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1. Legacy of apartheid: Misallocation of labour and firm productivity

Author:
Talent Nesongano, Carol Newman, John Rand, and Marvin Suesse
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the extent to which the historical legacy of apartheid laws explains contemporary misallocation and firm productivity in South Africa. During the apartheid era (1948–1994), job reservations, closed-shop agreements, and minimum-wage policies were implemented to restrict occupational mobility for Black workers and to insulate White employees from competition. Using digitized historical data from government gazettes combined with contemporary employer-employee panel data, we identify sectors and districts where these restrictions applied and find persistent impacts on labour allocation today. Results show that historically restricted sector-district pairs exhibit between 4 and 14% more labour misallocation compared to unaffected counterparts. In contrast, we find no significant differences in average firm productivity in treated cells, suggesting that apartheid’s legacy on production persists primarily through allocative inefficiencies rather than observable differences in average firm efficiency. These findings underscore the persistent influence of discriminatory institutions on market efficiency and highlight the importance of policies aimed at correcting historical distortions in labour allocation.
Topic:
Apartheid, Labor Issues, Discrimination, Productivity, Racism, Firms, and Persistence
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2. Beyond the state, but reinforcing it? Informal tax institutions and state legitimacy in the Democratic Republic of Congo

Author:
Vanessa van den Boogaard, Yannick Lokaya Bokasola, Gayatri Sahgal, and Caleb Jérémie Dohou
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper explores the role of informal taxation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and aims to shed light on informal fiscal realities and the implications of informal tax institutions for governance and state legitimacy. Relying on mixed-methods data from household surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions across Kinshasa and North Kivu, it focuses on three areas of inquiry: the nature of informal taxation; citizens’ perceptions of formal and informal taxing authorities; and the impact of informal taxation on perceptions of the state’s legitimacy. The paper finds that, while informal taxes place a significant burden on citizens, they may support local governance by supplementing public services and reinforcing perceptions of state legitimacy, particularly in the case of customary contributions. Overall, these findings highlight the complex interplay between informal and formal institutions, challenging assumptions that informal taxation solely undermines state authority. Its insights hold critical implications for scholars of informal governance and policy makers aiming to navigate hybrid governance structures in fragile states.
Topic:
Governance, Tax Systems, Legitimacy, and Statebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

3. Climate shocks, labour market dynamics, and inequality in South Africa: Evidence from administrative tax data

Author:
Safa Awaworyi Churchill, Yohannes Kefale Mogess, and Yuvana Jaichand
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of temperature shocks on individual earnings and income inequality in South Africa. We leverage high-resolution satellite temperature data, merged with administrative tax records from the South African National Treasury and UNU-WIDER. Data from 2009 to 2022 shows that temperature shocks significantly reduce income, with a one-standard-deviation increase in average temperature associated with a 1 per cent decline in earnings and a 1.3 per cent decline in total income. However, we observe no statistically significant effects on income inequality. Temperature projections from the most recent climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are used to simulate the impact of global warming on income in the short, medium, and long term. By 2100, income is projected to decline by 5 per cent without mitigation and adaptation strategies, relative to a ‘best case’ scenario characterized by widespread adoption of renewable energy and climate change mitigation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Inequality, Labor Market, Income, Temperature, and Rainfall
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

4. Social protection in South Africa

Author:
Haroon Bhorat and Morné Oosthuizen
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
South Africa has a relatively well-developed social protection system for a middle-income country. Despite its roots in the country’s racially discriminatory past, the system has been repurposed post-apartheid to address deep poverty and severe inequality. This paper explores key characteristics of the current social protection system, highlighting its large scale and reach. Given high unemployment, the scope of social insurance is relatively limited and the social protection system is largely geared toward s social assistance. Social assistance is well-targeted and has been found to have significant beneficial impacts on poverty and inequality, but also various other socioeconomic outcomes. A key gap in the formal social assistance system is the working-age population: able-bodied working-age adults are covered only by the COVID-19 social relief of distress grant, the introduction of which has reignited calls for the implementation of basic income support despite South Africa’s significantly constrained fiscal environment.
Topic:
Poverty, Fiscal Policy, Cash Transfers, Social Assistance, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

5. Gender and intergenerational mobility: Unequal economic outcomes between siblings

Author:
Martín Leites and Joan Vilá
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of sibling sex composition as a potential explanation of the transmission of parental advantages to the next generation. The presence of a brother affects the family environment and parents’ decisions, influencing the siblings’ labour market outcomes in the long term. The results show a negative effect of approximately 2% on the permanent income of women for the presence of a younger brother. This effect does not modify the intergenerational persistence of income. Regarding mechanisms, we find evidence that the effect is amplified when households face tighter budget constraints. Moreover, it is more pronounced in households with traditional gender norms, shaping permanent income, educational choices, and motherhood decisions. These findings underscore the importance of sociocultural mechanisms in accounting for the persistence of inequality.
Topic:
Occupation, Gender Norms, Social Mobility, Gender Wage Gap, Sibling Sex Composition, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Social protection in Egypt

