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282. Globalization and Catching-up in Emerging Market Economies
- Author:
- Grzegorz W. Kolodko
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The study discusses conditions and prospects for fast and durable growth in emerging market economies. In the course of history less than 30 nations have become rich and still more than 80 per cent of the world population lives in the middle and low-income countries, some of them in extreme poverty. It is true not only for the majority of economies traditionally considered as 'developing countries', but also for the new, post-socialist emerging markets. Thus the questions arise: what is the influence of globalization process on economic growth and how real are the prospects for these emerging markets to catch up with more advanced countries? What factors may contribute to sustained and rapid growth over the long term? The paper examines strategies that can help taking the contemporary wave of globalization to the advantage of fast growth of less advanced countries and hence containing the existing development gaps.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
283. The Benefits and Costs of Group Affiliation: Evidence from East Asia
- Author:
- Stijn Claessens, Joseph P.H. Fan, and Larry H.P. Lang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper investigates the benefits and associated agency costs of using internal capital markets through affiliating with groups using data of two thousand firms from nine East Asian economies between 1994-6. We find that mature and slow-growing firms with ownership structures more likely to create agency problems gain more from group affiliation, while young and high-growth firms more likely lose. Agency problems are important explanatory factors of firm value in economies outside Japan, but less so in Japan. Consistent with the literature, financially constrained firms benefit from group affiliation. Our results are robust to different time periods and estimation techniques.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia
284. The Macroeconomic Repercussions of Agricultural Shocks and their Implications for Insurance
- Author:
- Paul Collier
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper considers the macroeconomic impact of shocks to agricultural output and of negative and positive price shocks. It is shown that negative price shocks have particularly large externalities: it is estimated that the overall impact of these negative shocks on GDP may well be double their direct impact. In terms of policy, the presence of externalities justifies subsidising the provision of insurance. If insurance is not feasible, then foreign aid may be helpful. Turning to other systemic shocks, it is argued that the macroeconomic consequences of negative output shocks are far less important. Positive price shocks also have substantial macroeconomic externalities via their effect on asset demand. Appropriate central bank policy is crucial and requires a detailed understanding of asset demand changes in response to price shocks. Since this may well be unlikely, dollarization may be a better strategy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
285. Financial Regulation and Supervision in Emerging Markets. The Experience of Latin America since the Tequila Crisis
- Author:
- Barbara Stallings and Rogerio Studart
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The paper deals with changes in the regulation and supervision of the Latin American financial sector in the aftermath of the 'Tequila Crisis' of 1994–95. While it finds that both have improved, regulation and supervision cannot resolve all problems; good macroeconomic policy and performance are essential complements. This is especially true because of the procyclical nature of financial activity. The paper presents both regional data for Latin America, contrasting it with other emerging markets, and four country case studies (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico). The latter show how individual country characteristics and experiences affect the operation of the financial systems. We close with some policy recommendations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Argentina, South America, Latin America, North America, Mexico, and Chile
286. Debt Relief under the HIPC Initiative. Context and Outlook for Debt Sustainability and Resource Flows
- Author:
- Lisandro Abrego and Doris C. Ross
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses debt relief efforts by creditors to alleviate the debt burden of low- income countries. The Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative builds on traditional debt relief, and for the first time involves relief on multilateral debt. It seeks to reduce debt to sustainable levels and eliminate any debt overhang that might hinder growth and investment. It provides substantial debt relief to eligible countries by reducing their overall debt stocks by about one-half, or, together with traditional relief over time, by some 80 per cent. It lowers debt service payments of HIPCs substantially, provides room for increased social spending, and provides a solid basis for debt sustainability. The latter requires efforts by both debtors and creditors. To find poverty reduction efforts, HIPC relief is important, but much broader international support is needed as external transfers to HIPCs in the past far exceeded debt service paid. Experience has shown that external support can only be effective if it reinforces sound policies implemented by HIPCs themselves. Thus debt relief and ODA are most important not in isolation, but as help for self-help.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance
287. Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty
- Author:
- Andrew McKay
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- Fiscal policy measures are a key means by which governments can influence distribution and poverty, but in fact the relationships between fiscal policy and poverty are not well understood. The most commonly used technique for assessing the distributional impact, benefit incidence analysis, is straightforward, but applied by itself it suffers from a number of serious limitations. Assessment of the impact of fiscal policy needs to be developed in various directions, including allowing for behavioural responses and incorporating a broader range of information. In parallel with this careful attention needs to be paid to more effective monitoring of the poverty impsact of fiscal policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
288. International Bank Lending. Water Flowing Uphill?
- Author:
- John Hawkins
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- International bank lending is a major component of capital flows between advanced and emerging economies. However, in recent years these flows have been going the wrong way, like water flowing uphill. Even four years after the Asian crisis, there is a net flow of funds from emerging economies to banks in advanced economies. This paper looks at this phenomenon, starting by setting out the relevant data, and then looking at factors influencing these flows. These include both cyclical influences (both 'push' and 'pull') and structural changes within the banking industry. There is some evidence that international lenders are now discriminating more between the various emerging economies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Asia
289. Countercyclical Fiscal Policy. A Review of the Literature, Empirical Evidence and some Policy Proposals
- Author:
- Carlos Budnevich L.
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- For many emerging market economies, over reliance on monetary policy may bring worse macro results, when compared to a more balanced framework of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policy. The use of countercyclical fiscal policy requires as a precondition solvent and sustainable fiscal accounts and the re-engineering of fiscal institutions to increase the timeliness and flexibility of fiscal policy. A higher degree of tax or pension fund and/or unemployment insurance contribution flexibility may help in economies subject to significant external shocks. Automatic indexing rules to terms of trade or country risk spreads for pension contributions and interest payments on public debt may also contribute to the stabilization effort. If fiscal revenues are highly volatile, structural budget rules and commodity stabilization funds may provide the necessary framework to achieve saving (dissaving) during expansions (contractions).
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
290. Aid, Public Sector Fiscal Behaviour and Developing Country Debt
- Author:
- Mark McGillivray and Simon Feeny
- Publication Date:
- 04-2002
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper looks at public sector debt in developing countries, being concerned specifically with the relationship between aid inflows and the public sector borrowing requirement net of aid loans. After examining the public sector budget constraint and various conditions under which aid might lead to an increase in this borrowing, the paper surveys the empirical results of literature on aid and public sector fiscal behaviour. It finds that the results of a number of studies are consistent with aid leading to increases in this borrowing. Further investigation, in the form of econometric analysis of panel data, also points to this outcome. The paper then looks at a number of theoretical scenarios in which aid leads to increases in borrowing net of aid loans.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance