Political Geography: - CIAO Search Results

57101. Economic Voting in Korean Elections after Democratization

Author:: Hyeon-Woo Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Many factors influence the electoral results. One of them in the western countries is the economic condition. Whether they are personal or national economic conditions, the importance of economic factors in elections cannot be ignored. This paper focuses on economic voting and investigates whether economic voting worked in the Korean elections after 1987. It is generally accepted that Korean democratization was achieved in 1987. Before that year, democratization was the prevailing issue in elections because many Koreans still thought that the government was an authoritarian regime. Though the opposition parties insisted political democracy as first priority and urgent task required for Korea to accomplish, the ruling parties emphasized efficient and fast economic development led by ruling elites.
Political Geography:: Korea

57102. The Global Community of Overseas Koreans: The Chinese Koreans and the Korean Americans A Vision for the Future

Author:: Chong-Wook Chung
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: I feel deeply honored to be invited to this annual meeting of the International Council on Korean Studies and to deliver a keynote speech on overseas Koreans. I would like to express my profound gratitude to Professor I lpyong Kim, President of the Council, and others who worked so hard to make this timely and important annual meeting a success. Before I start, let me make some preliminary remarks. First, I do not believe I can speak on behalf of the government of Korea. I left the government two years ago to return to the academic community. Second, I do not consider myself, either as a scholar or as a former government official, an expert on the subject of overseas Koreans. The best claim I can make in this connection is the fact that while I was serving as the senior secretary for national security and foreign policy for the President for two years in 1993 and 1994, my responsibilities included the affairs of overseas Koreans.
Political Geography:: China, America, and Korea

57103. Offering Behavior of Korean Presbyterian Church Members: A Comparative Analysis with African American and Hispanic Groups

Author:: Kwang Chung Kim and Shin Kim
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: A church as an organization is a normative and an ideological institution. In America, it is a voluntary organization as well. Just like any other similar organization, a church needs a financial resource for its operation and goal achievement. Without it, a church is not able to operate or survive. Thus, developing and maintaining a system of financial resource acquisition and allocation is the indispensable prerequisite for a church. As a voluntary association, a church's financial resource is heavily derived from voluntary donations of its members. Although church members can confer their financial support to their church in various ways, the major portion of a church's financial resource comes from its members' regular offerings at worship services. This study is the first attempt to analyze empirically the regular offerings of Korean Presbyterian church members in a comparison with those of African American and Hispanic Presbyterians.
Political Geography:: Africa, America, and Korea

57104. An Analysis of Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Variations in Types of Voluntary Associations in the Korean American Community

Author:: Eui Hang Shin
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: Knoke asserts that "a minimal definition of a voluntary association is a formally organized named group, most of whose members are not financially recompensed for their participation." As Sills notes, all non-state, common-purpose organizations with voluntary memberships may be considered voluntary associations - organizations whose existence is dependent upon freedom of association. A review of the literature, however, reveals that substantial variations exist in the definition of voluntary associations. For example, previous studies of voluntary associations differ with regard to the inclusion or exclusion of such organizations as labor unions, churches, business and trade associations, political parties, professional societies, and philanthropic groups. There is, nevertheless, a consensus that "the voluntary association is a nonprofit, non-government, private group which an individual joins by choice," and that voluntary associations are "sparetime, participatory associations" to which people belong without pay. Voluntary associations have offices filled through established procedures, periodic scheduled meetings, qualifying criteria for membership, and some formalized division of labor, although organizations do not necessarily exhibit all of these characteristics to the same degree.
Political Geography:: America and Korea

57105. Book Reviews: Myoung Chung Wilson, Korean Government Publications: An Introductory Guide.

Author:: Ilpyong J. Kim
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:: International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:: South Korea today has the eleventh largest economy in the world. Although recent setbacks placed a temporary brake on several decades of surging economic development, these obstacles have now been largely overcome. The Republic of Korea is proving once again that it has one of the most vibrant economies among advanced industrial countries. These gains have been accompanied by corollary advances in medicine, transportation, urban planning and agriculture, to name but a few areas of noteworthy development. In 1987 the country moved away from its authoritarian past and instituted a working democratic system. In short, the pace of change in the economy, in politics and in social life generally has been spectacular. It is entirely appropriate, therefore, that Korean achievements, as documented in a wide range of government publications, should now be made accessible, in English, to scholars, policy makers and the interested public. Korean Government Publications: An Introductory Guide is the first comprehensive English-language guide to this wealth of information, much of it published in both Korean and English. It is especially timely because of the recent upsurge in the number of government publications and because the mistrust of documents published under authoritarian regimes has dissipated with the advent of genuine democracy.
Political Geography:: South Korea and Korea

57106. Anti-Globalization Movements at the Cross-Roads

Author:: Raimo Väyrynen
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: Although it appears to be growing in strength and numbers, the anti-globalization protest movement is now at a cross-roads. The core of the anti-globalization movement, which is rooted in social justice and human rights, has been unable to control violent fringe groups. Furthermore, international economic agencies such as the World Bank and the IMF have been surprisingly responsive, expanding and accelerating their policies on debt relief and strengthening their focus on the mitigation of poverty. The protest movement thus faces the challenge of developing new instrumental goals for the next phase.
Topic:: Globalization, Human Rights, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Washington

57107. The European Union's New Crisis Management Capability

Author:: Raimo Väyrynen
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: To the surprise of most observers, the European Union is moving quickly toward the establishment of its own crisis management capability. In its June 1999 meeting in Cologne the European Council concluded that the Union must have "the capacity for autonomous action, backed up by credible military force, the means to decide to use them, and a readiness to do so, in order to respond to international crises without prejudice to actions by NATO." The Council pledged to develop an effective EU-led military crisis management capacity in which all EU members, both NATO and non-allied countries, would participate on an equal footing. The new force will perform the so-called Petersberg tasks: humanitarian and rescue operations, peacekeeping, and the use of combat forces in crisis management, including peacemaking.
Topic:: Security, NATO, and International Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

57108. Preventing a Nuclear Arms Race in South Asia

Author:: David Cortright and Samina Ahmed
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame
Abstract:: The United States must unequivocally demand that India and Pakistan join the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear weapon states. The United States should retain punitive sanctions which target Indian and Pakistani institutions and policymakers responsible for their nuclear weapons programs. Targeted incentives should be provided that seek to diminish internal support for nuclear weapons in India and Pakistan. The United States should fulfill its obligation under Article VI of the NPT to achieve global nuclear disarmament.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States and South Asia

57109. New Answers To Old Questions: Explaining The Slow Adoption Of Ring Spinning In Lancashire, 1880-1913

Author:: Timothy Leunig
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: This paper re-examines theories previously advanced to explain Lancashire's slow adoption of ring spinning. New cost estimates show that although additional transport costs and technical complementarities between certain types of machine reduced ring adoption rates, these supply side constraints were not dominant. Instead what mattered most were demand side factors. Lancashire produced far more fine yarns than other countries and that yarn was better spun on mules. Furthermore, Lancashire had a sizeable export yarn trade, a market again more suited to mule spinning. Low ring adoption rates were a positive response to demand patterns dominated by high quality goods.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United Kingdom

57110. The 'Labour Question' in Nineteenth Century Brazil: Railways, Export Agriculture and Labour Scarcity

Author:: Lucia Lamounier
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: This paper examines changing patterns of labour relations in nineteenth-century Brazil associated with the building of railways and expansion of export agriculture. It addresses the 1850s-1880s period, decades when the `labour question' became a pressing issue for contemporaries. The extinction of the trans-Atlantic slave trade in 1850 posed the problem of finding alternative supplies of labour at a time of increasing agro-export production. In 1852 effective action to start the building of railways was taken. As part of efforts to improve conditions in the sugar and coffee sectors, several concessions were approved. From the middle of the century through to the 1870s, the expansion of coffee cultivation and railway construction were closely inter-related phenomena in the southern provinces of Brazil and shaped the debate about labour. The 1870s was a key decade. First, these years witnessed a `railway mania' - a great fever of building new lines and branches in various regions of the country, especially in the new coffee districts. Second, concern about the labour question intensified with the approval in 1871 of the Rio Branco Law which provided for the gradual emancipation of slaves. From then until 1888, when slavery was finally abolished, several policies were implemented trying to solve the problem of labour supply and to set new patterns of labour relations. This involved the arrival of thousands of immigrants in the 1880s, imported with government aid, to support the near-continuous expansion of coffee cultivation.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

57111. Distribution Dynamics: Stratification, Polarization and Convergence Among OECD Economies, 1870-1992

Author:: Philip Epstein
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Since the 1980s the debate about economic convergence has dominated empirical work about the dynamics of growth. Economic historians have been attracted, in particular, by stories of club convergence. However, the analytical foundations of most of the work in this area have rested on linear, or more usually log-linear, regression analysis. Thus, the results tend to be dependent on a conditional average in which time is the dominant player. This is surprising as space, and issues of distribution, have long been important to both theorists and historians. A notable exception to the 'regression school' has been the work on distribution dynamics pioneered in a series of papers by Danny Quah (1993, 1996, 1997). He believes that only by considering the issues of growth and distribution simultaneously can we understand their underlying dynamics. He has argued, for example, that there is no simple causal relationship between the concepts of β-convergence and σ- convergence and that similar stories of global (or club) convergence may be driven by very different stories of individual economy mobility. This is an approach that should appeal to economic historians (both because it can encompass a rich diversity of individual economy experience and because it emphasises that same diversity). We hope to illustrate this by considering the experience of some of the leading OECD economies since 1870 within an explicit distribution dynamics framework.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United Kingdom

57112. Competition and Innovation in 1950's Britain

Author:: Stephen Broadberry and Nicholas Crafts
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: We find little support for the Schumpeterian hypothesis of a positive relationship between market power and innovation in 1950's Britain even though many economists and policymakers accepted it at the time. Price-fixing agreements were very widespread prior to the 1956 Restrictive Practices Act and they seem to have had adverse effects on costs and productivity. Competition policy appears to have been much too lenient but the productivity problems of British industry at this time are best viewed as arising largely from the difficulties of reaping the benefits of innovation rather than from a failure to innovate per se.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Britain and United Kingdom

57113. From Economic Convergence to Convergence in Affluence? Income Growth, Household Expenditure and the Rise of Mass Consumption in Britain and West Germany, 1950-1974

Author:: Peter Kramper
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The “Golden Age” of post-war European economic growth has witnessed extraordinary changes not only in the economic, but also in the social and cultural outlook of Western European societies. Eric Hobsbawm's statement that “[h]istorians of the twentieth century in the third millennium will probably see the century's major impact on history as the one made by and in this astonishing period” is perhaps a little bit too enthusiastic; but it shows that the “Great Boom” has come to be regarded as a key period on the road to the present-day Western world. It has transformed the countries of the West and has at the same time made them more similar to each other. No matter what European societies were in 1950 by 1973, they were all, in Galbraith's famous.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

57114. Market Integration in the North and Baltic Seas, 1500-1800

Author:: David Jacks
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Ever since the time of Adam Smith, the attribution to foreign trade of the ability to affect the wholesale transformation of the productive powers of an economy has remained a very powerful concept in both economics and economic history. At the heart of this interpretation is the observation that improvements in productivity are generated by the expansion of trade through the spreading of fixed costs and an increasing international division of labour.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom

57115. Development History

Author:: N.F.R. Crafts
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: This paper discusses some aspects of the changing relationship between the study of economic history and development economics. Forty years ago the subjects seemed to be quite closely linked in the sense that senior figures straddled both areas, the development history of the advanced countries was frequently studied with a view to deriving lessons for development policy and economic historians made big generalizations as to what these were. In the 1990s, things appear to have been very different. There is much less overlap between the fields of development and history, historians have largely retreated from the brash claims of the early postwar generation and less- developed countries have their own well-documented recent history from which to draw lessons. This state of affairs is clearly reflected in the most recent edition of Meier (1995) where the historical perspective on development is still derived largely from Gerschenkron and Rostow.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom

57116. Altruism and Imperialism: The Western Religious and Cultural Missionary Enterprise in the Middle East

Author:: Eleanor Doumato, Andrew Porter, Samir Khalaf, Reeva Simon, Elizabeth Thompson, Carolyn Goffman, Hans-Lukas Kieser, Jeremy Salt, Ruth Kark, Paul Sedra, Michael Zirinsky, Mahmoud Haddad, Linda Herrera, and Eleanor H. Tejirian
Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Middle East Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: The Western missionary enterprise in the Middle East, while in theory altruistic, has generally been considered part and parcel of Western imperialism and colonialism as it evolved in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. However, deconstruction of this enterprise reveals that it was by no means monolithic, nor was it necessarily directly related to or supportive of Western imperial ambitions. This project, of which a conference at the Rockefeller Foundation Conference Center in Bellagio, Italy, in August 2000 is a part, seeks to examine all aspects of the Western missionary enterprise in the Middle East, focusing on its political and social impact on the region as well as on its entanglement with the political and social currents of the Western countries from which it came. Furthermore, the premise of the project is that the missionary enterprise was also the forerunner of the activities of Western nongovernmental organizations in the region, setting the agenda and establishing the categories of these activities in areas including human rights, education, and economic development.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, Non-Governmental Organization, and Religion
Political Geography:: Middle East

57117. Institutional Challenges and Opportunities in Environmentally Sound Trade Expansion: A Review of the Global State of Affairs

Author:: Aaron Cosbey
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: This paper surveys some of the key trade-sustainable development issues likely to be addressed in the coming years at the multilateral level that may have implications for the Americas. The study looks further to opportunities and threats at the domestic level and recommends a number of ways in which sustainable development might be advanced, striving to achieve environmental improvement and improved development prospects North and South. Whether in the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), or other similar forums, these are the types of solutions that will pass the acid test of political acceptability.
Topic:: Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: America

57118. Moving Beyond Privatization in Latin America: The Government/Business Relationship

Author:: Robert Grosse
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: The outcomes of regulatory policies and regimes in Argentina, Chile, and Mexico since 1990 in the telecommunications, electric power, and banking sectors are explored in this paper. How should governments regulate these oligopolistic industries, once ownership of the sectors has been passed to private hands? How can governments manage these relationships successfully and see that the greatest benefits accrue to the country? What institutional structures can best handle the problems that arise in these situations? The paper addresses these questions and concludes that, while privatizations in these sectors have been predominantly positive in the 1990s, there is still considerable room for more competition.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: Latin America, Central America, and Mexico

57119. Making Sense of Environmental Security

Author:: Frank McNeil
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: The concept of environmental security—even after more than two decades of discussion—has no widely agreed-upon formulation. However, in the metaphor used by environmentalists, environmental security can be a “canary in the mine,” signaling conflicts within nations and across borders. While environmental insults may foster violence, conflicts short of war also impose high costs, wreaking damage to economies, to societal stability, to the effectiveness of political institutions, and to international cooperation. Recent examples of such conflicts and their costs can be seen in locales as diverse as the Western Hemisphere and Southeast Asia (for example, in Guatemala, the Philippines, Colombia, Indonesia, and Nicaragua's maritime and riparian disputes with Honduras and Costa Rica).
Topic:: Security, Development, Environment, and Political Economy
Political Geography:: Central America and Caribbean

57120. Transnational Organized Crime: The Caribbean Context

Author:: Anthony T. Bryan
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The North-South Center, University of Miami
Abstract:: Were it not for the illegitimate character of their actions, transnational criminals could be lauded as pioneers and visionaries in the age of globalization. They have adopted facilitative and exacting measures to remain competitive, fashioned an enviable organizational culture of efficiency and accountability, and maximized the opportunities provided by globalization. They have been able to innovate, expand, and flourish in a furiously changing international scenario and have done so while being relatively cloaked, so that there is an aura of mystery and ambiguity about their operations.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: Caribbean

57121. An Essay on Child Labor in Sub-Saharan Africa—A bargaining approach

Author:: Jens Chr.1 Andvig
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The separation of children from their families have a large number of social and economic aspects. At least the economic aspects are under-researched. At the point of transition of leaving their families somehow the children have to be considered as separate decisionmakers. This is the perspective I adopt in this essay. The question raised is whether poverty, changes in social norms or external shocks to the family system such as the AIDS epidemic, lead the children to prematurely fend for themselves in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, and Poverty
Political Geography:: Africa

57122. Security, integration and identity change

Author:: Pernille Rieker
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In this working paper Pernille Rieker attempts to contribute to a better understanding of both how the EU functions as a security system and what kind of impact the integration process has on national security identities. While security has always been the main reason behind the integration process, security and integration have usually been studied separately. Integration specialists have given more attention to economy than to security, and security experts have studied traditional security institutions and overlooked the EU. Rieker attempts to combine these two theoretical traditions by drawing on a combination of recent work on security communities and international socialisation. While the development in the Nordic countries will be used as brief examples in the final part of the paper, a more detailed analysis of these countries' security identities will follow in a forthcoming study.
Topic:: Security, Development, and Government

57123. Globalisation and industrial location: The impact of trade policy when geography matters

Author:: Arne Melchior
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The paper shows how industrial location and welfare depends on “most-favoured nation” (MFN) versus distance-related trade barriers, using a monopolistic competition model with regions located along a “Hotelling” line or on a square plain. Manufacturing production will cluster close to the periphery if transport costs are relatively high, but in central areas if MFN barriers are relatively high. The peripheries will be at a disadvantage, which increases when trade barriers are reduced. When countries or trading blocs are formed, a core-periphery pattern emerges within each of them. While lower transport costs create more centralisation within countries, lower MFN barriers between countries have the opposite effect.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

57124. Patterns of Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in Africa—A simple test of the new trade theory with multinationals

Author:: Lars C. Svindal and Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In this study, we present an empirical survey of the patterns of trade and FDI in Africa based on a sample of 28 countries and their transactions with the OECD countries. These patterns are used to test whether the predictions of the new trade theory with multinationals as described by Markusen and Venables (1995,1998) fit the development in Africa. The theory states that multinational production will gradually outgrow trade as countries converge in terms of income, yet our econometric study gives only week evidence supporting such a pattern. Alternative explanations are also investigated,and it is shown that trade barriers, geographical distance, income per capita and access to ocean explain much of the variation in trade and FDI in Africa.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: Africa

57125. Foreign Ownership, R, and Technology Sourcing

Author:: Leo A. Grünfeld
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This paper explores the relationship between domestic R and the inflow of foreign capital through foreign direct investment and foreign ownership. The idea that firms invest in a foreign country in order to more easily absorb the knowledge and technology of foreign firms is tested empirically using a unique firm level data set covering foreign ownership and R for all Norwegian firms over the period 1990 to 1996. The study gives no clear evidence supporting the existence of such a motive behind foreign ownership. On the other hand, the econometric study indicates that foreign investors may try to exploit their technological advantages in the Norwegian market. The results also show that the degree of foreign ownership is more volatile when firms are highly R intensive. We hypothesize that this is due to the fact that large R investments often result in large losses as well as gains to the firms.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology

57126. The Right Role for the IMF in Development

Author:: Nancy Birdsall, John W. Sewell, and Kevin Morrison
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Overseas Development Council
Abstract:: Horst Köhler faces immense challenges as the new Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). But no challenge is more crucial than making sure the IMF plays the right role in developing countries. Too often, it is not playing that role now. The IMF's activities in the developing world have grown radically. Today, much of its work goes beyond macroeconomic issues and crisis prevention and management, into deeper structural issues. And as a major provider of long-term development finance, it is significantly involved in efforts to reduce poverty. But the IMF lacks expertise in the wide-ranging policy and institutional complexities of development and poverty reduction. Its expertise lies in macroeconomic policy and restoring stability amid financial crises. Macroeconomics is the same for poor and rich countries alike, as IMF First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer has said. But much of what the IMF is involved in now is not macroeconomics. The Fund should focus on: short-term liquidity lending to all countries hit by macroeconomic crises; advising through policy dialogue; and collecting, assessing, and distributing information on countries with regard to macroeconomic policy and financial markets. While poor countries need access to the Fund's short-term lending and macroeconomic advice, the IMF should leave long-term development lending to the World Bank and to other lenders and donors expert in poverty reduction.
Topic:: Environment, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:: United States

57127. Reviewing U.S.-Nigeria Relations: New Links to Reinforce Democracy

Author:: Princeton Lyman and Linda Cotton
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Overseas Development Council
Abstract:: Emerging from 15 years of military rule, the Republic of Nigeria is struggling to build a stable, peaceful democratic nation from its 200 ethnic groups divided among 36 states. In May 1999, retired General Olusegun Obasanjo was elected President-a repeat performance of his earlier role as catalyst for democratic change. In 1979, Obasanjo presided over the only transition to civilian rule until now. His democratic instincts won him three years in jail under former President Sani Abacha's brutally repressive military regime.
Topic:: Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Nigeria

57128. Misplaced Charity Undermines Kosovo's Self-Reliance

Author:: Iain Guest
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Overseas Development Council
Abstract:: For ten years, the international community has sent large, expensive missions to rebuild war-torn societies-without considering their impact on local civil society. At a time when civil society is seen as a pillar of development, this is an alarming omission.
Topic:: NATO, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Kosovo

57129. International — Organic Pollutants

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Delegates from 122 countries recently concluded an international agreement restricting the use of persistent organic pollutants. The agreement marks an important step towards eliminating the use of highly toxic and long-lived chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment. However, the significance of the accord extends well beyond its subject area: negotiators managed to find compromises on several issues that have bedevilled other international environmental agreements.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Environment, and International Cooperation

57130. CIAO: Eastern Europe/EU — Transition Traps

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: There has been a large differential in foreign direct investment receipts between the front-runners in the Central European applicant countries and laggards. The accession process itself has exacerbated this bifurcation, raising questions over EU policy towards the applicants and the implications for the region's long-term stability. Accession prospects appear to induce virtuous cycles for the front-runners while potentially trapping the laggards. Moreover, the latter are faced with difficult choices between long-term EU conditionality and more immediate transition imperatives, which are not always compatible
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

57131. CIAO: Romania — Far-Right Ascendant

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Leftist Ion Iliescu and far-right leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor will contest the second round of the presidential election on December 10. Tudor has a real chance of defeating Iliescu. He came a strong second in the first round, owing to disgust with the outgoing coalition, a popular anti-corruption platform and a shift away from extremist rhetoric. The PRM is an unpredictable, potentially destructive force with links to the Ceausescu era and dubious security circles and, now, the ability to obstruct reforms in parliament. Iliescu's weak credentials on reform and minority questions may hinder his attempts to form a common front against Tudor.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Romania

57132. CIAO: United States — 'Plan Colombia'

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Congressional criticism of 'Plan Colombia's' military component, and the advent of a new administration in Washington, are likely to lead to a strategic review of US policy. The outcome may be a policy that is less military focused, more regionally oriented, and based on closer cooperation with other aid donors. It has become increasingly clear that Plan Colombia can only be implemented if the EU and its member states are prepared to increase their financial contribution. This will give the Europeans considerable leverage, and they are likely to use it to insist on a less militarised approach. However, even with a change in policy emphasis, the prospects of success will remain poor.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, Washington, and Colombia

57133. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:: Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

57134. CIAO: Ghana — Vulnerable Economy

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Government spending is increasing in the run-up to general elections next month and attempts to liberalise the cocoa trade appear half-hearted. The effectiveness of liberal economic reforms will be constrained as long as Ghana remains vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of a narrow range of exports. Moreover, anti-corruption measures will lose their bite if they are seen to be directed in part against the government's opponents.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

57135. CIAO: International — Organic Pollutants

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Delegates from 122 countries recently concluded an international agreement restricting the use of persistent organic pollutants. The agreement marks an important step towards eliminating the use of highly toxic and long-lived chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment. However, the significance of the accord extends well beyond its subject area: negotiators managed to find compromises on several issues that have bedevilled other international environmental agreements.
Topic:: Security and Environment
Political Geography:: Russia

57136. CIAO: China — Market Manipulation

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: A leaked Shanghai Stock Exchange report has detailed the extent of trading irregularities within China's domestic equity markets. In the primary market, a series of companies have falsified records on profits, assets and even entire businesses in order to publicly issue and list shares. In the secondary markets, insider trading, the spreading of false information, coordinated stock purchases, price ramping and sales of stocks by large institutional investors are common practice. The extent of trading irregularities reflects the government's preference for market growth over regulatory standardisation. This approach is undermining the CSRC's credibility. Unless regulatory practices are tightened, institutional investors will not have the maturing effect on markets and stabilising impact on prices the government seeks.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Markets
Political Geography:: China

57137. CIAO: US/China — Trade Relations

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: US Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and China's Prime Minister Zhu Rongji this month held talks in Beijing to discuss China's accession to the WTO. Beyond opening up commercial opportunities to US firms, the award of permanent normal trade relations status to China, and its prospective accession to the WTO, should in theory add predictability to the bilateral trade relationship.
Topic:: International Relations, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Beijing

57138. CIAO: Canada — Pre-Election Budget

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Finance Minister Paul Martin announced new tax reductions in his annual economic statement this week. The mini-budget is part of the Liberal government's preparations for a general election that is expected to be called later this week. In order to secure another majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals will need to maintain their popularity in Ontario and increase their support in Atlantic Canada. If the Liberals fail to regain their majority, they will probably rely on the support of New Democratic legislators. If this happens, the new government would place less emphasis on tax cuts and debt reduction, and more stress on spending, than would otherwise have been the case.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Canada

57139. Iran — Investor Inhibitions

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This week, the Majlis approved a government bill authorising immediate use of the 2000-01 budget surplus. The windfall surplus, largely the result of increased oil revenues, should amount to 6-10 billion dollars by the end of the fiscal year in March. It will certainly transform Iran's external finances, but its impact on the domestic economy will be less immediate, and it will do little to ease investor concerns. Khatami's efforts to attract greater foreign investment depend on reform of the judiciary and other key changes to the regulatory climate. In the meantime, continuing political turmoil will deter all but those investors prepared to take a long-term view of Iran's economic potential.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

57140. Mexico — Overheating Arguments

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 10-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The recommendation reflects a conflict between the bank and the finance ministry over whether or not the economy is overheating. Increasingly, the conflict is being fought in public circles after months of low-key clashes. The uncharacteristic rift between the monetary and fiscal authorities is likely to widen over the final two months of the Zedillo administration, as signs of overheating continue to accumulate. While pressure for a substantial fiscal adjustment is likely to be irresistible when Fox takes over on December 1, concerns are growing regarding his capacity to execute such a policy.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

57141. Nigeria — Rapacious Corruption

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Corruption deters foreign lending and investment. Except in the oil and gas sector, Nigeria's economic advantages are not sufficiently countervailing. The national reputation for corruption encourages further abuse since no one's reputation suffers through acting dishonesty. Despite reforming efforts, grand corruption is likely to persist because of the continuing large flows through official hands of unearned income from natural resources.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

57142. European Union — Sanctions against Austria lifted

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The decision last week to lift political sanctions against Austria came as a relief to both Vienna and most of the fourteen EU member states participating in the action. Imposed in protest at the inclusion in government of the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe), the sanctions had rapidly became a source of difficulty and embarrassment. Crucially, nobody had been clear about what the precise aims were, or in what circumstances the sanctions would be suspended: there was no exit strategy for either side.
Topic:: Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: Europe, Austria, and Vienna

57143. South Africa — Mbeki Leadership

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Although the transition from Nelson Mandela's to Thabo Mbeki's presidency has been marked by continued political stability and conservative economic management, Mbeki's political judgement is increasingly being questioned in several key policy areas. Unless Mbeki succeeds in allaying concerns about his leadership, the stability of South Africa's present political arrangements will be undermined.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

57144. International — Capital Flight

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Not all capital outflows from developing countries should be characterised as capital flight; some are simply the analogues of outward FDI and portfolio diversification in the more advanced economies. Nonetheless, a substantial proportion is classic flight capital, linked to tax evasion or criminal activity, and transferred abroad via misinvoicing and complex financial transactions. Capital flight leads to a significant loss of investment in the most affluent developing countries, and a crippling one in the poorest. However, staunching the flow is likely to prove extremely difficult. It will require greater economic stability and institutional certainty in the source countries, and more rigorous tax enforcement and cooperation in the destination states.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Third World

57145. Russia — Gore Strategy

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Vice-President Al Gore officially accepted the Democratic presidential nomination at the party's National Convention in Los Angeles on August 17. A continued deficit in the polls forced Gore to use the convention as a platform to consolidate his base vote. He also sought to differentiate himself from the Clinton presidency, despite the fact that he has adopted similar positions to the outgoing administration on many key issues. If Gore is to win in November, he must convince voters that the current expansion, and the benign political climate that it has fostered, would be imperilled by a Bush presidency.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

57146. United States — High-Tech Exports

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The White House has loosened export restrictions in a number of high-technology sectors, setting a trend which is likely to be followed by the next administration. Tight export controls on high-tech products have become an expensive luxury that the United States can no longer afford. The liberalisation of remaining controls is therefore set to continue, whatever the partisan composition of the next Congress and the next administration.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

57147. Russia — Intelligence Influence

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The recent increase in arrests on espionage charges and expansion of activity by Russia's security and intelligence agencies appears to be signalling a reversion to aggressive Cold War tactics. They are seeking to increase their political influence and appear to be testing the limits of the 'civilised' intelligence competition which has evolved in the last decade. While Moscow has the means and apparent will to intensify intelligence competition, its clumsy and outdated methods threaten the country's commercial interests and could harm broader foreign policy goals.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, and Cold War
Political Geography:: Russia

57148. United States — Bush Presidency

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 08-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: An analysis of Texas Governor George Bush's record as a modest tax cutter and education policy activist suggests that these issues would probably shape his policy preferences if he were elected president. A Bush White House would probably settle for smaller tax cuts than those the governor is currently proposing. It would also be likely to focus on achieving a series of moderately conservative education and crime reforms.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

57149. Lebanon — Border Deployment Doubts

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: United Nations peacekeeping forces are expected to deploy to the Lebanese-Israeli international border soon. Considerable diplomatic efforts have been required to win 'acceptance' of the border by Beirut and Tel Aviv, and thereby enable UN deployment to the area from which Israel withdrew nearly two months ago. The United Nations is likely to find it even more difficult to implement the other terms of its mandate.
Topic:: Security and United Nations
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

57150. International -- World Economic Propects

Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Official attention has shifted from the need to avert recession towards the problems of managing growth. There is some evidence that higher interest rates have begun to slow the expansion to a more sustainable pace in the Anglo-Saxon economies, but it remains unclear whether the principal central banks have done enough to bring demand growth back into line with sustainable increases in supply. The markets expect any further tightening to be limited, but the current position of the monetary authorities should probably be characterised as a pause in the tightening cycle, rather than the peak.
Topic:: Economics and Markets

57151. Mexico — Post-Election Challenges

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: In the initial burst of euphoria that has accompanied the end of virtual one-party rule in Mexico, the magnitude of the challenge facing the incoming government is in danger of being overlooked. For those concerned with furthering democracy, it is enough that former Coca-Cola executive Vicente Fox will become the country's first president from outside the Partido Revolucionario Institutional (PRI) in more than seven decades. Investors, who sent the peso and the Mexico City bourse soaring after Sunday's election, are just happy that a clear winner emerged and that the feared collapse of governability has apparently been avoided.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

57152. United States - Senate Prospects

Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: This year's Senate elections will be only modestly affected by the outcome of the presidential election. The Republicans currently hold a 55-45 seat advantage in the chamber, a margin that will be extremely difficult for the Democrats to overturn this November. The Democrats will therefore hope to gain three or four seats; a surge which would enable the party to launch a strong challenge to the Senate Republicans in 2002. Although more Republicans are seeking re-election this year, the Democrats are defending four of the five seats in which the incumbent senator is retiring (so-called 'open seats').
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and New York

57153. United States — Economic Propects

Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The US economy is experiencing its longest-ever recorded period of sustained growth. The current expansion, which began in March 1991, is the longest of the 32 which have been registered by the Bureau of Economic Analysis since 1854 and is now in its tenth year and 110th month. Moreover, since 1995, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of more than 4.25% -- a rate not experienced since the 1960s. The expansion is consistent with the changing pattern of business cycles, insofar as the average length of economic expansions has nearly doubled from about 2.5 years during 1900-53 to about 5 years in the second half of the century (while the average length of contractions has fallen to less than twelve months). However, even allowing for this transformation, the current expansion seems to be exceptional, both for its duration and its strength. The coincidence of a long and inflation-free expansion with the boom in information and communication technologies (ICT) has sparked a debate about their interdependence.
Topic:: Economics
Political Geography:: United States

57154. United States — Presidential Race

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: With the presidential primary season having ended this week, the race for the White House now heads for the party conventions. Since effectively securing the Republican nomination, Texas Governor George Bush has regained his poll lead over the de facto Democratic nominee, Vice-President Al Gore. If Bush retains a clear poll lead by the convention season, the current signs of apprehension amongst Democratic leaders will become more apparent. If Gore can more closely identify himself with the economy's exceptionally strong performance, he is perfectly capable of staging a full recovery and securing victory in November.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and China

57155. International — WTO Reform

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: WTO members are unlikely to reach agreement on radical changes, at least in the short term. At most they may conclude an accord which reaffirms both the principle of consensus and the need for Green Room meetings, and which gives the director-general a role (possibly informal) in ensuring that efficiency is balanced by other considerations. However, an agreement on institutional changes will have little impact on prospects for launching a new trade round. Such prospects will continue to depend on whether members can develop an agenda that all believe will serve their national interests.
Topic:: International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: United States

57156. OECD — Inflation Prospects

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Inflation has begun to accelerate throughout the OECD-area, mainly as a result of higher oil prices. The increase comes from a low base and official forecasts suggest that the price outlook is generally benign. However, a further tightening of monetary policy in order to contain inflation at these low levels is now probably the most important threat to asset market valuations and the continued expansion of the global economy. Product market liberalisation, globalisation and the advent of the internet have brought real and lasting changes in pricing behaviour that will not disappear with a global upturn. These trends have been reinforced by improvements in the operation, credibility and effectiveness of national monetary policies. Nevertheless, historical experience suggests that inflationary pressures could accelerate rapidly as the major economies enter their first period of coincident growth since 1988-90. The result is likely to be tighter monetary policy rather than permanently higher inflation and long-term interest rates.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Canada

57157. Northern Ireland — Ulster Prospects

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The political outlook in Northern Ireland has, at least in the short term, been transformed by the political document released by the British and Irish governments and the subsequent statement issued by the IRA. This involves the exchange of a detailed timetable towards the implementation of the Good Friday agreement — including reform of police and security arrangements in the province — for a commitment from the IRA that at least part of their weaponry can be subject to external inspection. This bargain is likely to be enough to permit devolution to be restored shortly. The Northern Ireland peace process has been at an impasse since the British government suspended the operation of devolved institutions on February 11. It did so because the IRA had offered no clear indication as to how it might initiate the process of arms decommissioning — a situation that left Ulster Unionist leader and First Minister David Trimble extremely exposed in his own party. The narrow margin by which Trimble was re-elected leader by the Ulster Unionist Council in March, and that body's further insistence that the proposed reform of Northern Ireland's police force — the Royal Ulster Constabulary — be diluted before devaluation was restored, appeared to plunge the peace process into a state of permafrost.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland

57158. Peru -- Flawed democracy

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Immediately following the first round, US pressure was influential in eliciting the delayed official announcement that Fujimori had failed to secure outright victory, and that he would have to contest a run-off against leading opposition contender Alejandro Toledo. However, from Toledo's point of view, the US pressure is likely to yield only limited benefits. While it may persuade Fujimori to ensure that the organisation of the second round is unimpeachable, or at least not too openly corrupt, it will not of itself end Fujimori's regime. On the contrary, it is likely to boost the Fujimori campaign by allowing the incumbent to appeal to strong nationalist sentiments in the Peruvian electorate.
Topic:: Democratization, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and South America

57159. International: Techno-Stock Troubles

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The current bubble in 'technology stocks' has led to official concern about over-enthusiasm by investors and the banking consequences of a sudden price collapse. The first signs of the long awaited shift emerged last week, as investors shifted from fashionable technology, media and telecoms (TMT) stock back into traditional 'old economy' blue chips. Capital flooding in from Europe and Japan to the United States has been attracted to booming markets led mostly by these stocks. The rest of the market (misleadingly known as the 'old economy') has risen comparatively little.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, and Europe

57160. United States -- Elian Endgame?

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Attorney General Janet Reno yesterday ordered the Miami-based extended family of Elian Gonzalez to hand him over to his Cuban father. Reno's actions are expected to bring an end to the custody drama surrounding Elian, who was brought to the United States after coastguards found him floating in the Atlantic Ocean after a failed attempt to escape from Cuba with his mother. Although superficially a dispute between the United States and Cuba, argument about the case has centred upon the demands of the Cuban-American community in Florida, a section of the electorate of sufficient importance to oblige Vice-President Al Gore to make his most public break with the administration in which he serves.
Topic:: International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Washington, and Cuba

57161. International -- Problematic Piracy

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 06-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: A recent meeting of Asian countries on how to combat increasingly violent pirates in the region follows landmark prosecutions of those involve, but years of half-hearted action by coastal states. The International Chamber of Commerce has already called on ASEAN trade bloc nations to join China and Japan in signing the 1988 UN Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation (the Rome convention). It would allow pirates caught in seas beyond national maritime jurisdictions to be prosecuted as international criminals. However, 14 of the 16 countries at the Japanese-sponsored talks in Singapore last March have yet to sign. Findings will be presented to a high-level international conference between regional maritime security agencies and government shipping bodies in Tokyo this month.
Topic:: Security, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Asia, and Singapore

57162. Northern Ireland: Impasse

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 05-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The Ulster Unionist Council re-elected David Trimble as its leader on Saturday but by an unexpectedly narrow majority of 57% to 43%. The party also voted to retain the name and insignia of the Royal Ulster Constabulary — the predominantly Protestant police force in the province — a precondition, along with an IRA commitment to decommissioning, a precondition for restructuring an all-party executive that was suspended two months ago. These are impractical terms for negotiations. The Good Friday agreement is now functionally defunct.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: Europe and Ireland

57163. United States - Election Politics

Author:: Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush officially secured the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations respectively yesterday. Both candidates have won the nominations exceptionally speedily and the ensuing presidential campaign promises to be one of the longest ever. Providing that the economy continues to perform strongly, Gore should be considered the modest favourite to win November's ballot.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

57164. Asia Pacific -- Reform Politics

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: While the region has now emerged from recession, economic reforms remain incomplete and politically contentious. There is a risk that complacency and intransigence will weaken the momentum behind reforms before their full benefits can be felt. For countries not immediately enveloped by it, the East Asian crisis laid bare the risks associated with postponing economic reform without necessarily producing change.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:: East Asia

57165. Northern Ireland--Cooperation Ceasefire

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The IRA announced last night that it was suspending all cooperation with the International Commission on Decommissioning and withdrawing all proposals that it had previously placed before it. Tony Blair, the UK prime minister, and Bertie Ahern, his Irish counterpart, will meet today amid a crisis atmosphere. While there is no immediate prospect of an outright return to violence by the IRA, the Good Friday agreement, if not the peace process itself, is at risk.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, and North Ireland

57166. Colombia -- Peace Process

Author:: first last
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The recent advances in the peace process have brought the possibility of a peace settlement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia closer. International mediation and support will be key for the successful completion of the process and the implementation of any peace agreements. The United States has expressed its interest in supporting peace, but considerations will continue to be dominated by anti-drugs and security issues. European cooperation will also be important. Despite the progress made so far, the pacification of the country remains a distant goal.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and South America

57167. External versus domestic Vs Coastal versus Interior

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 02-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: China's relatively rapid growth cannot mask the fundamental problems the economy faces. The government will be forced to continue to apply stimulus to the economy, but the sustainability of this approach is limited. The positive impact of eventual WTO membership will take time to be felt, while accession–related reforms and increased foreign competition will prove disruptive. The country has a limited time in which to prepare.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China

57168. East Europe—Bullish Markets

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Gone are the days when the large investment banks defined their global reach in terms of the emerging markets of Eastern Europe. Indeed, the emerging markets label is fading away in favour of new 'global' buzzwords. However, just one year on from the emerging market crisis that threatened the bull of the world financial market, is this rethinking of the emerging markets premature?
Topic:: Economics and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

57169. Russia—Duma Dust-up

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Russia's new State Duma ended its first day's work in an uproar on January 18. An unlikely alliance of pro-Communist and pro-Kremlin parties was in control of the chamber's agenda, while an equally improbable alliance of smaller factions vowed not to participate in the running of the chamber until their demands for a greater say were met. This unpromising start presents acting President Vladimir Putin with both a short-term boost and a fresh political challenge. It also highlights one of Boris Yeltsin's more surprising political legacies.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

57170. United Kingdom—Euro Issues

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: The formal position of the United Kingdom government that it favours entry into the European single currency 'in principle', but subject to five economic tests and popular sanction in a referendum, masks increasingly deep splits among senior ministers as to what exactly this formula means in terms of practical timing. A profound disagreement between the treasury and the foreign office, personified and led by their respective politicians, exists and is likely to intensify both in the run-up to the next UK election and throughout the next parliamentary term.
Topic:: Government, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

57171. United States—Primary Politics

Author:: Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxford Analytica
Abstract:: Later this month, the US presidential primary season will commence. The opening contests—the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary—provide the best opportunities for either former Democratic senator Bill Bradley or Republican Senator John McCain and Republican Steve Forbes to prevent the present front-runners, Vice-President Al Gore and Texas Governor George Bush, from securing the Democratic and Republican nominations respectively. If Gore or Bush win clear victories in both these early polls, they will be extremely difficult to defeat in later contests. Both of the leading candidates are currently encountering more difficulties in New Hampshire than in Iowa.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States

57172. Matters of Faith: Religion in American Public Life

Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: A report from the Assembly of the same name, convened in Harriman, New York in March 2000.

57173. The Public Life of the Arts in America

Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Art and entertainment constitute America's second-largest export. Most Americans--96 percent, to be exact--are somehow involved in the arts, whether as audience participants, hobbyists, or via broadcast, recording, video, or the Internet. The contribution of the arts to the U.S. economy is stunning: the nonprofit arts industry alone contributes over 857 billion dollars per year, and American artists enjoy world-class status. Despite its size, quality, and economic impact, the arts community is not articulate about how to serve the public interest, and few citizens have an appreciation of the many public policies that influence American arts and culture. The contributors to this volume argue that support for the arts and culture is good economic and trade policy and contributes to the quality of life and community, while it sustains the creativity of American artists and organizations.

57174. Reweaving the Social Tapestry: Public Policies for American Families

Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The American Assembly on "Reweaving the Social Tapestry: Public Policies for American Families" convened on September 21-24, 2000 in Kansas City, Missouri. Participants concluded that families can play a vital role in bringing America to greater unity. Yet even the definition of "family" can be a source of great division. The group's recommendations encouraged business and government initiatives designed to support this core societal structure.

57175. Security Risks and Instabilities in Southeastern Europe: Recommended Strategies to the EU in the Process of Differentiated Integration of the Region by the Union

Author:: Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:: 11-2000
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: The chain of events and developments in Southeastern Europe during the 1990s provoked increasingly sophisticated political reactions, political approaches and longer-term strategies towards the region on the part of the EU. The firm requirement for ethnic tolerance and respect of human rights constitutes one end of the range of EU positions concerning Southeastern Europe. The gradual beginning of the process of integration of some countries from the region in the Union constitutes the other end. At the end of the 1990s, these positions gravitated towards two principles – regionality and conditionality. These principles are partly overlapping and mutually reinforcing, but to some extent also contradictory. The institutional arrangements of these two principles by the EU are identified with the Stability Pact (July 1999) for the principle of regionality, on the one hand, and with the accession negotiations and the Stabilisation and Association Process for the principle of conditionality, on the other hand.
Topic:: Security, European Union, Regional Integration, and Risk
Political Geography:: Europe and Southeast Europe

57176. The Emergence of a New Geopolitical Region in Eurasia: The Volga-Urals Region and its Implications for Bulgarian Foreign and Security Policy

Author:: Nicolay Pavlov and Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:: 12-2000
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:: The application of geopolitical methodological instruments to the study of Bulgarian foreign and security policy issues has two fundamental causes: first, for many decades this has been a neglected intellectual instrument of international political research – for political and ideological reasons – and, second, the end of the Cold War necessitated an improvement of the conceptual and the analytical tools of security studies in Europe and the world. The traditional approach of ISIS to search ways of improving the security situation by conceptualizing events and processes in a novel way has focused the efforts of its researchers on security problems that cover a broad strategic zone: the Balkans – the Black Sea – the Transcaucasus – the Caspian Sea. Continued cooling – for more than ten years –of bilateral Bulgarian-Russian relations is conceived as one of the problems of this broader strategic and systemically linked zone. The geopolitical and geostrategic model – imposed on Bulgaria by the Cold War divide, the country’s membership in the Warsaw Pact and the thorough domination by the USSR – ended and was replaced by a different reality. The geopolitical projection of the ideological and socio-economic divide was no longer an applicable paradigm. At the same time the balance of power and the geostrategic approaches of understanding the evolving international environment proved to be inadequate after the end of the 1980s of the 20th Century. Russian, and to a lesser extent Bulgarian, politicians lost the orientation and the perspective of the bilateral links. This led to a dramatic diminishing of the meaning of bilateral relations in the general foreign-political engagements of the two countries. Bulgaria had undertaken a clear orientation to market economy, democracy and rule of law – a philosophic course, which logically prioritized the attraction of the European Union as the efficient integration nucleus of Europe, and of NATO – the symbol of stability and guaranteed prosperity in the broader Euro-Atlantic space. Though NATO was no longer perceived in the Cold War antagonistic pattern by Russia, and the very substance of the Alliance intensively adapted to the post-Cold War realities, Bulgaria’s political and security choice of joining the Euro-Atlantic community of developed democratic nations was negatively assessed by the Russian elite.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and Bulgaria

57177. Making the Grade 2000: Second Annual Review of Fissile Material Control Efforts

Author:: Kevin O'Neill
Publication Date:: 04-2000
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Science and International Security
Abstract:: A little over a year ago, ISIS initiated an annual review of fissile material controls covering a broad spectrum of initiatives. To do so, 19 separate initiatives were identified and assessed. Based on this assessment, grades were awarded on a scale of A, B, C, D, and F, where an “A” is excellent and an “F” is failing. Numerically, an “A” corresponds to a numerical grade of four, and an “F” to zero. The results of the first review were disappointing. Only 12 of the 19 initiatives received a passing grade of “C” or higher. The average grade of the initiatives was a “C”-showing an unfortunate level of mediocrity across the fissile material control agenda. In ISIS’s 2000 review, we found that the outlook is worse today than it was a year ago. Rather than make progress during the past 12 months, the overall fissile material control agenda fared poorly. The average grade of the identified initiatives fell from a “C” to a “C-minus.” This overall finding is borne out if one looks at the individual grades assigned to each of the 19 identified initiatives. ISIS judged that five initiatives remained essentially static, nine received lower grades, and five initiatives received higher grades.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, and Fissile Material
Political Geography:: Russia and United States of America

57178. Building a Partnership, Turkey and the European Union

Author:: David Barchard
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: This paper is an attempt to identify some of the main practical issues and themes involved in Turkey's accession process in the run-up to the appearance of the Accession Partnership document in early November 2000. It is also an attempt to explore ways of bridging the gap between Turkish and EU attitudes on the political issues that have to be resolved before full membership negotiations can be started.
Topic:: International Relations, European Union, Partnerships, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

57179. Effective National Security Advising: A Most Dubious Precedent

Author:: Arthur Schlesinger Jr.
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: ARTHUR SCHLESINGER, JR. argues that the Eisenhower heavily-layered national security apparatus did not produce a coherent foreign policy and did not save the administration from gross errors. He believes that future presidents would benefit from a more flexible approach--such as those of FDR and JFK--to the conduct of foreign affairs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, and American Presidency
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

57180. Effective National Security Advising: Recovering the Eisenhower Legacy

Author:: Fred I. Greenstein and Richard H. Immerman
Publication Date:: 09-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: FRED I. GREENSTEIN and RICHARD H. IMMERMAN provide an account of the impressively rigorous process of national security policy planning in the Eisenhower presidency. They commend it as a model for the next administration.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, History, and American Presidency
Political Geography:: United States of America

57181. Economic Insecurity, Prejudicial Stereotypes, and Public Opinion on Immigration Policy

Author:: Peter Burns and James G. Gimpel
Publication Date:: 07-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: PETER BURNS and JAMES G. GIMPEL examine mass attitudes toward immigration policy in the United States, asking whether widespread restrictionist sentiment is stirred more by economic insecurity, by negative ethnic stereotypes, or by some combination of the two. For some, prejudice is rooted in economic insecurity, but prejudice also has roots that are quite independent of economic fears. Anti-immigrant sentiment will not disappear simply because economic conditions improve.
Topic:: Immigration, Public Opinion, Economic Security, and Stereotypes
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

57182. Chinese Nationalism and Its International Orientations

Author:: Suisheng Zhao
Publication Date:: 03-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: SUISHENG ZHAO explores whether or not Chinese nationalism is a source of international aggression by examining its different perspectives, orientations, and characteristics. He finds that Chinese nationalism has been a situational matter, more reactive than proactive in international affairs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Politics, and International Affairs
Political Geography:: China and Asia

57183. Getting into the Black: Race, Wealth, and Public Policy

Author:: Dalton Conley
Publication Date:: 01-2000
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Political Science Quarterly
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: DALTON CONLEY examines the causes and consequences of the black-white asset gap in the United States. He argues that it is wealth, more than any other measure of socio-economic well being, that captures the nature of racial inequality in the post-civil rights era. Conley discusses policy implications that may be used to address such "equity inequity."
Topic:: Race, Inequality, Public Policy, and Wealth
Political Geography:: United States of America

57184. Coalition Formation and the Regime Divide in Central Europe

Author:: Anna Grzymała-Busse
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:: The study examines the formation of coalitions in East Central Europe after the democratic transitions of 1989. Existing explanations of coalition formations, which focus on either office-seeking and minimum wmning considerations, or on policy-seeking and spatial ideological convergence. However, they fail to account for the coalition patterns in the new democracies of East Central Europe. Instead, these parties' flrst goal is to develop clear and consistent reputations. To that end, they will form coalitions exclusively within the two camps of the regime divide: that is, amongst parties stemming from the former communist parties, and those with roots in the former opposition to the communist regimes. The two corollaries are that defectors are punished at unusually high rates, and the communist party successors seek, rather than are sought for, coalitions. This model explains 85% of the coalitions that formed in the region after 1989. The study then examines the communist successor parties, and how their efforts illustrate these dynamics .
Topic:: Coalition, Post-Communism, and Democratic Transitions
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

57185. Still Dead After All These Years: Interpreting the Failure of General Equilibrium Theory

Author:: Frank Ackerman
Publication Date:: 11-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: For years after the Spanish dictator actually died, the mock television newscast on “Saturday Night Live” was periodically interrupted with a “news flash” informing viewers that “General Franco is still dead!” This served both to satirize the breathlessly urgent style of television news reporting, and to suggest that after many decades of taking an absolute ruler for granted, the world needed more than one reminder that he was no longer alive and well. Much the same is true for general equilibrium theory. In the course of its long decades of rule over the discipline of economics, general equilibrium became established as the fundamental framework for theoretical discourse. Its influence continues to spread in policy applications, with the growing use of computable general equilibrium models. It has successfully colonized much of macroeconomics, with the insistence on the derivation of rigorous microfoundations for macro models and theories. General equilibrium theory is widely cited in a normative context, often in textbooks or semitechnical discussion, as providing the rigorous theoretical version of Adam Smith’s invisible hand and demonstrating the desirable properties of a competitive economy.
Topic:: Economics and General Equilibrium Theory
Political Geography:: Global Focus

57186. The Tobin Tax: How to Make it Real. Towards a Socially Responsible and Democratic System of Global Governance

Author:: Heikki Patomäki
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: In the 1970's James Tobin proposed a low rate tax on financial transactions of currencies. This tax would make many speculative movements unprofitable and the financial system less volatile and sensitive to daily political news and anticipation of economic policy changes. Consequently, it would create space for more autonomous economic policies of states.
Topic:: Economics, Government, International Political Economy, and United Nations

57187. Dealing with the Past: The Case of Estonia

Author:: Hanna Järä
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: An essential challenge facing a society in transition stems from the legacy of the former power elite. A compelling need to restore moral order by the assessment of the abdication of the rule of law and violations of human rights requires an opportunity to face the past and its consequences. The process of dealing with the past includes a strong commitment to revealing the truth and redressing the past. The critical question around the issue is what is considered a proper reaction towards leaders and perpetrators who were responsible for oppressive activities and other violations of human rights, many of whom remain part of the new political structures or hold important positions in public life. The central tension is between the politics of compromise, the essence of which is to leave the past intact, and the radical notion of justice. Thus, the key dilemma facing the emerging democracies is whether past violations should be forgotten or confronted, forgiven or prosecuted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Estonia

57188. Coming Home or Moving Home? "Westernising" Narratives in Finnish Foreign Policy and the Re-interpretation of Past Identities

Author:: Chris Browning
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Since the end of the Cold War it is widely accepted that Finnish foreign policy has oriented increasingly towards the 'West', the most pertinent and concrete example of which, to date, has been accession to the EU. Implicit in many commentaries is the assumption that this orientation is a natural phenomenon, the natural culmination of an effervescent Finnish 'Western' cultural identity. Whilst the rhetorical style perhaps differs espousers of this view draw on Herderian and Hegelian assumptions, essentially arguing that after the unfortunate interruption and deviation from its true path occasioned by the Cold War the Finnish 'national spirit' is now back on its rightful historical and linear course to national fulfilment and blossoming. Looking into the nation's history such discourses see Finland's cultural and political roots as lying in the West and hence posit that with the break-up of the Soviet Union Finland is returning to these organic origins in Western civilisation, with all the effects for foreign policy such a 'Western' identity will entail. This is what we may term the 'Westernising' narrative of current debates about Finnish identity and Finnish foreign policy. On this basis the Finnish Cold War foreign policy of neutrality is characterised, either as having been a total aberration and betrayal of the Finnish 'Western' Self, or, and perhaps more commonly, as having been the best possible option available to the Finnish elite at the time: constrained by the dictates of power, agile Finnish political leaders were able to manoeuvre the Finnish ship of state through the various pitfalls and traps waiting to beguile them in the stormy waters of great power Cold War politics. Now free of such power dictates these current 'Westernising' discourses are attempting to push Finnish foreign policy towards the West, legitimising such a move to the Finnish public and the wider international audience on the grounds of Finland's claimed historical Western identity. To note the title of this panel discussion, “Defining New Identities Between East and West', for Westernising discourses there is no between about it. As an organically Western state why would Finland want to be between East and West any longer? On this basis the Finnish neutrality of the Cold War period merely disguised the true Finnish identity, a ruse so that Finland could in the future once more live as its true self when conditions once again permitted.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Political Economy, and Nationalism
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

57189. The EU and the prospects of Common Defence

Author:: Hanna Ojanen
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: When thinking of the overall image of the European Union, one would not first come to visualise soldiers with the twelve starlets on blue background on their uniforms. During its 40 years' existence, the Community/Union has consolidated itself in quite other fields: in agriculture, trade, competition policy. Its own portrait as the 'ever closer Union' has gained resemblance with reality, notably through the economic and monetary union and cooperation in justice and home affairs. Common foreign and security policy, then, has from the very beginning been a central aspiration in the process of integration. Many would, however, treat such a goal as some sort of idealism, a wish, and the recurrent formulas about the Union that should speak with one voice in international affairs as some sort of a mantra of the Europeanist faith. Even a cursory acquaintance with the CFSP shows the divergence between the member countries' views when it comes to essential questions of foreign policy and tends to convince that if such a policy was ever to become a reality, it would at least not imply real common defence or a transformation of the Union into a military alliance - particularly so since following the division of labour between the different international organisations, there are others than the Union to take care of military cooperation.
Topic:: Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

57190. Blazing New Trails: Villagers' Committee Elections in P. R. China

Author:: Linda Jakobson
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: Though the Chinese Communist Party clings to its monopoly on power and fully intends to avoid “walking down the road of the Soviet Union,” it is implementing revolutionary political reform in the countryside. For the past decade, multi-candidate elections, in which candidates need not be members of the Communist Party, have been held in hundreds of thousands of Chinese villages. Abdicating its prerogative to appoint village chiefs, the Party has conceded that elected ones are more effective. The grassroots-level governance reform (jiceng zhengquan gaige) not only empowers ordinary citizens and encourages them to take part in the decision-making process. It also institutionalizes the concepts of accountability and transparency.
Topic:: Democratization and Government
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Soviet Union

57191. Crisis management the Finnish way – A state of the art report on practice and research

Author:: Raimo Lintonen
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: The purpose of this report is to analyse the threat perceptions, organisational contexts, practices as well as the “reflectiveness” of crisis management in Finland. The emphasis is on the overall situation, not on concrete historical crises. It is part of the groundwork for a project on the subject at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). The report is also an outgrowth of the participation of the FIIA since March 1999 in the evolving co-operation amongst European academics and practitioners in the field of crisis management.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

57192. The Korean Peninsula: Is Kim Dae-jung's Pursuit of a Korean Confederation Realistic?

Author:: Linda Jakobson
Publication Date:: 01-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:: In the spring of 1999 Swiri-fever swept South Korea. Millions flocked to see the first domestic action film considered up to international standards. “Swiri,” a slick Hollywood-style spy thriller, revolves around the complex issue of Korean unification that lies at the heart of Korea's future. Since the inauguration of President Kim Dae-jung in February 1998, South Korea has debated unification more openly than ever before.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

57193. Heterogeneity and Evolution of Expectations: a Model of Currency Crisis

Author:: Jasmina Arifovic and Paul Masson
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: A model of a portfolio allocation between mature and emerging markets is simulated with heterogeneous expectations, imitation, and experimentation. Solutions produce periodic crises. The predictions of the model are compared to a representative-agent, rational expectations model with multiple equilibria.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

57194. Emissions Trading, Capital Flows and the Kyoto Protocol

Author:: Martin Ross, Robert Shackleton, Peter Wilcoxen, and Warwick J. McKibbin
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: We use an econometrically estimated multi-region, multi-sector general equilibrium model of the world economy to examine the effects of the tradable emissions permit system proposed in the 1997 Kyoto protocol, under various assumptions about that extent of international permit trading. We focus, in particular, on the effects of the system on international trade and capital flows. Our results suggest that consideration of these flows significantly affects estimates of the domestic effects of the emissions mitigation policy, compared with analyses that ignore international capital flows.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance

57195. The Crisis in Asia: An Empirical Assessment

Author:: Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: The economies of South East Asia and Korea have been shaken by a financial and economic crisis that has enveloped the region since mid 1997. There are competing explanations for the cause of the crisis however most commentators would agree that a major shock that impacted on the countries has been a dramatic increase in the perceived risks of investing in these economies. This paper explores the impact of a re-evaluation of the risk in the Asian economies focussing on the differential real consequences of a temporary versus more permanent rise in risk. It contributes to our understanding of the possible consequences of the Asia crisis by applying a global simulation model that captures both the flow of goods as well as international capital flows between countries. The real impacts on the Asian economies of a rise in risk perceptions in the model are large and consistent with observed adjustment. However the spillovers to the rest of the world are relatively small because the loss in export demand that accompanies the crisis in Asia is offset by a fall in long term interest rates as capital flows out of Asia into the non-Asian OECD economies. Thus strong domestic demand in economies such as the US induced by the general equilibrium effects of the reallocation of financial capital can more than offset the consequences of lower export growth. The analysis also highlights the impacts on global trade balances reflecting the movements of global capital and points to both potential problems and lesson for policymakers over the coming years.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:: China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

57196. The Global Economic Impacts of Trade and Financial Reform in China

Author:: Warwick McKibbin and KK Tang
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Despite the setbacks from the recent Asian currency crisis, the ascendancy of Asia as an economic centre of world economic activity is likely to continue into the 21st century. A key issue that will shape the role of Asia, and indeed the shape of the world economy in the 21st century, is the economic development of China. To date China has successfully weathered the currency storm in Asia and continues on a program of economic reform. If anything, the problems of Japan and Korea provide powerful lessons for other countries undergoing rapid economic growth and structural change. These lessons include the importance of a well developed financial sector with lending and investment decisions based on market signals rather than government directives. Whether China can further integrate smoothly into global markets and sustain the fast growth of the last few decades will be a crucial development in the world economy. In this paper, we explore the impacts of continued Chinese economic reform with a focus on the role of international financial flows both in the adjustment within China as well as in the transmission of Chinese reforms to the rest of the world.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:: China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

57197. Regional and Multilateral Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Trade, Investment and Welfare

Author:: Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: This paper explores the impact on economies of trade liberalization under alternative regional and multilateral arrangements: unilateral liberalization; liberalization as part of the ASEAN regional grouping; liberalization as part of the APEC regional grouping; or liberalization as part of a multilateral trade liberalization regime. The paper is based on a Dynamic Intertemporal General Equilibrium model (DIGEM) called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model. It is shown that the long run gains from a country's own liberalization tend to be large relative to the gains from other countries liberalizing although this varies across countries. It is also shown that there is a significant difference between the effects on GDP (production location) and the effects on consumption per capita of the alternative liberalization approaches across countries. The timing of liberalization is also shown to matter. With open capital markets the gains from credibly announced trade liberalization are realized before the reforms are put in place because there is a rise in global investment which raises the global capital stock. In addition there is a reallocation of capital via financial market adjustment. This paper also demonstrates that for some economies, there can be short run adjustment costs to trade liberalization because resources cannot be instantly reallocated across sectors in an economy. These adjustment costs from own liberalization can be reduced if more countries also liberalize. The nature of the dynamic adjustment suggests that other macroeconomic policies may play an important role during the early period of phased-in trade liberalization.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:: China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

57198. Rapid Economic Growth in China: Implications for the World Economy

Author:: Warwick McKibbin and Yiping Huang
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the past decade and its potential for strong growth into the foreseeable future have caused anxieties in the rest of the world. Some commentators see Chinese growth wholly in terms of competition for trade and investment opportunities with other developing economies and a major cause of structural adjustments in the advanced industrialized economies. In particular there have been warnings of severe consequences for international agricultural markets. In this paper we use a dynamic general equilibrium model called the G-CUBED model (developed by McKibbin and Wilcoxen) to explore possible future paths of the Chinese economy based on projections of population growth, sectoral productivity growth, energy efficiency and technical change in the Chinese economy. This model captures not only the composition of the direct trade impacts of developments in the Chinese economy but also the implications of the endogenous flows of financial capital on macroeconomic adjustment in the world economy. The study focuses on the period from 1990 to 2020. Rather than being a problem for the world economy, we find strong growth in China is beneficial for the world economy directly through raising world incomes.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:: China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

57199. The Transmission of Productivity and Investment Shocks in the Asia Pacific Region

Author:: Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: An important aspect of macroeconomic interdependence in the Asia Pacific region is the adjustment of trade and current account balances in response to changes in saving and investment rates in individual economies. Greater trade flows, reliance on imported intermediate goods as well as more integrated capital markets imply that shifts in private or public saving and investment rates in an economy in the region can potentially have large impacts on other economies. This paper explores the quantitative nature of these linkages by focusing on a number of shocks within the context of a new dynamic multi-sector global model called the Asia-Pacific G-Cubed Model (AP-GCUBED). This model integrates sectoral adjustment with macroeconomic interdependence including explicit treatment of capital flows to explore the implications of a variety of productivity and investment shocks in the Asia Pacific Region. The first shock considered is a permanent decline in private investment in Japan. The second shock is a temporary rise in total factor productivity growth in China. The fall in Japanese investment is found to have a significant effect on trade flows and financial flows in the region whereas the rise in Chinese productivity has a quite different effect on the region.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and Globalization
Political Geography:: China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

57200. North Korea: How Much Reform and Whose Characteristics?

Author:: Heather Smith
Publication Date:: 12-1999
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: This paper is the first of a three part project on economic reform on the Korean Peninsula. In this first paper, I focus on the question which has been subject to considerable recent debate, namely whether collapse of North Korea is imminent. In accessing this question the paper discusses the three structural bottlenecks now thought to be severely constraining the North Korean economy following a series of external shocks in the late 1980s, food shortages, energy constraints and a limited capacity to earn foreign exchange. Much speculation has focused on the deterioration in the food economy and that a prolongation of current food shortages will see North Korea collapse. One contribution of this paper lies in its attempt to analyze North Korean agricultural production and food consumption patterns using data made available by North Korea to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization. Several anomalies are found between this data and recent World Food Program assessments of food conditions and estimates of nutritional requirements which suggest caution in drawing a too deterministic link between current food shortages and collapse. The paper then discusses the role of international and regional players in prolonging North Korea's economic survival. In particular, the terms under which North Korea signed onto the 1994 Agreed Framework, a return to favorable trading terms with China, and North Korea's attempts aimed at expanding economic ties with the international community, could sustain North Korea at subsistence levels for the next 5 years at least. If collapse is not imminent in the short to medium term, then the policy implications that emerge from such a scenario are clear: that the international community will need to continue to pursue a policy approach of managing tension reduction and the integration of North Korea into the international community. Whether the North Korea regime will embrace fundamental reforms needed to ensure longer term survival remains difficult to judge. In the final section of the paper, several reasons are advanced as to why the window of opportunity for North Korea to embrace reform is now greater than at any time in the past.
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: Israel and East Asia

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS