Political Geography: - CIAO Search Results

57301. Macedonia: Gearing up for Presidential Elections

Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 31 October and 14 November 1999, Macedonian citizens will go to the polls to elect a successor to 82-year-old President Kiro Gligorov, who is stepping down after two terms in office.
Topic:: Government, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Macedonia

57302. Transforming Serbia: the Key to Long Term Stability

Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The NATO intervention in Serbia and the indictment of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia have created openings within Serbian society and exposed cleavages within the regime that should be rapidly exploited to hasten Milosevic's departure and bring about genuine political change. The loss of Kosovo, the destruction resulting from the bombing, and the refusal of the international community to rebuild Serbia until Milosevic is out of power have occasioned widespread despair among Serbs who have come to view their country's future under its present leadership as a dead end.
Topic:: NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

57303. Who's Who in Kosovo

Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: This paper offers a brief guide to the leading indigenous political organisations and personalities in Kosovo/Kosova. The authority of the international civil and military presence in Kosovo rests on UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. Under international law no other authority enjoys any legitimacy until the UN administration grants it.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations

57304. Montenegro Briefing: Calm Before the Storm

Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Just under a year ago a nervous Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic warned the world that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was preparing to trigger a new Balkan war by launching a campaign of violence against the tiny republic of Montenegro. Djukanovic was right about Milosevic's intent, but wrong about the target. In March of this year, the dictator struck against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo and unleashed the barbarous Operation Horseshoe.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, and War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, Albania, and Montenegro

57305. Preventing Minority Return in Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Anatomy of Hate and Fear

Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The 1999 action plan of the Reconstruction and Return Task Force (RRTF) represents the most determined effort yet to implement a policy of mass minority return in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the signs at mid-season are that the results for 1999 will once again be disappointing.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

57306. Rule Over Law: Obstacles to the Development of an Independent Judiciary in BIH

Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: ICG, with the support of the European Commission, has established a project to promote justice in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With the assistance of 8 partner organisations based all over BiH, ICG will monitor individual cases and general trends to highlight and promote the development of a judicial system in BiH up to the standards of a modern, European judiciary. This first, introductory report examines the factors preventing the development of an independent judiciary, and outlines steps necessary to promote judicial independence.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

57307. Republika Srpska in The Post-Kosovo Era: Collateral Damage and Transformation

Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war's collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

57308. Back To The Future: Milosevic Prepares for Life After Kosovo

Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 28 June 1989, Slobodan Milosevic stood on the site of the ancient Serb battleground of Kosovo Polje and delivered the speech that was to propel him to prominence and the leadership of. Ten years on, Milosevic remains firmly entrenched in power. He has survived three Balkan wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, economic sanctions, 78 days of NATO air strikes, and an indictment on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, and Croatia

57309. The New Kosovo Protectorate

Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The ICG Balkans Report N°66, "Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia", of 17 May 1999 looked at how experience in Bosnia could be useful in Kosovo, and also at the extent to which the Rambouillet agreement of 23 February 1999 resembled the Dayton agreement of 21 November 1995.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

57310. Macedonia: Towards Destabilisation? The Kosovo crisis takes its toll on Macedonia

Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Macedonia

57311. Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia

Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: After almost three and a half years working in Bosnia to implement the Dayton Peace Agreement, the international community will soon face the prospect of establishing a presence in Kosovo. The model proposed at Rambouillet was very similar to that set up at Dayton, but the situation now is very different. This report examines the international effort in Bosnia to see whether lessons can be drawn for Kosovo and other possible future international administrations.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo

57312. Milosevic's Aims in War and Diplomacy

Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The limits of the West's resolve to enforce a solution to the crisis in the Balkans were freshly exposed last week at a press briefing by U.S. President Bill Clinton. Speaking to reporters on 6 May 1999, Clinton admitted that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic might well survive the current crisis and remain in power in Belgrade as long as he accepted the West's terms for a settlement in Kosovo and permitted refugees to return home. He also made clear that a NATO invasion of Yugoslavia from the north, the one option open to the West that would facilitate the forcible removal of the Milosevic regime and with it the greatest single source of instability in the Balkans, was something "our (NATO's) goals never entailed".
Topic:: International Relations, NATO, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, and War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

57313. Why Will No One Invest In Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The donor countries hoped the governments of Bosnia and Herzegovina would use the promised $ 5.1 Billion post-war reconstruction aid to undertake the structural changes necessary to transition from communism to capitalism. As donor-aid diminished, private investment would replace it, stimulated by structural reforms. Unfortunately, this has not been the case. Indeed, interviews with Bosnian and foreign businessmen show a common reluctance to invest in BiH.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

57314. War in The Balkans: Consequences of the Kosovo Conflict and Future Options for Kosovo and the Region

Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: NATO's strategy in the war with Yugoslavia over Kosovo isn't working. As the Alliance's bombing campaign enters its fourth week, it is Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who is still winning the political game.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Politics, and War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

57315. Republika Srpska - Poplasen, Brcko and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out?

Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).
Topic:: International Relations, Security, NATO, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

57316. Macedonia Update: Challenges and Choices for the New Government

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The new Macedonian government marked its first hundred days in office in early March. Formed by the Macedonian Internal Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) after the last parliamentary elections in October and November 1998, the government is headed by VMRO- DPMNE Chairman Ljubco Georgievski and has a comfortable majority of 73 out of 120 seats in the current parliament.
Topic:: Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

57317. Unifying The Kosovar Factions: The Way Forward

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Kosovo peace talks, held at Rambouillet (France) under the auspices of the sixnation Contact Group, have been suspended until 15 March 1999 after a provisional agreement was reached on granting substantial autonomy for Kosovo. However, neither the Kosovo Albanians nor Serbian delegates have yet signed the draft peace accord, which calls for a NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, and in which the "final status" issue has been deliberately fudged. The immense complexities of the Kosovo question were dramatically illustrated at Rambouillet by the last-minute refusal of the Albanian delegation to sign the accord, due to pressure from a hardline faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which refused to attend the talks.
Topic:: International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

57318. Kosovo: The Road To Peace Critical Implementation Issues And a "Who's Who" of Key Players

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: While last spring saw conflict erupt in Kosovo's central Drenica region when Serbian security forces attacked and killed residents of the villages of Prekaz and Likoshan, this spring brings the possibility of peace. The proposed deployment of a 28,000-strong international force for Kosovo will dramatically and immediately halt the sporadic low-intensity battles between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanian rebels that have displaced 300,000 people. This peace will allow refugees to return to their homes, and provide the day-to-day sense of security on the ground that will enable Kosovo's transition to self-government.
Topic:: International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

57319. Sidelining Slobodan: Getting rid of Europe's last dictator

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: With just over two years to run before the end of his term as Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic remains entrenched in power in Belgrade. The Yugoslav constitution currently prevents the President from running for re-election in 2001, but while Milosevic may leave the presidency he shows no sign of forfeiting control and is in the process of purging both the army and secret police of all opposition. He also retains some residual influence over such cultural institutions as the Orthodox Church. Individuals who oppose his views and who are potential political opponents are invariably intimidated, often through brute force. Political party rivals are both attacked in the state and pro-regime press and also courted with the prospect of sharing power. The latest to succumb to that temptation has been Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Yugoslavia

57320. Breaking The Mould: Electoral Reform In Bosnia And Herzegovina

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Electoral reform is on the agenda this year in Bosnia and Herzegovina. For too long the country has been ruled by leaders who draw support from only one of the three main ethnic groups. These leaders have been unable to co-operate on even the simplest matters, inhibiting the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) and forcing the international community to micromanage the country. Electoral reform offers one promising way to allow Bosnians to choose less confrontational leaders, and so start to accept responsibility for their own future.
Topic:: Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

57321. Brcko: A Comprehensive Solution

Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The Arbitral Tribunal on Brcko meets this month, and may or may not this time make its final decision, after postponements in 1997 and 1998. An award to either the Federation or Republika Srpska would provoke an extreme reaction: ICG advocates that a final decision should be made now, and that Brcko municipality should be reunited and made an autonomous district under the constitutional jurisdiction of the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe

57322. Macedonia:"New Faces In Skopje"

Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The recent parliamentary elections and the change of government in Macedonia in many respects are a landmark in the country's development. The smooth transition of power from one political camp to another and the fact that the "radicals" from both major ethnic groups rather than the more moderate parties form the new government are significant in themselves. If the new government manages to solve Macedonia's problems, it might also have repercussions throughout the region. This report, prepared by ICG's field analyst in Skopje, looks back and draws lessons from the elections and the formation of the new government, looks ahead at the key policy changes facing the new administration, and assesses the capacity of the ruling coalition to meet those challenges.
Topic:: Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

57323. The State Of Albania

Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Premier Pandeli Majko's new coalition government is slowly consolidating its hold over the administration, though the overall power of the government remains weak after the country was rocked in September by the worst political violence since the uprising of March 1997. Within the cabinet the deputy premier Ilir Meta has emerged as the key power in most decision-making and policy implementation. The new government consists of representatives of the Socialist Party (PS), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Union of Human Rights Party (PBDNj - this party represents the ethnic Greek minority), Democratic Alliance (AD), and the small Agrarian Party (AP). The largest opposition grouping the Democratic Party (DP), led by former president Sali Berisha, does not recognise the legitimacy of the Socialist-led government, is continuing its boycott of parliament and staging street rallies to push for early elections.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

57324. Too Little Too Late: Implementation of the Sarajevo Declaration

Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Sarajevo's Bosniac authorities were given the opportunity to demonstrate their much-vaunted commitment to multi-ethnicity when, on 3 February 1998, representatives of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnia), the Federation of Bosnia Herzegovina (Federation), Sarajevo Canton and the international community adopted the Sarajevo Declaration. The Declaration stressed the importance of the Bosnian capital “as a model of coexistence and tolerance for the rest of the country” and made it clear that: “The international community will condition continuation of assistance for Sarajevo on fulfilment of the benchmarks set out in this Declaration and on adequate progress toward meeting the 1998 goal of at least 20,000 minority returns.”
Topic:: Demographics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

57325. Regional Burden-Sharing for Humanitarian Action

Author:: David O'Brien
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The emergence of an international humanitarian system, the codification of international humanitarian law and the corresponding creation of supportive organizations, is arguably one of the most welcomed forms of multilateralism in the 20th century. At the close of this century, billions of dollars are raised annually by the UN system to alleviate the suffering caused by natural disasters and war but this financial support is declining and increasingly unable to meet humanitarian needs. This declining resource base, along with a search to diversify sources of funding and the recognition that some emergencies receive adequate attention while others do not, raises question for the need for new burden-sharing arrangements.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Ethnic Conflict, International Cooperation, International Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Africa

57326. Underwriting Humanitarian Assistance

Author:: Shepard Forman
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:: The hopes and aspirations for international cooperation that marked the end of the Cold War had their most exuberant expression in the industrialized countries' ambitious approach to humanitarian intervention. Confronted with an unprecedented number of internal conflicts and media images of mass suffering, the Security Council charged the United Nations with more than a dozen new missions between 1987 and 1996. Conceived largely as peacekeeping operations, these interventions nonetheless took on the requirements and drama of humanitarian assistance as genocide, mass migrations and starvation took their toll on millions of people.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United Nations

57327. The Globalization of Services: What Has Happened? What Are the Implications?

Author:: Gary Hufbauer and Tony Warren
Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Globalization has affected all facets of the world economy. This includes services, which in most economies are the single largest contributor to economic growth and employment. However, despite its importance to national output, the impact of globalization on services is only recently receiving the attention of researchers and policy-makers.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

57328. Hazards and Precautions: Tales of International Finance

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Erika Wada
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: In the wake of financial crises in Mexico (1994-95), Asia (1997-98), Russia (1998) and Brazil (1998-99), respected observers have questioned the benefits of wide-open international capital markets (Bhagwati, 1998; Krugman, 1998; Rodrik, 1998; Eichengreen, 1999). Our purpose is to identify true hazards and suggest appropriate precautions.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Russia, Asia, Brazil, and Mexico

57329. Does Talk Matter After All? Inflation Targeting And Central Bank Behavior

Author:: Adam S. Posen and Kenneth N. Kuttner
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Since 1990, a number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their declared monetary strategy. Interpretations of the significance of this movement, however, have differed widely. To some, inflation targeting mandates the single-minded, rule-like pursuit of price stability without regard for other policy objectives; to others, inflation targeting represents nothing more than the latest version of cheap talk by central banks unable to sustain monetary commitments. Advocates of inflation targeting, including the adopting central banks themselves, have expressed the view that the transparency and communication of the inflation targeting framework grant the central bank greater short-run flexibility in pursuit of its long-run inflation goal.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

57330. Modeling Korean Unification

Author:: Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Tao Wang
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: For North Korea, product market integration would generate large welfare gains, sufficient to end the famine. Additional gains could be had through military demobilization. For the South, the impact of product market integration would be trivial, but the impact of factor market integration would be considerable, affecting the composition of output, distribution of income, and rate of growth.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Israel, East Asia, and Korea

57331. Sovereign Liquidity Crisis: The Strategic Case For A Payments Standstill

Author:: Marcus Miller and Lei Zhang
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:: Is sovereign borrowing so different from corporate debt that there is no need for bankruptcy-style procedures to protect debtors? With the waiver of immunity, sovereign debtors who already face severe disruption from short-term creditors grabbing their currency reserves are also exposed to litigious creditors trying to seize what assets they can in a 'race of the vultures'.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

57332. Panama Canal Transition: The Final Implementation

Author:: C. Richard Nelson, Jr. Gillespie, Brandon Grove Jr., and David E. McGiffert
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The implications of the transfer of the Panama Canal go well beyond U.S. relations with Panama. This complex transition provides an important lesson for Latin America and the rest of the world on how countries of vastly different size and outlook can work together. The success of this 20 year process lies mainly in first identifying the primary common interest of the United States, Panama and the major canal users: access to an open, safe and efficient canal. Important but secondary concerns, including U.S. military access to facilities in Panama, were addressed during the process but never were allowed to displace the primary interest. By focusing on this clear, compelling key objective, both Panama and the United States were able to accommodate fundamental changes in the political, economic and security context, including several changes in administrations, tough negotiations and even a military confrontation.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Latin America

57333. Beyond Kosovo: A Regional Approach to the Balkans

Author:: Roger Kirk, Jack M. Seymour Jr., John Lampe, and Louis Sell
Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Basic Factors Underlying a Regional Settlement 1. Any overall settlement in the Balkans should be area-wide and coordinated among the entities directly involved, the neighboring states, the key nations of the outside community, and the relevant political and economic international institutions. 2. It will have to include political arrangements, international security guarantees, and substantial economic assistance as a basis for genuine peace and reconciliation. 3. It must embrace generally accepted international standards, including respect for human rights and rights for ethnic minorities; right of return for all area refugees; rule of law; effective media freedom; and free elections supervised or, where necessary, organized by the international community. 4. The settlement should promote and institutionalize political and economic cooperation, regional trade and/or formal ties among the participating states and entities of the former Yugoslavia, and neighboring states as feasible, including the free flow of goods, labor and capital. 5. International assistance in reconstruction, economic reform and development of economic ties among the peoples of the region and with the European Community must be massive. It should, however, be designed to promote democratic institutions, market reform, adherence to peace agreements, and respect for human rights. 6. Such assistance should target the private sector, encourage local initiatives, and help governments pursue effective economic reform policies. It should seek to curtail corruption and the maintenance of unprofitable state industries. It should avoid encouraging international dependency. The purpose should be to build societies and practices conducive to self-reliance, international cooperation, and outside investment. Positive and negative lessons can be drawn from experiences in Bosnia. 7. The support of the broad population of Serbia will be necessary if peaceful and economically viable regional arrangements are to last. The reconstruction process implied in these arrangements will itself be an incentive for the Serbs to opt away from destructive nationalist policies and join in the regional reconstruction process. 8. Neither lasting peace in the Balkans nor democracy in Serbia can be achieved as long as Slobodan Milosevic remains in power. He has been indicted by the Tribunal in The Hague for crimes against humanity and his removal from power is a prime NATO objective. There are increasing and encouraging signs of popular Serb desire to be rid of Milosevic, but it is not certain that he will depart in the near future. 9. A regional settlement may have to be negotiated indirectly with, or imposed upon, Milosevic as the ruler of Serbia. It should nevertheless be made clear that the West condemns Milosevic\'s actions, that Serbia cannot resume its rightful place in Europe as long as it is governed by indicted war criminals, and that the West will help the people of Serbia in their efforts to bring forth new, democratic, cosmopolitan leadership in their country. 10. The Kosovar Albanians cannot be expected to live under Serbian control again for the foreseeable future. Arrangements short of formal independence such as an international protectorate or trusteeship are possible, indeed likely, for a transitional period. A more permanent and self-sustaining arrangement is highly desirable if it can be achieved without creating more instability in the former Yugoslav space and the neighboring area. 11. A credible international military presence is needed to encourage the return of the remaining Albanian-Kosovars, the continued residence of Serb-Kosovars and to maintain peace and order within Kosovo and on its borders. Such a presence will also be a lasting part of any transitional arrangement. Any foreseeable regional settlement will similarly require a prolonged foreign military presence. This settlement should, however, lay the foundation for an end to that presence by, among other things, providing for supervised demilitarization of the states and entities involved, and a comprehensive regional arms control agreement. 12. A central objective of any regional settlement should be to promote conditions that will encourage a stable political and military environment, economic growth, and increasing self-reliance. These changes will permit an end to the foreign military, political, and economic presence in the region, though no date for that termination should be set.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Kosovo, and Balkans

57334. Building an Asia-Pacific Security Community: The Role of Nuclear Weapons

Author:: C. Richard Nelson, James E. Goodby, Tomohisha Sakanaka, W. Neal Anderson, Tomohide Murai, and Shinichi Ogawa
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The main challenge for Asia is to build a security community that transforms a legacy of military competition into security cooperation. This transformation will be difficult because of the high level of distrust among the states and considerable uncertainty about future relations. Asia lacks the kinds of developed, institutionalized multilateral security arrangements that contribute to transparency, confidence-building and long-term stability. Furthermore, a “ business as usual ” approach that focuses on managing bilateral relationships is unlikely to result in a security community. More attention needs to be devoted to multilateral security efforts. Without the reassurance of a network of cooperative arrangements, including verifiable arms limitations, potential adversaries may place their hopes in achieving unilateral military advantages. Such efforts could foster fears of regional domination and, in turn, a potential arms race that includes nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
Topic:: Security and NATO
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

57335. An Appropriate Role for Nuclear Power in Meeting Global Energy Needs

Author:: Donald L. Guertin, Richard E. Balzhiser, Christian Gobert, William J. Dirks, Joy C. Dunkerley, and Stephen P. Pettibone
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Despite the recent global economic slowdown, the demand for energy services is bound to increase over the long term in order to provide improved living standards for growing populations, in particular in developing countries. In recognition of its unique characteristics, the demand for electricity will rise even faster than total energy. Several studies present scenarios that show a doubling of global installed capacity over the next twenty years.
Topic:: Energy Policy and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States and Asia

57336. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise

Author:: Philip Manow
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped there-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

57337. Modell Deutschland as an Interdenominational Compromise

Author:: Philip Manow
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: Usually, Germany's social market economy is understood to embody a compromise between a liberal market order and a corporatist welfare state. While this reading of the German case is certainly not entirely wrong, this paper argues that only if we account for the close intellectual correspondence between lutheran Protestantism and economic liberalism on the one hand and between Catholicism and welfare corporatism on the other, can we fully comprehend the nature of the German post-war compromise. In particular, this perspective allows to better explain the anti-liberal undercurrents of Germany's soziale Marktwirtschaft. It was especially the role which Protestant Ordoliberals ascribed to the state in upholding economic order and market discipline which accounts for the major difference between 'classic' and 'German-style' economic liberalism. Yet, the postwar economic order did not represent a deliberately struck compromise between the two major Christian denominations. Rather, Germany's social market economy was the result of the failure of German Protestant Ordoliberals to prevent the reconstruction of the catholic Bismarckian welfare state after the authoritarian solution, which Ordoliberals had endorsed so strongly up until 1936 and from which they had hoped the re-inauguration of Protestant hegemony, had so utterly failed. Since the ordoliberal doctrine up to the present day lacks a clear understanding of the role of the corporatist welfare state within the German political economy, its insights into the functioning logic of German capitalism have remained limit. The paper also claims that accounting for the denominational roots of the postwar compromise allows us to better understand the relationship between consociationalism and corporatism in 'Modell Deutschland'.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Religion
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

57338. Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict

Author:: Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Allen Hammond, David A. Hamburg, Donald Kennedy, John D. Steinbruner, and Timothy E. Wirth
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict
Abstract:: This Web cast highlights issues raised by Donald Kennedy, president emeritus and Bing Professor of Environmental Science of Stanford University, in his newly released monograph Environmental Quality and Regional Conflict. David Hamburg, president emeritus of the Carnegie Corporation and Tim Wirth, president of the United Nations Foundation, will give introductory remarks. In addition to Kennedy, presenters include John Steinbruner, senior fellow at The Brookings Institution; Jessica Mathews, president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Allen Hammond, director of strategic analysis at the World Resources Institute
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Environment, Peace Studies, and Science and Technology

57339. From Civil War to Civil Society: The Transition from War to Peace in Guatemala and Liberia

Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: Freed American slaves began to settle what is currently known as Liberia in the 1820s, often in the face of hostility from the local inhabitants. By 1847, the ex-slaves and their descendants had declared a republic and began a 150 year period of Americo-Liberian elite rule based on domination and exploitation of the indigenous population. In 1980, Americo-Liberian rule ended with a military coup staged by Samuel Doe. The ensuing regime, violently suppressed any form of opposition for the next ten years, creating deadly ethnic cleavages.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:: Central America, Liberia, and Guatemala

57340. Developing a Methodology for Conflict Prevention: The Case of Estonia

Author:: Joyce Neu and Vamik Volkan
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: In April 1994, with Russian troops still stationed in Estonia, The Carter Center's Conflict Resolution Program (CRP) joined with International Negotiation Network (INN) members Vamik Volkan of the University of Virginia's Center for the Study of Mind and Human Interaction (CSMHI) and Harold Saunders of the Kettering Foundation to implement a set of workshops. The three-year series aimed to reduce tensions on two fronts: between Russia and Estonia and between Russians in Estonia and Estonians.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Estonia

57341. Transparency Project

Author:: Jennifer McCoy and Shelley McConnell
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: The Carter Center's Americas Program and its Council of Presidents and Prime Ministers of the Americas have initiated a multiyear project to work with governments and civil society to develop monitoring mechanisms to help combat corruption in government transactions and serve as a model for the rest of the world. Greater "transparency" in government-business interactions can improve investor confidence, spur economic growth, provide better public services to the population, and increase public confidence in democratic institutions. At a high-level conference May 4-5, 1999, leaders from across the hemisphere came to The Carter Center to evaluate specific anti-corruption efforts and seek commitments from other governments to implement similar strategies in their own countries. In preparation for that conference, The Carter Center partnered with three countries—Ecuador, Jamaica, and Costa Rica—to develop and assess specific anti-corruption tools.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Human Rights, and Migration
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

57342. The Geopolitics of Energy Development in the Caspian Region: Regional Cooperation or Conflict?

Author:: Vadim Rubin
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: The Caspian Basin has emerged in recent years as a major focus of international affairs for a combination of political, economic, and geostrategic reasons. In the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union's dissolution in the early 1990s the region's newly independent states were overshadowed by Russia and attracted little Western and U.S. attention. But over the past several years this region has attracted growing attention from Western policymakers and scholars, as well as the media and the private sector. One of the main reasons for this new focus on the Caspian is its sizable energy reserves. In addition to its potential as a significant oil producer, however, it is also the Caspian's geostrategic location, its diverse mix of ethnic groups, and its unsettled intrastate and interstate conflicts that make it both an enticing and challenging region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Development, Energy Policy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, and Caspian Sea

57343. The Cox Committee Report: An Assessment

Author:: Michael M. May, Alastair Iain Johnston, W.K.H. Panofsky, Marco Di Capua, and Lewis R. Franklin
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: The Cox Commission of the U.S. Congress was established in June 1998 to investigate concerns over Chinese acquisition of sensitive U.S. missile and space technology in connection with the launching of U.S. civilian satellites using Chinese launchers on Chinese territory. The investigations were broadened in October 1998 to include alleged security problems and possible espionage at the U.S. nuclear weapons laboratories. Some conclusions were released in January 1999 by the White House together with the administration's response. The full declassified (redacted) version of the report of the Cox Commission was released on May 25, 1999.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

57344. The U.S. Military and Civil Infrastructure Protection: Restrictions and Discretion under the Posse Comitatus Act

Author:: Gregory D. Grove
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: This article sets out the constraints of the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878 (the “Act”), which generally prohibits active enforcement of civilian laws by the military, and describes the discretion of the military commander to assist civilian law enforcement in protecting America's information infrastructure against computer—assisted attack. A primary purpose of this article is to help legal advisors to commanders and DoD civilian officials better understand the boundaries of command discretion so that commanders and officials can feel free to exercise proper command discretion to assist law enforcement according to military interests and their professional and personal ethics and ideals. Another primary purpose of the article is to appraise Congress of the Act, its prohibitions, and its application to assist in framing the policy debate about how to constrain or expand the discretion of commanders and other officials to most productively serve the American public.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States

57345. The Nonproliferation Regime under Siege

Author:: George Bunn
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: The nuclear nonproliferation regime was challenged in 1998 by nuclear-weapon tests in India and Pakistan, by medium-range missile tests in those countries and in Iran and North Korea, by Iraq's defiance of UN Security Council resolutions requiring it to complete its disclosure of efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, and by the combination of “loose nukes” and economic collapse in Russia. Additional threats to the regime's vitality came in 1999 from the erosion of American relations with both China and Russia that resulted from NATO's 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia—with additional harm to relations with China resulting from U.S. accusations of Chinese nuclear espionage and Taiwan's announcement that it was a state separate from China despite its earlier acceptance of a U.S.-Chinese “one China” agreement. Major threats to the regime also came from the continued stalemate on arms-control treaties in the Russian Duma and the U.S. Senate, from a change in U.S. policy to favor building a national defense against missile attack, and from a Russian decision to develop a new generation of small tactical nuclear weapons for defense against conventional attack.
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, Government, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Korea

57346. Commercialization of Russian Technology in Cooperation with American Companies

Author:: David Bernstein
Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: The Soviet Union placed a high priority on science and technology and built a huge assembly of research institutes, educational programs, design bureaus, and production enterprises embodying some measure of science and/or technology. This assembly concentrated over—whelmingly on military applications. Approximately three—quarters of this complex was located in Russia, but essential elements of many programs were located in other republics. The nature, structure, size, and operation of this military—industrial complex (MIC) as well as its decline and change during the Gorbachev and post—Soviet periods of economic transition have been documented in the literature.
Topic:: Industrial Policy, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

57347. Climate Change and the Transformation of World Energy Supply

Author:: Steve Fetter
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: In December 1997, world attention turned to Kyoto, Japan, where parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) negotiated a protocol to reduce the greenhouse-gas emissions of the industrialized countries by 5 percent below 1990 levels over the next ten to fifteen years. The agreement has been attacked from both sides. Environmental groups assert that much deeper reductions are urgently needed. Opponents claim that the proposed reductions are either unnecessary or premature, would curtail economic growth, or would be unfair or ineffective without similar commitments by developing countries.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, International Cooperation, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: Japan

57348. A Cross-Regional Analysis of Civil Society and Democratic Development

Author:: Andrew Green
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: Domestic instability often has a deleterious effect at the international level, too, particularly as more states adopt democratic institutions and market-oriented economies. Whether we are talking about failing multi-ethnic states and their impact on the UN and NATO, or about failing economies and their impact on international markets and such international organizations as the IMF and the World Bank, it is clear that the domestic and international levels cannot be separated. While instability may arise from many different sources, the state-society connection is perhaps the most problematic: a democracy in which the only link between citizens and politicians is the electoral connection is a democracy impoverished by stagnant ideas and limited societal input. A state disconnected from society is prone to domestic instability, with negative effects at both the domestic and international levels.
Topic:: NATO, Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, International Political Economy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United Nations

57349. The Competitive Advantage of Hollywood Industry

Author:: Luc Veron
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: The author is very grateful for the support, both material and intellectual, which he received during his stay at the University of Southern California. He is particularly appreciative of the many conversations he had with colleagues at the School of International Relations, the Center for International Studies, the Marshall School of Business and the Department of Economics of USC as well as at UCLA's School of Public Policy and Social Research which greatly helped him to formulate the ideas presented here. Although the author is currently employed by the European Commission, the ideas expressed in this paper are purely personal and do not reflect the views of any institution.
Topic:: Globalization, Industrial Policy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and California

57350. Hollywood and Europe: A Case of Trade in Cultural Industries, the 1993 GATT Dispute

Author:: Luc Veron
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:: The heated dispute that erupted at the end of the GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) negotiations between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) on audio-visual services is fairly representative of the cultural argument in trade. Culture is often proclaimed to oppose full liberalisation of international exchanges of goods and services. In 1989, after the liberalisation of US film import in Korea, angry Koreans directors in some Seoul theatres showing US movies released poisonous snakes Japan traditionally opposed rice imports on the basis that it would endanger Japanese culture. The United States claimed that the "potato-potato-potato rhythm at idle and the staccato beat at cruising speeds" of a Harley-Davidson was part of the American culture with the obvious aim to ridicule any notion of culture, or more precisely of national culture. German director Wim Wenders replied to the latter by provocatively reminding that the essence of US national culture being trade the Americans have no sense of any possible contradiction between trade and culture. When, to justify the remarkable work of the Australian Film Commission, experts came up with a tentative definition of Australian culture, the simple evocation of Crocodile Dundee generated outrage, especially among the feminists. It is uneasy to find an acceptable and workable definition of national culture to analyse its impact on trade.
Topic:: Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, Europe, Germany, Australia, and Korea

57351. Between the Living and the Dead: The Politics of Irish History

Author:: Bernard Rorke
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Democracy, University of Westminster
Abstract:: The destruction of the past ... is one of the most characteristic and eerie phenomena of the late twentieth century. Young men and women at the century's end grow up in a sort of permanent present lacking any organic relation to the public past of the times they live in.
Topic:: Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe

57352. Playing the Green Card - Financing the Provisional IRA : Part 1

Author:: John Horgan and Max Taylor
Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:: In the first of two articles on the fundraising activities of the Provisional IRA (PIRA), the extent and nature of the PIRA's finance operations are described. The areas of kidnapping for ransom, armed robbery. extortion and drug trading, although very specific, serve to illustrate the nature and potential complexity of fundraising activities, the general issues that surround them, as well as specific internal organizational issues and factors indicative of an acute awareness by PIRA leaders of the environments within which they and members of their organization operate. How the PIRAs involvement in certain kinds of criminal activities can and does influence not only their operational development and successes but also the development and sustenance of support for the PIRA's political wing, Sinn Fein, is discussed. It is clear that the absence of direct PIRA involvement in certain forms of criminality is imperative for the development of Sinn Fein's political successes. In the second article, which describes how and why PIRA financing operations have evolved into a much more sophisticated and technical set of activities (including money laundering), what emerges is a picture of the PIRA and Sinn Fein which serves to portray one of the most important long-term, fundamental, limiting factors for the development of a large, sophisticated terrorist group (and its political wing) as finance, and not solely the personal or ideological commitment of its active members. Both of these articles will illustrate the PIRA leadership's many internal organizational concerns relating to fundraising, the links between the PIRA's militants and Sinn Fein - and between PIRA and Sinn Fein fundraising - and the relative sophistication of the Republican movement as a whole. Aiding these illustrations will be case study material, interview data and both public and privately-held documentation. The descriptive data, surrounding issues and its implications presented here, along with case-study material, discussions and interpretations presented in a second article serve to illustrate the many more general and conceptual issues emerging from terrorist financing.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Politics, and Terrorism

57353. Technological Change in the Telecommunications Industry

Author:: Judith Mariscal
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: This document examines technological change in the telecommunications industry at the international level, from the perspective which sustains that this change as the driving force behind policy reform, based on the public interest theory of regulation, argues that the emergence and diffusion of new technologies has transformed the market structure in this sector ad as a consequence the nature of government policy. The dramatic technological innovation that this industry experienced transformed the once stable role of the state in telecommunications. Until recent years telecommunications policy amounted to a rather narrow one, that of determining fair rates of basic service provided by a regulated telephone monopoly. The resulting increases in productivity of these new technologies has led to a high segmentation of this industry; to a proliferation in the number and kinds of firms providing telecommunications services which in turn transformed the role of government in this industry. This document will provide an understanding of the traditional technologies available in telecommunications and explore the mergence of new technologies. The most significant result of innovation has been declining costs along with an increased capacity of equipment unites and reliability. Because of this rapid technological change, new firms have entered the market bringing differentiated and new products and services. The objective is to identify how technological innovation decreased costs and allowed the entry of new competitors. The policy consequences were to erode the natural monopoly standing of this industry, to make it more contestable and with this to transform its traditional regulatory structure. The first section of this document will examine the prevailing literature on regulation as sustained by the public interest theory of regulation. The following sections will describe the conventional technology employed in telecommunications, the technological innovations that have occurred as well as how these technologies have transformed this industry at a worldwide level.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology

57354. Coping with US-Mexican Interdependence: The NAFTA Response

Author:: Miguel Ángel Valverde
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas
Abstract:: This paper examines the theoretical discussion on interdependence, and its use for analyzing U.S.-Mexican economic relations. It combines interdependence's premises with other perspectives on the position of the North American economies in the global marketplace, arguing that NAFTA is an institutional response to these developments.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, Central America, North America, and Mexico

57355. Russian Federal Budget and the Regions

Author:: Alexei Makushkin
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: In the period of the Soviet rule public finances formed the basis of the national economy and, consequently, were the key factor determining the relationship between the Central power and the regions. Beginning with the proclamation of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation in 1 99 1 the role of the Center and the regions changed. The State has reduced its influence on the national economy, largely due to the reduction of the share of the GDP reallocated through the Central budgetary system. In 1 999 the volume of the budgetary reallocated product made only 14- 1 5% of the total. The relationship between the federal budget and the system of the regional finances became very complicated and oblique. The state economic sector has decreased, power has become decentralized in Russia.
Topic:: Security, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

57356. Russia and the World: A New Deal

Author:: Alexei Arbatov and Dag Hartelius
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Ten years after the end of the Cold War, Russian leaders still have to recognize not only the irreplaceable importance of the Western countries and Japan as partners, but also the rapidly growing relative importance of the European Union, since the special relationship with the U.S., based on strategic deterrence, is becoming less relevant. The development of relations with the EU should now be at the top of the Russian agenda. This presents the EU with a certain challenge but is also an enormous opportunity for developing enlarged markets and advancing improved security. At the same time, the U.S. will remain a key partner for Russia in international affairs and in the handling of harmful Soviet legacies, such as disposing of nuclear and chemical wastes. Also, Russia will have to move towards deeper regional economic integration in East Asia instead of approaching the problems in this region from a traditional security perspective.
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union, and Moscow

57357. Managing Relations between governmental and non-governmental organizations

Author:: Rachel Lutz
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: Since 1992-93, the EastWest Institute (EWI) has been organizing meetings of a 'Strategy Group for Strengthening Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe'. The Strategy Group brings together representatives of the Central and Eastern European Associates of the European Union and Ukraine (and Western states and neighbouring countries where appropriate) to discuss the security challenges facing the region. The Strategy Group aims to foster the development of cooperative solutions to the problems facing Central and Eastern Europe. Participants in Strategy Group conferences and workshops come from diverse backgrounds, including governmental representatives, politicians, business people, academics and non-governmental representatives.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

57358. Regional Policy in the Process of Integration

Author:: Aleko Djildjov and Vasil Marinov
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: There are different possible approaches to solving this problem. Considering its extreme complexity, and especially the lack of relevant practices in market economic conditions and in a democratic decision-making process, one of the possible solutions is the study and analysis, of the experience of other countries. If relevant, these experiences in countries which have already institutionalized regional development can be promoted. Although the experience of the countries in the EU, of which Bulgaria aspires to become a member, is important, it is even more important to study the current experience of countries in which conditions are closer to those in Bulgaria.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Bulgaria

57359. Private Governance and Democracy in International Finance

Author:: William D. Coleman
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:: The governance arrangements in international finance mirror, in part, those found domestically by featuring a partnership between relatively autonomous state agencies and private actors. Where they depart from domestic arrangements is in the relatively stronger position of private actors, particularly global financial conglomerates, in decision-making. Given the importance of the governance arrangements in international finance for the welfare of individuals and firms throughout the world, it is important to ask whether these arrangements conform to accepted criteria for democratic decision-making. Five criteria are identified that might be applied to international sites of governance. These criteria are then applied to three groups of institutions, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), and “private regimes” especially predominant in the derivatives subsector. Based on this analysis, important gaps are found when these governance institutions are held up to democratic principles.
Topic:: Globalization, Government, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

57360. State Power and the Asian Crisis

Author:: Linda Weiss
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:: The Asian financial crisis has re-opened the debate about the role of the state in the region's industrialisation. Just when there seemed to be growing acknowledgment across the economic and political disciplines that certain kinds of state involvement were vital to the rapid upgrading of the Northeast Asian economies and that understanding what made states effective or ineffective was a crucial issue, along came the financial hurricane. Profound disarray of an economic and social nature has been the most immediate and important consequence of this watershed event. Theoretical disarray has followed closely in its path. This paper seeks to inject some theoretical rigour into the discussion of the Asian crisis. State power in the Asian setting - whether and in what way the state's transformative capacity is weak or robust - and how it relates to the impact of international markets is central to the argument that follows.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Asia and Northeast Asia

57361. Coming to Terms with Globalisation: Non State Actors and Agenda for Justice and Governance in the Next Century

Author:: Richard Higgott
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:: Globalisation is now a near ubiquitous phenomenon. Indeed, it is the most over used and under specified term in the international policy sciences since the passing of the Cold War. However, as most actors in the international policy domain recognise, it is a term that is not going to go away. Policy responses--of state and non state actors alike--are increasingly coming to terms with globalisation, however defined.
Topic:: Democratization, Globalization, Government, Non-Governmental Organization, and Political Theory
Political Geography:: Europe

57362. International Institutions, Globalisation and Democray: Assessing the Challenges

Author:: Tony Porter and William D. Coleman
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition, McMaster University
Abstract:: The advance of globalization has involved additional governance capacity at supranational levels and thereby raised concerns about democracy, which has traditionally been based on the nationstate. For the most part, these governance arrangements take the form of intergovernmental fora, where nation-states are the principal players. In some policy areas where globalization is more pronounced, such as international finance, governance appears to feature some autonomous institutional development. Autonomy may come in the form of a relatively strong international organization with a mandate anchored in international law such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), or of the institutionalization of norms and values that give the intergovernmental forum an autonomous and distinct global perspective. As Held (1995) has observed, democratic theory has assumed that the nation-state is the relevant decision-making unit. The migration of political authority to supranational levels thus has the potential to undermine long-standing democratic arrangements.
Topic:: Globalization, Government, International Law, International Organization, International Political Economy, and Political Theory

57363. Social and Economic Policies to Prevent Complex Humanitarian Emergencies

Author:: Jeni Klugman
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Complex humanitarian emergencies have caused widespread death and suffering over the last two decades. While recent tragedies in Bosnia, Rwanda and Angola have made the world more aware of the terrible human toll involved, the international community has yet to develop effective policy responses to stem such crises.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, Genocide, Human Rights, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Rwanda, and Angola

57364. Acoustic Weapons—A Prospective Assessment: Sources, Propagation, and Effects of Strong Sound

Author:: Jürgen Altmann
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
Abstract:: Acoustic weapons are under research and development in a few countries. Advertised as one type of non-lethal weapons, they are said to immediately incapacitate opponents while avoiding permanent physical damage. Reliable information on specifications or effects is scarce, however. The present report sets out to provide basic information in several areas: effects of large-amplitude sound on humans, potential high-power sources, and propagation of strong sound.
Topic:: Defense Policy and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

57365. The Criterion of Citizenship for Minorities: The Example of Estonia

Author:: Carmen Thiele
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: Using the example of Estonia, the criterion of citizenship as a prerequisite for membership in a national minority and its legal consequences for persons belonging to these groups is discussed. While at the universal level minority protection is considered as a basic human right, at the European level it is still viewed as a right of citizens. The author pleads for a simplification of the naturalisation process and the renouncing of the citizenship criterion as a requirement for membership of a national minority.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, International Law, and Nationalism
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Estonia

57366. Bilateral Agreements in Central and Eastern Europe: A New Inter-State Framework for Minority Protection?

Author:: Kinga Gál
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: The practice of bilateral agreements on good neighbourly relations was 'reinvented' by Germany after 1991 to guarantee the frontiers resulting from World War II and to protect the minorities of German origin in Central and Eastern Europe. A similar policy was pursued by Hungary with five of its neighbours to deal with the problems of the Hungarian minorities. Parallel to this trend, the European Union has also promoted a policy aimed at guaranteeing stability in Central and Eastern Europe through bilateral agreements on good neighbourliness. The bilateral treaties follow each other in time, structure and content. They incorporate soft law provisions, especially with regard to their minority regulations, reflecting the strong influence of the political factor. They do not mention collective rights and fail to provide the national minorities concerned with any form of self-government. Furthermore, they were often negotiated in the absence of the minority communities they were designed to protect. As these treaties are politically highly motivated, the political aspects of the implementation mechanisms have received primacy over the legal possibilities. The treaties, and hence indirectly the provisions of international documents enshrined in them, have the same status as national legislation and could therefore be claimed before national courts. However, the joint intergovernmental committees monitoring implementation have the potential to become the most effective implementation mechanism. In conclusion, although these treaties have not significantly changed the existing practice of minority protection so far, their importance should not be diminished because they contribute to the construction of a new inter-state framework for minority protection.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Germany

57367. The Albanian Aromanians' Awakening: Identity Politics and Conflicts in Post-Communist Albania

Author:: Stephanie Schwandner-Sievers
Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for Minority Issues (ECMI)
Abstract:: Today, many thousands of Aromanians (also known as "Vlachs") live quite compactly in Northern Greece, Macedonia (FYROM) and southern Albania; and there are still traces of Vlach-Aromanian and Aromanian populations in Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia and Romania. In Albania, they were recently estimated at about 200,000 by the English scholar Tom Winnifrith. In Albanian communist times, Aromanians were not recognised as a separate minority group, officially considered to be almost completely assimilated. However, in the early post-communist transition period, a vivid Aromanian ethnic movement emerged in Albania and it became part of a recent global Balkan Aromanian initiative. The Albanian Aromanians' new emphasis of their ethnicity can be seen as a pragmatic strategy of adjustment to successes and failures in the Albanian political transition and to globalisation. It is exactly the re-vitalisation of the conflict between followers of a pro-Greek and a pro-Romanian Aromanian identification that serves to broaden the scope of options for potential exploitation.
Topic:: Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Albania

57368. Europe and Its Neighbors

Author:: Gianni Vaggi
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Union Studies Center
Abstract:: The paper is an introduction to some of the issues that the enlargement, both in terms of memberships and association, will involve.
Topic:: International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:: Europe

57369. Thinking About the Future: Economic Aspects

Author:: Emilio Gerelli
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Union Studies Center
Abstract:: Building scenarios of the future has been defined "the art of thinking the unthinkable". And in fact the successful author of scenarios must be able to combine both an open and creative mind, and analytical capabilities to envisage different and sometimes counterintuitive combinations of actors, factors and trends. Our author is often also "heroic", since he knows that most probably he will be disproved by facts. However it is worth bravely accepting the challenge of uncertainty, since "illustrating the future by means of scenarios is a way to overcome human beings' resistance to change. Scenarios can thus open mental horizons to allow the individual to accept and understand change, and so be able to shape the world. Scenarios may help in seizing new opportunities ahead as well as avoiding undesirable effects of misconceived actions". In this connection a historian notes: "it is desirable, possible and even within certain limits necessary to forecast our future…However the process of forecasting must be based necessarily on the knowledge of the past".
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

57370. AIDS and Developing Countries: Democratizing Access to Essential Medicines

Author:: Tom Barry, Robert Weissman, and Martha Honey
Publication Date:: 08-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: Africa and the developing world are facing an HIV/AIDS crisis equated by the U.S. surgeon general to the plague that decimated Europe in the fourteenth century. Combinations of available pharmaceuticals-too expensive for nearly all of the infected people in the developing world-could enable many afflicted with HIV/AIDS to live relatively normal lives. Compulsory licensing and parallel importing policies could help developing country governments make essential medicines more affordable to their citizens.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, and Third World
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Europe

57371. Bombs Away: A Call for the Unconditional Ending of the Bombing Campaign

Author:: Tom Barry and Martha Honey
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: The Foreign Policy In Focus project functions as a network of foreign policy experts. The following brief, written by one of the project's codirectors, benefits from the expert opinions about the Kosovo crisis from numerous experts and organizations that have contributed to the project's efforts to make the U.S. a more responsible global leader and partner. We see this policy brief as a living document that will be regularly updated and revised as this horrific manifestation of U.S. militarism and global irresponsibility evolves. The policy brief calls for the unconditional halt to this war of terror. Comments appreciated.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Migration
Political Geography:: United States and Eastern Europe

57372. European Political Considerations on Operations Beyond Europe

Author:: Klaus Becher
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The nations of the European Union represent not only one of the two most important economic actors in the world, but also include some countries of world-wide political importance. Half of the G-8 membership is from the EU, as are two permanent members of the UN Security Council. The responsibilities and obligations that, historically, European powers accumulated in all continents still have many remnants. The two big European wars of the 20th century were also fought in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia. Europe, while enjoying the benefits of a large, expanding internal market, depends for its prosperity on a secure and functioning global order.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Lebanon, Iceland, Nagasaki, and Taipei

57373. The Persian Gulf

Author:: Shahram Chubin
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: In the past fifty years five US President's from Truman to Clinton have directly or indirectly, affirmed US interests in the Middle East. The 'doctrines' in the case of Carter (1979) and Reagan (1981) specifically addressed the security of the Persian Gulf. The same period has seen the withdrawal of imperial powers. Three decades ago Britain managed the security of the Persian Gulf. Two decades ago France had the largest naval force in the Indian Ocean. The contraction of these commitments was encouraged by the US, which was unwilling to be associated with colonialism and its evils. Yet since Britain's withdrawal from the Gulf which occasioned the Nixon doctrine, the US has been grappling with how best to assure security. Reliance on regional states ("twin pillars") was upset by the Iranian revolution. In the 1980's the long Iran-Iraq war underscored the need for a Western role, but neither its shape nor its duration were clear. Local forces were reluctant to envisage any thing beyond an "over the horizon presence."
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:: Britain, United States, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and France

57374. Emerging European Power Projection Capabilities

Author:: Francois Heisbourg
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The Kosovo air war was an eye-opener for many Europeans, particularly for those who normally follow defence issues at a distance. There was no escaping the realisation that close to three-quarters of the aircraft and more than four-fifths of the ordnance released against Serbian targets were American. America's massive dominance in C31 was similarly spectacular, with media commentators using the over-simplified but effective equation: "Fifty U.S. military satellites, a single European satellite". Under such circumstances U.S. influence on all strategic and operational aspects of the war could only be overwhelming, for better or for worse, a situation summarised by the syllogism "no capability-no responsibility". Despite deep strategic flaws, questionable tactics and occasional rank incompetence (the Apache episode, the China Embassy bombing), the U.S. edge is so great that it can afford even serious blunders.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:: America, Europe, and Middle East

57375. US Perceptions of NATO Deployments Beyond Europe and of European Capabilities

Author:: Stuart Johnson
Publication Date:: 07-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The United States and its NATO allies have engaged in two high intensity conflicts in this decade, Desert Storm in the Gulf and Operation Allied Force in Yugoslavia. Both campaigns were characterized by a strong, and successful, effort to maintain broad coalition participation and cohesion. But the story is more complex than the press releases from NATO Headquarters, Washington, and other NATO capitals would have us believe. Both operations revealed differences in US and European allies' capabilities and styles of prosecuting warfare. These forced the commanders to adopt an ad-hoc, inefficient division of labor in what, to the public, was presented as a seamless coalition operation.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Middle East

57376. Cooption and Repression in the Soviet Union

Author:: Dmitriy Gershenson and Herschel I. Grossman
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Independent Institute
Abstract:: The Soviet ruling elite, the nomenklatura, used both cooption and political repression to encourage loyalty to the communist regime. Loyalty was critical both in defusing internal opposition to the rule of the nomenklatura and in either deterring or defeating foreign enemies of the Soviet Union. The cost of coopting people into the communist party was a decrease in the standard of living of members of the nomenklatura, whereas the cost of political repression was the danger that members of the nomenklatura would themselves be victimized. We assume that the nomenklatura determined the extent of cooption and the intensity of political repression by equating perceived marginal benefits and marginal costs.
Topic:: Cold War and Government
Political Geography:: Russia and China

57377. Sustainable Use of Biodiversity — What We Can Learn from Ecotourism in Developing Countries

Author:: Petra Stephan
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: The General Assembly of the United Nations proclaimed the year 2002 as "The International Year of Ecotourism". Multilateral development institutions such as the World Bank, the Global Environmental Facility, governments in developing countries, the tourism industry as well as local non-governmental organizations all over the world count on ecotourism as a supposed panacea for development and biodiversity protection. With assumed annual growth rates from ten up to thirty percent, ecotourism is often praised as the most dynamic sector in the tourism industry. But some of the stakeholders in the tourism industry seem to use a very extended definition of ecotourism. It includes wildlife watching as well as adventure tourism. Tourism products that are advertised under the label "eco" often only have in common, that they take place in nature. A lot of these offers can be called "ecotourism-light". They only add visits to protected areas to regular package tours, for instance. The concept of "ecotourism" seems to share this fate with the concept of "sustainable development": everybody talks about it and everybody defines it in accordance with one's own interests.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, Environment, Globalization, and International Political Economy

57378. Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Latin America

Author:: William Smith and Roberto Korzeniewicz
Publication Date:: 05-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Latin American and Iberian Studies at Columbia University
Abstract:: The crystallization of the so-called “Washington Consensus” in the late 1980s sparked intense debates regarding the likely social impact of macroeconomic stabilization and structural adjustment. Academic critics and political opponents argued that Washingtonian reforms, and neoclassical economics more broadly, lacked a coherent theory of growth, and were bound to result in long-term negative trends in popular welfare and social inequality. Advocates of neoliberal restructuring, in contrast, while recognizing that market-oriented reforms could lead initially to a decline in output and standards of living, were confident that these reforms eventually would lead to sustainable growth and, as a consequence, greater equality and enhanced social welfare. A decade later we revisit this debate to evaluate recent trends in economic growth, poverty and inequality, and to assess accompanying shifts in the theoretical, policy, and political terrains.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: Washington, South America, Latin America, Central America, and Caribbean

57379. Indonesia in Transition

Author:: Michael P. Taylor
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The Schlesinger Working Group on Strategic Surprises held its first two sessions in the fall of 1999, convening practitioners and area experts to discuss Indonesia immediately before and after that country's presidential selection. Participants debated the composition of the new government, the prospect of further regional separatism, and the future role of the military, and the political and social impact of the continuing financial crisis, among other issues. Many expected that the broad coalition-style government that emerged under the leadership of Abdurrahman Wahid would offer short-term stability at the expense of a decisive policy direction. The center would hold in the short term but be weakened.
Topic:: Development, Ethnic Conflict, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Asia

57380. Security Multilateralism in Asia: Views from the United States and Japan

Author:: Stephan Haggard, Ralph Cossa, Daniel Pinkston, and Akiko Fukushima
Publication Date:: 06-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: The U.S. government has been generally supportive of, and an active participant in, a broad variety of multilateral security dialogue mechanisms that have emerged in the Asia-Pacific region in recent years. These efforts at building trust and confidence, both at the official and at the nongovernmental or so-called track-two level, have the potential for enhancing Northeast Asian regional security. All Northeast Asian nations express support for such efforts, and the current trend toward multilateralism is generally consistent with U.S. foreign policy objectives in Asia as an important complement to America's bilateral security arrangements, which remain the foundation of U.S. security policy in Asia.
Topic:: Security and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, America, Israel, Asia, and Northeast Asia

57381. Germany: Migration Policies for the 21st Century

Author:: Philip L. Martin
Publication Date:: 04-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:: As immigration and integration become subject to heightened public debate and policy attention, Germany and the United States must rethink the policy process in order to promote policy consistency and awareness of its international repercussions. Recent German and U.S. debates and policy changes point to the need for agencies to monitor developments and suggest policy options, and administrative structures that permit some flexibility in administering immigration and integration policies.
Topic:: Government, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Germany

57382. Security and Development in the Lens of Complexity Theory: The Baltic and Russia, A.D. 1000 to 2000

Author:: Walter C. Clemens, Jr.
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: This paper suggests how basic concepts of complexity theory can be applied to international relations and—as a test case—to analyze security and development issues in the Baltic states and Russia. Complexity theory suggests ways to assess the fitness of states—defined as the capacity to cope with complex challenges. Fitness depends not just on material strength relative to changing conditons but also on a capacity for self-organization. Societies that are too rigid or too chaotic lack this capacity. Complexity theory's emphasis on coevolution reminds us to analyze actors in relation to each other and to their common environment.
Political Geography:: Russia

57383. Explaining Political Corruption: An Institutional-Choice Approach

Author:: Michael w. Collier
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: This paper presents and institutional-choice model that addresses the problem of political corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain. The institutional-choice model first employs a rational-choice game, and then through a constructivist analyses links the game solutions to a surrounding institutional structure that influences agent decisions. This paper models political corruption as a coordination game among a state's ruling elite and citizen groups—a game with multiple solutions that reveal the range of corruption expected among states. A constructivist theory of rules is then used to build the causal mechanisms explaining the domestic and international causes of political corruption. The paper highlights the need to build self-enforcing mechanisms to police the conduct of public officials.This paper presents and institutional-choice model that addresses the problem of political corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain. The institutional-choice model first employs a rational-choice game, and then through a constructivist analyses links the game solutions to a surrounding institutional structure that influences agent decisions. This paper models political corruption as a coordination game among a state's ruling elite and citizen groups—a game with multiple solutions that reveal the range of corruption expected among states. A constructivist theory of rules is then used to build the causal mechanisms explaining the domestic and international causes of political corruption. The paper highlights the need to build self-enforcing mechanisms to police the conduct of public officials.
Topic:: International Relations and Politics

57384. Popes, Kings and Endogenous Institutions: The Concordat of Worms and the Origins of Sovereignty

Author:: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: Very rough preliminary and incomplete draft The modern state-centric international system is generally thought to have its origins in the Treaty of Westphalia. From that perspective, the modern sovereign state owes its origins to the resolution of the Thirty Years War. Prior to 1648, international politics are thought to have been less territorially focused, with feudal ties taking precedence over considerations of state. Here I set out a modest theory of competition between the Catholic church and European kings, especially the Holy Roman Emperor and the kings of France and England, during the years from 1122 onward. That theory suggests that the modern territorial state has its origins in the Concordat of Worms, 500 years earlier than is generally thought. It also suggests that the development of important institutions of the modern sovereign state are an endogenous product of strategic maneuvering between the Catholic Church and European kings over political control within their domains. Naturally, other factors, including competition between kings and barons, and aristocrats and merchants also play an important part in the evolution of political institutions. Those other considerations, however, are not examined here so that what I propose is a partial, incomplete account of the early developments that culminated in the modern territorial, sovereign state. Specifically, the theory maintains that the development of “modern” political institutions and the history of economic growth in Europe are to a significant degree the consequence of competition between monarchs and the Catholic church. This views stands in contrast to the general accounts of economic growth or of institution building found in the sociological literature beginning with Weber or in the historical and much of the political economy literature.
Topic:: International Law, Religion, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Europe

57385. Neorealism's Logic and Evidence: When is a Theory Falsified?

Author:: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: Knowledge progresses through a dynamic process. Arguments are made for the plausibility of hypotheses. The logic of such arguments is scrutinized and the evidence for and against the inferences drawn from the arguments is evaluated. Progress is made by reducing the set of logically and empirically plausible explanations of the phenomena of interest. Such reduction takes place on at least two levels. Some seemingly plausible explanations are eliminated for want of logical coherence. Others, passing the test of logical coherence, are superceded by alternatives that account for a broader array of empirical phenomena and/or a broader set of facts. In this essay I suggest that on both grounds, the neorealist research program is no longer a plausible explanation of the central phenomena in international relations with which it is concerned.
Topic:: International Relations

57386. Interests, Schminterests: Precision in Descriptions of and Assumptions About State Motivations

Author:: Kenneth Lloyd Forsberg
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: Occasionally, terminological problems reflect underlying conceptual confusions that can seriously impede the advancement of discourse and understanding. This paper argues that two such problems currently exist in much of international relations scholarship, focused around the concept “interests.”
Topic:: International Relations

57387. Civic and Ethnic Allegiances: Competing Visions of Nationalist Discourse in the Horn of Africa

Author:: Eric Garcetti
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: In January 1963, Haile Selassie, Emperor of Ethiopia, stood in the dry bed of the Mereb River in northern Ethiopia and in front of the world's cameras cut a ribbon over the border separating Ethiopia and Eritrea to symbolize the recent “unification” of the two states. More than 36 years later, any idea of amity, let alone unity, between Ethiopia and Eritrea lies in shreds along the border, scene of a seven-month military standoff between the two states. As mediators from President Clinton to Mohamar Ghaddafi rush to find a solution to the escalating conflict, both armies are on the precipice of an all-out war.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Nationalism
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

57388. 'Rogue' States and International Relations

Author:: Paul D. Hoyt
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: Over the last few years a new concept has taken on heightened emphasis in the public rhetoric of American policymakers: that is, the “rogue state” and the related “pariah” and “outlaw state” designations. In American post-Cold War thinking, these states have emerged as one of the major, if not the most preeminent, of America's security concerns. As fears of a nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union recede into memory, “rogue states” tend to be joined with such international evils, and perceived threats to U.S. interests, as terrorism (commonly associated with rogues), drug syndicates, and organized crime.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and National Security
Political Geography:: United States and America

57389. Contested State and Competitive State: Managing the Economy in A Democratic Taiwan

Author:: Xiaoming Huang
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: An assertive and effective state is seen as instrumental in Asian development. This study, focusing on the post-Cold War Taiwan, investigates the changed nature of the polity and, at the same time, the persistent manipulation of market forces by the government, and explains why the state is still a preferred and capable institution in an environment of democratic politics and market economy and even more so in Taiwan; and how the new state activism should be understood in relation to its earlier form in the controlled politics and corporatist society of the Cold War and what it says abut the emergent political economy in East Asia.
Political Geography:: East Asia

57390. Domestic Politics and International Relations in Trade Policymaking: The United States and Japan and the Gatt Uruguay Round Agriculture Negotiations

Author:: Christopher C. Meyerson
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: This paper is circulated for discussion and comment only and should not be quoted without permission of the author. Linked to American efforts to achieve trade liberalization through trade negotiations has been the recognition of the need not only to improve American trade policymaking processes, but also to analyze more effectively other countries' trade policymaking processes. In order to address these needs, this paper, which is a summary of my Columbia University Political Science dissertation, develops a contextual two-level game approach that can be used to analyze trade policymaking.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, America, East Asia, and Colombia

57391. The Political Economy of Energy Taxes, OECD 1973-1995: The Role of Political Institutions, Public Opinion and Ideology (A Pre-Test)

Author:: Svetlana Valerie Morozova
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: The paper presents a theoretical cross-national study of energy taxation, concentrating on the heavy fuel oil tax. It theoretically investigates the effects that public opinion, institutional corporatism and left-wing ideology may have on the cross-national variance in manufacturing energy taxes, controlling for the plausible influence of budget deficits, energy import-dependency and deindustrialization. It is hypothesized that in more corporatist nations public opinion supportive of energy conservation, in combination with the Left-wing ideology of governing legislative coalition, will lead to higher energy taxes. Deindustrialization, proxied by the declining employment and output value in/of energy-intensive industries is believed to be responsible for a certain share of energy tax variance in the OECD countries. Finally, it is argued that energy import-dependency brings affects national manufacturing energy taxes.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Politics

57392. Research on the Effectiveness of International Environmental Regimes: A Review of the State of the Art

Author:: Detlef F. Sprinz
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: This paper reviews the current state of research on the effect of international environmental regimes. In particular, the various concepts of regime effectiveness and methods chosen to establish causal regime effects are compared, followed by a summary of the empirical findings on the degree of regime effectiveness and the explanation of its variation. Subsequently, a range of research challenges is outlined which needs to be addressed in order to make substantive progress, esp. in assessing international regimes over longer time horizons. The paper concludes with lessons which the study of the effect of international environmental regimes offers for international political economy.
Topic:: Environment, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy

57393. Conflict-Cooperation for Interstate and Intrastate Interactions: An Expansion of the Goldstein Scale

Author:: J. Craig Jenkins, Charles Lewis Taylor, Joe Bond, Doug Bond, and Zeynep Benderlioglu Kuzucu
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: This paper presents the current state of our project to expand and to replicate Goldstein's Conflict-Cooperation Scale for WEIS Event Data using a Delphi technique and focusing on intrastate as well as interstate interactions. We report here the results of a pilot study conducted with the assistance of a small expert panel. Our intention is to take advantage of a larger and more diverse set of judges representing the governmental, national security, commercial and academic communities while controlling for major demographic characteristics. In our Integrated Data for Event Analysis (IDEA) approach, classic WEIS categories are supplemented with verb cues drawn from the World Handbook and other interaction event taxonomies. Panelists are asked to rank these event categories, with regard to contention-accommodation, coercion-altruism, and physical violence as well as to overall conflict-cooperation. No a priori assumptions are made with regard to the three hypothesized dimensions and their fit or placement within the conceptual space of conflict and cooperation. Interrelationships will be sought empirically. This expansion of the Goldstein scale will be a useful tool in the analysis of conflict and cooperation in international and intra-national political interactions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Cooperation

57394. Unveiling Human Rights: A Postcolonial Feminist Analysis of Women, Veiling, Human Rights and Western Geopolitical Discourse

Author:: Jessica L. Urban
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: The contributions of feminist scholarship to International Relations have exposed gender bias in the field and have provided inroads toward the internationalization of women's human rights. Nevertheless, non-Western women's bodies continue as an important site for the construction of Western geopolitical discourse. Western discourse on Islam represents Muslim societies as inherently violent and backwards with Muslim men as irrational victimizers of passive Muslim women. The veil epitomizes this oppression. Subsequently, this discourse justifies Western intervention into Muslim countries.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Islam

57395. Ideas Toolkit: The Role of Culture in the Transboundary Air Pollution Issue in Northeast Asia

Author:: Kenneth E. Wilkening
Publication Date:: 02-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Studies Association
Abstract:: This paper outlines a general approach for analyzing the role of culture in international environmental policymaking. It draws on work in anthropology and foreign policy analysis. As a first step in investigating the role of culture in international environmental policy, culture needs to be viewed as a “toolkit of environmental ideas.” The second step is to delimit broad definitions of culture to a more workable forms. Three forms are offered (following Hudson 1997a): culture as organization of environmental meaning, environmental shared-value preferences, and templates for environmental action. The third step is to answer three basic questions relative to the specific definition of culture employed: who draws what environmentally-related ideas from the ideas toolkit, how are these ideas employed in the political arena, and how do these ideas, originally drawn upon for political purposes, change and ultimately end up changing the set of environmentally-related ideas in the toolkit. In the political arena the ideas are assumed to be embodied in a “discourse.” The terminology of discourse and the body of theory built up around it is then used as a vehicle for examining the role of culture and cultural change in international environmental policymaking. A rough and preliminary attempt is made to provide a concrete example of the above approach in relation to the role of culture in the transboundary air pollution issue in Northeast Asia.
Topic:: International Relations, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:: Israel and Northeast Asia

57396. Observations on The Township People's Congress Elections in Chongqing January 5-15, 1999 and Cooperative Activities with the Ministry of Civil Affairs August 1, 1998-January 15, 1999

Publication Date:: 03-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: This report describes in detail The Carter Center's activities in China from July 1998 to January 1999 with a focus on the observation of China's village and township elections and recommendations to improve the quality of those elections. The report is divided into two parts. Part I is a report on the Center's observation of township elections in Chongqing. Part II covers the Center's activities with respect to village elections in cooperation with the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA ).
Topic:: Civil Society, Democratization, and International Organization
Political Geography:: China

57397. Some Reflections on Three Mile Island

Author:: Dick Thornburgh
Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Clarke Forum for Contemporary Issues
Abstract:: On the evening of March 28, 1979 America experienced the first, and worst, nuclear power plant accident in its history. The crisis began when a valve opened, unnoticed, allowing coolant water to escape from the plant's new Unit 2 reactor. Following a series of technical and human failures, temperatures within the unit rose to more than 5,000 degrees, causing the fueling core to begin melting. During the next tension-packed days, scientists scrambled to prevent a meltdown while public officials, including Governor Dick Thornburgh and President Jimmy Carter, attempted to calm public fears. In spite of these efforts, thousands of residents fled to emergency shelters or left the state, driven by rumors of an imminent CHINA SYNDROME. In the end, only one layer of the containment structure was compromised and the accident never reached the proportions of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. The accident nonetheless resulted in the release of some radiation, the quantity and effects of which are still debated.
Topic:: Energy Policy and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: United States and Island

57398. Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Tactical Battlefield Communications

Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: At the outset of this study, the Task Force observed that there was no such thing as “just” tactical communications. Rather, it saw requirements for conducting military operations in two major theaters of war as well as for conducting a wide variety of other missions. It also saw emerging requirements for a telecommunication infrastructure to support rapid force projection, early entry, reachback/split-base, and high mobility operations. Furthermore, Joint Vision 2010 (JV2010) assumed information superiority to be necessary for dominant maneuver, precision engagement, full dimensional protection and focused logistics. All these factors have led our Military Services to express a need for a fully integrated, strategic/tactical, voice/data/information telecommunications infrastructure rather than merely “tactical” communications. This infrastructure must bring post-camp-station information services to deployed forces and, conversely, bring information from our deployed forces to the continental United States (CONUS) or to other locations geographically distant from areas of operations.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

57399. Buck Rogers or Rock Throwers?

Publication Date:: 10-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: About 150 participants, including an international gathering of experts, examined whether and how technology may be leading to a paradigm shift in the nature and conduct of warfare, a shift that has been generally categorized as a "revolution in military affairs" (RMA).They concluded: The United States is the far—and—away leader in this drive. In fact, the United States is the only country intent on achieving a high technology RMA. No country is likely to match the United States in the broad—based technological sophistication of its military capabilitiesor even to try. US successes in developing RMA capabilities will drive potential adversaries toward asymmetric responses including weapons of mass destruction and information warfare. Some countries probably would be able to pose serious operational and strategic challenges to the United States by acquiring military technologies and capabilities that were in their eyes, "good enough." Also, countries can exploit "sidewise" technologies—old by US standards but still new to many other countries—to pose significant security threats and complicate US military operations. These technologies, if employed in a "novel" operational manner rather than high-end technologies, could drive development of the next RMA. Participants believe that—of the countries considered for discussion—China, Russia, India, and Australia have the greatest potential to achieve an RMA, should they decide to pursue the option.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, International Political Economy, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, and Australia

57400. Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015

Publication Date:: 09-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: The worldwide ballistic missile proliferation problem has continued to evolve during the past year. The proliferation of technology and components continues. The capabilities of the missiles in the countries seeking to acquire them are growing, a fact underscored by North Korea's launch of the Taepo Dong-1 in August 1998. The number of missiles in these countries is also increasing. Medium- and short-range ballistic missile systems, particularly if armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) warheads, already pose a significant, threat to US interests, military forces, and allies overseas. We have seen increased trade and cooperation among countries that have been recipients of missile technologies from others. Finally, some countries continue to work toward longer-range systems, including ICBMs.
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: United States and North Korea

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS