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1. Legacy of apartheid: Misallocation of labour and firm productivity

Author:
Talent Nesongano, Carol Newman, John Rand, and Marvin Suesse
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the extent to which the historical legacy of apartheid laws explains contemporary misallocation and firm productivity in South Africa. During the apartheid era (1948–1994), job reservations, closed-shop agreements, and minimum-wage policies were implemented to restrict occupational mobility for Black workers and to insulate White employees from competition. Using digitized historical data from government gazettes combined with contemporary employer-employee panel data, we identify sectors and districts where these restrictions applied and find persistent impacts on labour allocation today. Results show that historically restricted sector-district pairs exhibit between 4 and 14% more labour misallocation compared to unaffected counterparts. In contrast, we find no significant differences in average firm productivity in treated cells, suggesting that apartheid’s legacy on production persists primarily through allocative inefficiencies rather than observable differences in average firm efficiency. These findings underscore the persistent influence of discriminatory institutions on market efficiency and highlight the importance of policies aimed at correcting historical distortions in labour allocation.
Topic:
Apartheid, Labor Issues, Discrimination, Productivity, Racism, Firms, and Persistence
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2. Beyond the state, but reinforcing it? Informal tax institutions and state legitimacy in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Author:
Vanessa van den Boogaard, Yannick Lokaya Bokasola, Gayatri Sahgal, and Caleb Jérémie Dohou
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explores the role of informal taxation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and aims to shed light on informal fiscal realities and the implications of informal tax institutions for governance and state legitimacy. Relying on mixed-methods data from household surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions across Kinshasa and North Kivu, it focuses on three areas of inquiry: the nature of informal taxation; citizens’ perceptions of formal and informal taxing authorities; and the impact of informal taxation on perceptions of the state’s legitimacy. The paper finds that, while informal taxes place a significant burden on citizens, they may support local governance by supplementing public services and reinforcing perceptions of state legitimacy, particularly in the case of customary contributions. Overall, these findings highlight the complex interplay between informal and formal institutions, challenging assumptions that informal taxation solely undermines state authority. Its insights hold critical implications for scholars of informal governance and policy makers aiming to navigate hybrid governance structures in fragile states.
Topic:
Governance, Tax Systems, Legitimacy, and Statebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

3. Climate shocks, labour market dynamics, and inequality in South Africa: Evidence from administrative tax data

Author:
Safa Awaworyi Churchill, Yohannes Kefale Mogess, and Yuvana Jaichand
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of temperature shocks on individual earnings and income inequality in South Africa. We leverage high-resolution satellite temperature data, merged with administrative tax records from the South African National Treasury and UNU-WIDER. Data from 2009 to 2022 shows that temperature shocks significantly reduce income, with a one-standard-deviation increase in average temperature associated with a 1 per cent decline in earnings and a 1.3 per cent decline in total income. However, we observe no statistically significant effects on income inequality. Temperature projections from the most recent climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are used to simulate the impact of global warming on income in the short, medium, and long term. By 2100, income is projected to decline by 5 per cent without mitigation and adaptation strategies, relative to a ‘best case’ scenario characterized by widespread adoption of renewable energy and climate change mitigation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Inequality, Labor Market, Income, Temperature, and Rainfall
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

4. Social protection in South Africa

Author:
Haroon Bhorat and Morné Oosthuizen
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
South Africa has a relatively well-developed social protection system for a middle-income country. Despite its roots in the country’s racially discriminatory past, the system has been repurposed post-apartheid to address deep poverty and severe inequality. This paper explores key characteristics of the current social protection system, highlighting its large scale and reach. Given high unemployment, the scope of social insurance is relatively limited and the social protection system is largely geared toward s social assistance. Social assistance is well-targeted and has been found to have significant beneficial impacts on poverty and inequality, but also various other socioeconomic outcomes. A key gap in the formal social assistance system is the working-age population: able-bodied working-age adults are covered only by the COVID-19 social relief of distress grant, the introduction of which has reignited calls for the implementation of basic income support despite South Africa’s significantly constrained fiscal environment.
Topic:
Poverty, Fiscal Policy, Cash Transfers, Social Assistance, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

5. Gender and intergenerational mobility: Unequal economic outcomes between siblings

Author:
Martín Leites and Joan Vilá
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of sibling sex composition as a potential explanation of the transmission of parental advantages to the next generation. The presence of a brother affects the family environment and parents’ decisions, influencing the siblings’ labour market outcomes in the long term. The results show a negative effect of approximately 2% on the permanent income of women for the presence of a younger brother. This effect does not modify the intergenerational persistence of income. Regarding mechanisms, we find evidence that the effect is amplified when households face tighter budget constraints. Moreover, it is more pronounced in households with traditional gender norms, shaping permanent income, educational choices, and motherhood decisions. These findings underscore the importance of sociocultural mechanisms in accounting for the persistence of inequality.
Topic:
Occupation, Gender Norms, Social Mobility, Gender Wage Gap, Sibling Sex Composition, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Social protection in Egypt

Author:
Ragui Assaad and Irene Selwaness
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper examines the structure of the social protection system in Egypt including its contributory and non-contributory components. It begins by examining the historical evolution of the system, its scale and reach, and its sources of financing. The book then assesses the de jure and de facto coverage of the system and the adequacy of payments for different kinds of workers and socio-economic groups. We end by examining the effectiveness of existing institutions in delivering social protection in light of the limited implementation capacity of the state, the incentive of firms to operate in the formal economy, and the potential tensions between individual participation in contributory social insurance and access to noncontributory social assistance.
Topic:
Institutions, Incentives, Social Protection, and Contributory Schemes
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

7. Mapping mobility and opportunity: How place, gender, and ethnicity shape economic outcomes in Ecuador

Author:
Paolo Brunori, Diego del Pozo, H. Xavier Jara, and Lorena Moreno
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Integrating administrative data from the civil registry, social security, and national censuses, we provide novel evidence on intergenerational income mobility and equality of opportunity among 514,890 formal workers in Ecuador. Our results show substantial intergenerational mobility (rank–rank slope 0.22, elasticity 0.17). Formal employment substantially equalizes mobility: gender differences are minimal, and ethnic disparities are compressed, although ethnic minorities face barriers at the bottom. Model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) endogenously identifies 63 spatially homogeneous areas based on intergenerational income elasticity (IGE) and highlights a large degree of variation, with elasticities ranging from 0.09 to 0.23. We complement our analysis with a Roemerian equality of opportunity framework using transformation trees, which shows that equality of opportunity is relatively limited: the worst-off earn 74% of average income, and circumstances predict 33% of total inequality. Our findings suggest that stable formal employment serves as an important equalizing mechanism for intergenerational mobility among formal sector workers, though the persistent ethnic disparities and spatial heterogeneity we observe point to remaining challenges in achieving equality of opportunity across all groups and regions in Ecuador.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Machine Learning, Social Mobility, and Equal Opportunity
Political Geography:
South America and Ecuador

8. Social protection in South Korea: Transition from the developmental to the universal welfare state

Author:
Huck-ju Kwon and Eunju Kim
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
South Korea’s social protection system has undergone a profound transformation from a developmental welfare state, in which social protection policies were subordinated to the economic development goal, to a universal welfare state. This study traces this trajectory by examining six key programmes—Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance, National Health Insurance, National Pension, Employment Insurance, the National Basic Livelihood Security Scheme, and the Basic Pension—focusing on their functions, policy design, coverage expansion, and responses to new social risks. Findings show that initial programmes targeted formal-sector workers to support industrialization, but were gradually expanded to encompass broader populations. They were sequentially extended from large enterprises to small firms and then to the general population, with contribution rates increased incrementally to ensure administrative feasibility and fiscal sustainability. Democratization and electoral competition opened policy windows for universalization, while economic crises accelerated programme inclusivity. The analysis reveals that social protection facilitated structural economic transformation while progressively recognizing social rights. However, persistent labour market dualism, population aging, and high elderly poverty underscore the need for recalibrating Korea’s welfare system toward greater inclusivity and sustainability.
Topic:
Development, Welfare, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

9. Intergenerational mobility through the lens of the elderly: New estimates from India and a comparison with existing measures

Author:
Rajdeep Chaudhuri, Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay, and Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The literature on intergenerational mobility for many countries in the world focus on household surveys that capture the education of parents and their children. While they pay particular attention to issues regarding co-residency of fathers and son, they are somewhat weaker in information on women: daughters who live with their in-laws as well as resident women outside the reproductive age group (15--49), for whom information on parents is typically missing. In this paper we examine how estimates from a nationally representative survey of the elderly in India (LASI)---that over-samples adults who are 45 years and above and contains information about their parents---compare with existing studies that provide analogous estimates. We find that while estimates using father-son pairs are similar to extant literature on India, we can provide robust estimates for pairs that involve women, as parents and daughters, due to a relatively larger sample size, especially for the period before 1970s. Thus, we contend that LASI can be especially useful for studying temporal changes in human capital investment in daughters relative to sons.
Topic:
Development, Human Capital, Survey, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

10. Does implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) increase resource revenue in developing countries?

Author:
Neerbewendé Abdoul Rachid Pafadnam
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The need for developing countries to increase their domestic revenue has always been relevant, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, which weakened their public finances. This paper analyses the dynamic treatment effects of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) implementation on resource revenue mobilization. We use a sample of 83 developing countries from 1995 to 2019, and our empirical strategy relies on the recent dynamic heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences estimator. Our results show that implementing the EITI increases resource revenue in member countries through improved governance from greater transparency, increased foreign direct investment, and extractive resource exports. These findings are robust to several robustness checks. This study highlights the significant contribution of the EITI implementation in domestic revenue mobilization and the necessity to improve transparency in natural resources management, especially as international demand for critical mineral resources is expected to grow strongly.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Tax Systems, COVID-19, Extractive Industries, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Jihadist taxation and order-making in Mali and Niger

Author:
Yvan Guichaoua and Ferdaous Bouhlel
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explores the forms of taxation practised by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State branches operating in Mali and Niger. It builds on insights from the rebel governance literature and an original conceptualisation of jihadist taxation and its effects. Unlike classic perspectives in the rebel governance literature, we argue for an ‘all at once’ approach to jihadist governance and warfare, where taxation is the beginning and the end of acts of warfare due to the fundamental political nature of Islamic taxation. Empirically, we stress the adaptiveness of jihadist groups to local circumstances, alternatively for doctrinal or pragmatic reasons.
Topic:
Governance, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Conflict, Tax Systems, and Jihadism
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, and Niger

12. Rule of law in Mozambique

Author:
Margherita Bove and Patricia Justino
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the state and evolution of the rule of law in Mozambique, focusing on key dimensions such as voice and political participation, judicial independence and accessibility, corruption, access to basic services, personal security, and property rights. Drawing on Afrobarometer surveys, voting data, and conflict records, the paper offer insights into the perceptions and experiences of Mozambican citizens. The findings indicate a deterioration in institutional trust over the past two decades, alongside declining voter turnout in general elections and increasing election-related and political violence. Despite reforms aimed at improving judicial autonomy and accessibility, the legal system remains affected by inefficiencies and regional disparities. Citizens are often subject to bribery when accessing essential public services, and perception of corruption in key institutions remains high. Concerns about fairness and integrity in the land registration process can also weaken confidence in land security and property rights protection. The paper highlights the continued challenges Mozambique faces in consolidating the rule of law, exacerbated by legacies of conflict, political instability, and uneven socioeconomic development.
Topic:
Elections, Rule of Law, Institutions, Survey, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

13. Inequality and agricultural structural change: Evidence from macro and microdata, 1950–present

Author:
Matthew Fisher-Post
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since 1950, agricultural productivity has been increasing even as labourers leave agriculture. However, while average productivity of the sector has been converging, within-sector inequality has been increasing. Agricultural income inequality is still less than overall income inequality, but it measures significantly higher when we use higher-quality and more comprehensive survey data. This means not only to observe the entirety of household farm income, but also to measure the magnitude of capital income and corporate profits in the sector. Given the likely increase in agricultural inequality during the process of structural change, I show also the extent to which social protection programmes are both insufficient and poorly targeted for rural populations.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Food Security, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. How reliable are national accounts estimates of agricultural output?

Author:
Sam Jones and Marcelo Mucocana
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Measurement errors in macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP have been widely lamented, particularly in low-income contexts. This study investigates the reliability of one component of national accounts, agricultural sector output. Focusing first on the case of Mozambique, we use a series of 12 harmonized national agricultural micro-surveys to construct estimates of gross annual output in the sector. Compared to corresponding national accounts values for the period 2002–20, the micro-survey estimates are about 50% lower. A decomposition exercise indicates this gap is primarily driven by differences in base year levels, offset by higher rates of inflation observed in survey-based producer prices. Triangulating these estimates using household budget surveys, market price, and FAO production data, we find consistent support for the agricultural micro-survey estimates, suggesting real rates of total GDP growth may have been overestimated by 1 percentage point over the period. A cross-country comparison of national accounts and FAO production data indicates positive differences between estimates of agricultural output from the two sources are not unique to Mozambique, but with larger discrepancies among lower-income countries. Systematic investment in reliable and timely agricultural statistics is essential to track progress in the sector.
Topic:
Agriculture, GDP, Macroeconomics, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

15. Social protection for Mozambique’s elderly: History, structure, and potential effectiveness

Author:
Sara Almeida, Hanna Berkel, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, and Telça Massingue
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria— programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. We estimate that in the best case with zero targeting errors, the PSSB-Elderly programme reaches two-thirds of its target group. However, significant regional disparities persist, including undercoverage in poorer regions. Additionally, we document substantial delays in payments since 2023, as well as various inaccuracies in the beneficiary registry. These findings underscore the importance of simple and robust designs for social protection in resource-constrained contexts. They also suggest that expanding programme coverage towards a quasi-universal subsidy in high-poverty locations merits serious consideration.
Topic:
Poverty, Public Policy, Pension, and Payment Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

16. Environmental Kuznets curve and green regulation

Author:
Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Prakash Loungani, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Loredana Pisano
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989– 2022). We find that (CO2) emissions respond positively to increasing income per capita, up to a turning point of approximately US$25,000. In a departure from the previous literature, we allow the relationship between economic development and emissions to depend on the stringency of environmental regulation. Our results indicate that environmental policies—and particularly market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emissions trading systems—make the EKC lower and flatter. These results are robust to several sensitivity checks, and to the use of regional (rather than global) data. Overall, our results have important policy implications, as they identify economic development as a pathway to environmental improvements. Moreover, we show that environmental policies are an essential means to achieving decoupling of emissions and economic output over the longer term.
Topic:
Climate Change, Carbon Tax, Decoupling, and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Fiscal policy and commodity price shocks in South Africa

Author:
Tumisang Loate and Vincent Dadam
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the effect of commodity price shocks in a commodity-exporting small open economy, and the role of fiscal policy in transmitting these shocks to the rest of the economy. Using South African data, we first estimate an empirical model using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. We then develop a New Keynesian small open economy with labour market hysteresis and commodity price shocks. We find that a commodity price shock typically has an expansionary effect as real GDP and employment increase, which translates into higher tax revenue. The results from our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model match the data. In addition, despite not modelling the tradable and non-tradable sectors explicitly, we find that there is an opportunity cost associated with taxing the commodity sector more than home production. This results in a higher trade deficit and government spending. Consequently, we also explore the role of countercyclical fiscal policy during a commodity boom.
Topic:
Economy, Fiscal Policy, Hysteresis, and Commodity Price Shock
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