Author:
Ragui Assaad and Irene Selwaness
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper examines the structure of the social protection system in Egypt including its contributory and non-contributory components. It begins by examining the historical evolution of the system, its scale and reach, and its sources of financing. The book then assesses the de jure and de facto coverage of the system and the adequacy of payments for different kinds of workers and socio-economic groups. We end by examining the effectiveness of existing institutions in delivering social protection in light of the limited implementation capacity of the state, the incentive of firms to operate in the formal economy, and the potential tensions between individual participation in contributory social insurance and access to noncontributory social assistance.
Topic:
Institutions, Incentives, Social Protection, and Contributory Schemes
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

7. Mapping mobility and opportunity: How place, gender, and ethnicity shape economic outcomes in Ecuador

Author:
Paolo Brunori, Diego del Pozo, H. Xavier Jara, and Lorena Moreno
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Integrating administrative data from the civil registry, social security, and national censuses, we provide novel evidence on intergenerational income mobility and equality of opportunity among 514,890 formal workers in Ecuador. Our results show substantial intergenerational mobility (rank–rank slope 0.22, elasticity 0.17). Formal employment substantially equalizes mobility: gender differences are minimal, and ethnic disparities are compressed, although ethnic minorities face barriers at the bottom. Model-based recursive partitioning (MOB) endogenously identifies 63 spatially homogeneous areas based on intergenerational income elasticity (IGE) and highlights a large degree of variation, with elasticities ranging from 0.09 to 0.23. We complement our analysis with a Roemerian equality of opportunity framework using transformation trees, which shows that equality of opportunity is relatively limited: the worst-off earn 74% of average income, and circumstances predict 33% of total inequality. Our findings suggest that stable formal employment serves as an important equalizing mechanism for intergenerational mobility among formal sector workers, though the persistent ethnic disparities and spatial heterogeneity we observe point to remaining challenges in achieving equality of opportunity across all groups and regions in Ecuador.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Machine Learning, Social Mobility, and Equal Opportunity
Political Geography:
South America and Ecuador

8. Social protection in South Korea: Transition from the developmental to the universal welfare state

Author:
Huck-ju Kwon and Eunju Kim
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
South Korea’s social protection system has undergone a profound transformation from a developmental welfare state, in which social protection policies were subordinated to the economic development goal, to a universal welfare state. This study traces this trajectory by examining six key programmes—Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance, National Health Insurance, National Pension, Employment Insurance, the National Basic Livelihood Security Scheme, and the Basic Pension—focusing on their functions, policy design, coverage expansion, and responses to new social risks. Findings show that initial programmes targeted formal-sector workers to support industrialization, but were gradually expanded to encompass broader populations. They were sequentially extended from large enterprises to small firms and then to the general population, with contribution rates increased incrementally to ensure administrative feasibility and fiscal sustainability. Democratization and electoral competition opened policy windows for universalization, while economic crises accelerated programme inclusivity. The analysis reveals that social protection facilitated structural economic transformation while progressively recognizing social rights. However, persistent labour market dualism, population aging, and high elderly poverty underscore the need for recalibrating Korea’s welfare system toward greater inclusivity and sustainability.
Topic:
Development, Welfare, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

9. Intergenerational mobility through the lens of the elderly: New estimates from India and a comparison with existing measures

Author:
Rajdeep Chaudhuri, Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay, and Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The literature on intergenerational mobility for many countries in the world focus on household surveys that capture the education of parents and their children. While they pay particular attention to issues regarding co-residency of fathers and son, they are somewhat weaker in information on women: daughters who live with their in-laws as well as resident women outside the reproductive age group (15--49), for whom information on parents is typically missing. In this paper we examine how estimates from a nationally representative survey of the elderly in India (LASI)---that over-samples adults who are 45 years and above and contains information about their parents---compare with existing studies that provide analogous estimates. We find that while estimates using father-son pairs are similar to extant literature on India, we can provide robust estimates for pairs that involve women, as parents and daughters, due to a relatively larger sample size, especially for the period before 1970s. Thus, we contend that LASI can be especially useful for studying temporal changes in human capital investment in daughters relative to sons.
Topic:
Development, Human Capital, Survey, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

10. Does implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) increase resource revenue in developing countries?

Author:
Neerbewendé Abdoul Rachid Pafadnam
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The need for developing countries to increase their domestic revenue has always been relevant, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, which weakened their public finances. This paper analyses the dynamic treatment effects of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) implementation on resource revenue mobilization. We use a sample of 83 developing countries from 1995 to 2019, and our empirical strategy relies on the recent dynamic heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences estimator. Our results show that implementing the EITI increases resource revenue in member countries through improved governance from greater transparency, increased foreign direct investment, and extractive resource exports. These findings are robust to several robustness checks. This study highlights the significant contribution of the EITI implementation in domestic revenue mobilization and the necessity to improve transparency in natural resources management, especially as international demand for critical mineral resources is expected to grow strongly.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Tax Systems, COVID-19, Extractive Industries, and Revenue
Political Geography:
Global Focus