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131. Diplomacy Meets Paradiplomacy: Unpacking Central Government Responses through Evidence from Turkey’s Paradiplomac

Author:
Esra Kaya Erdoğan and Emrah Atar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This study examines the central government’s response to the paradiplomacy of sub-state actors through an analysis of the Turkish case, using a qualitative approach. As part of this research, a total of twelve face-to-face or virtual interviews were conducted with the representatives from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Marmara Municipalities Union, and academics between June 2023 and November 2023. It views paradiplomacy as an outcome of the ongoing trend to localize diplomacy and aims to identify varying central government responses to paradiplomacy. These responses are analyzed using a three-fold categorization: positive, negative and mixed. The characteristics of each category explored in the context of the Turkish case. The study suggests that, despite the central government’s opportunistic approach to paradiplomacy, its response has shown a cyclical tendency. The central government’s stance on paradiplomacy is therefore complex and politically driven. It fluctuates along a broad spectrum, ranging from direct support to outright exclusion. This reflects the shifting political dynamics in Turkey.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Governance, Municipalities, and Sub-state Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

132. The European Court of Human Rights Framework of the Property Issue in Cyprus: An Evaluation of the Immovable Property Commission

Author:
Perçem Arman and Özde Bayraktar
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Despite being physically divided in 1974, no peace agreement has been made in Cyprus since then. Amongst the issues awaiting solution, perhaps the most difficult one is the property issue. Problems related to property rights have been brought to the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) on several occasions. This study focuses on the Immovable Property Commission (IPC), which was established in accordance with the jurisprudence of the ECtHR. In a frozen conflict environment, the ECtHR, although not a transitional justice mechanism for resolving human rights violations in armed conflicts, occasionally plays an effective role in pressuring national authorities to repair the destructive effects of conflict periods. This study assesses the effectiveness of the IPC’s role in addressing property issues in general and within this specific context.
Topic:
Displacement, Transitional Justice, Property, Compensation, and European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR)
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

133. Lost in Definition: How Confusion over Agentic AI Risks Undermining U.S. Governance Frameworks

Author:
Yasir Atalan, Ian Reynolds, and Benjamin Jensen
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
“Agentic AI” is an umbrella term that covers a wide range of systems from basic chat assistants to complex autonomous workflows. This ambiguity risks undermining U.S. governance frameworks and creating procurement vulnerabilities that expose organizations to mismatched capabilities and unaccounted risks. If the same vague word is applied to a helpful chatbot and a combat-ready swarm, the United States could accidentally deploy a system with the power to start an operation before that system understands the context or risks involved. The danger is not that the AI lacks intelligence, but that it lacks judgment; a system might be smart enough to execute a task perfectly yet fail to realize that a sudden change in the local situation makes that task a catastrophic mistake. This is particularly critical in national security environments where decisionmaking stakes are high. There is a need for clearer context charts for AI workflows so that commanders know exactly which tasks a machine can handle alone and exactly which who is responsible if the machine makes a mistake. The U.S. government must establish a relational, capability-based taxonomy that specifies where systems sit in workflows, what authorities they exercise, and how accountability is distributed. This approach shifts acquisition and oversight from a narrow focus on technical features to understanding broad organizational impact and ensuring evaluation matches real operational risk.
Topic:
Governance, Cybersecurity, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, Economic Security, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

134. The Rise of “Watt’s Law” and Why Power Could Put a Ceiling on American Innovation

Author:
Maryam Cope
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
A foundational advantage of the U.S. digital economy is weakening. For decades, Moore’s Law and Dennard scaling delivered steady improvements in computing performance while keeping energy costs manageable and underpinning productivity growth, industrial competitiveness, and national security capabilities. AI workloads upend these assumptions. Modern AI systems depend on massive parallelism, continuous data movement, and sustained operation across large clusters, making energy utilization and availability more important than peak chip performance. This shift defines the emergence of “Watt’s Law.” Under Watt’s Law, AI capability scales with available power growth multiplied by system-wide innovation driven by full-stack optimization across hardware, software, networking, and operations. This can be measured by growth in tokens per joule of energy. Power is now the significant binding constraint on AI progress. National competitive advantage increasingly depends on who can most efficiently convert electricity into sustained, real-world AI output, rather than who builds the smallest transistors. The implications are strategic. Failure to adapt to a power-constrained scaling regime risks forfeiting a key source of productivity growth and long-term advantage in AI-enabled economic and national security capabilities. It also has implications for U.S. partnerships with energy-rich allies.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

