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702. Aimless Rivalry: The Futility of US–China Competition in the Middle East
- Author:
- Jon Hoffman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Fear in Washington over China’s expanding regional presence is quickly becoming a new rationale for an expansive US foreign policy in the Middle East. But China remains an opportunistic actor in the Middle East, driven by practical needs, not by aspirations to dominate the region. Beijing lacks the ability and desire to assume a dominant position in the Middle East, and its ability to jeopardize US regional interests is limited.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
703. Net assessments for Australia
- Author:
- Andrew Carr
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Established in 2023 in the Australian Department of Defence, net assessments will play an increasingly important role in shaping the future of the Australian Defence Force, disciplining long-term capability decisions to a series of key scenarios of concern. With Australia’s security requirements ranging across many more domains — and dependent on careful analysis of trends and networks beyond its shores — four additional Directorates of Net Assessment should be established, in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the Department of Home Affairs, Treasury, and the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet. Net assessments will help Ministers better understand key strategic problems as well as potential conflict scenarios and outcomes, assisting them to make effective decisions to improve Australia’s competitive position and prepare the nation for any conflict in its region.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Armed Forces, Training, and Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Australia
704. Trapped in debt: China’s role in Laos’ economic crisis
- Author:
- Keith Barney, Roland Rajah, and Mariza Cooray
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Laos is trapped in a severe debt crisis with no resolution in sight, threatening a decade of economic and social malaise. Recent global shocks were key triggers. Yet a crisis was almost inevitable, driven by poor planning and over-investment in the domestic energy sector, financed mostly by Chinese loans and exacerbated by broader fiscal and governance problems. Exiting the crisis will require China to provide substantial debt relief. However, the politics appear unfavourable, as neither side wants to admit failure and accept the consequences. Whether by design or neglect, China has created a debt trap in Laos. The crisis illustrates some of the most troubling pathologies of Chinese lending under the Belt and Road Initiative, and its unwillingness to provide sufficient debt relief, despite the clear-cut need.
- Topic:
- Debt, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Crisis, and Energy Sector
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Laos
705. Hedging bets: Southeast Asia’s approach to China’s aid
- Author:
- Alexandre Dayant and Grace Stanhope
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Southeast Asian states with acute development needs and constrained access to development financing — Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar — are the most reliant on China. By contrast, lower-middle income countries with more diversified foreign relations — the Philippines and Vietnam — have become far more restrained in accepting Chinese largesse over the last decade. Upper-middle income countries with only moderate development needs — Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand — appear to be playing the field of development partners the most opportunistically and politically. Amid weakening demand for Chinese development financing in Southeast Asia, Beijing is recalibrating its offering, transitioning to fewer, smaller, and more targeted projects. In 2022, China implemented $3 billion in development financing in the region, a sharp drop from more than $9 billion in 2015. However, Southeast Asia’s success in reshaping their development ties with China could be undone if Western cuts to development budgets lead to a drastic reduction in financing to the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, and Economic Development
- Political Geography:
- China, Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia, Southeast Asia, Laos, and Myanmar
706. The future of Indonesia’s green industrial policy
- Author:
- Robert Walker and Hilman Palaon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Indonesia now supplies more than half of the world’s nickel. Under its green industrial policy, it has also become a leading destination for foreign investment in critical minerals, electric vehicles (EVs), and the battery supply chain. While this strategy has offered some concentrated economic gains, rapid industry expansion has also been costly. Nickel processing has had damaging environmental, labour, and governance impacts, and has increased reliance on Chinese investment, technology, and demand, which presents vulnerabilities. Indonesia can strengthen its industrial policy by improving environmental and labour standards in the nickel industry, fostering a more competitive and export-oriented EV industry, and diversifying trade and investment partners.
- Topic:
- Foreign Direct Investment, Industry, Green Economy, Nickel, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- China, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia
707. Global Futures Bulletin: The BRICS and the Decarbonization and Biodiversity Protection Challenges
- Author:
- Igarapé Institute
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Igarapé Institute
- Abstract:
- The world faces an unprecedented convergence of environmental crises – climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss – that collectively threaten the planet’s ecological balance and humanity’s future. Reversing the Triple Planetary Crisis necessitates urgent and coordinated action across all sectors and countries, accelerating the transition to low-carbon economies while protecting biodiversity are key challenges for the coming years. Countries that have joined the BRICS in its inception (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are increasingly an important geopolitical force in current global politics, and their individual and collective action is key to the success of concerted global action. The group’s recent expansion – BRICS+ includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Indonesia joining in 2025 and Saudi Arabia finally formalizing its membership – offers an opportunity to boost the role of their New Development Bank (NDB) in bridging climate, biodiversity, and development finance, and aim for greater policy coherence for concerted global action across these agendas. Combined, BRICS countries are not only biodiversity and energy-rich but also contribute to a large share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This Strategic Paper examines the role of the expanded BRICS+ and explores whether and how this “mini-multilateral” grouping, with its considerable human and technological capacity, can address two major global challenges: accelerating decarbonization and protecting biological diversity. The discussion is framed around the opportunities and challenges faced by the member countries to increase their ambitions and become leading voices in these agendas – not only for BRICS countries (some of which are among the most biodiverse in the world) but also for the wider international community. Without a strong commitment by BRICS countries (individually and as a group) the world will fail to accelerate action on decarbonization and biodiversity protection.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Pollution, BRICS, Decarbonization, Biodiversity, and Minilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, South Africa, Brazil, and Global Focus
708. Somali Federal and State Interior Ministries: How to Enable Popular Participation in Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- After years of conflict and instability, Somalia is entering a period where transitional justice is possible. Three decades of experience in Africa shows that transitional justice processes are more likely to be effective if they are rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. While the Somali government has not yet launched a truth commission, prosecutions, reparations or other formal mechanisms usually associated with dealing with the past, different types of measures have emerged in the country that are precursors to – or even themselves forms of – transitional justice. Drawing lessons from formal, state-led measures like the National Reconciliation Framework and non-formal, civil society-led measures like the Peace and Development Forum, this policy brief provides actionable guidance for the Ministry of Interior, Federal Affairs and Reconciliation and the Interior Ministries of federal member states on how to enable popular participation for a locally relevant and sustainable national transitional justice process.
- Topic:
- Government, Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
709. Enabling Popular Participation in Transitional Justice in Somalia
- Author:
- Farhia Mohamud
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- Given the country's increasing stability, transitional justice has become an option for addressing the violence and gross human rights violations that have marked Somalia's history from the colonial period to the present. Experiences in other African countries over the past three decades show that transitional justice processes are more likely to be effective if they are rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. This study explores emerging measures linked to transitional justice in Somalia, which are rooted in local practices and build on local resources, to provide recommendations to state authorities, civil society, and multilateral actors, including the African Union, for enabling popular participation and thereby a more contextual, inclusive, and effective transitional justice process in Somalia. Based on extensive fieldwork with 114 participants in Mogadishu, Dhuusamreeb, and Gaalkacyo, the study examines formal and non-formal measures already occurring in Somalia to identify ways in which future transitional justice processes could enable people's agency over the goals, forms, and outcomes of measures dealing with the past.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, Political stability, Transitional Justice, and Political Participation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
710. The African Union and Member States: How to Mainstream Participation in Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Mary Izobo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- The 2019 African Union Transitional Justice Policy (AUTJP) advances a unique transitional justice approach based on the principles of national and local ownership, African shared values, inclusiveness, equity and non-discrimination. These principles highlight the importance of popular participation and provide a framework for mainstreaming participation in a meaningful way. This policy brief outlines how the AUTJP provides for participation, explains the value of participation, and identifies key challenges, before providing actionable recommendations for the African Union and its member states on partnering with a wide range of stakeholders to enhance popular participation. By doing so, the AU and member states can ensure that transitional justice is a transformative tool for sustainable peace, reconciliation and good governance at the regional and national levels in Africa.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, African Union, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa
711. The Gambian Government and Political Participation in Post-TRRC Transitional Justice
- Author:
- Jasmina Brankovic, Simon Robins, Fatou Baldeh, and Lena Houma
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- The government of Gambia has committed to implementing the recommendations of the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Commission (TRRC) through further transitional justice measures. Three decades of experience in Africa show that a transitional justice process as a whole is more likely to be effective if it is rooted in popular participation, particularly of victims/survivors and communities affected by violence. This policy brief is written for the Steering Committee leading the implementation process and for the Ministry of Justice and other government ministries and agencies supporting implementation efforts. The brief provides actionable guidance on how to ensure post-TRRC transitional justice measures – including reparations, justice and accountability, and institutional reforms – are inclusive and participatory. In line with the African Union Transitional Justice Policy, the brief emphasizes the value of both formal, state-run measures and non-formal, civil society-led measures, especially in combination. It is based on lessons from the TRRC's efforts to promote participation, as well as those of non-formal measures like the Listening Circles created by Women in Liberation and Leadership.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Participation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Gambia
712. Transitional Justice in the Gambia: Enabling Popular Participation
- Author:
- Fatou Baldeh and Lena Houma
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- This research report examines the level of popular participation in The Gambia's transitional justice process to date and provides recommendations for ensuring more meaningful participation going forward. It begins with an overview of both formal and non-formal measures in The Gambia, before analyzing in detail the dynamics of participation in the formal measure of the Truth, Reconciliation, and Reparations Commission (TRRC) and in non-formal measures, particularly Listening Circles established by Women in Liberation and Leadership. The study finds that while the TRRC sought to ensure broad-based participation and to gather evidence from a range of victims/survivors and perpetrators, it fell short in areas like sexual and gender-based violence. The sensitive nature of such crimes in the context of existing socio-cultural norms and practices hindered victims/survivors from approaching the commission. Additionally, the TRRC struggled to reach communities where Jammeh has strong support, with the commission being construed as part of a political agenda. Non-formal measures, run by civil society, filled some of the TRRC's gaps and contributed to wider participation of citizens in the process. To promote more meaningful participation in and across both formal and non-formal measures, we provide actionable recommendations for state actors, particularly state representatives on the Steering Committee leading the TRRC recommendations implementation process and the Ministry of Justice and other government ministries and agencies supporting implementation efforts. We also provide recommendations for multilateral actors supporting transitional justice in The Gambia, including international and regional organizations such as the African Union and the United Nations, state donor bodies, private foundations, and international nongovernmental organizations.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Reconciliation, and Participation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Gambia
713. Mainstreaming Popular Participation in Transitional Justice: Lessons from Multilateral, State and Civil Society Actors in the Gambia and Somalia
- Author:
- Jasmina Brankovic and Simon Robins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- Statements on the need for popular participation are increasingly common in international and national transitional justice policy and literature, yet little guidance is available on how to put participation into practice. Based on empirical research in The Gambia and Somalia and with multilateral actors supporting transitional justice in Africa, this research report examines what participation looks like and provides actionable recommendations for enabling participation in a more meaningful way. The findings are relevant for transitional justice policy makers, practitioners and scholars on the continent and beyond. The study builds on the African Union Transitional Justice Policy's provisions for community participation and acknowledgement of both formal, state-run measures and non-formal, civil society-led measures as transitional justice. The findings show that meaningful participation requires four main commitments on the part of multilateral, state and civil society actors: 1) mainstreaming, 2) localisation, 3) decentralisation, and 4) recognition of non-formal measures. Participatory transitional justice results in more inclusive, contextualised and effective processes, with broad-based buy-in for sustainable outcomes.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Transitional Justice, Multilateralism, and Participation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Somalia, and Gambia
714. Breaking the Silence: The Fight Against Gender-Based Violence in Tanzania
- Author:
- Wilifrida S. John
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation (CSVR)
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines the ongoing issue of gender-based violence (GBV) in Tanzania, despite the country's ratification of comprehensive international, regional, and national legal frameworks. It explores how harmful cultural practices such as unyago, vigodoro, and chagulaga; alongside entrenched patriarchal norms and contradictions between statutory and customary laws, continue to undermine protections for women and girls. The brief argues that legal commitments alone are insufficient without effective enforcement, structural reform, public education, and stronger institutional accountability. It offers evidence-based recommendations to better align the legal system with cultural change, survivor-centred support services, and coordinated, cross-sector responses. By situating Tanzania's case within the wider Sub-Saharan African context, it illustrates how legal pluralism, and socio-cultural dynamics contribute to the persistence of GBV across the region.
- Topic:
- Education, Culture, Reform, Women, Gender Based Violence, and Girls
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tanzania
715. The Gendered Impact of Social Norms on Financial Access and Capital Misallocation
- Author:
- Arti Grover and Mariana Viollaz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- This paper provides evidence on the nature of financial constraints faced by women entrepreneurs, especially in contexts of stringent social norms. Using micro-data from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for 61 countries, the analysis shows that formal firms managed by women do not face credit constraints on the extensive margin. They are equally likely to apply for credit as their male counterparts and experience lower rates of credit rejection, with a higher likelihood of opening credit lines. However, on the intensive margin, firms managed by women receive lower credit amounts, indicating signs of credit constraints. This disparity in access to credit cannot be explained by gender differences in risk profiles, profitability, or productivity. However, firms managed by women have lower sales per worker, suggesting challenges in accessing product and labor markets. The paper finds suggestive evidence of capital misallocation based on gender, particularly in countries with more restrictive gender and cultural norms. Firms managed by women demonstrate a 15 percent higher average return on capital compared to firms managed by men, indicating the potential benefits of increased access to credit for women-led businesses. These findings emphasize the importance of addressing gender-specific constraints to accessing finance and promoting gender-inclusive policies to enhance firm growth and reduce capital misallocation.
- Topic:
- Culture, Fiscal Policy, Credit, Capital, Gender, and Social Norms
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
716. Women Political Leaders as Agents of Environmental Change
- Author:
- Inés Berniell, Mariana Marchionni, Julian Pedrazzi, and Mariana Viollaz
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. Using a Regression Discontinuity design we find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This effect is driven by a reduction in emissions intensity (CO2e/GDP) in the Land Use sector, without changes in municipal economic activity. Part of the reduction in emissions in the Land Use sector is attributable to a decline in deforestation. We examine potential mechanisms that could explain the positive environmental impact of narrowly electing a female mayor over a male counterpart and find that in Amazon municipalities, female elected mayors allocate more space to the environment in their government proposals and are more likely to invest in environmental initiatives. Differences in the enforcement of environmental regulations do not explain the results.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Politics, Elections, Women, Leadership, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Latin America, and Amazon Basin
717. Childhood Welfare Exposure and Economic Outcomes for Adult Daughters and Sons
- Author:
- Robert Paul Hartley, Carlos Lamarche, and James P. Ziliak
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- We investigate how length of time on welfare during childhood affects economic outcomes in early adulthood. Using intergenerationally linked mother-child pairs from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we adopt a nonlinear difference-in-differences framework using the 1990s welfare reform to estimate average and quantile treatment effects on intensity of welfare use and earnings in adulthood. The causal estimates indicate that additional childhood welfare exposure leads to more adulthood years on the broader safety net for both daughters and sons, yet this positive relationship only applies below moderate levels of adult welfare participation and reverses at greater levels of dependence. Increasing childhood welfare exposure implies lower earnings in adulthood for daughters, however we find no evidence that it depresses adult sons’ earnings. Both daughters and sons exhibit some wage penalty from childhood welfare exposure, yet only daughters are penalized through hours worked in the labor market.
- Topic:
- Economics, Income Inequality, Welfare, Labor Market, Gender, and Intergenerational
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
718. Slowing Down, Heating Up: Economic Deceleration and Social Discontent in Latin America
- Author:
- Iván Albina, Jessica Bracco, Leonardo Gasparini, and Luis Laguinge
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- There have been widespread public expressions of discontent throughout Latin America since the early 2010s. We exploit harmonized microdata from national household surveys covering nearly all Latin American countries to explore potential sources of discontent driven by income changes along the income distribution. We also estimate fixed-effects models that link discontent measures to changes in household incomes. Our results suggest that discontent may stem less from absolute economic performance during the 2010s than from the significant deceleration relative to the previous decade.
- Topic:
- Economics, Inequality, Income, Discontent, and Deceleration
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
719. Energy poverty on the flip side of energy subsidies
- Author:
- Julian Puig and Leonardo Gasparini
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the relationship between energy subsidies and energy poverty (EP). Understanding this relationship is important because subsidies are often justified from an equity perspective to protect the most vulnerable households. Argentina, which has subsidized residential energy consumption since the early 2000s, is used as the case study. Since then, the energy subsidy policy has experienced two well-defined phases: massive and universal subsidies until 2015, followed by an attempt at reduction and targeting. This context, combined with notable regional disparities -including variations in income levels, climatic conditions, energy prices, and residential energy consumption patterns (e.g., electricity vs. piped gas)- makes this case study particularly compelling. EP is analyzed both unidimensionally and multidimensionally. Under both measures, EP follows a U-shaped pattern that reflects the phases of energy subsidies: a significant decrease between 2005 and 2013, followed by a considerable increase by 2018. The paper also highlights the key role of regional disparities which is crucial for interpreting the results beyond the Argentine case. Based on the findings, the paper contributes with globally relevant insights on the link between energy subsidy policies and EP.
