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1. Egypt: The Price of Inaction on Tax Reform

Author:
Omar Ghannam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Like public finances elsewhere, the public finances of the Egyptian state suffer from a semi-permanent deficit. Although a limited deficit in state budgets is acceptable for most prevailing economic theories, the persistent and worsening deficit in public budgets leads to severe phases during which the economy suffers. During periods of economic prosperity, soft loans are easily accessible, which encourages states to rely on borrowing as a secondary source of financing for extended periods until it becomes a permanent source of financing. The financial market eventually puts an end to every period of easy borrowing, forcing the government to face the reality it has tried to avoid. Under such circumstances, governments have three tools at their disposal: borrowing at the highest interest rate, austerity and disabling services and social protection programs, and raising taxes and customs duties. Borrowing at the highest interest rate is every government's first choice because it does not require a reformulation of the social, economic, and political contract between the state and its citizens. But the price of such a policy is a worsened deficit. Borrowing, before or after a crisis, is not a solution but merely a postponement of the crisis, in the hope that the market recovers. When it is no longer possible to borrow amid the worsening economic conditions of a crisis, the government resorts to other tools with varying degrees of risk. Austerity is a recipe for widespread social outcry and has catastrophic effects on the poor and middle classes as well as the overall economy due to decreased purchasing power. To overcome the crisis with the least social tension, the state can also resort to taxation to generate possible revenues whether from the economy as a whole or the sectors and classes with concentrated surpluses of value. The more severe the crisis, the more the government is forced to use additional tools and impose strict measures. Debts are nothing but deferred taxes, and taxes remain key in every economic crisis. When a global economic crisis looms, questions abound. Could the crisis be approached with fewer social and economic burdens and with more room for maneuver? In this context, this paper will discuss the tax policies adopted in the past few years in Egypt and how they could have been more effective. The primary role of taxes is to meet the government's financial needs to implement its role under the social contract, whether formal or informal. Therefore, taxes are a convenient introduction to understanding the political economy of any state. Tax policies are an essential tool for achieving macroeconomic goals, and they directly reflect the political and socioeconomic considerations driving a country’s economy. This paper will address the main role of taxes in financing the requirements of the social contract from the perspective of the adequacy and effectiveness of tax collection.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Reform, Finance, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

2. Why Morocco’s Youth Employment Policies Continue to Fail

Author:
Ismail Ait Bassou
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Although Morocco has launched several programs designed to provide job opportunities for young people, youth unemployment rates remain high. This paper argues these programs have proven ineffective and are compounded by an unsustainable business environment, and presents some recommendations to ensure the planned reforms in the youth employment sector deliver on what they promise.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Africa and Morocco

3. The Implications of Financial Development for Economic Growth in CEMAC

Author:
Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In recent years, the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) has experienced sluggish economic growth. This has fallen from 4.86% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2021 (World Bank, 2021), a drop of 4.82 percentage points in a decade. In addition to the high vulnerability of economies to exogenous shocks, several economists such as Asteriou & Spanos (2019) attribute the slowdown in growth to the underdevelopment of the financial sector. In CEMAC, the access of populations to mobile money or commercial bank deposit services has undoubtedly become insufficient to keep economies on a sustainable and inclusive growth path. This article reviews the evolution of financial development indicators in the CEMAC zone since 2013, and its impact on the performance of states in terms of economic growth. We use secondary data collected from the World Bank and the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), between 2013 and 2021. The analysis provides public authorities in CEMAC with arguments to promote financial development in the sub-region to boost economic growth, and better take advantage of the opportunities of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The paper is structured in two sections. Section 1 presents the evolution of financial development indicators in CEMAC and section 2, the implications for economic growth and sustainable development.
Topic:
Development, Regional Cooperation, Finance, Economic Growth, and CEMAC (Central African Economic and Monetary Community)
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

4. Financial Autonomy of Decentralized Local Authorities and Local Development

Author:
Herve Ondoua, Bin Meh, Boris Andzanga Ndzana, and Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The financial autonomy of Decentralized Territorial Collectivities (DTCs) is today considered as the foundation of local governance. It confers decision-making power in financial matters to municipalities and regions, as well as a certain level of independence in the management of the resources at their disposal. In Cameroon, the general principles of financial autonomy are defined in the law on the General Code of DTCs, in particular in the Fifth Book, which repeals the law establishing the financial regime of local authorities and that on the financial regime of the State. Thus, financial autonomy should enable DTCs to develop by using their own resources in improving the living conditions of their populations. Despite these powers, DTCs still depend for the most part on income from municipal taxes and income transferred by the State. However, DTCs in Cameroon have real economic and financial potential but not a degree of financial autonomy that would allow them to accelerate the development of their locality. This reflection is aimed at local elected officials, political authorities, government authorities and civil society, with the aim of examining the effectiveness of financial autonomy in the face of the economic and financial potential of DTCs and their ability to implement their own local development projects. This article relates financial autonomy and local governance, on the one hand, and shows how financial autonomy is a factor of valorization of local resources, on the other hand.
Topic:
Development, Government, Finance, Local, Decentralization, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

5. What Synergy of Action in the Fight Against Corruption in Cameroon?

Author:
Theophile Nguimfack Voufo
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The phenomenon of corruption is growing so much in Cameroon, to the point where we must be careful that it does not become a characteristic of Cameroonian identity. Cameroon has twice held the rank of the highest corruption index in the world.[1] However, the will of the public authorities to put an end to it is matched only by the determination of the actors of corruption to escape the meshes of the control mechanisms. Given the government strategy and the proliferation of organizations fighting against corruption, one could expect a significant reduction of this scourge in Cameroon. But like a hydra, corruption remains a major problem in Cameroonian society. A substantial literature has been able to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of administrative, political, and jurisdictional bodies in the fight against corruption.[2] Among other weaknesses are prominently the subordination of the power of sanction to the will of the president of the Republic, the politicization of special operations to fight against corruption, and the lethargy of certain control bodies. The creation of the NACC, an organization specializing in the fight against corruption, has created hope in Cameroon. But, the decree fixing its attributions does not give it its own power of sanction. Consequently, NACC limits itself to noting the facts of corruption and reports them to the public authorities or seizes the judge by denunciation. This technique of referral by denunciation was mainly oriented toward the judicial judge. In practice, however, NACC had to experiment with referral to the Audit Bench of the Supreme Court, which opens up the prospect of collaboration between these two bodies in the fight against corruption in Cameroon. The question arises as to how NACC and the jurisdiction of accounts can combine their actions in the fight against corruption in Cameroon. After analysis, it appears that the ways of functional collaboration between the two organizations exist (I); however, they require some operational coordination (II).
Topic:
Corruption, Courts, Bureaucracy, and Efficiency
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

6. The Russian-Ukrainian War: An Opportunity to Strengthen the AfCFTA

Author:
Steve Tametong and Venessa Aboudi
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The world had hardly covered from the horrors of the COVID-19 pandemic when it was once again tested on February 24, 2022, by the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. The consequences of this war are quite significant for humanity. On the economic level, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has highlighted the disadvantages of globalization, understood as a process marked by the interconnection and interdependence of world economies. The inflationary shock and the food crisis resulting from the inoperative nature of import channels for certain basic necessities from Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated the fragility of the economies. With regard to African countries, in particular, the prices of several basic food products (wheat, flour, rice, maize, bread, vegetable oil, etc.) have risen sharply. Indeed, most African countries are almost dependent on the import of agricultural products and seeds from the two belligerent countries. These imports correspond to 35 billion US dollars of imports each year (1). This appears to be an incongruity given the extent of arable land on the African continent. The low production and especially processing capacity increases the dependence of African economies on the import of these basic products. The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict makes it possible to question the economic resilience of African States, that is to say, their “capacity [ to] keep output close to [their] potential despite a shock ” (2). Above all, it offers the opportunity to analyze the economic and commercial potential of the AfCFTA in the process of building the resilience of African economies to external shocks. Indeed, the AfCFTA was officially launched in January 2021 with the main objective of “creating a single market for goods and services facilitated by the movement of people in order to deepen the economic integration of the African continent…” (3). This policy note is structured around the idea that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in view of its socio-economic consequences on the African continent, offers an opportunity for African countries to work toward the strengthening of the AfCFTA. So that it appears as a real pole of competitiveness and inter-African trade likely to counter the shocks and uncertainties of the dynamics of world trade. Before analyzing the AfCFTA as a pole of production and export of African products (II), it is necessary to take stock of the socio-economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war on African economies (I).
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, Military Strategy, Free Trade, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

7. Entrepreneurship, Youths, and Women Economic Inclusion in Cameroon

Author:
Laurent Brice Nsengue, Bin Joachem Meh, and Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Bentham’s theory of utilitarian morality leads us to know that the purpose of economic activity is to ensure social progress for the happiness of the greatest number. Thus, excluding people from an economic system without considering their interests is considered a destruction of the common good. According to the United Nations (1962), population is one of the most important factors of economic productivity, as it influences the rate of development of a country. Women represent 49.6% of the world’s population and young people aged 10 to 24 represent 15.5% of the world’s population (UN World Youth Report, 2020; World Bank, 2020). In Cameroon, youth and women represent more than 60% of the population, but remain the most economically excluded (BUCREP, 2005). This reality appears to be a challenge for a country that wants to be an emerging country by 2035. The main objective of this paper is to show the role that entrepreneurial development could play in promoting the economic inclusion of youth and women in Cameroon. It is expected to raise awareness among public authorities as well as the private sector of the importance of economic inclusion of youth and women through entrepreneurship development. Based on studies carried out by credible international and local institutions, we focus on the challenges of entrepreneurship in the context of the economic inclusion of youth and women and the opportunity of entrepreneurship for the economic inclusion of young people and women in Cameroon.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Entrepreneurship, Discrimination, Youth, Equality, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

8. Universal Basic Income: A Primer for Poverty Reduction in Africa

Author:
Bin Joachem Meh, Ntoubia Larissa, and Ondoua Herve
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Universal basic income (UBI) scheme provides regular payment in cash to everyone in the economy irrespective of their social, economic, financial, and political status. UBI has a direct effect on poverty reduction; this implies that providing cash to everyone in the society irrespective of their financial status will reduce the rate of poverty as citizens will be able to meet basic needs such as food, housing, and clothing especially if this basic income amount is above the poverty line. For others, UBI will only increase inequality and poverty especially in developing countries who lack finances to provide such income to everyone in the society (Robert, 2019). UBI is a simple and practical solution to eradicating poverty, by giving everyone a minimum income, regardless of whether they are young, old, employed or unemployed, the government can tackle poverty reduction (Centre for Social Justice, 2018). More recently UBI has been a major issue of concern and it is seen as the answer to wider problems of technological unemployment, wealth inequality, mental health stability and social mobility. In India, UBI improved mental and physical health and in Namibia UBI program reduced household poverty from 76% to 37% in one year (Johanna, 2014). The high poverty rate and the scanty nature of the UBI literature in Africa makes this study an important contribution to the body of knowledge and further enable policy makers to reflect on the implementation of UBI principle. The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of universal basic income on narrowing the poverty gap in Africa. The rest of the paper will bring out the role of UBI in poverty reduction, and propose some policy recommendations for the introduction of the UBI in Africa.
Topic:
Poverty, Universal Basic Income, Humanitarian Crisis, Wages, and Income
Political Geography:
Africa

9. The African Continental Free Trade Area: A boon for the “Africa We Want” by 2063?

Author:
Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
One of the major objectives set by the African Union (AU) in Agenda 2063, is to achieve a “prosperous Africa, based on inclusive and sustainable growth”. To ensure the prosperity of the people, especially of women and youth, member states have, in the first ten years of the adoption of this agenda, taken a number of initiatives to strengthen economic integration of the continent. Among these initiatives, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in January 2021, occupies a prominent place. In launching the AfCFTA, and making it effective, the intention of the AU is to overcome the historical fragmentation and isolation of the various African economies. The challenge is to open them up to new global trade opportunities and improve transport and communication links across the continent. However, not all AU member countries have ratified this major project. The objective of this article is to take stock of the economic integration process that has been set in motion with the effective entry into force of the AfCFTA. It highlights, on the one hand, the main reasons that justify the reluctance of states that have not yet signed the AfCFTA agreement and, on the other hand, outlines the opportunities offered by AfCFTA for an Africa that wants to emerge as a strong, united and influential player and partner on the world stage.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Free Trade, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa

10. Cameroon: The State’s Transfer of Powers to the Regions

Author:
Pacome Vouffo
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
If there is one thing that is hardly debatable in legal science, it is the evolution of law through constitutional or legislative textual reform on a given issue. The issue of decentralisation in Cameroon is an illustration. The constitutional and legislative dynamics since independence reflect this, particularly with the inclusion of local authorities in the Constitution of 4 March 1960, the 1974 laws applicable to the Communes and their subsequent amendments , the constitutional reform of 18 January 1996 explicitly raising decentralisation to the constitutional rank , the laws of 22 July 2004 on decentralisation and today Law No. 2019/024 of 24 December 2019 to lay down the General Code of Regional and local authorities(CGCTD). This Code enshrines an evolution in decentralisation law and sets out the terms and conditions for the exercise by the State of powers transferred to regional and local authorities in general and to the Regions in particular. From a legal point of view, this reframing does not seem to have aroused the interest of the doctrine in the same way as the question of the special regime for the North-West and South-West Regions, which has been addressed . In view of its scope, however, it is easy to admit that the legislator has made a significant change. It is necessary to examine the contours of this evolution in order to untangle the threads and consequently set the markers for understanding, following an approach based solely on the Regions as a framework for analysis and not on all the Regional and Local Authorities. Indeed, the choice of the Regions as the analytical framework is not insignificant. As the first level of decentralisation in Cameroon, the Region has only recently been established since its consecration in 1996. It is the characteristic of regionalism instituted since the constitutional reform of 18 January 1996. This regionalism is legally translated by the erection in 1996 of administrative provinces into Regions, headed by a President, an indigenous personality of the Region elected by his peers , and an elected Regional Council whose political colouring prints a mixture of traditional chiefs with the other departmental Councils. Compared to the Commune, therefore, the Region is a new feature of decentralisation which finds its basis in the controversy that took place during the 1996 reform on the form of the State between the supporters of the centralised State and those of the federal State. According to the doctrine, it is a point of agreement between these two (02) trends. When we know that regionalism as a technique for organising the unitary State is an advanced version of decentralisation that could border on federalism without being one, we can only subscribe to the idea that the Region is the point of agreement that would have federated the actors of the 1996 reform. With these considerations in mind, the attention given to the Region is justified. Following this logic, it must be agreed that the exercise by the State of powers transferred to the Regions did not disappear with the advent of the CGCTD, as some authors have suggested. It was maintained, however, with a reform of the legal framework that underpins an evolution in this area. If yesterday, the exercise by the State of powers transferred to the local and regional authorities in general and to the Regions in particular was legally self-evident (I), in the current state of Cameroonian decentralisation law, it is now only a possibility (II).
Topic:
Governance, Reform, State, and Local
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

11. The Regional Administrative Structure in Cameroon

Author:
Ebenezer David Ngahna Mangmadi
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Be it from a common law or a special status, a regional and local authorities[1] resulting from the constitutional reform of January 18, 1996[2], has an administration in charge of instructing and implementing the decisions taken by its executive organs. Under the authority of a secretary general who is appointed by the President of the Republic[3], it is implemented according to the standard organisation set out in decree n°2021/742 of 28 December 2021. It should be noted that this important legal text taken in application of article 496 of law n°2019/024 of 24 December 2009 on the general code of regional and local authorities (hereafter CGCTD), has greatly contributed to the acceleration of the process of establishing the regions initiated by the elections of December 6, 2020. The configuration of the standard model of regional administration that it suggests, highlights a complex combination of structures with diverse functions, the articulation of which may vary from case to case. This organisational scheme reveals the extent of the tasks that a regional administration must undertake, but it is not easy to access. As such, it deserves to be explained. This note is intended for professionals in the field of decentralisation, researchers and citizens seeking information. More clearly, the aim is to inform the reader about the subtleties of the structuring of the regional administration. To achieve this, it relies on an interpretive approach to the texts, mainly, the law n°2019/024 of 24 December 2019, and the decree of 28 December 2021. After presenting the different structures of the regional administration (I), the text will dwell on their articulation (II).
Topic:
Government, Local, Decentralization, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

12. Moving on Up: Multilevel Monitoring and Advocacy for Health Rights

Author:
Abrehet Gebremedhin
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
Multilevel approaches to monitoring and advocacy are often used by international development practitioners, particularly in civil society, in efforts to hold governments—from the national to the local—to account for policy implementation. However, such approaches are not yet well understood or identified by many scholars in the social accountability field. This evidence review addresses this gap through a cross-case comparison of multilevel approaches in ten health rights programs across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It draws on published evaluations, working papers, and peer-reviewed journal articles, as well as insights shared by implementers and researchers. Cases were selected to illustrate health rights initiatives that included monitoring or advocacy activity at a minimum of two different levels: local health facility, district, regional, provincial or national. Four significant findings emerge from this review of evidence: Vertical integration is a relatively common feature of multilevel monitoring and advocacy in these ten cases and is most likely to take place at the lower ends of the health system. However, it is largely implicit, and often not articulated in project design or theories of change. Horizontal organizing—the coordination of civil society action across districts or geographies—is a less visible feature of multilevel approaches to health rights programming than vertical integration. Despite the multilevel nature of health monitoring and advocacy in these ten cases, less than half reported working at the regional or provincial level, indicating a ‘missing middle’ between local and national activity. Escalation—the process by which citizens’ unaddressed claims move upwards to those with greater decision- making powers—is an important mechanism for accountability and one way in which vertical integration can happen. However, escalation is not clearly articulated in much of the gray literature, and therefore merits further research. The findings from this evidence review have implications for strategy, including: the importance of explicitly identifying multilevel tactics for monitoring and advocacy; theorizing the process by which unaddressed claims can be addressed, particularly moving up beyond the local level; emphasizing the importance of the ‘middle’ and ensuring regional and provincial decision-making is leveraged; and looking to link vertical integration with opportunities for horizontal organizing.
Topic:
Civil Society, Health, Accountability, Advocacy, and Monitoring
Political Geography:
Africa, Asia, and Latin America

13. Does Project-Level Aid for Water and Sanitation Improve Child Health Outcomes? Evidence from Household Panel Data in Uganda

Author:
Lynda Pickbourn, Raymond Caraher, and Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Empirical studies on the effectiveness of aid to the water, sanitation, and hygiene sector (WASH aid) have focused primarily on access to these services as the benchmark for evaluating the effectiveness of aid in this sector. Given the importance of WASH services for public health outcomes, the effectiveness of WASH aid should also be evaluated in terms of its impact on health outcomes. This is especially important in low- and middle-income countries where achieving sustained improvements in child health outcomes remains a challenge. This paper uses geocoded sub-national data on the location of WASH aid projects in Uganda in conjunction with six waves of nationally representative household-level panel survey data to examine the impact of aid-funded WASH projects on the probability of stunting among Ugandan children and infants. Analysing aid effectiveness at the sub-national level avoids the problems of cross-country heterogeneity in aid effectiveness that plagues other studies. Results of the difference-in-differences regression analysis suggest that proximity to an aid-funded WASH project reduces the probability of stunting by 14–21 per cent. The results suggest that scaling up aid to the WASH sector can help improve child health outcomes in the country.
Topic:
Health, Humanitarian Aid, Water, Sanitation, and Child Care
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

14. The Egyptian Financial Crisis: Implications for the region, and for Israel too

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Egypt continues to play an active role in regional affairs, including the Aqaba emergency meeting on the Palestinian situation (February 26) and the ongoing effort to prevent escalation in Gaza. At the same time, Cairo is in the middle of a significant financial crisis. The effects of the war in Ukraine – specifically, grain shortages – brought the Egyptian pound to more than 30 to the dollar, up from 20 in November and 15 in early 2022, facilitated by deliberate government action in response to demands by the IMF. Inflation still soars, and so does youth unemployment. All this could destabilize a nation of 105 million on our border, with dire consequences.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Conflict, Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, Egypt, and MENA

15. The Future of EU Blended Finance and Guarantees: An Assessment of Cooperation Strategies with Least Developed Countries in Africa

Author:
Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus (EFSD+) is a core element of EU development cooperation and reflects the EU’s strong commitment to deploying blended finance and guarantees as development financing tools. This discussion paper examines the EU’s intentions concerning how the EFSD+ will be integrated into geographic programmes, focussing on the least developed countries (LDCs) in Africa. Based on a review of the Multiannual Indicative Programmes (MIPs) for 30 African LDCs as well as the regional MIP for Sub-Saharan Africa covering the period 2021-2027, the paper provides an overview of funding reserved for EFSD+ implementation in geographic programmes, identifies the expected EFSD+ sectoral priorities and summarises references to development finance institutions (DFIs) as EFSD+ implementation partners. This descriptive review highlights issues for the future monitoring and assessment of the EFSD+. The paper points to uncertainty about the magnitude of the management challenge that EU institutions face in EFSD+ implementation given the difficulties of predicting the scale of guarantee-backed operations in individual countries, the lack of information on the expected volume of blended finance operations, and the limited analysis of how EFSD+ tools relate to other EU funding approaches. The paper also notes that EU institutions should be more explicit about the criteria shaping EFSD+ resource commitments to clarify relevant prerequisites for the effective deployment of EFSD+ tools. Finally, the broad thematic scope for EFSD+ use implies that knowledge about how blended finance and guarantees function and how the financing approaches interact with other interventions needs to increase throughout the EU system.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Finance, Sustainability, and Cooperation
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

16. Remittances and corruption perceptions in Africa

Author:
Alex Yeandle and David Doyle
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The relationship between remittances and corruption is contested. For some authors, external income endows individuals with financial buffers, which undermine these individuals’ incentive to hold governments to account and allow rent-seeking politicians to invest fewer resources in public goods. For others, remittance payments undermine clientelist networks and increase individual-level political engagement and accountability. For others still, remittances diffuse social norms, since senders are likely to live in large cities or wealthier countries where corruption is less tolerated. However, despite being rooted in individual-level assumptions, many of the conflicting results in the extant literature have an empirical focus at the aggregate level. In this paper we offer a corrective, explaining variation in individual-level perceptions of corruption among remittance recipients through a new mechanism. With survey data from 34 African countries, we show that recipients are endowed with greater cash income, which is used to bribe officials in the hope of securing preferential access to basic services. This act of paying bribes, coupled with the fact that access does not appear to improve, fuels perceptions that the government is corrupt.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Leadership, Accountability, and Bribery
Political Geography:
Africa

17. Keeping tabs? Perceptions of relative deprivation and political trust in Africa

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
What are the implications of economic inequality for trust in government and state institutions? Political trust performs important functions in representative political systems, facilitating the efficient functioning of government, simplifying complex political processes, and reducing monitoring costs for ordinary people. The existing literature has shown that macroeconomic performance (including levels of inequality) and evaluations shape political trust. This paper addresses two gaps in the literature by focusing on the role of individual perceptions and subjective experiences of inequality and by studying cases in Africa. Using Afrobarometer survey data collected from more than 40,000 respondents in 34 African countries between late 2016 and mid-2018, I use multi-level modelling to demonstrate that perceptions of relative deprivation are significantly associated with less trust in representative government institutions and, more weakly, with less trust in state institutions. The effect of perceptions of relative deprivation remains significant when controlling for macroeconomic conditions and performance evaluations. In effect size, trust in representative government institutions is at least comparable to frequently cited covariates of trust such as location, level of education, and government economic performance, suggesting that perceived relative deprivation is indeed an important covariate of such trust. Feeling relatively advantaged is also significantly associated with greater trust in representative government institutions. This may reflect strong neo-patrimonial ties between citizens and political agents. In demonstrating that individual-level economic considerations affect political trust in Africa, we challenge the conventional wisdom that only macroeconomic factors affect trust.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa

18. Explaining the experience of political violence in Nigeria

Author:
Tunde A. Alabi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Violence has been part of Nigeria’s politics since before political independence. While there have been attempts to understand why political violence happens in the country, little emphasis has been placed on explanatory factors for political-violence victimisation. This study investigates the influence of socio-demographic characteristics, presence of security apparatus, partisanship, political participation, and social group membership on the experience of political violence in Nigeria and examines how the influence of these factors varies between Northern and Southern Nigeria – two regions with major social and cultural differences. The study analyses data from the seventh round of the Afrobarometer survey, which were collected in 2017 from 1,568 adults across the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria. Multiple linear regression models were fitted. Our analysis finds that about one in four persons has experienced at least one form of political violence. Living in the South, being young, being poor, living in an area with no police presence, being partisan, participating in politics, and being active in social groups increase the likelihood of political-violence victimisation. While women were more likely than men to experience political violence in the North, the reverse is the case in the South. Regional variation is also observed in the influence of political participation and the degree of the effect of party affiliation and social group membership.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Gender Issues, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

19. Worsening Risk of Mass Atrocities in South Sudan

Author:
Sarah McIntosh and Naomi Kikoler
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum's Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide published a report in February 2022 detailing the immediate risk of mass atrocities facing South Sudanese civilians.1 Since then, threats facing South Sudanese civilians have worsened and the government of South Sudan has failed to take action to mitigate these threats.2 Attacks against civilians have continued, leading thousands of people to be killed, injured, or displaced. Experts told Simon-Skjodt Center staff that they feared the world's youngest country would slip back into full scale war. This stems from both the highly complex conflict dynamics throughout the country with different geographic regions experiencing unique forms of violence from distinct perpetrators as well as the South Sudanese government's recent decision to delay for two years the deadline for implementing the peace agreement and for conducting national elections. Their actions suggest that those most responsible for past abuses may intend to cling to power and evade justice for their actions. The need to take decisive preventative and protective action is urgent.
Topic:
Impunity, Civilians, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

20. Implications of Climate Change Impacts on Food Security Threats in Africa and the Middle East

Author:
Munsu Kang
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The food security crisis in the Middle East has been exacerbated by several events, including COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but the greater crisis is the decline in agricultural productivity caused by climate change and the rise of protectionist trade policies. This study examined the impact of drought on regional grain prices, specifically drought, which has the greatest impact on the Middle East region of Africa among weather changes. It was predicted by the IPCC (2019) that weather changes would affect agricultural production systems and that these changes would affect international grain markets and government trade policies. This study found that prices in the African Middle East maize and rice market increased as the drought intensified and the period lengthened, as predicted. Sorghum and millet, however, are relatively inelastic to climate change, so it can be assumed that they will receive attention as climate change intensifies. This study proposes areas for cooperation such as agricultural production, supporting the vulnerable, and crop reserve with the Middle East and Africa.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Middle East

21. The Politics of New Cities: Diversification of Actors and Recentralization of State Power in the Case of Diamniadio

Author:
Sina Schlimmer
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The construction of new cities on the African continent is in vogue. From multifunctional urban hubs to eco-districts, the images that accompany the announcement of these projects promote an African urban future based on modernity and technology. This trend for urban planning that claims to make a clean sweep of pre-existing approaches is not unique to African countries, whose governments are inspired in particular by North African and Asian models. However, the promotion of new cities in Africa is part of the lively debate that has been going on for several years on the rapid urbanization of the continent's countries. The creation of modern cities, organized and corresponding to the urban planning standards of international metropolises, is presented as a means of avoiding haphazard, chaotic urban development. This paper offers a critical analysis of the policy of new cities based on an empirical study of the new urban pole of Diamniadio (PUD) in Senegal. Two key arguments are put forward in this paper. First, the analysis deconstructs the ex nihilo character of these urban projects and emphasizes that they are part of public policy trajectories. Due to its geo-economic and strategic position, Diamniadio has been at the heart of the Dakar region's territorial planning policies since at least the end of the 1990s. Secondly, new towns are far from being neutral and technical urban planning instruments; rather, they are political devices that convey interests and stimulate power games. By delimiting the boundaries of the PUD, which is presented as President Macky Sall's political footprint, the central government regains certain administrative powers, particularly in terms of land planning and allocation. In addition, the PUD reflects competition from foreign actors, both public and private, and the growing importance of emerging actors such as Turkey.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, State, Urban, and Cities
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

22. Nigeria’s 2023 Election: Democratic Development and Political Fragmentation

Author:
Sa'eed Husaini
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Nigerians will go to the polls on February 25 to elect a new president and members of the National Assembly. This marks the 7th in an unbroken sequence of presidential elections held since the country’s return to democracy in 1999. With President Muhammadu Buhari unable to compete in the election having served two full terms, the unpopular ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party will face a formidable challenge, not only from its traditional rival, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), but also from an unprecedented ‘third party’ challenger – a previously marginal but now surging Labour Party. This paper analyzes Nigeria’s 2023 election not only in the context of this unique partisan configuration, but also considering the wider set of factors that will, in all probability, influence the organization and the outcome of the election. These factors include the preparedness of the Independent National Electoral Commission and especially its capacity to properly deploy its newly acquired biometric and result transmission technologies. In addition, the analysis explores the ways in which the voting process and result will also reflect the limitations and risks imposed by Nigeria’s current climate of chronic insecurity, resulting from active armed militia and criminal groups operating across nearly all regions, but particularly in the Northeast, Southeast, and South-south. Insecurity has likewise coincided with rising elite polarization and the breakdown of the “zoning’ consensus ahead of the election, elevating the importance of identitarian political rhetoric in the campaigns. While insecurity appears likely to contribute to the trend of declining voter turnouts observed in previous elections, the apparent increase in political interest, particularly among young voters, as reflected in the spike in the collection of voters cards ahead of the election might mark a countervailing trend. Against this backdrop, the paper also considers the major parties, candidates, their political projects as well as their target constituencies. It finds that the parties articulated moderately divergent emphases while remaining largely consonant on the contentious economic questions of the period. It also considers possible elections scenarios that may result from the varying institutional and political characteristics of the main parties. Ultimately, it finds that the 2023 poll will represent the continued evolution of Nigerian electoral institutions and political participation in a context of lingering social division and insecurity.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Political Parties, Presidential Elections, and Fragmentation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

23. African Media Cultures and Chinese Public Relations Strategies in Kenya and Ethiopia

Author:
Hangwei Li and Yuan Wang
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China has become a global power, but there is too little debate about how this has happened and what it means. Many argue that China exports its developmental model and imposes it on other countries. But Chinese players also extend their influence by working through local actors and institutions while adapting and assimilating local and traditional forms, norms, and practices. With a generous multiyear grant from the Ford Foundation, Carnegie has launched an innovative body of research on Chinese engagement strategies in seven regions of the world—Africa, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, the Pacific, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Through a mix of research and strategic convening, this project explores these complex dynamics, including the ways Chinese firms are adapting to local labor laws in Latin America, Chinese banks and funds are exploring traditional Islamic financial and credit products in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and Chinese actors are helping local workers upgrade their skills in Central Asia. These adaptive Chinese strategies that accommodate and work within local realities are mostly ignored by Western policymakers in particular. Ultimately, the project aims to significantly broaden understanding and debate about China’s role in the world and to generate innovative policy ideas. These could enable local players to better channel Chinese energies to support their societies and economies; provide lessons for Western engagement around the world, especially in developing countries; help China’s own policy community learn from the diversity of Chinese experience; and potentially reduce frictions.
Topic:
Development, Media, Public Relations, and Engagement
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, China, and Ethiopia

24. Will the Invasion of Ukraine Change Russia-Africa Relations?

Author:
Ronak Gopaldas
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
With ties forged under Soviet rule, Russia has historically enjoyed warm relations with many African countries, as their economic and ideological ambitions often align and their ties are bolstered by a mutual mistrust of the West. The spread of Africa’s votes on United Nations (UN) resolutions to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however, indicates three key themes. Firstly, many African countries are pulled in competing directions by broader global geopolitics—for many, abstaining was the rational choice. Secondly, Russia’s support on the continent may be overstated and is not unconditional. Finally, Russian influence is often limited by the extent to which it can influence the political elite of a country and in some cases co-opt that elite into patronage networks. The split in the way African countries voted to condemn Russia’s actions is an important departure point for an exploration of the changing nature of Africa’s ties to Russia. There have been myriad interpretations of the votes, most of which have focused on the failure of several African countries to denounce the invasion. Few have questioned whether the nonaligned stances of these countries were tacit refusals to be used as supporting actors in public displays of condemnation by the United States and European Union (EU), to distract from the inability to offer meaningful practical or military support. Fewer still have explored whether the nonaligned stances signal weakening Russian influence on a continent it has typically relied on for support. This paper examines political relations between Russia and Africa, delving into the legacy of independence, military support, diplomatic and foreign policy stances, aid, foreign direct investment, and trade. It will also unpack whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a catalyst for what appears to be Russia’s diminishing influence or whether the former Soviet Union’s waning global standing and economic relevance precipitated a loosening of ties. The fluidity of geopolitics has left many African states between a rock and a hard place. What does this mean for Africa, not only in terms of its relationship to Russia but also more broadly on the geopolitical stage? Further, how would Africa be positioned on the global stage should Russia prevail, should the war drag on, or, more interestingly, should Ukraine emerge victorious?
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

25. Why Women Haven’t Been Successful in Nigerian Elections

Author:
Elor Nkereuwem
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Women’s representation in Nigerian politics has been on a downward slide since 2011, and the 2023 elections in Africa’s largest economy confirmed the expectations of poor outcomes for women. The number of women in Nigeria’s National Assembly has fallen by 19 percent compared to the last assembly, with women now occupying 3 percent of seats in the Senate and 4 percent in the House of Representatives.1 To understand why Nigerian women performed so poorly in the recent elections, the 2022 primary elections provided insight into the challenges and barriers faced by women aspirants and candidates. The results of the various parties’ primary elections highlight enduring limitations to women’s representation in competitive politics in Nigeria. The country ranks in the bottom ten globally in women’s representation in national parliaments, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU).2 This challenge of representation persists in spite of the near parity of voter registration between men and women in past election cycles.3
Topic:
Elections, Women, Domestic Politics, and Representation
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

26. Actor Profile: The March 23 Movement (M23)

Author:
Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The March 23 Movement (M23) — Mouvement du 23 Mars in French — is an armed group operating in Nord Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with alleged backing from the Rwandan government. The roots of the M23 go back to the disrupted integration process of Rwandophone militants following the Congo Wars, splitting those willing to return to Rwanda and others desiring to stay in DRC.1 Many fighters remained in Nord Kivu province to form the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) under the leadership of a former Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) militant, Laurent Nkunda. A precursor to the M23, the CNDP claimed to protect Congolese Tutsi and received Rwandan support.2 The M23’s name comes from the failed negotiation process between the CNDP and the Congolese government on 23 March 2009.3
Topic:
Political Violence, Non State Actors, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

27. Political Violence and the 2023 Nigerian Election

Author:
Andrea Carboni and Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 25 February 2023, Nigerians will elect a new president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly. Term limit legislation bars President Muhammadu Buhari from running for a third term, and the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Eighteen candidates are vying for the presidency, and at least 4,223 candidates are running for the 469 seats in the National Assembly.1 The presidential frontrunners include Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who has surprisingly led in the pre-election polls. Two weeks after the national election, on 11 March 2023, 28 out of 36 states will also elect a new governor, with 17 incumbent governors reaching their term limits and hence barred from re-running.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

28. Health of nations: How Europe can fight future pandemics

Author:
Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
As the crisis phase of covid-19 recedes, there is a chance to improve international cooperation on global health – but also a danger that competing reform proposals will lead to inaction. The EU can best support reform of pandemic preparedness and response if it takes account of the concerns of different global powers. The union should combine a push for reform of and increased funding for the WHO with support for a new fund for health emergencies, overseen by a representative group of countries. The EU should promote a new global compact on health, matching countries’ commitment to surveillance and reporting of pathogens with support for stronger healthcare systems and greater equity in the allocation of countermeasures. The EU-Africa relationship offers a chance to pioneer such an approach, but the EU will need to go further in this than it has so far. The EU should promote African vaccine manufacturing, including by pressing European pharmaceutical companies to transfer knowledge and technology to Africa.
Topic:
Health, European Union, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Europe, India, and United States of America

29. Shared fortunes: Why Britain, the European Union, and Africa need one another

Author:
Nicholas Westcott
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Britain and Africa are deeply connected through their history and people as much as through trade, investment, aid, and culture. They can both benefit greatly from this relationship – especially in areas where their interests converge, including economic development, security, education, and climate. But political forces on both sides could push them apart – even as, increasingly, Britain needs Africa more than Africa needs Britain. The British government and the EU need to understand the relationship in its geostrategic context – the influence of China, Russia, Gulf states, and others affects African countries’ views on their place in the world. A closer and more responsive relationship between Britain, Africa, and the EU would have significant benefits for all sides – partly because each is weaker individually than they are together, and because Britain still has strengths that are most useful in cooperation with others. But this will only be possible if the British government significantly changes its approach to Europe as well as to Africa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Europe

30. Back to barracks: Building democracy after the military coup in Sudan

Author:
Amgad Fareid Eltayeb
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The protest movement that toppled dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 promised a first in post-independence Sudan: democratic government. Although a historic opportunity for Sudan, real democracy threatened Sudanese political and military elites. Regimes formed through agreement between these elites constitute the one constant throughout Sudan’s post-independence period. The gap between the political elites and the protest movement helped the military coup in 2021 entrench their position. Violence, repression, and unrest are widespread – and splits in the broader military camp threaten to spill over into civil war. These splits also precipitate Sudan being drawn into regional conflicts such as in Ethiopia and Chad. The international community and European states have failed to find a viable political pathway to end the coup because they are too focused on working with elites. They need to grasp that both military and civilian elites are responsible for failing to open politics to the people of Sudan. The EU and member states should support pro-democracy actors in Sudan and press for a new political pathway centred on them.
Topic:
Military Affairs, European Union, Democracy, and Coup
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

31. Gateway to growth: How the European Green Deal can strengthen Africa’s and Europe’s economies

Author:
Michaël Tanchum
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
In much of Africa, growth is being driven by “green energy innovation ecosystems”, which combine telecoms, digital platforms, solar power, and the internet of things. European companies and states risk losing out on business opportunities and political influence if they fail to integrate their services and infrastructure into these emerging ecosystems. China and other economic and geopolitical rivals will become African states’ main partner if Europeans stand aside from this key growth trajectory. The EU can: assist on offering world-class data regulation and supporting the construction of data centres; support the construction of other infrastructure, such as for 5G; and help roll out off-grid solar power generation and electric vehicle manufacturing. Europeans should work in joint ventures with African firms as this model is proven to create value added that China’s investments often fail to produce. The EU should merge its nascent Global Gateway international connectivity programme with the European Green Deal. The objectives of both require similar levels of investment in African infrastructure and they can unlock the investment potential of European public-private partnerships.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Economy, Innovation, and Green Deal
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa

32. No Time to Waste: Governing Cobalt Amid the Energy Transition

Author:
David Manley, Patrick Heller, and William Davis
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Cobalt is critical. Along with other critical minerals, cobalt has important economic uses and currently few viable substitutes, yet its supply faces a high risk of disruption. Manufacturers of batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) want the metal. EV sales—and likewise, cobalt demand— could grow a lot more. Yet, cobalt may not remain critical for decades to come. EV buyers, battery manufacturers and miners fear the high prices and disrupted supply, as well as human right abuses, environmental destruction, corruption, and political risk. As with other critical minerals, industries are seeking to use less of the metal. The time available for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and other countries to benefit from mining the metal may be short-lived. Good governance is therefore important both for people in mining countries and for humanity to meet the Paris Climate Agreement. This report aims to help governments and their advisors in mining countries, such as the DRC, derive value from mining cobalt, develop industry along the battery-supply chains and address a host of problems from human rights abuses to corruption. The report is also for policy-makers working to ensure that the world delivers enough cobalt in time for the global energy transition.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Energy, Green Transition, and Cobalt
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

33. Triple Win: How Mining Can Benefit Africa’s Citizens, Their Environment and the Energy Transition

Author:
Papa Daouda Diene, David Manley, Silas Olan'g, and Thomas Scurfield
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Africa’s mineral wealth is essential for the energy transition and for the hundreds of millions of people currently living in poverty in African mining countries. Whether and how governments and companies move to further extract this mineral wealth is not only economically and environmentally important for Africa, but also for the vital importance of protecting the world’s rapidly diminishing forests. The world therefore needs a mining triple win: policies that can benefit Africa’s citizens, their environment, and the energy transition. These policies need to work for all if they are to work for any of them. But mining in Africa has been riddled with injustice. Humanity cannot afford to repeat the mistakes that have beset Africa’s mining in the past. To achieve a triple win, this time must be different. There are a whole host of policies available, and many ideas from experts. NRGI has brought these together and considered how they may work to truly achieve a triple win.
Topic:
Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Mining, Minerals, Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa

34. Laying Foundations for Civic Engagement and Government Accountability in Guinea (2011-2020)

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
When President Alpha Condé took office after Guinea’s first democratic election in 2010, he promised to reform the country’s mining sector. Following decades of sector mismanagement and corruption, Guinea introduced a new mining code in 2011 (later amended in 2013) and, in 2012, the government committed to implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) Standard and reviewed 19 mining contracts signed by previous administrations. This reform effort precipitated a significant expansion of the industry: investments picked up and bauxite exports rose, and mining revenues grew. Despite progress, and because of the speed of mining expansion, communities in mining areas experienced increasingly negative impacts from the industry. Their interests went unaddressed; the government had been slow to implement key regulations aimed at protecting them. As a result, 2016 saw uprisings in key bauxite-producing areas. In addition, civil society engagement on extractive issues was weak and fragmented; citizens, activists and journalists lacked crucial information and were ill-equipped to engage on key governance issues.
Topic:
Government, Natural Resources, Governance, Accountability, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea

35. Resource-Backed Loans in Ghana: Risks, Opportunities and Lessons

Author:
Denis Gyeyir
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Developing countries have trouble financing development mainly due to limited access to capital markets, high cost of borrowing, slow growth, or a mix of these. Countries with natural resource endowments have attempted in the last few decades to leverage these endowments to surmount those challenges. Many of their development efforts focus on closing huge infrastructure gaps. Ghana is a producer of cocoa, minerals, oil and gas—assets that have increasingly featured in the government’s infrastructure financing plans. Ghana’s infrastructure financing totaled USD 23 billion between 2007 and 2020, and annual infrastructure investment will need to reach $9.3 billion by 2030 (13.9 percent of 2019 GDP). Official development funding and private sector financing have been inadequate to meet these infrastructure needs. As a result, the Ghana Infrastructure Plan identifies Chinese infrastructural funding as a source to fill the gap. Ghana’s infrastructure financing has in part relied on leveraging its natural resources. Through resource-backed loans (RBLs), governments (directly or through state-owned companies) borrow funds and repay the loans in physical natural resources or with money from resource-related future income streams. Ghana has entered into three such RBL deals, totaling more than $5 billion, in the last two decades; all three involve Chinese state-owned enterprises as lenders.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Resource-Backed Loans, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

36. NRGI Impact: Guinean Communities Benefit from Mining Revenues and Civil Society Capacity Building

Author:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Like many resource-rich low-income countries, Guinea faces challenges in leveraging its natural resource wealth for sustainable development. Despite being the world’s second largest bauxite producer and rich in iron ore, gold and diamonds, Guinea has so far delivered only limited benefits from mining to its citizens, more than half of whom live in poverty. Guinea introduced sector-wide reforms following democratization in 2010 and is successfully implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). However, social unrest, political instability, and the impacts of the Ebola crisis and coronavirus pandemic have slowed the country’s progress toward ensuring that mining income helps improve citizens’ quality of life.
Topic:
Civil Society, Natural Resources, Mining, Revenue Management, and Revenue Sharing
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea

37. Correlates of Politics and Economics: How Chinese Investment in Africa Changes Political Influence

Author:
Carla D. Jones, Mengge Li, and Hermann A. Ndofor
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
This study investigates the impact of Chinese economic engagement in Africa (FDI and loans from China to African countries) on African countries’ international political alignment as evidenced by voting patterns in the UN General Assembly. We find three seasons of Chinese policy in Africa. Pre 2008, Chinese economic engagement in Africa was driven primarily by economic considerations, market seeking for FDI and likely resource seeking for loans. During the Great Recession, China came to terms with its rise as an economic power and thus started leveraging its economic power in international relationships. During this season, both Chinese FDI and loans were no longer driven by economic considerations but rather by international relations which led to increased political alignment with recipient African countries. The final season captured the Xi Jinping era beginning 2013. During this season, Chinese FDI had no effect on African countries’ foreign policy alignment with China, but Chinese loans still had a significant positive effect. This likely reflects a movement away from FDI to less transparent bilateral loans as a means of utilizing Chinese economic power to influence foreign policy. During the entire period of the study, Chinese FDI to Africa resulted in reduced political alignment between African countries and the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, Investment, and Influence
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

38. The Wagner Group's Playbook in Africa: Mali

Author:
Raphael Parens
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
What is the Wagner Group doing in Mali? Since it rose to prominence after its involvement in the Syrian Civil War alongside the Assad regime, Wagner Group, a Russian-owned Private Military Contractor (PMC), has expanded its footprint into Africa. [1] Wagner has immersed itself in Libya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Central African Republic (CAR), and Sudan, leading training exercises, fighting anti-government forces, and brutally quelling protests. Wagner Group often overlaps with Russian state foreign policy aims, but its position as an independent contractor lends it unpredictability, while giving Russia plausible deniability. The group offers the Russian state a valuable tool: the ability to test new environments for military cooperation without appearing heavy-handed or overtly involved. Wagner has established a pattern of political, military, and economic involvement in Sudan and CAR since 2015. Wagner Group and its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, have followed this strategy successfully in Mali, contributing to France’s recent decision to withdraw its military forces from the country. Although Wagner group still needs to adapt its strategy to succeed in a new environment in Mali, the Kremlin has strong-armed a key competitor out of the country. This creates potential contagion effects for the rest of the Sahel, particularly those countries facing long-term insurgencies, such as Burkina Faso.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Non State Actors, Wagner Group, and Military
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Mali

39. The Challenges of Data Collection in Conflict-affected Areas: A Case Study in the Liptako-Gourma Region

Author:
Shourjya Deb and Virginie Baudais
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Conducting research in the Sahel has become more challenging over the past 10 years, and the continuing deterioration of the security situation has restricted access to many areas. This SIPRI Insights paper provides an overview of the main challenges for researchers when conducting data collection in conflict-affected areas. The paper employs a case study of a humanitarian protection project that SIPRI has been working on in the Liptako-Gourma region. The project was designed in collaboration with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) and three local research partners: the Centre for Democratic Governance (CGD) in Burkina Faso, Point Sud in Mali and the Laboratoire d’Études et de Recherche sur les Dynamiques Sociales et le Développement Local (LASDEL) in Niger. Using the case study, the paper identifies and outlines how the project addressed specific challenges. The paper also highlights key considerations for researchers to take into account when carrying out data collection and fieldwork in conflict zones. Evidence-based research can influence humanitarian and development initiatives and support shifts in policy and programming. The bottom-up research approach gives a voice to communities and alternative perspectives and advances evidence-based solutions that are locally driven, meaningful and sustainable for target populations.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Governance, Conflict, Peace, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

40. Climate Change and Violent Conflict in West Africa: Assessing the Evidence

Author:
Kheira Tarif
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
West Africa is widely cited as a hotspot of climate change and insecurity. This SIPRI Insights uses a systematic literature review of academic research to build a better understanding of the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in the region. Its findings are structured around four established ‘pathways’ of climate insecurity: (a) worsening livelihood conditions; (b) increasing migration and changing pastoral mobility patterns; (c) tactical considerations by armed groups; and (d) elite exploitation of local grievances. The literature review highlights a number of important variables in the relationship between climate change and violent conflict in West Africa: maladaptation to livelihood insecurity; migration away from climate-exposed areas; escalating farmer–herder conflicts; and sometimes weak, sometimes divisive, sometimes exploitative governance. Despite these findings, the literature review reveals current research and policy discussions on climate change and violent conflict in West Africa are informed by a very limited amount of academic research.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Conflict, Violence, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

41. Consumption of New and Emerging Tobacco and Nicotine Products in Zambia: Implications for Policy

Author:
Shimukunki Manchishi, Edna Kabala, and Mulenga Chonzi Mulenga
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The global economy has in recent years observed a rapid increase in the consumption of New and Emerging Tobacco and Nicotine Products (NETNPs). Consumers of the NETNPs in Zambia and elsewhere justify consumption of these products on grounds that they are less harmful and expose them to fewer health risks compared to traditional tobacco smoke. However, studies have shown that these NETNPs do not entirely filter out harmful chemicals from tobacco as presumed by many people, and in some cases may even expose smokers to more smoke over longer periods of time as is the case of water pipe (shisha). This study investigated the consumption and taxation of NETNPs in Zambia to generate knowledge and come up with evidence-based policy recommendations aimed at informing appropriate stakeholders on the consumption and taxation of NETNPs. The study employed a mixed methodology encompassing a desk review, a survey of 400 respondents and key informant interviews. In terms of the consumption of NETNPs, the study revealed that a majority of those surveyed consume water pipe, which ranked highest among the NETNPs consumed in Zambia. Other NETNPs commonly consumed include bidis, e-cigarettes and dry snuff (nsunko). The consumption of these products varied according to the economic status of the consumers, with products such as snus and e-cigarettes being much more preferred and consumed by those in employment because they can afford more costly products. Meanwhile, products such as water pipe and bidis were the products of choice among those not employed and this could also be attributed to the relatively lower cost of the products. Regarding the socio-demographic characteristics of the surveyed sample, the study established that most of the consumers of NETNPs were young, unmarried males. A notable finding in the study was that those who had attained tertiary level of education were the biggest consumers of NETNPs. With regards to taxation of NETNPs, the study has found that there is potential to increase taxes substantially based on consumers’ willingness to pay which would require very high tax levels to deter consumption. This would require the government to considerably increase excise taxes on these products which would ultimately increase their price and hence curtail their consumption. The study has established that the taxation of all tobacco products in Zambia is the sole responsibility of the ZRA which draws its mandate from various provisions of the Zambian law. Broadly there are eight categories used to classify tobacco and nicotine products based on the HS codes. This broad classification forms the basis for taxation of tobacco and nicotine products in Zambia. The study has established that there are four main taxes applied on tobacco products in Zambia, these include: a 25% customs duty levied on the value of the product imported; a VAT of 16% on the value of the product; a 5% surtax; and excise duty of 145% of the value for duty purposes (VDP) or K355 per kg for all tobacco products.
Topic:
Health, Digital Economy, Business, Tax Systems, Public Policy, Tobacco, Public Health, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

42. CPLP: the first twenty-five years

Author:
Joseph Marques
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
The decision by Conjuntura Austral to dedicate a special issue to the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) is to be commended. The uniqueness of the organization justifies a timely review of a small sample of its activities to date. Created in 1996, the CPLP adopted three main vectors of activity:1) the promotion and dissemination of the Portuguese language; 2) cooperation in a wide array of domains (i.e., education, health, science and technology, defense, agriculture, public administration, communication, justice, public safety, culture, sport and social communication, sustainable development, etc.); and 3) political and diplomatic coordination, especially in multilateral forums. The organization also agreed to adhere to several fundamental political principles such as the respect of the sovereignty of each member country; non-interference in domestic issues; reciprocal treatment; peace, democracy, rule of law, human rights, and social justice; territorial integrity of each member state; and the commitment to the promotion of development and cooperation. In addition to a common language and shared cultural heritage, the uniqueness of the CPLP results from the union of nine non-contiguous member states into a privileged geocultural space – the lusosphere – dedicated to the active promotion of its three main goals across four continents. It is a privileged forum for a “pluricontinental dialogue” in Portuguese. In addition, each country contributes by bringing its history, its unique interpretation of the “lusosphere” as well as its regional context (i.e., membership in the European Union, Mercosur, Southern African Development Community, Economic Community of West African States, etc.) as well as economic opportunities to the group. By joining, member countries reinforce the group’s collective projection onto the world stage as well as the opportunity to expand each member country’s diplomatic footprint. While each member had different reasons to join (i.e., maximize politicaldiplomatic cooperation, language promotion, widen access to technical cooperation, etc.), all believe that the CPLP can bolster the group’s overall political and diplomatic prestige while enhancing their collective and individual prospects. This special issue consists of six articles ranging from language to health, security and defense issues, business negotiations and civilian-military relations. It covers but a few topics from a long list of issues which, after the first twentyfive years of this new international organization, warrant the attention and critical review of academic scholars.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Health, Business, Language, Indigenous, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Brazil, South America, Southeast Asia, and Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP)

43. The EU Green Deal. A new momentum for democratic governance in the MENA region?

Author:
Dina Fakoussa
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Dysfunctional governance and repression lie at the heart of social, economic and political challenges and crises in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The nature of governance, whether autocratic, corrupt, crony capitalist, highly centralised, patriarchal and/or merely incompetent, led to alarming socioeconomic and political grievances. These grievances accumulated over decades sparking region- wide protests in 2010, 2011 and subsequent years. Without major improvements in the quality of democratic governance,1 further crises are inevitable, and sustainable stability will remain unattainable, with major negative repercussions for the European Union (EU) itself. Naturally, climate change is augmenting these challenges and increasing the pressure on government performance. The EU Green Deal addresses this uniquely urgent matter in need of assertiveness, namely climate change with its worldwide palpable repercussions and impact for all. The deal has serious implications for economies and hence societies in MENA countries. At the same time, it could and must serve as a vehicle for improved democratic governance in the region. This is also in the interests of the EU’s green ambitions, as lasting environmentally sound and socially just policies in countries beyond the EU will hardly materialise without improvements in the area of democratic governance. The two subject areas are mutually dependent; hence, the durable success of climate policies is unlikely without being buttressed by democratic components. This understanding needs to be mirrored in all EU policies and programmes targeting the region by interweaving climate policies with democratic governance.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, European Union, Democracy, Repression, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

44. Youth unemployment in the South of the Mediterranean: A chronic challenge to development and stability

Author:
Hussein Suleiman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Unemployment among youth, aged 15 to 24 years old according to the International Labour Organization (ILO)’s definition, is the highest in the south of the Mediterranean, and in the larger Middle East and North Africa (MENA), compared to other regions in the world. This problem is exacerbated by very low labour force participation rates for this age group in the region, also compared to other regions. Furthermore, this issue of high youth unemployment is not a recent development but has been chronic in the region for at least the last three decades, as shown in detail further on. Youth unemployment south of the Mediterranean is a major challenge, and a symptom of deeply-rooted problems in the region’s labour markets. Unemployment is largely a youth unemployment issue. The problem is mainly one of new entrants’ transition from school age to work (Assaad & Krafft, 2016) but with consequences that could easily shape the entire life trajectories of individuals in the region and also have widespread impacts on their societies and even neighbouring countries. Such worrying and chronic challenges in the region’s labour markets have been largely shaped by structural deeply-rooted issues, reflected in the rise of work informality as a result of falling public employment, and a slow growth of formal private employment in the region throughout the last few decades, which will be discussed in detail in the paper. This paper aims to provide policy recommendations to address such chronic problems in the region, focusing mainly on Southern Mediterranean countries in North Africa, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco, excluding Libya because of the exceptional impact of the civil war on its labour market during the last decade. The paper first explores some prominent implications of low employment among the youth, for their own lives and their societies. It then proceeds to examine the magnitude of the problem in the selected countries and its development across the last three decades, relying mostly on ILO estimates, which, unlike national estimates, have a few missing entries in that extended period, and also allow for disaggregation by age groups and gender that might not always be available for national estimates. Next, the paper highlights the now-established explanation of the youth employment problem in the region and how it developed, before finally moving to the recommended policy measures, both domestic and through regional cooperation, to address this chronic problem that has played a major role in the radical political and social shocks in the region in the last decade.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Youth, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

45. Paradoxical Africanisation of Libya after 2011. Growing influence of sub- Saharan African government, rebel, diplomatic and criminal actors in the post-Gaddafi state

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The 2011 downfall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi marked a tipping point for Libya’s southern neighbours in re-defining their roles on the regional north-south axis. The era of an assertive Libyan foreign policy on Africa came to a halt. Simultaneously, as a consequence of the civil war, multiple African actors, both state and non-state, assumed greater influence inside and over Libya. The country moved from being an exporter of security and insecurity to sub-Saharan Africa, as under Gaddafi, to becoming an importer. Some aspects of this largely unnoticed, multi-dimensional “Africanisation” [1] of Libya are likely to take root. Changes in Libya’s and sub-Saharan African actors’ standings within the regional setting represent a new reality on the ground that has not been contextualised and analysed thoroughly enough. Only when the international actors do so will they be able to adequately navigate and constructively engage social, political and security structures within the Libya- sub-Saharan Africa framework. Thus, this paper aims to answer the following research questions: in which specific north-south security-related phenomena did sub-Saharan African actors assume agency? Are the motivations of the actors involved opportunistic or do they include long-term political goals? Which aspects of “Africanisation” are taking solid roots and could be sustained beyond the period of Libya’s instability? Will this change to the regional order be temporary and reversible? What are the implications for the European Union (EU) policies related to peace, security and governance in Libya? For the research, several interviews with representatives of the regional armed groups, policy advisors, policy-makers and researchers with an insightful understanding of local and regional dynamics have been conducted since 2018, including during field research in Sudan in 2019. Those have been supplemented by a comprehensive review of existing literature on cross-border conflict dynamics in the Libya-Sudan-Chad-Niger borderlands, Libya-sub-Saharan African relations and relevant documents of international organisations. Historical methods focusing on the long-term and comprehensive processes seen within a big picture are being supplemented with an analytical approach seeking logical consequences and formulating predictions out of hard data and a comparative approach, where models, institutions and experiences are put together with more or less adequate processes found elsewhere.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Governance, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

46. Building Resilience Blocks: How to Improve the Quality of Work for the Egyptian Construction Precariat?

Author:
Hanaa Ebeid and Salma Hussein
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The past two years have revealed the difficult living conditions of millions around the world experiencing compounded insecurities, especially of work and income. Within this context, this paper explores how the notion of precarity applies to informal construction workers in Egypt. It argues that their working conditions fail to satisfy the decent work indicators recommended by the International Labour Organization (ILO) and relevant literature. The paper also assesses the Egyptian government’s intervention during the COVID-19 pandemic regarding informal irregular workers. The government pushed forward infrastructure projects in order to cushion the impact of the pandemic on unemployment. It also distributed cash transfers to irregular informal workers for six months. The paper explains why these measures were not enough. Based on focus group discussions, an in-depth interview and an extensive study of ILO literature, the paper puts forward a set of recommendations with the aim of improving the quality of work under which the majority of workers in the construction sector in Egypt live.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Resilience, and Construction
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

47. From a Fragmented Cooperation to an Integrated Approach – The Emergence of the Maghreb and Sahel Region and its Consequences for the European Union

Author:
Erzsébet N. Rózsa and Viktor Marsai
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The history of the European Union (EU)’s foreign and security policy has been characterised by a continuous develop- ment and a process of adaptation to the realities on the ground and the experi- ences gained. This was manifest in the gradual change from bilateral relations to regional/multilateral structures, from trade through three-basket/three-pillar structured relations to the integrated ap- proach as introduced by the 2016 EU Global Strategy, and the institutionalisa- tion thereof. “Internal and external secu- rity are ever more intertwined: our secu- rity at home entails a parallel interest in peace in our neighbouring and surround- ing regions. It implies a broader interest in preventing conflict, promoting human security, addressing the root causes of instability and working towards a safer world” (EEAS, 2016). The present pa- per argues that, in order to be able to halt the increasingly complex threats fac- ing the EU and maintain its global actor status, the EU should introduce further – sectorial and regional – flexibility, in- cluding, among others, definitions of the widening geographical scope underlying its strategic vision. Therefore, this paper first asks how the EU and its member states should recon- sider their regional approach. How can the EU implement the existing frame- works and/or develop a more effective and adaptive strategy towards its south- ern neighbourhood fitting the new reali- ties on the ground better?
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sahel

48. Gender-Based Violence in Egypt and Morocco: Politics and Policy-Making

Author:
Dima Rashed and Rabha Allam
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Violent practices against women are widespread globally. They occur in private quarters and public spaces by persons within a victim’s close circles, including family members, as well as members of the larger society. Over the past half a century, the international community has taken steps to eliminate violence against women (VAW). The Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW), adopted in 1979 by the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, has defined discrimination against women as “…any distinction, exclusion or restriction made on the basis of sex which has the effect or purpose of impairing or nullifying the recognition, enjoyment or exercise by women, irrespective of their marital status, on a basis of equality of men and women, of human rights and fundamental freedoms in the political, economic, social, cultural, civil or any other field” (UN Women, n.d.a). In 1993, the United Nations Declaration of Violence against Women took another step by defining acts of violence against women as “any act of gender-based violence that results in, or is likely to result in, physical, sexual or psychological harm or suffering to women, including threats of such acts, coercion or arbitrary deprivation of liberty, whether occurring in public or in private life (UNGA, 1993). This global engagement with VAW prompted attention on the legislative and policy-making levels, as well as within academic investigations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where patriarchal traditions have endured. The paper focuses on Gender-Based Violence (GBV) directed at women and girls in Morocco and Egypt through a comparative investigation of laws and policies. We probe women’s security over the past two decades and find that while Egypt has experienced progress on fighting Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) and economic violence against women, Morocco has advanced on issuing a more progressive Personal Status Code and VAW in the domestic sphere. How can we understand this divergence between two North African countries where Islamic Sharia is the basis of family laws? And how have state-society relations impacted efforts to fight VAW in both countries? We adopt definitions of UN Women on GBV, forms of violence and economic violence. GBV is defined as “harmful acts directed at an individual or a group of individuals based on their gender.” Forms of violence challenging women and girls are defined as “any act of gender-based violence that results in, or is likely to result in, physical, sexual or mental harm or suffering to women and girls, including threats of such acts, coercion or arbitrary deprivation of liberty, whether occurring in public or in private life. Violence against women and girls encompasses, but is not limited to, physical, sexual and psychological violence occurring in the family or within the general community, and perpetrated or condoned by the State” (UN Women, n.d.b). Economic violence is defined as a practice that “involves making or attempting to make a person financially dependent by maintaining total control over financial resources, withholding access to money, and/or forbidding attendance at school or employment” (UN Women, n.d.b).
Topic:
Politics, Gender Based Violence, Feminism, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, and Morocco

49. The Role of Egyptian Female Entrepreneurship in the Digital Era post-COVID-19

Author:
Doaa Salman Abdou
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The current “cloud revolution” accelerates the digitalisation of economies as it expands business opportunities, thus boosting the economy and enhancing business activities. During the COVID-19 pandemic, digital economy countries had the opportunity to sustain many activities remotely, while many developing countries fell into poverty and were forced to face a surge of unemployment. There were more unemployed females than males, and the female participation rate was lower than for males. Digitalisation can accelerate female entrepreneurs’ participation in the labour market and allow them to increase their productivity growth. It can therefore help increase their standard of living, decreasing poverty and creating economic stability (Van Praag & Versloot, 2007). COVID-19 challenges the dreams of many entrepreneurs across the globe to sustain their business using technology but even more so in developing countries as their access to technology is lower than in developed countries because it is not affordable and in some rural areas not available. In this context, not all countries have been affected in the same way. As a result of the epidemic, women’s employment decreased the most throughout the Americas (a reduction of 9.4%). The Arab States saw the second-largest drop in the number of employed women, with women’s employment falling by 4.1% and men’s by 1.8% between 2019 and 2020 (ILO, 2021). The pandemic widens the gender gap rather than closing it. Such a shock urges a reduction of the digital divide, as it is considered a necessary tool and not a luxury. Such a tool can keep businesses going and help them recover after the global shock, especially for women who had to stay at home with their children. Women, youths and people with medium and low skills experienced a decline in employment worldwide in 2020. Female workers were disproportionately affected compared to male workers, with unemployment accounting for 38.9% of total employment before the COVID-19 crisis but rising to 47.6% of the total workforce (ILO, 2020). The lockdown due to the pandemic pushed women to learn how to benefit from digitalisation as it has a direct link to both poverty alleviation and women’s empowerment, especially in developing countries, where it plays a significant role in gender equality and economic development.
Topic:
Entrepreneurship, Feminism, Pandemic, COVID-19, Digitalization, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

50. Social Protection Reforms in the MENA Region: Possibilities and Challenges

Author:
Abdalhadi Alijla
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
The COVID-19 crisis that hit the world in 2020 revealed a huge gap in access to public services, equality and government responsiveness to the consequences of the pandemic. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the COVID-19 crisis showed the inadequacy of the public institutions and their abilities to protect the poor, and ensure that populations’ needs are met, especially informal workers, women, children and the elderly. The social protection systems in the MENA countries are relatively weak, facing challenges or disfunctions through many ad-hoc programmes, making it difficult to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. This is particularly observed in countries facing a pre- COVID-19 economic crisis, such as Lebanon. There is clear evidence that social protection systems have a positive impact on the lives of the population in times of crisis. They improve access to health and education, and increase economic security. Social protection systems work during times of crisis and times of stability, but they are strategic tools that show that states have the capacity to design and deploy policy tools to protect people. In divided societies, inequalities are usually wider and, therefore, a comprehensive social protection system with a high rate of coverage is needed. In this Policy Study, we present four chapters, examining the state-of-the-art of social protection systems in the MENA region, challenges, and potential opportunities that government, local non-governmental organizations (NGOs), international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and the European Union (EU) could take to assist in establishing comprehensive social protection systems. The COVID-19 crisis is an opportunity to learn and identify where the gaps are and what needs to be done by formal and informal institutions in the MENA region to reform and re-engineer their social protection systems with help from the EU and its institutions. COVID-19 arrived in the MENA region during an economic crisis in Lebanon, Jordan and Tunisia, marked by huge inequalities, vulnerabilities with increasing poverty and low trust in governments and their performance. Lockdown, closure and physical distancing have also led to loss of jobs and income for millions of people, mainly informal workers, and businesses. The vulnerable groups who are already living in economic distress, such as informal workers, youth, women and the elderly, are the most affected parts of the population. They are the most vulnerable to loss of income and unemployment. This study highlights that MENA states lack comprehensive and effective social protection systems. In many MENA countries, ad-hoc programmes substitute a comprehensive social protection system. The study examines the rural-urban and socioeconomic group gaps in accessing services, such as health and education, and economic opportunities. It shows that the historic gap between urban-rural and socioeconomic groups' ability to access the same services and opportunities compared to other groups affected the ability of those groups to cope with the pandemic, exposing them to more vulnerability. The study examines the policy response of the MENA governments to the pandemic, namely in Lebanon, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco – four countries that have been particularly challenged by COVID-19. It identifies several gaps and op- portunities to develop the social protection system. The study examines cash- based programmes, access to public health, informal workers, women’s protection, digitalisation of social protection systems, and education, to some extent. It focuses on youth, women, the elderly, disabled persons and children as the most vulnerable groups in the region. It identifies that coordination between formal in- stitutions and INGOs needs to be formalised, informal workers need to be included in the social protection system, women and the elderly should be prioritised, and informal social protection mechanisms could be supported through livelihood activities, but is not seen as a major part of any social protection mechanism. It finally highlights the need for digitalisation of reformed social protection systems or strategies.
Topic:
Governance, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

51. Times they are A-changin’: Africa at the Centre Stage of the new (II) Liberal World Order

Author:
Nina Wilen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Amid a renewed Global Power competition, Africa’s abundance of natural resources, its exponential demographic development, and the current expansion of militant Islamist groups in the region, increases its strategic importance and pushes the continent to the center stage of international relations. This brief explores Africa’s position in this changing global context and examines major actors’ presence in, and stance towards, Africa on the global arena. It does this while arguing that as the competition for influence and access to resources in Africa is intensified, Western actors need to become clearer about their interests, avoid ill-perceived imposition of conditionalities – unless they are willing to risk access and follow them through – and adopt a case-by case approach to states on a continent as diverse as Africa.
Topic:
Globalization, International Cooperation, Liberal Order, and World System
Political Geography:
Africa

52. Al-Shabab in Mozambique: Taking Stock of an Insurgency Under Cover

Author:
Tom Van Rentergem
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Since the first attack in October 2017, Mozambique has been confronted with an extremist insurgency called Ansar Al-Sunna Wa Jamma (ASWJ), also known as Al-Shabab (not to be confused with Al-Shabab in Somalia). The alleged Jihadists targeted the Mozambican coastline and have carried out indiscriminate attacks in the Northern province of Cabo Delgado, with the capture of coastal towns Mocimboa Da Praia in 2020 and Palma in 2021 being important markers for the insurgents. The intense five-year conflict has resulted in 4,000 people dead and 800,000 Internally Displaced Persons (IDP), roughly half of the province. The identity of the insurgents has become subject for debate among policy makers and researchers, raising questions about whether the group is primarily a local insurgency or whether there are tangible links to Jihadism in other areas of Africa and the Middle East.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

53. Protecting Civilians From Those Who Should Protect Them

Author:
Delina Goxho
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
As violent attacks targeting civilians in the Sahel region of West Africa are mounting, allegations of abuses perpetrated by Sahelian armed forces share the news with attacks committed by non-state armed groups. This brief analyses the main shortcomings within the governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger with regard to ensuring meaningful Protection of Civilians (PoC) from their own security and defence forces. It finds that formal, structural measures to address state security forces’ abuse of civilians is lacking in all three states, although some promising initiatives to build trust between security forces and civilians have been held on a local level. On a regional level, the OHCHR-mandated Human Rights Compliance Framework, which has partially been adopted by regional force Force Conjointe – G5 Sahel (FC-G5S), represents an example of a mechanism that could ensure better protection of civilians both for the region, and on a national level. However, the advent of Russian paramilitary group Wagner in Mali and the most recent massacre of civilians in Moura is challenging all optimistic forecasting.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Conflict, and Civilians
Political Geography:
Africa

54. Who’s Been Making “African Solutions”? Mapping Membership Patterns in the African Union’s Peace and Security Council

Author:
Nina Wilen and Paul D. Williams
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
This year marks the 20th anniversary since the establishment of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union, the AU’s principal decision-making body for promoting peace, security, and stability in Africa. This brief examines the patterns and trends that have emerged during the past two decades of PSC elections and finds that African governments persistently elected autocrats and states experiencing violent conflict to serve on the PSC, thus undermining the AU’s principles. This pattern risks skewing PSC decision-making in unhelpful ways, undermining effective crisis management, and making it difficult to uphold the AU’s stated norms and principles.
Topic:
Security, Regional Cooperation, Peace, and Africa Union
Political Geography:
Africa

55. France in the Eastern Mediterranean and the MENA region’s geopolitical competition: French grandeur or European sovereignty?

Author:
Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The global rivalry between the US and China, as well as geopolitical competition and instability in the EU’s southern neighbourhood, are perceived by France as urgent matters requiring stronger EU foreign policy, conceptualized as European sovereignty. The French foreign policy elite are still largely committed to the idea of France’s exceptional role in the world, and to the extent that the EU as a whole fails to live up to the tasks presumed by France, continue their attempts at forging coalitions of the willing. France has in recent years built a web of strategic partnerships, for example with Greece, the Republic of Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt, through which it aims to govern the instability in the EU’s southern neighbourhood. The aim is also to deter regional adversaries such as Turkey, a strategy that needs to be re-evaluated due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. France often equates its national interests with those of the EU. While this can be seen to enhance European sovereignty, it also risks increasing the perception that the EU would be a participant in various Middle Eastern conflicts. This undermines the EU’s ability to function as an objective broker and anchor of norms.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Foreign Interference, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Middle East, France, North Africa, Mediterranean, and MENA

56. Justifications of Repression in Autocracies: An Empirical Analysis of the Maghreb, 2000–2010

Author:
Maria Jousa
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Previous studies on the justification of repression have analysed large-scale protests, about which autocratic officials communicate to avoid backlash effects. However, we know much less about how everyday repression against dissidents and ordinary citizens is communicated and justified under authoritarianism. This paper is the first to systematically investigate how officials in autocracies justify, conceal, or deny different forms of repression employed by different state institutions. It studies the communication of repression in two North African autocracies, drawing on the novel Justifications of Repressive Incidents in Morocco and Tunisia Dataset. The dataset contains 439 events between 2000–2010 and disaggregates the various dimensions of repression and its communication. The empirical analysis shows that the chosen forms of repression influence patterns of communication and justification. Studying the communication of repression helps us better understand the nexus of authoritarian legitimation and political violence in the Middle East and North Africa region and beyond.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, Leadership, and Repression
Political Geography:
Africa and Maghreb

57. EU-Africa relations ahead of the EU-AU Summit: Taking stock, looking forward

Author:
Pavlos Petidis
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The European Union’s (EU) development policy is a broad field of activity that has undergone multiple significant modifications in both its definitions and its goals. The external relations of the European Union have long included development policy, resulting in an asymmetrical relationship with Africa. Since the turn of the century, the scope of the EU-Africa relationship has expanded to cover new challenges including climate change, terrorism, trade liberalization, and migration. EU development policies reveal a long-term shift in EU development priorities away from fundamental development goals and toward a wider array of ambitions, actors, and methodologies. Identifying and prioritizing the International Organizations on which it and its member states should best focus their diplomatic and political capital is a challenge. Given the political clout and relevance of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for the continent’s economic development, the EU can concentrate its efforts on encouraging its implementation by deepening its Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). Working together to strengthen multilateralism and support the implementation of the European Green Deal and the AfCFTA form the axis of a new articulated African agency.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, Migration, Terrorism, European Union, Partnerships, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and Europe

58. Turkey’s “anti-colonial” pivot to Mali: French-Turkish competition and the role of the European Union in the Sahel

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Dawid A. Fusiek
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Turkey’s rising foreign policy ambitions have been best reflected in its pivot to Africa. One of the tropes used by the Erdoğan administration to advance its cause are references to the colonial heritage of the European Union (EU) and its member states. The AKP and its officials have employed this discourse to challenge the French influence in Mali since the 2020 coup d’état. As this paper shows, Turkey uses anti-colonial discourse to exploit postcolonial sentiments with a view to challenging the political and economic power of Western actors, to portraying Turkey as a legitimate and “anti-colonial” ally and partner and, in the long run, to establishing a robust Turkish presence in Mali, the Sahel and beyond. In order to counter Turkish influence, the EU needs to promote fair cooperation with Mali and West Africa, to assist with political and economic development in the region, and to mobilise Member States which are unencumbered with a colonial past.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Anti-Colonialism, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, France, Mali, and Sahel

59. The Western Sahara conflict in the Algerian Moroccan relations

Author:
Lotfi Sour
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Algeria and Morocco have for centuries kept an uneasy relationship of conflict and doubt which shaped the Maghreb region history. In fact, both states shared the same borders but never shared same policies. This caused the relational gap at both governmental level and social grounds. As a result, the hostility and continuing tension has remained at top in their foreign policies for most of their mutual history. Consequently, the Western Sahara conflict has been undoubtedly an important driver of one of the most critical problems to have confronted the two countries in the course of their bilateral relations. This article will examine the impact of this conflict on the geopolitical landscape of the Maghreb region and its implications on the Maghreb’s regional security and integrity.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Conflict, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Africa, Algeria, Morocco, and Western Sahara

60. África y (Sur) América Latina: Un interregionalismo posible, una alianza improbable

Author:
Francisco Santos Carrillo
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
El interés de América Latina por África se renovó a comienzos del presente siglo. Las transformaciones globales, el liderazgo de Brasil y la emergencia del regionalismo impulsaron una asociación basada en el diálogo político y la cooperación cuyo objetivo era alcanzar una mayor incidencia sobre el sistema internacional. Sin embargo, el déficit de interdependencia, la debilidad de la institucionalización interregional y la vulnerabilidad de los actores involucrados limitaron el alcance de esta estrategia sin alcanzar su verdadero potencial. En un escenario de incertidumbre que anuncia cambios en el orden mundial y consolida una gobernanza fragmentada, la posibilidad de restablecer esta relación encuentra nuevos incentivos. El artículo analiza los factores catalizadores de este proceso concluyendo que, pese a la oportunidad, su materialización sigue sin contar con las condiciones ni capacidades necesarias para competir geopolíticamente por África.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Africa, South America, Latin America, and Global South

61. De la Agenda Normativa Al ‘Giro Pragmático’: Causas, Implicaciones y Dilemas de la Estrategia Securitaria de la UE en El Sahel

Author:
Óscar Mateos Martín
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La región del Sahel se ha convertido en una prioridad estratégica para la Unión Europea (UE). Bruselas ha desplegado en la última década diversas misiones en el marco de su llamada Política Común de Seguridad y Defensa en países como Mali o Níger, a la vez que ha ofrecido un respaldo directo y masivo a nuevos actores regionales como el G5 Sahel, contribuyendo así a la proliferación de iniciativas militares impulsadas por diferentes actores globales que han convertido esta región en un espacio cada vez más militarizado y securitizado. El artículo analiza el contexto y las características de esta estrategia, considerando que escenifican un giro sustancial del papel tradicionalmente más normativo de la UE en el continente africano a una estrategia mucho más “pragmática”. Se argumenta que este cambio no responde a una única lógica sino a factores de diferente naturaleza y, a su vez, que presenta múltiples problemas, implicaciones y dilemas para la agenda europea en África en el corto, medio y largo plazo.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Militarization, and G5
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sahel

62. El Papel de un Reino Unido Post-brexit y su Nuevo Rol en el Africa Subsahariana

Author:
Juan Ramón Alvarez Cobelas
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Los políticos británicos del Reino Unido tras el ajustado triunfo en el Brexit prometieron a su opinión pública y a los dirigentes africanos que les quisieron oir, que una vez liberados del yugo político-económico que imponía la Unión Europea, las relaciones entre el mismo Reino Unido y los Estados africanos se abriría una nueva era de prosperidad mutua entre el mismo Reino Unido y el África subsahariana hasta el punto de convertirse en unas relaciones de igual a igual .El artículo trata de demostrar que ha ocurrido justamente lo contrario. El artículo examina los diferentes instrumentos de “cooperación” bien unilaterales, bien colectivos, por ejemplo, el “Compact with Africa, para llegar a la conclusión que los británcos perpetúan un cierto neocolonialismo maquillado.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, and Sub-Saharan Africa

63. Estados Unidos y África. Historia de una no-política

Author:
Pablo Rey-García and Pedro Rivas Nieto
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
En este artículo se estudian las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y África, desde los puntos de vista económico, político y de seguridad. Son, estos tres campos, interdependientes, pero a la vez enormemente dinámicos, tanto por la inercia política estadounidense, como por los condicionantes propios de África (déficit en desarrollo, pobreza, inseguridad o inestabilidad política) como por el contexto internacional. En este último aspecto, cobra especial relevancia la invasión rusa de Ucrania o la emergencia de la ambición militar China, pues ambos países compiten con Estados Unidos por tener una mejor posición en el continente africano.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, National Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Asia, North America, Sahel, United States of America, and Horn of Africa

64. Rusia en África. Nuevas dinámicas desde el Kremlin

Author:
Sebastián Ruiz-Cabrera
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Hace menos de una década, el continente africano era prácticamente la última prioridad de la política exterior de Rusia. Atrás quedaron las décadas doradas en las que el peso de la URSS se hacía notar en niveles como la ideología, las infraestructuras, la economía, la política o el sector educativo. Ahora bien, ante el creciente aislamiento internacional, Rusia vuelve a apostar por el apoyo del continente mientras Occidente mira con preocupación tales esfuerzos. En 2019 tuvo lugar en Sochi (Rusia) el primer foro económico entre la potencia dirigida por Putin y África, un foro en el que se definieron las líneas maestras en política exterior del Kremlin. Era un claro anuncio: Rusia estaba de vuelta en el continente africano después de una larga ausencia, en concreto desde la disolución de la Unión Soviética en 1991. El artículo analiza si su presencia en África es una presencia tan alarmista como se presenta por la Unión Europea o la Casa Blanca.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Infrastructure, Neoimperialism, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and Soviet Union

65. China en África: Objetivos, instrumentos e implicaciones estratégicas

Author:
Fernando Delage
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Desde el fin de la Guerra Fría, cuatro grandes prioridades definieron la estrategia de la República Popular China hacia África: el acceso a recursos naturales y materias primas; la consecución de mercados para sus exportaciones de manufacturas; la obtención de apoyo a sus objetivos políticos; y la consolidación de un estatus como líder del mundo en desarrollo. A partir de la primera década del siglo XXI China se ha convertido asimismo en un importante socio financiero y en impulsor del desarrollo de infraestructuras en el continente, a la vez que ha adquirido una creciente presencia militar. La relación multidimensional construida por la China de Xi Jinping con África forma parte integral de su estrategia de ascenso global, con implicaciones económicas y geopolíticas que han atraído la atención de las restantes potencias.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Globalization, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Xi Jinping, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa and China

66. África: Competencia y sustitución en un entorno estratégico de rivalidad. Introducción al número especial

Author:
María Ángeles Alaminos and Antonio Marquina
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este número especial de la Revista UNISCI se centra en la rivalidad creciente entre Estados existente en África y pretende ofrecer una visión comprehensiva del papel de distintos actores internacionales estatales en el continente africano, abarcando tanto el rol de las antiguas potencias coloniales, como la expansión creciente de China y el auge de la presencia e intervención de nuevos actores estatales con intereses políticos y económicos en el continente.
Topic:
European Union, State Actors, Rivalry, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, France, Latin America, and United States of America

67. Research Report: Perspectives on Youth Engagement in Operationalizing Peace and Security at a National Level

Author:
Katrina Leclerc
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:
This research report summarizes findings of a rapid study of variations in the ways young people, ages 15-30, especially young women, are engaged in country-level planning on issues of peace and security across six country case studies: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Iraq (including the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, or the KRI), Jordan, Nigeria, the Philippines and Tunisia. The research findings provide a preliminary indication of some common concerns expressed by young people who are engaged in peace activism. These concerns include the ways government officials seek to engage youth in national peace and security initiatives and policy development. Particular attention was paid to how young women are encouraged to participate and the ways their specific concerns are addressed within youth-led peacebuilding organizations and networks, in both official Youth, Peace and Security (YPS) processes and by organizations involved in implementing the Women, Peace and Security Resolutions.
Topic:
Security, Youth, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Asia, Philippines, Nigeria, Jordan, Tunisia, and Democratic Republic of Congo

68. June 2022 Issue

Author:
Tara Candland, Ryan O'Farrell, Lauren Poole, Caleb Weiss, and Boaz Ganor
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Boaz Ganor looks at the lessons that should be learned from the spring 2022 terror wave in Israel. His analysis kicks off the “CTC-ICT Focus on Israel” series, a joint effort between the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC) and the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University in Israel. In the coming months, the series will examine the terrorist threat landscape in Israel and the lessons other countries can learn from Israel’s counterterrorism efforts. The two feature analysis articles focus on the foreign fighter problem set in Ukraine and the evolving linkages to far-right extremism of actors on both sides of the conflict. Kacper Rekawek finds that unlike in 2014, “the 2022 conflict has, for the most part, not energized Western right-wing extremists, nor persuaded them to travel. In what is for Ukrainians a war for national survival and a fight to secure a Western democratic future for the country, the allure of the far-right in Ukraine has dimmed. Ukrainian units with far-right histories are now deeply integrated into Ukraine’s armed forces and eschew foreign recruitment, and one of those units, the Azov Regiment, was decimated during the siege of Mariupol. Very few foreign right-wing extremists have been recruited into Ukraine’s International Legion. In fact, anecdotal evidence suggests most of the foreign fighters who have traveled this year to fight on the Ukrainian side are fighting to safeguard Ukraine’s future as a Western democracy.” Don Rassler examines key concerns and questions about the war in Ukraine that are relevant to counterterrorism practitioners. Continuing this month’s focus on the impact of nefarious Russian actions, Christopher Faulkner examines the activities in Africa of the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company closely tied to the Kremlin. He writes: “Wagner’s role in Africa poses a severe threat to the security and stability of African states as well as the strategic interests of the United States and allied nations.” Finally, Tara Candland, Ryan O’Farrell, Laren Poole, and Caleb Weiss assess the rising threat to Central Africa posed by the 2021 transformation of the Islamic State’s Congolese branch.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Democracy, Islamic State, Far Right, Wagner Group, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Palestine, and Central Africa

69. January 2022 Issue

Author:
Michael Knights, Alex Almeida, Don Rassler, Brian Fishman, and Amira Jadoon
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Notwithstanding a night attack that killed 11 Iraqi soldiers on an army base in the Iraqi province of Diyala earlier this month, the Islamic State is at its lowest ebb in Iraq in many years, according to new data published by Michael Knights and Alex Almeida in this month’s feature article. They write that “a comprehensive analysis of attack metrics shows an insurgency that has deteriorated in both the quality of its operations and overall volume of attack activity, which has fallen to its lowest point since 2003. The Islamic State is increasingly isolated from the population, confined to remote rural backwaters controlled by Iraq’s less effective armed forces and militias, and lacks reach into urban centers.” They note that “the key analytical quandary that emerges from this picture is whether the downtrend marks the onset of an enduring decline for the group, or if the Islamic State is merely lying low while laying the groundwork for its survival as a generational insurgency.” In this month’s interview, Amy Zegart speaks to Brian Fishman and Don Rassler about her soon-to-be published book Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence. In the interview, she calls for the creation in the United States of a dedicated open-source intelligence agency because “OSINT will never get the priority or resources the nation needs without its own agency.” Amira Jadoon, Abdul Sayed, and Andrew Mines assess the threat trajectory of Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. They assess that “given the absence of multilateral counterterrorism pressure, the Taliban’s limited capacity to govern, and a worsening humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, ISK now finds itself perhaps in the most permissive environment yet to rebuild, rally, and expand.” Drawing on extensive fieldwork, including interviews with bandits and jihadi defectors, James Barnett, Murtala Ahmed Rufa’i, and Abdulaziz Abdulaziz examine the nexus between Nigeria’s bandits and jihadi organizations in northwestern Nigeria. They find that despite widespread fears bandits and jihadis would find common cause, there has been infrequent cooperation between them because they have conflicting approaches in their treatment of local inhabitants and because the more powerful bandits feel they have little to gain from working with the jihadis.
Topic:
Crime, Insurgency, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, and Nigeria

70. AQIM’s Imperial Playbook: Understanding al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb’s Expansion into West Africa

Author:
Caleb Weiss
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In 2021, the United Nations noted the newfound threats of the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), a branch of al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), that extended into Burkina Faso and the Ivory Coast, stretching farther yet into Ghana, Togo, and Benin. Had an observer in 2006 had this information presented to them, they might have scarcely believed it. That year, in which AQIM was formed, the group was a thoroughly North African organization and based primarily in Algeria. Fast forward 15 years, how did AQIM end up nearly 1,300 miles away, now posing immediate threats in the states of littoral West Africa? Relying on a combination of primary source jihadi propaganda and historical research, this report argues that over the past 30 years, al-Qa`ida and its branches and allies in North and West Africa have followed what this report calls “al- Qa`ida’s Imperial Playbook,” as they have sought to expand their areas of influence southward. Al-Qa`ida’s “playbook,” this report shows, is composed of five fundamental tactics: befriending or creating militant groups operating in the midst of conflict; integrating themselves into communities where those militants exist; exploiting grievances of those communities to gain sympathy; addressing internal or external dissent either passively or aggressively; and looking toward new theaters once their base is solidified. Al-Qa`ida has subsequently utilized this playbook to expand southward from its Algeria base in five distinct historical periods: from 1992- 1998; 1998-2006; 2006-2012; 2013-2017; and 2017-present. The report concludes that al-Qa`ida and its affiliates in northern and western Africa are likely to continue to use this playbook as they continue their contemporary expansion into West Africa.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, and History
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

71. Assessing U.S. Counterterrorism in Africa, 2001-2021: Summary Document of CTC’s Africa Regional Workshop

Author:
Jason Warner, Julia Broomer, and Stephanie Lizzo
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
On October 21, 2021, the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC) at West Point, as part of the Recrudescence Project (a research collaboration with the Middle East Institute and the Center on National Security at Fordham Law), hosted a closed-door workshop with 18 top observers of U.S.-Africa policy from across government, academia, think-tanks, and the private sector. The goal of CTC’s Africa Regional Workshop was to assess the successes and challenges of U.S. policy to address terrorism by violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and to assist in counterterrorism (CT) efforts on the African continent over the past 20 years (2001-2021), and to consider how these approaches might be improved in the future. This anonymized summary document offers an overview of the findings from that workshop. Three topics of concern are the focus of this summary: assessments of U.S. kinetic counterterrorism engagement in Africa; assessments of U.S. non-kinetic counterterrorism engagement in Africa; and the future of U.S.-Africa policy beyond a counterterrorism lens.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Violent Extremism, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

72. Barriers to Effective Whistleblowing in Botswana: Lessons from the Construction Industry

Author:
Marumo Omotoye
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Adopting Botswana’s construction industry as a case study, this Policy Brief examines key barriers to effective whistleblowing in Botswana. Data were drawn from 117 construction firms and interviews with regulators of this sector. Despite the enactment of the Whistleblowing Act 2016, the study finds the following key barriers to effective whistleblowing: (i) fear of retaliation or punishment, (ii) fear of job loss, (iii) absence of organisational whistleblowing policies, (iv) lack of incentive to report, (v) lack of education on whistleblowing, and (vi) insufficient action and follow-up on disclosures by authorities. From a policy perspective, there is a need to strengthen the existing legal protection offered to whistleblowers, their families and associates to ensure they are not subject to harm, retaliation or victimisation. There is also a need to increase levels of education and awareness on whistleblowing in general, and the Whistleblowing Act 2016 in particular.
Topic:
Corruption, Regulation, Whistle Blowing, and Construction
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

73. Survivor-Centred Justice for Gender-Based Violence in Complex Situations

Author:
The George Washington University The Global Women's Institute (GWI)
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
The Global Women's Institute (GWI), The George Washington University
Abstract:
The report Survivor-Centred Justice for Gender-Based Violence in Complex Situations is the result of new research conducted by IDLO, in partnership with the Global Women’s Institute at George Washington University, in six countries across the globe with the aim to identify approaches that centre survivors in all efforts to address gender-based violence (GBV) in complex situations. The report is informed by country case studies in Afghanistan, Honduras, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, South Sudan, and Tunisia, to provide different perspectives of complexity in accessing justice and an analysis of diverse justice mechanisms dealing with GBV in situations of conflict, organized crime, climate disasters, and health emergencies, often intersecting with contexts of legal pluralism and political transition. Research findings show that, in order to be effective, measures and programmes aimed at ensuring access to justice for GBV survivors need to be responsive to women’s specific needs and vulnerabilities, as well as relevant to contextual challenges, while firmly anchored in international gender equality and human rights legal obligations.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Gender Based Violence, Justice, and Group Survival
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, Middle East, Asia, Philippines, Central America, North America, Tunisia, Honduras, South Sudan, and Papua New Guinea

74. Gearing Up the Fight Against Impunity: Dedicated Investigative and Prosecutorial Capacities

Author:
Howard Varney and Katarzyna Zdunczky
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:
Holding perpetrators to account for the worst crimes known to humanity is one of the most important responsibilities of the community of nations in the 21st century. Notwithstanding the appalling nature of atrocity crimes, most perpetrators do not face justice. Specialized investigative and prosecutorial units, however, offer a ray of hope in this otherwise bleak justice landscape. Such units now operate in several countries around the world, including Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, France, and Germany. This report, which was prepared jointly by ICTJ and the Foundation for Human Rights emerges from efforts to persuade the South African government to create a dedicated capacity to investigate and prosecute apartheid-era crimes, which have been long neglected. The report considers ways of gearing up the fight against impunity for serious international crimes and crimes of the past. It compares countries that leave atrocity crimes to the general administration of justice and those that adopt a specialized or dedicated approach. Specialized prosecutorial and investigative capacities are entities that focus exclusively on a particular category of crimes. While specialized units vary in size, structure, staffing, and operations, innovations such as prosecution-led investigations and bringing multi-disciplinary skills under one roof, make them considerably more effective than a generalized approach. The report provides a high-level audit of specialized units in 23 countries. It considers different models of domestic dedicated investigative and prosecutorial approaches and analyses their track records. Eleven case studies contrast countries with specialized units and those without. The report examines certain features that characterize specialized units, including their structure, composition, operations, and relationships with civil society and other entities. It analyzes the main challenges faced by the units including political dynamics, accessing evidence, and victim support. The report includes an overview of recent efforts by various specialized units to deliver criminal accountability for serious crimes committed in Syria. It concludes with recommendations on how to make specialized units more effective.
Topic:
International Law, Reform, Criminal Justice, Accountability, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Europe, Middle East, Argentina, South America, Balkans, North Africa, Syria, Tunisia, Peru, and South Sudan

75. Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The war with Al-Shabaab’s Islamist insurgency has dragged on for fifteen years. As it reviews its options, Somalia’s new government should look into what room there might be for dialogue with the group. The alternative is more fighting with no end in sight.
Topic:
Insurgency, Governance, Peace, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

76. Managing Vigilantism in Nigeria: A Near-term Necessity

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Vigilantes have become so important to protecting the Nigerian public that for now the country has little choice but to rely on them. Yet there are dangers. Authorities should better regulate these groups, while working to restore citizens’ trust in the police.
Topic:
Governance, Conflict, Police, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

77. Saïed’s Tunisia: Promoting Dialogue and Fixing the Economy to Ease Tensions

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Political tensions fuelled by President Saïed’s power grab and subsequent policies risk sending a crisis-ridden Tunisia over the edge. Saïed should organise a national dialogue and return to a negotiated constitutional order. In response, international partners should offer new economic perspectives for the country.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Peace, Strategic Interests, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

78. Rebels, Victims, Peacebuilders: Women in Cameroon’s Anglophone Conflict

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Years of fighting between separatists and the state in Cameroon have hit women hard, uprooting hundreds of thousands. The government and external partners should step up aid for the displaced. Donors should start planning now for including women activists in future peace talks.
Topic:
Women, Conflict, Peace, Victims, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

79. ABCs of the IFIs: The African Development Fund’s 16th Replenishment

Author:
Jocilyn Estes and Erin Collinson
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Many African countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, continue to grapple with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic while simultaneously confronting the challenges posed by slowing global growth, private capital outflows, debt distress, and the impacts of climate change. An estimated 55 million people on the continent have been pushed into extreme poverty since the onset of the pandemic. This devastating trend has been exacerbated by the ripple effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—supply chain disruptions, tightening fiscal space, and growing pressure on the cost of food, fuel, and fertilizer. International financial support for the continent has fallen woefully short of levels required to prevent the current crisis from derailing long-term development. The African Development Bank (AfDB) is the largest regional multilateral development finance institution on the continent. It provides critical financial support to countries across the region, including investment in vital infrastructure projects. The African Development Fund (AfDF) is the Bank’s concessional window, providing financing in the form of grants and concessional loans to resource-constrained governments responding to the growing challenges on the continent, including gaps in critical infrastructure and rising debt burdens. Amid ongoing and overlapping global emergencies, the stakes for the AfDF’s upcoming replenishment could hardly be higher. The AfDF is making the case to donors—who will come together later this year for a final meeting of the AfDF’s 16th replenishment (AfDF-16)—that the Fund needs substantial new resources to continue to support African people, businesses, and governments and make up lost ground in the fight against poverty. An ambitious 16th replenishment—coupled with policy and governance reform commitments—presents an opportunity for donors, including the United States, to complement long-standing investments in regional growth and infrastructure, offer a sustainable alternative to non-concessional Chinese lending, and make headway on the long road to economic recovery from the pandemic and worsening food security crisis.
Topic:
Development, Investment, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa

80. The IMF, Africa, and Climate Change—Making Sense of an Implausible Trilogy

Author:
Daniel Citrin and Daouda Sembene
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Evidence suggests that Africa is the most vulnerable continent to climate change. While African countries contribute relatively little to global emissions, they remain significantly vulnerable to the devastating economic effects of this phenomenon. This paper reviews IMF activities and explores how best the IMF could support efforts by African countries to cope with macroeconomic policy and structural challenges associated with climate change. To this end, while recognizing the relative significance of the overall IMF contribution to addressing this global challenge, we make several recommendations about potential ways to strengthen the role of IMF surveillance, capacity development and financing. First, IMF staff should ensure that policy advice in the context of global, regional and country surveillance fit specific circumstances and institutional capacity of African countries as well as their economic vulnerabilities to climate change. To enable timely response to climate-related crises, staff teams should also be prepared to provide advice on a flexible basis, without being tied to formal periodic work schedules. Additionally, the IMF could facilitate adaptation and mitigation by engaging in intensive outreach activities about the economic impact of climate change. Second, there is merit in developing comprehensive IMF capacity development strategies in close collaboration with the authorities in climate-vulnerable countries. For effective implementation, the IMF will need to identify and actively seek adequate financing for capacity development activities on climate issues. Finally, while the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) is a welcome addition to the IMF toolkit and represents a potentially significant source of financing for some sub-Saharan African countries, specific amendments could be considered notably with a view to limiting the potential cost for low-income borrowers to access its resources. Moreover, successful operationalization of the RST hinges on careful and flexible design of conditionality and how programs under the new facility will be linked to concurrent upper-credit tranche programs.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:
Africa

81. Recommendations for US-Africa Space Cooperation and Development

Author:
Rose Croshier
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The United States, a leader in space exploration and innovation, has a unique opportunity to establish enduring diplomatic, commercial, and security ties with African nations through space cooperation—with the potential to yield substantial development benefits. The U.S. space sector is robust, an area of comparative strength vis-à-vis Europe, Russia, and China. By driving space cooperation, the U.S. can reinforce the rules-based order as articulated in international agreements like the Artemis Accords. Expanded space capabilities can also support the achievement of several of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which range from improving data-driven governance to closing the global digital gap. U.S. policymakers have an opportunity to implement a collaborative approach with emerging African space actors both to grow a peaceful and law-abiding community in space and to benefit from Africa's contributions to the global space ecosystem. Space capability can also serve a crucial infrastructure role, yielding similar benefits to “traditional” infrastructure—including facilitating access to 5G connectivity through low orbit satellites and addressing clean water and food security needs through remote sensing and satellite communications.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Space, and Territory
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

82. Social Protection in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from South Africa

Author:
Lena Gronbach, Jeremy Seekings, and Vayda Megannon
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
South Africa responded to the stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown using a combination of existing social protection programmes, unemployment insurance, and additional measures to support those most affected. This paper reviews policies and implementation with the objective of highlighting lessons for the global community, including on the use of digital mechanisms. The government adopted a two-pronged and largely cash-based approach: unemployment benefits for formal sector workers and cash transfers to vulnerable individuals, informal workers, and beneficiaries of existing grants. Top-up payments for existing grants were rolled out efficiently; the new Special Relief of Distress (SRD) grant posed challenges but ultimately succeeded in reaching over six million previously uncovered beneficiaries. It may even become a permanent feature of South Africa’s social protection system. Overall, the government reached over 30 million South Africans with cash-based relief measures. A distinctive feature of cash-based emergency relief was the use of digital technologies, especially in the application and verification process for the new SRD grant. The payment system, however, relied heavily on manual cash disbursements, thus failing to reflect the adoption of innovative digital technologies observed in many other African countries.
Topic:
Security, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

83. Stuck Near Ten Billion: Public-Private Infrastructure Finance in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Nancy Lee and Mauricio Cardenas Gonzalez
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Many stress the critical role of the private sector in filling yawning sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) infrastructure finance gaps, only widened by the pandemic. Our paper looks in detail at financially closed (construction-ready) transactions with private participation in SSA from 2007-2020. Despite the “billions to trillions” vision, we find no sustained upward trends for such transactions in volumes of total finance, multilateral development bank (MDB) finance, private finance, the share or volume of local private finance, participation by international institutional investors, or finance from bilateral development finance institutions (DFIs). External finance sources were larger than local sources, with Chinese DFIs dominant and the US DFI a marginal actor. Among MDBs, the African Development Bank provided the most finance cumulatively. Investment in renewable energy outpaced investment in fossil fuel infrastructure, but MDBs continued to make significant fossil fuel investments. Investment in water and social infrastructure remains about 5 percent of the total. Policy implications include: the urgent need for greater MDB efforts to use their broad toolkits to catalyze more private infrastructure finance, including from local sources and in social sectors; the case for building on the African Development Bank’s advantages; the importance of growing the US Development Finance Corporation’s efforts; and the strong logic for more collaboration among infrastructure finance providers to SSA, including China, with MDBs providing not only finance but also fora for collaboration and support for the policy and institutional reforms that build sustainability and reduce risk for all actors.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Finance, Private Sector, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
Africa

84. Bölünmüş Toplumlarda Anayasa Yapımı: Güney Afrika Deneyimi (Constitution-Making Processes in Divided Societies: The South African Experience)

Author:
Sevtap Yokuş
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Bölünmüş toplumlarda anayasa yapım süreçleri, demokratik anayasa bakımından çok daha büyük önem taşır. Anayasal düzenlemeler ve tercihler kadar anayasa yapım yöntemleri de demokratik anayasa açısından belirleyicidirler. Demokratik anayasa yapımı süreçleri, toplumun bütün kesimlerinin katılımına açık olarak yürütülür. Katılımcı anayasa yapım örneklerinden en orijinal ve en çarpıcı olanı, Güney Afrika Anayasası inşa sürecidir. Bu süreç, ayrımcı Apartheid rejiminden demokrasiye geçişi sağladı. Kurucu Meclis, Anayasa inşa sürecini güvenilir kılmak amacıyla, şeffaflık ve katılımcılık ilkelerini sürece hâkim kılmaya çalıştı. Güney Afrika anayasa yapım süreci, başarılı bir demokratikleşme örneğidir. Güney Afrika deneyimi, çatışma çözümünde anayasa yapım yönteminin ne denli belirleyici olduğunu göstermesi bakımından da önemlidir.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Constitution, Participation, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

85. Education, Training and Capacity Building in the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) 2021: Multilateral and Bilateral Ambitions Twenty Years On

Author:
Kenneth King
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The latest Forum for China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) took place in Dakar, Senegal in November 2021. Among the huge range of pledges and agreements, one of the most extensive was capacity building through scholarships, targeted training and people-to-people exchanges. In this Occasional Paper, Kenneth King analyses China’s pledges not just in the sphere of formal education, but across the many different sectors of China’s collaboration with Africa for the next three years. While the impact of COVID-19 can be seen in the reduction of some face-to-face opportunities in China, the extent of what is agreed to be implemented in Africa remains significant. Though these ambitious promises are agreed multilaterally with the whole of Africa, they are delivered bilaterally across the continent in more than fifty different country settings, reflecting how the Africa-China relationship remains strong after two decades of growing engagement.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Education, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Multilateralism, Training, and Capacity Building
Political Geography:
Africa and China

86. The Economic Complexity of Namibia: A Roadmap for Productive Diversification

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, Douglas Barrios, Nikita Taniparti, Jorge Tudela Pye, and Jessie Lu
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
After a large growth acceleration within the context of the commodity super cycle (2000- 2015), Namibia has been grappling with three interrelated challenges: economic growth, fiscal sustainability, and inclusion. Accelerating technological progress and enhancing Namibia’s knowhow agglomeration is crucial to the process of fostering new engines of growth that will deliver progress across the three targets. Using net exports data at the four-digit level, we estimate the economic complexity of Namibia – a measure of knowhow agglomeration – vis-à-vis its peers. Our results suggest that Namibia’s economy is relatively less complex and attractive opportunities to diversify tend to be more distant. Based on economic complexity metrics, we define a place-specific path for productive diversification, identifying industries with high potential and providing inputs – related to their feasibility and attractiveness in Namibia – for further prioritization. Namibia’s path to structural transformation will likely be steeper than for most peers, calling for a more active policy stance geared towards progressive accumulation of productive capacities, well-targeted “long jumps”, and strengthening state capacity to sort out market failures associated with the process of self-discovery.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Economic Complexity, and Industry
Political Geography:
Africa and Namibia

87. Getting Real about Unknowns in Complex Policy Work

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
As with all public policy work, education policies are demanding. Policy workers need to ‘know’ a lot—about the problems they are addressing, the people who need to be engaged, the promises they can make in response, the context they are working in, and the processes they will follow to implement. Most policy workers answer questions about such issues within the structures of plan and control processes used to devise budgets and projects. These structures limit their knowledge gathering, organization and sense-making activities to up-front planning activities, and even though sophisticated tools like Theories of Change suggest planners ‘know’ all that is needed for policy success, they often do not. Policies are often fraught with ‘unknowns’ that cannot be captured in passive planning processes and thus repeatedly undermine even the best laid plans. Through a novel strategy that asks how much one knows about the answers to 25 essential policy questions, and an application to recent education policy interventions in Mozambique, this paper shows that it is possible to get real about unknowns in policy work. Just recognizing these unknowns exist—and understanding why they do and what kind of challenge they pose to policy workers—can help promote a more modest and realistic approach to doing complex policy work.
Topic:
Education, Government, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

88. A Growth Diagnostic of Namibia

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, Douglas Barrios, Nikita Taniparti, Jorge Tudela Pye, Jose Francisco Muci, and Jessie Lu
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
In the thirty years that have passed since independence, Namibia has been characterized by its over-reliance on its mineral resource wealth, procyclicality of macroeconomic policy, and large income disparities. After an initial decade marked by nation building and slow growth (1990-2000), the Namibian economy embarked on a rapid growth acceleration that lasted 15 years, within the context of the global commodity super cycle. Favorable terms of trade translated into an investment and export boom in the mining sector, which was amplified to the non-tradable sector of the economy through a significant public expenditure spree from 2008 onwards. Between 2000 and 2015 income and consumption per capita expanded at an average annual rate of 3.1%, poverty rates halved, and access to essential public goods expanded rapidly. As the commodity super cycle came to an end and the fiscal space was exhausted, Namibia experienced a significant reversal. Investment and exports plummeted, bringing GDP per capita to contract by 2.1% between 2015-2019. With debt-to-GDP ratios 3.5 times higher than those in 2008, the country embarked on a fiscal consolidation effort which brought the primary fiscal deficit from 6.8% of GDP in 2016 to 0.6% by March 2020. Along all these years, inequality has been endemic and is reflected across demographic characteristics and employment status. At present, a large majority of Namibians are unable to access well-paying formal sector jobs, as these tend to be particularly scarce outside of the public sector. Looking forward, the road to sustained inclusive growth and broad prosperity entails expanding the formal private labor market by diversifying the Namibian economy, while at the same time removing the barriers preventing Namibians from accessing these opportunities inherited from the apartheid.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Economic Growth, Inclusion, and Skills
Political Geography:
Africa and Namibia

89. Can Africa Compete in World Soccer?

Author:
Matt Andrews
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
In March 2021, the Confederation of African Football’s President, Patrice Motsepe, insisted that “An African team must win the World Cup in the near future.” This visionary statement is infused with hope—not just for an African World Cup victory but for a fuller future in which African men’s soccer competes with world soccer’s elite. This paper asks if there is any chance of this happening. It suggests a simple method to assess how a country competes as both a ‘participant’ and a ‘rival’ and uses this method to examine how Africa’s top countries compete in world soccer. This analysis points to a gap between such countries and the world’s best, which has grown in recent decades— even though some African countries do compete more over time. The paper concludes by suggesting that Africa’s hope of winning the World Cup is not impossible but demands more active work, focused particularly on ensuring top African countries compete with more high-quality competition more often. The conclusion also suggests that the research approach might be relevant beyond a study of African soccer. It could particularly help shed light on how well African countries compete (as participants and rivals) in the world economy.
Topic:
Sports, Economy, Soccer, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa

90. Democracy in Africa is Like a Flashlight without Batteries

Author:
Mark Wentling
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Promoting democracy has been a central pillar of U.S. foreign policy for decades. This has been true for the dozen U.S. missions in which I have served in Africa over the past half century. Unfortunately, my experiences have left me doubtful about the results achieved by the hundreds of millions of dollars the U.S. has invested to promote democracy in Africa. I arrived in 1970 as a U.S. Peace Corps Volunteer, West Africa. In my village, I learned that you obeyed the chief’s decisions no matter how illogical they might be. I also learned that it was considered impolite to criticize any of the chief’s decisions. Today it is still best to obey the chief, although he is now influenced by the central government. The overriding concern of the chief and his representative council of elders was to maintain a peaceful and stable environment, acknowledging that no progress could be achieved without stability. As central government influence increased, local leaders offered their support in return for new schools, water wells and health clinics. The goal of this tribute system of “patronage governance” was not democracy but justice, a concept embedded in the local culture while “democracy” was an imported notion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Democracy, and Memoir
Political Geography:
Africa and United States of America

91. America, You Better Believe That Africa Matters

Author:
Charles Ray
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
In the minds of most Americans and Europeans, the continent of Africa has long been seen as peripheral to world affairs, looked at either as a source of natural resources ripe for extraction or a place of poverty and violence requiring massive amounts of aid. This is a shortsighted and distorted view of a diverse continent and is long overdue for a reset. The truth is that Africa is home to some of the planet’s most strategic minerals and other resources, and that natural and manmade disasters plague the continent. It is far more diverse and dynamic than popular culture, mainstream media, and even many foreign policy makers portray it. For a lot of reasons, some of them existential, it is far from peripheral; it matters.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Africa and United States of America

92. Reframing U.S. Military Strategy Toward Africa

Author:
John Griswold
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
How can the U.S. military best support the achievement of national strategic objectives in Africa? While much of the foreign policy discourse since President Biden’s inauguration has focused on China’s growing military capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, curbing the effects of climate change, and the implications of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, scant attention has been paid to U.S. engagement in Africa. It is noteworthy that the Biden administration’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance (INSSG) mentions a continent of more than 1.3 billion people — whose population is expected to double by 2050 — in one paragraph out of 23 substantive pages...
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
Africa and United States of America

93. Turkish Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Spencer Cook, and Amal Soukkarieh
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Trade volume has soared and projects like the development of Sudan’s Suakin Port have drawn notice, but Ankara faces economic headwinds in its bid to keep the momentum going. Atraveler through today’s Africa might be surprised by frequent markers of a distant power: Turkey. Consider that in Somalia, “Istanbul” is now one of the most popular girls’ names and that Turkey’s largest embassy in the world is located in Mogadishu. In the tiny coastal nation of Guinea-Bissau, Ankara has announced a new embassy, its forty-fourth on the continent. Meanwhile, state-owned Turkish Airlines now flies to sixty-one African destinations, compared to just a handful when Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) government began its Africa outreach two decades ago. Trade volume has soared as well, with projects like Turkey’s proposed $4 billion development of Sudan’s Suakin Port drawing headlines­—and consternation from rivals in the Gulf. In this illuminating Policy Note, Soner Cagaptay, Spencer Cook, and Amal Soukkarieh survey Ankara’s robust activity in sub-Saharan Africa, where dynamics are shifting, and not always to Turkey’s advantage. Amid an economic swoon at home, Ankara is seeking improved ties with Middle East states and could be receptive to cooperating with Washington in Africa as part of the competition against other great powers, namely, China.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, and Sub-Saharan Africa

94. Turkey's Growing Role as a Security Actor in Somalia: Dynamics and Motivations

Author:
Abdurrahim Siradag
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
Somalia has a special place in the foreign policy of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which has been in power since November 2002. Turkey's relations with Somalia started to develop after the official visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Somalia on 19 August 2011, who was the prime minister at that time, to support Somalis affected by severe drought and civil war. After 2011, Turkey launched one of the largest humanitarian aid campaigns to Somalia. Turkey has not only developed a soft power policy in Somalia but also started to implement a hard power policy. In this respect, Turkey has been training hundreds of Somali soldiers and police in both Ankara and Mogadishu since 2012. At the same time, Turkey opened its largest military base abroad in Somalia in 2017. This research explores the reasons and dynamics behind Turkey's deepening of its security policy in Somalia and sheds light on what Turkey's security policy means for Somalia. The research argues that there is a combination of factors driving Turkey's security policy towards Somalia, including socio-cultural, economic, and geopolitical. This study examines Turkey's security policy with a holistic approach, using conceptual and theoretical perspectives.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Soft Power, and AKP
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Middle East, and Somalia

95. Harnessing Informal Social Safety Nets for Resilience and Development

Author:
Merry Fitzpatrick, Hassan Alattar Satti, Sarra Beheiry, and Elizabeth Stites
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
People turn to each other to get through difficult times, to celebrate life events, or simply to ease daily living. Humanitarian assistance usually provides support only when there are large-scale crises that affect whole populations. What do people do when humanitarian assistance is not provided, when only one or a few households are affected? And when humanitarian assistance is provided, how does it affect these systems of mutual support? Established systems of mutual support (informal social safety nets) evolve to organize reciprocal support and make that support more predictable. This report examines the nature of these mutual support systems in selected communities in North and South Darfur, Sudan. Through research conducted in these communities, we explore how a full menu of these social safety nets operate, the functions they serve, who benefits, and the obligations on community members. The informal social safety nets (SSNs) identified in this study varied somewhat from one community to another, but were largely the same across all communities, regardless of state or livelihood specialization. These SSNs operate as coherent webs that support social connections and norms, providing social and practical benefits as well as immediate emergency assistance when needed. SSNs depend on relationships and trust to function and are governed by shared norms. We have seen that SSNs can also restore broken trust and violated norms. The conflict in Darfur violated norms and disrupted many relationships, and therefore undermined the SSNs that depended on them. However, some SSNs have played important roles in reconciliation.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Resilience, and Safety Net
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

96. Measuring the Resilience of Livelihoods in Darfur: The Income Streams Index

Author:
Merry Fitzpatrick and Hassan Alattar Satti
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Resilience is the recognition that people are active agents in their own survival in the face of crises. Understanding the dynamics of how households in crisis-prone contexts plan for and respond to crises can help structure policy, development, and humanitarian activities to support their strategies, reducing the impact of crises, speeding recovery, and reducing the amount of humanitarian assistance required. A resilience indicator that is both quantitative and descriptive is needed to see how crises affect households and the livelihoods through which they meet their needs. Previously proposed measures either use proxies of outcomes or combinations of economic and wealth measurements, but none measure livelihoods themselves in real-time. This report uses an innovative real-time index, the Income Streams Index (ISI), to teach us how households in South, West, and North Darfur states in Sudan managed and adapted their livelihood activities in the face of multiple shocks of various types and sizes over a three-year period (2018 to 2021).
Topic:
Development, Resilience, Livelihoods, and Structuralism
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

97. Market Access and Quality Critical for Food Security in Periods of Stress

Author:
Anastasia Marshak
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
This briefing paper describes how market access is associated with household food security and dietary diversity in the Karamoja region of Uganda in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, according to both the study’s primary data and secondary data, households experienced significantly worse conflict, climate, and economic shocks compared with 2019. These shocks in 2018 led to a decline in livestock production, increase in food prices, and declines in terms of trade. While the experience of shocks was worse according to many indicators in 2018, household food security and , dietary diversity data remained relatively similar across the two years. The data indicate that greater use of markets during the more stressful 2018 year might have mitigated the expected, but not observed reduction in food security. Better market quality and access was associated with using fewer short-term coping strategies and better food security and dietary diversity, but only in 2018, when households experienced more shocks. Thus, households are likely to be more reliant on markets during periods of greater stress. This analysis is part of the United States Agency for International Development/Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/BHA)-funded Apolou Activity, a consortium led by Mercy Corps. It was designed to help Mercy Corps and other national and international actors to address youth’s vulnerability and opportunities in the Karamoja sub-region. The findings are part of a four-year study carried out in four districts of the Karamoja sub-region. The analysis and findings in this report focus on the first and second round of quantitative data from November/December 2018 and 2019. The data come from a longitudinal two-stage randomized cluster sample of approximately 500 households across 52 villages. The same respondents were interviewed across both years.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Food, Children, Resilience, and Household
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

98. Strengthening Sahelian Counterinsurgency Strategy

Author:
Michael Shurkin
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Adapting Sahelian force structures to lighter, more mobile, and integrated units will better support the population-centric COIN practices needed to reverse the escalating trajectory of violent extremist attacks.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Counterinsurgency, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sahel

99. The social and economic cost of Egypt's prison system

Author:
Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights Legal Researcher and Lawyer
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Legal scholars have long been concerned with how to deter crime and limit its spread. For a long time, imprisonment has been used as a tool to serve these two purposes. On one hand, prisons function as a means to deprive inmates of their liberty and deter public and private crime. On the other hand, they also seek to reform convicts in a way that facilitates their reintegration into society by adopting appropriate rehabilitation programs for each prisoner.1 Despite the general deterrent impact of imprisonment, overreliance on such penalties can also have negative consequences – particularly when prisons fail to fulfil the rehabilitation component of their role. Prisons then risk turning into a hotbed that enables even more dangerous criminal behavior. As such, some legal scholars believe that penalties that deprive individuals of their liberties are no longer considered the best or only means to create more stable and secure societies, nor to reduce crime rates.
Topic:
Crime, Law, Legal Theory, and Legal Sector
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, and MENA

100. Algeria’s social support policy: Economic costs and the need for reform

Author:
Hami Hassan
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
With the ratification of the 2022 budget in Algeria, the issue of budget allocations for social support and social benefits has resurfaced once again. This paper attempts to understand the repercussions of state intervention in economic affairs, and the historical and ideological underpinnings of the welfare state in Algeria as a rentier state based on the nationalization of all economic relations in crisis political contexts, the effects of which extended to the state’s relationship with society and the relations of production within it.
Topic:
Economics, Reform, Finance, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Africa and Algeria