18. Economic development and inequality of opportunity: Kuznets meets the Great Gatsby?

Author:
Francisco H. G. Ferreira, Domenico Moramarco, and Vito Peragine
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
According to the Kuznets hypothesis, inequality first tends to increase and then decrease as a country develops. Whether borne out empirically, this inverted-U Kuznets curve, as a stylized ‘fact’, has shaped the discourse on economic development and income inequality for decades. In this paper we investigate whether a similar relationship holds between national income per capita and inequality of opportunity: the inequality associated with inherited individual circumstances such as gender, ethnicity, and family background. As, empirically, inequality of opportunity is positively correlated with income inequality (a relationship known as the ‘Great Gatsby’ curve), the relationship between inequality of opportunity and ‘development’ is expected to display the same inverted-U shape. We suggest that the existence of a Kuznets inequality of opportunity curve can be the result of a ‘triangular’ relationship between development, income inequality, and inequality of opportunity. We propose a simple theoretical model that links the three concepts and describes two possible mechanisms. A numerical simulation based on the model illustrates the process. We then draw on the newly published Global Estimates of Opportunity and Mobility database to shed new light on this ‘triangular’ relationship, primarily in a cross-sectional context.
Topic:
Development, Inequality, and Opportunity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Surviving the storm: How climate-related disasters reshape tax morale in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Enrico Nichelatti and Abrams Tagem
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Climate-related disasters have increased over recent decades, with severe human and economic consequences. While research has examined their macroeconomic effects and impact on households’ income and consumption patterns, little attention has been given to their impact on tax morale—taxpayers’ intrinsic motivation to comply with tax obligations. This study fills this gap by estimating the impact of climaterelated disasters on tax morale in 26 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data from 2011 to 2021. The analysis considers six climate-related shocks: droughts, earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, storms, and wildfires. We hypothesize that the impact of climate-related disasters on tax morale depends on the specific disasters considered, and that these heterogeneous effects work through two key mechanisms: economic inequality and trust in public institutions. First, they can exacerbate inequality by reducing government revenue, increasing economic hardship for vulnerable groups (through loss of livelihoods), and eliciting unequal policy responses from government. Climate-related disasters can also reduce inequality when associated with increased economic hardship for richer households (by destroying their productive assets. Second, tax morale declines when citizens perceive government responses as inadequate or unfair; conversely, it increases if citizens perceive the government to be responding adequately. Logistic regression results confirm this heterogeneity. Droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms reduce tax morale, while earthquakes and wildfires increase it. Incorporating regional heterogeneity shows that the negative effects of disasters on tax morale are more profound in rural areas. Mediation analysis confirms inequality and institutional trust as key transmission channels. These findings underscore the need for inclusive tax policies and effective post-disaster governance to sustain revenue mobilization in sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Tax Systems, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

20. Carbon taxation and firm behaviour in emerging economies: Evidence from South Africa

Author:
Johannes Gallé, Rodrigo Oliveira, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel, and Edson Severnini
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of how firms in emerging economies respond to carbon taxation, leveraging detailed administrative data from South Africa—a potential trailblazer for other developing countries with limited state capacity amid the growing global push for carbon pricing. We examine the dynamic impacts of the carbon tax on firm-level outcomes—such as profits, sales, capital, and labour inputs—across manufacturing and mining firms, which are key sectors in the context of the carbon tax. Contrary to concerns that carbon taxes may hinder economic growth or reduce employment, our findings show no evidence of negative average impacts on firm performance or jobs. However, this overall result masks significant heterogeneity in the tax’s effects across sectors, driven by the sector-specific design elements of the South African carbon tax. Firms expecting higher effective tax rates may have intensified their use of emission-intensive machinery and depreciated capital in anticipation of the tax. This behaviour appears to stem from firms resolving regulatory uncertainty or seeking to recover costs from stranded assets.
Topic:
Employment, Economic Growth, Carbon Tax, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa