Political Geography: - CIAO Search Results

601. Collective Action in the Netherlands: Why It Matters for the Transposition of the Product Liability Directive

Author:: Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: This policy brief explores the implications of the Netherlands’ transposition of the new EU Product Liability Directive (PLD), focusing on its interaction with the Dutch collective action system. As one of the first EU countries to implement PLD and a key hub for mass litigation, the Netherlands offers a compelling case study. Features such as low claim thresholds, opt-out mechanisms, flexible settlements, limited cost-shifting, and the ease of creating litigation-backed entities make the Netherlands particularly attractive for mass claims, reinforcing its reputation as a “litigation magnet.” The new PLD simplifies liability claims, broadens the definition of “product” to include software, digital files, and related services, lowers evidentiary thresholds, extends liability to third-party actions such as cyberattacks, and includes post-market defects. These provisions, combined with the Netherlands’ collective redress regime, are expected to drive a rise in mass litigation. This rise poses particular economic risks for the Netherlands, one of the EU’s most digitised economies. Ranked sixth in digital adoption by Eurostat’s Digital Intensity Index, Dutch firms – especially in finance, insurance, ICT, and manufacturing – may also face growing exposure to collective actions under the PLD, which extends liability across the entire value chain. These sectors account for 27 percent of the value added in the Dutch market economy and are widely recognised as key drivers of economic growth. Increased legal uncertainty may also reduce the Netherlands’ attractiveness to multinational corporations, threatening levels of foreign direct investment and employment, both essential pillars of the Dutch economy. Growing mass litigation may also hinder innovation by redirecting R&D resources toward legal risk management. This is particularly concerning for the Netherlands, one of the EU’s top R&D investors. Drawing on US evidence, large-scale litigation can significantly erode market capitalisation, and based on our estimates, the cumulative loss in value for 31 Dutch companies featured in the EU R&D Scoreboard could reach €5.5 billion under the high-growth scenario. Such declines could impact household wealth, as Dutch households save approximately 14.6 percent of their gross disposable income, of which 20 percent is invested in equity. Pension funds, which also play a central role in Dutch long-term savings, can also hold significant stakes in publicly traded Dutch companies. As a result, the effects of collective actions on the market value of Dutch companies extend beyond corporate balance sheets, posing potential negative consequences for Dutch savers, as well as current and future pensioners. This report was commissioned by the European Justice Forum, a coalition of businesses, individuals and organisations that are working to build fair, balanced, transparent and efficient civil justice laws and systems for both consumers and businesses in Europe.
Topic:: European Union, Economy, Litigation, and Liability
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

602. The Impact of Increased Mass Litigation in the UK

Author:: Oscar Guinea, Dyuti Pandya, Vanika Sharma, and Renata Zilli
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Over the past decade, the United Kingdom has seen a marked rise in collective litigation, transforming what was once a niche legal, rarely employed, tool into a fast-growing business model with wide-ranging economic implications. At a time when the country seeks to boost investment, support innovation and attract global business, the proliferation of mass litigation risks undermining these ambitions. This study takes a closer look at how mass litigation is reshaping the UK’s legal, business and regulatory landscape – and asks whether the balance between justice and economic efficiency is tipping too far. The UK stands out among European countries for the ease with which mass claims can be launched. It has long provided a favourable environment for consumer representation and dispute resolution, with a strong culture of accountability. But recent years have seen the emergence of a new ecosystem: law firms specialising in group actions; litigation funders offering upfront capital in exchange for a share of awards; and Claims Management Companies (CMCs) that recruit claimants en masse and process high volumes of cases. The business model has proved highly successful, making group litigation an asset class in its own right and pushing collective actions far beyond traditional sectors such as banking and pharmaceuticals. Today, a growing portion of the UK economy is in the firing line – with potentially damaging consequences. This shift has been rapid and striking. From fewer than 10 mass litigation cases in the late 2010s, the UK saw 47 such actions in 2024 alone, more than any other European country. On a per capita basis, the UK ranks as one of the most litigious jurisdictions in Europe, well ahead of comparable economies such as France or Germany. The implications for the UK economy are far-reaching: many of the companies targeted by these actions operate in sectors that were included in the UK Government’s latest industrial strategy as critical to the country’s future economic growth. Whereas previously limited to financial and professional services, mass litigation cases are now rising in UK companies working in life sciences, advanced manufacturing and digital services. These are industries where risk-taking, long product development cycles and data-driven innovation are the norm. The threat of mass litigation introduces uncertainty and cost at exactly the moment when these businesses need regulatory clarity and investment stability. Moreover, claims against public sector entities involve a direct transfer of capital from the tax payer to hedge fund litigation funders. The financial burden is also considerable. Legal fees and returns to funders often consume a large share of total settlements, reducing the compensation that actually reaches affected individuals. In the Post Office Horizon scandal, for example, £46 million in legal fees and funders payments were deducted from a £57 million settlement, leaving a paltry sum of just over £20,000 per claimant. In the recent judgment of Merricks v. Mastercard, £100 million have been allocated to compensate consumers. Affected individuals could receive up to £70 each if only 5 percent claim, but as little as £2.5 if the full class of 44 million comes forward. These figures raise questions about who really benefits from mass litigation. The limited benefits for individual consumers stand in stark contrast to the substantial costs that mass litigation imposes on the UK economy as a whole. Our scenario modelling shows that, under a scenario where the costs of mass litigation are just 30 percent of the current costs in the US, litigation costs in the UK could reach more than half of the claim value; the cost of mass litigation for the UK economy could reach close to £18 billion, and the market capitalisation of the UK’s most innovative companies could fall by £11.2 billion, more than half the announced public investment into R&D in the 2025 Autumn Budget. These financial pressures affect the whole country. While many large companies are headquartered in Greater London, their operations, and the jobs they support, are often spread across the wider regions. This means that the impact of a legal challenge is not just a concern for a corporate boardroom in London, but it impacts local economies and communities across the UK. As the Civil Justice Council reviews the framework for litigation funding, this study provides evidence to inform the debate. It does not argue against collective actions per se but urges a careful weighing of their benefits against broader economic costs. If the UK wants to remain an attractive destination for business, investment, and innovation, it must ensure that its legal infrastructure supports rather than stifles those ambitions.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Finance, and Litigation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

603. Strengthening the Supply-Side Innovation in EU Telecommunications

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The telecommunications sector is central to the EU’s competitiveness, not only providing the infrastructure that underpins digital connectivity but also serving as a key driver of innovation. Recent EU reports already highlight the persistent structural challenges faced by the EU telecommunication sector: market fragmentation, low investment levels, divergent spectrum policies, and an urgent need to bolster digital sovereignty. However, a critical dimension in this discussion often receives far less attention: the supply of the underlying technologies that power telecommunications infrastructure. In this domain, EU companies remain competitive. In 2023, 27 EU-headquartered firms were among the world’s top 2,000 R&D spenders in telecommunications, accounting for 16 percent of global sectoral investment. These figures underscore that, while Europe may lag in investment and infrastructure, it still holds strategic leadership in telecom innovation and technology development. Central to Europe’s success are standard development organisations (SDOs), technical standards, and Standard Essential Patents (SEPs). SDOs provide collaborative forums where companies jointly develop technical standards that ensure interoperability, reduce fragmentation and foster innovation. Complementing this, SEPs protect the innovations embedded within these standards, granting European companies vital licensing revenues that sustain their research efforts. This system is particularly important for EU firms, which tend to be smaller than their global competitors; it enables them to specialise in cutting-edge technology development and commercialise their innovations globally without needing to dominate manufacturing or end-user markets. As competitiveness in telecommunications increasingly depends on the pace and adoption of innovation, the EU faces both a challenge and an opportunity. European firms have the potential not only to supply critical technologies but to drive breakthroughs in connectivity which are linked to the development of other technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) or quantum technologies. However, to stay competitive, the EU must reinforce its position on the supply side, where its companies still operate at the technological frontier.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Digital Economy, Innovation, and Supply and Demand
Political Geography:: Europe

604. CTC Sentinel: January 2025 Issue

Author:: Paul Cruickshank, Julika Enslin, Nicolas Stockhammer, and Colin Clarke
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: France24’s Wassim Nasr is the only international journalist to spend time with Syria’s de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa both before and after the fall of Assad. In the spring of 2023, Nasr traveled to Idlib where he met with al-Sharaa (who at the time was widely known by his jihadi kunya Abu Muhammad al-Julani). Nasr’s insights detailed in “Journey to Idlib” in the May 2023 issue of CTC Sentinel on al-Sharaa’s ideological journey away from the Islamic State and al-Qa`ida toward what might be termed pragmatic Islamism were invaluable to international security analysts. Late last year, shortly after the fall of the Assad regime, Nasr traveled back to Syria where he met with al-Sharaa for a second time and interviewed him. Speaking to CTC Sentinel about the trip in his follow-up feature interview “Journey to Damascus,” Nasr says: “Comparing the man I saw in 2023 with the man I saw in late 2024, he was the same. He spoke very slowly, very quietly. It was the same impression I had a year and a half ago, which was very surprising to many people. I was very cautious a year and a half ago, asking myself, ‘Okay, should I take what he is saying for granted?’ But I was reassured. Because I saw that when they took Aleppo, [when] they took Damascus, actually he applied what he said to me a year and a half ago. It can’t be dismissed as just talk.” In the feature article, Nicolas Stockhammer and Colin Clarke examine the Islamic State-inspired plot to attack a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna that was thwarted in August 2024. They write that the plot “underlined that Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), which appears to have inspired the lead plotter, remains an enduring threat, evolving its tactics and strategy while focusing on radicalizing followers and supporters through relentless online propaganda. The suspects in the Vienna plot epitomized the interplay of online and offline radicalization, with extremist content on social media platforms like TikTok playing a pivotal role.” In the second interview, Wassim Nasr provides insights from his interview last fall with Mohamed (Amadou) Koufa, the number two in JNIM, al-Qa`ida’s affiliate in the Sahel. For Nasr, the questions Koufa chose not to answer were even more significant than his answers. “In my assessment, Koufa’s refusal to speak about al-Qa`ida was significant. I think it’s very possible that JNIM is at least seriously discussing and maybe preparing to break from al-Qa`ida. Since the last third of December, JNIM has stopped referring to AQIM and stopped directing followers to the AQIM media outlet Al-Izza. … It looks like they might be preparing the landscape for a split with al-Qa`ida in the same way that Jabhat al-Nusra—the predecessor group of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), the group now in power in Syria—split with al-Qa`ida.” Nasr says that it is possible that having seen HTS come to power in Syria after it split with al-Qa`ida and having seen al-Sharaa in recent weeks win broad international acceptance, JNIM may be preparing to start on a similar path away from the global jihadi group.
Topic:: Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Bashar al-Assad, and Ahmad al-Sharaa
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Syria, and Austria

605. CTC Sentinel: March 2025 Issue

Author:: Don Rassler, Yannick Veilleux-Lepage, Julika Enslin, Aaron Y. Zelin, and Jake Dulligan
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The March issue focuses in particular on the drone threat. In the feature article, Don Rassler and Yannick Veilleux-Lepage examine the evolution of terrorist drone usage and forecast its future trajectory in light of the tactical and technological innovations emerging from the Russo-Ukrainian War. They write that “the conflict has become a critical ‘innovation hub’ for drone warfare, accelerating advancements in the scale, speed, and range of drone operations. These developments are not only transforming the modern battlefield but also creating new opportunities for violent extremist organizations (VEOs) to enhance their operational capabilities.” They assess that “in particular, the war has normalized large-scale drone deployment, demonstrating the feasibility of launching coordinated drone swarms and phased attacks capable of overwhelming existing defenses” and note that the potential future pairing of high-speed First-Person View (FPV) drones with emerging technologies such as AI-assisted targeting “could significantly increase the precision and impact of future attacks.” In a similar vein, Jake Dulligan, Laura Freeman, Austin Phoenix, and Bradley Davis, in assessing the threat posed by commercial drones, write that the biggest concern “is that drone swarms could dramatically increase the impact of bad actor drone operations, be it kinetic strikes, ISR, or psychological warfare.” This month’s interview is with Dr. Christian Klos, the Director General of Public Security at Germany’s Federal Ministry of Interior and Community. He says that “when it comes to the external threat, I would agree with the assessment that ISIS-K is in Germany as well. What we observe from the intelligence side is that there are clear indications that the group intends to conduct attacks in Europe, and this can also include Germany and therefore we are very much aware of this threat, and we have seen also travel activities. So, it’s not just some minor indications.” Aaron Zelin assesses the new Syrian government’s efforts to counter the Islamic State, Hezbollah, and the captagon trade. He writes: “Unlike the Assad regime—which did little to fight the Islamic State, was closely aligned with Hezbollah, and produced captagon on an industrial scale—HTS in its guise as the new government of Syria is taking on these challenges assertively, and has a significant track record in doing so previously. Not only are these efforts a benefit to Syrian society and the security and stability of the country, but they also align with the interests of the United States and U.S. regional allies.” Alexandre Rodde and Justin Olmstead examine the evolution of vehicular ramming attacks and prevention efforts. They write that “when it comes to indicators and warnings of future attacks, the demonstration effect created by high-casualty vehicle-ramming attacks has in the past seemingly produced a surge in copycat attacks, which means the security agencies should be particularly vigilant given the recent uptick in high-profile attacks, including the New Orleans attack.”
Topic:: Intelligence, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Weapons, Drones, Islamic State, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Public Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

606. CTC Sentinel: April 2025 Issue

Author:: Michael Knights, Paul Cruickshank, Ayush Verma, Imtiaz Baloch, and Riccardo Valle
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In this month’s feature article, Michael Knights illuminates the nexus between Iraq’s oil sector and the Iran threat network. He writes: “The Iran threat network suffered grievous blows in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Iran itself in 2024, and this has arguably made oil-rich Iraq even more important to the network. Facing renewed maximum pressure from the United States, Iran needs not only Iraq’s terrorist fundraising potential but also its value as a ‘laundromat’ through which Iranian energy products can be fraudulently relabeled as Iraqi exports. Using their control of the al-Sudani government, Iran-backed terrorist groups and militias are developing significant new strands of threat financing using Iraq’s oil sector, which combine to provide billions of dollars of illicit value each year. Iraq is thus emerging as Iran’s best bet for neutering the Trump administration’s renewed maximum pressure campaign.” He notes that “U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations are no longer content to steal oil, only to have smuggling businessmen realize most of the profits. Instead, terrorist organizations have muscled into this value-addition segment of the oil market in recent years, with AAH [Asaib Ahl al-Haq] and KH [Kataib Hezbollah] leading the pack.” Our interview is with Charlie Winter, the co-founder and chief research officer of ExTrac AI, an AI-assisted intelligence platform that identifies, maps, and forecasts geopolitical risk, including in the counterterrorism space. He states: “Our USP pivots around accessing, ingesting, and processing high-relevance publicly available information and data from hard-to-reach parts of the internet that reflects the online and offline activities and psychological operations of various non-state and state threat actors. And through our platform, which is both a web and mobile app, we provide both access to that data and the ability to generate insight from it rapidly—and we do that using a range of different kinds of automation, machine learning, [and] artificial intelligence.” He adds: “We essentially have built our system to let machines do what they do best and let human analysts do what they do best, and enable the analysts to spend a lot more time performing the highest-value tasks in the intelligence cycle.” Ayush Verma, Imtiaz Baloch, and Riccardo Valle examine the Baloch insurgency in Pakistan. They write: “The Baloch insurgency in Pakistan has intensified sharply since the beginning of 2025, marked by sophisticated attacks such as the Jaffar Express hijacking by Baloch Liberation Army-Jeeyand faction (BLA-J) on March 11, 2025, which resulted in the kidnapping of more than 400 passengers and death of at least 26 hostages. Groups like BLA-J, Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), and Baloch Liberation Army-Azad faction (BLA-A) continue to deploy suicide bombers, including women, and temporarily seize territories, targeting Chinese nationals and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. The insurgency’s regional spillover, especially into Iran, and competition for resources and prominence among factions of the insurgency further complicate Pakistan’s internal security.” They add: “Without a political resolution addressing long-standing grievances, the insurgency threatens to escalate, destabilizing both national and regional security.”
Topic:: Oil, Terrorism, Insurgency, Artificial Intelligence, Regional Security, Threat Assessment, and Transnational Threats
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Iraq, South Asia, and Middle East

607. CTC Sentinel: May 2025 Issue

Author:: Daisy Muibu, Yayedior Mbengue, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, and Briar Bundy
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In the May 2025 feature article, Daisy Muibu and Yayedior Mbengue examine the evolving counterterrorism challenge in Somalia. They write that “nearly three years after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the security landscape remains precarious. Al-Shabaab has resurged, coordination between federal and Puntland forces is limited despite Islamic State-Somalia’s growing global remit, and the future of the African Union mission is uncertain. These trends are driven by political discord, a fragmented national landscape, donor fatigue, operational challenges, and al-Shabaab’s resilience.” Our interview is with Christine Abizaid, the former director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center. She emphasizes that: “The CT business is still a needles-in-the-haystack business; it’s still one piece of information that can open up a whole new threat network. You have to be digging into and accessing multiple sources of information, collaborating with multiple partners who see things in different ways.” Aymenn Al-Tamimi charts the rise, fall, and dissolution of al-Qa`ida’s loyalist group in Syria Hurras al-Din. He writes that: “The primary ongoing concern from a counterterrorism perspective is that regardless of Hurras al-Din’s own weakness, individuals who were members of the group, particularly leading figures, may try to coordinate with other members of al-Qa`ida or other jihadis outside Syria for the purpose of organizing terrorist attacks abroad.” Saif Tahir and Amira Jadoon examine the geographical origins, mobility patterns, and demographic characteristics of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants through an analysis of 615 profiles from the organization’s own martyrdom commemorative publications spanning 2006-2025. Julika Enslin outlines the evolution of the Islamist terror threat landscape in Germany since 2020 by taking an in-depth look at all nine executed Islamist terrorist attacks and the 20 publicly reported thwarted attack plots during that time. A personal note: Over the last 10 years, it has been the privilege of a lifetime to serve as the Editor-in-Chief of CTC Sentinel to showcase the best and brightest scholars and practitioners in our field. It’s time for me to pass the baton. The publication will be in great hands with my brilliant colleagues Kristina Hummel and Don Rassler. I look forward to continuing my close association with the Combating Terrorism Center and CTC Sentinel. The faculty and staff at the center, past and present, are the very best of America. I greatly appreciate the trust that directors Colonel Sean Morrow, Brian Dodwell, and Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Bryan Price placed in me. Above all, I would like to express my thanks to our extraordinary contributors. They have greatly helped the counterterrorism enterprise. Who thinks wins.
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Al-Shabaab, African Union, Salafi-Jihadism, and Hurras al-Din
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, Syria, North America, Somalia, and United States of America

608. Strategies for States to Weather DisasterRelated Income Tax Extensions

Author:: Nancy Y. Augustine, Miles Murphy, Kate Kellen, and Coleman Stallworth
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA)
Abstract:: The Academy will conduct comprehensive research and analysis to examine how disaster declarations affect tax extension periods in states and the IRS decision-making process in determining the extension duration. The objective of this engagement is to improve state and IRS coordination, communication, and decision making.
Topic:: Budget, Financial Management, Intergovernmental Models, and Government Operations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

609. Palestinian Women: Between War Resilience and Their Role in Post-Conflict Reconstruction in Gaza.

Author:: Mirvat al-Zaqzouq and Diab Zayed
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Women constitute 49% of the total population, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) reports, but their contribution to public life remains far below their numbers in society. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) reports, women in the labor market will account for 19% in 2023. In decision-making centers, women’s participation remains low and one of the lowest rates in the region, despite being one of the most important indicators of gender equality, as data for 2021 showed that the percentage of women members of the Central Council constitutes about 23%, 19% of the members of the National Council, and 12% of the members of the Council of Ministers. There is also one-woman governor out of 15 governors, and 1% of the heads of local authorities in Palestine are women. As for the management of the councils of chambers of commerce, industry and agriculture, only 1% are women, about 19% of judges are women, and 18% of prosecutors are women. These figures reflect a marked exclusion of women from public life, which negatively affects their status, deepens gender inequality gaps, and at the same time prevents society from benefiting from women’s abilities and contribution to public life. This will inevitably affect the development of society and reinforce internal conflicts, especially gender conflicts. The exclusion of women in Palestine is a social tendency to exclude them from important public positions in the economy and politics, preventing them from expressing their opinions and limiting their public visibility. Despite the vital role that women play in crises, such as their steadfastness during the recent war on the Gaza Strip, in which various types of munitions were used including internationally banned ones, and came after years of siege imposed on Palestinian men and women, which deepened their suffering, but the general trend was to exclude women.
Topic:: Reconstruction, Women, Post-Conflict, Palestinians, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

610. A Forward-Looking Vision for Reforming the Palestinian Political System

Author:: Maher Issa and Omar Rahal
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Political reform in Palestine is an urgent necessity to achieve progress and development, ensure political and social stability, and confront the internal and external challenges facing the Palestinian cause. The Palestinian political system, which was established under complex historical circumstances and under Israeli occupation, needs continuous development to be able to respond to the requirements of the Palestinian people and their aspirations for freedom, dignity, and independence. The importance of political reform also comes in the context of enhancing the political legitimacy of the Palestinian system. Over time, the Palestinian citizen’s confidence in political institutions has declined as a result of the accumulation of issues such as the absence of periodic elections, the erosion of legitimacy, weak accountability and transparency, and the spread of favoritism and corruption in some areas. Thus, this reform is the cornerstone for rebuilding trust between the people and their institutions, and ensuring real and inclusive representation of all groups.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Elections, Legitimacy, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

611. The Future of Jerusalem Amid Political and Regional Changes: A Prospective Analysis

Author:: Rami Murad and Mahmoud Ereikat
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Jerusalem represents a central axis in the Arab-Israeli conflict due to its unique religious, historical, and political significance. Over the decades, the city has remained a focal point of contention between Palestinians and Israelis. While Israel seeks to consolidate its control through settlement expansion and Judaization policies, Palestinians strive to preserve its Arab, Islamic, and Christian identity and establish it as the capital of their future state. Amid the current political and regional dynamics, Jerusalem faces unprecedented challenges that significantly impact its future and identity. Several factors shape its future, including regional geopolitical conflicts, shifts in the positions of major global powers, particularly the changes introduced by the new U.S. administration, the ramifications of the ongoing genocide in the Gaza Strip, and internal challenges stemming from Israel’s right-wing policies toward the Palestinian population. This paper aims to explore the future of Jerusalem by analyzing the current reality and potential scenarios. Additionally, it seeks to propose policy alternatives that support the city’s resilience, safeguard its identity, and strengthen its presence in the international political landscape.
Topic:: Genocide, Settlements, Cities, Palestinians, 2023 Gaza War, and Judaization
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

612. Perceptions on Enhancing Youth Access to Decision-Making Positions in the Palestinian

Author:: Jamal al-Fadi and Raed al-Dab'i
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This policy paper addresses the reality of Palestinian youth participation and access to decision-making centers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, amidst the political, economic, and social challenges faced by Palestinian youth due to Israeli occupation, internal division, and the Gaza blockade. Youth face significant difficulties in gaining opportunities for active participation in decision-making processes. The paper emphasizes the importance of empowering youth to access decision-making centers as a step toward achieving development and stability in Palestinian society. It highlights the need to enhance educational and training opportunities, improve economic conditions, and enable youth to have a real impact on public policies. Additionally, the paper offers alternatives, solutions, and practical recommendations, such as promoting political dialogue between the West Bank and Gaza, providing platforms for political participation, and developing economic and educational opportunities, in order to achieve genuine empowerment for Palestinian youth in various fields.
Topic:: Occupation, Youth, Economic Development, Decision-Making, Political Participation, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

613. Prospective Visions for the Future of Governance in Palestine

Author:: Abdullah Sharshara and Ahmed Rafiq Awad
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The issue addressed in this paper is that the future of the Palestinian political system remains unclear, making it too early to determine the exact shape of the governance system. Consequently, the researchers have employed a foresight methodology to analyze a set of variables and indicators to develop possible scenarios regarding the future of the political system and its impact on governance in Palestine. The foresight methodology relies on analyzing trends and future changes by studying current patterns and anticipated challenges to predict potential scenarios. Based on this approach, the researchers conducted two focus groups—one in Gaza City and another in Ramallah—on Thursday, January 23, 2025. The aim was to gather insights from elites, representatives, and key actors in Palestinian society regarding the potential outcomes of this system. Additionally, the researchers conducted a series of unstructured personal interviews with several Palestinian politicians to obtain analyzable results. This paper will first provide an overview of the Palestinian political system throughout different historical phases. It will then discuss the challenges faced by key actors within Palestinian society who have historically played a significant role in shaping and building the political system and governance structure—particularly the Palestinian Authority, Fatah (which has historically supported it), Hamas, and other Palestinian national and Islamic forces. Lastly, the paper will explore the future of the Palestinian political system and examine the impact of each scenario on the governance structure.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Hamas, Fatah, and Palestinian Authority
Political Geography:: Middle East and Palestine

614. Towards Practical Strategies to Overcome the Identity and Thinking Crisis Among Palestinian Youth after October 7

Author:: Amal Qeshta and Amjad Abu Al-Ezz
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This paper addresses the shifts in the attitudes of Palestinian youth after the events of October 7, highlighting the impact of the Israeli aggression on the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and its implications on the culture and political and social participation of Palestinian youth. It also reviews the psychological and social challenges they face, with a focus on the phenomenon of “chaotic thinking” that affected national identity and future orientations, leading young people to different choices between frustration and involvement in armed resistance.
Topic:: Youth, Identity, October 7, 2023 Gaza War, and Armed Resistance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

615. Assessing the Efforts of International Community to Protect Human Rights in Palestine: Interventions and Challenges

Author:: Ilham Shamally and Yehya Qaoud
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: This paper examines international interventions aimed at protecting Palestinian human rights amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza and escalating tensions in the West Bank. It highlights international humanitarian law as the key legal framework designed to protect civilians during armed conflicts. The paper identifies significant challenges hindering these efforts, notably the overlap between international politics and law, and global polarization, which obstructed decisive measures to safeguard Palestinians—especially given the frequent use of veto power by countries such as the United States at the UN Security Council, allowing Israel to continue its operations without substantial restraint. The study focuses on international efforts, including UN General Assembly resolutions calling for ceasefires, though these remained non-binding due to weak enforcement mechanisms. Additionally, it discusses significant legal initiatives, including South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice, and the International Criminal Court’s issuance of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for war crimes. The paper further outlines humanitarian and medical interventions by organizations like UNRWA, the International Red Cross, and the World Health Organization, all of which faced substantial obstacles, particularly Israeli restrictions on humanitarian aid access—a tactic identified by the paper as part of a deliberate starvation policy. It emphasizes the necessity of a unified Palestinian political system capable of enhancing diplomatic efforts and confronting these challenges effectively. Finally, the paper calls for re-evaluating current international mechanisms and more stringent enforcement of international law. It underscores the importance of unified Palestinian efforts to overcome international political polarization, thus ensuring more effective protection of Palestinian civilians in the face of ongoing, severe human rights violations.
Topic:: Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, International Community, UN Security Council, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

616. Toward a More Tolerant Society: Mechanisms Against Hate Speech and Intolerance – Gaza as a Model in the Context of War

Author:: Islam Moussa Atallah and Khitam Abu Odeh
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: In times of wars and disasters, the effects of destruction are not limited to material and human losses, but extend to the moral and social structure of society, generating new forms of tensions, intensifying latent negative tendencies, and inciting divisions that may remain for decades after the ceasefire. Hate speech and intolerance are among the most prominent threats to the Palestinian social fabric in times of crisis, and their presence has escalated sharply during the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip. In the face of widespread destruction, legal vacuum, mass displacement, insecurity, exclusion, and symbolic and moral violence, hate speech feeds on feelings of anger and despair, and finds fertile ground in a socially and politically exhausted environment. The danger of such rhetoric stems from the fact that it not only expresses temporary tension, but also reproduces structural divisions and deepens societal fissures along familial, regional, or political lines. In the Palestinian context, hate speech cannot be separated from the general structure of the long conflict, whether with the occupation or internally between the components of society. Palestinians themselves, despite their collective suffering, have for years been facing increasing challenges related to weak social cohesion, the division of political authority, and the erosion of trust between citizens and their institutions. As the war on Gaza intensified and the humanitarian tragedy intensified, discourses of accusation, betrayal, and exclusion emerged, whether on the basis of political affiliation, family origins, geography (between those displaced from the north and those settled in the south), or even economic and social status, revealing an underlying crisis in the cultural and social structure that goes beyond the impact of the war itself.
Topic:: Hate Speech, Intolerance, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:: Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

617. NATO’s future: a history

Author:: Bruno Tertrais
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Past pessimism about the solidity and survivability of the Alliance turned out to be misplaced, but assumptions about some of its fundamental tenets were not always correct. Doomsayers have been proven wrong. Internal tensions and external challenges have never brought the Alliance to a breaking point. After 75 years of existence, NATO appears to be a historical anomaly. A few lessons to ensure its longevity stem from this retrospective. NATO would be wise to stick with its core mission: deterrence and defense against an armed attack. Attempts to alter the rules and procedures of the Alliance risk endangering its foundations.
Topic:: NATO, History, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

618. Playing the long game: Russia in the Mediterranean

Author:: Giangiuseppe Pili, Alessio Armenzoni, Gary C. Kessler, and Diane M. Zorri
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Russia has fi rmly re-established its presence in the Mediterranean. Satellite imagery and geospatial analysis reveal that Russia is currently more active in North Africa and the Middle East, including operating a shadow fl eet of tankers that economically sustains Putin’s regime and its war eff orts in Ukraine. Given its size and capabilities, the current Russian squadron is not intended to engage in a full-scale naval battle against any NATO fl eet. Instead, it is deliberately kept weak enough to avoid being perceived as a major military threat.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Navy, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Mediterranean

619. The hunt for Red October in warmer oceans: Climate change and anti-submarine warfare

Author:: Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Security scholars have traditionally looked at climate change from the perspective of civil wars, migrations and pervasive instability. NATO has recently started looking at climate change as one of the main threatmultipliers characterizing the current international system. Climate change can have a real impact on interstate rivalry and strategic competition, specifi cally by aff ecting water temperatures, currents and salinity, and thus sonar performance – a key asset in submarine and
Topic:: NATO, Climate Change, Armed Forces, Strategic Competition, Submarines, and Warfare
Political Geography:: Oceans

620. How China sees the future and what it means for NATO

Author:: Alice Politi
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: China’s military expansion and its geopolitical ambitions, especially in the Indo-Pacifi c macro-area, potentially present growing challenges for NATO. Offi cial documents show that the reunifi cation with Taiwan plays a critical role in China’s 2049 “Great Rejuvenation” goals. However, China’s military capabilities are still too limited to allow for an intervention in Taiwan in the short term. Despite China’s rapid progress in outer space and military sectors, internal challenges such as slowing economic growth and demographic issues raise doubts about its ability to achieve long-term ambitions.
Topic:: NATO, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Military
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

621. How accurate is forecasting of military technologies?

Author:: Alexander Kott and Philip Perconti
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: We show that the accuracy of military technology forecasts is respectably high, 76% or better, depending on how an accurate forecast is defi ned. Long-term technology forecasting can be quite accurate and can inform NATO’s military research and development management decisions.
Topic:: NATO, Forecast, Research, and Military Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

622. Friends with benefits: Assessing Russian-Chinese military exercises

Author:: Narantsatsral Enkhbat
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: China-Russia joint strategic air patrols and naval manoeuvres near U.S. territory in the Pacifi c have become a growing trend, serving as geopolitical messaging. China is likely to become more involved in maritime security and power projection in the Arctic, as evidenced by its Coast Guard’s manoeuvres with Russia in the Northern Pacifi c. Russia conducts military drills and manoeuvres with China in the South China Sea (and potentially in the Taiwan Strait) to show support to China on territorial issues.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Geopolitics, Navy, Maritime, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

623. Two to tango: Russian-Iranian drone cooperation

Author:: Katie Fricke, Taylor Hankins, and Victoria Jones
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: Iran and Russia are strengthening their partnership through collaboration on Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) development and deployment. Iran’s drone programme presents a multifaceted challenge to NATO. The acquisition of Western technology through reverse engineering, coupled with Iran’s growing reputation as a drone supplier, enhances its military capabilities and global infl uence. Russia’s use of Iranian drones in Ukraine exposes vulnerabilities in NATO-provided defence systems and undermines eff orts to protect member states and partner countries. The proliferation of this technology to other state and non-state actors complicates NATO’s defence strategies. It is important for NATO to understand the drone warfare dynamics shaped by the Russia-Iran partnership. Analysing their innovations and integration into military doctrines is crucial for anticipating threats and developing countermeasures.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Eurasia, and Middle East

624. Human Rights Impact Assessment of Bolton Food’s Canned Tuna Operations in Morocco

Author:: Giorgia Ceccarelli and Ana Pérez Adroher
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This paper reports on the second human rights impact assessment (HRIA) carried out by Oxfam at Nouvelle Cosarno, Bolton Food’s tuna cannery in the coastal city of Agadir, Morocco. The factory employs more than 400 workers, 90% of whom are performing manual tasks (blue-collar workers). Women make up the majority of the manual workers (71%). The main objectives of the assessment are: to identify the company’s actual and potential human rights risks and impacts at the production stages of its Moroccan factory; to identify the root causes of these risks and impacts; and to make recommendations to Bolton Food and key stakeholders on how to address, mitigate or remediate the actual and potential impacts identified. One main group of rights-holders was identified for the purposes of this assessment: male and female workers employed in canned fish processing plants (including canned sardine, tuna and shrimp) in Agadir.
Topic:: Human Rights, Labor Issues, Supply Chains, Wages, and Tuna
Political Geography:: North Africa and Morocco

625. Human Rights Impact Assessment of Bolton Food’s Canned Tuna Supply Chain in Ecuador

Author:: Giorgia Ceccarelli
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This paper presents the first of three Human Rights Impact Assessments (HRIAs) conducted by Oxfam on behalf of Bolton Food, focusing on its tuna supply chain in Ecuador between 2021 and 2022. The assessment evaluates both actual and potential human rights impacts at the production stage of the value chain. It seeks to identify the root causes of these risks and impacts and to provide actionable recommendations to Bolton Food and relevant stakeholders on how to address, mitigate, or remediate them. For the purposes of this assessment, the primary group of rights-holders identified includes male and female workers employed in canned tuna processing plants in Manta, as well as male workers aboard tuna fishing vessels operating in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Topic:: Supply Chains, Tuna, Due Diligence, and Living Wage
Political Geography:: Latin America, Central America, and Ecuador

626. A (More) Feminist Approach to Principled Humanitarian Aid

Author:: Rachel Hastie
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Historically there has been very little discussion of feminism within the international humanitarian system. In recent years, some donor governments – including Canada, Mexico, and Germany – have adopted overtly feminist foreign policies and applied these to their strategies and guidance for humanitarian assistance. At the same time, aid actors have started to reconfigure their ways of working, vision, goals, and conceptualisation of humanitarianism in the light of decolonisation, anti-racism, local humanitarian leadership, and gender justice in the aid system. This discussion paper intends to prompt discussion and debate, by exploring what a feminist approach to principled humanitarian aid might look like practically, and what aid actors and the humanitarian system can to do to make it more of a reality.
Topic:: Feminism, Neutrality, Humanitarian Assistance, and Impartiality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

627. Takers Not Makers: The unjust poverty and unearned wealth of colonialism

Author:: Anjela Taneja, Anthony Kamande, Chandreyi Gunaray Gomez, Dana Abed, Max Lawson, and Neelanjana Mukhia
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Billionaire wealth has risen three times faster in 2024 than in 2023. Five trillionaires are now expected within a decade. Meanwhile, crises of economy, climate and conflict mean the number of people living in poverty has barely changed since 1990. Most billionaire wealth is taken, not earned- 60% comes from either inheritance, cronyism, corruption or monopoly power. Our deeply unequal world has a long history of colonial domination which has largely benefited the richest people. The poorest, racialized people, women and marginalized groups have been and continue to be systematically exploited at huge human costs. Today’s world remains colonial in many ways. This must be reversed. Reparations must be made to those who were brutally enslaved and colonised. Our modern-day colonial economic system must be made radically more equal to end poverty. The cost should be borne by the richest people who benefit the most.
Topic:: Inequality, Colonialism, Cronyism, Monopoly, Justice, Reparations, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

628. Innovative Pathways: When and how to use alternative approaches to Human Rights Impact Assessments

Author:: Caroline Brodeur and Eline Achterberg
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Human rights violations are widespread across global supply chains, with companies increasingly exposed to risks like forced labor and environmental degradation. While audits and certifications have proven insufficient in preventing such abuses, a more robust approach is necessary. A Human Rights Impact Assessment (HRIA) is an essential tool that helps businesses identify and assess human rights risks by engaging directly with affected rightsholders. This process is becoming more critical, especially with new regulations like the EU's Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which mandates comprehensive human rights and environmental due diligence (HREDD) for large companies starting in 2027. To make the HRIA process more efficient, some companies are exploring alternatives like joint HRIAs, sector-wide impact assessments, and rapid assessments. Joint HRIAs allow companies to share resources and expertise, especially when they source from the same suppliers or regions, while sector-wide assessments provide a broader view of industry-wide impacts. Rapid assessments are a faster alternative, focused on urgent or well-documented issues. Regardless of the approach, companies must adhere to key criteria to ensure effectiveness: selecting appropriate targets, engaging rightsholders meaningfully, addressing root causes, ensuring transparency, and committing to action. These principles ensure that the assessment process is thorough and leads to real, lasting improvements in human rights practices. Cutting corners in the due diligence process is not an option.
Topic:: Human Rights, Business, Impact Evaluation, and Due Diligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

629. Personal to Powerful: Holding the line for gender justice in the face of growing anti-rights movements

Author:: Lata Narayanaswamy and Amina Hersi
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Thirty years on from the commitments enshrined in the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action (BPfA) this briefing reveals a picture of broken promises and unfulfilled ambition by States. This failure is not just due to a lack of political will, but also an economic system that is unequal by design. As world leaders prepare to review their commitments to the BPfA, they must reject the mainstreaming of anti-rights actors and their co-optation of human rights language as this risks violating universal human rights and eroding the hard-won gains of feminist and LGBTQIA+ activists and movements, ultimately breaking the social contract between the state and people.
Topic:: Women, Feminism, Decolonization, Care work, Gender Justice, and Bodily Autonomy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

630. Fast, Fair, Funded and Feminist: A pathway to a just and transformative climate transition within and beyond the UK

Author:: Natalie Shortall, Chiara Ligouri, and Ruth Mayne
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The world is in the grip of a climate emergency. Urgent and equitable action is essential to prevent yet further escalating climate impacts that are devastating communities worldwide and to safeguard a liveable planet for future generations. For governments everywhere, including the UK Government, this is a defining test of leadership. But it is also a moment of opportunity—an opportunity to build economies and societies that are not only decarbonised and climate resilient, but that actively reduce inequalities, are more inclusive, and prioritise the wellbeing of people and the planet over short-term profit. In this report, we outline key steps the UK Government can take to lead the way toward a just and transformative transition—one that not only stabilises the climate but also delivers fairness and justice for all.
Topic:: Climate Change, Government, Transition, Climate Justice, and Net Zero
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

631. Beyond the Targets: An ambitious agenda to put aid back on track

Author:: Salvatore Nocerino
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Aid can make a huge contribution to significantly reducing inequality. Given the widespread agreement that bringing down inequality is necessary to underpin efforts to end poverty, achieve gender justice and successfully fight climate change, there is an urgent need for donors to make this a priority in their aid policies. For this virtuous cycle to be effective, there is also an imperative to rebalance decision-making on aid, ensuring it is done in an inclusive way that centres Global South governments and civil society. Building on the findings of the 2019 Oxfam report 'Hitting the Target: An agenda for aid in times of extreme inequality', this paper presents a new and updated agenda to put aid back on track given recent changes in the development landscape and the multiple crises facing our world. It makes 10 concrete recommendations on how to ensure development finance effectively contributes to building a more equal and sustainable world.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Poverty, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

632. Raising the Bar: Supermarkets must urgently address structural exploitation of cocoa farmers

Author:: Jesse Arnon and Anouk Franck
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Most cocoa farmers in main cocoa producing countries Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are poor, even though they are at the heart of the supply chain for a luxury good: chocolate. For decades they have been receiving low farm gate prices, which don’t allow them to earn a living income for their families. At the same time, companies in the cocoa and chocolate supply chains have been making huge profits. Supermarkets in the Netherlands and Germany have taken first steps by making long-term commitments to ensuring cocoa farmers are paid a living income reference price, but the share of honest chocolate they have on offer only reaches 5%. It’s time that they radically change the way they do business, by committing to long-term fair prices for farmers, sharing the risk with cocoa farmers and being accountable for all the chocolate products they sell. This paper focuses on supermarkets, which are powerful actors in the cocoa and chocolate supply chain. As primary retailers, supermarkets have a direct link with consumers and have power across the supply chain so they can drive real change. Dutch and German supermarkets have made living income commitments, and they have started implementing them.
Topic:: Human Rights, Business, Cocoa, Farming, Living Income, and Supermarkets
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, Netherlands, and Global Focus

633. Water-Driven Hunger: How the Climate Crisis Fuels Africa’s Food Emergency

Author:: Giuseppe Selvaggi and Elise Nalbandian
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This paper calls for an integrated water and food security management in eight Eastern and Southern African countries—Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. These countries, identified as Hunger Hotspots for 2025 and among the 30 most water insecure globally, are also experiencing the severe impacts of climate variability. The paper strongly recommends that multilateral bodies, governments, donors, and the private sector implement sustainable adaptation and mitigation measures—such as strengthening national hydro-meteorological forecasting systems, increasing investment in anticipatory action, ensuring access to climate finance etc. to tackle the root causes of these crises. Furthermore, it also provides insights into effective water management practices that can help national governments and policymakers adopt comprehensive policies, ultimately improving governance to tackle the triple crises of water, food and climate.
Topic:: Climate Change, Water, Hunger, and Water Insecurity
Political Geography:: Africa

634. Land, Peace and Security: Secure access to land as a vital guarantee for the protection of communities in the Sahel

Author:: Mohamadou Fadel Diop
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The lack of secure access to land is a major driver of physical and food insecurity, violence, and violations of the fundamental rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and their host communities. This briefing paper outlines the causes and consequences of restricted land access and explores its links with protection risks in the context of violent conflict and climate change in the Sahel. It highlights the essential role of secure land access and land rights in economic empowerment and protection policies for IDPs and host communities in the Central Sahel, in line with the “Triple Nexus” approach connecting humanitarian action, development and peace.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Displacement, Land Rights, and Protection
Political Geography:: North Africa and Sahel

635. The Private Sphere Trap: Women and the climate crisis in Iraq

Author:: Laila Barhoum
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This Oxfam briefing paper examines the intersection of gender inequality and climate change in Iraq, focusing on the agricultural sector. Women in Iraq face systemic barriers that confine them to the "private sphere," limiting their participation in decision-making processes critical to climate adaptation and mitigation. Through qualitative research, including focus group discussions and key informant interviews, the paper highlights how social norms, economic dependency, and lack of access to resources exacerbate women’s vulnerability to climate impacts. It provides actionable recommendations to foster inclusive climate action, such as raising awareness, leveraging respected female leaders, and improving technical support for farmers. The report underscores the urgent need to dismantle male-dominated structures to build a resilient and equitable future for Iraq.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Inequality, Rural, Decision-Making, Adaptation, Livelihoods, Gender, and Social Norms
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

636. From Pledges to Progress: Tracking climate finance flows and accountability in Nigeria and Uganda

Author:: Tallulah Cherry-Virdee
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Oxfam’s Climate Finance Shadow reports have shown that high-income countries have failed to deliver on their commitment to mobilize climate finance for low- and middle-income countries. In 2024, two country reports, on Uganda and Nigeria, were published that analyzed how the insufficient international climate finance that is reaching their governments is being spent at national and subnational level. The two reports also lay out ways for how civil society can track these flows, ensure meaningful community participation, and hold their governments accountable. This paper analyses the findings and commonalities from the reports on Uganda and Nigeria, and includes recommendations for climate finance providers, national and subnational governments, and civil society on how climate finance can be spent fair, transparent, accountable and in an inclusive manner.
Topic:: Budget, Climate Finance, Citizenship, Accountability, and Participation
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, and Nigeria

637. No Women, No Peace – A Snapshot of Oxfam’s Engagement with the Women, Peace and Security Agenda: Lessons and Opportunities

Author:: Marie Sophie Petersson, Lydia Ayikoru, Souhadou Diasso, Fatma Jaffer, and Moath Jamal
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This briefing paper summarizes the important lessons learned since 2018 by Oxfam Denmark and the wider Oxfam confederation while promoting the women, peace and security (WPS) agenda and supporting WPS programming in Burkina Faso, Colombia, Ghana, Kenya, Lebanon, Mali, Niger, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, South Sudan, Syria, Uganda, Ukraine and Yemen, including under the Danish International Development Agency (Danida) strategic partnerships. It contains practical and policy-level recommendations for international actors working on the WPS agenda in various crisis and conflict contexts globally. The briefing paper shows that supporting and amplifying locally led feminist action by diverse women-led, women’s and LGBTQIA+ rights organizations, networks and groups is a central foundation for peace and justice.
Topic:: Leadership, Crisis Management, Gender, Protection, Localization, Women, Peace, and and Security (WPS)
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Global Focus

638. The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution

Author:: Lloyd Barton
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: This report revisits the analysis presented in our April 2024 paper on the potential impact of WTO dissolution, drilling down to quantify national-level impacts for a sample of ten developing economies. Our previous report (The economic impact of abandoning the WTO) focused on presenting aggregated results for developing countries by region and income level. This report drills down to quantify impacts for a sample of ten individual countries: Brazil, Cameroon, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Turkey, and Vietnam. These countries provide a rich, varied sample that captures the complexity of trade policy in the developing world. Their diversity in geography, economic size, policy orientation, and development stage allows for a nuanced analysis of how WTO dissolution could potentially influence pathways to higher incomes, poverty reduction and economic resilience. Our analysis reinforces the importance of ensuring the WTO can adapt to new trade realities and continue to function as an effective global trade body.
Topic:: Economics, Poverty, Trade, Economic Development, and WTO
Political Geography:: China, Indonesia, Turkey, India, South Africa, Brazil, Vietnam, Egypt, Guatemala, and Cameroon

639. The Economic Impact of the On-demand Service Industry in Indonesia

Author:: Bali Kaur Sodhi and Hwee Shi Yong
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Oxford Economics
Abstract:: The on-demand service industry in Indonesia has become a vital component of the country’s digital economy, improving the everyday lives of millions of Indonesians through its multi-service platforms. Our analysis suggests that the industry, which covers ride-hailing and delivery services, facilitated a total economic contribution worth Rp91.7 trillion to Indonesia’s economy in 2023. In addition, the industry also supported an estimated 588,000 jobs and contributed Rp33.2 trillion in household income. This impact is generated through purchases on the on-demand service platforms and the economic activity it supports among the local supply chains in the wider Indonesian economy. For every employee hired by platform operators, an additional 112 workers are supported in other parts of the Indonesian economy. Every Rp100 of GDP generated by purchases made through on-demand service platforms leads to further economic activity worth Rp110 across the rest of the Indonesian economy. Beyond its economic contributions, the on-demand service industry promotes financial inclusion in Indonesia by offering unbanked individuals and small merchants access to financial services and microloans. On-demand service platforms also connect driver-, delivery-, and merchant-partners to Indonesia’s digital economy, enhancing digital literacy and creating new pathways for economic participation.
Topic:: Economics, Digital Economy, Digital Platforms, and Service Industry
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

640. Introducing Hafiz Pashayev’s An Ambassador’s Manifesto

Author:: Damjan Krnjević Mišković
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: There is a word in the Azerbaijani language—ağsaqqal—which means something like a wise and respected elder of the community from whom one traditionally seeks advice. Hafiz Pashayev is widely acknowledged as the ağsaqqal of the country’s diplomatic service. And the book we are here to celebrate is an important element in explaining this status he deservedly enjoys. Now, before Hafiz m. came to be widely regarded as the ağsaqqal of Azerbaijani diplomacy, he became a founder (fondatore) of “new modes and orders,” as a Florentine political philosopher of the highest rank memorably put it centuries ago [NM, D I:pr.1]. In fact, Hafiz m. founded two such new modes and orders: Azerbaijan’s diplomatic presence in Washington in November 1992, and, here in Baku, the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in March 2006, which in January 2014 was granted a charter and thus officially transformed, following the founder’s original intention, into ADA University. We are here this evening to discuss his memoir of this first founding, titled An Ambassador’s Manifesto. A memoir of the second—or at least on the pedagogical and state‑building logic informing this second founding—is yet to come.
Topic:: Diplomacy and Memoir
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Azerbaijan

641. Climate Change, Vulnerable Groups, and Data-Driven Policymaking

Author:: Selahattin Selsah Pasali
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: More than four in five people in Asia and the Pacific reportedly face multi‑hazard risks associated with slow or sudden onset climate events, according to the latest Asia‑Pacific Disaster Report published by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). Many existing hotspots of climate‑related multi‑hazards are forecast to intensify. Individuals residing in these hotspots, often already low‑income and with limited access to basic services and infrastructure, will likely be exposed to more frequent and intense sudden‑ and slow‑onset natural disasters. Noteworthy is the assessment that migrants, refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and stateless persons residing in many parts of these vast geographic areas reportedly face even more daunting challenges in this category, due to their vulnerable legal status, limited coping capacity, and access to basic services and opportunities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Inequality, Displacement, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:: Asia

642. Progress in Ending Statelessness in Europe

Author:: Sam Mosallai
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Europe is home to almost 500,000 stateless people or people with undetermined nationality, mainly due to the dissolution of the former Soviet Union and the former Yugoslavia over three decades ago. Other causes of statelessness in Europe include the lack of safeguards to prevent children from being born stateless, gaps in universal birth registration, and, to a lesser extent, the deprivation of nationality as a counterterrorism measure. Many Roma, particularly those residing in Southeastern Europe, are stateless or at risk of statelessness due to persistent discrimination against them. Additionally, due to the lack of dedicated statelessness determination procedures found in many countries in Europe, many stateless migrants cannot enjoy the rights to which they are entitled under international law.
Topic:: Discrimination, Nationality, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Europe

643. A Region without Statelessness?: How Central Asia Proved It Is Possible

Author:: Sergiu Gaina
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Imagine living in the country where you were born but never having the right to call it home. No passport, no identity document, no access to education, healthcare, or legal employment. Every visit to a government office ends the same way: “We have no record of you.” For hundreds of thousands of people in Central Asia, this was their reality. Statelessness—where a person is not recognized as a national (citizen) by any country—left them in limbo, unable to fully participate in society. It meant exclusion from essential services, vulnerability to exploitation, and a life spent on the margins, with no clear path to change. But things have changed. Over the past decade or so, Central Asia has led the world in ending statelessness. The region has solved one‑third of all statelessness cases globally—a clear demonstration that with sufficient political will and strategic action, this problem can be eradicated. Since 2014, more than 220,000 formerly stateless people in Central Asia have acquired nationality (citizenship), making it one of the most successful regions in the world in reducing stateless populations.
Topic:: Citizenship, Services, Nationality, and Statelessness
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan

644. Uncharted Rebellion: The Shifting Frontiers of Left-Wing Extremism

Author:: José Pedro Zúquete
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: For readers of Baku Dialogues, a journal dedicated to fostering intellectual exchange across the Silk Road region, the study of left‑wing extremism (LWE) offers a lens into global ideological currents that resonate even in this historically rich and geopolitically and geoeconomically significant area. The Silk Road region, stretching from the South Caucasus to Central Asia, has long been a crossroads of cultures, ideas, and political movements. Today, it faces many of the same challenges of radicalization and extremism that afflict other parts of the world, though often in unique local forms.
Topic:: Security, Geopolitics, Leftist Politics, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:: Central Asia and South Caucasus

645. Sharks in the Muddy Waters: Terrorism and Mounting Global Disorder

Author:: Jahangir E. Arasli
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The international system is in increasing disarray, thanks partly to systemic and structural factors. The strategic competition between major powers and groups of states is growing sharply. One particular consequence of this process is an escalation in scale and scope of shooting wars and armed conflicts (e.g., in Europe and the Middle East) and other antagonisms on the edge of war (e.g., Taiwan, the South China Sea, and South Asia). Moreover, the existing geopolitical alignments are shifting oddly. Neo‑revisionism, expansionist foreign policies, and advanced territorial claims militarize international relations. With a reoccurrence of “utility of force,” the standing norms of international law are frying, and WMD proliferation regimes and arms control treaties are crumbling. Trade wars and deteriorating growth prospects are increasing strains and risks to the global economy and individual states. Political and ideological polarization in societies, institutional decay, inefficiency of elites, and the rise of populism affect states’ stability. The challenges of climate change and emerging technologies remain unanswered and unsettled.
Topic:: Terrorism, Geopolitics, Armed Conflict, and International System
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

646. A Proposal for a Trans-Caspian Development Bank

Author:: Carlos Roa, Charles Yockey, and Ibrahim Mammadov
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Diplomacy is not alchemy. Just as lead cannot be magically turned into gold, grand visions require practical tools to become reality. The Middle Corridor—a trade and transport route stretching from Central Asia across the Caspian Sea to the South Caucasus and onward to Türkiye and the European continent—is one such vision. The corridor has captured the imagination of policymakers and strategists, who seek to reorient global trade flows, diversify energy routes, and diminish dependencies on geopolitical chokepoints like the Suez Canal. Yet, for all its potential, the Middle Corridor still remains more of an ambition than a reality, constrained by insufficient infrastructure, fragmented political coordination, and—perhaps most importantly, a lack of cohesive financial strategy. For the Middle Corridor to succeed as a vital artery of international commerce, it requires more than bilateral agreements and fragmented investments. The project requires a dedicated institution capable of bridging its diverse stakeholders, financing transformative projects, and aligning growth with the twenty‑first century’s imperatives like digital innovation and climate adaptation. A Trans‑Caspian Development Bank (TCDB) could provide precisely the kind of focused and flexible framework needed to turn the Middle Corridor into a thriving economic corridor. By pooling resources and expertise from member states, private investors, and international partners, the TCDB would fill the critical gap between lofty ambitions and actionable progress.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Trade, and Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)
Political Geography:: Central Asia and South Caucasus

647. Assessing the Achievements of COP29

Author:: Elnur Soltanov
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Azerbaijan became the first country from the Silk Road region to host an annual session of the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change—in this case, the 29th session. Hence, COP29. This took place in Baku between 11 and 22 November 2024 and had something like 76,000 registered participants. And Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry has a document that says that COP29 “was attended by representatives of 196 countries and nearly 200 international, regional, and other organizations. More than 80 heads of state and government participated at the World Leaders’ Climate Action Summit organized within the framework of COP29 on 12-13 November 2024.” So, evidently, this was hard to pull-off successfully.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Conference of the Parties (COP)
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Azerbaijan

648. Achieving Minimum Viable Cyber Resilience: A Leadership Top Ten “To-Do” List

Author:: Steve Hill
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: I t is a reflection of the growing maturity of the cybersecurity industry that when the UK’s Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Pat McFadden, a senior cabinet minister responsible for national security, claimed in a speech to the November 2024 NATO Cyber Defence Conference that Russia “can turn the lights off for millions,” he was roundly criticized for hyperbole. Pragmatism has replaced alarmism as the driver for persuading the state and the C-suite to invest in cybersecurity. The world has neither ever been more complex nor more fast-moving. But that is not the same as saying that the world is more dangerous. The same inter-connectedness that creates supply-chain fragility also acts as a disincentive for governments whose priorities are primarily inward-looking (domestic stability and growth) to escalate conflicts to outright regional or global warfare that will likely undermine that domestic agenda. We see therefore brinkmanship and “grey conflict” taking place throughout the world. This includes targeted assassinations, arson attacks, disruption of underseas cables, drone activity, social media election influence campaigns, and all kinds of cyber-attacks.
Topic:: NATO, Cybersecurity, Gray Zone, Resilience, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and North America

649. PfP Enters its Fourth Decade: A Journey Undertaken with Azerbaijan

Author:: Rick Fawn
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Azerbaijan was one of the first countries to join NATO’s major outreach program, Partnership for Peace (PfP), upon its establishment at the Alliance’s summit in Brussels on 10-11 January 1994—a year that also marked the fifty-fifth anniversary of the founding of the Alliance itself. This happened on 4 May 1994, when President Heydar Aliyev came to Brussels to sign the Partnership for Peace Framework Document, an event that took place about a year after he returned to Baku to begin pulling the country back from the edge of total collapse. Surely there was an element of deliberate sequencing involved, for the very next day after signing this document, on 5 May 1994, a final agreement was reached on a Russianbrokered ceasefire to end the First Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And only four months later, in September 1994, the negotiations on the Contract of the Century were successfully concluded that would facilitate the export westwards of Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbons rather than through Russia. This last development had been predicated—and again unlikely to be coincidental timing—by the Clinton Administration’s abandonment of its “Russia First” policy, which had elevated Moscow’s interests above those of other post-Soviet successor states.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Azerbaijan

650. Training Diplomats in Azerbaijan: Past Successes and Future Plans

Author:: Fariz Ismailzade
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of Azerbaijan as one of 15 newly independent republics in 1991, the development of a sovereign and professional diplomatic service became of utmost importance and urgency. Doing so, it was understood, was a necessary attribute and instrument for pursuing a country’s foreign policy agenda, which at minimum should aim to strengthen sovereignty, minimize external risks, develop bilateral and multilateral relations, and properly position a given country on the global map of nations. Yet apart from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, Azerbaijan and the remaining 11 former Soviet republics had limited experience with a truly professional and competent diplomatic service. The Soviet Union granted little authority to the ‘ethnic republics’ and provided them with no autonomy in foreign relations. Consequently, the offices of the republic-level Ministries of Foreign Affairs remained quite small and primarily handled protocol responsibilities for foreign dignitaries and guests traveling from Moscow to those parts of the country. The one in Baku, for instance, was established in 1944 as the People’s Commissariat of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, Training, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Azerbaijan

651. Breaking Free from Parochial Geopolitical Complexity: Azerbaijan’s Quest for a Third Path

Author:: Vasif Huseynov
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Though geographically small at 186,043 square kilometers—and dwarfed by neighboring Iran, Türkiye, and especially Russia—the South Caucasus is home to over 50 distinct ethnic groups, encompassing a diverse tapestry of languages, religions, and cultures. Another unique characteristic for a region of this size is its consistent role as a microcosm of global geopolitics. This has been the case since the region’s three countries regained their respective independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, with each aligning with different geopolitical centers. While Georgia pursued Euro-Atlantic integration, Armenia aligned with Russia within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Azerbaijan, adopting a balanced foreign policy, opted for neutrality, maintaining equidistance and cultivating friendly, mutually-beneficial relations with both Russia and the West.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Diversity, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

652. Washington’s Opportunity in Central Asia (and the South Caucasus)

Author:: Stephen Blank
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: As the Trump Administration conducts a global survey of strategic opportunities for the United States, it would be well advised to view Central Asia and the South Caucasus (the core subregions of what this journal’s Editorial Statement calls the “Silk Road region” and what is commonly still called “Eurasia” in some circles) as areas where a creative, new approach would yield lasting strategic gains—both for America and those states themselves. To be sure, this region is not and will not become a major priority or a vital interest for the United States—nor is that necessary. But its importance in world politics as an area of strategic competition among many rival states, including Russia and China and several aspirant and rising middle powers, is increasing. Therefore, it should be understood to be beneficial for all the states in Central Asia and the South Caucasus that Washington both enhance and sustain at a higher level its comprehensive, multi-dimensional engagement with them because only America can provide or convene many of the public goods they need.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Central Asia, South Caucasus, and United States of America

653. A Transforming Eurasian Order

Author:: Feng Yujun
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: I n recent years, driven by multiple factors, the international order has been undergoing rapid adjustment, evolution, and reshaping. In Eurasia, the Russia-Ukraine war has triggered persisting upheaval, acting as a pivotal catalyst for shifts in the regional order. Its impact has prompted historic changes in power dynamics, mutual perceptions, national identities, and strategic orientations among Eurasian states—shifts unmatched since the Soviet Union’s dissolution over three decades ago. These transformations are set to profoundly influence the regional order, becoming a central element in current and future global developments.
Topic:: Post-Soviet Space, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

654. The New Geopolitical Scramble for Corridors

Author:: Velina Tchakarova
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The geopolitical landscape in winter 2024- 2025 is marked by significant transformation, uncertainty, and fierce competition for influence. The geopolitical hotspots of this new contest are most visible in the regions that bridge Europe and Asia—what the editors of Baku Dialogues call the “Silk Road region.” Central to this dynamic is the growing intersection of interests between major regional players against the backdrop of a Cold War 2.0, putting the West against what I was the first to call the “DragonBear” alliance of China and Russia. These corridors are not just infrastructural undertakings; they are the arteries of global power, trade, and connectivity, reflecting deeper geopolitical ambitions and contestations. This extensive analysis elaborates on today’s most significant connectivity projects, exploring their strategic implications and the new power dynamics they are fostering. In the traditional sense, empires have always relied on transport and trade corridors to project power and expand influence. From the ancient Silk Roads to the West’s colonial sea routes, the ability to control the flow of goods and resources has often equated to geopolitical dominance. Today, this principle remains unchanged, though the scale and stakes have reached unprecedented levels.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Trade, and International Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

655. Back to the Future: The Rise of Militarization in China in the 2020s

Author:: Tai Ming Cheung
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: In this policy brief, IGCC director Tai Ming Cheung analyzes Chinese militarization efforts as the country seeks tighter integration of the civilian and defense economies and a strong sense of national security, and whether such efforts lead to China being more prone to going to war in the near future.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Economy, and Militarization
Political Geography:: China and Asia

656. (Digital) cash transfers, privacy and women’s empowerment: Evidence from Uganda

Author:: Greco Giulia, Gulesci Selim, Prabhakar Pallavi, and Sulaiman Munshi
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: This study reports findings from a randomized controlled trial in Uganda that provided unconditional cash transfers to married women, varying the payment method (cash or mobile money) and whether spouses were informed. Results show that mobile money transfers significantly enhance women’s economic independence and decision-making power, as reflected in increased personal labor income and greater say in household decisions. In contrast, cash transfers are more effective in reducing intimate partner violence (IPV), especially when both spouses are informed about the transfer. These findings reveal a critical trade-off: while digital payments promote women’s financial control, they may be less effective in addressing IPV. The study underscores the importance of considering both economic empowerment and safety outcomes when designing transfer programs for women.
Topic:: Economics, Women, Privacy, Empowerment, and Cash Transfers
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

657. Adapting and Validating WEE Indicators in an Experimental Study of Savings

Author:: Anahit Tevosyan, Scott Graham, and Joeri Smiths
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:: Traditional indicators of Women’s Economic Empowerment (WEE) are often too broad to effectively measure specific behavioral outcomes like women’s savings behavior (WSB). This study addresses that gap by identifying contextually relevant WEE indicators that closely align with savings behavior, using data from 1,498 FINCA Uganda women savers. It employs a two-step validation approach. First, qualitative methods such as focus groups and cognitive interviews establish a set of WEE indicators tailored to the local context. Then, machine learning models test how well these indicators predict actual savings behavior. The study links women’s self-perceived empowerment with real financial actions—setting savings goals, making deposits, and using funds purposefully. Further validation comes from a subsample exposed to a low-cost coaching intervention, which strengthens the WEE-WSB relationship and reveals which empowerment factors make coaching more or less effective. Notably, the research highlights often-overlooked domains such as external social influence and the complexity of decision-making burdens. This work offers a more targeted, behavior-linked approach to measuring WEE, with potential to improve the design and evaluation of development programs across varied contexts.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Women, Empowerment, and Savings
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

658. The Primacy of Politics at the Local Level in UN Peace Operations

Author:: Allard Duursma and Jenna Russo
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: The “primacy of politics” has become a central tenet of UN peacekeeping. This reflects a broad recognition that peacekeeping operations should be deployed in support of a political solution to conflict. In practice, however, the primacy of politics is often narrowly understood as referring to formal, national-level political processes. This overlooks the fact that politics also happens at the local level, both formally and informally. It is critical for UN peace operations to address these local-level politics. Local-level conflicts account for a large share of conflict-related deaths in peacekeeping contexts. They are also closely tied to national-level peace efforts. This has led UN peace operations to become increasingly involved in supporting local peace processes. This report examines how the primacy of politics applies to the local level in UN peacekeeping settings. It highlights the indispensable role of civil affairs components in fostering sustainable peace. When effectively integrated into broader mission strategies, the localized approaches of civil affairs personnel not only address immediate conflict drivers but also contribute to the durability of national-level agreements. These efforts demonstrate that the success of peacekeeping operations hinges on balancing top-down mandates with grassroots engagement, underscoring the interconnectedness of local and national dynamics. The paper concludes with recommendations to strengthen local political engagement in peace operations: Member states should adopt a definition of the primacy of politics that encompasses both formal and informal processes at both the national and subnational levels. The Security Council should also continue incorporating tasks related to local political processes in mission mandates, and the General Assembly should adequately resource these mandates. Mission leaders should craft political strategies that are both top-down and bottom-up. This requires consulting regularly with field offices and reflecting local dynamics in national-level political efforts. They should also ensure coordination between mission components, including civil-military coordination. Civil affairs personnel should systematically map stakeholders at the national and subnational levels to understand how they fit together. They should also map the political economy of local conflicts and form partnerships to target the drivers of these conflicts.
Topic:: Politics, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

659. The United Nations–African Union Partnership and the Protection of Civilians

Author:: Andrew E. Yaw Tchie and Lauren McGowan
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: The landscape of peace operations in Africa has transformed over the past decade, including a marked increase in African-led peace support operations (PSOs). Since the early 2000s, the African Union (AU) and UN have evolved distinct, albeit parallel, conceptual and operational approaches to the protection of civilians (POC). While the UN views POC in peacekeeping as a whole-of-mission objective, with military, police, and civilian components prioritizing POC and proactively protecting civilians, the AU views itself as contributing to the protection of civilians primarily by neutralizing armed groups and establishing a protective environment. These differences raise important questions about how POC will be upheld in the context of the UN-AU partnership. This report examines the operational differences between UN and AU approaches to POC, assessing their respective advantages and limitations. It highlights how African-led PSOs tend to be more able and willing to use force to respond to outbreaks of violence and to contain aggressors but have less sustainable and flexible financing than UN peacekeeping operations. Meanwhile, UN peacekeeping missions with POC mandates have more robust civilian and police components but may lack rapid response capabilities. To strengthen their partnership on POC, the two organizations should leverage their comparative advantages, acknowledge their respective limitations, and work toward an approach to POC that is tailored to each context. Based on the findings in this report, the following recommendations are made: Understandings of POC: The UN Department of Peace Operations (DPO) and AU Peace Support Operations Division (PSOD) should continue to facilitate understanding of their comparative advantages and challenges on POC. POC should be a central focus of efforts to implement the 2017 Joint Framework for Enhanced Partnership in Peace and Security. UN DPO and AU PSOD should share lessons learned and strengthen each other’s capacity. The AU compliance team should continue to support regional economic communities in adhering to AU POC policies. Structures on POC: The UN and AU should establish a joint lessons-learned mechanism within the UN Office to the AU to systematically assess joint UN-AU missions and African-led operations. UN DPO and AU PSOD should develop and implement a joint protection strategy when engaged in partnered operations. UN DPO and AU PSOD should conduct a thorough joint POC assessment prior to any partnered deployments. The AU Peace and Security Council and UN Security Council should engage in regular consultations on peace support operations, including on mandates.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Civilians, African Union, Protection, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:: Africa

660. UN Peace Operations and Unconstitutional Changes of Government

Author:: Albert Trithart and Bitania Tadesse
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: There has been a significant increase in the number of unconstitutional changes of government (UCGs) since 2020. This presents a challenge for the United Nations, which has a presence in all countries that have recently experienced UCGs. In places like Afghanistan, Mali, and Sudan, it has also presented particular challenges to UN peace operations, which face the task of continuing to carry out their work amid a political crisis and using their good offices to facilitate a peaceful return to constitutional order. The report examines lessons from the experiences of the UN missions in Afghanistan (UNAMA), Mali (MINUSMA), and Sudan (UNITAMS) following recent UCGs. It provides a brief overview of recent trends in UCGs and how the responses of member states and international and regional organizations have impacted the responses of UN peace operations. It then analyzes how these UN peace operations approached political engagement with the de facto authorities. It concludes with several lessons: A principled approach at the highest levels of the UN: While some UCGs may bring to power leaders with greater political will to engage with the UN, they are almost always an indicator of growing political instability. The UN secretary-general, along with the African Union (AU) and other regional organizations, should thus continue adopting a principled approach to condemning UCGs. A pragmatic approach for UN peace operations: While the UN should take a principled approach to UCGs at the headquarters level, UN peace operations are well-positioned to take a more pragmatic approach to engaging with de facto authorities. They should take advantage of any openness displayed by the authorities to engage despite fears that doing so might legitimize them. Planning for UCGs and reviewing political strategies: Even if the UN is unable to prevent UCGs, it can better prepare for managing relationships with transitional authorities. It is therefore important to consider such scenarios in mission planning for potential and current operations and to conduct strategic assessments as soon as possible following UCGs to consider how to adapt and potentially identify a new direction for engagement. The challenge of remaining impartial: Fears of “legitimizing” de facto authorities stem from the assumption that those authorities are inherently illegitimate. Yet not all elected authorities have popular legitimacy, and not all authorities who come to power unconstitutionally lack it. UN missions thus need to factor public opinion into how they respond on the ground. The need for a “One UN” response: While there is unlikely to be a “one-size-fits-all” approach to engagement with de facto authorities across the entire UN presence in a country, coordination is needed to ensure UN personnel have a common understanding of core principles of engagement and a coherent approach to communication. The limits of UN engagement: Ultimately, the ability of UN missions to shape political transitions following UCGs tends to be constrained by factors outside their control. Regional organizations like the AU and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) tend to adopt a more principled response, raising questions about the extent to which UN missions should seek to link their engagement to that of these organizations. Missions also face competing pressures from member states supporting different political factions.
Topic:: Government, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Sudan, Mali, and Global Focus

661. Minilateral Mechanisms for Peacemaking in a Multipolar World: Friends, Contact Groups, Troikas, Quads, and Quints

Author:: Teresa Whitfield
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:: Informal “minilateral” coalitions of the willing and interested have long been a feature of peacemaking. Groups of states identified as “friends” of the mediator or a particular peace process and contact groups bringing together interested powers date back to concert diplomacy traditions and proliferated at the end of the Cold War as conflict resolution activity surged. The incidence of such informal mechanisms grew exponentially between 1990 and 2009. This report assesses how these mechanisms have evolved in the years since 2010 and investigates their place in parallel to the UN’s efforts to mediate internationalized internal conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen; peace processes in the Philippines, Colombia, and Mozambique taking place in relatively benign regional settings, as well as the anomalous case of Venezuela, where efforts toward a peaceful resolution of the political crisis were mired in international divisions; the geopolitically contested contexts of Myanmar and Afghanistan; and the democratic transition and descent into war in Sudan. The report concludes that groups have the potential to build internal coherence among their members, as well as to elevate public messaging and facilitate information sharing, but they can also become a forum for competition between their members. In this context, the report offers lessons to help those considering whether a group is appropriate. The “right” group structure will depend on the context, and the adage of “form follows function” is critically important. It is key to set realistic expectations and, in some cases, accept that the “right” structure will be no group at all. Successful groups and partnerships all point to the importance of skilled individual mediators committed to working with each other, whether within a group or without an established mechanism. Finally, some contexts may defy attempts to design or deliver a coherent international peace architecture. In these cases, more modest goals related to specific or localized gains and incremental support to conflict parties and other affected communities should be pursued.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Peacemaking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

662. Infrastructure Grids and Networks. The Challenges Ahead, amid Security and Efficiency

Author:: Carlo Secchi and Alessandro Gili
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: In recent years, accelerating geopolitical tensions, economic disruptions, and climate-related disasters have elevated resilience and economic security to the forefront of both global and European policy agendas. In response, strategies such as de-risking have driven substantial investments in redundancy, new trade corridors, and expanded infrastructure – including railway lines, highways, ports, electricity grids, pipelines, and undersea digital cables. This infrastructure forms the backbone of the global economy. It is not only crucial for maintaining competitiveness and supporting growth but also plays a central role in enabling the energy and digital transitions. As such, protecting these systems from hostile actions or third-party interference has become an urgent priority. At the same time, the long-standing trade-off between efficiency and security has grown more pronounced amid increasingly strained international relations. Both governments and private sector actors are now more willing to absorb higher costs in order to enhance the resilience of supply chains and connectivity networks. Against this backdrop, a new paradigm is emerging - one that raises two critical questions: Where will the balance ultimately settle between economic efficiency and security/resilience? And what investment priorities will shape the future of transport, energy, and digital connectivity infrastructure?
Topic:: Security, Infrastructure, Economy, Energy, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:: Global Focus

663. Lonely in the Crowd: Plugged or Remote?

Author:: Tobia Zevi
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic forced cities to shut down and citizens to stay home, disrupting economic activity and social life. The crisis pushed companies to adopt remote work, transforming it from a niche practice to a widespread norm, altering the balance between work and personal life. This shift created inequalities across sectors and influenced the ability of "global cities" to attract talent in a globalized labor market. Now, as the pandemic has receded, many companies are reversing course. This Report explores how remote work has impacted cities and citizens, from mobility to urban planning. How can remote work reshape global cities? What strategies are available to local authorities? Is remote work still the future?
Topic:: Cities, COVID-19, Labor Market, Digitalization, and Remote Work
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

664. Friends and Foes in the Indo-Pacific: Multilateralism Out, Minilateralism In?

Author:: Axel Berkofsky and Guido Alberto Casanova
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Minilateralism is already among us, and it is here to stay. The well-known shortcomings of the multilateral system of governance are pushing individual states in the Indo-Pacific to come up with new and different solutions to deal with the security and prosperity issues that current institutions are unable to tackle. Amid growing geopolitical rivalries and the uncertainty provoked by the re-election of Donald Trump, this report aims to shed some clarity on an emerging trend that is already affecting the foreign policy of great powers in a region that is central to global affairs.
Topic:: Security, Alliance, Multilateralism, Institutions, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Japan, India, Asia, North Korea, Philippines, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

665. Are bad governments a threat to sovereign defaults? The effects of political risk on debt sustainability

Author:: Samantha Ajovalasit, Andrea Consiglio, Giovanni Pagliardi, and Stavros Zenios
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Political risk is a significant determinant of bond yields and economic growth in both developed and emerging markets and we develop a debt sustainability analysis model with both channels using a country ratings proxy of political risk. Political risk also affects a sovereign’s willingness to pay and it can render debt unsustainable, triggered by changes in the rating level, volatility or both. Conversely, sustainability can be restored through reforms that can be as effective as large-scale quantitative easing programmes. The political effects on debt are especially large for high-debt countries during periods of high interest rates, and have an impact on debt management through the choice of optimal financing maturities.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Macroeconomics, Sustainability, Public Debt, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:: Europe

666. Gender diversity and economic growth

Author:: Jonathan Ostry
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Most macroeconomic and growth accounting models assume that male and female workers are perfectly substitutable in the aggregate production function. Whether this assumption is valid is an empirical question that this paper aims to answer by estimating the elasticity of substitution between female and male labour. We apply linear and non-linear techniques to firm-level data, cross-country sectoral data and cross-country aggregate data. We find that women and men are far from being perfect substitutes in production, a result that is consistent with much microeconomic evidence, but has not permeated to macroeconomics. The failure to account for imperfect gender substitutability has far-reaching implications. In particular, standard growth accounting exercises are likely to attribute to technological progress gains that are more properly attributable to the impact of greater gender inclusiveness in the labour force over time. Put differently, the gains from gender inclusiveness are likely to be much larger than standard economic models estimate.
Topic:: Governance, Women, Employment, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Global Focus

667. Dilemmas for the EU in deficit-financing of defence expenditure and maintenance of fiscal discipline

Author:: Lucio Pench
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union is grappling with the challenge of increasing defence expenditure while maintaining fiscal discipline under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The European Commission has proposed activating the national escape clause available under the SGP to accommodate defence spending without triggering the excessive deficit procedure (EDP). However, the scope and enforcement of this measure remain uncertain. A proposed 1.5 percent of GDP cap on extra fiscal flexibility is legally questionable and unlikely to be enforced. While low-debt countries do not require the clause due to existing flexibility, highly indebted nations may find it insufficient in the face of rising debt costs. The escape clause may also serve as a backdoor for European Central Bank interventions under the Transmission Protection Instrument, which requires compliance with EU fiscal rules. The Commission has also proposed the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) funding mechanism, a €150 billion loan programme to finance national defence investments. SAFE relies on national borrowing and follows the model of the SURE (Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency) facility, put in place during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, SAFE’s limited scale and dependence on national fiscal capacities mean it falls short of the collective security funding approach advocated by economists. Meanwhile, Germany’s decision to reform its constitutional debt brake marks a major departure from its traditional fiscal policies. The reform establishes a permanent ‘defence golden rule’, exempting military spending from borrowing limits, alongside a €10 trillion infrastructure fund. Although this move does not endanger Germany’s fiscal sustainability, it undermines EU-wide fiscal coordination and conflicts with the SGP. This could weaken the European Central Bank’s position in future market interventions. Given these challenges, discussions on a new EU fiscal framework are necessary to ensure fiscal flexibility while maintaining debt sustainability.
Topic:: Security, Budget, European Union, Fiscal Policy, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:: Europe

668. The quickly fading memory of why and when bank capital is important

Author:: Jesper Berg, Nicolas Boivin, and Hans Geeroms
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Less than fifteen years after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, banks and policymakers are calling for deregulation and lower capital requirements in the financial sector. They dispute that the Basel framework, the global standards for regulating large international banks, should be implemented fully in the European Union. One concern is that stricter capital regulation will affect the competitiveness of European banks compared to those in the United States and will restrict loan provision in the EU, despite Europe’s significant investment gap. However, deregulation should not be confused with reducing capital requirements for banks. On balance, there is only limited empirical evidence that respecting the capital requirements necessary to support financial stability hampers credit to the economy, investment or economic growth in the long term. Only well-capitalised banks can continue financing the economy during economic setbacks, and weakening the implementation of the Basel standards increases the risks of a new financial crisis. Bank lending and access to financing surveys also show there is no credit crunch in the euro area at present and that capital requirements are not the primary constraint on credit provision. A detailed look at current banking regulation does not support the conclusion that European banks are more strictly regulated overall than US banks. A direct comparison suggests rather the opposite. However, the compliance cost incurred by EU banks from current banking regulation can be reduced by simplifying EU rules.
Topic:: Markets, Financial Crisis, European Union, Regulation, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:: Europe

669. Lessons for the European Central Bank from the 2021-2023 inflationary episode

Author:: Pablo Hernández de Cos
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Since mid-2021, the euro-area economy has gone through several shocks, leading to the highest inflation since the creation of the European Monetary Union. A forceful and persistent response from the European Central Bank, grounded in the monetary policy framework it agreed in 2021 ahead of the inflationary episode, has succeeded in bringing inflation down and delivering on the central bank’s price-stability mandate. The framework will be reviewed in 2025 and it might conclude that there is no need for a drastic change. Nevertheless, this assessment should be compatible with identifying some areas for improvement. In particular, the 2021 review was primarily focused on the effective lower bound. The recent inflationary episode, together with high ongoing uncertainty, indicate that the articulation of monetary policy strategy frameworks should be robust to very different scenarios. Likely persistence of high levels of uncertainty over the next few years will also require an emphasis on flexibility to adapt to the magnitude, origin and persistence of shocks. Unconditional forward guidance should be avoided. In addition, there might be a need to more clearly distinguish in the future, when possible, between quantitative easing for market functioning versus monetary stimulus, which could incentivise a careful assessment of the amount, duration and structure of any asset purchase programme. Communication also needs to be improved in relation to the level of uncertainty and its consequences for monetary policy making with, for instance, greater use of scenarios and sensitivity analyses as appropriate. Improving forecasting/modelling tools, in particular when dealing with large supply shocks, and understanding the roles of different measures of inflation expectations should also be priorities.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Governance, European Union, Central Bank, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe

670. Sovereigns on thinning ice: debt sustainability, climate impacts and adaptation

Author:: Matteo Calcaterra, Andrea Consiglio, Vincenzo Martorana, Massimo Tavoni, and Stavros Zenios
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: A fundamental problem for sovereigns enacting climate policies is whether they can manage increasing debts as their economies suffer from adverse climate impacts. We develop stochastic debt sustainability analysis integrating a coupled climate-economy model with debt financing scenario optimisation, and stress test sovereign debt for representative countries globally under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change marker narrative scenarios of climate change. The stress test combines socioeconomic and climate pathways with calibrated aleatory scenario trees of economic, fiscal and financial variables to generate forward-looking debt projections over the century. These projections incorporate climate-induced damages to economic growth, spanning the broad spectrum of impact functions from the literature. Our findings reveal significant risks to sovereign debt sustainability, particularly under high climate damages, that are large from mid-century. Expected costs increase by up to 3 percent of GDP under high climate impact in a world of regional rivalries, or 0.25 percent under low impact in a middle-of-the-road narrative, with considerable variation between countries. The long-run debts of highly impacted countries are unsustainable. We assess whether adaptation investments or fiscal consolidation can mitigate potential climate-debt crises. Public financing of reactive adaptation is a justified expenditure that breaks even but does not fully restore the debt sustainability of highly impacted high-debt countries. Maintaining public spending while ensuring debt sustainability appears infeasible under climate impacts.
Topic:: Climate Change, Governance, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Public Debt, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

671. Radical novelties in critical technologies and spillovers: how do China, the US and the EU fare?

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Michal Krystyanczuk, and Robin Schindowski
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Critical technologies including artificial intelligence, semiconductors and quantum computing are attracting attention because of their indispensable nature and their role in national security strategies. We compare China, the United States and the European Union in these technologies and their subfields. We use large language models (LLMs) to identify which patents in these technologies can be considered most groundbreaking (not patented before) and worth replicating. These are ‘radical novelties.’ We find that the US clearly dominates quantum. Chinese and EU progress is similar. The US does slightly better than China in AI with clear dominance in generative AI, but China stands out in some important subfields, such as aerial vehicle technology. China dominates in a larger number of semiconductor fields but not in the highest value added, which is related to design. In a second step we assess how quickly radical novelties in these three technologies are transferred from one economic area to another and within each economic area. We find that the fastest transmission overall is for AI. The EU is by far the slowest in replicating radical novelties from the US and China, while the US and China tend to replicate European novel patents relatively quickly. Radical novelties are also replicated quickly between China and the US which is surprising given US controls on exports of critical technologies to China. Our findings are concerning for Europe because it does not produce enough critical patents in these technologies and because it is slower in replicating patents from the US and China.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economy, Trade, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and United States of America

672. Which companies are ahead in frontier innovation on critical technologies? Comparing China, the European Union and the United States

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Michal Krystyanczuk, and Robin Schindowski
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Competition in critical technologies is attracting increasing attention not only because of the foundational nature of these technologies for other types of innovation, but also because of their role in the United States national security strategy. In this paper, we look into which entities in China, the European Union and the US innovate at the technology frontier in the three most important critical technologies – artificial intelligence, quantum computing and semiconductors – based on identification of the most radical novel patents in these technologies and their subsectors. Working with these pathbreaking patents, we look into the origin of the companies that file the largest numbers of them. US innovators dominate the innovation frontier for quantum computing and, to a lesser extent, AI, with Chinese innovators doing better in semiconductors. European innovators lag in all, but perform relatively better in quantum computing, in which they rank similarly to Chinese innovators. Furthermore, the innovation ecosystem is quite different across geographies. In the US, tech companies top the rankings of critical novelties and are highly concentrated: as many as three companies are in the top rankings of all of the three critical technologies. Frontier innovators in the field in which the EU competes most equally – quantum – are mostly research centres and not companies. China lies somewhat in between in all three domains.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and United States of America

673. India-China rapprochement: what are the long-term prospects?

Author:: Nayanima Basu and Alicia Garcia-Herrero
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: China-India relations, which have long been fraught, were further complicated by the 2020 military standoff on the Himalayan border. The political disruption had a significant impact on Chinese companies’ presence in India. And yet, India’s dependence on Chinese imports has increased since. The Indian economy is decelerating at a challenging time for Prime Minister Modi, who governs in a coalition. China could offer a partial solution to India’s economic woes by providing manufacturing FDI and creating jobs. The Modi-Xi ‘rapprochement’ after their encounter at the October 2024 BRICS summit signals that relations could improve. India may be willing to accept targeted investment from China, but relations are unlikely to fully normalise, particularly since the 2025 India-Pakistan military stand-off. There are three main reasons for this. First, the Indian army remains cautious about the situation at the border and security risks relating to China. Second, the United States under President Trump will exert pressure on Modi not to depend further on China. This is even more relevant in the context of Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on India. Third, Indian public opinion on China and the Belt and Road Initiative remains negative. India is predicted to experience greater growth than China in the coming decades, meaning China could lose its upper hand in economic relations between the two countries. This, however, will depend on how dependent India might have become on China for imports or for jobs through FDI and other channels. The militarised border, India’s asymmetric economic dependence on China and China’s leadership in the Global South will still shape the relationship even if the Indian economy grows to a similar size to China’s. India-China ‘rapprochement’ is possible but will remain fragile and unlikely to be maintained in the long run.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Governance, Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, and Trade
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

674. Intra-Western Balkans dynamics: stocktaking and ways ahead

Author:: Armin Steinbach, Nina Vujanović, and Anna Fiore
Publication Date:: 05-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: In the context of the push by the European Union for regional integration in the Western Balkans, this paper explores the barriers to, and prospects for, deeper intra-Western Balkan economic relationships. First, it addresses the pronounced bilateral economic relationships between Western Balkan countries associated with historical path-dependencies. Second, by comparing the Central European Free Trade Agreement with Stabilisation and Association Agreements that the EU has with Western Balkan countries, it identifies areas of less economic integration under the former. Third, it focuses on intra-Western Balkan trade barriers and how the associated costs influence regional integration. Finally, the paper describes the structures of Western Balkan economies and how much they contribute to regional exports through domestic value added. The paper emphasises the importance of regulatory alignment for reducing trade barriers and the role of funds under the EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans for investment in transport infrastructure within the region. It finds that the Central European Free Trade Agreement and Common Regional Market should focus on untapped potential, especially in the liberalisation of capital, services and movement for employment. Infrastructure issues, trade logistics and the tackling of technical barriers to trade should feature prominently on the policy agenda.
Topic:: Governance, Macroeconomics, Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and Western Balkans

675. Implementing the EU Nature Restoration Law: exploring pathways for member states

Author:: Heather Grabbe, Bas Heerma van Voss, Camille Mehlbaum, and Sjoerd van der Zwaag
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union Nature Restoration Law (NRL) entered into force in 2024. The NRL sets quantitative restoration targets aimed at improving natural habitats that are currently in poor condition, with substantial leeway for countries to choose implementation pathways that fit their priorities. This Working Paper examines three pathways: (1) evenly spreading restoration efforts across all ecosystems; (2) prioritising cost-efficiency; and (3) maximising carbon sequestration. Each approach yields vastly different outcomes. This paper provides insights into the trade-offs. For countries seeking to minimise costs in the short run, an 81 percent reduction in costs over the period 2025-2030 is possible compared to a baseline scenario of an even restoration of all ecosystems. Countries that aim to maximise carbon sequestration benefits can achieve a 54 percent increase in climate impact over the same period. However, the different pathways converge after 2040. Prioritising cost minimisation in the early years could lead to higher costs later if delays in investment in the more costly restoration projects allow habitats to continue to degrade. Maximising cost-efficient carbon sequestration is possible, allowing relatively low investment costs and high sequestration. Countries should adopt a holistic approach to pathway selection, considering the full spectrum of ecological and societal gains alongside climate mitigation. Land ownership is an important factor that shapes feasible and effective pathways. In countries such as Spain and Germany, where private entities own substantial shares of agricultural and forest lands, policies should incentivise private investment, including through norms, subsidies or pricing mechanisms. Countries with substantial public landholdings, such as the Netherlands, may find it easier to implement direct restoration projects. These structural differences will influence the cost and pace of restoration and also the design of policies and governance mechanisms to ensure compliance with NRL targets.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Decarbonization, Green Deal, Energy, and Carbon Sequestration
Political Geography:: Europe

676. European export finance needs a reboot

Author:: Conor McCaffrey and Niclas Poitiers
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Export credit agencies (ECAs) play an important role in international trade by providing derisking instruments that function as public assistance to companies engaging in international commerce. As the geopolitical environment has become more fraught, this support has become ever more important. In recent years, the role of ECAs has evolved from a purely commercial one to include the pursuit of strategic goals, such as fighting climate change, shaping trade relations with key partners and securing access to critical raw materials. However, the system of European export credit agencies is not well equipped to deal with these challenges. ECAs are national with a variety of models and not all European Union countries have one. There is little transparency on their operations, very limited steering at the EU level and, beyond a small pilot project in Ukraine, no EU-level funding for European public goods. Non-EU ECAs have increasingly used funding instruments not available to EU ones, partly because of competition from countries not subject to the OECD Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits and state aid constraints. This makes the lack of coordination not only a strategic oversight but a potential competitive disadvantage. For these reasons, we argue that reform of the European ECA sector is necessary. We advocate for improved transparency and EU-level steering to ensure European strategic objectives are met. More complex is the question of how European public goods could be adequately supported by ECAs. Several models are possible, with the most promising option being EU level funding for projects implemented by national ECAs coupled with some form of EU level oversight.
Topic:: Governance, Regulation, Exports, Macroeconomics, and Financial Literacy
Political Geography:: Europe

677. How can Europe’s nuclear deterrence trilemma be resolved?

Author:: Andrea Gilli and Francesco Nicoli
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The United States under President Donald Trump has adopted an ambiguous position on European security. Although no immediate risk of abandonment is apparent, European countries are rethinking their defence strategies in case the US declines to support them, or provides only partial support, in a crisis. This discussion is particularly sensitive in relation to nuclear weapons, the ultimate deterrent, for which European countries depend extensively on the United States. We argue that a possible future US withdrawal from European nuclear security will force European countries to face a policy trilemma. If they stick to the existing policy framework of no proliferation and no joint deterrence, they expose themselves to nuclear blackmail, should the US withdraw its external guarantee. If they want to protect themselves from nuclear blackmail, they must choose how to provide nuclear security: either collective nuclear security, which would compromise some national sovereignty, or independent provision by individual countries, leading to nuclear proliferation in Europe. Having established that uncontrolled proliferation is an inferior outcome to some form of joint deterrence, we identify four main alternatives: an extension of the Franco-British nuclear deterrent; an extension complemented by a jointly financed expansion of existing deterrence; the absorption of the French (and perhaps British) nuclear arsenals into a European arsenal; and the construction of a separate European submarine deterrent (with Europe using French or British technology or developing new technology). We also discuss briefly forms of non-nuclear deterrence, which however would likely be a complementary rather than a substitute for a nuclear deterrent. We compare these options using a set of parameters: strategic autonomy and credibility, changes to treaties (including non-proliferation), costs, capabilities and readiness. Our analysis shows that all options have advantages and disadvantages, but some are politically, financially and militarily more feasible.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Industrial Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, Macroeconomics, Deterrence, Transatlantic Relations, and Vulnerability
Political Geography:: Europe, North America, and United States of America

678. Using data as a production factor: policy ideas for a new EU data strategy

Author:: Bertin Martins
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: A major task for the 2024-2029 European Commission will be to reconcile and simplify the European Union’s range of data-market laws into a more coherent framework. At the heart of the approach should be the non-rival nature of data, meaning it can be used by many parties for many purposes at the same time. That creates the potential for economic efficiency gains from the re-use and aggregation of data. Exclusive private data control rights and high transaction costs may stand in the way of realising these gains. We define economic criteria against which existing data market regulations can be evaluated. These criteria lead to the following recommendations to improve existing EU data regulations: The EU general data protection regulation facilitates re-use of personal data. Machine-readable consent notices and real-time data transfers could reduce high transaction costs that prevent meaningful exercise of informed consent. The European Health Data Space contains an almost-ideal governance regime for health-data re-use and pooling that maximises incentives for data-driven innovation. This regime should be applied to other industrial data-space initiatives. The Data Act facilitates access and re-use of product data but exclusive licensing rights for data holders, monopolistic pricing of third-party data transfers and other anti-competitive measures reduce its impact. Widening its application to services data would make it a truly horizontal data-market regulation. The Digital Markets Act contains several obligations for platforms to grant users access to their own data. Widening access to networked data would facilitate competition between platforms and their users. Mutual instead of unilateral sharing of search-engine data would avoid fragmentation of the search-data pool. The Artificial Intelligence Act imposes unwarranted and costly restrictions on the re-use of copyright-related content data for AI model training data, reducing the innovative impact of AI. The text and data mining exception in the EU Copyright Directive could be broadened to address these new AI technology challenges. EU data market regulations exhibit a tension between exclusive private rights and the realisation of the wider societal value of data. Finding an acceptable balance may involve some redistribution of the efficiency gains between data users and the original data collectors.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Digital Economy, Microeconomics, Data, and Digital Markets Act (DMA)
Political Geography:: Europe

679. Prepare now: Europe must get ready for the coming long-term care surge

Author:: Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, David Pinkus, and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Demographic change and ageing populations in European Union countries will impact many aspects of the economy and have a direct effect on long-term care (LTC) systems. Demand for LTC already exceeds supply in many EU countries, leading to the ‘care gap’. This gap is expected to widen, threatening quality of life for the elderly, exacerbating gender disparities and imposing significant economic costs. The root causes of the gap include demographic shifts, inadequate public investment, workforce shortages and a heavy reliance on informal caregiving. Women stand to lose the most if no steps are taken to prepare LTC systems for the coming surge in demand because care, both formal and informal, is predominantly provided by women. The care gap can be reduced by either increasing the supply of care or by reducing the demand for care. We assess LTC reforms in five EU countries and explain how these can affect the care gap by influencing demand and supply. Governments should: Recognise LTC as a priority. Governments should increase public spending on LTC and make LTC a central policy priority linked to broader goals, including gender equality and economic growth. Expand funding mechanisms. Governments can introduce new means of financing, such as mandatory LTC insurance and pre-funding mechanisms. Most importantly, benefits should target those with the greatest needs, to promote equity and adequacy. Support the workforce more. The LTC sector should be made more attractive by raising wages, improving working conditions and expanding training programmes to attract and retain workers. Develop prevention strategies. EU funds could be directed to research into treatments targeting age-related diseases such as dementia. National governments could invest in public health campaigns and preventive care to reduce future demand. Use the newest technologies. EU countries should invest in robotics and assistive technologies to improve productivity and to reduce physical strain on caregivers.
Topic:: Economics, Health, Governance, European Union, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe

680. Not yet Trump-proof: an evaluation of the European Commission’s emerging policy platform

Author:: Heather Grabbe and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 01-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The economic strategy being defined by the 2024-2029 European Commission seems to follow the prescriptions on innovation and single market reform, and the expansive approach to industrial policy, set out by Mario Draghi in his September 2024 report on European Union competitiveness, with two important differences. First, the Commission stops short of calling for World Trade Organisation-prohibited subsidies – this is welcome. Second, the Commission proposes a new state aid framework for national industrial policy rather than expansion of EU-level public investment funding. This runs the risk of weakening the single market and harming competition, with the unintended consequence of protecting incumbents and inhibiting structural change. In terms of specific policies, on defence, the Commission is right to face up to the challenge of defining an EU procurement mechanism that offers sufficient speed and cost advantages to justify large-scale funding. On economic security and international partnerships, the Commission is right to take a broader approach than a foreign economic policy focused only on supply chains. What is lacking is a much greater commitment to providing support for climate mitigation in developing countries. The second Trump presidency creates risks for the Commission strategy. President Trump has gone further than expected in threatening territorial expansion and with the speed, aggression and disregard for the rule of law with which he has started to implement his policies. These factors will complicate the EU-United States relationship. The best defence against both Trump and the competitive and security threats posed by China is to accelerate policies that address the EU’s structural weaknesses: raising productivity growth, defence capacity and economic security. Economic security, in turn, requires more resilient trade relationships, less financial dependence on the US and an improved standing with emerging market and developing economies. The EU should also seize the opportunity offered by the shift in US policy from subsidies to deregulation. While the EU should not race Trump to the bottom on environmental or financial deregulation, it should rapidly improve its own regulatory framework while building on its core strengths: human capital and the rule of law. Unlike tariff wars or discriminatory subsidies, a competition to provide a good business environment is not a zero-sum game.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Industrial Policy, Budget, European Union, Digital Economy, Trade Policy, Donald Trump, Sustainability, European Commission, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

681. Upgrading Europe's electricity grid is about more than just money

Author:: Conall Heussaff and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Electricity network investment is essential for the energy transition, with annual investments of tens of billions of euros required across Europe. Network companies are already investing such amounts and delivering efficient grid investments requires more than additional money. Assessing infrastructure needs is the first step in grid investment. At local, national and European Union levels, network development planning is determined by policy choices and can greatly affect the efficiency of investments. Coordinated grid planning is crucial to set the right incentives for the efficient development of the European electricity system. An EU independent system operator could assume responsibility for network planning by providing regular, independent assessment of efficient network investment needs from a holistic European perspective. Although significant capital expenditure is undoubtedly necessary, network regulation should encourage network companies to invest in the most-efficient solutions. Current regulatory approaches may favour traditional capital expenditure, leading to system inefficiencies and higher-than-necessary consumer costs. Cross-border electricity transmission infrastructure is critical to integrate renewables into the electricity system at scale and reduce costs for European consumers. But such projects are often not built or are delayed because those that decide on and pay for the infrastructure are not necessarily those that benefit from it. A European fund could smooth negotiations between parties and accelerate the physical interconnection of the European electricity system. Fairly recovering the costs of grid investments from consumers is vital to maintain public support for the energy transition. National funds could smooth out cost impacts over time, keeping electricity affordable throughout the energy transition.
Topic:: Climate Change, Electricity, Decarbonization, and Energy Security
Political Geography:: Europe

682. How to improve the European Union’s sustainable finance framework

Author:: Silvia Merler
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union has sought to steer corporate behaviour to support its climate goals by adopting a large body of rules on sustainable investment, sustainability disclosures and sustainability labelling of financial products, underpinned by a taxonomy of activities considered sustainable. It is unclear, however, if this effort has had significant results. Examination of financial market data and metrics of investment flows towards green and sustainable investment shows up several weaknesses – both contingent and structural – in the EU sustainable finance framework, which could limit its effectiveness in aligning capital flows with climate objectives. The Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) is aimed at making the sustainability content of financial products more transparent but rests on a concept of ‘sustainable investment’ that is too broad and loosely defined. Meanwhile, the EU Taxonomy Regulation has not yet become established as the reference framework for corporate bond issuance or sustainable investing. The EU also lacks a coherent framework for transition finance – or investment that is not yet classified as sustainable but that represents progress to greater sustainability – despite this being the market segment to which the largest volumes of investment will need to flow in the short to medium run. Five adjustments would make the EU sustainable finance framework more effective at delivering the desired alignment of incentives. First, the taxonomy framework should be completed and clarified. Second, the SFDR definition of sustainable investment should be toughened. Third, the neutrality of the framework across capital market instruments, in particular debt versus equity, should be ensured. Fourth, a dedicated framework for transition finance should be developed. Finally, formal sustainable and transition labels for financial products should be introduced. This approach would make the sustainable finance framework more easily applicable to all kind of companies and all types of capital market instruments, regardless of whether they limit the use of proceeds, and it would be naturally extendable into a framework for transition finance and into a transparent sustainability labelling regime for financial products.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Europe

683. The European Union’s new fiscal framework: a good start, but challenges loom

Author:: Nicolas Boivin and Zsolt Darvas
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union’s fiscal framework, updated in April 2024, aims to strengthen fiscal sustainability and foster public investment. It requires countries to maintain or gradually reduce their public debts to no more than 60 percent of GDP, and ensures compliance with a 3 percent of GDP deficit limit and some safeguards. EU countries must submit Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plans (MTFSPs) showing how they intend to comply. MTFSPs for most EU countries have now been approved by the European Commission, on the basis that the fiscal paths in the plans are credible and increased public investment is foreseen even amid fiscal consolidation. However, macroeconomic assumptions in MTFSPs frequently deviate from the Commission’s guidance, often reflecting optimistic growth projections. Overly optimistic assumptions risk deviations from approved fiscal paths, while disagreements about macro projections, which are central to debt sustainability analysis, could undermine the framework’s credibility and hinder implementation at a later stage. Several MTFSPs assume higher stock-flow adjustments (SFAs) than included in the Commission’s prior guidance, indicating that these countries must implement somewhat larger fiscal adjustments. Historical data shows large positive SFAs for many countries, suggesting that multi-year-ahead SFA projections should be extended to all countries, based on a transparent methodology. The plans indicate that greater planned fiscal adjustments tend to be associated with deeper cuts to public investment. The overall increase in public investment ratios remains below 0.2 percent of GDP according to the plans and Commission and OECD forecasts. While the EU’s major investment gaps should primarily be addressed through private investment, public investment must also play a role. Innovative approaches, such as a new EU fund financed by common borrowing, are essential to boost investment in the EU. The updated fiscal framework’s long-term success depends on achieving consensus on macroeconomic assumptions, including the standardisation of methods to assess the growth impacts of reforms, while refining SFA methodologies and finding new ways to foster investment. Strengthening these elements will make the framework more credible and effective, enabling it to better guide fiscal policy and support sustainable growth.
Topic:: Governance, European Union, Macroeconomics, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

684. Europe’s energy information problem

Author:: Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Comprehensive information on energy-related topics, such as take-up of heat pumps, industrial natural gas consumption and prices, and battery connections to the electricity grid, is either not available in Europe in a timely manner, or not available at the level of granularity, reliability and consistency needed for informed decision-making. Certain information is simply not collected, while other information is collected but is not comparable or consistent across Europe, or is hard to access. European policy targets, such as greenhouse-gas emission reduction pathways, are evaluated using models for which input assumptions and parameters are not public knowledge. It should be a European Union priority to improve this situation. Doing so will enable better decision-making by policymakers and companies. This is especially relevant when Europe faces the triple challenge of decarbonisation, ensuring security of energy supply and growing its internationally competitive energy-consuming industries. The EU status quo is that good energy information is provided by a mix of institutions, agencies, national bodies, industrial associations and non-governmental organisations, but with substantial room for improvement. Lessons can be learned from the United States Energy Information Administration and the European Environment Agency, which was established to better coordinate climate data. Improving energy information will involve difficult political decisions. A process should be started to evaluate the options and to measure the continued cost of inaction.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Institutions, Green Deal, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

685. Europeans still want climate action, but don't trust governments to deliver

Author:: Jan Eichhorn and Heather Grabbe
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The vast majority of Europeans continues to support action to combat climate change, but many are losing faith in governments to deliver a transition that is effective and fair. Based on a large-scale questionnaire answered by nearly 8000 people in five EU countries in 2024, with a comparison to responses from 2020, we find that Europeans continue to worry about climate change and want effective action to combat it, even though the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly increased their concerns about economic and physical insecurity. Scepticism about the causes of climate change has risen a bit, and concern about adapting to its impact has grown. People across all income groups, particularly in France, Germany, Italy and Sweden, feel negative about the outlook for their economic future and their governments’ ability to improve it. People who feel politically disaffected think that decisionmakers are not taking their views and interests into account when making economic and climate policies. Some people are now shifting their attention away from action against the climate crisis towards adaptation, but this does not mean they are less concerned about climate change. Instead, for some people, it is an expression of their disillusionment with state institutions – and this feeling is present among supporters of parties across the political spectrum. Worry about climate change is equally spread across all socio-economic groups. Closer examination of attitudes in Germany, using evidence from focus groups, which we also discuss in this Policy Brief, reinforces the finding of increasing scepticism about the German government’s ability to manage the climate crisis. If political leaders want the public to continue to support climate policies, they must engage proactively now to avoid even greater loss of confidence in government. If governments go soft on efforts to combat the climate crisis now or delay action, they will not meet voters’ demand for an effective and just transition. Moreover, hesitation and delay would boost populist and far-right actors’ efforts to sow doubt about the causes of climate change and whether policies will be effective.
Topic:: Climate Change, Elections, Populism, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

686. Will China’s economy follow the same path as Japan’s?

Author:: Alicia Garcia-Herrero and Jianwei Xu
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Since the bursting of China’s real-estate bubble in mid-2021, there has been a growing concern that the Chinese economy could end up like that of Japan in the early 1990s. Some structural patterns are strikingly similar: low private consumption over a long period, especially when compared to the rest of the world, and an excessively high savings ratio, though China’s imbalances now are even larger that Japan’s were then. Initial policy responses to the bursting of their respective bubbles have also been similar. Both China now and Japan then were initially hesitant to ease monetary and fiscal policies, and opted to expand manufacturing, with an eye on external demand, supported by more research and development expenditure. In both cases, the outcomes were stubborn trade surpluses and a mercantilist attitude to their growth problems, leading to the United States taking protectionist measures. China also seems to be following Japan’s offshoring of production to mitigate the impact of protectionism. The main difference, though, is that China now is a poorer country than Japan was then, with still more convergence opportunities ahead. China is also a much bigger military and geopolitical contender than Japan ever was. China’s geopolitical weight is behind the US technological containment of China, but also gives China more room for manoeuvre globally, especially in the Global South. It remains unclear – though globally significant – whether China will be able to deviate from the path followed by Japan in the 1980s and 1990s.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, Economic Growth, Innovation, and Real Estate
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

687. Ukraine: European democracy’s affordable arsenal

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: European NATO members must raise defence spending by enough to deter through strength an irredentist Russia. This must be done possibly without the United States and when ageing populations demand higher social spending. Raising defence spending to sufficient levels could result in a doubling of current primary deficits to just over 3 percent of GDP on average. This seems likely to be a fiscally unattainable goal for this group of countries. European NATO members, in addition to their quantitative defence spending challenge, face the qualitative challenge of significantly increasing their outlays on new modern military equipment, especially drones, to credibly deter Russia. This will require all European NATO members to significantly increase investments in their domestic and regional military-industrial capacities. While its armed forces are physically defending their country against Russia’s onslaught, Ukraine is transforming gradually into a very large, advanced and cost-competitive military equipment and weapons producer. Through the so-called ‘Danish Model’, individual European Union and NATO members are already actively funding Ukrainian defence production, helping it to help itself against Russia. Much more focus should be put on Ukraine’s ability, if fully integrated with the military-industrial sector in the rest of Europe, to produce much of the modern military equipment wanted by itself and the rest of Europe. This Policy Brief shows how Ukraine already produces drones and modern howitzers, arguably the two most important weapons in defensive warfare today, at prices well below those achieved by other Western military suppliers. The EU, with a fully integrated and funded Ukrainian military-industrial sector, will have the capacity to produce much of the cost-competitive military equipment it will need in future, while continuing to fund its welfare systems. To facilitate this development, the EU must in all defence and military-related matters begin treating Ukraine immediately as a full EU member.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Transatlantic Relations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

688. Reinforcing EU merger control against the risks of acquisitions by big tech

Author:: Mario Mariniello
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Since 2000, online platforms that are now within the scope of the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), have bought nearly 700 small, promising companies worldwide. However, only 19 of their attempted acquisitions were notified to the European Commission, the authority exercising merger control over deals with a substantive EU connection. In the other cases, the acquired target’s turnover did not meet the conditions for merger notification. These acquisitions have happened in the context of digital markets becoming increasingly concentrated, leading to speculation that concentration levels might have been lower had some of those acquisitions not taken place. The harm that the concentration of market power in a handful of American digital companies may cause is magnified by the current position of the United States, which aims to shield platforms from regulatory enforcement. Acquisitions of small companies may have pro- or anti-competitive effects. Established market players may buy startups to become more competitive or to supply a higher quality product or service, ultimately benefitting final users. Mergers may also incentivise innovation and attract venture capital. However, incumbents might also acquire small companies with strategic, anti-competitive objectives. They might want to stop challengers to their market power from emerging in the future. Or they might acquire small companies to prevent competitors from relying on the target’s supply to complement their competing products. Moreover, competition authorities struggle to make accurate predictions about the evolution of competitive dynamics in new and complex markets, such as digital markets. Authorities thus may be unable to take the correct decision, even if the merger is notified. Responding to these issues hinges on amending the DMA. The European Commission should be empowered to scrutinise any acquisition performed by the large platforms within the DMA scope (currently, the DMA requires these platforms to inform the Commission of any intended concentration, but envisages no other action). Moreover, the burden of proving that the merger is not harmful should be shifted to the large platforms. This would leverage market players’ knowledge to help increase the accuracy of merger decisions in a highly dynamic and uncertain environment.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Microeconomics, Big Tech, European Commission, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

689. How DeepSeek has changed artificial intelligence and what it means for Europe

Author:: Bertin Martens
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: By mid-2024, artificial intelligence large language models (LLMs) were running into diminishing returns to scale in training data and computational capacity. LLM training began to shift away from costly pre-training to cheaper fine-tuning and allowing LLMs to ‘reason’ for longer before replying to questions. Fine-tuning uses chain-of-thought (CoT) training data that includes questions and the logical steps to reach correct answers. This increases the efficiency of learning for smaller AI models, such as DeepSeek. CoT data can be extracted from large ‘teacher’ LLMs to train small ‘student’ models. These changes shift the cost structure of AI models from high pre-training costs to lower fine-tuning costs for model developers and more inference costs for users. While smaller models are cheaper to use, a positive AI demand effect is likely to exceed the negative price effect. Price competition between models will increase, resulting in tighter margins for AI firms. Specialised models can still fetch premium prices. Cheaper LLMs are an opportunity for European Union companies to catch up in building smaller AI models and applications on top of LLMs. Increased demand for AI services will require more investment in computing infrastructure, including in the EU. Investing in large LLMs and the corresponding hyperscale infrastructure is riskier, especially as price competition between models increases. Knowledge extraction between AI models puts pressure on model developers to protect their investments against free-riding by others. It also creates a dilemma for policymakers: should they favour free-riding to promote competition and innovation, or should they clamp down and reinforce monopoly rents to stimulate investment in AI models? Past policy will not be an appropriate response in a world that offers vastly expanded opportunities for knowledge pooling and innovation at lower cost.
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Policy, Microeconomics, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, Large Language Models (LLMs), and DeepSeek
Political Geography:: Europe

690. The demographic divide: inequalities in ageing across the European Union

Author:: David Pinkus and Nina Ruer
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The European Union is projected to enter a period of population decline after 2026, with implications for economic development and labour markets, though these will vary because of different trends in different EU countries. Between 2023 and 2050, Eastern and Southern EU countries will face the sharpest declines because of both natural population decrease and limited net inward migration. In contrast, Northern and Western countries could see population growth driven by higher migration. By 2050, working-age populations are projected to decline in 22 out of 27 EU countries, while the share of those aged 85+ in the EU as whole will more than double. This shift will strain healthcare, pension and long-term care systems across the continent. Eastern and Southern EU countries will face more severe ageing and workforce shrinkages, undermining their competitiveness and potentially contributing to increasing inequality. Western and Northern countries will also age, but slower natural population decline and larger migration inflows will give them more time to adjust. However, regional disparities within countries will likely widen as migrants concentrate in urban areas, leaving rural regions even more vulnerable to depopulation. Policies must be adapted to these different demographic trends. Eastern EU countries should focus on retaining talent, attracting migrants in sectors with labour shortages and increasing labour-force participation by women and older workers. Southern countries should strengthen family-friendly and youth-employment policies, while improving migrant integration and regional infrastructure. Western and Northern countries must prioritise migrant integration, rural development and gradual labour-market reforms for ageing populations. A coordinated EU plan for these different trends would support EU countries in addressing the challenges they will face. Integration of migrants into labour markets and societies will be especially important, though relying on sustained high migration may not be a viable long-term solution and will not be a substitute for maximising the participation of residents in labour markets.
Topic:: Demographics, European Union, Inequality, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe

691. Making the best of the new EU Social Climate Fund

Author:: Eva Jüngling, Giovanni Sgaravatti, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The slow pace of decarbonisation of buildings and transportation threatens the European Union’s goal of reducing emissions by 55 percent by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2050. To address this, a new emissions trading system, ETS2, is being introduced to put a carbon price on fuels used in buildings and road transport. However, the resulting cost increases risk a disproportionate impact on vulnerable households and small and medium sized enterprises. The European Union has created the Social Climate Fund (SCF) to address these distributional challenges. This instrument redistributes a portion of auction revenues generated by the ETS2 among EU countries, in order to protect the most vulnerable. A much larger share of ETS2 revenues will flow directly to national governments, offering significant opportunities for social measures and investments in the green transition. The use of those revenues will dictate how successful EU countries are in managing the transition and protecting households, particularly in higher-income member states, which will receive relatively smaller shares of SCF funding. ETS2 is an essential part of the EU climate policy toolkit. Governments should employ good practices, as identified by the European Commission, to tackle emissions from buildings and transport and to gradually phase out income support, in line with the achievement of investment targets and milestones. Higher-income EU countries should develop additional targeted financing levers to protect the vulnerable and to introduce extra enablers to encourage private investment. Proper sequencing, outreach and communication will be essential to ensure the uptake of measures and public support for policy instruments. Cross-country learning should be leveraged, including through the creation of a European policy registry that will help countries compare their approaches and potentially amend their SCF spending plans on the basis of learning from policies that been successful elsewhere.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Welfare, Transportation, Carbon Emissions, Decarbonization, and Protection
Political Geography:: Europe

692. The governance and funding of European rearmament

Author:: Guntram B. Wolff, Armin Steinbach, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Europe faces a grave security threat. Gaps in European military equipment are substantial compared to Russia’s military build-up. The European defence market is fragmented and weakened by home bias in procurement, low order numbers and technological gaps. These problems reflect the combination of past reliance on the United States and Europe’s nationally-based defence governance. With the US now retreating from its role of European guardian, greater cooperation is essential to close technological gaps and reduce rearmament costs. Unless procurement is pooled and fragmentation reduced, additional demand for defence goods will mainly drive up prices. Better-integrated defence markets would both increase competition and facilitate entry of new defence technology firms. The combination of integrated markets and scaled-up procurement could lead to a halving of unit costs. European Union measures including the European Defence Fund, the Act in Support of Ammunition Production, the European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act and ReArm Europe represent progress towards strengthening the supply of military goods but the incentives offered are too small to address the home bias in procurement or to coordinate the provision of ‘strategic enablers’ such as military satellites. To go further, the EU and its European allies have two options. First, the role of the European Defence Agency could be broadened, possibly in combination with a new lending instrument similar to the EU’s 2020-22 SURE programme. Second, a European Defence Mechanism (EDM) could be created: an institution similar to the European Stability Mechanism, based on an intergovernmental treaty. The EDM would undertake joint procurement and plan for the provision of strategic enablers in specified areas, with a capacity to fund these roles. It could own strategic enablers and charge usage fees to EDM members, reducing the budgetary impact of rearmament. EDM membership would entail prohibition of both state aid and procurement preferences that benefit national defence contractors at the expense of contractors from other EDM members. Of the two options, the second is preferable, as it would (1) create a defence industry single market among EDM members, (2) create a financing vehicle that might make large-scale projects fiscally feasible, and (3) include non-EU democracies such as the United Kingdom on an equal footing, while also giving an opt-out to EU countries that lack the political appetite for more defence integration, or that have national constitutional constraints.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Governance, Geopolitics, Weapons, Macroeconomics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and United States of America

693. Who should be charged? Principles for fair allocation of electricity system costs

Author:: Conall Heussaff, Eva Jüngling, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:: 04-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: The high costs in the European Union of supplying electricity can only be structurally reduced through decarbonisation and deeper European electricity system integration. In the short-term, policymakers have few choices. They can redistribute system costs by shifting components from one consumer to another. Another immediate distributional option would be to reduce energy taxation, implicitly shifting costs to the taxpayer. Meanwhile, decision-making processes that translates electricity system costs into final consumer prices are fragmented. Rules on the short-term production, transmission and consumption of electricity are determined at EU level. National regulators and governments determine how the fixed costs of the system are recovered from consumers, while national policymakers also set energy taxes. This Policy Brief sets out options for shifting the fixed costs of the electricity system between consumers, for changing energy taxation to reduce prices and for evaluating systemic trade-offs between system cost and other characteristics, such as sustainability and reliability. We also estimate the quantitative effects of shifting costs between consumers and reducing taxes on electricity. We set out four principles for pricing electricity fairly. Policy interventions in the electricity system should not seek to achieve broader economic objectives at the expense of energy-policy goals. Consumer prices should incentivise efficient system operation. Carbon emissions should be priced in. The fixed costs of the electricity system should be primarily recovered from inelastic consumption. European policymakers should develop transparent analytical tools to assess the distributional effects of electricity-policy interventions. Lessons should be learned from the energy crisis, during which EU and national policies attempted to shield consumers from price impacts, and these lessons should form the basis of ongoing efforts to reduce prices. EU guidelines for electricity cost recovery should be established, following fundamental economic principles, and could form a policy toolbox for national governments to reduce energy prices. Finally, the long-term strategic goal of deeper physical and institutional integration of the European electricity should be pursued to structurally reduce electricity prices.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Electricity, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe

694. Building coalitions for climate transition and nature restoration

Author:: Jean Pisani-Ferry, Beatrice di Mauro, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Global climate and biodiversity outcomes will largely be determined in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). We propose a four-pillar strategy to support climate and nature preservation in line with the economic interests of both developing and advanced countries. This would move beyond voluntary pledges to embed climate and nature objectives into the structures of trade, finance and industrial policy, creating a self-reinforcing system of cooperation and reducing the net costs of the green transition. Under Pillar 1, a coalition of advanced and developing countries would link tiered carbon pricing with a common carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Pillar 2 would create a climate-finance coalition to decarbonise the power sectors of developing countries. Pillar 3 would involve partnerships to develop clean energy-intensive industrial production stages in developing economies with rich renewables endowments; these would feed into the supply chains of the European Union and other energy-importing advanced economies. Pillar 4 would redesign markets to create scalable and credible mechanisms to fund carbon removals. Technology-based removals can be incentivised through the introduction of clean-up certificates into the EU emissions trading system, while nature-based removals would require improved market design centred on a new asset class: nature shares. The four pillars reinforce each other. A multi-country CBAM and carbon pricing coalition (Pillar 1) would reduce the cost of financing power sector decarbonisation (Pillar 2). Linking EMDE membership of the CBAM and carbon-pricing coalition to financial support for the decarbonisation of power sectors would also make it more attractive for EMDEs to adopt carbon prices. Decarbonisation of power sectors (Pillar 2) would be a precondition for developing clean, highly energy-intensive industry in renewables-rich EMDEs (Pillar 3). The Pillar 1 coalition should include the EU, China and as many other countries as possible. Advanced countries and China could underpin the Pillar 2 financier coalition. Pillar 3 would involve the EU and potentially other energy-poor advanced countries, along with EMDEs that are richly endowed with renewables. Pillar 4 would include the main custodians of the planet’s natural capital. Enabling these coalitions will require EU leadership.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, Trade, Sustainability, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe

695. Reconciling the European Union’s clean industrialisation goals with those of the Global South

Author:: Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Clean industrialisation is a political and economic priority for the European Union. For it to work, affordable clean energy is needed. However, producing this energy in Europe is constrained by limited renewable energy endowments (sunshine and wind) and land availability, while the transportation costs for imported clean energy (in the form of electricity or hydrogen) are much higher than for fossil fuels. An alternative way to fuel Europe’s clean industrial sector would to import energy-intensive primary tradeable products such as ammonia, methanol and reduced iron. We estimate that more than ten percent of total future EU clean energy demand will be met by such products. Public policy in Europe should aim to facilitate trade in energy-intensive intermediate inputs, which are cheaper to import than energy directly. Imports of these inputs could boost the competitiveness of downstream stages in the energy-intensive value chain (such as steel production). By lowering overall energy demand and thus electricity prices, such imports would also raise EU competitiveness more broadly. In many cases, they would replace imports of less energy-intensive commodities such as iron ore, therefore not adding to Europe’s overall import dependency. The direct economic impact in terms of jobs and value added that would be offshored is not substantial. The international benefit of such a strategy would be that it would embed third countries – especially emerging and developing economies – into clean industrial value chains. Stable European demand can help such countries develop export-driven, clean industrial strategies. Politically, this could be an important incentive that could offset the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism. Governments should therefore not use taxpayer money to fight the relocation of energy-intensive and tradeable primary products, beyond some minimum threshold that is desirable for economic security and innovation reasons. Meanwhile, ongoing negotiations with third countries to establish Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships should put trade in energy-intensive clean products at the core of new international clean supply chains.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, European Union, Global South, Industrialization, Decarbonization, Energy, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:: Europe

696. The time is right to make a European Union-India trade deal happen

Author:: Ignacio Garcia Bercero and André Sapir
Publication Date:: 07-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: Nearly 20 years have passed since the EU and India started negotiations on a bilateral trade and investment agreement. After seven years of intense negotiations, the process stalled in 2014, primarily because of the failure of the respective political leaders to make difficult choices. Talks restarted in 2022 and now offer a reasonable chance of delivering a bilateral free-trade agreement “within the course of the year”, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared in February 2025. The EU and India both rank among the world’s five largest economies in terms of GDP. Yet much separates the two economically. India’s GDP per capita is much lower than the EU’s, and its level of trade and investment protection is much higher than that of the EU or even its middle-income peers. However, India has recently enjoyed faster growth than any other large economy, including China. The EU and India are also being brought closer by the global geopolitical situation and their common pursuit of strategic autonomy and economic security. The two sides should learn the lessons from past failure and reach an ambitious agreement in areas that previously proved difficult, such as goods tariffs and services, and in new areas, such as climate protection, that could again derail the revived negotiation if not managed well. A deal by the end of 2025 will have economic benefits and will also reinforce the broader economic and political links between the EU and India at a time when world affairs are under severe strain. An ambitious agreement could also help reconstruct a rules-based global order for the new multipolar world. This is particularly important for the multilateral trade and climate regimes, where converging EU and Indian positions could have a major influence on the redesign of international institutions and rules.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Governance, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, South Asia, and India

697. Evolving Partnerships: U.S. Alliances and the Pacific Islands

Author:: Grace Price
Publication Date:: 02-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: Pacific Island countries (PICs) have long attracted development and security assistance from the region’s traditional partner states—the United States, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. However, the Pacific has received renewed attention from them as China actively vies for influence. Despite increased engagement, the PICs are still turning to China in pursuit of their development and security needs. This report will map out efforts the United States, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand are taking to increase influence, obstacles that are hindering effective cooperation in the Pacific, and recommendations for improving their collective engagement with the PICs.
Topic:: Security, Development, Partnerships, and Alliance
Political Geography:: North America, United States of America, and Pacific Islands

698. Charting a Path in the Uncharted Domain

Author:: Jennifer Hong Whetsell
Publication Date:: 12-2025
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:: The Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea) is rising as a prominent player in the space domain. The size of its space program makes its current position as an emerging space power even more impressive and promising. The United States, one of South Korea's closest political and defense allies, and South Korea share a considerable history in space cooperation since the late 1980s. Despite the long history of collaboration between the United States and South Korea, fundamental differences have slowed their progress toward a deeper and more meaningful cooperation in this domain. As space becomes an integral aspect of national security and a coveted frontier for scientific endeavor and exploration, the two capitals have much to gain through enhanced cooperation. “Charting a Path in the Uncharted Domain” examines the landscape of South Korea’s space ecosystem and provides a broad overview of its accomplishments and challenges in the space domain. It then highlights significant milestones of space cooperation between Washington and Seoul and analyzes the cooperative landscape, noting areas of differences and opportunities for enhanced cooperation. The paper then presents recommendations for U.S. and ROK policymakers to help overcome those barriers and strengthen their cooperation in the space domain.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Space
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

699. Terrorism and Immigration: 50 Years of Foreign-Born Terrorism on US Soil, 1975–2024

Author:: Alex Nowrasteh
Publication Date:: 03-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Terrorism is a hazard to human life and material prosperity that should be addressed in a sensible manner whereby the benefits of government actions taken to contain it outweigh the costs. Whether policies are sensible depends on the risks that terrorism poses, the harms that terrorism inflicts, and the costs of anti-terrorism policies. This risk analysis of foreign-born terrorism is a crucial step in evaluating anti-terrorism policies related to immigration.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, and Immigration
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

700. Rethinking Social Security from a Global Perspective: What Congress Can Learn from the Experiences of Canada, Germany, New Zealand, and Sweden

Author:: Romina Boccia and Ivane Nachkebia
Publication Date:: 06-2025
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Social Security is projected to reach technical insolvency by 2033, threatening retirees with automatic 23 percent benefit cuts as the program will be unable to pay full benefits on time. The program’s looming trust-fund insolvency creates a legislative forcing mechanism and thus presents an opportunity to reimagine how Social Security could work. Policymakers should consider fundamentally rethinking the program’s structure and transform it into a system that ensures seniors are protected from poverty when they can no longer work, while also freeing up resources for younger workers to save more on their own. With Social Security running large and rising cash-flow deficits since 2010, and given a political desire to protect most current retirees from being affected by benefit reductions, Congress should act now to stabilize the system—not procrastinate any longer, which only ensures that inevitable changes will be more drastic and economically harmful. The longer Congress waits, the more people will be locked into the current unsustainable system, and the higher the burden will be on younger generations to finance it.
Topic:: Poverty, Reform, Fiscal Policy, Social Security, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Canada, Germany, Sweden, and New Zealand

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS