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2. Autonomy Curbed? Kurdish Oil Exports Hit Snags from Turkey and Baghdad
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this new edition of Tel Aviv Notes, Josh Krasna examines the implications of the closure of the pipeline that delivered oil from the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq to Turkey's Ceyhan port, focusing on the state of relations between Erbil and Baghdad.
- Topic:
- Oil, Economy, Exports, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)
3. A Saudi-Pakistani Reset: Business as Usual?
- Author:
- Joshua Albin Cheyaden
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- “Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are back on track,” declared ʿAli ʿAwadh ʿAsseri, a former Saudi ambassador to Pakistan, following Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s state visit to Riyadh in May 2021.[1] Khan’s visit ended a two-year diplomatic rift that had marred a close relationship spanning seven decades.[2] The Pakistani Prime Minister’s visit reopened vital channels of communication that had been shut for almost a year and signaled a “reset” in Saudi-Pakistani relations.[3] The rift between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia began in 2019 and peaked in 2020, while the year 2021 was marked by calls for a reset in their relations.[4] Saudi Arabia’s deepening ties with India remain at the heart of the Saudi-Pakistani split, and they are unlikely to change despite any presumptive diplomatic reset between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s increasing engagement with India as a key energy client is just one aspect of a broader transformation the Kingdom is experiencing under Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.[5] At the same time, Pakistan is in a deep economic crisis and is looking for foreign investment in major infrastructure projects to generate employment in the country.[6] In 2021, Pakistan declared its intention to pursue a foreign policy guided by its focus on economic security over its geopolitical interests.[7] Therefore, the long-term prospects for the Saudi-Pakistani reset depends on Pakistan’s ability to accept Saudi Arabia’s more even-handed India-Pakistan policy and the Saudis’ willingness to invest in an economic partnership with Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, India, and Saudi Arabia
4. Zero-Sum versus Win-Win in the Middle East
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: The Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin analyses the economic effects of having a zero-sum versus a win-win approach to problems. Increased bilateral trade since the Abraham Accords offer an example of a win-win scenario while the current Lebanese crisis shows how difficult it can be to escape a zero-sum game.
- Topic:
- Economy, Normalization, Abraham Accords, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Jordan, and United Arab Emirates
5. Russia invades Ukraine: The economic fall-out and consequences for energy markets
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin analyses the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Middle East and global energy markets.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Economy, COVID-19, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt
6. The Ukraine War and the Middle East: The Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Poorer
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin examines several economic issues occurring simultaneously in the Middle East and North Africa region mainly as a result of the Ukraine-Russia war. Higher oil prices are good for some countries and bad for others.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Middle East
7. The Turkish Economy in Flames
- Author:
- Hay Ertan Cohen Yanarocak
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- This issue of Turkeyscope focuses on the deteriorating Turkish economy and Lira's devaluation. By analyzing the Turkish government's policies at various critical junctions Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak's article highlights the negative impact of the current crisis on Turkish society.
- Topic:
- Economy, Currency, Society, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
8. Israel and Lebanon: A Bridge Over Troubled Waters?
- Author:
- Nir Boms and Stephane Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Amidst a deep political and economic crisis in Lebanon, accelerated by the Beirut port explosion in August last year, the end of 2020 witnessed a surprising round of talks regarding the demarcation of the Israeli-Lebanese maritime border. These bilateral negotiations - mediated by the U.S. and the U.N. - are the first non-security talks held between the two countries since the 1990s. Of course, Lebanon and Israel have no diplomatic relations and are technically in a state of war. The incentives for progress in the talks are strong as they could pave the way for lucrative oil and gas deals on both sides, though there still appear to be significant obstacles on the Lebanese side. Speaking with John Desrocher, the most recent U.S. mediator for the negotiations, in December 2020, Lebanese President Aoun was quoted as saying that Lebanon wants the talks to succeed because “this will strengthen stability in the South and allow us to invest in natural resources of oil and gas.”[1] Could a maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon be feasible, despite the otherwise toxic atmosphere between the two countries and the recent escalating threats of Hizballah? In a region full of surprises, this, too, might be a part of a changing reality.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Economy, Negotiation, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
9. The Impact of Covid-19 and Conflict on Middle Eastern Economies
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin assesses the economic damage caused by COVID-19 particularly in countries in the region experiencing the fallout of ongoing conflicts, and discusses several key trends that will continue to plague these hard-hit states. Ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, war, low oil prices and COVID-19 are affecting the economic situation of the Middle East. Conflicts continue in Syria, Libya and Yemen, while Iraq and Lebanon suffer from the breakdown of government authority. The region appears to be less affected by COVID-19 than others, but that may be because data on infections and deaths is incomplete.
- Topic:
- Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria
10. Changes in Oil Markets and New Technology: The Effects of COVID-19 and Climate Change
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: The Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin discusses the near and long term prospects for oil pricing, with special attention to new technologies being developed in wealthy Gulf States. In the first two months of 2021, the price of oil rose by almost 38 percent to just over $65/barrel. Was this because of rising demand, supply constraints or increased confidence? All these factors were relevant, but a glance at the OPEC basket price of oil over the past decade puts the rise in prices into perspective. At the end of February, the oil price was well below its 2011-2014 and 2018 highs both nominally terms and even more so when inflation is considered.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Science and Technology, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
11. The UAE and Israel: Developing Relations and the Challenge Ahead
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin discusses the developing economic ties between the United Arab Emirates and Israel with an emphasis on investments in the energy sector. In April 2021, the Israeli firm Delek Drilling announced plans to sell its 22 percent direct stake in the Tamar gas field to investors led by the Abu Dhabi based state-owned Mubadala Petroleum for $1.1 billion. The Tamar field has an estimated 297 billion cubic meters (bcm) of reserves. This would be by far the largest commercial deal yet between Israel and the UAE. Mubadala Petroleum is a wholly owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi state investor, Mubadala Investment Company. Its plans to move into Israel’s upstream gas sector have the backing of the UAE and Israeli governments. In March 2021, the UAE announced the establishment of a $10 billion fund to invest in energy and other strategic sectors of the Israeli economy. According to the official statement, the UAE will invest in and with Israel in sectors including energy, manufacturing, water, space, healthcare, and agro-tech. The investment fund will support development initiatives to promote regional economic cooperation between the two countries. Funding will come from government and private sector institutions and the Delek deal is part of this framework,
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Treaties and Agreements, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Arab Emirates
12. The Forgotten Crises in the Gulf: Electricity and Water in Iran and Iraq
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin analyses the causes of shortages in electricity and water supplies in the Persian Gulf region. In Iraq and Iran, in particular, spontaneous protests have gained momentum this summer as a result of these critical problems. The Gulf is well known for its oil and gas resources, but the lack of water may be its outstanding feature. Between 2000 and 2020, the population of the Gulf states rose by almost 50 percent but the supply of fresh water from sources other than desalination fell. This edition of Iqtisadi examines recent developments in the Gulf with an emphasis on the water crisis. The oil producers in the Gulf are divided into two groups: the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman – and Iran plus Iraq. The GCC states are all monarchies while Iran and Iraq are republics. The differences between the two groups are not only constitutional and political, but also socio-economic.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Water, Economy, and Electricity
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Persian Gulf, and Gulf Nations
13. How the Taliban Re-took Afghanistan
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin discusses the broader historical, political and economic context for the Taliban's recent return to power in Afghanistan. On 15 August 2021, Taliban forces entered the Afghan capital, Kabul, as the government collapsed and the president, Ashraf Ghani, fled the country. This brought an end to the twenty-year campaign waged by the US and its allies to remake the country. The speed with which the Afghan army collapsed shocked many, but others, who understood developments in the country better, were not surprised. On 31 August, the last US forces left the country.
- Topic:
- Politics, Taliban, Economy, and History
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
14. No Boundaries – The Syrian-Lebanese Drug Economy
- Author:
- Moran Levanoni
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi, Dr. Moran Levanoni analyzes how the Syrian-Lebanese border area has become one of the most important centers for the production of illegal drugs in the Middle East. Hezbollah's key role in the Middle East drug trade is contextualized within its global empire that includes parts of South America, Africa, and Eurasia.
- Topic:
- Economy, Hezbollah, Drugs, and Illicit Financial Flows
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
15. Sudan’s Predicament and the Israeli Connection
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin delves into the structural factors that led to protests and the overthrow of Sudan's longtime dictator, Omar al-Bashir, in 2019. This background along with more recent developments, explains why some of the leadership in Sudan today believe engagement with Israel makes good economic sense.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economy, and Omar al-Bashir
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Middle East, and Israel
16. Coronavirus, Oil and the Middle East
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin analyzes several of the key economic effects on the Middle East and North Africa caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the sudden drop in oil prices.
- Topic:
- Oil, Economy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
17. The Boomerang Effect: How Syria brought down Lebanon, which is bringing down Syria
- Author:
- Joel Parker
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our June issue of Iqtisadi, Joel D. Parker examines the connection between the economic crises in Lebanon and Syria in light of new sanctions imposed by the United States.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Economy, Syrian War, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, North America, and United States of America
18. Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria: sinking together?
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In this issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin analyses the underlying factors in the economic problems facing Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and highlights losses in personal income among the populations in these countries that have added fuel to social protests in recent months.
- Topic:
- GDP, Economy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
19. Coronavirus in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Certain Economic Disaster, Possible Pandemic
- Author:
- Rina Bassist
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- For our latest issue of Ifriqiya, Rina Bassist discusses the immediate economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sub-Saharan Africa, and raises awareness of the threat of a prolonged crisis both for wealthier countries and for the poorest countries in that region.
- Topic:
- Economy, Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa
20. Stormy Waters in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Hay Eytan, Cohen Yanarocak, Shaul Chorev, and Benny Spanier
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Benny Spanier, Shaul Chorev, and Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak explain the politics of Turkey's agreement with Libya on the contours of an Exclusive Economic Zone in the Eastern Mediterranean.
- Topic:
- Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Economy, and Special Economic Zones
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Libya, North Africa, and Mediterranean