- Topic:
- Poverty, Gas, Electricity, Subsidies, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
720. Effective community mobilization: evidence from Mali
- Author:
- Maria Laura Alzúa, Juan Camilo Cardenas, and Habiba Djebbari
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- Experts argue that the adoption of healthy sanitation practices, such as hand washing and latrine use, requires focusing on the entire community rather than individual behaviors. According to this view, one limiting factor in ending open defecation lies in the capacity of the community to collectively act toward this goal. Each member of a community bears the private cost of contributing by washing hands and using latrines, but the benefits through better health outcomes depend on whether other community members also opt out of open defecation. We rely on a community-based intervention carried out in Mali as an illustrative example (Community-Led Total Sanitation or CLTS). Using a series of experiments conducted in 121 villages and designed to measure the willingness of community members to contribute to a local public good, we investigate the process of participation in a collective action problem setting. Our focus is on two types of activities: (1) gathering of community members to encourage public discussion of the collective action problem, and (2) facilitation by a community champion of the adoption of individual actions to attain the socially preferred outcome. In games, communication helps raise public good provision, and both open discussion and facilitated ones have the same impact. When a community member facilitates a discussion after an open discussion session, public good contributions increase, but there are no gains from opening up the discussion after a facilitated session. Community members who choose to contribute in the no-communication treatment are not better facilitators than those who choose not to contribute
- Topic:
- Development, Sanitation, Behavior, Public Goods, and Community Initiatives
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
721. Hard Times, Hard Attitudes? The Effect of Economic Downturns on Gender Norms
- Author:
- Inés Berniell, Leonardo Gasparini, Mariana Marchionni, and Mariana Viollaz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the impact of economic fluctuations on social norms, specifically exploring the link between changes in unemployment and shifts in attitudes toward gender roles in the labor market. The results are not immediately obvious, as the literature suggests several potential mechanisms with conflicting outcomes. Using microdata from the World Values Survey for a panel of 103 countries that cover close to 90% of the world population, we estimate individual-level probability models of agreement with traditional gender roles over the period 1995 to 2021, including country and year fixed effects. We find that an increase in unemployment is associated to more conservative views about gender roles in the labor market. This result is remarkably robust across different groups and specifications. We also find that some contextual factors matter. In particular, the link between higher unemployment and more conservative views on gender roles is stronger in countries with, on average, higher gender inequality and lower female labor force participation. Overall, this study contributes to a growing body of research on the complex relationship between economic conditions, gender norms, and social change.
- Topic:
- Economics, Unemployment, Attitudes, Gender, and Social Norms
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
722. Minimum Wages and Skill Premiums: Evidence for Latin America
- Author:
- Lucía Ramírez Leira, Octavio Bertín, and Leonardo Gasparini
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the effect of the minimum wage on skill premiums in Latin America over the period 1997–2019. The canonical labor market model is extended to include the role of the minimum wage, following the approach proposed by Vogel (2023). Skill premiums are estimated through Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) regressions using harmonized household survey microdata from 14 Latin American countries. Results suggest that increases in the minimum wage are associated with reductions in the skill premium between workers with and without higher education, but do not appear to have a significant effect on the gap between workers with medium and low levels of education. The largest effect of the minimum wage is observed for workers with higher levels of labor market experience. These findings contribute to recent evidence highlighting the role of labor institutions as one of the main drivers of the reduction in inequality in Latin America since the early 2000s.
- Topic:
- Economics, Inequality, Skilled Labor, Minimum Wage, and Wages
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
723. The Future of Work(ers) in the Age of Technological Revolution
- Author:
- Andrés César
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
- Abstract:
- This chapter reviews key literature on the determinants and implications of technological change associated with the Third and Fourth Industrial Revolutions, which have spread globally since the late 20th century, and presents descriptive evidence. The main conclusion is that while technological progress has not significantly threatened overall employment opportunities, it has clearly contributed to rising income inequality. Consequently, a future devoid of employment is not anticipated, although the prospects for equality remain uncertain. I argue that to maximize the benefits of technological advancement, education must evolve in tandem with technology, equipping individuals to work alongside new innovations throughout their lives. This would enable workers to fully leverage automation of routine tasks and augmentation of abstract and cognitive tasks, fostering teamwork, problem-solving, flexibility, creativity, and social intelligence. Furthermore, productivity growth driven by technological progress is likely to increase demand for both traditional and new goods and services, generate income gains that increase demand for quality, accelerate structural change, and exert pressure on resource utilization.
- Topic:
- Education, Science and Technology, Income Distribution, Jobs, Technological Revolution, and Resource Utilization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
724. Climate Change Budget Compliance Assessment Report
- Author:
- Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
- Abstract:
- This report presents a compliance assessment of Uganda’s national budget for Financial Year (FY) 2024/25, evaluating the budget’s alignment with climate change priorities that are outlined in the Third National Development Plan (NDP III). The assessment focuses on thirteen (13) priority programmes, selected for their climate change vulnerability, strategic importance, and potential to contribute to climate resilience and low-carbon development. With the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) already approved, this analysis provides insights into the country’s progress with climate-change-sensitive development programming and action, while highlighting gaps in climate finance integration. This effort should inform more robust and inclusive planning for the future. Climate change remains one of the most pressing and persistent global development challenges. It increasingly impacts people’s livelihoods, and its effects are especially worse in vulnerable and least-prepared countries like Uganda. Climate change effects are far-reaching, contributing to environmental degradation, reduced agricultural productivity, health challenges, and disruption of livelihoods. These impacts not only threaten ecosystems and human well-being but also hinder the achievement of sustainable development and social equity, thereby deepening social exclusion. As the climate crisis intensifies, urgent and coordinated global, regional, and national action becomes critical. Effective and timely mitigation and adaptation responses are necessary to minimize harm and contribute meaningfully to the achievement of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). On the other hand, delayed or no action on climate change is expected to result in more severe, costly, and irreversible consequences for both natural and human systems. Uganda’s long-term development frameworks, including the Vision 2040, the Third National Development Plan (NDPIII), and various sectoral policies and plans, recognize climate change as a major threat to socio-economic transformation and sustainable development. These frameworks emphasize the need for substantial investments in climateresilient development. The success of Uganda’s ambitions for inclusive growth largely hinges on the effective integration of climate action across all programmes of the country’s development plans, and adequate allocation of resources to finance climate interventions. TThe NDP III (2020/21–2024/25), now in its final implementation year, integrates climate change priorities across all its twenty (20) programmes. It specifies strategic interventions and performance targets, which are reflectedinthePlan’sResultsFrameworkandProgrammeImplementation Action Plans (PIAPs). This was intended to guide the national budgeting process, ensuring budget alignment with climate-resilient development goals. The goal of this assessment is to ascertain the extent to which the national budget of FY 2024/2025 and Budget Framework Paper (BFP) of 2025/2026 comply with planned climate change interventions under NDP III and NDP IV. The assessment involved selection of Programmes that are either most vulnerable to climate change, or have highest potential to contribute to climate change via their high greenhouse gas emission intensity. This selection was informed by Uganda’s National Climate Change priority areas captured in the country’s revised/updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 2022) and the Uganda Green Growth Development Strategy (UGGDS) 2017-2030. This programme selection was followed by a review and analysis of national planning and budgeting documents, focusing on: (i) adaptation and resilience building; and (ii) mitigation or reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Budget, Compliance, and Sustainable Development
- Political Geography:
- Uganda and Africa
725. What to expect from the UK-EU Summit
- Author:
- Jannike Wachowiak, Joël Reland, and Anand Menon
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The first leader level post-Brexit UK-EU summit will take place on Monday 19 May. The government has stated its desire to strengthen the ‘strategic alliance’ between the UK and the EU, to deepen relations on security and to tear down barriers to trade. Not all of this will be achieved. However, the meeting will mark a significant first step towards building on existing agreements and a test of whether the two sides are committed to matching increasingly warm words with actions. This insight paper explains the key areas to keep an eye out for during the summit and the potential impact they might have on the future of UK-EU relations.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
726. Regulating after Brexit
- Author:
- Joël Reland
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- Deregulation was at the heart of the Conservative vision of Brexit. Boris Johnson negotiated a Brexit deal which gave Great Britain significant freedom to diverge from EU rules and regulations, promising to make the UK ‘the best regulated economy in the world’. This report examines the extent to which the UK has made use of its ‘Brexit freedoms’, finding that there has been very little meaningful divergence from the EU. It identifies the key reasons for this lack of divergence: trade frictions, political complexities, limited state capacity and a lack of strategy. The report then analyses the change in regulatory approach under the current government. It finds that, unlike its predecessors, this government is willing to align with EU rules to remove existing trade barriers and to avoid new ‘passive divergence’ where EU rule changes create divergence by default. Yet, at the same time, the government is keen to use deregulation to boost growth and to build trade ties with the United States. This report identifies a potential conflict between these aims and its EU regulatory agenda, and argues that the UK needs a clear strategy to ensure its multiple regulatory objectives do not undermine one another.
- Topic:
- European Union, Regulation, Economy, Brexit, and Deregulation
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
727. Choices and challenges for UK foreign policy
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- The new British government has come to power at a time of profound geopolitical, economic, ecological, and technological transformation. A major state-on-state war continues to rage in continental Europe. In Africa, the Sudanese civil war has created the largest humanitarian crisis on record. While the recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire brings hope for wider de-escalation in the Middle East, the consequences of the 7 October 2023 attack and subsequent destruction in Gaza will be with us for the foreseeable future. To all of this, the inauguration of President Trump adds a layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile the West struggles to decide how best to deal with the changing nature of competition with China, with rapid technological and ecological change, and with a disparate Global South increasingly hedging its bets in terms of choosing between the West and assertive challengers to the existing order. Confronted with such a complex environment, there is more need than ever for timely, research-based evidence on which to base future policy choices. That is precisely what this report seeks to do. We asked leading experts on contemporary world politics each to analyse the major challenges confronting the UK in a key policy area, to summarise existing UK approaches, and to lay out the key choices facing the government today.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Geopolitics, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
728. The Brexit Files: from referendum to reset
- Author:
- UK in a Changing Europe
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
- Abstract:
- For the past decade, UK in a Changing Europe has provided impartial, research-based analysis on a number of issues, but most particularly on UK-EU relations. Since before the 2015 General Election, we have evaluated those relations, traced and explained the tortuous Brexit process, and attempted to assess the impact that Brexit has had on the country. This report brings together some of the best scholars working on these issues to consider a number of these questions on the 5th anniversary of the UK ceasing to be a member of the European Union.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Elections, European Union, and Brexit
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
729. Peripheral Growth Models and the Global Economy: A Second Image IPE Perspective
- Author:
- Michael Schedelik and Andreas Nölke
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- The paper departs from the perspective of “second image IPE,” i.e., the need to closely combine Comparative Political Economy (CPE) and International Political Economy (IPE). More specifically, it focuses on the observation that the growth models in the (former) periphery of the global economy (a typical focus of CPE) are strongly shaped by their interdependencies with the structural transformations of the global economy (as studied by IPE). At the same time, the changes within the growth models of large economies in this periphery (CPE) can have a major impact on global interdependencies (IPE). For example, the rise of China as a major player in world trade and investment (“China shock”) has had a substantial impact on growth models elsewhere in the periphery, via import penetration, direct investment, and export demand. This paper shows how these growth models shape (and are shaped through) international interdependencies by analyzing (1) the effects of global commodity cycles on the growth experience of several major exporters of primary resources, such as Brazil or Indonesia, during and after the recent commodity boom. (2) We further elaborate on the effects of global financial cycles on peripheral countries, particularly those pursuing debt-led growth models, such as South Africa or Turkey. (3) We finally point to the role of global production chains and foreign direct investment for FDI-led growth models of manufacturing exporters such as Thailand or Vietnam in South East Asia.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, Economic Growth, Commodities, Emerging Economies, and Growth Models
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
730. Shifting Paths? The Evolution of Southern European Growth Trajectories Between the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid Pandemic
- Author:
- Fabio Bulfone, Mischa Stratenwerth, and Arianna Tassinari
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- This paper traces the growth trajectories of the Southern European economies (Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) from the financial to the covid crisis. From a review of the comparative political economy literature focusing on Southern Europe, we derive three propositions regarding the growth profile, the development of high value-added services and manufacturing exports, and employment outcomes. To assess the accuracy of these propositions, we conduct growth decompositions based on import-adjusted demand components as well as on sectoral output and employment indicators. The data show that Southern European economies are similar in that export-led growth has not been sufficient to boost aggregate growth, stimulate high value-added services or manufacturing, reverse pro-cyclical employment declines, or create high-wage employment opportunities. But the Southern European economies also differ, both in terms of their sectoral growth profiles and their aggregate performance. In the second half of the decade, Portugal and Spain managed to combine domestic demand and exports to achieve stronger growth than Italy and Greece. Sectoral developments in Portugal and Spain (and to a lesser extent in Italy) tentatively suggest a potential “Iberian growth path” that is compatible with euro area constraints but ultimately peripheral. The paper concludes by considering the empirical and theoretical implications of these findings for the study of the Southern European model of capitalism.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Economic Growth, Exports, and Austerity
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Southern Europe
731. Untrustworthy Authorities and Complicit Bankers: Unraveling Monetary Distrust in Argentina
- Author:
- Guadalupe Moreno
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- Money, capitalist market societies’ paramount contract, relies on the belief in its enduring value. However, we still know surprisingly little about the social foundations that sustain that belief. How is our collective trust in the enduring value of money socially built, and what happens if people lose such trust? What if a society convinces itself that policymakers cannot guarantee that the value of money will persist over time? In this paper, I use Argentina as a monetary laboratory to study how almost eighty uninterrupted years of high inflation and successive currency crises led to a social trauma that crystalized in the emergence of a distrust narrative: a strong popular belief that neither the state nor the local financial system will be able to preserve the value of the national currency or the worth of savings over time. By analyzing the production and reproduction of this narrative and its long-lasting effects on the Argentine economy, I show how rooted distrust in a currency fosters a myriad of practices aimed at protecting savings, which impose severe limits on monetary governance. I emphasize that when state authorities lose control of collective expectations and negative monetary imaginaries take off, a vicious cycle unfolds in which instability, inflation, and devaluation reinforce each other.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Financial Crisis, Governance, Central Bank, Money, and Trust
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
732. Neoliberalism’s True Heirs: What Late-Apartheid South Africa Can Teach Us About the Contemporary Far Right
- Author:
- Elizabeth Soer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- How can we make sense of the resurgence of the far right across the world? From the re-election of Donald Trump to the flourishing of Hindu nationalism under Narendra Modi, right-wing politicians have undoubtedly grown in prominence over the last decade. There is a burgeoning literature on this topic as scholars attempt to understand whether it is a backlash against neoliberalism, a reactionary form of neoliberalism, or simply a cultural phenomenon produced by increased global connectivity. This paper contributes to the vibrant discussion by examining an ideal yet overlooked case of ethno-nationalist neoliberalism – apartheid South Africa in the 1980s. This case reveals neoliberalism’s relationship to colonialism and its contribution to the perpetuation of white rule. South Africa has served as a test case for neoliberal ideas about race and economics and can thus contribute broader insights on the topic. The paper argues that the contemporary far right is not a backlash against neoliberalism, but a robust continuation of it. It draws on a vast range of archival sources from the late-apartheid period as well as the writings of prominent neoliberal thinkers to support this argument.
- Topic:
- Apartheid, Neoliberalism, Far Right, and Ethnonationalism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
733. Sanctuaries, Islands, and Deserts: A Typology of Regionalized Abortion Policy
- Author:
- Payton Gannon and Danielle Pullan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- This paper elaborates a typology of regionalized abortion policy based on a comparative case study of Italy and the United States. Italy originally legalized abortion in 1978 and has seen little effort to modify the law since. Contrastingly, the United States’ abortion landscape has been in near constant flux since 1974, when, in Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court recognized a constitutional right to abortion. This became even more unstable in 2022 when the Supreme Court overruled Roe in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health and held there is no constitutional right to abortion. Despite their differences in national abortion policy, both Italy and the US have regionalized the implementation of their abortion policies. Italy’s law is national, but implementation is interpreted differently at the regional level. Since Dobbs, US states have proposed and passed many laws about abortion, creating even greater regional variation than before. We propose a typology of regionalized abortion access: “Sanctuaries” where abortion is most protected and available; “Islands” with liberal policies that are surrounded by more restrictive territories; and “Deserts” with minimal abortion access. Through qualitative analysis of policies, political activities, and firsthand accounts by abortion providers and advocates working in places of each type, we then highlight the long-term implications of each of these components of the typology, analyzing the ways that they impact abortion providers and patients.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Health Care Policy, Abortion, and Regionalization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Italy, North America, and United States of America
734. Lessons from West Germany's Cold War experience
- Author:
- Paul Williams
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- The Russian aggression against Ukraine is now more than three years old. A new US administration is implementing a radical approach to securing a ceasefire and appears poised to limit direct military assistance to Ukraine. Consequently, Europe now recognizes that it must approach this war in a decidedly different manner than might have been presumed only a few months ago. The past may offer hints to a path forward for Ukraine to survive and ultimately prevail against Russia. While the imminent threat of war hung over Europe during the Cold War, West Germany lived under the constant threat of Soviet aggression. Yet, through economic revival, strategic military growth and partnerships, and careful political maneuvering, West Germany not only outlasted its aggressor but laid the groundwork for long-term stability and prosperity. West Germany's experience during the Cold War offers valuable insights for Ukraine in its pursuit of enduring stability and prosperity amid external threats. This blog explores some of the lessons that may be drawn from West Germany across economic and military themes.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Economics, History, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and West Germany
735. Plunder by Paperwork: Land Use and Legal Manipulation in Russian-Occupied Ukrainian Territories
- Author:
- Kateryna Kyrychenko and Patricia Wiater
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- In war, land is more than terrain — it is power, memory, identity, and future. Nowhere is this clearer than in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, where the battle is being waged not only with weapons but with registries, decrees, and legal manipulation. Russia’s strategy in Ukraine has not merely been to seize land — but to rewrite the law that governs it. Through reclassification, coerced registration, and demographic engineering, the occupying power is attempting to transform occupation into ownership — to fabricate a claim to sovereignty through legal means. Beneath a facade of administrative normalcy lies a systematic campaign of illegal appropriation — one that violates both international humanitarian law and human rights protections. This blog post outlines the legal framework governing land under occupation, examines how Russia has sought to subvert it, and explains why land law is now a frontline of resistance.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Law, Occupation, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
736. Russian Use of Rape as a Weapon of War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Paul Williams, Gregory P. Noone, and Sindija Beta
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- Numerous investigative reports into the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine since 2022 have documented extensive and shocking use of sexual and gender-based violence (“SGBV”) by Russian nationals against Ukrainian civilians, prisoners of war, and other detainees. Russia has long been responsible for a largely under-discussed and distressing amount of SGBV crimes, including rape. Russian SGBV atrocities have historically been especially brutal during World War II in Germany, as well as Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia. Focus has recently turned to the question of how Russia could be held accountable for its use of SGBV as a weapon of war in Ukraine. Various sources of international law provide prohibitions on the use of SGBV during armed conflict, and there have been successful examples of holding individual perpetrators accountable under international criminal law in past conflicts. As the Russian attacks on Ukraine continue unabated, it is appropriate to appraise the scale of SGBV committed, the international laws being breached, and the possible enforcement mechanisms.
- Topic:
- Gender Based Violence, Rape, Sexual Violence, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
737. Recognizing 2014: The Legal and Moral Imperative for Full Reparations for Russian Aggression
- Author:
- Kateryna Kyrychenko, Paul D. Williams, and Sindija Beta
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Public International Law Policy Group
- Abstract:
- Why are the earliest victims of Russia’s war in Ukraine — those targeted since 2014 — still excluded from reparations, when it was exactly the failure to respond to that initial aggression that directly enabled the full-scale invasion in 2022?
- Topic:
- Law, International Crime, Reparations, Russia-Ukraine War, and Aggression
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
738. Equity and Aspiration: Understanding East Londoners’ Views on Social Mobility and Careers in the Professions
- Author:
- Mile End Institute
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- This report sets out the findings of survey research which was conducted with a representative sample of East Londoners, asking a number of questions about careers in the professions – including about the desirability of working in these kinds of roles, and the trustworthiness and diversity of the professional workforce – about social mobility, and about the role of universities and other alternative education providers in all this.
- Topic:
- Education, Survey, Equity, Social Mobility, and Professions
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and East London
739. Politics, AI and the Future of the University
- Author:
- Tim Clement-Jones
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- In the latest in the Mile End Institute's 'In Conversation’ series, we were joined by the former Lawyer and Liberal Democrat spokesperson on Science, Innovation and Technology, Tim Clement-Jones CBE. Lord Clement-Jones is a Liberal Democrat peer, an expert in AI and the digital economy and an educationalist. He joined the House of Lords in 1998 and is now one of the country’s leading authorities on the creative industries. He has been a key figure in legislative discussions of AI and emerging technologies, and published his book, Living with the Algorithm in 2024. Having just completed his final term as Chair of Queen Mary’s Council, Lord Clement-Jones was in conversation with Professor Elke Schwarz about his early life, his political career, his experience of university management and the challenge of AI.
- Topic:
- Education, Politics, Science and Technology, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, and Universities
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
740. How to Replace 'First Past the Post'
- Author:
- Jess Garland, Rainbow Murray, Stephen Gethins, and Stijn van Kessel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- In 1918, Parliament came within hours of abolishing First Past the Post. The system only survived because the two Houses disagreed on the system that should replace it. With the Bill on the brink of collapse, the question was postponed – a reprieve that has lasted for 107 years. In a recent YouGov poll, only 23% of respondents backed First Past the Post. But what might replace it? Different countries use a dizzying array of different systems, which are designed to do different things. Some are ‘proportional’, others ‘preferential’. Some would expand the range of parties, while others might shrink them. Do we want our electoral system to give us strong governments or strong parliaments? Do we want more or fewer regional parties, independent candidates, extremist parties or coalitions? In this event, co-hosted with Unlock Democracy, the Electoral Reform Society and Make Votes Matter, the Mile End Institute presented different electoral systems as used in France, New Zealand, Scotland, Ireland and the Netherlands. Dr Jess Garland (ERS), Professor Rainbow Murray (QMUL), Stephen Gethins MP and Professor Stijn van Kessel (QMUL) debated their strengths and weaknesses; what they can and can’t achieve; and how they work in practice.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom
741. The Political Economy of Starmer's Labour
- Author:
- Colm Murphy, Sam Freedman, Morgan Jones, Theo Bertram, and Kate Alexander Shaw
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- The first eight months of the new Labour government have been tumultuous, and nowhere more than in the politics of economics. Rachel Reeves has hiked taxes and increased borrowing, but her Treasury are also in tense negotiations with other departments over spending constraints. The Bank of England is trying to cut interest rates, but in a volatile market environment highly sensitive to developments across the Atlantic. The Government has already made itself vocal enemies ranging from tractor-driving farmers to child poverty campaigners, and businesses, trade unions, and lobbyists are currently battling to shape its policies on workers rights, planning reform, oilfields and airport expansions. What have we learned about Labour's economic policies? Do they have a coherent strategy? How united is the Labour Party and what are the emerging tensions? What would a successful economic strategy look like, given the UK's longstanding weaknesses of underinvestment and regional inequality and newer dangers like trade wars and recessionary risk? In this Mile End Institute webinar, Dr Colm Murphy, Sam Freedman (author of Britain's biggest politics Substack), the political writer Morgan Jones, former Number 10 advisor Dr Theo Bertram, and the economist Dr Kate Alexander Shaw explore the political economy of Keir Starmer's Labour Party.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Political Parties, Labour Party, and Keir Starmer
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom and Europe
742. The Third Hennessy Lecture: Baroness Sayeeda Warsi
- Author:
- Sayeeda Warsi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- Baroness Sayeeda Warsi was the first Muslim to serve in a British Cabinet, during the coalition government of 2010-15. A former party Chair, Foreign Office minister and Minister for Faith and Communities, she is now a non-aligned peer and has become one of Britain's leading commentators on Islam and Islamophobia. She is a prominent voice against anti-Muslim racism, and the author of two celebrated books on the role of Islam in modern Britain: The Enemy Within: A Tale of Muslim Britain and Muslims Don't Matter. In the third of the Mile End Institute's new series of distinguished "Hennessy Lectures", to mark our 10th anniversary, Baroness Warsi reflected on her life and career as a Muslim woman born in Yorkshire, who practised as a lawyer before becoming a minister and member of the House of Lords, and offered "the anatomy of a prejudice" in British society today.
- Topic:
- Politics, Muslims, and House of Lords
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
743. The Future of the 'Special Relationship'
- Author:
- Kim Darroch and Evie Aspinall
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- Since Winston Churchill first coined the term in 1946, successive American Presidents and Prime Ministers have hailed the ‘Special Relationship’ between the United Kingdom and the United States. For over 80 years, the exceptionally close political, diplomatic, economic, military and intelligence relationship between the two countries has endured changes of government, the end of the Cold War, the ‘War on Terror’, and globalisation. In the week that Donald Trump returned to the White House, the former British Ambassador to the United States, Kim Darroch, the Director of the British Foreign Policy Group, Evie Aspinall, and Dr James Ellison explored the future of Anglo-American relations. With tariffs looming and Elon Musk waging war on the Starmer government, they asked how should Britain handle this relationship - and explored the challenges it will face over the coming years.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, Tariffs, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America
744. The Conservative Party in Opposition
- Author:
- Tim Bale, Nigel Fletcher, Lee David Evans, and Mercy Muroki
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
- Abstract:
- As Kemi Badenoch began her tenure as Leader of the Conservative Party and the Leader of His Majesty's Official Opposition, Prof Tim Bale was joined by Dr Nigel Fletcher, Lee David Evans and Mercy Muroki to explore her approach to leadership and what her Shadow Cabinet appointments tell us about the future of Conservative policy. After the most successful electoral force in British history suffered the worst defeat in its 200-year existence, our expert panel of academics, historians and political commentators considered how the new Conservative leader might approach the challenges and dilemmas of Opposition.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Conservative Party
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
745. GTB v Spain: The Right to a Birth Certificate Under the European Convention on Human Rights
- Author:
- Cameron Nye
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- On 16November 2023, the European Court of Human Rights (‘Court’) issued a landmark judgment in the case of GTB v Spain (‘GTB’).1The case concerned the prolonged delay by Spanish authorities in assisting the applicant, Mr GTB, with registering his birth and obtaining identity documents, despite being aware of his inability to do so. In a first for the Court, itwasheld that art 8 of the Convention on the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (‘ECHR’),2which protects the right to private and family life, includes a right to birth registration. Accordingly, the Court found a violation against the Spanish authorities for their failure to act diligently to secure this right.3Birth registration is vital to establish a child’s legal identity, family ties and often their nationality, all of which are important for accessing fundamental rights. Children who lack birth registration can face significant difficulties in their education, healthcare and personal lives. In some cases, these children are also stateless or at the risk thereof.4Nevertheless, significant barriers to birth registration persist across Europe and other regions. The GTB judgment has clear potential to place the issue of birth registration and access to identity documents at the heart of the Court’s progressive development of art 8. The Court not only established that access to documentation is a substantive right under the ECHR, but also articulated this through a noteworthy emphasis on the right to have one’s identity recognised in law, particularly where children are concerned.5The judgment also takes a step further in the Court’s interpretation of art 8, considering as its central legal issue whether states have an obligation to go beyond standard procedures to secure an individual’s ability to develop their sense of identity.6While the Court’s analysis raisesvarious questions,particularly whether the obligation exists only as a remedy for parental inaction,it nevertheless establishes several principles that advance the protections of art 8 concerning an individual’s access to a legal identity.
- Topic:
- Identity, European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), Statelessness, and Documentation
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Spain
746. Recognition of the Status of Stateless Persons and Right of Residence for Palestinians in Belgium: Applying the Principle of res judicata to Avoid Divergences among Courts
- Author:
- Giulia Bittoni
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- The recognition of the status of stateless Palestinians within the European Union (‘EU’) is complex and sensitive, notably due to the challenges in determining whether Palestine qualifies as a state. Moreover, not all EU Member states grant a right of residence to stateless individuals. In some states, including Belgium, recognising statelessness does not automatically confer a right of residence, creating a gap between statelessness recognition and thisright.1This discrepancy has led to numerous legal actions in Belgian civil courts to seek this residence right.Until August 2024, Belgium recognisedstateless statussolely through judicial procedure.More specifically,until 2017, the Tribunal de première instance (‘Tribunalof First Instance’)held jurisdiction in these matters. Since 3 August 2017, jurisdiction has shifted to the Tribunal de la familleet de la jeunesse(‘The Family and Juvenile Tribunal’) based on the residence of the applicant.
- Topic:
- European Union, Palestinians, Statelessness, and Aliens Act
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Palestine, and Belgium
747. Statelessness, Gender, and Intersectionality in Bjorkquist et al v Attorney General of Canada
- Author:
- Heather Alexander and Jocelyn Kane
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- Bjorkquist et alv AttorneyGeneral of Canada, decided in the Ontario Superior Court of Justice on 19 December 2023, is a landmark ruling overturning the so-called ‘second generation cut off’in Canadian citizenship law that prohibitedCanadian citizens born abroad from automatically passing their Canadian citizenship to their children if thelatterwere also born abroad.1The ruling therefore establishes the rights of ‘lost Canadians’to Canadian citizenship.Applicants and the Court made several important contributions not only to the right to a nationality under Canadian law, but also to the global fight against statelessness by lending support to the concept of intersectional discrimination in the context of the right to citizenship. Experts have hailed it as a groundbreaking decision for the principle of intersectionality in discrimination.2A further contribution was made concerning the ability of stateless persons to have standing before national courts despite their non-citizen status. Yet,despite the Court acknowledging that the law in question causes the risk of statelessness,3the case did notdirectly address Canada’s international obligations to prevent and resolve statelessness. Nor did applicants argue, nor the Court independently find, that the creation of statelessness is a Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms(‘Charter’) violation.4Nevertheless, the case will help to close a serious and gendered gap in Canadian law that was producing statelessness.
- Topic:
- Citizenship, Discrimination, Intersectionality, Gender, and Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
748. Towards Equitable, Transparent and Evidence-based Malaysian Citizenship Law Amendments: Taking Stock of Remaining Risks of Statelessness and Exclusion
- Author:
- Rodziana bt Mohamed Razali and Chin Chin Sia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- In this commentary, we critically reflect on the recentcitizenship amendmentspassedby the Malaysian House of Representatives via the Constitution (Amendment) Bill 2024on 17 October2024.1Wealso examine the critical issues inherent within several facets of Malaysia’s citizenship frameworkthat have been deemed regressive for the potential heightening of statelessness and exclusion from citizenship among several impacted categories of persons. We argue that equitable and effective reforms to the citizenship regime are not just necessary but also encouraging. These reforms are needed to mitigate the risk of statelessness and its negative repercussions in accordance with art 15 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights,2in which everyone has the right to nationality. Restrictive citizenship lawswhich do not align with art 15 have undesirable consequences for families,impactinglife choices such as where individuals may choose to live, work, study or even where they have children and raise a family. We then recommend using a balanced and equitable approach, supported by credible data, evidence and transparent processes, to reassess the revision of the citizenship laws for the future sustainability of Malaysia as a democratic and progressive country.
- Topic:
- Law, Citizenship, Exclusion, and Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- Malaysia and Southeast Asia
749. World Conference on Statelessness 2024 – Key Takeaways
- Author:
- Subin Mulmi and Jenna Biedscheid
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- The Second World Conference on Statelessness was convened at Taylor’s University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from 26 to 29 February 2024.1It was co-organised by the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), Nationality for All (NFA), Development of Human Resources for Rural Areas Malaysia (DHRRA), Family Frontiers (‘FF’) and supported by the Human Rights Commission of Malaysia (SUHAKAM).The Conference was the biggest convening of the statelessness field to date, attended by 450 in-person participants and over 100 online participants from all over the world. Around 30% of the participants who responded to a voluntary survey identified themselves as persons with lived experience of statelessness.2This shows a significant increase from the first World Conference in 2019, where only 10% of participants had lived experience.3In contrast to the first Conference being held in The Hague, the venue moving to Malaysia is reflective of greater accessibility and representation, with the Asia Pacific holding the largest population of stateless persons in the world.4Over the course of three and a half days, the Conference featured plenary sessions, panel discussions, workshops and skill labs focusing on the three themes of ‘Solidarity, Knowledge and Change’. The Conference also featured the Immersive Arts and Culture Programmetitled‘Think of Others’,which was an integral part of the event.5This piece captures some of the key conversations that took place at the Conference and provides a reflective analysis from the perspective of two members of the organising team. Their analysis delves into broad takeaways that affect civil society and the statelessness ecosystem through the three themes of the Conference, with the purpose of targeting a diverse set of participants. The findings are based on the notes taken by the designated notetakers and the recorded videos of the plenary sessions.
- Topic:
- Development, Rural, Human Resources, Inclusion, Statelessness, and World Conference on Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
750. Stateless Persons in the Czech Republic: Filling the Gaps without Good Faith?
- Author:
- Alžbeta Králová and Linda Janků
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- ‘I feel like I am nobody. That’s it. A stateless person is nobody. Someone who does not exist. This is how I feel.’1Thissense of invisibility or non-existenceasillustrated by the wordsof one of Czechia’s (more commonly known as the Czech Republic)stateless persons is often associated with the phenomenon of statelessness. What reinforces this feeling is that State authorities themselves treat stateless persons as invisible. This only intensifies the disintegration of their personal and social identity. Furthermore, states not only ignore the plight of stateless persons, but they also seem to disregard their international commitments to this extremely vulnerable group.2This includes the Czech Republic, which appears reluctant to uphold the principle of good faith while interpreting its international obligations towards stateless persons.Statelessness in the Czech Republic today appears in the migratory context, similarly to other European countries. It is estimated that up to 1,500 stateless individuals live in the Czech Republic, including both those residing legally and illegally.3However, the issue has received very little attention and has long been perceived as non-existent, due to both a lack of public awareness and the Czech government’s reluctance to address it. For several decades, stateless persons have been caught in a cycle of lacking legal pathways to regularise their stay, facing expulsion proceedings and repeated detentions.
- Topic:
- Citizenship, Statelessness, and New Aliens Act
- Political Geography:
- Czech Republic
751. Reflections on Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe) 2024
- Author:
- Aleksejs Ivashuk, Jessica Schmieder, and Aleksandra Semeriak Gavrilenok
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- Statelessness Awareness Forum (Europe), or SAF(E), is the firstever international forum hosted by a stateless-led organisation, Apatride Network.1The organisation is one of the biggest stateless-led organisations in the world, working to address statelessness in the European Union(‘EU’) byfocusing on awareness raising, legal assistance and stakeholder bridge-building, and impact initiatives that tackle daily challenges faced by stateless people.2These daily challenges may include issues in documentation, employment, banking access, freedom of movement, lack of representation in the media and other relevant spaces. SAF(E) is designed by Apatride Network as a continuous, annual event that takes on the challenge of the lack of systemic awarenessraising on statelessness. The first edition was held from 20 to 24March2024 in Alicante, Spain. It brought together leading experts in statelessness, including experts from stateless-led organisations, representation from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (‘UNHCR’), the Institute on Statelessness and Inclusion (ISI), the Hungarian Helsinki Committee,and the European Network on Statelessness (‘ENS’). This reflection piece is meant to highlight the significance of SAF(E), the lessons drawn and learnedfrom the forumand the impact it has had on addressing statelessness.
- Topic:
- European Union and Statelessness
- Political Geography:
- Europe
752. Reframing the Windrush Scandal as an International Statelessness Crisis
- Author:
- Eve Hayes de Kalaf
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Statelessness & Citizenship Review
- Institution:
- Peter McMullin Centre on Statelessness, Melbourne Law School
- Abstract:
- The 2018 so-termed ‘Windrush Scandal’ highlighted the discriminatory actions of the British State against Commonwealth migrants who, having legally settled in the United Kingdom in the postwar period, found their right to remain wrongly challenged by the Home Office. The controversy led to threats of deportation and incarceration for some, while others found they were locked out of the country indefinitely. This article examines some of the ways in which racialised and minority groups can encounter ‘statelessness-like’ experiences in their everyday interactions with the state, as well as exploring some of the far-reaching and unexpected consequences of measures that have historically attempted to limit migration from the Caribbean and the broader Commonwealth to the United Kingdom. Drawing on extensive oral history interviews conducted as part of the project ‘The Windrush Scandal in a Transnational and Commonwealth Context’, this paper argues that the Scandal provides statelessness scholars with a much-needed window into the distinct ways Global North countries have sought to prevent migrants and their descendants, many of whom see themselves as citizens, from full enjoyment of their rights. Ultimately, the author proposes that the (re)positioning of the Windrush Scandal as a crisis worthy of international attention will firmly embed the inclusion of this controversy into the field of statelessness studies, while opening new opportunities for cultural, political and legal exploration of the broader ways in which people’s claims to citizenship recognition can be thwarted, overridden or ignored by the state.
- Topic:
- Migrants, Statelessness, Commonwealth of Nations, and Windrush
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Caribbean
753. ASEAN Caught Between China’s Export Surge and Global De-Risking
- Author:
- Asia Sociey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- ASEAN, long a beneficiary of China’s rapid growth and global supply chain integration, now faces mounting pressures as Chinese industrial overcapacity spills into the region. ASEAN has thus far largely stayed out of growing global trade tensions around China’s industrial policies, much as it did during earlier U.S.-China trade disputes, while benefiting from investment and trade from all sides and deeper integration into Chinese supply chains that support growing exports to global markets. However, ASEAN faces increasing pressures from four key trends, each of which is accelerating, pointing to a more challenging time ahead for ASEAN policymakers and businesses. These developments are increasingly putting ASEAN in the middle of economic challenges and global reactions to China and its industrial overcapacity. China’s exports to ASEAN are growing rapidly, exceeding its exports to the United States and the European Union (EU) since 2023, and up a further 12% in 2024. While most of this growth has been in intermediate goods, supporting ASEAN’s own exports to advanced economies, increasingly it is also in final goods, displacing local industry and jobs. Meanwhile, ASEAN exports to China have declined 3% since 2022, contributing to growing trade deficits and incipient trade tensions. China’s industrial overcapacity, in lower-end as well as advanced manufacturing sectors—manifesting in surging volumes of artificially low-priced Chinese exports—is displacing ASEAN exports to third markets, threatening the region’s broader industrial health and development. ASEAN is increasingly becoming the key offshore manufacturing base for Chinese companies, particularly in the clean energy sector. While this investment can support the region’s energy transition and enhance global competitiveness in these important technologies, these products are at the center of overcapacity tensions with China, threatening to put ASEAN in the crosshairs of global trade responses. While ASEAN has benefited from integration into Chinese supply chains, the United States, the EU, and other economies, including Japan and India, are intensifying their scrutiny of exports from Chinese companies operating in or processed through third countries. ASEAN governments now face a double balancing act: managing growing economic integration with China while contending with mounting pressure from advanced economies to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. At the same time, ASEAN must balance leveraging Chinese cheap imports and growing investments to drive industrial growth against the risk of these inputs overwhelming domestic industries and limiting their own industrial development. These tensions ASEAN faces are already building and are likely to be sharpened and accelerated under new Trump administration tariffs and China’s decoupling efforts. These evolving tensions also cast doubt on the extent to which China can meaningfully shift exports to ASEAN and other emerging markets as it faces growing trade restrictions from the United States and the EU. To address these challenges, ASEAN must prioritize strengthening trade tools and enhancing regional coordination to manage import surges, while continuing to invest in its own competitiveness. Diversifying its supply chains from increasing reliance on China will be critical to reducing vulnerabilities. Leveraging institutional frameworks under the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) and the Regional and Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) can help ASEAN navigate external pressures while safeguarding its industrial growth. At the same time, the U.S. and other major economies should proactively engage ASEAN on their overcapacity and de-risking concerns related to China, to help ASEAN remain a key partner in their own supply chain diversification efforts.
- Topic:
- Exports, Manufacturing, Industry, ASEAN, Supply Chains, Regional Economy, and De-Risking
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
754. China-Russia Relations Since the Start of the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Asia Sociey
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- In the 19th century, like Western powers and Japan, Russia participated in the “Scramble for China”; however, unlike the others, it never returned the vast territories it annexed. After a long and turbulent history of Sino-Russian relations, Mikhail Gorbachev launched the Soviet “turn to Asia” policy in July 1986 with his Vladivostok speech. Addressing the Chinese directly, he declared: “I would like to dwell on the most important issue in our relations. These relations are extremely important for several reasons, starting from the fact that we are neighbors, that we share the world’s longest land border, and that we, our children, and grandchildren are destined to live near each other ‘forever and ever.’”1 This policy was reaffirmed by President Vladimir Putin after he came to power in 2000, reinforced during the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and further intensified following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That year, China and Russia signed lengthy and grandiloquent declarations celebrating their “no-limits friendship,” prominently showcased during commemorations in Moscow marking the 80th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany. Yet this no-limits friendship, while rhetorically expansive, has never been formalized and contains several clear limitations — limitations the current U.S. administration has unsuccessfully attempted to exploit. This paper examines the China-Russia relationship and its often-contradictory evolution. The strategic dynamic between these two Eurasian powers has produced a partnership further solidified by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, despite Beijing’s attempts to mediate the conflict. While the strength of this partnership may make it appear unbreakable, it should not preclude continued dialogue between China and the West — particularly the European Union and its member states. The EU–China summit held in Beijing on July 24, however, did not yield the expected results in this regard.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia
755. Xi’s Personal Priorities: What Matters Most to China’s Leader?
- Author:
- Neil Thomas and Lobsang Tsering
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Time is a politician’s most precious resource. Every decision to attend a meeting, launch an initiative, or deliver a speech involves trade-offs. Unlike budgets or personnel, time cannot be expanded or replenished. How a leader allocates their time reveals their priorities. Xi Jinping is acutely aware of this reality. “To realize the China Dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, we must race against time,” he declared in January 2020. State media claimed that on an “ordinary day,” Xi sleeps just six hours and works through every meal. Li Zhanshu, Xi’s former chief of staff, summarized his work tempo in one word: “fast.” This urgency helps explain why Xi wants to become the “chairman of everything,” replacing collective leadership with personalized rule, sidelining colleagues, and centralizing decision-making within Chinese Communist Party (CCP) bodies under his direct control. Yet even a leader as powerful and driven as Xi cannot do everything. So how does Xi spend his time? It is impossible to know for sure, but a useful proxy could be official statements about actions that he has taken “personally” (qinzi). In particular, CCP media have mentioned several policies that Xi has “personally planned, personally arranged, and personally promoted” (qinzi mouhua, qinzi bushu, qinzi tuidong). The Center for China Analysis has compiled a database of these policies. Analysis suggests that Xi pays special attention to regional development projects, internal CCP governance, and environmental protection. Notably absent are indications of personal involvement in key political economy issues such as consumption, demographics, healthcare, public finance, and welfare reform. For policymakers and businesses seeking leverage or opportunity in China, understanding Xi’s priorities is a critical starting point.
- Topic:
- Leadership, Domestic Politics, Xi Jinping, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
756. The People’s Republic of Wellness: Why Beijing Worries About Well-Being
- Author:
- G. A. Donovan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Wellness is booming in China as more people engage in activities that promote healthier living, emotional balance, and spiritual growth. Interest in living well has grown steadily as living standards rise and China undergoes radical social and economic change. More people are facing financial distress amid a slowing economy, and younger generations struggle with intense academic pressure and limited employment opportunities. Wellness trends gained steam during the COVID-19 pandemic, which accelerated the shift from materialism toward a search for spirituality and meaning. Maintaining a harmonious and stable social environment is central to the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy. Beijing recognizes the value of many popular wellness trends and actively encourages those that align with its interest in fostering citizens’ well-being and improving public morale. As people struggle to manage the stress of daily living and define wellness and the good life on their own terms, building a harmonious society has become a major challenge for China’s leaders. In an attempt to manage this friction, they increasingly focus propaganda efforts on highlighting the country’s economic and technological achievements and their assertiveness in the trade conflict with the United States.
- Topic:
- Economy, Public Health, Society, and Well-Being
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
757. Australians Vote for the Steady Center
- Author:
- Anthony Bubalo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- On May 3, the Australian Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, returned to power. It was a remarkable result. First-term governments in Australia usually get a second term, but typically with a reduced majority. Not only did Labor increase its majority, but the size of its victory has probably consigned their main political rivals — a Coalition of the Liberal Party and the rural-based National Party — to Opposition for at least the next two terms of government. The result has been so politically traumatic that the two Opposition parties have torn up their Coalition agreement for the first time since 1987. Foreign and defense policy did not really feature in the election campaign. The result suggests there will not be too much change in Australia’s approach to the world. But the election also hints at the challenge the government will face balancing domestic and international priorities. By highlighting U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Australia, it also points to how managing the alliance may become a little trickier in Albanese’s new term.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
758. The Sources of Southeast Asian Discontent Over Gaza
- Author:
- Meghan Murphy
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- On January 19, 2025, countries around the world, including the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), breathed a sigh of relief when a tentative ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was announced by mediators—the United States, Egypt, and Qatar—hoping it would mean an end to the bloodshed. The most recent iteration of the nearly seven-decades-long conflict began on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an attack that killed 1,195 Israelis, and it has since resulted in more than 60,000 Palestinian casualties and the destruction of much of the Gaza Strip by the Israeli Defense Forces. Central to the conversation around the war has been the role of Washington, which, as Israel’s strongest ally, has provided the country with more than $17.9 billion in security assistance since October 2023. Then-president-elect Donald Trump claimed credit for the deal, writing on Truth Social that it occurred as a result of his peace-seeking administration winning the November 2024 presidential election. However, the ceasefire agreement collapsed after his inauguration; the situation in Palestine has only worsened during a two-month-long Israeli blockade on humanitarian aid to Gaza. As President Trump embarked on a trip to the Gulf States in mid-May, it was not just Middle Eastern states that were closely watching the administration’s policy on Gaza, but also the countries of Southeast Asia, where many policymakers remain concerned with what will happen next. Several states—especially Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia—have maintained a deep frustration with what they perceive as American-approved Israeli war tactics and, as of early February, with the Trump administration’s plan to “take over Gaza.” In its first months in office, the Trump foreign policy team has tried to indicate that it is committed to continuing strong diplomatic efforts in the Indo-Pacific despite uncertainty on trade and security policies. In Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s first week in office, he spoke with his counterparts in three Southeast Asian countries—the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam—where he raised concerns regarding China’s behavior in the South China Sea. However, if the Trump administration is committed to countering China in the region through strengthening diplomatic relations and military cooperation with Southeast Asian nations, it will have to address the concerns of those countries that are deeply angered by the ongoing war in Gaza. To better understand why these countries have responded as they have, it is crucial to understand the decades-long history connecting Palestine to Southeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Treaties and Agreements, Public Opinion, Ceasefire, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Southeast Asia
759. A New Triangle: The Interplay Between China and EU-India Relations
- Author:
- Philippe Le Corre
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- China has shaped the U.S.-India relationship for decades.1 Today, another significant triangle is emerging: the China-EU-India relationship. Indian and European leaders are strengthening ties. Both view China as a formidable economic and security rival while regarding the United States as a key security partner (and, for Europe, a long-standing ally). What is the current state of EU-China and EU-India relations? As India’s influence and economic appeal grow, could it become a viable alternative to China for European business leaders and policymakers? How is Brussels incorporating India into its strategies to address a potential crisis in Asia or the broader Indo-Pacific? Twenty-five years ago, the European Union viewed China as a top priority for business, cultural exchanges, and diplomacy. Following the introduction of Beijing’s open-door policy in 1978 and with strong encouragement from Chinese authorities, European companies flocked to China. Initially, many Europeans used Hong Kong as an intermediary for business, but by the mid-1990s, Guangdong Province and Shanghai became key gateways to the Chinese market, particularly for Germany and France.2 Trade and investment surged, especially after China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, which was widely supported by European political and business elites. Today, China remains the EU’s largest trading partner, with substantial European investments across the mainland. In contrast, India was long viewed as a potential partner, but only a few EU member states took steps to forge a strategic partnership with New Delhi. European investments in India were — and still are — limited, with many corporations citing challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, market access barriers, and bureaucratic red tape, which make it difficult to operate in most Indian states. However, the mood has begun to shift. On the EU side, the European Commission’s 2019 China strategy characterized Beijing as “a partner, a competitor, and a systemic rival.” The COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted direct links between Europe and China from 2020 to 2022, caused significant strain. This was followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, an event many on the continent perceive as having Beijing’s tacit support. Additional factors, including an increasingly authoritarian regime at home and a more assertive China abroad, have contributed to European perceptions,3 as explained at length by the Center for China Analysis’s latest Global Public Opinion on China project.4 This, in turn, has affected the EU-China relationship, which has been gradually downgraded from the “honeymoon” period of 1995–2015. On the other hand, the strengthening EU-India relationship is a relatively recent development, driven by several factors that have emerged in the wake of the pandemic. These include the rise of the ambitious Bharatiya Janata Party under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who first took office in 2014 and is now serving his third term, as well as a broader diversity of partnerships between the EU and India. Other factors influencing EU-India relations include the growing assertiveness of the People’s Republic of China and the United States’ shift away from multilateralism during President Donald Trump’s first term (2017–2021). Since January 2025, the increasing probability of a break in the transatlantic alliance under the new Trump administration is leading the EU to look for new partners, including in the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, India’s robust GDP growth — 6.6% in 2025 and a projected 6.7% in 2026 — has attracted European businesses.5 In a global environment defined by multipolarity, could the previously low-profile EU-India relationship evolve into a closer partnership? With EU-China relations facing significant challenges, might India emerge as a viable alternative Asian partner for Europe? The current EU-India relationship is described as “strategic.” In reality, it is partial and uneven, and there are major differences in the nature of relations between India and individual EU member states. Meanwhile, how does Beijing view its competitor in the Global South as it seeks to win over Europe’s support? This paper explores the dynamics of the interaction among these three powers in the rapidly changing geopolitical context. It examines India’s political and economic challenges in the context of the EU-China relationship, how the EU-India relationship is evolving, and whether an EU-India partnership could take center stage if tensions with China escalate. European countries have kept strong ties with the Global South, and some see a strong India as a potential bridge for fostering cooperation in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, India, and Asia
760. EU-Taiwan Relations: Navigating PRC Pressure, U.S.-China Competition, and Trump’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Simona Grano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- This paper first explores the growing relationship between the European Union and Taiwan by focusing on recent interactions. It then discusses the broader geopolitical implications of Trump’s “America First” policy and how the U.S.-China competition impacts the EU’s ability to strategically balance the China-Taiwan dynamic. The paper demonstrates how a number of variables, including Europe’s strategic interests in the region, the U.S. position on China, and the U.S.-EU relationship under the second Trump administration, will influence ties between the EU and Taiwan. The shift in EU-Taiwan ties has gone largely unnoticed. The EU has started paying more attention to Taiwan’s security, shifting away from its former focus on China for its importance in trade and investment. This shift is partly due to supply chain and security concerns and partly due to growing political apprehension about China’s long-term goals. In the coming years, Europe will be influenced by the Trump administration when deciding how to handle Taiwan. The EU will have to find a balance between the need for steady access to vital technology and U.S.-EU relations. At the same time, the EU and the United States seem to have entered a critical phase in their bilateral relationship, especially concerning the war in Ukraine and Washington’s warming relationship with Moscow. This indeterminate situation may also impact the EU’s relationship with both Taiwan and China, the consequences of which will take several months to fully gauge.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
761. ASEAN Caught Between China’s Export Surge and Global De-Risking
- Author:
- Brendan Kelly and Shay Wester
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- ASEAN, long a beneficiary of China’s rapid growth and global supply chain integration, now faces mounting pressures as Chinese industrial overcapacity spills into the region. ASEAN has thus far largely stayed out of growing global trade tensions around China’s industrial policies, much as it did during earlier U.S.-China trade disputes, while benefiting from investment and trade from all sides and deeper integration into Chinese supply chains that support growing exports to global markets. However, ASEAN faces increasing pressures from four key trends, each of which is accelerating, pointing to a more challenging time ahead for ASEAN policymakers and businesses. These developments are increasingly putting ASEAN in the middle of economic challenges and global reactions to China and its industrial overcapacity. China’s exports to ASEAN are growing rapidly, exceeding its exports to the United States and the European Union (EU) since 2023, and up a further 12% in 2024. While most of this growth has been in intermediate goods, supporting ASEAN’s own exports to advanced economies, increasingly it is also in final goods, displacing local industry and jobs. Meanwhile, ASEAN exports to China have declined 3% since 2022, contributing to growing trade deficits and incipient trade tensions. China’s industrial overcapacity, in lower-end as well as advanced manufacturing sectors—manifesting in surging volumes of artificially low-priced Chinese exports—is displacing ASEAN exports to third markets, threatening the region’s broader industrial health and development. ASEAN is increasingly becoming the key offshore manufacturing base for Chinese companies, particularly in the clean energy sector. While this investment can support the region’s energy transition and enhance global competitiveness in these important technologies, these products are at the center of overcapacity tensions with China, threatening to put ASEAN in the crosshairs of global trade responses. While ASEAN has benefited from integration into Chinese supply chains, the United States, the EU, and other economies, including Japan and India, are intensifying their scrutiny of exports from Chinese companies operating in or processed through third countries. ASEAN governments now face a double balancing act: managing growing economic integration with China while contending with mounting pressure from advanced economies to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains. At the same time, ASEAN must balance leveraging Chinese cheap imports and growing investments to drive industrial growth against the risk of these inputs overwhelming domestic industries and limiting their own industrial development. These tensions ASEAN faces are already building and are likely to be sharpened and accelerated under new Trump administration tariffs and China’s decoupling efforts. These evolving tensions also cast doubt on the extent to which China can meaningfully shift exports to ASEAN and other emerging markets as it faces growing trade restrictions from the United States and the EU. To address these challenges, ASEAN must prioritize strengthening trade tools and enhancing regional coordination to manage import surges, while continuing to invest in its own competitiveness. Diversifying its supply chains from increasing reliance on China will be critical to reducing vulnerabilities. Leveraging institutional frameworks under the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA) and the Regional and Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) can help ASEAN navigate external pressures while safeguarding its industrial growth. At the same time, the U.S. and other major economies should proactively engage ASEAN on their overcapacity and de-risking concerns related to China, to help ASEAN remain a key partner in their own supply chain diversification efforts.
- Topic:
- Economic Growth, Exports, ASEAN, Supply Chains, and De-Risking
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Southeast Asia
762. What to Watch at China’s Two Sessions in 2025
- Author:
- Neil Thomas and Jing Qian
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- The annual Two Sessions is the closest thing to a carnival in Chinese politics. Thousands of leaders, bureaucrats, experts, reporters, and celebrities from across the country flock to Beijing for a week of political pageantry. While the premier’s annual “state of the union” address is more restrained than its American counterpart — U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to address a joint session of Congress just a day earlier — it remains a key indicator of China’s economic direction. The Two Sessions refers to the concurrent annual meetings of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which opens on March 4, and the National People’s Congress (NPC), which begins on March 5. These meetings are expected to conclude on or around March 11. Both institutions answer to the Chinese Communist Party, led by General Secretary Xi Jinping. The CPPCC National Committee, with 2,169 members, serves as the overarching organization of the United Front system, which mobilizes various social groups to support and advise the Party. Meanwhile, the NPC, with 2,977 delegates, functions as a single-chamber parliament that is, at least notionally, the supreme organ of state power. Anticipation surrounding this year’s event has been heightened by a rare “symposium on private enterprises” that Xi hosted on February 17, attended by some of the country’s top entrepreneurs. This uncommon symposium, last held in 2018, raised hopes for China’s struggling economy — particularly following the January return of President Trump, a self-proclaimed “tariff king” who has already imposed an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports. Now, attention shifts to how much Beijing is willing to boost stimulus, support businesses, and respond to Trump’s trade policies. The Two Sessions is expected to reveal a more pro-growth agenda compared to last year, with approximate targets of 5% for GDP growth, 4% of GDP for the fiscal deficit ratio, and 2% for consumer inflation. Further stimulus will come from roughly 3 trillion yuan in ultralong special treasury bonds and 4.5–5 trillion yuan in local government special-purpose bonds. Measures to boost consumer spending and encourage private-sector innovation will also be introduced. While Beijing aims to stabilize growth, it is unlikely to unleash the proverbial “bazooka” stimulus, as it needs to conserve fiscal resources for a potential trade war. Similarly, sweeping structural reforms remain improbable as the government remains committed to Xi’s vision of high-tech industrial self-reliance.
- Topic:
- Reform, Economic Growth, Domestic Politics, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
763. China’s Middle Class Searches for Faith and Meaning
- Author:
- John Osburg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- Members of China’s urban middle class — long assumed to be the most secular segment of Chinese society — are turning to religion and spirituality in greater numbers. Rejecting officially sanctioned religious institutions and state-promoted ideology, many urbanites are seeking alternatives considered less tainted by party-state interference. Independent Christian churches, Tibetan Buddhist teachers, and New Age workshops are attracting increasing numbers of affluent, well-educated urban Chinese looking for authentic spiritual experiences and a sense of community, some of whom mix aspects of different religions to create their own personal spiritual practices. Growing interest in religious communities at the margins of state control reflects the failure of official ideology to provide spiritual comfort and the party-state’s lack of moral authority. Attempts by Beijing to co-opt religious institutions through “Sinicization” have undermined their spiritual authority. “Boss Christians” fund their own churches to gain social status and legitimize their wealth, while a growing number of intellectuals see Christian values as a model for reforming China’s government and society. Members of China’s elite who convert to Tibetan Buddhism say they value its purity and intellectually rigorous philosophy, which they contrast to the corrupted, diluted teachings of Han Chinese Buddhism.
- Topic:
- Religion, Christianity, Secularism, Buddhism, Middle Class, and Society
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
764. China’s Views on Escalation and Crisis Management and Implications for the United States
- Author:
- Lyle Morris
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- China lacks experience dealing with military crises and has attempted to compensate by investing considerable intellectual capital to develop theories and strategies for managing escalation with potential adversaries. China’s military strategists believe that if a crisis breaks out, it can be “controlled,” and escalation can be “managed” by applying scientific principles and advanced military technology. People’s Liberation Army strategists have developed a conceptual framework for managing crises called “effective control” (youxiao kongzhi) — a flexible, graduated tool designed to guide political and military action during times of tension. Due to an overreliance on theoretical underpinnings, China believes it can control all facets of military escalation. This could make China’s leaders overconfident in their ability to prevail in a conflict and increase the risk of escalation in a military confrontation between China and the United States. The writings of Chinese military strategists omit how China’s behavior may be perceived — or misperceived — by an adversary. Absent is an acknowledgment that China’s actions, such as in space or cyberspace, may be viewed as provocative and grounds for the tit-for-tat escalation that Beijing seeks to avoid. Further research is necessary to explore the actions that China’s military may employ to manage escalation and how adversaries may interpret them.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, Escalation, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
765. Maintaining Regional Stability Amid Complex Regime Transitions in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities for COMESA Member States
- Author:
- Mumo Nzau
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- With a market reach of approximately 600 million people and straddling 21 countries, the COMESA bloc occupies a vast chunk of the continent. Contemporary literature on the region generally points to huge macroeconomic potential in as far as the holistic developmental and wealth creation projections are concerned. Nonetheless, a sizeable number of COMESA countries have, from time to time, experienced phases of complex regime transition, a state of affairs that comes with an aura of regional instability, thereby undermining the prosperity prospects of a trading bloc that boasts a combined GDP of US$ 768 billion. Over the past decade, a sizeable number of these countries have been faced with one form or another of political turmoil and assorted civil strife, especially within the context of regime transitions and/or change of power from one government to the next. Against this background, through the lenses of neofunctionalism and liberal institutionalist theories, this paper examines the question of how best to ensure and/or maintain regional stability in the midst of such complex regime transitions, with the view of teasing out the challenges and opportunities before offering sustainable policy recommendations for COMESA countries.
- Topic:
- COMESA, Regional Stability, Neofunctionalism, Liberal Institutionalism, and Complex Regime Transitions
- Political Geography:
- Africa
766. Terminating Insurgency in Mozambique: Reflections on the SADC Mission In Mozambique
- Author:
- Oita Etyang, Lweendo Kambela, and Stephen Muleya
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The continued threat of insurgency in Mozambique has triggered academic and policy interest in the recent past. Indeed, the ramifications caused by acts of insurgency globally and in Africa remain endemic. This calls for the need to establish sustainable and context-specific interventions at regional and national levels. The Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) regions have not been spared from the lethality of insurgency, with Mozambique morphing into the epicentre of interest. Insurgency has caused untold suffering to communities in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, prompting the deployment of a SADC mission. As a regional peace operation, the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) was deployed on 15 July 2021 following approval by the Extraordinary SADC Summit of Heads of State and Government held in Maputo, Mozambique on 23 June 2021. The main objective of SAMIM was to support the Republic of Mozambique to combat armed groups and acts of insurgency, particularly in the Cabo Delgado province. This article seeks to understand the impact of the SAMIM intervention. It mainly interrogates SAMIM’s mandate, structure, success, challenges and lessons learned using both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies and various open data sources, including programmatic documents.
- Topic:
- Security, Insurgency, Peacekeeping, COMESA, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mozambique, and Cabo Delgado
767. The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend: Ethiopia–Eritrea Relations and the 2020 Conflict in the Tigray Region in Ethiopia
- Author:
- Berita Mutinda Musau
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Abiy Ahmed’s assumption of power in Ethiopia in April 2018 brought positive changes that were lauded internationally but unwelcomed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) –one of the coalition parties in the Ethiopian government. In November 2020, the Ethiopian Federal Government commenced a massive ‘law enforcement operation’ in the Tigray region against the TPLF. Eritrea’s involvement in the conflict alongside the Ethiopian government internationalised it. This article analyses Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray conflict. Since their 1998 border war over the Badme region, Eritrea and Ethiopia have had frosty relations. To date, they are still mending these relationships despite their 2018 rapprochement. This article argues that the alliance of the Ethiopian government with Eritrea against the TPLF could be a case of ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’ and thus examines Ethiopia–Eritrea relations and their strategic considerations that necessitated this alliance. Adopting the realist theory of international relations, the study reviews literature and historically analyses the relations between the two countries. The study’s main objective is to understand their strategic considerations for conflict and cooperation at different times in history and particularly in the Tigray conflict. The study’s findings reveal that amid the Ethiopia‒Eritrea relations are Eritrean‒Tigrayan relations, anchored in issues of identity construction and deconstruction, statehood and sovereignty, animosity, mistrust and apprehension. The study recommends that the relations between Abiy Ahmed’s government, Eritrea and the TPLF should be keenly monitored and managed for the stability of the two countries and the Horn of Africa region.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Armed Conflict, and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Eritrea
768. The East African Community Regional Force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Successes, Challenges and Prospects
- Author:
- Kizito Sabala and Vyalirendi Jacques Muhindo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of more than 20 years of existence of the United Nations Organization Mission in Congo/Mission de l’Organization des Nations Unies au Congo (MONUSCO), the East African Community (EAC) deployed a military force in the eastern part of the country in November 2022. The purpose of the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) was to contribute towards the resolution of the conflict that has ravaged the region for decades, and specifically to neutralise the M23 resurgence and the numerous informal armed groups. The regional economic community that brings together eight countries, namely, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda was doing this for the first time since its establishment in 1999. Slightly over a year since its deployment, and eventual withdrawal in December 2023, there are several questions that arise which are the subject of this article: (i) Why did the EAC deploy EACRF when there is MONUSCO? (ii) to what extent had EACRF achieved its objective? (iii) was the mandate of the regional force appropriate for the situation in eastern DRC and how did it compare to that of MONUSCO? (iv) what are the challenges and prospects for peace, security and political stability in the DRC? While the article relies predominantly on secondary data, it taps into limited primary sources obtained by one of the authors during field humanitarian assignments in different parts in DRC.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Humanitarian Intervention, Military Intervention, and M23
- Political Geography:
- Africa, East Africa, and Democratic Republic of Congo
769. The Farmer–Fulani Herdsmen Clashes and the Socio-Economic Development of North-Western Nigeria: A Case Study of Southern Kaduna
- Author:
- David Villah Dan-Azumi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The clashes between Fulani herdsmen and farmers in Nigeria have become endemic and persistent for decades. Climate change, cattle rustling, expansion of cultivated lands and population growth are among the major drivers of these clashes. However, the trends in the clashes in recent years suggest strong political, religious, ethnic and economic undertones. The recurrent and escalating nature of the violence in recent times is worrisome and despite the existing security efforts at the federal and state levels, the conflict remains unabated. This research examines the farmer–Fulani herdsmen clashes and their impact on the socio-economic development of southern Kaduna state. To explain the multifaceted nature of the clashes and how they affect the livelihoods of the affected communities, the study employs a theory of frustration and conflict, a quantitative research method, a survey research design and inferential statistics to analyse data. Findings from the research show an intricate interplay of socio-political, economic and ethno-religious factors in the violent clashes, a lack of feasible and realistic grazing policies and a lack of strong political will to address the conflict. Based on the research findings, the study recommends the establishment of cattle ranches in accordance with the existing laws on land ownership and robust security measures and structures to anticipate and forestall the recurrent clashes.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Justice, Economic Development, Reconciliation, and Fulani Herdsmen
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
770. Distributive Justice and Land-Related Conflict in Panda Development Area of Nasarawa State, Nigeria
- Author:
- Joshua O. Zachariah and Elias Chukwuemeka Ngwu
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The question of land has increasingly become a major source of conflicts in many parts of Africa. In Nigeria, claims of rights over landholdings and justice administration of land disputes, though of great concern, have received inadequate attention in the literature. In this context, this paper examines Nozickian distributive justice vis-à-vis land-related conflicts in the Panda Development Area (PDA), Nasarawa state, Nigeria. It focuses on perennial delays-cum-unfavourable rectification of unjust landholdings as drivers of conflict in the area. The study employs the survey method of data collection using key-informant interviews. It adopts a qualitative descriptive method to analyse the data. The paper found that over 80% of the population in the study area rely on agriculture, and that there are numerous contestations over land use and ownership. Unfortunately, still, adjudication of these cases lingers unnecessarily, resulting in distrust, antagonisms and violent confrontations. The study recommends fundamental reform of Nigeria’s justice system as it relates to land matters to ensure more equitable distribution of land. Such reform should include the introduction of special courts as well as the mainstreaming of traditional institutions, local and ad-hoc arbitrators into the dispute resolution mechanisms of land-related cases.
- Topic:
- Development, Justice, Peacebuilding, and Land Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
771. The Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia and its Relevance for Peacebuilding
- Author:
- Yohannes Haile Getahun
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- This article deals with the peacebuilding impact of the Transitional Justice Policy of Ethiopia (TJPE) through an explanatory case study approach that contextualises the discourse of transitional justice and peace within the specific context of Ethiopia. Drawing on existing literature on the peace implications of transitional justice systems, the study develops a framework that emphasises the need for a balanced approach that integrates retributive and restorative justice mechanisms. Foregrounding the TJPE, the article identifies both prospects and limitations. The processes of truth-seeking and accountability for past, recent and present human rights abuses, fighting the culture of impunity and building social trust are the primary prospects. However, certain factors could undermine the peacebuilding contributions of the transitional justice programme. These factors include political capture, the politics of striking mutual innocence pacts, predicaments of political legitimacy, harmonising reconciliation and justice and ongoing conflicts. Generally, beyond the textual and institutional design, the political system and its dynamics have much bearing on the effectiveness of the TJPE in bringing about durable peace.
- Topic:
- Transitional Justice, Impunity, Reconciliation, Peacebuilding, and Political Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
772. The Domestic Impact of the ICERD on TRC-Related Prosecutions in South Africa: A Story of Lost Opportunities for Post-Apartheid Justice
- Author:
- Ntokozo Sibanyoni
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD/the Convention) is a response to apartheid in pre-democratic South Africa. Article 6 obliges states to provide reparations to victims of discrimination. However, 31 years into its democracy, South Africa is haunted by a poor record of prosecuting apartheid. While popular discussions focus on the failure of the government to prosecute, this article focuses on the extent of the Convention’s domestic impact on the prosecutions. This contribution uses a working definition of domestic impact, which emphasises the efforts of all stakeholders in the state’s reporting process. The contribution relies on data collected through desktop research and semi-structured interviews with people working on race-related issues, to assess the extent to which article 6 of the Convention has been realized. Arguing that the Convention has made a delayed and limited impact on prosecutions, the article discusses factors that have hindered impact and provides recommendations towards the realisation of article 6 of the Convention.
- Topic:
- Apartheid, Transitional Justice, Justice, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Africa
773. Conflict Resolution Mechanisms for Strengthening Land Tenure Security: A Case of Mvomero District, Tanzania
- Author:
- Samwel Alananga and Christoncia Joyness
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- African Journal on Conflict Resolution
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- In Tanzania, conflicts over land resources between pastoralists and farmers have been pervasive, especially in Mvomero District despite numerous efforts by the government to resolve them. This study is based on secondary data concerning the persistence of conflict, complemented by thematic analysis of six key informant interviews from three villages in Mvomero District: Kambala, Bungoma and Mkindo. The goal is to understand the evolving nature of land conflicts, the effectiveness of conflict-resolution mechanisms and the impacts on both farmers and pastoralists. The findings reveal that efforts to address land conflicts are hindered by several factors: inadequate resources, low levels of knowledge and awareness about land matters, the absence of village land councils, a lack of Village Land Use Plans (VLUPs), especially in pastoralist-dominated villages and insufficient and uncoordinated information. Drawing on theories of principled negotiation and conflict resolution, this paper argues that there is no single resolution strategy suitable for all conflicts, as each setting is unique even within the same village. Nonetheless, coercive methods remain common, with paramilitary and government officials often employed instead of negotiated solutions. Since this approach offers only short-term relief, land conflicts tend to recur repeatedly. In light of these findings, the paper recommends that stakeholders should follow up initial coercive interventions with negotiated approaches to ensure long-term stability. To this end, the effective implementation of the Village Land Act (1999) and the Land Disputes Courts Act (2019) requires the development of operational guidelines and tools that support negotiated solutions in line with the principles of principled negotiation theory.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Land Conflict, Land Tenure Security, and Farmer-Pastoralist Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tanzania
774. Analysing the Root Causes of Armed Conflicts in Northern Ethiopia
- Author:
- Alemu Mullaw
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Armed conflicts that need constructive measurement are rampant in various corners of the world. Currently, there are wars occurring in Europe, Asia, and Africa. Armed conflict can be understood as a battle between two parties, at least one of which is a state government, over a government or territory, using armed forces.1 The notion of conflict is evolving along with understandings of states, borders, relationships, actors, issues, and globalisation. Mary Kaldor described this expanded understanding as ‘New Wars,’ which applies to the 2020 Ethiopian armed conflict.2 Ethiopia maintained its independence during the colonial period and emerged with its present borders and ethnic make-up at the end of the 19th century due to the territorial expansion undertaken by Emperor Menelik II (1889-1913). However, the history of the country is riddled with intra- and inter-state conflicts and it has experienced acute political and economic contradictions.3 The country has been a federal republic since 1994, with the official name of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, subdivided into nine ethnically based regional states (Killil), each with a large degree of autonomy, and two autonomous cities with regional state status, namely Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa.4
- Topic:
- Security, Peace, Armed Conflict, and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
775. The Role of the African Union Peace and Security Council in Promoting the Responsible use of Artificial Intelligence for Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Africa
- Author:
- Victor Obinna Chukwuma
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Petra Molnar wrote that the development of technology ‘reinforces power asymmetries between countries’ and influences ‘our thinking around which countries can push for innovation, while other spaces like conflict zones and refugee camps become sites of experimentation.’1 Africa has been dealing with a perennial refugee crisis. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), ‘Around 30 million internally displaced persons, refugees and asylum-seekers live in Africa, representing almost one-third of the world’s refugee population.’2 As artificial intelligence (AI) is gradually reshaping the way things are done all over the world, governments are turning to novel technologies to streamline processes and reduce administrative burdens and costs in public service delivery, including critical decisions affecting the rights of refugees and asylum seekers. While the deployment of AI for border control seems to be more pronounced in developed countries, it is gradually gaining traction in Africa. African governments are exploring the best ways to harness AI, not just for economic growth but also for improving their security architecture and border control. Indeed, AI can be of immense assistance to Africa in managing the refugee crisis. However, there is a need for deeper engagement on how these technologies may compromise the rights of refugees and asylum seekers in Africa, as it is being done in developed countries today. Whereas a harmful use of AI in refugee settings in Africa can exacerbate the existing crisis, a responsible use of AI can have alleviatory impacts. This research examines the role of the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council (PSC) in this regard.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Artificial Intelligence, UN Security Council, Asylum, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa
776. Critical Reflections on SADC’s approach to Regional Security: The case of SAMIM
- Author:
- Chikondi Chidzanja
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- This article is situated in the broader context of the challenges that peacekeeping, peace enforcement and counterinsurgency (COIN) missions are facing in executing their mandates. Although these challenges have been discussed mainly within the United Nations (UN) peacekeeping contexts, they have extended to the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) context. These challenges are noticeable in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, where the Southern African Development Community (SADC) deployed a mission, the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), with a counterterrorism mandate. This piece reflects on the lessons from the intervention for both SADC and its member states. The lessons focus on the host state’s consent and cooperation, self-funding, coordination with partners and lastly, host state ownership and responsibility for citizen protection. Both at the macro and micro level, the SAMIM intervention provides critical insights into the emerging ad hoc model for RECs as they assume responsibility for security sector governance architecture following gridlocks in the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the crisis of multilateralism. Following the UN General Assembly in 2024, which will be remembered for its overarching theme ‘Pact for the Future,’ the piece focuses on how SADC should navigate the aforementioned lessons to enhance sustainable peace and security in the region. Not many studies have focused on how host state consent, self-funding, coordination with partners, and host state ownership and responsibility can affect REC missions like SAMIM. The key question is the commitment of member states to the use of multilateral regional institutions and how these institutions promote the use of their frameworks to tackle common regional security issues while maintaining local agency. Broadly, some questions are: How can SADC and its member states work towards closer cooperation with consistency and in an adaptive manner without compromising the overall mandate of SADC as a regional body? At the same time, how can SADC member states stop viewing SADC as an afterthought in the peace and security sector?
- Topic:
- Peacekeeping, Counter-terrorism, Protection, Regional Security, and South Africa Development Community (SADC)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mozambique
777. Conflict Resolution by the African Union: Encounters of Peacekeeping Efforts in Somalia
- Author:
- Jacqueline Nakaiza and Charlotte Karungi Mafumbo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Two of the goals set by the African Union (AU) were to promote peace, security and stability for socioeconomic development and to draft an agenda to tackle African problems. The aspiration of African Solutions for African Problems, under the norms of the responsibility to protect (R2P), prompted the AU to take up this responsibility in Somalia. Since the collapse of the state in 1991, Somalia has perpetually failed to secure its territory and protect its populace from self-destruction. It has also failed to respond to disasters, such as famine caused by drought. Somalia is suffering instability caused by Islamist groups who can easily operate in the country due to the absence of state institutions. When the United Nations (UN) Security Council is unwilling to act in a situation crying out for intervention, such as in Somalia, it authorises regional or sub-regional organisations under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter to intervene.1 The Security Council passed Resolution 1744 (2007) under this clause, mandating the AU to deploy troops to Somalia in 2007.2 The initial mandate to stabilise the country and pave the way for a UN Peace Operation was six months long.3 Regarding interventions, Article 4(h) of the AU Constitutive Act clearly states: ‘the AU has the right to intervene in a Member State according to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely: war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity.’4 As such, the protection of the fundamental rights of citizens is not a purely domestic concern and sovereignty cannot shield repressive states from intervention by the AU. This article in the AU Constitutive Act was invoked after the reluctance of the international community to intervene in Somalia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Peacekeeping, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
778. Artisanal Mining in Zimbabwe: A Complex Narrative of Balancing Economic Gains and Social Strife
- Author:
- Rumbidzaishe Matambo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) ‘refers to mining by individuals, groups, families or cooperatives with minimal or no mechanisation, often in the informal (illegal) sector of the market’.1 A distinction can, however, be made between artisanal mining and small-scale mining. Artisanal and small-scale miners rely on basic tools and limited technology to mine gemstones and key minerals and metals such as gold, cobalt, tin, tungsten, and tantalum.2 These materials are vital to the global economy, supporting essential products such as computers, mobile phones, aircraft, medical devices, and rechargeable batteries.3 A significant share of these metals is sourced through ASM. Driven by the steady demand for these goods, artisanal miners persist in their work, often facing dangerous and exploitative conditions, including child labour and other human rights violations.4 Due to limited resources, ASM activities are usually confined to surface and shallow underground mining, representing the simpler side of small-scale mining.5 Historically, ASM is a traditional practice with roots stretching back centuries across various cultures. Since ancient times, artisanal mining has been a core economic activity, supplying materials for adornments, tools, and construction, and was the dominant form of mining until the Industrial Revolution.6
- Topic:
- Crime, Mining, and Livelihoods
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zimbabwe
779. ‘Something for Something’: The Face of Peace and Security in Africa under Trump 2.0
- Author:
- Joel Odota
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- The second Trump Administration is reverberating across global systems – politically, economically, socially, and culturally. The world is observing an increasingly transactional and disruptive foreign policy approach, from dramatic aid cuts to multilateral institutions, such as the United Nations (UN), to militaristic threats in West Asia and elsewhere and a regressive stance on gender rights. One of the defining characteristics of this Administration is the emergent doctrine of ‘something for something,’ whereby the United States (US) engagement in global affairs, particularly in peace and security, is conditional upon tangible benefits – primarily economic or strategic resources. A pertinent example of this approach is the Trump Administration’s reported demand for 50% of Ukraine’s critical minerals – including graphite, uranium, titanium, and lithium – in exchange for continued security assistance.[1] Lithium, essential in battery production for electric vehicles, is of particular strategic interest. A similar arrangement appears to be unfolding in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where the African government is seeking a security deal with Washington in exchange for access to the country’s abundant natural resources. In fact, Trump appointed his in-law Massad Boulos as the Senior Advisor for Africa, and Massad’s first overseas trip was to the DRC, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. The visit was to do two things: to ‘get more momentum on the peace agreement and the peace process in eastern DRC, and also, how to bring US investment to the region in Central Africa and the Great Lakes region.’[2] A review of Senior Advisor Boulos’s professional background reveals a strategic alignment with President Trump’s objectives in the DRC. Boulos brings decades of experience in sectors closely tied to the Administration’s emerging interest in resource-for-security exchanges. Notably, he previously held senior executive roles, including Director of Peugeot Nigeria Ltd., Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Nissan Nigeria Ltd., and Managing Director/CEO of SCOA Nigeria Group. The SCOA Group is a prominent conglomerate engaged in the assembly, distribution, sales, and servicing of a wide range of global brands in sectors such as automotive, construction and mining equipment, agriculture, power generation, oil and gas, and industrial machinery. Additionally, the company has substantial interests in contracting and real estate development. Boulos’s extensive background in extractive industries and infrastructure development, especially within the African context, positions him as a key figure in shaping and advancing Trump’s transactional approach to US-Africa relations, particularly in countries like the DRC where strategic natural resource access is a central concern.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Leadership, Peace, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo
780. The African Union’s Pace of Integration: The Sahelian Crisis as a Challenge to Supranational Expectations
- Author:
- Matteo Peccini
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- This article contributes to the ongoing and dynamic debate surrounding the process of continental integration promoted by the African Union (AU). The article investigates how the African integration process has evolved, particularly from the perspective of peace and security, with a specific focus on the case study of the central Sahel. How can the continental approach to the Sahelian crisis be assessed in light of the AU’s longstanding integrative ambitions in the fields of peace and security? Can the instability in the Sahel be considered a missed opportunity for strengthening the continental response to such a significant crisis? This article reflects on these central questions and proposes the Sahel as a potential lens through which to interpret broader continental dynamics.
- Topic:
- Security, Peacekeeping, Peace, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso
781. The Pitfalls of Regionalising National Dialogues
- Author:
- Chido Mutangadura-Yeswa
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- National dialogues can provide continental and regional actors with entry points to manage political and electoral violence through multi-track diplomacy. Multi-track diplomacy refers to the expansion of international engagement to a multiplicity of levels outside of the traditional diplomatic high-level channels. Multi-track diplomacy is linked to the whole-of-society approach to conflict management. This approach promotes adopting inclusive strategies to transform complex and multi-dimensional conflicts.[1] This shifts the focus away from traditional, high-level engagement among heads of states, diplomats and high-ranking officials. Multi-track diplomacy instead engages multiple conflict stakeholders in coordinated multi-level dialogues. Multi-track diplomacy in Africa translates into regionalising national dialogues because mediators deployed by the African Union (AU) and regional economic communities (RECs) engage with conflict actors largely within state-organised or, at the least, state-sanctioned frameworks. The East African Community’s (EAC) intervention during the Burundi political crisis from 2015 to 2019 demonstrates the opportunities and challenges presented by regionalising national dialogues in peace processes. Burundi’s political crisis was triggered by the presidential candidate nomination of Pierre Nkurunziza by the National Council for the Defence of Democracy – Forces for the Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDD). The CNDD-FDD’s decision caused a political crisis leading to large-scale protests, government crackdowns, an attempted coup d’état, and militia attacks on military garrisons. By 2018, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that over 430 000 refugees had fled the country due to the crisis.[2] The EAC’s Inter-Burundi Dialogue eventually emerged as the main preventive diplomacy intervention with Tanzania’s late former president, Benjamin Mkapa, as the facilitator and Uganda’s president, Yoweri Museveni, as the chief mediator.[3] The Inter-Burundi Dialogue was conducted as a series of multi-track problem-solving workshops between December 2015 and October 2018. The problem-solving workshops were categorised into ecumenical, women, youth, political parties, and business leaders. The initiative ended with the attendees signing non-violence pacts. Additionally, Benjamin Mkapa held consultative meetings with a wide range of actors, from grassroots to high-level government officials and international actors, before each round of the main dialogue. This article looks at how the Inter-Burundi Dialogue provides insights into how crackdowns on civic spaces, lack of formal regional citizen engagement channels, and government’s lack of cooperation complicate attempts to regionalise national dialogues. The article draws upon my PhD research,[4] which examined the role of regional organisations in promoting citizen participation in election violence prevention processes in Africa, and included 35 in-depth interviews with officials from intergovernmental organisations, civil society representatives in Burundi and expert sources.
- Topic:
- Mediation, Regionalization, Peace Process, and National Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Burundi
782. The Palaver Tree and the Notions of National Tribunal and Republican Confessional: Reclaiming the African Conflict Resolution Ethos in National Dialogues
- Author:
- Jean Yves Ndzana Ndzana
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- In the past two decades, national dialogues have become a recurring feature in post-conflict transitions and governance reform across Africa. These processes are often convened to respond to crises of legitimacy, protracted violence, or political fragmentation. While national dialogues are widely acknowledged as participatory mechanisms intended to rebuild social contracts and create pathways for peaceful political transitions, their outcomes have often been mixed. Some have helped usher in new constitutional orders or restore relative stability, while others have collapsed due to elite manipulation, the exclusion of key stakeholders, or a lack of follow-through on agreed-upon resolutions. Despite growing attention from international organisations and regional bodies, such as the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), many national dialogues remain vulnerable to a key limitation: a failure to ground the process in locally legitimate and culturally resonant frameworks of dialogue and consensus-building.[1] One of the critical yet overlooked dimensions in the design of national dialogues in Africa is the limited incorporation of anthropologically grounded approaches to conflict resolution. Indeed, in many instances, these dialogues replicate procedural blueprints modelled on Western liberal notions of deliberation, often emphasising electoral legitimacy, adversarial bargaining, or constitutional legality. However, these externally driven frameworks usually ignore the rich and deeply rooted traditions of communal dialogue, reconciliation, and restorative justice in African societies. As scholars and peace practitioners have increasingly observed, successful peace processes in Africa require not only institutional inclusiveness but also cultural intelligibility.[2] A national dialogue that resonates with local modes of reasoning and social organisation is more likely to secure legitimacy, mobilise trust, and foster sustainable reconciliation.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Tribunal, National Dialogue, and Palaver Trees
- Political Geography:
- Africa
783. National Dialogues in Africa’s Fragile States: Power Struggles, Diversity Management, and the Precarious Fight Against State Collapse
- Author:
- Distinct Obuzor Imaka and Tonye Marclint Ebiede
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conflict Trends
- Institution:
- The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
- Abstract:
- National dialogues have become an increasingly important conflict management tool in countries facing political instability, conflict, or transitions of power. In many African contexts, it is often seen as a last resort by national stakeholders, an attempt to prevent complete collapse or to guide a nation through a significant political shift. Unlike traditional negotiations that usually involve only political elites or those in power, national dialogues are designed to be more inclusive. They bring together a wide range of voices from across society, including opposition groups, civil society, religious leaders, and community representatives. In recent years, this approach has gained prominence in Africa as a response to ongoing crises. While the outcomes of national dialogues have been mixed, they are generally seen as opportunities to reset national priorities, address long-standing grievances, and open pathways toward reform and reconciliation. This article examines the role of national dialogues in Africa’s fragile states, where contested power, deep divisions, and the risk of state collapse shape the political landscape. In such situations, national dialogue has emerged as a way to manage diversity, resolve conflict, and create space for inclusive reform. The article explores how these dialogues navigate power struggles and whether they offer a meaningful path toward long-term stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Peace, Mediation, Fragility, and National Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Africa
784. North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: Views from The Strategist, Volume 10
- Author:
- John Coyne and Henry Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s latest report, North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 10, contains articles published in ASPI’s The Strategist over the last six months. Expanding on previous volumes, this edition introduces thematic chapters focused on a range of subjects relevant to northern Australia. These include: Northern Australia and Defence, Developing Northern Australia, Northern Australia new policy opportunities, Critical Minerals, Energy, and Commodities, Articles are authored by a range of experts across these varied topics. Volume 10 also features a foreword by The Hon Lia Finocchiaro MLA, Chief Minister of the Northern Territory. Chief Minister Finocchiaro calls readers attention to the Northern Territory’s unique place in Australia’s defence history, its enduring strategic importance, and the Territory’s defence capabilities. The 34 articles in this Compendium provide practical policy options which government could implement in the short term. Facilitating both the security and economic prosperity of northern Australia.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Development, Energy, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Northern Australia
785. Northern Australia: securing a developing economy to secure a developed nation
- Author:
- John Coyne and Ian Satchwell
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Northern Australia is central to the nation’s future. Economically, it serves as the gateway to Indo-Pacific trade, is home to world-class resources and represents a frontier of opportunity. Strategically, it’s the keystone of Australia’s national defence posture. Yet, despite its immense importance, the region continues to face persistent structural challenges, including limited private-sector investment; low local economic capture from major projects; workforce and service deficits; and deteriorating public safety indicators. The Northern Australia Action Plan 2024–2029 describes a refreshed agenda for the north, encompassing economic development and delivering on a broad range of government priorities to support the region’s success. Its policy priorities cover many of the north’s needs. The action plan remains framed largely within nationwide policy approaches, however. This report reframes northern Australia not as a peripheral problem but as a developing economy within a developed nation. It calls for a renewed, coordinated investment agenda, treating spending in the north as a nation-building imperative. Inaction will incur higher costs in the future, but it will also expose Australia to intolerable risks. This investment—needed now—needs to be premised on the strategic advantage offered by the North’s space—literally and figuratively—for ideas, initiatives and infrastructure that strengthen the nation’s security and sovereignty through fields such as energy development, trusted and resilient minerals supply chains and military endeavours including with allies, all of which blends government responsibilities, traditional ownership and commercial development. Drawing on a detailed analysis of the Northern Territory (NT) and extending to northern Queensland and northern Western Australia (WA), this report presents a comprehensive, evidence-based argument for nation-building through targeted investment. It highlights not only the economic, security and strategic benefits but also the moral imperative to close the gap in service access, infrastructure quality, and life outcomes. Much of the analysis focuses on the NT, as the economic data for northern Queensland and northern WA is often distorted by the prosperity of those states’ southern regions. That makes it more difficult to isolate the structural challenges unique to the north in those states. However, the NT shares key demographic, geographic and economic characteristics with northern Queensland and WA—including low population density, high infrastructure costs, limited private-sector depth, and service delivery challenges in remote communities—making it a strong proxy for the broader region. The north shouldn’t be treated as a region apart but as the leading edge of Australia’s future prosperity and security. Ten years on from the Australian Government’s 2015 Our north, our future: White Paper on developing northern Australia, and four years since the 2021 Australian Infrastructure Plan, where progress has been mixed, this report outlines actionable recommendations across the federal, state, territory and private-sector domains. Australia is operating within an unstable international environment, involving an uncertain global outlook that doesn’t just include wars in Europe and the Middle East but growing tensions and security threats in the Indo-Pacific. Australia needs to view investment in the North as not just a local prosperity matter but vital for Australia’s long term security, deterrence of adversaries and preparation and resilience should deterrence ever fail and when inevitable natural disasters occur. In this way, this report provides a practical road map to secure a resilient, sovereign and prosperous future for the north and the nation.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Borders, and Research and Development
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Northern Australia
786. Australia-Indonesia defence and security partnership: Overcoming asymmetric aspirations to tackle common threats
- Author:
- Euan Graham and Gatra Priyandita
- Publication Date:
- 08-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Australian officials accustomed to dealing with Indonesia are cognisant of the limitations to strategic cooperation, but Canberra needs to be more realistic and creative in how it approaches the critical relationship with Jakarta. Australia places greater strategic value on the relationship with Indonesia than vice versa. That dynamic is unlikely to change fundamentally. Optimism and ambition will still be needed to achieve a more balanced partnership, but it’s also crucial that Australian policymakers ground their expectations in this reality. Politicians, in particular, should guard against optimism bias. There are still plenty of opportunities for both countries to engage more deeply across a range of shared security challenges. This report analyses the defence and wider security partnership and identifies several areas where Indonesia and Australia should productively concentrate their efforts in the coming years, particularly to counter the rise of hybrid threats. The 2024 Australia–Indonesia Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) is best understood as a continuation of, rather than an acceleration in, the strategic relationship. But it provides Australia with useful avenues to expand its defence relationship with Jakarta, at a time when Indonesia finds itself courted by other countries that don’t share Australia’s security interests. Ultimately, the DCA reflects Canberra’s long-term investment in a defence partnership that can address evolving regional security challenges. From disaster response and maritime patrols to multilateral peacekeeping, the agreement lays the groundwork for a future in which the two countries’ armed forces can operate together effectively. Continued engagement should centre on expanding military training programs, enhancing operational coordination, and exploring new areas of cooperation, especially to counter hybrid threats. The DCA’s future success will depend on the ability of both sides to manage their differing aspirations, motivations and strategic outlooks in a rapidly deteriorating global security environment. Proper management of those differences, rather than avoidance of them, would better position the two countries for practical cooperation on clear common interests but which, too often, is limited to positive prose instead of action. Revitalising the Australia–Indonesia security relationship requires a shift in focus, away from treating defence cooperation as simply an expression of goodwill or strategic alignment and towards framing it as a joint response mechanism to shared vulnerabilities. Australia and Indonesia face a convergence of challenges, such as maritime insecurity, cyberattacks, disinformation, illegal fishing and transnational crime, that affect both nations and undermine the broader stability of the Indo-Pacific. Responses to those shared concerns can still guide the two countries’ defence partnership in the absence of strategic alignment. By investing in functional collaboration—through interoperable training, coordinated hybrid threat responses and trilateral maritime frameworks involving states such as the Philippines—both countries can build a more flexible and purpose-driven security partnership. This approach acknowledges the limitations to cooperation without being paralysed by them, allowing the relationship to evolve around problem-solving rather than the chimera of strategic convergence.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Partnerships, ASEAN, and Strategic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Australia, and Indo-Pacific
787. Match-fit for the global contest?: Innovation, leadership, culture and the future of Australia’s National Intelligence Community
- Author:
- Chris Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The business model of the Australian national intelligence community (NIC), including the ways in which the NIC collects intelligence, analyses that intelligence and then provides it to busy senior customers, is being challenged. At the heart of that challenge lies the NIC’s relationship with innovation and its ability to take advantage of the opportunities that innovation can bring. Innovation matters to Australia because our ability to leverage it will be critical to overcoming Australia’s ‘national capacity’ problem in the coming decades. This problem isn’t new. Australia has always had an inverse relationship between its extensive geography and interests, and its relatively small population. But that’s being exacerbated by the emergent international (and existential) contest in which we’re now engaged and the rapid advances of critical and emerging technologies. The answers to this national capacity problem necessarily involve technology, partnerships— and innovation. Reinvention is hard for all sectors, but it’s particularly hard for intelligence communities, which operate with such high degrees of secrecy. But, to keep pace with larger partners and to keep ahead of adversaries, innovation is absolutely essential. It’s needed so the NIC can develop more sustainable and creative ways to serve its customers, and the NIC also needs to fundamentally, and continuously, rethink the value it provides to them. Despite growing investment, all intelligence communities can struggle to reinvent themselves—and invest in the right capabilities and technologies— as they deal with multiple global conflicts and the unrelenting pace of change. In order to inform the findings and recommendations contained in this report, ASPI conducted a range of semi-structured, qualitative interviews with 28 former and current Australian national-security officials, industry representatives, and those with comparable experience of the UK’s national-security system. The interviews focused on the topics of leadership; technology; risk and experimentation; culture; partnerships; and public engagement and transparency. This report makes five key recommendations, including in relation to actively promoting the concept and practice of ‘intelligent failure’ in the service of innovation; incorporating an appreciation of the impact of secure workspace design and operation on the effectiveness of the work carried out within those spaces; expediting the 2024 Independent Intelligence Review’s own recommendations in relation to national-security technology; an urgent, classified audit of Australia’s sovereign intelligence capability resilience; and preparation of the NIC for the impending (and different) future of intelligence production.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, National Security, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Research and Development
- Political Geography:
- Australia
788. A critical juncture: Sustaining and strengthening the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security
- Author:
- Chris Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 07-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- As Australia navigates an increasingly complex security landscape, the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security (PJCIS) stands at a crossroads. With cyber threats, foreign interference, grey-zone competition, and the prospect of Indo-Pacific conflict reshaping our national security, the need for robust, adaptive oversight of intelligence agencies has never been more pressing. This report from ASPI’s Statecraft and Intelligence Policy Centre underscores the need to reform and reinforce the PJCIS to ensure it remains an effective pillar of democratic accountability for Australian intelligence. Key to that reform will be refocusing the future work of the committee back towards intelligence oversight. Strengthening the PJCIS’s structure, clarifying its remit, and enhancing its resources are essential to maintaining public trust and ensuring effective oversight of the national intelligence community. The reforms outlined in this report offer a roadmap for renewal – one that the next chair of the PJCIS can seize with urgency and resolve.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, National Security, Cybersecurity, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Asia-Pacific
789. Shifting the needle: Making Australia’s research security ecosystem work smarter
- Author:
- Brendan Walker-Munro
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Since 2018, the Australian Government has made serious strides in countering espionage and foreign interference, including introducing policy and legislative reforms aimed at protecting the research and university sector. That was necessary. Foreign states have actively targeted Australia’s research ecosystem—seeking to influence research agendas, extract sensitive information and exploit institutional vulnerabilities. However, the threat landscape hasn’t remained static. It has evolved—and rapidly. Seven years on, adversaries are no longer simply stealing data or cultivating informal relationships. Today, we’re seeing deliberate efforts to insert malicious insiders, target researchers through transnational repression, exploit data and cyber vulnerabilities, and manipulate legal frameworks through lawfare. Those methods are more sophisticated, more targeted and more integrated than ever before. Responding to them requires more than a continuation of current practice—it demands a fundamental shift in mindset. Security must now be built on persistent adaptation and shared responsibility, not one-off compliance measures. Yet the tools available to respond are lagging. Australia still lacks a clear, consistent national definition of ‘research security’—a gap that has bred confusion, resistance and fatigue across the university and research sectors. For many, security remains synonymous with red tape, rather than resilience. Meanwhile, government controls are fragmented across portfolios and jurisdictions, with no centralised leadership akin to the Counter Foreign Interference Taskforce. Heavy reliance on ministerial discretion and legislative blunt force undermine the goal of shared, sector-wide ownership. At the same time, we must acknowledge that universities aren’t government agencies. They’re complex, competitive, globally connected institutions working under immense financial pressure and regulatory complexity. Building sustainable research security means recognising those realities—not as excuses, but as critical inputs into any effective framework. Encouragingly, there is some movement. The Group of Eight has stepped forward with a national security and defence committee, co-chaired by Major General (Ret’d) Paul Symon and Lieutenant General (Ret’d) Rick Burr, to strengthen trust and coordination with government. But those are early steps. To protect Australia’s sovereign research capability into the future, we need more tailored, practical and scalable approaches to research security. They must be clear in purpose, flexible enough to adapt to changing threats, and sensitive to the day-to-day realities of research collaboration. Above all, they must be nationally coherent and built on partnership—not paternalism. The integrity of our research ecosystem isn’t just a matter of academic ethics. It’s a matter of national security, future capability, and Australia’s ability to compete in a world increasingly shaped by strategic technologies and knowledge dominance. This requires a set of consistent, coherent and high-level principles that informs strong applied policy guidance. This report outlines Australia’s comprehensive and globally leading approach to research security. However, it also makes clear that the threats that are confronting Australia are adapting, and so Australia’s approach will similarly need to adapt. The report argues that Australia’s research security posture must evolve, moving beyond the narrow lens of countering foreign interference and espionage to a broader, more integrated and risk-based framework.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Research and Development
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Asia-Pacific
790. North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 11
- Author:
- John Coyne and Susan Thomson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre’s latest report, North of 26 degrees south and the security of Australia: views from The Strategist, Volume 11, contains articles published in ASPI’s The Strategist over the last six months. Expanding on previous volumes, this edition introduces thematic chapters focused on a range of subjects relevant to northern Australia. These include; 1. Defence, 2. Critical minerals, 3. Supply chain resilience, 4.Environmental disaster preparedness, Articles are authored by a range of experts across these varied topics. Volume 11 also features a foreword by Senator the Hon Nita Green, Assistant Minister for Northern Australia. Senator Green calls readers attention to the Federal Government’s commitment to the North, while pointing to the rich opportunities available to northern Australia with the right continued investment. The 34 articles in this Compendium provide practical policy options which government could implement in the short term and the articles work together to create an overarching narrative that centres northern excellence. Thus, facilitating both the security and economic prosperity of northern Australia.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Defense Industry, Supply Chains, and Critical Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Australia, Asia-Pacific, and Northern Australia
791. Mapping India-Pakistan military power
- Author:
- Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan and Linus Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2025
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Security competition between India and Pakistan, rooted in the territorial dispute over Kashmir, has persisted since the partition of British India in 1947. Since the 1990s, Pakistan’s support for insurgent and terrorist groups in Indian-administered Kashmir has posed a persistent challenge to Indian security. While both countries have maintained nuclear arsenals since the late 1980s, the threat of escalation has historically constrained India’s responses. However, India’s posture has shifted in recent years, with a growing willingness to conduct overt cross-border strikes and covert operations targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan. This evolution has been marked by key incidents, including the 2016 Uri attack and India’s surgical strikes, the 2019 Pulwama bombing and Balakot air strike, and the April 2025 Pahalgam attack, which triggered a series of retaliatory strikes by both sides. India’s targeting of major Pakistani air bases in 2025 marked a significant escalation, raising concerns about strategic stability. China’s role further complicates the regional picture. As Pakistan’s close ally and India’s primary military rival, China’s growing involvement—through arms transfers and strategic coordination—has led Indian planners to seriously consider the possibility of a two-front war. This ASPI brief provides a overview of the current military balance between India and Pakistan, with a focus on quantitative comparisons of defence spending, conventional military capabilities, and strategic assets. India has consistently maintained a superior conventional military force, particularly in terms of major equipment categories, shaping the strategic calculus on both sides.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Military Affairs, Strategic Competition, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Asia-Pacific
792. The cost of Defence: ASPI Defence Budget Brief 2025-2026
- Author:
- Marc Ablong
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Australia faces a perilous strategic environment with multiple threats overlapping and, in some cases, converging. We’re confronted simultaneously by the rise of aggressive authoritarian powers, multiple conflicts around the world, persistent and evolving terrorism, foreign interference and the normalisation of cyberwarfare. Our largest trading partner, China, is increasingly aggressive militarily and has growing control of critical technologies integral to our societies. In Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific region, rearmament is underway, including increased prospects of nuclear proliferation. Australia is a part of that rearmament, though others are moving much faster. Great powers flout the international rules-based system, either seeking to expand their spheres of influence, as Russia and China are doing, or pursuing a transactional and user-pays form of vassalage in the case of the US under the Trump administration. To be clear: the actions of the US are not comparable to those of Russia and China, but the administration’s tendency to treat all countries the same, without separating friend from foe, is causing unhelpful disruption and adding to global uncertainty. Many countries’ politics are become more partisan and prone to populist movements, fuelled by social-media outrage and demagoguery. Hybrid attacks on critical national infrastructure, internet-connected systems and the political foundations and institutions of states are becoming more common. Trust in public institutions is eroding, and cynicism is rising and often turning into belief in conspiracies. We’re reminded in the ministerial forewords to almost all public national-security documents that there’s no greater responsibility for the government than defending Australia. Part of that most fundamental responsibility is the obligation of government to resource the national-security community appropriately to prepare the nation for the challenges it faces. That’s why, this year, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute has broadened its budget brief, The cost of Defence, beyond its traditional focus on the budget of the Department of Defence. The security challenges that Australia faces cannot, and should not, be borne by Defence and our armed forces alone. For too long, Australian governments have partitioned Australia’s security and failed to deliver a comprehensive approach to national security. ASPI has been vocal in calling for comprehensive national-security planning, and now we reflect that by examining the government’s national-security spending as a whole. Moreover, The cost of Defence: ASPI defence budget brief 2025–26 thoroughly examines the government’s progress with, and spending on, the 2024 National Defence Strategy. The core of the strategy is the concept of national defence, defined as ‘a coordinated, whole-of-government and whole-of-nation approach that harnesses all arms of national power to defend Australia and advance our interests’. This year’s Cost of Defence therefore asks some more fundamental and strategic questions and evaluates whether the government is paying enough attention to the traditional strategy calculation of ends, ways and means. Has it identified and articulated the objectives that meet Australia’s strategic intents, as set out in the 2023 Defence Strategic Review and the 2024 National Defence Strategy? Has it chosen the best plans for meeting those objectives? And has it allocated enough resources for those plans? We also examine whether the government is giving enough attention to the nation’s preparedness and resilience. This is a major theme for ASPI in 2025. The 2025 ASPI Defence Conference: Preparedness and Resilience will focus on those challenges for Australia, including how they bear on our industry, civil society and relationships with international partners. This year’s Cost of Defence provides ASPI’s views as a lead-in to that conversation. Another issue is whether the government is too focused on future equipment acquisitions, rather than the preparedness and readiness of the current force. Given that most of the major acquisitions won’t arrive until well into the 2030s and 2040s, we must ask the unnerving question of whether the ADF is too hollow for military operations this decade. Can the ADF we have now deter adversaries from attempting military domination in our area of primary interest? The issue has been on the country’s mind since a Chinese flotilla this year sailed close to Australia, conducted live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea and rehearsed strikes on Australia’s cities, national infrastructure and joint military facilities. Finally, this year’s Cost of Defence asks the hard questions about whether the government’s rhetoric about a once-in-a-generation investment in defence and about the criticality of Australia’s defence industry base, national economic base and resilience is being matched by resources. This includes money in the latest Budget for 2025–26 and the forward estimates and, perhaps more importantly, human capital in the form of a larger skilled workforce. There are also the strategies, concepts and interagency, intergovernmental and international engagements that government must be delivering. We argue, as we did last year, that resourcing isn’t matching the rhetoric. We suggest that, in part, that’s because the implementation of strategy has been frustrated by bureaucratic, time-consuming and inefficient processes. In a first for the Cost of Defence series, we recommend ways for the government and the Defence Department to shift the dial towards agility, adaptability, effectiveness and efficiency. That includes increased and more effective messaging on why defence investment is needed. Whatever percentage of GDP the government spends on defence, it is a large number, and not enough has been done to foster public support for the defence spending required to deter the types of conflicts we see in Europe and elsewhere. Governments shouldn’t wait for public pressure to make security decisions, but a measure of social licence is needed for defence investment, and that in turn takes candour about the gravity of the threats we face. ASPI’s charter requires us to inform and nurture public debate on defence and security and to provide alternative advice for the government. The cost of Defence does so objectively, sharing the government’s and Defence’s aim of strengthening Australia’s long-term security, prosperity and sovereignty. It’s never been more important for experts inside and outside the Australian Public Service to speak truth to power frankly and fearlessly in order to give decision-makers the strongest possible suite of options. We don’t expect all readers to agree with our positions. Indeed, we welcome debate and disagreement in the hope that Australia will be stronger, more prepared and more resilient for the challenges we confront now and will face in the future.
- Topic:
- Economics, Armed Forces, Artificial Intelligence, Defense Industry, Research and Development, and AUKUS
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
793. Building national preparedness: A road map for Australia and what we should learn from Finland
- Author:
- Marc Ablong
- Publication Date:
- 05-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Australia faces increasing threats from natural disasters, pandemics and geopolitical tensions—including the increasing likelihood of conflict and war—necessitating robust preparedness mechanisms. But Australia lacks a comprehensive national preparedness framework that’s fit for purpose against the broad range of threats that the nation is likely to face soon and in the foreseeable future. Beyond a narrow range of potential crises, Australia remains poorly prepared, and little government attention is currently paid to understanding or resourcing national preparedness for threats, beyond annually reviewed natural-disaster arrangements. The Australian Government isn’t doing enough to prepare Australian citizens for the more volatile and uncertain strategic environment that we face. There’s no regular public discourse about the national risks to Australia, there’s no planning or capability development for mitigating such risks, and there’s no regular program for educating, training or exercising Australia’s communities to deal with them. National preparedness isn’t just a task for a national government; it’s a truly whole-of-society activity and a shared responsibility of all within the nation, including all three levels of government, businesses, civil society and the citizenry at large. This report recommends a road map of immediate, near-term and longer term initiatives that the Australian Government should embrace as it builds the capabilities and capacities needed to fully prepare the nation. The roadmap is split into two parts, the first focuses on building an effective national preparedness system, while the second part focuses on the capabilities and capacities needed for national preparedness. The road maps contain recommendations for Australian policymakers, industry, civil society, critical infrastructure owners and operators, the Defence organisation and the defence industry. By implementing these initiatives across all sectors, Australia can build and maintain a robust national preparedness and resilience framework capable of meeting all threats, up to and including war, thereby safeguarding its security, prosperity and way of life. The Republic of Finland is an excellent exemplar of what a nation can do to build and maintain national resilience and national preparedness against all hazards, including the risk of conflict and war. Finland’s Comprehensive National Security model and ‘total defence’ strategy, which integrate civilian and military preparedness, offer valuable insights for strengthening Australia’s national preparedness framework. Australia and Finland have the opportunity to work together to build and maintain more robust national preparedness systems that help each country to address future crises. That can be done by fostering collaboration in knowledge exchange, policy development, intelligence sharing and bilateral cooperation on issues such as crisis management and civil defence; military preparedness and defence cooperation; disaster management and crisis response; cybersecurity; social resilience and public preparedness; and international collaboration and multilateral engagement.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, National Security, European Union, Resilience, and Research and Development
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Australia, and Asia-Pacific
794. Agenda for change 2025: Preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world
- Author:
- Raelene Lockhorst, Charles Lewis Taylor, Justin Bassi, Danielle Cave, and Marc Ablong
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- For more than a decade, which has included the 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022 federal elections, ASPI has helped to generate ideas and foster debate about Australian strategic policymaking through Agenda for change, a wide-ranging collection of analyses and recommendations to assist the next Australian Government in its deliberations and planning. Agenda for change 2025: Preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world continues in its tradition by providing focused and anticipatory policy advice for the 48th Parliament of Australia. The agenda strives to highlight, and present solutions to, the most pressing questions that our next government must consider in order to advance and protect Australia’s national interests in a more disordered and challenging world. This edition reflects five interrelated aspects of Australia’s position in 2025, focused on the need to: defend Australia navigate our place in a new world (dis)order reform our security architecture and policies secure our critical infrastructure protect and use our natural resources. In 2025, that means equipping the next government for the reality of the contest in which our country is engaged. Since the previous edition of Agenda for change in 2022 we’ve seen: Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine and public confirmation of the China–Russia ‘no limits’ partnership change in Australia’s policy towards China, with a focus on ‘stabilisation’, accompanied by reduced economic coercion against Australia but a ratcheting up of military intimidation, including an unprecedented PLA Navy circumnavigation of Australia heightened aggression by China against the Philippines in the South China Sea and against Taiwan a lowering of the national terrorism threat level to ‘possible’ in 2022, before it was raised back to ‘probable’ not quite two years later the 7 October 2023 Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel, the resulting war in Gaza and an increase in politically motivated violence in Australia the rise of artificial intelligence, including the landmark release of ChatGPT in late 2022 and then DeepSeek in 2025 the return of Donald Trump to the White House, bringing tension among allies and question marks over the future of the US-led international order. Each chapter in Agenda for change includes a limited number of prioritised policy recommendations, which are intended to be discrete, do-able and impactful. Although, when dealing with some of the more existential challenges facing Australia, the recommendations are necessarily and similarly expansive. In addressing that extraordinary range of developments, ASPI has drawn on a wide range of expertise for the 2025 edition of Agenda for change. The views expressed are the personal views of the authors and don’t represent a formal position of ASPI on any issue, other than a shared focus on Australia’s national interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Climate Change, National Security, United Nations, European Union, Counter-terrorism, Defense Industry, and Defense Economics
- Political Geography:
- Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
795. South Korea and Australia in space: Towards a strategic partnership
- Author:
- Sangsoon Lee
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Space cooperation between Australian and South Korea remains stuck in its infancy and, to some extent, is treated as an end in itself. This report argues that the time is ripe for both Australia and South Korea to embark on joint projects and initiatives that would deliver tangible and practical outcomes for both countries. For South Korea and Australia, space cooperation and space development serve as key pillars of the bilateral relationship. The two nations elevated their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership in December 2021, incorporating space development into core areas of cooperation in the fields of economics, innovation and technology. As a part of that elevation, the leaders of both countries agreed to strengthen joint research and cooperation between space research institutes and industries. Following that, in 2022, South Korea and Australia established a Space Policy Dialogue. A greater bilateral focus on expanding the scope and opportunities for space cooperation could deliver foreign-policy, national-security, defence and economic outcomes for South Korea and Australia. This report argues that there are opportunities in the bilateral relationship to boost both space cooperation (the collaborative efforts between nations to leverage space advancements for mutual benefit and to foster diplomatic ties and intergovernmental collaboration) and space development (the advancement of space-related technologies, infrastructure and industries) and is pivotal in areas such as national security, economic growth and resource management. This report first analyses the space development strategies of South Korea and Australia and examines the environmental factors that can increase the potential for cooperation. It then proposes areas where the two countries can combine their technologies and resources to maximise mutual benefits and offers eight policy recommendations to the governments of both countries. Scott Pace, former Executive Secretary of the US National Space Council, has emphasised that ‘International space cooperation is not an end in itself, but a means of advancing national interests.’ The South Korea – Australia partnership aligns with that principle, and it’s time to realise the opportunity.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Cooperation, and Strategic Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- South Korea, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and Space
796. Indonesia in 2035: Climate risks to security in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Michael Copage, Robert Glasser, and Isabelle Bond
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- The Indo-Pacific region is particularly exposed to climate impacts, and Indonesia, like many countries, will be severely affected by climate impacts in the decade to come. The effects of climate-amplified disasters, combined with the political, social and economic consequences of climate impacts originating from within and across the region, will strain Indonesia’s economic and national-security interests. This report presents the findings of a narrative-driven scenario to stress-test Indonesia’s climate risks emerging by 2035. Its objective is to identify opportunities for Indonesia and its economic and strategic partners to prepare for and mitigate the risks. While Australian policymakers have devoted significant attention to the existential risks that Pacific island countries face, Southeast Asian countries are also highly exposed and often face similar risks. Within Southeast Asia, Indonesia’s climate risks have received very limited attention despite its high exposure to climate hazards, its very large population (over 10 times larger than all Pacific island countries combined) which is densely concentrated in vulnerable coastal areas and small islands, and its history of political unrest associated with disruptions to food and energy security. It’s also one of the closest neighbouring countries to Australia. Figure 1 on page 5 provides a visual summary of the interacting hazards, risks and consequences highlighted in this report. The population size of Southeast Asian countries and their often-close proximity to one another means that climate impacts in one country will often have consequences beyond their borders and for their neighbours across the region. Gaining a better understanding of how Indonesia, as the largest country in Southeast Asia, will be affected by climate developments is vital, given both the domestic and regional consequences. Even below the ‘safe’ threshold of a 1.5°C rise in global average temperature—the aspirational target set in 2015 by the signatories to the Paris Agreement—countries around the world are already experiencing serious, record-setting, climate-driven disruptions on a large scale. The era of climate-induced disruption is clearly already upon us—and it will intensify rapidly. Building resilience while preparing for future disruption requires an enhanced appreciation of climate risk that goes beyond adapting to more frequent and severe natural hazards, such as floods and fires. Development-assistance and defence communities have embraced the importance of treating climate change as a threat to human, economic and traditional military security. The challenge is to build the capacity and tools to assess the broad suite of security-related risks of climate change—and to translate that information into measures to mitigate the risks. Understanding the complexity and uncertainty associated with climate trends is a daunting task, greatly complicated by the need to incorporate the many ways climate change affects social, political and economic systems. The scenario developed in this report isn’t a prediction of the future, but rather a description of a possible future. It identifies many climate impacts, but suggests three primary pathways through which Indonesia may face compounding and destabilising climate disruptions: Significant food insecurity from losses to domestic production due to shifting precipitation timing and extremes across the wet and dry seasons, heightened sensitivity to shocks in global food prices, and reduced government ability to absorb economic shocks, such as food-price hikes. Large-scale coastal population displacement driven by Indonesia’s high coastal population density and the significant exposure of that population to sea-level rise and climate-induced coastal flooding. Slowed economic growth from lost agricultural output, declining revenues from stranded fossil-fuel assets, rising disaster costs at home and abroad affecting economic infrastructure and supply chains, and rising challenges in responding to domestic crises driven by food insecurity and population displacements. A major finding of this research is that, in little more than a decade, Indonesia is likely to experience major climate disruptions that also amplify climate and security risks in the region, resulting in a range of additional and cascading risks for Australia. A second overarching finding in the report is that Indonesia may be underestimating the likely scale of the climate risks and should devote greater attention to analysing them. It’s in Australia’s interests to do the same and, as a good neighbour, to coordinate an Australian whole-of-government effort to support Indonesia to mitigate the risks, including cross-border risks.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, and Climate Change
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Australia, and Indo-Pacific
797. National food security preparedness Green Paper
- Author:
- Andrew Henderson and John Coyne
- Publication Date:
- 04-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Australia’s agriculture sector and food system produce enough food to feed more than 70 million people worldwide. The system is one of the world’s least subsidised food systems. It has prospered under a global rules-based system influenced by Western liberal values, but it now faces chronic challenges due to rising geopolitical tensions, geo-economic transitions, climate change, deteriorating water security and rapid technological advances. The world is changing so rapidly that the assumptions, policy approaches and economic frameworks that have traditionally supported Australia’s food security are no longer fit for purpose. Potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific is driving enhanced preparedness activity in Australia’s defence force, but that isn’t being replicated across the agriculture sector and food system in a coordinated manner. Food hasn’t featured as a priority in the public versions of the Defence Strategic Review or the National Defence Strategy. This has created a gap in Australia’s preparedness activities: if Australia’s national security and defence organisations are preparing for potential conflict, then Australia’s agriculture sector and food system stakeholders should also be preparing for this period of strategic uncertainty. Food security is a pillar of whole-of-nation preparedness for an uncertain future. While current targeted preparedness efforts and resilience mechanisms are valuable, they aren’t sufficient. Stakeholders are calling for stronger, proactive national coordination from the government to empower and support private-sector action. Meeting that demand is essential to strengthening overall resilience. So, too, is understanding that Australia’s food security relies on a holistic and interconnected ecosystem rather than a fragmented supply chain. Australia is a heavily trade-exposed nation that exports 70% of production, so any disruption to maritime and other transport corridors or to the infrastructure needed to move food risks undermining both national food security and Australia’s standing as a reliable global supplier. This work has been written and constructed as a Green Paper, not an academic publication. Informed by six months of consultations with government, the private sector and civil society, the paper combines applied policy analysis and real-world insights to promote deliberate conversation about protecting Australia’s food security with the same priority as protecting Australia’s national security. The Green Paper is divided into four parts. It also includes three case studies in the Appendix, which use a threat and risk assessment to analyse three critical inputs to the food security ecosystem—phosphate, glyphosate and digital connectivity—to help stakeholders evaluate the vulnerabilities in Australia’s food security ecosystem. The intention of this Green Paper is to deepen understanding of food security as a key public policy issue, stimulate public discussion, inform policymaking and provide both government and key stakeholders with policy options for consideration. This Green Paper’s 14 recommended policy options have been designed to equip governments and the private sector with structured national-security-inspired assessment tools and a framework to continuously identify, prioritise and mitigate vulnerabilities. That includes options to centralise the coordination and decentralise delivery of preparedness activities, establish accountability and embed food security as a national security priority and a key element of Australia’s engagement across the Indo-Pacific.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, National Security, Food Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Indo-Pacific
798. British public opinion on foreign policy: President Trump, Ukraine, China, Defence spending and AUKUS
- Author:
- Sophia Gaston
- Publication Date:
- 03-2025
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Results snapshot President Trump Britons support an open and engaged foreign policy role for the United Kingdom. In light of the re-election of President Donald Trump, 40% believe Britain should continue to maintain its current active level of engagement in world affairs, and 23% believe it should play a larger role. Just 16% of Britons support a less active United Kingdom on the world stage. When asked what Britain’s response should be if the United States withdraws its financial and military support from Ukraine, 57% of Britons would endorse the UK either maintaining (35%) or increasing (22%) its contributions to Ukraine. One-fifth would prefer that the UK reduces its contributions to Ukraine. UK–China relations Just a quarter (26%) of Britons support the UK Government’s efforts to increase engagement with China in the pursuit of economic growth and stabilised diplomatic relations. In comparison, 45% of Britons would either prefer to return to the more restricted level of engagement under the previous government (25%) or for the government to reduce its relations with Beijing even further (20%). A large majority of Britons (69%) are concerned about the increasing degree of cooperation between Russia and China. Conservative and Labour voters share similarly high levels of concern, and Britons over 50 years of age are especially troubled about the trend of adversary alignment. Defence and security When asked whether the UK will need to spend more on defence to keep up with current and future global security challenges, a clear two-thirds (64%) of the British people agree. Twenty-nine per cent of Britons strongly agree that defence spending should increase. Just 12% disagree that the UK will need to spend more. The majority of Britons believe that collaboration with allies on defence and security projects like AUKUS will help to make the UK safer (55%) and that partnerships like AUKUS focusing on developing cutting-edge technologies with Britain’s allies will help to make the UK more competitive towards countries like China (59%). Britons are somewhat less persuaded that AUKUS will succeed as a deterrent against Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific, although the largest group of respondents (44%) agree that it will.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, Alliance, AUKUS, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Australia, and United States of America
799. State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Governmental practices in protecting IP-intensive industries
- Author:
- Gatra Priyandita and Bart Hogeveen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Since 2022, an increasing number of governments have introduced new policies, legislation, regulations and standards to deal with the threat to their economies from cyber-enabled IP theft. Most prominently, in October 2023, the heads of the major security and intelligence agencies of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US (also known as the ‘Five Eyes’) appeared together in public for the first time, in front of a Silicon Valley audience, and called out China as an ‘unprecedented threat’ to innovation across the world.1 That was followed up in October 2024 with a public campaign called ‘Secure Innovation’. There is, however, variation in how governments frame their responses. Countries such as the UK and Australia take a national-security approach with policy instruments that seek to monitor the flow of knowledge and innovation to and from specific countries (primarily China). Other countries, such as Malaysia and Finland, take a due-diligence risk approach with a focus on awareness building and providing incentives to organisations to do their due-diligence checks before engaging with foreign entities. Countries such as Japan and Singapore, by contrast, take an economic-security approach in which they focus on engaging and empowering at-risk industries proactively. This report is the third in a compendium of three. The first report, State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: tackling an invisible but persistent risk to prosperity, published in 2022, looked at the scale, scope and impact of state-sponsored cyber-espionage campaigns aimed at extracting trade secrets and sensitive business information. The second report, State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Assessing the preparedness of emerging economies to respond to cyber-enabled IP theft, looks at the extent to which agreed norms effectively constrain states from conducting economic cyber-espionage and also examines the varying levels of vulnerability experienced by selected major emerging economies. This third report complements those diagnoses by offering policymakers an action perspective based on good practices observed across the world. Various practices and examples have been selected, drawing from a multi-year capacity-building effort that included engagements in Southeast Asia, South Asia and Latin America and consultations with authorities in developed economies such as the US, Australia, Japan, Singapore and the Netherlands. Many of the practices covered in this report were presented at the Track 1 Dialogue on Good Governmental Practices that ASPI hosted during Singapore International Cyber Week 2023.
- Topic:
- Crime, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Cybersecurity, Business, and Espionage
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
800. State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: Assessing the preparedness of emerging economies to defend against cyber-enabled IP theft
- Author:
- Gatra Priyandita and Bart Hogeveen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2025
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Strategic competition is deepening existing tensions and mistrust between states and prompts nations to develop capabilities that they consider central to sovereign national power. Technological capabilities sit at the centre of this. It’s therefore not surprising that governments around the world are seeking technological advantage over their competitors and potential adversaries. In this context, safeguarding intellectual property (IP) has become necessary not just because it’s an essential asset for any modern economy—developed or emerging—but because it’s also increasingly underwriting national and regional security. Today, middle-income countries1 ‘World Bank country and lending groups’, World Bank, 2024, online. that are seeking to progress in the global value chain are home to vibrant knowledge-intensive sectors. Some of the world’s largest science and technology clusters are located in São Paulo and Bengaluru, for example.2 Other exemplars include the biochemical industry in India, information and communication technology (ICT) firms in Malaysia and petroleum processors in Brazil. In fact, countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Vietnam have emerged as increasingly major producers of knowledge and innovation.3 Perhaps reflecting that changing reality, it’s middle-income countries that are confronted by increasing attempts to deprive them of their economic crown jewels. In our report State-sponsored economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes: tackling an invisible but persistent risk to prosperity, ASPI estimated that the number of state-sponsored cyber incidents affecting private entities in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Latin America and the Middle East increased from 40% in 2014 to nearly 60% in 2020.4 To be clear: economic espionage isn’t new. But it’s the growing scale and intensification of economic cyber-espionage for commercial purposes—and as an integrated tool of statecraft—that is a cause for concern.
- Topic:
- Intellectual Property/Copyright, Cybersecurity, Espionage, and Emerging Economies
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus