling the tradable and non-tradable sectors explicitly, we find that there is an opportunity cost associated with taxing the commodity sector more than home production. This results in a higher trade deficit and government spending. Consequently, we also explore the role of countercyclical fiscal policy during a commodity boom.
Topic:: Economy, Fiscal Policy, Hysteresis, and Commodity Price Shock
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

41. Surviving the storm: How climate-related disasters reshape tax morale in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Enrico Nichelatti and Abrams Tagem
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Climate-related disasters have increased over recent decades, with severe human and economic consequences. While research has examined their macroeconomic effects and impact on households’ income and consumption patterns, little attention has been given to their impact on tax morale—taxpayers’ intrinsic motivation to comply with tax obligations. This study fills this gap by estimating the impact of climaterelated disasters on tax morale in 26 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data from 2011 to 2021. The analysis considers six climate-related shocks: droughts, earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, storms, and wildfires. We hypothesize that the impact of climate-related disasters on tax morale depends on the specific disasters considered, and that these heterogeneous effects work through two key mechanisms: economic inequality and trust in public institutions. First, they can exacerbate inequality by reducing government revenue, increasing economic hardship for vulnerable groups (through loss of livelihoods), and eliciting unequal policy responses from government. Climate-related disasters can also reduce inequality when associated with increased economic hardship for richer households (by destroying their productive assets. Second, tax morale declines when citizens perceive government responses as inadequate or unfair; conversely, it increases if citizens perceive the government to be responding adequately. Logistic regression results confirm this heterogeneity. Droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms reduce tax morale, while earthquakes and wildfires increase it. Incorporating regional heterogeneity shows that the negative effects of disasters on tax morale are more profound in rural areas. Mediation analysis confirms inequality and institutional trust as key transmission channels. These findings underscore the need for inclusive tax policies and effective post-disaster governance to sustain revenue mobilization in sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Tax Systems, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

42. Carbon taxation and firm behaviour in emerging economies: Evidence from South Africa

Author:: Johannes Gallé, Rodrigo Oliveira, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel, and Edson Severnini
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of how firms in emerging economies respond to carbon taxation, leveraging detailed administrative data from South Africa—a potential trailblazer for other developing countries with limited state capacity amid the growing global push for carbon pricing. We examine the dynamic impacts of the carbon tax on firm-level outcomes—such as profits, sales, capital, and labour inputs—across manufacturing and mining firms, which are key sectors in the context of the carbon tax. Contrary to concerns that carbon taxes may hinder economic growth or reduce employment, our findings show no evidence of negative average impacts on firm performance or jobs. However, this overall result masks significant heterogeneity in the tax’s effects across sectors, driven by the sector-specific design elements of the South African carbon tax. Firms expecting higher effective tax rates may have intensified their use of emission-intensive machinery and depreciated capital in anticipation of the tax. This behaviour appears to stem from firms resolving regulatory uncertainty or seeking to recover costs from stranded assets.
Topic:: Employment, Economic Growth, Carbon Tax, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

43. Twenty-five years of inflation-targeting in South Africa: Going from 6% to 3%?

Author:: Philippe Burger
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper proposes that the South African Reserve Bank should pursue a 3% inflation target, instead of the current 4.5% midpoint of a 3%-to-6% target range. Doing so may also result in lower inflation volatility, thereby reducing nominal exchange rate risk for investment and trade, and may thus support economic growth. Using a two-regime Markov-switching model, the analysis shows that since the global financial crisis, periods of higher inflation volatility are much shorter. Thus, inflation is relatively better anchored since the global financial crisis. But there are still shocks that coincide with periods of exchange rate volatility. Lastly, the analysis shows that the budget deficit/gross domestic product ratio, constraints on electricity supply, and administered prices contribute significantly to inflation, while the effect of real gross domestic product growth (as a demand variable) is limited. The analysis also argues that the sacrifice ratio, measuring the sacrifice of growth and employment that is required to reduce inflation, is of limited use once the potential role that other variables can play in the reduction of inflation and inflationary expectations is considered. The government has an especially significant role to play in supporting the South African Reserve Bank in lowering the inflation rate to an average of 3% by lowering the level and volatility of administered price inflation, reducing the budget deficit, and improving electricity supply.
Topic:: Budget, Investment, Inflation, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

44. The next decade of strategic competition: How the Pentagon can use special operations forces to better compete

Author:: Clementine G. Starling-Daniels and Theresa Luetkefend
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Strategic competition is likely to intensify over the next decade, increasing the demands on the United States to deter and defend against wide-ranging and simultaneous security challenges across multiple domains and regions worldwide. In that time frame, the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Joint Force should more effectively leverage the competencies of US Special Operations Forces (USSOF) to compete with US strategic adversaries. Three realities facing the DOD over the next decade lend themselves toward leveraging USSOF more in strategic competition. First, the growing need to counter globally active and increasingly cooperative aggressors, while the broader Joint Force remains focused on the Indo-Pacific and Europe, underscores the value of leveraging USSOF to manage competition in other regions. Second, the desire to avoid war and manage competition below the threshold of conflict aligns with USSOF’s expertise in the irregular aspects of competition. Third, unless defense spending and recruitment dramatically increase over the next decade, the Joint Force will likely have to manage more security challenges without a commensurate increase in force size and capabilities, which underscores the need for the DOD to maximize every tool at its disposal, including the use of USSOF to help manage strategic competition. The US government must harness all instruments of national power, alongside its network of allies and partners, to uphold international security, deter attacks, and counter efforts to undermine US security interests. Achieving this requires effectively integrating and leveraging the distinct roles of the DOD, interagency partners, the intelligence community (IC), and the Joint Force, including components like USSOF that have not been traditionally prioritized in strategic competition. For the past two decades, USSOF achieved critical operational successes during the Global War on Terror, primarily through counterterrorism and direct-action missions. However, peer and near-peer competition now demands a broader application of USSOF’s twelve core activities, with emphasis on seven: special reconnaissance, foreign internal defense, security force assistance, civil affairs operations, military information support operations, unconventional warfare, and direct action. Over the next decade, the DOD should emphasize USSOF’s return to its roots—the core competencies USSOF conducted and refined during the Cold War. USSOF’s unconventional warfare support of resistance groups in Europe; its support of covert intelligence operations in Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America; its evacuation missions of civilians in Africa; and its guerrilla and counterguerrilla operations helped combat Soviet influence operations worldwide. During that era, special operations became one of the US military’s key enablers to counter coercion below the threshold of armed conflict, and that is how USSOF should be applied in the next decade to help manage strategic competition. This report outlines five ways the Department of Defense should use Special Operations Forces over the next decade to support US efforts in strategic competition. USSOF should be leveraged to: Enhance the US government’s situational awareness of strategic competition dynamics globally. Entangle adversaries in competition to prevent escalation. Strengthen allied and partner resilience to support the US strategy of deterrence by denial. Support integration across domains for greater effect at the tactical edge Contribute to US information and decision advantage by leveraging USSOF’s role as a technological pathfinder. This report seeks to clarify USSOF’s role in strategic competition over the next decade, address gaps in understanding within the DOD and the broader national security community about USSOF’s competencies, and guide future resource and force development decisions. By prioritizing the above five functions, USSOF can bolster the US competitive edge and support the DOD’s management of challenges across diverse theaters and domains.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, National Security, Terrorism, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Middle East, Latin America, and United States of America

45. Trade in the Great Sea: The Future of EU-Southern Neighbourhood Trade Relations

Author:: Jan A. Micallef
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief looks into the future of EU-Southern Mediterranean trade relations. It evaluates the current trade and contractual instruments governing these relations and asks if they are sufficient or if more is needed to exploit trade opportunities and manage trade challenges in the region. The policy brief shows why and how the current trade instruments are no longer sufficient. There are two main reasons for this: first, they do not really tackle areas such as services, investment and non-tariff measures (NTMs), all of which are important to unlock economic value for both sides in today’s economy; and second, new economic and political developments reinforce the need for better agreements. As trade becomes more political and intertwined with other issues such as energy, critical minerals, the environment and industrial policy, it is necessary to improve the agreements and instruments that govern trade. The policy brief lists some of the upgrades in EU-Southern Mediterranean trade agreements that are necessary. However, it also analyses what challenges there are to pursue these upgrades and what can be done to overcome the problems. The policy brief concludes that working towards these aims will be challenging but not impossible if there is the necessary political will on both sides. Both sides should realise that the price of not doing anything might be higher than the effort that is required to bring their trade instruments up to the standards needed.
Topic:: International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

46. CTC Sentinel: May 2025 Issue

Author:: Daisy Muibu, Yayedior Mbengue, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, and Briar Bundy
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In the May 2025 feature article, Daisy Muibu and Yayedior Mbengue examine the evolving counterterrorism challenge in Somalia. They write that “nearly three years after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the security landscape remains precarious. Al-Shabaab has resurged, coordination between federal and Puntland forces is limited despite Islamic State-Somalia’s growing global remit, and the future of the African Union mission is uncertain. These trends are driven by political discord, a fragmented national landscape, donor fatigue, operational challenges, and al-Shabaab’s resilience.” Our interview is with Christine Abizaid, the former director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center. She emphasizes that: “The CT business is still a needles-in-the-haystack business; it’s still one piece of information that can open up a whole new threat network. You have to be digging into and accessing multiple sources of information, collaborating with multiple partners who see things in different ways.” Aymenn Al-Tamimi charts the rise, fall, and dissolution of al-Qa`ida’s loyalist group in Syria Hurras al-Din. He writes that: “The primary ongoing concern from a counterterrorism perspective is that regardless of Hurras al-Din’s own weakness, individuals who were members of the group, particularly leading figures, may try to coordinate with other members of al-Qa`ida or other jihadis outside Syria for the purpose of organizing terrorist attacks abroad.” Saif Tahir and Amira Jadoon examine the geographical origins, mobility patterns, and demographic characteristics of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants through an analysis of 615 profiles from the organization’s own martyrdom commemorative publications spanning 2006-2025. Julika Enslin outlines the evolution of the Islamist terror threat landscape in Germany since 2020 by taking an in-depth look at all nine executed Islamist terrorist attacks and the 20 publicly reported thwarted attack plots during that time. A personal note: Over the last 10 years, it has been the privilege of a lifetime to serve as the Editor-in-Chief of CTC Sentinel to showcase the best and brightest scholars and practitioners in our field. It’s time for me to pass the baton. The publication will be in great hands with my brilliant colleagues Kristina Hummel and Don Rassler. I look forward to continuing my close association with the Combating Terrorism Center and CTC Sentinel. The faculty and staff at the center, past and present, are the very best of America. I greatly appreciate the trust that directors Colonel Sean Morrow, Brian Dodwell, and Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Bryan Price placed in me. Above all, I would like to express my thanks to our extraordinary contributors. They have greatly helped the counterterrorism enterprise. Who thinks wins.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Al-Shabaab, African Union, Salafi-Jihadism, and Hurras al-Din
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Syria, North America, Somalia, and United States of America

47. Water-Driven Hunger: How the Climate Crisis Fuels Africa’s Food Emergency

Author:: Giuseppe Selvaggi and Elise Nalbandian
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This paper calls for an integrated water and food security management in eight Eastern and Southern African countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. These countries, identified as Hunger Hotspots for 2025 and among the 30 most water insecure globally, are also experiencing the severe impacts of climate variability. The paper strongly recommends that multilateral bodies, governments, donors, and the private sector implement sustainable adaptation and mitigation measures—such as strengthening national hydro-meteorological forecasting systems, increasing investment in anticipatory action, ensuring access to climate finance etc. to tackle the root causes of these crises. Furthermore, it also provides insights into effective water management practices that can help national governments and policymakers adopt comprehensive policies, ultimately improving governance to tackle the triple crises of water, food and climate.
Topic:: Climate Change, Water, Hunger, and Water Insecurity
Political Geography:: Africa

48. From Pledges to Progress: Tracking climate finance flows and accountability in Nigeria and Uganda

Author:: Tallulah Cherry-Virdee
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Oxfam’s Climate Finance Shadow reports have shown that high-income countries have failed to deliver on their commitment to mobilize climate finance for low- and middle-income countries. In 2024, two country reports, on Uganda and Nigeria, were published that analyzed how the insufficient international climate finance that is reaching their governments is being spent at national and subnational level. The two reports also lay out ways for how civil society can track these flows, ensure meaningful community participation, and hold their governments accountable. This paper analyses the findings and commonalities from the reports on Uganda and Nigeria, and includes recommendations for climate finance providers, national and subnational governments, and civil society on how climate finance can be spent fair, transparent, accountable and in an inclusive manner.
Topic:: Budget, Climate Finance, Citizenship, Accountability, and Participation
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and Nigeria

49. No Women, No Peace – A Snapshot of Oxfam’s Engagement with the Women, Peace and Security Agenda: Lessons and Opportunities

Author:: Marie Sophie Petersson, Lydia Ayikoru, Souhadou Diasso, Fatma Jaffer, and Moath Jamal
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This briefing paper summarizes the important lessons learned since 2018 by Oxfam Denmark and the wider Oxfam confederation while promoting the women, peace and security (WPS) agenda and supporting WPS programming in Burkina Faso, Colombia, Ghana, Kenya, Lebanon, Mali, Niger, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, South Sudan, Syria, Uganda, Ukraine and Yemen, including under the Danish International Development Agency (Danida) strategic partnerships. It contains practical and policy-level recommendations for international actors working on the WPS agenda in various crisis and conflict contexts globally. The briefing paper shows that supporting and amplifying locally led feminist action by diverse women-led, women’s and LGBTQIA+ rights organizations, networks and groups is a central foundation for peace and justice.
Topic:: Leadership, Crisis Management, Gender, Protection, Localization, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Global Focus

50. (Digital) cash transfers, privacy and women’s empowerment: Evidence from Uganda

Author:: Greco Giulia, Gulesci Selim, Prabhakar Pallavi, and Sulaiman Munshi
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: This study reports findings from a randomized controlled trial in Uganda that provided unconditional cash transfers to married women, varying the payment method (cash or mobile money) and whether spouses were informed. Results show that mobile money transfers significantly enhance women’s economic independence and decision-making power, as reflected in increased personal labor income and greater say in household decisions. In contrast, cash transfers are more effective in reducing intimate partner violence (IPV), especially when both spouses are informed about the transfer. These findings reveal a critical trade-off: while digital payments promote women’s financial control, they may be less effective in addressing IPV. The study underscores the importance of considering both economic empowerment and safety outcomes when designing transfer programs for women.
Topic:: Economics, Women, Privacy, Empowerment, and Cash Transfers
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

51. Adapting and Validating WEE Indicators in an Experimental Study of Savings

Author:: Anahit Tevosyan, Scott Graham, and Joeri Smiths
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: Traditional indicators of Women’s Economic Empowerment (WEE) are often too broad to effectively measure specific behavioral outcomes like women’s savings behavior (WSB). This study addresses that gap by identifying contextually relevant WEE indicators that closely align with savings behavior, using data from 1,498 FINCA Uganda women savers. It employs a two-step validation approach. First, qualitative methods such as focus groups and cognitive interviews establish a set of WEE indicators tailored to the local context. Then, machine learning models test how well these indicators predict actual savings behavior. The study links women’s self-perceived empowerment with real financial actions—setting savings goals, making deposits, and using funds purposefully. Further validation comes from a subsample exposed to a low-cost coaching intervention, which strengthens the WEE-WSB relationship and reveals which empowerment factors make coaching more or less effective. Notably, the research highlights often-overlooked domains such as external social influence and the complexity of decision-making burdens. This work offers a more targeted, behavior-linked approach to measuring WEE, with potential to improve the design and evaluation of development programs across varied contexts.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Women, Empowerment, and Savings
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

52. The United Nations–African Union Partnership and the Protection of Civilians

Author:: Andrew E. Yaw Tchie and Lauren McGowan
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: The landscape of peace operations in Africa has transformed over the past decade, including a marked increase in African-led peace support operations (PSOs). Since the early 2000s, the African Union (AU) and UN have evolved distinct, albeit parallel, conceptual and operational approaches to the protection of civilians (POC). While the UN views POC in peacekeeping as a whole-of-mission objective, with military, police, and civilian components prioritizing POC and proactively protecting civilians, the AU views itself as contributing to the protection of civilians primarily by neutralizing armed groups and establishing a protective environment. These differences raise important questions about how POC will be upheld in the context of the UN-AU partnership. This report examines the operational differences between UN and AU approaches to POC, assessing their respective advantages and limitations. It highlights how African-led PSOs tend to be more able and willing to use force to respond to outbreaks of violence and to contain aggressors but have less sustainable and flexible financing than UN peacekeeping operations. Meanwhile, UN peacekeeping missions with POC mandates have more robust civilian and police components but may lack rapid response capabilities. To strengthen their partnership on POC, the two organizations should leverage their comparative advantages, acknowledge their respective limitations, and work toward an approach to POC that is tailored to each context. Based on the findings in this report, the following recommendations are made: Understandings of POC: The UN Department of Peace Operations (DPO) and AU Peace Support Operations Division (PSOD) should continue to facilitate understanding of their comparative advantages and challenges on POC. POC should be a central focus of efforts to implement the 2017 Joint Framework for Enhanced Partnership in Peace and Security. UN DPO and AU PSOD should share lessons learned and strengthen each other’s capacity. The AU compliance team should continue to support regional economic communities in adhering to AU POC policies. Structures on POC: The UN and AU should establish a joint lessons-learned mechanism within the UN Office to the AU to systematically assess joint UN-AU missions and African-led operations. UN DPO and AU PSOD should develop and implement a joint protection strategy when engaged in partnered operations. UN DPO and AU PSOD should conduct a thorough joint POC assessment prior to any partnered deployments. The AU Peace and Security Council and UN Security Council should engage in regular consultations on peace support operations, including on mandates.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Civilians, African Union, Protection, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:: Africa

53. Somali Federal and State Interior Ministries: How to Enable Popular Participation in Transitional Justice

Author:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: After years of conflict and instability, Somalia is entering a period where transitional justice is possible. Three decades of experience in Africa shows that transitional justice processes are more likely to be effective if they are rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. While the Somali government has not yet launched a truth commission, prosecutions, reparations or other formal mechanisms usually associated with dealing with the past, different types of measures have emerged in the country that are precursors to – or even themselves forms of – transitional justice. Drawing lessons from formal, state-led measures like the National Reconciliation Framework and non-formal, civil society-led measures like the Peace and Development Forum, this policy brief provides actionable guidance for the Ministry of Interior, Federal Affairs and Reconciliation and the Interior Ministries of federal member states on how to enable popular participation for a locally relevant and sustainable national transitional justice process.
Topic:: Government, Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

54. Enabling Popular Participation in Transitional Justice in Somalia

Author:: Farhia Mohamud
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Given the country's increasing stability, transitional justice has become an option for addressing the violence and gross human rights violations that have marked Somalia's history from the colonial period to the present. Experiences in other African countries over the past three decades show that transitional justice processes are more likely to be effective if they are rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. This study explores emerging measures linked to transitional justice in Somalia, which are rooted in local practices and build on local resources, to provide recommendations to state authorities, civil society, and multilateral actors, including the African Union, for enabling popular participation and thereby a more contextual, inclusive, and effective transitional justice process in Somalia. Based on extensive fieldwork with 114 participants in Mogadishu, Dhuusamreeb, and Gaalkacyo, the study examines formal and non-formal measures already occurring in Somalia to identify ways in which future transitional justice processes could enable people's agency over the goals, forms, and outcomes of measures dealing with the past.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Political stability, Transitional Justice, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

55. The African Union and Member States: How to Mainstream Participation in Transitional Justice

Author:: Mary Izobo
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: The 2019 African Union Transitional Justice Policy (AUTJP) advances a unique transitional justice approach based on the principles of national and local ownership, African shared values, inclusiveness, equity and non-discrimination. These principles highlight the importance of popular participation and provide a framework for mainstreaming participation in a meaningful way. This policy brief outlines how the AUTJP provides for participation, explains the value of participation, and identifies key challenges, before providing actionable recommendations for the African Union and its member states on partnering with a wide range of stakeholders to enhance popular participation. By doing so, the AU and member states can ensure that transitional justice is a transformative tool for sustainable peace, reconciliation and good governance at the regional and national levels in Africa.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, African Union, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa

56. The Gambian Government and Political Participation in Post-TRRC Transitional Justice

Author:: Jasmina Brankovic, Simon Robins, Fatou Baldeh, and Lena Houma
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: The government of Gambia has committed to implementing the recommendations of the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Commission (TRRC) through further transitional justice measures. Three decades of experience in Africa show that a transitional justice process as a whole is more likely to be effective if it is rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. This policy brief is written for the Steering Committee leading the implementation process and for the Ministry of Justice and other government ministries and agencies supporting implementation efforts. The brief provides actionable guidance on how to ensure post-TRRC transitional justice measures – including reparations, justice and accountability, and institutional reforms – are inclusive and participatory. In line with the African Union Transitional Justice Policy, the brief emphasizes the value of both formal, state-run measures and non-formal, civil society-led measures, especially in combination. It is based on lessons from the TRRC's efforts to promote participation, as well as those of non-formal measures like the Listening Circles created by Women in Liberation and Leadership.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Gambia

57. Transitional Justice in the Gambia: Enabling Popular Participation

Author:: Fatou Baldeh and Lena Houma
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This research report examines the level of popular participation in The Gambia's transitional justice process to date and provides recommendations for ensuring more meaningful participation going forward. It begins with an overview of both formal and non-formal measures in The Gambia, before analyzing in detail the dynamics of participation in the formal measure of the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Commission (TRRC) and in non-formal measures, particularly Listening Circles established by Women in Liberation and Leadership. The study finds that while the TRRC sought to ensure broad-based participation and to gather evidence from a range of victims/survivors and perpetrators, it fell short in areas like sexual and gender-based violence. The sensitive nature of such crimes in the context of existing socio-cultural norms and practices hindered victims/survivors from approaching the commission. Additionally, the TRRC struggled to reach communities where Jammeh has strong support, with the commission being construed as part of a political agenda. Non-formal measures, run by civil society, filled some of the TRRC's gaps and contributed to wider participation of citizens in the process. To promote more meaningful participation in and across both formal and non-formal measures, we provide actionable recommendations for state actors, particularly state representatives on the Steering Committee leading the TRRC recommendations implementation process and the Ministry of Justice and other government ministries and agencies supporting implementation efforts. We also provide recommendations for multilateral actors supporting transitional justice in The Gambia, including international and regional organizations such as the African Union and the United Nations, state donor bodies, private foundations, and international nongovernmental organizations.
Topic:: Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Gambia

58. Mainstreaming Popular Participation in Transitional Justice: Lessons from Multilateral, State and Civil Society Actors in the Gambia and Somalia

Author:: Jasmina Brankovic and Simon Robins
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: Statements on the need for popular participation are increasingly common in international and national transitional justice policy and literature, yet little guidance is available on how to put participation into practice. Based on empirical research in The Gambia and Somalia and with multilateral actors supporting transitional justice in Africa, this research report examines what participation looks like and provides actionable recommendations for enabling participation in a more meaningful way. The findings are relevant for transitional justice policy makers, practitioners and scholars on the continent and beyond. The study builds on the African Union Transitional Justice Policy's provisions for community participation and acknowledgement of both formal, state-run measures and non-formal, civil society-led measures as transitional justice. The findings show that meaningful participation requires four main commitments on the part of multilateral, state and civil society actors: 1) mainstreaming, 2) localisation, 3) decentralisation, and 4) recognition of non-formal measures. Participatory transitional justice results in more inclusive, contextualised and effective processes, with broad-based buy-in for sustainable outcomes.
Topic:: Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Multilateralism, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, and Gambia

59. Breaking the Silence: The Fight Against Gender-Based Violence in Tanzania

Author:: Wilifrida S. John
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the ongoing issue of gender-based violence (GBV) in Tanzania, despite the country's ratification of comprehensive international, regional, and national legal frameworks. It explores how harmful cultural practices such as unyago, vigodoro, and chagulaga; alongside entrenched patriarchal norms and contradictions between statutory and customary laws, continue to undermine protections for women and girls. The brief argues that legal commitments alone are insufficient without effective enforcement, structural reform, public education, and stronger institutional accountability. It offers evidence-based recommendations to better align the legal system with cultural change, survivor-centred support services, and coordinated, cross-sector responses. By situating Tanzania's case within the wider Sub-Saharan African context, it illustrates how legal pluralism, and socio-cultural dynamics contribute to the persistence of GBV across the region.
Topic:: Education, Culture, Reform, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Girls
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

60. Effective community mobilization: evidence from Mali

Author:: Maria Laura Alzúa, Juan Camilo Cardenas, and Habiba Djebbari
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:: Experts argue that the adoption of healthy sanitation practices, such as hand washing and latrine use, requires focusing on the entire community rather than individual behaviors. According to this view, one limiting factor in ending open defecation lies in the capacity of the community to collectively act toward this goal. Each member of a community bears the private cost of contributing by washing hands and using latrines, but the benefits through better health outcomes depend on whether other community members also opt out of open defecation. We rely on a community-based intervention carried out in Mali as an illustrative example (Community-Led Total Sanitation or CLTS). Using a series of experiments conducted in 121 villages and designed to measure the willingness of community members to contribute to a local public good, we investigate the process of participation in a collective action problem setting. Our focus is on two types of activities: (1) gathering of community members to encourage public discussion of the collective action problem, and (2) facilitation by a community champion of the adoption of individual actions to attain the socially preferred outcome. In games, communication helps raise public good provision, and both open discussion and facilitated ones have the same impact. When a community member facilitates a discussion after an open discussion session, public good contributions increase, but there are no gains from opening up the discussion after a facilitated session. Community members who choose to contribute in the no-communication treatment are not better facilitators than those who choose not to contribute
Topic:: Development, Sanitation, Behavior, Public Goods, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

61. Climate Change Budget Compliance Assessment Report

Author:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:: This report presents a compliance assessment of Uganda’s national budget for Financial Year (FY) 2024/25, evaluating the budget’s alignment with climate change priorities that are outlined in the Third National Development Plan (NDP III). The assessment focuses on thirteen (13) priority programmes, selected for their climate change vulnerability, strategic importance, and potential to contribute to climate resilience and low-carbon development. With the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) already approved, this analysis provides insights into the country’s progress with climate-change-sensitive development programming and action, while highlighting gaps in climate finance integration. This effort should inform more robust and inclusive planning for the future. Climate change remains one of the most pressing and persistent global development challenges. It increasingly impacts people’s livelihoods, and its effects are especially worse in vulnerable and least-prepared countries like Uganda. Climate change effects are far-reaching, contributing to environmental degradation, reduced agricultural productivity, health challenges, and disruption of livelihoods. These impacts not only threaten ecosystems and human well-being but also hinder the achievement of sustainable development and social equity, thereby deepening social exclusion. As the climate crisis intensifies, urgent and coordinated global, regional, and national action becomes critical. Effective and timely mitigation and adaptation responses are necessary to minimize harm and contribute meaningfully to the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). On the other hand, delayed or no action on climate change is expected to result in more severe, costly, and irreversible consequences for both natural and human systems. Uganda’s long-term development frameworks, including the Vision 2040, the Third National Development Plan (NDPIII), and various sectoral policies and plans, recognize climate change as a major threat to socio-economic transformation and sustainable development. These frameworks emphasize the need for substantial investments in climateresilient development. The success of Uganda’s ambitions for inclusive growth largely hinges on the effective integration of climate action across all programmes of the country’s development plans, and adequate allocation of resources to finance climate interventions. TThe NDP III (2020/21–2024/25), now in its final implementation year, integrates climate change priorities across all its twenty (20) programmes. It specifies strategic interventions and performance targets, which are reflectedinthePlan’sResultsFrameworkandProgrammeImplementation Action Plans (PIAPs). This was intended to guide the national budgeting process, ensuring budget alignment with climate-resilient development goals. The goal of this assessment is to ascertain the extent to which the national budget of FY 2024/2025 and Budget Framework Paper (BFP) of 2025/2026 comply with planned climate change interventions under NDP III and NDP IV. The assessment involved selection of Programmes that are either most vulnerable to climate change, or have highest potential to contribute to climate change via their high greenhouse gas emission intensity. This selection was informed by Uganda’s National Climate Change priority areas captured in the country’s revised/updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 2022) and the Uganda Green Growth Development Strategy (UGGDS) 2017-2030. This programme selection was followed by a review and analysis of national planning and budgeting documents, focusing on: (i) adaptation and resilience building; and (ii) mitigation or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
Topic:: Climate Change, Budget, Compliance, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

62. Neoliberalism’s True Heirs: What Late-Apartheid South Africa Can Teach Us About the Contemporary Far Right

Author:: Elizabeth Soer
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: How can we make sense of the resurgence of the far right across the world? From the re-election of Donald Trump to the flourishing of Hindu nationalism under Narendra Modi, right-wing politicians have undoubtedly grown in prominence over the last decade. There is a burgeoning literature on this topic as scholars attempt to understand whether it is a backlash against neoliberalism, a reactionary form of neoliberalism, or simply a cultural phenomenon produced by increased global connectivity. This paper contributes to the vibrant discussion by examining an ideal yet overlooked case of ethno-nationalist neoliberalism – apartheid South Africa in the 1980s. This case reveals neoliberalism’s relationship to colonialism and its contribution to the perpetuation of white rule. South Africa has served as a test case for neoliberal ideas about race and economics and can thus contribute broader insights on the topic. The paper argues that the contemporary far right is not a backlash against neoliberalism, but a robust continuation of it. It draws on a vast range of archival sources from the late-apartheid period as well as the writings of prominent neoliberal thinkers to support this argument.
Topic:: Apartheid, Neoliberalism, Far Right, and Ethnonationalism
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

63. Maintaining Regional Stability Amid Complex Regime Transitions in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities for COMESA Member States

Author:: Mumo Nzau
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: With a market reach of approximately 600 million people and straddling 21 countries, the COMESA bloc occupies a vast chunk of the continent. Contemporary literature on the region generally points to huge macroeconomic potential in as far as the holistic developmental and wealth creation projections are concerned. Nonetheless, a sizeable number of COMESA countries have, from time to time, experienced phases of complex regime transition, a state of affairs that comes with an aura of regional instability, thereby undermining the prosperity prospects of a trading bloc that boasts a combined GDP of US$ 768 billion. Over the past decade, a sizeable number of these countries have been faced with one form or another of political turmoil and assorted civil strife, especially within the context of regime transitions and/or change of power from one government to the next. Against this background, through the lenses of neofunctionalism and liberal institutionalist theories, this paper examines the question of how best to ensure and/or maintain regional stability in the midst of such complex regime transitions, with the view of teasing out the challenges and opportunities before offering sustainable policy recommendations for COMESA countries.
Topic:: COMESA, Regional Stability, Neofunctionalism, Liberal Institutionalism, and Complex Regime Transitions
Political Geography:: Africa

64. Terminating Insurgency in Mozambique: Reflections on the SADC Mission In Mozambique

Author:: Oita Etyang, Lweendo Kambela, and Stephen Muleya
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The continued threat of insurgency in Mozambique has triggered academic and policy interest in the recent past. Indeed, the ramifications caused by acts of insurgency globally and in Africa remain endemic. This calls for the need to establish sustainable and context-specific interventions at regional and national levels. The Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regions have not been spared from the lethality of insurgency, with Mozambique morphing into the epicentre of interest. Insurgency has caused untold suffering to communities in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, prompting the deployment of a SADC mission. As a regional peace operation, the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) was deployed on 15 July 2021 following approval by the Extraordinary SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government held in Maputo, Mozambique on 23 June 2021. The main objective of SAMIM was to support the Republic of Mozambique to combat armed groups and acts of insurgency, particularly in the Cabo Delgado province. This article seeks to understand the impact of the SAMIM intervention. It mainly interrogates SAMIM’s mandate, structure, success, challenges and lessons learned using both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies and various open data sources, including programmatic documents.
Topic:: Security, Insurgency, Peacekeeping, COMESA, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
Political Geography:: Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado

65. The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend: Ethiopia–Eritrea Relations and the 2020 Conflict in the Tigray Region in Ethiopia

Author:: Berita Mutinda Musau
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Abiy Ahmed’s assumption of power in Ethiopia in April 2018 brought positive changes that were lauded internationally but unwelcomed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) –one of the coalition parties in the Ethiopian government. In November 2020, the Ethiopian Federal Government commenced a massive ‘law enforcement operation’ in the Tigray region against the TPLF. Eritrea’s involvement in the conflict alongside the Ethiopian government internationalised it. This article analyses Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray conflict. Since their 1998 border war over the Badme region, Eritrea and Ethiopia have had frosty relations. To date, they are still mending these relationships despite their 2018 rapprochement. This article argues that the alliance of the Ethiopian government with Eritrea against the TPLF could be a case of ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ and thus examines Ethiopia–Eritrea relations and their strategic considerations that necessitated this alliance. Adopting the realist theory of international relations, the study reviews literature and historically analyses the relations between the two countries. The study’s main objective is to understand their strategic considerations for conflict and cooperation at different times in history and particularly in the Tigray conflict. The study’s findings reveal that amid the Ethiopia‒Eritrea relations are Eritrean‒Tigrayan relations, anchored in issues of identity construction and deconstruction, statehood and sovereignty, animosity, mistrust and apprehension. The study recommends that the relations between Abiy Ahmed’s government, Eritrea and the TPLF should be keenly monitored and managed for the stability of the two countries and the Horn of Africa region.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Armed Conflict, and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea

66. The East African Community Regional Force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Successes, Challenges and Prospects

Author:: Kizito Sabala and Vyalirendi Jacques Muhindo
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Against the backdrop of more than 20 years of existence of the United Nations Organization Mission in Congo/Mission de l’Organization des Nations Unies au Congo (MONUSCO), the East African Community (EAC) deployed a military force in the eastern part of the country in November 2022. The purpose of the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) was to contribute towards the resolution of the conflict that has ravaged the region for decades, and specifically to neutralise the M23 resurgence and the numerous informal armed groups. The regional economic community that brings together eight countries, namely, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda was doing this for the first time since its establishment in 1999. Slightly over a year since its deployment, and eventual withdrawal in December 2023, there are several questions that arise which are the subject of this article: (i) Why did the EAC deploy EACRF when there is MONUSCO? (ii) to what extent had EACRF achieved its objective? (iii) was the mandate of the regional force appropriate for the situation in eastern DRC and how did it compare to that of MONUSCO? (iv) what are the challenges and prospects for peace, security and political stability in the DRC? While the article relies predominantly on secondary data, it taps into limited primary sources obtained by one of the authors during field humanitarian assignments in different parts in DRC.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Humanitarian Intervention, Military Intervention, and M23
Political Geography:: Africa, East Africa, and Democratic Republic of Congo

67. The Farmer–Fulani Herdsmen Clashes and the Socio-Economic Development of North-Western Nigeria: A Case Study of Southern Kaduna

Author:: David Villah Dan-Azumi
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The clashes between Fulani herdsmen and farmers in Nigeria have become endemic and persistent for decades. Climate change, cattle rustling, expansion of cultivated lands and population growth are among the major drivers of these clashes. However, the trends in the clashes in recent years suggest strong political, religious, ethnic and economic undertones. The recurrent and escalating nature of the violence in recent times is worrisome and despite the existing security efforts at the federal and state levels, the conflict remains unabated. This research examines the farmer–Fulani herdsmen clashes and their impact on the socio-economic development of southern Kaduna state. To explain the multifaceted nature of the clashes and how they affect the livelihoods of the affected communities, the study employs a theory of frustration and conflict, a quantitative research method, a survey research design and inferential statistics to analyse data. Findings from the research show an intricate interplay of socio-political, economic and ethno-religious factors in the violent clashes, a lack of feasible and realistic grazing policies and a lack of strong political will to address the conflict. Based on the research findings, the study recommends the establishment of cattle ranches in accordance with the existing laws on land ownership and robust security measures and structures to anticipate and forestall the recurrent clashes.
Topic:: Conflict, Justice, Economic Development, Reconciliation, and Fulani Herdsmen
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

68. Distributive Justice and Land-Related Conflict in Panda Development Area of Nasarawa State, Nigeria

Author:: Joshua O. Zachariah and Elias Chukwuemeka Ngwu
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The question of land has increasingly become a major source of conflicts in many parts of Africa. In Nigeria, claims of rights over landholdings and justice administration of land disputes, though of great concern, have received inadequate attention in the literature. In this context, this paper examines Nozickian distributive justice vis-à-vis land-related conflicts in the Panda Development Area (PDA), Nasarawa state, Nigeria. It focuses on perennial delays-cum-unfavourable rectification of unjust landholdings as drivers of conflict in the area. The study employs the survey method of data collection using key-informant interviews. It adopts a qualitative descriptive method to analyse the data. The paper found that over 80% of the population in the study area rely on agriculture, and that there are numerous contestations over land use and ownership. Unfortunately, still, adjudication of these cases lingers unnecessarily, resulting in distrust, antagonisms and violent confrontations. The study recommends fundamental reform of Nigeria’s justice system as it relates to land matters to ensure more equitable distribution of land. Such reform should include the introduction of special courts as well as the mainstreaming of traditional institutions, local and ad-hoc arbitrators into the dispute resolution mechanisms of land-related cases.
Topic:: Development, Justice, Peacebuilding, and Land Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

69. The Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia and its Relevance for Peacebuilding

Author:: Yohannes Haile Getahun
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article deals with the peacebuilding impact of the Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia (TJPE) through an explanatory case study approach that contextualises the discourse of transitional justice and peace within the specific context of Ethiopia. Drawing on existing literature on the peace implications of transitional justice systems, the study develops a framework that emphasises the need for a balanced approach that integrates retributive and restorative justice mechanisms. Foregrounding the TJPE, the article identifies both prospects and limitations. The processes of truth-seeking and accountability for past, recent and present human rights abuses, fighting the culture of impunity and building social trust are the primary prospects. However, certain factors could undermine the peacebuilding contributions of the transitional justice programme. These factors include political capture, the politics of striking mutual innocence pacts, predicaments of political legitimacy, harmonising reconciliation and justice and ongoing conflicts. Generally, beyond the textual and institutional design, the political system and its dynamics have much bearing on the effectiveness of the TJPE in bringing about durable peace.
Topic:: Transitional Justice, Impunity, Reconciliation, Peacebuilding, and Political Transition
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

70. The Domestic Impact of the ICERD on TRC-Related Prosecutions in South Africa: A Story of Lost Opportunities for Post-Apartheid Justice

Author:: Ntokozo Sibanyoni
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD/the Convention) is a response to apartheid in pre-democratic South Africa. Article 6 obliges states to provide reparations to victims of discrimination. However, 31 years into its democracy, South Africa is haunted by a poor record of prosecuting apartheid. While popular discussions focus on the failure of the government to prosecute, this article focuses on the extent of the Convention’s domestic impact on the prosecutions. This contribution uses a working definition of domestic impact, which emphasises the efforts of all stakeholders in the state’s reporting process. The contribution relies on data collected through desktop research and semi-structured interviews with people working on race-related issues, to assess the extent to which article 6 of the Convention has been realized. Arguing that the Convention has made a delayed and limited impact on prosecutions, the article discusses factors that have hindered impact and provides recommendations towards the realisation of article 6 of the Convention.
Topic:: Apartheid, Transitional Justice, Justice, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

71. Conflict Resolution Mechanisms for Strengthening Land Tenure Security: A Case of Mvomero District, Tanzania

Author:: Samwel Alananga and Christoncia Joyness
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: In Tanzania, conflicts over land resources between pastoralists and farmers have been pervasive, especially in Mvomero District despite numerous efforts by the government to resolve them. This study is based on secondary data concerning the persistence of conflict, complemented by thematic analysis of six key informant interviews from three villages in Mvomero District: Kambala, Bungoma and Mkindo. The goal is to understand the evolving nature of land conflicts, the effectiveness of conflict-resolution mechanisms and the impacts on both farmers and pastoralists. The findings reveal that efforts to address land conflicts are hindered by several factors: inadequate resources, low levels of knowledge and awareness about land matters, the absence of village land councils, a lack of Village Land Use Plans (VLUPs), especially in pastoralist-dominated villages and insufficient and uncoordinated information. Drawing on theories of principled negotiation and conflict resolution, this paper argues that there is no single resolution strategy suitable for all conflicts, as each setting is unique even within the same village. Nonetheless, coercive methods remain common, with paramilitary and government officials often employed instead of negotiated solutions. Since this approach offers only short-term relief, land conflicts tend to recur repeatedly. In light of these findings, the paper recommends that stakeholders should follow up initial coercive interventions with negotiated approaches to ensure long-term stability. To this end, the effective implementation of the Village Land Act (1999) and the Land Disputes Courts Act (2019) requires the development of operational guidelines and tools that support negotiated solutions in line with the principles of principled negotiation theory.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Land Conflict, Land Tenure Security, and Farmer-Pastoralist Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

72. Analysing the Root Causes of Armed Conflicts in Northern Ethiopia

Author:: Alemu Mullaw
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Armed conflicts that need constructive measurement are rampant in various corners of the world. Currently, there are wars occurring in Europe, Asia, and Africa. Armed conflict can be understood as a battle between two parties, at least one of which is a state government, over a government or territory, using armed forces.1 The notion of conflict is evolving along with understandings of states, borders, relationships, actors, issues, and globalisation. Mary Kaldor described this expanded understanding as ‘New Wars,’ which applies to the 2020 Ethiopian armed conflict.2 Ethiopia maintained its independence during the colonial period and emerged with its present borders and ethnic make-up at the end of the 19th century due to the territorial expansion undertaken by Emperor Menelik II (1889-1913). However, the history of the country is riddled with intra- and inter-state conflicts and it has experienced acute political and economic contradictions.3 The country has been a federal republic since 1994, with the official name of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, subdivided into nine ethnically based regional states (Killil), each with a large degree of autonomy, and two autonomous cities with regional state status, namely Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa.4
Topic:: Security, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

73. The Role of the African Union Peace and Security Council in Promoting the Responsible use of Artificial Intelligence for Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Africa

Author:: Victor Obinna Chukwuma
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Petra Molnar wrote that the development of technology ‘reinforces power asymmetries between countries’ and influences ‘our thinking around which countries can push for innovation, while other spaces like conflict zones and refugee camps become sites of experimentation.’1 Africa has been dealing with a perennial refugee crisis. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), ‘Around 30 million internally displaced persons, refugees and asylum-seekers live in Africa, representing almost one-third of the world’s refugee population.’2 As artificial intelligence (AI) is gradually reshaping the way things are done all over the world, governments are turning to novel technologies to streamline processes and reduce administrative burdens and costs in public service delivery, including critical decisions affecting the rights of refugees and asylum seekers. While the deployment of AI for border control seems to be more pronounced in developed countries, it is gradually gaining traction in Africa. African governments are exploring the best ways to harness AI, not just for economic growth but also for improving their security architecture and border control. Indeed, AI can be of immense assistance to Africa in managing the refugee crisis. However, there is a need for deeper engagement on how these technologies may compromise the rights of refugees and asylum seekers in Africa, as it is being done in developed countries today. Whereas a harmful use of AI in refugee settings in Africa can exacerbate the existing crisis, a responsible use of AI can have alleviatory impacts. This research examines the role of the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) in this regard.
Topic:: Refugees, Artificial Intelligence, UN Security Council, Asylum, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

74. Critical Reflections on SADC’s approach to Regional Security: The case of SAMIM

Author:: Chikondi Chidzanja
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article is situated in the broader context of the challenges that peacekeeping, peace enforcement and counterinsurgency (COIN) missions are facing in executing their mandates. Although these challenges have been discussed mainly within the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping contexts, they have extended to the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) context. These challenges are noticeable in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, where the Southern African Development Community (SADC) deployed a mission, the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), with a counterterrorism mandate. This piece reflects on the lessons from the intervention for both SADC and its member states. The lessons focus on the host state’s consent and cooperation, self-funding, coordination with partners and lastly, host state ownership and responsibility for citizen protection. Both at the macro and micro level, the SAMIM intervention provides critical insights into the emerging ad hoc model for RECs as they assume responsibility for security sector governance architecture following gridlocks in the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the crisis of multilateralism. Following the UN General Assembly in 2024, which will be remembered for its overarching theme ‘Pact for the Future,’ the piece focuses on how SADC should navigate the aforementioned lessons to enhance sustainable peace and security in the region. Not many studies have focused on how host state consent, self-funding, coordination with partners, and host state ownership and responsibility can affect REC missions like SAMIM. The key question is the commitment of member states to the use of multilateral regional institutions and how these institutions promote the use of their frameworks to tackle common regional security issues while maintaining local agency. Broadly, some questions are: How can SADC and its member states work towards closer cooperation with consistency and in an adaptive manner without compromising the overall mandate of SADC as a regional body? At the same time, how can SADC member states stop viewing SADC as an afterthought in the peace and security sector?
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Counter-terrorism, Protection, Regional Security, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

75. Conflict Resolution by the African Union: Encounters of Peacekeeping Efforts in Somalia

Author:: Jacqueline Nakaiza and Charlotte Karungi Mafumbo
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Two of the goals set by the African Union (AU) were to promote peace, security and stability for socioeconomic development and to draft an agenda to tackle African problems. The aspiration of African Solutions for African Problems, under the norms of the responsibility to protect (R2P), prompted the AU to take up this responsibility in Somalia. Since the collapse of the state in 1991, Somalia has perpetually failed to secure its territory and protect its populace from self-destruction. It has also failed to respond to disasters, such as famine caused by drought. Somalia is suffering instability caused by Islamist groups who can easily operate in the country due to the absence of state institutions. When the United Nations (UN) Security Council is unwilling to act in a situation crying out for intervention, such as in Somalia, it authorises regional or sub-regional organisations under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter to intervene.1 The Security Council passed Resolution 1744 (2007) under this clause, mandating the AU to deploy troops to Somalia in 2007.2 The initial mandate to stabilise the country and pave the way for a UN Peace Operation was six months long.3 Regarding interventions, Article 4(h) of the AU Constitutive Act clearly states: ‘the AU has the right to intervene in a Member State according to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely: war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity.’4 As such, the protection of the fundamental rights of citizens is not a purely domestic concern and sovereignty cannot shield repressive states from intervention by the AU. This article in the AU Constitutive Act was invoked after the reluctance of the international community to intervene in Somalia.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

76. Artisanal Mining in Zimbabwe: A Complex Narrative of Balancing Economic Gains and Social Strife

Author:: Rumbidzaishe Matambo
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) ‘refers to mining by individuals, groups, families or cooperatives with minimal or no mechanisation, often in the informal (illegal) sector of the market’.1 A distinction can, however, be made between artisanal mining and small-scale mining. Artisanal and small-scale miners rely on basic tools and limited technology to mine gemstones and key minerals and metals such as gold, cobalt, tin, tungsten, and tantalum.2 These materials are vital to the global economy, supporting essential products such as computers, mobile phones, aircraft, medical devices, and rechargeable batteries.3 A significant share of these metals is sourced through ASM. Driven by the steady demand for these goods, artisanal miners persist in their work, often facing dangerous and exploitative conditions, including child labour and other human rights violations.4 Due to limited resources, ASM activities are usually confined to surface and shallow underground mining, representing the simpler side of small-scale mining.5 Historically, ASM is a traditional practice with roots stretching back centuries across various cultures. Since ancient times, artisanal mining has been a core economic activity, supplying materials for adornments, tools, and construction, and was the dominant form of mining until the Industrial Revolution.6
Topic:: Crime, Mining, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

77. ‘Something for Something’: The Face of Peace and Security in Africa under Trump 2.0

Author:: Joel Odota
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The second Trump Administration is reverberating across global systems – politically, economically, socially, and culturally. The world is observing an increasingly transactional and disruptive foreign policy approach, from dramatic aid cuts to multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations (UN), to militaristic threats in West Asia and elsewhere and a regressive stance on gender rights. One of the defining characteristics of this Administration is the emergent doctrine of ‘something for something,’ whereby the United States (US) engagement in global affairs, particularly in peace and security, is conditional upon tangible benefits – primarily economic or strategic resources. A pertinent example of this approach is the Trump Administration’s reported demand for 50% of Ukraine’s critical minerals – including graphite, uranium, titanium, and lithium – in exchange for continued security assistance.[1] Lithium, essential in battery production for electric vehicles, is of particular strategic interest. A similar arrangement appears to be unfolding in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where the African government is seeking a security deal with Washington in exchange for access to the country’s abundant natural resources. In fact, Trump appointed his in-law Massad Boulos as the Senior Advisor for Africa, and Massad’s first overseas trip was to the DRC, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. The visit was to do two things: to ‘get more momentum on the peace agreement and the peace process in eastern DRC, and also, how to bring US investment to the region in Central Africa and the Great Lakes region.’[2] A review of Senior Advisor Boulos’s professional background reveals a strategic alignment with President Trump’s objectives in the DRC. Boulos brings decades of experience in sectors closely tied to the Administration’s emerging interest in resource-for-security exchanges. Notably, he previously held senior executive roles, including Director of Peugeot Nigeria Ltd., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Nissan Nigeria Ltd., and Managing Director/CEO of SCOA Nigeria Group. The SCOA Group is a prominent conglomerate engaged in the assembly, distribution, sales, and servicing of a wide range of global brands in sectors such as automotive, construction and mining equipment, agriculture, power generation, oil and gas, and industrial machinery. Additionally, the company has substantial interests in contracting and real estate development. Boulos’s extensive background in extractive industries and infrastructure development, especially within the African context, positions him as a key figure in shaping and advancing Trump’s transactional approach to US-Africa relations, particularly in countries like the DRC where strategic natural resource access is a central concern.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Leadership, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

78. The African Union’s Pace of Integration: The Sahelian Crisis as a Challenge to Supranational Expectations

Author:: Matteo Peccini
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This article contributes to the ongoing and dynamic debate surrounding the process of continental integration promoted by the African Union (AU). The article investigates how the African integration process has evolved, particularly from the perspective of peace and security, with a specific focus on the case study of the central Sahel. How can the continental approach to the Sahelian crisis be assessed in light of the AU’s longstanding integrative ambitions in the fields of peace and security? Can the instability in the Sahel be considered a missed opportunity for strengthening the continental response to such a significant crisis? This article reflects on these central questions and proposes the Sahel as a potential lens through which to interpret broader continental dynamics.
Topic:: Security, Peacekeeping, Peace, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

79. The Pitfalls of Regionalising National Dialogues

Author:: Chido Mutangadura-Yeswa
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: National dialogues can provide continental and regional actors with entry points to manage political and electoral violence through multi-track diplomacy. Multi-track diplomacy refers to the expansion of international engagement to a multiplicity of levels outside of the traditional diplomatic high-level channels. Multi-track diplomacy is linked to the whole-of-society approach to conflict management. This approach promotes adopting inclusive strategies to transform complex and multi-dimensional conflicts.[1] This shifts the focus away from traditional, high-level engagement among heads of states, diplomats and high-ranking officials. Multi-track diplomacy instead engages multiple conflict stakeholders in coordinated multi-level dialogues. Multi-track diplomacy in Africa translates into regionalising national dialogues because mediators deployed by the African Union (AU) and regional economic communities (RECs) engage with conflict actors largely within state-organised or, at the least, state-sanctioned frameworks. The East African Community’s (EAC) intervention during the Burundi political crisis from 2015 to 2019 demonstrates the opportunities and challenges presented by regionalising national dialogues in peace processes. Burundi’s political crisis was triggered by the presidential candidate nomination of Pierre Nkurunziza by the National Council for the Defence of Democracy – Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD). The CNDD-FDD’s decision caused a political crisis leading to large-scale protests, government crackdowns, an attempted coup d’état, and militia attacks on military garrisons. By 2018, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that over 430 000 refugees had fled the country due to the crisis.[2] The EAC’s Inter-Burundi Dialogue eventually emerged as the main preventive diplomacy intervention with Tanzania’s late former president, Benjamin Mkapa, as the facilitator and Uganda’s president, Yoweri Museveni, as the chief mediator.[3] The Inter-Burundi Dialogue was conducted as a series of multi-track problem-solving workshops between December 2015 and October 2018. The problem-solving workshops were categorised into ecumenical, women, youth, political parties, and business leaders. The initiative ended with the attendees signing non-violence pacts. Additionally, Benjamin Mkapa held consultative meetings with a wide range of actors, from grassroots to high-level government officials and international actors, before each round of the main dialogue. This article looks at how the Inter-Burundi Dialogue provides insights into how crackdowns on civic spaces, lack of formal regional citizen engagement channels, and government’s lack of cooperation complicate attempts to regionalise national dialogues. The article draws upon my PhD research,[4] which examined the role of regional organisations in promoting citizen participation in election violence prevention processes in Africa, and included 35 in-depth interviews with officials from intergovernmental organisations, civil society representatives in Burundi and expert sources.
Topic:: Mediation, Regionalization, Peace Process, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

80. The Palaver Tree and the Notions of National Tribunal and Republican Confessional: Reclaiming the African Conflict Resolution Ethos in National Dialogues

Author:: Jean Yves Ndzana Ndzana
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: In the past two decades, national dialogues have become a recurring feature in post-conflict transitions and governance reform across Africa. These processes are often convened to respond to crises of legitimacy, protracted violence, or political fragmentation. While national dialogues are widely acknowledged as participatory mechanisms intended to rebuild social contracts and create pathways for peaceful political transitions, their outcomes have often been mixed. Some have helped usher in new constitutional orders or restore relative stability, while others have collapsed due to elite manipulation, the exclusion of key stakeholders, or a lack of follow-through on agreed-upon resolutions. Despite growing attention from international organisations and regional bodies, such as the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), many national dialogues remain vulnerable to a key limitation: a failure to ground the process in locally legitimate and culturally resonant frameworks of dialogue and consensus-building.[1] One of the critical yet overlooked dimensions in the design of national dialogues in Africa is the limited incorporation of anthropologically grounded approaches to conflict resolution. Indeed, in many instances, these dialogues replicate procedural blueprints modelled on Western liberal notions of deliberation, often emphasising electoral legitimacy, adversarial bargaining, or constitutional legality. However, these externally driven frameworks usually ignore the rich and deeply rooted traditions of communal dialogue, reconciliation, and restorative justice in African societies. As scholars and peace practitioners have increasingly observed, successful peace processes in Africa require not only institutional inclusiveness but also cultural intelligibility.[2] A national dialogue that resonates with local modes of reasoning and social organisation is more likely to secure legitimacy, mobilise trust, and foster sustainable reconciliation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Tribunal, National Dialogue, and Palaver Trees
Political Geography:: Africa

81. National Dialogues in Africa’s Fragile States: Power Struggles, Diversity Management, and the Precarious Fight Against State Collapse

Author:: Distinct Obuzor Imaka and Tonye Marclint Ebiede
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: National dialogues have become an increasingly important conflict management tool in countries facing political instability, conflict, or transitions of power. In many African contexts, it is often seen as a last resort by national stakeholders, an attempt to prevent complete collapse or to guide a nation through a significant political shift. Unlike traditional negotiations that usually involve only political elites or those in power, national dialogues are designed to be more inclusive. They bring together a wide range of voices from across society, including opposition groups, civil society, religious leaders, and community representatives. In recent years, this approach has gained prominence in Africa as a response to ongoing crises. While the outcomes of national dialogues have been mixed, they are generally seen as opportunities to reset national priorities, address long-standing grievances, and open pathways toward reform and reconciliation. This article examines the role of national dialogues in Africa’s fragile states, where contested power, deep divisions, and the risk of state collapse shape the political landscape. In such situations, national dialogue has emerged as a way to manage diversity, resolve conflict, and create space for inclusive reform. The article explores how these dialogues navigate power struggles and whether they offer a meaningful path toward long-term stability.
Topic:: Security, Peace, Mediation, Fragility, and National Dialogue
Political Geography:: Africa

82. The End of Françafrique: A Second Decolonisation Wave in Africa

Author:: Angela Meyer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: On 28 November 2024, Chad formally declared in a press communiqué to terminate the defence accord with France which had been in place since 1976. This announcement came only a couple of hours after the visit of French Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, to N’Djaména. On the same day, the Senegalese president Bassirou Diomaye Faye announced that France would close its military bases in Senegal, as their presence is incompatible with the country’s sovereignty. Both African countries were long regarded as being stable allies of France on the African continent and pillars of the elite-centred network of economic, political, and military influences that Paris has been maintaining with most of its former colonies. The end of military cooperation with Chad and Senegal is thus another bitter blow for French foreign policy. This is all the more so as it follows a prevailing trend in francophone West and Central Africa: the open rejection of the so-called Françafrique. Propelled by the emergence of a multipolar world order and harnessed by anticolonial narratives, we are witnessing a new era of African sovereigntism that is closing the chapter of postcolonial special relationship between France and Africa.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, History, and Decolonization
Political Geography:: Africa, France, and Sahel

83. The European Union and the Sahel: the day after

Author:: Angela Meyer, Loïc Simonet, and Johannes Späth
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Geopolitics are changing fast in the Sahel. Over the past three years, the region, one of the most impoverished and imperilled of the world, has undergone a dramatic cycle of regime change and alliance shift, which has significantly challenged the strategy and engagement of the European Union (EU) and its member states in the region. Against the background of this severe crisis in EU-Africa relations and growing anti-Western sentiments, new international players are appearing or increasing their influence, such as the Russian Federation, China and Turkey. It is now urgent for the EU to acknowledge the new situation in the Sahel region and rethink its approach. If Europe wants to remain engaged in the region, it should forge a new path guided by day-after policies, with a view to rebuilding trust in the EU as a reliable partner. This Policy Analysis draws on the Panel Discussion held at the oiip on 28 November 2024 on the same topic, in cooperation with the Austrian Federal Ministry of Defence (bmlv). This piece dives into the drivers of the Sahel region’s geopolitical dynamics and critically investigates the shortcomings of the EU’s approach to the region. It concludes with actionable recommendations for recalibrating the EU’s Sahel policy to address past mistakes, prevent further damage, and adapt to the region’s evolving realities.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sahel

84. Europe's migration block crumbles in Niger

Author:: Hans Lucht
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Frontex has warned that Russia could leverage migration and growing influence in Libya and the Sahel to put pressure on Europe. Based on fieldwork in Niger, this policy brief analyses the shifting political realities on the ground. Driving from the airport in Niamey to the city centre after the coup remains a familiar journey except for the new Russian flags at the roundabouts, alongside those of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. Since the ousting of the democratically elected president, Mohammed Bazoum, in July 2023 Niger’s military rulers fronted by General Tchiani have thrown out the former colonial power France, turned their backs on Europe and the US, and formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with the political and military backing of Russia. This new and challenging scenario in the Sahel has had a profound impact on several important European priorities in the region. These range from fighting militant jihadism, to great power rivalry with Russia, competition over rich African energy and natural resources, development assistance, and also reducing irregular migration to southern Europe.
Topic:: Migration, European Union, Borders, and FRONTEX
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Libya, Sahel, and Niger

85. Battle for the bush: Banditry and violent agrarian change in northwest Nigeria

Author:: Peer Schouten and James Barnett
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Contemporary banditry in northwest Nigeria is a multifaceted phenomenon that encompasses a wide spectrum of violence waged by heavily militarised yet loosely organised rural gangs. These groups engage in everything from cattle rustling to kidnapping for ransom and extortion of peasant communities, with bandits becoming important de facto authorities in swathes of rural northwest Nigeria. Underpinning the contemporary bandit conflict, we argue, is an ongoing ‘battle for the bush’ — a struggle over land, governance and rural livelihoods. Historically, the bush functioned as a shared space for farmers and pastoralists. However, land use data shows that the expansion of cropland farming has gradually overtaken grazing lands, reducing pastoral mobility and generating increasing conflicts. The state’s failure to mediate these tensions or provide equitable land policies, coupled with the breakdown of traditional conflict resolution mechanisms, has allowed grievances to fester. In response, bandits have violently reclaimed and reshaped the governance of the bush, not only as a refuge but as a domain of coercive rule, imposing levies on farming and controlling access to land and cattle. We examine the historical drivers of this transformation and analyse how opportunistic criminals and social bandits have evolved into de facto rural rulers. Along the way, the trend of cropland expansion is being reversed. Yet instead of reestablishing a pastoral idyll, banditry is reproducing the very conditions that gave rise to it, further undermining rural livelihoods in the northwest. This has compounded rural poverty and food insecurity while depriving pastoralist youths’ access to government services and education that could provide for a better future. Our analysis implies that the crisis cannot be solved through military interventions alone but requires a rethinking of rural governance.
Topic:: Agriculture, Land Conflict, Farmer-Pastoralist Conflict, and Banditry
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

86. Ghana’s electrification via rural mini-grids has been disappointing

Author:: Abdul-Bassit Abubakari
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Despite Ghana’s explicit plans to deploy mini-grids for the electrification of off-grid and remote communities, progress has been slow and disappointing. This paper explores how political dynamics and policy shifts have shaped the governance of mini-grids over time. It examines the evolution of mini-grids in Ghana in three phases: preliminary design stage (2007–2013); active implementation period, marked by policy modifications (2013–2019); and subsequent consolidation under a predominantly public-led model post-2019. Guided by an adapted political settlements framework and process tracing methodology, the paper argues that misalignment between the government of Ghana and donors over governance and ownership models, mediated by the country’s competitive clientelist politics, explains Ghana’s limited progress in the development of mini-grids. The paper provides nuanced insights into the complex ways transnational factors and domestic politics interact in shaping the development of mini-grids with wide implications for debates on energy governance and reform in sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:: Environment, Natural Resources, Electricity, and Development Policy
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

87. The crisis of multilateralism and African peace operations

Author:: Corine van Emmerik and Peter Albrecht
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Resolution 2719, adopted in December 2023, holds the potential to be a watershed in how the UN and the broader international community support African-led peace operations. However, its implementation is faltering amid political inertia, technical hurdles, and US hostility toward global institutions.1 2719 authorised the UN to use ‘assessed contributions’ – mandatory payments by member states – to cover 75% of the costs of African Union (AU) missions, with the AU expected to provide the remaining 25%. Early messaging around 2719 suggested that it might provide stable funding for peace operations on the continent that has hosted the majority of peacekeeping missions since the Cold War. It would recognise that Africans conduct the vast majority of fighting in security operations, yet enjoy neither political leadership of deployments nor financial support that reflects their sacrifice in providing an international public good. However, the resolution has not yet been tested in practice, and geopolitical disruption has caused political momentum to stall. A stable funding basis for African-led peacekeeping now appears increasingly out of reach, as the US retreats from the very institutions of the liberal world order it once claimed to champion, though often inconsistently in practice. The future of the resolution now hinges on a Security Council vote in May 2025, which will determine whether it applies to the AU’s mission in Somalia – the only active AU-led peace operation and therefore the only obvious test case.2
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Multilateralism, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa

88. Fragile Ceasefire: Will international efforts succeed in halting the escalation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo?

Author:: FARAS
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: In response to the escalating humanitarian crisis in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the coalition of rebel groups led by the M23 movement[1] announced a ceasefire on February 4, 2025. The decision came after intense military clashes in the city of Goma, which had been intensifying since January 25. According to the United Nations, the conflict has had devastating consequences, resulting in at least 900 deaths, approximately 2,880 injuries, and the displacement of over 400,000 people since the beginning of the year.
Topic:: Ceasefire, Armed Conflict, and M23
Political Geography:: Africa, Rwanda, and Democratic Republic of Congo

89. Foreign policy congruence in Africa: Evidence on free movement and free trade

Author:: Florian G. Kern, Martin C. Steinwand, and Samira Diebire
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: How does foreign policy of African governments reflect the preferences of their constituents? Scholars have studied public opinion in Africa and how constituents assess government performance. Yet social scientists neglect how and why foreign policy by African governments reflects public opinion, despite much anecdotal evidence of citizens expressing opinion on African foreign policy. In this paper, we investigate the congruence of governmental foreign policy positions and public opinion on issues of free movement and free trade across 34 African countries. We explore two drivers of foreign policy congruence: first democratic vs. autocratic government, and second external rents accruing from natural resources, aid, and remittances. Our descriptive evidence suggests that, on free trade, African publics tend to be more trade-sceptic than the liberalised policy positions of their governments, meaning low foreign policy congruence. On free movement, low foreign policy congruence stems from African constituents preferring more liberalisation than what governments provide. Surprisingly, multivariate analysis indicates that democracies show lower foreign policy congruence than autocracies on issues of free trade. We argue that this may be because democracies systemically oversupply market liberalisation. We cannot find an effect of external rents on foreign policy congruence.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Free Trade, Freedom of Movement, and Globalism
Political Geography:: Africa

90. How China Collateralizes

Author:: Anna Gelpern, Omar Haddad, Sebastian Horn, Paulina Kintzinger, Bradley C. Parks, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the secured lending practices of Chinese creditors in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We present a new dataset and detailed case studies of collateralized public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) loans from Chinese state-owned institutions in EMDEs between 2000 and 2021. Almost half of China's total PPG loan portfolio to EMDEs is effectively collateralized - amounting to $420 billion in collateralized debt across 57 countries. We document that Chinese lenders use techniques adapted from export and project finance to build multi-layered legal safety nets, which help ensure that risky EMDE loans will be repaid. As security, they use liquid, easily accessible assets, such as cash in bank accounts located in China. They rarely take infrastructure project assets as collateral, but often rely for repayment on established commodity revenue streams unrelated to the project. Typically, EMDE governments and state-owned enterprises commit to route foreign currency proceeds from commodity sales through bank accounts controlled by the lender. The cash balances in these accounts can be very large; in low-income, commodity-exporting countries, they average more than 20% of annual PPG debt service to all external creditors. The same revenue source can secure multiple successive borrowings over many years. Our findings reveal a previously undocumented pattern of revenue ring-fencing, where a significant share of commodity export receipts never reaches the exporting countries. Revenues routed overseas secure priority repayment for the creditor; they remain out of public sight and largely beyond the borrower’s reach until the secured debts are repaid. These findings raise new concerns about debt transparency, fiscal management, fiscal autonomy, and the quality of macroeconomic surveillance, particularly in commodity-exporting EMDEs.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Americas

91. Identifying Mutual Interests: How Donor Countries Benefit from Foreign Aid

Author:: Tobias Heidland, Maximilian Michael, Moritz Schularick, and Rainer Thiele
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:: Official development assistance (ODA) is widely studied for its impact on recipient countries, but its effects on donor countries remain underexplored. To address this gap systematically, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding when foreign aid generates measurable returns for donor countries as well as those cases when donor and recipient interests align—what we term mutual interest ODA. We categorize potential donor benefits into three domains: economic, geopolitical, and security-related, and distinguish these benefits by their timing and degree of directness. We then systematically survey the empirical evidence on donor benefits, assessing the empirical credibility and magnitude of estimated effects and pointing out research gaps. We find consistent evidence of substantial donor benefits across all three domains. A key insight is that aggregate aid flows often mask significant variation: The returns to donors depend critically on the type of aid, delivery modality, and recipient context. These findings have important implications for both academic and policy debates on the effectiveness, political sustainability, and future direction of development aid.
Topic:: Climate Change, Globalization, Health, International Trade and Finance, Migration, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Asia, and Americas

92. The war in Sudan in the era of a multipolar world: Mismanaged rather than forgotten

Author:: Katariina Mustasilta
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The war in Sudan is not a “forgotten war”. Rather, it is a highly internationalised geopolitical battleground, reflecting old peacebuilding failures and key implications of the shifting international order for conflict dynamics. Nor is it a proxy war, as the involvement of external actors is opportunistic and issue-based, with state powers supporting different sides while maintaining cooperative ties elsewhere. Peace efforts in Sudan are fragmented and heavily influenced by geopolitical agendas, sidelining civilian agency and undermining multilateral frameworks for peace. For the EU, Sudan presents a challenge in reconciling its values-based approach with its pursuit of pragmatic foreign policy. From a long-term strategic perspective, it is imperative to support Sudanese-led peace efforts beyond transactional deals.
Topic:: War, Geopolitics, Crisis Management, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

93. Drivers of Extremist Sympathies: Security, Ideology, and Firearms in Lebanon and Tunisia

Author:: Doaa' Elnakhala, Gergely Hideg, and Darine Atwa
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Lebanon and Tunisia share a common struggle against extremism, but the social, political, religious, and ideological make-up of each country is quite different. The Small Arms Survey conducted a general population survey in the two countries between September and November 2023, in which 3,339 adults were interviewed about their views on key elements of their lives, violent extremism, and firearms. Drivers of Extremist Sympathies: Security, Ideology, and Firearms in Lebanon and Tunisia—the latest Briefing Paper from the Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project—demonstrates a clear linkage between firearms and violent extremism, though manifested differently in the two countries. The paper also demonstrates that chronic insecurity and the absence of effective state-provided security play a significant role in fostering affinity for violent extremist groups. The findings have implications for other countries struggling with similar issues, both in the Middle East and North Africa region and beyond.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Violent Extremism, Weapons, and Ideology
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Lebanon, and Tunisia

94. Africa’s Faustian Bargain with the International Monetary Fund

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: Decades of IMF interventions have locked African nations into cycles of debt, austerity, and economic dependency, stifling real development while reinforcing neocolonial control over the continent’s financial sovereignty.
Topic:: Debt, Development, International Monetary Fund, Austerity, Economic Dependence, Neocolonialism, and Financial Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Africa

95. The Bandung Spirit

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: In 1955, the leaders of former Global South colonies met in Bandung, Indonesia, brought together by a common spirit for national liberation and cooperation. Seventy years later, is there any trace of it left?
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, History, Global South, and Internationalism
Political Geography:: Africa, Indonesia, and Asia

96. The Sahel Seeks Sovereignty

Author:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:: 08-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:: On the heels of popular military coups, how are Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger returning to a path of sovereignty while navigating a legacy of dependency and internal-external security challenges?
Topic:: Security, Development, Sovereignty, Coup, and Economic Dependence
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

97. Understanding Uganda’s (ambiguous) actions in Eastern DRC: Military interventions to protect roads and trade?

Author:: Kristof Titeca and Giovanni Salvaggio
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Much attention has been given to the role of Rwanda in the conflict in Eastern DRC, and its support to M23. Much less attention has been given to the role of Uganda. In this briefing, we aim to fill this gap. We will show how that Uganda’s presence in Eastern DRC has strong economic under- and overtones: much of Uganda’s actions are centered around protecting trade and roads in Eastern DRC. This builds on historical relations between Uganda and Congolese traders – particularly the Nande and Hema business community – with whom it had been discussing these issues in the years prior to their military intervention. In doing so, Uganda primarily protects its own interests, and has ambiguous relations with all key-actors in the conflict – M23, Kigali and Kinshasa. We will show this by first explaining the broader history of economic relations between Uganda and Eastern DRC, and second, link this to its current actions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, Trade, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Central Africa

98. Preventing Corruption in Africa’s Transition Mineral Supply Chains

Author:: Susannah Fitzgerald, Aaron Sayne, Mohamed Cisse, and Moise Liboto Makuta
Publication Date:: 09-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:: The current increasing attention to Africa’s mineral resources could attract much needed investment to the continent or power broader development goals, but many citizens view the prospect of a new mining boom with suspicion. The sector has become synonymous with harmful and costly corruption, often perpetrated by wealthy elites and foreign companies who are able to avoid its worst impacts. At the same time, anticorruption actors should be alert to new or shifting dynamics, such as the greater emphasis on value addition, or challenges around access to financing. They should also devote more attention to issues that have long been overlooked, such as the intersection between corruption and other types of harm in the mining sector. Failure to properly address corruption and its causes and consequences will only lead to more harm and instability, both for African countries and across the mineral supply chains needed to power the green transition. Tackling these issues effectively requires a deep understanding of the specific nature of corruption in each country, yet the drivers of corruption often have global roots. Long-lasting solutions to corruption must therefore be a shared responsibility between African leaders, decision-makers in major market jurisdictions, multilateral actors such as the African Union and the African Development Bank, companies across the supply chain, investors and the donor community. Addressing this corruption is therefore crucial, to avoid the injustices of the past. Many of the risks are well known, surrounding political access and civic space, licensing and contracting processes for mining projects, the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and processes for collecting revenues from the sector. This means that there are important lessons to learn from the efforts of reformers across the continent and beyond to tackle these harms.
Topic:: Corruption, Accountability, Transparency, Supply Chains, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

99. Regionalizing African Mineral Value Chains: Requirements for Success

Author:: Silas Olan'g, Thomas Scurfield, Anthony Black, and Michael Smith
Publication Date:: 10-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:: Regional cooperation can enhance the prospects for mineral value addition in Africa, but it requires governments, regional bodies and private sector actors to overcome a combination of political, economic and technical challenges at national and regional levels. Other regional initiatives within Africa and the rest of the world suggest six ways to improve the chances of establishing regional mineral value chains: 1. Start small and targeted: Build coalitions of willing governments around specific value chain opportunities, and allow technical capacity and trust to grow. 2. Engage the private sector: Transparently engage local and foreign private sector actors to identify and understand the market failures preventing value chain development and the opportunities available to advance it. 3. Share the benefits: Explore mechanisms that ensure all participating countries benefit— including through Africa’s more-developed countries showing leadership by supporting investments elsewhere in the region. 4. Strengthen regional institutions: Expand the mandate, capacity and resources of regional institutions, particularly their research and planning functions, to improve design and advocacy of regional cooperation. 5. Ensure African ownership: External partners should play an enabling—not driving—role, supporting regional institutions and initiatives while ensuring African leadership. 6. Foster public support: Use transparency, multistakeholder consultation and public outreach to build citizen buy-in and lasting political commitment.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Value Chains, Energy Transition, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

100. Strengthening Uganda’s Management of Uncertain Oil Revenues

Author:: Paul Bagabo and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI)
Abstract:: The Uganda government expects oil production to start in 2026, but how much government revenue this production will generate is uncertain. Projections by Rystad Energy and the Natural Resource Governance Institute average around USD 1.9 billion a year up to 2050 if the global energy transition is slow, but only $1 billion a year in a moderate transition scenario. While the government has established a revenue management framework with several strengths, the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) could finetune this framework before first oil through reforms to the Public Finance Management Act 2015 and via regulations. MoFPED could require that oil revenues are spent on diversifying the economy; legislate a stronger limit on recurrent spending; and clarify its approach to revenues deposited in the Petroleum Revenue Investment Reserve, including by prioritizing paying off high-interest debt and considering a stabilization buffer to use for significant shocks. In coordination with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development (MEMD) and Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC), MoFPED could clarify the procedure for financing UNOC investments from the Petroleum Fund, and UNOC’s ability to retain revenues, and ensure parliament has oversight of the company’s investment plans across a range of scenarios. MoFPED and MEMD could also clarify the mechanism for subnational revenue sharing, including which local governments and cultural or traditional institutions will receive a share and how that share will be determined.
Topic:: Oil, Fossil Fuels, Revenue, Energy Transition, and National Oil Companies
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS