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57561. Pipeline Gas In Northeast Asia

Author:
Keun-Wook Paik and Jae-Yong Choi
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The lack of indigenous oil and gas resources in Northeast Asia is a real obstacle to the region's economic development, and the region has paid the price. The importance of the introduction of pipeline gas into Northeast Asia lies not only in diversifying supply sources but also in providing price leverage for the region's consumers. Despite many implementation problems, the Sino-Russian agreement on East Siberian gas and pipeline development laid a firm basis for the introduction of pipeline gas into the region, and this could fundamentally affect the region's energy supply balance in the coming decades. The introduction of pipeline gas will open a new era of multilateral cooperation in the region. It is now no longer a matter of whether but when and how this gas will be introduced. Northeast Asia — comprising China, Russian Asia (Siberia and the Far East), Korea and Japan — forms the world's biggest market for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Out of world trade totalling just over 100 bcm in 1996, 63.8 bcm was imported by Japan and 13 bcm by Korea, together representing 75% of the world total. Given that China is set to import both LNG and pipeline gas in the next decade, there will be further rapid growth in the region's demand for gas. Many questions about the scale of expansion, the introduction of pipeline gas as a part of the expansion, the role of natural gas in power generation, and the establishment of multilateral cooperation for the pipeline development remain unresolved. Nevertheless, recent announcements by CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) of two contracts signed with the Kazakstan government for the development of oilfields for transport via pipeline to western China are a strong signal that the Northeast Asian region is set to witness the introduction of long-distance pipeline oil. In the longer term, these developments may be eclipsed by the development of pipeline gas. This paper briefly reviews the potential gas and oil supply sources to the Northeast Asian region and recent developments, together with the problems that need to be tackled for early implementation of pipeline gas. After presenting the results of a unique survey on the views of both Japanese and Korean companies on the Northeast Asian natural gas market and the development of long-distance pipelines, the paper discusses the implications of such developments.
Topic:
Development and Energy Policy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, East Asia, and Northeast Asia

57562. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1998

Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion, which has become the second longest on record. The coincident indicators show aggregate activity rising at a more moderate pace than GDP's rise of 5.6 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. There is no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

57563. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1998

Publication Date:
11-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy with bright prospects in 1999. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising between 2.5 and 3 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The economy shows no evidence of cyclical imbalance.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

57564. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1998

Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators show the 4th quarter of 1998 starting with a relatively slow pace of growth (compared to the coincident index's rise of rise 3.0 percent and GDP's rise of 3.7 percent, annualized, during the first 3 quarters of 1998. The leading indicators show no serious impediments to moderate, or even strong, economic growth in 1999. There is almost no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

57565. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1998

Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
Both the leading and coincident indexes held steady, while the lagging index fell 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a slowing, but still healthy economy. The coincident indicators suggest the expansion advanced in the 2 to 2.5 percent range in the 3rd quarter of 1998, compared with constant- dollar GDP showing a 3.3 percent increase (annualized). It is premature to predict a recession based on the leading indicators. The lagging indicators have moderated, giving less reason to worry that cyclical imbalances will soon jeopardize the economy's stability.lances could jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

57566. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1998

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a 2.5 to 3.0 percent pace (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The lagging indicators suggest a need to be concerned that cyclical imbalances could jeopardize the economy's stability in 1999.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

57567. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1998

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a moderating economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at faster pace than the latest GDP figures, but slower than the 4th quarter of 1997 and the 1st quarter of 1998. (The coincident index rose 3.1 percent while GDP rose 1.4 percent, annualized, in the 2nd quarter of 1998). A two-month decline in the leading indicators signals slower growth ahead and only a slight risk of a contraction. The lagging indicators show slight evidence of cyclical imbalances that could jeopardize the economyÕs stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

57568. The Yen, the Yuan, and the Asian Currency Crisis Changing Fortune between Japan and China

Author:
C.H. Kwan
Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The currency crisis that started in Thailand in the summer of 1997 was followed by repercussions on the currencies of neighboring countries, culminating in a crisis infecting most countries in East Asia. Japan and China, which have developed strong ties with the rest of Asia through trade and investment, have not been exempted from this contagion. This paper looks at the latest currency crisis in Asia from the perspectives of these two regional giants.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Thailand

57569. Variation of Clinical Judgment in Cases of Hysterectomy in R.O.C, Japan, England, and the United States

Author:
Yumiko Nishimura, Naohiro Mitsutake, Michael McCullough, Barry Uphoff, Annie Woo, and Chang-Yao Hsieh
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Hysterectomy is the most common non-pregnancy-related major surgery performed on women in the United States. Close to 600,000 women in the United States undergo the procedure each year, with annual costs exceeding $5 billion. By age 60, more than one- third of women in the United States have had a hysterectomy.
Topic:
Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Israel, East Asia, and England

57570. Japan's China Perceptions and its Policies in the Alliance with the United States

Author:
Hideo Sato
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The People's Republic of China is now a major economic and military actor in the international relations of the Asia Pacific region, and thus we cannot afford to ignore China in reviewing the U.S.-Japan alliance. The Chinese economy has been growing rapidly over the past decade and a half, at an annual rate of about 10 percent, and it is expected to sustain a similar pattern of growth for the foreseeable future. Beijing's defense spending has also been increasing every year at a double-digit level for some time. Consequently, China's domestic and foreign policies will from now on significantly influence the course of international relations in this region, and perhaps elsewhere as well.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, and Asia

57571. Chinese Military Modernization and Asian Security

Author:
Michael Swaine
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
I'll speak on the question of Chinese military defense modernization and its implications for the Asian security environment. I'll try to keep my remarks at a level where we can talk about broader issues and concepts, and the implications of all this for regional evolution in the security environment, U.S. security interests, U.S.-Japan relations, etc. I want to cover four different areas in my remarks.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Asia

57572. The Origins and Evolution of the Korean-American Alliance: A Japanese Perspective

Author:
Koji Murata
Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper examines the importance of the Korean-American alliance for Japan from a historical perspective. The U.S.-Japan alliance is important for the security of South Korea because it provides logistic support for the U.S. activities on the Korean peninsula. This is obvious if we look into the reasons why the Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation were revised in September 1997. At the same time, the U.S.-ROK alliance is also important for the security of Japan because it functions as a buffer or shield for Japan. Bounded on the north by China and Russia, and only thirty miles from the closest Japanese island, the Korean peninsula is the fulcrum where the major powers' interests in Asia converge. Tokyo is about one hour from Seoul by jet aircraft.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Asia, Tokyo, Korea, and Island

57573. East Asian Urbanization: Patterns, Problems, and Prospects

Author:
Mike Douglass
Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Two interwoven processes—urbanization and globalization—circumscribe contemporary social, political, and economic transformations taking place in East Asia. While governments, businesses, and communities are caught up in one of the most intensive and condensed processes of urbanization in world history, the forces propelling much of the expansion of cities and urban networks now operate on an international plane. Urban- oriented investments in production for world markets, global intra-firm commodity trade within transnational corporate networks, and the hyper-circulation of finance capital are fundamental features of what has been summarized as the “local-global” context of development. Urbanization and globalization have become interdependent and mutually reinforcing: the shaping of urban form and the dominant activities within a given city reflect its mode of linkage with globalized circuits of capital; at the same time, these circuits require a structuring of the built environment to create the physical geography of international urban networks needed for real-time decisionmaking on a global scale.
Topic:
Security
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

57574. China's Post-Deng Military Leadership: New Faces, New Trends

Author:
David Shambaugh
Publication Date:
06-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
It is a pleasure to be here at Stanford to discuss China's new military leadership, and to share some preliminary findings from my research on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). One key feature of the new leadership in China today, following the passing of patriarch Deng Xiaoping, are the new faces to be found in the military. The PLA High Command today (see Appendix) is almost entirely new. There has been almost total turnover of the top twenty to thirty military officers in China during the last three years. This includes all the commanders, deputy commanders, and political commissars in all seven military region commands; the General Staff, Logistics, and Political Departments; the two major educational institutions of the PLA, the National Defense University and the Academy of Military Sciences; the Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense and its successor body the general Armaments Department, and other bodies. The Central Military Commission itself has seen more than half of its membership turn over in the last few years. Only the top echelon of the Second Artillery, China's ballistic missile forces, has gone relatively untouched. I anticipate much more personnel turnover and organizational reform in the next few years as the PLA proceeds with its policy of downsizing, upgrading, and streamlining its force structure.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

57575. The Korean Currency Crisis: What Can We Learn From It?

Author:
Sang-Mok Suh
Publication Date:
05-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Just like many other crises, the Korean currency crisis came suddenly. In mid–November 1997, headlines in the Korean press consisted mostly of presidential election stories. At that time the presidential race was very close; the Grand National Party candidate, Lee Hoi–Chang, was making a dramatic comeback, while the National Congress for New Politics candidate, Kim Dae–jung, was making his best effort to maintain his narrow lead. Thus, when President Kim Young Sam announced on November 19 his decision to fire key economic policy–makers on the grounds of mismanaging the economy, most Koreans were surprised at the news and questioned the president's motivation. Two days later they were completely shocked to learn that the Korean government was asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency standby loans because the Korean foreign reserve level was very low at $7.3 billion and most foreign financial institutions were unwilling to roll over their short–term loans to Korea.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Asia

57576. Benefits and Burdens: The Politically Dominated Economics of U.S. Alliances with Japan and Korea

Author:
Charles Wolf and Michele Zanini
Publication Date:
04-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Alliances are organizations between or among independent entities that concert to produce “collective goods” for the mutual benefit of alliance members. The statement applies whether the alliances are between or among countries, corporations, universities, research centers, or other institutions. Of course, the nature of the collective goods, as well as the membership in the collectivity, differs across these cases. That the goods (or benefits) are “collective” means that their availability to one alliance member (or their production by any member) implies their availability to the other members of the alliance.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Defense Policy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Israel, East Asia, and Korea

57577. The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification

Author:
Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Li-gang Liu
Publication Date:
03-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Existing estimates of the costs of unification are inadequate for a number of reasons. In this paper we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calculate South Korean and total peninsular income streams under a variety of unification (and non–unification) scenarios. We find that there are scenarios in which the present discounted value of South Korean income is higher with unification than without it. Although lower income groups in South Korea experience reduced incomes under this scenario, with redistribution of the gains, everyone can be made better off. Indeed, this scenario, which involves relatively low levels of South Korean private investment in the North together with relatively high levels of North–South migration, is also the one which generates the highest level of total peninsular income as well. The latter point is critical in that it suggests that there is no necessary conflict between the economic interests of North and South Koreans after unification.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Organization, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel, East Asia, and Korea

57578. China's Accession to and Implementation of International Environmental Accords 1978 - 95

Author:
Michel Oksenberg and Elizabeth Economy
Publication Date:
02-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China's performance in numerous environmental areas—emission of greenhouse gases, use of ozone-depleting substances, reduction of sulphur dioxide emissions, or exploitation of fishing grounds in the western Pacific—will help determine the success of various global and regional environmental protection efforts. And as the World Bank's recent study Clear Water, Blue Skies: China's Environment in the New Century documents, the quality of life within China will be greatly affected by efforts to protect air, water, and soil, all of which are under heavy assault.
Topic:
Environment and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
China and Asia

57579. Integration on the Basis of Strength: China's Impact on East Asian Security

Author:
Wu Xinbo
Publication Date:
02-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
China is perhaps the most important variable in East Asian security, not only because of its growing power but also because of the great uncertainty over its future. Therefore, to assess China's impact on regional security, one question should be tackled first: what will China look like in the future? There are three different schools of thought concerning China's future: the “implosion" school holds that China, unable to cope with a wide array of social, economic, and political challenges created by its rapid economic growth, will follow in the footsteps of the former Soviet Union and “implode" the “expansion" school argues that as China gradually builds up its material strength, Beijing will wield its weight and seek to establish hegemony in the region; and the “integration" school believes that as China's economy further merges with the world economy, Beijing's internal and external behaviors will slowly but inevitably conform to international norms, and China will become a more responsible and more cooperative member of the world community.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, East Asia, Asia, and Soviet Union

57580. Energy and Security in East Asia

Author:
Michael May
Publication Date:
01-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This study examines the likely security consequences of the continued growth in energy consumption in East Asia, and in particular: The dimensions of that growth which are likely to have an effect on international security. The dependencies and insecurities created by that continued growth. The policy guidance that can be derived for the United States from a review of those dependencies and insecurities.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Energy Policy, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Israel and East Asia