135. China’s Solar Industry Is in Upheaval—The Effects Will Be Global

Author:
Michael Davidson and Sandy Qian
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Over the past few years, China’s solar industry has entered a period of intense upheaval. Price wars and margin compression have forced industry leaders—including Jinko Solar, Trina Solar, and JA Solar—to report significant losses. These firms, along with LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei—the industry’s top five—slashed their workforce by over 30 percent in 2024. The market is facing industry consolidation and exits not seen in over a decade, as over 40 smaller firms have filed for bankruptcy, been acquired, or exited the market. Chinese regulators are accelerating this process, which will have ripple effects across global solar markets. Several critical questions arise: Does this phase erode China’s leadership in solar, or entrench it further? Is it a window for others to close the gap, or a prelude to deeper market displacement? And when the current wave of capacity consolidation settles, what will the next global competitive order look like? The answer is already emerging. Rather than opening space for rivals to catch up, the current shocks are forging a more resilient Chinese solar core. By embedding deeper into global value chains and securing a technological lead, China is effectively reshaping the industry’s future trajectory to its own long-term advantage.
Topic:
Sustainability, Industry, Solar Power, and Energy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

136. Practical H-1B Reforms to Serve U.S. Economic Interests

Author:
Philip Luck and Thibault Denamiel
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
In its first year, the second Trump administration has implemented substantial changes to the H-1B immigration program. Some of these changes will create significant economic harm; others have the potential to improve efficiency and support industrial policy goals, with further adjustments. In September 2025, the administration announced a $100,000 fee on new petitions for H-1B visas outside of the United States, a likely prohibitive increase in costs for many firms seeking to hire skilled immigrant labor. In parallel, the administration released a final rule last December to increase the visa lottery system’s allocation efficiency. The administration’s lottery reform would benefit from additional changes to better distribute the economic dividends of skilled immigration to underserved geographies and priority sectors. Such policy changes are critically important to U.S. competitiveness, given the program’s track record of success in attracting global talent and driving economic growth. To strengthen the United States’ technological advantage, innovation ecosystem, and economic prosperity, policymakers should look to expand the H-1B program and reform its incentives while limiting costly new barriers to its use.
Topic:
Reform, Innovation, Economic Security, Immigration Policy, and H-1B Visa
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

137. Energy Infrastructure and the Defense Industrial Base

Author:
Joseph Majkut, Alexander Palmer, and Raj Sawhney
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Can the energy infrastructure serving the U.S. defense industrial base sustain production under mobilization? This paper focuses on three scenarios for mobilization consistent with baseline production, defense buildup, and peer war. Using embodied energy methods, the research team estimates that war production rates would require 17.4 petajoules (PJ) of energy annually, a relatively small amount nationally, but one that would need to be concentrated at facilities in already stressed grid regions. Facilities for the defense-critical production of steel, aluminum, titanium, and semiconductors are clustered in regions already facing eroding reserve margins and surging data center demands. Natural gas deliverability constraints compound these risks, as key facilities depend on gas both as direct fuel and as the primary source of regional electricity generation. This paper recommends extending defense-critical electric infrastructure designations to industrial nodes, creating dedicated permitting and finance pathways to facilitate energy production, and integrating energy resilience into supply chain risk assessments.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Sustainability, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Global Focus

138. Using Minerals and Energy to Rebuild the U.S.-South Africa Relationship

Author:
Gracelin Baskaran
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
The United States is quietly losing access to the minerals that underpin its defense systems, semiconductor manufacturing, and reindustrialization agenda—not through geopolitical confrontation, but through commercial neglect. South Africa is the dominant U.S. supplier of platinum group metals, chromium, manganese, and military-grade vanadium, and no allied nation comes close to matching its combination of mineral wealth, processing capacity, and technical expertise. Yet rising energy costs and crumbling infrastructure are pushing South Africa’s processing sector toward closure, and without intervention, that capacity will continue migrating to China by default. As political tensions between Washington and Pretoria have intensified, it is worth remembering what is actually at stake: a supply relationship built over more than a century that would be extraordinarily costly to lose and nearly impossible to replace.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Trade, Economic Security, Semiconductors, Energy, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

139. Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine: Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power

Author:
Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power. Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century. Meanwhile, Russia’s war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, slowing growth of 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms to help drive long-term productivity.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, Intelligence, Science and Technology, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

140. Trump’s New Nuclear Architecture for Modernization and Arms Control

Author:
Heather Williams and Nicholas Adamopoulos
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Expanding upon the National Defense Strategy (NDS), Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno recently announced a new nuclear architecture “that addresses the threats of today, not those of a bygone era,” including nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs) and China’s growing nuclear arsenal. Facing this increasingly volatile security environment, the United States under the Trump administration must simultaneously modernize its nuclear arsenal and pursue arms control and risk reduction measures. To deter adversaries and manage escalation especially in theater conflicts, the United States may need to diversify and expand its nuclear arsenal, including by investing in nuclear-capable standoff weapons. Following this new architecture, the administration should also continue to work toward arms control agreements with both China and Russia, including risk reduction measures, such as a Presidential Nuclear Summit.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, Modernization, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America