Political Geography: Africa / Publication Year: within 5 Years and within 10 Years / Topic: Elections

1. Why Women Haven’t Been Successful in Nigerian Elections

Author:: Elor Nkereuwem
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Women’s representation in Nigerian politics has been on a downward slide since 2011, and the 2023 elections in Africa’s largest economy confirmed the expectations of poor outcomes for women. The number of women in Nigeria’s National Assembly has fallen by 19 percent compared to the last assembly, with women now occupying 3 percent of seats in the Senate and 4 percent in the House of Representatives.1 To understand why Nigerian women performed so poorly in the recent elections, the 2022 primary elections provided insight into the challenges and barriers faced by women aspirants and candidates. The results of the various parties’ primary elections highlight enduring limitations to women’s representation in competitive politics in Nigeria. The country ranks in the bottom ten globally in women’s representation in national parliaments, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU).2 This challenge of representation persists in spite of the near parity of voter registration between men and women in past election cycles.3
Topic:: Elections, Women, Domestic Politics, and Representation
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

2. Political Violence and the 2023 Nigerian Election

Author:: Andrea Carboni and Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 25 February 2023, Nigerians will elect a new president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly. Term limit legislation bars President Muhammadu Buhari from running for a third term, and the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Eighteen candidates are vying for the presidency, and at least 4,223 candidates are running for the 469 seats in the National Assembly.1 The presidential frontrunners include Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who has surprisingly led in the pre-election polls. Two weeks after the national election, on 11 March 2023, 28 out of 36 states will also elect a new governor, with 17 incumbent governors reaching their term limits and hence barred from re-running.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

3. Reflections on Nigeria’s Elections: Threats, potential outcomes and relevance to democracy in West Africa

Author:: Paul Osei-Kuffour
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: The upcoming presidential election in Nigeria has generated huge interest and enthusiasm within the sub-region. The election has been described as the most competitive since returning to multi-party democracy in 1999. This paper reflects on the prevailing context barely one month into the election. It discusses the relevance of the election to the sub-region, major reforms around the election and why it is receiving enormous attention in Nigeria and the whole of West Africa. It concludes with an analysis of the factors shaping the potential outcome of the election.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa, West Africa, and Nigeria

4. The Democratic Quality of Primaries in Ghana: A Look at the 2020 NPP Internal Party Elections

Author:: Gildfred Boateng Asiamah, Francisca Sarpong Owusu, and Alfred Torsu
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: In Ghana, political party primaries are not only a democratic imperative but also a constitutional requirement. However, no laws regulate the conduct of political party primaries in Ghana. Even the involvement of the national election management body, the Electoral Commission (EC), is limited to the counting and declaration of votes. This paper shares insights on the extent to which the parliamentary primaries conform to fundamental principles of democratic elections and identifies the mechanisms that party executives and leadership use to circumvent the democratic processes.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Political Parties, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

5. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018

Author:: Joshua Craze
Publication Date:: 10-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Though elections are now postulated for next year, South Sudan remains in crisis. Conflict continues to scar the country, and climatic shocks exacerbate already acute resource scarcity, leaving approximately 76 per cent of South Sudan’s population surviving on humanitarian assistance. The regime of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir survives by diverting revenues in three key areas—oil production, humanitarianism, and loans from international financial institutions—to the benefit of an elite class in Juba, but at the cost of the immiseration of the people of South Sudan. Pay Day Loans and Backroom Empires: South Sudan’s Political Economy since 2018—a Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Human Security Baseline Assessment for Sudan and South Sudan (HSBA) project—analyses this predatory political economy in South Sudan, and charts a shift from the use of wages to reward loyal appointees to a more obscure system based on the dispensations of favours.
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Political Economy, Elections, Conflict, and Revenue
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

6. Perceptions of Public Accountability and its Impacts on Democratic Stability in Nigeria: Observations from Akwa Ibom State

Author:: Lawrence I. Edet and Monday S. Akpakpan
Publication Date:: 12-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The manner at which public officials manipulates and won elections in Nigeria deeply depreciates the political value of the electorate and embolden such officials to refuse to be accountable to the masses. Thus, democracy in Nigeria has been profoundly endangered since Nigeria returned to democratic system of government in 1999 as a result of undemocratic practices, chiefly, the aspects that relates to elections and public accountability. At the center of these democratic misdemeanors in Nigeria is inherent lack of transparency and accountability of public leaders. This study therefore investigates perceptions of public accountability and its impacts on democratic stability in Nigeria with observations from Akwa Ibom State. The study articulated four objectives which translated into four research questions and four hypotheses. The Social Contract Theory was adopted for this study. The study also adopted descriptive research design and chi-square statistical technique to analyze the data collected. Research questionnaire was distributed to sample of 200 participants randomly selected from each of the three senatorial districts of Akwa Ibom State, totaling 600, which the researcher only retrieved 570 of it. The findings revealed among others that citizens’ views about the electoral processes influence their perceptions of democratic stability. The study recommended among others that the electoral processes should be very transparent to all citizens to enlist their trust and confidence in the political system.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Accountability, Transparency, and Public Officials
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

7. Enhancing political accountability in South Africa

Author:: Pranish Desai and Mxolisi Zondo
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Enshrined in the founding provisions of South Africa’s democratic constitution is the commitment to a “multi-party system of democratic government, to ensure accountability, responsiveness and openness”.1 Today, South Africa is entering a new form of multiparty governance through the emergence of coalition governments in municipalities across the country. Following the Constitutional Court’s June 2020 decision to strike down parts of the Electoral Act of 1998, there have also been critical discussions about whether our national and provincial electoral framework of proportional representation fosters the accountability and responsiveness to which our constitution aspires.2 Both the nascent era of widespread coalition governance and the debate over electoral reform occur while the confidence that citizens have in our democracy is depreciating. In order to revive South Africans’ belief in our democratic system, we must renew that system to improve accountability. Many of the policy proposals that Good Governance Africa (GGA) considers in this briefing already exist,3 but we evaluate them in specific relation to how they can deepen political accountability in South Africa. The upshot is that a shift in approach from our institutions, political parties, civil society and citizens themselves is required.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Accountability, Social Contract, and Coalition
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

8. Why Tunisia’s parliamentary electoral formula needs to be changed

Author:: Alexander Martin and John Carey
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: In light of the current political situation in Tunisia, this paper suggests that to avoid producing fragmented parliaments, the Tunisian electoral law should be amended and the Hare Quota-Largest Remainders (HQLR) formula should be replaced. A switch to either the D’Hondt or St.Lague divisors formulas would produce clearer winners and losers and foster accountability while preserving the proportional representation (PR) system.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Legislation, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

9. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:: Elections, Multi Party System, Partisanship, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

10. Shifting Patterns of Arab Politics

Author:: Lisa Anderson
Publication Date:: 01-2022
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Over the last seventy-five years, the endlessly shifting coalitions on the chessboard of Arab regional politics seem to have played by the same rules of the game. Yet, as private interests have become a major source of political power, there have been major changes in the powers and purposes of the players
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Private Sector, Strategic Interests, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: Africa and Middle East

11. The Tanzanian state response to COVID-19: Why low capacity, discursive legitimacy, and twilight authority matter

Author:: Amy S. Patterson
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Tanzania received significant global attention for its COVID-19 response during the first year of the pandemic. It did not share pandemic statistics, require masks, implement lockdowns, or close borders; it questioned testing and vaccine efficacy; and it emphasized traditional medicines as a cure. The country’s response reflected a centralized, paternalistic state that emerged under postcolonial president Julius Nyerere and that stressed self-reliance and national unity. Although local officials did have some discretion to respond, the state’s top-down solutions, its low capacity, and the broader campaign against bureaucratic corruption curtailed the space in which they could act. Nyerere’s legitimating discourse of nationalism, self-reliance, and paternalism further problematized the global cooperation needed to address the pandemic and limited the space in which civil society could challenge state actions. The state’s struggle for authority in the face of nonstate actors such as opposition parties and civil society groups led it to embrace strategies such as electoral authoritarianism to maintain control, thereby obscuring transparency and accountability in the pandemic. The focus on state capacity, legitimacy, and authority situate individual leaders’ actions in broader structural contexts, while also showing African state agency.
Topic:: Nationalism, Authoritarianism, Elections, Legitimacy, Capacity, and Authority
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

12. The impact of the quota system on women parliamentary representation in Morocco: A series of reforms or a regressive path?

Author:: Aberrafie Zaanoun
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: While the gradual improvement of the quota system increased the number of women in parliament, experiences so far show that the quota system has been used as an electoral tool by a political class that exploited affirmative action measures to seize more representative seats through kinship and personal connections. This paper looks at the contexts surrounding the implementation of the women’s quota in the Moroccan electoral system, its advantages and disadvantages, as well as the possibility of redirecting the quota system to achieve true political empowerment for women.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Democracy, Representation, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:: Africa and Morocco

13. The 25 July 2022 Scenarios in Tunisia: Uncertainty after the Referendum

Author:: Zied Boussen
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: The referendum on 25 July 2022 will mark yet another important date in Tunisia’s history. This paper seeks to examine these different scenarios, analyze their consequences, study their stakeholders, and determine their likelihood.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Elections, Referendum, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

14. Youth participation in Tunisia’s elections: Some possible solutions

Author:: Lamia Zargouni
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Tunisian youth’s limited participation in political life dates back to before the January 2011 revolution, and recent elections also provide clear examples of the lack of youth participation both as voters and as candidates. This article examines the reasons behind this lack of political participation and presents several ways forward to ensure more inclusive participation for Tunisian youth.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Youth, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

15. Somalia (Horn of Africa, part 2 of 2)

Author:: Guled Ahmed
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:: Guled Ahmed joins the program to discuss the political climate in Somalia, its recent elections, security conditions, and the role of external actors including the African Union, Gulf states, Turkey, and the U.S.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Elections, and African Union
Political Geography:: Africa, Turkey, Somalia, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and Horn of Africa

16. Efforts to mitigate elections in SADC countries becoming Covid-19 spreaders

Author:: Craig Moffat
Publication Date:: 04-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Gwede Mantashe, the Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, has threatened to judicially review the Zondo Commission’s (‘the Commission’) findings against him. This decision highlights legal and political weaknesses in South Africa’s democratic system. The law is unclear on whether the findings of a Commission of Inquiry (COI) could constitute administrative action reviewable in terms of the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act 3 of 2000 (PAJA). This was not sufficiently dealt with by the High Court the only time it previously faced a judicial review of a COI’s findings. Even if COI findings could constitute administrative action, it seems that the Commission’s findings and recommendations concerning Mantashe in particular are unlikely to be reviewable in terms of PAJA. The principle of legality would be his most viable option for a legal challenge, but on analysis it is unlikely Mantashe would succeed on this basis either. Moreover, challenging the findings of this Commission on legally dubious grounds underscores political weaknesses in the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party, and consequently the electoral system more generally. Not only does the proposed challenge by a senior party member in Cabinet undermine the ANC’s steadfast commitment to end entrenched corruption, but it also demonstrates that the party’s step-aside rule is too narrow. The rule does not impose political accountability on members implicated by COI findings unless they are criminally charged by the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA). This sets the bar too low for political accountability, which should not be equated with criminal liability. The ANC’s lenient stepaside rule, and its members’ use of legal technicalities to avoid political accountability, is dangerous in a proportional representation system with a one-party-dominant legislature. Voters elect a party in a closed list system, and so depend entirely on the ruling party to hold its members individually accountable for wrongdoing. The ANC needs to prove to the electorate that it takes this job seriously
Topic:: Elections, Crisis Management, Vaccine, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

17. Only game in town? Inequality and demand for democracy in Africa – a micro perspective

Author:: Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In this paper, the author explores whether perceived inequality is associated with demand for democracy among Africans. Past research has diverged on whether macro-level inequality should increase or decrease support for democracy, with some arguing that people might see democracy as a solution to inequality, and others that people might see it as a cause. I advance this literature by using a perceptual measure of inequality from Afrobarometer: how people feel their living situation compares to others’ in their country. I find that perceived equality is significantly associated with greater demand for democracy, while perceptions of relative deprivation and relative advantage are both associated with lower democratic demand. These effects are largely significant above and beyond the effect of absolute poverty and known predictors of support for democracy, such as free and fair elections and level of education.
Topic:: Education, Elections, Democracy, Inequality, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Africa

18. Broad support for multiparty elections, little faith in electoral institutions: Uganda in comparative perspective

Author:: Matthias Krönke
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: In the run-up to Uganda’s 2021 election, in which President Yoweri Museveni defeated Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, aka Bobi Wine, to claim a sixth term, violence reached unprecedented levels. More than 50 people were killed as security forces broke up opposition party gatherings, and several opposition members were arbitrarily detained (Arinaitwe, 2021). Although Election Day, 14 January, was relatively peaceful, more than 17.5 million Ugandans experienced a multiday Internet blackout, making social media platforms and news websites inaccessible at a time when they were in high demand (BBC, 2021; Moffat & Bennett, 2021). Election observers from the East African Community (EAC) noted malfunctioning biometric voter-verification machines and delays in the delivery of voting materials, among other issues, but joined domestic observers from the Citizens’ Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda in labeling the election largely free and fair. The Electoral Commission (EC) ultimately declared Museveni the winner with 58% of the vote – a comfortable lead over Bobi Wine (35%) and his fellow challengers (Moffat & Bennett, 2021; Yiga, 2021). Wine initially filed a court challenge in which he complained of soldiers stuffing ballot boxes, casting ballots for people, and chasing voters away from polling stations, but he later withdrew the case (Muhumuza, 2021). Court challenges after elections are commonplace in Uganda; since the country’s adoption of the fourth constitution in 1995, the outcome of every presidential race except the 2011 poll has been contested in court. Yet the courts have never overturned the results, even when they have acknowledged irregularities (Atuhaire, 2021). Beyond Museveni’s victory, what are the implications of the 2021 election for a country that returned to multiparty competition just 15 years ago? Should Ugandans be enthusiastic about a strong opposition showing as a sign of a healthy democracy at work, or will the prospect of enduring National Resistance Movement rule lead to disillusionment with democracy and the institutions that are meant to safeguard it – the EC and the courts? This policy paper aims to place the events of the 2021 election in perspective by examining public opinion data from Uganda over the past two decades. Despite a decade-long slide in Ugandans’ satisfaction with democracy, this analysis supports previous findings that more and more citizens have become “committed democrats” and view multiparty elections as tools for holding non-performing leaders accountable (Isbell & Kibirige, 2017; Kakumba, 2020; Kibirige, 2018). However, this investigation also points to decreasing trust in institutions that are meant to enforce the most basic of democratic processes – free and fair elections. Importantly, this negative trend cuts across the partisan divide. The analysis also shows that EC performance – both in executing its technical tasks and in refereeing fairly between competing parties – plays a crucial role in citizens’ evaluations of election quality. While public debate about reforming the EC is not new (Kibirige, 2016), the events of the 2021 election may provide impetus for intensifying efforts to increase transparency and improve communication on the part of the commission in order to enhance citizens’ satisfaction with the electoral process.
Topic:: Elections, Party System, Multi Party System, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

19. Kenya’s Political Violence Landscape in the Lead-Up to the 2022 Elections

Author:: Clionadh Raleigh and Caleb Wafula
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Kenya went to the polls on 9 August 2022 after a five-year cycle, marking the third general election since the promulgation of a new constitution in 2010. This represents the end of the second and final term of the Jubilee Alliance party government under President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, a current presidential contender. The presidential campaign between Raila Odinga — another ‘legacy’ candidate who has previously run four unsuccessful presidential campaigns — and Ruto has experienced some local troubles, but the focus during this campaign is whether the Kenyan electoral landscape has really shifted to emphasize class, demographic, and elite divisions.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

20. Tunisian Youth and Political Life: From Stagnation to Revival?

Author:: Zied Boussen and Mohammed Islam Mbarki
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Tunisian youth are no different from their peers across the world when it comes to their indifference to public life. This apathy towards politics is not new; it goes back before 14 January Revolution. A 2008 national survey of youth showed that around 83% of Tunisian youth were not concerned with politics and 64% were not concerned with elections or joining civil society associations. Nonetheless, the Tunisian youth surprised observers and played an essential role in the revolution that led to the fall of Ben Ali. Immediately after, however, they returned to their position of indifference. The political tensions and episodes of instability that accompanied the democratic transition disappointed the youth greatly and led to apathy towards politics in all its forms. Successive elections were the most glaring example of this attitude: the youth abandoned the ballots and stopped taking initiatives of political work, either as candidates or as voters. The rise of Kais Saied as a presidential candidate seemed to have reignited the Tunisian youth’s interest in politics. They walked with him through all the stages of his elections. They led his most unusual campaign at the smallest cost; they confronted media attacks against him and provided him with alternative and new media platforms that improved his image. This support brought the youth and Kais Saied closer together. Saied also showed great understanding of the youth’s economic and social demands and gave them priority. He shared their anger at the political establishment, so they decided to stand by him to punish the establishment that they see as the source of their successive disappointments. The results of the presidential elections, in which one candidate won the bulk of the votes of the youth participating in the elections, generated many questions about the reasons for the youth’s support of Kais Saied, and the hopes that they hanged on him. What can we infer from this experience that can benefit the youth political participation generally? How does this experience help us understand the actual needs that push young people to participate in public life?
Topic:: Political Activism, Elections, Youth, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Tunisia

21. Rebuilding Constitutionalism and Rule of Law in Zimbabwe

Author:: Stephen Buchanan-Clarke and Sikhululekile Mashingaidze
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:: Recommendations to the Zimbabwean government Commit to a new, inclusive pathway for a mediated, citizen-centred national dialogue to align with and enact the principles set out in the Zimbabwe Constitution of 2013, to resolve the current constitutional crisis and legitimacy question. Comprehensive legal, political, and economic reform is critical. Commit to the drafting and passing of a comprehensive electoral law consistent with the 2013 Constitution that guarantees the independence of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), allows for the appointment of an independent ZEC chair from outside of Zimbabwe, and prevents government from interfering with the work of the commission. Ensure a comprehensive delimitation exercise, extend the voter registration process, and ensure there is a transparent and comprehensive verification process to develop a credible voters’ roll. This would include allowing independent interested stakeholders from civil society, the media, and opposition parties access to inspect the voters’ roll prior to elections. Promote a free and fair election campaign environment for all players, and actively guard against voter intimidation by establishing a special body to investigate complaints of political violence and allow external independent observers early access to all voting stations prior to election day. Restore independence and citizen trust in the county’s public institutions through, for example, the institution of an independent and impartial judicial committee tasked with restoring judicial independence and making recommendations for complete judicial reform, to eradicate judicial corruption, ensure the independence of judges and improve the functioning of the courts. End partisanship in the police force, starting with undertaking investigations into allegations of human rights violations against the Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP) and other security sector agencies, and ensuring those responsible for such abuses are held accountable under the law.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, Reform, Elections, Constitution, Rule of Law, Police, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

22. Elections and Electoral Violence in Côte d’Ivoire: ECOWAS’s Efforts towards Stability

Author:: Mubin Adewumi Bakare
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election on 31 October 2020 marked the fifth presidential election held in the country since the death of the “pere foundateur de la nation” (father of the nation), Félix Houphouët-Boigny, in 1993. The election was held in a tense political and volatile security atmosphere, driven by opposition protests against President Alassane Ouattara’s third-term candidacy, which was a breach of the 2016 constitution. The political contest among the political stakeholders also bordered on matters around the electoral code, the voter register, implementation of the constitutional reforms and the composition of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), which opposition parties denounced as non-inclusive, unbalanced and partisan.[1] The inability of the ruling party and the opposition parties – which formed a common political front, led by Henri Konan Bédié – to reach common ground in addressing these issues led to a series of protests, which escalated into violence across the country. On the eve of the election, Bédiéand Pascal Affi N’Guessan, the two major opposition candidates, reneged their participation in the election and called on their supporters to block the election. The election result declared by the IEC proclaimed Ouattara as the winner, having amassed 94.27% of the votes cast. N’Guessan got 0.99%, Bédié was credited with 1.66% and Kouadio Konan Bertin obtained 1.99%.[2] These results, which were ratified by the Constitutional Council on 9 November 2020, as stipulated in the constitution, endorsed President Ouattara as the winner. However, N’Guessan, on behalf of the opposition parties, announced his non-recognition of Ouattara’s victory and thereby installed a National Transitional Council, with Bédié as the president.Protests by opposition parties and their supporters led to violence, which resulted in about 85 deaths recorded in localities including Yopougon, Bonoua, Mbatto, Bongouanou, Daoukro and others.
Topic:: Elections, Election watch, Domestic Policy, and Opposition
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

23. Ethiopian Perspective: Elections in Strained Dynamics

Author:: Anwar Ibrahim
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: The election, which was held in Ethiopia on Monday, June 21, 2021, was the most complicated election that the country has witnessed in more than three decades, or, more accurately, since the 1994 constitution was approved. The reason is that this election was held amid lots of internal challenges, not to mention the strong criticism of its legitimacy (both domestically and internationally) even before it was held. Ethiopians are warily looking forward to the results, which are supposed to be announced within a few days, despite that it is not unlikely that these results will escalate the tensions in an already unrest-ridden country.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Conflict, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Tigray

24. Libya Turns the Page

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Libyan politicians have moved with salutary speed in 2021 to reunify their divided country. With UN help, the new government should hasten to clear two last hurdles: establishing a legal framework for elections and clarity about who holds supreme command of the armed forces.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Military Strategy, Elections, State Building, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Libya, North Africa, and MENA

25. A Turbulent Run-up to Elections in Somalia

Author:: Andrea Carboni and Mohamed Daud
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Somalia’s parliamentary and presidential elections are set to take place amidst a general climate of political tensions and violence. A constitutional crisis stoked by months of political deadlock between President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed ‘Farmaajo’ and the opposition threatens to escalate into a violent conflict pitting federal forces against state-based militias, as well as armed clans with competing loyalties. Across the country, signs of increasing unrest have surfaced in Somalia’s federal states of Jubaland, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle, exposing the risk of a violent turn in Somalia’s political crisis.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

26. Tanzania’s 2020 Election: Return of the One-Party State

Author:: Michaela Collord
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Beginning with early voting in Zanzibar on October 27, 2020, Tanzanians went to the polls in a general election for district councilors, Members of Parliament (MPs) and the President. As official results began to be declared, it became clear that Tanzania’s long-time ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, had won a landslide. After significant opposition party gains in recent elections, these results constituted a dramatic reversal and a de facto return to one-party rule. Opposition parties continue to challenge this outcome, denouncing what they affirm was not a genuine election but a state-orchestrated sham. Reflecting on these dramatic shifts, this study addresses two questions: What explains the election results? And what are the implications for Tanzanian politics going forward? The main point is that the 2020 elections were a result of President John Pombe Magufuli’s efforts to consolidate authoritarian control after he first came to power in 2015. The study outlines how Magufuli used his first term not only to marginalize opposition parties but also to centralize power within the ruling party. It then examines how these processes intensified ahead of the election, culminating in the official declaration of an overwhelming Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) victory at all levels. The note concludes by discussing the implications of this election outcome for Magufuli’s second term, focusing on his control of parliament and the possibility of a constitutional amendment lifting presidential term limits.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Africa and Tanzania

27. Constituting Committees in the Eighth Parliament: Harnessing the Opportunities Inherent in a Hung Parliament

Author:: Regina Oforiwa Amanfo Tetteh
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: Since the incepon of the 4th Republic, governments in power have enjoyed majority, and in some cases, overwhelming majority in parliament, the only excepon being the current parliament aer the 2020 elecons. The first parliamentary elecon of the 4th Republic which the New Patrioc Party (NPP) boyco ed, the Naonal Democrac Congress (NDC) won 189 out of the 200 seats. The remaining 11 seats were picked by the Naonal Convenon Party, 8 seats, Every Ghanaian Living Everywhere (EGLE) Party, 1 seat and independent MPs, 2 seats. The 1996 parliamentary elecon produced an outcome that again gave majority to the ruling party (i.e. NDC, 131 seats; NPP, 63 seats; CPP, 5 seats; and PNC, 1 seat. This trend of majority MPs generally ge ng elected on the ckets of ruling pares connued through to the 7th Parliament of the 4th republic, even though in some cases it was a slim majority (e.g. 3rd parliament). In instances where there was a slim majority for the governing party, the pracce whereby MPs elected on the cket of smaller polical pares and those who contested the parliamentary elecon as independent candidates decide to do business with the majority side gave governments the numbers. The December 7 2020, parliamentary elecon, produced a legislature that departed from the norm. The main opposion NDC garnered 137 seats, exactly the same as what the governing party, NPP obtained with an independent candidate picking the remaining single seat. As usual, the independent MP, who is a die in the wool NPP but went independent because of some challenges with the party prior to the elecons pitched camp with the governing NPP. The outcome of the 2020 parliamentary elecon is therefore historic and very significant for the 4th Republic, especially as the country works towards strengthening and consolidang its young parliamentary democracy. Nevertheless, a number of Ghanaians and organizaons involved in parliamentary monitoring work may be wondering what this equal numerical strength means for parliamentary work, especially the substanve work at the Committee level.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Elections, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

28. The Challenges for Social Movements in Post-Mugabe Zimbabwe

Author:: Gladys Kudzaishe Hlatywayo and Charles Mangongera
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Civil society and social movements have long been at the center of pushing back against corruption and authoritarian practices. Zimbabwe was no exception in the run-up to the November 2017 coup d’état that ousted Robert Mugabe after four decades of unaccountable rule. This report, based on in-country interviews and focus group discussions, examines the transition that followed the coup to draw broader lessons for how the international community can support, without harming, grassroots nonviolent action initiatives in countries undergoing profound political shifts.
Topic:: Politics, Social Movement, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Coup
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

29. Elections and Democratic Deficits in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic: A Commentary

Author:: Al-Chukwuma Okoli, Chigozie Joseph Nebeife, and Markus Arum Izang
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: This study examines elections and democratic deficit in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. The essence is to interrogate the seemingly ironic reversals of democratic tenets in the processes of politics and governance, even as the country democratizes. The paper contends that Nigeria’s experience with democracy has largely amounted to nominal civilianizing, in view of the fact that what is on course has not fulfilled minimal requirements of the democratic order
Topic:: Government, Elections, Democracy, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

30. Trust in Political Power and Government Institutions in Mozambique: 2014-2018

Author:: Kátia Sara Henriques Xavier Zeca
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: The purpose of this article is to understand voters’ confidence in the institutions of political power in Mozambique. The question that arises is what is the level of voter confidence in the institutions of political power? For the purposes of this research, the following political institutions were considered: Assembly of the Republic, National Election Commission (CNE, in Portuguese), Police, Army and Judicial Courts. Throughout the text, the CNE is emphasized because it is the institution responsible for managing the entire electoral process. And because the article is based around the issues of trust and democratization, some concepts will be discussed here that will support the conclusions presented: institutions, democratization, consolidated democracy.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Democracy, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

31. Ending Gender Violence in Elections: Inclusion of Women in Kenyan Politics and the National Dialogue Process from a Transitional Justice Perspective

Author:: Agatha Ndonga and Kelli Muddell
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: In its primary findings, Kenya's Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission noted that women and girls have been subject to systematic, state-sanctioned discrimination in all spheres of their lives, and that the state has failed to take measures to end the practices that restrict women’s political involvement. This paper highlights the need to overcome the political challenges Kenyan women face: their exclusion from political life, the continued violence against them during electoral contests, and their inability to rise to leadership positions in the country.
Topic:: Political Violence, Gender Issues, Elections, Gender Based Violence, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

32. Overcoming atrocities: An opportunity for change in Burundi

Author:: Elisabeth Pramendorfer
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:: Earlier this month, on 18 June, Burundi swore in Évariste Ndayishimiye as the country’s new president, nearly one month after winning a contested election against Agathon Rwasa and other opposition candidates. The accelerated inauguration process followed the unexpected death of President Pierre Nkurunziza on 8 June. Amidst this rapid transition – initially set to take place in August – Burundians and the international community are waiting to see if the new government will seize upon this unique moment in the country’s history. Can President Ndayishimiye and the new government reverse the policies pursued by President Nkurunziza that deepened societal divisions and resulted in years of political conflict?
Topic:: Elections, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

33. Ethiopia’s Challenging Path to the 2020 Ballots

Author:: Anwar A. Bashir
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:: Since Abiy become the new prime minister of Ethiopia, Ethiopian politics has taken a new turn. He has released political prisoners, promoted media freedom and increased inclusion of women into the political arena. He has also invited the opposition to the discussion table, and reduced tension in the 18-year feud between Ethiopia and Eritrea. As a result, some politically-oriented Ethiopians believe Abiy has taken exquisite and peerless actions. There are also several reprehensible issues, which have started under his tenure. Communal violence has peaked whilst agreements with opposition groups was met with skepticism. Moreover, the number of internally displaced people (IDPs) in Ethiopia has reached a zenith due to the ethnic violence, for which human rights organizations have heavily criticized Ethiopia’s leadership. Several political analysts note that Abiy’s transformations are only a veneer, because his agreement with oppositions groups are yet to be implemented, especially with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), the oldest opposition in the country. This skepticism from the opposition has resulted in a new coalition party aimed at undermining the incumbent government in the upcoming Ethiopian 2020 election. Ogaden Liberation Front (ONLF), the second oldest opposition has complained of mistreatment by the leadership of the Somali region. Outspoken opposition politician Lidetu Ayalew of the Ethiopian Democratic Party has asserted, “Ethiopia as a nation is not ready to hold general parliamentary elections.” On the other hand, Abiy disbanded the longest ruling party in the country, the EPRDF, an action that has resulted in a widening dichotomy within his inner-circle. Jawar, an Oromo media tycoon, has tremendous support from the youth, especially since the Oromo region has boycotted Abiy’s policies. With all these various issues and considerations, there is much anticipation as to how the upcoming elections will unfold.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Eritrea

34. The Efficacy of Governments of National Unity in Zimbabwe and Lesotho

Author:: Dudziro Nhengu and Stanley Murairwa
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Electoral disputes have long played a role in directing political conflicts towards the attainment of ephemeral peace in both Zimbabwe and Lesotho – two countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Zimbabwe’s Global Political Agreement (GPA) helped to end conflict in the country, further establishing a government of national unity (GNU) with institutional mechanisms and conditions that enabled transition to a more peaceful context. A decade later, Zimbabwe is still at a crossroads, facing almost the same political and economic hardships that it did in 2008, when the GPA was signed. The current political stand-off between the Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU–PF) and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is a manifestation of the deep-seated political problems in the country, and proof that the GNU did not enable lasting solutions to Zimbabwe’s politico-economic crisis.
Topic:: Nationalism, Governance, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Africa, Zimbabwe, and Lesotho

35. Tunisia’s Fragile Democracy: Decentralization, Institution-Building and the Development of Marginalized Regions – Policy Briefs from the Region and Europe

Author:: Dina Fakoussa and Laura Lale Kabis-Kechrid
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: Although Tunisia has made great strides over the past seven years, its democratization process remains fragile. Disillusionment with and distrust in the government, particularly high among the young, also manifest themselves in low voter turnout. Young voters were strikingly absent in the 2014 parliamentary elections, and in the first municipal elections in May 2018, only 33.7 percent of Tunisians cast their votes. To a great extent, this disillusionment stems from the various, persistent socio-economic problems which had led to the uprisings and the ouster of the former autocratic regime in 2011. Especially in Tunisia’s historically marginalized regions, these issues remain a key challenge.
Topic:: Government, Elections, Democracy, Fragile States, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, and Tunisia

36. The Impact of COVID-19 on Democratic Elections in Africa

Author:: Michael Asiedu
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:: Almost all African countries rolled out significant measure in response to Covid-19. From border closures through to the use of personal protective equipment (PPEs) to restricted gatherings and contact tracing, a combination of diverse public health safety strategies was employed. These same strategies nonetheless would make preparations toward holding smooth and timely elections cumbersome. Ghana’s electoral commissioner announced an indefinite postponement of its voter registration exercise, it is still in consultation with stakeholders on carrying out the exercise with only six months to its presidential and parliamentary elections if the timeline stays the same. Niger also suspended its voter registration exercise; Ethiopia postponed its elections entirely. Other countries that have had some forms of election postponement include Zimbabwe, Nigeria and Kenya.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Kenya, Africa, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Ghana

37. Citizen Commitment – How Fragile States in Sub-Saharan Africa can Thrive

Author:: Clement Mutambo
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:: Fragile states are nations whose institutions of governance are highly susceptible to corruption, deception, and bias. According to the Fund for Peace, the vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa countries qualify as moderately to severely fragile states. Why? Because African institutions are weak and dysfunctional, and leaders manipulate their systems with impunity. If the fragility fiasco is to be changed, African people need to realize that neither their leaders nor international observations can fix the issue; only the people hold the power to determine their future. Despite the tumultuous conditions in many nations in the Sub-Saharan continent, there is hope. The recent Malawian election demonstrated that despite weak local institutions and inadequate support from the international community, change can be made if citizens unite and demand accountability for corruption and abuses of power. When Malawians realized the outcome of their late 2019 presidential election was rigged, they took matters into their own hands. Even though six international observers, including the United Nations Development Program, Southern African Development Community, European Union, and African Union, argued that the elections were free and fair, overwhelming evidence of ballot tampering suggested otherwise.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Fragile States, and Courts
Political Geography:: Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

38. Recommendations for Electoral Reform in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:: Typhaine Roblot, Manuel Wally, Rushdi Nackerdien, Kimberly Riddle, and Adele Ravida
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:: The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) 2018-19 elections were followed by the country’s first peaceful and democratic transfer of executive power. However, the elections – particularly their results management – were widely criticized. While voters appear to have ultimately accepted the results, lingering uncertainty could depress future voter turnout and undermine the current government’s authority. This post-electoral period offers an unprecedented opportunity to initiate broad electoral reforms to shore up the credibility of future elections. A white paper from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) analyzes the DRC context and finds that the government or Parliament could initiate the reform process. IFES then highlights comparative examples of electoral reform from Kenya, Senegal, Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire and presents considerations and recommendations for the DRC. Given that truly inclusive, sustainable and holistic electoral reform could take years to complete, the process should begin now to ensure more credible, transparent elections in 2023 and beyond.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Transparency, Transition, and Rigged Elections
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

39. Four scenarios for electoral violence: Policy Brief the 2020 Ivorian Presidential and Parliamentary elections

Author:: Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Presidential and parliamentary elections in Cote d’Ivoire are scheduled for October 31, 2020. The past months have seen serious acts of violence during the campaign. As more violence is expected, the central question is where this violence is taking and will be taking place and which conditions are encouraging it. This policy brief explores the election violence literature and derives four scenarios to explaining and show which of Cote d'Ivoire's 31 regions will be affected for what reasons by electoral violence. Exploration of violence data highlights that presently, electoral violence is highest in competitive areas. This implies that the incumbent and opposition use violence in ‘swing’ areas and areas where they need to poach substantial number of votes from the opponent.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Violence, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

40. Burundi’s Institutional Landscape after the 2020 Elections

Author:: Stef Vandeginste
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Burundi’s forthcoming elections mark the next stage in the implementation of the Constitution of 7 June 2018. Four key institutional innovations, situated mostly at the level of the executive branch, will take effect after the elections. Contrary to the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement of August 2000 and the Constitution of 18 March 2005, the 2018 Constitution no longer requires the establishment of a coalition government. While re- introducing a prime minister, the new constitution also enhances presidential powers. Furthermore, the 2018 Constitution has an immediate and longer-term impact on the use of ethnic quotas
Topic:: Elections, Constitution, Leadership, Ethnicity, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

41. Going the Extra Mile for the 2020 Elections in the Central African Republic

Author:: Peter Knoope, Stephen Buchanan-Clarke, and Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: The upcoming 2020 presidential election in the Central African Republic (CAR) has the potential to derail the implementation of the 2019 Khartoum Peace Agreement and bring about a return to widespread conflict. This calls for immediate and collaborative action to be taken by those national, regional, and international actors working for peace in the country. This policy brief aims to outline some of the key risks posed by the upcoming elections and provide recommendations to mitigate their potential to negatively impact on ongoing peace and reconciliation efforts.
Topic:: Security, Elections, Peace, Voting, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa and Central African Republic

42. Easing Cameroon’s Ethno-political Tensions, On and Offline

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Two years after Cameroon’s contested presidential election, political rivalry has taken a worrying direction as the incumbent’s supporters trade ethnic slurs with backers of his main challenger. The government should undertake electoral reforms, bar discrimination and work with social media platforms to curtail hate speech.
Topic:: Reform, Elections, Social Media, Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Identity
Political Geography:: Africa and Cameroon

43. Campaigns and Electioneering: Reflecting on the 2015 General Elections in Nigeria

Author:: Emmanuel Osewe Akubor
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Historically, campaigns are recognized as a vital part of electioneering since it contains the ideas that the candidate wants to share with the voters, especially regarding policy issues and the administration’s focus. It aims to get those who agree with their ideas to support them when running for a political position. The message often consists of several talking points about policy issues. However, a study of Nigeria’s situation, with specific reference to the 2015 Campaigns and Electioneering, revealed that the main content of campaigns was hate speeches. Therefore, this paper seeks to bring out the main issues of campaigns in Nigeria’s electoral system and why it has often led to electoral violence over the years. The qualitative method is used for this particular research. Data obtained from primary and secondary sources were deployed to carry out the study with an analytical and narrative historical approach. It includes historical, descriptive, and analytical approaches based on gathered evidence. This research’s primary source is based on field investigations conducted in the Nigerian area and surrounding territories. Among other things, the data collection process includes semi-structured interviews with selected individuals. The research also uses historical documents from the national archives, relying on previous research conducted on society, administrative development, and documentary data taken from newspaper accounts, diaries, letters, and verbal reports. This research’s position is that campaigns over the years in Nigeria, unlike what is obtainable in some parts of the world where policy issues form the backbone of campaign message have basically on persons, character assassination, violence, and abusive (hate) speeches. The paper argues that this campaign strategy often leads to electoral violence before, during, and after elections. The paper, therefore, concludes that only issue-based campaigns can guarantee peaceful and credible elections in Nigeria.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Campaigning
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

44. The Private Sector and Atrocity Prevention: Lessons from Côte d’Ivoire’s 2010-11 Electoral Crisis and the Role of the Business Community in Preventing Violence in 2020

Author:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: Côte d’Ivoire's economic stability is critical to West Africa's development and inextricably tied to the global economy. Past periods of conflict, including the civil war from 2002-07 and the 2010-11 electoral crisis, resulted in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars lost throughout the country and region. Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential election is less than a year away, and though atrocity crimes are not currently taking place, early warning signs of violence are already visible in a country that has never experienced a non-violent transfer of power. These signs warrant immediate attention, not only from Côte d’Ivoire’s political leadership and the international community, but also from business leaders. While the Ivorian government holds the keys to stability and peace throughout the electoral process, members of the business community—both Ivorian companies and international companies with economic interests in Côte d’Ivoire—can be critical allies in preventing violence in 2020. Business leaders should signal to the political parties that sacrificing the economy and civilian lives for political gain will not be accepted.
Topic:: Elections, Business, Violence, Private Sector, Instability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

45. Nigeria's Elections Do Not a Democracy Make

Author:: John Campbell
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: Nigeria is the giant of Africa. Depending on the price of oil, it has sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economy, and UN agencies estimate that its population will reach 450 million by mid-century, displacing the United States as the third most populous country in the world. Nigeria is active diplomatically in international fora such as the UN and the World Trade Organization, and the scope of its diplomatic representation is comparable to that of the United States. Nigeria’s bilateral relations with the United States have been close and productive on African issues of mutual concern. With Nollywood—Africa’s largest film industry—and numerous artists and intellectuals of world stature, Nigeria has considerable soft power in Africa. Hence, the success or failure of its democracy influences the continent as a whole. For such reasons and more, Nigeria’s democratic trajectory and overall stability are in the national interest of the United States. A bargain between the Nigerian military and civilian elites resulted in the restoration of civilian governance in 1999 after a generation of military rule. With their resumption, elections have become important to the competing and cooperating elites (now including senior military officers) who run Nigeria. Elections reaffirm their government’s legitimacy in their own eyes, that of other Nigerians who vote and foreign governments. However, what Nigeria’s elections have in form, they lack in democratic substance. By and large, the nation’s elections are not about Nigerians making a choice among candidates. Instead, these elections are more often a contest between elite networks. Nigerian society is still largely organized by patron and client relationships, and voters cast their ballots as their patrons direct. Extreme poverty—which is on the rise in Nigeria—also provides a bevy of people willing to vote the way someone tells them in exchange for cash; truly independent voters are rare. Elites also present elections to Nigeria’s international partners as evidence that the country is becoming a modern democracy, opening for them the possibility of a personal role on the larger world stage. Hence, national elections have been held regularly every four years, in 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019. The logistical quality of Nigerian elections has been generally poor. The elections of 1999 were so bad that President Jimmy Carter, an election observer, left the country rather than be seen to endorse them. The worst ever were those of 2007, when I was the U.S. Ambassador, with chaos, violence and wholesale rigging. But those elections resulted in the country’s first genuinely civilian president since the end of military rule, Umaru Yar’Adua. (His predecessor, Olusegun Obasanjo, though the country’s first nominally civilian leader, had governed in the style of a military head of state.) The subsequent elections of 2011 were characterized by exceptionally high levels of violence. In their aftermath, domestic and international pressure resulted in the introduction of some reforms in election procedures.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:: Africa, Nigeria, and Sub-Saharan Africa

46. Zimbabwe's Elections and Political Change in Southern Africa

Author:: Michelle D. Gavin
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: One needn’t have a preference among the 23 candidates who contested for the presidency of Zimbabwe last summer to find the overall result of the elections deeply disappointing. What had been billed as a chance to turn the page on Zimbabwe’s international isolation, economic collapse and politics of fear instead exposed continued political violence, the unwillingness of the powers that be in the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) to create a genuinely level playing field for political competition and elites’ overall contempt for average citizens. But while all of this makes it tempting to write off hopes for meaningful change in Zimbabwe, it is possible that the country is only at the beginning of a long and slow transition—the same process of reimagining the underpinnings of the state that is underway in many of its southern African neighbors.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Violence, and Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Zimbabwe, and Southern Africa

47. he Democratic Republic of Congo: The Great Electoral Robbery (and how and why Kabila got away with it)

Author:: Kris Berwouts and Filip Reyntjens
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Although the election of Félix Tshisekedi as president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was hailed as ‘the first peaceful transition since independence’, the election was anything but a democratic exercise. Indeed, Martin Fayulu was the real winner, not Tshisekedi. Suspected electoral fraud at the legislative elections has returned a parliament in which Kabila’s Common Front for Congo coalition (Front commun pour le Congo – FCC) holds a large majority. This will allow Kabila to keep real power in most domains of government. By endorsing this outcome in the knowledge that it was fraudulently obtained, the West and Africa have robbed the Congolese people of their choice.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Rigged Elections, and State Abuse
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

48. Burundi on the Brink Again? Identifying Risks Before the 2020 elections

Author:: Nina Wilen
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: In less than a year Burundi will hold its first elections since the 2015 political crisis was triggered by the president’s bid for a third term. Almost five years after the start of the crisis, Burundi is still stuck in a political impasse with strong authoritarian undertones and with little hope of conducting free and fair elections. This policy brief identifies four developments which could turn the current situation into a high- intensity violent crisis: forced refugee return; repression of the opposition; implosion of the ruling party CNDD-FDD and the threat of an Ebola outbreak. Given the tense climate and the limited space available to foreign actors, it is suggested that external actors scale down expectations for democratic elections. Instead, focus should be on keeping options open to provide humanitarian assistance in the event of a large-scale outbreak of violence or Ebola, while maintaining political pressure for democratic space.
Topic:: Elections, Ebola, Refugees, Election watch, and Public Health
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

49. Good Governance and Accountability: An Assessment of the Media’s Role in Achieving Transparency in the 2019 General Elections in Nigeria

Author:: Aondover Eric Mcsughter
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Institution:: Brazilian Journal of African Studies
Abstract:: Paraphrasing the words of Mahatma Gandhi, one of the objects of the media is to understand the popular feeling and give expression into meaning, which arouse people to the desirable sentiments that will fearlessly expose popular defects. The foregoing statement by Gandhi explains the importance of media in upholding freedom and in expanding education, social reforms and change. Media can inform people, giving them a voice to be heard and heeded to. Democracy requires that people have the right to know the activities of the government, especially the decision of the government that affects their life, liberty and property. Information is important for people to make choices regarding their participation in the State, the market and civil society. Media also fearlessly exposes issues that make people more informed than uninformed. Sufficient information helps them decide rationally and take the right course of action beneficial to them. The media also helps people know what is happening around the globe. By publicizing information, it also makes public services more responsive to the people. Against the backdrop of the foregoing, this paper sets to assess the role of the media in achieving good governance and accountability especially in the 2019 general election. The provision of section 22 of the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria places an obligation on the press to uphold the responsibility and accountability of government to the people. Thus, democracy can hardly survive and achieve its yearnings in any society where there is no accountability, transparency and the inclusion of the majority of the people in governance and in determining the input into the process of development; all of which are guaranteed through a free and independent media (Auwal, 2018). Therefore, the responsibility of the media is in holding the government accountable to the people is fundamental to the overall success of democracy.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Media, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

50. Who are the Candidates in Tunisia’s 2019 Presidential Elections?

Author:: Souha Drissi
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: With the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi on 25 July, Tunisia’s presidential elections were moved up and will be held on 15 September 2019. By the end of the eight-day process of accepting nominations – from 2 to 9 August – the Independent High Authority for Elections (IHAE) had received 971 requests for nomination which include 75 independents and 11 female candidates. On 31 August, the IHAE released the final list of candidates for the presidential race, accepting 26 nominees, including two women, and rejecting 71 applications for failing to meet candidacy requirements. The IHAE is considered one of the achievements of the 2011 Revolution. It is a nine-member permanent body based in Tunis which enjoys administrative and financial independence. Its mission is to “ensure democratic, pluralistic, fair and transparent elections and referendums”2 and supervise and oversee all related processes. The election campaigns started on 2 September and will continue until 13 September, with 17 September as the deadline for the announcement of the preliminary election results and 21 October for the announcement of the final results. In case of no absolute majority vote, a second round will be held after two weeks.3
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Democracy, and State Building
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis

51. Who are the Candidates in Tunisia’s 2019 Presidential Elections?

Author:: Souha Drissi
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: With the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi on 25 July, Tunisia’s presidential elections were moved up and will be held on 15 September 2019. By the end of the eight-day process of accepting nominations – from 2 to 9 August – the Independent High Authority for Elections (IHAE) had received 971 requests for nomination which include 75 independents and 11 female candidates. On 31 August, the IHAE released the final list of candidates for the presidential race, accepting 26 nominees, including two women, and rejecting 71 applications for failing to meet candidacy requirements. The IHAE is considered one of the achievements of the 2011 Revolution. It is a nine-member permanent body based in Tunis which enjoys administrative and financial independence. Its mission is to “ensure democratic, pluralistic, fair and transparent elections and referendums”2 and supervise and oversee all related processes. The election campaigns started on 2 September and will continue until 13 September, with 17 September as the deadline for the announcement of the preliminary election results and 21 October for the announcement of the final results. In case of no absolute majority vote, a second round will be held after two weeks.3
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Democracy, and State Building
Political Geography:: Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis

52. Algeria’s Presidential Elections: Stopping a Democratic Transition?

Author:: Dris Nouri
Publication Date:: 11-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Since pluralism was introduced in Algeria in the February 1989 constitution, presidential elections have become a means of conferring legitimacy to the civilian façade of military authority. Historically, the army has held centre stage in the country’s configuration of power, holding power explicitly until 1989, then indirectly after facing popular anger in October 1988, which led the armed forces to relinquish their “revolutionary legitimacy” and replace it with elections-sanctioned legitimacy. The conditions of this political openness, however, and the slide into violence in 1991, allowed authorities the opportunity to disable the capacity of elections to bring forth a democratic alternative. Elections were thus rendered periodic events designed to provide the veneer of democratic legitimacy to a supposedly civilian elected president – but who was always chosen in advance by the authorities under a rigged bureaucratic system. While this model didn’t allow Liamine Zéroual to continue his term (1995-1999), Abdelaziz Bouteflika knew how to manipulate the system to the greatest extent, allowing him to stay in power for four full terms, regardless of his deteriorating health conditions, and to even try to devise loopholes for extending to a fifth term.1 The regime did not expect to pay a high cost for running this model. Nor did it understand that the resources needed to maintain the effectiveness of this system in the collective imaginary of the Algerian people were in fact dwindling, be they material resources (revenues from oil and gas used for generous social programmes and clientele networks) or symbolic (revolutionary legitimacy, Bouteflika’s charisma). As such, the planned presidential election of 18 April 2019 – designed to renew the existing contract between the regime, its cronies, and its clientele networks - instead became the catalyst for a peaceful revolutionary movement to emerge. It was the moment when millions of Algerians took to the streets demanding radical change to the state’s mode of operating, the production process, and the distribution of power in society. As a result of the peaceful popular uprising, Algeria’s top brass was forced to intervene to remove the president who was running again for office, and the elections were cancelled in a bid to contain the unprecedented and widespread anger. However, the authorities soon realized that Algerians were demanding something deeper: the cancellation of the de facto delegated power that the military had enjoyed since independence, to be replaced with a true electoral process. In the wake of this realization, the authorities have been trying to neutralize the effectiveness of the popular uprising, going to great lengths to renew the civilian façade.
Topic:: United Nations, Social Movement, Elections, Protests, Repression, and Military Government
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, North Africa, and Algeris

53. Shouting for a New Algeria: Slogans as Foundations of a Political Project?

Author:: Nassim Balla
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: On 22 February 2019, tens of thousands of Algerians took the streets to oppose President Bouteflika running for a fifth term. This unprecedented movement in Algeria, the Hirak, is in many respects particular: it is pacifist, rooted in popular neighbourhoods, and dominated by a young generation of activists. After years of the regime’s disdain (hougra) of the marginalized, of youth, and of political opponents, a spontaneous and peaceful glimmer of hope suddenly emerged. During these protests, Algerian youth have shown incredible creativity in expressing their political demands despite having always been excluded from the formal political sphere and having themselves despised and rejected politics writ large. They have invented complex metaphorical slogans and songs to express their indignation and anger. These chants, however, are not entirely new: they have always existed in Algerian stadiums, where they were traditionally composed by young football fans, the “ultras,” and inspired from Algerian folklore and chaabi (popular) music.1 In the last decade, though, these songs saw an important revival and began encompassing strong political messages deeply anchored in an assessment of the current context. This paper seeks to analyze, deconstruct, and interpret three of these slogans and songs that were born among the ultras in Algerian stadiums and later adopted by all protesters as an alternative to classical political projects. These slogans reflect a long-lasting dissatisfaction with the status quo and are often deeply rooted in popular culture and anthems of the marginalized and forgotten in Algeria.
Topic:: Culture, Elections, Protests, and Youth Movement
Political Geography:: Africa, Algeria, North Africa, and Algeris

54. Challenges of Project Implementation in Local Government: The Case of Francistown City Council and Kweneng District Council Botswana Institute

Author:: Thabile A. Samboma
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:: Botswana is faced with many challenges of project implementation. Since independence detailed projects and programmes were initiated, with limited and often less developed state capacity to implement them. This study focuses on challenges of project implementation in Botswana’s tier of local government. A qualitative case research method approach was employed to undertake the study. Telephonic interviews were conducted with politicians and employees from Francistown City Council (FCC) and Kweneng District Council (KDC) and data was analysed using thematic analysis. The paper outlines project implementation challenges in Local Authorities (LA). For instance, lack of capacity, lack of commitment by the District Development Committee (DDC), poor stakeholder engagement and lack of financial autonomy by councils. Some of the identified implementation challenges are not peculiar to the two LAs but cuts across local authorities in Botswana. However, low human capacity in local authorities was cited as a major problem in project implementation.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Domestic Politics, Local, and State Funding
Political Geography:: Africa and Botswana

55. Lessons from South Africa’s 2019 Elections

Author:: Rhoda Osei-Afful
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: The ANC's 50-50 policy ensured that 50% of its candidate list for Natonal Assembly seats were women.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Ghana

56. Malawi: The Road to the 2019 Tripartite Elections. Reflections on Corruption, Land and Multiparty Politics

Author:: Stephanie Regalia
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: On May 21st 2019, Malawi will hold its tripartite elections, where voters will vote for the President, Members of Parliament and local Councillors. 2019 will also mark the 25 years of multiparty politics in Malawi since the one-party regime presided by Hastings Kamuzu Banda came to an end in 1994. The transition to multiparty democracy has been encouraging with the number of large political parties steadily growing and power peacefully changing hands between the four presidents, the country has known since 1994. In this context, the race to the 2019 elections is particularly competitive. The most recent polls place voter intention for the outgoing president Peter Mutharika and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) at a near tie with the lead opposition candidate Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP). The MCP used to be the only authorized political party under Hastings Kamuzu Banda’s rule. Its return to the forefront of voter intentions signals important changes in the landscape of political actors in Malawi. This paper explores some of the reasons behind this changing political landscape. It looks at the DPP’s recent loss of support due to discontent with rampant corruption and a controversial land reform passed in 2016. It also examines the landscape of challengers, including the current Vice President Saulos Chilima, following his departure from DPP ranks to form a new political movement, the United Transformation Movement (UTM). Given the diversity of large political parties in contention, which also includes Atupele Muluzi’s United Democratic Front (UDF) and Joyce Banda’s People’s Party (PP), the possibility of securing victory in the 2019 presidential election may rest on the ability of political parties to form strategic electoral alliances. This may require moving past political parties formed solely around the personality and identity of their leaders to a more issue-based political debate.
Topic:: Corruption, Politics, Elections, Land, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Africa and Malawi

57. Changes in South Africa’s Foreign Policy

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: May’s parliamentary elections in South Africa, a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), will change the directions of its foreign policy. The victory by the African National Congress (ANC) was made possible by the popularity of the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, who will emphasize the international dimension of policy. In his new term, he will focus on regaining the trust of foreign investors, strengthening the country’s pro-Western course, supporting multilateralism, and reform of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, International Law, Politics, Elections, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

58. Resisting State Capture in South Africa

Author:: Rod Alence and Anne Pitcher
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Democracy
Institution:: National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:: This article assesses the state of democracy in South Africa, twenty-five years after Nelson Mandela and the African National Congress (ANC) came to power. The ANC won its sixth straight election in 2019, led by presidential candidate Cyril Ramaphosa. Yet the party faced a strengthened challenge from the populist left, and the 2019 contest saw the smallest ANC majority and the lowest turnout of any general election since the end of apartheid. This article argues that the most fundamental test for South Africa’s democracy has been dislodging the corrupt networks of “state capture” entrenched under former president Jacob Zuma. Civil society, opposition parties, accountability agencies, and the ANC itself succeeded in removing Zuma before the end of his term, but the task of rebuilding public trust remains.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, and Populism
Political Geography:: Africa, South Africa, and Southern Africa

59. Who Debates, Who Wins? At-Scale Experimental Evidence on Debate Participation in a Liberian Election

Author:: Jeremy Bowles and Horacio Larreguy
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: We examine how candidate selection into the supply of policy information determines its electoral effects. In a nationwide debate initiative designed to solicit and rebroadcast policy promises from Liberian legislative candidates, we randomized the encouragement of debate participation across districts. The intervention substantially increased the debate participation of leading candidates but led to uneven electoral returns for these candidates, with incumbents benefiting at the expense of challengers. These results are driven by differences in compliance: complying incumbents, but not challengers, positively selected into debate participation based on the congruence of their policy priorities with those of their constituents.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Accountability, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Africa and Liberia

60. Running Out of Options in Burundi

Author:: International Crisis Group
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Talks about ending Burundi’s crisis – sparked by the president’s decision to seek a third term – have fizzled out. With elections nearing in 2020, tensions could flare. Strong regional pressure is needed to begin opening up the country’s political space before the balloting. What’s new? After almost three years, the Inter-Burundi Dialogue has ended in failure. Next steps are unclear as regional leaders reject handing over mediation to other institutions while not committing wholeheartedly themselves to resolving the crisis. Elections due in 2020 carry a real risk of violence unless political tensions ease. Why did it happen? The East African Community (EAC) took the lead on mediation in Burundi though it lacks the requisite experience, expertise or resources. Absence of political will and divisions among member states, coupled with the Burundian government’s intransigence, made successful dialogue among the parties impossible. Why does it matter? Without urgent intervention, the 2020 elections will take place in a climate of fear and intimidation. This would increase risks of electoral violence and people joining armed opposition groups and ensure that Burundi continues its descent into authoritarianism, raising prospects of another major crisis with regional repercussions. What should be done? Regional leaders should use their influence, including threats of targeted sanctions, to persuade the government to allow exiled opponents to return and campaign without fear of reprisal. The EAC, African Union and UN should coordinate to prevent Bujumbura from forum-shopping and not allow Burundi to slip from the international agenda.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Africa and Burundi

61. Unpacking Nigerias Peace Efforts During the Second Cycle of the Liberian Conflict

Author:: Según Oshewolo
Publication Date:: 01-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Although peace operations have been a major instrument of Nigeria’s foreign policy continentally and globally, this study analyzed the country’s peace campaigns in Liberia under president Olusegun Obasanjo. The paper observed inter alia that Obasanjo’s peace efforts in Liberia were influenced by his recognition of Nigeria as a leading actor in the stabilization efforts in the region. While there were some encumbrances, Nigeria’s peace campaigns in Liberia were successful as revealed by the data sources. Nigeria’s major accomplishments included the eventual signing of a comprehensive peace agreement in 2003 that brought an end to the carnage in the country, offer of asylum to Taylor, and the 2005 post-conflict elections. These accomplishments could be attributed to President Obasanjo’s gravitas and Nigeria’s well-oiled diplomatic machinery in the West African sub-region. To arrive at this conclusion, the paper adopted the secondary data sources and interview technique for the purpose of data collection, and descriptive thematic analysis.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Elections, Peace, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

62. Exploring the Mahama-NDC’s Defeat in the 2016 Election: Insights from Pre-election Surveys

Author:: Gilfred Asiamah, Kojo Asante, and E. Gyimah-Boadi
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Ghana Center for Democratic Development
Abstract:: Ghana’s 2016 presidential elections was closely contested between Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo (candidate for the opposition New Patriotic Party) and the incumbent President John Dramani Mahama (presidential candidate for the National Democratic Congress). Akufo-Addo emerged as the winner of the election with 5,755,758 votes while his main competitor, Mahama, received 4,771,188 votes, translating into almost a million (984,570) vote difference. Similarly, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) won a decisive majority of the parliamentary seats (169 out of the 275). The National Democratic Congress (NDC’s) 106 seats represented a loss of 42 parliamentary seats it previously held. None of the minor political parties secured a parliamentary seat in the elections. The NDC’s electoral defeat surprised many party members and observers. Among other things, it marked the first time in the Fourth Republic that an incumbent government had lost the elections in the first round, and with such a huge margin. The incumbent president was rendered incapable of taking advantage of the constitutionally sanctioned opportunity to serve two terms. Moreover, the party had mounted a powerful election campaign with the advantage of incumbency which saw a lot of commissioning of projects close to the election period. At the same time, the opposition NPP had been struggling to maintain a united front, which was only resolved by changes to two key leadership positions but with worries of its electoral consequences. This is the backdrop against which an influential member of the NDC described the outcome of the elections as “very difficult and mysterious to understand.” The electoral defeat provoked an acrimonious debate within the party over what and who to blame for this inauspicious development.
Topic:: Elections, Political Parties, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

63. Political Fatalism and Youth Apathy in South Africa

Author:: Darlington Tshuma and Gilbert Tinashe Zvaita
Publication Date:: 12-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: On 8 May 2019, South Africans went to the polls to elect a government of their choice. This election was South Africa’s sixth since the country held its first democratic election in 1994. Twenty-five years later, questions are being asked about whether the ruling party has delivered on its electoral promises since its victory in the April 1994 election. These and other questions have arisen due to the country’s socio-economic challenges such as increasing youth unemployment, massive public-private sector corruption and deep-seated inequality. These challenges have resulted in renewed calls for political alternatives. This search for political alternatives is evidenced by a significant increase in the number of new political parties that have formed since 1994 – over 40 political parties contested the May 2019 election in various parts of the country. In spite of the growth in the number of political parties, the question that has not generated sufficient debate in either political and policy circles is the role of the youth in South Africa’s democracy, and in electoral processes in particular. This article reports on the findings of a socio-anthropological research study on society, politics and electoral processes in South Africa, conducted as part of an international research project titled Re-examining Elections after African Experiences.1 The article provides an analysis on what the electoral process and voting specifically means to South African youth.
Topic:: Civil Society, Elections, Democracy, and Anthropology
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

64. Appraising Intergroup Contact in Zambia’s Electoral Politics

Author:: Kabale Ignatius Mukunto
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: While senior leaders on both sides of Zambia’s political divide may communicate civilly when faced with differences, the majority of their rank and file members seldom do so. For the latter, the handling of political conflicts is synonymous with violence. The socialisation of the current cohort of political party stalwarts is devoid of peace-oriented mechanisms of dealing with political dissent. Electoral politics have continued to be characterised by skirmishes, discontent and violence, 54 years after the country’s political independence. Political players are no strangers to polarisation, and differences in ideologies or ascension to leadership positions have culminated in splinter parties. What is worrisome is the propensity for violent engagements when managing political disagreements, especially at the lower strata of the Zambian polity. There is very little effort invested in cultivating an environment that facilitates collegial contact among political party affiliates. Such an environment of contact may also promote and support mutual understanding, tolerance and a sense of coexistence. Contact and learning about other parties (outgroups) reduce preconceptions and negative assumptions that drive hostilities, antagonisms and violence within the polity. Elite interparty interactions, even if on a slighter scale, also ought to permeate all political party structures horizontally. This article therefore appraises intergroup contact in light of Zambia’s electoral politics and the emergent violence.
Topic:: Elections, Ethnicity, Peace, and Political Culture
Political Geography:: Africa and Zambia

65. Election in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Author:: Naila Salihu
Publication Date:: 09-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been home to the one of the oldest peacekeeping missions in the world – the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) – due to many periods of instability. Since independence in 1960, the country has been embroiled in conflict. Joseph Kabila succeeded his late father, Laurent Kabila, as president, following the latter’s assassination in 2001. He ruled the country for almost 17 years, and controversially won two elections, in 2006 and 2011. His tenure expired in November 2016, necessitating presidential and legislative elections. However, in September 2016, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced the postponement of elections, citing reasons of violence in parts of the country, as well as logistical and financial constraints. CENI also petitioned the Constitutional Court and obtained authorisation to postpone elections to compile a fresh voter register. These developments were met with widespread anger and protests over what some saw as Kabila’s refusal to relinquish power at the end of his second constitutionally mandated term. In the face of a legitimacy crisis and mounting domestic and external pressures from western powers, the African Union (AU), the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR), combined presidential, legislative and provincial elections were held on 30 December 2018. The initial announcement to the elections was met with some reservations. Nonetheless, the elections took place. Contrary to widely held views of machinations by the incumbent government to cling to power, long-time opposition leader, Félix Tshisekedi, emerged as the new president of the DRC, having secured over 7 million votes, representing 38.57% of the total votes cast. The runner-up – another opposition candidate, Martin Fayulu, leader of the Lamuka coalition – garnered about 6.3 million votes (34.38%). The ruling coalition’s candidate, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, came in third with over 4.3 million votes, representing 23.84% of votes cast.1 The voter turnout was 47.6%. However, Fayulu, who led the pre-election polls, filed a fraud complaint with the country’s highest court, calling for a recount of the official results. The court upheld the results. The DRC’s Catholic Church also intimated that the results gathered by its 40 000-strong monitoring team pointed to a different outcome than announced by the electoral commission.2 The disputed elections have larger consequences for the post-Kabila government. This article discusses the issues surrounding the elections and implications for stability in the post-election environment. The first section discusses the contentious issues that characterised the pre-election phase. This is followed by an analysis of developments in the post-election environment and the overall implications for stability.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Political stability, and State Building
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

66. Constructive National Dialogue in Zimbabwe

Author:: Edknowledge Mandikwaza
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Beyond offensive international diplomatic actions, court applications and protests, a national dialogue appears the best alternative to resolve Zimbabwe’s swelling socio-economic and political afflictions. The country is at a crossroads as its political and economic crises deepen. To salvage it from complete collapse, President Emmerson Mnangagwa, on 22 January 2019, called on political parties, churches and civic society leaders to participate in a national dialogue. Only political parties, however, were invited to the inaugural dialogue, which commenced on 7 February 2019. Churches, on the other hand, have mooted their own national dialogue process. The dominant purpose of both dialogue initiatives, however, remains vague to ordinary citizens and to diverse stakeholders, yet the principle of inclusivity should underpin such developments. This article therefore provides insights on what constitutes a national dialogue, why it is necessary, the potential for success, challenges, and possible steps towards an inclusive process.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nationalism, Elections, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Zimbabwe

67. National Election Response Groups as infrastructures for Peace

Author:: Reuben J.B. Lewis
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: It is now commonplace that every election in any country across Africa is a defining moment for statebuilding or a potential source of conflict – and for countries coming out of civil war, the stakes are even higher. Therefore, systems and structures must be operationalised as a catalyst to prevent or avert political violence in times of elections. In West Africa, National Elections Response Groups (NERGs) are being developed as response structures to mitigate election-related conflict, and their operationalisation is proving to be successful in a number of countries that have held elections – including, most recently, in Sierra Leone. NERGs are designed as infrastructures for peace, and serve as platforms for peaceful dialogue and shuttle diplomacy with political parties during national elections. NERGs also respond to incidences of harassment, intimidation and violence; work towards keeping communities calm and organised; and engage with all political groups to keep the peace. This article discusses the development and operationalisation of NERGs as an infrastructure for peace during recent elections in some West African countries.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Elections, Democracy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

68. Pervasive Intra-Party Conflicts in a Democratising Nigeria

Author:: Adeniyi S. Basiru
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Intra-party conflicts of all shapes and complexions have been part and parcel of Nigeria’s democratic journey. However, in recent times, they have become much more pervasive and even assumed crisis dimensions, with negative implications for democratic stability and consolidation. Drawing from the literature and interpreting the evidence, this article examines the terrain, implications and drivers of intra-party conflicts in a democratising Nigeria with a view to recommending options for resolution. It proceeds from the premise that pervasive intra-party conflicts, which have now assumed crisis dimensions, are not given, but have been nurtured by certain structural factors which have shaped the contours of politics in Nigeria. Specifically, it argues that the crises are closely connected with the neo-patrimonial character of the Nigerian petro state, the nature of politics being played by the political actors, praetorian hangover, and the paucity of democrats who genuinely have democratic temperaments to play the game of democratic politics according to established rules. It calls for, among others, the reform and strengthening of the internal conflict management capacities of political parties in Nigeria.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Conflict, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

69. Political Inclusion, Disability and the Sierra Leone 2018 General Elections: Some Policy Insights

Author:: Alex Sivalie Mbayo
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: For several decades, since the end of civil wars in 2002, people with disabili- ties (PWDs) in Sierra Leone have faced severe constraints in exercising their rights to participate in democratic processes due to the absence of or poor implementation of enabling laws, mechanisms, and guidelines that promote and facilitate their equal participation in elections. This policy brief is based on findings from a study of the level of participa- tion of PWDs in Sierra Leone’s 2018 general elections. It concluded, among other things, that the level of PWD participation was higher compared with previous elections because of more effective awareness-raising and sensiti- zation activities targeting PWDs concerning the election process. This was reflected in PWDs’ familiarity with registration and voting processes, and the high turnout of about 72 percent in both the registration and voting pro- cesses. Additionally, PWDs’ engagement with political parties with respect to PWD-related issues in their manifestoes clearly validates this point. The high turnout of PWDs was highlighted in my interviews of National Electoral Commission (NEC) officials in all four study locations: Bo, Freetown, Ken- ema, and Makeni.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Disability, and Participation
Political Geography:: Africa and Sierra Leone

70. Africans want Open Elections – Especially if they Bring Change

Author:: Michael Bratton and Sadhiska Bhoojedhur
Publication Date:: 06-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Observers now commonly assert that multiparty elections are institutionalized as a standard feature of African politics (Posner & Young, 2007; Bratton, 2013; Cheeseman, 2018; Bleck & van de Walle, 2019). By this they mean that competitive electoral contests are the most commonplace procedure for choosing and changing political leaders across the continent. As a result of a wave of regime transitions in the 1990s, the vast majority of African countries abandoned one-party systems and military rule in favour of democratic constitutions that guarantee – at least on paper – civil and political rights, civilian control of the military, and legislative and judicial oversight of the executive branch of government. Almost all countries have introduced a regular cycle of elections (usually every five years), and many have placed constitutional limits on the number of terms that African presidents can serve (usually two). Today, encouraged by the African Union’s African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, all political leaders feel compelled to pay at least token respect to a new set of continent-wide electoral standards. In short, elections are now embedded in the formal rules that govern politics on the continent. But the institutionalization of elections requires more than an international proclamation, an aspirational constitution, and a tightly drafted framework of statutes and regulations. It also requires political actors at all levels of the political system to grant value to open elections as the preferred method for selecting leaders and holding them accountable. In other words, politicians and citizens alike must make sincere commitments to hold elections dear and to offer vigorous protection if electoral procedures are ever threatened. Yet there is already evidence that some African presidents are all too ready to abandon presidential term limits (Dulani, 2011) – a reversal, for example, that Togo’s Parliament ratified in May 2019. And political leaders are too often tempted to manipulate election processes and outcomes in order to retain power (Cheeseman & Klaas, 2018) – as Joseph Kabila demonstrated in the December 2018 general election in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).1 Under these circumstances, much of the burden for protecting open and competitive elections falls to the ordinary citizens of Africa. The political commitments of the man and woman in the street represent the last line of defense should leaders take it upon themselves to violate widely accepted electoral norms. Accordingly, several key questions arise: Do Africans actually support elections? Do they regard African elections as free and fair? Do high-quality contests boost the value that citizens attach to elections? This Pan-Africa Profile offers affirmative answers to all these questions. Drawing from recent Afrobarometer survey data covering more than 30 countries across Africa’s main geographical regions, we find that Africans want open elections and, for the most part, think they are getting them. Importantly, popular support for elections is driven by the perceived freedom and fairness of the balloting process. Digging deeper, we find that the quality of elections – and thus popular support – is seen to hinge on whether elections bring about leadership alternation, which we define as a change not only of the top ruler but also of the ruling party. This “change effect” suggests that the political preferences of the general public are just as essential as formal political rules – if not more so – to the health of democracy in Africa.
Topic:: Elections, Democracy, Leadership, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Africa

71. Democracy in Africa: Demand, Supply, and the ‘Dissatisfied Democrat’

Author:: Robert Mattes
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: The increasing threat to democracy from populist movements and authoritarian leaders occupies a prominent place in current political debate. Yet political scientists who study this question reach contrasting conclusions, often because they use different measures and standards of democracy. Some say the world is in a democratic recession, with countries experiencing recent declines in the quality of democracy outnumbering those where it has improved (Diamond, 2015; Lührmann, Mechkova, & Wilson, 2017; Economist, 2018; Freedom House, 2018). Others see no such decline (Levitsky, 2015) or trendless variation (Jiménez, 2017; Skaaning & Jiménez, 2017). In Africa, Freedom House has tracked a significant retreat in political rights, civil liberties, and the overall quality of democracy. The biggest shifts have occurred among countries previously rated as “partly free,” many of which have retreated to “not free” status. Analysts have observed that this is often the result of hybrid regimes using counter-terrorism legislation to shrink democratic spaces (Temin, 2017) or of governments responding to increased electoral competition by restricting opposition parties and critical civil society organizations (Cheeseman, 2019). On the other hand, the V-Dem Institute finds more positive than negative change in Africa (Lührmann et al., 2018). African public opinion seems to embody this sense of divergence. While Yasha Mounk (2018) has claimed to find a systematic decline in citizens’ attachment to democracy across most of the established democracies in North America and Western Europe, Africans’ responses to questions posed by Afrobarometer over the past decade present a more varied and complex picture. At the most general level, the picture seems relatively clear and simple: The typical African is strongly committed to democracy and opposed to authoritarian rule, and has remained so for more than a decade. However, this image of solid democratic commitment changes radically if we narrow our focus to only those people who consistently express pro-democratic preferences across several different survey questions – those whom Afrobarometer describes as “demanding democracy” (Bratton, Mattes, & Gyimah-Boadi, 2005). Under these more demanding criteria, fewer than half of all Africans qualify as committed democrats. And levels of commitment vary sharply depending on a person’s demographic category and level of political engagement. The picture becomes even more complex when we look at specific countries or take a longer-term view. In some countries, publics are strongly committed to democracy, while in others people are largely indifferent. Similarly, some societies are developing more favourable views of democracy over time, while others are moving in the opposite direction. These trends in individual countries may matter even more than trends on the continent as a whole. The same kind of complexity emerges when we examine people’s evaluations of democracy. A slight majority of the Africans we interviewed say their country is a democracy, and somewhat fewer people are satisfied with the way democracy works – two indicators that Afrobarometer combines to measure the perceived “supply of democracy.” Overall, Africans say they get less democracy than they want. But in some countries, the perceived supply of democracy is greater than demand. And while this supply is increasing in some countries, it is declining in others. What does this mix of results mean for the survival of Africa’s multiparty regimes and the deepening of democracy? Of course, a great deal will depend on factors other than what citizens think, such as the degree to which democratic values are embraced by a country’s leaders and elites, as well as the extent to which countervailing institutions (legislature, courts) constrain the executive. But we argue that popular demands also have the power to drive countries toward democracy, and that this is most likely under certain conditions of high, but unmet, popular demand. In particular, this report concludes by highlighting the specific importance of citizens who are not only deeply committed to democracy but who also adopt a critical perspective toward their country’s current leaders and institutions – in other words, those citizens who demand democracy but do not think they are getting it. We describe these citizens as “dissatisfied democrats.” To the extent that citizens’ commitment to democracy matters for the survival and quality of democracy, evidence suggests that it is these dissatisfied democrats who matter most. While fewer than one in six Africans qualify as dissatisfied democrats in our most recent round of surveys, they make up much larger proportions in some countries in which electoral processes are deeply flawed and opposition forces are harassed, suggesting a continuing struggle between the forces of democracy and autocracy. However, dissatisfied democrats are in especially short supply in other places where the space for opposition has recently narrowed, offering little evidence that further restrictions will meet popular resistance.
Topic:: Governance, Public Opinion, Elections, Democracy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Africa

72. How Can We Minimize the Disruption of Political Transition in Developing Countries?

Author:: Reehana Raza, Karuti Kanyinga, and Akanshaka Ray
Publication Date:: 08-2019
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Urban Institute
Abstract:: On August 8, 2017, Kenya held its first elections since creating 47 new county governments in 2013 under a constitution promulgated in 2010. The elections were intensely contested both at the national and local level. Disputes over presidential results, amid allegations of fraud, saw Kenya’s new apex court, the Supreme Court, annul the August 8 presidential election. The court ordered a fresh presidential poll, which was held on October 26, 2017. Meanwhile, more than 20 local governorship results were legally contested, with multiple cases being taken all the way to the Supreme Court. These elections and the violence that followed the disputed presidential election created long periods of uncertainty across Kenya’s national and local government. In Wajir county, the election result for governor was contested for almost 20 months, until the Supreme Court ruled last February that the election was valid. Political transition generally creates uncertainty for bureaucrats, but prolonged transition periods exacerbate uncertainty and paralyze government functions. An annual survey and a technical report by partners implementing a project funded by the US Agency for International Development and the UK Department for International Development, Agile Harmonized Assistance for Devolved Institutions (AHADI), assesses how 22 Kenyan counties are improving their capacity to efficiently provide services to citizens. The most recent 2018 assessment shows how the 2017 elections undermined counties’ ability to sustain and maintain capacity-building initiatives.
Topic:: Development, Government, Elections, and Transition
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

73. The Game Has Changed: Rethinking the U.S. Role in Supporting Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Judd Devermont
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: It is election season again in sub-Saharan Africa. Roughly every five years, the region faces a tidal wave of elections. In previous cycles, starting in the mid-1990s, the outcome was generally predictable. The ruling party leveraged its considerable advantages—including access to state resources—to secure another term. If the incumbent party rigged the poll, international monitors easily spotted the fraud and strenuously objected, even if to little effect. For the past two decades, five out of every six elections have produced the same result. This next batch of some two dozen elections will be different. A combination of demographic, technological, and geostrategic developments is disrupting the region’s electoral landscape. African leaders, opposition, and publics are adapting and writing a new playbook in the process. From street protests and parallel vote counts to election hacking and internet shutdowns, sub-Saharan African politics are becoming more competitive and more unpredictable. The case for democracy and improving the quality of elections is not simply a moral or altruistic one. U.S. national security objectives, including promoting prosperity and stability, are more achievable in democratic systems. Autocratic regimes, in contrast, worsen corruption, undercut sound economic management, and fail to produce long- term growth. Indeed, recent research indicates that Africa’s democracies grow at a faster rate than its autocracies, and this is more pronounced among countries that have been democracies for longer.1 Moreover, historically, democracies rarely have gone to war with one another. If the United States wants to advance its broad objectives in the region, it will need to reconceptualize its investments, partnerships, and interventions regarding elections.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Elections, Democracy, and Election Interference
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

74. Election Uncertainty: Preventing Atrocity Crimes in Côte d'Ivoire

Author:: Arsène Brice Bado and Mollie Zapata
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: As Côte d'Ivoire's 2020 presidential elections near, he country is at a crossroads: It can continue an era of relative peace or revert to the type of ethnic-delineated violence that has marred its past. Every political transition in the country's history has resulted in violence against civilians. Most recently, the crisis that erupted as political parties disputed presidential election results in 2010-11 led to systematic civilian targeting by both sides---that of current President Alassane Ouattara and former President Laurent Gbagbo---including the alleged commission of atrocity crimes by Gbagbo and his followers. Although atrocity crimes---large-scale, systematic violence against civilian populations---are not yet taking place in Côte d'Ivoire, early warning signs are apparent. Immediate attention and early action by the Ivorian government and international partners are required to mitigate risks, prevent violence, and help save lives. To this end, at the end of this report we offer detailed recommendations to the government of Côte d'Ivoire, political party leaders, civil society, foreign governments and international organizations, and the media. Our analysis suggests that in the period before, during, and after the election, clashes between the main political parties may lead to violence and mass atrocity crimes. In past high-stakes elections, members of political parties have demonstrated the willingness to use violence. Risk is heightened during this period in part because of the zero-sum nature of Ivorian politics; politicians and their supporters perceive the 2020 elections to be "winner-take-all" for political and economic control of the country. In the past, this attitude has led political leaders to manipulate ethnic identity and economic grievances, dividing communities and inciting violence to solidify allegiances and generate political support. Today there is a risk of the resurgence of such exclusionary ideology.
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Violence, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS